It’s been about a month into the all-important summer box office season, and already, there is a noticeable boost in optimism.
I wrote last week about how the massive debut of Walt Disney Co. and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” was a promising sign; many analysts and movie theater operators believe the summer’s theatrical revenue could finally reach pre-pandemic levels.
The cinema business has been propelled by the likes of Paramount Pictures and Miramax‘s “Scary Movie,” Universal Pictures’ “Disclosure Day” and, of course, A24’s “Backrooms” and Focus Features’ “Obsession.”
With more potential blockbusters on the way, my colleagues David Viramontes, audience editor for arts and entertainment, and Cerys Davies, who covers the business of the entertainment industry, joined me to give our best predictions for how this summer will shape up.
What will be the biggest movie of the summer?
Masunaga: After seeing how family movies — specifically, PG-rated films — were the winners of the last two years, I think we’ll be seeing “Toy Story 5” emerge at the top. The movie has already brought in more than $585 million worldwide less than two weeks after it opened, and if its billion-dollar-grossing predecessors are any indication, this franchise may still have a long life at the box office.
Viramontes: After the R-rated, three-hour drama “Oppenheimer” made nearly $1 billion at the worldwide box office in 2023, it would be professional malpractice not to pick Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” as the biggest movie of the summer — and possibly the year. 70-millimeter IMAX screenings were sold out a year in advance and premium format tickets are still hard to come by in Los Angeles. Not to mention tentpole movies like this attract repeat viewings and even encourage viewers to seek out screenings in every format. And we haven’t even talked about how the film boasts one of the most stacked casts in recent history.
Davies: In an effort to play it safe, I’m going to pick a family movie and bet on “Toy Story 5.” Think about the dog days of summer — when the air gets heavy, a sense of inexplicable boredom takes over and it’s almost too hot to do anything. Deep down, you know the only reprieve is sitting in the comfort of your local theater chain’s air conditioning. But, at this point, you already saw “The Odyssey” with all your friends at the earliest available IMAX showing. What else will scratch that box office itch? I’m willing to bet it’ll be none other than the familiar faces of Woody, Jessie and Buzz Lightyear, as they fend off technology in their home.
Which movie’s marketing campaign will be the talk of the summer?
Masunaga: The marketing for “The Odyssey” has been less overt than that of other summer releases, giant Trojan horse in Venice Beach notwithstanding. But a film helmed by Nolan and starring a plethora of A-list actors basically markets itself. After all, both official trailers for the film have garnered more than 30 million views on YouTube.
Viramontes: I’m prepared for Spider-Man to be everywhere. From buses and billboards to talk shows and TikTok, the movie will reach full saturation. While “Brand New Day’s” marketing campaign hasn’t reached fever pitch just yet, I’m prepared to be inundated with activations, posters and commercials for the four-quadrant fave that’s poised to be one of Marvel’s biggest successes in years.
Davies: A massive orange monster named Irene with dozens of eyeballs has nearly engulfed the historic Carney’s restaurant on Sunset. A giant inflatable “Rich” minion, sporting a goatee and a blinged out chain, popped up on Fairfax. And minions have taken over Wendy’s frosty machines with a new banana flavor. At this point, Universal and Illumination could put a minion on every Los Angeles street corner, and I wouldn’t grow tired of them. (The ominous, goggle-wearing eye overlooking the 101 freeway just isn’t enough.)
What will be the biggest wild card of the summer?
Masunaga: The biopic “Young Washington” could make waves. Distributed by Provo, Utah-based Angel Studios, the movie has the backing of the studio’s 2 million Angel Guild members, who determine its slate and get other perks, including free movie tickets. That support proved crucial for 2023’s “Sound of Freedom,” which ended up grossing more than $250 million worldwide, and could end up being a factor here, too.
Viramontes: “The End of Oak Street” has been teasing a dinosaur adventure in trailers, but can the mystery box movie starring Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor attract audiences? There’s also potential counter programming to blockbuster hopefuls dotted throughout the summer with “Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma.” But I’m putting my money on “Evil Dead Burn.” Horror movies put butts in seats, and this summer doesn’t have many other straight-down-the-middle scares in store for audiences.
Davies: There’s an Anthony Bourdain biopic called “Tony” hitting theaters in August. These days, it feels like Hollywood will make a biopic about just anyone, but something about seeing Dominic Sessa channel the chef’s undying passion for food and effortless swag on screen seems irresistible. Plus today’s audiences love stories about intense kitchens (“The Bear”) and debatable biopics (“Michael”) — let’s see what happens when the two marry.
Both Warner Bros.-owned DC Studios’ “Supergirl” and Sony Pictures‘ “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” are part of this summer’s lineup. Will we see a turnaround from the recent superhero fatigue at the box office?
Masunaga: This past weekend marked a disappointing debut for “Supergirl,” which brought in just $37.1 million in the U.S. and Canada and about $62.6 million worldwide on a reported budget of $170 million. Box office analysts had been expecting a domestic opening of about $47 million to $50 million. On the other hand, pre-sales for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” have been extremely strong. Not every superhero movie prints money anymore, so even with a potentially big haul for “Spider-Man,” I don’t know that it’ll signify a complete turnaround for the genre as a whole.
Viramontes: If there’s any superhero with enough pull to rescue the genre from fatigue after “Supergirl’s” poor performance, it’s your friendly neighborhood box office king Spider-Man.
Davies: Tom Holland’s Spider-Man definitely has the potential to cure superhero fatigue, at least for a few months. But as soon as the internet’s favorite couple, Zendaya and Holland, stop walking red carpets and doing press together, audiences are likely to put superhero movies on the back burner once again.
Analysts and theater owners have predicted that this summer’s box office will reach pre-pandemic levels. Will that momentum continue for the rest of the year?
Masunaga: Yes. The lineup of movies this year is more plentiful and varied than in years past, and with massive blockbusters slated for the holiday season, I think it’s very possible we could see a year-end domestic box office total of $9 billion or more.
Viramontes: Yes. We’ll have an action horror in September with “Resident Evil,” Zach Cregger’s follow-up to “Weapons.” In October, Tom Cruise’s long-awaited “Digger” might hit pay dirt. Following that in November is the new “Hunger Games” movie, “Sunrise on the Reaping.” And I don’t even have to mention “Avengers: Doomsday” and “Dune: Part Three,” the juggernauts waiting for us in December, do I?
Davies: Given the overall excitement from audiences of all ages and the variety this summer’s box office has to offer, this season will definitely be the one to do it. When Christopher Nolan, Spider-Man, the minions and the toys from “Toy Story” join forces, there’s no stopping them.
“The Pitt” and its economic effect on California
As film and TV production has fled the Golden State in search of cheaper locales, HBO Max medical drama “The Pitt” stands out as a major contributor to California’s economy.
My colleague Meg James wrote about the economic impact of the show, which films almost entirely on the Warner Bros. lot in Burbank and has provided jobs for about 1,000 people. The show’s first season alone contributed $125 million to California’s gross domestic product, according to an estimate from Oxford Economics.
“We’re old men who didn’t want to go away from our homes any longer,” series star Noah Wyle, who also serves as an executive producer and writer on the show, said, half-joking. “We’ve all been plying our trades out of state, chasing tax credits and being away from our families for a really long time.”
Stuff We Wrote
Film shoots
Number of the week
Disney and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” continued its dominance this weekend, pulling in $70 million in the U.S. and Canada to stay on top at the box office.
The animated film has now grossed more than $585 million worldwide in less than two weeks. The haul for “Toy Story 5” helped push Disney past the $3-billion mark at the global box office, making it the first studio so far this year to hit that milestone.
What I’m watching
I feel like I’m always catching up on shows, and this week was no exception. I’m just now starting Season 2 of Netflix’s “A Man on the Inside,” which continues the hilarious exploits of retired engineering professor-turned-private-investigator Charles, played by Ted Danson. As a fan of “The Good Place,” I’ve loved the similar humor of this latest Michael Schur show.