Eurozone inflation confirmed at 2.8%: Will it be enough for the ECB to pause?
Eurostat’s final figures, published on Friday, showed annual inflation easing from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June, the first decline since prices began accelerating in January, less than a week before the ECB’s Governing Council announces its policy decision on Thursday and decides whether June’s first interest-rate hike in nearly three years should be followed by another increase.
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The details of the release lean towards a pause.
Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, slowed from 2.6% to 2.4%, energy inflation cooled from 10.8% to 8.5% and services eased from 3.5% to 3.2%, with the headline rate falling in 22 of the EU’s 27 member states.
Among the eurozone’s big four economies, Germany stood at 2.4%, France at 2%, Italy at 3% and Spain at 3.6%.
The numbers matter because of what came before.
In June, the ECB lifted its deposit facility rate from 2% to 2.25%, its first increase in nearly three years, after the war in Iran drove eurozone inflation to 3.2% in May, the highest reading since September 2023.
A reignited Iran war
The complication is that the shock behind that hike has returned.
Oil neared $120 a barrel in March before sliding to around $72 following an interim peace agreement at the end of June, but the truce has frayed badly this month.
The US and Iran have exchanged fresh strikes, Tehran has attacked ships and threatened regional energy exports, and Washington has reimposed sanctions and stepped up its naval blockade, pushing Brent crude back up to $87 a barrel on Friday.
That resurgence has revived the possibility of a surprise hike on Thursday, according to ING, although the bank still expects a hold, with a second increase more realistic in September.
Renewed conflict involving Iran
The complication is that the shock behind that June rate hike has returned.
Oil prices neared $120 a barrel in March before sliding to around $72 following an interim peace agreement at the end of June. However, the truce has frayed badly this month.
The United States and Iran have exchanged fresh strikes, Tehran has attacked commercial shipping and threatened regional energy exports, while Washington has reimposed sanctions and tightened its naval blockade, pushing Brent crude back up to $87 a barrel on Friday.
The renewed escalation has revived the possibility of a surprise rate hike on Thursday, according to ING, although the bank still expects the ECB to hold rates steady, viewing a second increase as more likely in September.
July is also not a forecasting meeting, giving policymakers cover to wait for updated economic projections before taking further action.
What Lagarde has signalled
Speaking at the ECB’s Sintra forum a few weeks ago, ECB President Christine Lagarde insisted June’s rate hike was not an “insurance hike” but a response to a genuine inflation problem. She noted that the ECB’s projections showed inflation returning to its 2% target only in late 2027, and only if monetary policy was tightened further.
Lagarde also refused to pre-commit to a policy path, saying “forward guidance is not in the cards” and that decisions would continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by incoming economic data.
The ECB remains the only major Western central bank to have actually pulled the trigger.
The US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in June, at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair, although his hawkish tone unsettled markets.
The Bank of England also left its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote, with two policymakers preferring an increase to 4.0%, while the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1.0%.
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Iran rushed billions in oil exports before U.S. reimposed blockade: WSJ (CO1:COM:Commodity)
Majid Saeedi/Getty Images News
Iran accelerated oil exports through Asia after the United States temporarily eased restrictions in mid-June, allowing the country to move an estimated 70 million barrels of crude before sanctions were reinstated, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, citing analysts and shipping data.
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Basic income will be needed as AI takes our jobs – Roubini
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Economist Nouriel Roubini said universal basic income will eventually be needed as artificial intelligence and robots replace a growing share of the workforce over the next two decades.
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U.S. strikes Iran’s Revolutionary Guard after attack kills U.S. troops in Jordan
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The U.S. military launched airstrikes targeting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Sunday in retaliation for an attack in Jordan that killed two American service members and wounded four others, further escalating the conflict between Washington and Tehran.
U.S. Central Command
Iran says it’s suspending ceasefire commitments with U.S.
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F.N.B. forecasts $375M-$385M Q3 net interest income while revising full-year NII to $1.485B-$1.515B (NYSE:FNB)
Earnings Call Insights: F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) Q2 2026
Management View
- “F.N.B.’s second quarter earnings per share grew 17% year-over-year to $0.42 with net income of $149 million.” (Chairman, President & CEO Vincent J. Delie)
- “Our results included another quarter of
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Fifth Third outlines $8.74B-$8.80B 2026 NII outlook ahead of Labor Day conversion (NYSE:FITB)
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Management View
- “Today, we reported earnings per share of $0.83 or $1.02, excluding certain items outlined on Page 2 of the release.” (Chairman, CEO & President Timothy Spence)
- “Tangible book value
Seeking Alpha’s Disclaimer: This article was automatically generated by an AI tool based on content available on the Seeking Alpha website, and has not been curated or reviewed by humans. Due to inherent limitations in using AI-based tools, the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such articles cannot be guaranteed. This article is intended for informational purposes only. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.
Butterfield Readies CIBC Caribbean Purchase
The Bermuda bank agrees to buy a 91.7% stake in CIBC Caribbean Bank for $1.8 billion, creating a regional giant.
This article appears in the July/August issue of Global Finance Magazine.
Butterfield Group has agreed to acquire a 91.7% stake in CIBC Caribbean Bank Limited for $1.8 billion — $1.09 billion in cash and the remainder in shares — in a deal that would create one of the region’s largest banking groups.
This is at least the third time in the past seven years that the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) has attempted to sell some of its Caribbean interests.
“This deal combines two storied, complementary banks with significant local scale advantages and time-honored customer relationships in their respective core jurisdictions,” said Michael Collins, Butterfield’s chairman and chief executive, in a statement.
The new banking group will hold an estimated $29 billion in assets. The Bermuda-based Butterfield Group—formerly The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited—also operates in The Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, the Channel Islands, Singapore, Switzerland, and the U.K. CIBC has a presence in 10 countries and is based in Barbados.
CIBC will hold about 22% of the enlarged Butterfield Group and will have the right to appoint two directors to the board.
The bank’s top brass says the deal underscores a shift in the Caribbean financial sector.
“This is really a change in Butterfield’s positioning because it now picks up both a retail and a business portfolio that spans the entire gamut of the region, and it probably could make it the biggest bank in the region,” former Butterfield CEO Mariano Browne told the Trinidad and Tobago Guardian.
Butterfield has promised to maintain CIBC’s Barbados office. Customers should expect no immediate changes. Existing branches will remain open, and clients can expect improved cross-border payments and expanded consumer, digital, and merchant banking.
The deal, pending regulatory approval, should close in the first half of 2027.
In 2018, CIBC attempted to list FirstCaribbean on U.S. stock markets to raise up to $240 million but withdrew the application less than a month later after failing to drum up sufficient investor interest. A 2019 deal to sell 66.7% of CIBC to GNB Financial Group for $797 million fell through after the deal failed to secure regulatory approval.
Nic Wirtz is a contributing writer based in Guatemala.
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Apple surpasses Nvidia as world’s most valuable company
By Greta Ruffino with AFP
Published on •Updated
Apple reclaimed the title of the world’s most valuable company on Friday, overtaking Nvidia as investors grew more confident in its AI strategy.
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Shares of Nvidia were down as much as four percent as worries about the valuation of artificial intelligence equities dogged the market, giving the company a valuation of about $4.8 trillion (€4.2 trillion), slightly below Apple’s $4.9 trillion (€4.3 trillion).
The company later clawed back the losses, with Apple and Nvidia trading neck and neck for the top spot.
Nvidia’s stock has soared more than 1,200% since January 2023, climbing from a split-adjusted $14.86 (€13.00) to about $205 (€179.30) by mid-July 2026. The company carried out a 10-for-1 stock split in June 2024.
Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company in 2025, driven by the AI boom sparked by the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.
Originally designed for video games, Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) have become the core hardware used in AI data centres to train large language models developed by companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic and Google.
In recent weeks, however, analysts have begun questioning whether the massive investments in Nvidia’s chips and software will pay off as new AI products reach the market.
Those questions have intensified as ChatGPT-maker OpenAI and rival Anthropic, two of the most valuable private companies in history, having filed to go public.
Meanwhile, investor confidence in Apple confidence in Apple has strengthened in recent weeks, pushing its shares up about 20% since late June. Apple also unveiled a redesigned version of Siri, receiving broadly positive early reviews.
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Gold Purchases Accelerate as Dollar Confidence Wanes
Central banks are scaling back on the dollar as institutional bullion buying climbs to record highs.
In the World Gold Council’s (WGC) latest annual survey of central banks, 83% of respondents expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year. That’s up from 76% in 2025. This surge in demand is due to the U.S. dollar’s waning preeminence in global reserves and the growing number of international crises.
Almost three-quarters of central banks predict a lower share of global reserves held in greenbacks over the next five years, and a record 45% say they plan to increase their institutional bullion reserves over the next 12 months, up from 43% last year.
Gold Overtakes Bonds as Ultimate Safe Haven
Gold recently overtook U.S. government bonds as the world’s top reserve asset, according to the June 16 report. The survey polled 76 central banks between February and May; most responses were received after the recent Mideast hostilities began. Greenbacks accounted for 42% of total reported reserves, including gold and foreign exchange, in the third quarter of last year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
A record 90% of those polled by the WGC say gold’s performance during volatile periods is a key reason for acquiring more of it. Similarly, 82% say they value gold for portfolio diversification, and 84% value it as a long-term store of value.
The metal’s role in hedging geopolitical risk is especially important among central bankers in developing and emerging markets, with 85% citing this factor.
Half of respondents seeking to procure more gold say they will finance such purchases through domestic purchase programs denominated in local currency, while 38% say they would buy more gold by selling existing reserve assets.
Global Shift in Gold Storage Strategy
Central banks also appear to be rethinking their gold storage strategy. The survey found that 9% of central banks increased domestic storage over the past year, while 10% say they diversified their overseas storage locations.
The Bank of England remains the most popular gold storage location, cited by 57% of respondents, while the Swiss National Bank saw a sharp drop in preference, from 12% to 6% in 2025.
In the past four years, central banks have, on average, acquired 1,000 tonnes of gold annually, double the 500-tonne average of the previous decade. Mainland China’s bullion stores totaled 74.96 million troy ounces in late May, up 320,000 from April, marking the 19th consecutive month of increase, according to the People’s Bank of China.
Ajay Shamdasani is a contributing writer based in Hong Kong.