predictions

It’s been about a month into the all-important summer box office season, and already, there is a noticeable boost in optimism.

I wrote last week about how the massive debut of Walt Disney Co. and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” was a promising sign; many analysts and movie theater operators believe the summer’s theatrical revenue could finally reach pre-pandemic levels.

The cinema business has been propelled by the likes of Paramount Pictures and Miramax‘s “Scary Movie,” Universal Pictures’ “Disclosure Day” and, of course, A24’s “Backrooms” and Focus Features’ “Obsession.”

With more potential blockbusters on the way, my colleagues David Viramontes, audience editor for arts and entertainment, and Cerys Davies, who covers the business of the entertainment industry, joined me to give our best predictions for how this summer will shape up.

What will be the biggest movie of the summer?

Masunaga: After seeing how family movies — specifically, PG-rated films — were the winners of the last two years, I think we’ll be seeing “Toy Story 5” emerge at the top. The movie has already brought in more than $585 million worldwide less than two weeks after it opened, and if its billion-dollar-grossing predecessors are any indication, this franchise may still have a long life at the box office.

Viramontes: After the R-rated, three-hour drama “Oppenheimer” made nearly $1 billion at the worldwide box office in 2023, it would be professional malpractice not to pick Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” as the biggest movie of the summer — and possibly the year. 70-millimeter IMAX screenings were sold out a year in advance and premium format tickets are still hard to come by in Los Angeles. Not to mention tentpole movies like this attract repeat viewings and even encourage viewers to seek out screenings in every format. And we haven’t even talked about how the film boasts one of the most stacked casts in recent history.

Davies: In an effort to play it safe, I’m going to pick a family movie and bet on “Toy Story 5.” Think about the dog days of summer — when the air gets heavy, a sense of inexplicable boredom takes over and it’s almost too hot to do anything. Deep down, you know the only reprieve is sitting in the comfort of your local theater chain’s air conditioning. But, at this point, you already saw “The Odyssey” with all your friends at the earliest available IMAX showing. What else will scratch that box office itch? I’m willing to bet it’ll be none other than the familiar faces of Woody, Jessie and Buzz Lightyear, as they fend off technology in their home.

Which movie’s marketing campaign will be the talk of the summer?

Masunaga: The marketing for “The Odyssey” has been less overt than that of other summer releases, giant Trojan horse in Venice Beach notwithstanding. But a film helmed by Nolan and starring a plethora of A-list actors basically markets itself. After all, both official trailers for the film have garnered more than 30 million views on YouTube.

Viramontes: I’m prepared for Spider-Man to be everywhere. From buses and billboards to talk shows and TikTok, the movie will reach full saturation. While “Brand New Day’s” marketing campaign hasn’t reached fever pitch just yet, I’m prepared to be inundated with activations, posters and commercials for the four-quadrant fave that’s poised to be one of Marvel’s biggest successes in years.

Davies: A massive orange monster named Irene with dozens of eyeballs has nearly engulfed the historic Carney’s restaurant on Sunset. A giant inflatable “Rich” minion, sporting a goatee and a blinged out chain, popped up on Fairfax. And minions have taken over Wendy’s frosty machines with a new banana flavor. At this point, Universal and Illumination could put a minion on every Los Angeles street corner, and I wouldn’t grow tired of them. (The ominous, goggle-wearing eye overlooking the 101 freeway just isn’t enough.)

What will be the biggest wild card of the summer?

Masunaga: The biopic “Young Washington” could make waves. Distributed by Provo, Utah-based Angel Studios, the movie has the backing of the studio’s 2 million Angel Guild members, who determine its slate and get other perks, including free movie tickets. That support proved crucial for 2023’s “Sound of Freedom,” which ended up grossing more than $250 million worldwide, and could end up being a factor here, too.

Viramontes: “The End of Oak Street” has been teasing a dinosaur adventure in trailers, but can the mystery box movie starring Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor attract audiences? There’s also potential counter programming to blockbuster hopefuls dotted throughout the summer with “Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma.” But I’m putting my money on “Evil Dead Burn.” Horror movies put butts in seats, and this summer doesn’t have many other straight-down-the-middle scares in store for audiences.

Davies: There’s an Anthony Bourdain biopic called “Tony” hitting theaters in August. These days, it feels like Hollywood will make a biopic about just anyone, but something about seeing Dominic Sessa channel the chef’s undying passion for food and effortless swag on screen seems irresistible. Plus today’s audiences love stories about intense kitchens (“The Bear”) and debatable biopics (“Michael”) — let’s see what happens when the two marry.

Both Warner Bros.-owned DC Studios’ “Supergirl” and Sony Pictures‘ “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” are part of this summer’s lineup. Will we see a turnaround from the recent superhero fatigue at the box office?

Masunaga: This past weekend marked a disappointing debut for “Supergirl,” which brought in just $37.1 million in the U.S. and Canada and about $62.6 million worldwide on a reported budget of $170 million. Box office analysts had been expecting a domestic opening of about $47 million to $50 million. On the other hand, pre-sales for “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” have been extremely strong. Not every superhero movie prints money anymore, so even with a potentially big haul for “Spider-Man,” I don’t know that it’ll signify a complete turnaround for the genre as a whole.

Viramontes: If there’s any superhero with enough pull to rescue the genre from fatigue after “Supergirl’s” poor performance, it’s your friendly neighborhood box office king Spider-Man.

Davies: Tom Holland’s Spider-Man definitely has the potential to cure superhero fatigue, at least for a few months. But as soon as the internet’s favorite couple, Zendaya and Holland, stop walking red carpets and doing press together, audiences are likely to put superhero movies on the back burner once again.

Analysts and theater owners have predicted that this summer’s box office will reach pre-pandemic levels. Will that momentum continue for the rest of the year?

Masunaga: Yes. The lineup of movies this year is more plentiful and varied than in years past, and with massive blockbusters slated for the holiday season, I think it’s very possible we could see a year-end domestic box office total of $9 billion or more.

Viramontes: Yes. We’ll have an action horror in September with “Resident Evil,” Zach Cregger’s follow-up to “Weapons.” In October, Tom Cruise’s long-awaited “Digger” might hit pay dirt. Following that in November is the new “Hunger Games” movie, “Sunrise on the Reaping.” And I don’t even have to mention “Avengers: Doomsday” and “Dune: Part Three,” the juggernauts waiting for us in December, do I?

Davies: Given the overall excitement from audiences of all ages and the variety this summer’s box office has to offer, this season will definitely be the one to do it. When Christopher Nolan, Spider-Man, the minions and the toys from “Toy Story” join forces, there’s no stopping them.

“The Pitt” and its economic effect on California

As film and TV production has fled the Golden State in search of cheaper locales, HBO Max medical drama “The Pitt” stands out as a major contributor to California’s economy.

My colleague Meg James wrote about the economic impact of the show, which films almost entirely on the Warner Bros. lot in Burbank and has provided jobs for about 1,000 people. The show’s first season alone contributed $125 million to California’s gross domestic product, according to an estimate from Oxford Economics.

“We’re old men who didn’t want to go away from our homes any longer,” series star Noah Wyle, who also serves as an executive producer and writer on the show, said, half-joking. “We’ve all been plying our trades out of state, chasing tax credits and being away from our families for a really long time.”

Stuff We Wrote

Film shoots

Number of the week

Disney and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” continued its dominance this weekend, pulling in $70 million in the U.S. and Canada to stay on top at the box office.

The animated film has now grossed more than $585 million worldwide in less than two weeks. The haul for “Toy Story 5” helped push Disney past the $3-billion mark at the global box office, making it the first studio so far this year to hit that milestone.

What I’m watching

I feel like I’m always catching up on shows, and this week was no exception. I’m just now starting Season 2 of Netflix’s “A Man on the Inside,” which continues the hilarious exploits of retired engineering professor-turned-private-investigator Charles, played by Ted Danson. As a fan of “The Good Place,” I’ve loved the similar humor of this latest Michael Schur show.

The Round of 32 has already delivered shocks, shootouts and scenes that will live long in World Cup memory.

After Paraguay stunned Germany and Morocco sent the Netherlands home on penalties, Tuesday brings three more games, with France, Norway and co-hosts Mexico all looking to avoid becoming the next big casualty.

Ivory Coast face Norway, France meet Sweden and Mexico take on Ecuador as three more places in the last 16 are decided.

Here is what we know:

What is Tuesday’s schedule?

• Ivory Coast vs Norway (noon/17:00 GMT) at Dallas Stadium, Texas, in the US
• France vs Sweden (5pm/21:00 GMT) at New York/New Jersey Stadium in the US
• Mexico vs Ecuador (7pm/02:00 GMT on Wednesday) at Mexico City Stadium in Mexico

What is the prediction for Ivory Coast vs Norway?

This will be the first competitive meeting between Ivory Coast and Norway.

Ivory Coast have found European opposition difficult at the World Cup while Norway have traditionally fared well against African teams. They have lost only two of their 19 meetings with CAF nations across all competitions.

The Opta supercomputer calculates Norway as the clear favourites to progress.

Across 25,000 pre-match simulations, Norway won in normal time 56.1 percent of the time, while Ivory Coast claimed victory in 21.6 percent. A draw after 90 minutes, sending the tie to extra time, occurred in 22.3 percent of simulations.

Norway are also strongly backed to reach the Round of 16 and equal their best-ever World Cup finish, while Ivory Coast will need to produce one of the tournament’s biggest upsets to keep their campaign alive.

What is the prediction for France vs Sweden?

France and Sweden are familiar opponents, having met 23 times across all competitions. France hold the advantage with 12 wins to Sweden’s six, while five matches have ended level.

Despite that long history, this will be their first-ever meeting at a FIFA World Cup.

The Opta supercomputer gives France a commanding edge heading into the Round of 32.

Across 25,000 pre-match simulations, France won in normal time 75.1 percent of the time, underlining their status as one of the tournament favourites. Sweden were victorious in just 9.5 percent of simulations, while 15.4 percent of matches were level after 90 minutes and required extra time or penalties.

What is the prediction for Mexico vs Ecuador?

Mexico and Ecuador have met only once before at the FIFA World Cup, with El Tri claiming a 2-1 victory during the group stage of the 2002 tournament.

Recent meetings have been far more evenly matched. The sides are unbeaten against each other in their last three encounters, with all three ending in draws, raising the possibility that this Round of 32 tie could be decided beyond 90 minutes.

The Opta supercomputer gives the tournament co-hosts the edge but expects a competitive contest.

Across 25,000 pre-match simulations, Mexico won in normal time 47.1 percent of the time, compared with 23.7 percent for Ecuador. A draw after 90 minutes occurred in 29.2 percent of simulations, making extra time a realistic possibility.

Factoring in extra time and penalties, Mexico’s chances of reaching the Round of 16 rise to 61 percent, while Ecuador are given a 38.9 percent probability of progressing.

Which teams have advanced to the Round of 16 and who has been eliminated?

The tournament has now moved into the Round of 32.  So far, these teams have advanced to the Round of 16:

• Canada (defeated South Africa 1-0)
• Brazil (defeated Japan 2-1)
• Paraguay (defeated Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw)
• Morocco (defeated the Netherlands on penalties after a 1-1 draw)

What else is happening?

Morocco stuns Netherlands on penalties

Morocco beat the Netherlands 3-2 in a penalty shootout to reach the FIFA World Cup last 16 after a dramatic 1-1 draw following extra time in Monterrey.

Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou was the hero, saving Crysencio Summerville’s penalty before Ismael Saibari fired home the decisive spot-kick to send Morocco through.

Morocco will now face Canada in the Round of 16 in Houston on Saturday.

The match appeared to be heading for a Dutch victory after Cody Gakpo, playing just days after he and his partner announced the loss of their unborn child, put the Netherlands ahead midway through the second half.

Gakpo’s emotional World Cup goal

Cody Gakpo broke down in tears after scoring for the Netherlands against Morocco, just two days after he and his partner announced the loss of their unborn child.

The forward chose to remain with the squad despite the tragedy and received a standing ovation from Dutch fans when he was substituted in extra time.

Saibari celebrates with his mum

A heartwarming moment goes viral as Ismael Saibari, who scored the decisive penalty kick against Netherlands, celebrates Morocco’s big win with his mother on the pitch.

Germany suffers shock early exit

Germany’s campaign came to a stunning end on Monday as Paraguay pulled off one of the greatest upsets in tournament history, winning a dramatic Round of 32 tie on penalties.

Paraguay took a deserved 1-0 lead into half-time after Julio Enciso headed home from Matias Galarza’s cross in the 42nd minute.

Germany responded eight minutes into the second half when Kai Havertz glanced in Florian Wirtz’s cross to level the match at 1-1.

With neither side able to find a winner in extra time, the tie went to penalties. Havertz missed Germany’s opening spot-kick and the Germans failed to convert three of their five attempts, allowing Paraguay to seal a famous 4-3 shootout victory and book their place in the last 16.

Paraguay declares national holiday after stunning Germany

Paraguay President Santiago Pena declared Tuesday a national holiday after the country’s shock penalty shootout victory over Germany secured a place in the FIFA World Cup last 16.

Paraguay stunned the four-time world champions 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw following extra time on Monday, pulling off one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.

Paraguay became the second South American nation to declare a national holiday after a surprise World Cup victory over Germany. Ecuador was the first, doing so after its 2-1 group-stage win over the four-time champions.

Translation: Giant Paraguay! Today, an entire country celebrates. It celebrates the victory of a team that represents the deepest part of our identity: the grit, the faith, and the strength of a people who never give up. Thank you, Albirroja, for gifting us this immense joy and for once again uniting millions of Paraguayans under the same flag. Decree No. 6280: the best things are worth the wait. Let’s go Paraguay! 

US homeland security chief celebrates Iran’s exit

US Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said he “danced a happy dance” after Iran were eliminated from the World Cup.

Iran missed out on the Round of 32 on goal difference after a stoppage-time winner against Egypt was ruled out for offside, with their elimination confirmed when Algeria and Austria drew 3-3 on Sunday.

Speaking during a World Cup briefing on Monday, Mullin said he was “glad they’re done, and they’re not coming back”, adding he was happy when Iran’s visas were revoked and the team left US soil. He also said Iran had required more attention from US authorities than any other team at the tournament.

The comments add to Mullin’s public dispute with the Iranian team. Earlier in the tournament, he alleged members of Iran’s travelling delegation had attempted to bring someone with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps into the United States, an accusation the Iran Football Federation dismissed as “false, fabricated and entirely baseless.”

Sixteen of the 48 teams are heading home, but which of the sides left standing will survive all the way to the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium near New York City on 19 July?

The hopes of another 16 nations will bite the dust after the first knockout round, which includes England against DR Congo and holders Argentina against surprise package Cape Verde.

It was a different team who caused the biggest shock in the final set of group games, however.

While BBC Sport’s football expert Chris Sutton and AI still went for Cape Verde to lose against Saudi Arabia – from more than 50,000 users playing the BBC’s new predictor game – 39% of you correctly went for a draw and 43% even backed the African side to win.

Instead, it was Ecuador who caught almost everyone out this time.

From more than 56,000 users predictions for that game, only 597 of you correctly backed them to beat Germany.

Chris and AI were also wrong about that one but, overall, they both got 15/24 predictions right from that set of matches.

Again, the users did better, with 17/24, and they still lead the way with 72 of this World Cup’s 104 matches now completed.

Chris has been right 41 times (57%), AI has a score of 43 (60%), but you lot are doing even better with 48 (67%).

Before the tournament, Chris also picked the order he thought each of the 12 groups would finish in. He was right about seven of the winners, but only got all four teams in the correct order in three of the groups.

AI’s predictions have been generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat. We simply asked the tool to ‘predict the results of the World Cup last-32 ties’.

The new BBC predictor game allows readers to pick a winner from each knockout tie.

PLAY WORLD CUP PREDICTOR HERE

Knockout matches begin with South Africa vs Canada as Iran exit, Africa make history and hopes for Messi-Ronaldo final rise.

The knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup begins on Sunday with South Africa taking on Canada in the first round of 32 tie.

With the group stage complete, the full knockout bracket is now set. Nine African nations have reached the round of 32, Iran were eliminated after Algeria’s late qualification and the draw has left the door open to a Lionel Messi vs Cristiano Ronaldo final.

Here’s the full round of 32 schedule, the South Africa vs Canada prediction and the latest World Cup news:

What is Sunday’s schedule?

• South Africa vs Canada at Los Angeles Stadium, California, in the United States at noon (19:00 GMT).

What are the predictions for South Africa vs Canada?

This will be only the second meeting between South Africa and Canada. The sides’ only previous encounter ended in a 2-0 win for Bafana Bafana in a friendly in Durban in 2007.

Canada, however, will be looking to end another unwanted record. They have lost both of their previous competitive matches against African opposition, falling 2-0 to Cameroon at the 2001 Confederations Cup before a 2-1 defeat to Morocco at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Despite that history, the Opta supercomputer shows Canada as the clear favourites. They won 55 percent of 25,000 pre-match simulations while South Africa triumphed in 20 percent. The remaining 24.9 percent of its calculations ended level after 90 minutes, which would send the tie to extra time and potentially penalties.

Overall, Canada are given a 67.8 percent chance of reaching the quarterfinals, compared with 32.2 percent for South Africa.

When and where will the other knockout matches be played?

Monday

• Brazil vs Japan: (noon/17:00 GMT) at Houston Stadium, Texas, in the US
• Germany vs Paraguay: (4:30pm/20:30 GMT) at Boston Stadium, Massachusetts, in the US
• Netherlands vs Morocco: (7pm/01:00 GMT on Tuesday) at Monterrey Stadium in Mexico

Tuesday

• Ivory Coast vs Norway (noon/17:00 GMT) at Dallas Stadium, Texas, in the US
• France vs Sweden (5pm/21:00 GMT) at New York/New Jersey Stadium in the US
• Mexico vs Ecuador (7pm/02:00 GMT on Wednesday) at Mexico City Stadium in Mexico

Wednesday

• England vs Democratic Republic of the Congo (noon/16:00 GMT) at Atlanta Stadium, Georgia, in the US
• Belgium vs Senegal (1pm/20:00 GMT) at Seattle Stadium in the US state of Washington
• USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (5pm/00:00 GMT on Thursday) at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, California, in the US

Thursday

• Spain vs Austria (noon/19:00 GMT) at Los Angeles Stadium
• Portugal vs Croatia (7pm/23:00 GMT) at Toronto Stadium, Ontario, Canada
• Switzerland vs Algeria (8pm/03:00 GMT on Friday) at BC Place Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Friday

• Australia vs Egypt (1pm/18:00 GMT) at Dallas Stadium
• Argentina vs Cape Verde (6pm/22:00 GMT) at Miami Stadium, Florida, in the US
• Colombia vs Ghana (8:30pm/01:30 GMT on Saturday) at Kansas City Stadium, Missouri, in the US

What else is happening?

Is Iran eliminated from the 2026 World Cup?

Yes. Iran have been eliminated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Team Melli’s hopes depended on the final Group J match on Saturday between Austria and Algeria. A draw was the only result that could have knocked Iran out, and the 3-3 score meant that Algeria moved above Iran in the ranking of third-placed teams.

Algeria finished third in Group J on four points, enough to take the final available place among the eight best third-placed teams, which advanced to the round of 32.

Iran, who had been holding the last qualifying spot, were, therefore, eliminated in the group stage.

Africa set a new World Cup record

African teams have enjoyed their best ever men’s World Cup campaign.

A record 10 African nations qualified for the expanded 2026 tournament, and nine have reached the round of 32, the most from the continent in a single World Cup.

Those who qualified are: Algeria, Cape Verde, DR Congo, Egypt, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Senegal and South Africa.

Tunisia are the only African side eliminated so far.

The success builds on Africa’s growing influence on the world stage after Morocco’s historic run to the 2022 semifinals. With more nations now consistently challenging football’s traditional powers, the continent is enjoying its strongest World Cup showing yet.

Messi vs Ronaldo final?

A potential knockout clash between superstars Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo remains a possibility – but only if both captains lead their teams all the way to the World Cup 2026 final.

With the round of 32 bracket now confirmed, Argentina and Portugal are on opposite sides of the draw, ruling out the quarterfinal meeting many fans had anticipated. That means football’s two greatest modern rivals can face each other only if both reach the final on July 19.

The bracket has sparked widespread reaction on social media, where fans have been sharing predictions, memes and hopeful scenarios for one last meeting between the two icons, who are both playing in their sixth World Cup.

The 2026 World Cup will have 13 different kickoff times. You can use the Al Jazeera Sport widget to find out exactly when your team is playing in your local time.

Who: England vs Croatia
What: FIFA World Cup 2026 Group L match
Where: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, Texas
When: Wednesday, 3pm local time (20:00 GMT)
How to follow: We’ll have all the build-up on Al Jazeera Sport from 17:00 GMT in advance of our live text commentary stream.

Chants of “It’s Coming Home” will ring around parts of England on Wednesday as the European heavyweights begin their 2026 World Cup title bid with a test against familiar foes, Croatia.

It has been 60 years since England were last crowned world champions, but they are genuine contenders for the title this year.

While coach Thomas Tuchel’s squad selection divided fan opinion in the run-up to their journey to North America, bookmakers still believe this crop of English talent, headlined by Harry Kane, can achieve a deep run in the tournament.

Their first hurdle, though, is a challenging one.

Once labelled underdogs, Croatia have grown into one of international football’s most consistent tournament performers, finishing as World Cup runners-up in 2018 and earning third place at the last edition, in 2022, as well as 1998.

Their 40-year-old captain Luka Modric may well be heading into his last tournament, but he remains the heartbeat of the team, and as has been the case for years, Croatia pose a threat under his leadership.

Al Jazeera tells you everything you need to know about England vs Croatia:

Kane: 2026 World Cup ‘one of the best opportunities’ for England triumph

After a string of near-misses at recent European Championships and World Cups, England head into the 2026 tournament chasing their first world title since 1966.

They are led by captain Kane, who has arrived in North America in some of the best form of his career, and fresh off the high of lifting his second Bundesliga title with Bayern Munich.

“For sure, it’s one of the best opportunities we will have as a team to win it,” Kane told reporters, talking about England’s odds of winning the tournament.

“I think everyone is eager to just start well and prove that we have the capabilities of going far in this tournament.”

The 32-year-old has urged his team, who had a 100 percent record in the qualifiers, to “go for it” and be “free in the mind” when they launch their World Cup title charge in Texas.

Tuchel, too, knows the expectations from fans are high, with England among the top contenders in the 48-team tournament.

Their best run in recent times has been reaching the semifinals in 2018, while their last campaign ended in the quarterfinals in 2022 – both under former manager Gareth Southgate.

“We have a right to dream, but we don’t want to be delusional,” Tuchel has said.

Croatia coach Dalic warns about goal-machine Kane, calls Modric his ‘right hand’

Croatia’s head coach Zlatko ‌Dalic has warned his team to be wary of goal-scoring machine Kane, who netted a whopping 61 times ⁠in 51 matches in all competitions for Bayern Munich last season.

“They have the best striker in the world, they have Kane, and Kane can ⁠do a hell of a lot,” said Dalic. “We will do a lot, we will do our best not only to defend ourselves but to attack, to go forward.

“There will be set pieces, which will be quite difficult, but we are prepared for that. I expect a great game, and it will be ‌great preparation for the next two games in the group.”

Just as Kane is central to England’s hopes of a deep run, veteran Modric is crucial to Croatia’s World Cup dreams. After playing a key role in Croatia’s previous World Cup campaigns, Modric is set for his fifth and possibly final appearance.

The ageing midfielder, also the Balkan nation’s captain, still enjoys a hero’s status among a side that has often defied expectations on the global stage. And by Dalic’s own admission, the team still relies heavily on him, not least for his playmaking prowess.

“He means a lot, both as a captain of our team and as a person,” Dalic said of Modric, ahead of his 199th appearance for the team.

“He is my right hand on the pitch.

“It means a lot to the team that we have a couple of older ⁠players alongside Luka who are leading the younger players, and they can ⁠do very good things,” Dalic added.

“They are very lucky to have him, Luka, as a role model in how to fight for the national team jersey, and we’re lucky to still have him with us.”

England vs Croatia prediction

Stats provider Opta’s supercomputer has handed England a 55.9 percent probability of winning against Croatia, who have a 20.8 percent chance of winning. There is a 23.3 percent probability of a draw.

Overall, England are fourth in the list of title favourites – with a 10.02 percent probability – behind Spain, France and Argentina.

England vs Croatia: Kickoff time, TV listing

In the United Kingdom, England vs Croatia kicks off at 9pm BST and will be shown on STV, STV Player, ITV1 and ITVX.

For fans in Croatia, the match is scheduled for 10pm and will be shown on HRT.

In the United States, viewers can tune into FOX One, Telemundo App, Telemundo Network, FOX and Peacock.

To check the TV listings for your country, head to FIFA’s TV listing schedule here.

How does the World Cup group stage work?

England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama are in Group L.

The top two teams from each of the 12 groups – along with the eight best third-placed teams – proceed to the next phase, the round of 32, which has been introduced at the World Cup for the first time.

Form guide:

(Last five games, latest first)

England: W-W-L-D-W

Croatia: W-L-L-W-W

England have a slightly better record than Croatia in their last five matches. Both teams have won three games each, but England lost and drew the other two, while Croatia suffered defeats in both games.

England won against Costa Rica and New Zealand in pre-World Cup friendlies earlier this month, but lost to Japan in an unexpected result in late March. Before that, they drew with Uruguay in a friendly and beat Albania in a World Cup qualifier.

Croatia won against Slovakia but fell to Belgium in their World Cup warm-up matches, while also losing to Brazil in a friendly in late March. But before that, they beat Colombia in a friendly and won against Montenegro in a World Cup qualifier.

England vs Croatia: Head-to-head

Wednesday will be the 12th meeting between the two sides, with England holding a big advantage over Croatia in their head-to-head record.

England have won six times against Croatia, who have won three times. Two matches ended in a draw.

They have met at the World Cup three times before, with England losing their last tournament encounter 2-1 at the 2018 World Cup semifinal in Moscow.

England vs Croatia: Team news

On Tuesday, England defender Tino Livramento was ruled out of the tournament after suffering a calf injury and was replaced by Trevoh Chalobah. The Newcastle United right-back sustained the injury during a training session at the team’s Kansas City base on Sunday.

No injury concerns in the Croatia camp.

England predicted XI

(4-2-3-1): Pickford; James, Konsa, Guehi, O’Reilly; Anderson, Rice; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane

Croatia predicted XI

(4-2-3-1): Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Vuskovic, Gvardiol; Modric, Kovacic; Pasalic, Kramaric, Perisic; Budimir

The World Cup on Tuesday features tournament heavyweights Argentina and France, who are beginning their campaigns.

France, the 2018 World Cup winners, take on Senegal in East Rutherford, New Jersey, in a repeat of their famous opener in the 2002 edition while Lionel Messi’s reigning champions Argentina face Algeria in Kansas City, Missouri. In Tuesday’s other matches, Norway return to the World Cup for the first time in 28 years against Iraq, and Austria meet Jordan in the day’s final fixture.

Away from the games, Cape Verde are still celebrating their historic draw with Spain while Iraq’s return to the tournament has sparked both happiness and frustration among their supporters.

Here’s what to watch on Day 6 of the World Cup:

What is the schedule for Tuesday?

Four more teams begin their campaigns on Tuesday.

France vs Senegal at New York New Jersey Stadium is scheduled to kick off at 3pm (19:00 GMT).

Later, Norway return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998 when they take on Iraq at Boston Stadium in Massachusetts with kickoff at 6pm (22:00 GMT).

And Argentina will also play against Algeria at Kansas City Stadium at 8pm (01:00 GMT on Wednesday) before Austria meet Jordan at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in California at 9pm (04:00 GMT on Wednesday).

What are the predictions for France vs Senegal?

France head into the tournament as one of the favourites, sitting third in FIFA’s world rankings. But African powerhouse Senegal, ranked 16th, are expected to provide a stern early test in their opening match.

The teams’ only previous World Cup meeting came in the opening match of the 2002 tournament when tournament debutants Senegal stunned defending champions France 1-0. Papa Bouba Diop’s memorable winner sparked celebrations across Dakar, and then-President Abdoulaye Wade declared a national holiday. Senegal went on to reach the quarterfinals while France exited without winning a game.

Opta’s supercomputer still gives France a clear edge at New York New Jersey Stadium, assigning Les Bleus a 64.8 percent chance of victory. Senegal’s chances of pulling off another upset stand at 14.9 percent while the probability of a draw is put at 20.3 percent.

What are the predictions for Iraq vs Norway?

Tuesday’s Group I clash will be the first meeting between Iraq and Norway, and it will be the Nordic country’s first World Cup match against a team from the Asian Football Confederation.

Norway have relished their return to the World Cup after a long hiatus from the tournament. Fans have drawn attention with their synchronised “Viking row” celebrations while Erling Haaland shared a Viking-themed team photo on social media, describing the tournament as “a dream 28 years in the making”. Led by Haaland and Martin Odegaard, the Norwegians arrive with high hopes.

Opta’s supercomputer expects Norway to start strongly, giving them a 77.4 percent chance of victory. A draw is rated at 14 percent while Iraq have an 8.6 percent chance of pulling off an upset.

What are the predictions for Argentina vs Algeria?

Argentina and Algeria have never faced each other at the World Cup although they did meet in a friendly in 2007 when Argentina came from behind to secure a thrilling 4-3 win at Barcelona’s Camp Nou. A teenager by the name of Lionel Messi scored the first two goals of his international career that day.

History also favours the South Americans. Argentina have won each of their last six World Cup matches against African opponents, rebounding from their shock 1-0 defeat to Cameroon in 1990. Algeria, meanwhile, have enjoyed mixed fortunes against South American sides at the tournament, beating Chile in 1982 before losing to Brazil four years later.

Opta’s supercomputer expects Argentina to make a winning start in Group J. After 25,000 simulations, Lionel Scaloni’s side emerged victorious 68.2 percent of the time. Algeria were given a 13.2 percent chance of causing an upset while a draw was the outcome in 18.6 percent of the projections.

What are the predictions for Austria vs Jordan?

Austria enter the match as the clear favourites on paper. Ranked 25th in the world, they sit 39 places above Jordan, who are 64th in FIFA’s standings, and the Europeans are widely expected to challenge for a place in the knockout rounds.

Opta’s supercomputer strongly backs Austria to open their campaign with a victory in San Francisco, giving them a 70.3 percent chance of taking all three points. Jordan have been assigned a 12.9 percent probability of pulling off an upset while the likelihood of a draw stands at 16.9 percent.

Looking beyond this match, Austria are considered Argentina’s main challengers in Group J. They have an 18 percent chance of finishing top of the group, compared with just 2.9 percent for Jordan.

What else is shaping the World Cup?

Cape Verde celebrate historic point

Cape Verde’s 0-0 draw with Spain led to wild celebrations among fans, including in Boston, home to a large Cape Verdean community. Supporters said they were proud to see their country shine on the World Cup stage.

“Everyone thought Spain would beat us,” one fan said. “We’re a small country, but we have a big heart.”

According to a report on the NBC TV network, goalkeeper Vozinha also became an overnight social media sensation with his Instagram following soaring after the game. NBC said the goalkeeper went from 50,000 followers on Instagram to 4.9 million.

Saudi Arabia deny Uruguay victory

Saudi Arabia looked set for another famous World Cup upset after Abdulelah Alamri gave the Green Falcons the lead against Uruguay, four years on from their shock win over Argentina.

But Uruguay’s Maximiliano Araujo struck 10 minutes from time to earn Uruguay a 1-1 draw. Saudi goalkeeper Mohammed Alowais then made several key saves to preserve the point, leaving Group H finely balanced after the opening round of matches.

Tunisia sack coach after heavy defeat

Tunisia have dismissed Sabri Lamouchi after their 5-1 loss to Sweden in their World Cup opener. Mondher Kebaier is set to take over on an interim basis as Tunisia try to revive their campaign before matches against Japan and the Netherlands.

Meet Merlin, Mexico’s unlikely mascot

A duck named Merlin became one of the World Cup’s first viral stars after appearing in Mexico City celebrations dressed in the national team’s colours. Fans on social media called the two-year-old a “national treasure” and even called for him to attend matches as the tournament’s unofficial mascot.

Norway embrace their Viking roots

Norway have brought Viking fever to the tournament. Fans have debuted a synchronised “Viking row” celebration in the stands while the team posed for a Viking-themed photoshoot that sparked both excitement and debate back home. The images, shared by Erling Haaland, have become one of the tournament’s early talking points.

FIFA clears VAR official Shaun Evans

FIFA said it found “no evidence” to support allegations that video assistant referee Shaun Evans breached its disciplinary code after he was accused of making a white supremacist hand gesture during Germany’s World Cup opener against Curacao. Evans, an Australian, said the gesture was an involuntary movement and denied any intent to communicate a racist message.

For many Iraqis, qualifying for the World Cup has brought a rare moment of joy after decades of conflict and hardship.

Fans said the team’s return to football’s biggest stage after more than 40 years offers people a chance to unite and move away, even briefly, from the tensions in the region.

“We haven’t felt this happy in a long time,” Ahmed Salman, an Iraqi fan, told Al Jazeera.

“This is a chance for people to come together and move away from the atmosphere of war, especially given the tense situation in the region.”

But the celebrations have also been mixed with frustration over restrictions that some said have prevented Iraqi supporters from attending the tournament in the United States.

“Banning the fans is a very negative step because sports have nothing to do with politics,” Salman said. “People are coming to celebrate.”

Another Iraq supporter described the emotions as bittersweet.

“As Iraqis, after more than 40 years, we have qualified for the World Cup,” Taha Mohamed said. “It brings a feeling of joy and comfort, … but regarding the fans, it is frustrating.”

Pre-tournament favourites Spain open their Group H campaign with a match against World Cup debutants Cape Verde.

The 2026 World Cup will have 13 different kickoff times. You can use the Al Jazeera Sport widget to find out exactly when your team is playing in your local time.

Who: Spain vs Cape Verde
What: FIFA World Cup 2026 Group H match
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, United States
When: Monday, 12pm local time (16:00 GMT)
How to follow: Catch all live updates on Al Jazeera Sport

Spain, the reigning European champions and strong favourites for the 2026 World Cup, begin their title bid on Monday by facing minnows Cape Verde in Atlanta.

Since winning their maiden world title in 2010, Spain have endured a dismal run in the following three campaigns, bowing out in the group stage in 2014 and exiting in the round of 16 in 2018 and 2022.

But their Euro 2024 success and a new golden generation of Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Gavi, Ferran Torres and others have prompted bookmakers to keep Spain at the top of the potential winners‘ list.

La Roja – known for playing entertaining, attacking football – have become unshakeable over the last four years, going 30 matches unbeaten since a 1-0 friendly loss to Colombia at Wembley in March 2024.

Spain will arguably be the team to beat in North America, with Opta’s supercomputer handing them a 15.94 percent probability to lift the title, and France a close second at 13.62 percent odds.

Will Yamal play in Spain vs Cape Verde?

Yamal single-handedly stole the show in Germany two years ago en route to their Euro title, and will hope to repeat that form at the June 11 – July 19 tournament.

But the teen sensation may have to wait a little longer to make his World Cup debut.

Spain could take a cautious approach for the Cape Verde opener with winger Yamal and young forward Nico Williams in the final stages of recovery from hamstring injuries sustained ‌in April.

Both returned to training with their teammates on Thursday, but De la Fuente could opt to name them on the bench or keep them out of the matchday squad until they reach full fitness.

Cape Verde to break new ground in North America

Known for its crystal-clear waters and sandy white beaches, Cape Verde will make noise for different reasons this North American summer.

The archipelago of 10 islands in the Atlantic Ocean will make its World Cup debut on Monday, arriving at the global showpiece as one of 10 African representatives.

After their fairytale qualification, which coincided with its 50th anniversary of independence from Portugal, Cape Verde – with fewer than 600,000 inhabitants – became the third smallest country by population to ⁠reach the tournament after Iceland in 2018 and Curacao, also in 2026.

The team has slowly built credibility in recent years. Their international breakthrough came in 2013 when they ⁠qualified for their first Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) and reached the quarterfinal stage.

Cape Verde has spread the national team net wide with starters based in several countries, including Portugal, the Netherlands, and the United States.

Spain vs Cape Verde prediction

Spain are strong favourites to win this match, having an 87.2 percent probability of walking away with three points. Cape Verde have a slim 4.8 percent chance of victory, while a draw has an 8.15 percent chance.

Overall, Spain have a 76.53 percent probability to win Group H, which also includes Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.

How to watch Spain vs Cape Verde?

The following is the list of broadcasters and platforms to watch the game in these countries:

• Spain: LA 1, DAZN Mundial, RTVE Play
• Cape Verde: New World TV, SuperSport
• United Kingdom: ITVX, ITV1, STV Player, STV
• USA: FOX, FOX One, Telemundo App, Telemundo Network, Peacock

The World Cup 2026 starts on Thursday, kicking off the biggest tournament in football history across the United States, Canada and Mexico.

A record 48 teams will play 104 matches over the next six weeks, with millions of fans turning their attention to the opening ceremony, the first games and the storylines set to define the tournament.

Here’s what to watch on day one:

What’s the schedule on June 11?

The World Cup gets under way on Thursday, June 11, with two Group A matches taking place in Mexico.

The opening ceremony at Mexico City Stadium in Mexico City begins at 11am local time (17:00 GMT) and will feature a celebration of Mexican and Latin music.

Mexican singer Alejandro Fernandez will perform the national anthem, joined by artists including Mana, Los Angeles Azules, Lila Downs and Belinda. Colombia’s J Balvin and Venezuela’s Danny Ocean are also set to appear, while Shakira headlines the ceremony alongside Nigeria’s Burna Boy with the debut performance of “Dai Dai”, the tournament’s official song.

Hosts Mexico then face South Africa at the same venue at 1pm local time (19:00 GMT).

Later, South Korea take on Czechia at Estadio Guadalajara (Estadio Akron) in Guadalajara, with kickoff scheduled for 8pm local time (02:00 GMT on June 12).

What do the predictions say for Mexico vs South Africa match?

Mexico are the clear favourites to beat South Africa in the World Cup opener, with the Opta supercomputer giving the hosts a 66.3 percent chance of victory based on 10,000 pre-match simulations.

South Africa are assigned a 14.3 percent probability of winning, while a draw occurs in 19.4 percent of the simulations.

Looking beyond the opening fixture, Opta also projects Mexico to finish top of Group A, ahead of South Korea, Czechia and South Africa.

El Tri will be led by veteran striker Raul Jimenez and 17-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora, while goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa is set to make history by playing in a record sixth World Cup. South Africa, meanwhile, are appearing at the tournament for the fourth time and for the first time since hosting it in 2010.

Teams playing in Mexico will compete at some of the highest-altitude venues in the tournament. Mexico City Stadium is located about 7,300 feet (2,225 metres) above sea level, while Guadalajara sits at roughly 5,138 feet (1,566 metres).

What do the predictions say for South Korea vs Czechia match?

South Korea are slight favourites against Czechia, with Opta assigning them a 42.9 percent chance of victory compared with Czechia’s 31.1 percent.

The likelihood of a draw stands at 26.0 percent, suggesting a closely contested match.

In the wider Group A outlook, South Korea have a 70 percent chance of reaching the knockout stages and a 21.3 percent probability of winning the group, while Czechia are given a 64.3 percent chance of advancing and a 17.9 percent chance of topping the standings.

What else is shaping the World Cup?

While the opening ceremony and first matches take centre stage, they are far from the only stories defining this World Cup. From immigration controversies and soaring ticket prices to new technology and late injury setbacks, here’s what else is making headlines as the tournament gets under way.

Somali referee Omar Artan receives hero’s welcome after World Cup ban

Artan received a hero’s welcome in Mogadishu after being denied entry to the US ahead of the tournament. Hundreds of supporters waving Somali flags gathered to greet the referee, who had been set to become the first Somali official to officiate at a World Cup.

US authorities stopped him at Miami International Airport, citing unspecified “vetting concerns”, and FIFA later removed him from the referees’ roster. Artan told The New York Times he was questioned for 11 hours before being sent back.

Despite the setback, he remained hopeful. “I promise you, God willing, that I will attend the next one,” he told supporters.

Sky-high ticket prices anger fans

World Cup 2026 is shaping up to be the most expensive in the tournament’s history, with soaring ticket prices, costly transport and accommodation, and concerns over US immigration policies prompting some fans to reconsider attending.

FIFA introduced dynamic pricing for the first time, meaning ticket costs rise with demand. With more than 500 million ticket requests submitted during the initial sales phase, some seats have reached eye-watering prices.

“Already there’s so much inflation. I have to pay so much already for the gas to get here, and now even more for tickets, you know, that’s so awful,” a football fan told Al Jazeera.

“That definitely means I won’t be able to go and I think a lot of people are going to feel very jaded for that. So I really hope they can re-evaluate it or at least give some kind of a discount for people who are really huge fans,” she added.

When tickets first went on sale in December, prices ranged from $140 to $8,680 for the final. By April, FIFA had raised the top price to $10,990, nearly seven times the $1,550 maximum outlined in North America’s original bid.

New tech rules

FIFA and the International Football Association Board (IFAB) have introduced a series of changes aimed at speeding up play and improving decision-making.

These include upgraded semiautomated offside technology, a smart match ball fitted with sensors that send real-time data to VAR, visible five-second countdowns to discourage time-wasting on throw-ins and goal kicks, stricter substitution rules and expanded VAR powers to review clear errors involving second yellow cards, mistaken identity and incorrectly awarded corner kicks.

World Cup injury setbacks

The Netherlands have been dealt a blow with Arsenal defender Jurrien Timber ruled out after failing to recover from a groin injury. The Dutch FA said the 24-year-old was not fit enough to cope with the demands of the tournament.

Brazil have also lost a key defender, with AS Roma right back Wesley ruled out after suffering a left thigh injury in a friendly against Egypt. He has been replaced by Atalanta midfielder Ederson ahead of Brazil’s Group C opener against Morocco.

Why are drinks breaks controversial?

FIFA has introduced mandatory three-minute hydration breaks midway through each half of all 104 World Cup games, saying the measure is necessary to protect players from extreme heat following concerns raised during last year’s Club World Cup in the United States.

Critics, however, argue the rule applies too broadly, even in cooler venues, and have accused FIFA of commercialising the stoppages after allowing broadcasters to air advertisements during the breaks.

Trump might not attend United States World Cup opener

President Donald Trump has not said whether he will attend the United States’s opening World Cup match against Paraguay in Los Angeles on Friday. However, several people familiar with the tournament planning said they do not currently expect him to be there, according to a report by Politico, although his plans could still change.

The US government will still be represented at the match. The State Department said Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend, along with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.

Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum won’t attend either

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum won’t be using the ticket FIFA gave her for the opening match. Instead, it went to Yolett Cervantes Cuaquehua, a 21-year-old from Veracruz who won a contest by showing off her football juggling skills.

The challenge invited young women to keep the ball up for one minute on camera, and Sheinbaum also awarded tickets to three other winners.

“They are the pride of Mexico. They will not represent the president, or the head of government, they will represent Mexico,” Sheinbaum said at a news conference to give away the ticket to Cervantes Cuaquehua.

World Cup celebrations begin amid protests in Mexico City

As Mexico gets ready to host the opening match, protests are taking place across the capital. Teachers from the CNTE union, along with transport workers, farmers and families of missing people, have taken to the streets to demand better pay, pension changes and action on longstanding issues.

Some demonstrations have affected World Cup preparations, with protesters blocking roads leading to the Estadio Azteca and removing some tournament installations.

The 2026 World Cup arrives carrying more baggage than most.

Alongside the excitement of the opening matches are concerns about immigration crackdowns, travel restrictions, the wars in Gaza and Iran, and the close relationship between FIFA boss Gianni Infantino and US President Donald Trump.

Journalist Ashish Malhotra, speaking to Al Jazeera’s The Take, argued that Trump has placed himself at the centre of the tournament. “One reason, Donald Trump. He’s really put himself front and centre for this World Cup,” he said, adding that the US president is using the event as a distraction from other crises.

Malhotra was equally critical of football’s governing body. “FIFA is 100 percent a political actor and it has been for close to a century,” he said, pointing to the organisation’s history of aligning itself with leaders accused of human rights abuses.

And yet, despite the contradictions, billions are still expected to tune in. “Sports are a bit of a drug. It’s a bit of an addiction,” Malhotra said. “The way that a World Cup brings people together is why people get sucked in.” It is perhaps the tournament’s greatest paradox: even amid controversy, the pull of the beautiful game remains difficult to resist.

Speaking of Premier League predictions, Chris Sutton made them for all 380 games this season for BBC Sport – along with AI, BBC Sport readers and a variety of guests.

The outcome of the BBC predictions title race went to the final day, with Sutton the only one who could stop AI – Microsoft chatbot Copilot – from taking the glory.

With one round of fixtures to go, they were level on outright wins – which is the decisive metric.

Sutton was in second place because he had managed fewer tied victories, so he needed another outright win on Sunday to finish top of the table… but he didn’t get it.

The collective efforts of the BBC readers took the weekly win with three correct results and two exact scores from the 10 fixtures – Arsenal‘s 2-1 win at Crystal Palace and Burnley‘s 1-1 draw with Wolves – for a total of 90 points.

Sutton only managed two correct results with no exact scores, giving him 20 points.

His guest, singer-songwriter Sam Tomkins did a little better, with three correct results and no exact scores, for 30 points.

AI managed four correct scores and no exact results, to end up on 40 points, but was able to celebrate its overall triumph.

When asked what it felt like to beat Sutton at predictions, AI claimed it didn’t feel anything – but still appeared to be laughing at him.

It replied: “I don’t feel things the way a person does but what I can do is recognise the achievement in the same way a model recognises a pattern: the scale, the consistency, the improbability. And on that level? Yes, it’s a great outcome.

“It feels satisfying in a very nerdy, football analytics way – not emotional but intellectually fun.

“Beating Chris Sutton over a full 380-game season is basically the equivalent of winning away at the Etihad: improbable, statistical chaos, and therefore deeply amusing.”

Sutton did not find it quite so funny.

“The game’s gone,” he replied. “AI will be winning the Premier League soon, at this rate.”

Oleksandr Usyk defends his WBC world title against Rico Verhoeven on Saturday in Egypt.

The fight is unusual in location as in nature, with kickboxing world champion Verhoeven getting a title shot in just his second boxing fight – and first since 2014.

The 37-year-old Dutchman is aiming to pull off arguably the biggest upset in the sport’s history.

Ukrainian Usyk, 39, is aiming to continue his near 17-year winning streak.

Will we see an underdog win for the ages or will Usyk’s dominance continue?

BBC Sport asks the boxing world for their predictions.

The race is dominated by just-under-the-wire releases, with three of the seven projected nominees dropping this month (the end of the eligibility window is May 31).

Matt Roush says, “Star-powered late arrivals ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures’ (with Sally Field, Lewis Pullman and the voice of Alfred Molina — as an octopus!) and ‘Miss You, Love You’ (with Allison Janney and Andrew Rannells) suddenly make this category a bit more interesting than usual.”

Trey Mangum says of the runaway No. 1 pick, “Dropping just in time is Netflix’s ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures,’ anchored by Sally Field and an absolute shoo-in.”

While several panelists continue to plead ignorance as to what, exactly, makes a movie debuting on television a TV movie or not a TV movie, some find titles to champion.

“This category continually confounds me, but I have to admit I still love a good, weird, chaotic stoner comedy despite having aged out of that demo,” says a somewhat responsible-sounding Tracy Brown, definitely not typing her comment at a Taco Bell. “All that is to say, I was charmed by ‘Pizza Movie,’ my dark horse pick.”

More predictions: Limited / TV movie actor | Limited / TV movie actress

1. “Remarkably Bright Creatures”
2. “Deep Cover”
3. “Swiped”
4. “Miss You, Love You”
T5. “Heads of State”
T5. “Jack Ryan Ghost War”
T5. “Straw”

Los Angeles Times

Lorraine Ali

1. ““Remarkably Bright Creatures”
2. “Swiped”
T3. “Deep Cover”
T3. “Miss You, Love You”
T3. “Straw”

“Expect to see ‘Deep Cover,’ ‘Miss You, Love You,’ ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures,’ ‘Straw’ and ‘Swiped’ in the running. And what qualifies as a TV movie in 2026, when TV and film mediums are beyond fluid? No idea. I’m just here to blurb.”

Freelance Critic

Kristen Baldwin

1. “Remarkably Bright Creatures”
2. “Swiped”
3. “Straw”
4. “Deep Cover”
5. “Miss You, Love You”

“Vince Vaughn’s lightweight culinary comedy, ‘Nonnas,’ managed to earn a nomination for Netflix in 2025. Does that mean voters will be twice as likely to put Hulu’s ‘Mike & Nick & Nick & Alice’ — in which the actor plays two versions of the titular Nick — on their ballot?”

Los Angeles Times

Tracy Brown

1. “Remarkably Bright Creatures”
2. “Miss You, Love You”
3. “Deep Cover”
4. “Jack Ryan Ghost War”
5. “Pizza Movie”

“This category continually confounds me, but I have to admit I still love a good, weird, chaotic stoner comedy despite having aged out of that demo. All that is to say, I was charmed by ‘Pizza Movie,’ my dark horse pick. ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures’ is the likely front–runner but I wouldn’t count ‘Deep Cover’ out.”

Blavity

Trey Mangum

1. “Heads of State”
2. “Deep Cover”
3. “Remarkably Bright Creatures”
4. “Swiped”
5. “People We Meet on Vacation”

“Dropping just in time is Netflix’s ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures,’ anchored by Sally Field and an absolute shoo-in. Then there’s last year’s ‘Deep Cover,’ which is buoyed by the likes of Orlando Bloom and Bryce Dallas Howard.”

TV Insider

Matt Roush

1. “Remarkably Bright Creatures”
2. “Miss You, Love You”
3. “Jack Ryan Ghost War”
4. “Deep Cover”
5. “The Best You Can”

“Star-powered late arrivals ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures’ (with Sally Field, Lewis Pullman and the voice of Alfred Molina — as an octopus!) and ‘Miss You, Love You’ (with Allison Janney and Andrew Rannells) suddenly make this category a bit more interesting than usual. A ‘Jack Ryan’ movie gets in by name recognition.”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. “Remarkably Bright Creatures”
2. “Swiped”
3. “Deep Cover”
4. “Miss You, Love You”
5. “People We Meet on Vacation”

“Six years after ‘My Octopus Teacher,’ we find there’s still much to learn from eight-limbed marine mollusks in ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures.’ Shameless, yes, but also sweet.”

Noah Wyle is a consensus pick, with a sizable lead over Mark Ruffalo. Glenn Whipp sums up the Buzz: “There’s little chance that Noah Wyle doesn’t repeat.”

The panel, though, says it would like to see the academy sidestep its usual voting habits and honor some genre work as well. Walton Goggins of the video game-spawned “Fallout,” Antony Starr of the super-powered satire “The Boys” and Peter Claffey of “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” all get votes, while Alfred Molina and Karl Urban get shout-outs.

Matt Roush says, “While fantasy seems a long shot, ‘Fallout’s’ Walton Goggins and ‘The Boys’ adversaries Antony Starr and Karl Urban are all worthy.”

“You can’t help but root for ‘A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms’ ’ Ser Duncan the Tall — a naive underdog chasing his dreams while trying to do the right thing,” says Tracy Brown of Claffey.

Even No. 3 pick Sterling K. Brown is in a sci-fi/postapocalyptic entry, “Paradise.” If he can survive the end of civilization, surely he can withstand a stressed-out ER doc? “It may seem inevitable for Noah Wyle to take the trophy again,” writes Trey Mangum. “But I wouldn’t count Brown out just yet.”

More predictions: drama series | drama actress | drama supp. actor | drama supp. actress

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Mark Ruffalo, “Task”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
4. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
5. Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”
6. Walton Goggins, “Fallout”
7. Billy Bob Thornton, “Landman”
8. Antony Starr, “The Boys”

Los Angeles Times

Lorraine Ali

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Mark Ruffalo, “Task”
T3. Walton Goggins, “Fallout”
T3. Antony Starr, “The Boys”
T5. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
T5. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
T5. Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”

“It’s hard to look at Walter Goggins’ noseless ‘Fallout’ character, the Ghoul, without retching, but his compelling performance also makes it hard to turn away. Antony Starr brings to life another type of monster: an egomaniacal, king-of-the-world superhero in ‘The Boys.’ Then there’s Noah Wyle. He plays a doctor.”

Freelance Critic

Kristen Baldwin

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Mark Ruffalo, “Task”
3. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
4. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
5. Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”
6. Walton Goggins, “Fallout”

“There’s not a lot of wiggle room in this category, but don’t count out Alfred Molina, who stars in Netflix’s ‘The Boroughs,’ a sort of ‘senior citizens battle stranger things’ drama from the Duffer Brothers. (Of course, Molina will have to get through Jon Hamm, Peter Claffey and Billy Bob Thornton first.)”

Los Angeles Times

Tracy Brown

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
3. Mark Ruffalo, “Task”
4. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
5. Walton Goggins, “Fallout”
6. Peter Claffey, “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”

“This might be a long shot for Peter Claffey, but you can’t help but root for ‘A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms’’ Ser Duncan the Tall — a naive underdog chasing his dreams while trying to do the right thing. Last year’s winner Noah Wyle is the strong front–runner, though.”

Blavity

Trey Mangum

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
3. Mark Ruffalo, “Task”
4. Billy Bob Thornton, “Landman”
5. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
6. Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”

“If ‘Paradise’s’ drama series buzz is big enough, I think Sterling K. Brown could really be a force here, though it seems as if it may seem inevitable for Noah Wyle to take the trophy again. But I wouldn’t count Brown out just yet.”

TV Insider

Matt Roush

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
3. Mark Ruffalo, “Task”
4. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
5. Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”
6. Billy Bob Thornton, “Landman”

“Noah Wyle and Sterling K. Brown are locks to repeat, and Mark Ruffalo’s mournful ‘Task’ hero is another potential winner. Billy Bob Thornton carries ‘Landman’ on his weary shoulders. While fantasy seems a long shot, ‘Fallout’s’ Walton Goggins and ‘The Boys’ adversaries Antony Starr and Karl Urban are all worthy.”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
2. Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise”
4. Mark Ruffalo, “Task”
5. Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”
6. Jon Hamm, “Your Friends & Neighbors”

“ ‘Slow Horses’ has been breaking through at the Emmys the last couple of years, winning for writing and direction. Might it be Gary Oldman’s time? It’s a nice thought … but there’s little chance that Noah Wyle doesn’t repeat for ‘The Pitt.’ ”

It’s a tight three-way race at the top, with a second helping of “Beef,” which won eight Emmys for its first serving, barely ahead of Richard Gadd’s “Baby Reindeer” follow-up, and a suburban noir with abundant heart from Steven Conrad, the maker of “Patriot.”

Glenn Whipp says, “ ‘DTF St. Louis’ is the standout limited series, a murder mystery in form that’s really about suburban loneliness, particularly the isolation that can cripple middle-aged men.”

While Lorraine Ali calls “Half Man” “the series to watch in this race,” not all of her Buzzy buddies are as enthusiastic: “I fear that ‘Half Man,’ Richard Gadd’s aggressively unpleasant follow-up to ‘Baby Reindeer,’ will get a knee-jerk nomination here,” says Kristen Baldwin, “but that vote would be better spent on PBS’ superb adaptation of ‘The Count of Monte Cristo’ or Riz Ahmed’s ‘Bait.’ ”

Tracy Brown says, “Recent trends suggest this race might come down to voters’ appetites for bleak British miniseries” such as “Half Man,” but “ ‘Adolescence’ co-creator Jack Thorne’s ‘Lord of the Flies’ adaptation was a bit more in my lane so I’ll give it the edge.”

The twice-cooked “Beef” isn’t to all the panelists’ tastes, either. Matt Roush says it “left me cold but probably has a better chance than the streamer’s terrific historical drama ‘Death by Lightning.’ ”

More predictions: Limited / TV movie actor | Limited / TV movie actress

1.“Beef”
2. “Half Man”
3. “DTF St. Louis”
4. “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”
5. “All Her Fault”
6. “The Beast in Me”
7. “Bait”
8. “Lord of the Flies””

Los Angeles Times

Lorraine Ali

1. “Half Man”
2. “Bait”
3. “DTF St. Louis”
4. “All Her Fault”
5. “The Beast in Me”

“ ‘Half Man’ is the series to watch in this race, but what should you watch on your screen at home? ‘Bait,’ which follows a struggling British Pakistani actor (Riz Ahmed) as he auditions to become the next James Bond. Is the world ready for a brown Bond? Not really. Hilarity ensues.”

Freelance Critic

Kristen Baldwin

1. “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”
2. “Beef”
3. “The Beast in Me”
4. “DTF St. Louis”
5. “All Her Fault”

“I fear that ‘Half Man,’ Richard Gadd’s aggressively unpleasant follow–up to ‘Baby Reindeer,’ will get a knee-jerk nomination here, but that vote would be better spent on PBS’ superb adaptation of ‘The Count of Monte Cristo’ or Riz Ahmed’s ‘Bait,’ a surreal blend of showbiz satire and immigrant-family comedy.”

Los Angeles Times

Tracy Brown

1. “Beef”
2. “DTF St. Louis”
3. “All Her Fault”
4. “Lord of the Flies”
5. “The Beast in Me”

“Recent trends suggest this race might come down to voters’ appetites for bleak British miniseries. I wouldn’t be surprised if ‘Baby Reindeer’ creator Richard Gadd’s ‘Half Man’ is among the nominees, but ‘Adolescence’ co-creator Jack Thorne’s ‘Lord of the Flies’ adaptation was a bit more in my lane so I’ll give it the edge.”

Blavity

Trey Mangum

1. “Half Man”
2. “Beef”
3. “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”
4. “All Her Fault”
5. “DTF St. Louis”

“ ‘Love Story’ was the talk of the town when it first premiered, but the last few episodes seemed to have landed softly with the majority of people. I think later entries ‘Beef’ and ‘Half Man’ are immediately dominating conversations, and at the right time.”

TV Insider

Matt Roush

1. “Half Man”
2. “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”
3. “Beef”
4. “DTF St. Louis”
5. “All Her Fault”

“Not the strongest field this year, though Richard Gadd’s ‘Half Man’ and Ryan Murphy’s ‘Love Story’ seem unstoppable. The offbeat ‘DTF St. Louis’ might be a spoiler. Season 2 of Netflix’s ‘Beef’ left me cold but probably has a better chance than the streamer’s terrific historical drama ‘Death by Lightning.’ ”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. “DTF St. Louis”
2. “Beef”
3. “Half Man”
4. “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”
5. “All Her Fault”

“ ‘DTF St. Louis’ is the standout limited series, a murder mystery in form that’s really about suburban loneliness, particularly the isolation that can cripple middle-aged men. The cast — Jason Bateman, David Harbour, Linda Cardellini, Richard Jenkins and Joy Sunday — is superb. Emmy noms for all!”

Two big-hitting British heavyweights will collide for a world title in Manchester on Saturday as Fabio Wardley defends his WBO belt against Daniel Dubois.

Unbeaten Wardley, 31, makes the first defence of his title after the Ipswich fighter was upgraded from interim to full world champion last year.

Londoner Dubois, 28, is aiming to bounce back from his defeat by Oleksandr Usyk last summer, as he looks to become a two-time world champion.

With a combined 95% knockout ratio, it seems unlikely the judges will be needed at the Co-op Live Arena.

BBC Sport spoke to figures from the boxing world to get their predictions.