May 9 is a venerated date on the Russian calendar. The anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II is usually commemorated with a grand military parade outside the Kremlin, on Moscow’s Red Square.
“For modern Russia, it’s the main holiday of the year,” said Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at Crisis Group. “There are two main holidays in Russia, the ninth of May and the New Year. And if you asked Russians, what is the main holiday, I think they would answer you that it’s the ninth of May.”
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This year, however, for the first time in nearly 20 years, there will be no tanks, missiles or junior cadets in the parade. The decision to hold back on showcasing military equipment comes as a result of heightened security fears over the war in Ukraine.
However, personnel from higher-level military academies will still take part in the procession on foot, while the aerial portion of the programme will remain unchanged – an aerobatic show, followed by a team of Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets painting the sky in the tricolours of the Russian flag.
In official statements, the Kremlin has referred to “the current operational situation,” and threats of “Ukrainian terrorist activity.”
Ukrainian drones are now striking deeper and deeper into Russian territory on an almost daily basis, hitting targets such as oil facilities and airfields. A recent spate of drone attacks on the oil refinery in Tuapse, on Russia’s Black Sea coast, has caused an ecological catastrophe and prompted the evacuation of the town.
“Drones are indeed the primary means to attack Russia’s territory,” explained Olha Polishchuk, research manager for Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). “They are relatively cheap, modifiable and can travel long distances … Both Ukraine and Russia have switched to using primarily drones for their attacks.
He said that since 2025, drone strikes “completely overshadowed other attacks”.
“Their use has been effective overall; most drones are intercepted but if you send enough of them, some will reach the target.”
Fears of ‘political and psychological consequences’
Security and anti-drone defences have been tightened in the capital since the Ukrainian armed forces began sending drones there in 2023, with one striking the Kremlin itself.
Mobile internet has been periodically shut off in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and other areas of the country in the days running up to the event, with providers citing “security reasons”.
“Moscow has very strong air defence, which includes short-range surface-to-air missile systems, other missile systems, small arms and electronic warfare systems,” explained Polishchuk. “It is a multilayered system located both around and inside the city. In the past, authorities have shut down cellular networks in Moscow to complicate drone navigation.
“Ukraine very rarely attacks Moscow because the air defence would require a very large swarm of drones for any attack to land, but also because there are plenty of other strategically relevant targets that do not carry such a high risk of civilian casualties.”
Nevertheless, the Victory Day ceremonies present a clear risk. Such a concentration of troops and vehicles is vulnerable not only on the day of the parade itself but before and after, too: after all, that hardware must be stored somewhere.
“Of course, they care about drones which can fly from Ukraine, but most of these drones are being intercepted,” Crisis Group’s Ignatov told Al Jazeera. “They are more afraid of groups of people using small drones which are delivered to Russia, and used against targets inside Russia, like in Operation Spiderweb [in 2025] … Even if one or a couple of small drones hit a military parade, it may not cause a casualty, but it will have a demonstrative and psychological effect. I think what they care about is the political and psychological consequences of this.”
The Victory Day parade is a tradition from the communist era, an occasion on which the citizenry could catch a glimpse of Soviet statesmen waving from atop Lenin’s tomb, as well as a chance for the then-superpower to show off its military might. But when the USSR collapsed in December 1991, the parades were shelved for nearly two decades until they were revived by President Vladimir Putin in 2008.
Since the start of the full-scale war in 2022, the Victory Day parade has been scaled back again. Only a solitary Soviet-era T-34 tank symbolically rolled across Red Square in 2024, although other types of vehicles, such as armoured personnel carriers and mobile missile launchers, were present.
Last year’s proceedings, however, packed a little more pomp. Not only did the parade feature modern tanks, the TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flamethrower systems and Iskander ballistic missiles, but also Russian troops marching alongside Chinese soldiers.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping watched the show sitting beside Putin, one of 27 heads of state in attendance, including Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso. The turnout seemed to indicate that, despite international condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was not isolated.
‘Victory over Nazi barbarism’ or a ‘cynical distortion of history’
“A celebration of the Soviet and Allied defeat of Hitler’s Nazi-Fascist alliance, Victory Day is the most sacred date on Russia’s political calendar,” said British historian Geoffrey Roberts.
“As ever, Victory Day will be celebrated as a Soviet as well as a Russian victory – the result of the common struggle of all the peoples of the multinational USSR, not least millions of Ukrainians. Victory Day is for the Russian government a day of multiethnic unity. It is also a reminder of the international antifascist unity – of the Soviet-Western coalition during World War II that together saved the world from Nazi barbarism.”
The Eastern Front of the second world war, known as the Great Patriotic War in Russia, occupies a central place in Russian national memory. About 27 million Soviet citizens, including Russians, lost their lives in the conflict, more than any other country, and it was the Red Army’s soldiers that hoisted their flag over the Reichstag in Berlin in 1945. The German surrender was officially finalised on May 9.
This memory is evoked by Putin’s government today, claiming it is fighting “Nazis” on the battlefields of Ukraine.
“It appears that in modern Russia, 9 May has been twisted to actually support aggressive behaviour and militarisation,” Polishchuk said.
“It is a big source of pride which supports the notion that Russia is strong, undefeated, and will not tolerate disrespect from anyone. The more common ‘never again’ in reference to WWII became ‘we can do it again’ in Russia as a popular Victory Day slogan. This posturing becomes even more important during an ongoing war, as it supports another sort of reality – one where Russia has not made a mistake by invading Ukraine and is not currently failing to achieve its military objectives.”
According to the open-source intelligence project Oryx, more than 14,000 Russian tanks, APCs and other combat vehicles have been destroyed, captured, abandoned or otherwise lost since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Modern Ukraine considers Victory Day, as celebrated in Russia today, a cynical distortion of history and seeks to discourage foreign dignitaries from attending, Polishchuk added.
“Ukraine is generally more level-headed than Russia in sticking to targets that have a military objective, but this is indeed one of the instances where the [potential] attack appears largely symbolic,” she said. “Ukraine may decide to save resources this time and not attack Moscow – it could be a sane choice since air defence will be on high alert and security concerns may already discourage participation, yet Russian authorities have no choice but to try to reduce the risk regardless.”