Ukraines

BREAKINGBREAKING,

Kyiv’s mayor says the attacks hit Podilskyi and Obolonsky districts, causing large fires and damage to residential buildings.

Russian forces have bombed the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, killing a 12-year-old child and wounding at least 10 people, including several doctors, according to the city’s mayor.

The child was killed early on Thursday in Kyiv’s Podilskyi district, where rocket fragments hit a 16-storey building and caused a fire at a residential building, Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko wrote in a post on Telegram.

He said rescuers have pulled another child and her mother were pulled from the rubble in Podilskyi.

The attack also hit Kyiv’s Obolonsky district, with falling rocket debris causing a large fire at a non-residential building. “Cars are also on fire,” Klitschko wrote.

More soon…

A new Ukrainian surface-to-air missile appears to have made its first public appearance. The weapon has been widely identified as an apparent example of the Koral (also sometimes spelled Coral). The development of the missile has been known about for some time, as part of a broader effort to field homegrown ground-based air defense systems, something that the head of Ukraine’s Brave1 defense tech incubator has discussed with TWZ in the past.

Володимир Зеленський привітав працівників оборонно-промислового комплексу з професійним днем

While not specifically identified, the missile in question was included as part of an exhibition of Ukrainian-developed missiles, drones, missile-drone hybrids, and other uncrewed platforms, which were presented recently by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Other weapons that were shown in the exhibition, which was staged to mark the holiday of the country’s defense industry workforce, included the Neptune ground-launched cruise missile, the Areion missile-drone that was developed from the existing Palianytsia, and the Vilkha guided artillery rocket.

While we cannot completely rule out that the new missile is something different, it certainly has some of the hallmarks of previous artist’s concepts and mockups of the Koral that we have seen in the past. We also cannot rule out the possibility that some features are added for counter-intelligence purposes.

Based on the external appearance of the missile, it looks to be a test round, or even a production weapon, rather than a mockup, but again, we cannot be entirely certain of this, either.

What we do know is that Ukraine has an active domestic air defense missile development program.

As long ago as 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Luch design bureau presented the Koral missile, intended to arm medium-range air defense systems.

Luch initially stated that the Koral would have a range of 30 to 50 kilometers (18 to 31 miles). By 2023, this had apparently been revised to 100 kilometers (62 miles), which would push it into the long-range class, albeit at the lower end of it.

Other specifications previously mentioned by Luch include a weight of 300 kilograms (661 pounds) with a 25-kilogram (55-pound) warhead, and a speed of 3,600 kilometers per hour (2,237 miles per hour).

“Koral should work against ballistic [missile] targets. Of course, not all classes, but it must work on ballistic targets,” Oleh Korostelev, the head of the Luch design bureau, said at the time.

Korostelev added that the missile would be equipped with an Onyx active radar-homing seeker from the Ukrainian company Radionix. He also said that development of the new missile was “70 percent complete.”

In late 2023, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense identified air defense, including the continued development of the Koral surface-to-air missile, as one of its main priorities for 2024.

At that point, then-Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk outlined the requirement for mobile surface-to-air missile systems with a range of more than a hundred kilometers. This was assumed to include the Koral.

Last month, it was reported that Ukraine had signed an agreement to cooperate with Spain on air defense capabilities, including missiles. Intriguingly, both Luch and Radionix were said to be involved in this effort, which teamed them with Spain’s Sener Group, which makes components for IRIS-T missiles. As well as being air-launched, the IRIS-T is used in short-range air defense systems and has also been supplied to Ukraine for use in that mode.

Other details about the Koral missile remain a closely guarded secret.

It is said to make extensive use of various pre-existing subsystems, some of which are already proven, likely including the motor, inertial navigation system, and the radio and/or laser proximity fuze.

It is expected that the Koral will use a gas-dynamic control system, with conventional control surfaces allied with thrust-vectoring vanes in the exhaust nozzle, to ensure ‘endgame’ maneuverability. This is necessary for intercepting highly agile targets and those at extreme altitudes. However, while the original Koral mockup had Patriot PAC-3-style thrusters mounted at the forward end of the body to achieve extreme precision during the terminal phase of interception, these have disappeared from the latest version, which also features revised guidance fins with greater surface area.

Even before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had a need for a missile in this class.

For medium- and long-range surface-to-air missiles, Ukraine relied primarily on the Soviet-era S-300P (SA-10 Grumble), smaller numbers of the S-300V1 (SA-12 Gladiator/Giant) with an anti-ballistic missile capability, and the Buk-M1 (SA-11 Gadfly) mobile medium-range system. Of these, only a handful of surplus S-300Ps have been donated to Kyiv since the full-scale invasion. You can read about all these Soviet-era missiles here.

And another S-300V engagement, released as part of the same video.

From what I have seen, these are the third and fourth Ukrainian S-300V engagement videos released since the start of the war. pic.twitter.com/wPHnYbCQKP

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 9, 2025

Ukraine has also received more capable Western surface-to-air missiles in this class, most prominently the U.S.-made Patriot, as well as the Franco-Italian SAMP/T. However, these are once again available only in limited numbers, and their respective effectors are notably expensive.

At one time, the Koral was also proposed as the main air defense weapon for the Ukrainian Navy’s two future Ada class corvettes being built in Turkey. However, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense chose an MBDA alternative, and the future of those vessels remains questionable.

Regardless, Ukraine has an even greater demand for ground-based air defense systems than it did in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion, when we first looked at this issue in depth.

Since then, Russia has only stepped up its barrages of missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, putting an enormous burden on the available ground-based air defenses.

To help make up the shortfall, Ukraine, with U.S. support, embarked on the ‘FrankenSAM’ program, in which it leveraged existing capabilities within the Ukrainian Armed Forces arsenal to help rapidly provide badly needed additional air defenses.

There is, meanwhile, a growing list of ground-based air defense systems that fire repurposed Soviet-era heat-seeking R-73 air-to-air missiles as interceptors.

Other efforts have combined the R-73 with Western-developed launchers and sensors, like the containerized Gravehawk system, which the United Kingdom and Denmark developed for Ukraine.

Ukraine has also fielded modified 9K33 Osa (SA-8 Gecko) wheeled air defense vehicles armed with R-73 missiles instead of their usual 9M33 interceptors. This is notable for being a domestic initiative combining a Soviet-era surface-to-air missile vehicle with Soviet-era air-to-air missiles.

The Ukrainian military has also introduced R-73-armed uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), an application known locally as the Sea Dragon.

The Koral missile differs, however, in that it should provide a much greater range than most of the currently fielded FrankenSAMs, as well as an anti-ballistic missile capability. If all goes to plan, this will provide a replacement for longer-ranged Soviet-era systems, as well as a supplement to the costly Patriot and SAMP/T, the reliable supply of which cannot be guaranteed, certainly not in the numbers Ukraine requires.

For now, the Koral program remains very much shrouded in secrecy. We don’t yet know if the missile has been tested, let alone whether it’s in series production. We also have no idea about what kind of launchers it will be compatible with. Based on the FrankenSAM concept, it is conceivable that it might find its way onto existing S-300 series or even Patriot launchers.

Speaking in 2025, Andriy Hyrtseniuk, the head of Ukraine’s Brave1 defense tech incubator, told TWZ that “multiple” homegrown missiles of different classes had already been tested on firing ranges and “in some cases on the battlefield.”

At the very least, the apparent inclusion of the Koral in the recent public exhibition underscores the fact that Ukraine is still badly in need of additional air defenses. The recent conflict in the Middle East makes it even harder for Kyiv’s Western allies to keep up the already modest deliveries of more capable air defense systems. Clearly, Ukraine needs a surface-to-air missile in the class of the Koral, and one that’s available in sufficient numbers to help offset the challenge of repeated Russian attacks.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Kyiv has sought to leverage its expertise in downing Russian drones to help Gulf nations.

Qatar and Ukraine have signed a defence agreement seeking joint expertise on countering threats from missiles and drones, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Defence, as Iran continues attacking its Gulf neighbours.

The agreement was made on Saturday during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Doha, following his stop in the UAE earlier in the day.

Earlier on Saturday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates had also agreed to cooperate on defence, a day after signing a deal with Saudi Arabia during his visit to the kingdom on Thursday.

Kyiv has sought to leverage its expertise in downing Russian drones to help Gulf nations and has deployed anti-drone experts to the three countries Zelenskyy visited during his diplomatic tour.

Tehran insists it is targeting only US assets in the Gulf in retaliation for the US-Israeli war on Iran, but the assaults have upset relations as Gulf nations say civilians are being put at risk.

During the Ukrainian leader’s visit to Doha on Saturday, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defence Affairs Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman bin Hassan Al Thani met Ukraine’s Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) Rustem Umerov, and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andrii Hnatov.

“The agreement includes collaboration in technological fields, development of joint investments and the exchange of expertise in countering missiles and unmanned aerial systems,” Qatar’s Defence Ministry said in a statement during Zelenskyy’s visit.

The officials discussed the latest security developments. The defence agreement was signed by Qatari Armed Forces Lieutenant General Jassim bin Mohammed Al Mannai, and on the Ukrainian side by Hnatov, in the presence of the other officials.

“Ukraine is offering a cheap way of countering Iranian drones. Ukraine has been doing that for the past three and a half years because Russia has been firing Shahed drones since September 2023 at least, and it’s been downing them nearly every day,” said Al Jazeera’s Dmitry Medvedenko, reporting from Doha.

“The Gulf has been using Patriot and THAAD missiles primarily so far to down Iranian missiles and drones. Each Patriot missile costs almost $4m, while Ukraine is offering its expertise in downing drones for about $2,000 each.”

Decade-long cooperation

Ukraine has become one of the world’s leading producers of sophisticated, battlefield-proven drone interceptors as Russia has been attacking Kyiv with hundreds of thousands of Iranian drones since the start of its full-scale invasion of the neighbouring country in 2022.

On March 18, Zelenskyy said 201 anti-drone experts had been deployed to the Middle East.

Kyiv has proposed swapping its interceptors for the vastly more expensive air-defence missiles that Gulf countries are using to down Iranian drones. Kyiv says it needs more of them to fend off near-daily Russian missile attacks.

“What we can assume is that Ukraine is primarily interested in funding,” said Medvedenko.

He said that the US-Israeli war on Iran is “costing so many Patriot missiles”, which concerns Ukraine as its stocks will decline.

The Patriots are “a much better solution” for countering Russia’s ballistic missiles, he said.

With US-Ukraine talks set to resume in Florida, Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns that Russia is increasing its oil revenues through shadow fleets.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged allies to keep up sanctions pressure on Russia’s economy ahead of a second day of talks between Ukraine and United States officials on ways to end the more-than-four-year Russia-Ukraine war.

Russia’s representatives were not present at the talks, which opened on Saturday in Florida. They were originally expected to attend the negotiations, which had been due to take place in the United Arab Emirates, before the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The US delegation is being led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law.

In a post on X on Sunday, Zelenskyy called for tougher action against Moscow’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers and for it to be denied oil revenues.

“Over the past week, Russia launched nearly 1,550 attack drones against Ukraine, more than 1,260 guided aerial bombs, and two missiles. Over that same week, due to the easing of sanctions, Russia increased its crude oil sales to finance its war,” Zelenskyy wrote.

“Revenues give Russia a sense of impunity and the ability to continue the war. That is why pressure must continue, and sanctions must work. Russia’s shadow fleet must not feel safe in European waters or anywhere else,” he said.

The Ukrainian president added that tankers that “serve the war budget can and must be stopped and blocked, not just let go”.

The so-called shadow fleet is a network of vessels that continue to export oil and gas despite Western sanctions due to the ongoing war with Ukraine.

Last week, the French Navy seized an oil tanker in the Western Mediterranean, which France’s President Emmanuel Macron said was part of Russia’s shadow fleet, a network of vessels used to export oil despite Western sanctions.

The shadow fleet, which has grown following Western sanctions on Russia aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues, has helped to keep Russian oil exports flowing.

Talks continue

The last time the Ukrainian and Russian delegations met was in February in the Swiss city of Geneva, but no progress was made, as key issues surrounding territory remain unresolved.

Moscow has repeatedly said it will not agree to a peace deal that gives up the Ukrainian territory it has captured during the war. In contrast, Kyiv has said it will not agree to a deal that does not lead to the return of its territory.

Elements of the peace plan being promoted by the US include a presidential election in Ukraine, alongside territorial concessions.

Zelenskyy, whose term has already expired, ⁠is under renewed pressure from Trump to hold a vote ⁠as Washington pushes Kyiv towards a peace deal.

Ukrainian law bars wartime elections, but Zelenskyy has said Ukraine would be ready to hold democratic elections if the US secured a two-month ceasefire to allow time to prepare infrastructure and put security guarantees in ‌place.

Footage has emerged that purportedly shows a Saab 340 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft operating over Ukraine. If legitimate, this would be the first time that the radar plane has been seen in Ukrainian service, as far as we know, and would mark an important new capability for Ukraine, and one that we have discussed in depth in the past.

The video in question appears to have been first posted to a Russian Telegram account and clearly shows one of the aircraft, with its distinctive ‘balance beam’ radar fairing on the upper fuselage, in level flight during the daytime. The date and location of the video cannot be confirmed. It should also be noted that we cannot verify the footage itself, but there is nothing to immediately suggest it may have been doctored.

As mentioned, this appears to be the first time we have ever seen one of the Ukrainian Air Force’s two Saab 340 AEW&C planes, although there are suggestions that the type has been flying in Ukrainian skies for some time.

In April of last year, open-source flight-tracking platforms suggested that a possible Ukrainian radar plane was operating in the Lviv region, in western Ukraine, flying circuits and using the callsign WELCOME. Before that, an unidentified aircraft with the same callsign was observed operating in airspace near Poland and Hungary. If true, that suggests that the track over Lviv may have been a post-delivery acceptance or calibration flight. It’s also worth noting that transponders can be manipulated to provide false aircraft tracks, too.

Stockholm’s transfer of two Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft to Ukraine was announced in May 2024, as we reported at the time. The donation was part of the biggest Swedish military aid package for Ukraine up to that point, worth around $1.25 billion.

At the time, it was said that it would take around a year to train the aircrew and maintenance personnel, as well as prepare the ground facilities for the new aircraft.

The Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft is known in Swedish military service as the ASC 890 and alternatively as the S 100D Argus. The Swedish Air Force operated two of these aircraft, with both understood to have been provided to Kyiv. Another two ex-Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft are operated by Thailand, and another pair were sold to Poland, having previously been operated by the United Arab Emirates.

Royal Thai Air Force Gripen and Saab 340 Erieye AEW

For Ukraine, the significance of the Saab 340 AEW&C is hard to overstate.

It brings an entirely new capability for the Ukrainian Air Force, which has never operated any type of AEW&C platform.

The core of the aircraft is its Saab Erieye active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. Carried atop the fuselage, this can detect air and sea targets at ranges of up to around 280 miles, with the aircraft typically operating at an altitude of 20,000 feet. Reportedly, the AESA system can track up to 1,000 airborne and 500 surface targets simultaneously.

Erieye explained

All this data is handled by three mission crew: a mission control officer, a combat control operator, and a surveillance operator. It can also be downlinked to ground stations and to other aircraft, at least in theory, of which more later.

Unlike a surface-based air defense radar, the Erieye provides a ‘lookdown’ capability. Without the line-of-sight limitations of terrain, the radar will be especially useful for detecting low-flying Russian drones and cruise missiles. These are otherwise notably tricky targets, due to the low altitudes at which they fly and their small radar signatures. With that in mind, the aircraft should provide Ukraine’s air defenses with a huge situational-awareness boost.

Within its layered air defense network, Ukraine relies heavily on crewed fighter jets (as well as other aircraft platforms) to intercept drones and cruise missiles. Adding the Saab 340 AEW&C to the equation, the radar plane should be able to work as a fighter controller, detecting targets, prioritizing them, and then assigning them to the fighters for interception. Equally, this data could be provided to other air defense assets.

Especially useful in this regard would be the NATO-standard Link 16 datalink communications system. This would, in theory, be compatible with Ukraine’s F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighters, as well as Western-supplied ground-based air defense systems.

Український пілот про ефективність Mirage2000/Ukrainian Pilot on the Effectiveness of the Mirage2000

However, in late 2024, it was reported that the F-16s donated to Ukraine have had Link 16 systems removed or disabled, due to U.S. worries that they could end up in Russian hands.

This would deprive those fighters of a real-time air defense ‘picture’ sourced from the Erieye radar, and, at this point, it’s unclear if the Link 16 connectivity is available to Ukraine.

As of March 2025, it was reported that the delivery of the radar planes was on track, and they would be able to operate effectively with Ukraine’s F-16s.

“The timing of ASC 890 deliveries is linked to when certain modifications to F-16 fighters will be ready. There is no delay in the transfer of airborne early warning aircraft to Ukraine,” the Lithuanian Delfi news agency reported. This sounds very much like a reference to enabling the Link 16 connectivity.

However, even without Link 16, the Saab 340 AEW&C is able to provide much-enhanced air and sea surveillance for Ukraine.

Later versions of the Erieye radar also have a synthetic aperture radar and ground moving target indication (SAR/GMTI) capability, although it’s not clear if Ukraine has received that either. While SAR provides detailed image-like mapping of the ground at standoff ranges, GMTI detects and tracks movements on the ground over time, which would allow monitoring of Russian troop movements.

Should Ukraine’s ambitious plans to buy Saab Gripen fighters in the future materialize, the combination of these jets and the Saab 340 AEW&C could make a tailor-made solution for air defense and other missions.

For all its capabilities, the Saab 340 AEW&C will also be a prime target for Russia.

Russia’s own A-50 Mainstay AEW&C aircraft have been repeatedly targeted by Ukraine, in recognition of their value as force multipliers.

Russia was estimated to have nine A-50s in active service at the start of the full-scale invasion. Since then, there have been two combat losses, and another of these aircraft was damaged in a drone attack while on the ground at a base in Belarus, and its current status is unknown. More recently, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces claimed an A-50 had been hit in a strike on a maintenance facility in the Novgorod region of Russia.

This reality almost certainly means Ukraine operates the Saab radar planes from the far west of the country, likely moving them between airfields to reduce their exposure to airstrikes. Similar tactics are also employed by Ukrainian F-16s. With a maximum of two aircraft, round-the-clock coverage is also impossible, so one aircraft may well be kept on permanent ground alert to respond to particularly intensive Russian drone and missile barrages.

It is likely for this reason, too, that we have not seen anything of the Ukrainian Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft since their delivery.

With time, we will hopefully learn more about what these secretive assets are bringing to Ukraine’s air defenses and what kind of effect they are having on countering the near-constant Russian drone and missile attacks.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com