Explaining California’s billionaire tax: The proposals, the backlash and the exodus

The battle over a new tax on California’s billionaires is set to heat up in the coming months as citizens spar over whether the state should squeeze its ultra-rich to better serve its ordinary residents.

The proposed billionaire tax that triggered the tempest is still far from being approved by voters or even making the ballot, but the idea has already sparked backlash from vocal tech moguls — some of whom have already shifted their bases outside the state.

Under the Billionaire Tax Act, Californians worth more than $1 billion would pay a one-time 5% tax on their total wealth. The Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, the union behind the act, said the measure would raise much-needed money for healthcare, education and food assistance programs.

Other unions have piled on billionaires, targeting the rich in Los Angeles.

A group of Los Angeles labor unions said Wednesday that it is proposing a ballot measure to raise taxes on companies whose chief executive officers earn 50 times more than their median-paid employees.

Here is how this fight could continue to play out in the Golden State:

Who would be affected?

The California billionaire tax would apply to about 200 California billionaires who reside in the state as of Jan. 1. Roughly 90% of funds would go to healthcare and the rest to public K-14 education and state food assistance.

The tax, due in 2027, would exclude real estate, pensions and retirement accounts, according to an analysis from the Legislative Analyst’s Office, a nonpartisan government agency. Billionaires could spread out the tax payment over five years, but would have to pay more.

Which billionaires are already distancing themselves from California?

Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin

Google is still headquartered in California, but December filings to the California Secretary of State show other companies tied to Page and Brin recently converted out of the state.

One filing, for example, shows that one of the companies they managed, now named T-Rex Holdings, moved from Palo Alto to Reno last month.

Business Insider and the New York Times earlier reported on these filings. Google didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel

Thiel Capital, based in Los Angeles, announced in December it opened an office in Miami. The firm didn’t respond to a request for comment. Thiel recently contributed $3 million to the political action committee of the California Business Roundtable, which is opposing the ballot measure, records provided to the Secretary of State’s Office show.

Oracle co-founder and Chief Technology Officer Larry Ellison

Years before the wealth tax proposal, Ellison began pulling back from California, but he’s continued to distance himself farther from the state since the proposal emerged.

Last year, Ellison sold his San Francisco mansion for $45 million. The home on 2850 Broadway was sold off-market in mid-December, according to Redfin.

Oracle declined to comment.

DoorDash co-founder and Chief Technology Officer Andy Fang

Fang, who was born and raised in California, said on X that he loves the state but is thinking about moving.

“Stupid wealth tax proposals like this make it irresponsible for me not to plan leaving the state,” he said.

DoorDash didn’t respond to a request for comment.

What would it still take to become law?

To qualify for the ballot, proponents of the proposal, led by the healthcare union, must gather nearly 875,000 registered voter signatures and submit them to county elections officials by June 24.

If it makes it on the November ballot, the proposal would be the focus of intense scrutiny and debate as both sides have already lined up big war chests to bombard voters with their positions. A majority of voters would need to approve the ballot measure.

Lawyers for billionaires have also signaled the battle won’t be over even if the ballot measure passes.

“Our clients are prepared to mount a vigorous constitutional challenge if this measure advances,” wrote Alex Spiro, an attorney who has represented billionaires such as Elon Musk in a December letter to California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

What are the initiative’s chances?

It’s unclear if the ballot measure has a good chance of passing in November. Newsom opposes the tax, and his support has proved important for ballot measures.

In 2022, he opposed a ballot measure that would have subsidized the electric vehicle market by raising taxes on Californians who earn more than $2 million annually. The measure failed. The following year, he opposed legislation to tax assets exceeding $50 million. The bill was shelved before the Legislature could vote on it. A bill that would impose an annual tax on California residents whose net worth surpassed $30 million also failed in 2020.

However, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) have backed the wealth tax proposal, and Californians have passed temporary tax measures before. In 2012, they approved Proposition 30 to increase sales tax and personal income tax for residents with an annual income of more than $250,000.

Could it solve California’s problems?

The Legislative Analyst’s Office said in a December letter that the state would probably collect tens of billions of dollars from the wealth tax, but it could also lose other tax revenue.

“The exact amount the state would collect is very hard to predict for many reasons. For example, it is hard to know what actions billionaires would take to reduce the amount of tax they pay. Also, much of the wealth is based on stock prices, which are always changing,” the letter said.

California economist Kevin Klowden said the tax could create future budget problems for the state. “The catch is that this is a one-off fix for what is a systemic problem,” he said.

Supporters of the proposal said the measure would raise about $100 billion and pushed back against the idea that billionaires would flee.

“We see a lot of cheap talk from billionaires,” said UC Berkeley law professor Brian Galle, who helped write the proposal. “Some people do actually leave and change their behavior, but the vast bulk of wealthy people don’t, because it doesn’t make sense.”

Still, the pushback has been escalating.

Palo Alto-based venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya estimates that the lost revenues from the billionaires who have already left the state would lead to more losses in tax revenues than gained by the new tax.

“By starting this ill-conceived attempt at an asset tax, the California budget deficit will explode,” he posted on X. “And we still don’t know if the tax will even make the ballot.”

The union backing the initiative says “the billionaire exodus narrative” is “wildly overstated.”

“Right now, it appears the overwhelming majority of billionaires have chosen to stay in California past the Jan. 1 deadline,” said Suzanne Jimenez, chief of staff at SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West. “Only a very small percentage left before the deadline, despite weeks of Chicken Little talking points claiming a modest tax would trigger a mass departure.”

Times staff writer Seema Mehta contributed to this report.

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Northern Ireland Women: Will protracted manager search damage World Cup dream?

Rather bizarrely, the role of Northern Ireland Women’s manager is being advertised on the football recruitment agency Football Careers, external, which suggests the IFA do not currently have someone lined up to take over.

The job specification says the ideal candidate would be based in the United Kingdom or the Republic of Ireland and “will be tasked with inspiring and preparing elite players to compete on the international stage while shaping the future of women’s football”.

They must also “lead the senior women’s team in the next phase of its development and build on recent progress”.

What is not mentioned, is the fact that given the short lead in time to their first competitive game, the chosen candidate will be tasked with hitting the ground running.

That is easier said than done, especially in international football and with a squad that had an average age of 24.8 in their previous game against Iceland in October, whose domestic based players have not played since last year.

NI have qualifiers against Switzerland, Malta and Turkiye home and away in March, April and May.

Qualifying for the World Cup, which will be held in Brazil in 2027, follows the same format as the Nations League.

Only the four group winners in League A will automatically qualify for the finals, with the remaining teams having to go through the play-offs for the remaining eight places.

For NI to earn a play-off they must avoid finishing bottom of their group.

Switzerland reached the quarter-finals of last year’s Euros, Malta held NI to a 0-0 at Windsor in Euro 2025 qualifying, while Turkiye are unbeaten in their last five games.

Playing against the Swiss away first, arguably the strongest team in the group, will be a real baptism of fire for the next manager.

The new boss will be without top goalscorer and captain Simone Magill for this campaign as she is expecting her first child.

They will therefore be tasked with choosing a captain in the interim as well as quickly getting up to speed with the pool of players available and deciding who could replace Magill.

The next manager may also have to lean on the experience of Under-17 and Under-19 manager Gail Redmond for a rundown on the players and the state of the game in NI.

They will have just a week at most on the pitch to prepare players before the Switzerland game, so clear communication will be key and implementing grander tactical ideas may have to wait until further down the line.

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The US economy seems strong after a year of Trump, but is it really? | Donald Trump News

Over the past year, United States President Donald Trump has unleashed a slew of policies that have upended businesses, supply chains and jobs.

Yet the US economy seems to be growing at a healthy clip, and the unemployment rate is in a safe zone.

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The reality, experts say, is that the stock market boom has helped to mask deeper underlying problems in the economy.

Since taking office, Trump has imposed a range of tariffs on countries, including key trading partners, leading to predictions of inflation skyrocketing, manufacturing screeching to a halt and unemployment soaring.

None of those scenarios came true.

Inflation, while above the Federal Reserve’s target, was a modest 2.7 percent in December.

The unemployment rate was relatively low, at 4.4 percent, last month. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025, the fastest in two years.

“The shock and awe we anticipated just didn’t materialise,” Bernard Yaros, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, told Al Jazeera.

Yaros said the limited fallout could be attributed to the relative lack of retaliation by other countries and the stock market rally that quickly followed Trump’s dialling back of the steepest tariffs announced on “liberation day“.

Since Trump’s April 2 announcement, the stock market, which is heavily weighted towards the “magnificent seven” tech companies, has risen nearly 30 percent, boosting Americans’ paper wealth and encouraging households to loosen their purse strings.

Gains in net wealth have driven almost one-third of the rise in consumer spending since the COVID-19 pandemic, Oxford Economics said in a research briefing in October.

At the same time, the gains have not been distributed evenly.

The top 10 percent of earners are now estimated to account for roughly half of all spending, the highest proportion since officials began compiling data in 1989, according to Moody’s Analytics.

“The gains are going a lot to people in higher income brackets – they are the ones who have the stock portfolios – and are going to people in sectors and occupations tied to AI,” Marcus Noland, executive vice president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Al Jazeera.

“But, these numbers mask the unevenness in the growth in this economy.”

Net decline of workers

A careful parsing of the data reveals that unevenness. For instance, despite the impressive GDP numbers, that growth is not being accompanied by an increase in hiring.

While hospitality and healthcare added workers last year, retail, manufacturing and construction – sectors that rely heavily on migrants – all shed jobs.

As a result of the Trump administration’s mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and tightening of legal migration pathways, the US last year experienced negative net migration for the first time in at least half a century, according to a Brookings Institution analysis.

“And through this very public and brutal way of going about deportations, they have discouraged illegal immigration, but also intimidated immigrants in the US,” Noland said, adding that the US workforce is projected to see a net decline of two million workers this year.

The “bifurcation” in the US economy is also being felt across the business world, with smaller companies lacking the deep pockets to stockpile inventories or negotiate with suppliers in the face of increased tariffs.

“The surge in policy uncertainty this year has had an outsize effect on smaller firms,” Oxford Economics said in a November report.

These firms are also seeing little benefit from the boom in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry since revenues have been driven by capital-intensive chip manufacturing and cloud services.

While AI proponents believe the world is on the cusp of huge gains in productivity that could dramatically raise living standards, there are concerns about large numbers of people being put out of work.

“This could be the new norm – jobless growth. That’s one reason people are not feeling so great,” Yaros said.

“While a lot of hype about AI and productivity benefits from AI are still to come, we think that is a risk to the labour market if it continues to hold back hiring.”

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Brits Critics’ Choice: Jacob Alon crowned winner

PA Media Jacob Alon is looking up at a Brit Award which they are holding in their hand. They wear a orange ripped top and have brown curly hair. PA Media

Jacob Alon joins the ranks of Adele and Sam Fender who have previously won the award

Scottish singer-songwriter Jacob Alon has been named as the winner of the Brits Critics’ Choice Award.

The Fife-born musician saw off competition from soul singer Sienna Spiro and east London artist Rose Gray, known for her infectious dance-pop, to claim the title.

Formerly named Brits Rising Star, the award showcases up-and-coming talent selected by a panel of industry experts.

A shocked Jacob described the win as “bonkers” as the news was announced on BBC Radio 1’s New Music Show.

Jacob joins previous winners including Adele, Sam Fender and The Last Dinner Party.

‘I never would have expected it to get this far’

The musician, who identifies as non-binary and uses they/them pronouns, said they didn’t think they were “Brits material” but were “really glad” the critics believed they were.

Jacob built a reputation in Edinburgh’s folk scene after a difficult stint at university and a turbulent period in London.

The storytelling quality of the genre influenced debut album In Limerence, which discusses failed romantic relationships.

Jacob thanked those who had recognised their work, saying: “When I started making this album, when I write songs, it’s so far away from any of this stuff and I never would have expected it to get this far.

“It feels like I’m getting away with something that I shouldn’t be getting away with.

“So thanks for making me feel cheeky and very, very proud.”

BBC Studios Jacob is sitting on a stool playing a guitar and singing into a microphone. They are performing barefoot in a pair of golden-feathered trousers and a red shawl.BBC Studios

The singer gained wider recognition following their appearance on Jools Holland

The musician said their family were “buzzing” when they were nominated, but feels their mum would have been “just as proud” if it had been a school assembly award.

Jacob discovered a love of performing from a young age at a school talent show, but initially studied theoretical physics and medicine at Edinburgh University.

After spending nights cramming for exams in the library and realising academia wasn’t the world for them, Jacob eventually dropped out.

As many have done in the past, Jacob moved to London to pursue music, but it was after returning to Scotland that things clicked into place.

Jacob gained wider recognition following a November 2024 appearance on Jools Holland’s BBC 2 show, which was booked after the singer had released only one single, Fairy in a Bottle.

The song, performed on the programme barefoot, in a pair of golden-feathered trousers and a red shawl, was followed by a debut album last May.

It secured a place on the Mercury Prize shortlist, and Jacob also became the first Scottish act to be named BBC Introducing Artist of the Year.

The Brit award, in partnership with BBC Radio 1, has reverted to its original name this year to acknowledge the importance of critical acclaim for artists in the early stages of their career.

The Brit Awards will be broadcast live from Manchester’s Co-op Live on Saturday 28 February.

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Everything we know so far about Egg in A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms

A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms episode 1 introduces mysterious stable boy Egg, whom Ser Duncan the Tall meets on his journey.

*Warning – this article contains spoilers for A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms episode 1.*

The opening episode of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms has landed on Sky and HBO, drawing Game of Thrones enthusiasts eager to experience the latest prequel series. Set approximately 90 years prior to Game of Thrones and over 70 years following House of the Dragon, the programme chronicles the adventures of humble hedge knight Ser Duncan the Tall as he undertakes a chivalrous journey.

According to the IMDb description for A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: “A century before GOT, Ser Duncan the Tall, and his squire, Egg, wandered through Westeros while the Targaryen dynasty ruled the Iron Throne, and dragons were still remembered. Great destinies and enemies await the incomparable friends.”

In the debut episode, viewers witness Ser Duncan entering himself into a potentially transformative tournament that could alter his fortunes completely. Throughout his journey across Westeros, presently under Targaryen rule, he crosses paths with a young boy and aspiring squire called Egg.

Who is Egg in A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms?

The knight’s initial meeting with Egg occurs at an inn, where he learns the boy is a stable hand whose mother has died, reports the Express.

Upon learning that Ser Duncan is bound for the tournament, Egg eagerly requests to travel alongside the knight to Ashford and begs to serve as his squire.

Though initially hesitant, Ser Duncan ultimately consents to taking Egg on as his squire (provisionally) and the duo embark on their quest for honour and recognition. The origins of Egg and how he ended up at the stable remain shrouded in mystery. Could Egg be hiding a secret about his past?

A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms is based on George R. R. Martin’s Tales of Dunk and Egg, so while we may already know the answers, we’re keeping this a book spoiler-free zone.

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TV lovers can now get Sky TV, Netflix and Discovery+ for £15 per month with the new Essential TV bundle.

This delivers live and on-demand TV without a satellite dish or aerial and includes hit shows like A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms

Who plays Egg in A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms?

Young actor Dexter Sol Ansell, aged 11, takes on the role of Egg in A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, starring alongside former rugby union player Peter Claffey, who portrays Ser Duncan.

Dexter already boasts an impressive acting CV, having previously appeared as Young Coriolanus Snow in The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, and David Saunders in The Midwich Cuckoos.

He first graced TV screens in the ITV soap Emmerdale in 2019, featuring as Lucas Taylor in 14 episodes until 2021.

A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms airs weekly on Mondays at 3am and again at 9pm on Sky Atlantic and NOW.

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What Venezuela Reveals About International Law

From the studios of New York City, late-night television has long presented itself as more than entertainment. It has been a place where satire meets accountability. After January 3rd, the day US forces bombed Caracas and captured Nicolás Maduro, for the first time that familiar spotlight turned suddenly towards Venezuela.

Much of the humor that followed focused, understandably, on the actions of the United States. For American comedians, criticizing their own government, and how it deploys public money and military power, is not only natural, it is necessary. But these days, that aspiration of accountability has become hard to watch for Venezuelans who have been turned into a backdrop for these jokes.

On Late Night, Seth Meyers joked about Donald Trump sharing a post that listed him as president of Venezuela, adding that “not many people can say they were the worst president in the history of two countries.” While a joke like that might land with the US audience, for Venezuelans it collapses two profoundly unequal realities into a punchline: equating the failures of a democratic system with life under an authoritarian regime marked by torture, political imprisonment, and forced exile. Similar tones appeared elsewhere, including when Jimmy Kimmel casually placed Trump and Maduro in the same category of “dictators”. Of course, the joke was never meant for Venezuelans. It was written for Americans. But in a media ecosystem where clips travel instantly across borders, the message is dangerous to Americans, Venezuelans and the whole internet.

Watching the reactions that followed the capture of Maduro has been difficult. For many people, especially those who grew up in countries with free media, functioning institutions, real alternation of power, and where dissent does not lead to imprisonment or torture, these guarantees feel not only universal, but almost invisible. They are so deeply embedded that they are taken for granted. 

Over time, this invisibility becomes a form of privilege. The privilege of expressing political opinions without fear. The privilege of knowing your loved ones will return home for dinner. The privilege of discussing marxist theory and the perils of capitalism over expensive wine without having lived under regimes like those in Cuba, North Korea, Iran or, in this case, Venezuela. The privilege of not being able to imagine what life under such conditions looks like, because it feels, and is, so remote.

Three decades after Rwanda, amplified by social media, we now have a global civil society passionately defending international law. This advocacy matters.

This privilege shapes how international law is defended: as an abstract principle, rather than a fragile protection that often fails those who need it most.

Nice principles, bad timing

In recent days, international law has returned forcefully to the center of public debate. We are told it was violated. Foreign Affairs magazine warns of “a world without rules.” Social media debates argue that Venezuelans should have solved their problems internally, or that the United States should have respected international law. The European Union and UN bodies have issued statements expressing that they are “deeply shocked” and “strongly condemn” recent events. Political leaders have raised alarms about the dangers posed to the international system. Outrage has been swift and loud.

But what we, Venezuelans, find jarring is not the concern itself, but its timing.

For years, Venezuelans exhausted every institutional mechanism available to seek change: elections, negotiations, protests. Along the way, we documented abuses, appealed to international bodies, fled the country, and buried our dead. In response, the multilateral system produced reports, procedural delays, symbolic gestures—and, more often than not, only silence. Sanctions imposed by some states were loudly criticized and falsely blamed for empty shelves and shortages that were the result of years of mismanagement, corruption, and repression.

Meanwhile, Maduro’s regime systematically withdrew from scrutiny, obstructing or disengaging from international and regional mechanisms where it might have faced even limited accountability. 

Today’s alarm stands in stark contrast to yesterday’s indifference.

Venezuela’s case, however, is not the first. In 1994, despite clear warnings, between 500,000 and 800,000 people were murdered in Rwanda while the international community debated mandates and political costs. “Never again” became a defining phrase of international law to ask for forgiveness after the genocide. And it has been forgiveness that has marked international law’s recent history. From Bosnia to Darfur, from Syria to Myanmar, atrocities have unfolded while international law remained intact on paper. 

Recent history has shown that the UN remains profoundly ill-equipped to address situations in which the state itself becomes the main perpetrator of violence against its own population.

Three decades after Rwanda, amplified by social media, we now have a global civil society passionately defending international law. This advocacy matters. But recognizing it as a privilege is fundamental. In the case of Venezuela, much of this defense comes from the comfort of countries where having political opinions carries no personal risk, where dissent does not lead to prison, torture, or death. In this case it becomes easier to defend legal principles than to confront the human cost of their repeated failure.

The problem, then, is not that international law matters too much, but that it does selectively. When the United Nations was created, along with its Charter and the foundations of modern international law, its central purpose was to prevent the repetition of the horrors of World War II. This meant privileging diplomacy and peaceful dispute resolution over the use of force between states. Without a question through that lens, US military action in Caracas contradicts the very foundations of the system, and that is a very legitimate concern.

But what critics fail to acknowledge is that the UN was designed primarily to manage conflicts between states. Not as a way to govern those relationships, but a way to channel and address challenges in a world in a state of anarchy. Recent history has shown that it remains profoundly ill-equipped to address situations in which the state itself becomes the main perpetrator of violence against its own population. In such cases, sovereignty ceases to be a shield for people and becomes a shield for power.

Because it has become too often a system that protects sovereignty over people, stability over justice. As such, it has become an instrument that authoritarian regimes learn to weaponize, while its costs are borne by the most vulnerable.

The space opened by bombs

In Venezuela, people do not live in fear of foreign bombs from the US. They live in fear of empty shelves, intelligence services, arbitrary detention, torture, and death. Any discussion that elevates abstract legal violations while sidelining this reality risks becoming not principled, but condescending.

The same is true of narratives that reduce everything to cynical explanations about US interests, as if Venezuelans were naïve about power or unaware of geopolitics. We are not confusing interests with ideals. What many of us recognize is that a long-frozen status quo, one that normalized repression and indefinite stagnation, has been disrupted. That disruption does not guarantee democracy. But it opens a space that did not exist before, and gives us hope.

The key challenge moving forward is not whether Venezuelans should patiently wait for the international community to act according to international law while continuing to document abuses. It is whether defenders of the system are willing to acknowledge its limits and to stop confusing inaction with virtue.

International law is worth defending. But defending it without reckoning with its persistent failures in countries like Venezuela simply showcases a position of privilege—one that Venezuelans, or Iranians, can no longer afford.

Elie Wiesel warned in his address to the US Congress that indifference is never neutral. It always benefits the oppressor, never the victim. Those who defend international law still have an opportunity to prove that they truly care about the people it was meant to protect. A couple of big actions that go further than strongly condemning or being shocked is to push for the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners, enforce asset freezes against the regime and its enablers, and stop treating accountability as optional. And they could do so consistently—in Venezuela, in Iran, and wherever international law is invoked loudly, but applied timidly.

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NFL: Buffalo Bills sack coach Sean McDermott after Super Bowl wait goes on

Analysis by BBC NFL reporter Ben Collins

McDermott ended an 18-year play-off drought in his first season with Buffalo and helped them become post-season regulars, but the Kansas City Chiefs proved to be his nemesis.

The Chiefs have knocked the Bills out of the play-offs in four of the past five seasons, on the way to establishing a dynasty that produced three Super Bowl wins.

With the Chiefs failing to make this season’s play-offs – along with AFC rivals Baltimore and Cincinnati – the path was supposedly clear for McDermott to lead the Bills to their first Super Bowl since losing four straight from 1991 to 1994.

But while this was McDermott’s best chance yet, the Bills’ roster was their weakest since Allen was drafted in 2018, and it was relying too much on the NFL’s reigning Most Valuable Player to keep producing moments of individual magic.

The re-emergence of New England meant the Bills relinquished the AFC East title so had to settle for a wildcard spot and go on the road in the play-offs.

And despite winning at Jacksonville on Wildcard Weekend, they came unstuck in the Divisional Round at Denver.

Buffalo became just the fourth team to win a play-off game in six straight seasons. A telling fact for McDermott is that the other three teams all claimed three Super Bowl wins during those runs.

He and Allen, on the other hand, have the unwanted records of winning the most play-off games by a head coach and quarterback (eight) without reaching the NFL’s title decider.

At 29, time is still on Allen’s side. The Bills are about to move into a new stadium and some high-profile coaches have come available in the latest hiring cycle.

So the team felt that by acting now, it allows a new coach to rebuild the roster and gives Allen the best chance of leading Buffalo into a new era that finally delivers a Super Bowl win.

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Reports: Massive fire at Karachi shopping plaza kills 14, dozens remain missing

Rescue personnel seen at the site of a fire at Gul Plaza in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday. Officials said Monday that at least 14 people were killed in the blaze. Photo by Shahzaib Akber/EPA

Jan. 19 (UPI) — At least 14 people are dead following a massive fire that erupted at a shopping plaza in Karachi over the weekend, Pakistani officials said Monday, while dozens remain missing, according to reports.

The fire began Saturday night at the Gul Plaza on M.A/ Jinnah Road and was mostly put out 24 hours later, permitting a search for survivors through the remains of the building, Dawn reported.

Authorities said at least 14 people were dead, with between 54 and 59 people remaining unaccounted for, The Express Tribune reported.

Deputy Inspector General South Asad Raza told reporters that police have obtained the cell numbers of the 59 people missing and have traced the locations of 26 of them near the plaza.

“Further scrutiny is underway,” he said, according to The Tribune.

Gul Plaza is a prominent multi-story shopping center with more than 1,200 shops in Gazdarabad, which is part of the historic Saddar Town district of Karachi, Pakistan’s most populous city.

The cause of the fire is not yet known, though some officials suspect it may have erupted from an electrical short circuit.

“It is too early to determine the exact cause,” Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah said.

Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said in a statement that he has directed federal institutions to provide “complete support” to the local government.

“In this time of grief and hardship, we stand with the affected people and the Sindh government,” he said.

“A coordinated and effective system is absolutely essential to bring fires under control in densely populated urban areas in a timely manner.”

Search operations were continuing.

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The $200 Billion Handshake Between Modi and MBZ

NEWS BRIEF India and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to a major strategic upgrade, targeting a doubling of bilateral trade to $200 billion within six years and strengthening defense cooperation during high-level talks in New Delhi. The meeting also finalized a key 10-year liquefied natural gas supply deal, cementing a partnership that serves both […]

The post The $200 Billion Handshake Between Modi and MBZ appeared first on Modern Diplomacy.

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How many episodes are there in A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms?

How many episodes are there in A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms? – The Mirror


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Minneapolis mayor calls threat of sending soldiers unconstitutional

The mayor of Minneapolis said Sunday that sending active-duty soldiers into Minnesota to help with an immigration crackdown is a ridiculous and unconstitutional idea as he urged protesters to remain peaceful so the president won’t see a need to send in the U.S. military.

Daily protests have been ongoing throughout January since the Department of Homeland Security ramped up immigration enforcement in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul by bringing in more than 2,000 federal officers.

In a diverse neighborhood where Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers have been frequently seen, U.S. postal workers marched through on Sunday, chanting: “Protect our routes. Get ICE out.”

The Pentagon has ordered about 1,500 active-duty soldiers based in Alaska who specialize in operating in arctic conditions to be ready in case of a possible deployment to Minnesota, two Defense officials said Sunday.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans, said two infantry battalions of the Army’s 11th Airborne Division have been given prepare-to-deploy orders.

One Pentagon official said the troops are standing by to deploy to Minnesota should President Trump invoke the Insurrection Act, as he has threatened.

The rarely used 19th century law would allow him to send military troops into Minnesota, where protesters have been confronting federal immigration agents for weeks. He has since backed off the threat, at least for now.

“It’s ridiculous, but we will not be intimidated by the actions of this federal government,” Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “It is not fair, it’s not just, and it’s completely unconstitutional.”

Thousands of Minneapolis citizens are exercising their 1st Amendment rights and the protests have been overwhelmingly peaceful, Frey said.

“We are not going to take the bait. We will not counter Donald Trump’s chaos with our own brand of chaos here,” Frey said.

Gov. Tim Walz has mobilized the Minnesota National Guard, although no units have been deployed to the streets.

Peter Noble joined dozens of other U.S. Postal Service workers Sunday on their only day off from their mail routes to march against the immigration crackdown. They passed by the place where an immigration officer shot and killed Renee Nicole Good, a U.S. citizen and mother of three, during a Jan. 7 confrontation.

“I’ve seen them driving recklessly around the streets while I am on my route, putting lives in danger,” Noble said.

Letter carrier Susan Becker said she came out to march on the coldest day since the crackdown started because it’s important to keep telling the federal government she thinks what it is doing is wrong. She said people on her route have reported ICE breaking into apartment buildings and tackling people in the parking lots of shopping centers.

“These people are by and large citizens and immigrants. But they’re citizens, and they deserve to be here; they’ve earned their place and they are good people,” Becker said.

A Republican U.S. House member from Minnesota called for Walz to tone down his comments about fighting the federal government and help the federal law enforcement efforts.

Many of the ICE officers in Minnesota are neighbors just doing the jobs they were sent to do, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told WCCO-AM in Minneapolis.

“These are not mean-spirited people. But right now, they feel like they’re under attack. They don’t know where the next attack is going to come from and who it is. So people need to keep in mind this starts at the top,” Emmer said.

Across social media, videos have been posted of federal officers spraying protesters with pepper spray, knocking down doors and forcibly taking people into custody. On Friday, a federal judge ruled that immigration officers can’t detain or tear-gas peaceful protesters who aren’t obstructing authorities, including when they’re observing the officers during the Minnesota crackdown.

Brook writes for the Associated Press. AP writers Konstantin Toropin in Washington, Steve Karnowski in Minneapolis, Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations and Jeffrey Collins in Columbia, S.C., contributed to this report.

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Tottenham: Thomas Frank ‘feeling the trust’ of the board despite pressure

At least one member of the club’s executive team has actively raised the option of ending Frank’s reign in recent weeks.

Spurs are 14th in the Premier League, having won just seven of their 22 games this season, and large sections of the supporters seem to have already lost faith in the former Brentford boss.

He was taunted by his own fans with chants of “you’re getting sacked in the morning” at the weekend, but Frank believes he can win back the supporters’ faith.

“As long as we win football matches and make sure we win enough of them, everyone will support us,” he said.

“It is not about me. It is about supporting the team, the players.”

Frank added he only has 11 outfield players from the usual first-team squad available for the match against Dortmund.

He said: “We need everyone to support us from minute one. Especially the team, especially the players. If we get that support, anything can happen. Magic can happen.”

Tottenham are 11th in the Champions League and a win against Dortmund is vital to continue their hopes of qualifying automatically for the knockout stages.

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Trump pins push for Greenland on not receiving Nobel Peace Prize

Jan. 19 (UPI) — President Donald Trump told European leaders that one reason he has ramped up his push for the United States to acquire Greenland is because he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump sent a text to Norway’s prime minister and an email to several European ambassadors late Sunday saying that peace is no longer his highest priority as he pursues Greenland, Denmark’s claim to which he continues to deny, the New York Times reported.

“Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America,” he wrote.

In a statement on Monday, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stone confirmed that he received the text from Trump, which was a response to a message he’d sent the president on behalf of himself and Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland.

“In our message to Trump, we conveyed our opposition to his announced tariff increases against Norway, Finland and select other countries,” Stone and Stubb said in their initial text. “We pointed to the need to de-escalate and proposed a telephone conversation between Trump, Stubb and myself on the same day.”

In the statement, Stone also noted that the Nobel Peace Prize is given out by an independent committee — the Norwegian Nobel Committee — and not by Norway’s government.

Since the start of the year, Trump and his administration have intensified the pursuit of Greenland to become part of the United States.

The reasoning largely has been pinned on the island being “essential” to defense of the United States and, according to Trump, the world.

Greenland is a self-governing territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, and has been for hundreds of years, and the United States long has operated a military base on the island. That base has become more strategically important as new shipping lanes have emerged nearby because of global climate change..

A high level meeting has been held between Vice President JD Vance and the Danish and Greenland foreign ministers, however they — and other leaders of NATO countries — have insisted that the United States will not acquire the country.

After the meeting, several European countries started to send troops to Greenland, prompting Trump to threaten tariffs on eight NATO nations starting Feb. 1 if they do not remove the troops and support his bid for the territory.

While Trump has said he would like to buy Greenland, he has also mused lately on the possibility of taking it by military force.

When asked by NBC News how far he would go to acquire the territory and whether he would use force, Trump said “no comment.”

Left, to right, Greenland Minister of Foreign Affairs Vivian Motzfeldt, Denmark Minister for Foreign Affairs Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, meet in the office of Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, for a meeting with members of the Senate Arctic Caucus in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on Wednesday. President Donald Trump maintains that he wants the United States to control Greenland. Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI | License Photo

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CHAMBA: Venezuelan Resistance Through a Photographic Lens

Caracas, January 17, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan photographer Rome Arrieche saw an exhibit of his photographic project “CHAMBA: Portraits of the Venezuelan People” inaugurated in New York City on January 10.

Arrieche, who joined the event via conference call, told Venezuelanalysis that the project was borne out of a desire to “make the Venezuelan working class visible.”

“There is a preconceived idea of Venezuela centered on whiteness and beauty queens, but we are a very diverse country,” he said. “The poor and the working class have historically been made invisible in the mainstream media.”

Arrieche explained that the photographic project has three main fronts: a book, the public exhibition at The People’s Forum in New York, and the printing of selected works and merchandise. 

According to Arrieche, the title “chamba,” a Venezuelan slang word for work, or labor, was chosen to pay tribute to the Venezuelan people who have resisted and organized under US economic sanctions. The photos were taken in different regions of Venezuela, some of them as part of the “Communal Resistance Against the Imperialist Blockade” magazine series by the Venezuelan Anti-Blockade Observatory.

“I have always made clear that I dedicate the pictures I take to the working people. It’s an homage to the working class,” Arrieche went on to add. “I go out to photograph my people, the people who refuse to surrender.”

Arrieche further said that he sees himself as part of the reality that he documents, and that this kind of perspective is hard to find in Venezuela. “Photography is my form of activism, of fighting against capital, against oppression, against imperialism.”

The New York City exhibit inauguration, which featured Venezuela’s UN Ambassador Samuel Moncada, came days after the US bombed Venezuela and kidnapped President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores.

Arrieche argued that the exhibit and his work are “more relevant than ever” to counter mainstream narratives demonizing Venezuela. 

“We have seen a fascist discourse stigmatizing Venezuelans as criminals or drug traffickers, especially in the US,” he affirmed. “In this key moment in history, it is important to show the Venezuelan people for what they truly are: humble, hard-working and resilient.”

CHAMBA: Portraits of the Venezuelan People will remain open to the public until February 13 at The People’s Forum in NYC (320 W 37th St). Rome Arrieche can be followed on Instagram.



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Europe’s ‘top trending city break’ destination has been revealed with flights for £15 and beers for £2.17

FOR fashion, art, culture and drinks for under €2.50, there’s an Italian city you need to visit.

Milan has always been a popular spot for Brits, but it was recently named Time Out’s trending city break destination for 2026.

Milan is the top trending city break destination of 2026 according to Time OutCredit: Alamy
The tradition of aperitivo means your cocktail will come with free snacksCredit: Alamy

Time Out said: “Although it is the second-largest city in the country, it’s easily explored in just a few days because a lot of the most famous attractions – such as the Duomo cathedral and historical centre – are pretty tightly packed together.

“This makes it walkable and compact without feeling small or claustrophobic. It goes without saying that it’s also a great place to go shopping.”

As for why it’s trending this year, Time Out said it’s because of one event in particular, the Winter Olympics which start on February 6, 2026.

It said to expect “excitement” and “busy bars” while the competition is taking place until February 22, 2026.

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If you fancy heading to the Italian city, it’s actually just two hours from the UK.

In January, you can fly to Milan from London Stansted or Birmingham Airport from £14.99.

When you land, there’s plenty to do in the city, but we have some top places for your must-see list – and we’ll start with the food.

While Milan didn’t invent aperitivo, it is considered the capital of the modern version – and plenty of bars offer it.

Aperitivo refers to pre-dinner drinks and snacks which you can usually indulge in between the hours of 6-9pm – it’s intended to ‘open’ the stomach before dinner.

And if you’re savvy enough, you could dine on aperitivo all evening and not spend a single euro on dinner.

1970s bar La Strada has a VW campervan bar insideCredit: http://www.likealocalguide.com

Those who love a cocktail will be pleased as aperitivo usually involves drinking a Milanese classic like an Aperol Spritz or Negroni made from gin, Campari and vermouth.

Then comes the food as the drink will be accompanied by complimentary nibbles like olives, nuts, cheeses, bruschetta or even small pizzas.

At most spots in Milan, you buy a cocktail and get a few light bite alongside it, but some places offer huge buffets.

At BhangraBar, you can order one cocktail for €15 (£13.01) and get unlimited access to the buffet everyday between 5-10pm.

At La Hora Feliz, you can buy a cocktail and head up to the buffet which has pastas, salads, polenta, and even tiramisu which you can get for the cost of one drink which is around €10 (£8.67).

If cheap and cheerful bars are what you’re after, head to GhePensiMI where you can get beers for €2.50 (£2.17) on Tuesdays until 9pm.

Another, called La Strada, has a great and very cheap offer of €3 (£2.60) drinks and aperitivo.

It has a 1960s-style VW campervan bar too.

If you fancy a beer, head to Al Confine which has 10 on tap – on Friday and Saturday nights, drinks are €3.50 (£3.04)..

Or head to the waterways which you’ll see on the outskirts of the city – but nowadays it’s where you’ll find great bars.

One of these is Frizzi E Lazzi on the outskirts of Navigli, it’s a 70s bar and is another bar where you can enjoy a €3 glass of wine with aperitivo – and it has live music.

Naviglio Grande canal, which is the largest in the city, connects to the Ticino River and dates back to 1177 – making it one of the oldest of its kind in Europe – now it’s completely transformed.

You can even get mini pizzas with an aperitivoCredit: Alamy
The Navigli district is where you’ll find trendy bars and plenty of aperitivo optionsCredit: Alamy

That’s the district that Travel Writer Martha Griffiths explored on her trip to the city, she explained: “I spent a couple of days in Milan to explore its famous aperitivo scene and it was an incredibly affordable way of experiencing local life. 

“On the first night, we headed into the trendy Navigli district and sat down at a small bar. I ordered an Aperol spritz, which was accompanied by olives, nuts and breadsticks. 

“I was expecting these to be added on to our bill but was pleasantly surprised to find out it was complimentary and only cost me 7 euros for the drink.”

Martha continued: “The second night, we found a bar in Brera, an area renowned for its elegant atmosphere. 

“Again, I ordered an Aperol spritz, which this time came alongside a heartier range of bites, including cured meat, antipasti and bruschetta for just the two of us. 

“We ordered a second drink here and to our surprise, they brought out another round of snacks this time, including arancini bites.  

“We spent around an hour and a half here and it was the perfect setting for a relaxing pre-dinner ritual. Each Aperol was €10 (£8.67) and given the snacks provided, it was incredibly good value, costing far less than it would in the UK. 

“Everyone knows of the tapas tradition in Spain but I’ve only ever been given free crisps or nuts with a drink there – in Italy, their version can get you the equivalent of a whole lunch for free.”

Deputy Travel Editor Kara Godfrey visited Milan recently – here’s what she got up to…

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Milan might be known for its fashion week and F1 but it’s also a fantastic place for a weekend break.

Both Ryanair and easyJet often have bargain flights for as little as £15 each way.

And two of the cities most beautiful spots are the Galleria Vittorio Emanuele II and Duomo, both free to see (although it costs to go inside the latter).

Being Italy, expect fantastic food – Pizza AM is the best if you like laidback vibes and free prosecco.

For drinks, Iter is a locally loved bar just off the Navigli canal, or head to the fun Bar Luce, designed by Wes Anderson himself and full of pink cakes and pinball machines.

My top tip? Ditch the very expensive Ubers for the trams. Even the vintage wooden ones go across the centre of the city for just a few euros.

For more on city breaks, here are the 39 of the best in Europe – and the no.1 is very cheap.

Plus, On the Beach has launched new affordable city breaks to 188 destinations from £83pp.

Milan is the top trending city break according to Time OutCredit: Alamy

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2026 Oscar nominations predictions: Expert picks in 11 categories

The holidays are over, but the Christmas Adventurers no doubt are still celebrating. The “Marty Supreme” blimp rests, for now, in its hanger. Chloé Zhao is clearing her mind. And I still have that Neil Diamond song stuck in my head.

All of which brings us to the unveiling of nominations for the 98th Oscars on Thursday. Might Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” or Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” tie or even break the record for most nods for a single movie? Fourteen is the magic number, held by “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land.” Somewhere, James Cameron is clutching his crown tightly.

Here are my predictions in key categories.

Picture

Leonardo DiCaprio walks in a dark hoodie as Bob Ferguson in drama thriller "One Battle After Another"

“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”

Possible surprise: “Weapons”
Possible snub: “It Was Just an Accident”

No “Wicked: For Good”? No “Avatar: Fire and Ash”? The pair of high-profile sequels failed to live up to their predecessors, critically and commercially, leaving the door open for the academy’s international contingent — 24% of Oscar voters live outside the United States — to wave the flags of their countries. The last two years we’ve had two international features nominated for best picture. “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” made the cut in 2024; “Emilia Pérez” and “I’m Still Here” found their way in last year. It’s possible we see a record three this year: France‘s “It Was Just an Accident,” Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” and Norway’s “Sentimental Value.”

Voters do have other options for the back end of the 10-picture slate. “F1” looks on track to earn Oscar nods for film editing, sound and visual effects. Maybe that below-the-line love catapults it in. Zach Cregger’s “Weapons” earned a place at the Producers Guild, even with writer-director Cregger off filming “Resident Evil,” removing him from the awards circuit. Perhaps Aunt Gladys has been busy casting spells in her bedroom, working her magic on the film’s behalf, though I’m not sure how she’d obtain a personal item from more than 10,000 voters. She’d have to be busier than Diane Warren.

Director

LEONARDO DI CAPRIO and Director/Writer/Producer PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON on the set of "One Battle After Another."

Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”

Possible surprise: Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein”
Possible snub: Panahi

The Directors Guild nominated Anderson, Coogler, Safdie, Zhao and del Toro. But the Oscar field has included one international director for seven straight years, making it likely that dissident filmmaker Panahi, a vocal critic of Iran’s authoritarian regime, earns a nomination for his blistering movie about resistance. That spot could also go to Joachim Trier, the director and co-writer of “Sentimental Value,” a family drama that sneaks in some sharp satire about the sorry state of filmmaking these days.

Actor

Timothee Chalamet in "Marty Supreme."

Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

Possible surprise: Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Possible snub: Moura

If Chalamet had won last year for playing Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown,” he would have become the youngest lead actor Oscar winner in history. That he lost to Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), still the only actor to win the trophy under the age of 30 (for “The Pianist”), adds a nice little twist to this bit of Oscar trivia. As it is, Chalamet seems well-positioned to eradicate voters’ bias against all the young dudes, his charismatic performance keeping you in the corner of “Marty Supreme’s” often repellent narcissist.

Actress

Jessie Buckley stars as Agnes in Hamnet

(Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features)

Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”

Possible surprise: Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Possible snub: Infiniti

Demi loves her. So does Reba and, of course, her mom, Goldie. In fact, it’d be surprising to find a mononym star who hasn’t stumped for Hudson and her star turn “Song Sung Blue,” though, thinking about it, Björk doesn’t feel like the right fit for a movie about a husband-and-wife Neil Diamond tribute band. (But I bet she’d be bringing down the house covering “I Am… I Said.”) It’s easy enough to root for Hudson and her comeback turn (was she ever really gone?), which could lead to her first nomination since her spectacular arrival a quarter-century ago (!) in “Almost Famous.” But among the five likely nominees, who would you boot? I’m a believer in each and every one of them.

Supporting actor

Stellan Skarsgard in "Sentimental Value."

Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”

Skarsgård, so good as the irascible father and legendary auteur in “Sentimental Value,” didn’t get a nomination from the Actors Awards, guaranteeing this category will keep us guessing until the envelope is opened. Only three actors (Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock,” Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained” and Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk”) have won an Oscar without an actors guild nod. But Skarsgård has already had a moment, winning the Golden Globe and giving perhaps the night’s best speech, self-deprecating — talking about how raising eight children taught him how to be a bad father — and passionate. “Cinema should be seen in cinemas.” That might not move Ted Sarandos, but I’m sure he picked up a few votes with that capper. (Note: No surprise or snub here. These are the nominees.)

Supporting actress

Teyana Taylor as Perfidia Beverly Hills in 'One Battle After Another.'

Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Possible surprise: Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
Possible snub: A’zion

“Wicked” won two Oscars last year — production design and costume design — from 10 nominations, recognition that included picture and nods for actors Cynthia Erivo and Grande. The meh reviews (though the movie has its fans among critics) and diminished box office lowered Oscar expectations for the sequel. But seeing Grande, whose Glinda is the center of the new film, slip down the list of expected nominees has been one of more surprising developments of this awards season. She might still turn up, but I’m thinking the field belongs to the quartet of women from best picture nominees plus the undeniable, unrecognizable turn from Madigan in “Weapons.”

Original screenplay

MICHAEL B. JORDAN as Smoke in Warner Bros. Pictures' "SINNERS," a Warner Bros. Pictures release.

(Eli Ade/Warner Bros. Pictures)

“It Was Just an Accident,” Jafar Panahi
“Marty Supreme,” Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein
“Sorry, Baby,” Eva Victor
“Sentimental Value,” Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners,” Ryan Coogler

Possible surprise: “The Secret Agent,” Kleber Mendonça Filho
Possible snub: “Sorry, Baby”

With “Sorry, Baby,” writer-director Victor looked at the aftermath of sexual assault with wit and wry humor, employing an unconventional, nonchronological structure in its portrait of a woman grappling with trauma and refusing to be defined by it. “Sorry, Baby” was a hard movie to market, and it didn’t find the audience it deserved when it arrived in theaters over the summer. But its fans are a passionate bunch — Julia Roberts gave it a powerful plug at the Golden Globes, calling Victor her “hero” — and I’m wishing, hoping, thinking there are enough of them to put the film among the nominated screenplays.

Adapted screenplay

LEONARDO DI CAPRIO and BENICIO DEL TORO in "One Battle After Another."

“Bugonia,” Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams,” Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

This group looks set, though I’d sub in Park Chan-wook’s “No Other Choice” for “Bugonia,” Park’s movie offering a more humane — and funnier — look at ugly things people can do when desperate. Park still has never been nominated for an Oscar, despite a resume that includes “Decision to Leave” and “The Handmaiden.”

International feature

A scene from the movie "It Was Just an Accident."

“It Was Just an Accident”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirāt”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”

Possible surprise: “No Other Choice”
Possible snub: “The Voice of Hind Rajab”

This could be the spot for Park. If “No Other Choice,” “It Was Just an Accident,” “The Secret Agent” and “Sirāt” are nominated, it would give Neon a clean sweep of the category, a heady accomplishment for the adventurous indie studio. Of course, four out of five wouldn’t be bad either, and I have a suspicion that Venice Grand Jury Prize winner “The Voice of Hind Rajab” breaks through the Neon logjam. Tunisian director Kaouther Ben Hania’s movie sensitively tells the crushing story of a 6-year-old girl killed in Gaza, blending drama and documentary in a way that has left audiences sobbing. Ben Hania has seen two of her movies nominated — the 2020 feature “The Man Who Sold His Skin” and the 2023 documentary “Four Daughters” — and “Hind Rajab” looks poised to return her to the ceremony.

Animated feature

KPOP DEMON HUNTERS

“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”

Sony Pictures Animation’s “KPop Demon Hunters” is the most-streamed movie in Netflix’s history, passing half a billion views in late December, including one from the kids at the New Year’s Eve party at my house. “Zootopia 2” got some eyeballs, too, becoming Walt Disney Animation Studios’ highest-grossing animated film. There’s a lot of separation between that pair and the remaining contenders.

Documentary feature

A still from "The Alabama Solution."

“2000 Meters to Andriivka”
“The Alabama Solution”
“Cover-Up”
“My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 — Last Air in Moscow”
“The Perfect Neighbor”

Possible surprise: “Apocalypse in the Tropics”
Possible snub: “The Perfect Neighbor”

The academy’s documentary branch often seems to take a perverse delight in ignoring popular favorites (“Hoop Dreams,” “Fahrenheit 9/11,” “Grizzly Man,” “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”), so it would not be all that surprising to see Netflix’s chart-topping, true-crime doc “The Perfect Neighbor” become the latest casualty.

Netflix has two other contenders: “Cover-Up,” a riveting portrait of investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, directed by Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus, and Petra Costa’s “Apocalypse in the Tropics,” which examines Brazil’s rightward political shift. Harsh realities in Russia inform another trio of potential nominees. Critics group favorite “My Undesirable Friends” is a harrowing look at journalists in Putin’s Russia, while “2000 Meters to Andriivka” follows a Ukranian platoon’s mission to liberate a Russian village. Meanwhile, closer to home, “The Alabama Solution” is a damning indictment of prison conditions in its titular state as well as America.

Not much to feel good about here, which, given the state of the world, feels about right.

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20 Blue Monday holiday deals you can bag TODAY

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WHEN Blue Monday comes around, it can leave you dreaming of being somewhere abroad…

Perhaps you’re craving the feeling of your toes in the sand, while lounging by the pool with a good book and a fruity cocktail.

Blue Monday doesn’t seem so blue when you have a holiday abroad in the diaryCredit: Getty

Or maybe you fancy booking a city break to look forward to, ticking off bucket list cities like New York and L.A. with these unusually cheap flights.

Luckily, some of the top travel companies are having some major sales this Blue Monday – slashing their prices so you can go away from just £81pp.

Not only have we collected these bargain holiday deals, but you can even save extra on top with sale voucher codes, or even book with a £0 deposit.

Skanes, Tunisia – 5 nights all-inclusive for £169pp

The Skanes Serail and Aquapark is a 4-star giant playground of a hotel in the beach resort of Skanes, Tunisia.

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This beachfront hotel even has its own waterpark and two giant outdoor pools.

Families will find plenty to do for all ages, including a kids club, playground and beach volleyball area.

On your doorstep at Skanes beach, there’s watersports galore with jet-skiing and parasailing on offer – and it’s usually much cheaper than in Europe.

Loveholidays offers a 5-night all inclusive stay with return flights from London Luton departing on March 14 for £169pp.

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Prague – 5 nights for £99pp

This 5-night trip to Prague comes with a comfortable stay at the Plus Prague Hostel.

Situated on a colourful quiet street with good links into the city centre, there’s great facilities here such as an indoor swimming pool, sauna and gym.

Take your pick of slides at the hotel waterpark in Skanes, TunisiaCredit: Loveholidays
Prague sunrise city skyline at Prague old town square, Prague, CzechiaCredit: Alamy

There’s activities like table tennis, a beach volleyball court, and a games room and golf practice on offer.

There’s a tram stop just 5 minutes away where you can head straight into the Old Town and explore everything from cafes and bars to the colourful Prague Market.

Loveholidays offers a 5-night room-only stay with return flights from Bristol departing on 26 January for £99pp.

Agadir, Morocco – 5 nights for £129pp

A break in Morocco’s Agadir will certainly brighten your January blues, with the sunny coastal city offering beaches, colourful markets and a sun soaked Medina.

Plus the snazzy Anezi Appartments are in the ideal location – just a short walk from both the beach and the city centre.

These apartments have everything you’ll need during your time away, including air conditioned comfy rooms and a spa with a sauna and steam bath.

There’s even a private beach with loungers and a pool with a poolside snack bar, so you can spend your days lazing in the sun without having to leave the poolside.

Loveholidays offers 5 nights’ stay with breakfast from March 7 including return flights from London Stansted for £129pp.

The Medina of Agadir in Morocco is worth visiting for a scenic strollCredit: Alamy
The sandy stretches of Praia Do Pinhao and Praia da Falésia make for a great beach dayCredit: Alamy

Marmaris, Turkey – 5 nights for £139pp

The Club Atrium Hotel in Turkey’s Marmaris has three pools to dip in and out of, and 126 comfy air-conditioned rooms to return to.

Choose to splash around with the kids in the dedicated kids pool, or take a soak in the relaxing Turkish bath indoors.

There’s a packed entertainment programme with sports and evening shows, and if you fancy a treat, there’s massages available here too.

There’s a strip of restaurants and bars nearby, and a disco just a 1-minute walk away.

Loveholidays offers 5 nights’ stay from April 20 with breakfast and return flights from Southend for £139pp.

The Algarve, Portugal – 5 nights for £90pp

Portugal’s Algarve has plenty to explore – from strolling through pretty fishing villages to taking a swing at one of many golf resorts.

Some of the best beaches include the quiet cove of Praia Do Pinhao, as well as Praia da Falésia with its red cliff-lined coastline.

And with a stay at Studio 17 by Atlantic Hotels, you can relax by their adults-only pool and enjoy a comfortable apartment stay with all the facilities.

On the Beach offers 5 nights’ self-catering stay from 15 March including flights from Bournemouth for £90pp.

Fez, Morocco – 5 nights for £110pp

The Riad Dar Al Ouali is a pretty and traditional place to stay when exploring the cultural capital of Morocco.

This Riad has its own rooftop terrace as well as six colourful rooms offering a mini fridge and room service.

There’s also complimentary breakfast on offer, serving traditional Moroccan foods like homemade flat breads and dipping sauces.

In Fez you can visit historical sites like the Marinid Tombs, or marvel at the Royal Palace.

On the Beach offers 5 nights’ stay with breakfast including flights from London Stansted departing March 10 for £110pp.

Fez is often referred to as the cultural capital of MoroccoCredit: Alamy
Qawra has a variety of bars and restaurants, and is home to the rocky Qawra Point BeachCredit: Getty

Qawra, Malta – 7 nights for £120pp

The Qawra Point Holiday Complex is a modern aparthotel, with a spectacular rooftop terrace boasting its own pool and sun deck.

Rooms here are large and come with all the facilities including both baths and showers, balconies and en-suites.

Five minutes’ walk takes you to your choice of gift shops, bars and restaurants to browse, and Qawra Point Beach is just 10 minutes away.

There’s plenty more to see and do in Malta, from visiting the Malta Classic Car Collection to trying out scuba diving.

On the Beach offer 7 nights’ self-catering stay including flights from London Luton for £120pp.

Antalya, Turkey – 5 nights for £130pp

This hotel in Turkey‘s popular beach resort Antalya is in a fantastic location with access to shops, bars and restaurants – and a private beach.

There’s loads of activities to choose from here that are perfect for families – darts, table tennis and a range of watersports, but to name a few.

Nearby, you can explore historical ruins and the Temple of Apollo, or take a boat trip to the breathtakingly beautiful Manavgat Waterfall and river.

The Old Harbour is worth a visit too, with its streets overlooking a blue bay with bobbing sailboats.

On the Beach offers 5 nights’ stay with breakfast including flights from Newcastle departing on March 17 for £130pp.

The Old Harbour in Antalya, Turkey is a postcard-perfect place to visitCredit: Getty
Over the Arno river you can see the towers and cathedrals of FlorenceCredit: Getty

Florence, Italy – 5 nights for £81pp

The Residenza Conte Di Cavour & Rooftop in the storybook city of Florence is set in an ideal location to explore the city.

Here you’re in a quiet spot not too far from the Cattedrale di Santa Maria del Fiore, and just a few minutes’ walk will take you to Maria Novella station – where you can head straight into the heart of the city.

Tuscany‘s capital has lots to see and do, including seeing Michaelangelo’s works in the Galleria dell’Accademia or admiring the manicured Boboli Gardens.

The hotel itself is comfortable and traditional, with colourful walls, plush bedding and a cosy atmosphere.

TUI offers 5 nights’ room-only stay from March 9 including flights from London Stansted for £81pp.

Bucharest, Romania – 5 nights for £99pp

This boutique hotel in Romania‘s capital has sun terraces decorated with colourful roses and pretty rooms with high ceilings and large windows.

There’s also a characterful bar with chandeliers and cosy seating, as well as a TV lounge and pretty gardens.

Out in Bucharest, you can explore unique artsy cafes, colourful art displays and buzzing nightlife.

Take a visit to Cărturești Carusel to visit the fairytale book shop of dreams, or soak in the views of the historic and gigantic Palace of Parliament.

TUI offers 5 nights’ room-only stay from February 28 including flights from London Stansted for £99pp.

You could visit Bucharest in Romania for just £99pp for 5 nightsCredit: Getty
The TUI SUNEO Caribe is a family-friendly option in IbizaCredit: TUI

Ibiza, Spain – 3 nights all inclusive for £302pp

This beachside resort in Ibiza is perfect for families, with its giant pool, splash park, and the sparkling Mediterranean Sea on your doorstep.

At TUI SUNEO Caribe there’s weekly themed parties, kids discos, arcade machines, sports courts and more to keep you busy.

Rooms are luxurious and modern, with sliding door balconies and crisp, colourful decor.

Here, you’re right on the doorstep of Es Canar beach, and the streets of Es Cana town are overlooked by bright white buildings and lush green mountains.

TUI offers 3 nights’ all-inclusive stay from May 18 including flights from Leeds Bradford for £302pp.

Benidorm, Spain – 5 nights all inclusive for £370pp

The adults-only hotel Agua Azul makes for a great base in buzzy Benidorm.

Levante Beach is just 15 minutes’ walk away, and you’ll be able to walk back home easily from the bustling strip too.

This all-inclusive stay has a buffet restaurant, two bars, an outdoor pool and an air-conditioned gym to enjoy.

Rooms are clean and spacious – complete with flat screen TVs and modern sleek bathrooms.

Jet2holidays offers 5 nights’ all-inclusive stay from February 21 including flights from London Luton for £370pp.

This Benidorm hotel is a short walk from both the beach and the nightlife stripCredit: Jet2 Holidays
Murcia in south eastern Spain is a vibrant city with great food and architectureCredit: Alamy

Murcia, Spain – 5 nights for £246pp

The El Churra hotel in Murcia is a family-friendly stay equipped with a gym, comfortable rooms and a cosy dining area.

Here you’re right in the heart of the city, where you can explore top attractions like the Real Casino de Murcia (just a 15-minute walk away).

The city also has some beautiful buildings to admire, like the Murcia Cathedral or Plaza Cardenal Belluga.

Browse fresh fruits and pastries at the city market, or try some tapas at the scenic Plaza de la Flores.

Jet2holidays offers 5 nights’ room-only stay from including flights from February 2 with flights from Manchester for £246pp.

Majorca – 3 nights for £260pp

The Globales Palmanova Hotel in Majorca is a stylish choice backed by rolling green hills and lined with palms.

The large outdoor pool is surrounded by plenty of comfy white loungers, so no need to rush before breakfast to claim yours with a beach towel.

Rooms are beachy and modern, with huge beds, balconies and coastal paintings to add to the theme.

This stunning hotel is in Majorca’s Palma Nova, where you can explore the Caves of Genova by boat and sunbathe on the sandy stretches of Es Carregador Beach.

Jet2holidays offers 3 nights’ half-board stay from February 27 with flights from East Midlands Airport for £260pp.

You can stay at an all-inclusive luxury resort in Rhodes for the week for just £623pCredit: Easyjet Holidays
Side is a peaceful, historical beach resort area in TurkeyCredit: Getty

Rhodes, Greece – 7 nights all-inclusive for £623pp

This luxurious resort is rated 5 stars – and you’re getting a whopping £337 off with this deal.

The sprawling Lindos Imperial Resort and Spa boasts seven pools, seven bars and restaurants, and six waterslides.

There’s unique touches like a poolside crepe stand and a beach bar, plus the main restaurant serves up top quality seafood, salads, meats and more.

Pack your days with tennis, volleyball, mini football, basketball – or by unwinding at the on-site spa.

All of this – and you’re right on the sandy shores of Kiotari Beach.

easyJet holidays offers 7 nights’ all-inclusive stay from April 23 with flights from London Luton for £623pp.

Side, Turkey – 7 nights for £246pp

The Side Spring Hotel is a cosy hotel that’s perfect for couples, set in the historic Turkish resort of Side.

There’s a 24-hour restaurant, massage treatments available, and an outdoor pool that lights up the resort at night.

A short walk will take you to Side’s city centre, where you can explore everything from ancient theatres to modern shops.

Side Museum is a great choice for history lovers, where you’ll find Greek artefacts and impressive sculptures.

easyJet Holidays offer 7 nights’ stay with breakfast from 21 April with flights from London Southend for £246pp.

Malia on the north coast of Crete is home to sweeping golden sand beachesCredit: Alamy
You could fly to Sharm El Sheikh for £297 return in the British Airways saleCredit: Alamy

Crete, Greece – 7 nights for £277pp

The Real Palace Hotel on the island of Crete is just 10 minutes from the picturesque Old Town of Malia, where colourful narrow streets are decorated with blooming flowers.

Explore endless hiking trails, peek through ancient palaces like the Minoan Palace of Malia, and dip in and out of traditional tavernas.

The hotel itself has an outdoor pool, children’s pool and poolside bar to make the most of the Greek sunshine.

You’ve also got Aelos Beach Water Park and Go Karting nearby, if you fancy an action-packed day out.

easyJet Holidays offer 7 nights’ self-catering stay from April 7 with flights from London Gatwick for £277pp.

New York for £362 return

Whether you’re visiting iconic sites like the Statue of Liberty and Times Square, or hopping into downtown pizza restaurants and bars, it’s impossible to get bored in this sprawling city.

Plus, if you choose to visit in March, this city is one of the best when it comes to St Patrick’s Day street celebrations.

Throughout various dates in February and March, you can book return flights for £362 from London Heathrow to JFK Airport in the British Airways sale.

Los Angeles for £355 return

In Los Angeles you can find glitzy palm-lined streets, buzzing underground clubs, laid back beaches and top theme parks all in one place.

If you’re visiting for a family holiday, head to Universal Studios Hollywood to step into a real life video game at Nintendo World. For food, try dining at family-friendly chains like Olive Garden and Cheesecake Factory.

Or if you’re wanting the Hollywood glamour experience, Rodeo Drive and Sunset Boulevard are must-visit spots for cheesey movie-scene magic.

On select dates in February, you can book return flights for £355 from London Heathrow to LAX in the British Airways sale.

You could tick off that bucket list trip to L.A. with this bargain flights dealCredit: Getty
British Airways are offering cheap flights to New York in their saleCredit: Getty

Sharm El Sheikh for £297 return

On the southernmost tip of Egypt‘s Sinai Peninsula, Sharm El Sheikh is an action-packed beach resort that is practically always sunny.

This is snorkelers and scuba divers’ paradise, with the Red Sea home to colourful coral reefs and near transparent waters.

There’s plenty of architectural sights to tick off, too, like The Heavenly Cathedral and Ah-Sahaba Mosque.

On select dates in February and March, you can get return flights for £297 from London Heathrow to Sharm El Sheik in the British Airways sale.

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Somali businesses struggle during the Minneapolis ICE crackdown

Rows of businesses stood shuttered inside a sprawling complex of Somali businesses on a recent afternoon.

Karmel Mall in south Minneapolis contains more than 100 small businesses in suites offering clothing and food, insurance and accounting services, and much more.

One day last week, the noisy hallways inside lay quiet, save for occasional chatter between neighboring vendors. The smell of fried food still wafted from the bakeries, the central heating hummed, and the sound of Quran recitation flowed quietly from some shops.

But many sellers sat alone in their clothing stores, waiting for the occasional customer to walk by. Everyone is afraid of federal immigration agents, business owners said. Sellers and customers, citizens and noncitizens. Some don’t bother opening shop because they aren’t expecting any customers.

“It’s been like this for three weeks now,” said Abdi Wahid, who works at his mother’s convenience store in the mall. “Everywhere it’s all been closed up, all the stores.”

Karmel Mall is an economic hub for the area’s Somali population, the largest in the United States. It also features housing, a mosque and Quran classes, serving as a robust community center for the area.

The economic impact of the Trump administration’s so-called Operation Metro Surge stretches beyond the Somali community: Many immigrants are on edge, afraid to go to work or leave their homes amid the immigration crackdown.

President Trump has made the Somali community a special target of his deportation rhetoric after a recent government fraud case in Minnesota included some Somali defendants. Since December, Trump has repeatedly insulted members of the community, calling them “garbage” and saying “they contribute nothing.”

Wahid said early afternoons at the family business once meant 15 to 20 customers. These days, it’s tough to get one.

Wahid is a citizen, but he said the fear extends beyond undocumented immigrants. Citizens are also scared of coming in, especially after the ICE officer killing of Renee Nicole Good and the ICE raid at Roosevelt High School in south Minneapolis.

“I think that caused a lot of people to not even want to come,” he said, because they could be targeted “just because of their race.”

Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement that law enforcement uses “reasonable suspicion” under the 4th Amendment to make arrests.

“A person’s immigration status makes them a target for enforcement, not their skin color, race or ethnicity,” she said.

Upstairs, Bashir Garad runs Safari Travel & Accounting Services. Not only has the crackdown in Minneapolis meant he’s lost almost all his customers, but his clients are canceling upcoming trips because they’re worried they won’t be let back into the country.

“They see a lot of unlawful things going on in the city,” he said. “They look at something bad, and then they think some bad things may happen to them.” The majority of his clients are East African, and nearly all are U.S. citizens. They still hesitate to travel.

“The government is not doing the right thing,” Garad said. “If there’s a criminal, there’s a criminal. Regardless, there are ways to find the criminal, but to marginalize the community’s name, and a whole people, that is unlawful.”

Ibrahim Dahiye, who sells electronics, said winter always used to be slow, “but now it’s totally different. No one comes here. All the stores are closed, few are open.”

Since the crackdown began, Dahiye said his business is down $20,000 monthly, and he’s now pooling funds to make rent.

He said he’s lost most of his customers. His employees are too scared to come to work. He tapped his jacket pocket, saying he keeps his passport on him at all times.

“I don’t know what we can do,” Dahiye said. “We believe in Allah, but we can’t do anything.”

Raza writes for the Associated Press.

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After the Bombs: Venezuelans Concerned About a Future of Coercion and Colonization

A man sits on steps decorated with a mural representing the eyes of late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in Caracas, Venezuela, on Jan. 12, 2026. (Graphic by Truthdig; images via AP Photo, Adobe Stock)

CARACAS, Venezuela — It was 1:58 a.m. on Jan. 3 when a thunderous roar made the windows of my apartment in downtown Caracas shake. Are the New Year’s celebrations still going on? Is a storm coming or is it an earthquake, I wondered. Despite multiple threats from the United States against Venezuela, I couldn’t believe that bombing was possible; not like this, not now. As people say in Venezuela, “It’s one thing to call on the devil, and another to see him actually arrive.” As the missiles began to fall one after another, my phone was inundated with the same message: “They are bombing us.”

Residents in the southwest of the city witnessed at least 11 helicopters entering Fort Tiuna, Caracas’ most important military complex, which is surrounded by dozens of civilian buildings jointly known as Tiuna City. Andrea Pérez, a resident of the area, heard the roar of the helicopters, followed by high-pitched whistles that ended in a massive explosion. The glare lit up her apartment, and the dense air tightened in her young son’s chest.

“We ran down eight floors, using our phone flashlights and we bumped into all our neighbors. Some were half-naked, running for their lives. Some of us got into our cars, but the traffic was so bad it took nearly 20 minutes just to get out of there,” she tells Truthdig.

People in the residential complex of Tiuna City around Fort Tiuna in Caracas were forced to evacuate as bombs fell on Jan. 3. (Jessica Dos Santos Jardim)

Within minutes, the highway filled with people trying to flee on foot from whatever was happening. “There was no light. You could hear indescribable, terrifying noises. You didn’t know where they were coming from. We had no idea what was happening outside, but we had to get out. I carried my dog, which weighs almost 30 kilos and just had surgery,” Oleno León, another resident, says.

Later, we learned that a U.S. cyberattack had crippled a large part of Caracas’ power supply. This helped enable 150 stealth fighters, electronic warfare aircraft, bombers, assault helicopters, drones and intelligence satellites to penetrate the skies of at least four Venezuelan states.

Negotiation and betrayal: Does it matter?

Hours later, we knew there had been an incursion, but we weren’t certain if the objective — to abduct President Nicolás Maduro — had been achieved. However, later in the morning, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez established a phone link with the state television channel and confirmed the situation by asking the U.S. for “proof of life” for the president and his wife, Cilia Flores.

People hunkered down. The streets turned into deserts. A harsh quietness descended that was only broken the next day by desperate lines at supermarkets, pharmacies and shops selling drinking water. What followed is now well known: multiple and contradictory statements from various U.S. government officials, images of Maduro and Flores arriving at the Drug Enforcement Administration office and later the courthouse in Manhattan, and Rodríguez being sworn in as acting president in the National Assembly.

However, as the days passed, people had questions: What happened to the Russian air defense systems or the Chinese radar for detecting air attacks — including the 5,000 Igla-S missiles that Maduro himself claimed to have in October 2025? Why were there no air-to-air battles? Did everything fail? Would this amount to treason? Or, if it was a negotiation, was the now-kidnapped president involved or not?

The picture became somewhat clearer when the United States government explained how its high-level technology managed to dismantle Venezuelan defenses, as well as the role played for months by several undercover CIA agents in Caracas. Rodríguez stated that “no one surrendered” and that “there was combat here.” The lives of at least 100 people “were taken in a vile, unequal, unilateral, illegal and illegitimate attack,” she said.

Maduro’s son, National Assembly member Nicolás Maduro Guerra, also stated that the U.S. neutralized the radar used for detection. “We were left blind; they attacked us with an aircraft that emits an electromagnetic wave that affects all defense systems,” he said. “It was impossible to get a plane off the ground, and most likely, if we had taken off, they would have shot it down. The technology they used was impressive. I believe this was a rehearsal for something bigger, and humanity should know about it.”

However, days earlier, Maduro Guerra had also hinted at the possibility of treason within the government. In statements to Truthdig, historian and Caracas-based commentator Álvaro Suzzarini notes that in catastrophes of this scale, the responses and actions of those under attack will inevitably range from betrayal and compromise to acts of heroism. However, he says, beyond the sensationalism and debates in the media and public generated by that dynamic, history will eventually reveal what role the key figures ultimately played.

Central University of Venezuela social psychology and criminology professor Andrés Antillano tells Truthdig that speculation doesn’t help while the situation is still so volatile. “The fact is that there is a negotiation with Trump; whether it happened before or after the military intervention and Maduro’s kidnapping is a matter of speculation, and perhaps it is not the most relevant issue right now,” Antillano says. “What matters more is understanding what comes after this brutal and ruthless intervention, which also served to intimidate the entire continent.”

Venezuelans worry about US role and economy

“I worry about losing power again or running out of water. Luckily, I have some food at home, but I also fear not being able to find what I need. I am also worried about safety, about the emptiness that takes over the streets at night and what that could lead to,” says Ariadna García, a young writer. She, like other Venezuelans I spoke with, isn’t sure what the role and reach of the U.S. in Venezuela will ultimately be.

Rodríguez has stated that the country “was attacked by a nuclear power but is not at war,” that “no external agent governs it,” and that it is entering “a new political moment” — one that has already included meetings with opposition lawmakers and the release of political prisoners.

But for citizens like university professor María Mercedes Cobo, national and personal fears have emerged. “First of all, I fear this aggression could be repeated, but I’m also terrified that we may no longer be a country with self-determination, and instead a colonized territory. Every time Trump speaks as if he were the president of Venezuela, it scares me. But I also wonder what will happen to our economy,” she tells Truthdig.

In the first week of January, the official exchange rate for the U.S. dollar against the Venezuelan bolívar rose by almost 10% , while the gap between the official and parallel rates is around 100%. This devaluing of the bolívar — through which most workers receive their income — reduces purchasing power, which was already very low. As of the end of last year, the monthly minimum wage in Venezuela was less than one U.S. dollar, and most income was received as bonuses.

Since Jan. 3, “In a context of deep political uncertainty, the economy has stopped being a priority. The failure to address this gap is causing a contraction in people’s purchasing power due to the breakdown of the pricing system,” economist Asdrúbal Oliveros tells Truthdig. He says that until the Venezuelan oil market stabilizes, the exchange rate will not stabilize either.

Venezuelan experts on the future

In purely political terms, what could happen in the coming months? According to Suzzarini, predicting outcomes with limited data under conditions of high uncertainty is risky, but he believes the emerging and most plausible scenario is the current one. “The continuity of Chavismo in power under the figure of Delcy Rodríguez, with at least the current 2025-2031 presidential term being fulfilled,” he says.

In his view, Venezuela is experiencing a “transition without transition,” where the U.S. has removed the president, but the governing party is the same, a sign that Washington did not and does not fully understand the phenomenon of Chavismo — the ideology embraced by followers of the late President Hugo Chávez — as a political movement. “This is not the kind of government, as calculated in the United States, where decapitating Maduro’s leadership would cause everything else to collapse,” he says.

“There are multiple converging leaderships and a political maturity of 30 years,” he says, referring to the decades of Bolivarian revolution and related organizing and movements.

The historian also points out that the right-wing opposition, led by María Corina Machado, will likely remain “outside the equation and the mathematics of power” because it lacks the capacity or support to sustain it, especially in such a delicate moment. Meanwhile, he says, Russia and China could still shift the global political landscape, with repercussions for Venezuela.

Public transportation, trash collection and other basic services have now largely returned to normal in Caracas. (Jessica Dos Santos Jardim)

Trump is willing to receive Machado at the White House and she would like to award him her Nobel Peace Prize, but both know that the opposition leader could not run the country — especially not now. “She lacks the support and the respect,” Trump stated on Jan. 3.

However, the country is still essentially being held hostage by the U.S. and is under constant threat, Carlos Raúl Hernández, a political science professor at the Central University of Venezuela, explains. He says this makes acting President Rodríguez a sort of lifeline.

“Venezuela has a somewhat similar population and geographic size to Iraq [when it was bombed in 2003], so if the United States decided today to proceed with an invasion, it could … cause the deaths of 40,000 Venezuelans. It’s an extremely grave threat, one that must be avoided through agreements,” Hernández tells Truthdig.

To Hernández, Rodríguez is in a difficult position because, “theoretically or practically, the oil fleet linked to Venezuela has been seized, and of course that leaves no alternative but to negotiate. The tankers are in U.S. hands, so moving the oil requires U.S. approval. Another factor is China’s oil exploitation, which is also very important for the Venezuelan nation at this moment, as it represents 70% of exports. On the other hand, the United States is a key importer for China, and China is a major market for the United States.”

However, he believes that Rodríguez’s government could last a couple of years before new elections are held, “Until there is no longer a risk of confrontation, civil war or a process that destabilizes the world’s largest international oil reserve. Trump is interested in making sure this gigantic mine operates without setbacks, and that’s why he negotiates with the Chavista government — because it’s the only force with a real structure and control of the state apparatus.”

Hernández also thinks that if these agreements break down, new forms of invasion could follow. “But predicting it is difficult because everything that is taking place is unprecedented — astonishing in a civilized world like the one we thought we had.”

It would not be the first time a U.S. government chose to invade first and think later. But, at least for now, it seems that U.S. action will focus on coercing authorities through measures like those we experienced on Jan. 3.

Democratic U.S. senators, along with a small bloc of Republican senators, delivered a rebuke to Trump by voting in favor of advancing a resolution that would limit the future use of U.S. military force in Venezuela without congressional approval, but the resolution failed after two Republicans changed their votes and Vice President JD Vance voted to break a tie. Either way, Trump rarely respects U.S. legality, and he still has three years left in his term. Meanwhile, his next target could be Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Greenland … or once again, Venezuela.

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.

Source: Truthdig

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