Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is up 2 points, but that’s still within the poll’s margin of error.
Published On 25 Sep 2026
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main challenger, in a potential run-off ahead of October’s presidential election, a Datafolha poll has shown.
In poll results released Thursday, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off. A previous Datafolha poll last week had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46 percent to 44 percent.
The result also represents a technical tie as it falls within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points.
In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40 percent of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro (36 percent), Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (4 percent) and Renan Santos (3 percent).
The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39 percent against the right-wing senator’s 36 percent.
Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.
Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president.
If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a run-off.
Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23.
Earlier this week, two other polls showed similar results.
A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential run-off, versus 41 percent for Lula.
Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential run-off.