Brazil

Man spreads flammable liquid in a room with 13 children while holding a lighter as police try to negotiate.

Brazilian police have rescued 13 children who had been taken hostage at a kindergarten in the southern city of Curitiba after killing the suspect, who threatened to set fire to the building, according to officials.

At least one of the children was wounded in Friday’s incident, the commander of the military police special forces unit in Parana state, Alexandre Lopes Dias, told reporters without elaborating on who or what injured the child.

Parana police spokesperson Leticia Martins told journalists outside the kindergarten that the suspect jumped the gate on Friday, broke into a classroom and held 13 children hostage.

He then spread a flammable substance in the room and held a lighter in his hand. He was carrying a knife and also what was initially believed to be a firearm, but later was found to be fake.

“Our negotiating teams were in place but saw no alternative but to neutralise him,” said Martins, who did not specify whether the suspect had expressed a specific reason for his actions.

The incident took place in the neighbourhood of Sao Braz in Curitiba, a city of 1.8 million residents located 400km (250 miles) south of Sao Paulo.

Lopes Dias told reporters the suspect was identified as a man who suffered from schizophrenia, but he did not reveal the man’s identity or how he was killed.

“During the entire negotiation, he stayed with all the children around him and one on his lap,” the police official said.

Children beaten

Talks lasted up to three hours. The children became agitated, and the attacker started hitting them, Lopes Dias told reporters.

“Once we realised that the kids were becoming increasingly upset and that the attacker started assaulting them physically, we opted for a tactical intervention to avoid a greater problem,” he explained.

Local media showed footage of tearful parents outside the school waiting for information as the negotiations between the suspect and police were ongoing. Minutes after what local media described as flash bangs, officers emerged carrying some of the children outside.

“We entered the classroom using a very tactical approach with little risk for the children,” Lopes Dias added.

Curitiba Mayor Eduardo Pimentel wrote on Instagram: “The 13 children are alive and safe! After anguishing and tense moments, this is the news we were all waiting for.”

Brazil in recent years has experienced multiple attacks on schools. In April 2023, a man killed four children with an axe at a day care in Blumenau, also in southern Brazil.

Curitiba City Hall said in a statement that the children and school staffers would receive psychological support.

Colombian President Abelardo De la Espriella had promised closer ties with Israel on the campaign trail.

Israel has announced that Colombia will open an embassy in Jerusalem, becoming the latest country to establish a diplomatic mission in the disputed city claimed as a capital by Israelis and Palestinians. Most countries have their embassies in Israel in Tel Aviv.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Thursday the Latin American country’s embassy would open next week as he touted expanding relations with the region.

“Next Wednesday, we are going to inaugurate … the Colombian embassy,” Saar told attendees at a conference in Jerusalem.

An official at the Colombian Foreign Ministry in Bogota told AFP news agency the country’s Foreign Minister Omar Bula Escobar would travel to Jerusalem on Sunday ahead of the opening.

Colombian President Abelardo De la Espriella, who was sworn in as president in August, promised close relations with Israel during his election campaign. When he came into office, he restored diplomatic ties between Colombia and Israel. Colombia had previously severed ties with the country over Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.

The announcement comes as a small but growing list of countries has opted to route their diplomatic ties with Israel through Jerusalem.

Since 2018, the US, Guatemala, Paraguay, Kosovo, Honduras, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Nauru and Somaliland, which has been recognised as an independent entity only by Israel, have opened embassies in the city.

Other countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel have located their embassies in Tel Aviv, as Jerusalem is not recognised by the international community as Israel’s capital.

“We will work hard because this is the diplomatic battle over the truth. And the truth is, Jerusalem was always the capital of one nation,” Saar said, dismissing Palestinian claims to the capital.

The Israeli minister said the Democratic Republic of the Congo would open its embassy in Jerusalem “very soon” and hinted at another opening.

“I think that with the possible results in Brazil, they might have the same move,” he said after right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round in the country’s presidential election.

Protesters in Colombia took to the streets of Bogota on Wednesday to rally against the new far-right government’s policy towards Israel, including the decision to open the Jerusalem embassy.

“When diplomatic relations with Israel were broken off, the message was that we would not be a nation complicit in their atrocities,” Nicolas Isaza, who took part in the protest, told Al Jazeera.

“Today our government is no longer drawing a line against the atrocities being committed in Palestine,” he added.

Thousands of people have taken to the streets of Rio de Janeiro in a student-led protest against presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro and the growing influence of Brazil’s far right.

The march happened on Wednesday, just days after far-right Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, earned the most votes in the first round of the country’s presidential race.

Bolsonaro won 47 percent, ahead of his closest rival, incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who gained 45 percent support.

Since neither candidate surpassed the 50 percent threshold, they will face each other in a run-off on October 25.

The results have triggered fears that Brazil could become the latest Latin American country to see its presidency switch from left to right.

Protesters marched through downtown Rio carrying signs reading “Never again Bolsonaro” and “No to the father, no to the son”. Others held banners reading “Dictatorship never again” and “Get out Bolsonaro”.

“I’m here because I believe in democracy. Because I’m scared,” said Alice Carneiro, 25, an administrator in maritime shipping who participated in the protests. She explained that, under a far-right government, she feared a backlash against her wife, who is transgender.

Jair Bolsonaro, the former president, led the country from 2019 to 2023. But his single-term tenure was marked by a series of controversies related to his far-right policies.

He voiced support for Brazil’s past military dictatorship, which was responsible for the disappearance and murder of hundreds of perceived dissidents. He also spread unfounded claims about the accuracy of Brazil’s election system, leading to a court ruling that barred him from holding office for eight years.

Currently, the former president is serving a 27-year sentence after being convicted of plotting to overturn his 2022 election defeat. After Lula’s inauguration in 2023, Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed government buildings in the capital, reportedly hoping to trigger a military uprising.

Critics have framed Jair Bolsonaro’s actions as a threat to Brazil’s democracy.

But Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has received his father’s endorsement, and he has backed amnesty for his father, a prospect that has raised concerns among protesters.

“I find this rise of the far right and the rise of Bolsonarism in Brazil very, very sad,” said Emmanuel Araujo, 19, who is preparing for university entrance exams.

“Lula might not be my preferred candidate,” Araujo added, “but amid this barbarism, we have to choose between someone we can keep criticising and someone who might take away our right to speak.”

Who will be the next president of the largest Latin American economy? We’ll know for sure with the run-off on October 25, but after the first-round results in Brazil’s general election, it seems it won’t be Lula da Silva. The 80-year-old socialist who was close friends with Hugo Chávez and failed to pressure Nicolás Maduro after he stole the 2024 election would need a miracle to stop Flávio Bolsonaro. The ultra-conservative populism of the candidate’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro —currently in jail for the coup attempt of 2023—, surpassed Lula in the presidential vote and grabbed the majority of states and seats in Congress.

Unless the Workers Party has a secret weapon against Bolsonaro and recruits enough voters in extremis, Lula will end his career defeated by a family closely associated with attacks to democracy, misinformation, open dismissal of environmental concerns, militarism, and sexism. 

We’ll see what millions of Brazilian voters, who are fed up with inflation and crime, will decide. But from a Venezuelan point of view, the idea of having Flávio Bolsonaro ruling over our big neighbor to the south sounds like bad news for chavismo, especially if the rest of Venezuela’s land borders touch Guyana, a rising oil producer closely protected by the US, and Colombia, where Abelardo de la Espriella, a leader who resembles Bolsonaro, is already president.

Donald Trump is not Ronald Reagan. He’s not fighting socialism and trying to spread capitalist democracy.

If we add that Panama, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, Trinidad and Tobago, Peru, Chile, and Argentina have conservative presidents who declared a new war on drugs and are even joining the Trump administration’s Shield of the Americas initiative, we’ll see a map turning dark-blue hostile to the heirs of 21st-century socialism. No more silence about chavismo’s abuse. No more anti-imperialist performance in global arenas. Finally, the pendulum swung away from chavismo’s old circle. This right-wing storm on the continent is bad for Delcy Rodríguez and good for María Corina Machado. Right?

Not necessarily.

Before and after Trump

Before Trump, things were simpler. Conservative governments in Latin America were like Álvaro Uribe’s in Colombia or Felipe Calderón’s in Mexico: they tried to get along with Chávez but ended up as enemies, cutting commercial and diplomatic ties, fighting chavista diplomats in the UN and accusing their local adversaries of trying to export chavismo. Predicting a vote involving Venezuela in the OAS was easy: you just had to count how many representatives were on the right and how many on the left or the Chávez payroll, like Petrocaribe’s members. 

After Trump, on the contrary, those old categories no longer matter. Ideology is not important. Not even cultural wars, which are so good for social media and for recruiting powerful allies like evangelical churches; a government can allow abortion and same sex marriage and be considered a friend by Trump, as long as this government connects with the priorities of the president’s political and corporate circles.

Hugo Chávez would be worried about the Bolsonaros’ apparent return to Brasília. Delcy Rodríguez, not so much.

Trump’s foreign relations favor those governments who are in sync with the specific matters his administration is about, like pushing China out of the region, securing markets for American companies, and, more particularly, supporting Trump’s narratives. If you lose an election, as he did with Biden, you blame socialism and try to reverse the results; if Trump says fentanyl and cocaine are coming from your country, you help the Americans to attack boats and produce viral clips on social media; if Trump says your migrants are poisoning his country, you help him to stop them before they approach the US, and even accept that your own citizens are sent to prisons in third, remote countries.

Donald Trump is not Ronald Reagan. He’s not fighting socialism and spreading capitalist democracy. He’s not even treating China as a geopolitical adversary, but a corporate competitor with a CEO you can visit and have at home, as Trump just did with Xi Jinping. Trump is in worse terms with a fully democratic, pro-market government like Mark Carney’s in Canada, which did not bend to his demands, than with President Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico, a hardcore leftist, who is more cooperative with the White House. And, in fact, Trump is allowing the existence of three socialist autocracies on the continent: Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. 

Trump can coexist with socialists, as long as they do what he wants. In practice, this means that our old premises about the impact of having left- or right-leaning governments around are not as valid as they were when Chávez was alive.

New friendz n the hood

We Venezuelans can easily see how things changed in the region’s geopolitical play, and how ideology lost relevance, in the evidently comfortable relationship between Donald Trump and Delcy Rodríguez, or in the aftermath of the earthquakes in June. Many governments sent help to La Guaira, but one of the first and most spectacular rescue missions came from El Salvador, where the government is a very public enemy of chavismo. The Salvadorans’ equipment and efforts in the rubble were highlighted on President Nayib Bukele’s social media. El Salvador’s fast response helped the dictatorship to manage the disaster, not the Venezuelan opposition, which is currently led by a pro-market politician, Machado, who courted the Republican Party for years.

We have also seen how Paraguay, Argentina and Chile, all of them with right-wing leaders very close to Trump, started to restore relationships with Miraflores Palace, even if it is still in the hands of the people who perpetrated the 2024 fraud and besieged the Argentine embassy in Caracas. 

Hugo Chávez would be worried about the Bolsonaros’ apparent return to Brasília. Delcy Rodríguez, not so much. She can invite big Brazilian companies in energy, retail and agribusiness, which would get deregulation and diplomatic support in a Bolsonaro government, to join the investment frenzy in the Caracas Marriott. Yes, Machado and Bolsonaro met in Chile, during Kast’s inauguration in March, and she congratulated him on social media last Sunday, but Venezuela’s democratic renewal is not an urgent priority for Flávio Bolsonaro.

A critical difference between Abelardo and Flávio is that the new Colombian government needs to put pressure on Colombian guerrillas in Venezuela.

A good proxy to estimate how Bolsonaro Jr. would behave with chavismo and Machado is Abelardo de la Espriella. The Colombian president, who used a similar mix of conspiracy theories and a macho persona to defeat the Pacto Histórico leftist coalition, has so far been as passive about Venezuela’s suspension of democratic rights as Gustavo Petro. De la Espriella has been pushing Venezuelan migrants to go home, like Trump. As experts see it from Colombia, he is just following Trump’s lead regarding his neighbor. One critical difference between De la Espriella and Bolsonaro is that the new Colombian government needs to put pressure on Colombian guerrillas in Venezuela (with American support and, probably, even Delcy’s help), a variable absent in the Brazilian case.  

I’m not saying that the Bolsonaros and the rest of the Trumpian Right will support Delcy forever. My point is that we can’t see their spread over South America as a force meant to crush socialists. We must observe what Trump and their allies do, instead of just believing what they say. Trump said a lot of things about Maduro and chavismo, but at the time of writing, Venezuelan citizens remain deprived of influence, just like when Maduro stole their votes, and Maduro’s former vice president is having the time of her life.

Brazil’s closely watched presidential election is heading to a second round between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, prolonging a deeply polarised race with major implications for the country and the wider region.

Brazil’s electoral court confirmed on Sunday that the two candidates will advance to a run-off on October 25 after neither won the majority needed to secure the presidency outright, with Bolsonaro leading at 55.8 million votes to Lula’s almost 53.2 million.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term after a political career spanning nearly five decades.

Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and is trying to return his father’s right-wing movement to power, even as the former president serves a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

The election comes at a pivotal time for Latin America’s largest economy. Brazilians are grappling with concerns over crime and the cost of living, while the country faces an increasingly tense relationship with the United States. The vote is also being closely watched across a region that has shifted sharply to the right in a series of recent elections.

While a second round was widely expected, the first-round result did not play out quite as pollsters had predicted.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the election so far.

Brazil is heading for another Lula-Bolsonaro run-off

With nearly 99 percent of votes reported, Bolsonaro had about 47 percent of valid votes, compared with 44.9 percent for Lula. Neither reached the 50 percent threshold needed to win in the first round.

That sets up another Lula-Bolsonaro showdown, four years after Lula narrowly defeated former President Jair Bolsonaro. This time, he will face the former president’s eldest son.

The race could be extremely close, as polling ahead of Sunday’s vote suggested Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro were roughly tied in a potential run-off.

That puts voters who backed one of the other 10 candidates in the first round at the centre of the fight for the presidency over the next three weeks.

Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who together received about 5.3 million votes, have previously said they will not endorse either candidate in the run-off.

Flavio Bolsonaro did better than polls suggested

Most polls leading up to election day predicted the race would be pushed into the second round, but had Lula finishing the first round ahead of Bolsonaro.

Instead, Bolsonaro emerged with a lead of two percentage points, raising questions about why the final polls underestimated his support.

On Sunday, Bolsonaro said the results showed that Brazilians want change.

Analysts told the Reuters news agency that Bolsonaro may have benefitted from “protest votes” from people who may have preferred another candidate but saw defeating Lula as the priority. Many had been expected to shift their support to Bolsonaro only in a second round, meaning this could have consequences for his support in three weeks.

“The protest vote foreshadows what is to come in the run-off,” political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters. “While this should benefit Flavio Bolsonaro now, his growth potential in the second round drops precisely because that support has already been front-loaded.”

After the results came in, Lula said the votes were “unexpected” but that he would come back stronger in the run-off.

“I admit, I was convinced I would win in the first round. The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people,” the 80-year-old said.

The right had a strong night in Congress, too

Bolsonaro’s surprising performance in the first round was part of a broader show of strength for Brazil’s right.

Right-wing parties, led by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL), were performing strongly in both houses of Congress, with the PL on track to emerge as the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies and making gains in the Senate.

This included victories for other members of the Bolsonaro family, including former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Flavio’s stepmother, who won a Senate seat in the Federal District, her first elected office.

His brother, Carlos Bolsonaro, was elected to the Senate in Santa Catarina.

The results show that the political movement built around former President Jair Bolsonaro – known as “bolsonarista” – remains a powerful electoral force, even with the former president barred from running himself.

“The fact that far-right candidates for the legislature have exceeded all expectations suggests a deeper popular grounding for the bolsonarista project than many expected,” Andre Pagliarini, an assistant professor of history and international studies at Louisiana State University and author of a book on Lula, told Al Jazeera.

“Millions of Brazilians right now evidently feel the right best reflects their values and vision for the future,” he added.

The congressional results matter beyond election night, too. Both houses were already dominated by conservative lawmakers, and a stronger right-wing presence could make it even harder for Lula to push through his agenda if he wins another term.

A Bolsonaro victory, meanwhile, could give him more room to pursue his own priorities, including his pledge to seek an amnesty for his father.

Some countries, from which Brazilians living overseas are able to vote, have also already released preliminary vote count data.

In China, Lula won 56.63% of the votes, while Bolsonaro came in second with 31.33%. Lula also won in countries including South Korea, New Zealand and Saudi Arabia.

In Israel, however, Bolsonaro won 74.40% of the valid votes. He also won 71.59% of the valid votes in Japan.

Today’s result will also determine the composition of the Senate from February 2027 onwards, as 54 of the Senate’s 81 seats are being contested, representing two-thirds of the chamber.

Currently, the largest bloc in the Senate is Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL), followed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which has served in a coalition government under Lula.

In the last election four years ago, Lula narrowly defeated Flávio Bolsonaro’s father, Jair. But the tumultuous aftermath of the election, which saw Jair Bolsonaro convicted of plotting a coup after thousands of his supporters stormed the Brazilian Congress, has had a lasting impact on the nation’s political life and this election.

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup and is barred from standing for office.

Because of recurrent health problems, he is currently under house arrest rather than in a cell, but he has been prohibited from posting on social media or making public statements.

Despite these restrictions, there is little doubt that Flávio Bolsonaro has his father’s backing.

Close race expected as left-wing Lula seeks fourth non-consecutive term against right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro, son of convicted former president.

Polls have opened in Brazil’s presidential election, once again pitting left-wing incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against a right-wing candidate from the Bolsonaro family – Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Some 160 million registered voters are eligible to cast ballots in Sunday’s elections, which will elect lawmakers, governors and senators.

If no presidential candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes, the top two contenders will proceed to a run-off on October 25.

Most opinion polls ahead of the vote showed a close contest, with Lula holding a marginal advantage over Bolsonaro that tightens further in a potential second round.

Lula, of the Workers’ Party, is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term. The 80-year-old, who previously served as president from 2003 to 2010, wants to continue his series of social programmes aimed at addressing inequality.

Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, has promised a hard stance on crime and insecurity. The 45-year-old has also pledged close collaboration with the United States under President Donald Trump.

His father is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence over his role in a coup plot following his election loss to Lula by 1.8 percentage points in 2022. The far-right leader’s conviction and that of several military officers raised questions about the strength of Brazilian democracy, reviving past traumas of the 21-year-long period during which Brazil was ruled by a US-backed military dictatorship.

The presidential election has been dominated by issues such as crime, insecurity and the high cost of living. Corruption and concerns about US intervention in the country’s domestic affairs have also loomed over the campaign.

A recent survey by Quaest says violence was cited as the biggest concern by 31 percent of respondents, followed by corruption (20 percent), economy (19 percent) and healthcare (12 percent).

“The stakes of this election are incredibly stark because the candidates stand for such opposing visions about what Brazil’s recent history means,” Andre Pagliarini, an assistant professor of history and international studies at Louisiana State University and the author of a book on Lula, told Al Jazeera.

He added that while Lula embodies the “consolidation of Brazilian democracy since the end of the dictatorship”, the Bolsonaro family argues that “the institutions that Brazilian democracy has erected since the end of dictatorship are either rotten and unresponsive”.

With reporting by Brian Osgood

Latest polls suggest Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro is narrowing, with neither candidate likely to win outright on Sunday.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro have wrapped up their election campaigns, each voicing confidence in victory ahead of Sunday’s tightly contested first-round presidential vote.

Lula, 80, closed his re-election bid on Saturday with a march through Sao Paulo, Brazil’s economic powerhouse, drawing what his campaign called a record crowd for a closing rally.

“Tomorrow, we’re going to win the elections in the first round,” he told supporters, describing Sunday’s vote as a choice between “democracy and barbarism” and promising to “defeat the far right”.

He has also framed the election as a test of Brazil’s sovereignty, warning against “meddling” by Washington.

Bolsonaro led a motorcycle caravan through towns in Sao Paulo state, echoing the campaign style of his father, before rallying later in Rio de Janeiro. “I am convinced that everything is in place for us to win this election in the first round,” he said.

The 45-year-old is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of US President Donald Trump. The former leader, 71, is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.

The younger Bolsonaro was photographed at his rally holding a portrait of his father.

Trump has not formally endorsed Bolsonaro but has said he is watching the election “very closely”, a level of US interest that has become a flashpoint in the campaign.

Lula’s supporters have seized on it as evidence Washington is trying to meddle in the elections, while some Bolsonaro supporters, frustrated by the cost of living, say they would welcome US pressure if it helped force change at home.

Polls released on Saturday suggested Lula was still ahead but his lead was narrowing, with neither candidate likely to win outright on Sunday. Such a result would send the race to a run-off on October 25 between the two frontrunners, a contest polls suggest would also be close.

It is a far tighter race than Lula’s last victory in 2022, when he beat the elder Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points.

Meanwhile, the Bolsonaro campaign has faced scrutiny over a film-funding scandal. Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation over financing for Dark Horse, a biopic about his father, bankrolled by a jailed banker tied to one of Brazil’s biggest financial scandals.

Brazil’s Supreme Court authorised federal police in April to investigate whether Flavio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula.

Bolsonaro has pledged to seek his father’s release from prison if elected, and has echoed his father’s unsubstantiated claims questioning the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting system, which analysts say could be laying the groundwork to contest the result if he loses.

Beyond the presidency, Brazil’s nearly 160 million registered voters will also choose lawmakers, governors and senators on Sunday.

Right-wing candidates have gained ground in Latin America in recent months.

For the second election in a row, Brazilian voters face a choice between left-wing candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and a right-wing candidate from the Bolsonaro family.

The country’s fractious election is set to take place during a wave of successful far-right candidates across Latin America and a sensitive time in Brazil’s modern political history.

Former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence over his role in a coup plot following his loss to Lula in 2022. The conviction of Jair Bolsonaro and several military officers raised questions about the resilience of Brazilian democracy, revived several decades ago following a period of rule by a United States-backed military dictatorship.

An explosive corruption scandal has implicated prominent figures and institutions across the political spectrum, and observers have expressed concern about possible US intervention.

Polls suggest Lula, the current president seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and Bolsonaro’s eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, are in a virtual tie in a simulated run-off.

Who are the candidates, what issues have been front and centre, and what could the election mean for Brazil? Here’s what you need to know about Brazil’s 2026 presidential elections.

When is the election?

The first round of voting in the Brazilian presidential election will take place on October 4 from 8am to 5pm Brasilia time (11:00 to 20:00 GMT).

If no candidate wins the first round outright, the top two candidates will proceed to a run-off vote on October 25.

Who is Lula?

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, better known simply as Lula, is the country’s current president and the candidate for the Workers’ Party, or the PT.

The 80-year-old has been a central figure in Brazilian politics for decades, serving two four-year presidential terms between 2003 and 2011, and his current term, which began in 2023.

His time in office has been defined by an effort to pair political democracy, restored after a US-backed military dictatorship that ruled the country for several decades until the 1980s, with material improvement for the country’s poor through a series of social programmes meant to address inequality.

Lula has also sought to forge ties between developing, non-Western countries on the global stage.

“He has come to embody the institutionalisation and consolidation of Brazilian democracy since the end of the dictatorship,” Andre Pagliarini, an assistant professor of history and international studies at Louisiana State University and the author of a book on Lula, told Al Jazeera in a phone call.

Who is Flavio Bolsonaro?

Flavio Bolsonaro has emerged as the heir to his father’s status as leader of Brazil’s political right and Lula’s main challenger in the 2026 election. Bolsonaro is running as the candidate of the right-wing Liberal Party.

The 45-year-old is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Flavio has pledged a hard stance on crime and insecurity and close collaboration with the administration of US President Donald Trump, which has designated several criminal groups in Brazil as “terrorist organisations”.

He has also promised to rein in inflation and government spending, with an adviser stating that he would implement a debt ceiling if elected.

Flavio Bolsonaro has also sought to turn his father’s conviction into a story of political persecution, denouncing his trial as illegitimate and seeking his release from prison.

“I ask God for the opportunity to walk up the ramp of Planalto Palace next year alongside President Jair Messias Bolsonaro, so that he may place the presidential sash across my chest,” he said at a campaign event in September.

“The Bolsonaro family’s pitch is that the institutions that Brazilian democracy has erected since the end of dictatorship are either rotten and unresponsive, and that we need a sharp turn away from this status quo,” said Pagliarini.

“The stakes of this election are incredibly stark because the candidates stand for such opposing visions about what Brazil’s recent history means,” he added.

What issues have defined the race?

As with many recent elections across the region, crime, insecurity and cost of living issues have dominated the Brazilian election. Corruption and concerns about US intervention in the country’s domestic affairs have also loomed over the campaign.

A Quaest survey from September 7 found that 31 percent of respondents cited violence as their biggest concern, followed by 20 percent who said corruption, 19 percent who said the economy, and 12 percent who said health.

While Brazil has seen decent economic growth and low unemployment and inflation during Lula’s third term, those mild gains have been paired with explosive levels of household debt and concerns about the rising cost of living.

A report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a left-leaning US-based think tank focused on economic issues, found that extreme poverty in Brazil fell by about 40 percent between 2022 and 2024, unemployment dropped to historic lows, and the country’s economic growth significantly outpaced that of most of its neighbours. But the analysis also found that households were strained by a sharp uptick in the cost of servicing debt. All in all, analysts say they amount to a view of the economy that is neither catastrophic nor particularly satisfying.

Pagliarini says that both candidates have tried to steer the election onto more favourable terrain for their issues of choice, with Lula portraying Flavio Bolsonaro as a willing accomplice in US efforts to undermine Brazilian sovereignty, and Flavio Bolsonaro accusing Lula of being corrupt and weak on crime.

What do the polls say?

Analysts say that polls reflect the state of Brazilian politics: deeply polarised but unenthusiastic.

“The general vibe is that this is a very downbeat campaign,” said Pagliarini. “There’s not a lot of enthusiasm either way, and it’s hard to tell at this stage who that favours.”

Most surveys show a close race, with Lula holding a marginal advantage over Flavio Bolsonaro that tightens further in a hypothetical run-off.

A Quaest survey from September shows Lula with 37 percent of voter intention against Flavio Bolsonaro’s 33 percent, while an AtlasIntel survey from the same period showed Lula winning 46 percent to Flavio Bolsonaro’s 43 percent.

A Datafolha poll found Lula with 40 percent and Flavio Bolsonaro with 36 percent.

Polls also show Flavio Bolsonaro favoured over Lula on issues of inflation, combating corruption, and crime and drug trafficking, while Lula is seen more favourably on issues of poverty and inequality, foreign affairs and health.

What challenges has each campaign faced?

An explosive corruption scandal, focused on disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro, has raised questions for both campaigns and implicated members of the country’s political and economic elite across the political spectrum.

Reports found that Flavio Bolsonaro had solicited substantial funds from Vorcaro, ostensibly to finance a documentary – The Dark Horse (or O Azarao) – about his father.

Lula’s former finance minister, Guido Mantega, has also said he helped arrange a meeting with Vorcaro, Lula and the head of Brazil’s central bank to discuss banking policy. Lula has said he told Vorcaro there would be no political interference in his bank’s case, only a “technical investigation conducted by the central bank”. The Reuters news agency confirmed the meeting.

The scandal has also embroiled the country’s Supreme Court, with Alexandre de Moraes, whose central role in Bolsonaro’s coup trial turned him into a subject of ire for the political right, facing questions about his own links to the banker.

De Moraes has in turn accused a justice appointed by Bolsonaro of wrongdoing, with the court considering probes into the conduct of both justices.

What are the concerns about US intervention?

Concerns that the Trump administration could intervene or seek to influence the outcome on behalf of Bolsonaro have also loomed over the election.

The US president has frequently threatened to cut off economic assistance to Latin American countries if his preferred candidate fails to win. Trump had also used sanctions to target members of the Brazilian judiciary involved in the case against the elder Bolsonaro, which he portrayed as a “witch-hunt”. Trump also placed heavy tariffs on Brazil in a bid to have the case thrown out.

The country’s government denied visas to two US officials who sought to travel to Brazil, saying they planned to cast doubt on the integrity of Brazilian elections. Lula’s government has warned the US against meddling in the country’s domestic affairs.

Trump has himself used false claims of rampant fraud to justify efforts to remain in office despite his election loss in 2020.

A group of 31 Democratic US Congress members recently sent a letter to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticising “an apparent effort to interfere with, and potentially undermine” Brazilian elections.

The Reuters reported that Brazilian intelligence officials also briefed a French and German delegation in September about possible interference in the election by outside powers such as the US and Russia. The officials said that US interference ranged “from lawfare to interference that is openly acknowledged”.

Security threats prompt US and Australia to suspend diplomatic operations in Brazil before pivotal election day.

The United States has suspended consular services in Brazil, prompting Australia to close its embassy in the Brazilian capital, two days before Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday.

In a statement released on Thursday, the US embassy said it would suspend consular services starting on Friday and advised American citizens seeking assistance not to visit its embassy, consulates or other diplomatic facilities.

The statement cited security concerns but gave no further detail on the nature of the threat or any link to the election.

The US State Department said it was working closely with Brazilian counterparts to address the security concerns, adding that embassies and consulates routinely issue alerts about local threats and developments.

Australia’s ambassador to Brazil, Sophie Davies, said on social media that the Australian embassy would also close on Friday, citing the US alert, and advised Australians to avoid US diplomatic facilities.

Brazil’s federal police said they carried out preventive search and seizure warrants in Sao Paulo and the Federal District, the administrative region surrounding the capital, Brasilia, as part of an investigation into suspected plans that could threaten US diplomatic facilities.

Police said the operation followed cooperation with foreign intelligence agencies, but that investigators had found no evidence corroborating the initially reported threat, nor identified any suspects linked to criminal organisations.

An investigation was continuing after the seizure of communications equipment, according to the police.

The closures came two days before the Brazilian presidential election, which pits incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking re-election, against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup.

If neither candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote on Sunday, a runoff will be held on October 25.

Edinho Silva, president of Lula’s Workers’ Party, called the closures “unprecedented”, saying: “It makes no sense at all. It’s one of Trump’s ways of trying to influence Brazilian public opinion.”

Lula’s allies have pointed to US tariffs and an effort by Washington to send officials to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity” as evidence of foreign interference.

Brazilian intelligence officials briefed French and German delegations in Brasilia this month on what they described as US and Russian interference in the race.

US President Donald Trump has publicly praised Flavio Bolsonaro, a close ally, without formally endorsing him, saying he is “watching that election very closely”.

A historic collapse

One factor in the widespread disillusionment has been the Banco Master scandal. The financial imbroglio has delivered a black eye to both ends of Brazil’s political spectrum.

A range of business leaders, political figures, regulators and judges have been swept up in the scandal.

A mid-sized lender, Banco Master grew aggressively over the last decade by selling high-yield deposit certificates. Some of those certificates offered returns of up to 140 percent relative to Brazil’s benchmark interbank rate.

But Banco Master did not have the assets needed to sustain that output.

It lacked the money to pay back its risky loans, and what assets it did have were diverted to shell accounts, according to prosecutors.

Brazil’s Central Bank ultimately liquidated Banco Master in 2025, as the lender faced a major funding squeeze.

Its owner, Daniel Vorcaro, was subsequently arrested, accused of an array of financial crimes, including money laundering and fraud.

The collapse of Banco Master triggered a nearly $7.7bn payout from Brazil’s Credit Guarantee Fund, the largest disbursement in the nonprofit insurance’s history.

Investigators have suggested that Vorcaro protected his fraud scheme by cultivating influence among power brokers among Brazil’s elite.

Among those implicated in the scandal is Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the presidential candidate.

Last month, the Supreme Court unsealed documents showing he is under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering in connection with Vorcaro.

Audio recordings have also surfaced, appearing to show Bolsonaro soliciting the disgraced bank leader for millions in funding. The money was slated as financing for Dark Horse, a film about his imprisoned father, Jair Bolsonaro.

Flavio Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing. He described the interaction as a private sponsorship opportunity, unrelated to the Banco Master scandal.

Brazilian president and opposition candidate snub the final debate ahead of the presidential election.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his main opponent Flavio Bolsonaro have snubbed a chance at a final debate ahead of the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, while police ruled out a bomb threat outside the country’s Supreme Court.

Lula, instead of taking part in the debate, opted to appear on a popular podcast with millions of YouTube subscribers while his rival Bolsonaro accused the electoral court of “censorship” as a reason for his withdrawal.

Bolsonaro, son of the former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, said during a live broadcast on Thursday on his social media channels that his decision not to participate in the debate was due to “censorship imposed by the electoral court”.

The right-wing candidate was referring to a decision that barred the debate broadcaster from keeping President Lula’s empty seat on stage.

The debate organised by TV Globo, the country’s most popular broadcaster, was set for Thursday and offered a final opportunity for the two presidential frontrunners to face off before polls open.

TV Globo said in a statement that the debate was cancelled because two rulings, one from the country’s electoral court and the other from the Supreme Court, had created “legal uncertainty” about the event.

Lula, 80, will face off against Bolsonaro in a first-round vote on Sunday, with polls giving him a slight advantage.

The pair are neck and neck in projections for a potential runoff on October 25, however.

Bomb scare

On the same day of the cancelled debate, Brazilian police ruled out a bomb threat outside the Supreme Court.

A suspect who “tried to jump the court’s fences” and “threw a backpack on top of a bus stop” had been arrested, the court said in a statement.

Authorities examined the backpack, which ultimately contained “only personal belongings,” military police spokesperson Raphael Broocke told AFP.

The suspect will remain in custody while the investigation continues, he added.

The Supreme Court has been criticised by the political right, notably for the 2025 conviction of ex-leader Jair Bolsonaro over a coup plot.

It has also become embroiled in a fraud scandal that has dominated the final weeks of the presidential campaign.

A report stating that the Trump administration directed funds towards right-wing groups comes ahead of Brazil’s presidential election.

Brazil’s attorney general has called on law enforcement to investigate alleged efforts by the United States to interfere in the country’s domestic politics through the diversion of funds to far-right causes.

Attorney General Jorge Messias called for the probe on Thursday, one day after the British newspaper The Guardian published a story suggesting that the administration of United States President Donald Trump planned to award $1m to right-wing civil groups opposing the Brazilian Supreme Court.

Messias stated in a social media post that foreign meddling “cannot be tolerated” and that the report represented “an important alert for Brazilian sovereignty”.

“The information is especially serious in light of Brazil’s electoral process and the recent episodes of external pressure on our institutions,” the attorney general added.

The report comes amid a tense presidential election in which leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is seeking re-election.

Lula has sought to focus attention on efforts Trump has undertaken to boost the prospects of far-right allies across Latin America, warning of threats to regional sovereignty.

Trump has endorsed multiple right-wing candidates ahead of elections across the region, sometimes hinging the possibility of economic support on the voting results.

He has also cultivated close relations with the family of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula in the last presidential election.

Bolsonaro’s eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, is a frontrunner in the race to challenge Lula this year. Recent polls have shown Lula and Bolsonaro virtually tied ahead of the first round of voting on October 4.

Flavio Bolsonaro met with Trump at the White House in May. He has promised closer ties with the US, while Lula has positioned himself as a critic of Trump’s interventionist approach to Latin American politics and security.

The Guardian report published on Wednesday states that the Trump administration sought to redirect $175m from the State Department’s human rights fund to various far-right causes around the world.

The recipients allegedly included groups advocating for white Afrikaners in South Africa that the Trump administration has falsely portrayed as victims of a “genocide” and efforts in Brazil to counter what the US called “lawfare and censorship”.

Brazil’s Supreme Court has been a subject of frequent criticism from the political right, both in Brazil and the US.

Much of that criticism stems from the 2025 conviction of Jair Bolsonaro for involvement in an alleged coup plot, designed to subvert his loss to Lula in the 2022 election.

Bolsonaro and his allies, including Trump, have depicted the case as an instance of political persecution.

Citing the trial, Trump last year placed 50-percent tariffs on certain Brazilian goods that he has since removed.

At the time, he announced the tariffs in a letter that denounced Bolsonaro’s prosecution. “The way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a Highly Respected Leader throughout the World during his term, including by the United States, is an international disgrace,” Trump wrote.

The Trump administration also revoked the visas of Brazilian judicial officials involved in Bolsonaro’s case in an effort to have it tossed out. It also levied short-lived sanctions against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, accusing him of “an unlawful witch hunt” against right-wing voices.

Bolsonaro was ultimately convicted and sentenced to a 27-year prison sentence in September 2025.

In June, one of his sons, Eduardo Bolsonaro, was sentenced to more than four years in prison after a court ruled he had lobbied for US interference in his father’s case.

The case is the latest dispute over US President Donald Trump’s sweeping immigration crackdown.

The United States Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case focused on the Trump administration’s policy requiring millions of undocumented immigrants to remain in detention while they fight deportation.

The case, accepted on Thursday by the justices, is the latest dispute over US President Donald Trump’s sweeping immigration crackdown to reach the nation’s highest court.

At issue is whether migrants already living in the US have a legal right to a hearing where a judge can decide whether they should be released on bond from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention while their deportation cases are pending.

In July 2025, the administration introduced new guidance directing federal immigration authorities to detain undocumented immigrants without a bond hearing for the duration of their deportation proceedings, which can last for years.

The new policy, which has divided lower courts, reverses a decades-old interpretation that allowed some immigrants in the US to be released while their cases were pending in immigration court, according to Reuters news agency.

Most US federal appeals courts have ruled that immigrants cannot be detained without a bond hearing. But the 5th and 8th US Circuit Courts of Appeals have found that immigrants accused of illegally entering and remaining in the country must remain detained while their deportation cases proceed.

Trump administration attorneys told the Associated Press the split is “disrupting the orderly administration of immigration law”.

“The result is an unworkable patchwork of inconsistent immigration enforcement, where aliens present without admission are subject to mandatory detention in some circuits but are entitled to bond hearings and often released in others,” the lawyers wrote.

Millions could be affected

The Supreme Court case stems from a 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals ruling involving Ricardo Aparecido Barbosa da Cunha, a Brazilian national who entered the US around 2004 or 2005.

Immigration officers arrested him in September 2025 while he was driving to work in the US state of Massachusetts. He was initially denied a bond hearing under the administration’s policy but was later released on bond, according to court documents cited by Reuters.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), which is representing the plaintiffs, told the Associated Press the Trump administration is trying to deny bond hearings for immigrants apprehended within the US rather than limiting the restriction to noncitizens stopped at the border.

“Millions of noncitizens could be affected by the government’s new interpretation,” ACLU attorneys wrote.

The Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments on Monday, when its new term starts.

Beef prices are soaring in China. Across the Pacific Ocean in the United States, cattle farmers are complaining that their businesses are becoming increasingly unsustainable. And in India, poultry rearers are slashing their production targets because they cannot afford feed.

More than 90 percent of the world’s population eats meat in one form or another — and a looming meat crisis threatens to affect what they buy at the market, what they cook at home, and what’s served on the table.

At the heart of this is a chain of decisions and uncertainties that consumers rarely see. A cow has to be raised for years before it can become beef. Chickens need feed, much of it tied to global grain and soya bean markets. Farmers need land, water and weather conditions that allow them to keep animals alive and productive.

When any link in this chain is disrupted, a spiralling crisis ensues.

So what is putting the pressure on meat production, and what does it mean for billions of people around the world?

Declining cattle stocks in Brazil, US and China

Brazil, the US and China are the world’s three biggest beef producers, together supplying more than half of the world’s beef. But their cattle herds are shrinking at the same time.

According to a March estimate by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil’s total herd this year is estimated at 177.4 million cattle — a nearly 8 percent drop from 192.5 million in 2024.

Over in the US, cattle numbers are at a historic low.

The USDA counted 86.2 million cattle and calves on farms on January 1, 2026. The number of beef cows — the females needed to produce future calves — was 27.6 million, down 1 percent from a year earlier. The 2025 calf crop was also down 2 percent.

In China, the USDA estimated a cattle head count of 94 million in January 2026, down 14 percent from 105 million in January 2024.

In all three cases, beef production is also projected to be down in 2026.

The USDA predicts a 2 percent decline in Brazil’s beef production and a 5 percent fall in exports. As for the US, beef production in 2026 is likely to be 4 percent lower than last year. China’s total beef supply this year is projected to be 12 percent lower than 2024.

The decline in domestic production, coupled with shrinking supplies that can be imported, has sent prices soaring in China — the world’s largest beef consumer and importer.

What’s driving down cattle herds and beef production?

The reasons are many, and they vary from country to country.

Brazil counts China and the European Union as two major markets for its beef exports. But both have imposed import restrictions that have disincentivised Brazilian beef manufacturers. That is partly responsible for the country’s decreased cattle head count, according to an analysis by Augusto Neto at S&P Global, the market intelligence firm.

Additionally, Brazil is currently in what is known as a cattle reversion cycle — when rearers reduce the slaughter of animals and instead try to preserve their female stock to help rebuild their herd — according to the USDA.

In the US, droughts have hit 60 percent of the country’s cattle-rearing area, according to a report by Sampad Nandy of S&P Global. With grazing areas decreasing, feed costs have risen.

Three major organisations, representing breeders in the states of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, issued a joint statement this week arguing that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids were disrupting their already strained operations. The meat industry depends heavily on immigrant workers.

If beef prices are rising, shouldn’t rearers want to produce more beef?

In theory, yes. But in practice, high prices do not automatically mean that more cattle can be produced quickly.

Cattle production is constrained by biological supply cycles, Kenneth Foster, professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, told Al Jazeera. It can take a couple of years for a producer who receives a signal from the market to expand production and actually see the resulting animals enter the beef supply. The quickest way to rebuild a herd is to keep female cattle that might otherwise have been sold and use them for breeding. That is what Brazil is now doing.

But that creates a difficult economic calculation. A producer can sell an animal today at a high price, or keep it for breeding and wait for the next generation. That means carrying the costs and risks of keeping the animal while waiting for it to reproduce.

The result is a market in which strong demand and limited supply can persist even when prices are already high.

The USDA expects the cattle herd to begin rebuilding in the US, but the process is gradual.

The US and Brazil cases illustrate one of the central problems facing meat production: sometimes the constraint is not technology, land or money.

It is time.

Europe’s move from beef to poultry

Meanwhile, Europe presents a different picture. The continent is witnessing a structural change in what consumers are eating.

The EU produced about 42.7 million tonnes of meat in 2025. But EU meat production is projected to decline by about 3 percent between 2025 and 2035, with beef production projected to fall by 10 percent and pork by 7 percent. Poultry is the exception: production is projected to rise by 5 percent.

This shift is also visible in consumption.

Consumption of EU beef and pigmeat is projected to decline through 2035, while poultry consumption is expected to increase by 9 percent.

Beef and pork require longer production cycles and face different economic and environmental pressures. Poultry, by contrast, can respond much more quickly to changes in demand because chickens reach market weight within weeks rather than years.

That difference is becoming increasingly important. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook expects poultry to be the fastest-growing major meat category globally over the next decade, helped by its relatively low cost and short production cycle.

Europe is therefore becoming an example of how a meat system can adapt without simply producing more of everything. Some forms of meat become harder or more expensive to produce, while others expand to fill part of the space.

Poultry has problems too — as India shows

Yet the poultry industry faces its own challenges, with India offering an example.

In June, a large section of India’s poultry industry announced plans to cut production by 25 percent after soya meal prices rose by more than 40 percent in a month.

The decision was announced by the All India Poultry Breeders’ Association after producers faced sharply higher feed costs and a seasonal decline in demand. Producers also began culling parent breeder stocks — birds needed to produce future generations of poultry.

Soya meal is an important protein source in animal feed. When its price rises sharply, poultry producers face a choice: absorb higher costs, raise prices, or reduce the number of birds they produce.

In India’s case, producers chose to cut production.

The consequences extended beyond individual farms. The Reuters news agency reported in May that Indian soya meal prices had risen 41 percent in one month to a four-year high of 66,000 rupees ($687.5) per tonne. India subsequently cancelled 25,000 tonnes of soya meal export contracts and began turning to soya bean imports from African countries.

The takeaway: a shock in one part of the agricultural system can move quickly through the meat supply chain globally.

As farmers try to protect their livelihoods and families try to keep food on the table, changing climates, rising prices, shifting dietary preferences and growing trade barriers are together reshaping the future of meat — and what we eat.

As Brazilians head into national elections, there’s a familiar name on the ballot: Bolsonaro. Not former President Jair Bolsonaro. It’s his son Flavio, who is presenting himself to the electorate as a more moderate version of his father.

Election coverage has been dominated by a major corruption scandal – the biggest banking fraud case in the country’s history. Brazilians are accustomed to corruption scandals involving political figures. The coverage tends to be framed as: they’re all equally corrupt.

Contributors:
Andrew Fishman – President & co-founder, Intercept Brasil
David Nemer – Professor, University of Virginia
Andre Pagliarini – Professor, Louisiana State University
Natalia Portinari – Reporter, O Globo

On our radar: Donald Trump’s decision to bar three news outlets from the White House appears to have backfired after journalists organised a media boycott and a judge overturned the ban. Tariq Nafi has been tracking the latest duel between the US president and the media.

Spain’s neo-Nazis: spectacle vs reality

A fringe neo-Nazi movement in Spain, Nucleo Nacional, has attracted a growing online following by packaging incendiary and slickly produced content. The mainstream media attention the group has received has made a marginal organisation appear far larger and more influential than it is. The Listening Post’s Elettra Scrivo travels to Madrid – where she comes face-to-face with Nucleo Nacional’s members – to look at the reality that lies behind the spectacle.

Featuring:
Miquel Ramos – Author, ‘Antifascistas’
Urszula Mrozowska – Digital researcher in hate speech and extremism

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is up 2 points, but that’s still within the poll’s margin of error.

⁠Brazilian President ⁠Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, ⁠his main challenger, in a potential run-off ahead of October’s presidential election, a Datafolha poll has shown.

In poll results released Thursday, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off. A previous Datafolha poll last week had ‌Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46 percent to 44 percent.

The result also represents a technical tie as it falls within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points.

In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with ⁠40 percent of the vote, followed ⁠by Bolsonaro (36 percent), Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (4 percent) and Renan Santos (3 percent).

The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39 percent against the ⁠right-wing senator’s 36 percent.

Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of ⁠former President Jair Bolsonaro, who ⁠is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.

Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president.

If no candidate ‌wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance ‌to ‌a run-off.

Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23.

Earlier this week, two other polls showed similar results.

A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential run-off, versus 41 percent for Lula.

Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential run-off.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is running in October’s election for a fourth non-consecutive mandate as Brazil’s president.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain deadlocked in the latest polls, with the first round of Brazil’s election less than two weeks away.

Two new polls on Monday showed that the pair are statistically tied in simulated runoffs ahead of next month’s election. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.

Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term as Brazil’s president, but faces a challenge from the political right in Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Donald Trump.

The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible for office after Brazil’s top electoral court found he had abused his power while in office. He was later convicted separately over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.

A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential runoff, versus 41 percent for Lula.

Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential runoff.

The latest polls mark a narrowing from an earlier Quaest poll on August 5, which put Lula ahead by a wider five-point margin, 44 percent to 39 percent.

US pressure looms over election

Lula launched his re-election bid on August 2 at the Workers’ Party convention in Sao Paulo, casting himself as a defender of Brazilian “sovereignty” as pressure from the US administration looms over the race.

The US imposed two fresh rounds of tariffs on Brazilian products in July, which Lula denounced as an attempt to influence the elections through economic pressure.

The Brazilian leader is currently in New York, where he is preparing to address the United Nations General Assembly.

Lula met New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani for the first time on Monday. In a brief statement to reporters after the meeting, the Brazilian president said the two had talked about problems common to both Brazil and the United States, particularly the rising cost of living.