war

United States President Donald Trump has said that the US military operation to move stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz has been paused temporarily.

Trump made the announcement on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday.

He said the decision was made “based on the request” of Pakistan and other countries and the “fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement” with representatives of Iran.

“We have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” he wrote.

There was no immediate comment from Iran.

Trump’s announcement came as tensions escalated in the Gulf, with the US military saying it destroyed several Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as cruise missiles and drones. The United Arab Emirates said its air defences dealt with missile and drone attacks from Iran for a second day, while another commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz reported being hit by an “unknown projectile”.

For its part, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a new map of the strait, with an expanded area of Iranian control, and warned vessels on Tuesday to stick to the corridors it has set or face a “decisive response”.

In Washington, DC, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the US has completed its offensive operations against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury”, and “there’s no shooting unless we’re shot at first”.

But Iran must “pay a price” for its efforts to control the strait, he said.

“The Straits of Hormuz do not belong to Iran. They don’t have a right to shut it down and blow up ships and lay mines,” Rubio said.

“Under no circumstances can we live in a world where we accept, ‘OK, this is normal – you have to coordinate with Iran. You have to pay them a toll in order to go through the Straits of Hormuz’. Not only is that unacceptable in the straits, you’re creating a precedent that could be repeated in multiple other places around the world.”

The maritime chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies normally pass, has been effectively sealed by Iran since the US and Israel launched their war on the country on February 28.

Following a ceasefire in April, the US imposed its own blockade on Iranian ports in a bid to compel Tehran to agree to Washington’s terms in peace talks mediated by Pakistan, including reopening the key waterway and halting all nuclear enrichment.

The closure of the strait has disrupted global trade, causing oil and fertiliser prices to soar and prompting fears of a global recession and a food emergency.

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump told reporters at the White House that the US’s military and economic action was forcing Tehran to the negotiating table despite its defiant public stance.

“Iran wants to make a deal. What I don’t like about Iran is they’ll talk to me with such great respect, and then they’ll go on television. They’ll say, ‘We did not speak to the president’,” he said. “So they play games. But let me just tell you, they want to make a deal. And who wouldn’t? When your military is totally gone, we could do anything we want to them.”

Trump, who is facing mounting pressure at home as petrol prices rise ahead of crucial midterm elections, went on to say that Iran’s military had ‌been reduced to firing “peashooters”.

When asked what Iran would need to do to violate the ceasefire, Trump said: “They know what not ⁠to do.”

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, meanwhile, said that the renewed violence in the Strait of Hormuz does not constitute a breach of the four-week-old truce.

“American forces won’t need to enter Iranian waters. It’s not necessary. We’re not looking for a fight. But Iran cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from international waterways,” he said at the Pentagon.

“Right now, the ceasefire certainly holds, but we’re going to be watching very, very closely,” he added.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says ceasefire with Iran remains in place despite growing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Sudan has recalled its ambassador to Addis Ababa, accusing Ethiopia of being behind attacks on Khartoum’s airport. International Crisis Group’s Alan Boswell says the escalation risks making the countries’ internal challenges worse.

Available for over a year

Today, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth says the US-Iran ceasefire “is not over”, despite attacks in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.

Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” aims to use the US military to guide stranded cargo ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. But, Iran insists that it controls the strait – and yesterday fired missiles and drones at military and commercial ships, according to the US. Adam is joined by chief presenter Caitriona Perry and business editor Simon Jack.

And, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said “every part of society” has a responsibility to tackle antisemitism in the UK at a summit in Downing Street. It comes after the stabbing of two Jewish men in Golders Green and a string of attacks at synagogues and other Jewish sites in recent months. Adam and Alex speak with special correspondent Lucy Manning.

You can now listen to Newscast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say “Ask BBC Sounds to play Newscast”. It works on most smart speakers.

You can join our Newscast online community here: https://bbc.in/newscastdiscord

Get in touch with Newscast by emailing newscast@bbc.co.uk or send us a WhatsApp on +44 0330 123 9480.

New episodes released every day. If you’re in the UK, for more News and Current Affairs podcasts from the BBC, listen on BBC Sounds: https://bbc.in/4guXgXd

Newscast brings you daily analysis of the latest political news stories from the BBC. The presenter was Adam Fleming. It was made by Jack Maclaren with Anna Harris. The social producer was Gabriel Purcell-Davis. The technical producer was Ben Andrews. The assistant editor is Chris Gray. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

Programme WebsiteShow less

Tehran, Iran – Iran’s judiciary has promised to continue taking “decisive” action against people it accuses of working for foreign interests as it reports more executions and asset seizures.

Judiciary and security authorities said they will “act decisively against the enemies’ mercenaries without leniency until the very last one”, according to a state television report aired late on Monday.

The report came hours after judicial authorities executed three men who were arrested in the northeastern city of Mashhad during nationwide protests in January, which top officials have called a “coup” attempt led by the United States and Israel.

State media aired what it presented as confessions by the men, who were labelled “agents” of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad and “leaders of riots” by the authorities. The report said the men acted against the government by using knives and swords against paramilitary Basij forces and damaging public property.

An increasing number of prisoners have been hanged over recent weeks, particularly since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28. The executions are connected to the antiestablishment protests, during which thousands of people were killed amid a state-imposed internet shutdown.

In Isfahan last week, 21-year-old Sasan Azadvar was executed for “cooperation with the enemy” for acts that included, according to the judiciary, “attacking a minibus carrying security forces with stones and a club and breaking windows of public buses and private vehicles”.

The authorities maintained that while the judicial process has been significantly speeded up for those arrested in connection with the protests, the proceedings remain legal and executions are carried out after being greenlit by Supreme Court judges.

Foreign-based human rights organisations and opponents of Iran’s government have said prisoners are not given fair trials and their families are pressured into remaining silent about arrests and executions, charges Iranian authorities reject.

A number of prisoners have also been executed after being convicted of espionage for Israel and other national security charges. Security offences can lead to a conviction of moharebeh, or “waging war against God”, and other sentences that carry the death penalty.

Earlier this week, two men were hanged for allegedly sending images of military facilities to the Mossad, trying to recruit others for sabotage activities and calling security authorities with fabricated leads to divert them.

Multiple members of the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), a foreign-based group considered a “terrorist” outfit by Iranian authorities, have also been executed over recent weeks.

Foreign-based human rights organisations reported that Iranian authorities have in 2025 and 2026 carried out the largest number of hangings since 1989 when political dissidents and MEK members received death sentences in large numbers.

A report by Iran Human Rights and Together Against the Death Penalty last month said at least 1,639 executions were recorded in 2025, which was 68 percent higher than the year before.

The United Nations confirmed at the end of April that since the start of this year’s war, at least 21 people have been executed and more than 4,000 arrested on national security-related charges. Iranian authorities have not commented on the figures.

Economic measures

Iranian authorities have also confiscated the private assets of Iranians inside and outside the country in response to perceived antiestablishment activities.

The latest such move was announced on Tuesday morning when the judiciary announced that authorities in Semnan province, located east of Tehran, had seized the assets of 22 “traitors to the nation and people who are linked with the Zionist regime [Israel] and hostile countries”.

During the naval blockade imposed by the US, which has exacerbated the already dire economic conditions in Iran, authorities have also warned that they will act against any disruptive measures, such as hoarding goods, and have threatened prison time of up to 20 years, lashings and fines for anyone convicted.

Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei also warned that those hoarding, price gouging or selling expired goods will be met with “decisive” legal action.

Prices surged this week across the country, especially for food, medicine, cars and electronic devices. And there are potentially challenging times ahead with little sign of a lasting resolution to the conflict with the US and Israel despite an ongoing ceasefire.

“The current price levels are unacceptable. The price increases are due to the war tumult and sanctions,” Central Bank of Iran chief Abdolnasser Hemmati said on Tuesday. “But the people should not be worried because their resistance is working and, God willing, victory will be achieved soon.”

Iranian commander says US military attacked two passenger boats, not IRGC vessels, in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.

Iran has accused the United States of killing five civilians in the Strait of Hormuz, saying its forces attacked passenger vessels in the waterway rather than boats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as claimed.

The claim on Tuesday contradicted a statement by US Admiral Brad Cooper, who said Central Command forces had sunk six IRGC vessels that had attempted to interfere with a US mission to escort stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump later put the number at seven boats.

The US operation, dubbed “Project Freedom”, has shaken a fragile ceasefire reached between Iran and the US on April 8 and renewed fears of a return to war.

Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB quoted an unnamed Iranian military commander as saying that Tehran launched an investigation following the US claim of attacks on IRGC vessels.

It said while none of the IRGC vessels was hit, the investigation found that US forces had “attacked two small boats carrying people on their way from Khasab on the coast of Oman to the coast of Iran on Monday”.

The attacks destroyed the boats and killed five civilian passengers, the commander said. The US “must be held accountable for their crime”, the commander added.

There was no immediate comment from the US military.

The violence comes as Trump seeks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blockaded following the US and Israeli attacks on the country on February 28.

The closure of the vital maritime corridor – through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies flow – has sent oil and fertiliser prices surging around the world and prompted fears of a global recession and food emergency.

Iran is now insisting on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and collecting transit fees as reparations for the destruction caused by the US and Israel.

Attacks on UAE, ships in Hormuz

The Iranian military on Monday warned commercial vessels they would “jeopardise their safety” if they attempted to cross the waterway without permission. The military also warned US forces would face attacks if they approached or entered the chokepoint.

Amid the tensions, the United Arab Emirates said Iran launched a drone attack on one of its oil tankers that attempted to transit the strait and said Iranian forces launched 15 ballistic missiles and four drones at its territory.

UAE authorities said the attacks set off a large fire at a major oil refinery in the eastern emirate of Fujairah and wounded three Indian nationals.

A South Korean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the HMM Namu, also reported an attack, saying an explosion had caused a fire in its engine room.

Nonetheless, the US military said two US-flagged ships made it through the strait on Monday with the support of navy guided-missile destroyers.

The IRGC denied the claim as “baseless and completely false”, but the global shipping firm Maersk said the US-flagged Alliance Fairfax exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz accompanied by the US military on Monday.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the events in Hormuz on Monday “make clear there’s no military solution to a political crisis”.

He said in a post on X that peace talks with the US were “making progress” with Pakistan’s mediation and that Washington “should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers”.

“So should the UAE,” he added. “Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.”

Meanwhile, Trump has renewed his threats against Iran.

He told Fox News Iran would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attacked US vessels carrying out Project Freedom.

“We have more weapons and ammunition at a much higher grade than we had before,” he said.

“We have the best equipment. We have stuff all over the world. We have these bases worldwide. They’re all stocked up with equipment. We can use all of that stuff, and we will, if we need it.”

Published on
05/05/2026 – 7:12 GMT+2

Oil prices fell back in early trade but remained elevated as investors kept an eye on escalating tensions between the US and Iran and progress on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading 1.38% lower at $112.86 while US crude, or WTI, was down 2.27% at $104 per barrel. US futures edged 0.1% higher.

Elsewhere, regional trading was thin overnight with markets in Japan, South Korea and mainland China closed for holidays.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.1% to 25,805.98. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.5% to 8,649.80, while Taiwan’s Taiex traded 0.2% lower at 40,626.22.

The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran was tested on Monday after the US military said it had sank six Iranian small boats targeting civilian ships, while two US-flagged ships successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

The key waterway for oil and gas transport remains largely closed despite repeated demands from the US for Iran to reopen the strait and as the United States imposed a sea blockade on Iranian ports. US President Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” plan under which the United States would help guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz began on Monday.

Brent crude, the international standard, surged above $114 a barrel on Monday, gaining nearly 6%. Before the war began in late February, it was trading near $70.

The extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has created what Goldman Sachs describes as “extreme tightness” in Europe’s jet fuel supply, and the UK is seen as particularly vulnerable

Britain is at risk of rationing jet fuel due to shortages stemming from the Iran conflict, an expert has claimed.

With supplies potentially dropping to “critically low levels”, concern has grown for Europe’s jet fuel market and the consequences this will have on travel this summer. Some airlines, such as KLM and Lufthansa, have already cancelled flights due to fears about fuel.

Now, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banks, has said the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created “extreme tightness” in the market and the UK is especially exposed due to its limited stockpiles, heavy reliance on imports, and constrained refining capacity. It means the prospect of rationing is believed to being considered to help sustain the travel sector.

Jet fuel prices have doubled since the war began on February 28, prompting bleak warnings from Keir Starmer that travellers may need to rethink their holiday plans.

READ MORE: British Airways, Ryanair, easyJet and Jet2 issue fuel warning amid Middle East warREAD MORE: Soaring petrol prices to have ‘huge consequences for teachers and schools’

Goldman Sachs said in a research note: “The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer. As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.”

The Gulf region supplies around one-fifth of globally traded fuel, and with Europe heavily dependent on those flows, airlines are now competing for alternative sources — driving prices even higher. According to The Times, Goldman Sachs noted that the UK, as Europe’s largest net importer of jet fuel, lacks strategic reserves and relies primarily on commercial inventories as a buffer. Those levels, particularly in Britain, could fall dangerously low, increasing the likelihood of rationing.

Any sustained shortage would likely force airlines to cancel or consolidate flights while pushing ticket prices upward. Fuel accounts for as much as a quarter of airline operating costs. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, has already indicated it will raise fares to offset higher fuel expenses, acknowledging it is “not immune” to ongoing volatility despite hedging strategies.

Air France expects its jet fuel bill to rise by $2.4billion (£1.77million) this year, while American Airlines anticipates an increase of more than $4billion (£2.96million) — costs that are expected to translate into higher fares and reduced perks for passengers.

Although UK ministers have suggested supplies can be sourced from elsewhere, industry figures are less optimistic. Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said airlines are “desperately” looking for flights to cancel and could begin doing so within weeks.

Fuel suppliers have also warned that the UK has the “most limited visibility” in Europe when it comes to jet fuel supply, largely because of its dependence on Middle Eastern imports.

The European Commission said it would issue guidance to airlines this week, with a spokesperson noting that uncertainty remains high and preparations are being made for multiple scenarios.

Analysts also pointed to the UK’s reduced refining capacity following the closure of the Grangemouth refinery — Scotland’s only oil refinery — last April. Concerns had also surrounded the future of the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, though its new owner, Phillips 66, said the recent acquisition should help stabilise supply.

A report from the Tony Blair Institute argued that Europe’s climate-focused energy policies have contributed to higher prices — two to three times those of competitors — and increased dependence on imports.

Fuel suppliers said May demand should remain manageable but warned that disruptions could begin by mid-to-late June if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

BEIRUT — Confusion reigned on Monday over the fate of a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran after a wave of fresh strikes on the United Arab Emirates and Oman, along with reports of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, undermined confidence in the truce.

The drone and missile strikes, the first since a ceasefire halted fighting in early April, come after the Trump administration launched a wide-scale naval operation on Monday to “guide” stranded maritime vessels out of the vital waterway.

But fears over a return to war have driven another surge in oil prices, pushing them above $114 per barrel — levels not seen since the ceasefire nearly a month ago. Hundreds of cargo ships from dozens of countries remain stuck in the Gulf. And strikes in Dubai have raised concerns about further disruptions to international air travel at one of the world’s busiest airports.

Iran’s state-run news agency, IRNA, said the new U.S. operation was part of President Trump’s “delirium,” after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that passage through the strait required prior approval from Tehran.

“We warn that any foreign armed force, especially the invading American army, will be attacked if they attempt to approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz,” said Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, according to a statement reported by the Iranian state-run Mehr News Agency on Monday.

The operation, which Trump over the weekend dubbed “Project Freedom,” is supported by 15,000 U.S. servicemen and 100 aircraft, according to U.S. Central Command. Their aim is to deny Tehran control over the strait, a narrow, 21-mile-wide passageway through which a fifth of global energy supplies flows.

On Monday, Trump vowed Iran’s forces will be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attempt to disrupt Project Freedom.

“We have more weapons and ammunition at a much higher grade than we had before,” Trump was quoted as saying in an interview with Fox News.

“We have the best equipment. We have stuff all over the world. We have these bases all over the world. They’re all stocked up with equipment. We can use all of that stuff, and we will, if we need it.”

Iran blocked traffic through the strait soon after the United States and Israel launched their campaign on the country. Last month, days after a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran came into effect, the United States enforced its own naval blockade on Iranian ports in a bid to pressure Iran to make concessions in stalled negotiations.

On Monday, Central Command said in a statement that two American-flagged merchant ships were able to successfully transit the strait, while Central Command head Adm. Brad Cooper said the U.S. military sank six Iranian boats and intercepted missiles and drones targeting civilian vessels.

“We have defeated each and every one of those threats through the clinical application of defensive munitions,” he said.

“Project Freedom is a defensive operation, and we have deployed anti-ballistic missile destroyers,” he added. “Ships in the Gulf waters belong to 87 countries, and we urge ships to cross the strait.”

IRIB, Iran’s state-run broadcaster, quoted a senior Iranian military official who denied Cooper’s claim of sunk Iranian boats. The IRGC said in a statement on the messaging app Telegram that claims of commercial vessels or tankers traversing the strait were “baseless and completely false.”

Though Cooper did not clarify if the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was now over, a raft of attacks throughout Monday spiked fears that the war would restart, spurring sharp price increases in already-jittery energy markets.

The UAE said a fire broke out and three Indian nationals were injured in the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a key export hub for the country, after what it described as an Iranian drone attack.

It also accused Iran of targeting a tanker linked to the country’s state oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the Strait of Hormuz, while the country’s defense ministry also reported four cruise missiles launched from Iran, saying that it intercepted three of them while the fourth fell in the sea.

“These attacks constitute a dangerous escalation and an unacceptable transgression,” said a statement from the UAE’s foreign ministry, adding that it “reserves its full and legitimate right to respond to these attacks.”

Elsewhere, two foreign workers were injured in an attack on a residential building in the Omani coastal province of Bukha, according to a statement from an unnamed security source quoted by the state-run Oman News Agency. Authorities were investigating the incident but did not elaborate on the perpetrator.

The U.K.’s Maritime Trade Operations Center reported on Monday that a commercial vessel was on fire off the coast of the UAE, while a South Korean bulk carrier ship said it suffered an explosion and a fire in its engine room and the cause was being investigated.

Bulos reported from Beirut, Wilner from Washington.

Iran claims its navy forced a US warship to turn back from the Strait of Hormuz as Washington denies any clash, amid rising tensions in the key waterway. The rival narratives come after US President Donald Trump announced Project Freedom, a mission he framed as a humanitarian effort to “free” stranded ships.

Raman Kapoor, an Indian oil tanker captain stranded in the Gulf, says no vessel will attempt to exit the Strait of Hormuz without assurance of safety, despite the announcement of a US evacuation plan for ships stranded by the war.

The United States has transferred 22 crew members from the Iranian container ship, the Touska, to Pakistan, in what Islamabad describes as a “confidence-building measure” during tension in the Strait of Hormuz.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesman, Captain Tim Hawkins, said the crew had been handed over for repatriation. Pakistan’s foreign ministry confirmed the transfer, saying the sailors would be returned to Iranian authorities.

The Touska was seized by US forces in the Gulf of Oman in the early hours of April 20, in what Tehran described as an act of “piracy”, after the US declared a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran had effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz following the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

On Monday, tensions continued to escalate in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

First, US President Donald Trump announced that US naval ships would help guide stranded vessels through the strait in an operation he dubbed “Project Freedom”.

Iran issued a new map of the strait with new boundaries further to the east, and warned shipping not to attempt to pass without coordinating with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Then, state media reported that two Iranian missiles struck a US naval vessel near Jask Island in the strait after ignoring warnings from the IRGC to turn back. Washington denied any attack.

Amid continued interceptions and seizures of vessels by both sides, questions remain over whether the two countries can de-escalate and reach a broader peace agreement. Pakistan has been central to these efforts, seeking to keep diplomatic channels open, but talks hosted in Islamabad last month ended without a breakthrough.

Iran’s foreign ministry says it is reviewing Washington’s response to its 14-point proposal aimed at ending the conflict sent via Pakistan on Friday. As Pakistan continues to mediate, Trump previously described Tehran’s offer as “unacceptable”.

What happened to the Touska?

The Iran-flagged Touska was seized by US forces in the Gulf of Oman, close to the Strait of Hormuz, on April 20 after Washington accused the crew of failing to comply with the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Shortly after midnight local time in Iran, CENTCOM said the USS Spruance fired its 5-inch (127mm) deck gun at the vessel’s engine room, disabling it.

According to the US military, the ship was attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz en route to Iran’s main commercial port, Bandar Abbas.

The Touska, a small container ship operated by the sanctioned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), was boarded near Iran’s Chabahar port. US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit captured the vessel after what CENTCOM said were repeated warnings over six hours.

Video released by the US military showed Marines descending from helicopters launched from the USS Tripoli and securing the Tusk.

Iran condemned the capture as a violation of international law and an act of “piracy“, before demanding the immediate release of the vessel and its crew.

What does the release of the Touska’s crew mean, diplomatically?

Pakistan has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, and is now framing the transfer of the Touska crew as a step towards de-escalation of tensions. In a statement, the Pakistani foreign ministry said the move reflected a “confidence-building measure” and reaffirmed its commitment to facilitating dialogue.

US and Iranian delegations met in Islamabad last month for their first talks since 1979. Although negotiations ended without a deal, they marked a rare moment of direct engagement.

Pakistan has since coordinated with regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Qatar and Egypt, while maintaining close communications with China, in an effort to build broader support for de-escalation.

In a call with Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, on Monday, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Ishaq Dar, reiterated that diplomacy remains the only viable path to stability. Tehran, in turn, acknowledged Islamabad’s mediation efforts.

Will this de-escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz?

There are not many signs that it will.

Indeed, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have continued to increase despite the release of the crew members.

Most notably, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard published a new map on Monday outlining what it claims is an expanded zone of control in the waterway, stretching from Iranian and Omani territory to include the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates as well.

Analysts say this new claim exceeds internationally recognised boundaries. The UAE has accused Iran of launching drones at an oil tanker linked to Abu Dhabi’s national energy company, while Washington has dismissed Iranian reports of an attack on a US warship as false.

Military analyst Alexandru Hudisteanu, a maritime security expert who served 13 years in the Romanian navy, told Al Jazeera on Monday that the conflicting claims reflect a broader test of resolve. “Any attempt to open the strait will likely be met with resistance from Iran,” he said, adding that Tehran views control of Hormuz as its primary leverage in negotiations.

Hudisteanu warned that the situation carries a high risk of miscalculation, with both sides continuing to operate in close proximity. For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is the “only leverage” it has for peace negotiations, Hudisteanu said.

Iranian analyst Foad Izadi argued that the ceasefire effectively collapsed when the US imposed its blockade, which he described as “an act of war”. He added that the targeting and seizure of ships along the Strait of Hormuz further undermined any notion of a truce.

“Attacking an Iranian ship’s engine is an act of war as well,” he added, despite the release of the Touska’s crew signalling some short-term goodwill between the US and Iran.

“I have all the cards,” posted the White House on its X account on Sunday, alongside an image of President Donald Trump holding playing cards from the Uno game, in a message appearing to signal Washington’s confidence in its ongoing war on Iran.

Uno is a card game in which the winner is the first to get rid of all their cards.

The post came after Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that the US military would begin guiding ships stranded around the Strait of Hormuz by the war on Monday, in a sign that the conflict could further escalate, despite the near-month-long fragile ceasefire. Tehran has been effectively blocking nearly all shipping from the Gulf for more than two months, after the US and Israel attacked Iran two months ago, disrupting global energy supplies.

“We have told these countries that we will guide their ships safely out of these restricted waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business,” Trump said, dubbing the campaign “Project Freedom”. “They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders!”

The president added that US negotiators were engaged in “very positive discussions” with Tehran, which could lead to “something very positive” without further elaboration.

Iran, however, reacted by insisting that the security of the waterway was in the hands of its armed forces, and warned that “any safe passage and navigation in any situation” should be “carried out in coordination with the armed forces”.

On Monday, the Iranian Fars news agency reported that a US warship had been hit by two Iranian drones, the claim was denied by US Central Command.

So what leverage do the US and Iran hold over each other, and what happens next?

In response to Trump’s “I have all the cards” social media post, Iran’s Consulate General in Hyderabad, India, posted its own image on X.

“Yes, we have less cards,” Iran’s consulate in the Indian city of Hyderabad wrote on X, together with a photo of an Iranian military spokesperson holding four Uno cards compared to Trump’s five, pointing out that usually holding all the cards means you are losing, not winning, in the game of Uno.

In response to Trump’s “Project Freedom” declaration, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that ships deemed to be in breach of its rules in the Strait of Hormuz “will be stopped by force”, while insisting there has been no change in how it manages traffic through the strategic waterway.

On Monday, it issued a new map of the Strait of Hormuz with boundaries extending further to the east than its previous one, and said any ship travelling between the two sides must coordinate with the IRGC first.

“There has been no change in the management process of the Strait of Hormuz,” spokesperson Sardar Mohebbi said, adding that vessels that comply with the “transit protocols issued by the IRGC Navy” will be “safe and secure”.

“Other maritime movements that are contrary to the declared principles of the IRGC Navy will face serious risks. Violating vessels will be stopped by force,” he said.

What leverage does the US have over Iran?

Sanctions

The United States’ most enduring source of leverage over Iran remains its sanctions regime, which was launched in 1979 when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared Iran an Islamic Republic.

Successive US administrations over the past 47 years have hit Tehran with a series of financial restrictions targeting Iran’s banking, oil exports and access to international markets – the US says the sanctions are a response to Iran’s nuclear programme.

Sanctions have significantly constrained Iran’s economy, limiting government revenue and contributing to inflation and currency depreciation. Measures enforced through the US Treasury also deter other countries and companies from engaging with Iran, further strangling its economy.

The economic pressure has been central to US strategy towards Iran, particularly during its attempts to force Tehran back to negotiations over its nuclear programme, under both Democratic and Republican administrations.

Military power

Beyond economics, the US maintains overwhelming military superiority, especially air power. Aircraft carriers, long-range bombers and precision strike capabilities give Washington the ability to target Iranian infrastructure with relatively low risk to its own forces.

US bases across the Gulf, as well as military partnerships with regional allies – most notably Israel – reinforce this advantage.

American forces, together with the Israeli army, have killed more than 3,000 people, and struck thousands of sites across Iran in the current war, including Iran’s energy and nuclear sites.

Naval blockade

Since mid-April, the United States has enforced a widespread naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships. The operation began on April 13 after talks between Washington and Tehran collapsed, with US forces ordered to stop or divert vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports.

US forces have since intercepted or turned back dozens of ships, and seized a container ship, the Touska. On Monday, the US announced that its crew had been repatriated to Iran from Pakistan, where they were taken after their ship was captured in the Gulf of Oman last month.

According to Trump, the blockade is designed to choke Iran’s oil exports, its main revenue source.

US officials say the measures have severely disrupted Iran’s trade, which relies heavily on sea routes.

What leverage does Iran have?

Strait of Hormuz

The vital waterway is Iran’s most significant strategic asset, the narrow passage ships one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in peacetime.

Tehran has effectively closed the strait since the war began on February 28, sending global oil and gas prices soaring and energy markets into turmoil. Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to target shipping, seize vessels, or conduct military exercises, demonstrating its ability to close or restrict the strait.

The result is soaring energy prices globally, forcing many countries to implement severe austerity measures to soften the blow.

Last week in the US, the average price of a gallon (3.8 litres) of gasoline (petrol) rose to $4.30, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), up from less than $3 before the war.

Surging energy costs have driven up inflation and deepened economic uncertainty in the US, compounding Trump’s political troubles amid overwhelming disapproval for the war amongst Americans.

Even if the US does begin escorting ships through safely – the threat from mines or Iranian strikes may be enough to prevent tankers from attempting to sail, experts say. Insurance companies are also unlikely to underwrite voyages.

Regional allies

Iran’s network of allied groups across the Middle East is another asset that Tehran relies on heavily. These include armed groups in Iraq and Syria, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen

Through these groups, Iran has exerted pressure indirectly, targeting US interests and allies without engaging in direct confrontation.

One critical threat Iran has previously made is for the Houthis to disrupt shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb, another vital maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

The Houthis, an Iran-aligned group in Yemen, have previously targeted shipping in this area, most notably during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, further raising concerns about the security of global trade routes.

Roughly 4.2 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum liquids flowed through the strait in 2014, accounting for about five percent of global supply.

Cheap drones and cluster bombs

While nowhere near the military capabilities of the US, Iran’s investment in missile and drone programmes has proven to be an effective means of deterrence. That is particularly through its ability to threaten regional US bases and impose significant costs on regional countries hosting American assets involved in military operations against Tehran.

While the US undoubtedly has a more sophisticated and powerful arsenal at its disposal, the interceptors it uses to combat Iranian drones cost around $4 million each, while Iran’s Shahed drones can be mass-produced at $20-50,000 each.

Furthermore, Iran’s ballistic missiles have proved capable of breaching Israel’s much-lauded “Iron Dome” defence system on several occasions. Iran has also dropped cluster bombs, which divide before they can be intercepted, making them much harder to stop.

So does the US really hold the most cards?

Michael Clarke, visiting professor at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, said Trump’s overwhelming conventional military strength has failed to translate into strategic leverage on the ground.

“President Trump thinks he is a great poker player,” Clarke told Al Jazeera. “He thought America’s sheer destructive potential put all the ‘cards’ in his hand” when starting the war on Iran.

But Iranian forces have consistently disrupted US expectations through asymmetric tactics, he said.

“At every turn, the Iranians have come up with asymmetric tactics – vicious, reckless tactics – that have negated everything the Americans have tried to do,” Clarke noted, describing a pattern in which traditional US military superiority has been blunted by unconventional responses.

Despite significant American forces and assets in the region – including “no fewer than three US Carrier Strike Groups, two Marine Expeditionary Units, hundreds of combat aircraft and thousands of troops”, Clarke argued that Washington has struggled to find an effective use for its multi-billion-dollar resources at its disposal.

Moreover, he said, domestic pressure on Trump is growing. Trump “can’t find a way to use them [US forces] that will make any real difference to the current stalemate in the limited time he has before his own MAGA base concludes he has lost the game”.

Clarke also highlighted the willingness of Iran’s IRGC to escalate tensions. “Whatever this war might do to Iranian society, the IRGC is prepared to gamble with its own existence in the fight,” he added.

Iranian state media says two missiles have struck a US navy destroyer to prevent it entering the Strait of Hormuz after the warship ignored warnings to halt. The attack comes after US President Donald Trump announced a naval mission to ‘guide’ stranded ships through the strait.

The latest escalation between Hezbollah and Israel began in early March following strikes linked to a wider regional conflict involving Iran and the United States. Hezbollah entered the conflict shortly after, positioning itself as part of a broader regional confrontation.

Since then, the group has faced significant battlefield losses, territorial setbacks in southern Lebanon, and growing domestic criticism. Israeli forces have established a buffer zone inside Lebanese territory, while large numbers of civilians have been displaced, particularly from Shiite communities that form Hezbollah’s core support base.

The conflict follows an earlier war that severely weakened Hezbollah, including the killing of its long time leader Hassan Nasrallah. Despite rearming and adapting its tactics, the group now faces mounting pressure on both military and political fronts.

Hezbollah’s Strategic Gamble
Hezbollah officials suggest the decision to re enter conflict was calculated. By aligning more closely with Tehran during a wider regional war, the group aims to ensure Lebanon becomes part of any future negotiations between Iran and the United States.

The expectation is that Iranian leverage could secure a stronger and more lasting ceasefire than previous agreements. However, this strategy carries high risks, especially as Washington has indicated that any deal with Iran may not include Lebanon.

Rising Human and Material Costs
The war has inflicted heavy casualties. Lebanese authorities report thousands killed since March, though the exact number of Hezbollah fighters remains disputed. Reports from within the group suggest losses could be substantial, with some fighters’ bodies still unrecovered in frontline towns.

Entire communities in southern Lebanon have been devastated, with villages destroyed and new graves appearing rapidly after ceasefire periods. Displacement has also intensified sectarian tensions, as affected populations seek refuge in other regions where resentment toward Hezbollah is growing.

Domestic Political Fallout
Inside Lebanon, opposition to Hezbollah’s armed status has hardened. Critics argue that its actions continue to expose the country to repeated wars. In a significant shift, the Lebanese government has engaged in direct talks with Israel, a move Hezbollah strongly opposes.

The government has also taken steps to limit Hezbollah’s military role, including banning its armed activities earlier this year. However, enforcing such measures remains difficult given the group’s entrenched influence and the risk of internal conflict.

Continuing Clashes Despite Ceasefire
Although a ceasefire announced in mid April reduced large scale fighting, hostilities have not fully stopped. Both sides continue to exchange strikes in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah has dismissed the truce as ineffective due to ongoing Israeli attacks.

Israel maintains that its operations are necessary to eliminate threats to its northern regions and has indicated that dismantling Hezbollah’s military capacity will be central to any long term agreement.

Analysis
Hezbollah’s current position reflects a complex mix of resilience and vulnerability. While it has demonstrated the ability to regroup and continue fighting, this alone does not translate into strategic success. The group is increasingly constrained by battlefield losses, internal Lebanese opposition, and uncertainty over external support.

Its reliance on Iran introduces another layer of risk. If a broader agreement between Tehran and Washington excludes Lebanon, Hezbollah may find itself bearing the costs of a war without securing meaningful political gains.

At the same time, Israel appears determined to reshape the security landscape in southern Lebanon, potentially prolonging the conflict. Without a comprehensive regional settlement, the most likely outcome is a prolonged stalemate marked by intermittent violence and continued suffering on both sides.

With information from Reuters.

US President Donald Trump has announced ‘Project Freedom’, a naval mission to escort stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, warning any interference will be met “forcefully”. The move comes amid a fragile US-Iran truce, with Tehran warning it would treat US intervention as a breach.

The 60-day clock for President Trump to seek congressional approval for further military actions against Iran was stopped by the April 7 ceasefire, a senior White House official claimed to The War Zone Friday morning. As we previously noted, the president faced a deadline today under the War Powers Resolution of 1973 to obtain permission from Congress to continue fighting.

The White House decision comes as the now-paused war is at a stalemate, with both sides believing they can outlast the other. Meanwhile, Trump is considering options for a new round of strikes while Iranians say they have presented new plans for working toward a peace deal.

“For War Powers Resolution purposes, the hostilities that began on Saturday, February 28 have terminated,” the official told us, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter. “Both parties agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, April 7 that has since been extended. There has been no exchange of fire between U.S. Armed Forces and Iran since Tuesday, April 7.”

The administration’s statement today follows War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Congressional testimony yesterday that “the 60-day clock pauses or stops in a ceasefire.”

Under the War Powers Resolution, the use of armed forces should be terminated within 60 days unless Congress has declared war or voted to approve a 30-day extension. Since Trump formally notified Congress about the Iran war on March 2, that deadline fell today. Even though several other presidents have simply ignored the War Powers Resolution, the Trump administration is now arguing that the measure doesn’t really apply to their operation just yet.

It remains unclear how or if Congress will react. It adjourned yesterday for a week-long recess. On Thursday, the Senate rejected the latest of many resolutions intended to halt the war, The Washington Post noted. 

Republican lawmakers appear to be deferring to Trump on the issue of the War Powers Resolution. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told The Associated Press on Thursday that he doesn’t plan on a vote to authorize force in Iran or otherwise weigh in.

“I’m listening carefully to what the members of our conference are saying, and at this point I don’t see that,” Thune said.

Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota said he’d vote for an authorization of war if Trump asked for it. But he questioned if the War Powers Act, passed during the Vietnam War era as a way for Congress to claw back its power, is even constitutional.

“Our founders created a really strong executive, like it or not like it,” Cramer said.

Iran protests as Trump announces ‘Project Freedom’ to escort stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will never return to the status quo that existed before the US and Israel launched their war. A draft Iranian law would permanently ban Israeli vessels and deny transit to nations deemed ‘hostile’ by their alliance with the US.

May 3 (UPI) — Oil exports from the United States have increased by more than 30% the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran started and the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded in response.

The Port of Corpus Christie has overtaken the ports in Saudi Arabia and Iraq in the last few weeks as the two Persian Gulf ports have been cut off from the rest of the world since the Strait has been blockaded.

Over the past two months, the United States has sold more than 250 million barrels of oil to foreign buyers as exports have increased by 30%, from 3.9 million barrels per day in February to 5.2 million barrels per day in April, Bloomberg and CNBC reported.

Experts have warned, however, that domestic oil inventories are depleting stockpiles and there is a question of how long the country will be able to continue replacing oil on the market that is stuck in the Strait.

Although selling oil is good for business, oil producers are struggling to keep up with the demand and it is possible that selling so much could have an add-on effect of pushing gas prices for American consumers even higher than they have gone since the war started.

“Ships are coming to take our oil, but once significant volumes of are leaving the United States, it can be expected that balances will tighten,” Clayton Seigle, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Bloomberg.

“We are digging ourselves a hole in terms of spending down inventories,” he said.

Roughly 20% of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s shutting of it has caused gas and fuel prices to skyrocket over the last two months, including massive effects on the airline industry, which has seen seen the price of jet fuel double since before the war.

Oil from the United States, Latin America and West Africa could for a short time be a substitute for Middle Eastern oil for countries in Asia, which has been hurt the most, but it is not ideal, Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, told CNBC.

“Asian markets are buying whatever they can get their hands on, so they’re taking a lot of light sweet [American] crude [oil],” Smith said, but their refineries are optimized for the heavier oil produced in the Middle East.

“It’a hole that can’t be plugged,” Smith told CNBC. “The answer has to be ensuring secure supply from the Middle East.”

[kicker]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s artistic skills have earned him the reputation of a public relations genius acknowledged by both friends and foes. United States President Donald Trump, who has openly attacked him in public, famously called the Ukrainian leader “the greatest salesman on Earth”. A much more sympathetic voice, New York Times columnist David French, has recently portrayed Zelenskyy as “the new leader of free world”.

But Zelenskyy’s PR genius can do very little when it comes to changing the dynamics of the battlefield in the Russia-Ukraine war. In recent weeks, his administration and allies have tried hard to create the impression that the war might be approaching a turning point. But realities on the ground tell a different story.

For example, there were official claims that in February, Ukraine made more territorial gains than Russia did. Some pro-Ukrainian war monitoring platforms have supported these claims while others have not. It is important to note  these calculations can be tricky given that along the frontline there is an extensive grey zone in which control is unclear. The advances themselves are measured in 150-200 square kilometres per month. In other words, methodology can be manipulated in order to produce the desired conclusion: that Ukraine is gaining ground.

In reality, there is nothing at all that suggests a significant change in the battlefield dynamics that have been in place for at least two years now.

More importantly, Russian troops are currently besieging a number of industrial cities in the north of the Donetsk region. Their advances all along the northern border, in particular, are extending the active front line by hundreds of kilometres, which is making Ukraine’s personnel shortages even more acute.

Four years into the war, the Ukrainian army has had to resort to brutal campaigns to enforce mandatory conscription, pulling young men off the streets of towns and villages. Meanwhile, Russia is still able to lure volunteers by offering lavish compensation.

Ukrainian officials have also claimed that Russia is losing more troops than it is able to recruit based on dubious casualty data. Zelenskyy, in particular, has stated the Russians suffered the highest number of monthly casualties in March this year – 35,000. But his statement contradicted his own Ministry of Defence, which claimed that the highest Russian monthly losses crossed 48,000 in January 2025, with an average monthly rate of roughly 35,000 throughout 2025.

Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, former military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, also contradicted this narrative that Russia is having major difficulty with deploying personnel. He acknowledged in a recent interview that the collapse of the Russian mobilisation effort was not forthcoming.

It should be noted that Ukraine is waging a successful drone campaign to damage Russian oil facilities. But it is doubtful that it could change anything beyond providing dramatic footage of oil tanks on fire for TV networks to broadcast.

In April, Russian oil revenues surged to $9bn, thanks to the US-Israel war on Iran. The windfall Russia got in a month is equivalent to 10 percent of the loan Ukraine is to receive from the European Union over the next two years to help fund its war effort.

It cannot be denied that Russia has sustained major economic losses due to the war, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged as much. But the Russian economy displays much the same downturn as other European economies, also affected by wars in Ukraine and Iran.

Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (an indicator reflecting living standards) currently exceeds that of less affluent EU countries, such as Romania and Greece, according to the IMF charts. The same indicator for Ukraine is on par with Mongolia and Egypt, while the country’s critical infrastructure lies in ruins and millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, most of them for good.

With Ukraine’s prospects bleaker than ever, pro-Ukrainian audiences jump on every news from Russia, which they hope may signify “cracks in the regime”. Last month, an Instagram video by Russian influencer Victoria Bonya made Western headlines for its daring criticism of government policies. There may be frustration in Russia, but the regime is far from approaching a downfall.

This narrative, however, serves to distract Ukrainian and EU citizens from the painful truth that the war is heading towards a deadlock at best and Ukraine’s collapse at worst. Zelenskyy may have received a lifeline with the $90bn euro loan, but his and his allies’ lack of vision and winning strategy is staggering.

The reality has already begun to kick in. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently suggested that Ukraine would have to concede some of its territory to Russia to end the war but get a faster track to EU membership in exchange. The EU’s defence chief, Andrius Kubilius, has gone further by claiming that NATO membership for Ukraine was out of the question and EU membership was going to be a “complicated process”. Instead, he proposed a military union of Ukraine and other European countries – an idea that Moscow will reject, interpreting it as NATO through the back door.

What these contradictory statements manifest is that the main bargain over the contours of peace is currently going not so much between Zelenskyy and Putin, but between Zelenskyy and his Western, primarily European, allies.

As Budanov recently claimed, the positions of Kyiv and Moscow can be moved closer to what is realistically attainable in peace talks. But Zelenskyy needs to show at least some kind of gain for Ukraine when a very unpalatable version of a peace treaty is finally signed. Ideally, that gain would be EU membership or real security guarantees, but as Merz and Kubilius’s statements suggest, the chances of attaining either are slim.

The frustration among Ukrainians is already palpable. The head of the Ukrainian parliament’s fiscal committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, said European officials should stop seeing Ukrainians as “a tool for solving someone’s geopolitical tasks” or as a “human shield”. They have no right to define Ukraine’s destiny, he insisted.

But Zelenskyy, who is dogged by a large-scale investigation into corruption involving his immediate entourage, seems to hold no cards to play against Russia or his Western allies. The status quo in which he retains the position of a war leader serves him well, but it is increasingly becoming untenable.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.