March 3 (Asia Today) — The escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran may not end quickly, and South Korea must prepare for the possibility of a prolonged crisis.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has launched retaliatory strikes following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Tehran has moved to block the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global seaborne crude oil shipments, and has fired missiles toward Gulf neighbors including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.
Although U.S. and Israeli forces reportedly killed Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei and senior military commanders in a surprise attack, it remains unclear whether the conflict will conclude swiftly as President Donald Trump has suggested.
Trump has framed the strikes as an effort to achieve regime change, urging the Iranian people to rise up against the country’s theocratic leadership. However, the situation differs markedly from past U.S. interventions. Achieving regime change solely through airstrikes on military and strategic targets is unlikely.
Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, has argued that history shows regime change is rarely accomplished without occupation. He also warned that with Khamenei dead, the most hardline elements within the current system could consolidate power.
David Ignatius of The Washington Post likewise cautioned that a U.S. attack on Iran would not be a “one and done” operation but could become a drawn-out conflict. He wrote that the president has a responsibility to explain the stakes and unpredictable risks to the American public.
Global financial markets have already reacted. Japan’s Nikkei index fell as much as 2.7% on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures briefly surged 13% to more than $75 per barrel. The Economist warned that oil prices could remain elevated even after the initial spike.
The magazine assessed that hardliners gaining influence in Tehran is more likely than a smooth regime transition. It cautioned that if Iranian forces target oil infrastructure in Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Kuwait, defending those facilities would prove difficult.
South Korea must assume the conflict could drag on. The economic shock would affect both financial markets and the real economy. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, then-President Joe Biden released 4.4 million barrels per day from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve, yet oil prices remained volatile. At the time, U.S. reserves stood at 570 million barrels; they now total about 415 million barrels.
The government should prepare for currency volatility and stock market declines. Surging oil prices and shipping costs, along with renewed supply chain disruptions, would pose significant medium- to long-term risks to production, investment and consumption in South Korea’s trade-dependent economy.
This crisis should not be viewed as a short-term event. Policymakers must respond with the understanding that the conflict could persist and plan accordingly.
— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI
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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260302010000297