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Turkiye’s Roketsan eyes top 10 exporter rank amid Middle East conflict | Business and Economy News

Modern warfare has dramatically changed as we have seen from the Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts involving Gaza, India and Pakistan, and the recent US-Israeli strikes on Iran. At the centre of this shift is a surging global reliance on drone and missile technology as well as advanced air defence systems.

Turkiye, one of the largest military powers in the Middle East, is increasingly positioning itself as a major supplier in the global defence sector. Central to this effort is Roketsan, a company founded in 1988 to supply the Turkish Armed Forces, which has since evolved into the country’s primary manufacturer of missile and rocket systems.

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Currently exporting to approximately 50 countries, the firm is one of the fastest-growing defence companies globally.

So how did Roketsan secure a large share of the global arms trade?

Bypassing Western embargoes

Turkiye’s defence expansion was largely accelerated by restrictions placed upon it. Western embargoes aimed at halting its military advancement meant Ankara could not acquire the necessary technical systems or components.

In 2020, the United States imposed Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) restrictions on Turkiye – a key member of the transatlantic military alliance NATO. These sanctions targeted Turkiye’s military procurement agency, its chief Ismail Demir, and three other senior officials. Washington also ejected Ankara from the F-35 stealth jet programme in July 2019.

The measures came after Ankara purchased Russia’s S-400 missile defence system, which was seen as a potential threat to NATO security. The European Union also prepared limited sanctions and discussed restricting arms exports following energy exploration disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean.

To circumvent this, the country built an integrated, domestic defence ecosystem. Today, Turkiye relies on a vast supply chain of nearly 4,000 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) scattered across the country. As a result, the Turkish defence industry now operates with a local production rate exceeding 90 percent.

Türkiye's defense industry now operates with a local production rate exceeding 90 percent, bypassing long-standing Western embargoes. [Al Jazeera]
Türkiye’s defence industry now operates with a local production rate exceeding 90 percent, bypassing long-standing Western embargoes [Al Jazeera]

This shift has yielded significant financial returns for Ankara. In 2025, Turkiye’s defence industry reported $10bn in exports. Roketsan’s General Manager Murat Ikinci told Al Jazeera that the company currently ranks 71st among global defence firms, with ambitions to break into the top 50, then the top 20, and ultimately the top 10.

To support this expansion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inaugurated several large-scale facilities last week, including:

  • Europe’s largest warhead facility.
  • new research and development (R&D) centre housing 1,000 engineers.
  • the “Kirikkale” facility dedicated to rocket fuel technology.
  • new infrastructure for the mass production of ballistic and cruise missiles.

These projects represent a $1bn investment, with the company planning to inject an additional $2bn to expand mass production capabilities.

The ‘Tayfun’ and modern warfare

Roketsan’s R&D strategy – which employs 3,200 engineers and makes the company the third-largest R&D institution in Turkiye – is heavily influenced by data gathered from ongoing global conflicts.

According to Ikinci, the war in Ukraine highlighted the impact of cheap, first-person view (FPV) and kamikaze drones supported by artificial intelligence. In response, Roketsan developed air defence systems like “ALKA” and “BURC,” alongside the “CIRIT” laser-guided missile.

The regional landscape was further complicated during the US-Israel war on Iran, as cheap Iranian-designed Shahed drones – recently upgraded by Russia with “Kometa-B” anti-jamming modules – overwhelmed defences and even struck a British base in Cyprus in March 2026. During the same month, NATO air defences were forced to intercept three Iranian ballistic missiles that entered Turkish airspace.

Meanwhile, the recent conflict between Israel and Iran showcased the use of complex attacks combining ballistic missiles with “swarms” of kamikaze drones designed to overwhelm air defences. This environment makes hypersonic technology a critical asset.

This brings the Tayfun (Typhoon) project into focus. Tayfun is a developing family of long-range ballistic missiles. Its most advanced iteration, the Tayfun Block 4, is a hypersonic missile engineered to penetrate advanced air defence systems by travelling at extreme speeds.

When Al Jazeera asked for specific details regarding the Tayfun’s exact operational range, Ikinci was elusive. “We avoid mentioning its range; we just say its range is sufficient,” he noted.

Similarly, historical Western sanctions have pushed Turkiye to form new cooperation initiatives, effectively accelerating an “Eastern shift” away from Western defence dependence. Turkish drones are now being used by a growing number of countries, including by Pakistan during its war against India last May.

Based on these threat assessments, Roketsan has prioritised five key areas of production:

  1. long-range ballistic and cruise missiles.
  2. air defence systems, including the “Steel Dome”, Hisar-A, Hisar-O, and Siper.
  3. submarine-launched cruise missiles, utilising the AKYA system to leverage Turkiye’s large submarine fleet.
  4. smart micro-munitions designed specifically for armed drones.
  5. long-range air-to-air missiles, a need highlighted by the brief India-Pakistan skirmish.

A strategic export model

Unlike traditional arms procurement, Turkiye is marketing its defence industry to international buyers as a strategic partnership.

“Our offer to our partners… is as follows: Let’s produce together, let’s develop technology together,” Ikinci stated.

İkinci emphasizes that Roketsan's international strategy is based on "partnership models" rather than simple sales. [Al Jazeera]
Rokestan’s General Manager Murat İkinci, right, emphasises that Roketsan’s international strategy is based on ‘partnership models’ rather than simple sales [Al Jazeera]

 

By establishing joint facilities and R&D centres in allied nations across the Middle East, the Far East, and Europe, Turkiye is attempting to secure long-term geopolitical alliances rather than purely transactional sales. Ikinci highlighted Qatar as a prime example of this model, describing it as a benchmark for technological, military, and security cooperation in the region.

Filling the global stockpile gap

This rapid expansion comes at a critical time for the global arms trade. Ongoing wars have severely depleted the stockpiles of advanced weapon systems worldwide.

During the recent US-Israel war on Iran, Washington relied heavily on multimillion-dollar Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems to intercept cheap Iranian drones targeting US assets across Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. With growing concerns that US interceptor supplies could run low, Gulf states – which have collectively detected over 1,000 drones in their airspace – are actively seeking alternative defence technologies, creating a highly lucrative opening for Turkiye’s missile industry.

Defence analyses indicate that even military superpowers like the US will require significant time to replenish their current air defence inventories due to the complexity and massive infrastructure required to build them.

Turkish defence officials view this shortage as a strategic opening. Having localised its supply chain, Turkiye claims it can manufacture and export these highly sought-after complex systems independently.

As global demand for air defence and ballistic technologies rises, Roketsan is aggressively reinvesting its revenues into production infrastructure to expand its footprint in the international arms market.

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Navy MQ-4C Triton Surveillance Drone Crash In The Middle East Finally Confirmed

The U.S. Navy has finally confirmed that an MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone crashed back on April 9. The circumstances that led to the loss of the uncrewed aircraft remain unknown, but the incident has now been described as a mishap. The uncrewed aircraft had vanished unexpectedly from online flight tracking sites while flying over the Persian Gulf, but where exactly where it went down is unclear.

You can read more about what was already known about the fate of the MQ-4C in our initial reporting here.

Naval Safety Command’s latest publicly available mishap summary report, which appears to have been published today, includes the following brief entry:

“9 Apr 2026 (Location Withheld – OPSEC [Operational Security]) MQ-4C crashed, no injury to personnel.”

Not surprisingly, this is categorized as a Class A mishap, which is defined as one that causes more than $2 million in damages, results in one or more individuals dying or being permanently disabled, or any combination of the above. Navy budget documents last pegged the unit price of an MQ-4C at just over $238 million. As of 2025, the Navy had 20 of these drones in service in total, with plans to acquire seven more.

A list of recent Class A mishaps included in the Naval Safety Command’s latest publicly available mishap summary report. USN

TWZ reached out to the Navy and CENTCOM for comment. The Navy directed us to contact CENTCOM, and the command declined to comment.

The MQ-4C was widely assumed to have gone down last week. Right before the flow of online tracking data stopped, a huge and sudden loss of altitude, from a typical cruising altitude of around 50,000 feet down to below 10,000 feet, was recorded. At the time, the drone looked to be heading back to its base at Naval Air Station Sigonella in Italy after completing a surveillance mission over the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The drone’s transponder had also been broadcasting (or “squawking”) the code 7700, which is a general declaration of an in-flight emergency, at the time. However, as TWZ noted at the time, the code, by itself, does not provide details about the nature or severity of the emergency. There were also reports that the Triton had initially squawked 7400, a different code used to declare the drone had lost its connection with controllers on the ground.

On its way back to base, the US Navy MQ-4C Triton reconnaissance drone that had been patrolling the Strait of Hormuz took a turn towards Iran, squawked code 7700 (general emergency), and started descending, falling off ADS-B as it dropped under 10k feet. pic.twitter.com/1Ki8OsEk9k

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 9, 2026

As noted, where exactly the drone went down is not clear. It was last tracked flying in international airspace over the Persian Gulf in the direction of Iran, but there is no evidence it went down in that country.

It is also unknown what steps may have been taken, or still be underway, to recover the downed MQ-4C. Each one of the drones carries a powerful active electronically scanned array (AESA) multi-mode radar, electro-optical and infrared video cameras in a turret under the nose, and electronic support measures systems for collecting electronic intelligence passively. The Navy, in cooperation with prime contractor Northrop Grumman, has also been working to upgrade the signals intelligence suites on these drones in recent years.

A stock picture of an MQ-4C. USN

If an adversary could recover any of these systems largely intact, it could represent a significant intelligence loss. Though there are no indications whatsoever that the MQ-4C went down due to hostile fire, recovery of the wreckage could still be of benefit for propaganda purposes, especially for Iran in the context of the latest conflict.

Iran did shoot down a Navy RQ-4 Broad Area Maritime Surveillance-Demonstrator (BAMS-D) drone while it was flying over the Gulf of Oman in 2019, and promptly put what remained of the uncrewed aircraft on display. The BAMS-D was a precursor to the MQ-4C. The Triton is derived from the core RQ-4 Global Hawk design, but is optimized for long-duration overwater missions.

As an aside, another MQ-4C was tracked flying a routine mission over the Persian Gulf today. This was the first such sortie visible online since April 9, which could reflect a pause in operations following the crash. Last week, TWZ pointed out that Tritons were likely to play an important role in surveilling the Persian Gulf, as well as the Strait of Hormuz, amid a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The capabilities the drones offer are likely to be even more important now as the U.S. military works to enforce a blockade of Iranian ports and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to regular maritime traffic to and from other countries in the region.

We will provide additional details about the crash of MQ-4C if and when they become available.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Joseph has been a member of The War Zone team since early 2017. Prior to that, he was an Associate Editor at War Is Boring, and his byline has appeared in other publications, including Small Arms Review, Small Arms Defense Journal, Reuters, We Are the Mighty, and Task & Purpose.




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Seoul shares rise nearly 3 pct, approaching 6,000 level on eased Middle East tensions

South Korean stocks rose nearly 3 percent Tuesday to inch toward the 6,000-point mark on hopes for renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The local currency sharply gained against the U.S. dollar.

The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) added 159.13 points, or 2.74 percent, to close at 5,967.75, after reaching as high as 6,026,52.

The index swerved over and under the 6,000-point mark, marking the first such move since March 3, when the index traded at 6,180.45, the first trading day after the United States and Israel carried out air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.

Trading volume was moderate at 881.9 billion shares worth 26.7 trillion won (US$18 billion), with gainers beating losers 669 to 197.

Foreigners and institutions scooped up a net 830 billion won and 1.25 trillion won, respectively, while individuals sold a net 2.4 trillion won.

The U.S. military began a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after a breakdown of weekend talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, between Washington and Tehran.

However, Donald Trump said Iran wants to reach a deal with the U.S., raising hopes that the two sides could return to negotiations.

“Investors anticipate a second round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran after Trump’s comments,” said Kang Jin-hyuk, an analyst at Kyobo Securities. “The Wall Street Journal also reported that the two sides have exchanged detailed terms on uranium enrichment, raising further hopes for a deal.”

Tech and financial shares led the rally.

Tech giant Samsung Electronics rose 2.74 percent to 206,500 won and SK hynix jumped 6.06 percent to 1.1 million won ahead of its first-quarter earnings report next week.

Major banking group Hana Financial Group increased 0.67 percent to 120,800 won and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance added 3.82 percent to 489,500 won.

Top carmaker Hyundai Motor advanced 2.72 percent to 491,500 won and major gamemaker NC climbed 3.97 percent to 248,500 won.

Leading mobile carrier SK Telecom gained 3.24 percent to 95,500 won and retail giant Shinsegae rose 1.02 percent to 346,500 won.

However, defense shares went south as industry leader Hanwha Aerospace fell 0.46 percent to 1.52 million won and LIG D&A, formerly LIG Nex1, declined 0.53 percent to 934,000 won.

The local currency was quoted at 1,481.2 won against the greenback as of 3:30 p.m., up 8.1 won from the previous session.

Bond prices, which move inversely to yields, closed higher. The yield on three-year Treasurys fell 4.3 basis points to 3.339 percent, and the return on the benchmark five-year government bonds dropped 3.5 basis points to 3.519 percent.

Copyright (c) Yonhap News Agency prohibits its content from being redistributed or reprinted without consent, and forbids the content from being learned and used by artificial intelligence systems.

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Middle East turns to Korean air defense amid missile threats

South Korea’s medium range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems named ‘Cheongung’ are seen during the media day for the 69th anniversary of the Armed Forces Day at the 2nd Fleet Parade Ground in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. File. Photo by JEON HEON-KYUN / EPA

April 13 (Asia Today) — Middle Eastern nations are accelerating efforts to secure missile defense systems, with growing demand for South Korean interceptors as regional threats intensify.

Countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are seeking faster deliveries of South Korea’s Cheongung-II system, also known as M-SAM, following recent large-scale missile attacks linked to Iran.

Industry officials said Gulf states have made urgent inquiries to LIG Nex1 and affiliates of Hanwha Group about expediting delivery schedules.

The Cheongung-II system is produced by LIG Nex1 as the prime contractor, with Hanwha Aerospace manufacturing launchers and Hanwha Systems providing radar components.

A report by The Wall Street Journal said Gulf countries are increasingly looking beyond U.S. suppliers and viewing South Korea as a key alternative source of missile defense systems.

The United Arab Emirates signed a contract worth about $3.5 billion in 2022 for multiple Cheongung-II batteries, while Saudi Arabia reached a $3.2 billion deal in 2024, according to the report.

At the same time, Israel is ramping up production of its Arrow missile defense system as interceptor stockpiles are strained by repeated attacks.

According to Israel’s Defense Ministry, Israel Aerospace Industries has begun accelerating production to several times normal levels after facing sustained missile and drone attacks from Iran and Houthi forces in Yemen.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said strengthening missile defense capabilities is critical to national security, as concerns grow over potential shortages of interceptor missiles.

Analysts warn the situation highlights a broader challenge for countries facing missile threats, including South Korea.

Experts say a large-scale barrage using low-cost missiles or artillery could quickly deplete high-cost interceptors, underscoring the need for larger stockpiles and more cost-effective defense systems.

A senior South Korean defense industry official said the country should expand reserves of key systems such as Cheongung-II and long-range surface-to-air missiles, while maintaining a balance between exports and domestic needs.

There are also growing calls to accelerate development of next-generation systems, including laser-based air defense technologies designed to reduce interception costs.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260413010003773

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Flurry Of Navy Minesweepers Appear To Be Heading Toward The Middle East

A pair of Avenger class mine-hunters homeported in Japan have been tracked sailing westward out of the Pacific Ocean in recent days. This comes as President Trump and other officials say an operation is taking shape to clear Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz, which will be essential to fully reopening that critical waterway. The United States has also now announced a blockade of all of Iran’s ports.

Until last year, the Navy had four Avenger class ships forward-deployed in the Middle East for exactly this mission. A trio of Independence class Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) configured for minesweeping duties subsequently took their place. However, those ships were redeployed from Bahrain ahead of the latest conflict with Iran, and two of them then emerged unexpectedly in Southeast Asia last month. While getting them out of the Persian Gulf was a prudent security measure, it remains unclear why the decision was made to send them literally to the other side of the globe amid the obvious threat of Iran mining the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz. One of them, the USS Tulsa, was also recently spotted sailing west after weeks in port in Singapore.

The Avenger class USS Chief and USS Pioneer were spotted arriving in Singapore on April 8, and they were seen leaving heading west on April 10. This represents half of the Avenger class ships still in Navy inventory, all of which are forward-deployed in Sasebo, Japan.

USS Chief (MCM-14) and USS Pioneer (MCM-9) Avenger-class mine countermeasures ships leaving Singapore – April 10, 2026 SRC: INST- yplanesonly pic.twitter.com/49unSU9nuf

— WarshipCam (@WarshipCam) April 10, 2026

USS Chief (MCM-14) and USS Pioneer (MCM-9) Avenger-class mine countermeasures ships coming into Singapore – April 8, 2026 SRC: INST- yplanesonly pic.twitter.com/TTxElngGLu

— WarshipCam (@WarshipCam) April 9, 2026

Online ship tracking site MarineTraffic subsequently showed both Avenger class ships heading northwest through the Strait of Malacca. There are unconfirmed reports that Chief and Pioneer arrived at Ao Makham port in Phuket, Thailand, earlier today. Their final destination is unknown, but USNI News had reported over the weekend that they had been “dispatched toward U.S. Central Command.”

A stock picture of USS Pioneer, in front, and USS Chief, behind, sailing together in 2020. USN

USS Tulsa was also tracked sailing northwest in the Strait of Malacca on April 3, which we will come back to in a moment.

USN TRACKING: Pushing MCM Capabilities West
Checking in on the US Navy’s LCS footprint using recent imagery and AIS data.

🇸🇬Sembawang: Only the USS Santa Barbara (LCS-32) remains pierside in Singapore.
🇲🇾Reviewing historical AIS, her sister ship, USS Tulsa (LCS-16), went dark on… pic.twitter.com/hiIROvC0QO

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) April 11, 2026

“U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces began setting conditions for clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz,” the command had said in a press release on April 11. The Arleigh Burke class destroyers “USS Frank E. Peterson (DDG 121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112) transited the Strait of Hormuz and operated in the Arabian Gulf as part of a broader mission to ensure the strait is fully clear of sea mines previously laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.”

US Central Command (CENTCOM) released this picture after announcing that the USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy had sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on April 11. CENTCOM Sgt. 1st Class Michael Hunnisett

Questions have been raised about the exact purpose of sending USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy through the Strait, and whether either ship actually made a full transit. Michael Murphy was tracked online sailing on the Persian Gulf side, at least briefly. Neither of the destroyers are outfitted for mine clearance missions, though they do have powerful sonars that might be able to help spot mines.

If the move not being coordinated with Iran is true, it’d be the geopolitical equivalent of trying to sneak someone in/out the back of a hostage standoff when the hostage-taker is distracted talking to a negotiator.

Sounds very high risk, but I have my doubts: why ping AIS then? https://t.co/vr7WHyAKgD pic.twitter.com/SGUIFQuW7p

— Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) April 11, 2026

“Additional U.S. forces, including underwater drones, will join the clearance effort in the coming days,” CENTCOM’s release over the weekend added, but did not further elaborate.

“We’re also bringing in more traditional minesweepers” as part of efforts to clear the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump told Fox News yesterday. He also said several times this weekend that mine-clearing operations were already underway in some form.

U.S. President Donald J. Trump has told Fox News that the UK and a number of other nations are set to send minesweepers to aid in securing the Strait of Hormuz, following his announcement that the U.S. will blockade the strait and interdict all vessels that pay a toll to Iran for… pic.twitter.com/oizgfMqLse

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 12, 2026

U.S. President Donald J. Trump said earlier that the U.S. is now in the process of clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines, following reports that U.S. naval vessels transited the strait this morning. According to President Trump, during Operation Epic Fury, 28 Iranian mine laying… pic.twitter.com/fQGHDAmOES

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 11, 2026

CENTCOM declined to comment when we reached out today for more details about the planned force package for the mine clearance mission. TWZ has also reached out to the Navy’s main headquarters in the Pacific for more information about the movement of the Avenger class ships.

Before the latest conflict with Iran broke out in February, the Navy had three Independence class LCSs outfitted for mine countermeasures missions – Tulsa and Santa Barbara, along with the USS Canberra – forward-deployed in Bahrain. The arrival of those ships last year was tied to the long-planned decommissioning of four Avenger class vessels that had been homeported in that Middle Eastern country for decades beforehand. It is unclear how many LCSs the Navy otherwise has that are currently configured for minessweeping missions.

The Independence class Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) USS Canberra, in the foreground, sails together with the heavy lift ship M/V Seaway Hawk on January 20, 2026. The latter ship is seen here carrying four decomimssioned Avenger class mine-hunters back to the United States. USN

As noted, Tulsa and Santa Barbara subsequently emerged in Southeast Asia, first in Malaysia and then in Singapore, last month. USS Canberra‘s location remains uncertain, but it was reported to be sailing in the Indian Ocean as of March 19.

It should also be stated that the Independence class LCS is a much more modern ship than the Avenger class. When configured for the minesweeping mission, the LCSs also bring new standoff mine countermeasures capabilities, including Common Unmanned Surface Vehicle (CUSV) drone boats and helicopter-borne systems. Still, questions continue to be raised about whether the Independence class vessels are adequate replacements for the older, but purpose-built Avengers. You can read more about this here.

CUSV®




Airborne Laser Mine Detection System (ALMDS) Video




It is possible that the USS Chief and the USS Pioneer are in Southeast Asia now for exercises or other reasons. Japan-based Avenger class ships have traveled to Thailand, specifically, as well as other countries across the Pacific, to train with allied and partner forces in the past.

USS Pioneer is seen in the background during a controlled mine detonation as part of the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) exercise in Thailand in 2019. USN

That being said, the movements of Chief and Pioneer in the region, as well as Tusla‘s departure from Singapore, did come right around CENTCOM’s explicit statement that more U.S. forces were heading to the Middle East to help with mine-clearing efforts. Furthermore, as already mentioned, the quartet of Avenger class ships in Japan, as well as LCSs that have been in Singapore recently, represent the bulk of vessels specifically outfitted for minesweeping duties that the Navy has available anywhere globally. Any mine-clearing operation in and around the Strait of Hormuz will include other naval vessels, as well.

As an aside, the Navy’s Lewis. B. Puller class Expeditionary Sea Base (ESB) ship USS John L. Canley, which is homeported in the U.S. Pacific territory of Saipan, was also spotted heading west past Singapore on March 23. That ship was subsequently tracked sailing in the Indian Ocean, raising questions about whether it might be headed to the Middle East, as well. None of the Navy’s three other ESBs has been observed heading toward that region recently.

USNS John L Canley and USNS Alan Shepherd passing Singapore just now heading to the Middle East

John L Canley is at Expeditionary Transfer Dock, seemingly carrying an Osprey and 3 Seahawk helicopters on top and then the Alan Shepherd is a dry Cargo vessel

Photo by me pic.twitter.com/anLsxJJDT1

— Singapore Ship Spotting (@sgshipspotting) March 23, 2026

A crisis scenario in and around the Persian Gulf, especially one involving Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz or otherwise threatening that critical waterway, was central to the Navy’s decision to acquire the ESBs in the first place. From the start, a key mission for the sea base ships has been serving, in part, as launch platforms for MH-53E Sea Dragon mine-hunting helicopters. At the same time, the Navy MH-53E fleet has dwindled in recent years to a single squadron, and the type is set to be completely retired by the end of 2027. Canley was seen with an apparent load of V-22 Osprey tiltrotors and MH-60 Seahawk helicopters on its deck as it passed by Singapore last month.

The USNS (now USS) Lewis. B. Puller with four MH-53E Sea Dragon helicopters on its deck. USN

There has been talk in the past about ESBs acting as motherships for Avenger class mine-hunters. Canley be used to launch and recover uncrewed surface vessels (USV) and uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUV) as part of minesweeping and other operations, as well. In the context of the current blockade of Iranian ports, the ship could have a separate role as a valuable platform for staging visit, board, search, and seizure (VBSS) operations and otherwise supporting the current blockade of Iranian ports.

When it comes to the mission to clear Iranian naval mines, additional warships, as well as aircraft, will be needed just to provide critical force protection. This was already underscored by CENTCOM sending the two Arleigh Burke class destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. In February, before the war with Iran erupted, TWZ also called attention to the importance of force protection in these operations after A-10 Warthog ground attack aircraft conducted an exercise with the USS Santa Barbara in the Persian Gulf. A-10s have been prowling the Strait of Hormuz as part of operations against Iran.

An A-10 flies past the USS Canberra in the Persian Gulf during an exercise in 2026 before the war with Iran erupted. USN

How many naval mines Iran has actually laid, and of what types, is murky. In March, CBS News reported Iranian forces had seeded a number of Maham 3 and Maham 7 mines in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The Maham 3 is a so-called “influence mine,” designed to be triggered by the acoustic and/or magnetic signatures of a passing vessel, and that is moored in place. The Maham 7 is also an influence mine, but that sits on the seabed, and is therefore intended to be employed in shallower waters where it can still be set off by a ship sailing above. Naval analyst H. I. Sutton has more details on these and other Iranian naval mines here. Last Friday, The New York Times reported that Iran had lost track of the disposition of at least some of the mines it had laid, and that this was hampering efforts to reopen the Strait, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

Sweeping for naval mines is a slow-going and complex affair, in general, that carries significant risks even in benign environments. The dangers in case of the Strait of Hormuz are magnified now by the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and the potential for the full resumption of hostilities with the regime in Tehran. U.S. and Iranian officials met this weekend in Pakistan following the announcement of a ceasefire last week. However, those talks ended after a day without any substantive progress toward a diplomatic resolution of the current conflict.

In the meantime, despite extensive U.S. and Israeli strikes over the past six weeks, Iran is still understood to have a significant array of capabilities, including anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, kamikaze drones, and uncrewed explosive-laden boats, that it could also use to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a super weapons engagement zone. TWZ previously explored these threats in greater detail in the context of past discussions about U.S. warships escorting commercial ships in and out of the Persian Gulf.

More about the mission to clear Iranian naval mines, including whether Japan-based Avenger class ships will take part and if the LCSs will finally return from the Pacific Theater, should become clearer in the coming days.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Joseph has been a member of The War Zone team since early 2017. Prior to that, he was an Associate Editor at War Is Boring, and his byline has appeared in other publications, including Small Arms Review, Small Arms Defense Journal, Reuters, We Are the Mighty, and Task & Purpose.




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Netanyahu next to Middle East map: ‘We strangled them and have more to do’ | Benjamin Netanyahu

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Standing in front of a map of the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu describes how six countries ‘wanted to strangle us’ but instead ‘we strangled them… and we have more to do’. Ambassadors from Israel and Lebanon are set to hold talks in Washington DC on Tuesday, but they’ve issued conflicting statements on what will be discussed.

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BOK chief urges caution, cites Middle East risks over rates

Rhee Chang-yong, governor of the Bank of Korea, speaks during a press briefing in Seoul on April 10. Photo by Asia Today

April 10 (Asia Today) — Bank of Korea Gov. Rhee Chang-yong said Thursday that uncertainty in the Middle East is having a greater impact on South Korea’s economy than interest rate policy, calling for a cautious, wait-and-see approach.

Speaking after a monetary policy meeting, Rhee said policymakers should first assess how the Middle East situation and related negotiations unfold before making decisions on rates.

“There was little discussion about raising or lowering rates, and many members agreed to monitor the situation for now,” he said.

The central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.50%, marking a seventh consecutive freeze since July.

Markets had expected that rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict could push inflation higher and prompt a policy shift. Consumer prices rose 2.2% in March, up 0.2 percentage points from a month earlier, adding to upward pressure.

Rhee dismissed concerns about stagflation – a combination of slowing growth and rising prices – as unlikely if the current crisis is resolved soon.

“If the situation ends at this point, the possibility of stagflation is low,” he said, while warning that unpredictable developments could still lead to a worst-case scenario.

He highlighted potential damage to Iran’s energy infrastructure as a key variable, noting that prolonged disruptions could weigh on South Korea’s economy even after the crisis subsides.

The central bank also indicated that this year’s economic growth could fall below its February forecast of 2.0%, citing weaker sentiment and production disruptions since March despite earlier gains from exports and consumption.

Inflation, however, is expected to exceed the earlier projection of 2.2% due to higher global oil prices.

Rhee gave a generally positive assessment of the government’s supplementary budget, which relies on excess tax revenue rather than bond issuance, easing concerns about fiscal stability.

However, he expressed concern that about 5 trillion won (about $3.7 billion) of the budget is allocated to local education funding under existing rules, suggesting the need to review whether such allocations are appropriate during an economic slowdown.

On exchange rates, Rhee said the value of the Korean won should be assessed relative to the U.S. Dollar Index rather than focusing solely on the won-dollar rate, noting that short-term fluctuations can be driven by domestic supply and demand factors.

Thursday’s meeting was Rhee’s final rate-setting session before his term ends April 20.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260410010003215

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British Airways axes more flights to the Middle East as crisis continues

THE Iran crisis is continuing to affect travel with airlines having to stop flights to the Middle East.

British Airways is scheduled to start flying back to the likes of Dubai and Doha in July – but has announced it will drop one service completely.

BA is axing its route from Jeddah permanentlyCredit: Alamy
Flights are set to restart in Dubai on July 1, 2026Credit: Alamy

BA will drop its service from London Heathrow to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia permanently from April 24, 2026.

The airline had been operating a four flights a week service since November 2024.

But a shift in demand, due to the conflict in the Middle East, has led to the airline terminating the service.

However, British Airways is set to resume flying to the Middle East next month with flights to Riyadh restarting in mid-May.

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It is also scheduled to start flying to Dubai, Doha and Tel Aviv on July 1 at the earliest.

But these services will be reduced from what they were before the conflict began.

Flights to Dubai will go from three each day to one daily flight while services to Doha, Tel Aviv and Riyadh will drop from two flights to just one a day.

Flights to the city of Larnaca in Cyprus are scheduled to resume on May 22.

Meanwhile, services to Bahrain and the city of Amman in Jordan, are paused until October 25.

British Airways said: “Due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East, we have made further changes to our flying schedule to provide greater clarity for our customers.

“We’re keeping the situation under constant review and are directly in touch with affected customers to offer them a range of options.”

Due to its reduced flight schedule, BA has said it will use its freed up aircraft to head to other destinations like India and Kenya.

It will begin daily flights to Bengaluru in India and Nairobi in Africa during the summer season until late October.

It will operate a third daily service from London Heathrow to Delhi until May 31.

The airline will add its third daily flight from London Heathrow to Mumbai from May 15 to 31.

Here’s more on another major airline that has axed hundreds of flights until end of summer amid fuel cost crisis.

And one domestic airline has cancelled its London flights for rest of the season due to ongoing fuel crisis.

British Airways is changing its schedule to destinations in the Middle EastCredit: Alamy

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Malcolm in the Middle star has ‘never watched show’ for ‘uncomfortable’ reason

Malcolm in the Middle is officially back and the actor who played older brother Reese has revealed that he has ‘never watched the show’ despite being a leading figure in it

The actor who starred as Reese in Malcolm in the Middle has “never watched the show” back. Justin Berfield, now 40, has now returned to our screens for the reboot of the sitcom that ended two decades ago. He has lived a quiet life since then and recently revealed why he quit Hollywood.

But speaking on The Joe Vulpis Podcast, he confirmed that he had watched the four-episode revival, which was released on Disney+ today (April 10), but he still avoids the original episodes.

He said: “I watched it — and I never watched any of the Malcolm episodes.”

Host Joe, clearly surprised, pushed him further, and Justin continued: “I think I’ve, out of 151 episodes, I think I’ve just seen five… I just never watched them.

“I’m an actor… I cannot watch myself because I critique myself way too much.”

He was then informed that he was “great” as Reese but he responded: “I am like, I feel I didn’t hit that joke right, I feel like I messed that line up. I can’t watch myself.

“I’ll turn it on for my wife and kids and I’ll run away and leave the room. I’m like, ‘Let me know when it’s done.’”

He was then pressed on whether he will one day watch it back, given it might trigger some positive memories he had forgotten about.

Justin, who is now a stay-at-home dad who has worked as an onset producer and writer, said: “I don’t know… maybe. I just get uncomfortable watching myself. I know every actor is different and some people love watching themselves, I just can’t. I don’t know. I critique myself too much.”

The reboot sees Justin return as the older brother to Malcolm, played by Frankie Muniz.

He said it was interesting to see where all the characters ended up 20 years later — and he said Reese was still his “shortsighted but quick reacting” self.

Also returning is Malcom’s other older brother, Francis, portrayed by Christopher Masterson. And the siblings’ parents, Hal and Lois, played by Bryan Cranston and Jane Kaczmarek, are also starring in it.

The synopsis reveals: “After shielding himself and his daughter from his family for over a decade, Malcolm is dragged back into their orbit when Hal and Lois demand his presence at their 40th anniversary party.”

And as for what it was like being back on set after so long away from his former colleagues, Justin said: “It felt like a really, just a really long hiatus. When we were filming the show, you’d film for like eight months and then you’d take like two, three months off, and then kind of go back and do some things again and start seeing everyone, and that was like your year for seven years straight.

“And then we did this, it was obviously like 20 years since we’d seen each other for most of us. And you just kind of, it felt like time stopped, like we just got right back into it.”

Malcolm in the Middle: Life’s Still Unfair is streaming on Disney Plus from April 10

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UN: Israeli shell killed Indonesian peacekeepers in southern Lebanon – Middle East Monitor

The UNIFIL announced that an investigation has concluded that three Indonesian peacekeepers were killed by a shell fired from an Israeli tank.

According to UNIFIL, analysis of the impact site and recovered shrapnel confirmed that the projectile was a 120mm shell fired from an Israeli Merkava tank, launched from the east toward the town of Taybeh.

The mission noted that it had previously provided the Israeli army with the coordinates of all its positions and facilities on 6th March and again on 22nd March, as part of efforts to reduce risks to its personnel.

In a related incident, UNIFIL reported that the Israeli army detained one of its peacekeepers after intercepting a logistics convoy, before releasing him less than an hour later following urgent contacts by UN command.

The mission condemned the detention as a “flagrant violation of international law,” stressing that any obstruction of peacekeeping operations breaches UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which guarantees freedom of movement for UN forces in southern Lebanon.

Separately, UNIFIL confirmed that another peacekeeper was killed on 29th March when a shell struck a UN position near Adshit al-Qusayr, with another seriously wounded. At the time, the source of the shell was unknown, prompting the investigation.

The findings come amid ongoing Israeli aggression on Lebanon and heightened risks facing UN peacekeeping forces operating in the area.

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Doha Diamond League postponed until June amid Middle East conflict

The Diamond League’s season-opening event in Doha has been postponed until June amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The meeting, the first of 15 stops on the Diamond League circuit this season, was set to be held at the Qatar Sports Club on 8 May but will instead take place at the Khalifa International Stadium on 19 June “should conditions allow”.

It comes after conflict was sparked across the Middle East when the US and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran in February.

This year’s Diamond League series will now begin on 16 May in Keqiao, China.

The decision to also change the venue of the Doha meeting was taken because of Qatar’s scorching summer temperatures, which can exceed 40C in June.

The Khalifa International Stadium, which hosted the World Athletics Championships in 2019, is temperature regulated to allow for safe competition.

The new date of the Doha event will fall between the Oslo (10 June) and Paris (28 June) Diamond League meetings, making it the eighth leg of this year’s series.

Diamond League organisers said they would “continue to monitor developments in the Middle East in the coming weeks”.

“The series and meeting organisers remain committed to delivering the highest level of safe and secure competition for athletes, media and spectators,” they added in a statement on Wednesday.

Several high-profile sporting events have been affected by the crisis in the Middle East, including the cancellation of Formula 1 Grand Prix weekends in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in April.

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Gulf, Middle East nations react to Iran-US ceasefire announcement | US-Israel war on Iran News

Countries in the region welcome the temporary truce and urge negotiations for the war’s permanent end.

Iran and the United States have agreed to a two-week ceasefire and allow safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

The warring sides agreed to suspend attacks as the war entered its 40th day, with hopes now pinned on a peace deal through talks set to begin in Pakistan on Friday.

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The truce in the early hours of Wednesday came after US President Donald Trump said he would suspend attacks, subject to Tehran agreeing to fully reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global oil flows.

Iran’s foreign ministry said a safe passage through the vital waterway will be possible for a period of two weeks through coordination with the country’s armed forces.

Meanwhile, celebrations rang across Iran following the announcement and many world leaders welcomed the development.

The weeks-long fighting had embroiled nearly the entire Middle East. Iran launched retaliatory attacks by claiming to target US assets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Gulf states alleged the Iranian attacks targeted civilian infrastructure as well.

Lebanon was also drawn into the war on March 2 after Tehran-aligned Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel. Israel has backed the two-week ceasefire with Iran, but has said it does not include Lebanon, despite Pakistan first announcing that the truce does.

Against this backdrop, here is how the Gulf and other Middle Eastern nations are reacting to the ceasefire announcement:

Saudi Arabia

The kingdom’s foreign ministry said it “welcomes” the ceasefire announcement. It urged an end to attacks on countries in the region and said that the Strait of Hormuz should be opened.

Saudi Arabia also hopes the ceasefire will “lead to a comprehensive sustainable pacification”, the foreign ministry said in a statement.

United Arab Emirates

Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE President, said the “UAE triumphed in a war we sincerely sought to avoid”.

“We prevailed through an epic national defense that safeguarded sovereignty and dignity and protected our achievements in the face of treacherous aggression,” Gragash said in a post on X.

“Today, we move forward to manage a complex regional landscape with greater leverage, sharper insight, and a more solid capacity to influence and shape the future”, he added, hailing “the UAE’s renaissance model”.

Oman

Oman’s foreign ministry said in a statement published on X that it welcomes the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and the US and appreciates “the efforts of Pakistan and all parties calling for an end to the war”.

“We affirm the importance of intensifying efforts now to find solutions that can end the crisis from its roots and achieve a permanent cessation of the state of war and hostilities in the region,” the ministry said.

Iraq

Iraq’s foreign ministry said it “welcomes” the ceasefire but called for “serious and sustainable dialogue” between the US and Iran.

The ministry “calls for building upon this positive step by launching serious and sustainable dialogue tracks that address the root causes of the disputes and strengthen mutual trust,” it said on X.

Iraq has been drawn into the US-Israeli war on Iran, with Tehran-backed armed groups and US forces trading fire in an escalating cycle of violence.

Egypt

The Egyptian foreign ministry said the ceasefire “represents a very important opportunity that must be seized to make room for negotiations, diplomacy, and constructive dialogue”.

The ministry said in a statement on Facebook that a truce must be built upon with a full commitment to “stopping military operations and respecting freedom of international navigation”.

The post also said that Egypt will continue efforts with Pakistan and Turkiye “to promote security and stability in the region”, and that the talks between the US and Iran “must take into account the legitimate security concerns” of Gulf nations.

Turkiye

⁠Turkiye ⁠welcomed a ceasefire in the ⁠Iran war and ⁠said it would support negotiations set to take ‌place in Islamabad, the Turkish foreign ministry said on Wednesday.

It ⁠stressed the need ⁠for the ceasefire to be ⁠fully implemented on ⁠the ⁠ground and said all parties must ‌adhere to the agreement.

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World welcomes US-Iran ceasefire, urges lasting peace in the Middle East | US-Israel war on Iran News

The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with talks to finalise a peace deal set to begin in Pakistan’s Islamabad on Friday.

The truce, announced by US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, will see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.

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Countries around the world have welcomed the development.

Here’s a roundup of the reaction:

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on X that he supports Trump’s decision to suspend strikes on Iran, and the “US effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat to America, Israel, Iran’s Arab neighbours and the world”.

Netanyahu said, however, that the ceasefire does “not include Lebanon“, where Israeli forces have launched a ground invasion and are fighting with the Iran-aligned Hezbollah.

Iraq

Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed the news of the ceasefire but said that both the US and Iran must commit to the deal to achieve a lasting resolution.

“As the ministry asserts its support for regional and international efforts to contain crises and prioritise the language of dialogue and diplomacy, it stresses the need for full commitment to the ceasefire and refraining from any escalations,” the ministry said.

Iraq has been drawn into the US-Israeli war on Iran, with Tehran-backed armed groups and US forces trading fire in an escalating cycle of violence.

Egypt

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the ceasefire “represents a very important opportunity that must be seized to make room for negotiations, diplomacy, and constructive dialogue”.

The ministry said in a statement on Facebook that a truce must be built upon with a full commitment to “stopping military operations and respecting freedom of international navigation”.

The post also said that Egypt will continue efforts with Pakistan and Turkiye “to promote security and stability in the region”, and that the talks between the US and Iran “must take into account the legitimate security concerns” of Gulf nations.

United Nations

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the announcement and called on all parties to abide by the terms of the ceasefire “in order to pave the way toward a lasting and comprehensive peace in the region”, according to his spokesperson.

Guterres underscored “that an end to hostilities is urgently needed to protect civilian lives and alleviate human suffering”, and thanked Pakistan and other nations involved in facilitating the truce.

Japan

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara told reporters that Tokyo welcomes the news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran as a “positive move” as it awaits a “final agreement”.

Minoru said the de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East remains a top priority, according to the Kyodo News Agency.

Indonesia

Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry Yvonne Mewengkang said Jakarta welcomes a ceasefire deal and called on Iran and the US to respect the “sovereignty, territorial integrity and diplomacy” of each side, according to the Reuters news agency.

Mewengkang also called for a thorough investigation into the deaths of three Indonesian UN peacekeepers killed by explosions in Lebanon in late March amid fighting between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters.

Malaysia

Malaysia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the ceasefire marks a “significant development [and] serves as a crucial step towards de-escalating tensions and restoring much-needed peace and stability” to the Middle East.

It also urged “all parties to fully respect and implement all terms of the ceasefire in good faith to prevent any return to hostilities”, while also avoiding any “provocative actions or unilateral measures that could negatively impact the fragile stability of the region or jeopardise global economic and energy security”.

Australia

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong issued a joint statement welcoming the news and expressing their hopes that the deal will lead to a long-lasting resolution.

“Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with its attacks on commercial vessels, civilian infrastructure, and oil and gas facilities, is causing unprecedented energy supply shocks and impacting oil and fuel prices,” they said.

“We have been clear that the longer the war goes on, the more significant the impact on the global economy will be, and the greater the human cost.”

Albanese and Wong thanked Pakistan, Egypt, Turkiye, and Saudi Arabia for their work as negotiators.

New Zealand

New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters said his government welcomes the news of a ceasefire, although many concerns remain.

“While this is encouraging news, there remains significant important work to be done in the coming days to secure a lasting ceasefire”, as the war has had “wide-ranging impacts and disruptions” on the Middle East and beyond, he wrote in a post on X.

Peters praised countries like Pakistan, Turkiye, and Egypt for their work negotiating a deal.

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South Korea spy agency sees Middle East conflict easing

National Intelligence Service chief Lee Jong-seok (C) attends a plenary session of the intelligence committee at the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, File. Photo by YONHAP / EPA

April 6 (Asia Today) — South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said Monday the conflict between the United States and Iran could enter a lull by the end of this month, while also assessing that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is solidifying a succession plan centered on his daughter.

The assessment was delivered during a closed-door briefing to the National Assembly’s intelligence committee.

The agency said the conflict, which began in February, remains a war of attrition with relatively low likelihood of major escalation, despite continued military pressure.

It said the United States and Israel maintain battlefield superiority, while Iran is leveraging its geopolitical position, including control over energy routes, to sustain its position.

The agency said both sides may pursue limited negotiations, including a potential arrangement in which Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States releases frozen Iranian assets.

Officials said the possibility of the United States escalating the conflict with ground troop deployment remains low for now.

The agency added that the trajectory of the conflict over the coming days, particularly the impact of U.S. airstrikes, will likely determine whether tensions ease toward the end of April.

On North Korea, the intelligence service said Kim Jong Un’s daughter Ju-ae can now be regarded as a likely successor, based on recent intelligence.

It said Ju-ae has increasingly appeared in military-related settings, suggesting efforts to build her leadership profile and normalize the idea of a female successor.

The agency also said recent imagery and public appearances appear designed to highlight her military credentials, including staged scenes reminiscent of Kim Jong Un’s own rise to power.

In contrast, the agency assessed that Kim Yo Jong, Kim’s sister, does not hold substantial independent power, and will likely continue serving as a senior aide and public spokesperson.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260406010001642

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Islamic just war and the nuclear question in post-Khamenei Iran – Middle East Monitor

The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening phase of the US-Israeli war against Iran has generated a striking argument in strategic and theological circles alike: that the killing may have removed not merely a political leader but a normative brake on Iran’s possible march toward nuclear weapons. Reports indicate that Iranian decision-making has since hardened under intense military pressure and an increasingly securitised internal environment.

What gives Khamenei’s death a particular doctrinal significance is that he had, over more than two decades, publicly framed weapons of mass destruction—including nuclear and chemical weapons—as contrary to Islam. If that position represented a genuine religious constraint rather than mere diplomatic rhetoric, then his death may have removed more than a leader: it may have weakened the doctrinal restraint that helped keep Iran a threshold nuclear state.

What gives Khamenei’s death a particular doctrinal significance is that he had, over more than two decades, publicly framed weapons of mass destruction—including nuclear and chemical weapons—as contrary to Islam.

Islamic just war theory places moral constraints on indiscriminate violence, constraints that Khamenei appeared to project onto state policy. With that authority now gone, the central question is whether a moral tradition can discipline a state that increasingly experiences its insecurity as existential. Whether the next supreme leader can impose doctrinal restraint on a system drifting toward hard security logic.

The Islamic just war theory

The Islamic conception of war begins from a premise different from the caricatures often projected onto it. Classical Islamic thought does not treat war as an unbounded field of religious violence. Rather, it regulates warfare through a moral-legal framework derived from the Qur’an, the practice of the Prophet, and the juristic traditions that developed in subsequent centuries. The foundational Qur’anic injunction is taken from verse 2:190: “Fight in the way of God those who fight you, but do not transgress. Indeed, God does not love transgressors.” The verse both permits fighting and limits it: war is accepted as a political reality, but not treated as morally autonomous.

The Islamic conception of war begins from a premise different from the caricatures often projected onto it. Classical Islamic thought does not treat war as an unbounded field of religious violence.

The duality of permission and restraint thus runs through the Islamic just war tradition. War may be legitimate in cases of defence, resistance to aggression, or protection of the community. But even a just cause does not license unlimited means. Islamic jurists emphasised proportionality, legitimate authority, fidelity to agreements, and the protection of non-combatants—including women, children, the elderly, monks, and peasants— developing a norm of discrimination that restricted violence to active combatants.

It is from this perspective that nuclear weapons become especially difficult to reconcile with Islamic ethics. A weapon whose essence is mass, uncontrolled devastation, sits uneasily with any tradition that treats non-combatant immunity as morally central. In Islamic terms, the problem is not simply the scale of destruction, but the very structure of the act: the means themselves are transgressive.

 The fatwa: Genuine constraint or strategic cover?

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s reputed opposition to chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq War established an early precedent for this kind of doctrinal restraint. Iraq used chemical agents extensively, and Iran suffered enormously—some 20,000 Iranians were killed and over 100,000 severely injured. Yet the Islamic Republic did not respond in kind on a comparable scale. Whether that restraint was entirely theological or also strategic remains debated. Recent evidence suggests limited Iranian chemical weapons development during the war. Still, the episode reinforced the notion that certain weapons lay beyond the moral threshold that Iran’s clerical leadership was prepared to cross openly.

Khamenei extended this logic to the nuclear realm. He first issued an oral fatwa in October 2003 declaring nuclear weapons as forbidden (haram) in Islam, and repeated this position in an official statement at the emergency meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency in August 2005. Over subsequent years, Iranian officials repeatedly invoked his religious decree as evidence of the Islamic Republic’s peaceful nuclear intentions.

Khamenei extended this logic to the nuclear realm. He first issued an oral fatwa in October 2003 declaring nuclear weapons as forbidden (haram) in Islam, and repeated this position in an official statement at the emergency meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency in August 2005.

But the fatwa’s authenticity and legal weight have always been contested. Some have argued that no formal written fatwa was ever issued and that what Iran marketed as a religious ruling was, in origin, merely the closing paragraph of a message to a 2010 nuclear disarmament conference, later retroactively framed by Iranian diplomats as a fatwa. Others have documented that Khamenei’s pronouncements on nuclear weapons were inconsistent: at times he categorically forbade development, stockpiling, and use; at other times he appeared to permit development and stockpiling while forbidding use.

None of this entirely strips the fatwa of significance. In political systems where legitimacy is partly theological, a public prohibition articulated by the supreme jurist, even if ambiguous in its legal form, raises the political and doctrinal cost of reversal. As one scholar observes, such declarations make it costly for the Islamic Republic to overturn the publicly stated position even if they do not constitute binding juridical rulings in the formal sense.

Succession and the question of doctrinal inheritance

The critical question of whether Khamenei’s successor would inherit his political and moral authority looms large. On March 9, 2026, the Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of Ali Khamenei as Iran’s third supreme leader. Whether he would inherit his father’s doctrinal commitments, especially on nuclear weapons, is far from clear. Not known as a jurist of comparable standing to his father, Mojtaba’s authority derives primarily from his revolutionary and security credentials rather than from the depth of his theological learning, a fact noted critically within Iran’s clerical establishment, which has historically resisted father-to-son succession as uncomfortably monarchical.

Khamenei’s nuclear prohibition carried weight because it came from the state’s highest religious authority. Mojtaba’s standing is far more contested, which means that any comparable prohibition would likely carry less doctrinal force—while any tacit relaxation would accelerate the erosion of the barrier his father maintained. The IRGC commanders who manoeuvred his appointment to power have long been among those pressing for a reassessment of Iran’s nuclear posture.

Islamic restraint vs strategic realism

This leads to the final and perhaps hardest question: would Iran, if acting as a pure realist state, pursue nuclear weapons regardless of the Islamic just war tradition? The realist answer is straightforward. States seek survival in an anarchic international system. When a state faces stronger adversaries, recurring coercion, and the credible prospect of regime-change violence, it has every incentive to pursue the ultimate deterrent. From this perspective, the logic of nuclear acquisition is not theological but strategic: a bomb would promise not battlefield utility but regime survival, deterrence, and insulation from future attack.

Khamenei’s nuclear prohibition carried weight because it came from the state’s highest religious authority. Mojtaba’s standing is far more contested, which means that any comparable prohibition would likely carry less doctrinal force—while any tacit relaxation would accelerate the erosion of the barrier his father maintained.

And yet Iran is not a pure realist state in the abstract. It is a political order where ideology, clerical authority, national security, and regime survival have long coexisted in uneasy combination. The more interesting possibility, therefore, is not that realism simply replaces theology, but that realism gradually colonises it. In that scenario, doctrine is not openly discarded; it is reinterpreted and subordinated to necessity, allowing the state to retain Islamic language while moving toward a posture that the older Khamenei publicly resisted.

The greater danger is that the Islamic Republic’s language of restraint may cease to anchor policy and instead begin to trail behind it. If so, Iran’s nuclear future will be decided not only in centrifuge halls or command bunkers, but in the struggle between theological limits and strategic fear.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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Inside the Pentagon, fears of a disrupted war effort after Army chief’s ouster

Merely two weeks had passed since the Iran war began when Gen. Randy George, the Army’s highest-ranking officer, began sounding an alarm.

Touring a weapons depot in North Carolina, George warned lawmakers present that the conflict’s vast and ever-growing list of targets was straining U.S. capacity — “depleting our stockpiles faster than we can replace them,” as one congressman recalled. Since assuming Army leadership, George had made it his mission to strengthen the nation’s industrial base in anticipation of precisely this moment, when the United States would be engaged in a major war with a formidable adversary.

On Thursday, in a brief phone call, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired George. No reason was given, a U.S. official familiar with the matter told The Times.

The forced departure of George in the middle of a war created yet another blow to morale inside the Pentagon, where multiple officials expressed dismay over the state of the department’s leadership. Over the last year, Hegseth has fired five sitting members of the joint chiefs of staff, with only two holdovers remaining in their posts.

“Whenever you have a change in leadership, military or otherwise, there is bound to be some churn in information management,” one U.S. official said, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “So what you’re doing, in the middle of a war, as we are taking U.S. casualties, is you’re taking out the general in charge of making sure the right people and equipment are flowing into the Middle East.”

Inside the building, officials believe that Hegseth’s next target is Dan Driscoll, the Army secretary and an ally to President Trump. Driscoll has been seen by Hegseth’s aides as outshining the Defense secretary on prominent policy initiatives.

General Randy George, US Army chief of staff, speaks with soldiers during training exercises

Gen. Randy George, U.S. Army chief of staff, speaks with soldiers during training exercises at Lightning Academy at Schofield Barracks in Honolulu on Nov. 10, 2025.

(Christopher Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

It is a purge that Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill fear could have tangible, detrimental effects on the war effort. Sens. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Joni Ernst of Iowa, all members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, have expressed private concerns over George’s firing, a second U.S. official said.

Forcing out Army leadership responsible for training and equipping its soldiers, and for ensuring weapons stockpiles continue to meet demand, risks bureaucratic chaos and despair in the ranks at a time when the Trump administration is openly considering a ground operation in Iran.

Others in the Pentagon have raised concern over the U.S. military stockpile, including Air Force Secretary Troy Meink, who last month warned at a defense conference that munitions shortages were a concern even before the war began.

“It was something that we were concerned about even before the operation,” Meink said. “It has just been the fact that we couldn’t see the threat evolving and what we’re facing. So we definitely have to improve on that.”

Trump has denied that the United States faces weapons shortages, even after meeting with the nation’s top contractors last month in a push for them to increase — and on some products, quadruple — their output.

“What interceptors we have for Iran is because of Randy George,” the first U.S. official countered. “He continued to work that problem set up through [Thursday]. It’s a problem set he was working in real time.”

Jerry McGinn, director of the Center for the Industrial Base at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said U.S. forces have reached a stage in the war where they can pivot away from standoff weapons systems. With Iran’s air defenses largely degraded, they can instead rely on weapons such as laser-guided bombs, helping ease pressure on stockpiles.

But Iran’s downing of two U.S. aircraft on Friday suggests that longer-range weapons may still be necessary.

“When the stockpile is stressed, as it was after Ukraine and then now with Iran, any surge in need leads to a backlog as they try to replenish,” McGinn said.

“The three things they’ve been using a whole lot of are Tomahawks, [Terminal High Altitude Area Defense] and Patriots, and those inventories were already somewhat depleted after Midnight Hammer last summer,” McGinn added. “You can’t crank those out very fast.”

Beyond his role tending to the nation’s “magazine depth” — making sure the military isn’t firing more weapons than it is able to replenish — George also led the Pentagon’s effort to set up a joint task force last year aimed at speeding up the U.S. military’s ability to counter small unmanned aircraft systems, or drones.

The program has proved critical in the war effort. Tehran now relies heavily on its Shahed drones, with its missile production and launch capacity severely diminished.

Acknowledging the Pentagon expulsions, Iran’s embassy in South Africa posted photos on social media Friday x-ing out portraits of several top U.S. military officials fired in recent months.

“Regime change happened successfully,” the Iranians wrote.

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Major airline slashes fares by 50% for summer as Middle East conflict sparks price war for long-haul flights

A MAJOR airline has slashed the price of fares by 50% for summer as the Middle East war tumbles demand for long-haul flights.

Etihad is now offering some of the lowest ever prices seen for long-haul flights from the UK for May and June as it kicks off a price war with Gulf airlines.

Etihad Airways aircraft with a mobile staircase parked on the tarmac.
Etihad has slashed the price of fares by 50% in hopes that the Middle East conflict will ease next monthCredit: Getty

Travellers can get return economy flights with the gulf airline from London to Sydney, via Abu Dhabi, from £688.

This is almost three times cheaper than flying to the Australian capital with British Airways (BA), via Singapore, on the same dates – which is £1,850 in economy.

The Foreign Office is currently advising against all but essential travel – which doesn’t include holidays – to the United Arab of Emirates amid the ongoing conflict.

But Etihad, which is the official airline of the UAE, appears to be gambling on hopes that the situation in the Middle East will have eased by next month.

C NYTHING

The major World Cup host city which once had the world’s tallest building


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English coastal town overlooked by busy neighbours that’s like ‘going back to 1950s’

An Etihad insider told The Times, which analysed the airline’s prices: “As soon as travel picks up, we want to be back to flying planes 100 per cent full in all cabins, as we were before the conflict. These prices will help.”

The airline is also offering market-leading fares to other popular destinations from the UK, including the Maldives, Tokyo and Bangkok.

Brits can get return economy flights to the Maldives with the airline in May and June from £581 – compared with £3,380 with British Airways.

Flights to Singapore are form £391, but are £980 with BA.

Emirates and Qatar Airways, the other main Gulf airlines, have not cut their prices.

Demand for long-haul flights has plunged since the war in Iran first broke out at the end of February, with flights cancelled and the Foreign Office issuing “do not travel” warnings for countries in the Middle East.

Countries in Europe including Spain have seen demand rise, as Brits look for alternative destinations to travel to.

The UK Foreign Office states: “FCDO advises against all but essential travel to United Arab Emirates.

“Your travel insurance could be invalidated if you travel against advice from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO).”

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Business groups pledge energy savings amid Middle East risks

A car drives past a sign reading ‘cars with even-numbered plates are not allowed to be driven for the day’ in Seoul, South Korea, 17 March 2026. The government invoked emergency measures against severe fine dust, implementing an alternate-day driving system for public agencies and limiting the operation of coal-fired power plants and high-emission state facilities. Photo by YONHAP / EPA

April 3 (Asia Today) — South Korea’s major business groups on Thursday pledged to support government efforts to stabilize energy supply, announcing voluntary measures to reduce consumption as risks grow from instability in the Middle East.

Six economic organizations – including the Korea Economic Association, the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry and other industry groups – said in a joint statement they would take part in nationwide conservation efforts.

“We strongly agree with the government’s call to ensure stable energy supply and promote conservation in preparation for a prolonged Middle East conflict,” the groups said. “We will actively participate in efforts to overcome the crisis.”

The statement comes as the government raised its energy security alert level and introduced additional conservation measures, including expanded vehicle restrictions at public institutions.

Business leaders said ensuring stable energy supplies and improving efficiency have become more urgent than ever, pledging to expand private-sector efforts.

Proposed measures include broader use of flexible work arrangements, such as staggered commuting hours, to reduce traffic demand and energy consumption. Companies also plan to improve manufacturing efficiency and optimize facility operations to cut energy use.

Additional steps include turning off office lighting during lunch breaks and after work hours, as well as encouraging employees to use public transportation.

The groups emphasized that coordinated action among the government, businesses and the public will be essential to address the crisis.

“Voluntary participation is key to spreading a culture of energy conservation,” the statement said, adding that the private sector would play an active role in responding to the situation.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260403010001104

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New EA-37B Compass Call Electronic Warfare Jets Cross Atlantic, Middle East Next? (Updated)

A pair of the U.S. Air Force’s new EA-37B Compass Call electronic warfare jets have touched down at RAF Mildenhall in England, from where they could move forward and join America’s growing aerial armada in the Middle East. 

Last night, open-source flight trackers began to track the progress of the two jets — tail numbers 19-1587 and 17-5579 — that were flying with the callsigns AXIS41 and AXIS43. Photos of the aircraft arriving at Mildenhall were provided to TWZ by g.lockaviation.

One of the two EA-37B Compass Call jets after landing at RAF Mildenhall yesterday evening. g.lockaviation

A pair of U.S. Air Force EA-37B Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft arrived today at RAF Mildenhall in the UK, likely in preparation for a deployment to the Middle East.

17-5579 as AXIS43
19-1587 as AXIS41 pic.twitter.com/1GVyDbmqJO

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) March 31, 2026

This could become the EA-37B’s first operational deployment, but we cannot say that for certain at this time. One of the EA-37Bs was in Europe earlier this year to introduce airmen to the platform, but it was not yet operational. You can read more about that here.

It is worth bearing in mind that, during Operation Desert Storm in 1991, a pair of E-8 Joint STARS surveillance aircraft were also deployed, but were operated by civilian crews. The same could be the case here, or at least mixed crews.

The 55th Wing at Offutt Air Force Base, which operates the Compass Calls, declined to provide TWZ with a comment, deferring us to CENTCOM, which could not immediately comment.

g.lockaviation

The Air Force plans to acquire 10 EA-37Bs to replace its aging and steadily shrinking fleet of turboprop-powered EC-130H Compass Call planes, of which only four are still in service. Two are deployed to the Middle East for Operation Epic Fury. There have been some unconfirmed reports that these aircraft may have been damaged in the attack on Prince Sultan Air Base that saw an E-3 destroyed. Losing EC-130H capability in the region could have very well prompted an emergency deployment of EA-37Bs, even ahead of their planned entry into full operational availability. But we cannot confirm that is the case at this time.

Electromagnetic warfare, evolved




The new aircraft are designed to provide critical standoff jamming support against enemy communications systems, including hostile air defense systems.

As we have pointed out, even improvised systems cobbled together by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as their hodgepodge of other air defenses, have shown their ability to challenge even the most advanced fighters in the U.S. inventory. Iran’s capabilities, while now in a deeply degraded state, are more advanced and already seem to have had some success in targeting U.S. military aircraft, while others have faced close calls.

At the same time, while air defenses are certainly part of the equation, simply keeping the Iranian military from communicating and (further) disrupting their already fractured command-and-control infrastructure is a highly significant capability to bring to bear.

The EA-37B also has an important intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) function, given its ability to spot, track, and geolocate various types of emitters.

This aircraft, which represents the cutting edge in U.S. electronic warfare capabilities, would be highly important for any ground operation, helping to protect troops put in harms way, should this come to pass.

We will have to wait and see if the EA-37Bs make the leap to the CENTCOM area of responsibility. If they do, it will be something of a baptism by fire for America’s new Compass Call.

A full deep-dive into the various capabilities of the EA-37B can be found in this interview with top executives from the two co-primes that are working on the electronic attack aircraft program.

UPDATES:

Our coverage for the day has concluded.

UPDATE: 5:38 PM EST –

CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins provided us with the latest casualty figures for Epic Fury.

There have been 348 troops wounded, six seriously and 315 have returned to duty. There have been 13 troops killed.

Trump told reporters at the White House that the U.S. military will soon depart from the Strait of Hormuz.

“We’ll be leaving very soon,” he proclaimed. “What happens [there] we’ll have nothing to do with.

Trump: “We’ll be leaving very soon… what happens in [Hormuz] we’ll have nothing to do with”

Other countries can “fend for themselves” if they want gas or oil from the Persian Gulf. pic.twitter.com/mZbaQNLCjA

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 31, 2026

CNN said top administration officials acknowledge that the U.S. cannot swiftly end the war within the Trump-imposed four to six week timeline and keep the Strait of Hormuz.

As the White House stares down Trump’s self-imposed four- to six-week deadline for ending the war, top administration officials have privately acknowledged that they can’t both achieve their military objectives swiftly and vow to reopen the strait within the same timeline,…

— Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene) March 31, 2026

Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated the Trump administration’s rationale for going to war with Iran, stating “we were on the verge of having an Iran that had so many missiles and so many drones that nobody could do anything about their nuclear weapons program…”

From Day One, the mission was crystal clear: This was the final, best chance to wipe out Iran’s threat for good – so they can never have a nuclear weapon.@SecRubio breaks it down ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/eChlkRPzyb

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 31, 2026

It appears that USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara, a pair of U.S. Navy Independence class Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) configured for minesweeping, remain in the Pacific.

According to open-source researcher MT Anderson, satellite imagery shows vessels moored alongside each other at Sembawang Shipyard in Singapore. As we have previously noted, ships remain thousands of miles away from their primary assigned operating area in the Middle East, where the conflict with Iran grinds on. That despite concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could be mined.

🇺🇸LCS WATCH: The Sembawang Sit-In
Mar 30 imagery confirms 2x Independence-class Littoral Combat Ships remain moored alongside at Sembawang Shipyard in Singapore.

➡️The distinct trimaran hulls are clearly visible taking up pier space in this false-color capture.
➡️Given the… pic.twitter.com/HL4UjJ2qaX

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) March 31, 2026

Iran released new video of its Eagle 44 underground airbase showing it still has some aircraft. As TWZ editor-in-chief Tyler Rogoway notes in a post on X, low-resolution satellite imagery from March 16 shows relatively little damage at the site. However, things may have changed since then and the site may have been it. Regardless, it doesn’t matter if Eagle 44 only has jets, which wouldn’t last very long even if they got off the ground. However, if the facility were stuffed with missiles, that would be a concern. You can read more about Eagle 44 here.

He’s talking about the Eagle 44 installation. Low res imagery up to 16th doesn’t show signs of major destruction, but it really doesn’t matter at this point as far as the aircraft go. If it has missiles stuffed in there still then yes. More on Eagle 44: https://t.co/cA9hYI8RzX https://t.co/UX01AwvGUL

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) March 31, 2026

UPDATE: 4:06 PM EST –

In a brief exchange during an interview with NBC News Tuesday afternoon, Trump hinted that Epic Fury might be drawing to a close.

“We’re doing great,” Trump told the network. “And it’s coming to an end.”

He offered no further details.

The U.K. is sending more troops and Sky Sabre air defense systems to the Middle East to defend against Iranian attacks. This will bring the total number of UK personnel in the Gulf and Cyprus to around 1,000, the BBC noted.

“On a trip to the Gulf nations, Defense Secretary John Healey said extra air defence teams and systems would be deployed to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait while the use of Typhoon jets in Qatar will be extended,” the outlet added. “My message to Gulf partners is: Britain’s best will help you defend your skies.”

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that his country is exchanging messages with the U.S. either directly or through friends in the region.

But that doesn’t mean there are peace talks with Washington, Araghchi posited.

“I receive messages from [U.S. envoy Steve] Witkoff directly, as before, and this does not mean that we are in negotiations,” he told the news outlet.

Araghchi added that Iran has no “faith that negotiations with the U.S. will yield any results. The Trust level is zero.”

Netanyahu said that as a result of constant Israeli attacks on Iran, “sooner or later, it will end up falling.”

The Israeli leader also said “we are working on transforming Israel into a super nation in the region and globally.”

The IRGC confirmed the killing of another Iranian leader, this time Jamshid Eshaghi, head of budget and financial affairs for the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff. He was killed in a missile strike in Tehran on an unspecified date, according to the IRGC.

Eshaghi played a key role in evading oil sanctions and financing the group’s missile projects, according to Ariel Oseran, senior Middle East correspondent for Israel’sI24 News in a post on X.

The IRGC confirms the elimination of Jamshid Eshaghi, head of budget and financial affairs for the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff, in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran, without specifying the date. Eshaghi played a key role in evading oil sanctions and financing the IRGC’s… pic.twitter.com/hs2npoQTt5

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 31, 2026

The State Department said it is “tracking reports of threats against locations where American citizens gather” in Saudi Arabia. ”We advise U.S. citizens that hotels and other gathering points including U.S. businesses and U.S. educational institutions may be potential targets.”

Saudi Arabia: We are tracking reports of threats against locations where American citizens gather. We advise U.S. citizens that hotels and other gathering points including U.S. businesses and U.S. educational institutions may be potential targets. On March 22, the Department of… pic.twitter.com/9Xm2oLzxzr

— TravelGov (@TravelGov) March 31, 2026

UPDATE 12:46 PM EST –

The Navy released video today of the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush departing for deployment. As we previously noted, the carrier is reportedly heading to the Middle East region. The Bush will likely replace the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, which left the region and is undergoing repairs in Croatia after a fire.

📍NORFOLK, Va. – The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77), the flagship of the George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group, departs Naval Station Norfolk to begin operations in support of its scheduled deployment, March 31, 2026. pic.twitter.com/ePDTv4IcPE

— U.S. Fleet Forces (@USFleetForces) March 31, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at something on Tuesday that at one time was unthinkable – a military alliance with Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations.

According to Israeli media, “Netanyahu told ministers at a cabinet meeting that new alliances are being formed with leaders of Arab countries who ‘are talking about fighting together on our side,’” The Times of Israel reported.

“In the past, I had secret conversations with Arab leaders,” Netanyahu reportedly said. “I told them, ‘As soon as Iran can, it will conquer you and overthrow your kingdoms.’ Back then, they didn’t really internalize things. Today they understand.”

BREAKING 🇮🇱🇦🇪🇸🇦: Israeli PM Netanyahu says talks underway to form alliance with Arab countries to fight alongside Israel. pic.twitter.com/BOmDeCr8H9

— War Radar (@War_Radar2) March 31, 2026

Lebanon has informed the United Nations in a letter that it has outlawed Hezbollah’s military wing. Beirut’s letter, dated a few weeks ago but made public today, also mentioned the Lebanese government’s March 2 decision to ban all military activity by the group.

Lebanon has informed the United Nations in a letter that it has outlawed Hezbollah’s military wing. Beirut’s letter, dated a few weeks ago but made public today, also mentioned the Lebanese government’s March 2 decision to ban all military activity by the group. pic.twitter.com/2npN5Fckpa

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 31, 2026

Hegseth not only validated Trump’s idea to move forward with plans to attack Iran, he also downplayed the inherent risks of the conflict spiraling out of control, according to CNN.

In the immediate lead-up to Iran war, Hegseth not only validated the Trump’s idea to move forward, he also downplayed the inherent risks of the conflict spiraling out of control, three sources tell me & @KristenhCNN.

Nobody in the room during that critical meeting emphasized…

— Zachary Cohen (@ZcohenCNN) March 31, 2026

Poland has no intention of shipping any Patriot batteries to the Middle East despite a request from the U.S. to do so, says Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

“Our Patriot batteries and their armament are used to protect Polish skies and NATO’s eastern flank,” he stated on X. “Nothing is changing in this regard, and we are not planning to relocate them anywhere! Our allies know full well and understand how important the tasks we have here are. Poland’s security is an absolute priority.”

Nasze baterie Patriot i ich uzbrojenie służą do ochrony polskiego nieba i wschodniej flanki NATO. Nic w tej kwestii się nie zmienia i nigdzie nie planujemy ich przemieszczać! Nasi sojusznicy dobrze wiedzą i rozumieją jak ważne mamy tu zadania. Bezpieczeństwo Polski jest…

— Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (@KosiniakKamysz) March 31, 2026

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to strike 18 U.S. technology and defense-related companies operating in the Middle East, Israel’s I24 News reported. The IRGC warned the action could begin as early as tomorrow night if Iran’s senior commanders are targeted.

“In a statement, the IRGC urged employees of the listed firms to evacuate immediately, and advised nearby residents to leave surrounding areas, describing the companies as ‘terrorist’ entities allegedly supporting US and Israeli operations against Iran,” the publication added.

The IRGC threatens to attack 18 U.S. tech companies’ sites in the Middle East, including Apple, Google and Tesla, in response to any future targeted eliminations of its senior commanders as of tomorrow night.

“We advise employees of these companies to leave their workplaces…

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 31, 2026

U.S. President Donald Trump said today that countries should be prepared to go to the Strait of Hormuz and “take” fuel themselves, urging them to show greater resolve. Writing on Truth Social, he argued that nations would need to “learn how to fight for yourselves,” adding that the United States would no longer step in to assist, particularly after what he described as their refusal to support efforts to topple Iran’s leadership.

Trump suggested that countries facing shortages could instead purchase jet fuel from the United States, where supplies are abundant. He added that Iran had effectively been “decimated” and concluded by telling nations to secure their own oil.

“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you…” – President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/aPYmL0qspa

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 31, 2026

NEWS 🧵: I called President Trump for some clarity on this post. He says the U.S. is not pulling assets in and around the Strait of Hormuz yet: “At some point I will, not quite yet, but countries have to come in and take care of it. Iran has been decimated, but they’re going to… pic.twitter.com/67BRdrOkRV

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) March 31, 2026

In a press conference today, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stressed that Operation Epic Fury would conclude “on our terms” and that the United States remains committed to shaping the outcome of the conflict according to its own objectives.

The next days of the Iran war will be “decisive,” Pentagon chief Hegseth said at his first news conference in nearly two weeks. He adds: “We have more and more options, and they have less… in only one month, we set the terms, the upcoming days will be decisive. Iran knows that, and there’s almost nothing they can militarily do about it.”

The war secretary reaffirmed that the option of some kind of ground campaign has not been ruled out. Hegseth said that “maybe negotiations will work,” but he was unwilling to commit one way or the other when asked about the potential for American boots on the ground.

Hegseth continued:

“You can’t fight and win a war if you tell your adversary what you are willing to do or what you are not willing to do, to include boots on the ground. Our adversary right now thinks there are 15 different ways we could come at them with boots on the ground, and guess what? There are. And so if we needed to, we could execute those options on behalf of the president of the United States and this department.”

“Or maybe we don’t have to use them at all. Maybe negotiations work, or maybe there’s a different approach. But the point is to be unpredictable in that you certainly do not let anybody know what you’re willing to do or not do.”

More here. Hegseth, speaking to concerns about the war in Iran from some of Trump’s political base:

“As far as President Trump and boots on the ground, I don’t understand why the base, which they have already, they understand wouldn’t have faith in his ability to execute on… https://t.co/7wBzUlntGI

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 31, 2026

Hegseth went on to argue that recent events have exposed the level of support the United States can expect from its allies, suggesting that their responses have fallen short. According to Hegseth, while the missiles in question do not threaten the United States directly but rather its allies, requests for assistance — or even basic overflight access — have often been met with hesitation or obstacles.

Hegseth also confirmed that he had briefly visited the U.S. Central Command region recently.

Press conference at Pentagon just began. Hegseth says he was in the Centcom region for half a day recently — something not previously disclosed.

He has a notably different tone in his opener today, sharing details about what he saw and gratefulness to the service members in the…

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 31, 2026

He concluded by warning that an alliance loses its meaning if member countries are unwilling to stand together when it matters most.

When it comes to overflight access, France has apparently joined Spain in denying U.S. military access to their airspace for taking part in attacks on Iran. In a statement, Trump slammed France for refusing to let U.S. military aircraft carrying military supplies operate in its airspace.

Trump:

The Country of France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory.

France has been VERY UNHELPFUL with respect to the “Butcher of Iran,” who has been successfully eliminated! The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!! pic.twitter.com/uu7hezFJUq

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 31, 2026

In other France-related news, Israel has apparently stopped defense exports to the European country, citing “hostile attitude,” sources told The Jerusalem Post.

Meanwhile, Italy confirmed that it denied permission for U.S. military aircraft to land at Sigonella Air Base in Sicily last week, before heading to the ​Middle East; this was due to Washington having not sought prior authorization from the government in Rome, Reuters reports. A source at the Italian defense ministry told The Guardian that “some US bombers” had been due to land at Sigonella en route to the Middle East. Otherwise, U.S. military aircraft continue to operate from Italian airbases as a matter of course, the defense ministry confirmed.

Italian MOD just released this:

Someone is trying to push the narrative that Italy has decided to suspend the use of its bases by U.S. assets.

That is simply false, because the bases are active, in use, and nothing has changed.

The Government continues to do what all Italian… https://t.co/j505zNnuVu

— The Aviationist (@TheAviationist) March 31, 2026

Gen. Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said the U.S. military is delivering precision strikes against manufacturing nodes “deep within Iran.”

He says around 11,000 targets have been hit in the past 30 days. The U.S. military “continues to assert dominance over the Iranian Navy,” he added.

Caine added that more than 150 ships have been “taken out.”

An underground missile storage facility in Sofeh, in Isfahan province, appears to be among the hardened facilities targeted in recent strikes. Earlier accounts suggested that the target was an Iranian underground missile base, but that seems to be refuted by the geolocation of the imagery available.

Videos purporting to show the aftermath of the strikes include multiple secondary explosions, suggesting that bunker-busting munitions managed to penetrate the vaults and then detonate the missiles stored there. As we have described in the past, a key vulnerability of Iranian subterranean installations is the risk that even a single weapon penetrating their hardened exterior by any means could have absolutely catastrophic results.

Last night, President Trump published footage on his Truth Social account showing massive explosions and secondary detonations in Iran.
Reports indicated that the strike took place in the Safeh–Havanirooz area, south Esfahan.@NASA Fire monitoring maps indeed detected active… https://t.co/69f3khsLiw pic.twitter.com/6ffTI0xZIk

— Ben Tzion Macales (@BenTzionMacales) March 31, 2026

Officials familiar with U.S. and Western intelligence assessments say the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has fractured the Iranian government, making it harder for the country to make decisions or coordinate large-scale retaliatory attacks, The New York Times reports.

Since the conflict began four weeks ago, several dozen Iranian leaders and their deputies have been killed. Survivors face significant communication challenges and are unable to meet in person, fearing that their calls could be intercepted by the United States or Israel and lead to airstrikes.

Although Iran’s security and military agencies remain operational, the government’s capacity to develop new strategies or policies has been significantly weakened.

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has fractured the Iranian government, complicating its ability to make decisions and coordinate larger retaliatory attacks.

Several dozen Iranian leaders and their deputies have been killed since the war began four weeks ago. Those who survive…

— Ronen Bergman (@ronenbergman) March 30, 2026

Iranian state media reported yesterday that a parliamentary committee has approved a plan to impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to a Telegram post by the Fars News Agency, the strait would remain closed to vessels from the United States, Israel, and countries involved in sanctions against Iran. The report added that Iran would play a “sovereign” role in enforcing the new system.

The proposal, which has been backed by Iran’s parliament security committee, would still require agreement from other countries bordering the strait. Details on the level of the proposed tolls have not been disclosed.

Meanwhile, as you can read about in our previous coverage, President Trump warned that if no agreement is reached with Iran — including reopening the Strait of Hormuz shipping route — the U.S. military forces would destroy “all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!).”

More information on the proposed toll arrangement emerged today, including the surprising suggestion that Oman is slated to help shape the legal framework. This was reported by Fars and later picked up by Bloomberg, but has yet to be independently verified. Oman has strong relations with the United States, including extensive security cooperation. Oman also plays a key role as a regional mediator, particularly between the United States and Iran.

A pair of container ships operated by the Chinese shipping giant Cosco have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz and exited the Gulf, according to ship-tracking data.

The vessels, CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean, sailed near the Iranian-controlled island of Larak and are now heading toward Port Klang in Malaysia.

While Iran has largely restricted traffic through the key waterway, it appears to be permitting limited passage for ships from countries it considers “non-hostile,” including Thailand, China, Pakistan, and India.

Two COSCO Container Ships Make First Major Commercial Crossing of Strait of Hormuz Since War Began

After turning back on an initial attempt, the CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean sailed through the strategic waterway on Monday toward Malaysia, a rare transit for major… pic.twitter.com/kBwscFC7qU

— Washington Eye (@washington_EY) March 30, 2026

Iran struck a fully laden crude oil tanker anchored in the port of Dubai, setting it on fire and damaging its hull in what marks the latest attack on commercial shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict.

Authorities in Dubai said the drone strike on the Al Salmi tanker sparked a blaze that was brought under control early Tuesday, several hours after the incident was first reported. They later confirmed that no oil spill had occurred.

Dubai authorities confirm that response teams have successfully contained the incident involving the Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters, with no oil leakage and no injuries reported.

— Dubai Media Office (@DXBMediaOffice) March 31, 2026

Iran is reportedly pushing the Houthis to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping, contingent upon any further escalation by the United States in the conflict with Iran. This was reported by Bloomberg, citing European officials familiar with the matter.

An Israeli military spokesperson has said the country is ready to continue its offensive against Iran for an extended period. According to Reuters, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani told reporters that Israel is prepared for “weeks” more of fighting in the conflict, which began on February 28 when joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. He emphasized that while the final decision rests with political leaders, “we are prepared to keep operating for weeks to come. We have the targets for that, the munitions for that, the manpower for that, and it’s up to the leadership to decide”.

His remarks follow comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said the campaign was “definitely beyond the halfway point,” later clarifying that he was referring to progress in terms of “missions” rather than “not necessarily in terms of time.”

A photo released by the Israeli Air Force today shows an F-16D Barak armed with 2,000-pound-class Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), apparently heading out to attack infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in Beirut. IAF

In a televised interview, Netanyahu has claimed that Iran has tried to kill President Trump twice, although he did not provide a timeline for when these attempts were made or how. “They’re still trying to kill him,” the Israeli leader added.

The Israeli military claimed today that all of its critical and essential pre-war targets in Iran will have been destroyed by Wednesday.

This represents the complete elimination of the top two priority categories of pre-war targets and is part of the broader campaign in which the IDF has destroyed roughly 60 to 70 percent of all designated targets within the Islamic Republic.

The Israeli Air Force carried out over 230 strikes in Iran in the past day, the military says, publishing footage showing attacks on Iranian air defense systems in Tehran.

The IDF says other targets hit in the past day included primed ballistic missile launchers and weapon… pic.twitter.com/sLuUZFqYV8

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 31, 2026

“Critical” targets include those posing an immediate threat to Israel, such as ballistic missile facilities, as well as key sites central to the objectives of the campaign, including the few remaining nuclear-related installations.

The IDF announced that all of its critical and essential pre-war Iran targets, including ballistic missile industry targets and nuclear-related targets, will have been destroyed by Wednesday.

✍️ @Jeremybob1 https://t.co/EYankG9iuQ

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 31, 2026

On the topic of nuclear-related targets, President Trump disclosed today that he considers that Iran’s nuclear facilities are buried so deeply that it would be difficult to raid them to secure their enriched uranium stockpiles.

“I don’t even think about it. I just know that, you know, that’s so deeply buried it’s gonna be very hard for anybody,” Trump told CBS News.

TWZ has previously explored the possibility of U.S. and/or Israeli authorities launching a special operations ground raid to extract or otherwise neutralize Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. While noting that it is far from easy to achieve this objective from the air alone, it is also true that Israel has demonstrated its ability and willingness to carry out complex raids on subterranean facilities in the past. Nevertheless, any such operation would still face immense risks and uncertainties.

Four Israeli soldiers have been killed during fighting in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military said on Tuesday, as its forces continue to clash with the Iran-backed Hezbollah.

In a statement, the military identified three soldiers from the same battalion who “fell during combat,” while a separate statement said a fourth soldier, whose name has not yet been released, was also killed in the same incident, according to Agence France-Presse.

The military added that another soldier was seriously injured, while a reservist sustained moderate wounds.

🕯️Captain Noam Madmoni, 22
🕯️Staff Sergeant Ben Cohen, 21
🕯️Staff Sergeant Maxsim Entis, 21

All 3 soldiers, a team commander and 2 soldiers, from the Nahal Reconnaissance Battalion (934th), Nahal Brigade, fell during combat in southern Lebanon.

I send my deepest condolences… pic.twitter.com/6fVH6PpyJm

— LTC Nadav Shoshani (@LTC_Shoshani) March 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry has said it intercepted and destroyed 10 drones in recent hours, along with eight missiles targeting the Riyadh area and the country’s eastern region.

The United Arab Emirates says its air defenses engaged eight ballistic missiles, four cruise missiles, and 36 drones launched from Iran earlier today.

UAE air defences engaged 8 Ballistic missiles and 4 Cruise missiles and 36 UAV’s.

The UAE air defences on 31th March 2026 engaged 8 Ballistic missiles, 4 Cruise missiles and 36 UAV’s launched from Iran.

Since the start of the blatant Iranian attacks, UAE air defences have… pic.twitter.com/kSolj166Kq

— وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae) March 31, 2026

Furthermore, Kuwait reported that its air defences were responding to hostile missile and drone attacks. Neither country specified the origin of the projectiles.

Gulf partners of the United States, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are pressing President Trump to keep up military operations against Iran, asserting that Tehran has not been sufficiently weakened by the month‑long U.S.‑led bombing campaign, according to U.S., Gulf, and Israeli officials, AP reports.

“Officials from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have conveyed in private conversations that they do not want the military operation to end until there are significant changes in the Iranian leadership…” https://t.co/WRh4iTIwx5

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) March 30, 2026

A recent video released by U.S. Central Command includes footage of attacks on pickup trucks configured to launch drones, including Shahed-136 one-way attack drones.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 This is, to my knowledge, the first indication that Iran is launching Shahed-136 strike drones, among other designs, from pickup trucks (without the use of a rocket booster/RATO) during this war. This is a low-signature approach that is well-suited for use in surprise… https://t.co/R1AJdAoG4h pic.twitter.com/cGUoAOqE2b

— Shahryar Pasandideh (@shahpas) March 31, 2026

NPR has reported that the Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base last week damaged two U.S. Air Force E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft. Previously, we had gotten confirmation that one aircraft was entirely destroyed. The extent of the damage to the other is unclear.

NPR now reports that Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base damaged two U.S. E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft.

One has been confirmed destroyed. https://t.co/ZmYHTAOJvh

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 31, 2026

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has claimed that Ukrainian intelligence had information that a Russian spy satellite had photographed the base three times before the attack, with targeting data provided to Iran. While that may be true, commercially available satellite imagery over the same period also revealed the likely position of the E-3s at the base.

Comparative images in planet labs of Prince Sultan Air Base from two weeks ago (delayed) and days before tell you everything you need to know about how Iran could have targeted certain aircraft on that airfield even without real time intel.

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) March 30, 2026

A video circulating on social media appears to show an Iranian ballistic missile maneuvering to evade an Israeli interceptor. If verified, this would not be the first occasion that we have seen evidence of more advanced types of Iranian missiles still being fired at Israel and eluding air defenses. We have seen multiple occasions where Iranian maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs) have been able to pierce interceptor barrages during the terminal stage.

At least some of the aircrews of the three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles that were shot down in a friendly-fire incident by Kuwaiti air defenses are still flying missions in Epic Fury, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has confirmed. “Admiral Cooper noted this morning that the three Air Force captains who were shot down by Kuwaiti friendly fire early in the fight never left the theater. All dropped bombs over Tehran last night.”

.@SECWAR “Admiral Cooper noted this morning that the three Air Force captains who were shot down by Kuwaiti friendly fire early in the fight never left the theater.

All dropped bombs over Tehran last night.” pic.twitter.com/tWGQdKBAx2

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) March 31, 2026

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Thomas is a defense writer and editor with over 20 years of experience covering military aerospace topics and conflicts. He’s written a number of books, edited many more, and has contributed to many of the world’s leading aviation publications. Before joining The War Zone in 2020, he was the editor of AirForces Monthly.


Howard is a Senior Staff Writer for The War Zone, and a former Senior Managing Editor for Military Times. Prior to this, he covered military affairs for the Tampa Bay Times as a Senior Writer. Howard’s work has appeared in various publications including Yahoo News, RealClearDefense, and Air Force Times.




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Bunkers For U.S. Bases In Middle East Now A Top Priority For Pentagon

Fielding more hardened shelters to better protect U.S. forces at bases in the Middle East is now a top priority in the face of Iranian attacks, according to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. At the same time, this underscores questions about why more investments in physical hardening were not made in the region well before the current conflict. This is especially true given months of planning leading up to this and the clear threats that Iranian drones and missiles posed.

For years now, TWZ has been highlighting how the lack of hardened infrastructure at American military facilities abroad and at home creates worrisome vulnerabilities. This is especially concerning when it comes to aircraft parked in the open, like the E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) that was destroyed in an Iranian attack last week.

Hegseth talked about U.S. defensive posture in the Middle East at a press conference today at the Pentagon. The Secretary also announced that he had made a previously undisclosed visit to the region to meet with American service members.

Hegseth shakes hands with a US service member somewhere in the Middle East during his recent trip. US Military

“I’ll say, what I witnessed, where I went, was a completely locked-in discipline of bunker use and bunker improvement. So, from the beginning, as we stated very clearly, the first thing we did was set up a defense and make sure our defensive capabilities were maxed out before any of this even started,” Hegseth said. “That included fortifications, as much as possible, but it also included dispersement [sic]. If all of our people are in one place, you can imagine why that’s a big problem.”

“Alongside that dispersement [sic] is more and more bunkers. And I can tell you, talking to base commanders, talking to our allies in Israel, talking to others, rapidly fielding that and then improving those positions is a theater priority, no doubt, as are the air defenses and the layered air defenses,” he continued. “It’s not just Patriots and THAADs [Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems]. It’s fighters and defensive CAPs [combat air patrols]. It’s other kinetic defeat systems. It’s electronic warfare. So the defense of our troops and our assets is max [sic].”

“I will say, on some of those other assets you talked about, air wings, airframes, there’s some things adversaries are doing to provide info and intel that they shouldn’t. We’re aware of it, and ultimately, we move things around,” he added. “One of the biggest principles you learn in the military is to not set patterns, predictable patterns, and so we’re – commanders are working hard to adjust in real time with those systems and make sure they’re in the right places and not easily targetable.”

Hegseth was responding to a two-part question about the status of efforts to establish additional bunkers at bases in the region and what other measures were being taken to better protect high-value assets, including aircraft like the E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS). On March 27, an Iranian attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia succeeded in destroying one of these prized AWACS jets, as well as damaging other aircraft and injuring several American service members, as you can read more about here.

Separately, on March 23, the U.S. Space Force had put out a contracting notice to identify “potential sources” of “prefabricated, transportable, hardened shelter systems” that could be delivered to Jordan within weeks or even days of a contract award. The U.S. military has a major presence in Jordan, particularly at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, which has been a key hub in the current campaign against Iran. Muwaffaq Salti has, in turn, also come under Iranian attack, with an AN/TPY-2 missile defense radar there having been notably targeted.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers also put out another contracting notice regarding planned new hardened underground facilities at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on March 25, which TWZ was first to report. This is a longer-term project, with work not expected to start until 2028.

Though Hegseth says more bunkers for bases in the Middle East are now a priority, it remains unclear why this was not already the case years ago. There has been no shortage of examples in the region of the threats posed by Iran’s drone and missile arsenals, as well as those employed by Iranian-backed proxies. This includes numerous instances of direct and sometimes fatal attacks on U.S. forces, as well as on allies and partners. Drone threats, in general, are not new and have only continued to grow, something TWZ has been sounding the alarm on for nearly a decade now. In turn, we have also highlighted the curious lack of investment in hardened infrastructure, especially to better protect aircraft, which are especially vulnerable when parked out on open flight lines.

KC-135 tankers seen parked out in the open at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in 2021. USAF

In recent years, U.S. military officials have often pushed back on calls for more physical hardening, having questioned the cost-effectiveness and general utility of doing so. More emphasis has generally been put on expanding active defenses, such as surface-to-air missiles, as well as employing concepts of operations centered on dispersion of forces and camouflage, concealment, and deception. In addition to talking about the importance of bunkers, Hegseth hit these same general talking points himself just this morning.

The destruction of the E-3 at Prince Sultan Air Base raises additional questions about the limits of dispersal and other operating concepts, which the U.S. Air Force has codified under the banner of Agile Combat Employment (ACE). Satellite imagery makes clear that E-3s and other aircraft have continued to be parked out in the open at well-established points on the taxiways at the base in Saudi Arabia. More broadly speaking, American forces in the region continue to operate primarily from a small number of large bases, the locations of which are well known.

Visualizing ACE




Furthermore, in his remarks today, Hegseth alluded to reports that Russia and China have been helping Iran target key assets at bases in the Middle East, including through the provision of satellite imagery. In the past decade, the Chinese have dramatically expanded their space-based surveillance capabilities. The commercial satellite imagery sector in that country has also grown.

At the same time, while additional information from those sources would help refine Iranian targeting processes, it would not be necessary to launch attacks on key assets and facilities, especially larger ones, at locations like Prince Sultan or Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan. Iran has its own intelligence streams in the region that it could leverage, as well. We have seen numerous examples of very deliberate targeting on the part of Iranian forces, especially when it comes to prized air and missile defense radars and communications arrays, many of which are fixed in place, from the start of the current conflict.

And they VERY likely had recent intel from satellite imagery (China and Russia)

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) March 30, 2026

There are ways to provide targeting data beyond near real time satellite imagery. And even then, who knows how often they are moving them. It would be worth a BM and definitely worth a hopeful shot of a one-way attack drone.

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) March 29, 2026

In the past few years, there has been some signs of a tonal shift across the U.S. military when it comes to physical hardening, especially against drone attacks. Just last week, authorities at Shaw Air Force Base in California put out a contracting notice regarding plans to put up counter-drone nets around non-hardened sunshade-type shelters on the flightline, a defensive measure that other Air Force facilities have been exploring, as well. In addition to seeing more pushes for additional passive defenses at established bases, work has been touted on more rapidly deployable capabilities to support expeditionary and distributed operations.

An entire section on physical hardening from new counter-drone guidance the US military released in January. US Military

At the same time, the U.S. military is clearly still playing catch-up in this regard. These are issues that extend well beyond the Middle East and the current conflict with Iran, too. Though Iran’s drones and missiles clearly present real dangers, the scale and scope of those attacks pale in comparison to the volume and diversity of incoming threats U.S. forces would expect to face in a large-scale conflict in the Pacific against China.

It is true that you cannot protect everything from every threat, but physical hardening can help lessen the impacts. It also limits the overall options an enemy has for attacking a particular target and imposes additional costs to achieving the desired level of destruction. Paired with other tactics, it can drastically improve the survivability of a combat air force on the ground.

Hopefully there will FINALLY be a real wake up call here on hardened infrastructure for air bases. They (DoW leadership) have and are living in a fantasy land with this. It’s maddening. It’s easier to kill your most potent combat aircraft on the ground, where they sped the vast…

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) March 29, 2026

And this is at home and overseas. You can’t protect everything, not even close, but you can protect a portion of your fleet and plan around that capacity.

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) March 29, 2026

The current conflict with Iran has clearly put new emphasis on expanding the hardened infrastructure at air bases and other facilities in the Middle East, but it remains to be seen whether this latest wakeup call will be heard more broadly.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Joseph has been a member of The War Zone team since early 2017. Prior to that, he was an Associate Editor at War Is Boring, and his byline has appeared in other publications, including Small Arms Review, Small Arms Defense Journal, Reuters, We Are the Mighty, and Task & Purpose.




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The Future of Middle East-Africa Trade Alliances

Home Transaction Banking Bridging Continents: The Future of Middle East-Africa Trade Alliances

Islam Zekry, Group Chief Finance & Operation Officer and Executive Board Member at CIB, explores how GCC-Africa partnerships are driving economic growth, resilience and a transformative era of South-South cooperation, and how Egypt’s strategic location and financial expertise position it as a key player in emerging trade corridors.

Global Finance: How can new trade alliances and partnerships, particularly between the GCC and African nations, drive economic growth and resilience across both regions?

Islam Zekry: The partnership between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Africa is gaining momentum. However, what is changing is the depth and strategic intent behind these partnerships. As global supply chains fragment and capital becomes more selective, structured trade alliances between GCC nations and African economies have the potential to create one of the most significant South–South growth corridors of the next decade.

Several structural complementarities underpin this opportunity. GCC economies possess deep capital pools, sovereign investment vehicles, advanced logistics capabilities and strong global trade linkages. In addition, many African economies are rich in natural resources, arable land, renewable energy potential and rapidly growing consumer markets with favorable demographics.

When strategically aligned, partnerships can yield positive growth outcomes. For example, food security partnerships, where African agricultural production meets Gulf demand, demonstrate this potential. Moreover, investments in energy and transition, particularly in renewables and green hydrogen, support the transition towards cleaner energy resources. Such partnerships can also drive the development of the infrastructure and logistics sector—strengthening ports, industrial zones and transport corridors. Ultimately, financial sector integration enhances capital flows and trade finance capacity.


“Egypt is not just a transit point for global trade—it is becoming a focal point in a more integrated Afro-Arab economic architecture.”

Islam Zekry, Group Chief Finance & Operation Officer and Executive Board Member at CIB


Beyond capital deployment, what differentiates the next phase of GCC–Africa engagement is the development of capacity for resilience. Global shocks—whether pandemic disruptions, geopolitical tensions or commodity volatility—have demonstrated the importance of diversified trade relationships. GCC–Africa alliances reduce overdependence on traditional West–East corridors, creating balanced, multipolar trade flows.

Therefore, for these partnerships to reach their full potential, financial architecture must evolve in tandem with physical infrastructure. Efficient cross-border payment systems, local currency settlement mechanisms, risk-sharing frameworks and strong banking partnerships determine how seamlessly goods, services,and capital move between the two regions. This is where banks with both regional understanding and international connectivity play a transformative role, not merely as financial intermediaries, but as enablers of structured trade ecosystems.

GF: What makes Egypt uniquely positioned to serve as a trade and investment hub between the Middle East and Africa, and how can this role evolve in the context of emerging trade corridors?

Zekry: Strategically positioned at the convergence of Africa, the Middle East and Europe, Egypt controls one of the world’s crucial maritime arteries through the Suez Canal. The country boasts one of Africa’s largest and most diversified economies and hosts one of the region’s leading banking sectors.

However, Egypt’s strategic relevance goes beyond geography. The country serves as a natural logistical bridge. It connects Mediterranean trade routes with Red Sea and Gulf shipping lanes while maintaining deep commercial ties across Sub-Saharan Africa. This dual orientation—northward to Europe and southward into Africa—positions Egypt as a balancing hub within emerging trade corridors.

The country has also built significant industrial and export capacity. Its robust manufacturing base, expanding energy sector,and growing role in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and renewable energy markets position it as a credible anchor economy within regional value chains. Egypt’s financial institutions support cross-border expansion and structured trade finance. Egyptian banks have developed strong capital bases, regional expertise and global correspondent networks, enabling them to intermediate complex trade flows across Africa and the Middle East.

As new trade corridors emerge, from Red Sea logistics networks to Gulf-backed infrastructure investments in East Africa, alongside the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) driven continental integration, Egypt’s role is set to evolve across three key areas. The country functions as a gateway for capital deployment into Africa, serving as a strategic hub for GCC and international investors seeking structured entry into African markets. It also has the potential to serve as a regional trade finance hub, facilitating corridor-based financing between North Africa, East Africa,and the Gulf. Finally, Egypt can act as a connector of payment ecosystems, enabling interoperability between African financial systems and Middle Eastern capital markets.

The next phase of Egypt’s development hinges on deepening this integration, aligning customs frameworks, digitizing trade documentation, strengthening regional payment systems and encouraging bilateral currency arrangements. If strategically executed, Egypt will not simply remain a transit point for global trade, but will become a focal point in a more integrated Afro-Arab economic architecture.

The future of Middle East–Africa trade alliances will not be defined solely by infrastructure announcements or headline investments. It will depend on how effectively capital, policy and financial systems converge to support real economic exchange. In this context, Egypt stands out as both a geographic and financial bridge. Therefore, strengthening GCC–Africa partnerships represents not just an opportunity, but a structural shift toward greater regional resilience and South–South cooperation.

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