SACRAMENTO — There has never been a California governor’s race like this one. And that was even before the leading Democrat was shoved aside by shocking accusations of sexual assault.
For months, the contest has been uninspiring, unexciting and unwatchable. It really shouldn’t have been called a “race.” It was more like a slow trot. No candidate has drawn even 20% of voters’ support in independent polling. Half the 10 main candidates have been stuck in single digits.
And in less than a month, voters will start casting mail-in ballots.
But suddenly eyes and ears have opened.
Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell, a congressman from the East San Francisco Bay, was accused by a former young female staffer of twice sexually assaulting her when she was too intoxicated to consent.
The San Francisco Chronicle reported that Friday and CNN soon followed with a similar report, adding accusations of sexual misconduct from three other women.
“I was pushing him off of me saying no,” the anonymous former staffer told CNN. “He didn’t stop.”
Swalwell, who is married and has three children, strongly denied the accusations.
The incidents “never happened,” he said. “I will fight them with everything I have….
“I have certainly made mistakes in judgment in my past, but these mistakes are between me and my wife. And to her I apologize deeply for putting her in this position.”
Sorry, congressman, but if someone is running for governor of the nation’s largest state, the mistakes aren’t just between him and his wife.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco told Swalwell, in essence, that it’s his right to fight the accusations, but he should do it on his own time, not the Democratic Party’s. She was among the first of party leaders to call on him to abandon the race.
Bye, bye Eric. Might as well depart the House, too.
A leading candidate for California governor has never crumbled so fast. It was like a dam bursting.
Powerful interests and major politicians had been coalescing behind the 45-year-old congressman because he charmed them or they were loyal colleagues or — most important — he seemed like a potential winner.
Political players, including campaign donors, seek to invest their capital in anticipated victors. Their expected return is access and favors. And Swalwell had been racking up lots of endorsements.
But almost immediately after the sex scandal broke, supporters began fleeing the reeking corpse.
Marital infidelity is one thing, but alleged sexual assault — rape — cannot be tolerated, especially by a party dominated by female voters.
Labor unions, other interests and influential politicians began backing off their endorsements. Many urged Swalwell to fold his campaign. And with his support collapsing, he really was left ultimately with no other choice.
So, now the most pertinent question is which candidate will replace Swalwell as the Democrat with the best chance of surviving the June 2 top-two primary and winning a spot on the November ballot.
If it’s a Democrat against a Republican in November–the most likely matchup–the Democrat is a virtual cinch to succeed the termed out Gov. Gavin Newsom. No Republican has won a statewide race in California in 20 years.
State Democratic Chairman Rusty Hicks — as part of his effort to pressure lagging candidates to exit the race and make more room for faster runners — released a nonpartisan, party-paid poll last week. It was conducted before Swalwell’s collapse.
It showed two Republicans tied for the lead with 14% each: Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton.
Among Democrats, Swalwell led with 12%, slightly ahead of billionaire hedge fund founder Tom Steyer at 11%. Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter had 7%. Then came former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, San José Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, each with 4%.
Former state controller Betty Yee and state schools chief Tony Thurmond barely registered at 1% each.
For weeks, it has been deemed conceivable that both Republican candidates would finish ahead of all Democrats in the June 2 primary. Democratic voters would splinter their support among the party’s crowded field. That would lock out Democrats from the November ballot and guarantee the election of a Republican.
But President Trump seemed to botch that for the GOP last week by endorsing Hilton. Trump presumably will help the former British politico draw votes from Bianco and indirectly assist a Democrat in finishing second.
There’s a new twist, however. Where will Swalwell’s votes go? If enough go to the Democratic laggers rather than the party frontrunners, both Republicans could still wind up one-two.
No gubernatorial contest in modern times has been this wide open.
These candidates’ failure to make waves isn’t all their fault. Some were slow diving into the water. But even those who tried to make a splash were inundated by Trump.
Practically all the public’s attention has been on the president and his oddball or vengeful or unprincipled actions.
Now the Democratic race is more wide open than ever.
Steyer — a liberal climate fighter — has run an energetic campaign, spending more than $100 million of his own money on TV ads. But will Californians elect a mega-rich governor? They never have.
Porter has been running better in polls than the latest Democratic survey showed. She’s straight forward on all the issues, but a bit too liberal and feisty for some establishment Democrats. Swalwell’s fall is her opportunity to rise.
Becerra — a former state attorney general and congressman — has an impressive resume, but was too slow out of the starting gate. This is his chance to sprint, if he can.
No candidate is more qualified to be governor than centrist Villaraigosa, a former state Assembly speaker. But voters apparently are looking for someone younger. He’s 73.
Mayhan is a moderate who started too late and has fallen far short of expectations. He now has a second chance.
It soon will all be in the hands of voters, whether they’re interested or not.
What else you should be reading
The must-read: Eric Swalwell’s bid for California governor is over. Let the political scrambling begin
Knives out: GOP’s best shot at California governor’s office in decades mired in angry internal debate
The L.A. Times Special: Newsom reluctant to endorse a successor, break gridlock in governor’s race
Until next week,
George Skelton
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