Voters in Japan are casting their ballots in a parliamentary election expected to deliver a resounding victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s conservative coalition.
The snap vote on Sunday comes as Takaichi seeks a new mandate to push through an ambitious agenda, including increased defence spending and tougher immigration measures.
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The coalition of Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, could win more than 300 of the 465 seats in the lower house of parliament, according to multiple opinion polls.
The figure would mark a substantial gain from the 233 it is defending.
The opposition, despite the formation of a new centrist alliance and a rising far-right, is seen as too splintered to be a real challenger.
Takaichi, 64, is Japan’s first female prime minister and took office in October after being selected as the LDP’s leader. The ultraconservative politician has pledged to “work, work, work”, and her style – seen as both playful and tough – has resonated with younger voters.
She has said she will step down if the LDP fails to win a majority.
Rising cost of living
Voters on Sunday will select lawmakers in 289 single-seat constituencies, with the remainder decided by proportional representation votes for parties. Polls close at 8pm local time (11:00 GMT), when broadcasters are expected to issue projections based on exit polls.
The rising cost of living has taken centre stage in the election.
The issue is voters’ main concern, with prices rising while real wage growth lags behind inflation, leaving households worse off. Japan also faces longstanding problems with sluggish economic growth. The economy expanded just 1.1 percent last year and is on track to grow by only 0.7 percent in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Takaichi has promised to suspend the 8 percent sales tax on food for two years to help households cope with rising prices.
The pledge follows the approval last year of Japan’s largest stimulus package since the COVID-19 pandemic, a 21.3 trillion yen ($136bn) injection into the economy, heavily focused on cost-of-living relief measures, including energy bill subsidies, cash handouts and food vouchers.
Takaichi has also promised to revise security and defence policies by December to bolster Japan’s offensive military capabilities, lifting a ban on weapons exports and moving further away from the country’s post-war pacifist principles. She has been pushing for tougher immigration policies, including stricter requirements for foreign property owners and a cap on foreign residents.
Al Jazeera’s Patrick Fok, reporting from Tokyo, said Takaichi, who is favoured by a majority of voters under the age of 30, is hoping to capitalise on her “tremendous popularity” and secure a landslide victory for her coalition.
“That result – if indeed that’s how it turns out – will mark a remarkable turnaround, really, for the LDP. Months ago, it was a party in disarray. It had lost its parliamentary majority and was embroiled in a slush fund scandal. So, this turnaround has very much been engineered by Takaichi and what some describe as an almost cult-like popularity,” Fok said.
Sunday’s vote comes amid record snowfall in parts of the country. With up to 70cm (27.5 inches) of snow forecast in northern and eastern regions, some voters will have to battle blizzards to cast their ballots. The election is only the third post-war vote held in February, with polls typically called during milder months.
Fok said the heavy snowfall could affect voter turnout, but “there’s no suggestion that’s going to impact the outcome of the election”.
“A lot of people feel that the opposition parties are not offering anything substantially different. And perhaps they feel that Takaichi’s economic agenda will boost the country in the long term,” he said.
“She has a growth-oriented strategy. She wants to develop sectors like AI and semiconductors, and accelerate defence spending. Voters are perhaps betting on that unlocking the keys to stagnant wage growth in this country, and in turn, [to] counter rising inflation that they are experiencing here.”
Foreign policy
A landslide win for Takaichi’s coalition would also likely prompt a shift in foreign policy.
“It will allow her to do two fundamentally important things,” said Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University.
“The first thing is to invest in the Japan-United States alliance, tighten its partnership, and secure that relationship,” he told Al Jazeera. “Second, it will allow her to take a more realistic approach to China by balancing engagement through trade and trying to deal with regional challenges, such as terrorism or climate change, and also resilience and deterrence policy.”
Nagy noted that Takaichi received the endorsement of US President Donald Trump on Thursday and called the move a “mixed blessing”.
On one hand, the Japanese public has been worried about Trump’s tariffs and his overtures to China.
“If he is going to create a G-2 relationship with China, this is going to come at the expense of Japan’s security and ordinary citizens’ idea of security in the region,” Nagy said.
On the other hand, the Trump endorsement helps because the Japanese public “are used to the strongest and most robust Japan-US alliance over the past 80 years” and believe that Takaichi will bring stability and forge a stronger relationship with Washington, he said.