The Donbas region, made up of Donetsk and Luhansk, has been the epicenter of conflict between Russia and Ukraine since 2014. Russian-backed separatists seized portions of the area following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, and tensions escalated into a full-scale war in February 2022 when Russia launched a major invasion of Ukraine.
Today, Russia controls all of Luhansk, over 80% of Donetsk, and key parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, while Ukraine holds only about 5,000 square kilometers of Donetsk. Despite ongoing talks with the United States, Moscow continues to insist that Donbas must come under Russian control, by force if necessary.
Why It Matters
Donbas is far more than just territory. It is strategically vital, rich in industry and infrastructure, and serves as a launchpad for military operations in eastern Ukraine. For Russia, controlling Donbas is about consolidating territorial gains and projecting power. For Ukraine, holding on is a matter of national sovereignty and legitimacy, refusing to reward Moscow for aggression.
The region’s fate also shapes international diplomacy. Any concession on Donbas could undermine Western support for Ukraine and set a dangerous precedent for other territorial conflicts.
Russia: Seeks complete control of Donbas to cement its presence in eastern Ukraine and strengthen leverage in any potential peace talks.
Ukraine: Determined to maintain its territorial integrity and prevent Russia from consolidating gains won through war, while continuing to rally international support.
United States: Mediating discussions and proposing potential frameworks for peace, but has ruled out formal recognition of Russian territorial claims.
Regional actors (EU, NATO, Japan, others): Closely monitoring military and political developments, balancing deterrence measures with diplomatic engagement to prevent escalation.
What’s Next
The path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Russia could escalate military operations to seize the remaining Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk, risking renewed offensives.
Diplomatic talks are likely to continue, but Moscow’s non-negotiable stance on Donbas limits prospects for compromise. Ukraine will probably maintain its call for international support, including security guarantees, to resist pressure.
Until either side shifts its red lines, Donbas will remain the central sticking point, with potential for both military escalation and high-stakes diplomatic maneuvering.
With information from Reuters.