Brazil could end year with record grain harvest

Nov. 26 (UPI) — Brazil is preparing to end the year with a grain harvest that could make history.

According to official estimates, the country could surpass 340 million metric tons of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2025, providing a significant economic boost amid global food uncertainty.

The latest figures from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics place expected production at 345.6 million metric tons in 2025, marking an increase of 18.1% over the previous season.

Officials attribute the gains to expanded planted areas, productivity improvements and relatively favorable weather conditions in the country’s main agricultural regions.

At the same time, the National Supply Company has projected a volume of 354.8 million metric tons for the 2025-26 season, supported by a 3.3% increase in cultivated area to 84.4 million hectares.

The estimated yield is 4,203 kilograms per hectare, although the agency warned that weather conditions remain critical to crop development.

Soybeans and corn will remain the main drivers of Brazil’s agricultural sector.

Brazil’s grain boom is reshaping global food costs. Backed by a powerful agribusiness lobby, Brazilian farmers have responded by increasing yields and planting in new regions, while port and rail operators race to keep goods moving, Agência Brasil reported.

However, the sector’s performance is not free of challenges. International pressure for environmental traceability and the implementation of the European Union Deforestation Regulation could raise regulatory costs for soybean and beef exporters that supply the European market.

Although the impact will be gradual, analysts warn that Brazilian producers will need to adapt to avoid losing ground in one of the world’s highest-income markets.

While producers argue that export growth supports Brazil’s trade surplus, rural employment and a relatively strong currency, environmental groups counter that expanding soybean and corn production risks driving deforestation and increasing pressure on traditional communities.

Still, the consensus among government agencies and international consultancies is that Brazil will end the year with one of the strongest harvests in its history, reinforcing its image as the “breadbasket of the world” and increasing agribusiness’s share of GDP.

Experts note that for ordinary consumers abroad, these dry-tonnage figures matter more than they appear. When Brazil exports more corn, soybeans and cornmeal, livestock feed costs can fall, which in the long run helps contain the prices of meat, dairy and cooking oil.

When the flow slows, the opposite occurs, and the effects can be felt in supermarket aisles from São Paulo to Shanghai.