Russia

The Russian and Iranian presidents met in Turkmenistan ahead of regional summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Russia will “do everything” to help end the United States-led war on Iran, Russian news agencies reported.

The two leaders met in Turkmenistan on Thursday ahead of the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a group of former Soviet nations.

“You know our position. On our part, we are ready to do everything we can to help you resolve this situation,” Interfax news agency said Putin told Pezeshkian.

“We know that Iran is making real efforts to end the conflict, which broke out through no fault of its own, no fault of Iran’s,” Putin said, according to Russian media.

Putin also noted what he called a “positive evolution” in Iran-Russia relations.

In a call on Wednesday, Putin told Pezeshkian that Moscow is prepared to mediate efforts to end the war in the Middle East, Iran’s IRNA news agency reported.

Putin and Pezeshkian also met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kyrgyzstan last month.

Strategic partnership

The two countries, which are under heavy Western sanctions, have reinforced diplomatic and military ties.

Last year, Moscow and Tehran signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” that covers areas from trade and military cooperation to science, culture and education.

Ukraine and Western countries have accused Iran of supplying Russia with Shahed drones and short-range missiles for use in the Ukraine war. Russia has also been accused of supplying data to Iran for its attacks on US targets in the Middle East.

The meeting came as Iran-US talks stand at an apparent impasse.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US will not launch an attack on Iran before the November 3 US midterm congressional elections, saying the two countries are ‌‌holding “productive” talks about ending the ongoing war.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve Russia’s offensive in Ukraine also appear deadlocked, even as both sides intensify attacks.

Syrian authorities questioned why search and rescue operations were called off before the fate of 10 sailors was known.

Syria has called for an “independent and transparent” investigation into the sinking of a cargo ship in the Black Sea, demanding answers over the fate of the ship’s 10 crew members, including nine Syrians and an Egyptian, who remain unaccounted for.

The Togolese-flagged Alfa Watan, went down in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone early on Tuesday, amid a rising number of drone strikes hitting Black Sea shipping during the Russia-Ukraine war.

It is unclear who carried out the attack.

Mazen Aloush, from the Syria’s port authority asked the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and Bulgarian authorities to find out why a search and rescue mission was called off, before the missing sailors were found.

“Their fate is still unknown” said Aloush, adding that “the reasons that led to the suspension of search and rescue operations” had to be established.

The attack on Tuesday also hit the Palau-flagged Able, setting it ablaze. Eighteen Turkish and Indian crew members were rescued from the burning vessel, while the Alfa Watan sank.

Both commercial ships were managed by Turkey-based companies, according to the Equasis merchant shipping database.

The Syrian sailors’ union said contact with the ship’s crew had been lost and no survivors had been found after search operations were halted.

Aloush condemned the targeting of a civilian commercial vessel saying it was a serious breach of maritime security and a threat to sailors.

He said Syrian General Authority for Ports and Customs was closely monitoring the incident.

He urged ⁠authorities to use all available technical means to locate and inspect the wreckage to help establish what caused the ship to sink.

He called for international and maritime bodies to strengthen measures to help commercial shipping as attacks in the Black Sea rise.

Ukraine says it has received proposals from India, Turkiye, Egypt and the United States to broker talks with Russia. The offers come as the two adversaries escalate attacks on each other’s energy and port infrastructure with their war now in its fifth year.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha revealed the four proposals at a briefing in Kyiv on Friday and singled out New Delhi’s. “The most comprehensive is India’s proposal,” he said, adding that India had signalled a willingness to play a role for the first time.

None of the proposals aims to end the war. Each seeks a narrower truce, covering energy facilities, ports or commercial shipping in the Black Sea.

Here’s what we know:

What is India proposing?

India has not made its plan public. Quoting unnamed sources, however, Indian media have reported it has three parts. According to the Hindustan Times, it would aim to protect infrastructure, keep grain and energy supplies moving through Black Sea ports, and ensure the safety of commercial shipping.

The first part – mutually halting strikes on energy facilities and ports – matches what Kyiv has been demanding. Sybiha said any deal must be a complete energy truce that covers port infrastructure as well.

The second part builds on the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Turkiye and the United Nations mediated in 2022 but Russia abandoned in 2023.

The third part, protecting merchant ships and their crews, is particularly important to India because Indian sailors have been killed or harmed on Black Sea routes.

The sources were quoted as saying India’s plan goes further than the other three proposals because it covers infrastructure and shipping together. A Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent that it incorporates elements of the Turkish, Egyptian and US initiatives. The Kyiv Post reported that Sybiha also described the plan as addressing a possible ceasefire along the front lines, although other accounts said he gave no specifics.

The proposal likely took shape during Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s first visit to Ukraine last month and in a later meeting with Sybiha at the UN General Assembly in New York, also in September. Jaishankar said New Delhi was “trying to be helpful, starting with the Black Sea safety of shipping issue”.

What do we know about the Turkish and Egyptian proposals?

Very little. Neither Ankara nor Cairo has published details. Both reportedly focus on keeping Black Sea grain supplies moving by suspending attacks on commercial shipping. Some reports said the two countries proposed a grain truce jointly while others described two separate plans.

Turkiye has done this before. With the UN, it steered the 2022 grain deal, one of the few narrow truces of the war to hold for any length of time. Ankara and the UN are now organising new Black Sea talks with a round planned for October.

Beyond its Black Sea focus, almost nothing is known about Egypt’s proposal. Its interest, however, is clear: Egypt relies on Ukraine for nearly one-third of its grain supplies.

What is the US pitching?

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Washington has proposed three steps: a mutual halt to energy strikes, a reopening of the grain corridor and a trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia, possibly in Abu Dhabi.

The latest effort began in early September when US President Donald Trump’s envoys visited Kyiv and Moscow and secured an agreement in principle for a trilateral meeting. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on September 5 while Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev visited the US twice in September.

The trilateral meeting has since been pushed back. It had been expected to take place in the United Arab Emirates in early October. Washington now wants it in late October, and people close to the talks blamed the delay on Russia.

Washington has also invited Putin to the Group of 20 summit in Miami, Florida, in December. “We hope that’s an invitation he’ll accept,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. The Kremlin said no decision has been made.

At the same time, the US is applying pressure to try to end the war. Trump recently signed a law giving him sweeping powers to sanction buyers of Russian energy.

He has also called on Ukraine to stop targeting Russian diesel facilities amid a diesel prices crisis in the US, where Trump faces tricky midterm elections next month. “Mr Zelenskyy has to do one thing,” he said on September 13. “He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia.” This drew much criticism that Trump instead should focus his comments on Russia, which began the war with its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

He is reportedly sceptical about his own government’s latest diplomatic initiative. People familiar with his thinking have told US media that he doubted Putin would agree to an energy truce before winter.

How have Russia and Ukraine responded?

Sybiha said Ukraine would agree to a truce but with conditions. It would accept an energy and Black Sea shipping ceasefire, but only as a combined package, he said.

He added that Kyiv is also open to an unconditional ceasefire along the current front lines. Zelenskyy backs the US-proposed meeting but stressed it needs “not only Ukraine but also the Russian side” to support it.

Moscow has been warm in tone but has committed to nothing. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia would welcome India’s peace efforts while Putin said Modi has “very good ideas aimed at finding mutually acceptable solutions”, but he did not elaborate.

In private, Moscow appears to have said no. A Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent that Russia has rejected India’s proposal although this has not been confirmed publicly. Ukraine’s agriculture minister said Russia had rejected every Black Sea ceasefire option the mediators have presented.

Why are Global South countries becoming more involved?

Food supplies, the lives of their citizens and fuel prices are all at stake.

“I think it’s clear to many countries that this war is not a localised war, but it’s a war that has these global consequences,” Fredrik Wesslau, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera.

Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat shipments, and their attacks on each other’s ports helped push wheat futures to a three-year high in August.

Sailors from countries with no links to the war are being killed. At least five Indian seafarers have died in strikes on Black Sea shipping in recent months along with seven Azerbaijani crew members since June. On Saturday, a Russian strike on a Liberian-flagged ship in a port in the Odesa region killed a crew member. Ukraine, for its part, has targeted tankers it links to Russia’s shadow fleet since July.

The energy war is also being felt in global markets. Ukraine reported more than 194 drone attacks on Russian refineries this year, hitting all 11 of the largest. Bloomberg News estimated that Russia’s fuel output has fallen by more than 30 percent. With Middle East supply already down as a result of the US-Israel war on Iran, global diesel markets are more exposed to the loss of Russian supplies.

Maximilian Hess, a nonresident senior fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said energy is at least as important as grain in driving the diplomatic efforts. He pointed to a “clear frustration” among many countries over high oil prices, which reflect both the Russia-Ukraine war and the crisis in the Middle East.

“Of course, Ukrainian grain is important for them, but the oil-price factor is important there as well,” he told Al Jazeera. “I think it is those commodity-shock concerns that are pushing them to re-embrace this rhetoric, rather than anything else.”

What are the challenges ahead?

Every previous attempt at diplomacy has failed to end the Russia-Ukraine war. A US-brokered, 30-day energy truce in early 2025 collapsed amid accusations of violations on both sides. At talks in Istanbul in May 2025, Zelenskyy complained that Russia had sent a junior delegation with no authority to sign a ceasefire.

In August 2025, a meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska yielded no results despite Trump claiming to be close to a deal ahead of it.

Wesslau said Washington’s efforts have faltered partly because Trump – who had boasted he would end the war within 24 hours of taking office in January 2025 – has appeared unwilling to put real pressure on Moscow. “The Russians see this, and they conclude that they can continue this war,” he said.

Deep distrust remains. Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said: “Putin never keeps agreements.”

Moscow’s actions on the ground suggest it is in no hurry, Wesslau said  “They’re trying to strangle Ukraine, strangle the economy, and make it unliveable ahead of the winter,” he said. He added that Moscow’s occasionally softer rhetoric was aimed mainly at the Trump administration and “has always proved to be a bluff”.

Russia’s terms are another obstacle. Hess said Moscow’s demands have not softened at any point since it launched the war and at times have grown. Putin has demanded all of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, including territory Russian forces have never controlled, as well as a buffer zone in northern Ukraine. Moscow is also seeking sanctions relief and military concessions for any Black Sea deal.

“I don’t think it’s a question of who actually mediates. I think it’s really a question of the calculation in Moscow,” Wesslau said. “Fundamentally, the problem is that Putin doesn’t want a ceasefire or a peace agreement. He wants to continue the war. He believes that he can win.”

Analysts said only greater economic pressure is likely to change that calculation.

Wesslau said if Europe can close down Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers, “this would be a massive blow to Russia’s war economy.” Hess said the country best placed to shift things quickly is China, rather than the US, by cutting its purchases of Russian oil. However, he added: “I don’t think Beijing is interested in doing so.”

Hess said that unless there is an outside shock, the war “is much more likely to last another four years than another four months”.

Ukrainian reports of South Korean fuel exports to Russia come amid strained tensions between Seoul and Kyiv.

South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said the government will take legal action over illegal fuel shipments to Russia if allegations from an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are confirmed.

The Foreign Ministry said on Thursday it had not confirmed whether South Korean fuel, including diesel, had been exported to Russia.

It added that exports of some products, such as diesel and jet fuel for commercial purposes, were not included in a South Korean exports control list to Russia.

On Wednesday, the South Korean presidential office dismissed a statement by Vladyslav Vlasiuk, an adviser to the Ukrainian president on sanctions policy, that 176,000 tonnes of fuel were shipped from South Korea to Russia via sanctioned tankers in July and August.

Ukraine’s top sanctions official said the alleged findings run counter to South Korea’s sanctions policy towards Russia.

“Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, our government has consistently implemented sanctions and export controls against Russia in close cooperation with the international community,” South Korean presidential spokesperson Kang Yu-jung said on Wednesday, according to the Yonhap news agency.

“We ask that Ukraine also refrain from distorting the relevant policies of the Republic of Korea without sufficient verification of the facts and making public remarks that can damage international trust,” she added.

Relations between South Korea and Ukraine have been strained for the past couple of weeks after Seoul accused Zelenskyy of having “unilaterally disclosed” to the United Nations General Assembly that Kyiv had transferred two North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea.

Seoul Korea demanded an official apology from Kyiv, claiming the Ukrainian president had breached a non-disclosure agreement. Kyiv said no such agreement was in place.

Pyongyang and Moscow, meanwhile, have deep ties, with the two countries having signed a mutual defence treaty in 2024. According to Ukrainian and South Korean estimates, about 14,000 to 15,000 North Korean soldiers were sent to support Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine.

North Korea and South Korea remain technically at war because the 1950–1953 Korean War ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty.

Published on
07/10/2026 – 17:07 GMT+2

The European Parliament has called for tougher action against China’s economic coercion and support for Russia, warning that relations with Beijing have reached a “critical point”.

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MEPs backed the resolution by a landslide on Wednesday, urging the EU to consider deploying its powerful Anti-Coercion Instrument if Beijing weaponises Europe’s dependence on critical raw materials.

The vote came as EU Trade Chief Maroš Šefčovič was flying to Beijing for crunch talks aimed at rebalancing the increasingly strained trade relationship.

October is shaping up to be a crucial month for EU-China relations. EU leaders, whose countries now all run trade deficits with China, are pressing the European Commission to deliver concrete results from negotiations with Beijing.

Tensions also extend well beyond trade. The EU has become increasingly alarmed by Beijing’s close relationship with Moscow and its role in sustaining Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“The relations have now reached a critical point, mostly due to China’s unfair economic practices such as dumping and spying and its position on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” the resolution adopted by EU lawmakers reads.

The text was backed by 454 MEPs, with 86 voting against and 110 abstaining.

Lawmakers described China’s role in the Ukraine war as that of “a decisive enabler”, pointing to “Chinese diplomatic backing and material assistance that sustains the Russian military-industrial complex”.

Pressure to use anti-coercion tool

They also call on EU countries and the Commission to “urgently” take action on “the weaponisation of critical dependencies by China.”

Europe felt the vulnerability of those dependencies in 2025, when China restricted exports of rare earths, which are vital to the EU’s automotive, defence and clean-tech industries, amid its escalating trade war with the United States.

The MEPs said the EU should consider using the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) when China instrumentalises such EU dependencies.

The ACI is an EU mechanism that allows the bloc to adopt radical measures – up to restrictions on licences and intellectual property rights – against a third country that uses economic coercion against the EU.

China’s dominance of the production and processing of strategic raw materials has become a major sticking point in trade negotiations, giving Beijing considerable leverage as Brussels seeks to curb its dependence on Chinese imports.

A Commission proposal pushing companies to diversify their suppliers in strategic sectors is in the making and should be presented by the end of the year.

The resolution comes two days after Germany and France harden their stancetowards Beijing, calling for a new trade tool that could allow the Commission to impose measures leading to “an immediate cut-off from the internal market if needed”.

Rescuers halt operation off the coast with no survivors found, following a Black Sea attack that also damaged a second vessel.

Bulgarian authorities have ended search operations after confirming no survivors were found following a drone strike that sank a ship off the country’s coast.

Drones hit two commercial vessels early on Tuesday as attacks on Black Sea shipping increase amid an intensifying Russia-Ukraine war. One caught fire, and the other sank.

“There is no trace of the sailors,” Rumen Nikolov, the head of the country’s Maritime Search and Rescue Coordination Centre, told reporters on Wednesday.

The search stopped late on Tuesday and would not continue, he added.

Eighteen Turkish and Indian crew members were rescued from the ship that caught fire, but the crew members from the vessel that sank remain missing.

Authorities have not said how many people are missing, but according to the Maritime.bg specialised website, 10 people were on board the ship.

Nikolov said the ⁠incident occurred in a so-called “responsible search and rescue zone” and not in the country’s territorial waters, which extend to 12 nautical miles off the coast.

“What was found from the sunken ship was one overturned boat, three life rafts and debris from the ship’s equipment that was floating on the surface of the sea,” he said.

Asked whether any debris from the drones had been recovered, Nikolov said: “I have no information about drone debris.”

Prime Minister Rumen Radev has described the attack as “absolutely unacceptable”.

European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen has also condemned the incident.

Bulgarian authorities have said they are not yet able to determine the origin of the drones.

A distress beacon signal from the ship that sank was received at 2:54am on Tuesday (23:54 GMT on Monday), while the distress signal from the other ship was received at 3:23am (00:23 GMT), Nikolov said.

Both commercial ships were managed by Turkiye-based companies, according to the Equasis merchant shipping database.

They were hit about 80 nautical miles (150km) east of the Bulgarian coastal town of Byala.

The strikes came a day after another ship caught fire and sank off the Romanian coast on Monday, killing two people. Ukraine blamed Russia for the drone attack.

Countries in Central Asia have begun buying oil from Iran as the Russian fuel supplies they have long depended on run dry amid Ukraine’s mounting attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to degrade Moscow’s war effort.

In August, Tajikistan announced it was receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran as Dushanbe faces uncertainty over its fuel supply from Russia. Tehran also agreed to establish a joint refinery in Kyrgyzstan in August, and supply the country with crude oil.

Moscow has been facing fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries as Russia’s war on its neighbour continues to rage.

Can the Russian fuel crisis give Iran a new oil opening in Central Asia?

Here’s what we know:

Which Central Asian countries have been affected by Russia’s fuel crisis?

Ukraine’s offensive against Russian energy infrastructure has caused panic across Central Asian countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are dependent on Moscow for oil and petroleum products.

Tajikistan has traditionally sourced up to 80 percent of its petroleum products from Russia. Kyrgyzstan also relies on petroleum product imports, sourcing more than 90 percent of its petrol from Russia.

“They’ve been hurt the most,” Galiya Ibragimova, a Moldova-based expert on Central Asia with Carnegie Politika, which has its headquarters in Berlin, told Al Jazeera in an interview in August.

Kyrgyzstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, the free trade bloc of five former Soviet nations dominated by Russia and the Kremlin’s political decisions.

Tajikistan is not a member of the group, but it bought discounted Russian fuel as “payment for political loyalty, not because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is so kind”, Ibragimova added.

Kazakhstan, meanwhile, boasts three giant, Soviet-era oil refineries. Still, fuel prices in the country have increased by 15.6 percent this year, the UlusMedia website reported on July 10.

Uzbekistan, on the other hand, is less dependent on Russian energy, with domestic production capable of reaching 100,000 tonnes of petroleum products per month, satisfying most of the country’s needs. But due to the increase in oil demand from its regional neighbours, Uzbekistan has also been forced to diversify its imports and has begun striking deals with countries like Georgia and Iraq.

Why is there a fuel crisis in Russia?

Russia has been facing a severe fuel deficit as Kyiv’s drone strikes – launched in an effort to degrade Moscow’s ability to maintain its ongoing invasion of Ukraine – have knocked out an estimated quarter to half of its total oil refining capacity.

To tackle the problem, Russia has imposed fuel rationing. Sales are often limited to about 20-30 litres (about 5-8 US gallons) per vehicle, and drivers must pump fuel strictly into vehicle tanks. Filling jerry cans is largely prohibited.

Earlier, the government banned petrol and jet fuel exports. Officials are now weighing a ban on diesel exports, too. Authorities have loosened fuel-quality regulations, temporarily allowing lower-grade fuel for the domestic market.

A state of emergency has also been declared in Russian-occupied Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. A Russian-owned oil firm in India, Nayara Energy, has reportedly sold petroleum to Russia.

While Russian President Putin acknowledges the crisis, he appears reluctant to end the war on Ukraine and insists the situation is under control.

“These attacks on our facilities certainly create problems – that is obvious. We are currently seeing a certain shortage, though I would say it is not critical,” he said earlier this year.

“First and foremost, we have to rapidly and significantly increase production of air defence systems that are most in demand. We must also continue to improve them… Repairs at refineries must be completed more quickly.”

So, how is Iran helping Central Asia?

Amid Russian fuel shortages, Central Asian countries like Tajikistan have begun striking deals with Iran.

In August, Tajikistan’s Energy and Water Resources Ministry told the Asia-Plus news agency that the country is receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran. The ministry has not disclosed the route used to transport the products, but Tajikistan expects to receive 2.55 million tonnes of oil and petroleum products from Iran.

Besides Tajikistan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian welcomed a proposal from Kyrgyzstan in August to establish a joint refinery in the Central Asian country, according to a report by Iran’s Tasnim news agency,

Under the agreement, Pezeshkian said, “The crude oil needed by the refinery can be supplied by Iran, and the products can be divided between the two sides.”

Will exporting oil to Central Asian countries help Iran?

The United States and Israel’s war on Iran has affected Tehran’s oil revenues. Data released by the government-administered Statistical Center of Iran in September showed that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 10.1 percent year-on-year between March 21 and June 20, the first quarter of the Persian calendar.

Tehran’s ability to sell crude has also been dramatically curtailed by the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports, imposed for most of the war, which began in late February.

Iranian crude and condensate loadings collapsed from about two million barrels per day (bpd) in March to roughly 740,000bpd in July and just 220,000-255,000bpd in August, according to estimates from Kpler and Vortexa.

TankerTrackers.com told the Reuters news agency in September that 29 tankers, carrying 36.11 million barrels of crude, were trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Vortexa estimated that total Iranian crude afloat had fallen from 135 million barrels at the end of July to 107 million barrels by late August.

Amid these challenges, Iran has been scrambling to find new countries to trade oil with. Russian fuel shortages have opened up new opportunities for Iran in Central Asia, at least in the short term, according to analysts.

How does Iranian oil reach Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan?

Iran does not share a border with either country.

To get to Tajikistan, Iranian “oil and refined products have to cross Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan by rail”, said Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs.

To get to Kyrgyzstan, Iranian oil would also need to pass through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Is trading oil with Iran logistically sustainable for Central Asia?

It is unlikely, Schneider said.

“This opportunity [for Iran] depends on Ukraine continuing to hit Russian refineries, which seems unlikely, both given the waning of Ukraine’s strike capability and the US government’s demand to stop the attacks as they put too much strain on global oil markets,” he told Al Jazeera.

He noted that US President Donald Trump has pressed his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, repeatedly in September for an “energy truce” with Russia, since diesel prices have become a political problem for Trump ahead of the November midterm elections in the US.

“Those truces have so far collapsed within hours, but the direction is clear. Once the strikes stop, or once Russia repairs its plants, Russian fuel will come back to Central Asia duty-free under Eurasian Economic Union arrangements, and Iran will struggle to compete on price,” he said.

Logistics also favour Russia with respect to importing oil to countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, he said.

Unlike Iran, Russia shares a border with both.

“Tajikistan’s own request [for oil] would need around 51,000 rail tank cars, and its main refinery at Dangara has never operated commercially at scale. Russia, by contrast, has decades’ worth of logistics infrastructure, pipelines, rail links, and supply contracts into the region,” Schneider said.

Is Central Asia a big enough market to compensate for Iran’s Hormuz losses?

No, according to Schneider.

Tajikistan’s total demand, Schneider said, was about 50,000bpd.

That is a drop in the ocean compared with the 1.7 million bpd Iran exported by sea a year ago. China reported $9.96bn in two-way trade with Iran in 2025, a figure that does not include some $31.2bn in Iranian oil shipments, according to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“This suggests that Central Asia can be a useful outlet for Iranian diesel and gasoline, but it cannot replace the Chinese market,” Schneider said.

For Tehran, Central Asia’s importance depends on how the US-Israel war on Iran develops, he said, adding that Tehran also needs to stay on good terms with Russia, with which it has a deep strategic partnership.

“Iran cannot afford to be seen as poaching Russian customers too aggressively, so it will present itself as a stopgap supplier, which, again, limits how much it can earn there,” he said.

What other risks does Central Asia face in buying Iranian oil?

Schneider warned that Central Asian nations could be hit with Washington’s secondary sanctions on Iran.

“Legally, US secondary sanctions apply to any foreign company or bank that conducts a significant transaction in Iranian petroleum, wherever it is based, and the Treasury expanded the list of sanctionable conduct in August. A Treasury official has already warned publicly that anyone in this trade ‘incurs that risk themselves’,” he noted.

But Schneider said that, politically, the US sanctioning Central Asian governments is unlikely.

“Central Asia is the arena of a new ‘Great Game’ between Russia, China and the United States, and Washington is courting the region harder than at any point since the 1990s, chiefly for its critical minerals. Kazakhstan alone holds about half of the minerals the US classifies as critical, including uranium and tungsten,” he said.

“Sanctioning a Central Asian government for buying fuel from Iran would push them straight back into closer ties to Russia and China,” he noted.

“What I would expect instead are targeted designations of individual traders, rail and logistics operators and smaller banks, combined with quiet pressure on the region’s correspondent banks. That alone is enough to raise the cost and slow the trade, but will come at the price of these countries redoubling their efforts to decouple economically and financially from the US.”

NEW YORK — The Russian oligarch who helped bankroll Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding celebration says the president’s eldest son has paid back the money.

“Yes, he did,” Umar Kremlev told an International Boxing Association press conference in Istanbul on Tuesday. “He did repay the money I spent on the present.” Still, he said he felt the repayment was unnecessary.

“Frankly speaking, I do not understand why he decided to do so,” he went on. “There are all kinds of events organized by all kinds of people. It is as if I invite you to come and visit my country house. Would you expect me to issue an invoice to them afterward?” Speaking through an interpreter, he said that would be “ridiculous.”

ProPublica, a nonprofit investigative website, reported last month that Kremlev, who has close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, “footed the bill for hundreds of thousands of dollars of wedding expenses” when Trump Jr. married socialite Bettina Anderson in the Bahamas in May. That included paying to rent one of two private islands where the three-day party was held.

In a subsequent post on her Instagram page signed by the couple, Bettina Trump wrote that they had been married “surrounded ONLY by our family,” but that Kremlev, head of the boxing association, was a “dear friend” who “very generously hosted two incredible nights of celebrations for us AFTER our wedding.”

President Trump, who did not attend the nuptials, previously defended the arrangement but told reporters that the money would be paid back.

“It’s totally allowed,” he said. “But, as I understand it, he paid them back.”

“That’s very common,” he added, “I’ve given wedding parties to numerous people.”

Kremlev, who was recently honored with the Order of Friendship by Putin, also played down the significance, saying the celebration was “a shared event” and “people blew it out of proportion.”

“I mean, why can’t we be friends? We are just friends,” he went on. “We are simply friends and what unites us is love for sports.”

The focus on Kremlev comes as Russia remains at war with Ukraine following its invasion in 2022 and as Trump has failed to broker a promised peace deal between the nations.

Trump Jr. has previously been scrutinized over his ties to Russia. During the 2016 campaign, his meeting with a Russian attorney in Trump Tower to discuss potentially incriminating information about his father’s then-Democratic opponent was a critical element of investigations into whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Russia to meddle in the election to help Trump win.

Colvin writes for the Associated Press.

Russian authorities quarantine hospital, monitor 200 contacts after suspected pneumonic plague death in Siberia.

President Donald Trump says the United States is ready to help Russia with a suspected pneumonic plague outbreak.

“We are looking at it very strongly. We just heard about it,” Trump said, adding that he had not spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin about it but is prepared to offer US support.

“It’s a disease we used to be able to control,” Trump said. “Even with great advancement, the germs have really become relatively stronger than they were, and things that used to work on pneumonia don’t work anymore … anyone that has that kind of problem, we will help.”

The World Health Organization (WHO) said based on unofficial information it has received, the “public health risk to the general population appears to be low”.

Earlier on Monday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed the danger as well. “I don’t think it’s cause for alarm, but it is cause for focus and a cause to just keep an eye on it,” Rubio said.

Russian authorities have quarantined a hospital and are tracing the contacts of an employee at a plague research institute in the remote Siberian region of Irkutsk who died of a suspected pneumonic plague infection. Local media identified the employee as 28-year-old laboratory technician Darya Shipilova.

Official details about the incident have been limited, and Russian media reports say authorities in Irkutsk have placed nearly 200 people under medical observation.

On Sunday, Russia’s official TASS news agency reported that the country’s consumer protection agency, Rospotrebnadzor, said an employee at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and the Far East was diagnosed with “pneumonia of unknown aetiology” or origin. The agency also said it had expanded sample testing from the patient and found no microorganisms associated with her work.

On Saturday, the governor of neighbouring Buryatia region said in a post on his Telegram channel that a woman in Irkutsk had “died, maybe of the plague”.

In a statement to Al Jazeera, a US State Department official said: “We encourage Russian authorities to share accurate information quickly and openly.”

Pneumonic plague is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, usually found in small mammals and their fleas. According to the WHO, the plague is highly infectious and can be fatal if not treated early.

The plague ⁠comes in three forms affecting different parts of the body. Pneumonic plague, an infection of the lungs, triggers the patient to cough out infectious airborne droplets.

If identified quickly, antibiotics can treat the disease. Left untreated, it can be fatal in one to six days.

The incident is the latest suspected Russian drone incursion, as fears grow that the war in Ukraine could spill over.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has blamed a Russian drone attack for the sinking of a ship in Romania’s section of the Black Sea.

Romania reported that two people were killed and 11 rescued when a grain ship caught fire and sank in its waters on Monday. The Ukrainian president’s claim suggests the incident is the latest in a series of suspected incursions along NATO’s eastern flank, and will fuel concerns that Moscow’s war in Ukraine could spill over.

“A horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel in neutral waters carrying corn and owned by Turkiye,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media.

According to the Romanian Ministry of Internal Affairs, the coastguard was alerted at about 11am local time (08:00 GMT) that a fire had broken out on the ship, adding that it was in the country’s “exclusive economic zone”.

The ministry did not identify the cause of the fire.

Azerbaijani and Indian citizens were on board the ship at the time of the attack, it is reported.

Romania is among several NATO members to have reported incursions this year, as Russia and Ukraine have increasingly turned to launches of hundreds of drones and missiles.

In May, a Russian drone hit an apartment building. In June, a stray Ukrainian maritime drone exploded in the Black Sea port of Constanta. In July, Bucharest summoned Russia’s ambassador after air defences intercepted three drones within the span of one week.

Incursions by Russian drones into eastern European airspace are seen by some as a test of NATO and the European Union’s defences and response capabilities.

The Baltic states have also seen drones enter their airspace throughout the war, with airspace violations contributing to the collapse of Latvia’s government in late May after a dispute over how to respond to the incursions.

The incursions have also prompted Poland to bolster its air defence posture after accusing Moscow of violating its airspace in September. Suspected drones were shot down twice in Moldova.

Romania’s Ministry of National Defence said the Romanian Naval Forces had destroyed nine drifting sea mines in the Black Sea since the start of the war.

Sixty-nine years ago this day, the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1, the first satellite to orbit Earth, opening the Space Age and setting off a race with the United States.

Ten years later, on October 10, 1967, the Outer Space Treaty came into force.

In 1999, the United Nations started observing World Space Week – from October 4 to 10 – to celebrate the contribution of space technology for the benefit of humanity. Schools, space agencies, museums and astronomy clubs around the world hold stargazing nights, science classes, exhibitions and talks by astronauts and scientists.

Today, more than 80 countries have put satellites into orbit, and people from over 50 of those have travelled to space.

In this visual explainer, Al Jazeera looks at which countries have done so, how many space travellers have been women, and what comes next for human spaceflight.

The first man in space – Yuri Gagarin

On April 12, 1961, Soviet astronaut Yuri Gagarin became the first human in space.

On board the Vostok 1 spacecraft, he completed one orbit of Earth at about 27,400km/h (17,025mph) during a 108-minute flight. He later ejected from the spacecraft and landed by parachute.

The mission demonstrated that humans could survive launch, weightlessness and re-entry, giving the Soviet Union a major early victory in the Cold War Space Race.

Six years later, on October 10, 1967, the Outer Space Treaty entered into force. Signed by the US, the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union, it established that space should be explored and used peacefully and that no country could claim it as territory.

Less than two years later, NASA’s Apollo 11 mission landed the first humans on the moon. On July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong became the first person to walk on its surface.

Where does space begin?

There is no single agreed boundary for where space begins: most international bodies use the Karman line, 100km (62 miles) above Earth, while the US military, NASA and the Federal Aviation Administration count anyone who flies above 80km (50 miles).

Either way, it is closer than it sounds: if Earth were the size of an apple, space would begin about as far from the surface as the thickness of its skin.

Which countries have sent people to space?

By the Karman line measure, at least 746 people from 52 countries have travelled to space, including professional astronauts and paying tourists.

Some hold dual nationality, and some flew for countries that no longer exist, such as the Soviet Union.

The graphic below breaks down space travellers by country.

Two countries still dominate the list. The US has sent 369 people to space, and the Soviet Union and Russia have sent 138 combined. China, the third country to launch people on its own rockets, has sent 29.

One in seven space travellers is a woman

Space remains a male-dominated frontier. Science fiction may be full of women commanding starships, but of the 746 people who have travelled to space, only 112, or 15 percent, have been women, about one in seven.

Soviet astronaut Valentina Tereshkova became the first woman to travel to space in June 1963. The US did not follow for another 20 years, until Sally Ride flew in June 1983.

The share of women is rising, though, largely because of commercial flights. More than half of the women who have flown since 2020 went up as paying passengers or guests on Blue Origin’s suborbital rocket.

The typical space traveller is 40

Most people who have flown to space were in their 30s or 40s on their first flight, which together account for 85 percent. The median age is 40. Commercial flights have widened that range.

The youngest traveller, Oliver Daemen, was 18 when he flew in 2021. The oldest, Ed Dwight, was 90 years and eight months old when he flew in 2024, about two months older than William Shatner had been on his flight three years earlier.

What comes next for human spaceflight?

In April 2026, the Artemis II crew flew around the moon and reached about 406,771km (252,756 miles) from Earth, breaking the distance record set by Apollo 13 in 1970.

Next is Artemis III in 2027, a rehearsal in Earth orbit to test docking with lunar landers built by SpaceX and Blue Origin. NASA is targeting 2028 for Artemis IV, which aims to land astronauts near the moon’s south pole, the first crewed landing since 1972.

India plans its first crewed Gaganyaan flight in 2027, making it the fourth country to launch people on its own rocket. China aims to land astronauts on the moon around 2030.

Novak Djokovic to face Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals in Beijing after the Russian defeats Francisco Cerundolo.

Novak Djokovic has brushed aside ongoing injury-related struggles and produced a trademark comeback to defeat top seed Alexander Zverev 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 for a place in the China Open semifinals, extending his unbeaten record in the tournament.

Playing the ATP 500 event in Beijing for the first time since 2015, the six-time champion was pushed to the limit by reigning French Open and US Open champion Zverev, who delivered 19 aces in the match on Sunday.

Meeting for the first time in nearly 16 months, Djokovic struggled to contain the German’s power in the early stages as the 29-year-old Zverev claimed the opening set, but the Serb gradually worked his way into the match and refused to let his opponent pull away.

“I had a terrible start – two double faults at the beginning. It was quite cold, and honestly, I didn’t feel warmed up, but my fault,” Djokovic said.

“I gave him an early break, and then it was hard to come back in the first set.”

The contest was briefly interrupted by a moment of controversy when Zverev argued that the electronic advertising signage had gone dark during a rally and requested a video review after losing the point.

Replays showed a section of the signage had switched off although not as Zverev was missing the forehand. The chair umpire ordered the point to be replayed, prompting a frustrated exchange from Djokovic.

‘Held my nerves’

The turning point came late in the second set when Djokovic broke at 5-4 to level the match, shifting the momentum in his favour after a tightly contested battle.

With little separating the pair in the third, the Serbian struck again at 5-4 on the Zverev serve, securing the decisive break to seal the victory in two hours and 35 minutes.

“I was trying to be aggressive and come to the net and change up the pace, not giving the same pattern,” Djokovic said.

“I am just glad that I held my nerves, played good shots at important moments, 5-4 in the second and third.”

The pair had not met since Roland Garros in 2025, where Djokovic won in four sets, and Sunday’s encounter again highlighted the Serb’s ability to deliver under pressure despite a season disrupted by physical issues.

With the victory, Djokovic moved a step closer to a seventh China Open title and an elusive first trophy of the year while denying Zverev another opportunity to strengthen his bid for the world number one ranking.

Djokovic will face Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals after the Russian defeated Francisco Cerundolo 7-6(4), 6-3 earlier.

Rybakina withdraws from Wuhan after China Open exit

World number one Elena Rybakina withdrew from this month’s Wuhan Open due to a foot injury, tournament organisers said on Sunday, a day after the Kazakh suffered a shock defeat in her opening match at the China Open.

Rybakina, who lost to world number 118 Alina Charaeva in Beijing, said she would take time away from competition to recover.

“I’m very sorry to the fans who were looking forward to seeing me play,” Rybakina said in a story posted on the tournament’s Instagram account.

“I’ll take some time to rest and recover. Thank you for your understanding and continued support.”

The 27-year-old has been managing a lingering lower leg and foot problem that also forced her to retire from her Cincinnati quarterfinal against Iga Swiatek in August.

Despite the setback, Rybakina recovered in time for the US Open, where she claimed her third Grand Slam title, rose to world number one and became the first player to qualify for the season-ending WTA Finals.

Rybakina is next expected to compete this month in the Ningbo Open in China, where she will try to defend her title.

The Wuhan Open is scheduled to take place from October 12 to 18.

A Russian agency links the lab worker’s death to ‘pneumonia of unknown’ origin.

An employee of a Russian anti-plague institute in the remote Siberian region of Irkutsk has reportedly died of a suspected pneumonic plague infection, according to a United States official.

“We are aware of reports of a fatal case of suspected pneumonic plague in Irkutsk Oblast, Russia. We are monitoring the situation closely with the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] and our other interagency partners,” a State Department official told Al Jazeera

“Many details have not been confirmed. We encourage Russian authorities to share accurate information quickly and openly,” the official said.

Alexei Tsydenov, the governor of the Buryatia region, said in a post on his Telegram channel on October 3 that a woman in the neighbouring Irkutsk region had “died, maybe of the plague”.

Russia’s official TASS news agency reported on Sunday that the country’s consumer watchdog, Rospotrebnadzor, said in a statement that an employee of the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and the Far East had been diagnosed with “pneumonia of unknown aetiology”.

The watchdog also said it expanded testing of samples from the patient and found no microorganisms associated with her professional activities.

Pneumonic plague is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, usually found in small mammals and their fleas. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the plague is highly infectious and can be fatal if not treated early.

Local media named the woman who died as 28-year-old laboratory technician Darya Shipilova.

Media reports say that authorities in Siberia’s Irkutsk region have placed nearly 200 people under medical observation.

Trilateral talks could happen this month in UAE or another US-proposed venue, says the president.

Ukraine is ready to hold trilateral talks with the United States and Russia this month, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.

The Ukrainian president made the comments on Sunday during a news conference alongside German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Kyiv. He said Ukraine supports a swift timeline for returning to talks to try to end the war fought for over four and a half years.

US efforts to broker a ceasefire have been paused since Washington launched its war on Iran. However, Washington is now pushing for technical-level talks by the end of October, Zelenskyy said.

He confirmed earlier reports that the United Arab Emirates, which has hosted previous talks, could again be the setting for a meeting.

“I confirmed to [the US] that our side is ready to support this timeline,” Zelenskyy said, adding that Kyiv is open to meeting in the UAE or “another country proposed by the American side”.

Washington had also been in touch with Moscow about the plan, Zelenskyy said. The Kremlin said last month that it did not rule out the possibility of three-way talks this month.

Despite suggestions of their willingness to discuss an end to the conflict, both Russia and Ukraine have also said they will ramp up long-range attacks on military and related targets.

Moscow has said it is targeting Ukraine’s energy sector as winter approaches. Last year, similar attacks knocked out power and heating for days on end as temperatures plummeted to minus 20C.

Zelenskyy on Sunday said he was “amazed” by Russia’s “savage desire to escalate the situation every day”.

He yet again accused Moscow of targeting “civilian infrastructure, including data centres and mobile network facilities”.

“Honestly speaking, I am not surprised by this approach to the war – by Russia’s hatred towards Ukraine – but I am surprised by the specific tactics used”, the Ukrainian leader said.

Alongside the return of the US to efforts to broker a ceasefire, India on Sunday said that it aims to step up its efforts to play a larger role in mediating an end to the conflict.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in New Delhi, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said his country had become more involved in recent months, specifically regarding shipping in the Black Sea, which has been plagued by mines and attacks on commercial vessels.

India was also “going beyond that,” said Jaishankar, including with discussions on grain and energy exports and “on non-attack possibilities,” he said.

German chancellor visits Kyiv amid air raid sirens, pledging strong support as Russian strikes disrupt the capital.

Russia has struck a key bridge in Kyiv just as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in the Ukrainian capital to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The unannounced visit, marked by the sound of air sirens and explosions, came on Sunday to underscore Germany’s support for the nation at a time when Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities are increasing.

In a written statement, Merz said he “travelled to Kyiv today because Ukraine needs all our support in the coming weeks”.

“If Russia is not stopped, its war machine will sooner or later turn against us,” he said.

Merz and Zelenskyy met at the National Academy of Sciences, which was struck by a Russian drone on September 28.

Zelenskyy told Merz that Kyiv’s citizens are going through “terrible nights and days” due to the ongoing Russian attacks.

Merz was accompanied by his economy minister, as well as executives from several large German companies, such as Siemens Energy and Diehl Defence.

Ukraine and Germany are also expected to finalise a deal to produce drones and other weapons together that can travel more than 600 miles (965.6km) in an effort to strike deeper into Russia.

Germany has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters. In April, the two countries signed a military pact worth more than $4bn. On Sunday, a $1.1bn military aid package is set to be announced, alongside $394m to repair damage to Ukraine’s energy sector.

Merz’s visit comes a day after Russia warned foreign diplomats and nationals to leave the capital to avoid getting hurt.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence promised to intensify strikes on Ukraine after Zelenskyy said in an interview with the Reuters news agency that it is doubling down on targeting Russian oil refineries after several civilians were killed and wounded over the weekend.

The strike that hit the Northern Bridge over the Dnipro River on Sunday also damaged a road and the supply of hot water in the area, according to a social media statement from Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. It is the second bridge in the capital to be hit this weekend.

Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine is in its fifth year. Both sides have increased the number of drone and missile attacks on infrastructure, logistics and military sites in recent months.

After the Pivdennyi Bridge was attacked, passengers described how dust from a blast wave entered their carriage through the ventilation system.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Putin had decided that there were “no rules now” when attacking Ukraine.

In an interview with the Financial Times, he said: “The Russians have failed to occupy us. So now they are carrying out massive attacks and mass killings.”

He added: “They want to destroy our bridges… our data centres, the internet, mobile networks, hospitals, kindergartens, schools, universities – everything. They want people to flee their cities.”

Putin on Thursday insisted that Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian economic targets were a direct response to Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s oil refineries and its ships in the Black Sea.

“Now from every direction we’re receiving calls ‘let’s stop’. But they started it,” Putin said after a wide-ranging speech at the Valdai foreign policy forum.

The Kremlin leader admitted Kyiv had “got some results” from its refinery attacks and Russia had lost about 1% of its GDP. Ukraine maintains it began attacking Russian oil infrastructure because it helps the Kremlin finance the war.

Russia has targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, ramping up attacks every winter since Putin launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Latvia is not expected to shift its pro-Europe and pro-Ukraine trajectory, but coalition negotiations could be complex.

Polls have opened in Latvia for an election taking place against the backdrop of perceived security threats from Russia and a nationwide cost-of-living squeeze.

Saturday’s vote is the first electoral test for Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs after coming to power in May this year when his predecessor resigned due to a backlash from stray drone incursions from Ukraine.

Kulbergs, whose right-wing United List party is currently polling at about 20 percent, is expected to hold onto his position, but the decline of two allies in his current coalition means he is set for a complicated negotiation over the makeup of any future government.

Polls opened at 05:00 GMT and will close at 17:00 GMT. The results are not expected to change Latvia’s pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course.

About 1.5 million people are eligible to vote in the country’s 11th parliamentary election since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Latvian politics are highly fragmented, with parties rarely seeing above 20 percent vote share and coalitions being the norm.

This year, 14 electoral lists are contesting the election, but polls indicate only seven are likely to enter parliament, with the rest expected to fail to meet the minimum 5 percent vote threshold.

Rising living costs, low wages, strains on the healthcare system and long-term population decline have all featured prominently in campaign debates.

Fragmented political parties

Most parties in Latvia are pro-Ukraine; however, the populist Sovereign Power party – which says it wants Ukraine to win but argues money spent supporting Kyiv would be better spent at home – looks likely to become the country’s second-biggest party, with more than 9 percent of the vote. Most other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with Sovereign Power.

Latvia First, a pro-Ukraine and populist nationalist party currently polling at about 9 percent, could be a potential coalition partner for PM Kulbergs.

The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party, are polling at 6 percent.

Ethnic Russians make up roughly one in four Latvian citizens, but their vote, which has traditionally been cast along identity-based lines, looks set to be made according to economic and social issues.

Latvia is the poorest of the Baltic states, and it has sharply increased its defence spending since Russia invaded Ukraine, now allocating nearly 5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defence.

Putin warned the West he would deploy nuclear weapons if necessary to defend the Russian Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out a ceasefire on long-range strikes with Ukraine as Moscow steps up its campaign of aerial attacks on Kyiv.

“We are told: ‘Let them stop striking your refineries, and you will stop striking their ships.’ It is simply ridiculous,” Putin said on Thursday at the Valdai political forum in Moscow.

The remarks followed a meeting between United States President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York on September 22, when Zelenskyy said Kyiv was ready to cease strikes on Russian oil refineries and other energy facilities if Moscow also stopped its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Speaking at the forum of the Moscow-based think tank, Putin said Ukraine had “partially achieved its objectives” with ⁠these strikes, with attacks on Russian ⁠oil refineries having cost the country 1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), but added that Russia ⁠was now responding in kind.

Russia has ramped up long-range strikes, targeting Ukraine’s steel companies as well as supply chains, notably in the rail sector. Ukraine accuses Moscow of deliberately hitting civilian targets and keeping Kyiv on a near-constant state of alert as it braces for another tough winter.

A Russian drone struck a school in Kyiv on Thursday, according to city officials, as the Ukrainian capital endured relentless aerial attacks. No casualties were reported as children and staff at the school were in shelters when the drone hit.

Putin added that Russia would prefer to end the conflict in Ukraine through talks and wanted it to ⁠be a neutral ⁠country after the end ⁠of hostilities.

The nuclear option

He warned the West not to escalate the standoff over Ukraine by threatening the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland and Lithuania, and pledged to defend it with nuclear weapons if necessary.

“If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation – in this case, we are referring to Kaliningrad, and perhaps other territories as well – the question of the Russian Federation deploying all the weapons at our country’s disposal will, of course, inevitably and immediately be on the agenda,” he said.

Putin’s comments followed a diplomatic note which NATO said this week it had received from Russia, warning the Western military alliance it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if NATO attempted to cut off Russia’s Baltic exclave.

Putin warned that cycles of escalation in international conflict ⁠could quickly lead to dangerous scenarios. “We must realise that the moment when nothing can be changed any longer may come very quickly and unexpectedly for everyone. The logic of escalating, increasingly harsh retaliatory measures leads to a fatal point of no return,” ⁠he said.

On the contrary, in the event of a “favourable scenario”, Putin said the assets of Western companies that Moscow had seized could potentially be returned. Putin last month ordered the seizure of businesses and assets of Swiss food giant Nestle, French retailer Auchan, the former Leroy Merlin DIY chain and German wholesaler and food retailer Metro.

As US President Donald Trump announced a $15bn steel megaplant while seated at his Oval Office desk on Monday, he had a lineup of mostly US politicians standing behind him – from cabinet members to elected representatives from Iowa, where the mill is to be built. There was one exception: an Indian man with a receding hairline and a lilac pocket handkerchief, standing behind the US president’s right shoulder.

Ravi Ruia is a cofounder of the Essar Group, which owns Mesabi Metallics, the Minnesota-based firm that’s building the steel mill, which is expected to be the United States’s largest once it is complete. A decade earlier, in October 2016, his brother Shashi was in the photo frame with a different president during the signing of another major deal: Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Steel and metallics aren’t Essar’s only association with minerals and natural resources. The conglomerate had been involved for years with oil, before it sold one of India’s largest private oil refineries to a Russian-led consortium in 2016 for nearly $13bn. Essar Oil was rebranded as Nayara Energy.

Today, Nayara Energy is half-owned by Russian gas major Rosneft, which is under heavy US and European sanctions over Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Nayara has also emerged as a supplier of petroleum products to Russia at a time when the country is facing a fuel crisis following multiple Ukrainian attacks on its oil and gas depots.

And as part of a 99-year deal, Nayara is continuing to use Essar’s branding in India, where the company runs thousands of petrol stations. Nayara is under European Union sanctions.

The White House is touting the Iowa steel project, unveiled just before the US midterm elections, as a major economic win for Americans, promising hundreds of jobs and billions of dollars in revenue. And there is no evidence that the steel project is in violation of any Russia-specific US sanctions.

But Trump’s announcement of a mega project with an Indian firm closely tied to Russian investments under Western sanctions underscores how the US has struggled to isolate Moscow economically despite an unprecedented economic pressure campaign.

And the timing of the steel mill announcement raises questions, because it comes days after Trump signed a law that empowers him to punish countries that buy Russian oil with up to 100 percent tariffs. India is Russia’s second-largest oil buyer. But the legacy Indian conglomerate that best epitomises the country’s links to Russian energy is now also behind the US’s biggest steel factory.

What’s the steel factory project about?

The new project would integrate its iron ore mining operations in Minnesota’s Mesabi Iron Range with the upcoming steel complex in Iowa.

The White House and the company’s announcements said that the Iowa steel plant is expected to create at least 1,750 permanent jobs – “while continuing to work with suppliers and businesses throughout Iowa and the Midwest” – and support up to 6,000 construction jobs.

Washington also noted that the mill will produce 7.5 million tonnes of steel per year in its first phase, expected to rise to 10 million tonnes. First steel production is expected in 2030.

The first phase of the project is expected to generate $95bn in total economic impact during construction and its first 10 years of operation, according to the White House.

Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, told the reporters that “these are your 232 tariffs, the steel tariffs at work.” He added: “Without those tariffs, this mine and steel plant doesn’t get built.”

Trump chipped in, too. “Soon after my inauguration, I imposed powerful 50 percent tariffs on all foreign steel, and now our steel industry is roaring back to life,” Trump said. “Everyone’s building their plant here because they don’t want to pay tariffs.”

But the steel project is also evidence of how countries and companies have skirted US economic pressure – and how it gives them leverage to continue to do so.

What are Essar’s ties to Russia?

Essar Oil, the group’s energy arm, began refining crude in 2008 at its refinery in Vadinar on the coast of the western Indian state of Gujarat.

But by 2016, the company was in deep debt, listed as a defaulter by the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank, and desperately looking for a buyer who would take over its oil operations. The timing was opportune. President Putin in Russia was at the time trying to get Rosneft, his country’s energy giant, to offload some stakes in exchange for foreign capital.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi played matchmaker, helping stitch together a series of deals between 2014 and 2016 that helped Rosneft and Essar. First, Indian public sector oil majors bought stakes in Rosneft, giving it the cash it needed. Rosneft, in turn, joined hands with other investors to buy the Vadinar refinery, freeing Essar from its debts.

Essar Oil became Nayara Energy – a company in which Rosneft owns a 49 percent stake, and United Capital Partners, a Russian asset management company, owns another 49 percent. The buyers paid Essar $12.9bn for the deal. As part of the agreement, Nayara got to use Essar’s branding – including on thousands of petrol stations across India – for 99 years.

Is Nayara under Western sanctions?

Yes. The European Union imposed sanctions on Nayara in July last year as part of the broader 18th package of sanctions against Russian oil.

The sanctions banned the import of petroleum products processed using Russian crude oil and restricted the refinery’s access to EU shipping insurance, as well as financial and other services.

Nayara’s Vadinar refinery in western India has been processing only Russian oil since other suppliers backed out following the sanctions. Since then, Nayara has relied on international traders to import crude and export refined fuels.

In July this year, Nayara Energy sold petroleum to Russia as Ukrainian attacks targeted oil refineries across the country, triggering a fuel crisis.

In recent months, Ukrainian forces have targeted Russian oil facilities, setting them ablaze and causing long lines for fuel across the country, including in the capital, Moscow. The fuel crisis, unprecedented for Russia, a country that is one of the world’s biggest energy producers, has led to rationing in many regions.

These Russian links have brought Nayara Energy under wider scrutiny, prompting companies, including SAP, to suspend services to the refiner, citing sanctions and obligations under EU law.

Nayara challenged the move in the Delhi High Court, which ordered SAP India to restore its services earlier this month.

Are Essar or the steel plant violating any sanctions?

While Nayara is under EU sanctions, Essar does not face any US or EU sanctions.

In October 2016, after Essar struck its deal with Rosneft and United Capital Partners to sell the Vadinar refinery, the US – at the time under the Barack Obama administration – said that the agreement was not in violation of any sanctions.

“I don’t think we see any violation of any US-EU sanctions stemming from this deal,” State Department spokesperson Mark Toner said at the time. Essar also said that the deal was compliant with US sanctions.

There is no evidence of any sanctions breach in Essar’s investment in Mesabi, or in the planned investment to set up the steel factory in Iowa.

But Essar’s relations with Russia have nevertheless attracted scrutiny, including in the United Kingdom, where the Ruia brothers have long had major investments.

At the time of the sale of the Vadinar refinery to Russian buyers, the Russian bank VTB also gave Essar a $3.9bn loan for debt reconstruction.

The bank was hit by major US and EU sanctions in February 2022, right after Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine. Essar, reporting published in April 2026 by The Guardian and investigative journalism platform SourceMaterial, showed, moved the VTB loan to Mauritius, a tax haven, allegedly to avoid the sanctions. Essar owns the Stanlow oil refinery in the UK.

Why is the timing of the steel plant announcement significant?

Trump’s Republican Party is heading for crucial midterm congressional elections in November, while his approval rating has been plumbing all-time lows in the face of voter concerns about inflation, the cost of living, and the war on Iran.

In his second term, Trump has made tariffs and a revival of US manufacturing a cornerstone of his economic vision, claiming that higher barriers to imports will drive investment back to the US.

Moreover, Washington introduced legislation that would allow the president to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on imports from countries that continue economic engagement with Russia or Iran, aiming to put pressure on countries that continue buying Russian energy.

New Delhi is particularly exposed since it became one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian crude after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Trump imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian imports in 2025 over the issue, before removing it in February 2026 after India committed to stop buying Russian crude.

Russia has remained India’s largest source of crude, although purchases have declined as the threat of US penalties has grown. The news agency Reuters reported that India imported approximately 2.1 million barrels per day of Russian crude in August.

There is also a recent parallel to underscore the incentives for investment in Trump’s US. In May this year, Washington moved to dismiss the criminal fraud and bribery charges against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, while his lawyers had told the Justice Department that Adani was prepared to invest $10bn in the United States. A federal judge subsequently dismissed the criminal case in August.

Tallinn accuses Moscow of responsibility for fire at Estonian company Milrem Robotics, a supplier of unmanned ground vehicles to Ukraine.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has accused Russia of “sabotage” following an August arson attack on a defence company, Milrem Robotics, a claim the Kremlin rejected.

“We can conclude with certainty that the arson attack … in Tallinn was an act of sabotage ordered by the special services of the Russian Federation,” Tsahkna wrote on X on Tuesday.

He added that the perpetrators of the attack had been apprehended and “no longer pose a threat”, and that Estonia had summoned the Russian ambassador.

“This act of sabotage is part of Russia’s broader campaign across Europe, aimed at intimidating us and weakening our support for Ukraine,” he wrote.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the allegation.

“Such statements are baseless, ill-considered, have absolutely no relation to reality, and lack any form of reasoning. Consequently, we cannot and will not take such statements seriously,” he told reporters.

Estonia, a European Union and NATO member state along the alliance’s eastern flank, has accused Moscow of several hybrid provocations since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Along with its neighbours Latvia and Lithuania, it has ramped up its investment in defence in the years since and remains a staunch ally of Kyiv.

Support from allies

NATO chief Mark Rutte, speaking to journalists after Estonia’s accusation, said that “Russia continues its reckless campaign of hostile actions against NATO allies. It is trying to weaken our resolve and stop our support for Ukraine”.

“But Russia is failing. It is failing on the battlefield in Ukraine, and it is failing to undermine our unity and support for Ukraine,” he added.

The attack was condemned by several of Estonia’s allies, who also reaffirmed their support for Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on X that Paris was in full solidarity with Estonia, adding: “The proliferation of these hostile acts reflects a dangerous headlong rush by Russia – one that will only lead it into a dead end.”

“Russia’s fingerprints are all over” the attack, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys wrote on X, adding that Moscow’s “hostile activities do not stop at Ukraine’s borders”.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics added that “more support for Ukraine … will be needed and must be provided”.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson called Estonia’s attribution of the attack “extremely serious”, and said the pattern of the attacks was “directed against Europe as a whole”.

Russian forces have again struck the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, hours after a drone hit the National Academy of Sciences in the historic centre of the city, killing at least two people.

Explosions were heard across Kyiv early on Tuesday, with Mayor Vitali Klitschko saying missile debris had fallen in the courtyard of one building while a second had caught fire in another part of the city.

The attacks come as Russia has begun hitting Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities with faster, high-flying jet drones.

Emergency officials said the strike on the National Academy of Sciences on Monday killed two people, with one person’s body recovered from the rubble later in the evening.

Video shared online appeared to show a fast-moving drone slamming into the building at a steep angle and exploding, sending smoke into a clear sky. People were seen leaning out of windows as bright orange flames engulfed part of the building.

Volodymyr Horbulin, a former secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, told the public broadcaster Suspilne that he was at work at the academy when it came under attack. He said his assistant, who was near the building, was killed and that he was also slightly wounded.

The academy is near the German Embassy, a cathedral, the national opera and government buildings.

In a statement, the academy called the attack “Russian terror” and “barbarity” aimed at “peaceful people who were simply at their workplaces”.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha accused Russia of cynicism for hitting a scientific institution during the workday.

“Russia is deliberately expanding the boundaries of what it believes the world will tolerate,” he said in a statement, urging Ukraine’s allies to provide more air defences.

Jet-powered drones

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian forces also hit a medical facility in Kyiv on Monday. He said at least nine people had been killed in Russian drone strikes throughout the country, while more than 80 people were wounded.

In his nightly video address, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was still having difficulty countering ‌the faster, high-flying Russian jet-powered drones.

“New interceptors are being actively tested,” he said. “Some combat groups are using them, but, of course, some details still need to be refined to achieve enough effectiveness and scale. We are speeding up the developers.”

According to the Ukrainian president, 90 of 120 drones fired on Ukraine on Monday were jet-propelled, rather than propeller-driven, with an interception rate for this type of drone at 57 percent.

Widening targets

Officials said the Russian strikes on Kyiv also targeted a pharmaceutical company and petrol stations. In other cities and regions, civilian facilities, businesses and communications infrastructure were hit.

In the southeastern city of Dnipro, a Russian drone attack on a business centre killed three people and wounded 19, according to officials. Another ⁠⁠person was killed in a logistics office in Synelnykove, southeast of Dnipro, the regional governor said.

Emergency services said an attack on infrastructure in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia wounded 32 people.

Al Jazeera’s Jonah Hull, reporting from Kyiv, said Russia has been hitting economic targets across Ukraine “in a rolling series of strikes that have been ongoing for six days now”, during the day and night.

“Data centres increasingly being hit, as well as digital and communications infrastructure,” he said. “Kyiv Star, the country’s biggest cell provider, was hit on Sunday, as was the second biggest, Vodafone Ukraine. The government is said to be preparing for the worst: a total blackout in communications should that come.”

The Russian attacks have brought Kyiv “firmly into the eye of this war”, Hull added.

Ukraine has also increased attacks on Russia, targeting oil refineries ‌‌as ‌‌well as online retailers to try to undermine revenues and support for Moscow’s war effort.

Zelenskyy said on Monday that Ukraine struck Russian oil facilities in the Krasnodar region and two defence plants.

Both sides have denied deliberately targeting civilians.