Russia

WASHINGTON — The U.S. military is experiencing a “beyond critical” shortage of advanced missile interceptors in Europe largely driven by President Trump’s war with Iran, a U.S. defense official in Europe and a NATO official told the Associated Press, raising concerns about vulnerabilities in NATO countries to a potential Russian attack.

The U.S. defense official said the most concerning shortfall involves Patriot missile interceptors, which can shoot down Russia’s high-speed ballistic missiles. The NATO official confirmed the low inventories of Patriots among American and NATO forces in Europe. Both spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.

In the event of a Russian ballistic missile assault on, for example, a military headquarters or power plant, NATO could be in a similar position to Patriot-starved Ukraine and be forced “to take punch after punch in the mouth,” the U.S. defense official said.

In Europe, the American military “definitely” does not have enough Patriots to stop any possible sustained ballistic missile attack and would have “very limited” capability to defend against a single ballistic missile strike or a stray Russian missile that goes off course, the U.S. official said.

It illustrates the cascading fallout from Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran, a conflict that reaches the six-month mark on Friday. U.S. missile stocks in Europe have been moved to the Middle East, where U.S. and Gulf allies have fired off significant numbers of interceptors, including Patriots, to thwart Iran’s drones and missiles. Some of those attacks have killed and wounded American troops.

Though a Russian ballistic missile attack against NATO countries is not imminently expected, CIA Director John Ratcliffe went to Moscow this week to warn Russia not to attack, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump played down the significance of the rare and secretive trip, saying it was “sort of semi-routine.”

European and NATO officials say Russia could be in a position to attack countries in the alliance by 2030. Patriot stockpiles are projected to rebound by then. In the meantime, Russia’s war in Ukraine could hinder its ability to carry out any missile attack on Europe as it would be a challenge for Moscow to fight an air war on two fronts.

U.S. Patriot transfers to Ukraine played a role in the drawdown, but the Iran war wasn’t expected

The Patriot missile shortage is most acutely felt in Ukraine, where officials are begging for more air defense support and where previous U.S. transfers also have drawn down some supply. Kyiv says only U.S.-made Patriots can stop Russia’s advanced ballistic missiles, which increasingly are getting through Ukrainian defenses, including as part of a barrage overnight into Thursday.

The U.S. supplied hundreds of Patriot missiles to Ukraine over the course of the 4 1/2-year-long conflict, but the Iran war was the tipping point for shrinking inventories, said Ed Arnold, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a military think tank in London.

The supply to Ukraine was planned for and reasonably measured, he said, whereas stocks in the Middle East have been unexpectedly and quickly drained, exposing supply chain constraints.

The U.S. military in Europe also is grappling with critical shortages of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, a medium-range ballistic missile designed to strike behind enemy lines, the two officials said. But the overall munitions picture in Europe is less dire than on air defenses alone because some European militaries have their own offensive missiles, such as the Taurus and Storm Shadow, which are both long-range air-launched bunker-busting missiles.

U.S. Army Col. Martin O’Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesperson, said it is “simply not the case” that the number of Patriot missiles in Europe is beyond critical.

NATO, he said, is able to “block punches” and has enough air defense munitions available to defend itself as well as to donate to Ukraine.

Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement Thursday that claims of U.S. munition shortages “are false.”

“We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the President’s choosing,” Parnell said. “Across multiple combatant commands, we have already executed successful operations while maintaining a deep, ready arsenal to defend our people and our interests.”

Europe has few alternatives while stocks are low

The dearth of Patriot interceptors in Europe would leave few alternatives for shooting down Russia’s more advanced ballistic missiles, which can be combined with swarms of inexpensive drones to overwhelm defenses, experts say.

Ukraine and some allies already use systems that can destroy slower-moving drones without expensive missiles. But ballistic missiles are a challenge because they dive steeply toward targets at more than five times the speed of sound, leaving little time to stop them.

The Patriot system tracks the missile, predicts its path and launches within minutes, all while carrying out complex calculations to ensure the interceptor finds its target. One Patriot battery can only cover a limited area: for example, a small military base but not a whole city.

One alternative could be France and Italy’s SAMP/T NG air defense system. France has promised to speed up the delivery of the system — the upgraded version of the current SAMP/T — to Ukraine, which the manufacturer says is better able to counter ballistics.

The new iteration, however, has not yet been battle tested and the current version of the SAMP/T has a smaller range than the Patriot.

While U.S. and European militaries have warships that can serve as mobile air defense, they may be too far from a target to protect it and could risk getting sunk.

Patriot stocks have plunged during the Iran war

Ukraine has received Patriots from American and European stockpiles since Russia’s 2022 invasion, with the U.S. providing about 600 of the interceptors during the Biden administration, said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel who is now senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

But the greatest expenditure has been during the Iran conflict, which has used up 65% of U.S. Patriots, amounting to roughly 1,500 of the nation’s 2,330 interceptors, CSIS says. About 600 missiles, including those destined for Europe, should be made this year, with a production goal of 2,000 Patriot missiles a year set for 2030, Cancian said.

NATO says Europe’s first Patriot missile production facility is expected to open in Germany in September, with deliveries possibly beginning early next year. The first deliveries should go to countries that have already placed orders, including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain, the U.S. defense official said.

But for now, that means some countries, such as Germany, have bought expensive Patriot systems but are in the “ridiculous” position of not having any ammunition to fire from them, said Arnold of the London think tank.

Germany’s defense ministry said it does not comment on stockpiles.

Russia also has limitations

Moscow likely cannot carry out a sustained air assault on a NATO target while it launches almost nightly attacks on Ukraine, Arnold said.

Ukraine’s recent strikes into Russia also have exposed weaknesses in Russia’s air defenses, which could prompt Putin to think twice about provoking a retaliatory attack.

“The uncomfortable truth is possibly the best air defense that we have is Russian constraints,” Arnold said.

Burrows and Finley write for the Associated Press. Burrows reported from London. AP writer Konstantin Toropin contributed to this report.

Syria has been in talks on the fate of Khmeimim and Tartous bases, which Russia used to support ousted Assad regime.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa have held discussions, including on the fate of Russia’s military bases in the Middle Eastern country.

During a telephone call on Wednesday, Putin affirmed Moscow’s support for Syria’s territorial integrity and reiterated Russia’s rejection of Israeli attacks and violations of Syrian sovereignty, reports Syrian news agency SANA.

The Kremlin stressed that the discussion also concerned deepening political dialogue and cooperation in trade, among other areas.

The talks were aimed at further development of bilateral relations and strengthened cooperation, SANA noted.

However, the status of the Khmeimim airbase and Tartous naval base, which are highly strategic for Russia, remains the key topic between Damascus and Moscow.

The Kremlin said that Russia-Syria relations will continue through continued contact “at various levels” and that “both sides underscored the importance of the Memorandum of Understanding On the Reorganisation of the Khmeimim Air Base and the Tartus Material-Technical Support Point, signed on August 9”.

Syria announced earlier this month that a deal had been agreed after 18 months of negotiations that will see Khmeimim and Tartous turned into “joint training and capacity-building centres”, with Syria to take control of civilian facilities at both bases.

Russia backed former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad throughout Syria’s 13-year civil war, intervening militarily to keep him in power and expanding the Russian footprint at the Khmeimim air base and Tartous naval base on the Mediterranean coast.

Since al-Sharaa led the ouster of the a;-Assad regime, Putin has worked to build relations with the new Syrian government and to secure the future of the bases, which are key to Russian efforts to maintain influence across the Middle East and Northern Africa.

Ukranian center Kate Koval will not return to Louisiana State’s basketball team next season, coach Kim Mulkey said in a statement released by the Tigers on Monday.

Koval’s decision to leave the program comes less than two weeks after LSU announced the signing of Russian teenager Anna Minaeva. Koval was born and raised in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital city, and her father is a drone operator fighting against Russia in its four-year invasion of Ukraine. According to nola.com, Koval said last season that she worried for her father’s life “every single day.”

“Kate came to see me on Sunday and told me that after much consideration, she will be leaving the program for personal reasons,” Mulkey said in her statement. “We will respect her privacy on her decision, but we had a long talk about it, and it was a hard decision for her. I know it is hard because she loves LSU.

“Kate is a great person. She has to do what she feels is right for her, and we fully support her in that. We all wish her the best.”

No announcement has been made about a future basketball home for Kobal, a 6-foot-5 rising junior who played at Notre Dame as a freshman before averaging 8.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks for the Tigers last season.

Minaeva, also a 6-5 center, is 17 but has previously played professionally with MBA Moscow. Mulkey told nola.com that she spoke with Koval earlier in the offseason before starting the recruiting process with Minaeva.

“I want you to understand I’m not here to ask you to change how you feel about Russia,” Mulkey said she told Koval. “I’m just here out of respect for your family and out of respect for you to let you know. Because I know how personal it is for you.

“Know that what I have to do in this business, I cannot make a decision to not recruit somebody that can help our program because of a conflict between two countries.”

Ukrainian drone attacks on targets deep inside Russia have spurred President Vladimir Putin to allow the government to temporarily seize what it deems commercial critical infrastructure that is not sufficiently protection against such strikes. This follows Russia’s move earlier this year to allow private companies to purchase their own air defense systems to protect their own facilities. Beyond calling for increased defenses, the decree signed by Putin also warns that the government will take over facilities that don’t make needed repairs quickly enough once they have been hit.

These actions come as Russia’s economy is reeling after repeated Ukrainian drone hits on its oil refineries and other energy facilities. A more recent Ukrainian campaign against Russian Amazon-like e-commerce distribution centers has added to the financial woes and growing public frustration.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that “often business owners do not pay enough attention to taking measures to ensure safety, anti-drone safety.”

Given the threat to vital economic infrastructure, “we must take measures, we must ensure our own safety,” he added.

Putin’s decree does not specify what actions these facilities are required to take to provide better protection against Ukrainian drone attacks. As we have written about frequently, due to the demands of the battlefield and repeated Ukrainian attacks across a growing portion of Russia, the Russian military already has a shortage of air defense systems. So it’s not clear how much equipment, and of what capabilities, is even available for private firms to purchase. However, the civilian counter-drone industry in Russia is flourishing. Back in May, Russian authorities authorized private companies “to purchase heavy weaponry to defend industrial facilities against drone attacks,” the RBC news website reported at the time, citing sources linked to the Defense Ministry.

“The new system will allow companies to procure anti-aircraft artillery systems, turrets, radar equipment, specialized vehicles and electronic warfare systems,” the outlet added. “In order to promptly provide newly formed mobile fire groups with everything they need, the relevant decisions were recently adopted at the state level.”

In addition, some refineries have already built metal cages around their facilities to help protect against drone attacks.

Russia Puts Cope Cages on Oil Storage Tanks

The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s oil refineries and Black Sea ports are having a dramatic effect on the Russian economy.

“In the four weeks through Aug. 23, overseas crude flows fell to 3.46 million barrels a day,” Bloomberg news reported, citing tanker-movements data it compiled. “Shipments had previously risen as the strikes on Russia’s refineries left more crude available for export, but that increase is now unwinding, after drone hits on oil tankers cut shipments from the Black Sea.”

“Meanwhile, strikes on Russian oil and gas processing plants continue to be an almost nightly occurrence, sending crude processing rates tumbling and creating domestic gasoline supply issues,” Bloomberg explained. “Falling Russian crude shipments come on top of Kremlin-imposed bans on overseas shipments of key refined products, including most gasoline, diesel and jet fuel supplies, which are further reducing inflows to Moscow’s war chest.”

Ukraine, as we noted earlier, has also targeted Russian logistics infrastructure belonging to major online retailers, such as Amazon-style retail giant Wildberries, to increase the financial pain on other sectors of the Russian economy. 

“Ozon, Russia’s second-largest online retailer, is now next in Ukraine’s crosshairs,” CNBC reported. “Shares of the company plunged nearly 30% on the Moscow Exchange on Monday after it reported drone strikes in southern Russia, which brought the number of facilities targeted in the last three days to six.”

Overnight on Monday, Ukraine continued striking inside Russia, attacking the Afipsky Refinery and Gas Separation Units at the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff. The extent of the damage is still being clarified.

“Afipsky Refinery is one of the large oil refining facilities in the Krasnodar region,” the general staff noted. “The project capacity is 6.25 million tons of oil per year. The plant produces, among other things, diesel, gasoline components, and is involved in supplying the Russian occupation army.”

The governor of the Krasnodar region, Veniamin Kondratiev, acknowledged the attack.

“Debris from a drone fell on the territory of the Afipskaya railway station,” he stated on Telegram. “Sadly, two people were killed. I express my deepest condolences to the families. Two more people were injured, and I wish them a speedy recovery. In addition, at least 10 private homes were damaged in the village of Afipsky. A fire broke out in one of them. A fire also occurred on the territory of a refinery. Firefighters and emergency services are currently working at the scene.”

Russia isn’t alone in worrying about Ukrainian drone strikes. Financial Times reporter Christopher Miller noted on X that the Trump administration asked Kyiv not to strike Moscow, St. Petersburg or northern regions of Russia Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, “when the U.S. would send a plane carrying a senior-level official to the Russian capital.”

On Tuesday, a U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster III strategic airlifter arrived in Moscow, reportedly ferrying CIA Director John Ratcliffe. You can read more about that in our initial story here.

Ratcliffe was visiting as the U.S. struggles to end Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine and the Iran war, though “the reason for the visit wasn’t immediately clear,” The Wall Street Journal noted. “The U.S. has collected intelligence showing Russia’s early preparations for a possible military mobilization in Ukraine and plans for testing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s resolve.”

Analysts said Ratcliffe could meet with Putin to deliver a warning, the newspaper noted.

“It could be to say, ‘We know what you are thinking about doing, and you better not,’” Beth Sanner, a former U.S. deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration, told the Journal. “It could also be about the Iran ceasefire and putting someone else in the discussion,” she said, adding Ratcliffe might also touch upon the Kremlin’s support for Iran following a new U.S. sanctions campaign against the regime.

The Latest

Ukraine is making some small advances in the southern section of the front while Russia continues to put heavy pressure on the Donetsk region in the east. Here are some key takeaways from the latest Institute for the Study of War assessment.

• Sumy: Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on August 23 and 24 but did not make confirmed advances.
• Kharkiv: Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Borova, Kupiansk and in the Velykyi Burluk direction on August 23 and 24 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces counterattacked.
• Donetsk: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction. Russian forces continued attempts to isolate Ukrainian forces in Mykolaivka (east of Slovyansk), and attacked in the Dobropillya tactical area, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Oleksandrivka on August 23 and 24 but did not advance.
• Zaporizhia: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Kherson: Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces reported ground activity in the Kherson direction on August 24.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered some positive news Tuesday about badly needed air defense systems and interceptors.

“We received confirmation regarding several Crotale air defense systems and missiles for them. And AIM missiles, which we use to shoot down enemy missiles. And a little more Patriot missiles have arrived,” Zelensky told reporters. He did not offer specific figures.

Zelensky added that Ukraine had received confirmation from the United Kingdom regarding the production of SCALP long-range missiles.

He added that “French President Emmanuel Macron had confirmed the unblocking of SCALP missiles and the necessary licenses,” the Kyiv Post reported. You can read more about that effort in our story here.

“We will act. I believe this is a strong positive and a strong decision,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky also said Ukraine expects to receive a schedule for the Freya domestic air defense interceptor initiative within seven to 10 days, including information on meetings and areas where cooperation with defense companies is currently blocked.

Earlier this month, we told you about two drone-related incidents at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany that represented the most serious threats yet in the wave of small drone incursions that have plagued Europe for the past few years. German police said an explosive-laden drone was located on the ground near a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 Condor cargo jet and that there was a midair collision between an object and another cargo aircraft.

More news about that situation emerged today.

German investigators uncovered a third drone and suspected military explosives thought to be connected to the attempted attack on Leipzig airport, the Guardian reported, citing local media.

“The drone was discovered in Kabelsketal, just to the west of the airport, along with about 50g (1.8oz) of a suspected military explosive on 14 August, 10 days after the unsuccessful sabotage,” the publication stated. The office of the prosecutor general, which is leading the investigation, declined to comment on Tuesday. But the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said the government would soon provide information about who it believed was behind the drone attacks.

“They will pay for this,” Merz said, stopping short of naming a suspect, before a cabinet meeting in Brandenburg. He added that the government was “working intensively on this together with the security authorities and we will present our findings and comment on them shortly.”

“Intelligence sources cited by the broadcasters NDR and WDR and the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung said they suspected the involvement of Russian intelligence in the attempted attack,” the Guardian added. Moscow has denied involvement.

Leipzig airport is a cargo and military logistics hub used by NATO and Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines for transporting military supplies. As we noted in our initial piece, the Condor, in particular, represents an unsurprising target for Russia. Ukraine’s An-124s are a source of national pride and a big flying symbol of the country’s defiance and survival. They also provide much-needed revenue to Ukraine and strategic airlift to support the conflict. Ukraine’s An-124s have long provided charter cargo services for western militaries, companies and NGOs. Since the war began, Antonov Airlines An-124s have been used to deliver war materiel bound for Ukraine.

Britain has signed a partnership with Ukraine to jointly develop artificial intelligence tools for defense and security, ​”giving British researchers access to a Ukrainian battlefield data platform ‌used to train military AI systems,” Reuters reported.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Zelensky signed the agreement in Kyiv, making Britain the first international partner to access Ukraine’s ​Avengers AI Labs, a government statement said.

Avengers Labs “was built ​around an annotated dataset of 5 million battlefield images, Ukraine’s ⁠Defense Ministry said earlier in August, largely drawn from the military’s DELTA ​combat system – a domestically developed battlefield management and situational-awareness system,” the outlet added. “The platform uses ​data collected from cameras and sensors across Ukraine’s battlefield, including information on tanks, artillery systems, drones and other military targets.”

The Ukrainian ministry said “AI models trained on ​the data were already being used in an automated target-detection system that ​analyses more than 100,000 drone video feeds each month and can identify about 70% ‌of ⁠enemy targets in real time,” Reuters noted.

In early 2023, donated tanks began arriving in Ukraine with great fanfare and hopes that additional armor would help turn the tide against Russia.

Fast forward to today and many of those tanks that survived combat “now mostly sit idle, hidden in forests and collecting cobwebs,” according to a New York Times report. “The $10 million machines, procured with great fanfare, proved no match for cheap drones that now dominate the battlefield. Yet Ukraine still maintains them and trains soldiers to use them, while trying to imagine new ways to deploy them.”

“We’re making virtually no use of armored vehicles,” Oleksandr Syrskyi, who until last month was Ukraine’s top general, said recently, the newspaper noted. “This raises the question: How can we neutralize this advantage enjoyed by drones and give our armor a new lease on life?”

The situation has changed so drastically that tanks are being used largely as tractors to tow damaged equipment, the Times proffered. Some of the troops are now more involved with drones than tanks. Newer recruits to a unit that was among the first to receive donated armor “have never even touched a tank. Among them was Korzhyk, 33, who joined the brigade in 2025 and spends his days repairing ground drones in a dark workshop,” the publication added.

Video emerged on social media of a Ukrainian MiG-29MU1 Fulcrum fighter dropping U.S.-made GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) toward enemy drone operators inside Russia’s Belgorod region.

Ukraine’s mid-range drone attacks against Russian logistics have proven quite successful; however, the following picture shows not every that not every strike resulted in complete destruction. As you can see, a Hornet one-way attack drone got stuck in the windshield of a truck in occupied Crimea.

That’s it for now.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Ukraine hits Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery and gas plant in latest attacks targeting energy infrastructure.

A fire broke out at the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region following a drone attack, local authorities have said.

At least two people were killed and two others were injured due to falling drone debris at the Afipsky railway station, Governor Veniamin Kondratyev said on Tuesday.

Ukraine has been targeting Russia’s oil refineries and ⁠other infrastructure, attempting to undermine ⁠Moscow’s war efforts and reduce financial revenue.

Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck facilities at Afipsky.

It said its forces also hit a gas processing plant in Russia’s Astrakhan region overnight.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its forces had struck a cargo vessel carrying goods for the Ukrainian army in the port of Pivdennyi near Odesa, as well as port infrastructure facilities used for unloading military cargo.

The ministry said Russian air defences shot down 148 Ukrainian drones overnight.

Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent months, escalating a fuel crisis in the country.

Amid the continuing attacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Monday that would allow the state to take temporary control of critical infrastructure found to be inadequately protected from attack.

The attacks come after a meeting in Kyiv where Ukraine’s allies pledged to continue supporting the country during the ongoing war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the assembled leaders in an evening address that he wanted to “raise production” of drones and missiles to wage “more attacks” on Russia, matching its strikes on Ukraine.

The meeting was attended by 30 leaders of the so-called Coalition of the Willing, including British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who called for negotiations with Russia, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who participated remotely and predicted that “NATO countries will be targeted and the provocations will multiply”.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb was also in attendance, urging Ukraine’s allies to help expand its ability ⁠to strike deeply inside Russia.

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Burnham and Stubb belonged to the “party of war”.

Owing to his illness, 26-year-old Sasha from Orenburg, a city in Russia close to the Kazakhstan border, has a Category V military ID, which under normal circumstances makes him ineligible for service.

But not during wartime.

Just before partial mobilisation was declared in 2022, he considered leaving for Kazakhstan. But while awaiting the bus, he struck up a conversation with his soon-to-be girlfriend.

As they turned back together, they decided against making the drastic move.

Over the past year, however, they have grown increasingly anxious.

“Since mid-2025, my girlfriend and I have been experiencing a severe decline in mental health. We see psychiatrists and take antidepressants,” Sasha told Al Jazeera.

He requested to be identified only by his first name to protect his anonymity.

“I don’t go outside unless it’s urgent and try never to be alone. I carry pepper spray for protection against aggression if it happens, like in Penza.”

Since June, there have been reports of attempted press-ganging in Penza, 625km (388 miles) southeast of Moscow.

Recent footage shared on social media has shown individuals dressed in plainclothes trying to force fighting-age men into vehicles to take them to the recruitment centre, while weeping women try to intervene – echoing similar scenes in Ukraine.

Potential recruits have also been reportedly summoned to police stations under bureaucratic pretexts, then beaten or threatened – for example, by having illicit drugs planted on them – into signing a military contract.

Local authorities deny the reports, claiming only men attempting to dodge the draft, who have already been mobilised, are being approached. They have also accused residents who have shared footage of the roundups of spreading disinformation.

Although the Penza roundups have received attention lately, local authorities throughout Russia have been accused of coercive methods for some time.

“In October 2022, a friend was stopped at night by military police,” said Sasha. “They identified themselves as civilians and didn’t show identification. They demanded a passport or military ID, and that he accompany them. My friend ran away.”

According to Mikhail Liberov, from the Conscientious Objectors Movement, military recruiters select the “right targets who, for one reason or another, are vulnerable to seduction, deception, blackmail, or are simply unaware of their actions”.

He said this group includes drug addicts, alcoholics, mentally unwell people, those with large debts and migrants “who don’t speak Russian or barely know what’s actually written, and are also afraid of deportation”.

Men above 35 years of age are also approached, and some are “willing to risk their lives and the lives of others for big money and the chance to become ‘heroes’.

“Then comes the threat of prison: A man arrested for petty hooliganism might be intimidated by the idea that, say, ‘We’ll plant drugs on you and put you in prison for 12 years,’ and many agree to sign contracts.”

Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the recent roundups in Penza are likely isolated instances of local authorities trying to fill their recruitment quotas, rather than a systemic, nationwide effort.

‘Mobilisation will still happen’

These renewed recruitment incidents come amid rumours of a mobilisation effort and an expected Russian offensive this winter that will likely involve ramped-up attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

“I’ve already accepted that mobilisation will still happen, unless something happens that forces (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to end the war in Ukraine,” said Liberov, who believes Russia will ready troops within a year.

“Human rights activists are already working on the assumption that mobilisation will take place this fall,” he said.

In September 2022, Putin signed a decree allowing for partial mobilisation. Fearing deployment, thousands of men fled to neighbouring countries. But that mobilisation effort effectively ended two months later.

Russia has since been able to replenish its ranks by enlisting prisoners, as well as promising generous payouts.

However, the recruitment pool is dwindling.

According to the independent Russian news site IStories, the number of people voluntarily signing military contracts halved by late 2025. Those who enlist are disproportionately from underprivileged corners of society.

“The protracted war with Ukraine, the large number of dead soldiers, and the degradation of the Russian economy demotivate people from participating in such an adventure in the name of Putin,” said Liberov.

Official casualties are not made public in Russia.

The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies puts the number of deaths among Russian forces since the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 at nearly 450,000.

Meanwhile, the 2022 mobilisation decree remains in effect, and the Russian offensive in Ukraine is lagging. The war is now being felt at home as Ukrainian drones strike deep into Russian territory.

“I only live once. I’m not going to sacrifice it for someone else’s wishes and will fight to the bitter end,” said Sasha. “Human life is priceless, and you have to cling to it until the end.”

Vladimir from Ulan-Ude, who has previously served as a conscript and is thus eligible for mobilisation, said he has a “generally negative attitude” about Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“I am preparing for a possible draft. In the event of an escalation, I will insist on the alternative civil service,” said the 35-year-old, who requested to withhold his surname over fears of reprisal. “I wouldn’t want to leave the country.”

According to the Russian constitution, alternative civilian service can be applied for when “convictions or religious beliefs contradict military service”.

Conscripts can serve either for 21 months at an organisation “subordinate to the bodies of the executive branch”, often taking jobs as nurses, cleaners or postal workers, or for 18 months at a defence manufacturing plant. According to the Ministry of Defence, about 2,000 people apply for alternative civilian service each year, with approximately half receiving approval.

Earlier this summer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed the Kremlin was secretly preparing for a mass mobilisation – a claim backed by reports in Russian independent media.

In June, lawmaker Andrey Gurulev of the governing United Russia party wrote on Telegram that “there’s now active talk, both behind the scenes and in high places, about the need for a new large-scale mobilisation.”

But expanding the army is expensive while budgets are under strain, and a huge influx of recruits still leaves a shortage of experienced officers and trained specialists.

“I would say that Russia’s problems right now are less about the quantity, but more about the quality of contractors,” said Crisis Group’s Ignatov.

“Russians need more skilled soldiers who can operate drones, who can operate modern warfare systems. And here they have more problems than the Ukrainians.

“But if this war continues, of course, we can assume that (mobilisation) could happen.”

China is set to launch its Chang’e-7 unmanned, robotic space mission, possibly as early as Monday morning, to look for ice water in the permanently shadowed craters of the moon’s south pole.

This marks China’s seventh and most ambitious moon mission so far. Here is what we know about it.

What do we know about Chang’e-7?

The Chang’e‑7 launch window runs from Monday, August 24 to Monday, August 31, according to launch observers. That means the mission could lift off on any day in that period.

The Chang’e-7 comprises an orbiter, a lander, a rover and a hopper.

• The orbiter is the main spacecraft which will remain in the moon’s orbit, mapping the surface and taking images while the mission is under way. It will also relay data and communications between the other Chang’e‑7 components and Earth.
• The lander is the vessel that will touch down on the lunar surface, loaded with the necessary scientific instruments for lunar exploration, near the edge of the Shackleton Crater, a 21km-wide (13-mile-wide) pit close to the moon’s south pole. Lunar missions before this have never come this close to the pole.
• The rover is a small robotic vehicle which can drive around the landing site and which carries equipment to analyse the local environment, including rocks and soil.
• The hopper is a small robotic craft powered by solar energy, designed to “hop” – or fly – short distances from the surface of the moon and land again. It will be used to explore the Shackleton Crater.

How do we know there is water on the moon?

Over the past two decades, several space missions have established that there is water on the moon.

Since the 1960s, even before the first Apollo landing in 1969, scientists speculated that water could exist on the moon. However, when Apollo crews returned samples for testing in the late 1960s and early 1970s, they appeared to be dry.

Finally, in 2009, NASA deliberately crashed a rocket segment and its probe into a shadowed lunar crater to analyse the dust plume it kicked up. This provided one of the clearest direct confirmations that significant ice water does exist on the moon, building on earlier detections of water and hydrogen by probes.

In October 2020, NASA scientists announced that water on the moon is more widespread than previously known. They said water molecules had been found to be encapsulated within mineral grains on the lunar surface and speculated that more water is hidden in ice patches which are in permanent shadows.

NASA describes these permanent shadows as dark areas inside deep craters near the north and south poles of the moon where sunlight has not reached for millions or even billions of years. In 2018, prior to confirming it in 2020, NASA had detected water ice in shadowed parts of the moon through mapping.

Why is it important to find out more about the water on the moon?

Expanding knowledge about water on the moon is vital because ancient polar ice may have preserved a record of lunar volcanic activity and of water delivered by comets and asteroids to the Earth-moon system, offering clues to how our own oceans originally formed.

Additionally, if there is enough water on the moon that is realistically accessible, it could serve as a source of drinking water for crewed lunar missions, and could also help to keep equipment cool.

Hydrogen could also be extracted from moon water to provide fuel, while oxygen could be extracted to breathe, supporting onward missions to Mars or lunar mining.

Could anyone ‘own’ the water on the moon?

The 1967 United Nations Outer Space Treaty bans any nation from claiming sovereignty over the moon or owning it as territory. It does not explicitly prohibit commercial operations, but it requires private activities in space to be authorised and supervised by states and leaves key questions about resource ownership unresolved.

Which recent space missions have searched for frozen water on the moon?

In 2023, Russia’s lunar spacecraft, Luna-25, was launched to look for frozen water in the moon’s south pole. However, the Luna-25 spun out of control and crashed. The crash prevented any scientific data collection or water discovery.

Racing against the Luna-25 mission was India’s Chandrayaan-3, which also aimed to expand knowledge of lunar water ice. Chandrayaan-3 successfully landed in August 2023 and found critical new evidence of water on the surface of the moon’s south pole through soil temperature readings.

Why is exploring the moon’s south pole a challenge?

Attempted landings at the moon’s south pole have failed before because of its challenging terrain, which is full of craters and deep trenches.

The south pole is far from the equatorial region targeted by previous missions, including the crewed Apollo landings.

What is different about the Chang’e-7 mission?

The upcoming Chang’e-7 is aiming to expand knowledge about where, exactly, water is located in the craters of the moon, how deep it is, what form it is in and whether it is indeed possible to access it.

The Chang’e-7’s six-legged hopper has been designed to jump into and out of the deep, shadowed craters near the south pole that are hard for traditional rovers to reach, to look for water ice and other resources.

No previous space mission has used a dedicated hopper to jump in and out of lunar craters in this way.

Russian ballistic missile attacks have begun to cause record civilian deaths in Ukrainian cities without any Patriot interceptors to stop them, but Ukraine’s long-range strikes have destroyed Russian fuel supplies.

With the Russian economy struggling, a top expert warned that social unrest could unfold in a matter of time – and consequently lost his job.

On Tuesday, Russian missiles killed at least 10 people in Pechenihy, a town 40km (25 miles) east of Ukraine’s northern city of Kharkiv. On Thursday, they killed 15 people in Kyiv, three in the western city of Zhytomyr and injured 40 at a border crossing between Odesa and Moldova.

Russia said it was targeting weapons manufacturing sites in Kyiv, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian forces struck 30 residential buildings, a school and a children’s hospital.

The United Nations said Russia killed a record 437 people in July and injured 2,610, surpassing its previous record in June by 30 percent.

Civilian casualties have continued in August, because Ukraine has run out of Patriot interceptors and has been unable to stop incoming ballistic missile attacks since the beginning of the month.

As Zelenskyy pointed out, Ukraine’s interception rate of cruise missiles and drones is still in the 90-percent range. But Russia is doubling down on the use of ballistic missiles and has brought in an additional 50 North Korean weapons, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.

Ukraine strikes back

Since June 25, Ukraine has launched a campaign of mid-range strikes to disrupt Russian logistics and has harassed fuel and ammunition supplies so effectively that it has made 233sq km (90 square miles) of territorial gains this year.

By August 16, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces announced it had put 228 supply ships out of action in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, as well as destroying 243 power stations, electricity substations and gas distribution nodes in Crimea.

They have also been striking relay antennas used to guide Russian drones and radar stations that detect Ukrainian counterstrikes. On August 20, Ukraine struck drone launch sites in Donetsk City and Primorsko-Akhtarsk on the Sea of Azov, as well as a fuel terminal in the Kerch Strait used to supply Crimea.

Ukraine’s long-range strikes have served a different purpose – to undermine the Russian economy’s ability to fund its war.

On August 15, Ukraine managed to fly two of its Flamingo cruise missiles into the Progress Rocket and Space Centre, 800km (500 miles) east of Moscow, despite Russia’s use of four A-50 early warning aircraft and its reported downing of 822 Ukrainian drones that day.

Ukraine said it hit an engine assembly workshop for Soyuz rockets, causing a fire covering half a hectare.

Russia is using Soyuz to launch satellites for its Rassvet constellation to replace dependence on the US Starlink system, after Ukraine managed to cut Russian access to Starlink on February 1 . Russia needs satellites to increase the speed and precision of its counter-battery fire on Ukrainian positions. Its loss of that capacity has been partly responsible for Ukrainian gains this year.

“One Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle can put 20 satellites into orbit,” said Ukrainian electronics expert Serhiy Beskrestnov. “To create a basic satellite constellation in orbit, Russia needs to carry out 12-15 launches.”

The following day, Ukraine set ablaze a 25-hectare warehouse belonging to the Wildberries online retail chain, Russia’s equivalent of Amazon, and said it had destroyed seven out of Wildberries’ ten largest logistical hubs.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 28 that the Kremlin was monitoring the damage to Wildberries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin implied on Thursday that he might provide government funds for Wildberries to rebuild, saying “logistics and warehousing capacity certainly needs to be restored, including with government support”.

Ukraine has also succeeded in destroying Russian oil refineries and starving its economy of petrol

It has recently struck the Ust-Luga refinery, the Taneco refinery in Tatarstan and the Perm refinery, 1,500km (930 miles) from its borders.

Similar strikes this year have so reduced petrol supply in Russia. The Izvestia newspaper reported that only 28 percent of petrol stations across the country could supply fuel this week, citing mobile app GdeBENZ, which monitors real-time fuel availability.

Izvestia said only five petrol stations in Moscow were selling high-octane AI-98 fuel. Russians posted video of Rosgvardia police units sitting outside petrol stations to avert some of the fights involving motorists in recent months.

Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said lower-grade fuel was being supplied to ease market tensions, and confirmed that Russia is now importing refined fuel for the domestic market.

“We expect a number of oil refineries to complete maintenance work soon and the situation to improve significantly,” Novak told Vesti journalist Pavel Zarubin, but that may be wishful thinking. Ukraine has struck Russia’s largest refineries not once but repeatedly. On Wednesday [August 19 ], it struck a refining unit at Ufa, which was undergoing repairs from a previous strike. It is 1,300km (810 miles) from Ukraine.

Ukraine also struck significant military targets during the week, including the Kamenyy Kombinat plant in Rostov, which makes solid rocket fuel for missiles, and the Savasleika airfield, from where MiG fighters armed with Kh-47M2 ballistic missiles take -off.

Russian economy in trouble

Some Russian economists have begun to warn of impending social and political upheaval as a result of the slowing economy.

Andrey Klepach, chief economist at Vnesheconombank, a state bank that finances the Kremlin’s national projects, warned on August 18 that, “Losses from Ukrainian military strikes … are already becoming a significant macroeconomic barrier to Russian economic growth.

“I believe Russia won’t collapse, but I’m almost certain we’ll reach a social crisis.”

He was removed from his post after making the comments during a discussion at the Moscow Exchange’s Nikitsky Club.

Russians are withdrawing savings in increasing amounts, reported The Washington Post. While businesses are increasing “voluntary” donations to the state defence budget, in addition to having to pay for their own air defences, putting further strain on the economy.

At a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects this week, Putin acknowledged that Ukraine’s strikes are “certainly” causing damage, adding that “overall economic performance is modest but positive”.

That damage took financial form in the $1.18bn Putin newly released to aid regional budgets, in addition to previous financial assistance. Some $52m of that was destined for Crimea.

Ukraine’s defence ministry estimated that every dollar spent on drone strikes caused five times that amount in costs to the Russian economy.

Police allege Australian-Russian citizen joined Ukrainian military seeking to send information to Russian intelligence.

Australian police have charged a dual Russian-Australian citizen for trying to pass Ukrainian military information to people he believed were linked to Russian intelligence.

The 27-year-old man was due ⁠to appear in court in Brisbane on Friday on charges of foreign interference.

Australian Federal Police Commissioner Krissy Barrett told a news conference that the suspect travelled to Russia for training in October 2024. He then returned to Australia but “maintained contact” with individuals he believed were linked to Moscow’s intelligence services.

The police allege the man enlisted in the Ukrainian military in May 2025, ‌where he “gained access to information relating to their military personnel, units and locations”.

Barrett said he shared the information obtained in Ukraine with “individuals he believed were acting on behalf of Russian intelligence services”, putting the safety of Ukrainian military staff at risk.

“We don’t want Australia to become a safe haven for people who are undertaking foreign interference on behalf of other countries,” the commissioner said.

The identity of the suspect, who is unemployed, has not been revealed. Police said there was no indication he had received military training in Australia. Search warrants have been executed, they added, noting the possibility of further arrests related to the case.

Australian Federal Police and the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation spy agency conducted the investigation.

“This case should put regimes perpetrating foreign interference on notice: we have zero tolerance,” ASIO Deputy Director-General Claire McGuinness said.

Russia’s embassy in Australia said it had no knowledge of the case.

“At this stage, no official requests or notifications have been received by the Embassy or the Consulate General in Sydney, either from the Australian authorities or from the individual concerned,” the embassy said in an email to the AFP news agency. “We are currently using the available channels and resources to establish the circumstances of the case.”

Russia arrests Ukrainian operatives

Meanwhile, Russian authorities have arrested nine people and charged them with working for Ukrainian intelligence, state media reported on Friday.

The TASS media agency said eight of the suspects were found to have 35 drones, equipped with explosives smuggled from the European Union, and planned ‌to attack a strategic defence enterprise in the Moscow region.

Separately, a foreign ⁠national was detained close to the Norwegian border. The FSB security service said that the man – whose nationality it did not reveal – had been arrested for trying to launch a surveillance drone over Moscow to help Ukrainian intelligence plot an attack on the Russian capital.

The FSB said it had detained the individual as he was trying to flee to Norway on foot.

Fifteen years since the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi in Libya began, and with civil strife leading to the downfall of what was once one of Africa’s wealthiest countries, several actors are seeking to end the civil war and reunite the country.

Among them are the US, which has commercial interests in Libya’s oil fields. Qatar, Egypt and Turkiye are also pushing for a return to “One Libya”, after more than a decade of fighting between two rival authorities for control of the country.

Here’s what we know:

What happened 15 years ago?

The Libyan uprising erupted during the Arab Spring, when thousands of people in the port city of Benghazi took to the streets to protest against Gaddafi’s more than four decades of absolute power.

Violence against the demonstrations pushed the protesters into an armed rebellion against Gaddafi’s rule, with a civil war starting between the two sides.

A United Nations Security Council resolution authorised an international military intervention force – led by NATO members, the United States, United Kingdom and France – to enforce a no-fly zone and ensure the protection of civilians in Libya. This bombing campaign pushed back Gaddafi’s forces from Benghazi and aided the rebels in seizing territory.

Gaddafi was eventually captured and killed in October 2011, 42 years after he first seized power in a military coup that overthrew King Idris.

How is Libya divided?

Following Gaddafi’s death, a power vacuum emerged, with multiple groups – and their allied militias – competing for power.

Control of the country is now split between two rival administrations: the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dheibah, and the eastern, Tobruk-based administration backed by Khalifa Haftar and his self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA).

The GNU is recognised by the UN and other countries, and officially has authority in the capital and western Libya.

Under Gaddafi, Haftar was exiled in the US for two decades where he holds citizenship.

His forces control vast resource-rich lands in the east, including the strategic port city of Benghazi, reportedly with the backing of Russia.

The UN began formal mediation efforts in 2020 under the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). This roadmap advocates for a three-track strategy that includes unifying the two rival administrations, presidential and parliamentary elections, and hosting national dialogue meetings.

The US was a key mediator behind the scenes, and in May 2021, appointed Ambassador Richard Norlan as Special Envoy to Libya, to lead high-level talks between the two sides.

What is the US’s new plan?

Under Massad Boulous, US President Donald Trump’s African and Middle Eastern affairs adviser, and father-in-law to Tiffany Trump, Washington is intensifying efforts to reunite the country. But this can only be achieved if both sides agree to form a single government.

According to leaked details, Trump’s initiative centres on the promise that if the rival governments cooperate, the US would encourage American investment in Libya’s sizable oil fields. This comes as the Libyan Central Bank, which is attempting to finance both authorities, sounds the alarm over the dire economic situation.

While Tripoli has international legitimacy, Haftar’s forces control the oilfields and terminals.

The US is also proposing a power-sharing deal that would see Dheibah continue to lead the government while Haftar’s son and LNA army chief, 35-year-old Saddam Haftar, serves as president.

There are obvious opportunities for US energy companies and economic and political incentives for European countries in a unified and stable Libya.

They include stopping irregular migration from Libya and other North African countries to the EU.

Some criticise the US-led plan as lacking input from the Libyan people. The deal, some say, could entrench the power of political dynasties, which might be best for long-term stability in Libya.

What have the results been?

There are signs that Haftar’s camp, at least, is on board with the US plan. Saddam Haftar, whose father, Khalifa, was based in Virginia until 2011, reportedly met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in DC in July.

Experts attribute the ongoing mediation efforts to the unified national budget of 2026, signed in April – the first in more than a decade.

However, there are still no talks or signs of a unified government forming.

What is Turkiye’s role?

Turkiye, which earlier deployed troops to support the GNU, has also made efforts to mediate between the two sides and is pushing a ‘One Libya’ policy.

Last month, Foreign Affairs Minister, Hakan Fidan, met with Saddam Haftar in Ankara. Earlier this month, Fidan travelled to both Tripoli and Benghazi for high-level talks with Dheibah and Khalifa Haftar.

What has Egypt done?

The Egyptian government has traditionally cooperated with Haftar’s Tobruk government, which is just across the border.

On Wednesday, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met with Khalifa Haftar in Cairo and discussed unification talks.

Earlier this month, Dheibah visited Cairo, while Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad travelled to Tripoli.

What is Qatar’s stance?

Qatar has largely backed the UN mediation channels in Libya: the UNSMIL and the UN roadmap for peace.

While it has good relations with the GNU, Qatar seeks stabilisation efforts led by Libyan parties and elections.

In April, Qatar and other states welcomed the unified budget for 2026. A statement issued by Qatar, Egypt, France, Germany and several others called for all parties in Libya to follow the UN roadmap to “advance a Libyan-led political process leading to unified governance and national elections.”

All the Ukrainian-born PoWs we interviewed came from areas occupied since 2014 and almost all joined the Russian army voluntarily.

But one man from Donetsk region told us he had been forced to fight.

His eyes darted around as he talked, unsure who he could trust.

One official tally, citing “intelligence”, suggests more than 50,000 Ukrainians have been conscripted against their will in occupied areas. Others put the figure far higher.

This man told us that when the Russians invaded, his family had stayed, not through any political or national allegiance but because Donetsk was their home.

Now, his only ambition was to get back to his wife and children, then avoid being returned to the front. “I’m just going to hide,” he confided.

Beneath the hospital windows and newly whitewashed walls there are rows of strawberries and cucumbers planted by the prisoners.

Further on, the stench of varnish from an outhouse is overpowering.

An official lifts a gold-coloured plastic handle from a bag near the door. “Guess what this is for?” he challenges us, grinning.

Inside, I do a double-take: the men working inside are hammering together wooden coffins. I am told the last contract the prison got was for garden sheds. This one feels macabre.

Across the courtyard in another workshop a handful of PoWs are making artificial Christmas trees, gaudy baubles strung from their machines. Like the coffin-makers, they tell me they use their wages to buy extra food and cigarettes.

Sergei was born in the Ukrainian city of Luhansk but says he is Russian like his parents, who moved to the Donbas when both countries were part of the Soviet Union.

He joined the Russian army a decade ago “to defend my homeland”, but claims he will retire when he gets back, not return to the front. “I’ve done my bit.”

Most will have no choice.

Stacking plastic branches next to Sergei is a drug dealer who signed up, like many, “exclusively” to avoid a long jail term.

“For me, 15 years in prison was too much,” Konstantin explains. “I know it probably doesn’t excuse me, but it’s a fact. I’m 44 now, I would be 60. So no.”

But Vshniki, or convict-soldiers, have to survive to the end of the war to be released and in the assault troops the odds are not good.

Three convicted murderers told us they had thought they could walk free after fighting for a year, only to have their contacts renewed automatically.

A wave of overnight Russian missile strikes has killed at least five people in the capital Kyiv and the surrounding region, Ukrainian authorities say.

Apartment blocks and warehouses were targeted in the “massive attack” on Thursday, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (DSNS). At least least 23 people were injured in the strikes.

Authorities are scrambling to rescue anyone trapped underneath the rubble of demolished buildings, with crews already pulling one survivor from debris.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said a children’s hospital had been damaged in the overnight strikes, where windows were broken and cars set ablaze nearby.

An industrial centre in the Solomyanskyi district, south-west Kyiv, was also hit by missiles, the mayor said.

An attack in Brovary district of the broader Kyiv region killed one man and wounded another, Kyiv regional governor Tymur Tkachenko said.

The regional administration issued an alert earlier in the night warning residents to take shelter. It continued: “Air defense operations are possible in the area”.

More missile alerts were issued from regional authorities, citing warnings from the Ukrainian air force.

The Russian airstrikes cut power to thousands of properties overnight, plunging parts of the Kyiv region into darkness, with technicians racing to repair the damaged energy grids.

Russia’s Defence Ministry says 453 Ukrainian drones were downed overnight in various regions.

At least five people have been killed and 11 others injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine, authorities said.

A Russian drone attack on a bus in the front-line city of Kherson killed at least four people and wounded four others on Wednesday, Kherson regional Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.

The attack took place at about 8:50am local time (05:50 GMT), and all the casualties were bus passengers.

In a post on the Telegram app, Prokudin said the wounded had been taken to hospital.

He posted blurred photos of a yellow bus with bloodied steps and shattered windows.

Russian forces regularly strike Kherson, which was under Moscow’s control from March to November 2022 – the initial months of the war – with drones, in what Ukraine says is the deliberate targeting of civilians.

Earlier this month, Ukraine accused Russia of chasing a man in a street market in Kherson with a remotely piloted FPV drone, calling it a “safari” targeting civilians.

The city had a population of about 280,000 before the war began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russian forces, repelled from the city by a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the last quarter of 2022, are now positioned on the opposite bank of the Dnipro River, which flows past Kherson.

There has been an uptick in civilian deaths in the conflict throughout this year, the United Nations has reported, with 437 civilians killed in Ukraine last month alone, the highest monthly toll since May 2022.

Russian authorities reported 79 civilians killed in Ukrainian attacks in July, up from the previous month.

The four-and-a-half-year war continues to grind on, as United States-backed talks aimed at ending the conflict remain stalled.

In a separate Russian attack, one person was killed and seven others injured in Ukraine’s southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, according to regional Governor Ivan Fedorov.

Russian drones struck the regional capital, damaging both residential and nonresidential buildings and causing a fire.

Meanwhile, Russian forces struck a cargo vessel in the Black Sea near the Ukrainian port of Odesa, Russian news agency Interfax reported, citing the Ministry of Defence.

The vessel was carrying military cargo, the ministry said.

It said Russia’s air defence brought down 453 Ukrainian drones overnight in various regions.

At the same time, Russian authorities were rushing to put out a small fire after a drone fell in an industrial area in the city of Ufa in the Russian republic of Bashkortostan, the republic’s head Radiy Khabirov said on Telegram.

Khabirov added that a drone hit an apartment building and a few cars in Ufa, an oil refining hub, injuring one person.

Concern over the security of Europe’s largest nuclear plant has been rife since Russia launched its full-scale war on Ukraine nearly five years ago.

A drone strike close to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in occupied southeastern Ukraine has killed one nuclear specialist and wounded 17, according to Russian reports.

Moscow asserted on Tuesday that the drone was launched by Ukraine. The security of Europe’s biggest nuclear plant has provoked significant global concern amid the full-scale war on Ukraine that Russia launched in February 2022.

Most of those injured by the strike were employees of the plant, according to a Telegram update by the Russian management of the nuclear facility. It asserted that the attack constituted one of the most serious incidents in the plant’s history.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier confirmed reports that the strike hit staff members at a bus stop.

“No nuclear safety or security damage was reported,” the IAEA, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, said on social media.

However, it called “on military commanders responsible for these actions as well as all others aiming on nuclear power plants and/or their staff to put an immediate stop to these unacceptable actions”, citing the “great risks to nuclear safety”.

The Zaporizhzhia plant was seized by Russian forces a month after Moscow launched its invasion. The facility has been under Russian management since.

The safety of the plant – and the potential consequences of a hit amid the hostilities – have been a concern since the start of the war.

Zaporizhzhia’s six reactors can produce nearly six gigawatts of electricity, and the plant was crucial to supplying power to Ukraine’s national grid. All of the reactors have been shut down since Russia captured the plant, but a strike could cause damage and potentially cause serious leaks of radioactive material.

Tuesday’s strike came ahead of a scheduled visit by IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi to assess nuclear safety. It’s not clear if that visit will still take place.

A Russian strike on a thermal power plant was reported in central Ukraine a few hours later, forcing a halt to operations, according to DTEK, Ukraine’s largest energy provider and the company that operates the plant.

No casualties were reported, but DTEK stated on social media that the attack caused “significant damage to equipment”.

Russia has attacked the company’s thermal plants 230 times since the start of the war, according to DTEK’s Telegram channel, as it wages a campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

By chaining bilateral naval exercises across a widening circle of partners — Russia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and now Indonesia — Beijing is not assembling an alliance. It is manufacturing the impression that a Chinese warship’s presence near every regional flashpoint, including the waters off Taiwan, is unremarkable.

On July 29th, the Indonesian frigate KRI I Gusti Ngurah Rai wrapped up a two-day naval drill with the Russian navy in Vladivostok, part of Exercise Orruda 2026. Two weeks later, on August 12th, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the same ship, on its way home, would run a “passing exercise” with a Chinese frigate, the Honghe — not in Indonesian waters, not in the South China Sea, but east of Taiwan. Jakarta’s navy described it in the blandest terms available: communications drills, a resupply run, “a universal naval tradition.” Taipei was not reassured. Taiwan’s foreign ministry said it “sternly condemns” the move and complained that Beijing had “unilaterally claimed” Indonesian participation before Jakarta had said a word about where, or why, this was happening.

That gap — between Jakarta’s shrug and Taipei’s alarm — is the story. It is also a useful corrective to how most coverage of Chinese naval activity is currently framed. The default lens is bilateral and confrontational: China versus the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal, China versus Japan around the Senkakus, China versus Taiwan in the Strait. That lens catches real events, but it misses the connective tissue between them — a growing schedule of joint drills with third parties, each one small and individually deniable as “routine,” that collectively do something the confrontational track cannot: they make China’s presence in the surrounding water look normal to everyone except the state it is actually disputing with.

Indonesia and China have their own maritime dispute: Beijing’s nine-dash line overlaps Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone around the Natuna Islands, and Chinese fishing incursions there froze bilateral naval drills between 2015 and 2021. Those “Sharp Knife” exercises resumed in 2021 and have picked up pace since 2024. That history matters, but it is not what explains this month’s drill, because this drill did not happen anywhere near Natuna. It happened off Taiwan — waters Indonesia has no claim to and, until now, no naval presence in alongside China. Indonesia is simply the newest and most sensitive addition to a list that already includes Russia (the mature anchor partnership, most recently “Joint Sea-2026” in July), Malaysia (“Peace and Friendship 2025” in the Strait of Malacca last October), Cambodia (“Golden Dragon” at the newly built Ream Naval Base logistics center last spring), Thailand (“Blue Strike” and “Falcon Strike,” the latter launched again this month), and Vietnam (a Beibu Gulf coast guard and navy patrol series now past its fortieth iteration). All of this sits alongside a separate, unilateral track — a 100-plus-vessel show of force spanning the Yellow Sea to the western Pacific last December, and routine coast guard patrols around Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal.

The claim of this piece is that these two tracks are not separate stories about Chinese assertiveness. They are one story, working in tandem: the unilateral patrols draw the lines, and the bilateral drills erase them, by training a widening circle of regional navies — and the publics who read about them — to treat a Chinese warship’s presence near contested space as routine bilateral traffic rather than a signal.

The Indonesia case is the clearest evidence yet, because the location was Beijing’s choice, not Jakarta’s. Indonesia had no dispute-driven reason to be operating near Taiwan; its dispute with China sits in the Natuna Sea, hundreds of miles away. What Jakarta had was a frigate already at sea, returning from Russia, and a willingness to let Beijing choose the itinerary’s final leg. Global Times, writing for a domestic Chinese audience, called the drill’s timing “of great significance” — language China’s defense ministry does not use for routine port calls. The exercise also landed in the same week that Elbridge Colby, the U.S. Under Secretary of War for Policy, was in Jakarta courting Indonesia’s alignment. Chaining a Chinese passing exercise onto the tail of an Indonesian-Russian one, in waters adjacent to the most dangerous flashpoint in the region, at the exact moment Washington was making its own pitch, is not the profile of a routine bilateral courtesy call.

The strongest objection to this argument comes from analysts of Malaysia’s drills with China, who point out that Kuala Lumpur treats “Peace and Friendship” as a hedging tool it controls, not a concession Beijing extracted — the exercises are deliberately unsophisticated (humanitarian assistance, counter-piracy, no live fire), and Malaysia’s own defense establishment remains wary of Chinese assertiveness even as it participates. That is a fair description of Malaysia’s intent, and it likely holds for Cambodia and Thailand too: these governments are managing great-power competition on their own terms, not capitulating to it. But intent on the partner’s side does not determine the effect on Beijing’s side. Whatever Kuala Lumpur or Phnom Penh tell their own publics, every additional bilateral drill lowers the diplomatic and psychological cost, for Beijing, of being seen operating a warship near water someone else disputes. Indonesia’s case shows why that distinction matters: Jakarta’s intent was almost certainly routine — a frigate coming home. Beijing’s was not. It picked the coordinates.

None of this means China is close to fielding a formal coalition in the NATO sense; nothing here involves interoperability, shared command, or mutual defense. What it means is narrower and, in some ways, more useful to Beijing: a maintenance routine that makes normalization cumulative rather than a single dramatic claim to defend. Each additional partner adds one more government that has, at least once, treated a joint Chinese naval presence near contested water as unremarkable — and one more precedent for the next invitation.

The guest list is also instructive. The one claimant conspicuously absent from it is the Philippines — the country with the loudest ongoing disputes with Beijing, at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, and the one treaty ally the United States has directly on the South China Sea’s rim. Manila gets unilateral coercion, not invitations: coast guard patrols, water-cannon incidents, and jamming, rather than passing exercises. Every partner on the actual list — Russia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia — either has no U.S. mutual defense treaty or, like Thailand, treats its treaty commitments as dormant rather than active. That is not a coincidence; it is a selection criterion. Beijing is not inviting the states most capable of resisting the normalization effect. It is inviting the states most likely to accept it, and saving coercion for the one state structurally immune to the charm offensive.

What happens next

Base case (roughly 55 percent).  The Indonesia relationship deepens but recalibrates location. A higher-tempo revival of the Sharp Knife series continues, concentrated in Indonesian or South China Sea-adjacent waters near Natuna rather than repeated performances off Taiwan. Jakarta absorbs the diplomatic cost of this month’s episode privately — quiet reassurances to Taipei and Washington — while keeping the relationship with Beijing intact. The key assumption: the backlash from Taiwan and the attention from Washington made a second Taiwan-adjacent rerun more costly to Jakarta than its benefit to Beijing.

Downside case.  Beijing repeats the chaining tactic with a second partner within the next twelve months, most plausibly Brunei — the quietest South China Sea claimant, which in February 2025 already agreed to joint oil-and-gas development with Beijing in disputed waters it claims. A first-ever Brunei-China passing exercise, timed to overlap with a Brunei exercise involving another power and staged near a genuinely contested reef rather than international water, would confirm this is a repeatable playbook rather than an Indonesia-specific improvisation — and would be far harder for the U.S. and Japan to counter, since Brunei has never been a vocal claimant to rally around.

Upside case.  Taiwan’s public condemnation, paired with Washington’s trilateral drills with Australia and the Philippines, hardens into an explicit regional habit of naming the chaining tactic itself — not just the individual exercise — making it reputationally costly for the next candidate partner to accept the choreography. The coalition-of-drills strategy stalls not because China stops asking, but because fewer navies say yes.

The takeaway

Beijing did not build a coalition off Taiwan this month; it borrowed one, for two days, from a country with no stake in the fight. That is a cheaper and more durable tool than a formal alliance would be, and it will not show up as a single dramatic escalation — it will show up as a pattern, one passing exercise at a time.

Watch for:  whether Indonesia’s navy does it again, and where. A repeat performance near another sensitive location within the next two quarters would confirm the pattern; a retreat to home waters would suggest Jakarta drew its own line. Watch, too, whether Brunei’s navy — quiet for decades — puts to sea with a Chinese frigate for the first time following its 2025 oil-and-gas pledge in disputed waters.

Russia summons Japan’s ambassador to Moscow over Prime Minister Sanae ⁠Takaichi’s ‘anti-Russian’ remarks.

Russia has strongly protested to Japan’s ambassador ‌to Moscow the “anti-Russian” comments made by ⁠Prime Minister Sanae ⁠Takaichi after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited one of the disputed Kuril Islands for the first time last week.

Putin’s controversial visit to the territories last Thursday prompted Japan to summon Russia’s ambassador in protest.

Japan’s prime minister called Putin’s visit to the disputed islands “grave” and “absolutely unacceptable”. “The Northern Territories are inherently part of Japan’s territory, both historically and under international law,” she said.

“This visit has further hardened anti-Russian sentiment within Japan and has made the restoration of relations over the medium- to long- term more difficult,” Takaichi added.

Japan’s ambassador to Moscow left the meeting at Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Tuesday after 25 minutes without making any comment.

Disputed islands

Ties between Russia and Japan have long been dogged by the Kuril Islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories.

The islands were seized in 1945 by the Soviet Union, which went on to expel the Japanese population.

The dispute over the southern Kuril Islands – Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and the Habomai Islands – prevented Russia and Japan from signing a post-World War II peace treaty.

Deteriorating relations

On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Takaichi’s comments on Putin’s visit had “crossed the line of decency” and criticised Tokyo’s “militaristic line”.

Relations between Moscow and Tokyo have worsened since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Japan has joined other G7 countries in sanctioning Russia and giving financial and non-lethal defence aid to Ukraine, which recognises Japan’s claim over the disputed islands.

Japan indirectly supports Ukraine’s air defence by exporting domestically produced Patriot interceptor missiles to the United States, helping replenish US stockpiles that have been reduced by military aid to Kyiv.

Analysts said Putin’s visit to the Kurils could be a warning to Japan not to deepen its support for Ukraine by supplying Patriot missiles directly to Kyiv or working closer with NATO.

In recent years, Japan has relaxed pacifist policies by lifting a ban on lethal weapons exports. But it remains unable to supply lethal military equipment directly to a country at war, including Ukraine.

Aug. 18 (UPI) — Russia is warning Britain that there will be “consequences” following reports that Ukraine has struck within Russian territory with drones provided by London and made by British companies.

In a statement Tuesday, the Embassy of Russia to the United Kingdom accused London of escalating Russia’s war against Ukraine by providing the weaponry, while chastising it for “hypocritically professing a desire for peace.”

“London’s actions will inevitably carry consequences for which it will have to answer,” the embassy said.

“The deeper its involvement in the conflict and the greater its support of Kiev’s terrorist machinery, the higher the price it will pay.”

Britain has been an ardent supporter of Ukraine’s defense against Russia, which invaded its eastern neighbor in February 2022, launching the four-year war.

According to a July factsheet from the British government, London has committed more than $33 billion to Ukraine, including more than $21.6 billion in military assistance.

Britain has for years been focused on supplying Ukraine with drones, which have proved effective in Kyiv’s defense against the Kremlin. In April, its Ministry of Defense announced it would deliver at least 120,000 drones to Ukraine by the end of this year, a number it increased to 150,000 in June.

The threat from the embassy follows reports stating drones built by British companies were being used by Ukraine to hit targets within the borders of Russia, resulting in more than $47.3 billion in damages.

In response to the embassy, Britain’s Ministry of Defense told BBC News in a statement that London stands “shoulder to shoulder” with Kyiv.

“Russia should be in no doubt about the resolve of this government to stand against Russian aggression, in Ukraine and against the UK and our allies,” the ministry spokesperson said.

The attacks injured at least three people, including a girl, and damaged a Wildberries warehouse, Russian officials say.

Russian officials have reported more than 620 overnight drones targeting Moscow, in what appears to be one of Ukraine’s largest attacks on the Russian capital in years.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russian defences shot down 180 drones over the capital region between Monday evening and ‌5am (02:00 GMT) on Tuesday. He said 17 more drones were shot down en route to the capital later.

Russia’s state-run news agency TASS described the barrage as the largest drone attack on Moscow in the past two years.

The drone attack wounded three people, including a 10-year-old girl, Moscow region’s Governor Andrey Vorobyov said on Telegram. He said the “most serious consequences” were reported in the Pavlovsky Posad district, where a house burned down. Several more homes and a guesthouse were damaged in Bogorodsky district, he added.

A warehouse east of Moscow belonging to e-commerce giant Wildberries was damaged in Tuesday’s drone assault. In a statement, the company said its logistics complex sustained “minor damage” after “debris hit the wall of the building”.

Ukraine has struck multiple Wildberries warehouses in recent weeks, saying the company supplies components for Russian drones.

Five injured in Ukraine’s Kharkiv

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian air force reported shooting down or suppressing 111 of 147 “enemy” drone attacks overnight.

Kharkiv’s regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov said five people, including a nine-year-old boy, were injured in an overnight Russian attack on the city of Izyum.

Russian drones also sparked fires and damaged buildings in Kyiv region’s Brovary city, including an office building and warehouses, said Mayor Ihor Sapozhko.

With front-line fighting at a near standstill and talks frozen, Ukraine and Russia have significantly stepped up long-distance attacks, pushing the civilian death toll to its highest levels since the war’s first months in 2022.

In July alone, 437 civilians were killed in Ukraine, the highest monthly toll since May 2022, according to a United Nations tally.

Russian authorities reported 79 civilians killed in Ukrainian attacks in July, up from the previous month.