Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in China on Tuesday evening for a two-day visit centred on talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as Moscow and Beijing draw closer amid war, sanctions and an increasingly fractured global order.

Putin’s visit is the second face-to-face meeting he has held with Xi in less than a year and coincides with the 25th anniversary of the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, the agreement that formalised ties between Russia and China following decades of ideological rivalry and mutual suspicion.

The visit comes just days after United States President Donald Trump left Beijing following his own two-day visit to the Chinese capital for meetings with Xi.

Both Moscow and Beijing are navigating tricky relations with Washington, with analysts saying the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy has had the effect of pushing Russia and China even closer together.

Their deepening partnership also comes against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, mounting tensions around Iran, and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a crisis that has rattled global energy markets and renewed Beijing’s concerns over the security of its oil and gas supplies.

With one of the world’s most strategically vital waterways under threat, China has increasingly turned towards Russia as a reliable overland energy supplier.

Analysts say Xi’s decision to host Trump and Putin within the space of a week is no coincidence, reflecting Beijing’s attempt to cast itself as a trusted actor in an increasingly fragmented and volatile world order.

How have China-Russia relations changed over the decades?

China and Russia have long occupied a complicated place in each other’s histories. Once bound together through communist ideology and shared opposition to Western capitalism, the Soviet Union and Maoist China later became bitter rivals, with tensions along their 4,300km (2,670-mile) border bringing the two countries close to conflict during the Cold War.

However, that border has since transformed from a frontier of insecurity into one of strategic cooperation and trade.

Neither Xi nor Putin is a frequent international traveller. Putin is the subject of an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant over the war in Ukraine, while Xi rarely leaves China other than for carefully choreographed state visits. But both leaders have invested heavily in maintaining personal ties with each other.

The two have repeatedly called each other “friends”, and their relationship has deepened, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which pushed Moscow further into international isolation and forced the Kremlin to look southeastwards for trade amid Western sanctions.

“Russia and China look confidently towards the future,” Putin said in remarks carried by Russian state media ahead of the visit.

He said the two countries were “actively developing cooperation in politics, economics, defence, expanding cultural exchanges, and fostering interpersonal interaction”.

“In essence, jointly doing everything to deepen bilateral cooperation and advance global development for the wellbeing of both nations,” Putin added.

Why Russia needs China

China has become an economic lifeline for Russia as the country’s economy has shifted to a wartime footing, with two-way trade between the countries more than doubling between 2020 and 2024, when it reached $237bn for the year.

But the relationship is also uneven. While China is Russia’s largest trading partner, Russia accounts for only about four percent of China’s total international trade. China’s economy is also vastly larger, and Beijing holds considerably more leverage in negotiations between the two sides.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has become increasingly reliant on Chinese technology and manufacturing. A recent Bloomberg report found Russia was sourcing more than 90 percent of its sanctioned technology imports from China, including components with military and dual-use applications vital to drone production and other defence industries.

China has also emerged as a crucial buyer of Russian oil and other energy products at a time when European markets have largely closed to Moscow in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. With Western sanctions restricting Russia’s options, the Kremlin has few viable alternatives to China’s scale of demand.

Analysts say the imbalance means Beijing is often able to negotiate from a position of strength, securing access to Russian oil and gas at discounted prices while expanding its influence over Moscow’s economic future.

Why China still needs Russia

While the relationship is uneven, it is not one-sided. Russia provides something increasingly valuable in a turbulent world: secure access to vast energy resources beyond vulnerable maritime trade routes.

The war surrounding Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened Beijing’s concerns over energy security, given China’s heavy dependence on imported oil and gas passing through contested shipping lanes.

That has renewed attention on the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a long-delayed project expected to feature prominently in this week’s discussions.

If completed, the pipeline would transport 50 billion cubic metres of Russian gas annually to China via Mongolia, significantly expanding energy flows between the two countries.

But it is more than just an economic relationship. China also values Russia as a geopolitical partner. Both countries are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and frequently align diplomatically in opposition to US-led policies.

While analysts say China has been careful not to become formally tied to Moscow through a rigid military alliance, the two countries have still gradually reinforced their partnership through increasingly regular joint military exercises, including the “Joint Sea” naval drills that began in 2012.

Last year, China and Russia launched fresh naval drills in the Sea of Japan near the Russian port of Vladivostok, with exercises focused on submarine rescue, anti-submarine warfare, air defence, missile defence and maritime combat operations. Analysts say the drills help signal strategic alignment between Beijing and Moscow without the mutual defence commitments of a formal alliance.

Experts say the strength of the partnership lies in its flexibility. While Western governments have often portrayed the relationship as fragile and driven largely by a shared opposition to the West, analysts say, it may prove more durable because it is rooted in shared economic and strategic interests rather than ideology alone.

There appears to be a shift in the years-long conflict in Ukraine.

Last weekend, Ukrainian forces struck deeper into Russian territory, piercing its air defences in a large strike on the Moscow region.

This came a week after fears of a Ukrainian attack forced Russia to scale down its annual Victory Day parade.

Kyiv’s also been relentlessly striking Russia’s oil facilities and military logistics, as it tries to disrupt supplies to the front lines.

All this as Russian missiles and drones continue to target sites across Ukraine.

So, where does the war stand in its fifth year? Does any one side have the upper hand?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Peter Zalmayev – Director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative

Pavel Felgenhauer – Russian foreign policy analyst

Mark Episkopos – Research fellow at the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program

China’s Xi Jinping is hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin, just days after welcoming Donald Trump to Beijing. The Chinese leader is set to discuss energy security and trade, while balancing access to European markets, as Al Jazeera’s Katrina Yu explains.

May 19 (UPI) — The Trump administration has issued temporary Russia sanctions relief for a third straight month, extending a waiver allowing the delivery and sale of Russian oil already loaded onto tankers at sea amid the ongoing energy crisis cause by the U.S. war with Iran.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the 30-day reprieve on social media, saying it will “provide the most vulnerable nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea.”

“This extension will provide additional flexibility, and we will work with these nations to provide specific licenses as needed. This general license will help stabilize the physical crude market and ensure oil reaches the most energy-vulnerable countries,” he said in a statement.

The United States has imposed thousands of sanctions on Russia since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, in an effort to cut it off from a lucrative revenue source to fund its war.

The sanctions relief — first issued on March 5 to permit the sale of Russian crude to India before being broadened March 12 — may have helped Russia generate ab additional $150 million per day in oil revenue, or $3.3 billion to $5 billion in the month of March alone, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in mid-April that about $10 billion worth of Russian oil was at sea, condemning the sanctions relief by stating “every dollar paid for Russian oil is money for the war.”

Democrats and Ukrainians have been sharply critical about the sanctions relief, describing it as undercutting their years of work to try to hobble Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to make war.

Following the announcement of the extension on Monday, Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts described the waiver as “delivering another dangerous and indefensible gift” to Putin.

“Every additional dollar the Kremlin earns from this license helps Putin finance his illegal war against Ukraine and kill innocent Ukrainians,” the Democratic pair said in a joint statement.

The Trump administration initially issued the waiver as oil prices surged in response to the war in the Middle East, which began Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel launched joint attacks on Iran.

Shaheen, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Warren, ranking member of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, criticized the Trump administration over its reasoning that the waiver is to support vulnerable countries, stating that justification “would be more credible had it not launched this war, or if it had used policy tools to limit the prices Russia could push on those countries.”

“Instead, the Trump administration has helped Russia charge more for its oil cargoes by removing the risk of sanctions,” they said.

“Continuing to show weakness like this will only invite more aggression and put a just end to the war in Ukraine further away.”

World Gymnastics has lifted all restrictions on Russian and Belarusian athletes with immediate effect.

Athletes from both countries were banned from international competition in March 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

They were subsequently permitted to compete as neutrals towards the end of 2024 but will now be allowed to return to international competitions under their national flags.

World Gymnastics confirmed the decision in a statement, external following a meeting of its executive committee in Egypt last weekend.

The reversal applies across all five disciplines governed by World Gymnastics, including artistic, rhythmic, acrobatic and aerobic gymnastics as well as trampolining.

Russia has historically been one of the strongest countries in gymnastics.

They won two golds and 10 medals overall at the Tokyo Olympics in 2020, competing under the Russian Olympic Committee banner, before being banned from Paris 2024.

The move to allow athletes from Russia and Belarus to take part under their flags follows a similar decision by World Aquatics in April while the International Judo Federation lifted its ban last November.

The International Paralympic Committee removed its suspension on athletes from the two countries competing last year and they took part in the 2026 Winter Paralympics in Milan-Cortina.

Russia has announced a successful test of its long-delayed Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which President Vladimir Putin now says will be operationally deployed later this year. The weapon, developed to deliver multiple nuclear warheads over great distances, has had a very mixed track record of testing so far, and was once planned to be fielded in 2020. All this makes today’s announcements more significant, although they have yet to be independently verified.

The test-launch from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region took place at 11:15 a.m. Moscow time today, according to the Kremlin. Around half an hour later, Russian officials said that the missile hit its target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East.

The commander of the Strategic Rocket Forces, Sergei Karakayev, informed Putin of the successful test. The Russian leader monitored the launch via video link from his office bunker.

Putin called the test a “major event and unconditional success.”

“The positive results of the Sarmat missile system launch will allow us to deploy the first missile regiment armed with this missile system to combat duty in the Uzhur formation of Krasnoyarsk Krai by the end of this year,” he added, referring to the 62nd Red Banner Rocket Division at Uzhur in Siberia.  

Putin says the missile’s range could exceed 35,000 kilometers (21,748 miles).

The RS-28 Sarmat, known to NATO by the codename SS-29 Satan II, is Russia’s new-generation heavy ICBM, intended to replace the Soviet-era R-36M2 system (SS-18 Satan).

A video shows the launch of the R-36M2 ICBM (SS-18 Satan):

Russian Intercontinental ballistic missile SS-18 Satan R36M2 Voevoda

The Sarmat is a silo-launched, liquid-fueled, nuclear-armed ICBM. The missile will reportedly have a host of capabilities intended to defeat ballistic missile defenses, ranging from decoys and other countermeasures to a fractional orbital bombardment capability, and independent post-boost vehicles (IPBV). There have even been suggestions that it could carry a payload of multiple hypersonic boost-glide vehicles.

While these features are all relatively novel, the fact that the Sarmat is liquid-fueled might seem like something of a throwback to the Cold War. However, as we have discussed in the past, it does bring certain benefits:

A liquid-fueled ICBM might seem somewhat dated, but it does offer the advantage of a more capable and dynamic propulsion arrangement. But unlike a solid fuel design, it has historically been difficult to keep these types of missiles in a fueled state indefinitely, often meaning that launch crews had to go through a lengthy process of fueling the weapon shortly before launch. However, a hydrazine-based liquid rocket fuel with nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) as the oxidizer provides a more stable, less corrosive option that allows for long-term storage of missiles in a fueled, ready state when combined with the right component materials and environmental controls.

Details of the missile were presented by Putin back in 2018, at the same time he unveiled several previously unknown strategic weapons systems.

An official video of the Sarmat released by the Russian Ministry of Defense in 2018:

Ракетный комплекс «Сармат»

The first successful test launch of the Sarmat took place in 2022, also from Plesetsk. However, it was followed by a failed test launch in February 2023. A further test in September 2024 was also unsuccessful, leading to the destruction of the Yubileynaya test silo at Plesetsk. 

The original plan was for the Sarmat to become operational in 2020, something that obviously did not come to pass.

Exactly what has caused the problems is unclear. The delays could be due to technical issues with the missile, Russia’s sluggish economy, or, very likely, a combination of factors. 

Indeed, there were delays in the development of the Sarmat even before Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which has led to international sanctions and other strains on the country’s defense industrial base.

On the other hand, the slow progress made by the Sarmat so far means that it will now enter service after the demise of the New START Treaty, which expired in 2021.

New START had placed hard limits on the number of deployed and non-deployed land-based ICBMs, total available launch tubes for submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and nuclear-capable heavy bombers that Russia and the United States could have in total. The agreement also set a firm limit on total deployed and non-deployed systems.

With those limits now gone, Russia will be able to replace the R-36M with Sarmat on a one-for-one basis, while still maintaining its other ICBMs if it desires, and moving ahead with other strategic weapons modernization programs, including the Avangard nuclear-armed hypersonic boost-glide vehicle.

A video released in conjunction with the fielding of the Avangard missile complex at the Dombarovsky Strategic Rocket Forces base:

Ракетный комплекс «Авангард»

Even under New START regulations, Russia had fewer than 520 deployed “launchers” as of September 2018, with the treaty allowing for a maximum of 700 such systems. These “launchers” in this context comprise land-based ICBMs, SLBM launch tubes, and heavy bombers.

Meanwhile, the lifting of New START limits on America’s nuclear arsenal means that, at this point, it is unclear whether or not the new LGM-35A Sentinel ICBMs will carry multiple warheads. Like the Sarmat, the Sentinel has faced issues, chief among them major delays and spiraling costs, driven heavily by complexities associated with building new infrastructure. Regardless, the ongoing development of the Sentinel in the United States is also spurring work on the Sarmat program.

At this stage, it remains to be seen whether the apparent success of the test today allows the Sarmat to enter service before the end of the year. So far, its test history has been distinctly patchy. If the missile can be perfected, however, it could pave the way for Russia to deploy even more strategic missiles in the future, with the potential for triggering a new arms race.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Spain, Netherlands, Ireland, Iceland and Slovenia all withdrew in protest against Israel’s participation in the midst of its war on Gaza.

As the Eurovision Song Contest took to the stage for the Saturday night final in Vienna, thousands protested outside against Israel’s inclusion, and five countries boycotted the event over the genocidal war on Gaza.

Protesters marched through the Austrian capital to highlight what critics described as a double standard. The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) organisers refused to exclude Israel, despite banning Russia following its invasion of Ukraine four years ago.

Eurovision, which attracted 166 million viewers last year, is seeing the largest boycott in its 70-year history.

Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Iceland and Slovenia all withdrew because of Israel’s inclusion, with some of their national broadcasters refusing to air the show.

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who has emerged as one of Israel’s strongest critics in Europe, said on Friday that the decision puts Spain on “the right side of history”.

Last month, more than 1,000 artists called on fans to boycott Eurovision in an open letter against Israel’s participation. Among the artists were outspoken critics of Israel, Macklemore and Paloma Faith. Macklemore has released songs protesting against Israel’s war in Gaza.

Double standards

On Monday, Amnesty International Secretary-General Agnes Callamard denounced the EBU for allowing Israel to participate.

“The failure of the European Broadcasting Union to suspend Israel from Eurovision, as it did with Russia, is an act of cowardice and an illustration of blatant double standards when it comes to Israel,” she said.

Reporting from Vienna, Al Jazeera’s Charlie Angela said 2,000 demonstrators gathered in the city earlier on Saturday to protest against Israel’s participation.

Angela reported that protesters accused the competition of normalising Israel’s actions in Gaza, adding that Eurovision was “bending over backwards” to justify including Israel while excluding Russia.

Russia has faced a widespread cultural boycott following the Ukraine invasion. It is banned from international football tournaments, and FIFA and UEFA have excluded Russian domestic teams from all competitions, including the Champions League.

The winner of Eurovision will be selected by both a professional jury and TV viewers voting for their favourite act.

Austria won the competition last year, with Israel second.

The Israeli government was later accused of unfairly influencing voting. New rules have since been introduced.

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has issued a warning to UK tourists

The Foreign Office has warned Brits against “all travel” to a particular country due to “risks and threats”. Travellers are advised to avoid Russia entirely owing to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

In an update published on its website on May 5 and reconfirmed on May 14, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) stated it “advises against all travel to Russia”.

It said: “FCDO advises against all travel to Russia due to the risks and threats from its continuing invasion of Ukraine.” These include:

• Security incidents, such as drone attacks, and Russian air defence activity
• Lack of flights to return to the UK
• Limited ability for the UK government to provide support

The FCDO added: “There is an increased risk of British nationals being detained in Russia, including if the Russian authorities suspect you of engaging in or supporting activities against Russian law, even if activities took place outside Russia.

“Russia has a track record of targeting foreign nationals and holding them in detention as leverage over other countries. FCDO’s ability to assist you in these circumstances is extremely limited.

“There is also a high likelihood terrorists will try to carry out attacks, including in major cities.”

On its safety and security page, the FCDO noted that terrorist attacks have occurred across Moscow, St Petersburg and other Russian cities in recent years. This includes an attack at Crocus City Concert Hall in Krasnogorsk near Moscow in 2024 in which 145 people were killed.

Limited UK government support

While the British Embassy in Moscow and British Consulate in Ekaterinburg remain operational, the FCDO cautioned that the situation “could change at short notice”.

“In-person UK government support in Russia is limited,” it stated. “It is very limited in parts of Russia because of the security situation and the size of the country, particularly in the North Caucasus.”

Should you find yourself in Russia requiring assistance, you can ring the FCDO’s 24-hour helpline on +7 495 956 7200 and select the option for consular services for British nationals. Alternatively, you can contact the Russian emergency services on 112.

It’s also crucial to be aware that your travel insurance may be rendered void if you travel against FCDO guidance. For further details, visit the FCDO website here.

Frenchman Olivier Assayas’ canvas is either highly personal (“Suspended Time”) or deliriously global (“Carlos”). He can be hard to pin down as a filmmaker, except when the material does the restraining for him, as the intermittently arresting but overplayed piece of political theater “The Wizard of the Kremlin” proves.

Operating off the same-named novel by Giuliano da Empoli, about a behind-the-scenes manipulator named Vadim Baranov helping to orchestrate Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s rise to power, Assayas and co-screenwriter-journalist Emmanuel Carrère have fashioned a whirlwind shadow biopic of 21st century tsardom that blends the real story (Jude Law is Putin) and an invented one (Paul Dano is Baranov) with all the wisdom-in-hindsight energy of an old-school epic dramatizing How Things Came to Be.

The problem, though, from its clichéd interview framing (Jeffrey Wright plays an American journalist visiting the retired Baranov at his estate) to the tediously narrated flashback structure, is that the movie never lives and breathes inside its stitched-together moments, preferring to be a relentless, country-hopping talkfest in which characters opine as if fully aware of the consequential era they’re in, fully ready to explain it.

That doesn’t apply to a scarily good Law, who makes the most of a curiously underwritten featured-player part. When given center stage, his Putin is commanding, reminding us of the real sinister power in the room. But everyone else in “The Wizard of the Kremlin” is mouthpiece first, character second. Post-Cold War Russia’s swerve away from clunky democracy is as fascinating a turn of events as geopolitics gets, but it’s been reduced to an extended lecture on power, divvied up into timeline hits (from Yeltsin’s nascent kleptocracy to Putin’s violent fearmongering) and speaking parts made of aphorisms and commentary. (“If you don’t grab power, power grabs you” or “Russia has always needed a strongman,” etc.)

The Zelig-like Baranov character — understood to be a liberalized avatar for inner circle strategist Vladislav Surkov — is an interesting mix of cynicism and opportunity. He goes from being an idealist directing avant-garde theater to honing his manipulation chops making reality TV and eventually helping a savvy business magnate (Will Keen as Boris Berezovsky) fashion Putin into a palatable, malleable politician for an electorate hungry for stability. But when the ex-spymaster’s cold lust to return Russia to imperial glory becomes vengeful and warlike, Baranov’s principles give way to a ruthless impulse.

If only the sorely miscast Dano had the weight to sell this guided tour of corruption — a role that could have been in the vein of one of Scorsese’s charismatic motormouth narrators. Affectedly hushed and conspiratorial in nearly every scene, his accent an afterthought, the normally evocative actor comes off more like a one-note Bond villain in training than someone whose smarts and complexities are meant to intrigue. There’s also little chemistry in his scenes with Alicia Vikander, herself struggling to find dimension in a trophy girlfriend, whose greatest skill in an ever-changing Russia seems to be as an oligarch whisperer.

As “Wizard” barrels along, content to be aimlessly scornful and sloppy, it’s hard not to be reminded of Assayas’ much more successfully finessed “Carlos” and how this effort feels like a truncated miniseries, trimmed of nuance and emotion. It’s sketched out for cynical skimming rather than deeper psychological consideration.

Russia launched more than 1,400 drones and 56 missiles into Ukraine on Wednesday and Thursday.

Much of the onslaught was aimed at the capital Kyiv, days after Russia threatened to do so only if Ukraine attacked its Victory Day parade in Moscow’s Red Square on May 9. It is a major Russian holiday commemorating the end of the Second World War.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had proposed a ceasefire, beginning as early as May 5.

Moscow did not respond until May 7, and presented its peace proposal as a unilateral initiative, accompanied by threats to punish Kyiv if it did not respect its terms.

Moscow said Russian front line units would “launch a massive missile strike” on central Kyiv if attacked.

Forty-three Russian drones and a number of ballistic missiles were launched into Ukraine on May 9, and another 27 drones on May 10. It was not until May 11 that Ukraine had a day of peace.

Moscow justified these attacks as reciprocity for Ukrainian assaults. Kyiv accused Moscow of breaking its own ceasefire.

Once the ceasefire was over, on the night of May 11, Russia launched 216 drones and followed up with a massive strike involving 892 drones overnight on May 12 and during the day on May 13.

The night of May 13-14 was worse with 675 drones accompanied by 56 missiles.

Official Ukrainian reports recorded strikes in at least 20 locations in the capital, including a nine-storey apartment building where 12 people were killed in the collapse.

“These are ordinary residential buildings, a school, a veterinary clinic, and other purely civilian infrastructure,” wrote Zelenskyy on his Telegram messaging channel. “These are definitely not the actions of those who believe that the war is coming to an end.”

Throughout the week, Ukraine said it shot down 92 percent of the 1,930 drones launched, close to Zelenskyy’s 95 percent kill target, with 41 out of 57 missiles downed.

Russia’s army slows down

Russia’s onslaught of came as its armies in eastern Ukraine slowed down.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, estimated they had advanced by an average of 2.9 sq km (1.1 sq miles) in the first four months of 2026, compared with 9.76 sq km (3.76 sq miles) a day in the first third of 2025 and 14.9 sq km (5.8 sq miles) a day between October 2024 and March 2025.

Two weeks into May, that daily average had already dropped to 2.63 sq km (1 sq mile), suggesting Russia’s advance is slowing almost daily.

The ISW recently estimated that Ukraine made net territorial gains of 116 sq km (45 sq miles) in April – its first such advance since a September 2023 counteroffensive.

Some of that success is attributed to Ukraine’s successful use of drones behind the front lines.

On May 8, the Azov Corps of Ukraine’s National Guard announced it had “returned to Mariupol”, four years almost to the day since it surrendered control of the city to Russian forces.

The Corps filmed drone strikes on Russian diesel tankers, army trucks and other logistics 160 km (99 miles) behind the front line along the T-0509 highway, which feeds the Russian war effort in the Donetsk region.

“The strike depth will increase,” said the Azov Corps.

Their strikes are part of a broader Ukrainian campaign to hit Russian logistics at middle ranges of about 120-150 km (75-90 miles) from the front line as announced by Zelenskyy at the end of April.

“This primarily involves military logistics, enemy warehouses and headquarters, air defence systems and other components,” he said, adding that Ukraine had increased its strikes at this depth five-fold during the past year.

“We’re already carrying out about five thousand successful strikes at a depth of 20 plus km (12 miles) every month,” said Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov this week.

Also this week, a Russian military reporter said Ukrainian Hornet drones were targeting Russian logistics on roads closer to the frontlines.

“Although the front line is more than 35 km away from the M-30, it is currently paralysed due to enemy [First Person View drone] surveillance,” wrote the Russian reporter.

“In 2014-2015 the front line was closer, but the M-30 was safer,” he added. “This is because many people think that if the front line moves away from large cities and logistics routes they become safer, but for some reason no one takes into account that the range of enemy drones, even FPV surveillance, increases more rapidly relative to the movement of the front line.”

Russia’s declining performance is not due to lack of effort.

“The enemy has intensified offensive actions along almost the entire front and is regrouping its troops,” said Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii on May 8. “The most tense area is currently the Pokrovsk direction, where the Russian aggressor has concentrated about 106,000 personnel,” he said.

Since March, Ukraine has increased strikes against Russian oil infrastructure as many as 1,700 km (1,056 miles) inside Russia, in an effort to starve its war machine of diesel and export revenue.

Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, said the Ukraine Security Service (SBU) hit the Yaroslavl oil refinery and Perm oil pumping station on May 8 – Perm sends oil in four directions across Russia to refineries and export terminals.

Russian media reports said the fire from a previous strike on the pumping station was not put out until May 11.

The SBU also said it hit the Perm refinery that day.

During the week, Ukrainian forces struck drone bases and a radar research centre in Rostov-on-Don, the Bryansk chemical plant, an explosives warehouse in Nizhny Novgorod and other targets.

Fedorov on Monday thanked Germany for investing $1bn in Ukraine’s deep strike capabilities, when his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, visited Kyiv.

“Overall, Ukraine’s positions right now – on the front line, in our long-range sanctions, and in our joint results with partners – are the strongest they have been in years,” said Zelenskyy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy strongly condemned Russia after a missile strike on a residential apartment building in Kyiv killed at least 24 people, including three children.

The attack occurred during one of the heaviest aerial bombardments on the Ukrainian capital this year and further intensified international concern over the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine. Rescue operations continued for more than a full day before emergency workers completed searches through the destroyed structure in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district.

The strike formed part of a broader wave of Russian drone and missile attacks across Ukraine that officials say targeted multiple regions over consecutive days.

Zelenskiy Visits the Site of the Attack

Zelenskiy visited the destroyed apartment building on Friday, laying red roses at the site and meeting rescue workers who had spent more than twenty eight hours searching for survivors beneath the rubble.

In remarks shared through social media, the Ukrainian president praised emergency responders for their continuous efforts and accused Russia of deliberately destroying civilian lives.

According to Zelenskiy, the missile strike effectively destroyed an entire section of the residential building. Ukrainian officials stated that initial analysis suggested the attack involved a recently manufactured Russian Kh 101 cruise missile.

The Ukrainian leader once again appealed to international allies for stronger air defence support and increased pressure on Moscow.

Heavy Civilian Casualties

Kyiv authorities declared Friday a day of mourning in memory of the victims. Flags across the capital were lowered to half mast, and public entertainment events were cancelled or postponed.

The Interior Ministry reported that rescue teams removed approximately 3,000 cubic meters of rubble during the operation. Hundreds of emergency personnel participated in the search efforts.

Officials confirmed that 24 bodies were recovered from the site, while approximately 30 people were rescued alive. Nearly 50 individuals were injured, and hundreds required psychological support following the attack.

The deaths of children among the victims further intensified public grief and anger across Ukraine.

Russia Intensifies Air Campaign

Ukrainian authorities stated that Russia launched more than 1,500 drones along with dozens of missiles during attacks carried out over two consecutive days this week.

The strikes extended beyond Kyiv and affected western regions of Ukraine located far from active frontline combat zones. Officials reported that six people were killed during attacks in western Ukraine on Wednesday.

The scale of the aerial assault highlights Russia’s continuing ability to conduct large coordinated attacks despite prolonged international sanctions and battlefield losses.

Moscow did not immediately comment specifically on the apartment building strike. Russia consistently denies deliberately targeting civilians, although residential buildings, hospitals, schools, and energy infrastructure have repeatedly been damaged throughout the conflict.

Ukraine Also Conducts Cross Border Attacks

The conflict has increasingly involved reciprocal long range attacks by both sides.

Russian regional officials stated that Ukrainian drone strikes killed four people, including a child, in the Russian city of Ryazan. Authorities reported damage to apartment buildings and an industrial facility during the incident.

Ukraine has expanded drone operations against targets inside Russia over the course of the war, aiming to disrupt military infrastructure, industrial production, and logistical operations linked to Moscow’s military campaign.

These developments reflect the increasingly transnational nature of the conflict, with civilian populations on both sides facing growing security risks.

The Continuing Humanitarian Crisis

The attack on Kyiv underscores the severe humanitarian consequences of the war, which began with Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced since the start of the conflict, while repeated strikes on civilian infrastructure have damaged homes, hospitals, schools, transportation systems, and energy networks across the country.

International organizations and human rights groups have repeatedly raised concerns about civilian casualties and the destruction of non military targets during the war.

At the same time, the prolonged conflict has placed enormous economic and psychological pressure on Ukrainian society as cities continue to face the threat of missile and drone attacks.

Analysis

The deadly strike on Kyiv demonstrates how the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to evolve into a prolonged campaign involving large scale aerial warfare and attacks far beyond frontline battle zones.

For Ukraine, the attack reinforces the urgent need for stronger air defence systems capable of intercepting missiles and drones before they reach urban areas. Zelenskiy’s renewed appeals to allies reflect growing concerns that Ukraine’s defensive capabilities remain under intense strain as Russia increases the scale and frequency of aerial assaults.

For Russia, sustained missile and drone attacks appear aimed at weakening Ukrainian morale, exhausting defence systems, and increasing pressure on the government through continued civilian disruption.

However, such attacks also carry significant international consequences. Civilian casualties, especially involving children and residential buildings, strengthen global criticism of Moscow and may encourage additional military and financial support for Ukraine from Western allies.

The conflict additionally illustrates the changing character of modern warfare, where advanced missiles, drones, and long range strikes allow both sides to target infrastructure and urban centers far from traditional battlefields.

Despite ongoing diplomatic discussions in various international forums, there remains little indication of a near term political settlement. Instead, the war increasingly appears locked in a prolonged phase of escalation, attrition, and humanitarian suffering.

The strike on Kyiv therefore stands not only as a tragic individual event but also as a broader symbol of the continuing devastation caused by one of the most consequential conflicts in modern Europe.

With information from Reuters.

President Zelenskyy says rescue operations continue after Russia used ‘more than 1,560 drones’ during its overnight attacks.

Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones targeting Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, killing at least three people and wounding 40 others, Ukrainian authorities have said.

The Ukrainian military said on Thursday that the overnight strikes hit six districts of Kyiv and another six in the surrounding areas. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba said attacks had targeted ports in the southern Odesa region and railways.

In a post on X, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said rescue operations were continuing following an attack on a nine-storey building in Kyiv after Russia launched “more than 670 attack drones and 56 missiles against Ukraine”.

“In total, since midnight yesterday, Russia has used more than 1,560 drones against our cities and communities. These are definitely not the actions of those who believe the war is coming to an end,” he wrote on Thursday.

“It is important that partners do not remain silent about this strike. And it is equally important to continue supporting the protection of our skies,” Zelenskyy added.

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, said 40 people were wounded in the attacks, including two children, while Ukrainian emergency services said three people had been killed.

Reporting from Kyiv, Al Jazeera’s Audrey Macalpine said people are still feared trapped under the rubble of the building.

Macalpine said it was one of Russia’s largest attacks of the war, “in a single 36-hour period just by sheer number of drones”.

The attack comes as a setback for efforts to end the war after United States President Donald Trump raised faint hopes for peace by brokering a three-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow last week, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin suggested the war could be winding down.

The truce – put in place as Putin presided over a scaled-down military parade in Red Square to mark the anniversary of World War II victory – was marred by allegations of violations by both sides.

Ukraine and Russia launched long-range drone attacks immediately after it ended on Tuesday.

The Kremlin has poured cold water on the idea that Putin’s vague comments, issued Saturday, about the war “heading to an end” could mean a softening in Moscow’s position.

On Wednesday, it repeated its demand that Ukraine fully withdraw from the eastern Donbas region before a ceasefire and full-scale peace talks can take place.

Kyiv has rejected such a move as tantamount to capitulation.

BEIJING — President Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday for his hotly anticipated talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the Iran war, trade and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

The meat of the summit doesn’t start until Thursday, when the leaders hold bilateral talks, visit the Temple of Heaven, where Chinese emperors once prayed for bumper crops, and take part in a formal banquet. But the Chinese offered Trump a pomp-filled welcome, literally rolling out the red carpet for him after Air Force One landed in the Chinese capital.

The president was greeted by Chinese Vice President Han Zheng; Xie Feng, China’s ambassador to Washington; Ma Zhaoxu, executive vice minister of foreign affairs; and the U.S. envoy to Beijing, David Perdue.

The welcoming ceremony included a military honor guard, a military band and some 300 Chinese youths waving Chinese and American flags and chanting, “Welcome, welcome! Warm welcome!” as Trump made his way to his waiting limousine. The youth greeters were decked out in white and robin’s egg blue outfits that matched the paint job of the iconic presidential plane.

President Trump walks with China’s Vice President Han Zheng during an arrival ceremony Wednesday at Beijing Capital International Airport, as Eric and Lara Trump, Elon Musk, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer follow.

(Mark Schiefelbein / Associated Press)

“We’re the two superpowers,” Trump told reporters as he departed the White House on Tuesday for the long flight to Beijing. “We’re the strongest nation on Earth in terms of military. China’s considered second.”

While Trump likes to project a sense of strength, the visit occurs at a delicate moment for his presidency as his popularity at home has been weighed down by the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran and rising inflation as a consequence of that conflict. The Republican president is seeking a win by signing deals with China to buy more American soybeans, beef and aircraft, saying he’ll be talking with Xi about trade “more than anything else.”

The Trump administration hopes to begin establishing a Board of Trade with China to address differences between the countries. The board could help prevent the trade war ignited last year after Trump’s tariff hikes, an action China countered through its control of rare earth minerals. That led to a one-year truce last October.

But Trump is visiting Beijing when Iran continues to dominate his domestic agenda. The war has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, stranding oil and natural gas tankers and causing energy prices to spike to levels that could sabotage global economic growth. The U.S. president declared that Xi didn’t need to assist in resolving the conflict, even though Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was in Beijing last week.

Fellow rescuers carry the coffins of two members of the civil defense who were reportedly killed in Israeli airstrikes in Nabatieh the previous day, during their funeral in the southern city of Sidon on May 13, 2026. Israel hammered south Lebanon with strikes on May 12 ahead of talks between the two countries in Washington, as Beirut reported 380 people killed in Israeli attacks since an April 17 ceasefire took effect.

(Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP via Getty Images)

“We have a lot of things to discuss. I wouldn’t say Iran is one of them, to be honest with you, because we have Iran very much under control,” Trump told reporters Tuesday.

Taiwan high on the agenda

The status of Taiwan also will be a major topic as China is displeased with U.S. plans to sell weapons to the self-governing island, which the Chinese government claims as part of its own territory.

Trump told reporters on Monday that he would be discussing with Xi an $11 billion weapons package for Taiwan that the U.S. administration authorized in December but has not yet begun fulfilling. The arms package is the largest ever approved for Taiwan.

But Trump has demonstrated greater ambivalence toward Taiwan, an approach that’s raising questions about whether the U.S. leader could be open to dialing back support for the island democracy.

The Taiwanese flag at Democracy Boulevard is lowered at the end of the day as the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall is seen in the background in Taipei on May 13, 2026.

(I-Hwa Cheng/AFP via Getty Images)

At the same time, Taiwan — as the world’s leading chipmaker — has become essential for the development of artificial intelligence, with the U.S. importing more goods so far this year from Taiwan than China. Trump has sought to use Biden-era programs and his own deals to bring more chipmaking to America.

The Chinese Communist Party’s news outlet, People’s Daily, published a strongly worded editorial ahead of Trump’s arrival underscoring that Taiwan is “the first red line that cannot be crossed in China-U.S. relations” and is “the biggest point of risk” between the two nations.

Trump was already portraying the trip as a success before he even left White House grounds. He openly mused about Xi’s planned reciprocal visit to the U.S. later this year, lamenting that the White House ballroom under construction would not be completed in time to properly fete the Chinese leader.

“We’re going to have a great relationship for many, many decades to come,” Trump said of the U.S. and China.

Counter snipers and other security forces watch over Air Force One while refueling at Joint Base Elmendorf during a trip with US President Donald J. Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, on May 12, 2026. Donald Trump was due in Beijing on May 13, 2026 on the first visit to China by a US president in nearly a decade, as he seeks to ramp up trade despite potential friction over Taiwan and Iran.

(Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

Trump embarked on Air Force One for the big meeting with a coterie of aides, family members and business world titans, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Tesla and SpaceX’s Elon Musk. While en route to Beijing, he posted on social media that his “first request” to Xi during the visit will be to ask the Chinese leader to bolster the presence of U.S. firms in China.

“I will be asking President Xi, a Leader of extraordinary distinction, to ‘open up’ China so that these brilliant people can work their magic, and help bring the People’s Republic to an even higher level!” Trump wrote.

Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon and China’s President Xi Jinping attend a welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People on Tuesday, in Beijing.

(Maxim Shemetov—Pool / Getty Images)

Despite Trump’s outward confidence, China appears to be entering the meeting from “a much stronger place,” said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser on Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

China would like to reduce tech restrictions on accessing computer chips and find ways to reduce tariffs, among other goals.

“But even if they don’t get much on any of those things, as long as there’s not a blow-up in the meeting and President Trump doesn’t go away and look to re-escalate, China basically comes out stronger,” Kennedy said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met on Wednesday to discuss economic and trade issues at Incheon International Airport, just west of the South Korean capital of Seoul, according to the Chinese state run Xinhua News Agency.

Bystanders are kept back by police tape as they film the motorcade of President Donald Trump as he arrives at the Four Seasons Hotel on Wednesday in Beijing.

(Kevin Frayer / Getty Images)

Trump wants 3-way nuclear arms deal

Trump also intends to raise the idea of the U.S., China and Russia signing a pact that would set limits on the nuclear weapons each nation keeps in its arsenal, according to a senior Trump administration official who briefed reporters ahead of the trip. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House.

China has previously been cool to entering such a pact. Beijing’s arsenal, according to Pentagon estimates, exceeds more than 600 operational nuclear warheads and is far from parity with the U.S. and Russia, which each are estimated to have more than 5,000 nuclear warheads.

The last nuclear arms pact, known as the New START treaty, between Russia and the United States expired in February, removing any caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than a half-century. As the treaty was set to expire, Trump rejected a call by Russia to extend the two-country deal for another year and called for “a new, improved, and modernized” deal that includes China.

The Pentagon estimates China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.

Madhani, Weissert and Boak write for the Associated Press. Boak reported from Washington. AP writers Darlene Superville in Washington, Huizhong Wu in Bangkok, Hyung-jin Kim in Seoul, South Korea, and Kanis Leung in Hong Kong contributed to this report.

One killed and four others wounded in attacks on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, local administration chief says.

Russia and Ukraine have resumed air attacks after a United States-brokered three-day truce expired, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying more than 200 drones were used to attack Ukraine overnight.

Russian aerial attacks across Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region on Tuesday morning killed at least one person and injured four others, according to regional administration chief Oleksandr Ganzha.

Russian drones also hit energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region, causing outages, and struck residential buildings and a kindergarten in the Kyiv region, according to local authorities. Russia also carried out attacks on the regions of Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy and Chernihiv, according to authorities.

More than 200 long-range drones were used in the wave of attacks, Zelenskyy said. “Russia itself chose to end the partial silence that had lasted for several days,” he said in a post on X.

Russia’s military, meanwhile, said its defences downed 27 Ukrainian drones over the regions of Belgorod, Voronezh and Rostov.

The exchange of aerial attacks came after the expiry of a 72-hour truce announced by US President Donald Trump on Friday, which he said he hoped would mark “the beginning of the end” of Russia’s four-year war on Ukraine.

The May 9-11 truce overlapped with Russia’s Victory Day, which celebrates the defeat of Nazi Germany in the second world war.

But even before it expired, both sides accused each other of violating the truce by attacking civilians.

Zelenskyy said Russia was neither observing the truce nor “even particularly trying to”, adding there had been no calm in front-line areas despite a lull in large-scale attacks.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of committing more than 1,000 ceasefire violations. It said Ukrainian forces attacked civilian targets in several Russian regions and carried out strikes against Russian military positions on the front line.

Russia’s military had “responded in kind” to the ceasefire violations, according to the Defence Ministry.

US-backed negotiations on ending the Russia-Ukraine war have made little headway and have been largely sidelined by the crisis in the Middle East amid the US-Israel war on Iran. Trump’s ceasefire announcement had raised some hope that US-led talks to end Russia’s invasion could be resumed.

On Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested for the first time that the Ukraine war may be “coming to an end” and expressed a willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow or a neutral country once an agreement to end the war is finalised. He also accused the “arrogant” West of risking a global conflict, warning that Russia’s “strategic forces” are combat-ready.

Russian institutions and officials accused of systemic deportation and indoctrination of children during the war on Ukraine.

The European Union and United Kingdom have imposed sanctions on Russian institutions and officials accused of systematically deporting and indoctrinating Ukrainian children.

The EU announced measures against 23 state institutions and people on Monday. The UK simultaneously unveiled a broader package targeting 85 people and entities, roughly a third of them linked to what was described as Russia’s campaign to forcibly deport and militarise Ukrainian children.

Russia has deported and forcibly transferred nearly 20,500 Ukrainian children since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, an EU statement noted. It branded the actions as grave breaches of international law.

The EU said its designations target institutions and individuals involved in programmes subjecting children to pro-Russian indoctrination, including patriotic events, ideological education and military-oriented activities.

The sanctions, which include asset freezes and travel bans, were approved by the EU’s 27 nations in coordination with Canada and the UK, which announced similar measures.

“Stealing children is not incidental. It is a deliberate Russian policy, a calculated attack on Ukraine’s future,” the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, told a news conference.

The UK sanctions announcement named the Centre for Military and Patriotic Training and Education of Youth, known as the warrior centre, a Russian state institution at which Ukrainian children are reportedly subjected to military training and pro-Kremlin ideology.

Also targeted was Yulia Sergeevna Velichko, the Moscow-installed minister for youth policy in the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic, for her role in implementing state-led initiatives.

UK Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Yvette Cooper said the UK would continue working alongside allies to support every effort to identify and trace children who had been taken.

Russia does not deny taking the children but has said it has done so for their protection, moving them away from front-line areas, and claims it is willing to return them when relatives come forward and can be verified.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2023 for the war crime of illegal deportation of children from Ukraine.

Responding to the announced sanctions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “These are the ones who ‘rewire’ the identity of Ukrainian children, help make them hate their homeland, and one day take up arms to fight against Ukraine.”

The UK’s broader sanctions package also took aim at Russian information warfare operations, with the remaining measures targeting individuals and entities linked to alleged Kremlin propaganda campaigns.

Among them were 49 people working for the Social Design Agency, a state-funded Russian organisation accused of running disinformation and interference operations, including attempts to establish pro-Russia organisations in Armenia and influence the outcome of upcoming elections.

Traditionally a strong Russian ally, the Caucasian country has recently been moving away from Moscow’s orbit.

Last week, the Armenian ambassador was summoned to protest what the Kremlin described as “terrorist threats against Russia” made by Zelenskyy in a speech delivered in Yerevan.

The continued clashes and drone strikes reported by Ukraine despite a United States brokered ceasefire reveal the deep structural difficulties facing diplomatic efforts to end the Russia Ukraine war. Although both Moscow and Kyiv formally agreed to a temporary ceasefire between May 9 and May 11, reports of ongoing battlefield engagements, drone operations, and civilian casualties demonstrate how fragile and limited such agreements have become in the context of prolonged modern warfare.

The ceasefire emerged as part of a broader diplomatic push led by United States President Donald Trump to reduce hostilities and create momentum toward wider peace negotiations. However, within days both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of violations, exposing the absence of trust, verification mechanisms, and shared strategic objectives between the two sides.

The developments illustrate a broader reality increasingly visible in contemporary conflicts. Ceasefires no longer necessarily represent steps toward peace. Instead, they often function as temporary tactical pauses within wars that continue politically, militarily, and psychologically even during formal periods of de escalation.

The Structural Fragility of Modern Ceasefires

The Ukraine conflict demonstrates why ceasefires in modern interstate wars are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Unlike traditional wars where front lines were relatively static and centralized military command structures exercised greater control, contemporary conflicts involve decentralized operations, drone warfare, rapid communication systems, and continuous battlefield surveillance.

In such environments, even limited military activity can quickly trigger accusations of violations and retaliation. The reported drone attacks, artillery clashes, and combat engagements along the front line reflect how difficult it is to fully halt military operations across an extensive and heavily militarized battlefield.

Furthermore, both Russia and Ukraine continue to pursue strategic objectives incompatible with lasting compromise. Russia seeks to consolidate territorial gains and maintain pressure on Ukrainian forces, while Ukraine aims to resist occupation and preserve sovereignty. Without broader political agreement regarding the war’s fundamental issues, temporary ceasefires remain highly vulnerable to collapse.

The result is a situation where ceasefires may reduce the intensity of conflict in some areas while violence continues in others, creating ambiguity regarding whether peace efforts are genuinely progressing.

Drone Warfare and the Transformation of the Battlefield

One of the most significant features of the current conflict is the central role of drones in sustaining military operations even during ceasefire periods. Ukraine’s military reported thousands of so called kamikaze drone deployments, while Russia simultaneously accused Ukraine of launching drone attacks into Russian territory.

Drone warfare fundamentally alters the nature of ceasefires because unmanned systems allow states to maintain pressure without large scale troop offensives. Drones can conduct reconnaissance, target infrastructure, disrupt logistics, and inflict psychological pressure while remaining below the threshold of full conventional escalation.

This creates a strategic grey zone where both sides can continue military activity while formally claiming commitment to ceasefire agreements. The low cost, flexibility, and deniability associated with drone operations make them especially attractive during periods of limited diplomatic engagement.

The widespread use of drones also reflects the broader transformation of modern warfare into a technologically driven conflict characterized by constant surveillance and persistent low intensity attacks. In this environment, the distinction between war and ceasefire becomes increasingly blurred.

The apparent breakdown of the ceasefire also highlights the growing limitations facing United States led diplomatic efforts. Although Washington remains deeply influential in shaping international negotiations surrounding the conflict, its ability to enforce compliance remains constrained.

Temporary ceasefires require more than political announcements. They depend on verification systems, mutual trust, enforcement mechanisms, and shared incentives for de escalation. None of these conditions currently exist at sufficient levels between Russia and Ukraine.

Moreover, both sides appear to view military pressure as essential to strengthening their negotiating positions. This creates a paradox where diplomacy and warfare occur simultaneously rather than sequentially. Ceasefires therefore become instruments for tactical adjustment rather than genuine pathways toward peace.

The involvement of the United States also introduces additional geopolitical dimensions. Russia continues to frame the conflict as part of a broader confrontation with Western influence, while Ukraine depends heavily on Western military and diplomatic support. These dynamics complicate efforts to establish neutral or mutually accepted mediation frameworks.

Humanitarian Consequences and Civilian Vulnerability

Despite diplomatic initiatives, civilians continue to bear the costs of ongoing violence. Reports of deaths and injuries across regions including Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Mykolaiv demonstrate how even limited ceasefire violations can produce severe humanitarian consequences.

Modern conflicts increasingly expose civilian populations to continuous insecurity because fighting extends beyond conventional front lines. Drone strikes, missile attacks, and artillery exchanges create environments where daily life remains unstable regardless of official diplomatic announcements.

This persistent insecurity also produces long term social and psychological effects. Populations living under repeated cycles of ceasefire and renewed violence may gradually lose confidence in diplomatic processes altogether. Such conditions weaken public trust in negotiations and reinforce perceptions that military outcomes remain more decisive than political agreements.

The humanitarian dimension therefore remains central to understanding the broader implications of the war. Beyond territorial disputes and geopolitical competition, the conflict continues to reshape civilian life, displacement patterns, and regional stability across Eastern Europe.

The Strategic Logic Behind Continued Fighting

The continuation of battlefield clashes despite the ceasefire reflects rational strategic calculations by both parties. Neither Russia nor Ukraine wishes to allow the other side opportunities to regroup, reinforce positions, or gain battlefield advantage during temporary pauses.

For Russia, maintaining pressure along advancing sectors preserves momentum and signals military resolve. For Ukraine, continued resistance demonstrates operational resilience and prevents normalization of Russian territorial control.

This strategic logic makes limited violations almost inevitable in prolonged wars where military outcomes remain uncertain. Ceasefires become fragile because both sides fear that restraint could weaken their broader position in future negotiations or battlefield developments.

The situation also reflects how wars of attrition generate incentives for constant pressure rather than stable pauses. Each side seeks to exhaust the opponent economically, militarily, and psychologically over time.

Analysis

The reported ceasefire violations in Ukraine demonstrate the growing difficulty of achieving meaningful de escalation in modern high intensity conflicts. Temporary agreements may reduce some forms of violence, but they rarely address the deeper strategic, political, and technological dynamics sustaining prolonged warfare.

The Ukraine conflict illustrates several important realities shaping contemporary international security. First, ceasefires without comprehensive political frameworks remain highly unstable. Second, drone warfare and decentralized military technologies blur the distinction between peace and conflict. Third, diplomatic efforts increasingly coexist with ongoing military operations rather than replacing them.

The events also reveal the limits of external mediation in wars where core strategic objectives remain fundamentally incompatible. As long as both Russia and Ukraine continue viewing military pressure as essential to their long term goals, ceasefires are likely to function more as tactical interruptions than genuine transitions toward peace.

Ultimately, the fragility of the current ceasefire reflects a broader transformation in warfare itself. Modern conflicts are no longer defined solely by formal declarations of war or peace, but by continuous cycles of negotiation, limited escalation, technological warfare, and strategic uncertainty.

With information from Reuters.

The annual ritual that is the Victory Day Parade in Moscow serves a dual purpose. It reminds Russia’s citizenry and the Kremlin’s audience across the former Soviet Union of the glorious past. The muscle flexing on May 9 each year benchmarks Russia’s geopolitical fortunes.

Last year on the 80th anniversary of the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany, Russian President Vladimir Putin was flanked by foreign dignitaries from far and wide: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority.

This year, the lineup was much less impressive. Leaders from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia and Uzbekistan attended – with Republika Srpska, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for some added flavour – but no heavy hitters like India or China.

The talk of Russia as a linchpin of a new multipolar world order rings a tad hollow today, not least because no heavy equipment was marched through during the parade out of fear of Ukrainian drone strikes. On top of it, United States President Donald Trump claimed credit for a three-day ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.

The relatively dull affair that was this year’s parade speaks volumes about Russia’s current state. On paper, everything is going just fine. Trump has not wholly abandoned the idea of a deal to freeze the war in Ukraine, even at the cost of major concessions by Kyiv. The current US National Security Strategy calls for “strategic stability” with Russia while blasting Europe’s “woke” policies.

The inconclusive war against Iran, meanwhile, has exposed the limits of US military might. Oil prices have jumped, filling Russia’s coffers and improving its fiscal balance. On top of it, Trump has removed sanctions on some Russian oil to increase the global supply. Meanwhile, the Europeans are signalling they want to talk to Moscow.

In reality, the mood is gloomy. The Russian war effort in Ukraine continues to be stalled no matter how much money, materiel and human lives the Kremlin throws into the meat grinder that is the so-called special military operation (SVO). Ukrainian drones have hit deep inside the Russian homeland with even Red Square apparently not being immune to aerial attack.

Trump has lost interest in wooing Putin. With Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gone, the European Union has consolidated ranks. In Russia itself, economic growth has plummeted from 4 percent in 2024 to a projection of just over 1 percent this year.

The prospects for long-term development, productivity growth and technological innovation are lacklustre. There are modest signs of discontent within the Russian elite. Even Putin’s sky-high popularity ratings are slightly down, according to pollsters.

The stifling of the mobile internet in Moscow and other big cities has been met with dismay. Russians could be excused for puzzling over how the SVO, sold as a glorious repeat of the 1941-1945 Great Patriotic War, has gone on longer than the latter with no end in sight. It is no wonder Putin felt compelled to say on Saturday that “the matter” is coming to an end.

While its resources are focused on Ukraine, Russia is on the back foot in what it still calls its “near abroad” too. The past week showed that Europe is gaining momentum there.

On Monday, Armenia hosted the annual summit of the European Political Community (EPC), where European leaders gathered. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in attendance too. Once Moscow’s loyal client and member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation and Eurasian Economic Union, Yerevan is now strengthening ties with the West.

Even if the EPC is dismissed as a pan-European talking shop – or maybe a transatlantic one, given that Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, came as well – observers cannot ignore the fact that it was followed by the first EU-Armenia summit.  The high-profile meeting signalled in no ambiguous terms that Yerevan sees its future in the EU. Strategically, it is looking at joining the trio of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

The EU is reciprocating: The summit discussed up to 2.5 billion euros ($2.95bn) in investment in Armenia; cooperation on energy, transport and digital infrastructure; and visa liberalisation.

In parallel, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are courting the Trump administration. The two countries have welcomed the US as a peacebroker as they move closer to normalising ties. In August at the White House, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a joint declaration pledging to seek peace.

In February, JD Vance became the first sitting US vice president to visit Yerevan and then hopped over to Baku. Armenians and Azeris are negotiating the opening of the Zangezur corridor running between Azerbaijan proper and its exclave Nakhchivan (from where the Aliyev family hails). The project has a name – Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.

In short, the US has scored a couple of points in Russia’s back yard with the help of Pashinyan and Aliyev. Moscow is watching from the sidelines as a former satellite drifts away from its embrace. And the EU but also Turkiye are to benefit because Armenia’s opening and interconnection with its neighbours favours their pro-integration agenda.

Of course, this does not mean that Armenia could simply jump ship from Russia to the West. Moscow retains stakes in the Armenian economy and, therefore, political leverage.

This will be put on display in the June general election, which will pit Pashinyan’s Civil Contract against the Armenia Alliance of former President Robert Kocharyan and Strong Armenia associated with the Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan. Both Kocharyan and Karapetyan have strong connections to Moscow.

Public opinion is in favour of diversifying relations but not a complete break-up. That is a pragmatic position shared by Pashinyan too despite his focus on deepening ties with the West.

Russia failed to – or was reluctant to – support Armenia against Azerbaijan and prevent the loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and Armenians are right to look for alliances elsewhere. But without a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and without full normalisation with Turkiye, one has to tread carefully and not burn bridges.

The Armenian leadership has to also factor in neighbouring Iran, with whom it enjoys positive ties. An escalation of the US-Israel war on Iran could threaten cross-border energy trade.

Putin would have loved to see Armenia and Azerbaijan attending Saturday’s parade. Ditto for Moldova, where pro-EU forces prevailed in the 2025 parliamentary elections. Or Georgia, which still has no diplomatic relations with Russia despite the rule of the authoritarian-minded Georgian Dream, a party viewed positively in the Kremlin.

The chances of those countries turning up next year are slim too. Even Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will probably not confirm until the last minute, as they have been doing for years.

These days, Russia’s near abroad is much more abroad than near.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

As Russia held its most scaled-back Victory Day parade in years with Vladimir Putin suggesting the war on Ukraine is ‘coming to an end’, Theresa Fallon argues Volodymyr Zelenskyy has played a bad hand of cards very well in order to gain momentum against Moscow.

May 8 (UPI) — Russia and Ukraine on Friday confirmed a three-day cease-fire and prisoner swap, which they said was agreed to after their leaders spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that the countries agreed to pause the conflict Saturday through Monday, and for both country to swap 1,000 prisoners each that have been captured during the four-year war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the agreement in a post on X, and said that he has instructed his team to “promptly prepare everything necessary for the exchange.”

Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov also confirmed the deal, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin found it acceptable and that Russia “welcomes” it, Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency reported.

The deal comes less than a day before Russia celebrates Victory Day, its annual commemoration of the allied powers victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

“This request was made directly by me, and I very much appreciate its agreement by President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymir Zelenskyy,” Trump said in the post, referring to calls he placed to both leaders and which they confirmed.

“Hopefully, [the cease-fire] is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, hard fought War,” Trump said. “Talks are continuing on ending this Major Conflict, the biggest since World War II, and we are getting closer and closer every day.”

The cease-fire in the biggest land war in Europe since World War II will include “a suspension of all kinetic activity,” as well as countries returning 1,000 prisoners each to one another.

Zelensky said there had been appeals and signals about a potential cease-fire to start on Saturday because of Victory Day, which motivated it to negotiate the pause and pursue the return of Ukrainians held during the war.

“An additional argument for Ukraine in determining our position has always been the resolution of one of the key humanitarian issues of this war — namely, the release of prisoners of war,” he said. “Red Square is less important to us than the lives of Ukrainian prisoners who can be brought home.”

Ushakov said that Trump, during the call with Putin, emphasized that Russia and the United States were allies during World War II, pointing to Victory Day as a potential date to start a cease-fire.

“An agreement on this matter was reached during our telephone contacts with the U.S. administration,” Ushakov said. “In turn, U.S. representatives were in contact with Kyiv.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that his country’s war on Ukraine may be “coming to an end” and expressed a willingness to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a third country if a peace deal is finalised.

Putin made the comments to reporters on Saturday, hours after promising victory in Ukraine at Russia’s most scaled-back Victory Day parade in years.

The remarks came as Russia and Ukraine began a three-day ceasefire and agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners, in developments that raised cautious hopes of renewed diplomatic progress.

At the parade, Putin praised Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, framing their mission as a “just cause” against “an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc”.

“Victory has always been and will be ours,” he added, as columns of troops lined up on Moscow’s Red Square.

Speaking to reporters afterwards, Putin blamed Western “globalist elites” for the war, saying they had promised NATO would not expand eastward after the 1989 fall of ‌the Berlin Wall, but then tried to draw Ukraine into the European Union’s orbit.

He then declared, “I think the matter is coming to an end.”

Russia’s annual Victory Day holiday marks the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II and honours the 27 million Soviet citizens who died in the conflict.

This year’s parade was more subdued than usual, with videos of military hardware shown on giant screens rather than tanks and missile systems rolling through Red Square.

For the first time, Saturday’s parade featured troops from North Korea, a tribute to Pyongyang that sent its soldiers to fight alongside Moscow’s forces to repel a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.

Russia had declared a unilateral ceasefire for the holiday on Friday and Saturday, while Zelenskyy announced a truce that was supposed to begin on May 6, but neither held, and the parties traded blame for the continuing attacks.

Fears for the festivities eased on Friday, when US President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had bowed to his request for a ceasefire running Saturday through Monday and an exchange of prisoners.

“This Ceasefire will include a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each Country,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social Post on Friday.

“Talks are continuing” on ending the war, Trump said, adding that “we are getting closer and closer every day”.

“Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War,” he said.

Zelenskyy followed up on Trump’s statement with a decree mockingly permitting Russia to hold its Victory Day celebrations, declaring Red Square temporarily off-limits for Ukrainian strikes.

The Kremlin shrugged off the comments as a “silly joke”.

Zelenskyy has previously proposed to meet with Putin to negotiate a peace deal, but has dismissed the Russian leader’s suggestion that he come to Moscow. On Saturday, Putin told reporters he could meet with Zelenskyy in another country, but only to endorse a comprehensive accord.

“A meeting in a third country is also possible, but only after a peace treaty aimed at a long-term historic perspective is finalised,” Putin said. “This should be a final deal, not the negotiations.”

Putin, who has governed Russia as president or prime minister since the last day of 1999, faces a ⁠wave of anxiety in Moscow about the war in Ukraine, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people, left swaths of Ukraine ⁠in ruins, and drained Russia’s $3 trillion economy.

Russian troops have been fighting in Ukraine for more than four years. That is longer than Soviet forces fought in World War II, known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War of 1941-45.

But Russian forces have so far been unable to take the whole of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Kyiv’s forces have been pushed back to a line of fortress cities. Russian advances have slowed this year, though Moscow controls just under one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.

European Council President Antonio Costa said last week that there was potential for talks between Europe and Russia on the continent’s future security architecture.

Asked on Saturday if he was willing to ‌engage in talks with the Europeans, Putin said the preferable figure for him was Germany’s former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder.

“For me personally, the former chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Mr Schroder, is preferable,” Putin said.

Russia held a scaled-back Victory Day parade on May 9 due to concerns over potential attacks from Ukraine. This parade, which celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany and honors the 27 million Soviet citizens who died, saw no military equipment displayed, unlike in previous years. Instead, images of advanced military weapons, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles and fighter jets, were shown on giant screens.

President Vladimir Putin attended the event, seated next to veterans, and gave a speech claiming that Russian soldiers are inspired by the past victories against aggressive forces, despite the support Ukraine receives from NATO. He declared his belief in eventual victory in the ongoing conflict, referred to by the Kremlin as a “special military operation. “

In the backdrop of the parade, U. S. President Donald Trump announced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, aiming to reduce hostilities. Both sides had earlier accused each other of violating ceasefires. Trump expressed a desire for a lengthy ceasefire, noting the severe loss of life since the conflict began, which he described as significant since World War Two. During this period, both Russia and Ukraine agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners.

Prior to the parade, Russia had warned of severe retaliation if Ukraine tried to disrupt the event, leading to heightened security in Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy humorously acknowledged the parade but stated that Ukrainian forces would not target Red Square.

The atmosphere in Moscow during the parade was marked by anxiety about the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has resulted in catastrophic loss of life, widespread destruction in Ukraine, and significant impacts on the Russian economy. Critics within Russia, including pro-war nationalists, expressed concerns about the government’s handling of the war and the possibility of economic collapse.

Reports also suggested increased security measures around Putin due to fears of a coup or assassination, although Kremlin officials dismissed these claims. Amidst the celebration, the shadow of the war loomed large, reflecting the deepening crisis within Russia as it struggles with the outcomes of its military actions in Ukraine.

With information from Reuters