Russia

Japan’s protest over Putin’s visit to the Kuril Islands is loud because its response is capped: Tokyo cannot meaningfully sanction the one Russian energy relationship — Sakhalin-2 LNG — it now depends on more than ever, after the Strait of Hormuz closure gutted its Gulf oil access and made that supply a load-bearing pillar of its energy security through at least December 2026.

On August 13th, Vladimir Putin toured a fish-processing plant on Iturup Island, the largest of the four southern Kuril Islands Japan calls its Northern Territories, with Sakhalin’s regional governor at his side. It was his first visit there in twenty-six years in power. He called the islands’ status “enshrined” as a permanent outcome of the Second World War and pointedly invoked the late Shinzo Abe, who spent years personally courting him toward a peace treaty that never materialised. Tokyo’s response was immediate: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called the visit “absolutely unacceptable,” and her Foreign Ministry says an “additional sanctions package” is under consideration. What went unmentioned is that this same government told Washington, in writing, ten months earlier that a full ban on Russian LNG would be “difficult.” That contradiction, not the visit itself, is the story.

The dispute is old: the Soviet Union seized the four islands in the war’s final days, and the missing peace treaty has been Tokyo and Moscow’s unfinished business for eighty years. What is new is the energy math surrounding it. Sakhalin-2, the LNG project sitting directly across the strait from where Putin stood, supplied Japan roughly 3.6–3.9 million tonnes last year — about 9% of its total LNG imports, and enough to make Japan the project’s largest single buyer. The US Treasury sanctions waiver permitting those imports, along with the Gazprombank clearing that finances them, was just extended to December 18th, 2026, pushed back from an original June deadline. Washington’s stated reason was blunt: global supply is “constrained amid the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

BEHIND THE VISIT

That closure is the piece most coverage of the Kuril visit leaves out. Since February 28th, when the US and Israel launched their air campaign against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut, with roughly 20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships stranded and Brent crude spiking to $126 a barrel at its peak. Around 90% of Japan’s crude oil and 11% of its LNG normally transit Hormuz. Tokyo has spent 2026 losing its largest energy artery to a war in the Gulf, which means Sakhalin-2 has quietly gone from “one Russian supplier among several” to one of the few pillars still standing under Japan’s winter power grid. Putin picked this year, not an arbitrary one, to make his sovereignty claim visible on the ground.

The waiver renewal is the tell. Washington and Tokyo did not merely tolerate the Sakhalin-2 exemption through the Ukraine-sanctions years — they actively rebuilt it in 2026, in the middle of the Hormuz crisis, explicitly carving out maritime transport, financial clearing, and joint-operations funding through the end of the year. Putin then chose that same window, with that same regional government’s leadership standing next to him, to plant a public flag on the neighbouring islands. He is not testing whether Japan objects. He knows it will. He is testing whether the general logic of sanctioning Russia survives contact with the specific, recently-renewed exemption that keeps Japanese lights on. Compare that to 2010, when Dmitry Medvedev made the first-ever Russian presidential visit to the same islands: Tokyo protested loudly, recalled its ambassador briefly, and moved on within weeks, because no comparable energy dependency was on the table at the time. The script is recognisable. The stakes underneath it are not.

Takaichi’s own words undercut her “absolutely unacceptable” framing before she said it. In October 2025, briefing President Trump on the LNG relationship, she told him directly that a total ban on Russian gas “would be difficult” — an unusually candid admission from a leader now weighing a fresh sanctions package over the same relationship’s home islands. A prime minister who has already told Washington, on the record, that cutting the energy tie is impractical cannot now credibly threaten it without the threat being understood, in Moscow as much as in Tokyo, as theatre. What remains available is a narrow band of symbolic measures — travel restrictions, asset freezes on individuals connected to the visit or the regional administration — that let Tokyo be seen to act without touching a single LNG cargo.

The standard objection is that Japan has options: JERA, its largest buyer, points to a 30–35 million tonne portfolio and spot-market access, and Tokyo Electric-linked utilities cite early-stage interest in the $44 billion Alaska LNG project as a long-term alternative. That is capability, not near-term relief. Japanese firms remain openly cautious about Alaska LNG’s cost and logistics, with no binding offtake timeline in sight, and the global spot market Japan would lean on is the same market already absorbing cargoes redirected from Hormuz-blocked routes — tighter, not looser, than in a normal year. Sanctioning the actual molecules, rather than a list of names, risks the electricity-price and blackout warnings Japanese officials themselves used to justify keeping the Sakhalin-2 waiver alive in the first place.

THE SCENARIOS

Base case (~55%): Japan announces a narrow, largely symbolic sanctions package — individual travel bans and targeted asset freezes tied to the Far East regional government — while explicitly leaving Sakhalin-2 supply and Gazprombank clearing untouched, repeating the 2010 script almost exactly. The December 18th waiver renewal proceeds quietly, folded into the broader Hormuz-driven energy calculus, and Moscow reads the episode as confirmation that its Pacific energy leverage over Japan is durable regardless of who occupies the Kremlin’s chair on any given August.

Downside case: domestic backlash — the same “hardened public sentiment” Takaichi herself warned the visit would produce — pushes her government into a genuine review of the Sakhalin-2 exemption as its December deadline approaches, right as Hormuz remains tight heading into winter and Asian spot LNG prices stay elevated from redirected Gulf cargoes. The result is Japan’s first real taste of sanctions-driven energy pain from the Ukraine-era regime, a burden that has so far landed almost entirely on European households rather than Japanese ones, arriving in the worst possible month of the heating season and forcing utilities into the kind of emergency rationing talk Tokyo has avoided since 2022.

Upside case: Tokyo treats the compounding shock — Hormuz plus the Kuril visit landing in the same year — as the forcing function it has lacked for three years, converting Minister Yoji Muto’s long-stated goal of “steadily reducing dependence” on Russian LNG into actual contracted volume rather than a talking point: accelerated Alaska LNG offtake commitments, expanded US Gulf Coast term deals, and a public timeline for winding down Sakhalin-2 purchases that uses the December waiver deadline as a hard exit ramp instead of an automatic renewal. Even here, the earliest realistic substitution volumes arrive on a multi-year timeline, not by next winter.

THE AFTERMATH

Putin’s flag on Iturup was never really a test of Japan’s territorial resolve — Tokyo’s position on the Northern Territories has not moved in eighty years and was never going to move now. It was a test of whether that resolve has any economic weight behind it at the one moment Japan’s alternatives are thinnest.

Watch for: what actually happens to the Sakhalin-2 waiver around December 18th, not the sanctions package announced this week. A quiet renewal, carved out exactly as before, will tell you Japan’s outrage and Japan’s energy security are now permanently on separate tracks — and that Moscow understands the gap between them better than Tokyo would like to admit.

Kyiv targets Baltic oil hub and warehouse near Moscow with drones, as regional alerts prompt security measures in Latvia and Finland.

Russia says its forces have struck a railway station at the Ukrainian Danube port of Izmail and two vessels near Mykolaiv, as Ukrainian drones hit targets inside Russia, including a Baltic oil export hub and a warehouse near Moscow.

The Russian Ministry of Defence said on Friday that the railway station in Izmail was being used to load, store, and transport military cargo and fuel for Ukraine’s armed forces, according to state news agency TASS.

The ministry added that Russian forces struck two tugboats off the coast of Mykolaiv that it claimed were escorting cargo vessels carrying weapons to Ukrainian ports.

The developments follow Russian attacks a day earlier that damaged port infrastructure and caused power cuts in Izmail, a vital export hub on the Danube River near the Romanian border.

Ukrainian drones target Ust-Luga and Tver

Meanwhile, Russian authorities said a Ukrainian drone attack triggered a fire at Ust-Luga, a major Baltic Sea oil export port in the Leningrad region.

Regional Governor Alexander Drozdenko said the fire had been brought under control and cleared with no casualties reported. He added that more than 50 drones had been shot down overnight in the region surrounding St Petersburg.

Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russian refineries, ports, and energy infrastructure to raise the economic cost of Moscow’s war effort. More than a dozen major Russian refineries have been hit, contributing to domestic fuel shortages.

Further south, the governor of Russia’s Tver region said drone debris damaged a warehouse wall belonging to online retailer Wildberries northwest of Moscow. No injuries were reported. Wildberries facilities have been hit more than 20 times over the past month.

Due to the drone activity, Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, Rosaviatsia, temporarily restricted flights at all Moscow-area airports to ensure flight safety, according to TASS.

The overnight drone activity also prompted defensive measures elsewhere in the Baltic region.

Latvia’s armed forces said fighter jets shot down a drone that entered its airspace. Meanwhile, Finland temporarily restricted maritime movement in parts of the Baltic Sea as a precaution against potential drone incidents.

Ukraine has reported an acute shortage of Patriot interceptors since the US went to war with Iran in February.

Russian forces have struck Ukraine’s Izmail port in southern Odesa, setting off a fire, authorities said, a day after Kyiv pounded Russia’s Novorossiysk port.

In a statement on the Telegram app early on Thursday, the Izmail Regional State Administration said Russian forces struck “port infrastructure”, causing damage and a fire.

It said emergency personnel were at the scene to extinguish it.

Izmail, close to the Romanian border, is home to Ukraine’s largest Danube port, handling grain and other commodities.

The attacks came as Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told CNN that the country needs 5 percent of the United States’s Patriot interceptor missiles to get through the winter and 10 percent to destroy all of Russia’s ballistic projectiles.

Russia has recently been firing barrages at the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, roughly once a week, killing civilians and damaging or destroying homes.

In one attack, Ukraine failed to intercept any of the 28 ballistic missiles launched at it.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine this year “had two and a half times less interceptors than we had in 2025”.

“Russia has two times more ballistic missiles per month than they had before,” he said. “This year, I’m asking American partners to sell me 5 percent of missiles [that] they have in their stocks.”

“If they sell us 5 percent, we will go through the winter and save people’s lives,” he added. “If they can sell us 10 percent, we will destroy all the Russians’ ballistic missiles. I have 1 percent.”

Ukraine has reported an acute shortage of Patriot interceptors since the US and Israel launched the war on Iran in February, diverting supplies of the advanced systems.

Ballistic missiles are much harder to intercept than cruise missiles or drones because they move faster and follow steep trajectories.

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s air force said it would stop publishing detailed figures on Russian ballistic missile strikes as Ukrainian forces struggle to intercept Russia’s heightened attacks.

The restrictions concern “the number of targets launched, shot down, suppressed or those that failed to reach their targets,” air force communications chief Yurii Ihnat said on Facebook. Real-time warnings would continue unchanged, he added, and the air force would keep providing generalised figures on Russian missile launches.

Last month, Russia fired more than 450 missiles at Ukraine, nearly 200 of them on ballistic trajectories.

Asked if the US had responded to his requests, Zelenskyy said he hopes that he gets the interceptors.

“From 1 percent to 5 percent, I have some months and millions [of] phone calls and anything else,” he said. “I do some things which I can’t even share. It doesn’t mean that it’s out of the law. But I can’t speak about it.”

If European states seize vessels with Russian cargo, Moscow will respond in kind ‘wherever necessary’, says Putin.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has threatened to seize European vessels if European states follow through on plans to seize more commercial ships with Russian cargo.

Putin delivered the warning on Wednesday while on board a Russian cruiser off the Pacific island of Sakhalin, where Russia’s navy was conducting a drill. He said Russia would be ready to carry out its own seizures “wherever we deem it necessary and appropriate,” according to Russia’s TASS news agency.

The statement comes after several European countries intercepted ships suspected of being part of Moscow’s so-called “shadow fleet”, carrying Russian oil in contravention of European sanctions.

New sanctions passed last month permit European Union members to sell the oil or any other cargo seized from the ships.

Putin appeared to reference the sanctions, saying some countries are trying to “restrict the movement of vessels belonging to our economic operators” and recently “came up with the idea of possibly seizing our ships and selling off property stolen from us”.

“If these plans are put into practice, we will have to respond in kind,” Putin said in comments carried by Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency, calling the moves “piracy and robbery”.

He said “relevant instructions” had already been delivered to Russia’s Ministry of Defence and Pacific Fleet, the naval fleet responsible for Russia’s maritime military interests in the Pacific.

NATO ‘making inroads in Asia Pacific’

Putin also accused the NATO military alliance of making inroads into the Asia Pacific region and heightening tension in the Arctic. “NATO is making inroads into the ‌region, new military-political blocs are being formed, and new weapons systems that pose a threat to Russia are ‌being deployed or are slated for deployment,” the Russian leader said.

Russia’s naval exercises in the West Pacific come a week before joint US-South Korean war games, designed to simulate a possible invasion from North Korea.

Tensions are high in the region amid accusations from Kyiv and Seoul that Pyongyang and Moscow are further intensifying their military cooperation.

On Tuesday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of using North Korean missiles in a deadly air raid across Ukraine. A day earlier, he had warned that Moscow was receiving more ballistic projectiles and troops from its ally Pyongyang, a development he said posed dangers not only for Ukraine but for countries in East Asia.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has already sent thousands of troops and plentiful supplies of weapons to support Putin’s four-year invasion.

Ukrainian president also says Russia will use its parliamentary election next month as a pretext to declare a new mobilisation.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Kyiv has handed the United States new proposals aimed at ending the four-and-a-half-year war with Russia.

The announcement on Tuesday came amid suggestions by both Ukraine and Russia that US negotiators would soon pay a visit to their two countries.

“We have conveyed our proposals to the American side,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address.

He said the US could help strengthen Ukraine’s defences, particularly its air defences, while increasing pressure on Moscow so that Russia prepares “for an end to the war rather than prolonging it”.

The Ukrainian leader offered no details on the proposals.

Talks to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022, have largely stalled since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran.

US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were last in Moscow in January and have not yet visited Kyiv.

Ukraine has repeatedly called for a ceasefire after years of fighting. Russia says it wants a settlement, but any solution must involve Ukraine fully ceding four regions Moscow claims as well as resolving the conflict’s “root causes”.

In his address, Zelenskyy also accused Russia of preparing to use its parliamentary elections next month as a pretext for another large-scale military mobilisation.

“They are preparing for mobilisation in the autumn, immediately after the imitation of parliamentary elections,” Zelenskyy said, as part of a plan to “create the appearance that ⁠Russians supposedly support the war”.

Following the “pseudo-election”, Russian President Vladimir Putin “plans an additional rapid mobilisation of several hundred thousand Russians by the end of the year, plus another ⁠similar number next year”, he added.

Officials in Moscow, however, have previously denied that another mobilisation is necessary.

Separately on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced that Russia has released former US Marine Robert Gilman after four years in detention.

Trump said Putin agreed to free the 32-year-old “on a humanitarian basis” and that Washington released no prisoners in return.

Gilman was expected to arrive at Andrews Air Force Base near Washington, DC, on Tuesday night.

The US had been pressing Moscow to release Gilman so he could receive medical treatment. US officials said he would be evaluated by doctors during the flight before being transferred to a rehabilitation centre in San Antonio, Texas.

Gilman was detained in Russia in January 2022 after an alleged altercation with a police officer and was later designated by Washington as wrongfully detained.

The pro-Kremlin nationalist party Rodina accused Yabloko of receiving undeclared campaign support, notably from Western sources – an allegation Yabloko denied.

Russia‘s Supreme Court has barred the only officially registered party opposing Moscow’s war in Ukraine from running in next month’s parliamentary elections.

The court upheld a suit on Monday brought by the small pro-Kremlin nationalist party Rodina to annul the registration of Yabloko, stripping voters of the chance to express their discontent with the four-and-a-half-year conflict at the ballot box.

Last month, the Central Election Commission had initially allowed Yabloko on the ballot along with 10 other parties.

“The claims seeking to annul the registration of the federal list of candidates for the State Duma of the ninth convocation, nominated by the Yabloko political party, were granted,” Judge Vyacheslav Kirillov said.

Rodina alleged that Yabloko had received undeclared campaign support, including from Western sources, among other accusations.

During a day-long hearing, Yabloko leader Nikolai Rybakov said there was no evidence to support the allegations and described the case as an unconstitutional attack on freedom of thought by political opponents seeking to clear the field of rivals.

About 100 supporters, mostly young people, gathered outside the courthouse as police stood by, chanting “Shame! Shame!” after the ruling was delivered. Some carried apples to display their affiliation with Yabloko, which means “apple” in Russian.

Addressing them after the hearing, Rybakov said the party would appeal the decision.

“We have a long way ahead, and we have a big and important task: to stop deaths and bring the peace back,” he said. “Everything we do should be dedicated to that.”

With most of President Vladimir Putin’s opponents jailed, exiled or dead, Yabloko is the only liberal party still operating in Russia.

The party has received the backing of several exiled opposition figures, including Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the late opposition leader Alexey Navalny. Both are listed as “extremists” in Russia.

A poll conducted earlier this year showed Yabloko at just three percent support – short of the five-percent threshold needed to enter Russia’s lower house.

With the Kremlin tightening its control over elections, Yabloko has failed to win seats in the State Duma since 2003.

Since then, every parliamentary vote has been won by the ruling United Russia party, which backs Putin.

Efforts to end the Ukraine war through diplomacy have so far failed, with Putin pushing hardline territorial demands to end the fighting and ruling out talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Independent polls show most Russians favour peace negotiations with Kyiv.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service says historically low rainfall has worsened the situation in several countries.

Western Europe has experienced its hottest June and July on record this summer, according to the European Union’s climate change monitor.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Monday that the region’s average temperature over the two-month period was 21.62 degrees Celsius (70.9 degrees Fahrenheit), 2.79C (5.01F) above average and higher than the previous record set in 2022.

This reflected “the exceptional persistence of heat” so far this summer, C3S said.

The climate change monitor also said levels of soil moisture were “significantly lower” than in July 2022 when the last severe drought gripped Western Europe.

“July 2026 was the third consecutive month of exceptional heat in Western Europe, bringing the combined temperature for June and July to a new record for the region,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

“Persistent high-pressure systems trapped heat over Western Europe. The extreme temperatures also amplified widespread drought. As soils dry out, they lose their ability to provide natural cooling, allowing heat to build more readily. This is a clear example of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes with heat and drought increasingly reinforcing one another.”

Several rivers experienced exceptionally low water levels, including the Seine, Rhine and Danube. The low flows affected water supplies and irrigation and led Hungary and Slovenia to operate their only nuclear power plants at reduced capacity.

France and Spain also registered record levels of drought, which fuelled devastating wildfires.

A megafire burned nearly 42,000 hectares (103,785 acres) and forced the evacuation of more than 220,000 people in southwestern France’s Gironde department in late July.

At the same time, Spain’s largest wildfire in recent history scorched almost 44,000 hectares (108,725 acres) in Avila province near Madrid.

The report also warned that large fires can send smoke high into the atmosphere, allowing it to travel thousands of kilometres and affect air quality in other countries.

The C3S also said the highest sea surface temperatures on record outside the polar regions were recorded in July. The average sea surface temperature was 20.96C (69.7F), slightly higher than the previous record of 20.89C (69.6F) in 2023.

The US Senate approved its strongest move against Russia under Trump, advancing sanctions that could impose tariffs on major buyers including India and China.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has claimed that Russia’s army suffered 42,800 casualties in July, which, if accurate, would be the highest rate of losses so far this year estimated by Kyiv.

At the same time, Russia has responded to its poor battlefield performance and domestic energy crises by doubling down on the two weapons Ukraine has not found an adequate defence to – glide bombs and ballistic missiles.

Russia unleashed 8,300 glide bombs in July, more than in any other month of the war, said Ukraine’s defence ministry.

Ukraine’s kill rate is rising to meet what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes will be a call-up of up to half a million Russian reservists in October.

Al Jazeera is unable to independently verify either side’s claims of casualties in the war, now raging on in its fifth year.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far refrained from using regular army conscripts and reservists in what he calls his Special Military Operation in Ukraine, fearing a political backlash. Should Ukraine force him to do so, it could mark a political inflexion point in Putin’s popularity at home.

As for Ukraine’s casualties, Zelenskyy recently told Fox News they amounted to 450,000, of whom 50,000 are fatalities.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has recently estimated that “the Russia-Ukraine casualty rate has likely risen to nearly 8:1 in the first half of 2026, up from between 2:1 and 3:1 for much of the war, in large part due to Ukraine’s use of drones”.

Drones were responsible for 30,272 of Russia’s casualties in July, said Zelenskyy.

Russia in retreat

Russia’s rising casualty rate is accompanied by a falling rate of performance on the battlefield.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank that assesses territorial control using geolocated open-source material, estimates that Russia occupied a total of 37.85sq km (15sq miles) of Ukraine in July, compared with 455,000sq km (176,000sq miles) in July of 2025.

That is demonstrative of Russia’s poor showing this year.

The ISW estimates that on balance, Russia has lost 183.5sq km (70sq miles) of Ukrainian territory this year, compared with the 2,198sq km (848sq miles) it seized during the first seven months of 2025.

Moscow has succeeded in infiltrating areas of Ukraine – a tactic of sending individual troops to pre-position themselves and await reinforcements, thus placing Ukrainian control of territory in dispute, if not firmly controlling it.

Russia infiltrated 121.6sq km (47sq miles) in July, according to the ISW, bringing total infiltrated territory for the year to 379.9sq km (147sq miles).

Many of these infiltrations have been reversed by the Ukrainian military, but they may yet prove effective in Kostiantynivka, the southernmost of Ukraine’s fortress cities, where Ukrainian defenders have recently expressed doubt about their ability to hold the city for more than a few more months.

Strike campaign renewed

Ukraine has also been holding its own in the air.

Zelenskyy declared a 40-day air strike campaign a success and renewed it on August 4.

The three-tiered campaign aimed to hit military production and oil refining inside Russia, energy and weapons flows in occupied territories close to the front line, and front-line positions.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said it had struck 14 refineries, dozens of oil depots and loading terminals, 14 aircraft and four airfields over 40 days.

Many of those strikes took place in the past week, when Ukraine set fire to a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, three refineries in the city of Ufa, 1,600km (994 miles) from Ukraine, the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl, the Engels 2 and Saratov airfields, and a factory in Izhevsk manufacturing Shahed drones.

Unlike the larger Shahed factory in Alabuga, which relies on Chinese parts, this one uses almost exclusively Russian parts, said military technology expert Serhii Beskrestnov.

Ukraine has destroyed about a third of Russia’s actual refining capacity, a recent Financial Times analysis of satellite photographs found.

Ukraine has been launching close to 10,000 long-range drones a month to achieve these results.

Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 6,225 Ukrainian drones flew towards Moscow in July, representing approximately two-thirds of all Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian soil.

When Ukraine launched its drone campaign at the end of 2023, its goal was to manufacture 11,000 long-range drones in all of 2024. It has since contracted agreements with nine allies to manufacture drones on their soil, sending 50 percent of production to Ukraine, and says 15 more agreements are pending.

The results of the 40-day campaign have been most dramatic in occupied Crimea, where Ukraine has struck 201 electricity substations.

“The Crimean Peninsula’s power grid faced an unprecedented load and operated in critical mode. Rolling blackouts occurred in all Crimean districts,” said the Kremlin’s ambassador-at-large, Rodion Miroshnik.

Things were not much better in the adjacent occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhia, where he said “large-scale power outages … were recorded throughout the week in all regions”.

Ukraine said it has also sunk or disabled 206 Russian tankers and ferries carting oil and war materiel to Crimea across the Black and Azov seas. The head of its unmanned systems forces said it had run out of targets.

The energy crisis has forced the Kremlin to spend billions of roubles subsidising the peninsula, including placing a 100 rouble ($1.20) price cap on petrol in the past week.

Meanwhile Ukrainian strikes have continued, levelling a 60,000-tonne petroleum products tank farm in Taman, on the Russian side of the Kerch Strait, used to supply Crimea, and causing a catastrophic fire on July 31. Ukraine followed up by striking aircraft hangars in Yevpatoria, a naval boat yard in Chornomorske and an artillery brigade’s supply base, all in Crimea.

Russia’s response

Russia’s glide bombs are inertial ordnance fitted with fins giving them extra range and accuracy, so they can be dropped at safe distances of 20 to 30km (12 to19 miles) from the front lines.

Some carry three tonnes of explosives. They fly too fast to be intercepted by drones and cannot be disoriented by scrambling.

As well as glide bombs, Russia also unleashed its greatest monthly tally of missiles against Ukrainian cities – 376 in July, compared with a previous record of 288 in March. Of these, 120 were ballistic, and their density has depleted Ukraine’s stock of Patriot interceptors – the only missile that has proven effective against them.

During the past week, Ukraine stopped only one out of 51 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

The Russian penetration rate translated directly into hits and civilian deaths – at least nine on August 1 and 17 on August 5 in Kyiv alone.

Russian production of Iskander-Ms is estimated at 70 a month, but North Korean ballistics may now be coming into play.

A missile fired at Radushne, Ukraine last month was of Korean manufacture, claimed Zelenskyy – only the second such missile to be used in the war.

Zelenskyy has pleaded for countries to send some of their stockpiles of an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 Patriot interceptors.

“The United States knows what we need. Europe knows what we need. Anti-ballistic missiles must protect people – not sit in stockpiles,” he said.

Ukraine’s vulnerability is clear from figures shared by its air force. It has intercepted 4,626 missiles of various types since the beginning of the war, but only 437 ballistic missiles.

Ukraine’s military intelligence says North Korea is preparing to deploy a missile unit to western Russia, which would mark another major expansion of military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang. The report comes as Kyiv warns its dwindling ballistic missile defenses are costing civilian lives.

Andrii Cherniak of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) told Reuters that the deployment will involve approximately 90 North Korean personnel stationed in Russia’s Voronezh region — which borders Ukraine — alongside the Russian military’s 112th Guards Missile Brigade. Ukrainian intelligence assesses the unit could ultimately field six launchers and as many as 120 KN-23 and KN-24 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), although the final composition is expected to be determined during senior-level talks next month.

The Ukrainian intelligence assessment has not been independently verified.

If confirmed, the deployment would represent a further deepening of North Korean support for Russia, after supplying Russia with ammunition, smaller numbers of ballistic missiles, and troops.

The Ukrainian Air Force today said Russia launched another major overnight strike combining drones with ballistic missiles. Preliminary figures showed Ukrainian air defenses shot down 98 of the 115 drones launched, but failed to intercept a single ballistic missile. As well as the inherent difficulty of intercepting these threats, this statistic also points to the exhaustion of its Patriot interceptor stockpiles.

The attack killed at least 17 people and injured dozens more after strikes hit multiple locations across Kyiv.

President Volodymyr Zelensky directly linked the casualties to continued shortages of advanced air-defense systems.

“Ballistic missile interceptors could have saved the lives of those killed today,” Zelensky wrote on social media. “It is very important that our partners understand that delays in supplying them, or an unwillingness to provide anti-ballistic systems, lead directly to such horrific casualties and destruction.”

Ukraine has spent months urging Western partners to provide additional Patriot batteries and interceptor missiles, which remain among the few systems capable of defeating ballistic missile threats such as Russia’s Iskander and North Korea’s KN-23 and KN-24. While Ukrainian forces routinely claim to intercept the majority of incoming drones and many cruise missiles, ballistic missiles continue to present one of the most difficult threats to defend against.

Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested Washington might grant Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot interceptors domestically before later appearing to back away from the proposal, saying the technology was “a hard thing to give away.”

According to Ukraine’s military administration, seven sites across Kyiv were struck during the latest attack, which began shortly after midnight. Zelensky said the primary targets included civilian industrial facilities, among them a brewing company and warehouses storing construction materials.

“Partners who are not yet ready to play a more active role in supplying interceptors can help by implementing new sanctions. A significant share of Russia’s ballistic missile production is still not under sanctions,” Zelensky wrote on X. “Even now. New steps are needed — from the G7, the European Union, and everyone who supports the protection of life. Thank you to those who are willing to help in this way.”

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said rescue operations continued throughout the day.

“There may still be people under the rubble,” he said.

Emergency crews rescued two survivors from a destroyed warehouse near the city center. Klitschko said 24 people were injured, including an ambulance driver, while four remained in critical condition. The strikes also ignited multiple fires at warehouses and industrial sites, while Ukrainian authorities reported an ammonia leak triggered by one of the impacts.

The latest attack coincides with what Ukrainian intelligence says was Russia’s first use of North Korean ballistic missiles since August 2025.

Cherniak told Reuters that Pyongyang recently delivered another batch of 40 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles to Russia, along with additional personnel. He said Russia ultimately expects to receive 120 North Korean ballistic missiles and six launchers.

According to Ukrainian authorities, one of the newly delivered North Korean missiles struck the central Ukrainian village of Radushne last week, flattening a residential home and killing at least five members of the same family.

In the strike on Radushne, for the first time in a while, the Russians used a North Korean missile, according to preliminary data. Of course, more examinations will follow, and everything will be verified, but as of now – it is a North Korean ballistic missile. The alliance… pic.twitter.com/UtTTNGwBUb

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 30, 2026

Clearly, any increase in Russia’s ballistic missile inventory poses a serious challenge for Ukraine’s already strained air defenses. The situation is likely to become more difficult heading into the coming winter, when Russia normally steps up its strikes against Ukraine’s electrical grid.

The KN-23, known in North Korea as the Hwasong-11A, is a traditional SRBM that can reach out to around 800 kilometers (497 miles) and has a 500-kilogram (1,102-pound) class unitary high-explosive warhead. It offers greater range than Russia’s 9M723 Iskander SRBM, which carries a similarly sized warhead but has a range of 500 kilometers (311 miles). This weapon has also been fired from adapted railcars, a concept you can read more about here.

As for the KN-24, or Hwasong-11B, this has a range of approximately 410 kilometers (255 miles), making it more of a battlefield support SRBM, but still sufficient for Russia to strike many targets within Ukraine. It is often considered a North Korean analog of the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).

However, the North Korean SRBMs are considered less accurate than their Russian-made counterparts and have been associated with strikes causing significant civilian casualties.

According to a report from Ukrainian state prosecutors, around half of the KN-23s that had been launched by Russia between late December 2023 and late February 2024 not only deviated from their trajectory but also exploded in midair.

An investigation by Conflict Armament Research (CAR) into the wreckage of a KN-23/KN-24 missile used by Russia in Ukraine found that the missile contained more than 290 foreign-made electronic components, with approximately 75 percent linked to U.S. companies, 16 percent to European firms, and the remainder to Asian manufacturers. This suggests that North Korea continues to obtain critical Western technology despite longstanding international sanctions and points to continued limitations in Pyongyang’s high-technology production capabilities.

🚨 🇺🇦🇷🇺🇰🇵 Analysis of the debris from one of the North Korean ballistic missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine found it was constructed with more than 290 non-domestic electronic components. Many of them were produced by US companies in the last 3 years.

This analysis was conducted… pic.twitter.com/YHwwAZG0Wo

— Colby Badhwar (@ColbyBadhwar) February 20, 2024

North Korea first began supplying KN-23 and KN-24 missiles to Russia in late 2023. Cherniak said Pyongyang delivered approximately 150 ballistic missiles between late 2023 and August 2025. Ukraine also says North Korea has supplied millions of much-needed artillery projectiles and deployed around 14,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk region under the countries’ 2024 mutual defense agreement.

Cherniak said roughly 9,500 North Korean troops remain in Kursk but are not currently engaged in combat operations against Ukraine. Zelensky said last month that Russia is seeking an additional 30,000 North Korean troops and is preparing facilities in the Voronezh region to receive them.

Overall, North Korean-supplied missiles make up only a very small fraction of the weapons used in Russian strikes on Ukraine, but there has long been concern about the direction the burgeoning military relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang could take. There have been particular concerns that Russian expertise in the development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons — as well as other weapons and technologies — could be provided to North Korea.

North Korea: Kim Jong-un shows unseen nuclear weapons to Russia’s defence minister

The reported new deployment comes as Russia appears to be increasing its reliance on ballistic missiles to exploit one of Ukraine’s most significant military vulnerabilities. With few signs that Russia has been able to further ramp up production of its own Iskander missiles, an increased supply of North Korean ballistic missiles would take advantage of a gap in Ukrainian air defenses and further threaten its cities, energy infrastructure, and other targets. The bigger concern is not simply another shipment of missiles, but the prospect of Russia tapping into an expanding North Korean production base financed by Moscow, allowing it to sustain high-volume ballistic missile attacks for far longer than it otherwise could.

Ukraine’s ability to defeat ballistic missiles of any origin has become increasingly constrained by the availability of interceptor missiles. Patriot remains the primary system capable of reliably engaging Iskander, KN-23, and KN-24 ballistic missiles, but the U.S.-made interceptors are expensive, produced in relatively modest numbers, and are also needed to meet U.S. and allied needs around the world. European-supplied SAMP/T batteries also provide a limited anti-ballistic capability, but have been provided in only limited numbers so far.

Global demand for Patriot interceptors has surged amid conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, straining U.S. and allied inventories and production capacity. Those constraints have become significant enough that Congress has questioned whether the Pentagon can sustain higher transfer rates to Ukraine even as Kyiv presses for more interceptors. Meanwhile, although the United States continues discussing licensed Patriot production with Ukraine, any domestic manufacturing effort would take many months—if not years—to produce missiles in meaningful numbers, leaving Kyiv dependent on allied deliveries for the foreseeable future.

Whether or not the reported North Korean missile unit deployment materializes, the operational trend is becoming increasingly clear. Russia is continuing to expand the scale and complexity of its long-range strike campaigns, pairing mass drone attacks with growing numbers of ballistic missiles specifically intended to exploit one of Ukraine’s most difficult defensive challenges. As Kyiv’s leadership continues to press for additional Patriot batteries and interceptor missiles, the consequences of those shortages are becoming increasingly evident with every large-scale strike.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

An airport employee spotted the drone carrying what authorities described as ‘an unknown explosive device’.

German authorities have launched an investigation after police removed the detonator from an explosive device attached to a drone found at Leipzig/Halle airport.

The airport’s north runway reopened on Wednesday after being closed for about two hours, while the south runway remained out of use due to scheduled maintenance.

Several flights, including a passenger aircraft, were diverted to other airports after a flying object was reported near the airport shortly before midnight. Police deployed an explosives-disposal robot to examine the object.

Authorities later said an airport employee discovered the drone near the runway carrying what they described as “an unknown explosive device”. Police examined it and removed its detonator, but did not provide further details about the nature of the device.

The probe is being led by prosecutors in the eastern state of Saxony who are responsible for politically motivated and “extremist” crimes, although authorities have not identified any suspects or attributed responsibility.

Meanwhile, an apparent second flying object collided with a freight aircraft after it aborted its landing because the runway was closed.

The aircraft diverted to Hannover airport, where officials found slight damage during an inspection. Authorities have not said whether the second object was connected to the drone found near the runway.

Authorities said there was no danger to travellers or airport employees, and flights were operating normally on Wednesday.

Photos from the scene showed police technicians working with an explosives-disposal robot near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft parked at the airport, although authorities have not indicated the aircraft was the intended target.

Russia launched another large-scale overnight missile and drone attack on the Kyiv region, killing at least 14 people, injuring dozens, and damaging warehouses and civilian infrastructure. The assault highlights Moscow’s continued focus on overwhelming Ukraine’s air defenses while intensifying pressure on the capital.

Heavy Strike Targets Kyiv Region

Emergency officials said Russian strikes killed 14 people and injured 27 across the Kyiv region, while authorities in the capital reported one death and 24 injuries. Warehouses, storage facilities, and industrial sites were among the locations hit, with rescue teams continuing to search through collapsed buildings for survivors.

The attack also triggered fires and an ammonia leak, adding to the challenges facing emergency responders.

Missile Barrage Tests Ukraine’s Air Defenses

According to Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia launched four Zircon hypersonic missiles, 24 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and 115 drones overnight.

While Ukrainian air defenses intercepted or suppressed 98 drones, officials said no missiles were successfully destroyed, underscoring the growing challenge posed by Russia’s expanding use of advanced ballistic weapons.

Patriot Missile Debate Gains Urgency

The latest assault comes as Kyiv continues urging Washington to provide additional PAC-3 Patriot interceptor missiles, one of the few systems capable of intercepting advanced ballistic missiles.

At the same time, discussions continue between the United States and Ukraine over potential domestic production of Patriot missiles, despite uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s long-term support for the initiative.

Escalation Continues on Both Sides

Russia said it targeted logistics hubs and supply facilities it claims support Ukraine’s military operations.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continued its campaign against Russian logistics infrastructure, reportedly striking another logistics hub linked to Russian retailer Wildberries, reflecting Kyiv’s broader effort to disrupt Russian supply chains far from the front lines.

Russia Is Increasing Pressure on Ukraine’s Air Defense Network

The latest strike suggests Russia is shifting toward saturation attacks that combine ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, and large drone swarms to exhaust Ukraine’s increasingly strained air defense systems. While drones can often be intercepted, advanced missiles such as the Iskander-M and Zircon remain significantly harder to stop, increasing pressure on Kyiv to secure additional Patriot interceptors. At the same time, Ukraine’s retaliatory strikes on Russian logistics networks indicate that both sides are increasingly targeting the infrastructure that sustains military operations rather than relying solely on battlefield gains. As missile stockpiles, interceptor availability, and industrial production become central to the conflict, the war is evolving into a contest of endurance in which logistics and defense manufacturing may prove as decisive as frontline combat.

With information from Reuters.

Ukraine has struck another warehouse belonging to Russian e-commerce giant Wildberries in a long-range drone attack. Kyiv says the company stores drone components used by Russia’s military.

At least three people are dead and more than 20 injured after a bomb exploded outside a restaurant in central Moscow. Russian authorities say a woman carrying an explosive device was stopped by a security guard before it exploded. It’s not clear who the target was.

Warsaw asserts missile recently made, illustrating Russia’s nightly barrage against Ukraine is draining arsenal.

Poland has summoned the Russian ambassador in protest over a missile incursion into one of its eastern regions.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Friday that the ambassador had been summoned after Warsaw confirmed that the projectile, which landed in the village of Tarnawa Kolonia in the Lublin region on Thursday, was a Russian Kh-101 missile. No casualties or injuries have been reported.

An investigation into the incident suggested that Russia’s weapon stockpiles may be running low as it continues to launch nightly barrages of drones and missiles at Ukraine while its more than four-year war drags on.

“The ambassador was informed of our unequivocal condemnation of hostile actions directed against the security of a sovereign state and its citizens,” Maciej Wewior, spokesman for Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told journalists.

“We emphasised that any escalation at the border of the European Union and the North Atlantic alliance [NATO] is unacceptable,” he added, underlining that the root of the incident was “the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation”.

The incident marked the latest in a series of incursions on NATO’s eastern flank. Drones and missiles intruding on the territory and airspace of Poland, Romania and the Baltic states have fuelled fears that the war in Ukraine may spill over the alliance’s borders.

NATO and European leaders have been swift to support Poland and condemn Russia for the missile.

Depleted stockpiles

Poland has identified the missile as part of an attack that killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine and injured more than 50.

Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz reported that Warsaw had established that the missile was produced near Moscow in the second quarter of this year.

“This means that Russia is using newly produced missiles to strike Ukraine,” he wrote on social media. “It confirms reports that Russian wartime stockpiles have been depleted.”

An expert from Ukraine who arrived at the scene “did not have the slightest doubt” about the origins or model of the missile, Marcin Kozak, spokesman for the prosecutor’s office in Lublin, said.

“I will point out that this type of missile is used exclusively by Russian strategic aviation,” Wewior noted.

Russia claimed this week to be advancing into Ukraine’s regions of Sumy, Kharkiv and Donetsk, as Ukraine installed new political leadership in its defence ministry and a new military leadership in its armed forces.

The changes followed the unprecedented firing of both defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov and commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii within a week.

Most concerning was the news from Ukrainian soldiers in the eastern region of Donetsk that Russia was “effectively cutting off” Kostiantynivka, the southernmost of four “fortress cities” Russia had pledged to overthrow in a bid to capture the remaining free territory of the region by the end of the year.

Kostiantynivka was “the key to liberating the entire territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic”, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently said.

“Things are very bad in Kostiantynivka. It’s not a question of whether we’ll lose [it] or not – we’ve effectively already lost it,” a soldier told the Ukrainian news outlet Hromadske. “If there’s a large number of Russians there, you can’t really say we’re holding it. They’re just pushing our guys into a corner.”

A local Ukrainian commander told Hromadske that Russians were moving into the villages of Molocharka and Izhevka north of the city, and his units could find themselves surrounded in “another month or two” unless reinforcements arrived or containment tactics changed.

Shortly before he was dismissed on July 21, Syrskii had painted a more optimistic picture, saying there were an estimated 145 Russian infiltrators in the city who were suffering “significant losses” of about 25 people a day, as Ukrainian drone units hunted them down in their urban shelters.

The commander of a group called Kurt and Company shared that more optimistic view with the news outlet Suspilne.

“Heavy fighting and gunfire are going on all over the city,” said the commander, identified by the call sign Kurt. “But we still control most of the city and the enemy is mainly on the flanks. They are trying to bypass us, cut us off, but we are holding our defence there. We are just constantly under attack from the KABs – they are just taking out positions with aerial bombs. This is the only thing that still gives the Russians success and this is a big problem for us.”

KABs are massive aerial ordnance with payloads of between 500kg and 3,000kg, which Russia has been dropping on Ukrainian positions at a rate of more than 200 and sometimes more than 300 a day. Ukraine has repeatedly placed aerial defence equipment at the top of its list of requirements from allies.

As recently as three weeks ago, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, estimated that Russian forces had a presence in just 37 percent of Kostiantynivka, mostly in the form of “infiltrations” rather than firm control. Its most recent assessment of Russian infiltration suggests that it has spread to most of the city, however.

Overall, Russian forces have been slowing down, though. The ISW estimated that they were capturing 16.6sq km a day in the first half of 2025, but just 1km a day in June this year. In July, the ISW has assessed that Russia has been losing territory at a rate of 1.6sq km a day.

Now, it appears that Russia has been mounting an effort to regain the offensive. The commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS), Robert Brovdi, said “the actual number of enemy personnel involved in offensive operations along the front line” during the month had increased by 12 percent compared with June and 18 percent compared with May, based on analysis from the SBS intelligence centre. Russian casualties increased by similar proportions, he said.

In the northern Kharkiv and Sumy regions, Russia claimed to have destroyed 10 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) control centres on July 27, killing 70 personnel.

Three days later, it said its troops had routed defenders in Nova Sich, Mogritsa and Malaya Slobodka in Sumy and Yurchenkovo in Kharkiv, by copying the Ukrainian tactic of using drones to disrupt ammunition deliveries.

“Russian servicemen found large amounts of abandoned weapons, ammunition and military equipment,” according to a Russian report.

A local Russian official claimed Moscow had captured 13 settlements in Kharkiv this month.

Al Jazeera could not independently verify the Russian claims, which have in the past been inflated or premature, and Ukraine denied Nova Sich had fallen.

An autumn offensive?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this week he had received intelligence that Russia was preparing an “expanded mobilisation” to counter losses of 225,000 this year, versus recruitment of 221,000 people. Six out of 10 casualties were fatalities, he said.

Zelenskyy told Sky News Putin aimed to raise 300,000 to 500,000 troops in early October, after Russian parliamentary elections had taken place in September. “He will not be able to quickly prepare these people. This, again, means that he will send poorly trained people to the battlefield, which will inevitably lead to heavy losses,” Zelenskyy said.

More worrying, perhaps, were the 30,000 North Korean troops Russia was preparing barracks for in Voronezh, in southwestern Russia, according to Zelenskyy. Russia received 3,000 North Korean soldiers in 2024, and used them to reclaim territory Ukraine had counterinvaded in Kursk.

Fedorov announced a plan in June to attract foreign fighters by raising the salary for a front-line soldier to $7,000 a month. “I believe that 50 percent of the front line or among the attack aircraft could be foreigners,” he told Ukrainska Pravda this week.

Russia estimates that Ukraine currently employs about 4,000 foreign troops. Ukraine’s armed forces are estimated at 900,000 people.

Long-range strikes

Ukraine struck blows in its economic war against Russia, hitting refineries and oil depots.

Those included confirmed hits against the Subkhankulovo oil tank farm in Bashkortostan, 1,350km from Ukraine, six refineries, an oil loading terminal at Rostov-on-Don, and fuel and lubricant depots at Ishki in occupied Crimea and Udmurtia.

Ukraine has recently struck targets as far afield as 2,500km, and Zelenskyy said it had now acquired range of at least 3,000km.

Ukraine claims to have disabled 42 percent of Russian refining capacity this year. A Financial Times investigation using satellite photographs confirmed that it had disabled 45 percent of nominal capacity and 30 percent of actual capacity, causing damage lasting weeks or months.

Russia, which has been experiencing a fuel crisis as a result, extended a fuel export ban from the end of August to the end of January.

Ukraine also struck military production targets, including the Avitek plant in Kirov city, producing components for aviation and missiles, and an S-400 radar. On July 27, it downed a Forpost-R heavy drone used to carry KABs – only the sixth such prize of the entire war.

Brovdi’s forces continued to starve Crimea of electricity and fuel, striking 37 electricity substations and four oil tankers during the week, bringing the total number of electricity infrastructure nodes struck in July to 164, and the total number of tankers hit in the Black and Azov seas to 205.

Brovdi’s forces focused much of their fire on the warehouses of the Wildberries online retailer, suspected by Ukraine of providing equipment to mobilising troops.

During the past week they have struck warehouses in Voronezh, Leningrad, Simferopol, Udmurtia and Penza, bringing the total number of warehouses set ablaze to 12 and the estimated damage to $2.2bn.

Russia also claims to have hit military targets in massive drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, but many of the hits were civilian.

One person died when a supermarket in Chernihiv, northern Ukraine, was struck on July 26, and the entire Voronov family was wiped out in Radushne in central Ukraine when their house was blown to smithereens on July 30. A record 56,000 people spent the night sheltering in the Kyiv Metro that night.

A sweeping package of new Russian sanctions has cleared its first hurdle in the United States Congress, and, if passed, could trigger huge tariffs for countries such as India and China which continue to buy oil from Moscow.

The bill, which was advanced in the US Senate this week, has been named for the late Lindsey Graham, whose funeral was attended by world leaders including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the week.

Here’s what we know:

What happened in the Senate?

The “Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026” was advanced overwhelmingly by the Senate this week in a vote of 86 to 12, meaning it can now proceed to the House of Representatives for further deliberation.

Named for the late Senator Graham, a staunch Ukraine supporter who died unexpectedly this month, the bill moved forward with the support of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was in Washington to attend Graham’s funeral and watched the proceedings from the gallery.

“It was an honour to be present as the votes were counted – 86 senators supported the bill,” he wrote on X afterwards. “This is the first step towards implementing Lindsey [Graham]’s plans, and certainly a step towards peace. It is important that this tool works.”

After clearing the Senate, there will be a delay before the bill can move forward to the House, which is now in summer recess.

On Wednesday this week, US President Donald Trump ordered lawmakers to amend the bill to include tariffs covering Iran as well. This will likely delay the bill further if it deters Democrats from supporting it, analysts said.

David Smith, an associate professor at the University of Sydney’s US Studies Centre, told Al Jazeera: “One of the things they’re worried about is how the tariff power in relation to Iran is going to be expanded. They’re going to be ok with tariff powers on Russia but they’re worried about tariff power on countries buying Iranian oil, which means China. I think there are going to be a lot of Democrats that are going to say these powers should be limited to sanctions and not tariffs.”

Without the Iran addition, he said he would have expected the bill to pass once the House resumes given strong Democratic support for Ukraine.

“Democrats have been genuinely worried about the Trump administration abandoning Ukraine. Something like this, which is ramping the pressure up on Russia so much, I just think there will be a large critical mass of Democrats who will vote for this,” he said.

What’s in the bill?

The bill makes use of sanctions and tariffs to target Russia and cut off the economic pipeline that has kept the Ukraine war going.

Major provisions include new sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as on more than 20 top officials and companies which work with the Russian defence industry. It also targets Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and the network it uses to evade international sanctions on its energy exports.

The bill gives the president authority to impose sanctions by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Under it, he would be able to apply tariffs of up to 100 percent on exports to the US from the top five purchasers of Russian energy, military equipment or countries facilitating Russian sanctions evasion.

Tariffs of up to 500 percent can also be applied to Russian imports directly into the US. The US imported $3.8bn in goods from Russia in 2025.

Which countries are likely to be targeted?

China, India and Türkiye are potential targets of the bill, as they are among the largest buyers of Russian energy, according to data compiled by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

China has historically responded to Trump’s tariffs with tariffs of its own on US exports. Even Pay, a director at the Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China, told Al Jazeera that the US may wait to impose tariffs as Trump is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year.

Trump would still welcome the option, she said, after the Supreme Court struck down many of his tariffs in February.

“If passed and signed into law [which is still a big if at this point], the legislation would give Trump something he’s wanted for a while, namely, the legislature’s permission to impose high tariffs on China, alongside the small handful of other countries that import Russian oil,” Pay told Al Jazeera.

India is in a tricky position as its attempts to diversify away from Russian energy were disrupted by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Maia Nikoladze, a deputy director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Due to the disruptions, it has also applied for and received US sanction waivers to continue buying Russian oil in the interim, Nikoladze wrote in a report this week, and it is expected to do the same in the future.

“India will face a trade-off between maintaining energy security and managing the risk of US tariffs, potentially prompting it to again seek waivers and exemptions,” Nikoladze said.

What do critics say about the bill?

Critics like Senator Maggie Hassan say the bill gives Trump too much power to impose tariffs while also potentially harming both the US taxpayer and allied countries.

Turkiye, for example, buys Russian energy but it is also a US ally and NATO member, while “major non-NATO ally” Brazil and “major security cooperation partner” Singapore both buy Russian oil products, according to CREA.

In a post on X, Hassan wrote that while she supports sanctioning Russia, she does “not think tariffs, which are paid for by American businesses and consumers, will help Ukraine win”.

The bill is also opposed by lobby groups such as the US Chamber of Commerce, which also says the true cost will be passed on to US businesses and consumers, as with past tariffs.

While many of Trump’s tariffs have already been struck down by the Supreme Court, the Russia tariffs could have more staying power because they would be imposed on a stronger legal basis, according to Smith.

That’s because it is new legislation which has been crafted using the powers of the IEEPA.

“Previously what Trump has done is to go back to old pieces of legislation and invoke from those his power to use tariffs in ways they haven’t been used before and in ways courts have subsequently found less lawful, whereas this looks like new legislation that is going to lawfully expand his tariff authority,” he told Al Jazeera.

Returning from the US, Zelenskyy says Ukrainians’ safety depends on allies’ willingness to provide anti-missile defences.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko says some non-residential sites in the city caught fire as Russia struck the Ukrainian capital with ballistic missiles.

Multiple explosions were heard in the city at 1:18am on Thursday (22:18 GMT Wednesday), according to Kyiv Independent reporters on the ground. Klitschko instructed people to seek shelter.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had warned on Wednesday that a massive Russian attack on Ukraine was likely and the safety of Ukrainians depended on the willingness of allies to provide anti-missile defences.

He was returning from the United States, where he said President Donald Trump had agreed to give Ukraine licences to make Patriot missiles.

Zelenskyy also repeated his request to Ukraine’s allies to supply Kyiv with the missiles its air defence system lacks in an X post.

In early July, Trump had expressed his intention to allow Ukraine to make the surface-to-air missiles at a time when Russia had stepped up its ballistic missile strikes.

Only US Patriot systems are capable of shooting down Russian missiles, but Ukraine is short of PAC-3 interceptor missiles.

This shortage has worsened since the war on Iran launched by the US and Israel in February.

In Washington, DC, Zelenskyy held what he called a “good meeting” with Trump, as he underscored Russian President Vladimir Putin’s loss of initiative on the war front due to heavy losses.

Zelenskyy spent just over an hour with Trump at the White House, in talks that came as Kyiv and Moscow intensified long-range strikes, as US-led diplomatic efforts to end the war stalled.

After the meeting, Trump posted photos to social media with a note that said: “Many things were discussed. The meeting went very well!”

Relations between Zelenskyy and Trump have warmed since the start of the US president’s second term, with Trump suggesting earlier this month that Ukrainian strikes inside Russia “could help” end the war.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect halted.
Tankers are now avoiding another critical waterway – Bab al-Mandeb – as Yemen’s Houthi forces threaten Saudi-linked vessels. Ukrainian strikes have hit Russian export infrastructure.
Three major routes are now disrupted at once: the Gulf, the Red Sea and the Black Sea.

Together, they threaten trade flows equivalent to nearly a quarter of global oil supplies just as reserves sit at multiyear lows.
Goldman Sachs says oil could rise above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz alone persist.
Economies worldwide are bracing for another energy shock.

An Indian student from Bihar says he has been charged over ‘Cockroach’ protests despite being in Russia for the last four months. Hundreds of students across India have faced arrest for participating in the youth-led demonstrations.

WASHINGTON — President Trump hosted the leaders of Ukraine and Israel — two nations at war — at the White House on Tuesday, as Washington’s role in both conflicts reaches a critical stage.

Trump’s meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came as the wars in Ukraine and Iran have recently expanded and overlapped in their footprint.

Over the weekend, Ukraine struck an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea, an attack condemned by Iranian leaders, who are dealing with their own uncertainty with a broadening war with the United States and Israel.

Both meetings took place in the Oval Office without the presence of reporters, and while few details were disclosed about the discussion, the White House described the sessions as “positive and productive.”

Yet there were signs of discord ahead of Netanyahu’s visit, his eighth during Trump’s second term and the first since the start of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran on Feb. 28.

In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday morning, Trump was asked about reports that Netanyahu planned to present him with intelligence about new activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected underground nuclear site in Iran.

“Well, I don’t need Bibi to tell me that. Bibi is telling me that because he wants me to stay involved,” Trump said, using Netanyahu’s nickname. “We know exactly what is going on.”

Trump seemed frustrated that Netanyahu was putting out that information ahead of the meeting, but added that the United States would “take out Pickaxe if we don’t make a deal.” Netanyahu also came into the meeting with Trump as he pursues campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, all with the backdrop of intensifying unrest across the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Following the meeting, however, Netanyahu issued a video statement insisting the two had an “excellent” session.

“It was one of the best conversations I’ve had with our friend, U.S. President Trump,” Netanyahu said, adding that Israel and the U.S. were meeting “with full cooperation, with mutual support, with understanding on the joint goal that Iran won’t have nuclear weapons, and also other goals.”

With Zelensky, there were fewer signs of strain, showing improved relations between the two leaders, at least compared with their first meeting last year, which devolved into a shouting match in the Oval Office in front of television cameras.

In a social media post, Zelensky described his meeting with Trump as “good,” and thanked him for working with him to “protect the lives of Ukrainians and advance peace.”

Zelensky said the two leaders discussed Trump’s pledge to allow Kyiv to produce U.S. Patriot air defense missiles, which are vital in its military efforts against Russia.

“We also spoke about diplomacy,” Zelensky said in an apparent reference to Trump’s interest in helping Ukraine and Russia reach a peace deal.

Trump’s relationship with Zelensky has shown signs of improvement since the start of the Iran war, as Ukraine has helped Americans with drone technology to use in the Middle East conflict.

Following the meetings, all three men attended the funeral of Sen. Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican who up until his death on July 11 was a staunch supporter of both Ukraine and Israel.

Zelensky was also scheduled to meet with a group of senators at the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday evening to talk about legislation that would impose harsher sanctions on Russia and its trading partners. Graham was an author of the proposed measure.

In recent days, Israeli settlers have ramped up attacks on Palestinian towns and villages, vandalizing properties, commandeering homes and fields, and establishing settlements that are illegal under international law.

At the same time, Israeli soldiers have intensified their incursions across the West Bank, arresting more than 100 Palestinians and demolishing homes.

The escalation followed a clash between settlers and Palestinian residents Friday that turned lethal, killing four Palestinians and two Israelis in what was considered the deadliest single attack in the West Bank this year.

Israeli attacks have also persisted in Gaza despite a ceasefire signed nine months ago. On Tuesday, health authorities in the enclave said 22 Palestinians were injured in Israeli strikes.

The rise in hostilities comes as Israel continues to push the United States to press on with a conflict that experts say carried political risks for the Trump administration with its supporters at home and international allies.

Last week, the U.S. war escalated again as Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing global oil prices to surge. The development prompted fears of yet another vital energy corridor being choked off by the Iran war.

As the November elections approach, Trump has downplayed the economic toll the war has taken on his supporters. On Monday, he told a crowd in Michigan that if they ever question why the United States is at war, it’s because “we’re not going to let lunatics have a nuclear weapon.”

Meanwhile, the cycle of claims and counterclaims by the U.S. and Iran has continued.

On Tuesday, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, a spokesperson for the unified command of Iran’s armed forces, warned any country or company accepting frozen Iranian funds as compensation for damaged vessels — as per Trump’s proposal over the weekend — would be struck.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei also contradicted Trump’s assertions of ongoing discussions between Iran and the U.S. and that Tehran was asking for a meeting.

Negotiations with the U.S. are “not in our DNA,” Baghaei said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s strike on an Iranian ship has raised the possibility of a growing footprint in that war. Ukraine said the ship was carrying military equipment between Iran and Russia.

Iran condemned the attack, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi slamming it as a “violation done at Israel’s behest” and the ministry spokesman comparing Zelensky to pre-World War I “anarchists” whose “theatrical yet highly dangerous acts” ignited a Europe-wide conflict.

“There is no guarantee that a dramatic gesture intended to attract attention and assert one’s position in the international arena, where that position is not particularly strong, will remain limited in scope,” Baghaei said during a news conference in Tehran on Monday.

He added: “The consequences, both for Ukraine and for the entire region drawn into this conflict, could be unpredictable.”

Ceballos reported from Washington and Bulos from Beirut.