oil

Oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz have quietly increased in recent weeks, but traders say the movement reflects a fragmented and opaque energy market rather than a full recovery in global supply flows.

More than four months into the ongoing conflict involving Iran, tanker traffic remains heavily disrupted, with shipping patterns increasingly shaped by risk, secrecy and shifting political arrangements.

Tanker Traffic Shows Limited but Rising Movement

Shipping data suggests that only a small number of tankers are currently crossing the Strait of Hormuz compared with pre conflict levels.

Monitoring firms including LSEG and Kpler estimate that an average of just a few vessels per day are now passing through the strait, far below normal volumes.

Despite this, analysis of oil stored on tankers in the Gulf indicates that outflows have gradually increased, suggesting more crude is leaving the region than official shipping visibility shows.

Hidden Shipping Patterns and “Dark” Tankers

A growing share of tankers are reportedly turning off tracking systems during transit through the strait, a practice known as going dark.

This involves disabling Automatic Identification System signals, making it harder to track vessel movements in real time.

According to shipping analytics firms such as Vortexa, a large majority of outbound tankers recently used this method, reflecting rising caution among operators.

This has made it significantly harder for markets to accurately assess global supply flows and has increased uncertainty in oil pricing.

Oil Stored on Tankers Shows Gradual Decline

One key indicator of market movement is the volume of oil stored on ships inside the Gulf, often referred to as oil on water.

Estimates from Kpler suggest that volumes have fallen from a peak of around 184 million barrels in March to roughly 148 million barrels more recently.

This decline indicates that more oil is gradually leaving the region, even if it is not fully visible through standard tracking systems.

Analysts estimate that outflows have increased over recent weeks, suggesting a slow and uneven recovery in shipping activity.

Security Risks Continue to Disrupt Shipping

The ongoing conflict involving Iran has significantly disrupted maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.

Limited access to the strait has forced producers to reduce output in some cases, while storage constraints have added pressure to supply chains across the Gulf.

Some shipping routes are reportedly being managed through informal arrangements or alternative corridors, while others rely on higher risk transit strategies to avoid detection or confrontation.

Recovery Remains Uncertain

Despite signs of increased movement, analysts warn that the situation is far from a return to normal.

A sustained recovery in oil flows would require consistent shipping access, stable security conditions and sufficient tanker availability to support exports.

Many shipowners remain reluctant to operate in the region due to elevated insurance costs and the risk of vessels being stranded or targeted.

Long Term Structural Change Possible

Industry observers warn that even if diplomatic progress leads to a formal reopening of the strait, the global oil market may not return to previous conditions.

There is growing discussion that Iran could attempt to impose tolls or control systems on shipping through the waterway, which would fundamentally alter global energy logistics.

Such a scenario could force Gulf producers to seek alternative export routes or invest in new infrastructure to reduce dependence on the strait.

Analysis: Market Stability Replaced by Managed Uncertainty

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz highlights a shift from predictable global energy flows to a more fragmented and opaque system.

While oil continues to move out of the Gulf, the lack of transparency in shipping routes is creating uncertainty for traders and pricing benchmarks.

The increased use of stealth navigation and alternative transit arrangements reflects a market adapting to geopolitical risk rather than resolving it.

As long as tensions persist, energy markets are likely to remain volatile, with supply visibility as important as supply itself in determining global prices.

Conclusion

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are slowly increasing, but hidden tanker movements and ongoing conflict mean the global energy market remains deeply uncertain. Without stable political conditions and transparent shipping routes, a full recovery in oil flows is unlikely in the near term, keeping traders cautious and markets volatile.

With information from Reuters.

Global markets are navigating two powerful and competing forces: escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence-related stocks. While concerns over renewed conflict between the United States and Iran have boosted oil prices and supported demand for safe-haven assets, the AI-driven technology rally has continued to push stock markets higher, particularly in Asia.

What Happened

Oil prices rose for a third consecutive session on Wednesday after fresh hostilities emerged in the Gulf region. Brent crude climbed 1% to $94.74 per barrel as hopes for a quick resolution to tensions between Washington and Tehran faded.

The U.S. military reported that Iranian missile attacks targeting Bahrain, Kuwait and other regional locations were either intercepted or failed. The developments came after negotiations aimed at ending the conflict between the United States and Iran stalled despite both sides announcing a tentative agreement last week.

Meanwhile, financial markets showed mixed reactions. U.S. stock futures were largely unchanged, while European futures edged lower. In Asia, however, technology shares continued their strong advance, helping stock indexes in Japan and Taiwan reach record highs.

Why Markets Are Reacting to Middle East Risks

Investors had previously expected the United States and Iran to formalize an agreement that would reduce regional tensions and ease concerns about energy supplies. The lack of progress in negotiations has instead revived fears of a prolonged conflict that could disrupt oil shipments from the Gulf, a critical region for global energy markets.

Higher oil prices typically reflect concerns about potential supply disruptions. The latest military developments prompted traders to unwind some of their earlier bets on a diplomatic breakthrough, contributing to the rise in crude prices.

Currency markets also reflected growing caution. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, briefly touching the closely watched 160 level before retreating amid concerns that Japanese authorities could intervene to support their currency.

AI Stocks Continue to Defy Market Uncertainty

Despite geopolitical concerns, enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence remained a major driver of equity markets. Wall Street indexes posted modest gains on Tuesday, supported by technology shares.

Chipmaker Marvell Technology surged more than 32% after Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang described the company as a potential trillion-dollar business. Investor optimism surrounding AI also helped propel SoftBank Group above Toyota Motor Corporation as Japan’s most valuable listed company.

The AI boom has continued to attract investment even as broader markets grapple with geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about interest rates.

What Comes Next

Investors are now closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data, including services sector activity, private payroll figures and Friday’s employment report. Strong labor market data could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer or even consider further increases.

Bond markets remained relatively stable, while traders adjusted expectations from potential rate cuts earlier in the year to the possibility of additional rate hikes. Markets have also priced in the likelihood of monetary tightening in Europe and Japan.

At the same time, developments in the Middle East remain a key risk factor. Any further escalation between the United States and Iran could push oil prices higher and increase volatility across global financial markets, while continued strength in AI-related stocks may help support broader equity markets despite geopolitical headwinds.

With information from Reuters.

June 2 (Asia Today) — South Korea’s consumer price growth topped 3% in May for the first time in 26 months as a prolonged Middle East war drove up global oil prices, raising concerns that high inflation could continue through the second half of the year.

The consumer price index stood at 119.92 in May, with 2020 set as the base year of 100, up 3.1% from a year earlier, according to consumer price data released Tuesday by the National Data Agency. It was the first increase of 3% or more since March 2024.

Industrial products rose 4.2% from a year earlier, while service prices increased 2.8%. Petroleum prices showed the sharpest increase, jumping 24.2%, the largest gain in three years and 10 months since July 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war was at its height.

Gasoline prices rose 23.1%, diesel prices climbed 33.3% and kerosene prices increased 21.7%.

Among services, international airfares, which are directly affected by fuel costs, rose 33.5%, while overseas group tour fees increased 26.3%.

The living price index, which tracks frequently purchased items with a high share of household spending, rose 3.3% from a year earlier, showing a worsening burden felt by consumers.

Lee Doo-won, an official in charge of economic trend statistics at the data agency, said petroleum prices rose more sharply because of higher international oil prices caused by the Middle East war.

“International airfares and prices for travel and lodging-related items rose sharply as fuel surcharges linked to global oil prices increased and the number of peak-season days, including holidays, grew,” Lee said.

The government said it will work to reduce price uncertainty by stabilizing petroleum prices.

A Finance Ministry official said the government’s petroleum price cap and fuel tax cut reduced the May consumer price increase by 0.6 percentage point.

“We will make every effort to stabilize prices felt by households through petroleum price stabilization measures and a task force on livelihood prices,” the official said.

Experts said inflation led by higher global oil prices is likely to continue in the second half.

“Although the United States and Iran have announced plans to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the high oil price trend is likely to continue in the second half even if the war ends, given the destruction of local oil facilities,” said Jeong Se-eun, an economics professor at Chungnam National University.

“For South Korea, which imports all of its oil, oil prices affect overall inflation. There is also concern that abnormal weather forecast for this summer could raise agricultural prices,” Jeong said.

“With no notable downward factor in the second half, inflation is expected to stay around 3%,” she added.

Park Jin, a professor at the Korea Development Institute School of Public Policy and Management, said prices are determined by market supply and demand.

“On the supply side, there are inflation concerns caused by unstable oil prices. On the demand side, there are price-increase factors such as a strong domestic stock market,” Park said. “Preemptive steps, including consideration of an interest rate hike, are needed.”

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260602010000704

Published on 01/06/2026 – 7:06 GMT+2•Updated
7:10

Crude prices climbed in early Asian trading on Monday after Israeli troops pushed further into Lebanon over the weekend, fuelling investor fears that the broader Middle East conflict could escalate rather than move towards a peace deal.

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At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 2.88% at $89.88 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 2.43% to $93.33 per barrel.

The Israeli advance has taken place despite a nominal ceasefire in place since 17 April and just days before the next round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, scheduled at the State Department on 2 and 3 June.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed

In other early trade dealings on Monday morning, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed with South Korea’s Kospi climbing 1.31%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.17%. The broader Topix index, however, slipped 0.3%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.21%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.73%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.32%.

Tokyo-listed shares in SoftBank Group, meanwhile, surged 5% after the Japanese conglomerate unveiled plans to invest €45 billion over the next five years to develop artificial intelligence infrastructure in France.

Wall Street pushes into record books

In the US, stock futures were flat after Wall Street pushed further into the record books on Friday. The major indexes extended the market’s recent winning streak and closed out a solid month of gains.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, notching its seventh consecutive gain and ninth straight winning week — the longest such streak since 2023. The benchmark index set an all-time high for the fourth day in a row.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq composite added 0.2%. The Dow and Nasdaq also reached new heights after posting record highs earlier last week.

Big technology stocks have been behind much of the market’s record-breaking streak. Their pricey stock values give them more influence in directing the market higher or lower. In May alone, technology stocks within the S&P 500 rose more than 15%, while most of the sectors in the benchmark index actually lost ground.

“The rally has been largely tech-led and supported by resilient earnings, but the key question is whether it can be sustained,” wrote Angelo Kourkafas, senior global strategist at Edward Jones, in a research note.

Tech stocks also powered the market higher Friday. Microsoft rose 5.4% and Broadcom gained 4.7%.

Additional sources • AP

The Middle East has been a difficult region to deal with in oil markets. When it comes to energy geographies, the region has proven to be a disproportionately significant part of the world’s energy resources, with export facilities traversing a handful of maritime routes and political situations that have been tense, if not outright volatile, at times. The change in 2025 and into 2026 isn’t the nature of the forces but rather the confluence of overlapping pressures: ongoing sanctions enforcement, multiple theaters of conflict, OPEC+ tensions that are more public than ever in previous years, and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, which now seem to have become a semi-permanent part of the shipping route landscape.

There is no background information for commodity traders, market analysts, and energy investors. It’s a real-time, constantly evolving dynamic that can make all the difference in the day-to-day performance of prices, and it’s particularly important when prices are sliding around rapidly, and the stories behind them are changing just as fast.

The Behavior of Prices and the Risk of Middle East Supplies

Traders who follow crude oil price live data are the first ones to witness this. Real-time feeds are a reflection of more than just the fundamental supply-demand elements, but the market’s real-time assessment of the value of geopolitical risk and how much it “should” be worth at any given moment. A news event, which is a minor detail in a more stable environment, can cause future prices to move $5 or more in less than an hour. The consistent and tough question – and it is a tough one – is, which events actually have physical supply implications and which ones are sentiment-driven moves that die in a session or two?

The Strait of Hormuz

About 20-21 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products go through the Strait of Hormuz, which is about 20% of the world’s oil consumption. No readily available bypasses can be found that can absorb that flow at a similar cost. There are partial alternatives, including the IPSA pipeline and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, but they would not even come close to filling the deficit should the Hormuz be closed en masse.

Source

It is a strait between Oman and Iran. Geography makes it so that any serious disruption in U.S.-Iran relations or of security conditions in the Gulf in general puts Hormuz back on the market’s agenda. Traders are all familiar with this: when there is a lot of Iranian tension, the futures positioning will always reflect the chokepoint risk, even if there is no incident per se.

Production Outages That Don’t Make the Front Page

Key Risk Factors Shaping Market Sentiment in 2026

Active Conflict Zones and Exposure to Infrastructure

The Persistent Iranian Supply Question

Infrastructure Concentration Risk

OPEC+ Internal Dynamics

Non-State Actor Activity and Shipping Friction

How the Market Prices Geopolitical Risk

Risk Premium in Practice

Geopolitical risk premiums in times of heightened Middle East tension have varied from around $4 to $10 per barrel, depending on the market participants’ views on the probability of actual physical supply disruptions in the case of Brent crude, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. That’s a fairly broad window for economic trading, and it has a tendency to close up very fast when the tension subsides and without a supply event, which is the more common scenario.

The geopolitical risk premium factors analysts may consider are:

• The nearness to active conflict, producing fields, or the working export terminals.
• Production capacity that would be available to make up for the loss of production elsewhere.
• The availability and magnitude of the IEA’s strategic stockpiles to be tapped.
• Current tanker market conditions and the viability of an alternative route.
• Diplomatic messages sent by governments in the area, including the United States and other great powers
• Past examples of similar events, which have had identifiable supply impacts.

It is not easy to give exact weights to these inputs. Part of the reason for the price action to seemingly be different with comparable geopolitical events can be due to different analysts forming different conclusions from the same events.

Historical Supply Disruptions and Price Responses

The 2025-2026 entry is a more diffuse form of market pressure than those acute events listed above. It is not one particular incident, but rather sanctions enforcement and Iranian volumes kept low and shipping activity in the Red Sea continuing to cause friction in the transport system, which has kept transport costs elevated. The World Economic Outlook from the IMF pointed out that this type of persistent supply constraint is likely to have a longer-lasting impact on medium-term price expectations than acute supply shocks, which markets have historically been able to absorb and turn around in relatively short periods of time. Thus, a slow-burning risk premium can be more ‘sticky’ than a dramatic risk premium.

Broader Market Implications

Strategic Reserve Releases (SRRs) as a Counterweight

Geopolitical Risk Analysis: What It Does and Doesn’t Accomplish

Conclusion

Disclaimer

European shares edged lower on Tuesday as hopes for an imminent de-escalation in the Middle East conflict faded following fresh U.S. strikes on Iran, triggering renewed geopolitical uncertainty across global financial markets.

The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index slipped 0.2% to 630.33 points by 0833 GMT, retreating from gains that had recently pushed it close to record levels.

On Monday, the index had closed at its highest level since late February, briefly coming within 1% of an all-time high on optimism that diplomatic progress could soon ease tensions in the region.

That momentum quickly reversed after renewed military action and comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said negotiations with Iran could take “a few days,” tempering expectations of a near-term resolution.

Oil Prices Jump as Hormuz Risks Return to Focus

Global energy markets reacted sharply to the escalation, with Brent crude rising more than 3%, reigniting inflation concerns across energy-importing economies, particularly in the euro zone.

The market remains highly sensitive to risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route through which a significant share of the world’s oil flows.

Analysts warned that any sustained disruption in the region could deepen inflationary pressures just as central banks weigh their next policy moves.

Airlines and Autos Under Pressure

Travel and transport-related stocks were among the biggest losers in Tuesday’s session.

Airlines including Lufthansa and Ryanair fell 1.4% and 0.7% respectively, reflecting investor concerns that higher fuel costs could squeeze margins.

Luxury and automotive stocks also came under pressure after Ferrari dropped sharply following the unveiling of its first fully electric vehicle.

The decline was compounded by a broader sell-off in the European autos sector, which fell 1.6% as investors reassessed competition risks from Chinese EV manufacturers and weakening global demand trends.

Market Sentiment Balances War Risk and Policy Signals

Despite renewed volatility, some investors noted that markets remain partially supported by expectations that diplomacy could still stabilize the situation.

One portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton said markets were reacting cautiously because investors believe a potential agreement could still restore stability in the Strait of Hormuz and normalize energy flows.

However, uncertainty around timing and scope continues to limit upside momentum in equities.

Inflation and Central Bank Policy Back in Focus

Attention is now shifting toward upcoming inflation data across major euro zone economies and the United States, which will help shape expectations for future monetary policy.

European Central Bank policymaker Yiannis Stournaras signaled that any persistent inflation overshoot would require a cautious shift toward tighter policy.

Market pricing currently suggests at least two further 25-basis-point interest rate moves before year-end, according to LSEG data.

Corporate Movers: Winners and Losers

While broader markets weakened, some stocks moved against the trend.

Kingfisher rose 2% after maintaining its full-year profit guidance, easing concerns about demand softness in the home improvement sector.

However, the overall tone remained risk-off as investors continued to weigh geopolitical escalation against macroeconomic uncertainty.

Analysis

The latest pullback in European equities reflects a familiar pattern: markets oscillating between hopes of geopolitical de-escalation and fears of renewed conflict risk in the Middle East.

The key transmission channel remains energy. With Europe heavily dependent on imported oil and gas, any disruption involving Iran or the Strait of Hormuz immediately feeds into inflation expectations, bond yields, and corporate earnings outlooks.

At the same time, equity markets had recently been pricing in a relatively optimistic scenario in which diplomatic talks would gradually stabilize the region. That positioning left stocks vulnerable to abrupt reversals when military developments resurfaced.

Sectoral divergence also highlights how uneven the impact of geopolitical shocks can be. Energy-sensitive sectors such as airlines and autos are under pressure, while defensive or domestically oriented companies remain relatively insulated.

The broader question for markets is whether this marks a temporary setback in diplomatic momentum or a deeper breakdown in expectations for a negotiated settlement. If tensions persist, volatility in oil markets is likely to remain the dominant driver of global equity sentiment in the near term.

With information from Reuters.

Brent crude edged 2.5% higher on Tuesday and seems to have steadied around $100 per barrel at the time of writing, as US-Iran negotiations stall.

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On the other hand, WTI dropped over 4% and is trading around $92.6 per barrel.

Overall, oil prices were declining since last Wednesday as the framework for a peace deal, or at least a longer and more encompassing ceasefire, between the US and Iran was seemingly on the verge of being agreed.

However, Iran accused the US of breaching the current ceasefire after Washington carried out what it described as defensive strikes in the southern part of the country.

Iran’s foreign ministry stated that the US attacks in the Hormozgan province, where Iranian media reported hearing explosions early Tuesday, amounted to a “serious violation” of the fragile ceasefire that has been in effect for almost seven weeks.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations aimed at ending the conflict could require “a few days” to reach an agreement.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump also reiterated nuclear demands in a social media post, as tensions continue to surround the fundamental aspects of a possible agreement.

Investors appear to have mixed reactions to the developments with some markets seeming to price in a decrease in the probability that a deal is imminent.

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen more than 0.7% while the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 is trading around 1% lower as we approach the close of Tuesday’s session.

The UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40, Italy’s FTSE MIB, the Netherlands’ AEX and Switzerland’s CH20 have all dropped between 0.1% and 0.7%.

Over in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Taiwan’s TAIEX closed flat, but South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 2.5% primarily driven by a continuous demand for AI-related equities.

However, US markets appear completely decoupled from other indices and the broader situation. Not only have WTI prices continued to fall on Tuesday but the S&P 500 also opened 0.6% higher.

Latest on the Strait of Hormuz

Both the US and Iran had signalled headway toward a memorandum of understanding that could end the conflict and resume maritime traffic through the blocked Strait of Hormuz, while allowing negotiators a 60-day window to tackle more complicated matters such as Iran’s nuclear activities and supplies.

In his latest remarks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the Strait of Hormuz must remain accessible “one way or the other” as traffic through the chokepoint has dropped sharply, with only a few dozen ships currently using the route each day, compared with the usual 125 to 140 vessels.

Iran has continued to permit limited shipping, prioritising vessels connected to allied or friendly nations and arranging passage through state-to-state agreements.

Continuous reports of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz underscore how far from the normalisation of energy flows and other supplies the global economy still is.

On Tuesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a tanker experienced an external blast near the waterline on its port side.

According to the agency, the vessel was located about 60 nautical miles from Muscat, the capital of Oman.

UKMTO said the tanker and all crew members were unharmed, although a quantity of bunker fuel spilled into the sea.

This is the most recent reported incident near the Strait of Hormuz at the time of writing.

May 25 (UPI) — With the United States and Iran reportedly nearing a peace deal, oil prices fell slightly below $100 per barrel early Monday, suggesting optimism from traders to start the week.

Gas prices also declined slightly in the United States in the last week, but remain above $4.50 per gallon for regular on Memorial Day.

President Donald Trump has indicated that negotiations are “proceeding nicely,” and Iran acknowledged that talks have progressed but that a deal has not been reached, The BBC reported.

In European trading, Brent crude dropped to $95.04 per barrel and WTI futures dropped dropped to $91.02 per barrel — both declines of more than 5% — the Wall Street Journal reported.

Even with gas prices high, The Hill reported that more than 39 million people were projected to travel the roads during Memorial Day weekend, even as gas prices have remained consistently high since the start of the war in Iran.

Regular gas on Monday averaged $4.50 per gallon, which is down $0.01 from one week ago, but still $0.40 higher than one month ago, AAA reported.

Similar, diesel averaged $5.59 per gallon on Monday, which is down $0.03 from one week ago, and $0.40 more than one month ago.

“Memorial Day travel is still reaching record levels, but with the smallest year-over-year increase in more than a decade,” said Tiffany Wright, spokesperson for AAA’s The Auto Club.

“Although travel demand remains strong, higher fuel prices and persistent inflation may cause some travelers to shorten trips, delay plans or stay closer to home.”

The longer that the United States and Iran take to agree on a peace plan and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, gas prices are unlikely to decrease significantly and energy markets will take a while to get back to normal, Axios reported.

“Gas prices are currently falling, but until we see an agreement signed and a significant amount of ships transit the Strait, the national average prices of gasoline will likely remain well above $4.00 per gallon,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for Gas Buddy.

The U.S. dollar edged lower, as investors tracked shifting developments around a potential Iran deal and the resulting moves in oil prices, which influenced inflation expectations and safe-haven demand.

The dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a

Japan’s stock market surges to record high on hopes of an end to US-Israel war on Iran.

Oil prices have fallen sharply amid tentative hopes for a deal to end the US-Israel war on Iran.

Brent crude, the primary benchmark for global oil prices, fell about 5 percent on Sunday as US President Donald Trump gave mixed signals on the prospects for a permanent end to the conflict.

Brent futures for July stood at $98.47 a barrel as of 01:05 GMT, down about 9 percent from a month ago but still up by more than a third compared with before the start of the war.

Japan’s benchmark stock index, the Nikkei 225, surged more than 3 percent in morning trading, hitting an all-time high after closing at a record peak on Friday.

Trump said in a social media post on Sunday that negotiations with Tehran were proceeding in an “orderly and constructive manner”, but he had instructed officials “not to rush into a deal”.

“Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump’s remarks came after he raised hopes for a breakthrough on Saturday by announcing that a deal had been “largely negotiated,” with the terms including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Fundamentally, there is no change to the underlying picture, where 10-11 million barrels per day of crude oil continue to be shut-in for every day the Strait of Hormuz remains shut,” June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta in Singapore, told Al Jazeera.

“However, markets are expecting a gush of 100 million barrels of crude oil from the stranded ships to flow out once the deal is in place.”

Goh said markets are likely to remain on edge for some time after any deal is finalised.

“Sparta estimates still about three to six months required to get everything back to status quo, including time to bring production and refineries back online,” Goh said.

Iran has effectively blockaded the strait since the start of the war in late February, disrupting about one-fifth of the global oil trade.

The US has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports since mid-April, further disrupting commercial shipping in the waterway.

In his Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump said the US blockade would remain “in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed”.

Caracas, May 15, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan oil production has moved past 1 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time in over seven years.

The latest OPEC monthly report placed the Caribbean nation’s April output at 1.031 million bpd, as measured by secondary sources. The figure increased by 46,000 bpd compared to the previous month.

For its part, state oil company PDVSA reported April’s production at 1.136 million bpd, up from 1.095 million bpd in March. Direct and secondary measurements have differed over time due to disagreements over the inclusion of natural gas liquids and condensates.

With the oil industry under crushing US coercive measures, crude production plummeted from around 1.9 million bpd when the first sanctions were levied against PDVSA. Following the US imposition of an export embargo in January 2019, output fell under 1 million bpd, hitting decades-lows around 350,000 bpd in 2020 before a steady recovery in recent years.

Since the January 3 US military strikes against Venezuela and kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration has imposed control over the nation’s energy sector, with revenues deposited in US Treasury-run accounts before being partially returned to Caracas at US officials’ discretion. 

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Thursday that “for the first time in over a decade the wealth of Venezuela is benefitting the people of Venezuela,” though he did not mention the impact of US sanctions first imposed in late 2014.

While US coercive measures remain in place, the White House has issued a series of licenses allowing Western corporations to return to the Venezuelan energy sector.

BP, Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Shell are among the companies to have struck oil and natural gas contracts with the Venezuelan government led by Acting President Delcy Rodríguez in past weeks, taking advantage of a recent pro-business legislative overhaul that slashed royalties and taxes, granted private partners increased control over operations and sales, and opened the way for disputes to be settled in international arbitration bodies.

Lesser-known companies Overseas Oil and Crossover Energy have likewise inked agreements for energy projects in the South American country. 

ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are also evaluating prospects for a return to Venezuela, according to the Wall Street Journal. The two oil giants saw their assets nationalized by the former Hugo Chávez government in the 2000s after refusing to accept the country’s reforms asserting sovereignty over the industry. Both corporations would go on to secure compensation via international arbitration, with an award of over US $10 billion to ConocoPhillips still outstanding. 

The recent rebound in oil production coincided with an increase in US-sourced diluent imports. Exports also surged in April to 1.23 million bpd, the highest figure in over seven years. Apart from a growing number of cargoes to US refineries, Indian refiner Reliance is receiving increased shipments after securing US Treasury approval.

In contrast, two tankers reportedly headed to China and Cuba, respectively, will return their cargoes to Venezuelan ports after being intercepted by US naval forces. Prior to the January 3 operation and US control over oil exports, China had been the primary destination for Venezuelan crude. Caracas had likewise been the main supplier of oil to Cuba in the last two decades.

Venezuelan and US authorities have offered no clarity on the return of export proceeds to the South American country, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that Caracas needs to submit a “budget request” before accessing its funds. The Venezuelan Central Bank’s handling of US-disbursed resources will be subjected to outside auditing, with Pentagon and CIA contractor Deloitte reportedly among the companies hired.

Despite the absence of official data on Venezuelan export revenues and the portion being returned to the country, the Rodríguez administration’s injection of foreign currency into exchange tables run by public and private banks increased in April and May. US authorities reportedly mandated that PDVSA revenues be funneled directly to private sector importers via forex auctions as opposed to having the Venezuelan Central Bank run foreign currency assignments.

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Caracas.

The imposition of Venezuelan state sovereignty over the oil industry was one of the pillars of the Bolivarian Revolution from the get-go.

This edition of Tatuy Tv’s “Chávez the Radical” compiles several speeches by Comandante Chávez where he discusses the multiple policies that had subordinated the Venezuelan oil industry to transnational corporate interests and their nefarious consequences.

Issues like state ownership, royalties, taxes, and international arbitration are as relevant as ever today as the country undergoes major pro-business reforms in the oil sector.

Source: Tatuy Tv

US President Donald Trump has called Cuba ‘a failed nation’, as his administration expands its pressure campaign. Cuba has announced it’s getting rid of its fixed prices at the petrol pump as fuel shortages and power cuts worsen.

After successfully launching Nigeria’s only operational oil refinery in 2024, billionaire businessman Aliko Dangote has set his sights on East Africa as the next location for another mega refinery project, according to recent reports.

It comes as African countries are actively seeking ways to make energy more secure, following huge global disruptions amid the US and Israel’s war on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas is shipped.

Dangote, Africa’s richest man, appeared to be one of the winners from this fallout when his newly operational refinery, located in Nigeria’s commercial Lagos State, began selling large volumes of crude oil across the continent as the war on Iran escalated in March and global oil prices soared.

At present, West, South and East Africa rely primarily on importing refined petroleum products from the Middle East, meaning they are highly vulnerable to disruptions there.

Neighbours of Nigeria – Cameroon, Togo, Ghana and even Tanzania, further to the east – are among the countries that have turned to Nigeria as supplies from the Middle East dry up.

By the end of March, the refinery, which has the capacity to produce 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), reported it was also receiving orders from beyond the continent, especially for severely scarce jet fuel as hundreds of flights were cancelled across regions.

Supply from Dangote’s refinery has cushioned the impact of the war in terms of fuel supply for Nigeria and neighbouring countries, analysts say.

Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil producer, and the $19bn project in Lagos is currently the world’s largest single-train refinery, meaning it employs a single processing line rather than multiple units. But it hit full production capacity in February 2026, the same month the war with Iran started.

Nigeria has no functional state-owned refinery, so Dangote’s refinery is now positioning the country to be a net exporter of jet fuel and diesel.

Here’s why more refining capacity in Africa matters for the continent:

What is Dangote’s plan for an East Africa refinery?

In April, Kenya’s President William Ruto announced that East African countries were in talks to build a joint oil refinery at Tanzania’s Tanga port, which would have a similar capacity to Dangote’s Lagos operation.

“We do not want to be held hostage any more by the Strait of Hormuz,” Ruto said at a Nairobi business event in April, which Dangote was present at.

“We do not want to be held hostage by wars that are started by other people. We have our resources here, and we are saying we are going to use our African resources to industrialise our region.”

In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, however, Dangote said he would prefer to build the new operation in Kenya rather than Tanzania.

“I’m leaning more towards Mombasa because Mombasa has a much larger, deeper port,” the billionaire told the UK newspaper.

“Kenyans consume more. It’s a bigger economy,” he said, adding that “the ball is in the hands of President Ruto … Whatever President Ruto says is what I’ll do.”

He has projected construction costs of between $15bn and $17bn.

But venturing into East Africa, which has a very different commercial landscape from West Africa, could prove a challenge, analyst Dumebi Oluwole of Lagos-based intelligence firm Stears told Al Jazeera.

“Dangote has proven it [his operation] can build at scale,” she said. “The East African test will be whether it can also navigate the political and logistical landscape of a fragmented, multi-country market.”

Why aren’t African countries already producing more oil?

Despite having sizeable crude reserves, African countries only refine about 44 percent of the total oil consumed themselves, with imports making up the rest, according to a 2022 African Union report.

The top producers of refined oil are Algeria, Egypt and South Africa. There are about 21 refineries in North Africa.

Southern Africa has another seven, while West Africa has 14. However, most refineries in the two regions are either not operating or are producing below the capacity they are equipped to.

East Africa’s only existing refinery is in Mombasa, but it stopped operating in 2013 due to a combination of slow government policies and exiting investors, who deemed it commercially unviable as a result.

There is currently no refining capacity at all in East Africa, despite the region having about 4.7 billion barrels of crude reserves, according to the African Union, mainly in Uganda, South Sudan, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Kenya imported 40 million barrels of petroleum in 2025. It regularly buys oil from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, India and Oman, all of which have been hampered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Nigeria itself is Africa’s biggest net crude producer with a 1.5 million to 1.6 million bpd capacity. The country has not refined meaningfully since 2019.

What difference will local refineries make for African countries?

Exporting most of its crude to then import refined products is expensive and puts Africa on the back foot, analyst Oluwole said.

More oil refined on the continent would mean lower petrol pump prices, lower transport costs, and more energy available for people and businesses, in theory. It would also mean greater access to by-products like fertilisers for farmers, for example, or petrochemicals for manufacturers.

“Dangote has demonstrated that a viable, scalable, intra-African energy supply option is possible – that proof of concept matters enormously,” said Oluwole.

“It reflects a growing continental conviction that Africa can provide for itself, and that this is no longer wishful thinking,” she added.

In Nigeria’s case, Dangote’s refinery is yet to ease pressures, though. Local airlines, for example, have complained about having to pay high prices for jet fuel even with improved local supplies. Analysts say that could be because Nigeria’s government removed fuel subsidies in 2023. Bureaucracy within the state oil company also forced Dangote’s refinery to import crude.

Still, the refinery is contributing to “a more transparent and competitive market”, Oluwole said, adding that results should eventually show.

Other countries are stepping up. Last week, Angola’s $470m Cabinda refinery began supplying domestic as well as foreign markets. The project is owned primarily by the United Kingdom’s Gemcorp Capital and has a capacity of 30,000bpd, with plans to double by the end of 2026.

Dangote’s planned refinery in Kenya, if completed, could also help to reduce East Africa’s reliance on the Middle East.

A separate, government-funded refinery project in Uganda’s Hoima region is also in the works. Authorities expect the project to be able to refine 60,000bpd when it starts operations in 2029. It will be fed by the joint Uganda-Tanzania East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), an ongoing project which will transport crude from Uganda’s Lake Albert to Tanzania’s Tanga Port.

Uganda also plans to produce diesel, jet fuel, kerosene and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).

With big plans in place, Oluwole says it’s now left to African governments to create enabling business environments for the private sector.

“Dangote has opened the door,” she said. “The question now is whether African institutions and governments will walk through it.”