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Oil rises as markets rebound on US Treasury debt buyback plan

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Oil prices rose on Thursday, holding near their highest levels in weeks, as the deadlocked standoff between the United States and Iran kept supply concerns elevated in the Middle East.


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Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 0.3% to $91.90 a barrel, while US benchmark crude edged up 0.2% to $84.57 a barrel.

Prices have climbed steadily since the start of August, when Brent was trading at around $87.38 a barrel, as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keeps supply concerns elevated even without any single new escalation.

Both benchmarks remain well above the barrel prices they were trading at before the war began.

Markets rebound on Treasury move

Global shares rallied on Thursday, reversing course after Wednesday’s heavy sell-off in artificial intelligence-related stocks, after the US Treasury Department said it would at least double the size of its buyback operations for longer-dated government debt, to $4 billion (€3.4bn) or more per operation, starting in September.

The move eased pressure on bond markets that had pushed yields to multi-decade highs in recent months, and lifted risk appetite across Asia.

South Korea’s Kospi surged 6.1% to 6,858.91, rebounding sharply after sinking 5.8% on Wednesday. Samsung Electronics jumped 9.7%, while SK Hynix surged 14.1% after the memory chipmaker announced a share buyback plan.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added roughly 0.9%, while the Topix rose 0.8%, recovering some of Wednesday’s losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.1% to 25,786.32, and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% to 3,905.23. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.3% to 9,066.40.

Bond yields ease from multi-decade highs

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to around 4.64%, from 4.71% on Tuesday, while the 30-year yield dropped to 5.18% from 5.28% — pulling back from its highest level since 2007.

Yields have climbed in recent months on concerns over inflation stemming from the war in Iran and rising government debt.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, which had been trading near a three-decade high, fell to around 2.83% from more than 2.89% on Wednesday.

On Wall Street on Wednesday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.2% for its first gain in four sessions, snapping a three-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq composite each added 0.2%.

The US dollar rose to 158.60 yen from 158.16, while the euro slipped slightly to $1.1676 from $1.1677.

Additional sources • AP

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U.S. stocks fall as rising bond yields, oil prices spook investors

Aug. 18 (UPI) — Stocks fell on all three major U.S. indices Tuesday as investors were spooked by elevated bond yields and the prospect of higher oil prices as the war between the United States and Iran drags on without apparent resolution.

Tech stocks led the downturn as the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.3%, followed by losses on the S&P 500 (0.6%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.2%).

Most analysts put the blame for the markets’ poor showing on news that 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5.3% for the first time since the global financial crisis in 2007, reflecting sagging demand from global buyers willing to underwrite sovereign U.S. debt.

Concerns over rampant government deficit spending and the United States’ burgeoning debt of nearly $40 trillion are pushing treasury yields higher, analysts noted.

The shorter 10-year Treasury, meanwhile, ended above 4.7%, compared to below 4% before the start of the Iran War in February.

Rising “T-bill” yields are considered a danger signal for the broader economy and consumer spending because they can have the knock-on effect of pushing up virtually all borrowing costs, from auto loans to mortgages.

The latter is being reflected in costlier mortgage rates. A 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage on Tuesday stood at 6.75% after ending last week at 6.69%.

Meanwhile, oil prices on Tuesday reached their highest level in more than two weeks after President Donald Trump threatened to “bomb” Oman if it interferes with his plans to open the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The benchmark Brent crude futures traded around $91 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose to $84 per barrel.

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Erdogan calls for Strait of Hormuz reopening amid oil disruption | Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, stating that global oil flows must resume. He added that both Turkey and Iran support keeping oil moving through the strategic waterway at the centre of US–Iran tensions.

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Cleanup underway as Russian oil spill reaches Oman’s coastline | US-Israel war on Iran

Cleanup crews are responding along 12 kilometres of Omani coastline following an oil spill from the grounded tanker Caroline Bezengi. Carrying roughly 800,000 barrels of Russian crude, the vessel ran aground near a marine reserve, raising fears of a severe ecological crisis.

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European Shares Flat as Iran Tensions Lift Oil Prices

European shares were little changed on Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline as investors weighed stalled U.S. Iran peace efforts, rising oil prices and upcoming euro zone economic data.

The STOXX 600 edged up 0.05% to 659.65 by 0710 GMT, staying close to record highs despite losses earlier in the week.

European equities have continued to receive support from a strong earnings season. Second quarter profit expectations for Europe’s blue chip companies have increased for an eighth consecutive week, with aggregate STOXX 600 earnings now expected to rise 23.4%, driven largely by strong energy and materials profits.

Iran Tensions Push Oil Higher

Renewed geopolitical tensions have nevertheless weakened investor appetite for risk.

Stay ahead of the geopolitical week.

MD Briefing delivers expert analysis across five global fronts — the Indo-Pacific, energy, geoeconomics, European security, and the Middle East — every Monday morning. Free.

Oil futures rose 1% to $87.93 a barrel after the United States threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, raising concerns over potential disruptions to global crude supplies.

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remained deadlocked, with both sides adopting tougher positions in recent days.

Higher oil prices could add to inflationary pressure and complicate the outlook for central banks if the conflict continues to disrupt energy markets.

Investors Watch Economic Data

Markets also took some reassurance from softer U.S. consumer and producer price data released this week, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may avoid further monetary tightening.

Attention now turns to euro zone employment and GDP data for further clues about the health of the regional economy.

Technology Stocks Lead Gains

European technology stocks were among the strongest performers, with the sector rising 1.4%.

Basic resources stocks were the biggest decliners, falling 1.6% as investors assessed the impact of geopolitical uncertainty and commodity price movements.

Corporate news remained limited as Europe’s earnings season approached its end.

With information from Reuters.

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Salvage work begins on tanker leaking oil off Oman, risk firm says | Oil and Gas News

A salvage operation is under way to stabilise the stricken tanker behind a major oil spill off Oman, the risk management company coordinating the effort has said.

The announcement by Ambrey on Thursday came a day after Oman’s environmental authority confirmed that oil from the Caroline Bezengi had reached beaches along the sultanate’s central coast.

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The tanker, a suspected member of Russia’s shadow fleet used to transport sanctioned Russian oil, has been leaking crude into waters near the Hallaniyat archipelago since June, when the ship’s crew reported an unidentified explosion.

Ambrey said it was working with Omani authorities and that its services had been engaged as part of a “significant international response” that included salvage vessels, aircraft and specialist personnel.

Apart from Oman and an unnamed “leading international oil spill response company”, Ambrey did not elaborate on which other countries or firms were involved in the effort to salvage the vessel, which has flown the flags of states including Cameroon, Palau and Liberia.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) – the United Nations maritime agency – said on Thursday that it was “closely monitoring” the situation and would “continue to support ongoing efforts”, without providing further details.

The International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds, a pair of intergovernmental organisations established to provide compensation for oil pollution, said it would not be involved in the cleanup operation after determining that the incident likely resulted from an act of war.

Ambrey, based in Hereford in the United Kingdom, said it expected salvage vessels to reach the Caroline Bezengi soon and that specialist personnel had already boarded the vessel to begin stabilising its cargo.

Ed Wollaston, director of global response at Ambrey, said the “extremely challenging situation” had been complicated by adverse weather from the annual Khareef monsoon.

“However, we have deployed the leading experts in each aspect of the response and have mobilised the appropriate supporting equipment, aircraft and vessels,” Wollaston said in a statement.

“We are working around the clock to mitigate the environmental impact of the situation.”

A satellite photo shows the tanker Caroline Bezengi, grounded and partly submerged off the coast of Oman, on August 5, 2026
A satellite photo shows the tanker Caroline Bezengi, grounded and partly submerged off the coast of Oman, on August 5, 2026 [File: Pleiades © CNES 2026, Distribution Airbus DS via AP]

The oil spill has expanded dramatically in size over the past week, according to analyses of satellite imagery, raising fears for coastlines and ecosystems in the region, including a marine reserve established last year off the Hallaniyat archipelago.

Environmental NGO Greenpeace said on Thursday that, based on satellite imagery, the spill had grown from 45 square kilometres (17sq miles) in late July to about 1,300sq kilometres (502sq miles) as of Wednesday.

Omani authorities as recently as Monday estimated the size of the spill at approximately 400sq kilometres (154sq miles).

Hanen Keskes, Greenpeace’s head of campaigns for the MENA region, said the circumstances of the spill made it “especially challenging” to respond to.

“Given the scale of this – a damaged tanker in a remote location, during monsoon season, with no clear owner or verified insurer to compel a rapid response – this is a case where international assistance should be mobilised urgently,” Keskes told Al Jazeera.

“Capabilities like specialised salvage equipment and expertise can exceed what any one country has on hand, and every day of delay allows more oil to disperse.”

Najmedin Meshkati, an expert in oil spills and a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Southern California, said that authorities should have moved faster to contain the spill.

“That two-month interval was the response window, and it closed. In spill response, source control on day three is worth many multiples of source control on day 60,” Meshkati told Al Jazeera.

Meshkati acknowledged, however, that Omani authorities had been dealt a difficult situation.

“It was handed an orphaned wreck with no responsive owner, no verifiable insurer, no functioning flag state, and a compensation regime containing a war exclusion that may void it entirely,” Meshkati said.

“No mid-sized maritime administration on earth is resourced for that. But that is precisely the argument for escalating harder and earlier.”

Damilola S Olawuyi, a professor of energy and environmental law at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar, said the spill highlighted the need for stronger international mechanisms to hold polluters accountable.

“The obligation of the entity responsible for pollution to pay for the cost of cleanup and remediation, ie, the polluter pays principle, has for long been a bedrock of international law,” Olawuyi told Al Jazeera.

“However, in an era of increasing geopolitical realignments, identifying the responsible polluter has become complex, therefore complicating effective risk reduction, response and remediation measures,” he said.

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Oman says massive oil spill reaches coastline: What damage could it do? | Environment News

A vast oil spill from a leaking tanker reached Oman’s coastline on Wednesday, its environment agency said.

This oil spill threatens to become one of the world’s worst in years after spreading largely unchecked for several weeks, experts say.

On Monday, Oman said it was working to contain the spill, which had by then affected roughly 390 square kilometres (150sq miles), according to analysis by the country’s environment agency.

The slick now covers an area of more than 2,000sq km (770sq miles), said John Amos, an oil spill specialist who reviewed satellite imagery obtained by Reuters. It could affect about 40km (25 miles) of coast near Ras Madraka, as well as Masirah Island, Oman’s Environment Authority said.

Here’s what we know.

What happened?

Oil has been leaking from the tanker Caroline Bezengi since it ran aground about 22 nautical miles (41km) from the Omani coastal town of Sharbithat some time after the crew reported a suspected explosion on June 8. It had been en route from Russia to India.

Reuters reported that the tanker was carrying an estimated 800,000 barrels of sanctioned oil and that it ran aground on June 30.

An investigation by the news agency AFP found that the ship had been stranded for several weeks near Oman’s al-Qibliyyah Island.

In the meantime, the oil has been spreading towards Oman’s coastline.

The Oman News Agency (ONA) quoted the country’s environment authority saying that “today’s monitoring results showed that some beaches in the Ras Madrakah area were affected by oil pollution”.

The Indian Ocean town sits about 200km (125 miles) from al-Qibliyyah.

The slick is now concentrated around the Hallaniyat Archipelago off the southern coast, where a marine reserve was established last year to protect sensitive ecosystems home to diverse marine life, including rare sea turtles.

On Wednesday, the ONA reported that “a coastal stretch of up to 40 km in the [Ras Madrakah] area is expected to be affected”.

The southern beaches of Masirah Island, which lies 15km (nine miles) off the coast of Oman, could be contaminated “in the coming hours”, affecting a 10-20km (six-to-12-mile) stretch of coastline, it said.

An unnamed spokesperson for the United Nations International Maritime Organization said it was “closely monitoring” the leakage.

The damaged and half-sunk oil tanker Caroline Bezengi, at sea off the coast of Oman, on a date given as August 6, 2026
The damaged and half-sunk oil tanker Caroline Bezengi, at sea off the coast of Oman, on a date given as August 6, 2026 [Ambrey/Handout via Reuters]

How did this happen?

British maritime security company Vanguard told AFP that the tanker had suffered “explosions” in early June as it sailed off the coast of Yemen, causing water to enter several sections of the vessel. It ran aground off the coast of Oman some time after this.

There has been no official explanation for the explosions and no party has claimed an attack. However, the vessel was navigating two separate wars on its journey from Russia to India. Tankers have been frequently targeted in the Gulf region in recent months as the US war on Iran has continued.

In April, the Caroline Bezengi sailed from the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, a flashpoint in the Russia-Ukraine war.

It is believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to circumvent Western sanctions on its oil exports. It last sailed under a Cameroonian flag.

Rentoor Shipmanagement and Villar Shipmanagement, both based in China, are registered as the ship’s owner and operator, respectively, according to the open-source database OpenSanctions.

Russia’s shadow fleet includes ageing vessels that have often been criticised for poor maintenance, lack of insurance and lacklustre safety standards.

Ukraine has previously carried out assaults on shadow fleet vessels believed to be carrying Russian oil.

The Caroline Bezengi then passed through the Suez Canal at the end of May, ship-tracking data shows, before sailing through the Red Sea and past Yemen, where the Iran-aligned Houthi fighters have entered a wider regional war between the United States, Israel and Iran and are targeting Saudi Arabia-flagged ships.

What damage could the oil spill cause?

Last week, advocacy group Greenpeace warned that the spill was on the verge of causing an “environmental disaster”.

Christopher D’Elia, a specialist in oil spills and a professor emeritus at Louisiana State University in the United States, told Al Jazeera the estimated 800,000 barrels of crude on board the Caroline Bezengi would amount to a “fairly large spill”.

“This spill raises a lot of issues,” D’Elia told Al Jazeera.

“These illegal tankers don’t comply with the ‘polluter pays’ principle that is the basis for how the US and other developed nations regulate spills,” D’Elia said.

“The ‘responsible party’ must finance the cleanup in the US. In this case, there is no responsible party.”

Meanwhile, Iranian media reported on Wednesday that a separate oil spill in the Strait of Hormuz had reached the island of Qeshm, affecting beaches and an environmentally sensitive mangrove forest.

State-run news agency IRNA said the slick had affected areas on Qeshm’s southern coast, as well as parts of the smaller neighbouring island of Hengam.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said pollution had been observed at three locations and on the sea surface, adding that its source seemed to be a “foreign bulk carrier”, without specifying the name of the ship.

The risk of oil spills in the Gulf has risen sharply because of strikes on tankers during the five-month US-Iran war. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has reported 65 incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and across the Middle East since the beginning of March.

“Any party that benefits from commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is legally and morally obligated to take action to compensate for and remedy the environmental damage caused to the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman,” he said.

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IEA and OPEC split on global oil demand estimates as Strait of Hormuz closure drags

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Two of the most influential voices in energy markets set out opposing readings of the year on Wednesday.


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The IEA now expects the world to burn less oil in 2026 than it did in 2025, its first such call since Covid-19 ground the global economy to a near-halt, while OPEC still pencils in growth, leaving them more than two million barrels a day apart.

The Paris-based IEA now expects global oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, a downgrade of 510,000 b/d from July.

“The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices continue to weigh on oil consumption,” it said, cutting its second-half forecast by roughly 550,000 b/d.

OPEC still expects demand to grow, though its estimate has been trimmed for a fourth consecutive month, to 580,000 b/d from 780,000 b/d.

The producer group has consistently argued the war has done less damage to consumption than Western forecasters believe, and the two sets of numbers imply a difference of about 2.2 mb/d in what the world will burn this year.

Supply still 6.3 million barrels short

The supply picture explains the pessimism.

Global production rose by 2.4 mb/d to 101.5 mb/d in July but remained 6.3 mb/d below year-earlier levels, with 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output still shut in.

Gulf production climbed to 23.9 mb/d, yet regional exports fell 2.1 mb/d to 15 mb/d after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed again in early July and tankers and infrastructure came under attack, with loadings sliding from 20 mb/d to around 12 mb/d.

With no deal to reopen the waterway or secure passage through Bab el-Mandeb, the IEA cut its supply forecasts again and now expects output to fall by 4.3 mb/d this year.

Observed global stocks also dropped by 69 million barrels in July to just under 7.9 billion, down 410 million since the war began.

Both bet on 2027

Where the two agree is next year.

OPEC now expects demand to grow by 2.2 mb/d in 2027, an upgrade from the 1.94 mb/d it forecast last month, while the IEA goes further still at 2.4 mb/d.

That is an inversion worth highlighting, as the gloomier forecaster for this year delivers a more bullish read for the next.

The IEA reads the damage as a blockage rather than a collapse, oil that cannot reach buyers rather than demand that has vanished, so the deeper this year’s hole, the steeper the climb out of it once Hormuz reopens.

OPEC, which never accepted that consumption fell much, has less ground to make up for.

The agency’s outlook rests explicitly on de-escalation, assuming flows gradually recover and turning this year’s supply contraction into growth of 8.3 mb/d, flipping a 1.3 mb/d deficit into a 4.6 mb/d surplus.

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IEA warns of sharp drop in global oil stocks due to Hormuz Strait closure

The International Energy Agency warned Wednesday of sharp drop in oil stocks amid renewed disruption to exports from Gulf producers with the Iran war seeing “lower volumes” transiting the seas to markets around the world. File photo by Olivier Matthys/EPA

Aug. 12 (UPI) — The International Energy Agency warned Wednesday of a sharp drop in global stocks oil amid renewed disruption to exports via the Hormuz Strait and Caspian Sea resulting in “lower volumes of oil” transiting the seas to markets around the world.

In its August Oil Market Report, the agency said measurable global oil inventories — strategic reserves, on tankers at sea — plunged by 69 million barrels in July to just under 7.9 million barrels, down from 410 million barrels per day at the start of the war at the end of February.

Onshore stocks declined by just 6 million barrels per day as the pace of IEA releases of its emergency stocks eased, even as China continued to draw down on its crude oil reserves.

“Although the market is projected to return to surplus towards the end of this year, risks remain substantial and the urgency of reopening the Strait has increased, as previously available inventory buffers are rapidly depleting,” the IEA said.

The IEA data comes two days after the U.S. Department of Energy said the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve had fallen to less than 300 million barrels in the previous week, its lowest level in 43 years — but still well above the 70 million barrel minimum for it to run as intended.

President Donald Trump ordered 172 million barrels to be released in March after exports from Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE were severely curtailed by Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Use of other routes to move oil and the drawing down of inventories, including China’s massive 1.4 billion barrel reserve which has seen a sharp drop in its oil imports, have so far helped ward off the damaging global oil shortage it was feared the closure of the Hormuz Strait would trigger.

The IEA also warned that the destruction of global demand for oil was escalating, driven by the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel prices suppressing consumption, forecasting a 1.6 million barrels per day drop in demand in 2026, up from its previous estimate of 1 million barrels per day.

However, it said said the pace of market contraction would slow, down from a 4.9 million barrels per day decline in the second quarter to 2.8 million barrels per day drop in the third quarter, and return to growth in the final quarter, with expansion of global demand of 2.4 million barrels per day expected in 2027.

On the supply side, the IEA said overall production for 2026 would fall more sharply than demand, but would bounce back to outpace demand in 2027.

Production rose by 2.4 million barrels per day to 101.5 barrels per day in July, but remained well short of the 6.3 million barrels per day supply growth pace seen in July 2025, with 8.3 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf output “still shut in.”

“Renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions in July and early August undermined the recovery efforts, reducing projected third quarter 2026 oil supply by 1.7 million barrels per day compared with last month’s report.

“Global oil supply is now projected to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day on average in 2026 and rebound by 8.3 million barrels per day next year to 110.3 million barrels per day,” the IEA said.

Martin Luther King Jr. delivers his famed “I Have a Dream” speech from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington on August 28, 1963. The speech galvanized the nation’s civil rights movements and led to the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, the 1965 Voting Rights Act and the 1968 Fair Housing Act. File photo by UPI | License Photo

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World markets mixed as oil and gold rise ahead of US inflation data

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Oil prices climbed and world stocks were mixed on Wednesday, with Asian shares mostly higher even as Wall Street slipped further from last week’s record highs, as investors awaited a crucial US inflation reading and watched for any breakthrough in the stalled Iran war talks.


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The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 0.9% at $89.67 early on Wednesday. US benchmark crude picked up 0.9% to $83.98.

Gold edged up 0.8% to $4,400.44 an ounce, while silver gained 1% to $65.30 an ounce.

Iran has rejected a comment by US President Donald Trump suggesting that, since Tehran is seeking compensation as part of any talks to end the war, Washington would demand the same.

The United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February, a strike that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and kept much of the world’s oil pent up in the Middle East. Last month alone, Brent’s price swung between $72 and $102 a barrel.

Meanwhile, an attack by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on a vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, off Yemen’s southern tip, has raised concerns that the violence could reignite civil war and further threaten regional shipping routes.

Higher oil prices worsen inflation, and they have pushed the average cost of a gallon of regular petrol in the US to $4.01, according to AAA — up from less than $3.14 a year ago.

That has Wall Street’s attention fixed on Wednesday, when the US government releases its latest monthly inflation reading. Economists expect it to show inflation slipped to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% for a second modest drop since setting its all-time high on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 184 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite sank 0.6%.

Cooler inflation could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to tamp down price increases.

Higher rates could curb inflation, but they would also drag on the wider US economy by making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow, while undercutting prices for stocks and other investments.

Treasury yields have jumped since the war with Iran began, driven by higher oil prices and inflation worries, sending long-term US mortgage rates to their highest levels in a year.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.6% to 67,334.94.

In South Korea, the Kospi jumped more than 4% to 6,597.90 on renewed buying of computer chipmakers. Samsung Electronics gained 7.7% and memory chipmaker SK Hynix rose 7.1%.

Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 0.8%.

The Shanghai Composite index added 0.3% to 3,946.51, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.2% to 25,352.13.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.6% to 9,197.00.

In other early Wednesday dealings, the dollar rose to 159.41 yen from 159.30 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1535 from $1.1544.

Additional sources • AP

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Oil prices rise to $90 per barrel, then dip slightly

Aug. 11 (UPI) — The price of oil reached $90 per barrel Tuesday as Iran and President Donald Trump traded jabs about war reparations, decreasing hopes for a new peace deal.

The price dipped back down to $87 as of Tuesday morning.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose 19 cents to $82.32 per barrel around 8 a.m. EDT. Brent crude was up to $87.74.

Prices had dipped when Pakistan’s Defense Minister said the two warring countries were “close to some sort of arrangement.”

But on Monday, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social demanding that Iran pay reparations, dimming hopes for peace. That caused a 3% spike.

The contradictory statements between Washington and Tehran also added to the fears Monday, as Trump said the United States has “100%” control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that the two sides were engaging, but not in person.

“The oil market remains very headline-driven, which leaves prices whipsawing. The latest bout of optimism is quickly fading,” ING strategists wrote in a Tuesday note, CNBC reported. “Current rhetoric suggests any potential deal is still some way off, meaning risks remain skewed to the upside for oil prices.”

Analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a research note that fears of higher inflation are coming from worries of a long standoff, The New York Times reported.

“That in turn led to mounting speculation about central bank rate hikes, with investors pricing in a more hawkish path for the months ahead,” the bank wrote.

The average gasoline price stayed at $4.11 a gallon Tuesday, a 38% increase since the start of the war with Iran.

President Donald Trump hosts Olympic and Paralympic medal-winning athletes during a reception for Team USA in the East Room of the White House on Thursday. The reception honored the team’s medal achievements during this year’s Winter Games, where American athletes earned 57 total medals, including 25 gold. Photo by Aaron Schwartz/UPI | License Photo

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Oil prices and US bond yields rise as Trump and Iran trade reparations demands

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Crude and US Treasury yields rose together as traders judged that the exchange of compensation demands between the US and Iran has pushed any potential deal further out of reach.


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The US president said on Monday he had told his negotiators to seek payment from Iran for Americans killed and wounded in attacks he attributes to Tehran going back decades, including the bombing of the USS Cole in the year 2000 and for Iranians killed in protest crackdowns.

In a follow-up post on Truth Social he expanded on the demand, saying Iran should also pay for “the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza”.

Tehran, whose representatives had sought compensation for five months of US and Israeli bombardment, says the Strait of Hormuz will stay shut until Washington lifts its naval blockade, ends sanctions and releases frozen Iranian assets.

The front month contract on Brent traded at around $89.8 a barrel on Tuesday and West Texas Intermediate at about $84.2, both up roughly 2.5%.

The US bond market read it the same way, with yields rising across the US curve in a modest global sell-off, the two-year over 4.25%, the ten-year above 4.7% and the thirty-year higher than 5.27%. The yields for all durations are trading at the highs of this year.

Since yields move inversely to prices, the rise means investors are selling government debt as they expect that costlier oil will feed into inflation and strengthen the case for higher interest rates.

Money markets now put roughly even odds on a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, with July inflation data due on Wednesday.

Control claimed, traffic missing

The current stalling of US-Iran negotiations is deliberate as US President Donald Trump appears to have been favouring a slower approach as of late.

The US president told Axios in an interview published on Sunday that the US is “low-keying it,” meaning Washington was only semi-negotiating and content to watch Iran’s inflation and empty coffers do the work, a signal he is prepared to let economic pressure mount rather than order a fresh military campaign.

In the Oval Office on Monday, he struck a triumphant note, claiming the US controls “100%” of the Strait of Hormuz, that only the US Navy holds sway in the region, that American forces have swept it clear of Iranian mines and that the blockade of Iranian ports is impenetrable.

However, shipping data tells another story.

Confirmed crossings have run at 6 to 11 vessels a day recently, against the 130 to 140 daily before the war, according to Kpler data, leaving traffic at a fraction of normal levels throughout the five-month conflict.

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Huge fire breaks out at Libya’s Zawiya refinery after drone attack | Oil and Gas News

Libya’s National Oil Corporation warns it may halt operations at the country’s largest operating refinery if drone attacks continue.

Firefighters in Libya are battling a massive blaze at the Zawiya refinery following a drone attack, with the country’s national oil company warning it may declare a force majeure and shut down operations if attacks continue.

Libya’s Ambulance and Emergency Service said in a statement on Tuesday there were no “serious injuries” from the fire, with most patients treated for smoke inhalation.

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Footage verified by Al Jazeera showed huge flames and thick black ‌smoke billowing over the facility, the largest operating refinery in Libya with a refining capacity of 120,000 barrels per day.

It is located about 40km (25 miles) west of the capital, Tripoli.

The National Oil Corporation (NOC) said in a statement on Facebook that the fire broke out on Monday evening at tank number 402-T, belonging to the Brega Oil Company.

It said the tank, which contained about 4.5 million litres (1.2 million gallons) of gasoline, was “directly targeted, resulting in a severe fire before the tank completely collapsed”.

The NOC said the attack followed drone strikes on a water desalination plant at the refinery on Sunday and on a naphtha reservoir on Saturday.

The company declared a “maximum emergency” in the region and urged authorities to launch an investigation and bring the perpetrators to justice.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks, and the company did ‌not say who they believed was behind them.

In a statement hours later, the NOC said the refinery was “still being subject to sabotage attacks” with a drone targeting an oil blending and filling ⁠plant operated by the Zawiya Oil Refining Company.

It said the drone fell near its main oil tank and a pipeline network used to produce oils for the domestic market, without causing any casualties or damage.

“The company’s board of directors also confirms that if these attacks continue, it will have to declare a state of force majeure and suspend operations at the refinery,” it warned.

The Brega Oil Company, meanwhile, appealed to “all parties to stop the fighting and stay away from oil facilities and depots”. It said “oil facilities are vital infrastructure and owned by all Libyans” and that “protecting them is a national responsibility that does not tolerate any negligence”.

The attacks highlight the continuing security challenges in Libya, where rival administrations and armed groups have retained influence despite a ‌2020 ⁠ceasefire that halted major warfare. The country split in 2014 after a NATO-backed uprising that toppled longtime leader Muammar ⁠Gaddafi in 2011.

Two governments are currently vying for power: the United Nations-recognised administration in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, and a rival in the east backed by military commander Khalifa Haftar.

In a statement, the Tripoli-based government said Dbeibah held a meeting earlier in the day with key officials, including the interior minister and the chiefs of some armed groups in the capital, “to follow up on the latest security developments”.

Dbeibah “stressed the need to deal firmly with any transgressions or actions that threaten security or harm vital facilities and installations”, the statement said.

Separately, a Libyan parliamentary panel condemned the attack and called for stronger protection of oil installations.

“The House of Representatives’ Energy and Natural Resources Committee condemns in the strongest terms the criminal attack targeting the Zawiya Refinery, one of the most vital facilities in the oil and gas sector that is a cornerstone of the national economy,” it said in a statement.

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Oil prices rise as traders assess US-Iran talks on Strait of Hormuz deal

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Oil prices rose in early trading on Monday as market participants weighed mixed signals from the US and Iran, with concerns that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could take longer to materialise.


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Futures for international benchmark Brent crude for October delivery gained 1.04% to $84.42 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures for September advanced 0.83% to $78.83 a barrel.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards insisted on Sunday that they would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the US complied with a list of demands.

Tehran insists on retaining control of the waterway – through which a fifth of world oil and LNG pass – after the war and wants to charge tolls for passage, which Washington has pushed back against.

Attacks in the strait, which was free to transit before the war, led to the collapse of an April ceasefire, and mediators have urged both sides to return to the terms of a subsequent June memorandum that set out a path for peace talks.

Iran on Saturday released a list of conditions for reopening the strait, including an end to the war on all fronts, the lifting of a US counterblockade of Iranian ports, the end of sanctions, the release of frozen assets and compensation for wartime damage, the Tasnim news agency reported.

Those conditions echoed the terms of the June agreement, which included a provision to create a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday that their strategy was to maintain their blockade “until the enemy accepts all our conditions… the strait is now actually a theatre of war for us and not just a waterway”.

For his part, US President Donald Trump said in an interview: “We are low-keying it.”

“We are only semi-negotiating with them,” he was quoted as saying. “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”

“It will work out,” he added. “It’s like a chess game.”

Additional sources • AFP

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Trump-linked oil firm prepares to drill in Greenland but lacks permits

A demonstrator (C) holds a sign that reads “Make America go away” as others wave flags during a protest outside the US consulate in Nuuk, Greenland. File Photo Oscar Scott Carl/EPA

Aug. 8 (UPI) — Greenland has issued a “strong warning” to an American oil company linked to President Donald Trump, as it prepares to drill on the territory despite lacking proper permits.

Local residents in the southeastern region of Jameson Land recently spotted a barge carrying drilling equipment, The Guardian reported.

The equipment belongs to Greenland Energy, a Texas-based oil company whose chairman, Larry Swets, is part of Trump’s inner-circle.

Two days after a rebuke from the Greenlandic government, the president posted on Truth Social an AI-generated image showing a giant Trump, looming over the island, with the words, “Hello, Greenland!”

Greenland Energy officials said they plan to spend $60 million to drill two wells in Jameson Land, the Guardian reported. The company believes there could be as much as $1 trillion of crude in the region.

“The Department of Industry and Minerals can, in connection with the above, state that the licensee did not have the necessary approvals from the mineral resources authority in place before initiating this operation,” Greenland’s government said in a statement.

The statement added the government was sending a “strong warning” to the operators behind the move.

Due to environmental concerns, the Greenlandic government has not issued oil licenses since 2021.

But Greenland Energy acquired exploration rights previously held by British company 80 Mile. In exchange for funding exploration, Greenland Energy would retain a majority of the proceeds from the venture, the Helsinki Times reported.

Transferring the rights still requires government approval, which Greenland Energy has not yet managed.

“The approval has since expired and has not currently been renewed, but is under processing,” the government said in the statement.

A spokesperson for Greenland Energy said the company has 300 containers of drilling equipment ready to be shipped from Canada in September, with the goal of launching operations in earnest in October, the Guardian reported.

Trump has, for years, been adamant in his desire to annex Greenland. He has claimed the United States needs it “for defense.”

In January, he told European leaders that one of the reasons he renewed his push to own the territory was because he did not win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump has been rebuffed by officials in both Denmark and Greenland.

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Oil prices fall on hopes Strait of Hormuz could reopen

Oil prices fell to a three-week low on Tuesday as senior US officials raised hopes of a deal with Iran to reopen the key Strait of Hormuz waterway.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both announced talks had progressed to allow shipments to potentially resume as soon as this week.

The cost of a barrel of brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, fell by almost 5% to under $80 on the news of supply disruptions potentially being eased.

But the failure of previous negotiations in recent months to de-escalate the conflict between the US and Iran has led to a volatile oil market, with drivers ultimately being hit by higher fuel prices at the pumps.

On Tuesday, along with the drop in Brent crude, US West Texas Intermediate prices were down more than 5%, to $76 a barrel. Both contracts dropped to their lowest levels since 13 July.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been progress made in discussions on getting more ships through the Strait with Iran and Oman.

“There’s been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet. We’re hoping that will happen very shortly,” he told reporters at the State Department.

Bessent said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be agreed as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

There was a “chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict,” he told CNBC.

“It would be freedom of movement,” he added, when asked whether Iran would be allowed to charge for ships passing through.

While senior figures in the US government have announced talks have been progressing, no details of what a potential deal may look like have been released.

The Strait of Hormuz has been a central point in negotiations between the US and Iran. Before the conflict began in late February, the waterway handled about one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

The disruption has sent prices at the pumps up across the world. In the UK petrol prices are now at levels seen at the start of the conflict, with the average cost of a litre of petrol hitting £1.60, according to the RAC motoring group.

In the US, gasoline prices are on average above $4 a gallon, according to the AAA. Diesel is almost $5.40 a gallon.

Qatar, which is one of the key mediators between Washington and Tehran, said it was continuing efforts with other mediators to try to achieve a diplomatic resolution to the war, but admitted no direct talks were currently planned.

On Monday, President Donald Trump warned Iran faced its “last chance” to agree a deal to allow commercial shipping to resume in the Strait.

He said he had called off “massive” strikes on the country for talks to resume.

But Iran has said it was not negotiating with the US – and had no plans to do so – and is instead talking to Oman.

US stock markets were trading higher on Tuesday following news of the negotiations lowering oil prices and also in response to corporate results related to Artificial Intelligence.

Investors have experienced jitters on Wall Street as results from Big Tech firms indicate spending on the technology is set to continue to soar.

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BP posts 143% profit hike as Iran war sends oil and gas prices skyward

British oil giant BP posted second quarter profit on Tuesday of $5.7 billion, more than double the $2.35 billion it made in the April to June period in 2025, amid sharply higher oil and gas prices caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict. File photo by Neil Hall/EPA

Aug. 4 (UPI) — British oil giant BP posted second-quarter profit on Tuesday of $5.7 billion, more than double the $2.35 billion it made in the April to June period in 2025, amid sharply higher oil and gas prices caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Profit was $2.5 billion more than what the company made in the first quarter, the first two months of which were before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and easily beat the $5 billion expected by analysts.

BP’s results, the latest of the oil giants to report bumper profits in recent days following on from Shell, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump accused energy firms of exploiting the current shortage of supply.

“Based on a shortage, they’re making too much money,” he said Monday after Exxon Mobil and Chevron last week reported a combined $26.5 billion profit for the second quarter.

Trump demanded the companies return some of their windfall to the public by cutting their retail prices, saying profits that had jumped as much as 12-fold were not acceptable and that he was not happy about it.

On Friday, Shell, the other British supermajor, also posted results showing it more than doubled its earnings, reporting a $9.84 billion profit for the April to June period, up from $4.26 billion in the same period last year.

Environmental groups criticized the profit made by BP as unseemly.

“Clearly not everyone is feeling the pain of the energy crisis. While BP banks another round of enormous profits, millions of households are paying the price through sky-high energy bills and a climate crisis accelerating rapidly out of control with increasingly severe heatwaves, wildfires and droughts,” said Friends of the Earth campaigns head Rosie Downes.

BP CEO Meg O’Neill told CNBC on Tuesday that while she understood the pressure ordinary consumers felt when they were confronted by the prices at the pump, the company had little control over the cost.

“The reality is we produce a global commodity and the prices for the product we sell hangs off that global commodity price, said O’Neill, who stressed that the sterling financial results were due to strong performances across all its businesses,” she said.

She added that the company had tweaked the firm’s refining runs to ensure the products consumers needed most at any given point in time were available in sufficient quantities but insisted BP was “there was more to do.”

“We are not making the most of our potential. Our performance over the past few years has not met our own expectations, let alone those of our shareholders. We have not delivered consistently; we have written off too much value; and our costs and liabilities are not resilient enough in a low price environment,” said O’Neill.

BP’s results came four days after it put its North Sea oil business on the market amid uncertainty over whether the British government will forge ahead with phasing out North Sea oil and gas, in line with its Net Zero by 2050 target, or issue some new drilling licences to meet U.K. demand in the interim.

O’Neill said Tuesday that in a conversation with Prime Minister Andy Burnham he had assured her that he would take a “pragmatic” approach to the issue.

“The U.K. is still using a huge amount of oil and natural gas every single day, and we ought to be using our domestic resources first instead of buying those resources from a third party,” O’Neill added.

Analysts estimate BP’s 24 fields, about half of which are still producing, should fetch around $2.6 billion.

There are estimated to be at least 12 billion barrels of oil left under the North Sea, although developed reserves awaiting to be pumped are much lower.

Martin Luther King Jr. delivers his famed “I Have a Dream” speech from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington on August 28, 1963. The speech galvanized the nation’s civil rights movements and led to the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, the 1965 Voting Rights Act and the 1968 Fair Housing Act. File photo by UPI | License Photo

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BP profit highest since 2022 as Iran war pushes up oil price

Despite the big rise in profits, BP chief executive Meg O’Neill said the company was not reaching its full potential.

BP, which employs nearly 14,000 people in the UK, confirmed plans to move further away from clean energy, revealing plans to sell off its US renewable natural gas business Archaea.

O’Neill said this was part of her plan to prioritise “value, not sentiment or history”.

“We have to focus on the assets with the strongest potential to deliver competitive returns and long-term value,” she said.

Last week, BP announced it was putting its North Sea business up for sale in a move that would end 60 years of production in the region by the company.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said the sell-offs intended to make the business more streamlined.

“O’Neill will be aware she cannot rely on oil and gas prices remaining this high indefinitely,” he said.

“She needs to make sure it can prosper even when the backdrop is less helpful.”

The bumper profits reported by oil companies have led to an angry response from campaign groups.

Angharad Hopkinson, from environmental group Greenpeace, said BP’s results showed that “corporate gains have become entirely divorced from the public good”.

She said “the one point on which we agree with BP” is its decision to sell off its North Sea operations.

“Prolonging this parasitic relationship by trying to squeeze the last few drops of expensive oil out of the North Sea is sheer folly,” Hopkinson said.

Simon Francis, co-ordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said oil firms “have banked more billions from a crisis that has created real hardship for millions of households”.

“The lesson is not to hand yet more tax breaks to an industry posting billions in profit every quarter, but to use Windfall Tax receipts to clear the record energy debt households built up during the crisis,” he said.

Energy firms operating in the UK are subject to a windfall tax – called the Energy Profits Levy – that was introduced in 2022.

However, the tax only applies to profits made from extracting oil and gas in the UK.

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Oil rebounds as markets trade mixed following Wall Street rally

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In addition to earnings reports this week, investors were also still weighing the impact from last week’s joint US-Japan currency intervention, analysts said.


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Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped 0.3% to 63,585.58, as the US dollar inched up to 157.51 Japanese yen from 157.18 yen. The euro cost $1.1511, little changed from $1.1514. The dollar was trading at 160-yen levels before regulators stepped in to boost the yen’s value after it fell to nearly 40-year lows.

Some analysts said the effectiveness of such an intervention remains uncertain as it doesn’t address the fundamental economic reasons behind the currency fluctuations, including inflation, interest rates and the relative strengths of the economies.

“A US-backed operation carries far more signaling weight than Tokyo acting alone, and the pledge of further action will give speculators pause. But any US contribution will probably be constrained by size,” a report by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said.

Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, noted the latest effort could have some impact because it appears to signal a real change in monetary policy rather than just a one-time defensive move.

“This is an historic and meaningful development for the yen, which materially improves confidence in our mildly bullish call for the currency,” he said.

Markets unsettled

South Korea’s Kospi sank 1.3% to 6,174.72. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 1.2% to 9,129.00. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.5% to 25,881.99, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.2% to 3,802.61.

Markets remain unsettled by swings for stocks of companies that make computer chips. They’ve been veering up and down for weeks on worries about whether their surging revenues because of the artificial-intelligence boom are sustainable.

Dow hits all-time high

On Wall Street, share prices rallied Monday after easing oil prices helped calm worries over inflation. The S&P 500 jumped 1.5% and is just 0.1% below its record set earlier this summer.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which measures a narrower slice of the US stock market, climbed 693 points or 1.3% to an all-time high, while the Nasdaq composite leaped 2.1%.

Oil prices rebound

In energy trading in Asia early Tuesday, benchmark US crude gained 84 cents to $81.18 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, jumped $1.15 to $84.92 a barrel.

A day earlier, oil prices dropped more than 5% after US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he had decided to hold off on new strikes against Iran at the urging of allies in the region.

Brent’s price careened between $72 and $102 last month as worries rose and fell over the war in Iran and when oil tankers would be allowed to freely exit the Persian Gulf again to deliver crude to customers worldwide.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury sank to 4.68% from 4.75% late Friday. It remains well above its 3.97% level from before the war with Iran.

Additional sources • AP

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Petrol prices strain US households as oil giants Chevron, Exxon profits soar | Oil and Gas News

United States President Donald Trump has lambasted the nation’s biggest oil and gas giants as Houston, Texas-based Chevron reported record earnings while consumers struggle with soaring petrol prices.

“I don’t like it,” Trump told reporters on Monday in reference to the blockbuster second-quarter earnings, as his war on Iran has kept oil prices high for months.

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“Chevron, too much money. ExxonMobil, too much. Too much money.”

Trump’s comments came on the heels of an interview Chevron CEO Mike Wirth gave on the Fox News programme Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo. Writing on his Truth Social platform, the US president berated Wirth for not crediting his administration’s efforts to help the oil industry.

“The only thing he [Wirth] conveniently forgot to mention is that, without the genius, foresight, strength, and stability of the TRUMP Administration, the Oil Industry, and our Country itself, would be DEAD!”

Chevron reported its highest quarterly profits in six years on Friday. Adjusted earnings per share came to $6.06, or $12bn, as tensions between the US and Iran strained global oil supply chains in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, where roughly one-fifth of the world’s energy supply travelled through before the war, sending prices soaring.

Chevron rewarded its employees. Wirth praised them for their work and said in an email that most workers would receive a bonus equivalent to half their monthly base pay, the Reuters news agency reported, citing an internal email.

Al Jazeera has not been able to independently confirm Reuters’ reporting.

Chevron’s strong earnings come as the company is less reliant on Middle Eastern production operations than its competitors, allowing it to reap the benefits of higher global oil prices during the quarter. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, was 23 percent higher than in the first three months of the year.

“Being less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz is definitely helping them. It’s also the refining they’re able to do here. The fact that Chevron has less than 5 percent exposure there gives it some protection,” Bill Drolet, executive director, mergers & acquisitions at The Post Oak Group investment bank, told Al Jazeera.

“More than 70 percent of Chevron’s production is concentrated in America, and that’s where it’s making its biggest margins right now.”

Chevron also benefitted from the president’s move to open up oil production in Venezuela after US special forces abducted the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, in January. Chevron had stayed on in the South American nation even after former President Hugo Chavez nationalised oil production.

Chevron did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

Competitors also performed well. ExxonMobil on Friday posted its best quarterly profits in four years, but they fell short of analysts’ expectations. Earnings raked in $9.2bn.

Exxon did not respond to a request for comment.

On Thursday, Valero Energy reported its highest ever second-quarter profit, with net income coming in at $3.7bn as US refiners reap the benefits of tensions choking oil production across the Middle East.

But those benefits have not reached consumers, who are feeling the strain at the petrol pump. Petrol prices are above $4 a gallon (3.78 litres) across the US. The average price for a gallon of petrol is $4.09, down from $4.11 this time last week, but up from $3.82 a month ago, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices.

By comparison, when the US and Israel first struck Iran in late February, the average price was $2.98.

An analysis from Bank of America published in April showed consumers spending as much as 4.2 percent of their income on petrol in March, up from 3.9 percent in 2019. Lower-income earners are hit much harder, with more than 10 percent of households spending more than 10 percent of their monthly income on petrol.

This comes as pressure on the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues. The reserves hit their lowest level since 1983 this week, according to the Department of Energy. They fell by 2.8 million barrels over the week to 304.8 million barrels.

Political pushback

The condemnation of the oil industry has come from across the political spectrum.

“A decent industry would say, ‘this was money we didn’t earn, it’s a windfall we get from our cartel pricing scheme.’ Not these corrupt, greedy and grasping rogues,” Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island wrote in a post on X on Sunday.

But lowering prices might not be as easy. Beyond pressure from consumers, companies across the corporate United States are beholden to a concept called shareholder supremacy. This means that while lowering prices might be in the best interest of pinched consumers, it may not be possible given the legal framework and companies’ fiduciary responsibility to shareholders.

“They’ve [oil companies] got shareholders they’re responsible for. They could reduce share buybacks or dividend payouts, but right now, I don’t see oil companies doing much,” Post Oak Group’s Drolet said.

He said if he were advising a member of Congress or the president, providing relief to consumers might be easiest by suspending the so-called gas tax, which varies by state. In Texas, for example, the gas tax accounts for 20 cents per gallon, while in California, it is 63 cents per gallon.

“From a political standpoint, the best thing our government can do is suspend gas taxes, especially in California. If they put a temporary hold on taxes, that would help everybody get through this challenging time.”

Al Jazeera asked the White House if that policy is on the table, but the press office did not respond.

Heading into the US midterm elections, cost of living remains among the highest concerns for consumers. In a Washington Post/Ipsos poll last month, 54 percent of respondents said that high prices and the economy were a chief concern heading into November.

“They see the price of fuel and net profit for Exxon and Chevron and feel that they are abusing US consumers, especially as US consumers have access to the correct fuel, whereas other areas around the world have shortages [such as Germany, Philippines],” Babak Hafezi, professor of international business at American University, told Al Jazeera.

“The reality is that as the war [On Iran] progresses, the impacts of the lack of supply will create full price and supply shocks.”

Amid Trump’s comments, Chevron’s stock is on the downturn in midday trading, tumbling more than 2 percent from the market open. However, it is up more than 1.1 percent over the last five days.

ExxonMobil is down 0.5 percent for the day and 0.1 percent over the last five days.

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Oil prices lower on Middle East hopes and as OPEC+ boosts production

The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil for October delivery lost 5.16% to $83.39 a barrel, while US crude, or WTI, futures for September delivery declined nearly 6% to $79.66 per barrel.


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Crude declined after US President Donald Trump said fresh talks with Iran would begin later in the day, easing concerns over potential supply disruptions. Additional downward pressure came after Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other key members of OPEC+ agreed in an online meeting on Sunday to boost oil production by 188,000 barrels a day from September, against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Middle East conflict.

“The seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day,” they said in a joint statement.

The increase, decided by the key countries in the enlarged Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, was widely expected by analysts.

“OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts. The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalise,” Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, said.

He warned, however, that the decision “changes little in the near term because (the Strait of) Hormuz remains constrained. The real market impact will come when normal export flows resume.”

The Gulf countries have struggled to increase exports due to the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz orchestrated by Iran during the war in the Middle East – despite a brief upswing in shipping traffic after a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed in June.

Many OPEC+ members cannot produce as much oil as their official targets allow due to a “decline in production capacity”, so increasing targets has become less meaningful, Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said.

Future pause foreseen

The September increase, agreed by OPEC+ countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, completes the unwinding of the second of the three production-cut packages introduced by organisation.

“Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes. Our base case is a fourth-quarter pause while the group prepares for the 2027 quota negotiations,” Rystad Energy’s Leon said.

“For now, geopolitics is masking the scale of the supply increase. That will become much clearer once export flows normalise,” he added.

It remains unclear when the group will actually be able to increase its oil volumes. Some member countries, such as Iraq, have expressed a desire to significantly boost production.

Russia, though, is confronted with repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on its oil infrastructure that have crimped production, currently hovering around nine million barrels per day – compared with a target of 9.8 million barrels per day.

OPEC+ “faces potentially difficult talks over new production quotas” starting next year following the September increase, according to analysts at DNB Carnegie.

Between late 2022 and 2023, OPEC+ became concerned that oil prices were falling, and agreed to cut oil production in three separate rounds, reducing total output by nearly six million barrels per day.

But Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman and the United Arab Emirates – before the latter’s exit from the group on May 1 – then changed their strategy by gradually upping production starting in 2025.

“I don’t think cohesion is at risk at this very moment,” Leon said, warning, however, that the UAE’s withdrawal from the group in May has highlighted a weakness in this area.

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