oil

Brent crude rises more than 7 percent as Washington and Tehran offer conflicting accounts on ceasefire negotiations.

Oil prices have risen sharply following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting messages about the prospect of renewed negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude futures, the primary benchmark for global prices, jumped more than 7 percent in Asia on Monday as the outlook for peace between Washington and Tehran darkened.

Prices eased somewhat later in the morning, with the benchmark at $94.69 a barrel as of 02:05 GMT, up from just under $90.40 on Friday.

The latest price surge came after US President Donald Trump said US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel that had attempted to evade the US blockade of Iran’s ports.

Trump’s announcement followed reports by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre over the weekend that two vessels came under attack while transiting the strait.

Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker, while an “unknown projectile” struck a container ship, according to the UKMTO.

After declaring the strait “completely open” on Friday, Tehran reversed course less than 24 hours later, citing the ongoing US blockade.

Earlier on Sunday, Trump said that a US delegation would travel to Pakistan on Monday to hold a second round of ceasefire talks with Iranian officials.

Iranian state news outlet IRNA later reported that Tehran would not participate in the talks, citing the US blockade and Washington’s “excessive demands” and “unrealistic expectations”.

A two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is set to expire on Wednesday if the sides cannot agree on an extension.

An initial round of talks held in Islamabad earlier this month broke down without any agreement between the sides.

Iran’s effective closure of the strait, which usually carries about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies, has driven a surge in fuel prices worldwide, forcing governments to tap emergency supplies and roll out energy-saving measures.

Nineteen vessels crossed the strait on Saturday, up from 10 the previous day, but far below the historical average of 138 daily transits, according to the UKMTO.

Asia’s main stock markets opened higher on Monday despite the dimming prospects of de-escalation.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 1 percent in morning trading, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained about 1.3 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose about 0.5 percent, while the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai gained more than 0.4 percent.

Brent crude falls more than 9 percent after Iran said it will reopen the strategic waterway, only to shut it down again over US blockade of its ports.

Oil prices have plummeted to their lowest point in weeks after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open for passage during a ceasefire in Lebanon, and United States President Donald Trump said he expected to ⁠reach a deal to end the war soon.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell more than 9 percent to $90.38 a barrel on Friday, taking it below $91 for the first time since March 10.

The plunge came after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait was “completely open” and would remain so for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which took effect on Friday.

Hailing Tehran’s announcement, Trump declared the waterway “ready for business and full passage,” but said the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports would remain in “full force” until the sides reached a peace deal.

On Saturday, however, Iran rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the key waterway as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.

The announcement came after Trump said the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the US, including on its nuclear programme.

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz and further limits would squeeze already constrained supply, driving prices higher once again.

Amid the escalation, Pakistani officials say they are trying for more talks between the US and Iran ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline.

Meanwhile, ship tracking data displayed by MarineTraffic earlier on Saturday showed a significant uptick in vessels crossing the strait, which is located between Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

“It’s busy out there, the busiest I’ve seen it since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed at the beginning of the war,” Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at maritime intelligence firm Windward, said in a post on X.

“Last night there were few ships taking the risk but overnight there seems to have been a change.”

While Iran allowed a limited number of vetted ships to transit the waterway since the start of the war, traffic has remained at a trickle compared with pre-conflict levels.

The near-total closure of the strait has triggered one of the worst energy shocks in history, driving up fuel prices and prompting governments to roll out emergency measures.

Oil prices have swung wildly since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, hitting a post-conflict peak of $119 a barrel on March 19.

April 16 (Asia Today) — South Korea will begin receiving 27 million barrels of alternative crude oil in June, part of a broader effort to stabilize energy supplies and diversify import sources amid disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said the shipments are part of crude secured by a presidential envoy team, with additional policy measures being introduced to support refiners facing supply uncertainty.

A senior ministry official said the envoy team secured about 223 million barrels of alternative crude, excluding 50 million barrels previously allocated from Saudi Arabia. Of that, 27 million barrels are scheduled for shipment beginning in June.

The earlier 50 million barrels are expected to be shipped in April and May through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with confirmation from Saudi Aramco that deliveries will proceed as planned, the ministry said.

South Korean refiners had faced disruptions despite existing contracts, as shipments were affected by instability and constraints linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route.

The envoy delegation has secured a total of about 273 million barrels of crude from countries including Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia. Of that, roughly 250 million barrels from Saudi Arabia – which accounts for about one-third of South Korea’s crude imports – are expected to be delivered by the end of the year.

Officials said the government has already secured about 118 million barrels for April and May combined, indicating no immediate risk to domestic supply. Remaining volumes are expected to be shipped sequentially through the end of the year.

In parallel, the government is introducing measures to help refiners diversify import sources. For crude imported between April and June, authorities will ease requirements for refunds of the petroleum import levy and temporarily expand refund limits.

The ministry said it simplified freight cost calculations using an international benchmark index and removed restrictions on shipment volume, duration and frequency. It also temporarily lifted caps on freight cost compensation for diversified imports to expand financial support.

The program is backed by about 127.5 billion won (approximately $95 million) in funding, based on estimated demand from domestic refiners.

Officials said broader reforms may be considered if the situation persists.

The ministry also pushed back against claims that fuel consumption has increased following the introduction of a price cap. Data showed that weekly gasoline and diesel sales fell in five of seven weeks from late February to mid-April compared to the same period last year.

From mid-March to mid-April, after the price cap took effect, total fuel sales declined 12.4% year-over-year, the ministry said, urging observers to focus on overall trends rather than short-term fluctuations.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260416010005112

President Lee Jae Myung on Friday shared a news report that a South Korean oil tanker exited the Red Sea, marking the first shipment of crude oil to the nation since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier in the day, the nation’s fisheries ministry reported that the tanker carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia exited the Red Sea, as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed amid the prolonged war in the Middle East.

“It is good news that our vessel is transporting crude oil via the Red Sea for the first time since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,” Lee wrote in his social media post.

He described the safe passage as a “valuable achievement” made possible through close coordination among relevant ministries and the dedication of seafarers under difficult circumstances.

“The government is mobilizing all available resources to address the crisis stemming from the war in the Middle East,” Lee said, pledging to safeguard people’s livelihoods and national interests.

South Korea has been exploring ways to ship crude oil via the Red Sea, an alternative route, as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, has been effectively closed amid the Middle East conflict.

Copyright (c) Yonhap News Agency prohibits its content from being redistributed or reprinted without consent, and forbids the content from being learned and used by artificial intelligence systems.

The benchmark US equity indices surged to new territory entering price discovery, reflecting a market that appears to be looking past immediate geopolitical risks in favour of potential de-escalation and corporate strength.

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On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed 0.8% higher at 7,022 points, up on the day and surpassing its previous peak from January of this year.

The S&P 500 is now 11% higher since it bottomed on 30 March and after it first dropped 9% during last month.

The Nasdaq Composite also posted a record, rising 1.6% to over 24,000 points while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.15% lower and continues significantly below its all-time high.

The advance comes despite persistent headwinds.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply, has been severely disrupted since late February following Iranian actions and a subsequent US naval blockade.

Traffic has dropped sharply, with Iran declaring the strait closed to vessels linked to the US, Israel and their allies.

The US Central Command also confirmed its blockade of Iranian ports took full effect earlier this week, stating that “ten vessels have now been turned around and ZERO ships have broken through since the start of the US blockade on Monday”.

Oil prices, while easing in the last two weeks, remain elevated.

At the time of writing, Brent crude stands at around $96.5 per barrel and WTI at $92.5, still well above pre-war levels and contributing to inflationary concerns.

The International Monetary Fund has responded by lowering its global growth outlook. In its latest World Economic Outlook, released on Monday, the IMF cut the 2026 forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% previously projected, citing energy price spikes and supply disruptions.

Headline inflation is now seen at 4.4% for the year, under a reference scenario assuming a short-lived conflict, with risks of even weaker growth and higher prices if tensions escalate and prolong.

The modest decline in energy prices followed reports that the two-week ceasefire is holding and that fresh talks between the US and Iran could resume soon.

US President Donald Trump also indicated that negotiations for lasting peace might restart by the end of the week.

Investors appear to be pricing in an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a contained negative impact of the war in general.

Speaking to Euronews, Alan McIntosh, chief investment officer of Quilter Cheviot Europe, explained that “although the first round of talks led to no agreement, a likely extension of the ceasefire gives optimism that an early resolution can be reached”.

“Assuming a fairly swift end to hostilities and a resumption of oil shipments, the economic damage to global inflation and growth should be fairly limited,” he added.

Why US indices defy the odds

Analysts point to several factors behind the market resilience.

Hopes of a swift end to hostilities have encouraged risk-taking, while corporate America is showing strength. Bank executives highlighted a strong US consumer and a healthy pipeline for deals and initial public offerings.

Earnings expectations for the first quarter have been revised higher, with S&P 500 companies now forecast to report combined profits of over $605 billion (€513bn), up from earlier estimates.

Tech shares, particularly those linked to AI, provided additional support. The Nasdaq’s outsized gain reflected renewed enthusiasm for growth-oriented stocks even as broader economic projections softened.

McIntosh told Euronews that “the capital spending boost relating to AI shows no sign of slowing down so this continues to support US economic growth. We have just started the US quarterly results season and so far there is limited evidence of a negative impact from the current Middle East conflict”.

The indices also include defence companies that have all performed well with the war in the backdrop pushing governments, in particular the US, to increase military budgets.

History also offers context for the current rebound. In past US-involved wars, equity markets have frequently experienced short-term volatility followed by recovery and gains.

During the 2003 Iraq War, for example, the S&P 500 rose over 25% in the first full year after the invasion began.

The Gulf War of 1990-1991 saw an initial 11% decline in the index, but a strong relief rally followed the swift coalition victory, delivering positive returns in the subsequent year.

Similar patterns emerged in the Korean War and Vietnam War eras, where stocks posted solid long-term advances despite prolonged uncertainty.

Data compiled by the Royal Bank of Canada and other sources indicate that, across multiple conflicts, equities rose in the first year of hostilities around 60% of the time.

Markets have tended to focus on eventual outcomes rather than immediate shocks, rewarding resolution and economic adaptability. The latest record for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq underscore this enduring pattern.

While risks remain if the Iran conflict worsens, investors are currently betting that diplomacy and corporate fundamentals will prevail.

Despite Beijing’s rising anger over the war in Iran, a country upon which it relies heavily for oil, U.S. President Donald Trump insisted his relationship with his Chinese counterpart remains strong. However, in a post on his social media network, Trump also dismissed Chinese concerns that its energy situation is becoming more precarious as the result of strangulation of the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

All this comes as Trump has been telling media outlets that he believes the war could soon end. We’ll talk more about that later in this story.

“China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz,” the American leader proclaimed on Truth Social, even as the flow of oil from the Middle East has been drastically reduced by the war. “I am doing it for them, also – And the World. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran.”

“President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks,” he added. “We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn’t that beat fighting??? BUT REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to – far better than anyone else!!!”

In a pre-taped interview that aired Wednesday morning, Trump told Fox News that the war hasn’t soured his relationship with Xi, who has expressed frustration with American actions in the Middle East.

“I don’t think it does,” Trump told Fox News host Maria Bartiromo. “He’s somebody that needs oil. We don’t. He’s somebody I get along with very well. He just wrote me a beautiful letter…He responded to a letter that I wrote because I had heard that China is giving weapons to – I mean, you’re seeing it all over the place – to Iran…I wrote him a letter asking him not to do that, and he wrote me a letter saying that essentially he’s not doing that.”

Trump:

I wrote a letter to Xi. I asked him not to give Iran weapons. He wrote me a letter, and he is saying that he is essentially not doing that. pic.twitter.com/yrTT9Dwi2V

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 15, 2026

Trump was referring to reports that U.S. intelligence determined Beijing was providing military support to Tehran.

Before his Truth Social Post and the Fox interview aired, Financial Times reported that Iran “secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war.”

“Leaked Iranian military documents show the satellite, known as TEE-01B, was acquired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force in late 2024 after it was launched into space from China,” according to the outlet. “Time-stamped coordinate lists, satellite imagery and orbital analysis show that Iranian military commanders later tasked the satellite to monitor key US military sites. The images were taken in March before and after drone and missile strikes on those locations.”

As we have previously reported, Iranian strikes on U.S. military facilities killed U.S. troops and caused damage to bases and equipment. However, it should be noted that Iran has also beenreceiving Chinese commercial satellite imagery and Russia is likely providing it as well. At the same time, U.S. commercial satellite companies like VANTOR and Planet Labs are now refraining from sharing imageryof the Middle East and elsewhere at the Pentagon’s behest.

Meanwhile, China continues to push back against accusations that it is helping Iran and repeated previous assertions that it will respond should Trump go through with his threat to impose a 50% tariff.

“Media reports accusing China of providing military support to Iran are purely fabricated,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stated on X. “If the U.S. goes ahead with tariff hikes on China on the basis of these accusations, China will respond with countermeasures.”

Lin did not offer details about those countermeasures.

Media reports accusing China of providing military support to Iran are purely fabricated.

If the U.S. goes ahead with tariff hikes on China on the basis of these accusations, China will respond with countermeasures. pic.twitter.com/QwETjpJEyY

— Lin Jian 林剑 (@SpoxCHN_LinJian) April 15, 2026

Regardless, Iran’s use of commercial space imagery to strike U.S. and allied targets “will force the Pentagon to adjust, the head of U.S. Space Command said,” according to Defense One.

“We have to recognize that the rest of the world can now see the entire planet transparently and almost 24/7 and so we have to be able to operate in that environment successfully,” Gen. Stephen Whiting, the head of U.S. Space Command told reporters Tuesday during the Space Symposium conference.

UPDATES

UPDATE: 2:24 PM EDT –

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt denied the U.S. requested an extention to the ceasefire.

‘I saw some reporting that we had formally requested an extension of this ceasefire. That is not true. We remain engaged in these negotiations.’

Karoline Leavitt tells reporters that the next round of Iran talks ‘will likely be held in Islamabad’https://t.co/3n6o5i1euG pic.twitter.com/jNf6a3h9xU

— Sky News (@SkyNews) April 15, 2026

She also thanked Pakistan for its help in the negotiations.

PRESS SEC on U.S.-Iran negotiations: The Pakistanis have been incredible mediators and we really appreciate their friendship and efforts to bring this deal to a close. 

The President feels it’s important to continue to streamline this communication through the Pakistanis. pic.twitter.com/3iIeF0oUpn

— Department of State (@StateDept) April 15, 2026

Trump, as we noted earlier, is saying that he believes the war could soon be concluded.

“I think it’s close to over,” Trump posited. “I mean, I view it as very close to over. You know what? If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country. And we’re not finished. We’ll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly.”

Trump also told Sky News that the end of the war may be nigh.

When asked by Sky whether a deal could happen before King Charles visits the U.S. at the end of the month, Trump said: “It’s possible. Very possible. They’re beaten up pretty bad.”

U.S. and Iranian negotiators made progress in talks on Tuesday, moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war, two U.S. officials said, Axios reported on Wednesday.

“U.S. officials and sources familiar with the mediation cautioned that a deal is not guaranteed, given the substantial differences between the two sides,” the news outlet noted.

“Let’s wait and see if we can get a deal. We are hopeful and accordingly trying to push with both sides,” a Pakistani official told Axios.

“U.S. officials and sources familiar with the mediation cautioned that a deal is not guaranteed, given the substantial differences between the two sides.”

“We want to make a deal. And parts of their government want to make a deal. Now the trick is to get the whole of government…

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) April 15, 2026

In another step toward potential future negotiations, Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir arrived in Tehran today for talks.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said that during the visit, “the views of both sides are likely to be discussed in detail.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, confirms that a high-ranking Pakistani delegation will visit Tehran today to follow up on talks with the U.S. in Islamabad. “During this visit, the views of both sides are likely to be discussed in detail,” Baghaei said. pic.twitter.com/bdMnyCKUA5

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) April 15, 2026

Baghaei, however, said Iran would not capitulate.

“If a negotiation is based on one side imposing conditions on the other, that is not negotiation; it is dictation and imposition, and you know that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Iranian nation will never accept such imposition,” he stated.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson:

If a negotiation is based on one side imposing conditions on the other, that is not negotiation; it is dictation and imposition, and you know that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Iranian nation will never accept such imposition. pic.twitter.com/lnKeJT9Pow

— Iran News 24 (@IRanMediaco) April 15, 2026

In an X post, CENTCOM on Wednesday said that during “the first 48 hours of the U.S. blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels have made it past U.S. forces. Additionally, 9 vessels have complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around and return toward an Iranian port or coastal area.”

During the first 48 hours of the U.S. blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels have made it past U.S. forces. Additionally, 9 vessels have complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around and return toward an Iranian port or coastal area. pic.twitter.com/h4msgvaPTl

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 15, 2026

Late Tuesday night, Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, took to X to announce that the “blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented as U.S. forces maintain maritime superiority in the Middle East.”

“An estimated 90% of Iran’s economy is fueled by international trade by sea,” Cooper noted. “In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.”

Senior IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi claimed the Islamic Republic would consider it a prelude to the breach of the ceasefire if “the aggressive and terrorist America” continues the blockade.

Abdollahi “threatened that the powerful Iranian armed forces would not allow any export and import to keep going in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea region, in the face of the US maritime aggression,” the official Iranian IRNA news agency stated on Wednesday.

His comments suggested that the Houthi rebels of Yemen, an Iranian proxy, could resume their attacks on Red Sea shipping, something we previously examined as a possibility.

BREAKING: Commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters:

We will not allow any export or import activity in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman if the American blockade continues.

Our armed forces will not allow trade to flow through the Red Sea if the naval blockade continues.…

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 15, 2026

Meanwhile, the Malta-flagged VLCC Agios Fanourios I became the first crude carrier to head west through the Strait of Hormuz since the US blockade on Iran’s ports came into force, according to MarineTraffic.

First crude carrier heads west through Strait of Hormuz since the US blockade

The Malta-flagged VLCC Agios Fanourios I has become the first crude carrier to head west through the Strait of Hormuz since the US blockade on Iran’s ports came into force. According to #MarineTraffic… pic.twitter.com/K8syfSZtFL

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) April 15, 2026

Though another round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran is being discussed, the Pentagon continues to pour resources into the Middle East, something we have been reporting about for weeks.

“The forces moving into the region include about 6,000 troops aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and several warships escorting it, said current and former officials,” according to The Washington Post, citing anonymous officials. “About 4,200 others with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Corps task force, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, are expected to arrive near the end of the month.”

During the pause in fighting, Iran appears to be using the time to reopen entrances to underground missile cities damaged during the war, according to CNN. The network published footage showing engineering equipment at the Tabriz South missile base and the Khomein missile bases. 

The network also noted that, according to U.S. intelligence estimates, about half of the Iranian missile launchers remained intact after a month of fighting, and that many of these launchers could have been buried in underground storage facilities as a result of strikes on the entrances.

CNN published footage showing engineering equipment making use of the ceasefire to reopen the entrances to underground facilities at missile bases that were damaged during the war.

The sites documented include the Tabriz South missile base and the Khomein missile base.

Notably,… pic.twitter.com/B88HISqVYD

— Ben Tzion Macales (@BenTzionMacales) April 15, 2026

A day after negotiations took place in Washington between the U.S., Israel and Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a veiled threat to Beirut. Considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Israel, Hezbollah was not a party to the talks.

“The Lebanese authorities must reconsider their actions and return to the embrace of the people,” said Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah in a statement. “The authorities withdrew the army from the south, leaving it vulnerable to occupation and giving the enemy [Israel] free rein.”

Meanwhile, Israel is continuing to bombard Hezbollah.

“In the past 24 hours, the IDF struck over 200 Hezbollah terror infrastructure sites in southern Lebanon,” it claimed. “Among the targets struck: terrorists, military structures, approximately 20 launchers, including those recently used to fire towards the State of Israel.”

ביממה האחרונה הותקפו יותר מ-200 מטרות של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה בדרום לבנון. בין התשתיות שהותקפו: מחבלים, מבנים צבאיים וכ-20 משגרים, בהם משגרים ששיגרו לעבר שטח הארץ והושמדו בסגירות מעגל מהירות. pic.twitter.com/LeR2mr37Vv

— Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) April 15, 2026

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

European stocks were mostly steady on Wednesday as investors weighed signals from Washington that a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran war could be imminent.

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The pan-European Stoxx 600 had ticked down 0.1%, Germany’s Dax edged 0.11% higher and the FTSE 100 climbed 0.11%. The CAC 40 in France fell by a slightly greater margin, at 0.65%.

US President Donald Trump said fresh talks between Washington and Tehran “could be happening over the next two days” in Islamabad, signalling a possible diplomatic breakthrough, and added that the war was “very close to over” — despite continued uncertainty over key sticking points in negotiations.

Asian markets were broadly higher.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.0% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.7%.

The Shanghai Composite added 0.2%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed, up less than 0.1%.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 added 1.2% to its gains from the previous day, and the index at the heart of many 401(k) accounts is now just 0.2% below its record set in January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2%.

On Wednesday, benchmark US crude inched up by 1 cent to $91.29 a barrel.

Brent crude added 48 cents to $95.27, or less than 1%, after falling 4.6% the previous day. While that is still above its roughly $70 level from before the war began in late February, it remains well below the peak of $119.

Lower oil prices help reduce costs for businesses across the economy. However, some analysts noted that the war is still ongoing, warning that the optimism may prove unfounded.

“The counterintuitive decline in crude appears driven by growing hopes that a second round of peace talks between Washington and Tehran could soon materialise, after the first attempt fizzled out,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

“Traders are clearly choosing to price in the possibility of de-escalation rather than the immediate reality of restricted flows,” he added.

Asian nations depend on access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that is the main route for crude oil produced in the Persian Gulf to reach customers worldwide. Disruptions there have kept oil off the global market, driving up prices.

Global inflation this year is expected to accelerate to 4.4% from 4.1% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund, which had previously forecast a slowdown to 3.8%.

The IMF also downgraded its forecast for global economic growth to 3.1% this year, from 3.3% projected in January.

Overall, the S&P 500 rose 81.14 points to 6,967.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.74 points to 48,535.99, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 455.35 points to 23,639.08.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased as falling oil prices reduced inflationary pressure. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.30% late Monday.

In currency trading, the US dollar edged up to 159.03 Japanese yen from 158.79 yen. The euro stood at $1.1780, down from $1.1797.

US stocks climbed to the brink of a record high on Tuesday, while oil prices eased as hopes grew that Washington and Tehran may resume talks to end their war.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, leaving it just 0.2% below its January peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2%, tracking broader global market gains.

Investors are betting that renewed diplomacy could prevent a prolonged surge in oil prices and inflation, allowing focus to return to corporate earnings.

Brent crude for June delivery fell 4.6% to $94.79, down from recent highs, though still above pre-war levels.

However, volatility remains high, with markets sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply.

Caracas, April 13, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez inked new agreements with Chevron on Monday allowing the US energy giant to expand its presence in the country’s oil industry.

In a televised broadcast, Rodríguez, who was accompanied by officials from Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA and the Hydrocarbon Ministry, praised Chevron’s “commitment” to Venezuela.

“Chevron, with more than a century of presence in Venezuela, is an example of an oil company committed to Venezuela,” she said. “I salute this agreement as an example that there are legal pathways for investment to be assured and prosper.“

The Venezuelan acting president reiterated calls for the lifting of US sanctions against the Caribbean nation. US Chargé d’Affaires to Venezuela Laura Dogu was present at the ceremony and exchanged brief words with Rodríguez. US Assistant Energy Secretary Kyle Haustveit was also in attendance with a delegation from the US Energy Department.

The new contracts grant Petropiar, a joint venture with Chevron participation, the Ayacucho 8 bloc as the Houston-based conglomerate looks to expand its production of extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Oil Belt. PDVSA completed exploration and appraisal of the 500 square-kilometer bloc but development has been limited.

Chevron owns minority stakes in four joint projects with PDVSA that currently produce about a quarter of Venezuela’s oil output. The agreements with the Venezuelan government will also see Chevron increase its stake in Petroindependencia, another mixed venture with PDVSA, from 36 to 49 percent. In exchange, it will relinquish its stakes in the offshore Loran natural gas field.

For his part, Chevron executive Javier La Rosa, thanked the Venezuelan and US governments for their support and praised the “strengthening” of Chevron’s position in the Orinoco Oil Belt. “Chevron is determined to be a reliable partner and establish win-win relations,” he said.

The exploration of the 7.3 trillion cubic feet (tcf) Loran field, which is part of the Loran-Manatee joint deposit with Trinidad and Tobago, will reportedly be turned over to Shell. The UK-based multinational is also involved in several natural gas projects in Venezuelan waters and similar agreements with the Rodríguez administration are expected in the coming days.

In addition, Shell also closed a deal to take over the Carito and Pirital oilfields from PDVSA’s Punta de Mata division in eastern Monagas state. The projects produce light and medium crudes, as well as natural gas.

The new contracts were signed under the pro-business provisions established by a January overhaul of Venezuela’s Hydrocarbon Law. In a recent interview, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez stated that the reform incorporated “suggestions” from Western corporate giants, including Repsol.

The updated legislation grants private corporations expanded control over operations and sales, slashes royalties and income tax, and allows legal disputes to be settled in international arbitration bodies. The reform likewise allows PDVSA to lease out projects to private companies in exchange for a fixed share of the output.

Since the January 3 US bombings and kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration has exerted control over the Venezuelan oil industry, granting waivers to boost the involvement of Western conglomerates and mandating that royalty, tax, and dividend payments owed to Venezuela be made to US Treasury-run accounts. 

Financial sanctions against PDVSA, as well as threats of secondary sanctions against firms that do not receive Washington’s green light, remain in place. On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio vowed that the US “would not allow” geopolitical adversaries such as China, Iran, and Russia to have a significant presence in the Venezuelan oil industry.

“We don’t need Venezuela’s oil,” he said in an interview. “What we’re not going to allow is for the oil industry in Venezuela to be controlled by adversaries of the United States.”

Venezuelan crude production increased in March to 988,000 barrels per day (bpd), up from 909,000 bpd in February, according to OPEC secondary sources. The figure is the highest output since the imposition of a US export embargo in January 2019.

For its part, PDVSA reported 1.095 million bpd of production last month, with a 75,000 bpd increase compared to February. The direct and secondary measurements have differed over time due to disagreements over the inclusion of natural gas liquids and condensates. Venezuelan Oil Minister Paula Henao announced a 1.3 million bpd target for the end of 2026.

According to Reuters, Venezuelan oil exports surpassed 1 million bpd in March, driven by several shipments to India’s leading refiner, Reliance Industries, amid the US-Israeli war against Iran and the latter’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz that has disrupted global energy flows and sent crude prices upwards of $90 per barrel

However, Venezuelan authorities have offered no information about the US-controlled oil exports, including details regarding the transfer of proceeds to Caracas. The White House has confirmed the return of US $500 million to Caracas out of an initial deal estimated at $2 billion, while Venezuelan officials have reported the purchase of US-manufactured medicines and equipment using “unblocked” funds.

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Fusagasugá, Colombia.

Trading on Tuesday began with high expectations that the Iran war is inching to a close, fuelling gains across major stock markets and pushing oil back under $100 a barrel.

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Investors remained hopeful for a lasting de-escalation of the conflict, now in its seventh week, as the US and Iran are said to be weighing a second round of talks before a temporary ceasefire agreement expires next week.

The US military on Monday began a blockade of Iranian ports as Washington steps up pressure on Tehran, following weekend ceasefire talks between the two sides that ended without agreement.

Trump also suggested on Monday that the United States is still willing to engage with Tehran.

“I can tell you that we’ve been called by the other side,” he said, without elaborating further.

Oil prices continued to pull back on Tuesday from earlier gains.

Brent crude, the international standard, was down 0.8% at $98.62 per barrel, nearing 8 am CET.

It reached nearly $104 early on Monday amid Iran war concerns and limited progress in weekend ceasefire talks.

Benchmark US crude fell 1.7% early Tuesday to $97.40 a barrel.

The global energy shock stemming from maritime traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil is typically transported, has led to surging fuel prices and threatens to push up inflation in many countries and weigh on economic growth.

Stock markets are hungry for good news

Investors were quick to recover after the dismal first trading day on Monday. Asian markets were mostly up on Tuesday morning, tracking Wall Street gains.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 3% to 6,004.30.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 25,759.75, while the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.6% to 4,010.45.

This comes as China on Tuesday reported worse-than-expected export growth.

The world’s second-largest economy expanded its exports by 2.5% in March year on year, significantly slower than the previous two months as uncertainties rose from the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and global demand.

The March data missed analysts’ estimates and was sharply down from the 21.8% export growth recorded in January and February.

Wall Street rose on Monday. The S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.2%.

Shares in Goldman Sachs fell 1.9% despite the investment bank posting better-than-expected quarterly profits.

In other trading, gold and silver prices rose on Tuesday. Gold was up 0.6% at $4,796.60 (€4,219.62) an ounce, while silver gained 1.8% to $77.05 (€67.80) per ounce.

The US dollar fell to ¥159.08 from ¥159.45. The euro was trading at $1.1766, up from $1.1759.

Relief for global markets comes after Trump says Iranian officials are keen on a deal.

Asia’s main stock markets have surged, and oil prices have declined amid renewed hopes for ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran.

The relief for global markets on Tuesday came after US President Donald Trump said overnight that Iranian officials had reached out to his administration and expressed their openness to a deal.

“We’ve been called by the other side, and they would like to make a deal very badly,” Trump said in remarks at the White House.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose as much as 2.5 percent on Tuesday, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained about 3.7 percent.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed about 0.6 percent.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was up about 0.4 percent in the early afternoon, while the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai was about 0.5 percent higher.

The rally in Asia followed gains on Wall Street, with the benchmark S&P 500 finishing up 1 percent overnight.

Brent crude, the benchmark for global oil prices, dipped nearly 1.5 percent, falling below $98 a barrel.

The positive turn for markets came despite the US following through on its threat to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports, a move that analysts warn is likely to exacerbate the energy shortage that is roiling the global economy.

Brent had surged above $103 per barrel after Trump on Sunday threatened to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies.

The US military later clarified that the blockade would only apply to vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports, in an apparent scaling back of Trump’s threat to fully close the waterway.

Iran has effectively halted shipping through the strait since the start of the war on February 28, throwing the global energy market into a tailspin.

Only 21 vessels transited the strait on Sunday, according to maritime intelligence provider Windward, compared with roughly 130 daily transits before the start of the conflict.

Markets face a sobering Monday after weekend optimism over a peace talks breakthrough faded. Investors are bracing for a high-impact week shaped by geopolitics, inflation data and the start of earnings season.

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Oil prices resumed their climb, with international benchmark Brent crude and the US benchmark WTI trading above $100 a barrel. On Monday morning in Europe, Brent front-month futures were up 7%, trading at nearly $102 a barrel, while WTI gained nearly 8% and surged to $104.

This comes as the US military prepares to blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, where much of the shipping has been disrupted by Iran since the start of the war.

US President Donald Trump announced the planned blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without agreement. The military said the blockade covering all Iranian ports would begin Monday at 10 am CET (5:30 pm local time in Iran).

Oil prices have been climbing as shipping through the Strait has essentially stalled since late February. Brent crude has risen from roughly $70 a barrel before the war to more than $119 at times.

“Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning,” a Deutsche Bank Research analysts said in a note, adding that “the mood has shifted negatively once again.

“Oil prices have revived fears of a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground globally.

Hungarian election and the forint

The Hungarian forint took the spotlight in currency trading after Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party won a landslide election, ending the 16-year rule of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.

The euro was trading at 366.18 forints before European markets opened on Monday, a sharp drop from 377.56 late Sunday. The Hungarian stock index rose 2.85% on Monday morning, bucking the negative sentiment weighing on markets across the bloc.

Investors see Magyar’s Tisza Party pushing Hungary in a more pro-EU direction, with a higher likelihood of restoring rule-of-law alignment and closer cooperation with Brussels.

Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro weakened against the dollar to $1.1692 in European morning trading. The British pound also fell against the dollar, down 0.3% at $1.3416.

Stock markets face a turbulent session

Stock markets in Europe opened in negative territory, with London’s FTSE 100 opening down 0.4%, the DAX in Frankfurt falling 1%, and Paris’s CAC 40 down nearly 0.9%.

Stock markets were also down in Asia on Monday. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 1.0% in morning trading to 56,357.40. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.5% to 8,913.50. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 1.1% to 5,795.15. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped nearly 1.5% to 25,513.42, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to 3,976.57.

Analysts said global trading was expected to remain turbulent for some time.

“The outcome of the talks was not really what people were hoping for, that’s for certain,” Neil Newman, Managing Director and Head of Strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said in Hong Kong.

“As we stand here at the moment, it doesn’t look very nice. Certainly, the oil prices are a big concern.”

Wall Street ended last week with a second weekly gain in a row. The S&P 500 inched 0.1% lower on Friday after a day of choppy trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%. But those gains came amid optimism over weekend peace talks in Pakistan that was later shattered by subsequent developments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.32% last Friday from 4.29% late Thursday.

In currency trading, the US dollar gained to 159.74 Japanese yen from 159.25 yen. The euro cost $1.1687, down from $1.1729.

What markets are watching this week

Markets are entering a busy week, with all eyes still on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications of the Iran conflict.

In the US, investors are watching the first major wave of corporate earnings reports, including those of big banks and tech companies, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, ASML and TSMC reporting this week.

This is set against a backdrop of key US inflation and producer price data, as well as jobless claims. These figures are critical for gauging whether the Federal Reserve is moving closer to rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington begin this week.

The latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF, out on Tuesday, will also be of interest, and could offer further insight into how these institutions are assessing the global economy’s resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In Europe, investors are focused on PMI and industrial activity data, which will provide insight into whether the eurozone economy is stabilising or still struggling with weak demand.

Asian stocks fall as naval blockade threat injects new turmoil into financial markets.

Oil prices have risen sharply following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade of Iran.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose more than 8 percent on Sunday to top $103 a barrel.

It was the first time the benchmark rose above the psychologically important threshold of $100 since Tuesday, when prices surpassed $111 a barrel.

Trump announced on Sunday that the US Navy would block all ships from entering or exiting the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of ceasefire talks between US and Iranian officials over the weekend.

US Central Command said in a later statement that it would only block vessels travelling to and from Iran and that other traffic would not be impeded, in an apparent scaling back of Trump’s threat to impose a full blockade.

The command said the blockade would take effect on Monday at 10am Eastern Time (14:00 GMT).

Oil prices have been a rollercoaster since US-Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to impose a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies.

After topping $119 last month, Brent fell below $92 a barrel last week after the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire following more than six weeks of war.

While Iran has allowed a limited number of ships to transit the waterway, subject to prior vetting and authorisation, traffic has been reduced to a trickle compared with peacetime levels.

Despite Washington and Tehran’s fragile truce officially remaining in place until April 22, only 17 vessels crossed the strait on Saturday, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward, down from roughly 130 daily transits before the war.

Major stock markets in Asia opened lower on Monday as Trump’s blockade threat stoked uncertainty on trading floors.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.9 percent in morning trading, while South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than 1 percent.

US stock futures, which are traded outside of regular market hours, also fell, with those tied to the benchmark S&P 500 down about 0.8 percent.

April 9 (UPI) — Oil prices were on the rise again on Thursday amid concerns a “fragile” cease-fire between the United States, Iran and Israel could unravel over continued fighting in Lebanon and few signs the Strait of Hormuz was about to reopen to shipping.

The Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate international benchmarks were both trading around 4% higher at $98.62 and $99.94 a barrel respectively in early afternoon trade on Thursday, after prices plunged Wednesday on the announcement of a two-week cessation of hostilities.

Share prices in Asia also fell overnight with the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo giving up some of the gains made on Wednesday with European stocks following suit when exchanges opened Thursday morning.

The market reacted to warnings from both sides that they were prepared to resume military action if the other did not adhere to truce terms neither party accepts are the same, with Tehran saying Israeli strikes on Lebanon were a “grave violation” and Washington saying Iran must comply with the “real” agreement.

There was also growing concern over the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, a key term of the agreement which must be implemented to ease the disruption to global oil supply that has sent prices soaring.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told BBC Radio on Thursday that Iran would “provide security for safe passage” through the sea lane via which around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas is exported, but only “after the United States withdraws this aggression” — an apparent reference to the Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

He stressed that while the 21-mile wide strait had been “open for millennia” prior to the war, it was not international waters and that shipping only transited on the goodwill of Iran and Oman” — the sovereign countries on either side of the channel.

Khatibzadeh dodged questioning over how safe vessels would be and whether they would be required to pay tolls, saying Tehran wanted a “peaceful” arrangement, but that it would not permit “misuse” of the Gulf by warships.

However, London-headquartered shipping brokerage SSY Global said the Iranian navy had issued a warning to ships in the Persian Gulf that any vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz without permission “will be targeted and destroyed.”

Announcing the cease-fire on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the deal hinged on the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the strait, a point pressed home on Wednesday by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who said while there were signs the process was starting Iran was required to fully open the strait.

“The president is very, very clear the deal is a cease-fire, a negotiation. That’s what we give, and what they give is that straits are going to be reopened. If we don’t see that happening, the president is not going to abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms.”

The White House announced Wednesday that Vance would lead the U.S. negotiating team at talks due to get underway in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday.

Khatibzadeh said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, would head up the Iranian side.

The talks will try to reconcile two very different visions of the way forward — a 15-point U.S. plan and a 10-point Iranian plan — with Iran’s nuclear program which the Americans want totally scrapped but Iran insists on retaining for civilian energy purposes — topping the agenda.

April 8 (UPI) — Global oil prices tumbled after the United States, Israel and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-brokered two-week cease-fire deal that included reopening the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.

The Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate benchmarks saw double-digit percentage falls following U.S. President Donald Trump‘s announcement of the breakthrough Tuesday evening, and have since stabilized, changing hands at $95.51 and $96.48 a barrel in early trade on Wednesday.

The market reacted to the prospect that oil tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf would be finally be able to transit the 21-mile-wide body of water between Iran and the UAE and Oman, easing major disruption to global supply caused by Iran’s effective blockade of the strait.

However, oil remained well above its $72 a barrel level on Feb. 27, the day before the United States and Israel unleashed their airborne offensive against Iran, amid uncertainty over the mechanism for the resumption of maritime traffic in the strait and the ongoing impact of war damage to energy infrastructure in Gulf countries.

There was also confusion over whether the cease-fire extended to Israel’s military offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Pakistan said it did, but Israel said it did not and that its operations would continue.

Financial markets in Europe rallied Wednesday morning, following very significant gains in Asia, where the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo ended up 5.42%, Korea’s KOSPI surged almost 7% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed up more than 3%.

Out-of-hours futures transactions in the United States suggested equities would also rally very strongly there when stock exchanges open in a few hours.

Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets in New York, expressed skepticism.

“It wasn’t much of a surprise that there was an announced reprieve in the Iranian conflict. The concern now is if this all too familiar ‘two-week’ timeframe is going to lead to a resolution,” said Woods.

A statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council posted on X by the Iranian foreign minister said safe passage of ships through Hormuz Strait would be possible for the duration of the cease-fire, but that it would have to be “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.”

In a post on his Truth Social platform in the early hours of Wednesday hailing the cease-fire, Trump pledged U.S. assistance with the logistical problems.

“The United States will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!” Trump wrote.

MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic told the BBC that while the number of ships getting through the Hormuz Strait would increase from a trickle, a return to normal levels of energy production in the region was unlikely without a permanent end to the conflict and warning that repairs to damaged infrastructure could take many months.

Published on 08/04/2026 – 9:14 GMT+2•Updated
9:25

Oil prices have fallen sharply and Asian markets surged on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz but traders are cautious so far until the truce proves durable.

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Brent crude stood at $92.99 per barrel as of Wednesday morning, up 28.30% since the war began in late February but well below the peaks of recent weeks which went up to $110 per barrel.

WTI crude sat at $94.70 per barrel, still 41.30% above pre-war levels despite the ceasefire-driven selloff. Wholesale gasoline was at $2.94 per gallon, also up more than 41% since the conflict began.

The moves follow a dramatic overnight plunge after US President Donald Trump said he was holding off on threatened strikes against Iranian bridges, power plants and other civilian infrastructure.

Iran’s foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would be open to shipping for the next two weeks under Iranian military management.

Asia surges, Europe slides

Asian markets responded with enthusiasm. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 5.0% in early Wednesday trading, South Korea’s Kospi soared 5.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.6%.

European markets told a different story. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 6.82% in early trading, reflecting the accumulated damage from weeks of war-driven volatility rather than Wednesday’s ceasefire bounce — European markets having closed before the overnight news broke.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 is down by 3.81% in pre-market US trading, having swung sharply during Tuesday’s session before clawing back losses after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend his deadline and called on Iran to reopen the strait.

Cautious optimism

The ceasefire has done little to fully settle markets.

Attacks were still reported in Israel, Iran and across the Gulf region in the early hours of Wednesday, and neither side has specified when the truce formally begins.

The worry that has stalked markets since late February remains, namely that a prolonged disruption to Gulf oil flows will keep energy prices elevated long enough to push a fresh wave of inflation through the global economy — with or without a ceasefire.