Iran

WASHINGTON — Senate Republican Leader Bob Dole, disagreeing sharply with Vice President George Bush, has blasted the Iranian arms sale as contrary to American principles and declared that Lt. Col. Oliver L. North is no hero.

Bush supported President Reagan’s covert plan of selling arms to Iran in exchange for American hostages held in Lebanon. And the vice president has hailed North, who has admitted lying to Congress and destroying official records in an effort to conceal his role in the Iran-Contra scandal, as someone who will go down in history as a hero.

Dole, in a television interview with British journalist David Frost, to be broadcast nationwide on Sunday, said the Iranian arms sale “runs against the grain of everything we stand for in America.”

When pressed on whom he blames for “the whole Iran-Contra mess,” Dole pointed out that Reagan had accepted responsibility for it and said the President “gets a little of that . . . . Everybody around him gets a little of that.”

History will regard North as a patriot with an exemplary record, Dole said, but as an agent for Reagan in the Iran-Contra affair the Marine officer “overstepped his bounds,” did not serve the President well and “is not a hero in that regard.”

In a program broadcast on Dec. 6, Bush told Frost that North did a better job even “than our great communicator of a President” in expressing what was at stake in Central America during the Iran-Contra hearings and that “the American people in every bar in Chicago and every bowling alley in Texas and every little home said: ‘Hey, this guy believes in something, and I can identify with it.’ ”

Public opinion polls show Bush with a substantial lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, with Dole holding a firm grip on second place and the other four candidates trailing far behind.

Dole and his wife, Elizabeth, who resigned as Reagan’s transportation secretary to campaign for her husband, both were interviewed by Frost for the hourlong program. It is the sixth of a 13-part series, called “The Next President,” which features interviews with presidential candidates and their wives and is co-produced by Frost and U.S. News & World Report.

The senator said it is possible that his wife, a former Federal Trade Commission member and presidential assistant who has frequently been mentioned as a candidate for vice president, will be selected as a running mate for the Republican presidential nominee.

‘Some Interest’

Although there is “some interest” in her being on the ticket, he said, it “probably is not going to happen unless she is on the ticket with someone else. Now that could happen.”

The senator, who has frequently drawn attention to Bush’s prep school and country club background, described his own working-class upbringing in Russell, Kan., in the Frost interview and said the Republican Party needs to reach out to “hard-working, real people” to dispel its image as a party of the privileged.

As the older brother of his family, Dole said, he handed down his clothes to his brother, Kenny, and his sister Gloria handed down her clothes to her younger sister, Norma Jean.

“There weren’t a lot of wealthy families in our little hometown,” he said. “My father wore overalls every day to work. So we . . . certainly didn’t have much money, but I remember my dad had an old car called a Whippet, which is quite an automobile.”

With other young boys in Russell, he said, he “raked the leaves and mowed the lawns and delivered handbills and newspapers and sacked groceries and worked in my father’s cream and egg station.”

In recalling the eight years he served as county attorney while still a young man in Russell, Dole said that every month he had to approve welfare claims and every month he found his grandparents on the welfare list.

“And you know,” said Dole, who frequently stresses the need for government assistance to the disadvantaged, “they weren’t lazy, but they were poor and they were old. And they’d been farmers. And I think that’s another dimension. Seems to me leadership is about a lot of things.

“But it’s got to stem from who you are and where you’re from and all those things. I mean, your own life is the key to whatever you’re going to do later on.”

Dole said he went through a “fairly dark” period right after Jimmy Carter defeated then-President Gerald R. Ford in the 1976 election. As Ford’s running mate, Dole made several harsh attacks on the Carter-Mondale ticket that some political observers thought were counterproductive and may have even cost Ford the election.

“But I remember Richard Nixon calling me the day after the election and saying: ‘Now, Bob, get ready. Somebody is going to be looking for a scapegoat,’ ” Dole said. “They are going to be saying Ronald Reagan didn’t work hard enough, Nelson Rockefeller didn’t work enough, Bob Dole didn’t work hard enough, Jerry Ford made the gaffe about Poland. So I was already prepared.”

Reshaping Image

Mrs. Dole has been widely credited with helping to soften her husband’s image since the 1976 election, and the senator said that, although he could not say whether this was true, his wife had been helpful in consulting with him after reviewing tapes of all his appearances on television during the 1976 campaign.

“All the tapes where people said Bob Dole had been harsh and some even said a ‘hatchet man,’ ” the senator said. “She concluded they were not accurate. But, in any event, I think from that standpoint it’s been very helpful.”

Frost asked Mrs. Dole whether she understood the “troubled reaction” of a minority of women who questioned her giving up her career to help her husband in his quest for the presidency.

“Well, you know, as you said, it was a minority,” she said. “The overwhelming response that I had was yes, you did the right thing. My feeling about it is that we women have worked hard for the right to make our own career decisions, to make our own decisions generally, to do what we feel is right and best. And this was very much a personal decision.”

Citing an article in a Washington publication that compared Mrs. Dole to Jackie Kennedy, “a glamorous feminine figure draped in a frame of steel,” Frost asked if she liked that description.

“Oh, my goodness,” Elizabeth Dole said. “Well, I’m a believer in being yourself, and I don’t think that women have to make themselves over into the image of a man to be successful at what they do. I really think we should all be ourselves.”

Despite risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea, seafarers from the Philippines are still competing for jobs.

Manila, Philippines – Monsoon rains may have forced schools to shut down and suspended government services in the Philippine capital last week, but applicants at shipping companies and employment agencies still formed long lines that snaked around street corners.

The rain was the least of their worries. They were taking the first step on a journey that would take them to increasingly treacherous waters – and they say they are fully aware of the risks.

Gerald, a veteran sailor, was sorting out some last-minute paperwork for his next deployment next week. He is going to board the same ship he was last on – a cargo vessel off the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. The last time he was there, he was stuck for two months. He was due to return to the Philippines when the United States and Israel launched air attacks on Iran in late February.

“There was one missile that flew over. The navy intercepted it right when it was above us, so we hid,” recalled Gerald, who asked for his full name not to be used to protect his job. “We knew fragments could land on our ship. But what can we do? There was nowhere safe.”

He said he had never had to face and fear and uncertainty in 15 years as a commercial seafarer. As the US-Israel war on Iran spread across the region, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, he and his stranded colleagues for weeks watched projectiles from both directions blow up mid-air. Shrapnel mostly ended up in the water, but the crossfire prevented their usual rations from coming through. They had to brave the danger and fish on the deck to survive.

But none of that has deterred him – not even the on-and-off diplomacy between Washington and Tehran.

“I was able to save enough to buy a property after just two years of sailing,” he said. “I was able to build a house for my parents.”

The sea had always been a source of food and income for Gerald. He grew up in a fishing village. And while he says he was never hungry, sailing in waters beyond his hometown changed his life.

“This job has provided me with a decent income. And it’s the only job I’ve known for a long time. I can’t just go into business or farming. That’s easier said than done,” he said.

‘If I die, my family will be set for life’

At the height of the war in March, nearly 20,000 sailors on 1,500 ships were trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. At least 17 have been killed in attacks since then.

The Philippines supplies more than a quarter of the world’s seafaring workforce. Among the 6,000 sailors currently stranded in the waterway, approximately 2,500 are Filipinos, according to data from the International Maritime Organization in July.

But even when the US and Iran struck an interim deal in June to end the war, there was no mass repatriation of Filipino sailors. The Department of Migrant Workers said more than 60 have since returned home from the Gulf, but most Filipinos on vessels that have been able to transit the Strait of Hormuz remain on board.

Alberto Lobaton was also due to return to sea and was staying at the same apartment complex near Manila Bay where Gerald was. The place has served as a halfway house for seafarers for years and was fully booked despite escalating maritime conflicts.

In addition to the conflict in the Gulf, there has been an increase in attacks on merchant vessels in the Black Sea as the war between Russia and Ukraine intensifies. In July alone, 35 ships were struck, and more than 20 sailors were killed, including at least three Filipinos.

Lobaton witnessed one such strike last year.

“I felt the ship shake because the explosion was so close. It was just around 300 metres (984 feet) away; I was in our quarters, but those who were on duty that night stood up and ran,” said Lobaton.

The Philippine government has appealed to shipowners to avoid high-risk areas or disembark their Filipino crew. It’s also reminded Filipino sailors they have the right to refuse to sail.

Lobaton says it would be a lie to say he is not concerned for his safety, but the financial rewards outweigh the risk of injury or death.

“If I die, my family will be set for life because we are insured. So if something were to happen to me, I’d prefer it happened while I’m at work at sea.”

Published on
11/08/2026 – 13:25 GMT+2

Crude and US Treasury yields rose together as traders judged that the exchange of compensation demands between the US and Iran has pushed any potential deal further out of reach.

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The US president said on Monday he had told his negotiators to seek payment from Iran for Americans killed and wounded in attacks he attributes to Tehran going back decades, including the bombing of the USS Cole in the year 2000 and for Iranians killed in protest crackdowns.

In a follow-up post on Truth Social he expanded on the demand, saying Iran should also pay for “the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza”.

Tehran, whose representatives had sought compensation for five months of US and Israeli bombardment, says the Strait of Hormuz will stay shut until Washington lifts its naval blockade, ends sanctions and releases frozen Iranian assets.

The front month contract on Brent traded at around $89.8 a barrel on Tuesday and West Texas Intermediate at about $84.2, both up roughly 2.5%.

The US bond market read it the same way, with yields rising across the US curve in a modest global sell-off, the two-year over 4.25%, the ten-year above 4.7% and the thirty-year higher than 5.27%. The yields for all durations are trading at the highs of this year.

Since yields move inversely to prices, the rise means investors are selling government debt as they expect that costlier oil will feed into inflation and strengthen the case for higher interest rates.

Money markets now put roughly even odds on a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, with July inflation data due on Wednesday.

Control claimed, traffic missing

The current stalling of US-Iran negotiations is deliberate as US President Donald Trump appears to have been favouring a slower approach as of late.

The US president told Axios in an interview published on Sunday that the US is “low-keying it,” meaning Washington was only semi-negotiating and content to watch Iran’s inflation and empty coffers do the work, a signal he is prepared to let economic pressure mount rather than order a fresh military campaign.

In the Oval Office on Monday, he struck a triumphant note, claiming the US controls “100%” of the Strait of Hormuz, that only the US Navy holds sway in the region, that American forces have swept it clear of Iranian mines and that the blockade of Iranian ports is impenetrable.

However, shipping data tells another story.

Confirmed crossings have run at 6 to 11 vessels a day recently, against the 130 to 140 daily before the war, according to Kpler data, leaving traffic at a fraction of normal levels throughout the five-month conflict.

Half of America’s most advanced missiles are gone. The Pentagon wants $67bn to restock, on top of $37.5bn already spent fighting Iran. So where is all that money actually going? Al Jazeera’s Yasmeen ElTahan explains.

President Trump signaled he’s prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch fresh military strikes to force a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as the Islamic Republic reiterated that the conditions still aren’t in place to allow free passage through the key waterway.

“We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” Trump told Axios in an interview on Sunday, saying that a US naval blockade of the country was deepening its financial woes. “We are low-keying it.”

The president’s comments mark a shift from his repeated threats to escalate the bombing campaign against Iran and come amid lingering talks between Tehran and Oman to reopen Hormuz. Iran has said it’s nearing a deal, while laying out a list of demands for Washington to meet before shipping can resume — including the lifting of sanctions.

“As long as hostile actions continue, the conditions for ensuring the safety of this waterway are not in place,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters on Monday. “Its reopening is contingent on the US ceasing its illegal actions, lifting the siege and compensating for damages.”

Brent crude rose 1% on Monday to over $84 a barrel, extending a rally of more than 5% over the previous three sessions. The contract is still down since the start of the month.

The Islamic Republic’s economy has taken a hammering from the war, with much of its industrial capacity destroyed, crude exports severely curtailed by a US blockade and central bank data showing year-on-year inflation recently reaching 77%.

The currency, meanwhile, has fallen more than 10% from its prewar level, adding to the economic pressure on Iranians. A depreciation of the rial sparked violent nationwide protests that peaked early this year, leading to a crackdown by authorities that left thousands dead. There have been no signs of the anti-government demonstrations resuming.

Iran reemphasized its determination to continue wielding control over Hormuz in the face of US opposition by naming hard-line former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohsen Rezaee to its top security post over the weekend. An advocate for full Iranian control over the waterway, he served as military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and will now head the Supreme National Security Council, which coordinates decisions on the war and negotiations to end it.

Rezaee replaces Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a fellow hard-liner who accepted a new position as political adviser to the supreme leader. The appointments were reported by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency late Sunday.

Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a pact with Oman to establish a shipping route through the strait was “very close,” without providing details on the substance. He ruled out direct talks with the US for now, but said the two sides are exchanging messages through intermediaries.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transited before the war, has become a key sticking point in the negotiations to bring a lasting end to the fighting that began when the US and Israel staged airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Trump has demanded free passage for months.

Tehran’s demands for a full reopening include the US lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports, the release of frozen assets and compensation for war damage. It has also called for a permanent end to attacks on groups it backs in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza. It’s unclear how strictly Iran will stick to the list of conditions.

Some of the demands will be difficult for the US to meet alone. In Gaza, a proposal by US-backed mediators to disarm Iran-backed Hamas and push Israeli army out of the Palestinian enclave was rejected by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday.

In Yemen, clashes between the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and forces from the internationally recognized government supported by neighboring Saudi Arabia, have escalated. The Houthis claimed to have struck Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery on Sunday, while Saudi authorities reported a fire that was quickly extinguished, with no injuries.

The incident would mark at least the second blaze at the 400,000 barrel-a-day complex in a month. Satellite images in late July showed a tank fire following another claimed Houthi attack.

Sykes writes for Bloomberg.

Trump says US will wait for economic pressure to mount on Iran, as Israel formally rejects 15-point Gaza peace plan.

Aug. 9 (UPI) — Iran has replaced its top security official with another commander of its powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a spokesman for Iranian Masoud Pezeshkian said late Sunday.

Mohsen Rezaei, who had been an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, will be the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. He replaced Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who resigned.

Zolghadr had been in the post since his predecessor, Ali Larijani, was killed in an Israeli air strike in March. He will serve as political adviser to Khamenei.

The shakeup came as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran is not talking directly with the U.S. to end the war with Tehran and open the Strait of Hurmuz, despite claims by U.S. officials that the sides are near a deal.

Araghchi was quoted by the Mehr news agency as saying that “messages are being exchanged through intermediaries” and Iran isn’t talking directly with Washington. He reportedly added Washington must meet conditions by Iran if a deal is reached with Oman to open a trade route through the waterway.

U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios on Sunday his administration is “low keying it” in negotiations with Tehran.

“We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” Trump said. “It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.”

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei would have to agree to any deal to open the strait.

On Saturday, Zolghadr said U.S. forces should be withdrawn from near Iran. He added that the U.S. should compensate Iran for war damages as well as lift sanctions.

Iranian diplomats said earlier last week that Tehran and Oman were near a new agreement to manage the strait.

Tehran, Iran – Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have expanded their mutual defence pact to add Turkiye, raising questions about the emergence of a new security architecture at a time when the United States and Iran have yet to reach a final deal to end their war.

Under the agreement signed in Mecca on Friday, any external armed attack on either of the three countries will now be considered an attack on all.

The trilateral pact was announced more than five months after the US and Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran, triggering a conflict that quickly spread to the Gulf and disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, however, have been careful not to antagonise any regional or international actors while finalising what they said was the result of years of hard work and negotiations. They have stressed the pact, which does not identify a specific threat, is not targeted against any country – particularly Iran – and does not abrogate or replace any existing agreements with others.

In Tehran, the reaction has largely been subdued, with officials mostly focusing on aspects of regional and Muslim cooperation and what they perceive as a declining role for the US.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that when Muslims stand together, “we can face every challenge by malicious outsiders head-on”.

“Time to rely only on ourselves and embrace true brotherhood,” he wrote on X, without directly mentioning the trilateral agreement signed hours earlier.

But Iran certainly sees some reasons to be concerned in the long run, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher and analyst on Iran and Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics.

The associate at Clingendael Institute told Al Jazeera that the timing is important, since the agreement comes after months of a war in which Saudi Arabia has faced attacks from the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen and armed groups in neighbouring Iraq.

“From Tehran’s perspective, the concern is therefore not only that the pact could strengthen Saudi deterrence, but that it could eventually facilitate coordinated pressure on Iran in Yemen, Iraq, and even economically through Turkiye and Pakistan,” he said.

On Sunday, the Houthis claimed another successful drone strike on the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan. Saudi Arabia confirmed a fire was extinguished without inflicting casualties, but did not mention the cause.

Separately in Yemen, Houthi missiles and drones struck the Saudi-backed and internationally recognised government’s Red Sea port of al-Makha, with officials reporting at least seven people killed, 15 wounded and severe infrastructure damage. The Yemeni group, which has also been hitting or turning back Saudi-linked ships in the Red Sea over recent weeks, said it targeted weapons depots.

‘A strong bloc’

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not released a formal statement about the Pakistan-Saudi-Turkiye deal, but a senior official outlined Tehran’s diplomatic thinking in an interview with local media on Saturday.

Hossein Noushabadi, a director general for parliamentary and legal affairs, told the state-linked ISNA news service that the ministry predominantly regards the agreement within the context of a diminishing direct US presence in the region.

The pact “is being viewed as the beginning of the collapse of US security hegemony in West Asia and the Persian Gulf”, said Noushabadi.

“It appears that, in the not-too-distant future, a new regional security order based on cooperation among regional states will replace the power structures imposed by extra-regional actors, heralding the end of the prevailing security and geopolitical paradigm and West Asia’s departure from the sphere of vital US interests,” added the official, who is a former Iranian envoy to Oman.

Political scientist Vali Nasr said he does not believe the pact is currently a threat to Tehran.

“For now, these are all elements of a post-American security order in the Middle East,” the professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University told Al Jazeera.

“This is also as much a balance to the Abraham Accords as a direct challenge to Tehran,” he added, in reference to the US-pushed regional normalisation effort with Israel, which US President Donald Trump last month tied with a civil nuclear deal sought by Saudi Arabia.

Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University of Qatar, also agreed that decision-makers in Iran do not immediately feel threatened by the pact, especially since they have maintained cordial relations with both Pakistan and Turkiye even under trying circumstances.

“Ultimately, this pact is not that new, nor is it something that, at present at least, has a great deal of substance beyond its symbolic significance. For example, neither Turkiye nor Pakistan would be willing to get involved in Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen despite recent Houthi attacks on the kingdom,” Kamrava told Al Jazeera.

Not all inside Iran are content with the pact, however, with some hardline lawmakers and media arguing that it could ultimately be directed against the “resistance front” of Tehran-backed armed forces across the region, and degrade Pakistan’s credibility as a main mediator between Iran and the US and others.

“It’s clear that Arab states finally understand security cannot be imported; it must be built within the region. However, a roadmap is still missing,” Ebrahim Azizi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said in a more hawkish viewing of the pact.

“Warning: Miscalculation is a historical mistake. Iran has proven that every error comes at a cost. Balance is the only way forward,” he wrote on X.

Ebrahim Rezaei, another member of the commission, also wrote on X that “a paper agreement with Turkiye and Pakistan” will not bring Saudi Arabia security, “just as years of one-sided dependence on the Americans did not bring them security”.

Is Iran missing out?

Clingendael Institute’s Azizi said Tehran’s priority will likely be to avoid turning the pact into an explicitly anti-Iranian coalition amid a war with regional repercussions, and that would mean preserving individual relations with each of the three countries.

He said Tehran can also continue to emphasise its long-standing argument that regional security should ultimately be organised by regional states rather than external powers.

“If those states come to see the pact as providing meaningful protection against Iran or Iran-aligned groups, that would make Iranian membership even more difficult,” said Azizi. “Over the longer term, however, if the arrangement evolves from a balancing coalition into a broader regional security architecture, the question of Iranian participation could look quite different.”

Experts also said it could be a possibility that Iran itself would be seeking potential membership in the pact in a distant future, but that would mean a sustainable end to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and across the region, while expansion to other regional Arab states seems more plausible in the near term. Egypt has already been floated as a candidate, but that could be a complex decision for Cairo to make.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North African Programme at Chatham House, said the trilateral pact reflects both short- and long-term security concerns and opportunities for Riyadh, Islamabad and Ankara.

“They are driven together to forge greater diplomatic and defence cooperation in reaction to US unreliability, Israeli revisionism and Iranian retaliation,” she told Al Jazeera.

After visiting the West Bank, the group of public figures known as “The Elders” has concluded that Israel “aims to make Palestine disappear physically, economically, culturally and politically”.

Mary Robinson, former president of the Republic of Ireland and one of the leading members of The Elders, tells host Steve Clemons that the delegation was “shocked” at how the situation has deteriorated since 2023.

“It starts with hate speech, clear talk about Jewish supremacy and annexation of the West Bank,” says Robinson, adding that the Israeli government affords “complete impunity” for settlers and soldiers grabbing land and disrupting the lives of Palestinians across the territory.

Kuwait has since the beginning of the Iran War in February been targeted by Iranian drones and missiles 1,400 times. Why has this state—smaller than the US state of New Jersey—been targeted more than any of its larger neighbors including Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates?

A military node

This question takes us all the way back to 1991 when the US intervenes when Iraq under Saddam Hussein invades Kuwait. In return, Kuwait has since hosted one of the the largest US armies in the Middle East of 13,000 troops, and has the fourth biggest deployment of the US military globally. Furthermore, Kuwait is one of five U.S. Army Prepositioned Stocks (APS) sites across the world— a cornerstone of the US’ global military strategy as it allows for rapid deployment and display of influence. And not only does Kuwait not charge the US for its land use, or restrict US troop movements on its territory—unlike most other host countries—but indeed pays the US for its troop presence, and subsidies energy and water costs for the military bases.

A geostrategic asset  

In exchange, Kuwait’s geostrategic location on the Arabian peninsula and along the air corridor between Asia and Europe makes the country an important location for the US to secure its interests and exert influence in the region and beyond. Indeed, the US has designated Kuwait as a Major Non-Nato Ally since 2004, and has located its biggest air logistics facility in the Middle East in conjunction with Kuwait international airport. Thus, Kuwait has proven a key logistical hub for US military operations in the region including against the Islamic State and during the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Furthermore, Kuwait holds 7% of the world’s oil reserves, reinforcing its importance for the US and other oil consuming countries, while also making it strategically vulnerable to Iranian attacks on energy plants in late July, as this adds to the ongoing energy insecurity created by the closure of the key oil trade route through the Strait of Hormuz.

The end of diplomatic balancing?

Despite these far-reaching strategic links with the US, Kuwait has long maintained a diplomatic balancing act, refusing to normalise relations with Israel while simultaneously refraining from condemning the Iranian regime. Moreover, Kuwait has often assumed the role of neutral mediator in the Middle East. For example, Kuwait mediated the 2021 rapprochement between Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, and has contributed to peace efforts in Yemen. In addition, Kuwait has been much more cautious in its statements concerning the Iranian regime, unlike its vocally critical, yet less targeted neighbors such as the United Arab Emirates, and has even refused to allow the US to use military bases in Kuwait for launching attacks on Iran.

Geographic liabilities

Even so, Kuwait has fallen prey to its geography. For one, its geographical proximity to Iran makes Kuwait a comparatively cheap and easy target for Iranian missiles, while its lack of naturally occurring fresh water and consequent reliance on desalination provides Teheran an additional pressure point, as illustrated by Iranian attacks on desalination plants in late July. Furthermore, its proximity to Iraq has exposed it to attacks by Iraqi Shia militias, allied with Teheran.

And the risk of further attacks in the future is high. On 1 August, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that it would react ”decisively” against any US strikes, and warned Gulf states against permitting the US and Israel to use bases on their territories to launch attacks against Iran. Similarly, Iraq announced that its military forces stood ready to ‘thwart any attempts at targeting neighbouring countries within our regional sphere.’ Thus, recent developments suggest that Kuwait might no longer be able to remain an independent diplomatically oriented actor that can stay out of the conflicts in the Middle East.

Ideology

While Iran’s official rationale for the attacks has been to target US military targets and assets, the attacks on energy and desalination plants are neither; these are civilian infrastructures. Hence it is Kuwaiti civilians—not the US military capacity—that bear the brunt of the attacks. This suggests that Iranian attacks have not only immediate military objectives in context of the current war, but also underlying psychological and ideological motives, as these attacks can be seen as a way of scaring countries that go against Iran’s exhortations—reiterated since 1979–to its Gulf neighbors to cut ties with the US. In addition, the attacks expose the limitations of US security guarantee, and undermine the credibility of the US promises of stability and protection to its allies.

A change of strategy

Consequently, Kuwait may pivot toward building up more national military defence capabilities, as the deterrence guarantee that the well-accommodated US presence was supposed to provide has ostensibly failed, while Kuwait’s lack of domestic military resources to retaliate further enticed Iranian attacks.

Hence, it appears that the security order in the Middle East is set to become even more fragile, with the US increasingly proving incapable or unwilling to ensure what has long been considered a stabilising presence, and with regional actors increasingly divided and polarized, making neutral mediation harder.

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted unless the US meets a series of demands. The UAE accuses Tehran of targeting an oil tanker, while Yemen’s Houthis claim an attack on a Saudi refinery. Al Jazeera’s Nour Hegazy reports.

The pact includes an Article 5-style mutual-defence clause, but questions remain over how it would operate in practice and how Tehran will respond.

Turkish leaders have insisted that the new trilateral defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is not directed at Iran.

Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Saturday that the pact does not identify Iran, or any other country, as a common threat.

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was signed on Friday by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, stating that an armed attack on one of the three countries would be considered an attack on them all.

“There is no common threat that we have put in writing,” Fidan told Turkey’s state-run Anadolu agency, adding that countries that do not attack the signatories would not be considered targets.

An Article 5-style commitment

Fidan described the pact as “technically” similar to NATO’s Article 5 collective-defence clause, under which an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all.

But the response would depend on the circumstances.

A country under attack would have to request assistance and specify what kind of support it needed, Fidan said. That could range from intelligence and logistics to ammunition or the deployment of military units.

The alliance will also establish political and military committees, bringing together foreign and defence ministers and military chiefs, as well as a secretariat in Saudi Arabia.

Fidan said the three countries would work on joint training, intelligence sharing, logistics, threat assessments and military interoperability.

Defence-industry cooperation is also expected to be a notable part of the pact. Fidan said it was one of the main issues discussed by the three leaders in Mecca, including how the countries could benefit from each other’s military technologies.

The Turkish minister said preparations for the agreement had been under way for nearly two years and eight months, suggesting it was not drawn up simply in response to the current tensions involving Iran.

Iran pushes back

Despite Ankara’s assurances, some Iranian officials have questioned the agreement and warned Saudi Arabia against relying on its new partners for security.

Mahmoud Nabavian, a member of Iran’s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said Saudi leaders should understand that cooperation with Turkiye and Pakistan would not guarantee their security.

Another commission member, Ebrahim Rezaei, similarly dismissed the pact as a “paper agreement”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi did not directly mention the agreement in a message on X on Friday, but he called on regional states to rely on themselves and pursue what he described as “true brotherhood”.

At the same time, he stressed the strength and readiness of Iran’s armed forces.

Egypt could join next

Fidan portrayed the agreement as part of a broader effort to give regional countries greater responsibility for their own security.

“External hegemons coming into the region do not solve the problems; they make them more acute,” he told Anadolu.

He described Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as the “core countries” of the initiative and made clear that Ankara wants the arrangement to expand.

“Under our president’s vision, we should not remain limited to three countries,” Fidan said. “We should grow and, if necessary, bring all countries under this umbrella.”

Several countries have already expressed interest, according to Fidan, who said he expected Egypt, which he described as a “natural partner”, to join once outstanding technical issues were resolved.

For now, many of the practical details remain to be worked out, including how the three militaries would coordinate in a crisis.

But the planned committees, permanent secretariat and focus on interoperability and defence-industry cooperation suggest the pact is intended to develop beyond a simple mutual defence declaration.

IRGC sets terms to reopen Hormuz as US seeks commitments to end attacks on ships in the waterway.

US Vice President JD Vance claims Washington has “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear programme and degraded its military, as Tehran demands US compensation and an end to the naval blockade before reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf and Arab governments condemn Iran over missile strike on Emirati tanker.

The United Arab Emirates has accused Iran of striking a tanker owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) with a missile as it crossed the Strait of Hormuz, drawing swift condemnation from Gulf and Arab governments.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Saturday that the vessel was hit in the early hours of the morning while transiting the strategic waterway, a chokepoint for a large share of the world’s seaborne oil.

Abu Dhabi described the strike as an act of piracy by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and called on Tehran to halt the attacks and reopen the strait fully and unconditionally.

ADNOC confirmed one of its ships had been targeted by a missile while crossing the strait, according to the state news agency WAM. ADNOC did not provide details on any damage to the vessel or its exact location at the time of the attack.

The UAE ministry said using the waterway as a tool for pressure or economic blackmail threatened regional stability and global energy security.

The IRGC have previously threatened action against any vessels transiting the strait if they are linked to Tehran’s adversaries, or if they fail to comply with Iranian directives.

ADNOC said on Friday that it had been significantly affected by what it described as unprovoked attacks on its personnel and assets, while continuing to meet customer requirements in an “exceptionally challenging environment.”

The company said 15 of its vessels had been attacked by missiles and drones while transiting the strait since the start of the conflict, including three this week, killing one crew member and injuring 20 others. ADNOC did not identify those responsible for the attacks in its Friday statement.

Regional governments condemn attack

Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jassim Mohammed al-Budaiwi condemned the latest attack as a “dangerous and unacceptable escalation”, calling for international action to protect maritime navigation and reaffirming the bloc’s solidarity with the UAE.

Qatar also condemned the attack and rejected the use of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip, calling for the waterway to be reopened without conditions. Doha’s foreign ministry warned that its continued closure threatened the interests of regional states and the global economy.

Saudi Arabia condemned the targeting of the tanker “in the strongest terms,” saying Iran’s continued attacks constituted a grave breach of international law and Resolution 2817. Riyadh held Tehran responsible for the consequences and demanded an immediate halt to the strikes.

Jordan also condemned the attack as a flagrant violation of international law, affirming its full support for the UAE.

The reported attack marks a sharp escalation in tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where the UAE and its Gulf neighbours have pressed for the passage to remain open to international shipping.

Tehran, Iran – Iran’s authorities are weighing a finalised arrangement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, but top officials maintain that the strategic waterway’s full reopening will hinge on concessions from the United States.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday said the agreement with Oman was “very close”, but cautioned that a full reopening of the strait would depend on the US staying true to commitments given as part of a June memorandum of understanding (MoU) that were violated.

Iran has previously slammed the US for backing a southern Omani route in the waterway without coordination with Tehran, not halting Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, and refusing to unfreeze any of Iran’s money blocked abroad due to sanctions.

Separately on Saturday, Hossein Mohebbi, spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), told state media the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz “has its own specific mechanism and has nothing to do with the negotiations between Iran and Oman”.

He added the US will have no choice but to accede to “conditions” set by the Islamic republic to reopen the strategic strait, which Mohebbi said the IRGC views as not just an economic waterway, but a source of power tied to Iran’s geographical position that it intends to leverage.

The IRGC spokesman urged the administration of US President Donald Trump not to “interfere” in the talks with Oman, “which have nearly reached their conclusion”.

On Friday, the spokesperson for the national security commission of Iran’s hardline-dominated parliament also confirmed that the framework of an arrangement with Oman over the strait had been agreed upon, and a deal could be expected soon.

Hassan Qashqavi said the decision was pending a green light from “higher levels”.

In a televised interview, President Masoud Pezeshkian said he would “strongly defend” the MoU signed with the US in June and once again rejected speculation that he would abandon his office, despite claims by hardliners that he has used the threat of resignation as a way of combatting opponents who are against a diplomatic resolution with the US.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said earlier that a joint statement could be expected with Oman if a deal is reached to bring back some traffic to the strait, which has been mostly disrupted since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

Iran and Oman have agreed on the coordinates of routes to be taken by vessels through the waterway as part of the arrangement. Inbound traffic is to pass through a northern lane through Iranian territorial waters, while outbound traffic will go through a southern lane in Omani waters, coordinated with Iran.

US media have said the interim agreement is envisaged for 60 days and can be extended. They have also reported on discussions concerning naval mine clearance from a central corridor that could be utilised in the future, the passage of military vessels and a potential coordinated fee system for passing vessels.

There are questions over what will happen with a US naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports and a drawback of US military assets, which Iran has said will be necessary on the way to fully reopening the strait, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes in peacetime.

Even more ambiguous are prospects of a broader long-term resolution that will also address the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, as well as years of harsh US sanctions over nuclear enrichment that have exacerbated economic shockwaves imposed against 90 million Iranians.

In the meantime, while military activity has significantly dropped across the region to give space to the Oman talks, tensions remain high and maritime security continues to dominate discussions.

The United Arab Emirates said a vessel belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) was targeted by a missile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, but that there were no casualties.

In a statement, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said targeting commercial shipping and using the strait “as a tool of economic coercion or blackmail represents acts of piracy” by the IRGC “and constitutes a direct threat to the stability of the region, its peoples, and global energy security”.

The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen also continue to face off against Saudi Arabia and create disruptions for Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

On Friday, the Houthis launched a deadly attack on an area of Marib controlled by the Saudi-backed, internationally recognised Yemeni government, with the government announcing a military response on several fronts on Saturday.

The Yemeni group also struck southwestern Saudi Arabia’s Najran on Thursday, a day after claiming two separate attacks on Saudi oil tankers.

Traffic in both the Bab al-Mandeb and Hormuz straits was down to just a handful of vessels on Wednesday on the back of the latest escalations, but has relatively rebounded while still far from unobstructed pre-war levels. Some ships have resorted to turning off their transponders to avoid being detected.

Global energy markets have once again welcomed the increasing prospects of a diplomatic agreement that could positively affect the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude standing at about $83 per barrel at Friday’s close.

Markets inside Iran also reacted positively on Saturday, the first day of the working week in Iran, with the national currency strengthening to 1.85 million rials against the US dollar, slightly recovering from all-time lows of about 1.94 million reached last week.

The main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange also climbed by 112,000 points or just over 2 percent to reach 5.52 million, near an all-time high.

The Saudi, Pakistan, Turkiye defence pact faces mixed reactions, with some Iranian officials doubting its security guarantees. Iran and Oman agree on a Hormuz framework, while fighting in Yemen escalates between government forces and Houthis.
Al Jazeera’s @Mohammadfff_ reports.

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi had cancelled an earlier Saudi trip after deadly July 29 US-Saudi strikes on Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ⁠and Saudi Arabian Intelligence chief Khalid bin Ali Al Humaidan have met in Baghdad in an attempt to resolve the governments’ ties strained by deadly cross-border strikes weeks earlier.

Al-Humaidan extended a renewed invitation for al-Zaidi to visit Riyadh in the meeting on Friday, the prime minister’s office said, after the latter’s earlier trip was called off in protest following a joint Saudi-US operation on July 29. The attacks killed 20 fighters of Iraqi armed groups, including five Iranians.

According to al-Zaidi’s office, the two focused on how Baghdad and Riyadh can better coordinate security issues as regional tensions simmer.

Al-Zaidi restated a pledge that Iraqi soil would not become a launchpad for attacks on any other country, and that Baghdad remains determined to guard its sovereignty.

The two countries have had a tense few weeks of diplomacy.

Saudi Arabia justified last month’s strikes on Iraq as retaliation for drone attacks on its oil infrastructure, which it blamed on the same pro-Iranian Iraqi armed groups.

Iraq’s National Security Council rejected the kingdom’s claim outright, calling the operation a breach of national sovereignty. In the days that followed, Iraqi authorities quietly tightened security across the country and along its borders to head off any retaliation.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq – the Iran-aligned network of armed groups that has clashed rhetorically with Riyadh in recent weeks – had promised to retaliate for the US-Saudi strikes.

But it announced on Friday that it was postponing a retaliatory strike, crediting the climbdown to lobbying from Hadi al-Amiri, one of the most powerful pro-Iran voices in Iraq, along with pressure from other unnamed political figures.

The group did not say what it had been preparing to hit.

Al-Zaidi, who took office earlier this year with Washington’s backing, has pledged to bring armed groups under state control and set a September 30 deadline for them to disarm.

His call has since faced opposition from powerful factions.

Iraq has long struggled to balance its ties with both the United States and Iran. The rivalry between Washington and Tehran has repeatedly turned the country into a proxy battleground.

A new mutual defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan has raised questions about the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, where fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran has prompted some countries to seek new arrangements to safeguard their security.

The pact, termed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, was signed in the Saudi city of Mecca on Friday.

“The agreement is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all,” a statement from the meeting reads.

“It further provides for the enhancement of all aspects of defence cooperation among the three states.”

While it is not yet clear what such an agreement might look like in practice, analysts say the pact points to growing questions about the durability of US security guarantees.

“Regional states have harbored growing doubts about the reliability of the US security partnership for more than a decade,” Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, told Al Jazeera over email.

“Both the decision to begin military operations against Iran and the subsequent conduct of the war and the on-off attempts to resolve it have only intensified those concerns and accelerated efforts to diversify security and defence relations.”

But, Ulrichsen added, building new defence pacts is likely not intended “to replace or supplant the US, but to provide additional strategic and policy options”.

Uncertainty over US role

While the administration of US President Donald Trump has yet to weigh in on the pact, analysts say the agreement is an effort by the three countries to reorient themselves after the turmoil of the Iran war.

“This is one of the first major geopolitical signs that the regional order is being reshaped by the US-Israeli war on Iran,” Sina Toossi, an analyst at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera.

“The significance is less about a formal military alliance than about what it says regarding how regional states are reassessing security.”

Toossi pointed to the long-running alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia. For decades, the two countries have enjoyed a strong relationship, hinged on shared security interests. But the pact could be a sign that Saudi Arabia is looking to expand its security alliances.

“Rather than relying primarily on Washington, Saudi Arabia appears to be broadening its security partnerships and laying the groundwork for more intra-regional security arrangements,” Toossi explained. “That is arguably the most important takeaway.”

Media reports have also indicated that US partners in the Middle East were frustrated that the Trump administration had launched February’s war against Iran with little apparent thought to the impact on allies in the region.

Iranian forces have launched waves of missile and drone strikes against US military facilities in the Middle East, causing bystander casualties. Iran has also targeted civilian infrastructure, including energy and desalination plants.

Tehran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for the region’s energy exports, has also imposed a steep cost on local economies.

Despite heavy strikes by the US and Israel, Iran has largely maintained its ability to restrict traffic through the strait, and Washington has struggled to provide partners with sufficient air defence munitions, many of which went to Israel.

‘Normative deterrence’

Under the circumstances created by the war, the longstanding reliance on Washington for security in the region has become more strained.

“It’s a fluid, tabula rasa era in the Middle East,” Brett McGurk, a key architect of Middle East policy under former US President Joe Biden, wrote in a social media post.

But analysts note that Friday’s security pact is best understood as an effort to supplement regional security cooperation with other countries and deter Iran.

“These countries are all US partners, and they recognise that there is no framework that can replace the United States,” Yasmine Farouk, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

Farouk added that it would also be a mistake to see the pact as a step towards greater confrontation with Iran.

She noted that all three countries involved have generally called for mediation and de-escalation since the US and Israel first launched their attacks on Iran in late February.

“What these countries have in common is that they are not seeking regional escalation,” she said, underscoring that the importance of the agreement might be something closer to “normative deterrence”.

Iran, she explained, has emerged from the war hardened and more confident in its ability to use force to advance its goals.

“There is a long-term perspective here on strategic cooperation, not just a deterrent effect.”