Iran

United States President Donald Trump declared that the agreement pausing the war with Iran was over this week – and ordered a series of strikes.

He accused Iranian forces of violating the ceasefire by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran was quick to respond, targeting US interests in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.

The escalation was the worst since the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding last month.

It was meant to pave the way to more talks and a permanent deal to end the war.

Now regional mediators are working to ease the tension.

But does diplomacy still stand a chance?

Presenter: Per Nyberg

Guests:

Hakimeh Saghaye-Biria – Assistant professor at the University of Tehran

Salman Shaikh – Founder of The Shaikh Group, a peacebuilding organisation

Kirsten Fontenrose – Non-resident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council

The prospects for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran have reached the most perilous point since the two warring parties agreed to a ceasefire in April. A day after ordering the most intense wave of airstrikes on Iran since that agreement went into effect, President Donald Trump on Wednesday proclaimed that he could resume striking Iran as early as tonight and restore the naval blockade after saying he believed the ceasefire was over.

His comments came after Iran attacked tanker ships in the Strait of Hormuz. There were also unconfirmed reports that Iran fired missiles and drones at U.S. warships.

You can read about yesterday’s exchange of fire in our story here.

Meanwhile, Iranian official media declared that the Memorandum of Understanding extending the ceasefire for 60 days to continue negotiations, worked out in Pakistan, is no longer in effect.

“The Islamabad Agreement is Dead,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-connected Tasnim media outlet stated on Telegram. 

This latest and most serious flare-up of tensions came after Iran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, as we reported. The attacks came during a pause in negotiations for the week-long funeral procession for the former Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the U.S.-Israeli attacks.

In response to those attacks, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it hit 85 targets across southern Iran, including “air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in and near the strait to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor.”

Wednesday morning, Trump amped up the rhetoric during several bilateral meetings at the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey.

“We hit them very hard last night — very, very hard — and we’ll probably hit them hard again tonight,” Trump proffered. “They’re cuckoo. There’s something wrong with these people. For 47 years, they’ve been the bully of the Middle East… It’s very simple: they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump also shed additional light on yesterday’s attacks by CENTCOM.

“We attacked Kharg Island last night, knocked out a piece,” Trump stated. “I said, ‘Don’t touch the oil, because maybe we’ll take over Kharg Island.’ We may take over Kharg Island. It’s not a thing they can do about it, but I said, ‘Don’t hit the pipes, just hit everything else,’ and they hit it. They may hit it again tonight.”

You can read about what it would take to attack Kharg Island in our story here.

Trump also hinted that the naval blockade on Iran, lifted when the MoU was signed on June 17, might be resumed.

“And we may put down the blockade,” the American leader suggested. “We may put it back… and it will only be a blockade for Iran.” 

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the Pentagon was prepared to resume attacks at an even higher level.

“Anything used to harass shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Anything they thought they had rebuilt or capability they were using was a target last night—and tonight, if we need to, on your order, Mr. President, we will hit even more, and even deeper,” he said.

All this came after Trump professed that the ceasefire had ended.

“To me, I think it’s over,” Trump exclaimed. “I don’t want to deal with them, but they’re scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum, they’re sick people, they’re led by sick people, and they’re vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it.”

Iran, for its part, said that it struck 85 targets in Kuwait and Bahrain after the U.S. attacks.

Kuwaiti officials said they downed all the missiles and drones fired at them.

A U.S. official told us that damage to American facilities in the region was minimal.

“Regarding last night: No U.S. injuries. All missiles and drones fired by Iran were intercepted or failed to hit anything or cause major damage,” said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. “Bottom line, Iran’s response was defeated.”

As for the future of negotiations, as we noted earlier in this story, Iran is also painting a grim picture.

“Trump, the self-proclaimed terrorist, officially announced the end of the Islamabad Agreement; an agreement that, although earnestly pursued by Iranian negotiators who emphasized the continuation of the struggle and acknowledged that dishonesty is inherent in the United States, was from the beginning clearly understood to be an agreement that would not be honored by the Americans, especially if Iran insisted on its rights,” Tasnim stated. “Trump and the terrorist U.S. government failed to implement the most important clause of the agreement, Clause 1, from the very beginning. Despite the efforts of officials, this agreement was essentially dead from the start, due to the Americans’ broken promises, and only last night was its death officially announced.”

Aside from taking swipes at Iran, Trump also lashed out at Spain for failing to allow the U.S. to have access to its airspace during Operation Epic Fury. The U.S. has several key military installations there, including Naval Station Rota and Moron Air Base. Both facilities had been used as staging grounds ahead of the attack on Iran.

“Spain is a terrible partner in NATO,” Trump complained at a news conference in Ankara with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. “They don’t participate. They don’t pay. I don’t want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain, please, including visits.”

Meanwhile, Rutte noted that Spain was an outlier when it came to supporting the U.S. war.

“I would say these are isolated cases; 5000 planes taking off from European airports in support of Epic Fury, it was Europe as one, big platform of power projection for the United States helping with Epic Fury,” Rutte explained.

As we have frequently seen since Operation Epic Fury was launched, tough talk from Trump or the Iranians does not always translate into action and things can and have quickly changed. Still, given what is at stake, we will continue to monitor this situation and provide updates when warranted.

UPDATE: 2:05 PM EDT –

Despite all these harsh statements from both sides, one former CENTCOM commander tells us that a resumption of full-scale hostilities is not inevitable.

“I think the immediate way forward will be controlled escalation focused on a military campaign to degrade the regime’s ability to disrupt activities in the Gulf,” Joseph Votel, who led the command from March 2016 to March 2019, told us. “The targets struck last evening seem to support this and I suspect this is where we are heading.”

“I would expect, as the President said, that we will reimpose the blockade against ships transiting to and from Iranian ports,” added Votel, now a Distinguished Military Fellow at the Middle East Institute. “I think this is what we will see for the next few days until there is greater clarification on where all this is leading.”

The future, however, remains uncertain.

“I don’t know if there is an immediate off-ramp – the next day or two will tell us that,” Votel surmised. “If we strike tonight – that may lead to Iranian counter-strikes against U.S. partners hosting American forces. I think Iran will continue to try to impose costs on us by disrupting the Strait and targeting of Gulf nations that support us.”

As for the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), Votel said: “I think we will see (at least in the short term) control of the SoH to be similar to what we saw before the signing of the June 17th MOU – the U.S. largely in control but with Iran continuing to periodically disrupt and impact shipping and commerce.”

Meanwhile, a high-ranking Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) official we spoke with said a resumption of full-blown hostilities or Israel carrying out a new wave of attacks is not a foregone conclusion.

“My assessment is that the current ceasefire is fragile, but I do not believe we are on the verge of a return to full-scale war,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. “Despite President Trump’s recent remarks, I think his preferred course of action will be to restore and tighten economic sanctions while preserving the option of limited, targeted military strikes against specific Iranian assets if necessary. I do not believe the United States has a strategic interest in becoming involved in another prolonged military campaign unless Iran fundamentally changes the situation through a major escalation.”

The official added that the IDF is ready to resume attacks on Iran if called upon, but that whether it will be remains unknown.

“The IDF itself is not the limiting factor. Israel remains highly prepared, and the military retains credible operational options across the region,” said the official. “Readiness, however, should not be confused with intent. Military capability exists regardless of whether the political leadership decides to employ it.”

“Ultimately, I believe the decisive variable is Washington rather than Jerusalem,” he added. “Any major Israeli operation against Iran would almost certainly require at least tacit American political support and close strategic coordination with the United States. For that reason, I have greater confidence in assessing Netanyahu’s preferences than in predicting President Trump’s decisions.”

Trump “has demonstrated that he is capable of taking decisive military action when he believes it serves American interests, but he has also shown that he is pragmatic and willing to halt escalation when he concludes that continued conflict no longer advances those interests,” the IDF official postulated.

“In short, my expectation is that the near-term strategy will be one of deterrence rather than renewed war: tighter economic pressure on Iran, continued intelligence and covert activities, and the option of limited military strikes if required,” the official continued. “A return to a broad regional conflict remains possible, but in my view it would most likely require a significant Iranian escalation rather than being initiated by either Washington or Jerusalem.”

UPDATE: 5:30 PM EDT –

The U.S. has resumed striking Iran as Trump said he would, according to CENTCOM.

“At the direction of the Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” the command stated on X. “The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.”

At the direction of the Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 8, 2026

Videos purporting to show those attacks are emerging online.

Video footage shows the moment that U.S. strikes targeted Chabahar City in Southern Iran earlier tonight, with the strikes reportedly impacting an air and naval base operated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). pic.twitter.com/AwXdsgGnXC

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 8, 2026

As the ongoing U.S. strikes against Iran have already exceeded the scale of last night’s strikes, a U.S. official has told Reuters that the strikes will indeed be greater in scale and number than previous waves of U.S. strikes. The U.S. targeting of an IRGC barracks in Bushehr is… pic.twitter.com/4oTqMUYCLw

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 8, 2026

UPDATE: 5:51 PM EDT –

“This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “If it happens again, it will get much worse!”

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

The U.S. Embassy in Jordan on Thursday warned Americans about “missiles, drones, or rockets…in Jordanian airspace.” The warning came as the U.S. and Iran reportedly exchanged fire amid resumed hostilities that have entered a third day. This latest round of fighting was touched off Tuesday when Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump and Iranian officials declared that the shaky ceasefire agreed to on April 8 was over.

“Seek overhead cover and shelter in place immediately,” the U.S. Embassy in Jordan cautioned this morning. “Remain indoors and pay attention to local announcements and alerts. The U.S. Embassy in Jordan will continue to review the situation and provide additional information as needed.”

The Jordan Armed Forces-Arab Army (JAF) General Command said the country’s air defense systems “intercepted and shot down eight missiles launched from Iran toward Jordanian territory on Thursday. The interception operations resulted in the fall of missile debris, but no casualties or property damage were reported.”

“JAF is closely monitoring regional developments and remains at the highest level of operational readiness to safeguard the Kingdom’s airspace and defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the command added. “JAF will not allow any party to violate Jordanian airspace under any circumstances.”

Iranian officials say US strikes across Bushehr province damaged civilian infrastructure, including areas near the Bushehr nuclear power plant, airports, logistical facilities and fishing wharfs where several fishing boats caught fire. The US says strikes were aimed at military targets.

Iran said on Thursday it had targeted U.S. military infrastructure across the Gulf in retaliation for fresh American strikes on Iranian territory, marking the latest escalation in a conflict that is increasingly testing a fragile ceasefire brokered just weeks ago.

The renewed exchange of attacks came as Iran prepared to bury its late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the holy city of Mashhad following a week of nationwide funeral processions.

Although oil prices eased after surging on fears of wider disruption, investors and governments remained focused on whether the latest violence represented a temporary escalation or the beginning of a broader collapse of efforts to end the conflict.

Iran retaliates after U.S. strikes

Iranian armed forces said they targeted U.S. military facilities in neighbouring Gulf states after American forces struck military infrastructure across Iran’s southern coast and eastern provinces.

According to Iranian officials quoted by state media, the latest U.S. attacks killed 14 people and wounded 78 others across five provinces on July 8 and 9.

The semi-official Fars news agency reported that one strike hit a railway bridge used for trade links with Russia and China.

Explosions were also reported on Thursday morning in Bushehr province, home to Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant, though authorities did not immediately provide details on the cause.

Gulf military installations targeted

Iran’s military said it launched drone and missile attacks against several U.S.-linked military facilities across the Gulf region.

According to Iranian state media, the targets included:

• U.S. Patriot missile systems in Kuwait
• An early-warning installation in Qatar
• A U.S. military fuel storage facility in Bahrain

Kuwaiti authorities said their air defences intercepted a cruise missile, three ballistic missiles and ten drones. Officials reported one person was injured by falling debris.

Qatar, which hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, called for restraint and urged all sides to return to diplomatic negotiations.

During a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani also condemned attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of tensions

The latest military confrontation follows attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.

The U.S. military said Wednesday’s strikes were designed to protect international navigation after blaming Iran for attacks on three commercial vessels.

Although Tehran has not officially claimed responsibility for those attacks, analysts say Iran has increasingly used pressure around the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in negotiations with Washington.

Before the war began in late February, roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies passed through the narrow waterway.

Iran has since exercised significant control over maritime traffic in the strait, giving it considerable strategic influence over global energy markets.

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said American forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets.

According to CENTCOM, the operation targeted:

• Air defence systems
• Coastal surveillance infrastructure
• Missile and drone storage facilities
• Naval assets
• Military logistics centres along Iran’s coastline

“The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway,” CENTCOM said.

President Donald Trump defended the operation on Wednesday, writing on Truth Social: “This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse.”

Trump says ceasefire agreement is effectively over

While attending the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump said he believed the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran to halt the fighting had effectively collapsed.

Asked whether the agreement remained in force, Trump replied:”It’s a very interesting question. To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them.”

He later added that even if another agreement were reached, he doubted Tehran would honour it.

Despite the renewed military exchanges, Trump said he did not expect the confrontation to develop into another prolonged war.

“Anything that happens is going to be over very quickly… and will only make it safer, including for oil,” he told reporters.

Iran vows continued retaliation

Iranian officials condemned the latest U.S. military operation as another breach of understandings reached after the ceasefire.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned Washington that future attacks would receive a military response.

“The U.S. has yet to learn that bullying and breaking its commitments no longer come without a cost,” he wrote on social media.

“The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened only under Iranian arrangements, not through U.S. threats.”

Oil markets remain on edge

Oil prices retreated on Thursday after jumping sharply a day earlier, as traders assessed whether the latest fighting would significantly disrupt Gulf energy exports.

Shipping also remains under close watch.

One of the vessels struck this week the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat remains stranded off Oman after suffering an engine-room fire following a projectile strike.

Industry sources said its liquefied natural gas cargo appears secure and that the immediate risk of explosion remains low.

Future outlook

The latest exchange of strikes has significantly weakened confidence in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, even if neither side appears ready for a return to full-scale war.

Attention is now focused on whether further attacks occur around the Strait of Hormuz, where any prolonged disruption could quickly tighten global energy supplies and drive oil prices higher.

Diplomatic efforts led by Gulf states are likely to intensify, but Trump’s declaration that the interim agreement is “over” and Iran’s vow to continue retaliating have raised doubts over whether negotiations can still produce a lasting settlement.

With information from Reuters.

The late supreme leader will be buried in his hometown, the eastern holy city of Mashhad.

Huge crowds have gathered in the eastern holy city of Mashhad as Iran prepares to bury its slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The burial in Khamenei’s hometown on Thursday follows a week of mass funeral processions, rallies and mourning ceremonies held across Iran, including a day dedicated to neighbouring Iraq.

There were marathon ceremonies to project strength and unity amid the US-Israel war on Iran, which began with strikes by the two countries on Tehran that killed Khamenei and several of his relatives on February 28.

Despite a promised pause in US attacks, Khamenei’s burial ceremony comes after the US and Iran traded attacks for a second day.

After massive processions in Iraq’s holy cities of Najaf and Karbala, Khamenei’s remains arrived on Thursday at Mashhad international airport, footage shared by the official news agency IRNA showed.

Iraq’s paramilitary group Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), or Hashd al-Shaabi, said on Wednesday more than 2.3 million people took part in Khamenei’s funeral procession in Najaf alone.

Khamenei’s remains, along with those of four family members killed alongside him, were also paraded through Tehran and the Shia clerical centre of Qom.

The Tasnim news agency and the broadcaster Press TV reported that millions of mourners attended the funeral procession in Tehran, with Iranian officials describing the event as the “largest public gathering in the country’s modern history”.

Crowds marched through Mashhad on Thursday morning, waving Iranian flags, photographs of Khamenei and placards with revolutionary slogans.

The mourners also chanted slogans demanding vengeance against US President Donald Trump for his role in the assassination.

“I swear by the blood of the supreme leader, Trump, we will kill you,” they shouted, with women holding up placards reading “Kill Trump”.

The incumbent supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been notably absent from the processions. He has not yet appeared in public since taking over days after his father’s assassination.

Officials have said he was wounded in the air strikes that killed his father, but the severity of his injuries remains unclear.

Iranian state television reported that Khamenei’s burial ceremony in Mashhad would be pushed to 2:30pm local time (11:00 GMT) as larger-than-expected crowds had delayed the funeral processions in Iraq.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas said Iranian officials had confirmed that the overnight US attacks on the Tehran-Mashhad railway line, which have put it out of service, had not delayed the burial ceremony.

Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, head of the late leader’s office, said Khamenei had requested to be buried in Mashhad, near the shrine of Imam Reza, a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad.

The US military says it has struck 90 targets across Iran, hitting ports and infrastructure along the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says at least 14 people have been killed in two nights of attacks, and that it has responded with drone strikes on US-linked sites in the Gulf region.

The United States and Iran have traded attacks for a second day, straining their fragile ceasefire further after US President Donald Trump said the truce was “over”.

The US military said late on Wednesday that the attacks were aimed at Iran’s “ability to threaten the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz”.

The US struck approximately 90 military targets, including missile and drone storage as well as logistics sites along Iran’s coastline, said the Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees US military operations in the Middle East.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump called the US attacks “retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!”

The latest attacks come a day after the US said it hit more than 80 targets in Iran in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday it carried out attacks on “key infrastructure and facilities” at bases used by the US military in Arifjan and Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, and Juffair and Sheikh Isa in Bahrain in response to the latest US bombardment.

The Iranian army later said its forces targeted a Patriot missile system in Kuwait, a satellite antenna in Qatar and US military fuel depots in Bahrain.

Kuwait’s Ministry of Defence said it was intercepting missiles and drones, while Qatar issued an “elevated security threat” alert.

The renewed fighting threatens to undermine a memorandum of understanding (MoU) the two sides agreed last month to extend an April ceasefire and gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.

The attacks come a day after Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “over” and criticised the Iranian leadership. However, he left the door open to more talks and suggested that any strikes would end quickly.

Speaking to reporters on board Air Force One as he travelled back to the US after attending the NATO summit in Turkiye, Trump said the Iranian side had “called a little while ago” and that they wanted “to make a deal so badly”.

US attacks across Iran

US strikes hit a railway bridge in Iran’s northeast, according to several official media, and the news agency IRNA reported strikes on a military base in coastal Bushehr, which hosts the nation’s only civilian nuclear power plant.

The Iranian railway (IRIR) said the train service on the Tehran-Mashhad line had been temporarily suspended as a result.

It said technical teams were on site to repair the damaged section so that the rail service could resume as soon as possible, adding that buses had been arranged to transport affected passengers.

Warplanes hovered over Iran’s Kish Island, and explosions rocked the port cities of Bandar Abbas, Konarak and Chabahar, part of which lost electricity, IRNA reported.

At least three people were killed in an attack on the outskirts of Ahvaz, capital of the southwestern province of Khuzestan, IRNA reported, citing the deputy governor of the region.

At least one firefighter was killed in an attack on an airport facility in Iranshahr, IRNA reported.

Iran’s Health Ministry said at least 14 people were killed and 78 others injured over the past two days.

Calls for diplomacy

In mid-June, the US and Iran signed an MoU to extend their ceasefire. It also led to the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iran and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The MoU came following mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, which served as a launch point for 60 days of talks on more intractable issues, including the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, the administration of the Strait of Hormuz and access to billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.

Since US-Israeli strikes triggered war in February, Tehran has effectively blocked the strait, threatening to hit vessels that deviate from its authorised route.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas said the US and Iran are “stuck in an equation – almost a deadlock” over the Strait of Hormuz.

“For the Americans, they say that Iran will not have control over the Strait of Hormuz. For the Iranians, control of the strait is indispensable.”

He said Iran sees control over the strait as the “ultimate deterrent, and if it gives that up, then it loses its negotiating position” with the US.

The US hopes that by targeting infrastructure that affects Iran’s ability to control the strait, including maritime traffic control centres, it will be forced to “return to the MoU”, Scott Uehlinger, a former senior CIA officer, told Al Jazeera.

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres called “on all parties to exercise maximum restraint”, as did Pakistan.

Qatari ⁠Prime ⁠Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani told Iranian Foreign ⁠Minister Abbas Araghchi in a phone ⁠call on Thursday that Iran and the US should commit to diplomacy.

Sheikh Mohammed, who is also the foreign minister, said Washington and Tehran should implement the MoU to end the war.

Iran said the two officials had spoken over the phone and “underscored the importance of using diplomatic means to resolve regional issues”.

July 9 (UPI) — Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said early Thursday that it has launched attacks targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, hours after U.S. Central Command announced the completion of its attacks against Iran.

The tit-for-tat strikes follow President Donald Trump a day prior saying the cease-fire agreement between Washington and Tehran was all but over, and threatened the return to all-out war in the Middle East.

Fighting had simmered between the two sides following last month’s agreement to conditions that could lead to an end of the war, but the Strait of Hormuz has proved a sticking point. The Trump administration is demanding a return to freedom of navigation through the chokepoint; Iran is seeking to maintain control over the vita energy transit route.

As negotiations were stalling, three commercial vessels were struck while transiting the strait, resulting in the United States attacking Iran early Wednesday, kicking off the continuing retaliatory strikes as Iran appears unrelenting in its oversight of the Strait of Hormuz.

“America still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free. Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you’ll get hit,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a social media statement early Thursday.

“Don’t flail around pointlessly, or you’ll sink ever deeper: the Strait of Hormuz will only open with ‘Iranian arrangements,’ not American threats.”

The IRGC said it had not only attacked but “smashed important infrastructure and facilities” at Arifjan and Ali Al Salem bases in Kuwait and Juffair and Sheikh Isa bases in Bahrain.

State-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that Iran early Tuesday was attacking U.S. bases from Bushehr city, stating the United States had targeted those assets hours earlier.

The state broadcaster also claimed the U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain was also hit.

The extent of potential damage was not immediately clear, but both Kuwait and Bahrain confirmed incoming attacks.

The elite military unit in charge of protecting the Islamic regime warned that the United States that “should it repeat its aggression, our crushing responses will expand to other American bases in the region,” it said.

The attack came as the U.S. Central Command announced that it had completed strikes against Iran late Wednesday.

CENTCOM said late Wednesday that it had completed strikes against about 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems and coastal surveillance assets, were hit. The announced follower an earlier round of U.S. attacks overnight Tuesday that struck about 80 targets in Iran.

WASHINGTON — A tentative armistice between the United States and Iran reached less than a month ago appeared all but dead Wednesday after the two sides traded fresh military strikes, and as President Trump directed further attacks on the Islamic Republic.

The escalation marked a dramatic turn after the Trump administration spent weeks selling a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran that proved controversial across the political aisle, lifting oil sanctions and a naval blockade on Iran in exchange for the promise of talks over the status of the Strait of Hormuz and its decades-old nuclear program.

Now, speaking to reporters at the NATO summit in Turkey, Trump said he believed the truce — which diplomats describe as a memorandum of understanding — was “over” and that it was a “waste of time” dealing with Iranian leadership.

“They’re scum. They’re sick people,” Trump said of Iranian leaders, whom he had characterized last month as “very rational people” and “very nice to deal with.”

The president’s dim views of the ceasefire agreement’s fate were shared by Iran’s foreign ministry, which issued a statement on Wednesday saying the American attacks, the reinstatement of a U.S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel’s continuing attacks in Lebanon rendered “important and fundamental” parts of the deal “ineffective.”

The truce’s unraveling was underscored by Trump ordering the U.S. military to launch a series of strikes against Iran on Wednesday afternoon to “further degrade their ability to threaten” the commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway,” U.S. Central Command said in a statement on social media.

Earlier in the day, Trump signaled that the United States planned to “hit them hard” and floated the possibility of taking over Kharg Island, which is vital to Iran’s economy. His remarks quickly prompted oil prices to rise and global stock markets to fall, a worry that Trump acknowledged but which did not seem to sway his decision-making in relation to Iran.

“If we hit Iran, oil goes up a little bit, it is all right,” Trump said. He later added that the United States may “do some other thing that could lift it a little bit, but I don’t think it’s gonna lift it a lot at all.”

As Trump signals the continuation of fighting, his administration has been seeking more than $67 billion in funding to cover expenses related to the Iran war, a request that Congress has not yet approved as lawmakers have been split over the president’s handling of the conflict.

“The American people are paying the price for Trump’s total failure in Iran,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement Wednesday. “Our troops are back in harm’s way and high gas costs are continuing to punish working families.”

The president’s stance on the war marked the latest setback to a fragile truce that has barely held since the 14-page agreement was signed June 17, as the U.S. and Iran engaged over the last few weeks in cycles of attacks and counterattacks.

Trump was noticeably angrier at Iran on Wednesday as he cast doubt over the deal. Last month, Trump had complimented Iranian leadership for trying to reach a peace deal and celebrated the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for the world’s oil and gas. But based on his remarks, it was clear he was out of patience.

“I am not happy with them,” Trump said. “They’re cuckoo. There’s something wrong with these people. For 47 years, they’ve been the bully of the Middle East and they are not the bully anymore. They are not the bully anymore.”

Trump expressed frustration with Iran’s negotiators and their resistance to abiding by U.S. demands to reopen the strait. When asked if he intended to send troops to Iran, the president dismissed the idea.

“Why would I go in now?” Trump said. “I’d go in when they’re completely eliminated or an agreement is made.”

Still, the president kept the door open for negotiations, saying that his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner “want to negotiate.”

“They’re good people, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, but they have to come back to me,” Trump said. “As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with [the Iranians]. They’re liars.”

The latest breakdown to the ceasefire followed a now-familiar chain reaction of tit-for-tat attacks, starting with a series of strikes on three oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, including a Qatari vessel carrying natural gas, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center.

The Qatari tanker was off the coast of Oman when it was hit and caught fire, the maritime monitor said, in what experts say was a move to thwart ships attempting to use an alternate transit route to the one Iran specified. Iran did not claim responsibility, but a report on Iranian state television said the Qatari tanker came under attack after ignoring warnings to turn back.

The two other vessels were damaged but were able to continue to their destination, according to the U.K. group.

Qatar, which has played a vital role in facilitating negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, condemned the attack on its tanker as “unacceptable.”

The U.S. responded with a wave of strikes against more than 80 Iranian targets aimed at “impos[ing] heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway,” according to a statement from U.S. Central Command. That tally included roughly 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in the strait.

Iranian state media said U.S. strikes targeted Sirik, Qeshm Island and Bushehr and Bandar Abbas, while a U.S. drone strike on the port city of Mahshahr killed one Revolutionary Guard member.

Ahead of the strikes, the White House revoked the 60-day temporary license given to Tehran to sell and deliver oil during the truce.

Iran’s military countered with its own strikes on 85 U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait; it also shot down an MQ-9 drone, according to a statement on Wednesday.

Kuwait said its military intercepted two ballistic missiles and 13 drones, but that none had resulted in material damage or casualties.

Global oil prices surged 6% on news of Trump’s reversal on the deal, rising to more than $78 a barrel, down from the peak during the war but still above prewar levels.

The renewed violence appeared to have little effect on the funeral for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike on Feb. 28, in the war’s opening hours.

The funeral, a days-long period of mourning, is set to end on Thursday, when Khamenei’s body will return from Iraq to be buried in the city of Mashhad, his birthplace. Negotiations were to begin once more.

In his remarks Wednesday, Trump said Iranian leaders had asked for a “timeout” to attend the funeral, and that he had promised not to kill them.

“And I said give it to them, and they start shooting missiles,” Trump said.

Whether those talks — which were meant to deal with the thorniest issues between the two countries, including the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program — will go ahead remains unclear. Iran, for its part, maintained a defiant attitude.

“The era of bullying and extortion is over,” wrote Mohammad Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker. “It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.”

Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to the supreme leader, posted on X that Trump’s policy had “driven the region towards fire.”

“We had previously warned that the region is not a place for the political gambling of small countries, and we have repeatedly proven that adventures are met with an immediate response,” he wrote.

He added that the Axis of Resistance — a reference to Iran’s network of allied groups in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen — would not be “silent against humiliation and adventurism” and has “its finger on the trigger.”

Bulos reported from Beirut and Ceballos from Washington.

July 8 (UPI) — The U.S. military resumed attacks against Iran on Wednesday afternoon “to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” U.S. Central Command said.

“The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway,” the statement continued.

U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking at a news conference at the end of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, said the United States would resume its naval blockade of Iran. He said further negotiations were “a waste of time” and added “Let’s just finish the job.”

Trump had earlier characterized the resumed strikes as “a little warning,” and said, “We’re going to hit them hard tonight, but we’ll see how it all works out.”

Iranian media reported explosions in the cities of Bandar Abbas and Sirik, which the United States also struck Tuesday, and in the cities of Chabahar and Konarak on Iran’s southern coast. Sources said Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant did not sustain any damage.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that the Pentagon would strike Iran “even more and even deeper” if Trump said the word.

Earlier Wednesday, Trump called Iran’s leaders “scum” and “vicious, violent people.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that addressing Iran with “derogatory language” does not diminish it.

“Iranians are known for their civility, culture and strong moral values,” he said in a social media post. “We do not answer vulgarity with vulgarity, but with action: fearlessly and with great valor.”

Tuesday’s attacks lasted about four hours and struck more than 80 targets, U.S. Central Command said. The attacks came after Iran attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States also reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales in retaliation for the attacks. Iran said the sanctions were “in clear violation” of the memorandum of understanding to end the conflict between Iran and the United States that was signed in June.

WASHINGTON — President Trump flew home from a NATO summit in Turkey on an old baby blue Air Force One plane instead of the new Qatari-gifted and retrofitted red, white and navy blue jet he arrived in, a surprise swap that came as the U.S. and Iran once again began trading strikes.

Trump offered little clarity on the swap, instead saying he would fly on the legacy aircraft “for old time’s sake,” and indicating that both aircraft would make a previously unscheduled stop on the way back to the U.S. at Royal Air Force Mildenhall, a base used by U.S. troops.

The travel switch raised fresh security questions about the new aircraft that the U.S. spent $400 million to retrofit. Images of the Qatari-gifted jet captured since its unveiling show it is not equipped with some of the same missile detection and countermeasure systems as the older jets.

The swap was also announced less than a day after the U.S. military conducted a series of large strikes in Iran in retaliation for its attacks on merchant shipping in the region. Iran shares a border with Turkey.

Trump first announced in a social media post that the gleaming new plane he had proudly shown off a day earlier would instead visit the U.K. base on the way home so military members could “tour the Aircraft.” Trump said he instead would be flying home in an older plane previously used as Air Force One.

When asked later during a news conference if security concerns had played a role in the switch, Trump didn’t directly answer but said that when it came to Iran, he was “No. 1 on the list for killing.”

When another reporter followed up, Trump said he’d be “going home by normal methods” while the new plane would be shown off to troops.

When asked if the missing countermeasures systems played a role in the jet being swapped out, the U.S. Air Force directed questions to the White House.

“The new Air Force One is a state-of-the-art aircraft that has been fitted with high-level security protocols that ensure the safety of the President and his staff,” spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement. “As the President has said recently, there are many enemies of America who have their sights on him, and we use every tool at our disposal— including distraction and misdirection— to address those threats.”

Trump departed Turkey aboard one of the older Boeing VC-25As that have carried presidents for three and a half decades. Consumer flight trackers were unable to monitor its transponder early in the flight after takeoff, suggesting it had been temporarily disabled by the crew — a security measure used when ferrying the president to and from high-risk environments like war zones, not a major NATO ally hosting a long-scheduled summit.

Other world leaders’ flights departed with trackable transponders, including those from Germany and the U.K.

The luxurious Boeing 747-800 gifted by Qatar, that was modified to carry Trump, departed earlier Wednesday from Turkey and landed at RAF Mildenhall on Wednesday afternoon, flight trackers showed.

Iran has several missiles and drones in its inventory with enough range to make the roughly 800-mile flight from its own borders to Turkey, including some of its Shahed drones and Shahab ballistic missiles.

However, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Iran does not possess weaponry that would be capable of effectively striking England at a range of roughly 2,500 miles.

The U.S. Air Force, which oversees the running of the fleet of aircraft used by every president, had previously said that they had to prioritize making only some of the necessary upgrades and changes in order to deliver the Qatari jet — also known as the “bridge” aircraft — into service.

The Air Force argued that the rapid conversion of the jet was done “without accepting any risk regarding security, safety, or secure communications,” but did concede that “several highly complex engineering modifications required for the final (Air Force One aircraft) were intentionally excluded from the Bridge aircraft.”

Jeremiah Gertler, a senior analyst for Teal Group, an aviation and defense consulting firm, previously told The Associated Press that the absence of countermeasure systems, as well as a seemingly smaller number of communications antennas, suggested that the Qatari jet was better suited to only work as a domestic aircraft.

Trump’s first flight on the new Qatari jet was to North Dakota last week.

The original Air Force One planes were built from scratch near the end of the Cold War and they were hardened against the effects of a nuclear blast and included a range of security features, such as anti-missile countermeasures and an onboard operating room.

The jets are also equipped with air-to-air refueling capabilities for contingencies, though it has never been utilized with a president on board.

The pair of Boeing jets that are currently being modified to act as the permanent upgrades to the Air Force One jets have been delayed, and are expected to be delivered in 2028.

Price and Toropin write for the Associated Press. AP writer Zeke Miller contributed to this report.

On Tuesday, two tankers were attacked as they transited the Strait of Hormuz via a passage in Omani waters. Gulf countries responded by sharply condemning the attacks and blaming Iran. The United States then launched attacks on Iranian territory, to which Tehran responded by striking Bahrain and Kuwait. US President Donald Trump has now said the memorandum of understanding (MoU) that Iran and the US signed is void.

This latest escalation illustrates how the Strait of Hormuz has become the central issue in the US-Israel war with Iran that began on February 28. Disagreements over the strait’s future have proven to be the hardest to resolve in the US-Iranian negotiations, as questions about Iran’s nuclear programme have been put to the side.

The disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has an immediate and costly price tag attached, for Iran, for its Gulf neighbours, and for a global economy that has spent four and a half months absorbing the largest oil supply shock in the history of the modern market.

Iran’s leverage is also its liability

For Tehran, the strait is its strongest card – one that is also incredibly costly. Since the war began, Iranian forces have mined the strait, attacked vessels and cut traffic through the passage by roughly 95 percent. This has led to what the International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol has called “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.

That leverage is real: about a fifth of the world’s oil and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) normally move through Hormuz, and no amount of Gulf pipeline capacity can fully replace it.

But Iran has effectively been strangling its own lifeline along with everyone else’s. Iranian crude, once sold for $3 a barrel less than international benchmarks, is now selling at a 20 percent discount. The country’s oil exports collapsed by more than 90 percent in May as US naval enforcement squeezed its shadow fleet.

Even before the war, the World Bank projected that Iran’s economy would contract in 2026. The impact of the collapse of oil sales will be far-reaching because of the closure.

A 60-day US Treasury waiver issued on June 22, permitting Iran to sell oil at full market rates through August 21, but has now been renounced following the attacks on Tuesday.

This is the economic backdrop to Iran’s insistence on asserting joint authority over the strait and floating a system of transit fees or “service charges” for passing ships. Washington has made clear that Iran cannot charge tolls in international waters governed by the right of transit passage under the Law of the Sea.

For Tehran, the dispute is not really about toll revenue, which would be rather modest when compared to its oil income; it is about establishing precedent and sovereignty over a chokepoint that is its only real point of leverage once sanctions relief and frozen-asset release are negotiated.

The latter is itself contested: Iran wants half of an estimated $25bn in frozen assets released immediately, while the US has resisted. A separate $300bn reconstruction fund floated in the MoU has already become a political flashpoint in Washington.

The Gulf is paying for a crisis it didn’t start

For the Gulf states, the Strait of Hormuz crisis has meant improvising around geography. Saudi Arabia has redirected crude through its roughly 1,200km (746-mile) East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the UAE has leaned on the Habshan-to-Fujairah line to the Gulf of Oman.

Together, though, these pipelines carry a fraction of what Hormuz once did, at best 7 million barrels a day of design capacity for the Saudi line and under 1.8 million for the Emirati one, against roughly 20 million barrels a day that transited the strait before the war.

Both alternatives have themselves come under attack: Iranian strikes cut the East-West pipeline’s throughput by an estimated 700,000 barrels a day in April, and drone attacks disrupted loading at Fujairah. Seaborne crude exports from Gulf states excluding Iran fell by roughly half between February and March.

Qatar, host to the talks between Iran and the US, has its own acute stake: its entire LNG export industry depends on the Strait of Hormuz, and it has been pushing the hardest for a settlement.

Oman, drawn into Iran’s sovereignty claim as co-owner of the strait’s territorial waters, is caught between commercial interest in a resolution and a legal position, as a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) that publicly rejects Iranian tolls. Iraq, highly dependent on its Gulf terminals, has quietly explored an export route north through Turkiye.

None of these workarounds are cheap, and all of them are political as well as commercial, tying Gulf capitals’ economic fortunes to a settlement between the US and Iran.

The rest of the world: Insurance bills and inflation

Beyond the region, the crisis has been transmitted mainly through two channels: price and insurance. Higher oil prices are passed on to various consumer goods down supply chains and suppress growth. According to estimates, the global economy can slow down to 2.8 percent in 2026 from 3.4 percent last year due to the closure of the strait.

Insurance for Hormuz transit, which cost roughly 0.25 percent of a vessel’s value before the war, has spiked as high as 8 percent, turning a single large tanker’s coverage into a $3m-to-$8m expense. Shipping lines including CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have layered on conflict surcharges of $1,500 to $2,000 per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU). Washington’s own International Development Finance Corporation has had to step in as, in effect, an insurer of last resort, offering up to $40bn in reinsurance capacity to keep vessels moving.

China has absorbed the largest share of this pain: It takes close to 40 percent of its crude imports through the Strait of Hormuz and buys more than 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports outright, making it simultaneously Tehran’s most important customer and one of the war’s most exposed bystanders. Japan, which sources 70 percent of its Middle Eastern crude via the strait, has already tapped strategic reserves.

For import-dependent economies across Asia and Europe, the strait’s fate is not an abstraction of Middle East diplomacy; it shows up directly in fuel, freight and fertiliser prices.

Oil and gas dominate the headlines, but roughly 30 percent of the world’s seaborne fertiliser trade also passes through Hormuz.

The World Bank’s fertiliser price index has risen more than 12 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and has since climbed to its highest level since October 2022, driven largely by the closure. The Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that the resulting scarcity of urea and other nitrogen products will show up as lower yields through the 2026–2027 growing season, hitting import-dependent and already food-insecure countries in Africa and Asia the hardest.

Unlike an oil-price spike, which mainly stings at the pump, a fertiliser shortfall reaches into next year’s harvest, meaning an unresolved Hormuz standoff carries a slower-moving but longer tail of economic damage than crude prices alone suggest.

That is the arithmetic weighing on both sides. A deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz without resolving who controls it risks recreating the same instability that shut it in the first place; one that concedes Iranian toll authority risks a precedent Washington and shipping nations will not accept. Until that circle is squared, the global economy is left pricing in a chokepoint that neither side can fully afford to keep closed, nor fully agree how to reopen.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.

ANKARA, Turkey — President Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. will give a license to Ukraine to manufacture Patriot air defense systems to help counter Russian missile attacks, a huge coup for Ukraine which has badly needed the technology for the war now in its fifth year.

“We’ll give them the right to make Patriots. We’ll show them how to do it,” Trump said as he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at a NATO summit in Turkey. “I think they can produce them pretty quickly.”

Patriots are expensive, in high demand and take a long time to produce. Zelensky has for years been asking for more of them, and more recently for a license so that Ukraine can manufacture its own.

The tone of Trump’s meeting with the Ukrainian leader was a break from earlier encounters which ended in acrimony, and Trump praised Zelensky’s willingness to reach a deal on ending the fighting in Ukraine.

He said the Ukrainian president has “done an amazing job” and “been very effective” in the war.

“We’ve actually developed a good relationship. It’s hard to believe,” Trump said, adding he believed a deal on ending the war was on the horizon and that the U.S. would “work on some kind of security package” to provide to Ukraine.

Trump takes aim at NATO partners

Trump wasn’t as friendly, however, with some his NATO partners, saying he was unhappy with the alliance for pushing back against his efforts to take control of Greenland and for not supporting his war in Iran.

NATO’s European members plus Canada have scrambled to meet the increased defense spending targets Trump has demanded, as the U.S. draws down the number of troops it has in Europe and insists that the continent take more responsibility for its own security.

But Trump reopened old wounds as he arrived at the meeting of 32 NATO leaders by insisting again that the United States should control Greenland, a semiautonomous Danish territory. He blasted some European countries for refusing to participate in the Iran campaign, singling out Spain as “a terrible partner in NATO” and renewing his threats to cut off trade.

Ahead of the summit, Trump said Greenland “is very important” for the U.S. but not for Denmark, declaring, “We need it for protection of the world, not just the United States.”

But Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said her country is “ready to defend every inch of NATO including our own territory” in the event of an attack, and would rely on NATO allies to honor their commitment to defend each other.

Trump’s criticisms have in the past drawn European countries closer together as they confront wars in Ukraine and Iran, a ballooning trade deficit with China, and threats from Russia.

The president’s renewed interest in Greenland could put at risk the entire future of NATO, which was founded in 1949 to counter the threat to European security posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte sought to tamp down the president’s ire by giving him credit for recent increases in defense spending from NATO allies.

“Grab the win. It’s there,” Rutte told Trump on Wednesday.

NATO chief backs latest U.S. strikes on Iran

Ahead of the summit, Rutte praised Trump for the series of U.S. strikes on Iran overnight, after Tehran struck three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

“I think what you did last night was absolutely necessary,” Rutte said to Trump. “It was a very strong response, and I’m with you on this.”

The U.S. strikes, as well as the revoking of a license allowing Iran to sell its oil on global markets, underscored the fragility of an interim deal to end months of fighting.

Trump said of the interim agreement with Iran: “For me, I think it’s over” — but added he will allow talks to continue.

“It’s just a waste of time dealing with them,” he said.

NATO leaders sought to show Trump they were boosting defense

Rutte has dedicated a huge amount of energy to keeping Trump’s support for NATO and to holding the summit together.

The NATO chief pointed to countries including Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Denmark that are investing more in defense, but noted the Trump administration expects “the Europeans and Canadians will equalize their spending with the United States.”

Last month Rutte went to Washington to hail the “Trump Trillion” — the $1.2 trillion that European allies and Canada have added to defense spending since Trump came to power in 2017.

As leaders converged on Ankara, Rutte hosted a “big reveal” event to showcase the many deals planned for the increased spending — much of it to be spent on U.S. companies, creating thousands of jobs for Americans.

At last year’s summit, the allies agreed to invest 5% of their gross domestic product on defense — 3.5% on their defense budgets and 1.5% on infrastructure so troops and equipment can move faster in times of conflict.

Yet figures released by NATO on Tuesday showed that Slovenia, Belgium, Spain and the Czech Republic have struggled to meet the alliance’s old spending target of 2% of GDP.

The Trump administration wants to see a leaner “NATO 3.0,” with Europe taking responsibility for its own security, including Ukraine, with conventional weapons while America would continue to provide its nuclear umbrella.

The Pentagon has launched a six-month review of U.S. military presence in Europe, leaving allies to seek clarity on just how deeply Trump intends to cut U.S. force numbers.

Ukraine’s Zelensky pushes for NATO entry

Zelensky made a fresh appeal Tuesday for Ukraine to be allowed to join the alliance, saying Ukrainian armed forces are highly experienced and would only boost NATO’s defense capabilities.

He’s highlighted Ukraine’s adaptability and its ability to strike deep inside Russia. He said Ukraine’s armed forces are “eliminating” on average 30,000 Russian troops every month.

Concern has been mounting among some countries with borders near Russia that Moscow might be preparing a hybrid attack — a combination of conventional warfare with tactics like cyberattacks — on the continent as President Vladimir Putin struggles to secure victory in Ukraine.

Trump will also meet with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former insurgent who led the offensive that unseated autocrat Bashar Assad in December 2024. Despite having once been an al-Qaida fighter, al-Sharaa has won Trump’s backing as he seeks to rebuild Syria and restore its shattered ties with the West.

Cook, Kim and Fraser write for the Associated Press. AP journalists Collin Binkley and Michelle L. Price in Washington contributed to this report.

US President Donald Trump says the US will ‘probably’ carry out another round of strikes on Iran on Wednesday night, following overnight strikes he said were launched in response to Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that its forces have launched “a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway.” The U.S. strikes “are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” CENTCOM stated on X. “Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.”

The official Iranian state media outlet IRIB reported 13 explosions in southern Iran.

The CENTCOM attacks follow the U.S. Treasury Department revoking a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil. That abrogates a key part of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by Washington and Tehran on June 18.

Here’s the new Treasury license on Iran: “Revocation and Wind Down of June 21, 2026 Authorization for the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian Origin” pic.twitter.com/2jgRRTQudu

— Phil Mattingly (@Phil_Mattingly) July 7, 2026

While the future of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its stockpile of enriched uranium are among other key issues addressed in the document, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a flashpoint.

The latest attacks on shipping all involved tankers.

“A LNG tanker reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side engine room causing a fire, whilst travelling southbound through the SOH,” UKMTO reported. That incident took place about eight nautical miles east of Limah, Oman.

Before that, a “VLCC reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side upon exiting the SOH” about 16 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, UAE, UKMTO added. “Vessel was able to proceed to NPOC [nearest point of call] and no crew injuries were reported.”

The first of the three vessels struck today was a tanker that reported being attacked six nautical miles east of Musandam Peninsula, Oman “by an unknown projectile and has sustained minor structural damage,” UKMTO stated. “No casualties or environmental impact reported and vessel is proceeding to NPOC.”

These attacks all took place along the southern-most route in the Strait, which is controlled by the U.S. and Oman. Iran controls the northern route and the mid-section of the body of water is considered too dangerous to transit due to the threat of mines.

Last Thursday, Iran’s military warned that all oil tankers moving through the Strait must use its approved routes. It also said that interference by U.S. forces in the strait “will be met with a rapid and decisive reaction.”

But the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a multinational body overseen by the U.S. Navy, told shippers Monday that the route around Oman “has been expanded and remains available for all traffic.”

The most recent attacks on shipping came after that JMIC notification and about a week after Iran and the U.S. promised to stop striking each other. 

What happens next is unknown. The peace talks were paused while Iran holds a weeklong funeral for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war in an airstrike.

In an interview with Iranian media posted on X, Iranian Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, advisor to Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, seemed to appeal to Iranian hardliners who want to resume fighting.

“Friends who oppose negotiations, be patient; the Americans themselves will derail these talks,” he posited.

This is a developing story.

UPDATE: 6:22 PM EDT –

Video and still images purporting to show the U.S. attacks on Iran are emerging on social media. Bandar Abbas, site of Iran’s key naval base on the Strait of Hormuz, appears to be one of the targets. Bandar Abbas has come under attack several times during this conflict.

Fires seen burning at the Port of Shahid Haqqani in Bandar Abbas, Southern Iran, following tonight’s wave of retaliatory strikes against Iranian military and infrastructure sites by the U.S. Air Force and Navy. pic.twitter.com/ccZPuZvDPG

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 7, 2026

Bandar Abbas Airport was a major target tonight, where a senior figure in the Islamic regime was present and from where the regime has launched missiles and drones toward neighboring countries. This regime only understands Hebrew and Arabic; it does not understand American… pic.twitter.com/RdDPTgR87T

— Amjad Taha أمجد طه (@amjadt25) July 7, 2026

Video from Shahid Haqqani Port, validated by the network, following U.S. airstrikes on the facility in Bandar Abbas, Iran. pic.twitter.com/msNbYm6r7O

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) July 7, 2026

In a post on X, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said the U.S. strikes on Iran today were “four or five times bigger in scope and power than the previous strikes 10 days ago.”

The U.S. strikes in Iran on Tuesday were four or five times bigger in scope and power than the previous strikes 10 days ago, the U.S. official told me https://t.co/TiDTGTxMTV

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) July 7, 2026

Authorities “have launched a search effort for K2 Airways Cargo 737 AP-BOI after the flight did not land as scheduled in Karachi,” FlightRadar24 reported. “KTA1732 was en route from Sharjah to Karachi when contact was lost with the aircraft. Preliminary ADS-B data indicate a loss of altitude, followed by a climb, and then a second, sudden and dramatic loss of altitude. The final received data point from the aircraft was at 16:21 UTC, placing the aircraft at 1,100 ft AMSL with a reported vertical rate of -22,400 feet per minute.”

According to FlightRadar24’s data, the cargo jet flew east over the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman when it disappeared from radar screens at about 12:20 PM EDT.

The Pakistan Airports Authority reported on X that the aircraft was suffering a “navigational system issue” before contact was lost. There were five people onboard at the time.

However; at time 2121PST aircraft was observed on RADAR rapidly descending and with rapid heading change, subsequently RADAR contact and communication was lost approximately 155 NM west of Karachi.

— Pakistan Airports Authority (@Pk_PAA_Official) July 7, 2026

The exact cause of this incident is unknown at this time. While there are no indications that the aircraft was lost due to hostile activity, the area is extremely tense.

UPDATE: 947 PM EDT –

CENTCOM says it has “completed its strikes against Iran, July 7, hitting over 80 targets with precision munitions as an immediate response to Iran’s latest attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”

“U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in and near the strait to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor,” the command said in a statement.

“Iran recently attacked three commercial vessels transiting the strait including Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Al Rekayyat, Saudi Arabia-flagged M/T Wedyan, and Liberian-flagged M/T Cyprus Prosperity,” CENTCOM added. “The unwarranted aggression by Iranian forces is a clear and dangerous violation of the ceasefire and undermines freedom of navigation. CENTCOM forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable when the agreement is not adhered to or obeyed.”

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Chief executive Steve Heapy said a ‘massive amount of people still want to go away’

Airline and package holiday provider Jet2 released an update today (Wednesday, July 8), revealing that the company has experienced a surge in demand in recent weeks on the back of US-Iran peace talks.

The firm posted a pre-tax profit of £551 million for the year ending March, a 7% drop from £593 million the previous year. Summer bookings are up 7% compared with the same period last year, while the average proportion of seats filled on its flights for the four months to the end of July are 1.2 percentage points up year-on-year.

US President Donald Trump announced he signed a peace deal with Iran last month, though this has been called into question following overnight strikes.

Publishing its full-year financial results, Jet2 said: “Reduced geopolitical uncertainty has led to strong booking momentum in recent weeks.”

Speaking to reporters, chief executive Steve Heapy said demand has risen across all of Jet2’s destinations, with the biggest recoveries in percentage terms seen in those areas hardest hit by the conflict, including Turkey, Cyprus, some of the eastern Greek islands, Bulgaria and parts of north Africa.

“I think confidence has improved,” he said. “People perhaps don’t like to commit to travelling when there is a conflict, even though from one of our Turkish resorts to Tehran it was 2,000 kilometres, that’s like from Edinburgh to the Canary Islands, that’s a hell of a long way.

“But people don’t like to commit, particularly perhaps families with younger children.

“But we are seeing a bounce-back across all our destinations, and I think people are now realising ‘I feel a little more confident, we’re going to go on holiday and get away’.

“We speak to our customers a lot and try and understand their booking intentions,” he added. “A massive amount of people still want to go away.”

Jet2 announced record annual passenger figures of 20.8 million, representing a 5% rise from the previous year. The company said its performance at Gatwick Airport – where it began flights and holidays in March – is “ahead of initial expectations” and further expansion is planned for summer 2027.

Julie Palmer, partner at consultancy firm Begbies Traynor, said: “Investors will be pleased to see strong profitability has been delivered alongside evidence of investment”.

She added: “Jet2 will be hoping a peace deal holds and stabilises the market as it eyes further growth.

“Signs that this is bringing back confidence in spending for holidaymakers during the crucial summer season will be welcomed by the operator too, and it will be hoping it can continue to tempt customers into spending on holidays.”

Shares fell on Wednesday in Europe and Asia, and oil prices surged nearly 6% after US President Donald Trump said the tentative ceasefire with Iran was over, raising the prospect of renewed military conflict between the two countries.

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Asked whether the memorandum of understanding with Iran was over, Trump told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara: “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them,” according to Reuters.

This came after US Central Command said its forces struck more than 80 targets in Iran overnight, including command-and-control networks, coastal radar installations, anti-ship missile capabilities and vessels operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Washington also revoked a waiver that had allowed Iran to restart oil exports.

Brent crude, the international standard, jumped more than 6% by 10:45 CEST to $78.79 a barrel, while US benchmark crude rose 6.3% to $74.88 a barrel. Both had declined recently to around the levels seen before the war with Iran began in late February.

The latest flare-up, despite commitments to seek a peaceful resolution to the conflict, has added to uncertainty over oil prices after they fell from their peak well above $100 during the war. It also comes amid worries that the craze for artificial intelligence-related shares has pushed prices beyond the productivity gains and profits likely to result from massive investments in computer chip production capacity and data centres.

“As such, geopolitical headlines will likely determine market sentiment over the coming hours. A further deterioration in the situation could weigh further on equity valuations along with rising stress in technology,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote said in a commentary.

Stock markets fall

In share trading, Germany’s DAX shed more than 2.2%, at around 11 CEST, while the FTSE 100 in London lost 1.5%, and France’s CAC 40 fell more than 2%.

US stock futures were down about 1% at the same time.

In Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 2.1% to 66,819.05, while South Korea’s Kospi shed 5.4% to 7,246.79.

The South Korean index has soared and then fallen back, briefly surpassing the 9,000 level last month before succumbing to heavy selling in AI-related technology shares such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Samsung fell 6.3% early Wednesday after dropping about 7% the day before. SK Hynix reversed early gains to fall 5.7%.

Taiwan’s Taiex rose 0.6%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 3% to 24,193.56.

Shares in Chinese AI model start-up Zhipu, also known as Z.ai and traded as Knowledge Atlas Technology, rose nearly 14% on Wednesday.

The Shanghai Composite index declined 0.5% to 3,970.88.

On Tuesday, the roller-coaster ride for AI stocks turned lower again, dragging Wall Street down. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, though the majority of stocks within the index rose.

Losses among AI-related stocks dragged the Nasdaq Composite 1.2% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%.

Advanced Micro Devices sank 6.5%, Intel shed 9.7%, and Micron Technology lost 4.7%.

SpaceX, which owns the xAI business, fell 6.8% on its first day of trading in the Nasdaq-100 index.

Rivian Automotive dropped 18.1% after the electric vehicle company said it would sell 75 million shares, diluting existing shareholders’ stakes.

In currency trading early Wednesday, the US dollar rose to 162.26 Japanese yen from 162.11 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1426 from $1.1414.

The Iranian Striker: Mehdi Taremi offers a rare personal portrait of one of Iran’s most celebrated footballers during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Iranian team striker Mehdi Taremi reflects on the journey that shaped him – from growing up in Bushehr, to representing millions of Iranians at the World Cup.

In this Al Jazeera Originals short documentary, Taremi speaks about childhood, compulsory military service, sacrifice, criticism, national identity and why football means far more than the game itself. He also shares what it means to represent Iran before a global audience, and why he hopes football can help people better understand his country.

July 8 (UPI) — Iran’s military said Wednesday it conducted retaliatory strikes against the United States, targeting dozens of U.S. assets in Bahrain and Kuwait, as the fight over control of the Strait of Hormuz threatened to escalate the war.

In a statement carried by state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Iran’s Armed Forces said they had attacked 85 “key U.S. military installations” at Salman Port and the 5th Fleet, both in Bahrain, and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait.

The statement was followed by a second one announcing a “new wave” of missiles targeting U.S. bases in Bahrain.

The extent of the damage, if any, was not immediately clear, but the Kuwait Army confirmed in a statement that its air defenses were confronting “hostile missile and drone attacks.”

“We will not allow U.S. interference in the affairs of the Strait of Hormuz,” Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran’s top military command body, said in a statement. “Transit through the SoH is only permitted via the routes designated by Iran.”

The strikes came hours after the U.S. military announced late Tuesday the completion of its attacks in Iran, a response to three commercial vessels being struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The maritime chokepoint has become a dangerous fault line in the war between the United States and Iran.

Washington is seeking to re-establish navigational freedom within the strait, while Iran is attempting to exert and maintain control of the waterway it has sought to exercise since the war began. Neither side appears to be budging, threatening the end of cease-fire negotiations and a return to all-out war.

Both sides accuse the other of violating conditions of the memorandum of understanding they agreed to implement last month to halt the fighting. Indirect negotiations held early this month in Doha produced little to no progress and the renewed fighting may upend the process altogether.

After three commercial vessels were recently struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military said it hit more than 80 targets inside Iran.

Before launching its retaliatory attacks early Wednesday, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters vowed in a statement carried by state-run Fars News Agency that it would “give a crushing response to America’s aggression and terrorist action.”

It said that “under no circumstances” would it allow U.S. interference in the affairs or management of the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran, Iran – Three weeks after Iran and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding to extend their ceasefire, their truce remains fragile.

Three tankers have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz over the past two days, even as Iran and the US are expected to restart mediated negotiations to end the war next week, after the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The US military on Wednesday launched large air attacks on Iran’s southern provinces, which prompted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s regular army to fire missiles and drones on US interests in Bahrain and Kuwait. Both sides accused each other of violating the understanding signed last month.

But even if a long-term resolution is eventually reached and Western sanctions on Iran are lifted, analysts say that it will take time for the country’s economy to recover.

The economy has been strained by years of local mismanagement and corruption; stringent Western and United Nations sanctions; and, more recently, damage sustained from two wars in a year with the US and Israel, deadly nationwide protests in January, and internet shutdowns.

When numbers tell a story

A falling purchasing power has pushed millions into poverty. Inflation has recently climbed to levels not seen since World War II, when Allied forces occupied Iran, took over railways and food supplies, and contributed to a deadly famine.

The latest report by the Statistical Center of Iran for Khordad, the third month of the Persian calendar that ended on June 21, showed inflation increasing by 88.6 percent compared to the same month of the year before. Inflation was up by nearly 6 percent compared to the second month of the current year.

Food inflation was skyrocketing at almost 134 percent in Khordad compared to the corresponding month a year earlier, with oils and fats surging by more than 278 percent, red meat and poultry by over 178 percent, and bread and cereals by nearly 139 percent.

Unemployment is at 7.5 percent during the current calendar year, according to the latest report by the statistical centre released at the end of June. But labour participation is at just 40 percent, meaning that most working-age people are operating outside the official labour force – including students, retirees, those engaged in irregular informal work, and those not seeking paid work.

The job-quality picture is also grim, as salaries are perennially falling behind expenses, as over 38 percent of officially employed people work more than 49 hours a week, and as youth unemployment is at over 20 percent, the centre reports.

The base monthly minimum wage equals only about $95 using the current open market exchange rate of the US dollar in Tehran. The rate has climbed to 1.75 million rials per greenback over recent days, not far from its all-time low of 1.9 million in May.

The damage — and the road to recovery

Due to a heavy budget crunch, the only relief the government is able to offer amounts to a few dollars’ worth of monthly cash subsidy and electronic coupons for purchasing essential goods.

A late June report by the Central Bank of Iran for the previous calendar year that ended on March 20 showed that gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the year stood at minus 0.7 percent, and gross fixed capital formation, a primary indicator of productive capacity and economic growth, was at nearly minus 12 percent. Imports were down 16.6 percent, as were exports by close to 5 percent.

The damage from nearly 40 days of heavy bombardment during the war, the longest nationwide state-imposed internet shutdown in any country, and a US naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports — the full extent of which remains undisclosed to the public — has only exacerbated Iran’s economic woes. The International Monetary Fund has projected that Iran’s real GDP will shrink by 6.1 percent in 2026.

Still, Mahdi Ghodsi, a senior economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, said that part of the recent job losses could be recoverable if there is a credible halt to military escalation, restoration of transport and logistics links, more predictable access to energy and fuel, and functioning internet and payment systems.

“In that case, some temporary layoffs in services, retail, transport, construction and small businesses could be reversed relatively quickly, because these activities are highly sensitive to uncertainty and disruptions rather than necessarily destroyed productive capacity,” he told Al Jazeera.

Longer-term challenges

But Ghodsi cautioned that part of the damage is likely to be more persistent.

“Where factories have lost machinery, inventories, imported inputs, workers, working capital, or access to energy, reopening is not simply a matter of returning to normal,” he said, adding that in some cases, full recovery may take years and require large investments, including foreign financing.

Last week, leading satellite imaging provider Planet Labs restored access to imagery for nearly 800 sites across Iran impacted during the war, after lifting earlier restrictions it had placed in response to a US government request to delay or suspend access.

Some Iranians on social media highlighted massive damage done to Iran Electronics Industries (SAIran), a state-owned defence industry heavyweight specialising in optics, communications, semiconductors and medical equipment, among other things.

But along with numerous military-linked sites and assets, and nuclear facilities built over decades now reduced to rubble, Iran’s industrial capacity and civilian infrastructure were also extensively targeted by US and Israeli warplanes and vessels during the war.

Oil and gas facilities, petrochemical and steel giants, electricity outposts, as well as maritime ports, airports, roads, bridges and residential units were significantly damaged.

Work on rebuilding facilities and recovering lost capacities has begun during the period of reduced military hostility over recent weeks, with some airports and industrial units restarting operations.

But a full recovery still appears distant and more destruction could still lay ahead. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened extensive attacks against Iran’s electricity grid and infrastructure like bridges if the war resumes.

Economist Ghodsi said the government’s limited fiscal capacity remains one of the central problems, since the state has already faced struggles in financing not only regular expenditures and salaries, but also obligations across public and semi-public sectors. “This fiscal weakness has been one of the drivers of inflation, as budgetary pressures are partly shifted onto the banking system and the central bank through monetary financing,” he said.

Domestic fissures

Speaking at a state-organised event in Tehran last month, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed concerns about another nationwide protest as public discontent remains high.

“Our most important strength is our unity, and the unity of our people. What I fear is that we fail to serve the people right and they are dissatisfied and come to the streets to protest. Then our might collapses,” he said.

Senior officials spearheading the mediated talks with Washington have backed the process as the viable path to delivering a better economy to the suffering Iranian population.

But hardliners within the system, who perceive Iran to have attained a major victory against superior military powers during the war, continue to vociferously reject giving any concessions.

During Khamenei’s funeral procession in Tehran on Monday, Pezeshkian was filmed getting heckled by anti-deal mourners who demanded blood vengeance for the slain supreme leader and shouted “Death to the compromiser” and “Death to the traitorous homeland-seller”.

Brent crude rises above $76 a barrel for the first time in two weeks amid renewed violence in Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices have surged as renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran threaten to derail a fragile ceasefire that had brought some relief to global energy markets.

Brent crude, the main international benchmark, rose as much as 3 percent on Wednesday, reversing a slide that had seen prices return to pre-war levels.

Brent futures for September stood at $76.07 a barrel as of 04:00 GMT, the highest since June 23.

The jump came after the US launched strikes on Iran and revoked a temporary waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil, following attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

US, Qatari and Saudi officials blamed Iran for the attacks on the vessels.

US Central Command said on X that it had begun “launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway”.

Tehran has not directly claimed responsibility for the attacks, but has repeatedly warned vessels against attempting to transit the waterway on routes it has not approved.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said earlier that Tehran would take “decisive actions to safeguard its national interests and security” in response to the revocation of the sanctions waiver, describing the move as a “blatant violation” of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by Washington and Tehran on June 17.

Tony Sycamore, a senior market analyst at IG Australia, said the MoU’s language was deliberately vague regarding control of the strait and traffic management.

Disagreement between the US and Iran over whether the strait is an international waterway or partly Iran’s territorial waters was never fully resolved, Sycamore said.

“It remains to be seen whether this morning’s US strikes bring a swift end to the latest escalation or Iran elects to continue flexing its leverage over the Strait with actions that fall short of triggering a broader conflict,” Sycamore said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

“At the very least, it will keep markets on edge and does suggest crude oil prices have based for now.”

The US strikes followed a separate move by the US Treasury Department late on Tuesday to revoke its 60-day waiver on sanctions on Iranian oil.

The Treasury Department last month authorised the sale of Iranian oil until August 21 as part of broader negotiations with Tehran, but transactions will now no longer be allowed after 12:01am EDT (04:01 GMT) on July 17, according to a statement on the department’s website.

The new order also rescinds authorisation for any new transactions, including purchases or loading, after Tuesday.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, said he expects oil prices to remain elevated as hazardous conditions persist in the strait and the release of emergency oil stockpiles wind down.

“Iran fully intends to cement its control over the Strait of Hormuz in the coming weeks, which is unacceptable to the US, many Gulf states and global customers, and could result in passage through the strait remaining below 50 percent of pre-war levels for many months with periodic flare-ups in hostilities,” Kavonic told Al Jazeera.