Iran

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says ceasefire with Iran remains in place despite growing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has pushed back on comments that President Donald Trump accused Pope Leo XIV of “endangering Catholics” over his stance on the Iran war, saying his early remarks had been mischaracterised.

“Well, I don’t think that’s an accurate description of what he said,” Rubio told reporters on Tuesday when asked about Trump’s comments that the pope was “endangering a lot of Catholics”.

Rubio said the president’s concern was rooted in the threat Iran could pose to “places that have a lot of Catholics and Christians and others”, and questioned why “anyone would think that it’s a good idea for Iran to ever have a nuclear weapon”.

He also pointed to rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Tehran of “holding the whole world hostage” and endangering commercial shipping.

Trump had earlier criticised the pope in remarks to right-wing radio host Hugh Hewitt, suggesting the pontiff was too soft on Tehran.

“The pope would rather talk about the fact that it’s OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, and I don’t think that’s very good,” Trump said.

“I think he’s endangering a lot of Catholics and a lot of people. But I guess if it’s up to the pope, he thinks it’s just fine for Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” he added.

The exchange comes in advance of a meeting between Rubio and Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican on Thursday, which the US ambassador to the Holy See said is expected to be “frank”, underscoring tensions between Washington and the Catholic Church.

“Nations have disagreements, and one way to work through them is through dialogue,” Ambassador Brian Burch said on Tuesday.

“I think the secretary is coming here in that spirit, to have a frank conversation about US policy and engage in dialogue,” he added.

The pope has not said Iran should have nuclear weapons, but has opposed the war, which Trump says is aimed at stopping Tehran’s nuclear programme.

War of words between Trump and Pope Leo

Strains between Trump and Pope Leo began in March after the pontiff spoke out against the war in Iran and criticised the use of Christian rhetoric to justify military action.

The dispute escalated in April when Trump attacked the pope on social media, calling him “weak on crime” and accusing him of aligning with the “radical left”.

Pope Leo later responded during a trip to Algeria, saying he was not afraid and would keep speaking out against the war.

“I will continue to speak out loudly against war, looking to promote ⁠peace, promoting dialogue and multilateral relationships among the states ⁠to look for just ⁠solutions to problems,” he said, speaking in English.

“Too many people are suffering in the world today. Too many innocent people are being killed. And I think someone has to ‌stand ‌up and say there’s a better way.”

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s top diplomat, said he did not know if Leo would respond to Trump’s latest comments.

“The pope will go ahead on his path, in the sense of preaching ‌the Gospel [and] ⁠peace,” Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, told journalists. He said Leo would speak about peace at every opportunity, “convenient and inconvenient”.

Rubio is also set to meet on Friday with ⁠Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who defended the pope, while her defence minister has said the war in Iran puts US leadership at risk.

The pope has also criticised the Trump administration’s hardline immigration policies and called for dialogue between the United States and Cuba, which has faced frequent blackouts linked to US sanctions.

US President Donald Trump said Iran should ‘wave the white flag of surrender’ in the war, and accused Iran’s leaders of playing games in negotiations. He also said higher oil prices are a ‘small price to pay’ to keep Iran from having a nuclear weapon.

Tehran, Iran – Iran’s judiciary has promised to continue taking “decisive” action against people it accuses of working for foreign interests as it reports more executions and asset seizures.

Judiciary and security authorities said they will “act decisively against the enemies’ mercenaries without leniency until the very last one”, according to a state television report aired late on Monday.

The report came hours after judicial authorities executed three men who were arrested in the northeastern city of Mashhad during nationwide protests in January, which top officials have called a “coup” attempt led by the United States and Israel.

State media aired what it presented as confessions by the men, who were labelled “agents” of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad and “leaders of riots” by the authorities. The report said the men acted against the government by using knives and swords against paramilitary Basij forces and damaging public property.

An increasing number of prisoners have been hanged over recent weeks, particularly since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28. The executions are connected to the antiestablishment protests, during which thousands of people were killed amid a state-imposed internet shutdown.

In Isfahan last week, 21-year-old Sasan Azadvar was executed for “cooperation with the enemy” for acts that included, according to the judiciary, “attacking a minibus carrying security forces with stones and a club and breaking windows of public buses and private vehicles”.

The authorities maintained that while the judicial process has been significantly speeded up for those arrested in connection with the protests, the proceedings remain legal and executions are carried out after being greenlit by Supreme Court judges.

Foreign-based human rights organisations and opponents of Iran’s government have said prisoners are not given fair trials and their families are pressured into remaining silent about arrests and executions, charges Iranian authorities reject.

A number of prisoners have also been executed after being convicted of espionage for Israel and other national security charges. Security offences can lead to a conviction of moharebeh, or “waging war against God”, and other sentences that carry the death penalty.

Earlier this week, two men were hanged for allegedly sending images of military facilities to the Mossad, trying to recruit others for sabotage activities and calling security authorities with fabricated leads to divert them.

Multiple members of the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), a foreign-based group considered a “terrorist” outfit by Iranian authorities, have also been executed over recent weeks.

Foreign-based human rights organisations reported that Iranian authorities have in 2025 and 2026 carried out the largest number of hangings since 1989 when political dissidents and MEK members received death sentences in large numbers.

A report by Iran Human Rights and Together Against the Death Penalty last month said at least 1,639 executions were recorded in 2025, which was 68 percent higher than the year before.

The United Nations confirmed at the end of April that since the start of this year’s war, at least 21 people have been executed and more than 4,000 arrested on national security-related charges. Iranian authorities have not commented on the figures.

Economic measures

Iranian authorities have also confiscated the private assets of Iranians inside and outside the country in response to perceived antiestablishment activities.

The latest such move was announced on Tuesday morning when the judiciary announced that authorities in Semnan province, located east of Tehran, had seized the assets of 22 “traitors to the nation and people who are linked with the Zionist regime [Israel] and hostile countries”.

During the naval blockade imposed by the US, which has exacerbated the already dire economic conditions in Iran, authorities have also warned that they will act against any disruptive measures, such as hoarding goods, and have threatened prison time of up to 20 years, lashings and fines for anyone convicted.

Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei also warned that those hoarding, price gouging or selling expired goods will be met with “decisive” legal action.

Prices surged this week across the country, especially for food, medicine, cars and electronic devices. And there are potentially challenging times ahead with little sign of a lasting resolution to the conflict with the US and Israel despite an ongoing ceasefire.

“The current price levels are unacceptable. The price increases are due to the war tumult and sanctions,” Central Bank of Iran chief Abdolnasser Hemmati said on Tuesday. “But the people should not be worried because their resistance is working and, God willing, victory will be achieved soon.”

As airlines have been granted a green light to consolidate or cancel flights with just two weeks’ notice, experts have warned of inevitable chaos this peak holiday season

Summer is well and truly in the air, but Brits looking ahead to their well-deserved week in the sun have been warned to take extra caution.

As the price of jet fuel has risen by 120 per cent since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, there are concerns of shortages in the coming months. Airlines have already hiked ticket prices, but further disruption is expected unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

Before the conflict, Europe as a whole had about 37 days’ supply of available. Now, this is likely to have dropped to 30 days, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning that 23 days is the critical point at which some airports would run out of fuel.

Now after airlines were granted a green light to consolidate or cancel flights with just two weeks’ notice, experts have warned that the traditional protections for those with additional needs are under threat. Crucially, the European Commission has signalled that disruptions caused by the ongoing Middle East fuel crisis will be filed under “exceptional circumstances,” meaning holidaymakers may be unable to claim any financial compensation if their flights are changed.

READ MORE: RAC issues ‘ominous’ UK petrol and diesel price warning for May 2026

Travel expert Declan Somers, CEO of Mobal, warns that the biggest risk this summer isn’t just chaos at airports, but how passengers might be split. As airlines merge flights to conserve fuel, families who booked together may find themselves rebooked onto replacement aircraft where they are scattered across the cabin.

Notably, there is no UK law that requires children to be seated with their parents on a plane. Airlines can legally separate even those under five from their parents, although this would be against Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) guidelines. The CAA says: ‘Young children and infants who are accompanied by adults should ideally be seated in the same seat row as the adult. Where this is not possible, children should be separated by no more than one seat row from accompanying adults. This is because the speed of an emergency evacuation may be affected by adults trying to reach their children.” “

If airlines start consolidating flights, a family of four ‘may be rebooked onto the same replacement flight but not necessarily seated together,” Somers cautioned.

While UK guidance suggests airlines should aim to seat children near parents, there is no absolute guarantee. To mitigate this, Somers urges parents not to treat seat selection as optional: “Book directly with the airline, pay for seat selection, and call immediately to have assistance notes attached to the PNR (Passenger Name Record).”

The situation is even more precarious for those with disabilities or complex medical requirements. Travel expert Alexandra Dubakova warns that emergency rebookings often fail to account for specialised needs, such as extra legroom for mobility or specific seating for medical equipment. “There might be cases of passengers being de-boarded or rebooked again because the replacement aircraft lacks the specific configurations they originally paid for,” Dubakova explained.

She warns of a significant “erosion of consumer rights,” noting that under “exceptional circumstances,” airlines are under less financial pressure to provide their usual level of care. For those requiring special assistance – such as storage for crutches or priority boarding – Scope guidance mandates booking at least 48 hours in advance. However, with last-minute aircraft swaps expected, these pre-arranged protections are no longer a certainty.

The disruption is expected to hit hardest at smaller regional airports, which lack the on-site fuel storage of major hubs like Heathrow. Dubakova describes these smaller airports as the “canary” in the coal mine. For families and disabled travelers, the advice is to “build in a buffer.”

Experts suggest choosing the first flight of the day, flying from larger hubs where possible, and ensuring all medication is planned at least four weeks in advance. UK airlines have previously insisted that they are not currently facing supply issues, while the Government will also work with the sector to act quickly if needed.

Europe’s leading budget airlines remain confident they will be able to keep flights running as usual throughout the peak holiday season ahead. Jet2, easyJet and TUI have all committed not to impose any additional charges on passengers due to fuel price increases.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said: “There are no immediate supply issues, but we’re preparing now to give families long-term certainty and avoid unnecessary disruption at the departure gate this summer. This legislation will give airlines the tools to adjust flights in good time if they need to, which helps protect passengers and businesses. We will do everything we can to insulate our country from the impact of the situation in the Middle East.”

It’s understood that British Airlines would not allow to children sit alone away from their parent, with the team pre-seating families on the same Passenger Name Record (PNR) to ensure all those under 12 years old are seated with at least one adult on the same record. As per the BA website: “If you don’t choose your seats in advance, we always do our best to seat your family together based on flight seat availability. This may mean that you’ll be seated in adjacent rows or across the aisle. All children under 12 will be seated with an accompanying adult.” Tui and Virgin Atlantic also offer similar reassurances on their websites.

Meanwhile, as per the Ryanair’s Family Seating Policy, detailed on the company website: “For family bookings, children (aged 2 to 11 years) receive free reserved seating so they can sit beside a parent. When an adult purchases a reserved seat they can select up to 4 children’s seats beside them free of charge. If an adult selects a reserved seat outside of specific rows (depending on aircraft) they must pay the price difference. Similarly, if a seat is selected for a child outside of these rows, they will be charged the full reserved seat price of these seats.”

The easyJet website warns families who leave check in until the last minute may not be guaranteed sears next to each other, however, staff will “still make sure each child under 12 is seated close to an adult on your booking” An easyJet spokesperson told the Mirror: “easyJet is not seeing any disruption to fuel supply. We continue to operate our flights and package holidays as normal and are not making changes or cancellations. We remain in close contact with suppliers who continue to provide uninterrupted supply and are diversifying exporting from additional countries globally to bolster supplies going forward.”

Kenton Jarvis, CEO of easyJet, said: “I want our customers to book with confidence this summer. We are operating as normal and are not making changes or cancellations and we are looking forward to taking millions of people on their well-deserved holidays this summer.”

Do you have a story to share? Email me at julia.banim@reachplc.com

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May 5 (UPI) — Iran warned Tuesday that it was “just getting started” after its military clashed with U.S. forces attempting to guide commercial vessels marooned in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mohammad Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, signaling Iran’s intention to exploit the United States’ need for a timely resolution to the conflict, said Iran was digging in for an extended fight that it was prepared to keep going for as long as necessary.

“The new equation in the Strait of Hormuz is being solidified. Shipping security and energy transit have been jeopardized by the U.S. and its allies with the cease-fire violations and blockade. However, their evil acts will fail. We know well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America, while we are just getting started,” said Ghalibaf.

Speaking at a news briefing at the Pentagon on Tuesday morning, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared to try to de-escalate the situation, stressing that the mission to free trapped merchant ships was a short-term, defensive operation purely aimed at providing protection for the hundreds of vessels he said “are lining up to transit.”

“Project Freedom is defensive in nature, focused in scope and temporary in duration, with one mission, protecting innocent commercial shipping from Iranian aggression. American forces won’t need to enter Iranian waters or airspace. It’s not necessary. We’re not looking for a fight,” he said.

However, echoing threats made by U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday night, Hegseth said that Iran “will face overwhelming firepower” if it attacks commercial shipping and that he expected other countries to “step up” to protect the strategically important sea lane “at the appropriate time.”

Day one of Trump’s Project Freedom on Monday saw Iran claim it fired on U.S. naval vessels approaching the strait, forcing one to turn around, while Trump said U.S. forces sank seven Iranian navy “fast boats,” prompting Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to dub the effort “Project Deadlock,” warning that the conflict could only be resolved through compromise.

The UAE also said it was targeted with Iranian missiles and drones for the first time since a cease-fire came into force April 9, blaming the attacks for a fire in its Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in which three people were injured.

“Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis. As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE,” said Araghchi.

The comments came hours after Trump threatened to blow Iran “off the face of the Earth’ if it attacked U.S. vessels involved in Project Freedom.

U.S. Central Command said no U.S. Navy ships had taken fire while Iran rejected as “outright lies,” claims by CENTCOM that two U.S.-flagged merchant vessels “successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey.”

Videos from a tournament kit reveal photo shoot and images from training sessions highlighting Team Melli’s preparations.

Iran’s preparations for the FIFA World Cup appear to be on track, as social media posts from the team’s official account hint at an upcoming tournament kit reveal and show the squad training at an undisclosed location.

Videos posted by Team Melli’s Instagram account on Monday showed players taking part in a photo shoot for what appears to be Iran’s home kit for the World Cup.

Iran are in Group G of the World Cup and will play all their games in the United States, which is cohosting the tournament with Canada and Mexico.

Several members of Iran’s squad, including first-choice goalkeeper Alireza Safar Beiranvand and winger Milad Mohammadi, were shown wearing a new kit in a series of social media posts.

The Team Melli account also posted photos from training sessions, which have been held in Iran before the squad travels to Turkiye for three friendly matches before the World Cup.

The Asian giants’ participation in the tournament became uncertain after the US and Israel launched a war on Iran on February 28, with Iranian officials questioning the US’s role as host and President Donald Trump suggesting Team Melli’s players may not be safe if they travel to his country for the championship.

However, recent statements by FIFA president Gianni Infantino and Iranian football officials have reaffirmed the country’s participation in the World Cup.

Infantino confirmed that Iran will play its games in the US in his opening remarks at the FIFA ⁠⁠Congress in Canada on Thursday.

“Let me start at the outset. Of course, Iran will be participating at the FIFA ⁠⁠World Cup 2026. And of course Iran will play in the United States of America,” Infantino said.

Trump later said he was “OK” with Iran playing in the country.

“If Gianni said it, I’m OK,” Trump told reporters ‌‌at the White House. “You know what? Let ‌‌them ‌‌play.”

Football officials in Iran have outlined the team’s training and preparations for the tournament, which include camps at home and in neighbouring Turkiye before travelling to the US.

“The first phase of the preparation period will end with an intra-team game on Wednesday,” assistant coach Saeed Alhoei told Iranian sport news outlet Varzesh3.

The game will be held at a stadium, and the players will wear official match kits, with an international referee and video assistant referee technology (VAR) to simulate tournament-like conditions.

Alhoei said the squad will depart for Turkiye on Monday for their final leg of preparations before travelling to the US in June.

Team Melli will kick off their ‌‌campaign ‌‌against New Zealand in Los Angeles on June 15 before taking on Belgium at the same stadium on June 21.

“We will have three friendly matches, two of which will probably be against [local] club teams and behind closed doors, and the third against an African team,” Alhoei said. “It is a quality team that can be a good simulation for playing against African teams.”

Iran will face Egypt in their final group match in Seattle on June 26.

On Monday, Iran suffered a significant ⁠⁠blow after it was confirmed that winger Ali Gholizadeh had suffered a season-ending knee injury while playing for his club Lech Poznan in Poland.

Gholizadeh, who would have started on the right ⁠⁠wing at the World Cup, was stretchered off the pitch against Motor Lublin last Saturday, and tests later confirmed he had torn the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.

“Gholizadeh will face surgery ⁠⁠in the coming days, followed by several months of rehabilitation,” the club said in a statement.

Iranian commander says US military attacked two passenger boats, not IRGC vessels, in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.

Iran has accused the United States of killing five civilians in the Strait of Hormuz, saying its forces attacked passenger vessels in the waterway rather than boats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as claimed.

The claim on Tuesday contradicted a statement by US Admiral Brad Cooper, who said Central Command forces had sunk six IRGC vessels that had attempted to interfere with a US mission to escort stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump later put the number at seven boats.

The US operation, dubbed “Project Freedom”, has shaken a fragile ceasefire reached between Iran and the US on April 8 and renewed fears of a return to war.

Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB quoted an unnamed Iranian military commander as saying that Tehran launched an investigation following the US claim of attacks on IRGC vessels.

It said while none of the IRGC vessels was hit, the investigation found that US forces had “attacked two small boats carrying people on their way from Khasab on the coast of Oman to the coast of Iran on Monday”.

The attacks destroyed the boats and killed five civilian passengers, the commander said. The US “must be held accountable for their crime”, the commander added.

There was no immediate comment from the US military.

The violence comes as Trump seeks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blockaded following the US and Israeli attacks on the country on February 28.

The closure of the vital maritime corridor – through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies flow – has sent oil and fertiliser prices surging around the world and prompted fears of a global recession and food emergency.

Iran is now insisting on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and collecting transit fees as reparations for the destruction caused by the US and Israel.

Attacks on UAE, ships in Hormuz

The Iranian military on Monday warned commercial vessels they would “jeopardise their safety” if they attempted to cross the waterway without permission. The military also warned US forces would face attacks if they approached or entered the chokepoint.

Amid the tensions, the United Arab Emirates said Iran launched a drone attack on one of its oil tankers that attempted to transit the strait and said Iranian forces launched 15 ballistic missiles and four drones at its territory.

UAE authorities said the attacks set off a large fire at a major oil refinery in the eastern emirate of Fujairah and wounded three Indian nationals.

A South Korean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the HMM Namu, also reported an attack, saying an explosion had caused a fire in its engine room.

Nonetheless, the US military said two US-flagged ships made it through the strait on Monday with the support of navy guided-missile destroyers.

The IRGC denied the claim as “baseless and completely false”, but the global shipping firm Maersk said the US-flagged Alliance Fairfax exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz accompanied by the US military on Monday.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the events in Hormuz on Monday “make clear there’s no military solution to a political crisis”.

He said in a post on X that peace talks with the US were “making progress” with Pakistan’s mediation and that Washington “should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers”.

“So should the UAE,” he added. “Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.”

Meanwhile, Trump has renewed his threats against Iran.

He told Fox News Iran would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attacked US vessels carrying out Project Freedom.

“We have more weapons and ammunition at a much higher grade than we had before,” he said.

“We have the best equipment. We have stuff all over the world. We have these bases worldwide. They’re all stocked up with equipment. We can use all of that stuff, and we will, if we need it.”

Published on
05/05/2026 – 7:12 GMT+2

Oil prices fell back in early trade but remained elevated as investors kept an eye on escalating tensions between the US and Iran and progress on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

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At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading 1.38% lower at $112.86 while US crude, or WTI, was down 2.27% at $104 per barrel. US futures edged 0.1% higher.

Elsewhere, regional trading was thin overnight with markets in Japan, South Korea and mainland China closed for holidays.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.1% to 25,805.98. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.5% to 8,649.80, while Taiwan’s Taiex traded 0.2% lower at 40,626.22.

The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran was tested on Monday after the US military said it had sank six Iranian small boats targeting civilian ships, while two US-flagged ships successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

The key waterway for oil and gas transport remains largely closed despite repeated demands from the US for Iran to reopen the strait and as the United States imposed a sea blockade on Iranian ports. US President Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” plan under which the United States would help guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz began on Monday.

Brent crude, the international standard, surged above $114 a barrel on Monday, gaining nearly 6%. Before the war began in late February, it was trading near $70.

The extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has created what Goldman Sachs describes as “extreme tightness” in Europe’s jet fuel supply, and the UK is seen as particularly vulnerable

Britain is at risk of rationing jet fuel due to shortages stemming from the Iran conflict, an expert has claimed.

With supplies potentially dropping to “critically low levels”, concern has grown for Europe’s jet fuel market and the consequences this will have on travel this summer. Some airlines, such as KLM and Lufthansa, have already cancelled flights due to fears about fuel.

Now, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banks, has said the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created “extreme tightness” in the market and the UK is especially exposed due to its limited stockpiles, heavy reliance on imports, and constrained refining capacity. It means the prospect of rationing is believed to being considered to help sustain the travel sector.

Jet fuel prices have doubled since the war began on February 28, prompting bleak warnings from Keir Starmer that travellers may need to rethink their holiday plans.

READ MORE: British Airways, Ryanair, easyJet and Jet2 issue fuel warning amid Middle East warREAD MORE: Soaring petrol prices to have ‘huge consequences for teachers and schools’

Goldman Sachs said in a research note: “The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer. As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.”

The Gulf region supplies around one-fifth of globally traded fuel, and with Europe heavily dependent on those flows, airlines are now competing for alternative sources — driving prices even higher. According to The Times, Goldman Sachs noted that the UK, as Europe’s largest net importer of jet fuel, lacks strategic reserves and relies primarily on commercial inventories as a buffer. Those levels, particularly in Britain, could fall dangerously low, increasing the likelihood of rationing.

Any sustained shortage would likely force airlines to cancel or consolidate flights while pushing ticket prices upward. Fuel accounts for as much as a quarter of airline operating costs. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, has already indicated it will raise fares to offset higher fuel expenses, acknowledging it is “not immune” to ongoing volatility despite hedging strategies.

Air France expects its jet fuel bill to rise by $2.4billion (£1.77million) this year, while American Airlines anticipates an increase of more than $4billion (£2.96million) — costs that are expected to translate into higher fares and reduced perks for passengers.

Although UK ministers have suggested supplies can be sourced from elsewhere, industry figures are less optimistic. Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said airlines are “desperately” looking for flights to cancel and could begin doing so within weeks.

Fuel suppliers have also warned that the UK has the “most limited visibility” in Europe when it comes to jet fuel supply, largely because of its dependence on Middle Eastern imports.

The European Commission said it would issue guidance to airlines this week, with a spokesperson noting that uncertainty remains high and preparations are being made for multiple scenarios.

Analysts also pointed to the UK’s reduced refining capacity following the closure of the Grangemouth refinery — Scotland’s only oil refinery — last April. Concerns had also surrounded the future of the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, though its new owner, Phillips 66, said the recent acquisition should help stabilise supply.

A report from the Tony Blair Institute argued that Europe’s climate-focused energy policies have contributed to higher prices — two to three times those of competitors — and increased dependence on imports.

Fuel suppliers said May demand should remain manageable but warned that disruptions could begin by mid-to-late June if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

BEIRUT — Confusion reigned on Monday over the fate of a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran after a wave of fresh strikes on the United Arab Emirates and Oman, along with reports of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, undermined confidence in the truce.

The drone and missile strikes, the first since a ceasefire halted fighting in early April, come after the Trump administration launched a wide-scale naval operation on Monday to “guide” stranded maritime vessels out of the vital waterway.

But fears over a return to war have driven another surge in oil prices, pushing them above $114 per barrel — levels not seen since the ceasefire nearly a month ago. Hundreds of cargo ships from dozens of countries remain stuck in the Gulf. And strikes in Dubai have raised concerns about further disruptions to international air travel at one of the world’s busiest airports.

Iran’s state-run news agency, IRNA, said the new U.S. operation was part of President Trump’s “delirium,” after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that passage through the strait required prior approval from Tehran.

“We warn that any foreign armed force, especially the invading American army, will be attacked if they attempt to approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz,” said Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, according to a statement reported by the Iranian state-run Mehr News Agency on Monday.

The operation, which Trump over the weekend dubbed “Project Freedom,” is supported by 15,000 U.S. servicemen and 100 aircraft, according to U.S. Central Command. Their aim is to deny Tehran control over the strait, a narrow, 21-mile-wide passageway through which a fifth of global energy supplies flows.

On Monday, Trump vowed Iran’s forces will be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attempt to disrupt Project Freedom.

“We have more weapons and ammunition at a much higher grade than we had before,” Trump was quoted as saying in an interview with Fox News.

“We have the best equipment. We have stuff all over the world. We have these bases all over the world. They’re all stocked up with equipment. We can use all of that stuff, and we will, if we need it.”

Iran blocked traffic through the strait soon after the United States and Israel launched their campaign on the country. Last month, days after a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran came into effect, the United States enforced its own naval blockade on Iranian ports in a bid to pressure Iran to make concessions in stalled negotiations.

On Monday, Central Command said in a statement that two American-flagged merchant ships were able to successfully transit the strait, while Central Command head Adm. Brad Cooper said the U.S. military sank six Iranian boats and intercepted missiles and drones targeting civilian vessels.

“We have defeated each and every one of those threats through the clinical application of defensive munitions,” he said.

“Project Freedom is a defensive operation, and we have deployed anti-ballistic missile destroyers,” he added. “Ships in the Gulf waters belong to 87 countries, and we urge ships to cross the strait.”

IRIB, Iran’s state-run broadcaster, quoted a senior Iranian military official who denied Cooper’s claim of sunk Iranian boats. The IRGC said in a statement on the messaging app Telegram that claims of commercial vessels or tankers traversing the strait were “baseless and completely false.”

Though Cooper did not clarify if the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was now over, a raft of attacks throughout Monday spiked fears that the war would restart, spurring sharp price increases in already-jittery energy markets.

The UAE said a fire broke out and three Indian nationals were injured in the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a key export hub for the country, after what it described as an Iranian drone attack.

It also accused Iran of targeting a tanker linked to the country’s state oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the Strait of Hormuz, while the country’s defense ministry also reported four cruise missiles launched from Iran, saying that it intercepted three of them while the fourth fell in the sea.

“These attacks constitute a dangerous escalation and an unacceptable transgression,” said a statement from the UAE’s foreign ministry, adding that it “reserves its full and legitimate right to respond to these attacks.”

Elsewhere, two foreign workers were injured in an attack on a residential building in the Omani coastal province of Bukha, according to a statement from an unnamed security source quoted by the state-run Oman News Agency. Authorities were investigating the incident but did not elaborate on the perpetrator.

The U.K.’s Maritime Trade Operations Center reported on Monday that a commercial vessel was on fire off the coast of the UAE, while a South Korean bulk carrier ship said it suffered an explosion and a fire in its engine room and the cause was being investigated.

Bulos reported from Beirut, Wilner from Washington.

Iran claims its navy forced a US warship to turn back from the Strait of Hormuz as Washington denies any clash, amid rising tensions in the key waterway. The rival narratives come after US President Donald Trump announced Project Freedom, a mission he framed as a humanitarian effort to “free” stranded ships.

Raman Kapoor, an Indian oil tanker captain stranded in the Gulf, says no vessel will attempt to exit the Strait of Hormuz without assurance of safety, despite the announcement of a US evacuation plan for ships stranded by the war.

YEREVAN, Armenia — European leaders on Monday said President Trump’s surprise decision to pull thousands of U.S. troops out of Germany is just the latest signal that Europe must take more responsibility for its security.

The Pentagon announced last week it would pull some 5,000 troops out of Germany, but Trump told reporters on Saturday the U.S. plans on “cutting a lot further.”

Trump offered no reason for the move, which blindsided NATO. But his decision came amid an escalating dispute with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said the U.S. has been humiliated by Iran in talks to end the war it launched with Israel on Feb. 28. Trump has also expressed anger over European allies’ reluctance to get involved in the conflict.

European leaders meeting at a summit in Yerevan, Armenia, sought to both downplay the impact of 5,000 fewer troops in Germany while acknowledging that it provides a useful nudge for the continent to step up its role within NATO.

“I do not see those figures as dramatic, but I think they should be handled in a harmonious way inside the framework of NATO,” said Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said “there needs to be a stronger European element in NATO, I have no doubt about that.”

Tensions within NATO have mounted since the second Trump administration came into office last year warning that European allies would have to defend themselves and Ukraine in the future. Talks on ending the war there, now in its fourth year, have bogged down as the U.S. focuses on Iran.

Taken by surprise

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said the timing of Trump’s announcement came as a surprise, even though there has been “talk about withdrawal of U.S. troops for a long time from Europe.”

Asked whether she believes Trump is trying to punish Merz, Kallas said: “I don’t see into the head of President Trump, so he has to explain it himself.”

Merz did not attend the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, which included about 30 European leaders, plus Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

At a military exercise in northern Germany, the country’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, said Berlin has not yet received “official confirmation of when and how this is supposed to happen, on what scale.” The reduction of U.S. troops “would not put into question NATO’s deterrence capability,” he added.

European countries and Canada have increased defense spending and military recruitment efforts over the last year in response to Trump’s threats.

NATO seeks clarity

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also played down the significance of fewer U.S. troops in Germany, while acknowledging U.S. “disappointment” about the level of European support for the Iran war.

France and the U.K. have given U.S. forces limited use of bases on their territories to attack Iran. Spain has outright denied U.S. forces the use of its airspace and bases.

Rutte, who has championed Trump’s leadership at NATO despite the U.S. president’s criticism of a majority of the allies, said: “I would say the Europeans have heard a message.”

European allies and Canada have known since early last year that Trump would pull some troops out of Europe — and some were pulled out of Romania in October — but U.S. officials had pledged to coordinate any moves with NATO allies to avoid creating a security vacuum.

NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said over the weekend that officials at the 32-nation military alliance “are working with the U.S. to understand the details of their decision on force posture in Germany.”

Iran and trade trouble

With the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran looking shakier, Rutte said European nations “have decided to pre-position assets, key assets, close to the theater for the next phase.” He provided no further details.

European leaders have insisted their countries would not help police the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy trade route, until the war is over.

“If the United States is ready to reopen Hormuz, that’s great. That’s what we’ve been asking for since the beginning,” said French President Emmanuel Macron. But he underlined that Europeans are not ready to get involved in any operation “that does not seem clear.”

Carlson and Cook write for the Associated Press. Cook reported from Brussels. AP writer Geir Moulson in Berlin contributed to this report.

The United States has transferred 22 crew members from the Iranian container ship, the Touska, to Pakistan, in what Islamabad describes as a “confidence-building measure” during tension in the Strait of Hormuz.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesman, Captain Tim Hawkins, said the crew had been handed over for repatriation. Pakistan’s foreign ministry confirmed the transfer, saying the sailors would be returned to Iranian authorities.

The Touska was seized by US forces in the Gulf of Oman in the early hours of April 20, in what Tehran described as an act of “piracy”, after the US declared a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran had effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz following the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

On Monday, tensions continued to escalate in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

First, US President Donald Trump announced that US naval ships would help guide stranded vessels through the strait in an operation he dubbed “Project Freedom”.

Iran issued a new map of the strait with new boundaries further to the east, and warned shipping not to attempt to pass without coordinating with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Then, state media reported that two Iranian missiles struck a US naval vessel near Jask Island in the strait after ignoring warnings from the IRGC to turn back. Washington denied any attack.

Amid continued interceptions and seizures of vessels by both sides, questions remain over whether the two countries can de-escalate and reach a broader peace agreement. Pakistan has been central to these efforts, seeking to keep diplomatic channels open, but talks hosted in Islamabad last month ended without a breakthrough.

Iran’s foreign ministry says it is reviewing Washington’s response to its 14-point proposal aimed at ending the conflict sent via Pakistan on Friday. As Pakistan continues to mediate, Trump previously described Tehran’s offer as “unacceptable”.

What happened to the Touska?

The Iran-flagged Touska was seized by US forces in the Gulf of Oman, close to the Strait of Hormuz, on April 20 after Washington accused the crew of failing to comply with the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Shortly after midnight local time in Iran, CENTCOM said the USS Spruance fired its 5-inch (127mm) deck gun at the vessel’s engine room, disabling it.

According to the US military, the ship was attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz en route to Iran’s main commercial port, Bandar Abbas.

The Touska, a small container ship operated by the sanctioned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), was boarded near Iran’s Chabahar port. US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit captured the vessel after what CENTCOM said were repeated warnings over six hours.

Video released by the US military showed Marines descending from helicopters launched from the USS Tripoli and securing the Tusk.

Iran condemned the capture as a violation of international law and an act of “piracy“, before demanding the immediate release of the vessel and its crew.

What does the release of the Touska’s crew mean, diplomatically?

Pakistan has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, and is now framing the transfer of the Touska crew as a step towards de-escalation of tensions. In a statement, the Pakistani foreign ministry said the move reflected a “confidence-building measure” and reaffirmed its commitment to facilitating dialogue.

US and Iranian delegations met in Islamabad last month for their first talks since 1979. Although negotiations ended without a deal, they marked a rare moment of direct engagement.

Pakistan has since coordinated with regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Qatar and Egypt, while maintaining close communications with China, in an effort to build broader support for de-escalation.

In a call with Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, on Monday, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Ishaq Dar, reiterated that diplomacy remains the only viable path to stability. Tehran, in turn, acknowledged Islamabad’s mediation efforts.

Will this de-escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz?

There are not many signs that it will.

Indeed, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have continued to increase despite the release of the crew members.

Most notably, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard published a new map on Monday outlining what it claims is an expanded zone of control in the waterway, stretching from Iranian and Omani territory to include the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates as well.

Analysts say this new claim exceeds internationally recognised boundaries. The UAE has accused Iran of launching drones at an oil tanker linked to Abu Dhabi’s national energy company, while Washington has dismissed Iranian reports of an attack on a US warship as false.

Military analyst Alexandru Hudisteanu, a maritime security expert who served 13 years in the Romanian navy, told Al Jazeera on Monday that the conflicting claims reflect a broader test of resolve. “Any attempt to open the strait will likely be met with resistance from Iran,” he said, adding that Tehran views control of Hormuz as its primary leverage in negotiations.

Hudisteanu warned that the situation carries a high risk of miscalculation, with both sides continuing to operate in close proximity. For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is the “only leverage” it has for peace negotiations, Hudisteanu said.

Iranian analyst Foad Izadi argued that the ceasefire effectively collapsed when the US imposed its blockade, which he described as “an act of war”. He added that the targeting and seizure of ships along the Strait of Hormuz further undermined any notion of a truce.

“Attacking an Iranian ship’s engine is an act of war as well,” he added, despite the release of the Touska’s crew signalling some short-term goodwill between the US and Iran.

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s vow to shrink America’s military deployment in Germany has put a new spotlight on the U.S. role in Europe.

There are usually 80,000 to 100,000 troops on the continent, with more than 36,000 in Germany. The Pentagon announced Friday that it would remove 5,000 troops from Germany, and Trump said the next day that he would go “a lot further” than that.

The U.S. military presence is a legacy of World War II, when Americans helped stabilize and rebuild Europe, and the Cold War, when the troops served as a bulwark against Soviet expansion. More recently, the deployment has played a key role supporting operations in the Arctic, Africa and the Middle East including the current conflict with Iran.

But Trump has broken with years of bipartisan consensus, criticizing European allies in NATO and following through on threats to reduce the U.S. commitment to the continent’s security. The recent announcement comes after escalating tensions with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who last week said the U.S. was being “humiliated” by Iran and accused Washington of lacking a clear strategy.

Here’s a look at America’s current deployment in Europe and how it could change.

What to know about the U.S. defense posture in Europe

The U.S. European Command, created in 1947 and known as EUCOM, is one of 11 combat commands within the Defense Department, and covers some 50 countries and territories.

In addition to more than 36,000 troops in Germany, Italy hosts more than 12,000 and there’s another 10,000 in the United Kingdom, according to Pentagon numbers from December.

The Pentagon has offered few details about which troops or operations would be affected in the drawdown announced Friday.

The U.S. increased its European deployment after Russia launched its full-scale war on Ukraine four years ago. NATO allies like Germany have expected for over a year that these troops would be the first to leave.

European deployment has global role

Aside from its role as a deterrent to Russia, the U.S. military presence in Europe helps Washington project power across the globe.

U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who is the commander in Europe of both U.S. and NATO forces, reinforced the benefits of a strong footprint on the continent to the Senate Armed Services Committee in March.

“It is having capabilities in Europe, munitions in Europe that allow us to help U.S. Africa Command to target terrorists in Africa, or to help U.S. Central Command as they execute Operation Epic Fury,” he told lawmakers, referring to the Iran war. “The distances are shorter, it’s less expensive and it’s much easier to project power.”

Germany hosts the headquarters of the U.S. European and Africa commands, Ramstein Air Base and a medical center in Landstuhl, where casualties from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were treated. U.S. nuclear weapons are also stationed in the country.

The U.S. has approximately 100 nuclear bombs deployed to bases in Europe that would be delivered by aircraft, according to a March estimate from the Federation of American Scientists. The group’s report said the bombs are at bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, while it’s possible they’re also at a base in the United Kingdom.

A call to move U.S. forces further east in Europe

Even before Trump’s comment Saturday to reporters, Republican leaders of both armed services committees in Congress expressed concern about the Pentagon plan, warning a premature drawdown in Europe would send “the wrong signal to Vladimir Putin” as the Russian president continues his war in Ukraine.

Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi and Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama said troops should be shifted to bases in Eastern Europe rather than withdrawn.

The lawmakers also said allies have made “substantial investments to host U.S. troops.”

Wicker and Rogers said the Pentagon, following its announcement Friday, has also decided to cancel the planned deployment to Germany of one of the U.S. Army’s long-range fires battalions, which operate ground-launched missile systems.

Trump’s vision: DIY defense in Europe

As part of its National Defense Strategy announced in January — a sweeping document laying out a vision on everything from deterring China to defending against cyberattacks to disrupting Iran’s nuclear ambitions — the administration said Europe must do more for its own defense.

While “we are and will remain engaged in Europe, we must — and will — prioritize defending the U.S. Homeland and deterring China,” it said.

Among other things, the document noted that Europe’s economic power, while shrinking in relative terms globally, remains significant, and said that Germany’s economy alone “dwarfs that of Russia.”

“Fortunately, our NATO allies are substantially more powerful than Russia — it is not even close,” it said, noting a recent commitment among NATO allies to raise national defense spending to 5% of GDP in total, a push led by Trump.

What Germany has been doing to beef up its forces

Germany has moved to modernize its long-neglected military, or Bundeswehr, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That year, it set up a $117 billion special fund to boost Bundeswehr, much of which has been committed to procuring new equipment.

Late last year, Merz’s government announced plans to raise the number of military personnel to 260,000, up from about 180,000. In 2001, when Germany still had conscription, the headcount was 300,000 — more than a third of them conscripts.

Berlin says it will also need around 200,000 reservists, more than double the current figure.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, in comments to German news agency dpa after the Pentagon’s drawdown plan was announced Friday, acknowledged that Europe must take more responsibility for its own security — and said the Bundeswehr is growing, military equipment is being procured more quickly, and infrastructure is being developed.

Keaten and Finley write for the Associated Press. Keaten reported from Geneva.

“I have all the cards,” posted the White House on its X account on Sunday, alongside an image of President Donald Trump holding playing cards from the Uno game, in a message appearing to signal Washington’s confidence in its ongoing war on Iran.

Uno is a card game in which the winner is the first to get rid of all their cards.

The post came after Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that the US military would begin guiding ships stranded around the Strait of Hormuz by the war on Monday, in a sign that the conflict could further escalate, despite the near-month-long fragile ceasefire. Tehran has been effectively blocking nearly all shipping from the Gulf for more than two months, after the US and Israel attacked Iran two months ago, disrupting global energy supplies.

“We have told these countries that we will guide their ships safely out of these restricted waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business,” Trump said, dubbing the campaign “Project Freedom”. “They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders!”

The president added that US negotiators were engaged in “very positive discussions” with Tehran, which could lead to “something very positive” without further elaboration.

Iran, however, reacted by insisting that the security of the waterway was in the hands of its armed forces, and warned that “any safe passage and navigation in any situation” should be “carried out in coordination with the armed forces”.

On Monday, the Iranian Fars news agency reported that a US warship had been hit by two Iranian drones, the claim was denied by US Central Command.

So what leverage do the US and Iran hold over each other, and what happens next?

In response to Trump’s “I have all the cards” social media post, Iran’s Consulate General in Hyderabad, India, posted its own image on X.

“Yes, we have less cards,” Iran’s consulate in the Indian city of Hyderabad wrote on X, together with a photo of an Iranian military spokesperson holding four Uno cards compared to Trump’s five, pointing out that usually holding all the cards means you are losing, not winning, in the game of Uno.

In response to Trump’s “Project Freedom” declaration, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that ships deemed to be in breach of its rules in the Strait of Hormuz “will be stopped by force”, while insisting there has been no change in how it manages traffic through the strategic waterway.

On Monday, it issued a new map of the Strait of Hormuz with boundaries extending further to the east than its previous one, and said any ship travelling between the two sides must coordinate with the IRGC first.

“There has been no change in the management process of the Strait of Hormuz,” spokesperson Sardar Mohebbi said, adding that vessels that comply with the “transit protocols issued by the IRGC Navy” will be “safe and secure”.

“Other maritime movements that are contrary to the declared principles of the IRGC Navy will face serious risks. Violating vessels will be stopped by force,” he said.

What leverage does the US have over Iran?

Sanctions

The United States’ most enduring source of leverage over Iran remains its sanctions regime, which was launched in 1979 when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared Iran an Islamic Republic.

Successive US administrations over the past 47 years have hit Tehran with a series of financial restrictions targeting Iran’s banking, oil exports and access to international markets – the US says the sanctions are a response to Iran’s nuclear programme.

Sanctions have significantly constrained Iran’s economy, limiting government revenue and contributing to inflation and currency depreciation. Measures enforced through the US Treasury also deter other countries and companies from engaging with Iran, further strangling its economy.

The economic pressure has been central to US strategy towards Iran, particularly during its attempts to force Tehran back to negotiations over its nuclear programme, under both Democratic and Republican administrations.

Military power

Beyond economics, the US maintains overwhelming military superiority, especially air power. Aircraft carriers, long-range bombers and precision strike capabilities give Washington the ability to target Iranian infrastructure with relatively low risk to its own forces.

US bases across the Gulf, as well as military partnerships with regional allies – most notably Israel – reinforce this advantage.

American forces, together with the Israeli army, have killed more than 3,000 people, and struck thousands of sites across Iran in the current war, including Iran’s energy and nuclear sites.

Naval blockade

Since mid-April, the United States has enforced a widespread naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships. The operation began on April 13 after talks between Washington and Tehran collapsed, with US forces ordered to stop or divert vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports.

US forces have since intercepted or turned back dozens of ships, and seized a container ship, the Touska. On Monday, the US announced that its crew had been repatriated to Iran from Pakistan, where they were taken after their ship was captured in the Gulf of Oman last month.

According to Trump, the blockade is designed to choke Iran’s oil exports, its main revenue source.

US officials say the measures have severely disrupted Iran’s trade, which relies heavily on sea routes.

What leverage does Iran have?

Strait of Hormuz

The vital waterway is Iran’s most significant strategic asset, the narrow passage ships one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in peacetime.

Tehran has effectively closed the strait since the war began on February 28, sending global oil and gas prices soaring and energy markets into turmoil. Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to target shipping, seize vessels, or conduct military exercises, demonstrating its ability to close or restrict the strait.

The result is soaring energy prices globally, forcing many countries to implement severe austerity measures to soften the blow.

Last week in the US, the average price of a gallon (3.8 litres) of gasoline (petrol) rose to $4.30, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), up from less than $3 before the war.

Surging energy costs have driven up inflation and deepened economic uncertainty in the US, compounding Trump’s political troubles amid overwhelming disapproval for the war amongst Americans.

Even if the US does begin escorting ships through safely – the threat from mines or Iranian strikes may be enough to prevent tankers from attempting to sail, experts say. Insurance companies are also unlikely to underwrite voyages.

Regional allies

Iran’s network of allied groups across the Middle East is another asset that Tehran relies on heavily. These include armed groups in Iraq and Syria, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen

Through these groups, Iran has exerted pressure indirectly, targeting US interests and allies without engaging in direct confrontation.

One critical threat Iran has previously made is for the Houthis to disrupt shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb, another vital maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

The Houthis, an Iran-aligned group in Yemen, have previously targeted shipping in this area, most notably during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, further raising concerns about the security of global trade routes.

Roughly 4.2 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum liquids flowed through the strait in 2014, accounting for about five percent of global supply.

Cheap drones and cluster bombs

While nowhere near the military capabilities of the US, Iran’s investment in missile and drone programmes has proven to be an effective means of deterrence. That is particularly through its ability to threaten regional US bases and impose significant costs on regional countries hosting American assets involved in military operations against Tehran.

While the US undoubtedly has a more sophisticated and powerful arsenal at its disposal, the interceptors it uses to combat Iranian drones cost around $4 million each, while Iran’s Shahed drones can be mass-produced at $20-50,000 each.

Furthermore, Iran’s ballistic missiles have proved capable of breaching Israel’s much-lauded “Iron Dome” defence system on several occasions. Iran has also dropped cluster bombs, which divide before they can be intercepted, making them much harder to stop.

So does the US really hold the most cards?

Michael Clarke, visiting professor at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, said Trump’s overwhelming conventional military strength has failed to translate into strategic leverage on the ground.

“President Trump thinks he is a great poker player,” Clarke told Al Jazeera. “He thought America’s sheer destructive potential put all the ‘cards’ in his hand” when starting the war on Iran.

But Iranian forces have consistently disrupted US expectations through asymmetric tactics, he said.

“At every turn, the Iranians have come up with asymmetric tactics – vicious, reckless tactics – that have negated everything the Americans have tried to do,” Clarke noted, describing a pattern in which traditional US military superiority has been blunted by unconventional responses.

Despite significant American forces and assets in the region – including “no fewer than three US Carrier Strike Groups, two Marine Expeditionary Units, hundreds of combat aircraft and thousands of troops”, Clarke argued that Washington has struggled to find an effective use for its multi-billion-dollar resources at its disposal.

Moreover, he said, domestic pressure on Trump is growing. Trump “can’t find a way to use them [US forces] that will make any real difference to the current stalemate in the limited time he has before his own MAGA base concludes he has lost the game”.

Clarke also highlighted the willingness of Iran’s IRGC to escalate tensions. “Whatever this war might do to Iranian society, the IRGC is prepared to gamble with its own existence in the fight,” he added.

May 4 (UPI) — The Iranian military threatened Monday to attack U.S. forces if they attempt to implement U.S. President Donald Trump‘s “Project Freedom” to bring ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a statement carried by state-run broadcaster IRIB, the commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the Iranian military’s central command, warned the Americans not to approach the strait and that no vessels would be permitted to transit safely without Iran’s permission.

The statement also appeared to threaten Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf and other allies of the United States.

“Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz. Any foreign armed force, especially the aggressive American army, will be attacked if they intend to approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz. Supporters of the evil America should be careful and not do anything that will lead to irreparable regret, because America’s aggressive action to disrupt the current situation will have no result other than complicating the situation and jeopardizing the security of vessels in this area,” said central command chief, Maj. Gen. Ali Abdullahi.

“In any circumstances, any safe passage through this strait will be carried out in coordination with the Armed Forces,” added Abdullahi.

The warning came hours after Trump announced plans to use U.S. military assets deployed in the region, including guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms and 15,000 marines, to “guide” ships and crews “safely out of the Strait.”

U.S. Central Command confirmed in a news release posted on X that the operation to restore freedom of navigation for all commercial shipping, with the exception of vessels servicing Iran, would get underway on Monday.

“The mission, directed by the president, will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor. A quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait. Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” said U.S. CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper.

The developments came as two ships, an oil tanker and a bulk carrier, were attacked near the strait on Sunday.

However, it was unclear how effective the operation might be with Copenhagen-headquartered BIMCO, the world’s largest international shipping association, with more than 2,000 members across 130 countries, telling the BBC that while much depended on the “risk appetite” of individual ship owners, it couldn’t see how an evacuation could work without agreement from Iran.

As many as 20,000 merchant sailors are languishing aboard 2,000 commercial ships marooned in the Persian Gulf by Iran’s effective closure of the Hormuz Strait, according to the U.N.’s International Maritime Organization, which Friday adopted a resolution condemning attacks on shipping that “threaten the welfare of seafarers, represented a grave danger to life and posed a serious risk to the marine environment.”

Iranian state media says two missiles have struck a US navy destroyer to prevent it entering the Strait of Hormuz after the warship ignored warnings to halt. The attack comes after US President Donald Trump announced a naval mission to ‘guide’ stranded ships through the strait.

The US president has accused some NATO countries of not doing enough to support the US-Israel war on Iran.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte says European leaders have “gotten the message” after United States President Donald Trump announced plans to withdraw 5,000 soldiers from Germany.

Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with NATO allies, accusing them of not doing enough to support the US-Israel war on Iran. Speaking on Monday, Rutte acknowledged “disappointment from the US side”.

“European leaders have gotten the message. They heard the message loud and clear,” Rutte said before a European Political Community meeting in Armenia.

“Europeans are stepping up, a bigger role for Europe and a stronger NATO,” he added.

The Pentagon announced the troop withdrawal from Germany on Friday, days after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Iran was humiliating the US during the negotiations aimed at ending the war.

The European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, called the announcement’s timing a “surprise”.

“I think it shows that we have to really strengthen the European pillar in NATO, and we have to really do more,” Kallas said while stressing that “American troops are not in Europe only for protecting European interests but also American interests.”

Over the weekend, NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said officials in the 32-nation military alliance “are working with the US to understand the details of their decision on force posture in Germany”.

‘Dangerous military intervention’

European criticism of the war on Iran has mounted in recent weeks as the conflict sends shockwaves through the global economy due to the continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, Merz compared the war to previous military quagmires, such as the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.

“It is, at the moment, a pretty tangled situation,” he said. “And it is costing us a great deal of money. This conflict, this war against Iran, has a direct impact on our economic output.”

Spain has refused to let the US launch attacks on Iran from its airspace or military bases. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has condemned the war as “unjustified” and a “dangerous military intervention” outside the realm of international law.

In response, Trump called Spain “terrible” and threatened to end all trade ties.

Despite this, Rutte said “more and more” European nations were now pre-positioning assets such as minehunters and minesweepers close to the Gulf to be ready for the “next phase” in the war.

He provided no details, and European nations have previously insisted they would not help to police the Strait of Hormuz until the war is over.

Increased defence spending

Many European countries have committed to ramping up defence spending in the face of fears over Trump’s commitment to NATO and Russia’s assault on Ukraine – a push underscored by several leaders in the Armenian capital.

“Europeans are taking their destiny into their own hands, increasing their defence and security spending, and building their own common solutions,” French President Emmanuel Macron said.

“We have to step up our military capabilities to be able to defend and protect ourselves,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters.