conflict

Gaza City, Gaza Strip – The partially collapsed roof above Masada Abu Jarad’s apartment is now made up of broken concrete with twisted steel bars protruding from its edges.

And underneath the section of the room that is now open to the elements after the building’s partial collapse, Masada’s family have pitched a tent to provide shelter.

The 60-year-old knows the structure is dangerous. The Palestinian Red Crescent and the Civil Defence visited the family last week and warned them that they should leave. But in Gaza, where Israel refuses to allow proper reconstruction to take place after almost three years of its genocidal war, there are few places for them to go.

“We have no options,” Masada says. “I want to leave, but who will give me an alternative?”

She has lived in the building in Gaza City’s Palestine Square area for the past year, after returning to northern Gaza from displacement earlier in the war. But this still isn’t home. Masada’s family is originally from Beit Lahiya in the far north of the Strip, but had to leave early in the war after Israel decimated the area. They are still unable to return.

After repeated displacement, the prospect of moving again without a safe destination has become exhausting. And even if they could move, the cost is prohibitive.

“Even if there is a better place, tell me how I can afford to rent it,” Masada said.

Masada’s experience reflects a wider housing crisis across Gaza for the Palestinians who have survived Israel’s war, which has killed more than 73,000 Palestinians.

A joint assessment by the United Nations, World Bank, and European Union found that 371,888 housing units, 76.6 percent of the housing stock, had been destroyed or damaged as of October 2025. The assessment also found that rebuilding Gaza will need more than $71bn over the next decade.

The dangers of Gaza’s depleted and damaged housing stock became starkly visible on September 16, when a six-storey war-damaged residential building in Gaza City collapsed, killing 21 people, including 12 children, according to the UN and Gaza Civil Defence.

The collapse has become a warning for families living in other damaged structures.

‘I stay awake so they can sleep’

Abdullah Abu Hajar, 40, lives with his wife and five children in the al-Najma building in Gaza City’s southern Remal neighbourhood.

The six-storey building is severely damaged and unstable. About 17 families, roughly 50 to 60 people, are living there, according to Abdullah.

On the outside walls, municipal notices warn residents and passers-by that the building is unsafe and at risk of collapse.

At night, while his wife and children try to sleep, Abdullah stays awake and listens.

Every unfamiliar sound, such as concrete shifting, stones moving or an unexplained creaking somewhere inside the building, puts him on alert.

“I stay awake all night, keeping watch,” he said. “I can’t close my eyes. I keep just listening to sounds around me.”

Abdullah explained that he feels worried for his children, even though they have adapted to the danger. But he has not.

And after the September 16 building collapse, he grew even more fearful. Since then, he said, he has barely slept.

“I’m already on edge,” he said. “But I don’t know where I can go.”

Abdullah and his family were displaced from Beit Hanoon in northern Gaza after it was attacked by Israel, and moved repeatedly during the war, eventually finding the al-Najma building.

His extended family faces the same uncertainty. Abdullah said that one of his relatives has been moving between southern and northern Gaza, looking for a place where he can pitch a tent.

“I told him to come and stay with us,” Abdullah said. “But he is hesitant because of the condition of this building. At the same time, he has nowhere else to go.”

A room among the rubble

For Islam Hassanein, 36, the same fears are entwined with the place she calls home.

A mother of five, Islam has spent nearly a year living with her family in a single room on the third floor of a damaged building.

She found the room after searching for somewhere to stay. It was filled with rubble and debris.

“We cleaned it and stayed in it,” she said.

The building is leaning and visibly damaged. The plumbing doesn’t work, so the family uses a bathroom outside. There is little that resembles a family home.

But leaving has proved no easier than staying. “We keep looking, but we can’t find anywhere,” she says. “They might even force us out of here. What are we supposed to do?”

Islam says she would leave immediately if she were offered a safe place.

“If they find us a good place and provide us with a tent, we will leave from the morning,” she says. “But where is this place? And where is the tent?”

The building itself regularly reminds her of the dangers.

“Every day, you hear the cracking,” she says. “People who live here tell us, ‘It’s cracking.’ Then a column fell, and they took us out of the building temporarily.”

The potentially deadly risks will become harder to manage as winter approaches, with its colder and wetter weather.

Water can enter through exposed roofs and walls, and the already weakened structure will face additional pressure from heavy rain.

“Last winter was terrifying,” Islam said. “We were constantly afraid that the building would collapse. I spent most days in my family’s tent because this building was full of openings and would flood whenever it rained.”

“Now, I am very afraid of this winter, and I don’t know what we are going to do.”

The UN says thousands of people are sheltering in damaged buildings considered unsafe because better housing options are unavailable.

Israeli restrictions on the entry of tents, tarpaulins and other essential shelter materials are making the situation more difficult, leaving Gaza in a state of limbo, unable to move on from the war, particularly as Israel can choose to escalate the conflict at any time.

UNICEF estimates that nearly 84 percent of Gaza’s population, more than 1.76 million people, are living in overcrowded displacement sites or damaged and inadequate shelters, with little protection from cold, heavy rain and flooding.

Islam says the war has forced families to take risks they once would have considered unthinkable.

She worries about her five children, but sees few choices available to her.

“They are all afraid,” she said. “But what can we do? If there is an alternative, I will leave. We leave it to God.”

Civilians and senior military officials among 14 dead after an army plane crashes into a residential area in the DRC.

At least 14 people, including senior military officials, were killed on Friday when a Congolese army plane crashed in the southwest of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

The plane was travelling to the capital, Kinshasa, from the southwestern city of Kikwit on Friday when it developed a technical fault and attempted to land in Kenge, in Kwango province.

Remy Saki Bokinda, deputy governor of Kwango, said: “With no landing strip available in Kenge, the plane crashed into a residential plot.”

Congolese military spokesperson Major-General Efomi Ekenge said 14 people had died in the crash.

“All those on board died; 12 were burned beyond recognition, while the pilot’s lifeless body was found outside the aircraft,” he said.

According to the military, among those killed were civilians and members of an official delegation travelling with the two generals, along with other military personnel.

Bokinda also said most of the bodies were burned beyond recognition and the pilot was found dead outside the wreckage.

An investigation has been opened to determine the cause of the accident, Ekenge said.

The DRC, a vast, mineral-rich country in central Africa, has endured decades of conflict, particularly along its eastern border with Rwanda, where several armed groups compete for control of lucrative mining areas.

The Congolese military has been battling a number of rebel groups that have claimed key cities in the country since last year.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam wants US-brokered ceasefire to be consolidated and for Israel to retreat.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has called for an end to the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon and the full enforcement of the ceasefire, as Israeli shelling and demolitions continue.

“We want the war to end and we want the ceasefire [with Israel] consolidated,” Salam said in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Friday.

The prime minister demanded a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory up to its internationally recognised border and the release of all Lebanese detainees.

As delegates gathered to listen to Salam, on the ground in Lebanon, Israeli forces carried out a large explosion near Taybeh and Deir Siryan, while an Israeli air strike targeted a valley between Froun and Ghandourieh, triggering a large fire.

Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from Froun, said the reality on the ground is that the conflict is far from over.

“From the ground here in Froun, we can still see Israeli warplanes and drones flying at low altitudes in the skies above and Israeli artillery shelling is still causing uncontrollable fires. Lebanese civil defence and firefighters are not being allowed by the Israelis to reach these areas and put out the flames,” she said.

“More than 60 towns in southern Lebanon are still occupied by the Israeli army, where the Israelis are carrying out a systematic campaign of demolitions,” Khodr added.

Israeli forces are “blowing up people’s homes, despite the framework agreement in which there is supposed to be a ceasefire that they have signed with the Lebanese government,” she said.

Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon have killed at least 4,386 people and wounded 12,407 others since March 2 , when the current Hezbollah-Israel war started. Since then, Israeli forces have occupied up to 600sq km of Lebanese territory up to the Litani River.

A US-brokered framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel in June provides for a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory and the deployment of the Lebanese army in areas vacated by Israeli forces.

Speaking at the UNGA, Salam said his government had entered into negotiations with Israel, mediated by the United States and President Donald Trump, “to end the war and restore Lebanon’s sovereignty”, adding that the success of any agreement is measured not by intentions but by fulfilment of commitments.

“What is required is to complete the translation of this agreement into practical steps within a clear timetable and with a verification mechanism that ensures the implementation of all its provisions,” he said.

He focused on state sovereignty, saying it “cannot be untouchable in one place and negotiable in another, nor can the rules of international law apply to some but not to others”.

Salam also pledged to oversee the disarmament of Hezbollah in exchange for Israel’s eventual full withdrawal, also saying “weapons must be exclusively in the hands of the state and that decisions on war and peace rest solely with its constitutional institutions”.

Stability in the Middle East can only come with respect for Palestinian rights, he said.

“There can be no lasting stability in Lebanon without lasting stability in our region, and there can be no stability in the region as long as this organisation [the UN] remains unable to enable the Palestinian people to exercise their inalienable right to self-determination, like all other peoples of the world,” Salam said. “No less and no more.”

Tigray was cutoff from the world during the 2020-2022 civil war, which killed around 600,000 people.

Fears of a communications blackout in northern Ethiopia have increased as fighting flares between the federal military and forces from the Tigray region and ⁠their allies.

Telecom and internet networks were reported to have stopped working on Friday as the conflict threatened to develop across the country into a full-scale war.

The interruptions have provoked fears of a repeat of the communications blackout and supplies blockade during the 2020-2022 civil war in ⁠northern Ethiopia, when Tigray was largely cut off from the outside world.

Web monitor NetBlocks said it had detected an “internet disruption in northern Ethiopia corresponding to reports of a telecoms blackout in Tigray”.

The Reuters news agency reported that Tigray’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, had ordered private operator Safaricom and state-owned Ethio telecom to cut off access ⁠to phone and internet networks in the region.

Full-scale war

A source said the restrictions may be part of a tactic to neutralise the advantage of government forces using battlefield drones.

Lower-level clashes between federal and Tigrayan forces have been ongoing for some time. However, fighting intensified this week across Tigray and later spread to the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, after seven armed groups announced they have formed an alliance.

The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival has committed itself to removing the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The Tigray Army said the federal government had launched a “full-scale offensive” involving infantry, mechanised units and drones, and said its forces had begun what they called a defensive war to counter aggression by Abiy’s government.

The alliance forces have seized three airports and launched attacks against ⁠federal troops in Afar and Amhara.

The ⁠federal government has accused Eritrea of financially backing the TPLF and its allies, which leaders in the capital Asmara deny.

Abdisalam Balema, a member of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) central committee, told Al Jazeera that the situation has become a “full war”.

The outbreak of violence is the most serious escalation ⁠since the civil war in 2020-2022. During that conflict, which killed an estimated 600,000 people, the telecoms blackout and supplies blockade imposed on Tigray caused famine-like conditions for hundreds of thousands of people.

People in Tigray are reported to have rushed to stock up on basic supplies and withdraw cash.

The renewed fighting comes at an awkward moment for the United States, which only this month lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last civil war, saying the “national emergency… has expired”.

The conflict could also draw in neighbouring Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade it to gain access to the Red Sea.

France is sending its military to protect key Yanbu oil terminal; Pakistan and Turkiye to hold military talks with Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia’s allies are rallying to support the country as the Houthi rebels step up attacks.

France confirmed on Friday that it is sending troops to guard the major oil terminal at Yanbu. Meanwhile, Saudi officials are meeting with peers from Pakistan and Turkiye to discuss options under their mutual defence pact.

French President Emmanuel Macron told broadcasters TF1 and France 2 that Paris is to send “soldiers, radars, and defence systems” to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

“Not to involve ourselves in any conflict, but to protect the site,” he said.

Yanbu hosts major oil storage and refining facilities and is connected by the East-West Pipeline, which can carry up to seven million barrels a day.

The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (supporters of God), have repeatedly fired missiles and drones into Saudi Arabia, disrupting oil flows from the world’s largest energy exporter.

On Thursday, the rebel group said it had struck the facilities of state oil firm Aramco in Yanbu, and a “sensitive target” in Riyadh. Saudi forces said they had intercepted six ballistic missiles. Authorities have not confirmed any damage.

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye met on Thursday to arrange an “urgent meeting” of their military chiefs of staff under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all, the Saudi foreign ministry said in a statement.

They also condemned Houthi attacks that they claimed targeted Mecca and other civilian sites.

However, doubt persists over what action Turkiye and Pakistan might take under the pact, which is yet to be officially triggered. Both of the Saudi allies are heavily involved as mediators seeking to bring an end to the conflicts across the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia’s grand mufti called on soldiers to be ready to lay down their lives to fight the Houthis, according to the Saudi state news agency.

The Iran-aligned Houthis have been battling the Saudi-backed government of Yemen for more than a decade. That conflict has been rekindled amid Israel’s wars against the Iran-aligned Hamas group in Gaza and the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, and the United States war on Iran.

At the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Yemen’s Vice President Abdullah Abdulkader al-Alimi-Bawzer warned that the Houthis were using shipping security “as a tool for blackmail”.

“It is taking hostage the entire global economy,” he said.

The US has not renewed military involvement, but Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said the kingdom was “continuing to work with our partners in the US”.

The Houthi targeting of Yanbu adds to the pressure on Saudi Arabia’s oil exports.

Earlier this month, the Houthis seized the Yemeni port of Mocha and several Red Sea islands, giving them significant control over the Bab al-Mandeb strait, which usually carries about 12 percent of global oil trade.

Strikes have also disrupted the operation of the East-West Pipeline linking Yanbu to export routes. Riyadh had been using it to export crude bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, which is restricted amid the Iran-US war.

However, the Houthis have now forced the Saudis to switch some exports back to Hormuz.

Brent crude rose more than 3 percent on Thursday, briefly topping $108 a barrel, before easing to $105.77 on Friday morning.

June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities in Singapore, said oil would likely stay above $100 a barrel as long as the war on Iran continued.

“With no clear resolution in sight, the gap in oil inventories globally is getting wider,” Goh told Al Jazeera.

Pakistani security forces report ongoing cross-border fire in latest escalation in fighting between the neighbours.

Pakistan has foiled an “attempted Afghan aggression” on the Pakistan-Afghan border.

Pakistani security sources said several Afghan members of the Taliban were killed in an intermittent exchange of fire in the Gulistan area of the border on Friday and that fighting was ongoing.

There has been no official confirmation from either country involved.

The Afghan government said on Thursday that it would deliver an “appropriate response” to Pakistani air attacks on 10 locations in Afghanistan earlier in the day.

The strikes were in response to a “deliberate and unlawful incursion into Pakistan by drones” on Wednesday, Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said on Thursday.

Tarar said in a post on his X account that Pakistan’s aerial and drone attacks hit “terrorist hideouts and support infrastructure including drone launching and storage sites”.

He also posted a video said to show the military strikes on the Afghan sites.

Afghanistan’s government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said the air strikes targeted Kandahar, Paktia and Khost provinces.

Taliban officials denied that their government launched drones against Pakistan on Wednesday.

The air raids on Thursday were carried out amid growing tensions between the former allies over attacks by armed groups in Pakistan, which triggered their worst fighting in years in February.

Islamabad accuses Kabul of harbouring fighters who stage cross-border attacks, but Afghanistan’s government denies harbouring anti-Pakistani armed groups and says the attacks are Pakistan’s internal problem.

The escalation threatens mediation efforts by China, Turkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to broker a lasting peace between the two neighbours.

Flights operated by Iranian airlines to and from the UAE suspended as part of broader efforts to enforce US aviation sanctions on Iran.

The United Arab Emirates has halted flights operated by Iranian airlines, joining several other countries in adopting United States sanctions aimed at pressuring Tehran’s aviation sector.

On Thursday, a statement carried by the Emirati WAM news agency said, “The General Civil Aviation Authority announced the suspension of all flights operated by Iranian airlines to and from the UAE.”

It said the decision was “based on the US sanctions imposed on Iranian airlines preventing them from using airports around the world”.

The UAE has joined Oman, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkmenistan in restricting or suspending access for Iranian airlines amid the new US sanctions threat.

Dubai, the UAE’s commercial hub, is a major destination for Iranian carriers, with multiple daily flights, a large Iranian community and close business links.

An Iran Airtour flight from Tehran to Dubai was cancelled shortly before its scheduled departure on Thursday morning, after tickets had already been issued, according to the AFP news agency.

The UAE, which was repeatedly hit by Iranian missiles and drones throughout the US-Israel war on Iran, suspended trade and financial exchanges with Iran last month.

On Wednesday, the UAE’s central bank blocked transactions involving Iran’s Bank Melli, claiming the financial institution had violated rules on money laundering, terrorism and arms proliferation.

The US Treasury announced sweeping sanctions on Iran’s aviation sector earlier this month, targeting 27 airlines and dozens of companies that support them. The measures aim to cut off Iran’s air links entirely, warning that any airport or company still servicing Iranian carriers risks being cut off from the US dollar system.

Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization spokesman Majid Akhavan said: “Diplomatic and aviation talks are under way to remove the restrictions and restore flights” to the UAE.

Akhavan added that Turkmenistan also turned back a flight from Tehran to Dushanbe on Thursday.

“Turkmenistan’s refusal to allow the Iranian aircraft to pass through its airspace meant the flight could not continue on its route and had to return,” Akhavan told the Iranian IRNA news agency.

Several smaller Iranian airlines continue flying to China and Armenia, both of which have resisted US pressure, while routes to Turkiye remain open for some carriers.

Macklemore says ‘being apolitical during a genocide doesn’t work’, promises to donate proceeds to Palestinian causes.

Grammy Award-winning rapper Macklemore has announced a string of shows in support of Palestine after he was controversially dropped from Ed Sheeran’s United States tour after speaking out against Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

The 43-year-old American rapper, who has almost 40 million monthly listeners on Spotify, announced his Free Palestine Tour on Thursday, with shows set to take place in Dublin, Paris and London in late October.

Macklemore said he will be joined by other musicians and will announce their names soon. He added that US shows are currently being organised.

He said all proceeds raised from the tour will be donated to causes supporting the Palestinian people and the wider movement.

“If these last couple of weeks have shown us anything, it’s that something has shifted over the last three years,” Macklemore said in a statement.

“There has been a collective awakening around Palestinian liberation, the power of billionaires that try to censor that call, and what we expect from artists right now. It’s 2026. Being apolitical during a genocide doesn’t work anymore,” he continued.

“People are asking artists to show up, educate themselves and be in community. To use the stage for more than entertainment. To push back when the call for a Free Palestine is met with attempts to silence it.”

English punk rap duo Bob Vylan have expressed their support for the tour, responding to Macklemore’s Instagram post with a heart emoji. The British YouTuber and influencer known as Chunkz, who has more than four million followers on Instagram, also praised Macklemore.

Attempts to silence Macklemore

On September 4 at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium, Macklemore, who was one of Sheeran’s opening acts, expressed support for Palestine.

“A big part of the reason why I wanted to do this tour in the first place is so I could stand up in stadiums like this and say two words that are very near and dear to my heart: ‘Free Palestine’ … My message is for peace; love for all human beings to be treated with dignity, respect, and equality,” Macklemore told the audience at the time.

Soon after, the rapper announced that he had been dropped from the Sheeran tour.

Venue owner Robert Kraft later confirmed that Macklemore was barred from performing at his Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Kraft denounced what he described as the rapper’s “broader history of antisemitic rhetoric and imagery” and argued that such actions led him to decide that allowing Macklemore to perform at his venue “would cross that line”.

Kraft is a Jewish-American billionaire and has donated to several Israeli causes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is the subject of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity, said in 2019 that Israel did not have a “more loyal friend” than Kraft.

Macklemore claimed Sheeran and his team removed him from the tour following pressure from Kraft.

He alleged that Kraft rallied the owners of the remaining stadiums that the tour would include and persuaded them not to allow him to perform. The rapper said that Kraft then told Sheeran the tour would not go ahead unless he was dropped.

Neither Kraft nor Sheeran have commented on Macklemore’s allegations that stadium owners were contacted by Kraft.

Tigray People’s Liberation Front says in a ‘situation of full-blown war’ with Ethiopia’s government.

Ethiopia’s army says it has killed at least 272 fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in a counter-offensive in the country’s northwest Amhara region.

The Ethiopian National Defence Force said on Thursday that another 260 Tigrayan fighters were wounded and several were captured.

“Government forces launched a counter-offensive that inflicted heavy personnel and equipment losses on the TPLF” after the group and its allies attacked several areas of North Wollo, a region of Amhara that borders Tigray, the army said in a statement on Facebook.

The intensification came days after TPLF and six other armed groups from across Ethiopia announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, which committed itself to removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

The coalition brought together the newly-formed Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army and other movements from the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regional states.

‘Full-blown war’

“We are in the situation of full-blown war now,” TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa told AFP news agency on Thursday.

He confirmed that Tigrayan forces were fighting alongside local armed groups in Afar and Amhara.

The alliance marks a striking realignment that had been almost a year in the making, bringing together armed groups with very different histories and grievances against the central government, including forces with histories of conflict among themselves.

In a statement issued as the fighting widened on Wednesday, the alliance said the federal government was attacking its forces on several fronts and presented their response as part of the broader struggle that had brought the coalition together.

Meanwhile, the escalation has disrupted air travel, as Tigrayan forces seized three local airports in the region.

Flights to Lalibela, a UNESCO-listed site in Amhara known for its medieval rock-hewn churches, were suspended on Thursday, according to Reuters news agency.

AFP also received reports of fighting around Lalibela, causing its airport to close. The area has often been targeted by the Fano, a local armed group that is now operating alongside the TPLF.

Wider regional rivalries

TPLF last went ⁠to war with the Ethiopian federal government in 2020, leading to a devastating two-year conflict that ended with a peace deal in 2022.

In his address at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Ethiopia’s President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde blamed the escalation on “the forces of destruction and mayhem” and “interference in our internal affairs by adversarial elements”.

He said Ethiopia had exercised “immense restraint” and made progress with its neighbours.

Analysts say the Tigray rebels have support from Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade its territory to gain access to the Red Sea.

The TPLF’s Assefa told AFP “we have no information about Eritrea’s plan”. Asked if they would request Eritrean intervention, he said: “Not yet.”

Ethiopia’s domestic conflicts are becoming harder to separate from wider rivalries in the Horn of Africa, particularly Addis Ababa’s deteriorating relationship with Eritrea and Sudan’s civil war.

Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has visited Asmara twice since July for talks with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, while Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, reportedly visited Addis Ababa in late August.

The red carpet was rolled out, and a trade truce was extended. Yet, beneath the pomp and pageantry of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit with US leader Donald Trump on Thursday, Washington and Beijing remain locked in a much deeper strategic rivalry.

Xi arrived in Washington, DC on Wednesday evening for talks on Thursday, and Trump was there to meet him personally on the tarmac.

The meeting was the first state visit by a Chinese leader to the US in 11 years. But it is also the third time in less than a year that the two men have met face to face, as the two powers remain uneasily gridlocked in competition over AI, rare-earth metals, the question of Taiwan, and the Iran war.

Overhanging it all is the paused, but simmering, trade war between their two nations.

Almost as soon as Trump began his second term in the White House in January 2025, up went tariffs on Chinese goods as he accused China of facilitating the flow of fentanyl, a deadly drug, to the US. Beijing responded with its own levies, then restricted exports of valuable rare-earth metals which are crucial for the development and manufacture of everything high-tech, from smartphones to fighter jets. At one point, tariffs were heading towards 150 percent before being paused to allow time for talks.

Finally, the two leaders called a truce on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea on October 30, and they met once more, in May, when Trump travelled to Beijing.

As Xi landed in Washington on Wednesday this week, the Trump administration announced that the two countries had agreed to extend an October 2025 truce which had offered some respite from the punishing tariffs, produced an agreement from China to buy more soyabeans from the US and delayed the ban on rare-earth exports from China until January 10. The prospect of a much-longed-for trade deal appeared to be in the air when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News he had met Chinese ‌Vice Premier He Lifeng before Xi’s visit to “see if we could ⁠do a bigger deal as opposed to just a series ⁠of smaller things”.

But analysts have, for the most part, shot down such hopes. Beyond tariffs, they say, the simmering conflict between the two powers now encompasses new US sanctions on buyers of Russian oil – namely China – and sweeping investment and research restrictions, never mind the intensifying race for dominance in artificial intelligence.

“The two-month extension isn’t a bridge to a grand bargain – it’s a temporary sandbag holding back a structural flood,” Beijing-based Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation, told Al Jazeera.

Theatrics or continued thaw in tensions?

In fact, the truce is little more than “transactional theatre” – an attempt at good optics before the upcoming US midterm elections – Tangen said.

Trump’s deeply unpopular war on Iran has already inflicted severe damage to his chances in that vote. Democrats are leading in the polls amid concerns about the rising cost of energy, triggered by the war which the US started. Trump ultimately needs wins on other issues.

The current truce with China serves a purpose, therefore, but is fragile enough to be undone the moment political utility shifts for Trump, Tangen said.

“Success in January won’t be measured by what is solved, but by whether the knot is left tight enough to hold, but not kill,” said Tangen.

Phillippe Le Corre, professor of international relations and Asian studies at France’s ESSEC Business School, said the length of the truce extension indicates clearly that a more permanent deal remains out of grasp.

“The extensions are getting shorter and shorter, which means they haven’t found a common ground on many issues,” Le Corre told Al Jazeera.

“The two-month extension is a terrible outcome for the US. Nothing is resolved, and many Damocles’ swords are still hanging over Washington’s head,” he added.

Trump’s entire China policy, Le Corre argued, is in fact short-sighted. “That is bringing the world a lot of uncertainty,” he said.

Some analysts are more hopeful, but not much. Sun Chenghao, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, described the extension of the trade truce as a “useful interim step”. It shows that both sides want to preserve the recent easing of tensions, which is meaningful progress, he said.

“From China’s perspective, a sustainable agreement needs reciprocal benefits and greater policy predictability,” Sun told Al Jazeera. “Additional purchases cannot indefinitely compensate for uncertainty over tariffs, technology restrictions and market access.”

The extension’s value, however, will depend on whether it produces “concrete commitments” from Beijing and Washington, Sun added.

A game of ‘economic chicken’

There is motivation to get a deal done, analysts say. Any escalation in the US-China trade war will be costly for both sides.

But there is some way to go. A Congressional Research Service report in July 2026 noted that Chinese goods exported to the US still face tariffs of 36.5 percent, while US goods entering China are taxed at 31 percent.

Any higher, and they will raise import and manufacturing costs in the US, squeeze margins and increase pressure on consumer prices, said Sun. They would also hurt US farmers and industrial exporters, he added, just as the US faces pressure from the rising costs of its war on Iran, which have pushed it into a record national debt of $40 trillion two years earlier than expected.

“Washington is playing a high-stakes game of economic chicken with a $40 trillion debt load, an inflationary sword of Damocles, zero fiscal cushion to absorb a truce collapse and a dependence [on] Chinese industrial and manufacturing inputs,” Tangen said.

US consumers and the economy in general will find it tough to survive yet another inflationary shock from renewed tariffs “at a time when the federal budget already operates like a high-wire Ponzi scheme”.

Then there is the AI race, which no one can afford to lose. According to Jon Bateman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a partial “decoupling” of US and Chinese technology ecosystems is under way. US policymakers have pushed to become less dependent on Chinese tech and “to secure America’s technological future in the context of a rising China”, Bateman writes.

But that will not help if there is a collapse in valuations of companies in the AI sector, which currently drive global stock markets. An AI valuation collapse, Tangen warned, “could trigger a financial tsunami that makes 2008 look tame – making technological decoupling meaningless as the world is plunged into a depression”.

Despite the trade war and Trump’s tariffs, China’s trade with other countries has risen sharply, with the country registering a $1.2 trillion global trade surplus last year. But an escalation of the trade war with the US would nevertheless spell increased pressure on export orders, employment in exposed industries and business confidence, said Sun.

Beijing does hold one crucial ace card – it is sitting on 60 percent of the world’s known deposits of rare-earth minerals, said Le Corre. It processes 90 percent of them, too. These are the metals that all countries need supplies of for semiconductors, technological components and the manufacture of weapons, to name but a few. Last year, China began to make use of that leverage by restricting exports of five of the 12 rare-earth metals it mines in April. Then, in October, it prepared to restrict seven more – until the trade truce happened. Plans for the export restrictions are not shelved, however, merely on hold.

“[China] understood this over the past year and they are certainly not going to give up on this,” said Le Corre.

“Washington is hostile, but it is hooked,” Tangen said. “You cannot threaten China with secondary sanctions on energy while desperately needing its rare-earths to fuel your military-industrial base.”

A drawn-out path to durability

The path to a lasting US-China trade deal will be long and rocky. First, any new tariff reductions will need more coverage and duration, said Sun.

For a deal to last, it would also require “more predictable licensing and actual deliveries of rare earths and critical minerals; restraint in expanding technology restrictions; and market access reflected in regulatory approvals and completed transactions”, he said.

A durable agreement also needs regular consultations and a process for resolving complaints. If all this can be hammered out then, just maybe, there might be a chance, Sun said.

Tangen and Le Corre were less optimistic, however. “The US view of China as an existential threat has to change before there can be solutions,” said Tangen.

Le Corre, meanwhile, said that while China is a long-term planner, “durable is a word that can hardly be associated with Trump.”

The existing trade truce also risks breaking down if there are new unilateral tariffs, broader technology or mineral restrictions, or disputes over whether commitments have been fulfilled, said Sun.

Tensions over Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, but for which the US approved an $11.1bn arms sale in December last year, could also trigger a breakdown in trade relations, the analysts said.

“Taiwan remains the ultimate low-probability, catastrophic-impact tail risk – where a single round of arms sales can snap a multibillion-dollar trade truce in an instant,” Tangen noted.

No response by Yemen’s Houthis to a claim by the coalition forces that its missiles targeted Taif and Yanbu.

Saudi-led coalition forces fighting Yemen’s Houthis say they have intercepted six ballistic missiles allegedly fired by the Iran-allied group towards cities in Saudi Arabia.

The missiles were destroyed on Thursday in the direction of the Saudi cities of Taif and the strategically important port of Yanbu, according to Major General Turki al-Malki, the spokesman for the Saudi-backed Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen.

Saudi air defences intercepted some of the missiles attempting to target the cities, Al-Malki told the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).

There was no immediate claim of responsibility from the Houthis or other groups.

The coalition statement came as the Reuters news agency reported that an ‌‌air defence system operated by Greek ⁠⁠military ⁠⁠personnel in Saudi Arabia intercepted a ballistic missile and a drone on Thursday in ⁠⁠the wider Yanbu region, home to major oil refining facilities.

“Both were shot down,” a Greek security source told Reuters, adding that the Greek Patriot system launched two missiles but did not give details ⁠⁠on the origin of the ⁠⁠drone and the ballistic missile. A second source confirmed the information to the news agency.

Yanbu port is key to Saudi crude when shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted.

Earlier on Thursday, Saudi Arabia’s General Directorate of Civil Defence issued alerts warning of potential danger in the holy city of Mecca, the northwestern area of Tabuk, the Red Sea areas of Jeddah and Yanbu and the southern area of Taif. They later said the threat had passed and the cities were out of danger.

Last week, Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a drone launched by the Houthis towards Mecca, an accusation the group strongly denied, with Houthi leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi calling the Saudi claims “a heinous lie”.

It was the first time in nearly 10 years that a security alert had been activated in Mecca, home to the Kaaba, Islam’s holiest site.

The Houthis have largely attacked southern areas of Saudi Arabia.

They stepped up attacks on the kingdom after declaring a naval blockade in July, a second theatre for the US-Iran war. The Houthis also seized the whole of Yemen’s western coast in a lightning offensive nearly two weeks ago that brought them to the shores of the Red Sea’s strategic Bab al-Mandeb waterway.

Forces with Yemen’s Saudi-backed internationally recognised government said on Thursday they repelled Houthi attacks along several fronts in Yemen’s southwestern Taiz governorate.

Colonel Majid al-Nuzaili, spokesman for the Yemeni government forces, said that the Houthis launched coordinated attacks on Wednesday night in a bid to reach positions on a key road connecting the Aden, Lahj and Taiz governorates.

“They’ve begun an offensive around southern Tigray,” Abdisalam Balema, a member of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) central committee, told Al Jazeera by phone from Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, on Wednesday morning.

“They’re carrying out strikes in many places. We are not sure of the extent of it or whether they will continue, but we will assess it.”

Balema did not know it then, but he was describing the start of a major military escalation.

Fighting intensified across parts of Tigray and later spread to the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, pitting federal forces against several armed groups. A day later, Balema told Al Jazeera that the situation had become a “full war”.

The Tigray Army said the federal government had launched a “full-scale offensive” involving infantry, mechanised units and drones, and said its forces had begun counteroffensive operations.

Getachew Reda, a former senior TPLF figure who now advises Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, gave the opposite account of how the fighting began, accusing the TPLF of launching the attack.

The escalation disrupted air travel, as Tigrayan forces seized airports in the region and Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights across Tigray. Local reports also said they had captured Abala, a district capital in neighbouring Afar.

Amid the competing accounts of how the escalation began, the immediate question may now be whether Ethiopia has crossed into a wider conflict.

The intensification came days after seven armed movements from across Ethiopia, including the TPLF, announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, which committed itself to removing Abiy’s government.

The coalition has brought together the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army, alongside other movements from Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz areas.

The alliance marked a striking realignment that had been almost a year in the making, bringing together movements with very different histories and grievances against the central government, including forces with bitter histories of conflict among themselves.

In a statement issued as the fighting widened on Wednesday, the alliance said the federal government was attacking its member forces on several fronts and presented their response as part of the broader struggle that had brought the coalition together.

The regional East African bloc IGAD called for hostilities to cease and direct dialogue to resume, while the United Nations has expressed concern over the formation of the new armed coalition and reports of drone attacks.

About three-quarters of a million people were already internally displaced in Tigray because of the earlier war, according to UN migration data.

Formation of the alliance

The alliance grew out of the political realignment that followed the Pretoria agreement, which ended the two-year Tigray war in November 2022. The deal brought peace between Addis Ababa and the TPLF, but fractured the coalition Abiy had assembled to fight the war.

Neither Eritrea nor Amhara forces, whose troops had fought alongside the federal army, were parties to the final agreement, and both later fell out with the federal government.

In Amhara, tensions over plans to dismantle regional forces helped trigger open conflict between the Ethiopian government and Fano fighters, organised under the Amhara Fano National Movement, in 2023. Relations with Eritrea also deteriorated, first over the Pretoria settlement and later over Abiy’s push for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean ports.

The Pretoria agreement also deepened divisions within the TPLF, between figures such as Reda, who continued to defend the settlement, and a faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael that increasingly rejected the political order it had created.

Pretoria “changed the equation”, Faisal Roble, a regional analyst and member of the East African Parliament, told Al Jazeera. “Abiy alienated all of them at different levels.”

The faction led by Debretsion later seized power in Tigray and repaired relations with former enemies, including Fano fighters in Amhara and Eritrea, upending the alliances that had defined the previous war.

The government’s spokeswoman, Billene Seyoum, told the Reuters news agency after the new coalition was announced that its members had already been collaborating with financial backing from Asmara and that the formal declaration confirmed statements by government officials.

Eritrea has repeatedly denied supporting Ethiopian armed groups.

Reda had dismissed the alliance’s chances of ousting the government shortly after it was announced. “I don’t lose sleep over that,” he told state media this week.

“Now it [the TPLF] goes back to the drawing board, and declares Pretoria dead and starts an alliance with the very people who fell out with the federal government because Pretoria was signed,” he added.

Balema, the senior TPLF official, said the party’s decision to join those former enemies reflected its determination not to find itself isolated if the conflict widened again.

“We’ve been forced to ally with other movements who also face an existential threat from the government,” he told Al Jazeera. “We don’t want a repeat of 2020 when we were encircled and alone.”

Balema acknowledged unresolved disputes within the alliance, including competing claims over western Tigray involving Amhara forces, but said the groups had agreed to address them through dialogue.

“We have a political charter, and our aim is to remove the personalist regime of Abiy Ahmed, establish a transitional government, hold a constitutional dialogue and move to elections,” he added, saying “the alliance is in consensus on this.”

“For now it seems like it will work, but when the deeper issues need to be resolved it will test their different constituencies, who have different expectations,” Mohamed Kheir Omer, a researcher focused on the Horn of Africa, told Al Jazeera.

“But right now it isn’t the urgent issue.”

Beyond northern Ethiopia

The alliance also draws in the Oromo Liberation Army and a faction of the Ogaden National Liberation Front, movements rooted in older demands for autonomy and self-determination among Ethiopia’s Oromo and Somali populations.

Both had fought the TPLF-dominated government that preceded Abiy and are now allied with the TPLF. Taking office in 2018, promising a break with the old order, Abiy sought to bring both into civilian politics.

The Oromo Liberation Front returned from exile, but disagreements over disarmament left part of its armed wing outside the settlement.

Those fighters continued their armed conflict as the Oromo Liberation Army, and subsequent peace talks with the government failed.

Though the OLA ultimately signed the new alliance agreement, its leader, Jaal Marroo, had described it in the preceding days as a “procedural consensus” rather than a substantive settlement on Ethiopia’s political future.

The ONLF stayed out of armed conflict after its own 2018 peace deal, but later fractured. An overseas faction accuses the government of failing to implement the agreement and eroding Somali autonomy, while the leadership inside Ethiopia’s Somali region denies joining the new alliance.

Abdulkadir Hassan Hirmoge, a spokesperson for the faction that joined, told Al Jazeera that it now regards the 2018 agreement as void.

He said joining the alliance did not mean restarting an armed struggle, but backing its programme of removing Abiy and establishing a transitional government.

Regional dimension

Ethiopia’s domestic conflicts are becoming harder to separate from wider rivalries in the Horn, particularly Sudan’s civil war and Addis Ababa’s deteriorating relationship with Eritrea.

Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has visited Asmara twice since July for talks with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, while Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, the commander of Sudan’s rival Rapid Support Forces, reportedly visited Addis Ababa in late August.

Reuters reported in February that thousands of RSF fighters were being trained at a camp in western Ethiopia, while Sudan has accused Ethiopia, and its ally the United Arab Emirates, which also reportedly backs the RSF, of allowing drones to be launched from its territory into Sudan.

The emerging Ethiopian opposition alignment has touched the same regional network.

Several figures associated with groups now in the alliance attended a meeting in Port Sudan in May, publicly presented as a “people-to-people” initiative.

In July, Abiy told lawmakers: “Let alone Eritrea, the TPLF and Sudan, even if others were added, we do not have an iota of fear regarding Ethiopia’s sovereignty.”

Balema, the senior TPLF official, denied that the alliance was receiving military or logistical support from either Eritrea or Sudan, saying its relationships abroad amounted to political contacts rather than foreign backing.

“We didn’t create the current problem with Eritrea; Abiy did with his demands on its ports, and the same with Somalia,” he said.

“In Sudan, he is now supporting the Rapid Support Forces. He has created his own enemies across the region and we are just picking up the pieces.”

Sudan has recently sought to ease tensions with Addis Ababa. Malik Agar, the second in command of its military-aligned government, said last week that “we do not want to get involved in a war with Ethiopia.”

Jawar Mohammed, an Oromo opposition politician, warned that Ethiopia could nevertheless become an “incongruent battlefield” in which wider regional contests increasingly play out.

“These things are impossible to control,” he said.

Strikes carried out in southeastern province of Khost cause no casualties, governor’s office says.

Pakistan says it has carried out air strikes on 10 locations in Afghanistan used to store and launch drones, some of which were used in cross-border attacks.

The air strikes on Thursday were carried out as tensions grow between the former allies over attacks by armed groups in Pakistan, which triggered their worst fighting in years in February.

Islamabad accuses Kabul of harbouring fighters who stage cross-border attacks, but Afghanistan’s Taliban government denies harbouring anti-Pakistani armed groups and says the attacks are Pakistan’s internal problem.

The air strikes were “deliberate, precise, calibrated, and proportionate, and strictly limited to identified military objectives directly linked to the attempted attacks against Pakistan”, Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar wrote on X.

He condemned a “deliberate and unlawful incursion into Pakistan by drones” on Wednesday.

“This constitutes a blatant violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and is a grave and unacceptable act of aggression,” he said.

The Pakistani air strikes were conducted in several areas of Khost province in southeastern Afghanistan, Mustaghfir Gurbaz, spokesperson for the Khost governor, said.

There were no casualties, ⁠he said.

An attack on a police facility in northwestern Pakistan last week that killed at least 21 people has reignited ⁠fighting between the countries after nearly three months of ⁠relative calm. A Pakistan Taliban faction claimed responsibility for the blast and subsequent gun battle.

On Monday, air strikes targeting three locations in northeastern Afghanistan killed three civilians in the Nurgal district of Kunar province, Afghan officials said. Islamabad said it killed 28 “terrorists”.

The escalation threatens mediation efforts by China, Turkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to broker a lasting peace between the two neighbours.

Relations between the former allies have been strained since the fighting in February, the worst for years.

Excluding Ra’am and the Joint List leaves Palestinian citizens in Israel without major Knesset representation options.

Israel’s Central Elections Committee has voted to bar both main Arab electoral lists from next month’s election, putting the political representation of Palestinian citizens of Israel before the Supreme Court weeks before voters go to the polls.

The committee voted on Wednesday to disqualify the United Arab List, or Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, and the Joint List, an alliance of the Arab-led Hadash, Ta’al and Balad parties. It also voted separately to bar Hadash legislator Ofer Cassif and Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh. The election is scheduled for October 27.

The bans are not final. Decisions against individual candidates require Supreme Court approval, while lists can appeal their exclusion. Adalah, the legal centre representing the parties and candidates, says it will challenge the votes when the court hears the cases next week.

Ra’am called its exclusion “political and unacceptable”, saying the decision was intended to prevent it from influencing the balance of power and changing the government.

The Joint List said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir were trying to discourage Arab citizens from voting “because they fear our ability to bring down the government of genocide and racism”. Its leader, Yousef Jabareen, questioned how the committee could bar parties representing more than 1.25 million voters.

Abu Shehadeh told Al Jazeera that his exclusion was an attempt to silence criticism of government policy and said the decisions would be challenged in court and through public protest. Rejecting the allegation that he supports violence, he told The Times of Israel: “I have never called for violence or terrorism. I oppose armed struggle.”

The petitions invoke Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset, which allows a list or candidate to be excluded for denying Israel’s existence as a “Jewish and democratic state”, inciting racism or supporting armed struggle against Israel by an enemy state or an organisation designated as terrorist.

Netanyahu’s Likud party sought to disqualify the Joint List and Cassif, and was among the groups that filed against Ra’am. Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party also sought to bar Abu Shehadeh. Adalah disputes the allegations. It says the case against Ra’am presents no evidence that the party supports armed struggle, while the Joint List petition relies heavily on old material, including bills proposed in previous Knessets.

Abu Shehadeh’s case has drawn a different response. Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara found no legal basis to exclude the other targeted parties and candidates but said an article he published on October 8, 2023, which she said may constitute support for armed struggle, warranted serious examination. The committee voted 31-4 to bar him. Adalah says the article contains no such call.

The push to bar Abu Shehadeh drew support from parties outside Netanyahu’s coalition. According to The Times of Israel, opposition parties voted to disqualify him, as did Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, who chairs the elections committee. The vote broke with decades of precedent in which committee chairs abstained from disqualification votes. Abu Shehadeh’s exclusion still requires approval from the full Supreme Court.

Why the Arab vote matters

Ra’am joined the coalition government formed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021, helping end Netanyahu’s 12 consecutive years in office in 2021, although Abbas had previously discussed cooperation with Netanyahu as well. Now Likud itself has filed petitions against Arab representation, while Ben-Gvir’s party has pursued separate exclusions.

A Channel 12 poll published on Tuesday projected seven seats for the Joint List and five for Ra’am, against 50 for Netanyahu’s current coalition bloc. The 12 projected Arab seats would not automatically back Netanyahu’s opponents, as mainstream opposition parties remain divided over whether to govern with Arab support. But removing both lists would change the possible routes to the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.

The Supreme Court has overturned previous committee bans on Arab lists and candidates, including Balad’s exclusion in 2022. It must now decide whether the evidence meets the legal threshold for barring the two principal lists seeking to represent Palestinian citizens of Israel. The ruling will determine who can appear on the October ballot.

The move comes after the EU lifts sanctions on oligarchs following what diplomats described as pressure from Baku.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has pardoned Martin Ryan, a French national who was serving a 10-year prison sentence on spying charges.

The move on Wednesday came a day after the European Union lifted sanctions on Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov following what diplomats described as pressure exerted by Baku.

Ryan, who was arrested in 2023 and sentenced in March, was among 20 people pardoned by Aliyev’s office, alongside Azerbaijani, Turkish, Russian-Israeli and Pakistani nationals, Reuters news agency reported.

Aliyev’s website said the president took into account their “personalities, state of health, family circumstances” and other reasons in deciding to grant pardons.

France welcomed “with relief the decision to grant clemency” to Ryan, calling it “a humanitarian gesture”, according to a French Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement. “This decision is the result of patient and exacting dialogue with the Azerbaijani authorities.”

It remained unclear whether Ryan had been released.

Spying charges

Prosecutors alleged Ryan gathered information on Azerbaijan’s military ties with Turkiye, Iran and Pakistan, as well as on companies linked to Russia and China.

Ryan, who also holds British citizenship, denied the charges. France said the allegations against him were false and had called for his immediate release, arguing he had been caught in the crossfire of diplomatic tensions.

The delisting of Usmanov ⁠and fellow Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman was the first time the EU removed sanctions on the wealthiest members of Russia’s billionaire elite who had not publicly condemned the war on Ukraine.

Usmanov, who once held a minority stake ⁠in Arsenal football club, graduated from the same prestigious diplomatic school in Moscow as the presidents of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and knows them personally.

Diplomatic response

European diplomats told Reuters and AFP news agencies that France had privately indicated Baku was using Usmanov’s sanctions status to pressure Paris over its detained citizens.

A second Frenchman, Anass Derraz, an employee of the French water company Saur who was sentenced to 12 years on corruption charges, was not included in the pardons.

An Azerbaijani diplomat rejected suggestions of a pressure campaign as “categorically unfounded”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the move reflected Russian efforts “to break the West’s unity”, while his Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, said Moscow was “celebrating, because it got what it wanted: a sense of impunity, the humiliation of the EU, and division among Europeans”.

Latvia abstained from the vote and said it would impose its own sanctions on the two men, with Foreign Minister Baiba Braze calling the EU decision “dangerous”.

Slovakia initially called for Usmanov’s removal, with France later backing the move.

Relations between Baku and Paris have long been strained by France’s support for Armenia, even as ties between Moscow and Baku have also deteriorated since the accidental downing of an Azerbaijani passenger jet by Russian forces in December 2024.