conflict

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has offered Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan aimed at temporarily halting the war in the Middle East, as the Pentagon simultaneously orders thousands of Marines, paratroopers and a warship to the region.

The plan presented to Iranian leadership Tuesday broadly included a 30-day ceasefire and sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for a laundry list of U.S. demands, according to the Associated Press and other outlets.

But Iran dismissed the proposal Wednesday, criticizing the White House’s terms as “excessive” and out of step with reality, according to Iranian state-run media.

Those terms included limitations on Tehran’s missile stockpiles, and the permanent end to its nuclear program, its support for regional militias including Hezbollah, and of its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, various outlets reported, citing Pakistani officials mediating the negotiations.

Several of those provisions have long been considered nonstarters for Iran, which sees its missile stockade and regional alliances as central to national security.

Iranian officials responded with defiance and skepticism.

“Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met,” an Iranian official told state media. “Not when Trump envisions its conclusion.”

The official outlined the Islamic Republic’s terms for ending the conflict, which included a halt to “aggression and assassinations,” an end to fighting on all fronts, enforceable guarantees that hostilities will not resume, compensation for war damages and a formal recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated that Iran is not interested in a ceasefire but rather a comprehensive “end of war” on all fronts, including the lifting of sanctions and guarantees to allow Iran to pursue peaceful nuclear enrichment for energy and medical applications.

Iranian officials told state media that they believed the Trump administration’s diplomatic efforts were deceptive.

“You have reached a stage where you are negotiating with yourselves,” Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari said in a televised address Wednesday. “Do not call your defeat an agreement.

Since the start of the conflict, Iranian leaders have voiced suspicion of any diplomatic talks with the Trump administration, pointing to prewar diplomatic efforts as evidence they were “tricked.” The Islamic Republic says it made clear in those talks that it had no interest in developing nuclear weapons, but Trump launched his military campaign nonetheless.

There have been conflicting media reports over Tehran’s exact position. Statements from Iranian officials and state-linked outlets have left open the possibility that elements of the proposal are still under review, while some reports frame the response as an outright refusal.

The Iranian response also conflicts with President Trump’s insistence that negotiations were progressing.

“We have had very, very strong talks,” he said Sunday in Florida. “We have points, major points of agreement. I would say almost all points of agreement will at some point very, very soon meet.”

Compounding the issue, Israel — which continues to carry out routine bombing campaigns over Iran — has stayed out of the talks.

Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke about the peace deal in a phone call Tuesday. In a televised address, Netanyahu said that Trump “believes there is an opportunity” to realize U.S.-Israeli war objectives in an agreement “that will safeguard our vital interests.”

“At the same time, we continue to strike both in Iran and in Lebanon,” Netanyahu said. “We will safeguard our vital interests in any scenario.”

The negotiations are being facilitated by Pakistan, with support from Egypt and Turkey — countries that have pushed to contain a conflict that has killed more than 2,400 people, further destabilized the embattled region and disrupted global oil markets.

As Washington pursued a diplomatic end to the conflict, the Pentagon deployed an additional 2,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Mideast. An additional 5,000 Marines and thousands of sailors are already en route to the region, where 50,000 more Marines are currently stationed.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters on Wednesday that the deployment “sends a signal to Iran that they need to get their act together,” but denied any coming escalations by the American side. Johnson instead said that he believes “Operation Epic Fury is almost done.”

Now in its fourth week, the operation began with a series of intensive airstrikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and dozens of other high-ranking officials. Since then, the U.S. and Israel have carried out over 9,000 strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure and nuclear program.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters in the Oval Office Tuesday that while the president’s diplomatic envoys seek a peace deal, his department of war will continue to “negotiate with bombs.”

“The president has made it clear that you will not have a nuclear weapon. The War Department agrees,” Hegseth told reporters Tuesday in the Oval Office. “Our job is to ensure that, and so we’re keeping our hand on that throttle.”

Iranian retaliatory strikes have hit Gulf infrastructure and halted energy production and shipping in the region, spurring global fears of an enduring supply crunch. Meanwhile, Israel has expanded operations in Iran and sought to expand its borders into Lebanon.

Oil prices, which had surged above $120 per barrel earlier in the conflict, fell sharply this week on hopes that a ceasefire could ease supply woes.

In a statement Wednesday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres demanded an end to the fighting, which he said “has broken past limits even leaders thought imaginable.”

He specifically called on the U.S. and Israel to end the war, as “human suffering deepens, civilian casualties mount, and the global economic impact is increasingly devastating.”

Times staff writers Ana Ceballos, in Washington, D.C., and Nabih Bulos, in Beirut, contributed to this report.

As the United States-Israeli war on Iran rages on, schools across Israel have been closed, cultural venues shuttered and large gatherings cancelled under police orders.

Dissent against the war, if there is much at all, has little chance of being aired.

A few demonstrations against the war, such as those staged by the Israeli-Arab activist group Zazim, still flicker through central cities, but they do so under heavy supervision, with officers warning crowds to disperse when sirens sound or when assemblies grow beyond what commanders deem safe.

The effect is a public sphere constrained less by decree than by the constant threat hanging overhead.

“Kids aren’t going to school, while employers are insisting their parents go to work,” Zazim’s co-founder and executive director, Raluca Ganea, says. Everyone is too overwhelmed by the daily grind to voice any dissatisfaction, she adds.

“We’re enduring multiple missile attacks daily, which means people aren’t sleeping. It’s like a manual for tyrants. It’s how you suppress protest or opposition and it’s working so far,” she added.

“We’ve attempted a couple of protests, but people are just too tired to engage,” Ganea says of Zazim’s efforts to resist the war. “It’s not so much that people are telling you that you can’t so much as protesting becomes impossible when a missile attack could happen at any time.”

Support for the war on Iran has remained strong in Israel, a fact borne out by polls. But as exhaustion grows and resentment builds over having their fates decided by often distant leaders such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump, who have shown little investment in their welfare, the societal fractures that came to define the war on Gaza are almost inevitable, she warns.

“It’s depressing,” she says. “The only response people have is to feel helpless when their fate is in the hands of people like Trump and Netanyahu, who really don’t care about them.”

Those who have put their heads above the parapet to object openly to the war are shunned anyway, as 19-year-old Itamar Greenberg knows only too well. People spit at him in the street.

“It comes in waves,” he says of the criticism he faces for his opposition to the war on Iran on the streets of his hometown, near Tel Aviv. “Sometimes they follow me, shouting ‘traitor’ or ‘terrorist’.”

Itamar is clear enough that he isn’t a terrorist, though he seems ready to accept the label of traitor if it means halting the war on Iran.

“At my university, everywhere, they say my opposition to the war on Iran is somehow crossing a red line. For instance, because of the [danger to the Israeli] hostages, some people could understand opposition to the genocide on Gaza, but opposing the war on Iran, the great evil, is somehow too much,” he says.

Rising censorship

Across Israel, journalists and activists like Itamar describe a pervasive atmosphere of self-policing and censorship that, they say, has left people less informed about the consequences of the war than the citizens in Iran, whom many in their media encourage them to pity.

In a country largely unified against a threat that, for generations, politicians have told them is existential, criticism, dissent or opposition is, for the majority, beyond the pale.

This way of thinking is baked into Israeli society. The systems employed by the country’s military censor today to curtail media reporting predate the establishment of Israel in 1948.

Furthermore, new wartime restrictions on what can and cannot be broadcast of the Iranian missile barrages targeting Israel, where they land and what damage they have done – introduced on March 5 – mean these largely go entirely unreported, Israeli journalists say.

Reporting on the new media restrictions in mid-March, the Israeli magazine +972 documented one instance when journalists were permitted to report on debris that had hit an educational facility, but did not mention the actual strike by an Iranian missile, which had successfully hit its intended target nearby. Nor were they allowed to examine the site.

In another case reported by +972, journalists photographing damage to a residential block said they were approached by a man they believed to be linked to a security agency. He asked police to stop reporters from recording the real target of the attack, which was located behind them. The police officer replied that the journalists would not have noticed that site at all had it not been pointed out, since the visible destruction was concentrated on the civilian building.

The censorship, which had been growing more relaxed in recent years, had been tightened once more during the current war, Meron Rapoport, an editor at +972’s sister paper, Hebrew language Local Call, told Al Jazeera, “We don’t really know what is being or with what explosives,” he said, “The IDF [Israeli army] announcements always refer to strikes being on ‘uninhabited areas,’ which is peculiar, because there aren’t that many uninhabited areas in Tel Aviv. It’s a very compact city.”

Indeed, Iran has launched multiple missiles at Tel Aviv, some of which have resulted in damage and injuries – either by the missiles themselves or by debris falling following interception. Most recently, on Tuesday, missiles triggered air raid sirens in the city, where gaping holes were ripped through a multistorey apartment building.

Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency medical service said: “Six people were lightly injured at four different sites.”

“It’s curious,” Rapoport says. “Israeli commentators are always saying how the Iranian public has no real idea how badly they’re being hit. The irony is that they probably have a better idea of how hard Israel is being hit than most Israelis.”

Iran has launched a round of missiles targeting Israel, causing damage and injuries in Tel Aviv, as uncertainty swirled over possible talks to end the three-week US-Israel war on Iran.

The missiles triggered air raid sirens in Israel on Tuesday, including in Tel Aviv, where gaping holes were torn through a multistorey apartment building. It was not immediately clear whether the damage was caused by a direct hit or debris from an interception.

Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency medical service said: “Six people were lightly injured at four different sites.”

Police in Tel Aviv said they were dealing with “several impact sites of munitions”.

Israel’s National Fire and Rescue Authority said the search was on for people trapped in one building in Tel Aviv, adding that civilians were found in a shelter in another damaged building.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military said on Tuesday that its jets carried out a wave of strikes in central Tehran on Monday, targeting key command centres, including facilities associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ intelligence arm and the Iranian Intelligence Ministry. It said more than 50 additional targets were hit overnight, including ballistic missile storage and launch sites.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps calls Trump a ‘deceitful American president’, saying his ‘contradictory behaviour will not make us lose sight of the battlefront’.

Israeli settlers have been filmed vandalising a boys’ school in Huwara, spray-painting racist graffiti and raising an Israeli flag on the roof. The attack comes as settler violence intensifies across the occupied West Bank with homes and cars set on fire, leaving at least nine Palestinians injured.

In the final hours of her life on January 29, 2024, Hind Rajab’s feeble voice could be heard desperately pleading with her mother and emergency workers for help, as she was trapped in a car surrounded by the bodies of six of her relatives.

After finally getting clearance from the Israeli military in Gaza City, a Red Crescent ambulance raced to save the five-year-old girl. But two paramedics were killed when their marked vehicle – whose sirens were blaring – came under Israeli tank fire. The remains of the nine victims were recovered 12 days later.

Two years after the tragedy, a report claims this was a “double tap” attack by the Israeli army. A double-tap strike essentially means carrying out two strikes on the same target, often wounding or killing medics and civilians who are coming to the aid of people harmed in the first attack.

Analysis by the legal campaign group Avaaz has found evidence that the killings contravened international combat law under the Geneva Conventions and the Rome Statute.

“By reconstructing the coordination and timing around the approved ambulance mission, it shows that there is substantial evidence of a deliberate ‘double-tap’ tactic – an initial military strike followed with a deliberately timed second strike targeting emergency responders and medical personnel who arrive to help,” Avaaz says in its report exclusively shared with Al Jazeera. “The brief brings together the timeline of events up to and beyond Hind’s death, showing what Israeli forces must have been aware of at each stage, and the frequent opportunities they had to pull back from murder.

“It documents over 40 human rights violations and ties together how those violations are evidence of a double-tap attack on the hospital workers. Each violation builds to an alarming possibility: Israel is not only killing Palestinians – it is systematically killing those who try to save them. The message is clear: If the medical community tries to help, it will be extinguished.”

More than 1,500 healthcare workers have been killed during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, including several since a so-called “ceasefire” came into effect in October.

Avaaz, building on previous investigations by Al Jazeera in partnership with the Hind Rajab Foundation and other media organisations, claims there is clear evidence that this double strike constituted a war crime. The campaign group is now urging the International Criminal Court (ICC) to bring those responsible to justice.

At the time of publishing, the Israeli military had not responded to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

‘I am absolutely convinced that this is another case of double tap’

Al Jazeera, in partnership with the Hind Rajab Foundation, last year revealed evidence of deliberate killings.

The Israeli government initially claimed that none of its forces was present at the time, later asserting that the 335 bullet holes found in the family’s car were the result of an exchange of fire between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian fighters.

However, a subsequent investigation of satellite imagery and audio from that day by the multidisciplinary research group Forensic Architecture, based at Goldsmiths, the University of London, identified only the presence of several Israeli Merkava tanks in the vicinity of the family’s car and no evidence of any exchange of fire.

The Avaaz report highlights that the ambulance obtained permission from COGAT, an arm of the Israeli military, to go to Hind’s aid, so Israeli forces knew exactly when the first responders would arrive and the route they would take. About three hours passed between the initial shooting of the family vehicle and the attack on the ambulance, indicating the Israeli army had ample opportunity for “situational awareness, communication, and command decision-making”, the report adds.

Avaaz says the ambulance was attacked by a tank in a way that could not have been a warning shot if the military had any reason to believe it was not there to rescue Hind. Instead, the assault “points to lethal targeting”.

The Israeli army gave no warning before attacking the ambulance, previous investigations have found.

“I have taken the investigations done by a number of independent journalistic outfits. I was really struck by the evidence at the end of the whole horrendous incident,” said Sarah Andrew, legal director of Avaaz, who added that as a mother, Hind’s death made her think of her own daughter. “In particular, the kind of weaponry that was used on the ambulance, the timing and the fact that no warning was given – it immediately triggered a question in my mind, and I am absolutely convinced that this is another case of double tap.”

She told Al Jazeera: “It is something that has not had attention, and we would like to take this with [an independent legal] partner to the ICC.”

“What I have done is establish a legal framework for the previous investigation. I think it is very important that we also look at what happened to the ambulance workers as well as what happened to Hind and her family.”

The report says, “Even where an attacking force claims it suspects misuse of a medical vehicle, international humanitarian law requires warnings and an opportunity to comply before an attack can be lawful.”

Andrew said the Israeli military has yet to explain why a tank fired on an ambulance.

“We have not heard from the people responsible. I want them to appear before the ICC and hear what on earth was in their mind when they ordered 120mm tank rounds to be fired into an ambulance,” she said. “Justice is first of all bringing the light of attention into this crime and secondly seeing the persons responsible being accountable for their actions.”

Professor James Sweeney, from the University of Lancaster, who is an expert on human rights and conflict, said in double-tap attacks, the second strike is usually within five to 10 minutes.

It can also mean letting off a small explosion to induce rescuers to respond, then exploding another bomb once they are near.

“The [Avaaz] brief says that the attack on the ambulance should be considered a double tap, but usually the second attack would be within five to 20 minutes and would be considered a trick,” he told Al Jazeera. “It would seem that [in this case] the passage of time was greater, but that does not take anything away from the fact that the attack on the ambulance was so unlawful. You could see it as a form of double-tap, but it is not my normal understanding of it. But in any case, it does not take away from the fact that these were war crimes.”

The Hind Rajab Foundation said in a statement, “The double tap arguments are consistent with our analysis as well. We are continuously preparing for new filings against responsible soldiers in various jurisdictions.

“We have 24 names of responsible perpetrators. We are open to work together with Avaaz on a filing specifically regarding the attack on the ambulance.”

The violence comes as Israel continues its push to expand control over Palestinian territories in violation of international law.

At least nine Palestinians have been injured as Israeli settlers rampaged through towns and villages in the occupied West Bank for a second night in a row.

A 45-year-old man was shot in the foot late on Sunday during a confrontation with Israeli settlers in Deir al-Hatab, east of Nablus, the Wafa news agency reported.

The Palestinian Red Crescent reported that a 47-year-old Palestinian man was attacked by settlers in Jabal al-Arma in Beita, while others were beaten.

Earlier, Israeli settlers set fire to homes and cars in two areas south of Jenin and vandalised property across the occupied West Bank.

Simultaneous attacks took place on Saturday night in at least six communities, including the villages of Silat al Dahr and Fandaqumiya, both near Jenin; in Jalud and Salfit, both south of Nablus; and in the agricultural regions Masafer Yatta and the Jordan Valley.

The Palestinian news agency reported that homes and cars were set ablaze, Palestinians were pepper-sprayed and at least five people were wounded in the assaults, which took place during the Eid al-Fitr holiday marking the end of Ramadan.

Sunday night’s attacks came after Israeli settlers in the settlement of Elon Moreh held a funeral for 18-year-old Yehuda Sherman, who was killed in a collision with a Palestinian vehicle in an area north of the villages attacked.

Israeli police said they were investigating the settlers’ claims that the collision was deliberate.

Israel’s government is pressing ahead with new settlements in the occupied West Bank as attention shifts to the Iran war.

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 25 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli settlers and soldiers so far this year.

Israel’s security cabinet last month ratified a series of decisions pushed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Defence Minister Israel Katz, enabling Israel to claim large areas of the occupied West Bank as “state property” if Palestinians cannot prove ownership.

The Palestinian presidency condemned the decision in a statement, calling it a “grave escalation and a flagrant violation of international law” that amounts to “de facto annexation”.

Amnesty International said the expansion of illegal settlements and state-backed settler violence in the occupied Palestinian territories were “a direct indictment of the international community’s catastrophic failure to take decisive action.”

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in 2024 that Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful and should come to an end “as rapidly as possible”.

The judges pointed to a wide list of policies – including the building and expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, use of the area’s natural resources, the annexation and imposition of permanent control over lands and discriminatory policies against Palestinians – all of which it said violated international law.

Asian stock markets saw major declines on Monday as gold futures dropped 8% and crude oil prices continued to climb amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East.

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As the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke global supply, benchmark US crude rose above $100 a barrel on Monday morning in Europe.

Brent crude, the international standard, went up to more than $113 a barrel. The price of Brent crude has zigzagged lately from about $70 per barrel before the war began to as high as $119.50.

European stock indexes opened with losses, with the FTSE in London losing 1.5%, the CAC-40 in Paris being down by 1.6%, and the DAX in Frankfurt dropping by 2% at the opening.

Earlier on Monday, the International Energy Agency warned that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war and that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries were damaged.

Meanwhile, the de-escalation of the conflict is nowhere near in sight.

Trump warned over the weekend that the US would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, prompting Tehran to say it would respond to any such strike with attacks on US and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets in the region.

“Trump’s ultimatum and Iran’s retaliatory warnings point to a widening conflict that keeps energy disruption and market volatility elevated, with no clear off-ramp in sight,” said Ng Jing Wen, analyst at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.

In Europe, the benchmark natural gas futures were trading above €60 per MWh at the market open.

This follows last week’s gains as escalating threats to Middle Eastern energy facilities heightened fears of deeper supply disruptions.

In Asia, stock markets were also significantly impacted by the uncertainty around the Middle East crisis, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropping 3.5%. In Taiwan, the Taiex shed 2.5%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 6.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 3.8% and the Shanghai Composite declined 3.6%.

Higher oil prices, which also shook stock markets on Friday, dashed hopes for a possible upcoming cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, analysts said. Before the war, traders were betting that the Fed would cut rates at least twice this year. Central banks in Europe, Japan and the United Kingdom also recently held their interest rates steady.

The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Friday to close its fourth straight losing week, its longest such streak in a year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 443 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2%.

On Wall Street, roughly three out of every four stocks in the S&P 500 fell on Friday.

Stocks of smaller companies, which can feel the pinch of higher interest rates more than their bigger rivals, led the way lower. The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks fell a market-leading 2.3%.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury finished last week with a jump to 4.38% Friday from 4.25% late Thursday and from just 3.97% before the war started.

The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Fed might do, rose to 3.88% from 3.79%.

In currency trading, the US dollar rose to 159.53 Japanese yen from 159.22 yen. The euro cost $1.1526, down from $1.1571.

US President Trump, who cut off oil supplies to Cuba after abducting Venezuela’s President Maduro, has threatened to take over the island-nation.

The Cuban government has said it is prepared for any potential United States attacks as the island-nation begins to recover from yet another blackout under a punishing oil blockade imposed by Washington that has pushed its economy to the brink.

Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio responded on Sunday to US President Donald Trump’s threats this week to take over Cuba, insisting that it had “historically been ready to mobilise as a nation for military aggression”.

“We don’t believe it is something that is probable, but we would be naive if we do not prepare,” de Cossio told NBC’s Meet the Press.

His comments were aired a day after the latest collapse of the country’s ageing nationwide grid that had left millions of people in the dark. Saturday’s outage was the second in the past week and the third in March.

The state-run Electric Union and the Ministry of Energy and Mines said some 72,000 customers in the capital, Havana, including five hospitals, had electricity again early on Sunday. But the number represented only a fraction of Havana’s total population of approximately two million.

The Cuban Electric Union, which reports to the Ministry of Energy and Mines, said the total disconnection of the national system was caused by an unexpected shutdown of a generation unit at the Nuevitas thermoelectric plant in Camaguey province, without providing details on the specific cause of the failure.

Trump, who started blocking oil from reaching the island after abducting Cuba’s ally, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, early this year, has warned potential oil exporters that they could face high tariffs.

According to President Miguel Diaz-Canel, Cuba has not received oil from foreign suppliers for three months. The country produces barely 40 percent of the fuel it needs to power its economy.

On March 16, Trump escalated his rhetoric against Cuba, arguing the leadership was on the verge of collapse and saying he expected to have the “honour” of taking the country.

De Cossio denied that the nature, structure, or makeup of the Cuban government was up for negotiation in what Havana has called a “serious and responsible” dialogue with Washington launched earlier this month. He added that a change of the ruling system was “absolutely” off the table in discussions.

This week, General Francis Donovan, head of the US Southern Command overseeing armed forces in Latin America, told lawmakers at a US Senate hearing on Trump’s military action in the region that troops were not rehearsing for an invasion of Cuba or actively preparing to take over the Communist-run island.

But, he added, the US stood ready to address any threats to the US embassy, to defend its base at Guantanamo Bay, and aid US government efforts to address any mass migration from the island, if needed.

The Cuban government reportedly refused a request by the embassy in Havana to allow it to import diesel for its generators in response to the oil blockade, The Associated Press reported on Saturday, citing two US officials.

As the United States-Israeli war on Iran enters its fourth week, the conflict seems to have escalated beyond President Donald Trump’s control.

The Iranian government has been able to endure the killings of its top political and military leaders and has launched retaliatory attacks on Israel and Gulf countries despite weeks of air strikes.

Tehran has also been able to impose a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass, sending oil prices soaring. Analysts said the conflict risks unleashing a global recession. And that has put pressure on Trump, prompting his administration to allow the sale of sanctioned Russian oil to try to ease the energy crisis and pressure allies to police the strait, so far unsuccessfully.

Trump’s response in how to deal with the situation has been anything but coherent.

On Saturday, Trump upped the ante, issuing a threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. This came a day after he said the US was “winding down” its military operations in Iran.

Analysts said Trump launched the war without a clear goal and misjudged how Tehran would respond. The conflict has expanded across the Middle East.

So is Trump looking to exit the war – or escalate it?

Trump’s mixed messaging on the Iran war

Here’s a brief look at the changing statements from Washington:

Is the war winding up or widening?

While one statement from Trump signalled that the US is considering “winding down” the war on Iran, another one indicated that the conflict would widen in the coming days.

On Saturday, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that Washington was “very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran”.

Trump listed the goals of the war as: completely degrading Iran’s missile capability, destroying its defence industrial base, eliminating the Iranian navy and air force, never allowing Iran to get even close to having nuclear weapons, protecting Middle Eastern allies, and guarding and policing the Strait of Hormuz.

Both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have claimed repeatedly in the past few days that Iranian military capabilities have been “completely destroyed” even as Tehran continues to retaliate against Israel and strike countries in the region.

US military officials said they have carried out heavy bombardments of Iran’s coast, including with bunker buster bombs, but still have not been able to limit Tehran’s capacity to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.

On Saturday, Trump said the US “has blown Iran off of the map” and insisted that he has “met my own goals … and weeks ahead of schedule!” He also reiterated that Iran’s “leadership is gone, their navy and air force are dead, they have absolutely no defense, and they want to make a deal”.

Iranian leaders have consistently denied reaching out to the US with a ceasefire offer.

Just an hour later, Trump returned to his Truth Social platform with a warning for Iran.

“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!” Trump wrote.

Iran has since responded by saying it will hit energy sites across the Middle East if its power facilities are targeted. It has already fired hundreds of missiles and drones on Gulf countries, targeting US assets as well as energy facilities.

Between Trump’s claims to be “winding down” operations and upping the ante later, his administration announced it is sending three more warships to the Middle East with about 2,500 additional Marines.

The US military said about 50,000 military personnel are already deployed for the war against Iran.

When will the war on Iran end?

That has been among the foremost questions posed to US officials, including Trump, since the war on Iran was launched on February 28.

The next day, Trump told the Daily Mail that “it will be four weeks or so. It’s always been about a four-week process.” A day later, Trump said at the White House: “We projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that.”

On March 8, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the CBS TV network’s 60 Minutes programme: “This is only just the beginning.” The next day, the US president told the same channel that he thinks “the war is very complete, pretty much.” And the US military operation was “way ahead of schedule”.

Then, on March 9, Trump said one could say the war is “both complete and just beginning”. Later the same day, the president said: “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough” and promised to go further and harsher against Iran.

On March 11, Trump said: “We don’t want to leave early, do we? We’ve got to finish the job.”

Why did US and Israel launch strikes on Iran?

Responses to this question are perhaps the most telling about US posturing in the war against Iran.

On March 2, Hegseth said the attacks were aimed at ending “47 long years” of war by “the expansionist and Islamist regime in Tehran” and were launched because Iran refused to negotiate with the US.

Hours later, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, told reporters the US knew Israel was about to strike Iran, adding that the Trump administration believed the US needed to launch a pre-emptive strike before Iran’s retaliation potentially targeted US forces. “We went proactively in a defensive way to prevent them from inflicting higher damage,” he said.

This sparked a massive row in Washington with critics saying Israel had forced the US into war with Iran. Soon Trump rebutted his top diplomat, saying: “They [Iran] were going to attack. If we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first. … So if anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand.”

The next day, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, concluded that Trump just had a “good feeling” that Iran would strike so Washington attacked Tehran.

The launch of the war came as Washington and Tehran were scheduled to meet for another round of talks that were started late last year. Before the war, their Omani mediator said a deal was “within reach”.

The US and Israeli assertion that Tehran was on the verge of making a nuclear bomb has not been backed up by the United Nations nuclear watchdog. Last week, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard also told Congress that Iran was not in a position to make an atomic bomb.

Some analysts said the Trump administration was convinced to go to war by Netanyahu, who has been seeking US military intervention in Iran for decades. They said Trump was buoyed by a swift US military operation in Venezuela and did not think through Iran’s strengths before going into the war. In January, the US military abducted President Nicolas Maduro in a military operation in Caracas that took two and a half hours.

What does the conflicting messaging mean for US strategy?

Analysts said the moving goalposts in the Iran war show the policy limits of the current Trump administration as well as its strategy, to some extent, of keeping off-ramps available.

Zeidon Alkinani, a Middle East analyst at the Arab Perspectives Institute, told Al Jazeera that in the earlier days of the hostilities, there appeared to be clearer targets and limited objectives.

“There now seems to be a more chaotic reaction,” he said. He described the attacks as increasingly reciprocal, suggesting strikes on oil or energy facilities could prompt further escalation.

Last week, Iran attacked energy facilities in Qatar and caused “significant damage”, knocking out  17 percent of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity. Qatar produces 20 percent of global LNG supplies. Iran said the attack was in retaliation for Israeli attacks on a gas plant.

Paolo von Schirach, president of the Global Policy Institute, told Al Jazeera that Trump changes his mind “very quickly” and it is hard to predict what his next step could be in the war on Iran.

The analyst said it was unclear to him what “tools” Trump has to end the war.

“We look at his message saying the war is winding down. OK, good. Things are quiet. Maybe there is an off-ramp somehow. But now he says that if the Iranians don’t open the Strait of Hormuz, then we [the US] are going to unleash hell and what have you,” von Schirach noted.

“It is not quite clear to me what he wants and what the tools are to accomplish this.”

Von Schirach added that it would be difficult to predict whether the US could force Iran into submission, given its size and population. Using as a reference Iraq, where 150,000 American soldiers were deployed during the Second Gulf War, the analyst predicted that the US might need as many as half a million soldiers if Trump “wants to take over Iran”.

Iranian missiles struck two communities in southern Israel, leaving buildings shattered and dozens injured in dual attacks not far from Israel’s main nuclear research centre.

The Iranian strikes late on Saturday came after Tehran’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz was hit earlier in the day. Israel denied responsibility for the strike on Natanz, nearly 220km (135 miles) southeast of Tehran.

The Pentagon declined to comment on the strike on Natanz, which was also hit during the first week of the war and the 12-day war last June. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova said such strikes posed a “real risk of catastrophic disaster throughout the Middle East”.

Iran retaliated hours later.

Israel’s military said it was not able to intercept missiles that hit the southern cities of Dimona and Arad, the largest near the centre in Israel’s sparsely populated Negev desert. It was the first time Iranian missiles had penetrated Israel’s air defence systems in the area around the nuclear site.

The Israeli Ministry of Health said at least 180 people were wounded in the missile attacks on the southern city of Dimona and nearby Arad.

Dimona is about 20km (12 miles) west of the nuclear research centre, and Arad is around 35km (22 miles) to the north.

Israel is believed to be the only Middle East nation with nuclear weapons, though its leaders refuse to confirm or deny their existence. The UN nuclear watchdog said on X it had not received reports of damage to the Israeli centre or abnormal radiation levels.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if Tehran fails to open the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels within 48 hours. This major escalation comes as Trump faces pressure over skyrocketing domestic energy prices due to the now three-week-long war.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has criticised what he called the return of a colonial approach towards developing nations during a summit in Colombia.

But while Lula did not mention United States President Donald Trump in his remarks, he gestured at actions undertaken by the Trump administration, including the January 3 abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the fuel blockade in Cuba.

“It’s not possible for someone to think that they own other countries,” Lula said, in an apparent reference to US policy.

“What are they doing with Cuba now? What did they do with Venezuela? Is that democratic?”

Lula delivered his remarks at Saturday’s summit for the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which featured a high-level forum with delegates from Africa.

He told delegates that their countries had already experienced being plundered for gold, silver, diamonds and minerals.

“After taking everything we had, now they want to own the critical minerals and rare earths that we have,” Lula said, without specifying who “they” might be. “They want to colonise us again.”

The left-wing Brazilian president also criticised the ongoing war launched by the US and Israel against Iran.

He drew a parallel between that conflict, which began on February 28, and the US-led Iraq war, which began in 2003 on the pretext of eliminating “weapons of mass destruction”.

“Iran has been invaded under the pretext that Iran was building a nuclear bomb,” Lula said, before pivoting to the US campaign in Iraq, which resulted in the overthrow of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

“Where are Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons?” Lula asked. “Where are they? Who found them?”

A history of intervention

Washington’s history of intervention in Latin America goes back more than 200 years to when then-President James Monroe claimed the hemisphere as part of the US sphere of influence.

While large-scale, overt US involvement in the region mostly petered out after the Cold War, Trump has rekindled the legacy.

Since assuming office last year, Trump has launched boat strikes against alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean, ordered a naval blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, and gotten involved in electoral politics in Honduras and Argentina.

Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian goods last year, citing the trial against the country’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, as a motive. The US has also shown keen interest in Brazil’s rare earth deposits.

Then, on January 3, US forces abducted and imprisoned Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, flying him to New York to face drug and weapons charges.

While such actions have thrilled right-wing leaders across the continent, they have raised fears among left-wing politicians, who have voiced grave concerns over what they see as US bullying.

“We cannot allow anyone to interfere and violate the territorial integrity of each country,” Lula said Saturday.

Frustration with the UN

Lula, who has said he will run for a fourth, nonconsecutive term in Brazil’s upcoming October elections, also criticised the United Nations for its inability to stop multiple conflicts around the world.

“What we are witnessing is the total and absolute failure of the United Nations,” he said, pointing to the situations in Gaza, Ukraine and Iran.

He called, once again, for reform of the UN Security Council, which is mandated with ensuring international peace and security. But it has failed to stop major conflicts because of the veto power of its five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

There have been decades of efforts to reform the Security Council. But they have all been unsuccessful.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro, whom the US Drug Enforcement Administration has designated a “priority target”, echoed Lula’s condemnation of the UN.

The body “is acting in impotence, and that is not what it was created for. It was created after World War II precisely to prevent wars. And yet, what we have today is war,” Petro said at the summit.

But the world needs the UN to provide climate solutions and curb global warming, Petro said.

“The more serious humanity’s problems become, the fewer tools we have for collective action. And that path leads only to barbarism.”

Relatively few presidents and prime ministers from Latin America and the Caribbean attended the summit in Colombia, a sign of the continent’s deep divisions.

Those present included the presidents of Brazil, Uruguay, Burundi and Colombia, as well as the prime ministers of Guyana and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, along with deputy ministers, foreign ministers and ambassadors.

An Iranian missile has struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona, home to the country’s main nuclear facility, and nearby Arad, wounding dozens of people and causing significant damage, in one of the most dramatic escalations since the US-Israel war on Iran began.

Iranian state television quickly reframed Saturday’s strikes as a “response” to what it said was a strike on Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment complex earlier in the day, marking a stark new phase of tit-for-tat targeting in the conflict, now in its fourth week.

Nearly 100 people were wounded in the attacks, according to Israel’s emergency services, including a 10-year-old boy who paramedics said was in critical condition with multiple shrapnel wounds. Seven others are also in critical condition.

An Israeli military spokesman said Israel’s air defence systems activated during the attacks, but failed to intercept some of the missiles, even though they were not “special or unfamiliar”.

The country’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the attacks which wounded nearly 100 people, called it a “difficult” evening for Israel, and again vowed to continue attacking Iran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it had received no indication of damage to the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center at Dimona itself, and that no abnormal radiation levels had been detected in the area.

The nuclear watchdog said it was closely monitoring the situation, with Director General Rafael Grossi urging that “maximum military restraint should be observed, in particular in the vicinity of nuclear facilities”.

Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, said that three separate impact sites had been identified across Dimona, with one three-storey building having completely collapsed and several fires breaking out.

Witness footage verified by Al Jazeera, which is banned from operating inside Israel, showed a missile striking the city, followed by a large explosion.

Arad, another town near the nuclear facility, was also directly attacked, Israel’s firefighting service said in a statement, with extensive damage reported in the city centre.

“In both Dimona and Arad, interceptors were launched that failed to hit the threats, resulting in two direct hits by ballistic missiles with warheads weighing hundreds of kilograms”, firefighters said.

School in the surrounding Ramat Negev Regional Council was cancelled for the following day.

Earlier on Saturday, the Israeli military announced it had struck a research and development facility at Tehran’s Malek Ashtar University, which it said had been used to develop components for nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

The military said it “will not allow the Iranian regime to acquire nuclear weapons”.

Iran said that the US and Israel had targeted its Natanz enrichment complex that morning, though it reported no radioactive leakage.

An unnamed Israeli official, quoted by the Associated Press news agency, denied that Israel was responsible for the Natanz strike, but the Israeli army has not released a full statement on the matter.

Dimona has been at the heart of Israel’s nuclear programme since its research centre, built in secret with French assistance, opened there in 1958.

Eye-for-an-eye approach

Israel is believed to have developed nuclear weapons by the late 1960s. Its policy of deliberate ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying their existence, was part of a deal quietly struck with Washington, which judged that an open declaration would risk triggering a regional arms race.

Abas Aslani, a senior fellow at the Centre for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, told Al Jazeera that Iran has been pursuing an eye-for-an-eye approach designed to re-establish deterrence.

“Tehran wants to reduce the gap between words and actions,” he said, adding that Iran’s goal was to make its threats credible enough to underpin a new long-term security arrangement, not to simply force a ceasefire, but establish deterrence.

The attacks came as the broader war grinds through its fourth week.

More than 1,400 people have been killed in Iran since the US and Israeli strikes began on February 28, including more than 200 children.

Iran has retaliated across the region, launching what it described as its 70th wave of attacks on Saturday, targeting Israeli and US military positions, as millions of Iranians marked the Persian New Year, Newroz, and Eid al-Fitr under the shadow of war.

Day of intense hardship as mothers mourn children lost in war and children face day without their mothers.

While much of the Middle East celebrated Mother’s Day with flowers and gifts this weekend, in Gaza, the occasion served as a painful reminder of precious lives lost.

Sitting in her tent in Gaza City on Saturday, Em Rami Dawwas remembered the three sons she lost in Israeli attacks, two of whose bodies are still being withheld by the authorities.

“I miss my sons on Mother’s Day. They used to bring me gifts, flowers, sweets, and ask me about my needs. They were the light of my life,” she said, sitting among boxes filled with their clothes, which she cannot bring herself to throw away.

Palestinian children have borne the brunt of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza that began in October 2023, with UNICEF estimating in October last year that 64,000 children have been killed and wounded in Israeli attacks.

Reporting from among the tents in Gaza City, Al Jazeera’s Hind Khoudary said Dawwas kept the photos of her sons under her pillow, looking at them every day, “as if holding on will keep their memory alive”.

Many mothers spend the day in graveyards, sitting in the only place they can feel close to their dead children, said Khoudary.

‘I just wanted to make her happy’

Maram Ahmed faced a second Mother’s Day without her mother, who she lost in an Israeli air attack that killed her entire family. Her mother was her closest friend, said Khoudary.

“On Mother’s Day, even if I didn’t have money, I would buy my mum a gift from my allowance, even if it was for less than a dollar. I just wanted to make her happy,” said the 14-year-old, sitting in her sparse tent.

“I feel so sad when I see other children with their mothers, but I don’t show it,” she said.

A report published by rights group Amnesty International this month highlighted the “brutal price” women and girls have paid during the war, which started in October 2023. Two years later, Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas agreed to a fragile “ceasefire” that the former has repeatedly violated.

“Amid Israel’s deliberate imposition of conditions of life calculated to bring about the physical destruction of Palestinians in Gaza, Palestinian women face compounded and life-threatening consequences,” said the report.

It cited ongoing mass displacement, the collapse of reproductive, maternal and neonatal healthcare, the interruption of treatment for chronic illness, heightened exposure to disease and unsafe and undignified living conditions faced by women, as well as “profound physical and mental harm”.

Since the October 2025 “ceasefire”, Israeli attacks have killed more than 650 Palestinians, many of them women and children, according to recent figures from the Ministry of Health.

Overall, Israeli attacks have killed more than 72,000 people since the start of the war.

Gaza City – In front of a toy stall in Gaza City’s central al-Rimal market, Rania al-Saudi stands with her two young daughters, looking bewildered at the unusually high prices of toys.

Al-Saudi had promised her daughters she would buy them two dolls to celebrate Eid, but the exorbitant toy prices mean she simply can’t afford them.

Her elder daughter, six-year-old Razan, didn’t understand her mother’s worried expressions as Rania asked the vendor for the price of each toy. With every price, Rania gasped and said, “Oh my God, it’s so expensive… this used to be much cheaper.”

Faced with her daughter’s insistence, Rania pleaded with the vendor to lower the prices, but he apologised, saying he could not because getting hold of toys to sell was incredibly difficult, considering Israeli restrictions on importing items into Gaza.

Rania was not alone. Other parents and children repeatedly came to the vendor’s stall to ask about toys, but not one of them made a purchase. In Gaza’s current war-driven economic crisis, the prices are simply unaffordable.

Rania, 43, is originally from Shujayea in eastern Gaza, but has been displaced by the war to the west of the city. She told Al Jazeera that she came looking for toys in an attempt to put smiles on her daughters’ faces before the holiday, but her wish was not fulfilled.

“The prices are extremely high, and the vendors tell us that toys have not entered Gaza since the start of the war. But what did our children do to deserve this?”

Rania recalled the many toys her daughters had in their home before it was destroyed, and how she used to make sure they had toys for every occasion and every holiday.

“Eid holidays are for children’s joy, and children are happy with toys and entertainment. But our children are deprived of everything.”

While speaking to Al Jazeera, Rania tried to calm her daughter Lulwa, who had begun to cry after realising from her mother’s words that she would not get the doll she wanted.

“This doll used to cost no more than 15 shekels ($5) before the war; now it costs 60 shekels ($20),” she said to Al Jazeera, frustrated. “This is something I cannot afford. Everything is expensive and overpriced.”

Rania’s voice grew heavier as she explained that she was unable to even buy new Eid clothes for her daughters – a tradition across the Muslim world – due to the high prices.

“My daughters will not be happy this Eid. I wanted to compensate by getting them dolls, but even that is impossible.”

Toys have been in short supply during the war, which began in October 2023, with bombing and displacement meaning that most children either had their toys destroyed, lost, or left behind. Rania says that her children have been bored, and have had to develop their own ways of playing.

“All the children in the camp face the same situation, so they spend their time playing simple street games like hopscotch, hide-and-seek, or drawing in the sand,” she said.

“But my daughters always wished for a doll. I once tried to make one for them, but they didn’t like it.”

Rising prices and market impact

Toy sellers say they are not to blame for the high prices.

Anwar al-Huwaity has been in the business for 20 years. He told Al Jazeera that his stall is still operating despite Israel’s devastation of Gaza, but that business has become extremely difficult.

“Before the war, toys were widely available,” Anwar said. “Today, we go from one trader to another, searching. Sometimes we find toys with someone who had them stored, but they sell it at a very high price, up to three times its normal price.”

He added that most toys that now reach Gaza do not enter through official crossings, but in limited quantities via unofficial routes, making them very difficult to obtain.

The cost of bringing toys into Gaza has become extremely high. Anwar said some middlemen demand up to 12,000 shekels ($3,870) for a small shipment, and if it is confiscated or destroyed, the loss falls entirely on the trader.

“We buy merchandise at high prices, so we have to sell it at high prices as well,” Anwar said apologetically.

Anwar said that toys were now up to 300 percent more expensive compared to pre-war prices. The holiday season, the main income generator for toy sellers, used to bring in between $6,500 and $10,000, he explained. Now, he’d be lucky to sell $1,000 of stock – and most of that is bulk sales to other traders, rather than regular customers.

Anwar may be a businessman, but he shared that the hardest part of his job was seeing children ask for toys that their parents cannot afford.

“Many parents can’t buy toys due to the economic situation. People are barely able to secure food,” he said.

Anwar’s job has gone from providing children joy, to seeing them disappointed.

“I have started hating my workday because I know the prices are exorbitant, and when the children and families see the toys, they get upset, especially during the holidays.”

“People come to buy toys and beg me to lower the price,” he said. “They say, ‘This child is an orphan, that child is an orphan … his parents were killed in the war’. It feels like all children in Gaza have become orphans.”

Restrictions on recreational goods during the Gaza war

Since the outbreak of the war on Gaza in October 2023, trade has been heavily restricted due to the closure of commercial crossings by Israel, especially Karem Abu Salem (Kerem Shalom), the main entry point for goods into Gaza from Israel.

Israel imposed a total blockade on Gaza in 2023, and again for several months in 2025, leading to the declaration of a famine in northern Gaza.

Conditions have improved since a “ceasefire” was declared in October, but Israel is continuing regular strikes – and continuing to heavily restrict the entry of non-essential commercial goods, including toys and recreational materials.

Although no official law or declaration explicitly bans toys from entering Gaza, administrative and security restrictions, combined with the prioritisation of humanitarian goods, have effectively made entry of these items almost impossible.

The United Nations has noted that restrictions on commercial goods, including toys, have affected the availability of both essential and non-essential goods in Gaza.

Near Anwar’s toy stall is another run by Ahmed Ziara. The 24-year-old has been selling toys for several years, but the war has forced him to periodically stop trading.

“Before the war, I worked in major toy exhibitions,” Ahmed explained. “Now toys rarely enter, and we often have to smuggle them, sometimes hidden inside clothes or other goods.”

Ahmed confirmed that most of the toys he acquires are old stock already in Gaza, sold at high prices due to scarcity.

He mentioned that popular Eid holiday toys, which were once inexpensive, now cost triple or even quadruple their previous prices: a small toy car that sold for 40 shekels ($13) last year now costs 150 shekels ($48), a small ball that once cost 3 shekels ($1) is now 30 shekels ($10), building blocks are nearly unavailable, and dolls cost more than 70 shekels ($22.50).

“Buying from traders is hard, and selling is hard due to the economic situation,” Ahmed told Al Jazeera.

“Sometimes I have to sell below the expected price just to clear stock, but most of the time we must raise prices due to high costs and difficulty obtaining toys.”

“If conditions improve and toys are allowed in normally, prices will return to normal, and children and families will be able to enjoy the holiday as before,” he said.

“This work is not easy,” he added, contemplating. “Sometimes I sit alone and tell myself what I am doing is unfair because prices are extremely high. But despite everything, we love to bring joy to children, even for a short time.”

Joe Kent says he resigned as director of the US National Counterterrorism Center over opposition to the war in Iran, telling an audience at a Washington prayer event that he couldn’t “send young men and women off to die on foreign battlefields” in “good conscience.”

The fate of an Iranian woman caught in a US-Israeli bomb attack is unknown, after video emerged of the moments she filmed the bombardment on her phone.

Air raid sirens sounded across Kuwait City as Iran targeted US assets with missiles and drones. Footage shows alerts sounding as the call to Eid al-Fitr prayers was made at a mosque.

Russian oil is emerging as a key beneficiary of the US-Israeli war on Iran, as countries scramble to charter tankers following United States President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily ease sanctions, analysts say.

Following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 10, Trump said the US would waive Russian oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage caused by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which in peacetime carries 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas from producers in the Gulf.

This week, it was reported that a number of tankers carrying Russian oil bound for China had changed course and were heading for India instead.

According to figures from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia earned an additional 672 million euros ($777m) in oil sales in the first two weeks of the war on Iran, which began on February 28 when Israel and the US launched strikes on Tehran, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials.

Iran has since struck back, launching thousands of missiles and drones towards Israel as well as US military assets and infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf countries. The war stepped up a level this week, when Israel bombed Iran’s critical South Pars gasfield, and Iran hit back with strikes on Gulf energy assets, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility – the world’s largest.

This week, the average price of Urals oil – the Russian benchmark – was significantly higher than the pre-war price of less than $60, at around $90 per barrel.

Here’s more about who is buying Russian oil and which other nations might benefit from the oil crisis.

Why is Russian oil benefitting from the Iran war?

Iran’s effective closure of the Hormuz Strait, which is the only sea route from the Gulf to the open ocean, has “walled in” 20 million barrels of Gulf oil per day, George Voloshin, an independent energy analyst based in Paris, told Al Jazeera.

This has prompted the US to, at least temporarily, ease sanctions on shipped Russian oil to slow the ensuing energy crisis and potential global price collapse. The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has risen to above $100 a barrel since the closure of the strait, compared with about $65 before the war began.

Many analysts say a price of $200 is no longer “far-fetched”.

“Russia has emerged as a primary beneficiary of the Middle East conflict due to the massive supply vacuum created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” Voloshin said. “Global refiners are desperate for alternative medium-sour crudes, a need that Russia’s Urals grade specifically meets.”

He added that the US decision to grant a temporary reprieve for shipped Russian oil “has provided Moscow with a critical window to maximise export volumes and oil revenues, essentially allowing Russian crude to act as the world’s primary swing supply during the Iranian blockade”.

How has the price of Russian oil been affected so far?

The price of Russian Urals has surged significantly, experts say. As a result of US sanctions, the oil had been trading at below $60 a barrel for some time. However, while “Urals historically traded at a significant discount to Brent due to Western sanctions”, Voloshin said, “that gap has narrowed as demand outstrips supply”.

“Since the beginning of the year, the price of Russian oil is estimated to have risen by nearly 80 percent – most recently close to $90 per barrel – and consistently trading well above the G7 price cap of $60 as buyers prioritise energy security over regulatory compliance in a high-volatility environment,” he added.

Are ships changing course to deliver Russian oil to new buyers?

Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that at least seven tankers carrying Russian oil had changed course mid-voyage from China to India, citing data from Vortexa, the data analytics group.

Then, Indian media quoted Rakesh Kumar Sinha, special secretary in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, confirming that the Aqua Titan, a Russian oil-laden tanker originally destined for China, is now expected to arrive at New Mangalore port on March 21 having been chartered by Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MPCL).

India was the first country to receive a time-limited exemption from the US Treasury to import Russian oil that is already at sea, Voloshin said.

“There is clear evidence of a massive logistical redirection of Russian oil cargoes mid-voyage. Several tankers originally bound for Chinese ports have, indeed, switched trajectory to India. This shift is driven by India’s aggressive pursuit of discounted distressed cargoes to fill its strategic reserves and meet domestic demand, as well as the increased risk and insurance costs associated with long-haul shipments to East Asia via contested waters.”

Until recently, Trump had been strongly pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil, even slapping additional 25 percent trade tariffs on India last year in punishment for doing so. This was lifted earlier this year when Trump claimed he had received assurances from India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi that India would start buying US oil, or even Venezuelan oil seized by the US, instead.

Which countries are buying Russian oil now?

Indian media has reported that India’s purchases of Russian crude have surged in the past three weeks, since the war on Iran began and the Strait of Hormuz was closed.

“The primary buyers of Russian oil continue to be India and China, who together now account for the vast majority of Russia’s seaborne exports,” Voloshin said.

Turkiye is also a significant buyer, he added, now using Russian crude to stabilise its domestic market amid the gas shortages caused by the Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars field.

“Additionally, a shadow fleet of ageing tankers continues to move Russian oil to smaller, less-regulated refineries across Southeast Asia and the Middle East, often through complex ship-to-ship transfers designed to obscure the origin of the crude,” he added.

He said this shadow fleet is becoming the primary delivery mechanism for oil in several contested regions, meaning more buyers could appear. “Additionally, the degree of cooperation between the US and its European allies remains a wild card. If the EU continues to refuse participation in military operations near Iran, the diplomatic and economic pressure on the US to maintain the Russian oil reprieve will likely increase.”

Will Russian oil remain in demand if the US re-imposes sanctions?

If there is nowhere else to readily source oil, countries may continue to seek Russian crude even if the US reimposes sanctions, Voloshin said. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the closure of the Hormuz Strait has caused a shortage of 8 million barrels of oil per day.

If that persists, “major importers like India may feel they have no choice but to continue buying Russian oil to prevent domestic economic collapse”, Voloshin said.

If secondary sanctions on Russian oil are reintroduced, he added, buyers may demand much lower prices to compensate for the increased legal and financial risks of dealing with Moscow. “At the same time, in the presence of a continued severe market disruption, the US is very likely to roll over [extend] current exemptions,” Voloshin said.

Which other energy-producing nations could benefit?

Two other major non-OPEC energy producers that could benefit are Norway and Canada, experts say. However, this will largely depend on their capacity to increase production.

“Norway has already signalled its intent to maintain maximum gas and oil production to support European energy security, primarily selling to EU nations seeking to replace lost Iranian and Russian volumes,” Voloshin said. “Canada is exploring ways to increase its export capacity to the US Gulf Coast. However, like Russia, its ability to significantly ramp up production in the short term is constrained by pipeline throughput and infrastructure bottlenecks.”

Israeli and US air attacks pound Iran as assassination campaign of country’s leadership continues.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson has been killed in overnight strikes carried out jointly by the United States and Israel, the IRGC reported, the latest in a mounting toll of senior officials assassinated since the war began.

Ali Mohammad Naini, a 68-year-old brigadier general who took up the IRGC spokesman role in 2024, “was martyred in the criminal cowardly terrorist attack by the American-Zionist side at dawn”, the IRGC said in a statement on Friday.

His death came just hours after he appeared on national television to insist that Iran retained full capacity to manufacture missiles, even under wartime conditions.

“Our missile industry deserves a perfect score … and there is no concern in this regard, because even under wartime conditions we continue missile production,” Naini was quoted by the Fars news agency as saying.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium and manufacture ballistic missiles”.

The Israeli army said on Friday that it was carrying out strikes across eastern Tehran, as the country marks the Persian New Year, Nowruz, which this year coincides with Eid al-Fitr.

Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall, reporting from Tehran, described the mood in the capital as “hushed”, with none of the customary festivities visible on the streets.

Naini’s killing is the latest in a string of high-profile assassinations that have gutted Iran’s establishment in under three weeks.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening hours of the joint military campaign. He has since been replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Earlier this week, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and one of the most influential figures in Iran’s establishment, was killed in a strike along with his son and several aides.

The head of the Basij paramilitary forces, Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, and Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib were also confirmed dead within the same 48-hour period.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made little effort to conceal Washington’s glee, saying on Thursday that “the last job anyone in the world wants right now” is a senior leadership role in the IRGC or Basij.

However, other US officials appeared to suggest that Washington and Israel’s aims in Israel were not aligned.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the House Intelligence Committee this week that US and Israeli objectives “are different”, adding that while Israel had been “focused on disabling the Iranian leadership,” Trump’s goals were to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities “and their navy”.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has cast the killings as a means of opening a path for Iranians to reclaim their country, saying on Wednesday the campaign against the country’s leadership “will not happen all at once” but that persistence would give Iranians “a chance to take their fate into their own hands”.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US and Israel had still failed to grasp that Iran’s political structure does not rest on any single person.

“The presence or absence of a single individual does not affect this structure,” he said.

Omar Oswaldo Torres, the leader of the Los Mayos faction of the Sinaloa criminal network, was detained in the raid.

Mexican authorities have revealed that 11 people were killed during a raid that resulted in the capture of Omar Oswaldo Torres, the leader of a faction of the Sinaloa Cartel.

In a social media post on Thursday, the Mexican Navy said the raid took place in Culiacan, part of the state of Sinaloa in northern Mexico.

It alleged that its personnel were attacked at the site of the raid and returned fire, killing 11 “assailants”. Their identities have yet to be released to the public.

“High-powered weapons and tactical equipment were seized at the scene,” the navy said in a statement.

The navy added that a woman identified as Torres’s daughter was also present during the operation, but she was released to her family due to a lack of connection to criminal activities.

Torres, known by the nickname “El Patas”, is the leader of the Los Mayos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel.

In recent years, Los Mayos have been in a fight with another faction, Los Chapitos. Each side is named for a different Sinaloa Cartel leader: Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, both of whom have been arrested and imprisoned in the United States.

Thursday’s raid comes as governments across Latin America seek to deliver US President Donald Trump tangible results in the fight against crime and drug trafficking.

Just this week, the Mexican government participated in a law enforcement operation with Ecuador and Colombia to arrest Angel Esteban Aguilar, the leader of the Los Lobos crime group.

A separate Mexican military operation in the state of Jalisco last month led to the death of Nemesio Oseguera, also known as “El Mencho”, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.

Criminal groups responded with a burst of violence, including the erection of roadblocks and attacks on security force outposts across Mexico.

Critics have questioned the efficacy of the more militarised methods Trump has pressured Latin American leaders to use against cartel leaders.

Capturing or killing cartel leaders is sometimes referred to as a “decapitation strategy”, and the method is designed to weaken the structure of criminal networks.

But experts warn that the “decapitation strategy” risks increasing violence over the long term, as new conflicts emerge to fill the leadership vacuum.

Many also point out that such militarised approaches fail to address the root causes of crime, among them corruption and poverty.

Still, Trump has labelled groups like the Sinaloa Cartel “foreign terrorist organisations”, and has indicated he would consider taking military action on Mexican soil against such groups, despite concerns that such actions would violate Mexican sovereignty.

Trump told a summit of Latin American leaders earlier this month that he considered Mexico to be the “epicentre” of cartel violence.

“We have to eradicate them,” Trump said of the cartels. “We have to knock the hell out of them because they’re getting worse. They’re taking over their country. The cartels are running Mexico. We can’t have that.”

Mexican officials, meanwhile, have called on the US to stem the flow of illicit weapons into Mexico, to little avail.

Last year, the Supreme Court struck down a lawsuit from the Mexican government accusing US gun manufacturers of negligence, given that their products end up arming criminal networks in the Latin American country.