Central banks hold rates steady as energy shock tests inflation fight.
Caught between rising inflation and slowing growth, the United States Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are keeping interest rates and borrowing costs steady.
That’s despite rising energy bills, fuel and food costs squeezing businesses and households worldwide.
The International Monetary Fund is warning of a global slowdown, and no one knows how long the energy shock set off by the US-Israel war on Iran will last.
The impact will be felt hardest in emerging markets and developing nations. Central banks face a tough choice: fight rising prices or support a weakening economy.
North American banks accelerated growth by implementing AI and enhancing their client experience.
Across North America, the winners of our Best Banks awards continue to accelerate growth by embedding advanced technology and solutions driven by artificial intelligence throughout their organizations. With the rollout of new platforms and applications, these banks are enhancing the client experience, resulting in increasing levels of digital engagement. Also, partnerships with fintechs and targeted acquisitions are enabling more rapid innovation and expanded service offerings. These efforts are complemented by significant resources allocated to workforce development through enterprise-wide AI implementation, ensuring employees can leverage new technologies to increase innovation and efficiency.
Among the US regional bank winners, large-scale technology initiatives are driving enterprise-wide transformation toward the creation of financial-ecosystem models in which financial services are seamlessly connected across banking platforms. Institutions continue to invest heavily in artificial intelligence, data analytics, and automation to streamline operations and deliver more-personalized client experiences.
Open banking and connectivity enabled by application programming interfaces (APIs) are allowing integration with fintech partners and third-party platforms to expand banking services. With embedded finance, banks are integrating treasury services, payments, and cash management tools directly into client workflows, while partnerships with fintech firms are accelerating innovation.
Darryl White, CEO, BMO Financial Group
North America
Bank of Montreal
Bank of Montreal (BMO), with its leading Canadian franchise and its expanding US operations, is a powerful North American universal bank with robust service offerings across its Canadian personal and commercial banking, US banking, wealth management, and capital markets business lines. Part of BMO’s growth strategy involves new behavioral-engagement tools in personal banking, with the introduction of the “My Financial Progress” platform, a digital planning tool to set financial goals with personalized guidance. Complementary services include apps to help build financial literacy, increase savings, manage spending, and monitor cash flow.
For commercial clients, the bank has launched new embedded finance offerings that are integrated into clients’ enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems to operate seamlessly. The bank launched application programming interfaces (APIs) for payments, enabling businesses to integrate secure, real-time payment capabilities into their ERP systems, treasury platforms, and customer-facing applications.
Fintech partnerships have contributed to new products such as BMO Sync that integrates BMO’s business-banking services directly into client ERP systems. BMO also has introduced programs to empower its workforce, launching its “AI for All” initiative,which will train an all employees to have a working knowledge of AI. The bank also offers specialized learning paths in AI, cloud technology, and cybersecurity.
Canada
Royal Bank of Canada
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) is driving growth through the development of advanced technologies, platform enhancements, and targeted acquisitions. The bank’s small- and midsize business clients benefit from RBC’s joining the Business Development Bank of Canada’s banking network for access to its 800 million Canadian dollar ($583 million) Business Accelerator Loan Program, which provides added liquidity to business owners via loan guarantees to banks in the program.
RBC is a leader in AI research and implementation across its franchise, through the RBC Borealis research lab.With the development of its NOMI digital platform, RBC provides a suite of retail banking solutions via its mobile app, designed to help retail clients more effectively manage their money through the app’s budgeting, spending analysis, and automation features. For institutional investors, the bank developed Aiden, an AI-powered electronic-trading platform that optimizes trade execution. In addition to these in-house initiatives, the bank supports the advancement of the sector via its RBC’s technology banking and innovation arm, RBCx, which provides startups and VC firms with advisory services and access to financing and capital.
United States
Bank Of America
Bank of America’s growth in recent years has been increasingly driven through its expansion of AI-enabled digital solutions. The bank has focused on continuously enhancing its core digital offerings, resulting in high levels of engagement and client satisfaction. In 2025, digital adoption by consumers and small businesses reached 81% and 86% among wealth and global-banking clients, respectively. Over 20 million clients use Erica, the bank’s AI-powered virtual financial assistant. To support greater scale, the bank upgraded the underlying infrastructure of this service, enabling the rollout of next-generation AI capabilities.
AI is also driving internal productivity and client-service improvements. More than 90% of employees now use the Erica for Employees virtual assistant, which has been enhanced with improved search capabilities and broader functionality. Additionally, AI is supporting workforce development through the Academy, the bank’s internal education and training organization, which utilizes interactive coaching tools to help employees deliver more effective and consistent client interactions.
Mid-Atlantic
Truist
Truist is accelerating its growth strategy with the launch of AI-driven solutions, a refocused branch model, and the creation of a role for a chief AI and data officer. To update its physical footprint with integrated technology and modern layouts, the bank will open 100 new insights-driven branches and renovate 300 more branches in high-growth locations across its markets in Mid-Atlantic states and the Southeast. For consumers and small businesses, a new API-based open-banking platform offers connectivity with Mastercard’s open-finance technology for secure and centralized access to the client’s financial data across a growing network of fintech apps.
The bank is introducing scalable solutions to modernize business banking and boost client engagement. In collaboration with global fintech firm Pollinate, Truist introduced Truist Merchant Engage, an integrated merchant-services platform that benefits small- and midsize-business clients through a unified platform combining core banking services with merchant solutions. The result is an improved digital payments experience that includes an intuitive dashboard and tools for data-driven insights to streamline clients’ operations. In payments services, the bank has developed multiple options for commercial and corporate clients. The bank introduced an AI-based receivables platform that uses machine learning for greater simplicity and efficiency through automated payment reconciliation. The resulting accelerated process eliminates invoice errors and improves client cash visibility and fraud protections.
Additionally, Truist partnered with fintech Koxa to introduce Truist One View Connect. Currently a pilot program with an official launch later in the year, this service is an embedded banking solution allowing seamless management of treasury workflows, payments, and cash positions through integration with a client’s enterprise resource planning (ERP) infrastructure. This new product is a new feature of Truist One View, the bank’s flagship digital platform for business clients.
Northeast
Citizens Bank
To improve client service and engagement, Citizens Bank, our winner for the Northeastern region, has launched a multiyear transformation through its “Reimagine the Bank” initiative aimed at implementing advanced technology to modernize its operating model toward a more digitally integrated bank. The program focuses on leveraging generative AI, data analytics, and automation, across the bank’s retail and commercial business lines, standardizing and streamlining internal operational processes and workflows to improve efficiency and drive growth.
As part of the bank’s progress toward open finance and embedded banking, Citizens now offers an open-banking API allowing businesses and third-party applications to connect directly into Citizens’ banking systems to access client data and initiate transactions. The bank has implemented upgrades to its core digital mobile and online banking platform with new direct deposit options. Its new features make it easier to manage and update client payment methods across a range of accounts, including subscription services and online merchant sites.
For commercial clients, accessOPTIMA is the bank’s flagship digital treasury management solution designed to provide a centralized, real-time view of liquidity, cash positions, and payments activity across the organization. New services for commercial clients include the Citizens Payee Select platform, which more efficiently and securely manages business transactions and payment disbursements by shifting payment control to the recipient. This capability was developed in partnership with Verituity, a fintech that creates leading cloud-based payment solutions, a company in which Citizens holds an equity investment
Midwest & Southwest
Fifth Third Bank
With the completed acquisition of Comerica Bank, Fifth Third Bank has solidified its leading franchise in the Midwest and expanded significantly in the Southwest. Fifth Third now ranks as the ninth-largest bank in the US, with $294 billion in assets. The merger combines Fifth Third’s leading retail and digital bank with Comerica’s strong middle-market commercial banking capabilities over a footprint that covers 17 of the 20 fastest-growing markets in the country.
Significant growth opportunities exist with the addition of Comerica’s Technology and Life Sciences business that involves deep relationships with venture-backed and startup companies providing specialized banking, treasury, advisory, and funding solutions through locations in all major technology hubs. Fifth Third Bank’s digital strategy is focused on the enhancement of its mobile platform, expansion of embedded finance capabilities, and the deeper integration of AI-based solutions in its consumer and commercial banking segments. Through Fifth Third’s Provide platform, the bank offers specialized services to health care practices and medical professionals, with valuation advisory services, acquisition loans, and equipment finance. The bank is expanding its services through a partnership with Brex, a fintech specializing in corporate cards and expense management. The solution gives commercial banking-card holders greater efficiency through automated expense management with secure, real-time payments, as well as improved visibility to company spending. The bank expects this initiative to generate upward of $5.6 billion in annual commercial card-payment volume.
Southeast
Regions
Regions, our Best Bank in the Southeast, is in the midst of a multiyear technology-transformation program that includes the expansion of embedded banking capabilities to improve the customer experience across the bank’s retail commercial and specialty-client segments. Enhancements to the bank’s mobile app incorporate client feedback and include a redesigned interface for easier navigation, with shortcuts to features like funds transfer and credit card locking to prevent fraud, as well as new financial planning and budgeting services. The bank offers new capabilities with open-banking services to allow client financial information to be shared securely with third-party service providers.
On the commercial side, Regions has ramped up its treasury management solutions through its Embedded ERP Finance platform that allows clients to access their financial data through their own ERP systems to better manage cash flow, optimize liquidity, and reduce risk. Specialty services to niche industries are a competitive advantage for Regions. Home improvement contractors can offer financing options to their homeowner clients to pay for projects. For health care clients, a new treasury management service is powered by MediStreams, a health care platform focusing on payment automation and reconciliation. Additional specialized services include a digital portal that allows real estate banking clients to more efficiently manage their construction projects. The portal is supported by Built, a real estate and construction-finance platform that streamlines project financing, development, and management, with client access through a centralized hub.
West
BMO Harris Bank
BMO’s growth strategy in the United States is fueled by the bank’s “One Client” coverage model to ensure customers experience BMO as one integrated bank. This involves technology alignment and use of shared data across business units to better identify client needs and deliver more-personalized service. With new digital services and AI-led advancements, the bank is positioned to build on its significant and growing US franchise that accounted for 42% of group revenue in fiscal year 2025. The franchise is bolstered by an expanding top-15 consumer bank with over 850 banking centers in the Midwest and Western US regions, as well as a top-5 commercial business.
As part of BMO’s branch rationalization to exit low-return markets in favor of higher growth areas, the bank sold 138 branches in the central US. The bank aims to foster closer client engagement through tailored financial solutions with access to in-person financial guidance. BMO is moving to capture more clients in fast-growing markets in the Western US with a multiyear strategy involving the modernization of existing locations and expansion of its footprint through the opening of 130 new community banking hubs in California and 15 in Arizona over the next five years.
On the commercial side, new product launches include BMO Sync, an embedded solution that integrates BMO’s full range of business-banking services directly into client ERP systems to streamline workflows. Payment APIs enable commercial clients across the US to add secure, real-time payment capabilities into their ERP systems, treasury platforms, and customer-facing applications for efficiency and transparency. A key driver of the bank’s progress is its commitment to a unified corporate culture. With the launch of its “AI for All” initiative, an enterprise-wide foundational training program, BMO ensures that all employees develop a working knowledge of AI. The bank also offers specialized learning paths in AI, cloud technology, and cybersecurity as well as the opportunity to develop technical skills through Pluralsight, a digital learning platform.
Western Europe’s banks were well capitalized, digitally evolving, and strategically acquisitive—despite rate headwinds.
After the exceptional windfall years of 2022 and 2023, when aggressive rate hikes fattened net interest margins, most Western European banks had a strong 2024, particularly the larger players with extensive branch networks and franchises. Fast forward to 2025, and a more sobering reality dawned. The European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) easing cycle was well underway, and with it came the question that had been quietly forming in the minds of analysts and investors alike: Could Western Europe’s banks sustain their profitability once the rate tailwind turned to a headwind? The evidence now clearly answers that question in the affirmative—though not without adaptation, and not without some pointed lessons along the way.
The headline story is one of structural resilience, corroborated at the highest levels: In the ECB’s Annual Report on Supervisory Activities published in March 2026, the bank confirms that banks under its direct supervision “remained resilient in 2025,” with the aggregate Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio (CET1 ratio) of “significant institutions” climbing to 16.1% in the third quarter of 2025, driven by strong profitability and retained earnings. Return on equity (ROE) stabilized at around 10% across the sector—modest by the standards of the best performers in our latest Best Banks ranking.
Separately, the European Banking Authority’s (EBA’s) Autumn 2025 Risk Assessment Report affirms that European banks “remain strong in capital, liquidity, profitability and asset quality,” even as the report urges “continued vigilance” in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and rising operational risks. This picture is richly illustrated by the individual performers in this year’s awards, where CET1 ratios frequently exceed the European average by a wide margin.
Yet the year was not without its disappointments. Margin pressure was real, and pockets of weakness were visible. The EBA itself warns that declining net interest income has been a systemic challenge, offset only where banks had successfully diversified into fee and commission income.
That diversification imperative made M&A one of the defining strategic trends of the period—and it shows no sign of abating. DNB’s acquisition of Nordic asset manager Carnegie Holding and Bank of Cyprus’ purchase of Ethniki Insurance, for example, reflect a sector in active pursuit of scale, complementary revenue streams, and fintech capability.
KPMG 2025 Banking and Capital Markets CEO Outlook, published January 2026, adds important context here, however: “The vast majority of CEOs surveyed expect to be active in the deal market over the coming three years, although fewer envisage ‘high-impact’ deals (down from 48% to 41%). Instead, 46% favor ‘moderate-impact’ acquisitions, primarily targeting fintechs, digital lending platforms, and RegTech [regulatory technology] firms to accelerate innovation without overextending capital.” Overall, European banks recognize a strategic need for scale, with momentum toward both domestic consolidation and cross-border deals and are hoping that a more favorable regulatory environment may emerge to support this.
In Western Europe, technology and ESG have become structural pillars rather than peripheral initiatives. Danske Bank has leaned into generative AI (Gen AI) to support retail investment growth, while UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti highlights the role of transformational AI projects in bolstering operational resilience as the Credit Suisse integration approaches completion. Swedbank’s 99.9% digital uptime across Swedish and Baltic operations is now as commercially significant as any lending figure. On sustainability, Eurobank leads its Greek peers with over €6.9 billion ($8.1 billion) in sustainable financing; UniCredit has issued €6.5 billion in green bonds since 2021; and CaixaBank has become the first Spanish bank to receive a Sustainable Finances certification from AENOR, the Spanish Association for Standardization and Certification.
But the technological evolution carries a shadow. According to the KPMG CEO Outlook, cyber risk is now the number-one factor that could slow growth—cited by 86% of banking CEOs, up from 81% in 2024—and cybersecurity ranks as the top challenge facing banks globally, ahead of every other sector in KPMG’s survey. This reflects the uniquely exposed position of banks, whose large customer bases and access to highly confidential data make them prime targets. As digital-banking platforms, open-banking APIs, and AI tools expand attack surfaces, hackers are increasingly deploying AI to pursue payment fraud and install ransomware. It is little surprise, then, that 57% of banking CEOs are “prioritizing cybersecurity above all other investments.” The EBA echoes this concern, warning that elevated geopolitical risks are amplifying operational and cyber threats, and that banks must invest continuously in resilience infrastructure.
As we publish our annual Best Banks award winners, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. Rate normalization will continue to test income generation; geopolitical friction shows no sign of resolution. But the weight of evidence—from individual bank results, from the EBA, and from the ECB itself—points consistently in the same direction: Western Europe’s leading banks have diversified their revenues, fortified their capital, and earned ratings improvements to match. Resilience, it turns out, is not merely a buzzword for these banks—it’s a strategy.
Gonzalo Gortázar, CEO, CaixaBank
Western Europe
CaixaBank
Once again, CaixaBank has secured a dual victory as the Best Bank in Western Europe and the premier financial institution in its home country, Spain—a distinction the bank has now achieved for a remarkable eight consecutive years.
A domestic market leader, CaixaBank operates a “socially responsible universal banking model with a long-term vision, based on quality, proximity, omnichanneling, and specialization.”
The bank reports a net attributable profit of nearly €5.9 billion for 2025, net interest income of almost €10.7 billion, and an ROE of 14.9%. Revenues from services—including wealth management, protection insurance, and banking fees—were up 5.4% to nearly €5.3 billion. New loan origination to individuals grew 12.4% to almost €2.6 billion. New mortgage lending rose 6.5% to reach nearly €8.5 billion, while lending to businesses increased 7.6% to reach about €12.4 billion.
Exceeding both targets and expectations, CaixaBank has raised the growth and profitability targets set out in its 2025-2027 Strategic Plan.
CaixaBank’s commitment to the communities it serves was evident once again last year, with initiatives encompassing financial-inclusion solutions with a social impact, regional social projects, and a steadfast commitment to the environment. The bank is an Iberian and European leader in sustainable and socially responsible investment.
Reflecting the strength of the bank’s performance, Fitch Ratings revised CaixaBank’s Outlook to Positive from Stable in October while affirming both its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating and its Viability Rating at A-. Fitch also upgraded the bank’s Short-Term IDR to F1 from F2.
The agency says its outlook reflects its “expectation that CaixaBank’s leading domestic position and diversified business profile will enable it to capture additional growth opportunities stemming from Spain’s economy, rising credit demand and favorable business trends,” adding that these factors will “gradually strengthen CaixaBank’s earnings resilience through the interest rate and economic cycles.”
Andorra
Creand Credit Andorra
The winner for the eighth consecutive year, Creand Credit Andorra (formerly Credit Andorra) boasts over 75 years of experience in the principality, offering a comprehensive suite of global private banking, asset management, and insurance services. The bank posted a robust 2024 profit of €70.9 million, representing a solid performance following its exceptional 60% profit surge in 2023. Business volume reached €30.7 billion, an 11.1% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Beyond the group’s financial strength, it remains a key local employer with 508 staff in Andorra, where women make up 48% of the workforce.
Austria
UniCredit Bank Austria
One of the largest retail banks and best-capitalized major financial institutions in Austria, UniCredit Bank Austriais a leader in corporate banking, wealth, and private banking. As of September 2025, the bank’s key performance indicators included a return on allocated capital of 23% and a cost-income ratio of 39%—demonstrating best-in-class cost efficiency compared to its peers. The bank’s CET1 ratio of 18.6% reflects a prudent capital base. Revenues came in at €2 billion, while gross operating profit stood at €1.2 billion. UniCredit serves around 15 million clients through its corporate, individual, and payment solutions groups in Austria, Germany, Italy, and Central and Eastern Europe. Reporting its 20th consecutive quarter of profitable growth in the fourth quarter, the group says its vision is to be “the bank for Europe’s future.”
Belgium
KBC
In the beating heart of Europe, KBC wins the laurels as our Best Bank in Belgium. Net income at the end of June 2025 was €1.6 billion, up 9% YoY. Total assets were €390.7 billion. The group reported a strong capital base with a 14.6% CET1 ratio and an ROE of 15% for the period. A FTSE4Good Index Series constituent, the bank continues its sustainability journey, receiving recognition annually in the S&P Sustainability Yearbook of top performers.
Cyprus
Bank of Cyprus
It was another year of robust performance for Bank of Cyprus, which saw total assets rise 8% to €28.6 billion in 2025. While profit after tax moderated slightly to €481 million (down 5% YoY), the bank’s 37% cost-income ratio and strengthened 21% CET1 ratio underscore its market-leading efficiency and capital discipline. The bank’s €29.3 million acquisition of Ethniki Insurance Cyprus marked a significant step in diversifying its business model and bolstering noninterest income streams.
Denmark
Danske Bank
Offering a full range of retail, corporate, and institutional services, Danske Bank returns as our Best Bank in Denmark for the third time in a row. In 2025, a resilient Danish economy contributed to a 5% growth in business lending and a surge in retail investment activity that pushed assets under management (AUM) across the group to over 1 trillion Danish kroner (more than $157.3 billion). The bank’s Danish operations served as the primary engine for a group ROE of 13.3%. Growth was also supported by new partnerships and digital rollouts, including platform enhancements and the use of Gen AI. The bank maintained a robust CET1 ratio of 17.3% and a CAR of 20.9%, reflecting highly disciplined capital management by both European and Nordic banking standards.
Finland
Nordea
Returning to the top spot as our Best Bank in Finland, Nordea reports a record €478 billion in AUM in 2025, up 13% YoY. With an ROE of 15.5% and a CET1 ratio of 15.7%, this profitable, efficient universal bank drew its 2022-2025 strategy to a successful close. That included receipt of approval from the Finnish Competition and Consumer Authority for a partnership with domestic rival OP Financial Group to combine efforts in solving consumer and business payments challenges.
France
Groupe BPCE
Groupe BPCE’s net banking income was up an impressive 10% YoY to €25.7 billion in 2025; while gross operating income rose some 22% to reach some €8.4 billion. Bolstered by a CET1 ratio of 16.5%, the banking group employs 100,000 staff, serving 35 million customers worldwide, including consumers, professionals, companies, investors, and local authorities. The banking group says it plans to recruit 16,000 employees in 2026, including 10,000 in the Banques Populaires and Caisses d’Epargne networks. Nearly half of these recruitments will target young people, as part of the bank’s partnership with state-run agency France Travail.
Germany
Commerzbank
Another year, another record net income, and another win for Commerzbank—our Best Bank in Germany for the fourth year running. Net income for the first half of 2025 was up 0.9% to €1.3 billion; while total assets reached €582 billion, and total revenues rose 12.5% to €6.1 billion. Despite a dip in the bank’s CET1 ratio to 14.6% and its ROE to a low 8.1%, Commerzbank improved its cost-income ratio to 56% while absorbing €534 million in restructuring expenses. The Frankfurt-based financial institution continues to fend off a UniCredit takeover, a move the Italian giant has pursued since 2024. With almost 40,000 employees, Commerzbank’s ESG goals include net-zero operations by 2040 and portfolio neutrality by 2050.
Greece
Eurobank
Our winner continued its run in Greece; Eurobank achieved remarkable growth across loans, deposits and AUM in the first half of 2025—rising YoY by €5.3 billion, €4 billion, and 30%, respectively. Domestic assets reached €62.8 billion, supported by €37.3 billion in gross loans and €45.2 billion in deposits. Beyond the balance sheet, the group leveraged its performance to drive social impact, strengthening its startup incubator and funding significant public-school renovations. Notably, Eurobank leads its peers with over €6.9 billion in sustainable financing and an upward trend in Article 8 AUM, now exceeding €230 million. Article 8 funds are predominantly ESG compliant. The bank’s market-leading position was further solidified in 2025 through its acquisition of Eurolife’s life insurance business.
Iceland
Arion Bank
Arion Bank may be on the smaller side of the three major Icelandic banks, but what it lacks in size it made up for in efficiency and performance in 2025. The bank reports group AUM of 2 trillion Icelandic kronur ($15.9 billion), net earnings of 30.6 billion kronur, an ROE of 14.9%, a cost-income ratio of 42.3% and a CET1 ratio of 18.4%. Arion Bank’s service offering creates a broad revenue base, with a loan portfolio that is well diversified between retail and corporate customers. The bank is in merger discussions with Kvika Bank, currently the country’s fourth-largest bank, under which terms Arion Bank’s existing shareholders would hold 74% of the combined entity. The merger, which is expected to complete in late 2026, would be one of Iceland’s largest.
Ireland
AIB
AIB returns for a third year running as our Best Bank in Ireland. Serving a customer base of over 3.3 million, the Emerald Isle’s biggest bank posted a solid first half, with a €927 million profit after tax and a 21.4% return on tangible equity (ROTE), bolstered by a robust 16.4% CET1 ratio. 2025 saw the bank return to full private ownership, as well as the launch of its new slogan, “For the life you’re after,” encapsulating its commitments to customers, community, and sustainability.
Italy
UniCredit
Our Best Bank in Italy for the third consecutive year is UniCredit. While gross revenue moderated 3.1% to €11 billion, Italy remains the undisputed earnings powerhouse of the UniCredit group, contributing 41% of the total €10.6 billion net profit. With a unique Pan-European footprint and group assets reaching €870 billion at year-end 2025, UniCredit leverages its stability and low risk exposure to lead the continent’s green transition. The bank is making significant strides toward its 2050 net-zero target, notably through its €11.3 billion in environmental lending and the issuance of €6.5 billion in green bonds since 2021. In 2025, UniCredit deepened its domestic ESG impact through initiatives like Salotti Energia to build ESG awareness among Italian corporates and the One4Planet, Water Management loan. Furthermore, its Banking Academy Italy continues to drive social value, launching the Conta per Me primary school program and advanced fraud prevention training to protect the domestic retail base.
Lichtenstein
LGT
Liechtenstein’s largest player, LGT, continues its six-year unbroken winning streak. Total operating income increased 10% YoY to over 1.4 billion Swiss francs (more than $1.7 billion) in the first half of the year, group profits surged 38% to 240.6 million francs, and AUM reached 359.6 billion francs. While the bank trimmed its cost-income ratio to 75.7%, the figure remains high. Offsetting this is an impressive 18.5% CET1 ratio, reflecting the superior capital strength of this bank owned by the country’s royal family.
Luxembourg
BGL BNP Paribas
Our winner in Luxembourg, BGL BNP Paribas, reported first-half 2025 revenues of €315 million, up from €300 million for the same period in the previous year. With almost 2,100 employees in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, the bank provides universal services with a strategic emphasis on corporate and institutional clients. With deep regional roots dating back over a century, BGL BNP Paribas remains a cornerstone of Luxembourg’s economic landscape. Looking ahead, the bank is set to be a key driver of the group’s transition strategy, targeting 90% low-carbon energy financing by 2030.
Malta
Bank of Valletta
Malta’s banking sector remains highly concentrated; and with a 41% market share and total assets of €15.6 billion as of first-half 2025, Bank of Valletta is the most dominant domestic and commercial player in the sector—as well as our 2026 Best Bank in Malta. While the group registered a first-half profit before tax of €135.1 million (slightly down from €148.2 million in first-half 2024), return on average equity stood at 18.9% and CET1 ratio at 21.3%—a breakwater typical of the Mediterranean island.
Monaco
CFM Indosuez Wealth Management
Although its net income for 2024 fell slightly to €59.4 million, a 2.4% decrease from 2023, CFM Indosuez Wealth Management remains the leading player in Monaco. Despite lower interest rates and an unstable geopolitical context, wealth under custody grew 8.4%. “Customer business grew significantly, underpinned by strong new business momentum, a satisfactory performance in market activities and continued robust loan production.” Revenue increased 1.1% to €199.4 million driven by dynamic transactional business, though performance was impacted by a 2.1% rise in operating expenses due to inflation.
Netherlands
ING Group
Amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the CEO of ING Group, Steven van Rijswijk hailed 2025 as a year in which the major global bank consistently executed its “strategy of accelerating growth, increasing impact and further diversifying income by doing more business with more customers and clients.” And so, returning for a third consecutive year, ING is once again our winner in the Netherlands, delivering strong commercial growth in its European base while achieving €23 billion in total income across the group. This was supported by an uptick in the bank’s customer base and a 15% rise in fee income to €4.6 billion. Commercial net interest income meanwhile came in at €15.3 billion. Achieving €56.9 billion in lending growth—more than double that of the previous year—ING’s net result for the year was broadly stable at €6.3 billion. The bank reports a 13.2% ROE and a 13.1% CET1 ratio. Of all its major markets, the Netherlands was a key driver and contributor to the bank’s growth in 2025.
Norway
DNB
Keeping its crown as the Best Bank in Norway for the fourth year in a row, DNB remains the dominant player in its home market, balancing massive scale with high profitability. Offering a full suite of retail, corporate, and investment banking, DNB maintained a strong reputation over the year, reporting an annualized ROE of 15.6%. Profits rose by 1.5% in the first half of 2025 to 21.3 billion Norwegian kroner ($2.1 billion), driven by solid performance across the group, and supported by a Norwegian economy that held up well in an unpredictable global environment. In 2025, the bank completed its 12 billion Swedish kronor ($1.2 billion) acquisition of Carnegie, a Nordic asset manager with 850 employees, strengthening DNB’s position in investment banking and wealth management.
Portugal
Banco Santander Totta
In Portugal, it is another consecutive win for Banco Santander Totta, which continued its growth strategy in 2025 via rigorous commercial and operational optimization. In a year defined by falling interest rates, it remained the most profitable bank and a benchmark for efficiency, posting a 31.8% ROTE and a 28% efficiency ratio while achieving a net profit of €963.8 million.
During this time, the bank continued to grow its customer base, particularly in high-value segments. Active customers increased by 40,000 to more than 1.9 million; while digital customers rose 5.1% to over 1.3 million, now representing 68% of the total base. This growth translated into a growth in commercial activity, with over 100,000 new accounts opened, 1.3 million daily transactions (up by 9.7%), and more than 327,000 new cardholders added.
Sweden
Swedbank
Swedbank had another successful year, with an ROE higher than the bank’s target of 15%—and according to president and CEO Jens Henriksson, “proof that our business model works.” The bank’s Swedish operations account for 71% of the group’s customer base; overall it serves a total of 7.3 million private customers and 545,000 corporate customers across Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—offering loans, savings, payments, insurance, and daily banking services. In 2025, digital investments contributed to uptime of 99.9% for Swedbank’s app and internet bank for Sweden and the Baltic countries. This is a key focus for the bank as it sets out to improve its customer experience, with the aim “to make it easy to manage everyday matters digitally.”
Switzerland
UBS
For the sixth consecutive year, UBShas earned our Best Bank in Switzerland distinction. Throughout 2025, the bank remained laser focused on the Credit Suisse integration, which is slated for substantial completion by the end of 2026. A disciplined approach yielded a $7.8 billion net profit, supported by a solid 14.4% CET1 ratio, despite an 81.1% cost-income ratio.
CEO Sergio Ermotti attributed this performance to a “global, diversified franchise” that helped clients navigate market volatility. He further highlighted the bank’s digital evolution, noting that transformational AI projects are successfully bolstering operational resilience and improving client experience. As the Credit Suisse integration enters its final stages, industry attention is shifting toward the leadership transition following Ermotti’s planned 2027 departure.
United Kingdom
HSBC
HSBC is our Best Bank in the UK for the second consecutive year. HSBC UK employs 18,000 full-time staff across the country, serving over 15.3 million customers. For the year ending December 31, 2025, it posted a profit before tax of £5.6 billion ($7.5 billion). Revenue increased by £489 million, or 5%, to £10.5 billion, driven by higher net interest income. The bank’s ROTE of 19.2% was one percentage point lower than 2024, driven by growth in commercial lending. Supported by a 13.2% CET1 ratio and an 175% liquidity-coverage ratio, the its balance sheet remained resilient against a challenging economic backdrop.
Tan Su Shan, CEO and director of DBS Group—winner of this year’s Best Bank in Asia-Pacific—discusses the benefit of AI investments.
As global banks navigate trade fragmentation, AI disruption and volatile markets, DBS continues to distinguish itself through strong profitability and an aggressive technology strategy.
In this conversation with Deputy CEO Tan Su Shan, the bank’s leadership discusses how DBS surpassed $100 billion in market capitalization, scaled AI across hundreds of use cases and positioned itself to benefit from shifting intra-Asia trade flows.
Tan also outlines the challenges posed by tariffs, foreign-exchange swings and the accelerating evolution of generative and agentic AI as DBS looks toward 2026.
Global Finance: What factors shaped your bank’s performance in 2025?
Tan Su Shan: We delivered a solid financial performance in 2025, reflecting the resilience of our diversified franchise. Our total income and profit before tax hit new highs of S$22.9 billion ($18 billion) and S$13.1 billion, respectively. Return on equity (ROE) was 16.2%, within our medium-term target and several percentage points above our local and global peers.
A big part of our success was being well-positioned to capture structural growth opportunities arising from the shifting macro landscape, including rising intra-Asia trade and investment flows, as well as new trade and supply corridors between Asia and other regions such as Europe.
GF: What role did Al play in that performance?
Tan: We aim to sustain our leadership as an AI-enabled bank with a heart, using technology to deliver a competitive advantage while creating tangible impact for customers.
We have industrialized AI at scale, deploying more than 430 use cases—four times 2021 levels—powered by over 2,000 sophisticated models. These have delivered measurable outcomes, including stronger risk management, improved controls, and productivity gains. In 2025, our data analytics and AI/ML initiatives generated approximately S$1 billion in economic value.
Building on this foundation, we are embedding Gen AI and Agentic AI into customer journeys and internal workflows. Horizontal capabilities such as our DBS-GPT proprietary generative AI platform provide role-based access to millions of internal documents, accelerating decision-making and problem-solving. Vertical solutions such as DBS Joy, our Gen AI-enabled chatbot, deliver always-on, high-quality customer support at scale, improving customer satisfaction by 23% while handling more than 235,000 AI-powered interactions. Together, these capabilities lift productivity, decision quality, and customer experience by combining machine intelligence with human judgment.
GF: Which milestones did DBS reach in 2025?
Tan: It was a landmark year for DBS, notwithstanding global volatility, and the market’s confidence in our franchise has never been clearer. We surpassed the $100 billion market capitalization milestone in June and closed the year at $124 billion, cementing our position among the top 25 banks globally.
Moving ahead, we remain focused on building a resilient, growth-oriented, and future-ready market leader, anchored by our three strategic moats of trust, data, and culture.
GF: What was 2025’s greatest challenge for DBS?
Tan: Undoubtedly, our greatest challenge was the onset of tariffs following Liberation Day and the market volatility that followed. When you layer on headwinds from interest rates and significant FX fluctuations, you create a perfect storm we had to navigate. Despite these pressures, DBS delivered a solid financial performance. We achieved this by being proactive with our balance sheet hedging, securing record deposit inflows, and maintaining a sharp, strategic focus on high-ROE businesses such as wealth management.
At the same time, technology continued to move at a breathtaking pace, especially with the rapid shift toward Gen AI and Agentic AI. Fortunately, we weren’t starting from scratch, as we have been working with AI for more than a decade. Our early and sustained investments in data and technology gave us the robust foundation needed to industrialize AI across hundreds of meaningful use cases, positioning us to move quickly as the techno-logy evolves.
GF: Does 2026 present new challenges?
Tan: Our strategic priorities remain intact, and in 2026, we will continue leveraging our core strengths—what we term the “4 Ds”: Dependable, Diversifier, Digital, and Disruptor—to be a beacon of stability for our customers amid heightened volatility.
We have embarked on our vision to become an AI-enabled bank with a heart, transforming our operating models, leveraging machine intelligence, and preserving human empathy to reinforce the trust customers place in us. We will continue scaling our structural growth engines, which remain relevant even in a more bifurcated world.
This includes prioritizing growth in high-ROE businesses such as wealth management, transaction services, financial institutions group, and treasury customer sales. We also remain focused on our six core markets in Asia (Singapore, Hong Kong, India, Taiwan, China, and Indonesia) and on building connectivity between our Western and Asian clients. Strengthening resilience across every organizational layer remains a key, ongoing priority.
The money-saving guru has urged those who have paid for trips with major holiday firms and airlines to avoid the DIY approach
15:04, 08 May 2026Updated 15:15, 08 May 2026
Martin Lewis gave advice for anyone booking holidays amid the Iran conflict(Image: ITV)
Martin Lewis has delivered a stark warning to anyone who has already booked a holiday for this summer – and explained why people could be making a big mistake getting flights and hotels separately. In a recent update, the money-saving guru has urged those who have paid for trips with major holiday firms and airlines, including TUI, Jet2, Ryanair, Wizz, easyJet and British Airways, to pay close attention.
It was suggested this week that the UK could be worst hit by jet fuel shortages because it has ‘critically low levels’ of supplies and poor refining tools, by Goldman Sachs. The giant investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a research note to clients: “The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer.”
During his Money Show Live on ITV, the financial expert responded to an audience member who asked: ‘If my flight’s cancelled due to no jet fuel will you definitely receive at the moment package holidays give you a certain as well.’ Mr Lewis explained that holidaymakers would lose their hotel booking costs if they had arranged accommodation independently from flights reserved with airlines such as Jet2, TUI, Wizz, Ryanair or easyJet – as they would not be protected under consumer regulations.
He said: “No. And I think this is what people need to be very aware of. If you booked a package holiday where you booked everything in one, then under the package holiday regulations and rules and protections generally if your flight went you would get everything back.”
He added: “And so actually at the moment package holidays give you a certain level of extra security that you wouldn’t get if you did a DIY booking where you bought your hotel and flight separately.” The reason for this, he explained, stems from the fact that the hotel reservation itself remains entirely valid: “Because the point is if you lose your flight and you’ve DIY booked, there’s nothing wrong with your hotel.
“The issue is you can’t get there. Your hotel is still there. It’s not faulty. It’s not cancelling. So, you don’t have those consumer rights.” If the accommodation provider hasn’t violated any terms, then guests might examine how they’ve paid for their booking – but that route offers no solution either. He said: “So, you would then say, ‘What about using a credit card or debit card protection?’ It won’t work because there’s nothing faulty. And that’s just giving you the same replica rights that you would have with the retailer.”
For those still seeking a solution, travel insurance may seem like the next logical port of call. Mr Lewis revealed: “So, you’ then say, ‘What about travel insurance?’ This is the bad bit. We were checking 40 travel insurance policies. Of those, only a few would have covered you for the knock-on eventuality of your flight being cancelled due to jet fuel and then your hotel costs.
“Only about three or four and most of those were package bank accounts where it’s linked to your bank account. Only one standalone provider. So we need to be blunt at the moment. There is a big risk in those circumstances. If you’re booking, you want something with free or limited cancellation quite short before. So you could just cancel it. You should always talk to the provider.
“Government are saying there isn’t one at the moment and they’re working on consolidating flights and doing things so there won’t be one, but people’s hotel costs if they book separately and other knock-on costs are potentially at risk.”
Speaking on his ITV programme, he also cautioned that neglecting to take one vital step after booking could leave holidaymakers with absolutely nothing if their plans fall through. With the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East sparking serious worries over jet fuel supplies, Mr Lewis warned that those who book a holiday and put off arranging insurance could risk losing everything should something go wrong in the interim.
Mr Lewis emphasised that travel insurance ought to be bought the instant a holiday is booked: “The reason you do that is because half of the cover you’re paying for is in case something happens that stops you going before the trip. And if you don’t have the travel insurance place, you’ve got no cover. So, you may as well have it in place. But at this time of year when many people have already booked, I have a slight adaptation, which is this. If you’ve booked and you don’t have it yet, just get it now.
“Get it done as soon as possible.” A Money Show Live viewer named David said: “I booked flights to Australia for a family group of seven to travel in March next year. I took out insurance immediately. One of our group is now pregnant and can’t travel on the dates planned. It costs £5,000 to reschedule, which I’m happy to report the insurance covered.”
Mr Lewis also commented on the complexities facing larger groups: “Very quick aside on that, think of who you’re booking for. So, if it’s a family group and one can’t go, they’ll often cover you. But if there’s a large group of friends going, you often all get independent travel insurance. Well, then if one can’t go or and you can’t all go on the trip, it’s only the person who’s who’s got that cover. So, you’d need a group insurance policy so that if one can’t go, you all can’t go.”
Jet2 today said now people choosing a package holiday as their preferred method of booking is up 5% to 51% since February. In the same period, the number of people preferring to book through different providers has dropped by six percentage points to 20%. Those choosing ‘accommodation only’ has dropped to 2%.
The primary reasons for choosing a package holiday have remained steady, with value (36%) and ease (36%) the main drivers, however the benefit of ‘added security with one provider, ATOL/ABTA protection’ has increased by four percentage points since February to 26% the poll said.
This protection means that customers are covered should any changes happen to their bookings, including the option of receiving refunds if their travel plans are cancelled, and that those holidays are held to the highest standards when it comes to customer service, changes to bookings, and health & safety.
Jet2 has confirmed it will not introduce surcharges on any booked flights or holidays to cover cost increases, for example jet fuel, assuring customers that the price they book with Jet2 is the price they will pay.
Steve Heapy, CEO of Jet2 said: “Consumers want assurance during times of uncertainty and package holidays provide that assurance. On top of all the protection that our package holidays guarantee, Jet2 is well known as being a consumer champion that goes above and beyond to look after customers. Ahead of a busy summer season, this means new and existing customers know that their well-deserved holidays are in the very best hands with us, and we are very excited about welcoming everyone onboard and taking them on their breaks.”
Money expert on his ITV show said ‘there is a big risk in those circumstances’
11:08, 30 Apr 2026Updated 12:40, 30 Apr 2026
Martin Lewis has explained what people need to do if they’re booking for this summer(Image: ITV)
Martin Lewis has warned anyone booking their summer holiday that they won’t get their money back if their flight is cancelled and they’re unable to reach their hotel – provided they’ve booked in a particular way. During his Money Show Live on ITV last night, the financial expert was questioned by an audience member: ‘If my flight’s cancelled due to no jet fuel will you definitely receive all your money back even for your hotel booking as well.’
Mr Lewis clarified that travellers would forfeit their hotel booking fees if they’ve arranged it separately from their flights booked with operators like Jet2, TUI, Wizz, Ryanair, easyJet – as they won’t be protected by consumer regulations. He said: “No. And I think this is what people need to be very aware of. If you booked a package holiday where you booked everything in one, then under the package holiday regulations and rules and protections generally if your flight went you would get everything back.
“And so actually at the moment package holidays give you a certain level of extra security that you wouldn’t get if you did a DIY booking where you bought your hotel and flight separately.”
This is because there’s nothing amiss with the hotel reservation itself, he explained: “Because the point is if you lose your flight and you’ve DIY booked, there’s nothing wrong with your hotel. The issue is you can’t get there. Your hotel is still there. It’s not faulty. It’s not cancelling. So, you don’t have those consumer rights.”
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If the hotel hasn’t done anything wrong, then travellers might look at how they’ve arranged their booking – but there’s little relief to be found there. He said: “So, you would then say, ‘What about using a credit card or debit card protection?’ It won’t work because there’s nothing faulty. And that’s just giving you the same replica rights that you would have with the retailer.”
Finally, people may turn to their travel insurance. Mr Lewis explained: “So, you then say, ‘What about travel insurance?’ This is the bad bit. We were checking 40 travel insurance policies. Of those, only a few would have covered you for the knock-on eventuality of your flight being cancelled due to jet fuel and then your hotel costs.”
“Only about three or four and most of those were package bank accounts where it’s linked to your bank account. Only one standalone provider. So we need to be blunt at the moment. There is a big risk in those circumstances. If you’re booking, you want something with free or limited cancellation quite short before. So you could just cancel it. You should always talk to the provider.
“The reason this is important to know is if you are in that position once you understand you have no rights and they say, ‘Well, we’ll give you a voucher and you can come back in 6 months.’ You suddenly realise you’re doing well, not badly, right? If you didn’t have free cancellation and that this is going to be a problem if we get to that jet fuel shortage.
“Government are saying there isn’t one at the moment and they’re working on consolidating flights and doing things so there won’t be one, but people’s hotel costs if they book separately and other knock-on costs are potentially at risk.”
Ryanair, easyJet, and TUI ban electrical item – what passengers need to know – The Mirror
Need to know
Airlines have strict rules on power banks and batteries, with some banning them entirely while others only allow them in cabin hand luggage
Airline passengers have been told some items must only be put in cabin luggage and not used while taking off(Image: Getty Images)
Power Bank Flight Rules: What You Need to Know
Airlines have issued strict warnings to passengers about packing power banks and electrical items in hold baggage due to serious safety concerns.
Some carriers including Vietnam Airlines, Vietjet Air and Emirates have completely banned power banks, while budget airlines like Ryanair, EasyJet and TUI still permit them but only with tight restrictions.
According to UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) safety experts, lithium batteries pose a danger on planes primarily due to their potential to enter “thermal runaway,” a phenomenon where a battery experiences a rapid, uncontrollable rise in temperature, resulting in fire, explosion, and the release of toxic fumes.
Ryanair allows up to 15 personal electronic devices but requires spare batteries to be individually protected in original packaging or with taped terminals. Power banks must be stored under seats, not in overhead lockers, and cannot exceed 100Wh.
EasyJet strictly bans all lithium batteries from hold luggage and requires power banks under 100Wh to be carried in cabin baggage only. Those between 100-160Wh need airline authorisation.
TUI forbids loose lithium batteries in checked luggage and caps power bank capacity at 100Wh, with terminals safeguarded against short circuits.
The new rules reflect growing concerns about battery fires mid-flight, with some airlines now prohibiting the use of power banks during flights entirely.
The announcement on Friday is expected to clear the path for the confirmation of his successor, Kevin Warsh.
Published On 24 Apr 202624 Apr 2026
The United States Department of Justice has ended its probe into US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, clearing a major roadblock to the confirmation of his successor, Kevin Warsh.
US Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeannine Pirro said on X on Friday that her office was ending its probe into the Fed’s extensive building renovations because the Fed’s inspector general would scrutinise them instead.
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Pirro, a Trump ally and the top federal prosecutor in Washington, DC, said she had instead asked the Fed’s internal watchdog, the Office of Inspector General, to examine cost overruns in renovations of the central bank’s Washington headquarters.
“The IG has the authority to hold the Federal Reserve accountable to American taxpayers,” Pirro said in a social media post. “I expect a comprehensive report in short order and am confident the outcome will assist in resolving, once and for all, the questions that led this office to issue subpoenas.”
The move could lead to a swift confirmation vote by the Senate for Warsh, a former top Fed official whom US President Donald Trump, a Republican, nominated in January to replace Powell. Powell’s term as chair ends May 15.
Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, had said he would oppose Warsh until the investigation was resolved, effectively blocking his confirmation.
The leadership transition at the world’s leading central bank could now proceed quickly.
Republicans praised Warsh during a Tuesday hearing even as Democrats questioned his independence from Trump, the lack of transparency around some of his financial holdings, and what they said was his flip-flopping on interest rates. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the committee, questioned if Warsh will be a “sock puppet“.
Still, Trump’s previous appointment to the Fed’s board of governors, Stephen Miran, was approved by the full Senate just 13 days after his nomination.
No evidence
The investigation was among several undertaken by the Department of Justice into Trump’s perceived adversaries. For months, it had failed to gain traction as prosecutors struggled to articulate a basis to suspect criminal conduct.
A prosecutor handling the case conceded at a closed-door court hearing in March that the government had not yet found any evidence of a crime, and a judge subsequently quashed subpoenas issued to the Federal Reserve.
The judge, James Boasberg, said prosecutors had produced “essentially zero evidence” to suspect Powell of a crime. Boasberg branded prosecutors’ justification for the subpoenas as “thin and unsubstantiated”.
More recently, prosecutors made an unannounced visit to a construction site at the Fed’s headquarters but were turned away, drawing a rebuke from a defence lawyer in the case who called the manoeuvre “not appropriate”.
Warsh said during the Senate hearing on Tuesday that he never promised the White House that he would cut interest rates, even as the president renewed his calls for the central bank to do so.
“The president never once asked me to commit to any particular interest rate decision, period,” Warsh said during the hearing. “Nor would I ever agree to do so if he had … I will be an independent actor if confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve.”
Warsh’s comments came just hours after Trump, in an interview on CNBC, was asked if he would be disappointed if Warsh did not immediately cut rates and responded, “I would.”
The decision to abandon the investigation represents a rare pullback for a Department of Justice that over the last year has moved aggressively, albeit unsuccessfully, to prosecute public figures the president does not like.
Robert Hur, an lawyer for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, did not immediately respond on Friday to an email seeking comment.
Kevin Warsh, United States President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve, has addressed concerns about his independence pending his appointment to the bank amid fears that Trump could sway his decisions on monetary policy.
On Tuesday, Warsh — who served on the central bank’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 — faced waves of criticism during a confirmation hearing of the Senate Banking Committee where Democrats voiced concerns about the Fed’s independence should he be appointed to lead the organisation.
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Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the committee, questioned Warsh’s independence, alleging that he would be a “sock puppet” for Trump, concerns he pushed back against and addressed in his opening testimony.
“I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials — presidents, senators, or members of the House — state their views on interest rates,” Warsh said.
“Monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation’s interest . . . their decisions the product of analytic rigour, meaningful deliberation, and unclouded decision-making.”
Warsh, 56, also called for “regime change” at the US central bank, including a new approach for controlling inflation and a communications overhaul that may discourage his colleagues from saying too much about the direction of monetary policy.
Warsh blamed the central bank for an inflation surge after it slashed interest rates to nearly zero in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, a move that continues to hurt US households.
Concerned by the implications of artificial intelligence for jobs – expected to increase productivity – and prices, he said he would move quickly to see if new data tools could provide better insight on inflation, and would also discourage policymakers from saying too much about where interest rates might be heading.
“What the Fed needs are reforms to its frameworks and reforms to its communications,” the former Fed governor said. “Too many Fed officials opine about where interest rates should be … That is quite unhelpful.”
Warsh has also long been an advocate for shrinking the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet. In the Tuesday hearing, he said any such plans would take time and must be publicly discussed well in advance.
Jai Kedia, a research fellow at the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the libertarian Cato Institute, told Al Jazeera that there were many “encouraging” signs in Warsh’s candidacy.
“Warsh is presenting himself as a regime change candidate at a time when the Fed needs serious reform,” Kedia noted. “Particularly encouraging was his understanding of the negative effects of QE and his focus on reducing the balance sheet. He also correctly criticised mission creep and acknowledged that the Fed did better when it kept its focus on the dual mandate [of keeping inflation at 2 percent and increasing employment].”
Quantitative easing or QE is an unconventional monetary policy under which a central bank lowers interest rates, among other measures, to boost the economy, a step taken by central banks in several developed countries during the pandemic.
Warsh’s private investments, at well over $100m, are also under scrutiny. Among them are two holdings in the Juggernaut Fund LP, apparently part of his work advising for the Duquesne Family Office, the private investment firm of Stanley Druckenmiller.
Warsh’s nearly 70-page financial disclosure also showed that his other holdings include investments in Elon Musk’s SpaceX and the prediction trading platform Polymarket.
“I agreed to divest virtually all of my financial assets, the large majority of which will be divested” before taking office, Warsh said without giving any details.
Warsh noted that selling his holdings comes with challenges. He said that when that process is completed, he would have “virtually no financial assets” and “we’ll be sitting in something like cash”.
Warren, however, questioned him about the divestment plan. “Do we have any way to verify that, in fact, these sales will occur if we have no idea what’s in them?” she asked.
Political hurdles
The hearing quickly turned contentious, and the pace of Warsh’s confirmation process through the Senate remained in doubt.
He would not directly say that Trump lost the 2020 election – a statement of fact that Senator Warren said was a litmus test of Warsh’s independence from the Republican president who nominated him for the top Fed job.
Yet even amidst the focus on independence, Warsh needs 13 votes to clear the 24-member Senate Banking Committee.
North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis said he would vote against Trump’s nominee and join Democrats, which would create a 12–12 split. The committee has 13 Republican members and 11 Democrats.
Tillis said he would not vote for any Trump nominee until an investigation into current Fed Governor Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15, is either concluded or called off. Last month, federal prosecutors said they found no evidence of wrongdoing. But Jeanine Pirro, the US Attorney for the District of Columbia, has not indicated that the investigation will be dropped.
Tillis said on Tuesday that he would support Warsh’s nomination once the probe into Powell is dropped.
“Today’s confirmation hearing underscored that Warsh is aiming for independence with guardrails,” noted Selma Hepp, chief Economist of Cotality, a market analytics company. “He rejected being a political ‘sock puppet’ and argued the Fed protects its autonomy by ‘staying in its lane.’ He offered no pre-commitment on rates, while emphasising inflation discipline, a large balance sheet, and a desire for clearer Fed communication.”
Noel Dixon, senior macro strategist at State Street, said that with Warsh, the US would have a “dovish-leaning Fed”.
“When a senator asked him if he would lower rates to 1 percent – I guess Trump had indicated that he would like to have rates below 2 percent – Warsh didn’t really say no to that,” Dixon noted. “He didn’t say that it would increase prices. He kind of leaned on it and said there would be a lagged effect, and he was just very noncommittal to that. So it’s almost like – just reading between the lines – he’s giving himself space to maintain possible justification for rate cuts by the end of the year.”
On Tuesday, he said he would be “disappointed” if the Fed did not lower interest rates.
Tuesday’s remarks follow comments in December, when the US president said he would not appoint anyone to lead the central bank unless they agreed with him.
“The public needs to know whether Mr. Warsh will have the courage of his convictions or if he’s willing to compromise his independence and accommodate more Wall Street deregulation,” Graham Steele, an academic fellow at the Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University, told Al Jazeera in an email.
Warsh has praised the administration for its push for increased bank deregulation. In a November 2025 op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, Warsh claimed that Trump’s “deregulatory agenda” is “the most significant since President Ronald Reagan’s”.
In 2025, some of the world’s top investment banks demonstrated their leadership across diverse sectors, driving major deals that shaped global markets.
For 2025, some of the world’s most influential investment banks demonstrated their ability to adapt, innovate, and lead across diverse sectors. From major M&A to groundbreaking IPOs, these financial powerhouses have cemented their positions as industry leaders by executing high-profile deals that shaped global markets.
Financial Services
UBS
With a dedicated team of 150 specialists in the category, UBS delivered some of the year’s most closely watched finance deals. In the US, the Swiss powerhouse played a leading role in the $1.6 billion acquisition of Paramount Group by global alternative-asset manager Rithm Capital. In Europe, UBS served as financial adviser to Monte dei Paschi di Siena in connection with the voluntary public purchase and exchange offer for Mediobanca for over €16.5 billion (about $19 billion). UBS also advised financial services provider Baloise in its 17.8 billion Swiss franc (about $22 billion) merger of equals with Helvetia, one of the sector’s most important deals. UBS acted as an active bookrunner on the May IPO of Israel’s eToro retail trading platform, valued at $4.2 billion. The bank also acted as a joint bookrunner on Swedish fintech Klarna’s $1.4 billion IPO in September. —Thomas Monteiro
Healthcare
Rothschild & Co
With a specialized healthcare team of more than 100 advisory bankers in 20 offices globally, Rothschild secured several of the most complex and high-profile deals of 2025.
Balancing IPO and private-sale options, the London-based firm supported Sanofi’s disposal of French multinational pharmaceutical company Opella, valued at €16 billion. The bank also acted as joint lead adviser in the €10 billion sale of pharma company Stada Arzneimittel to investment firm CapVest—one of Europe’s largest leveraged buyouts of 2025. In Switzerland, Rothschild advised Swiss multinational medical-technology company Ypsomed on the carve-out and sale of its Diabetes Care division to TecMed for 420 million Swiss francs.
Beyond Europe, the bank supported healthcare deals in Asia and North America, including India’s landmark sale of a controlling stake in JB Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals to Torrent Pharmaceuticals for roughly $3 billion. —TM
Industrials/Chemicals
Barclays
2025 saw a surge in industrials and chemicals M&A activity, with major deals in the US and Europe reshaping the market. UK-based Barclays played a key advisory role, including on Berkshire Hathaway’s $9.7 billion acquisition of OxyChem, spun off from Occidental Petroleum..
Barclays also advised the buy side on the $13.4 billion acquisition of Nova Chemicals by a consortium led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and OMV, the year’s largest cross-border deal in the sector, which played a key role in strengthening global polyolefins production.
In industrial technology, Barclays advised CVC Capital Partners on its £2 billion ($2.5 billion) acquisition of Smiths Detection from Smiths Group, highlighting continued private-equity interest in high-tech industrial assets. —TM
Infrastructure Finance
Societe Generale
As global infrastructure investment accelerated in 2025, French giant Societe Generale played a central role in some of the year’s most significant infrastructure transactions. In the UK, Societe Generale acted as mandated lead arranger and bookrunner on £5.5 billion (about $7.3 billion) of financing for the Sizewell C nuclear power station, one of Europe’s most important new energy-infrastructure projects and a cornerstone of the country’s long-term energy-security strategy.
The bank was also a key arranger on nearly $1.1 billion in green financing for the Eastern Green Link 2 transmission project, a 505 km (about 314-mile) subsea electric cable connecting Scotland and England. The project will transport up to 2 GW of renewable electricity from coastal wind farms to southern demand centers, enough to power more than 2 million homes while strengthening the UK’s electricity grid. Digital infrastructure has also been an important pillar of Societe Generale’s franchise. The bank participated in €650 million financing for the development of a European hyperscale data-center platform backed by Iliad Group and InfraVia, to support the expansion of cloud computing and AI infrastructure. —TM
BMO Capital Markets
After reaching record highs in 2025, prices for base metals and critical minerals continue to be whipsawed as economic risks and uncertainty persist, with shifting tariffs and supply disruptions related to the conflict in Iran. Strong price appreciation contributed to increased capital-markets activity, with many companies opting to increase scale or sell noncore assets. BMO Capital Markets continues to help clients successfully navigate these complex markets with advisory mandates and capital-markets execution on the largest transactions.
Globally, BMO covered 21 transactions in 2025 valued at $38 billion. It is also the sector’s top bank in equity capital-markets underwriting. In one of the largest metals and mining transactions of the past 10 years, BMO advised the $50-billion merger of Teck Resources and Anglo American. With BMO’s dominant market position, it has cultivated many long-term relationships. One of these clients is Coeur Mining, which the firm advised on the acquisition of SilverCrest Metals with a total implied equity value of approximately $1.7 billion. BMO was also named adviser for Coeur Mining’s announced buy of New Gold, valued at about $7 billion. —David Sanders
Power/Energy
BTG Pactual
The global power and energy investment outlook remained robust in 2025, driven by rising infrastructure spending amid the rearranging of supply chains due to increased geopolitical tensions and continuously accelerating renewable energy transition projects. Against this backdrop, our best bank for the sector, Brazilian heavyweight BTG Pactual, took advantage of its region’s large-scale privatizations, transmission-asset sales, and growing private investment to notch a banner year.
Among the bank’s main deals of the year in the sector, BTG served as the exclusive financial adviser to Equatorial Energia on the 9.4 billion Brazilian-real (about $1.8 billion) sale of its electricity-transmission portfolio to Canada’s CDPQ, one of the year’s largest infrastructure transactions. BTG also advised Eletrobras on the 535 million-real sale of its stake in Eletronuclear to a subsidiary of J&F Investimentos, a strategic divestment aimed at streamlining the Brazilian utility’s portfolio. The firm was equally active in energy transition investments. BTG acted as exclusive financial adviser to Orizon on the 275 million-real sale of a minority stake to eB Capital, supporting expansion in the waste-to-energy sector. —TM
Real Estate Finance
DBS Bank
As one of the leading banks in the Asia-Pacific region, DBS has been recognized as a global leader in real estate finance. Southeast Asia’s largest bank notably issued 300 million Singapore dollars (about $235 million) in five-year noncallable green subordinate perpetual securities at 3.18%. This issuance is one of the largest corporate perpetual securities in Singapore dollars and has the lowest fixed rate in 2025. DBS also acted as one of the bookrunners/managers for the Hysan Development-related $750 million bond issuance.
Lastly, DBS issued multitranche 3.5 billion offshore yuan (about $508.5 million) senior unsecured green notes due in 2028, 2030, and 2035. This was the first 10-year offshore yuan public bond. —Lyndsey Zhang
Sports Finance
Guggenheim Securities
In 2025, Guggenheim was a key player in sports finance, advising on major franchise transactions and strategic deals. The firm facilitated CEO Mark Walter’s historic $10 billion acquisition of the Los Angeles Lakers; it was the highest valuation ever for a professional sports team.. Guggenheim also advised Major League Baseball on a $9 billion debt-restructuring deal with Main Street Sports Group (formerly Diamond Sports Group), helping it emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The firm played a key role in Liberty Media’s €4.2 billion acquisition of Dorna Sports and published research suggesting the NFL’s media rights are undervalued. Additionally, Guggenheim developed structured credit solutions for sports teams, allowing them to leverage non-game day revenue streams.
UBS
In 2025, UBS played a central role in the tech dealmaking rebound, benefiting from increased capital inflows. The bank served as exclusive financial adviser to Veeco Instruments on its $4.4 billion merger with Axcelis Technologies, combining semiconductor equipment suppliers to meet growing demand in AI and data centers. UBS also led Fermi America’s $13.8 billion dual-listing IPO on the London Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, marking the first such dual listing in over a century. In Europe, UBS was a joint bookrunner for the Swiss Marketplace Group’s €901.6 million IPO, one of the continent’s largest digital platform listings.
These standout investment banks exemplify the dynamism and growing global relevance of Africa’s financial ecosystem.
Africa’s investment banking landscape in 2026 reflects a market that is both maturing and expanding, with institutions deepening their regional reach while navigating uneven economic conditions.
From robust M&A pipelines to a resurgence in equities activity and gradual development in debt markets, leading banks are demonstrating resilience and adaptability across the continent. This year’s winners for the region — Rand Merchant Bank, Standard Chartered, Chapel Hill Denham, and Absa Bank — are setting the pace, executing landmark transactions while strengthening cross-border capabilities.
Their performance underscores a broader shift toward more sophisticated capital markets, even as structural challenges persist.
Best Investment Bank
Rand Merchant Bank
In 2025, Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) posted $939.2 million in normalized profits before tax and a 20.7% return on equity. In South Africa, the firm commanded a 16% market share in M&A, with 24 deals valued at $4.6 billion. Among the bank’s landmark deals was advising Aspen Pharmacare on the disposal of its Asia-Pacific assets (excluding China) to Australia’s BGH Capital for nearly 2.4 billion Australian dollars (about US$1.6 billion). Markets outside South Africa accounted for 21% of profits. In Tanzania, RMB arranged a $300 million syndicated loan to finance infrastructure projects. Meanwhile in Ghana, a $500 million financing package for Asante Gold to scale production.
M&A
Standard Chartered
In recent years, Standard Chartered has been reorganizing its business in Africa. The objective is to focus on higher-growth markets and the bank’s core competence in corporate and investment banking. By taking this route, the bank aims to ensure it remains a leader in Africa’s dealmaking, particularly in M&A. Over the past 15 years, Standard Chartered has built a long track record of advising on cross-border deals across various sectors such as oil and gas, chemicals, metals and mining, health care, and financial services. Over that period, the bank has advised on transactions with a combined value of over $50 billion, deploying expertise in buy-side/sell-side, capital raise, valuation, fairness opinion, and defense advisory, and others.
The trend was maintained last year with landmark deals. Among them was advising West China Cement on the acquisition of Heidelberg Materials’ operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a deal worth $120 million and the bank’s third cement transaction in Africa in 18 months. Standard Chartered also advised Norwegian state-owned fund Norfund in its $86 million equity investment, shared with pension fund KLP, in Anthem, a new renewable-energy firm based in South Africa.
Equities
Chapel Hill Denham
The Nigerian equities market is experiencing an unprecedented surge in activity, putting it ahead of the pack in Africa. A key factor is the comeback by foreign investors, encouraged by stabilizing macroeconomic conditions, specifically foreign exchange reforms. Last year, foreign transactions at the Nigerian Exchange surged by 211% to more than 2.6 trillion Nigerian naira (over $1.8 billion), up from 852 billion naira in 2024. Chapel Hill Denham remains a key intermediary in orchestrating market activity as the issuing house for the most significant transactions. Riding on Chapel Hill’s deep sector expertise and strong investor engagement, the firm was involved in $553.4 million in deals in 2025.
The firm not only remained the preferred partner for banks pursuing recapitalization ahead of the March 31, 2026, central bank deadline for banks to meet new capital requirements of 500 billion naira but also cemented its position in Nigeria’s real estate investment trust market. Among Chapel Hill’s major transactions was that of GTBank’s holding company, GTCO, which raised $105.5 million in an offering and then listed shares on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The transaction was fundamental, being the first listing on the LSE by a Nigerian lender.
Debt
Absa
Africa’s corporate debt markets remain underdeveloped. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, just four economies account for 61% of outstanding corporate debt, largely concentrated among a handful of issuers with access to long-term funding. Issuance is heavily reliant on foreign investors and mostly dollar denominated, while corporate debt sits below 15% of GDP in most countries—far behind the 52% global average.
Despite this reality, Absa Bank has been at the forefront of changing the narrative. With on-the-ground coverage across 15 markets, the bank is an active player in helping companies raise capital even when markets are volatile. Last year, following President Trump’s tariffs, Absa facilitated Ecobank Transnational Inc. (ETI) in tapping international markets with a $125 million eurobond. The transaction was instrumental on many fronts. These included enabling ETI to refinance upcoming debt maturities. Absa also oversaw the execution of a $500 million bond for Bidvest Group.
This year’s top firms in Asia-Pacific underscore the region’s growing influence in shaping global investment banking trends.
The investment banking landscape across Asia-Pacific is defined by scale, sophistication, and intensifying competition across capital markets.
These regional leaders, like their global counterparts, are capitalizing on strong deal flow, particularly in M&A and equities, while expanding capabilities in debt financing and advisory.
Our top institutions — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, DBS Bank, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan — are setting the benchmark, executing landmark transactions and reinforcing their regional dominance.
Their performance reflects a broader resurgence in Asia-Pacific capital markets, driven by robust IPO activity, cross-border consolidation, and evolving financing strategies.
Best Investment Bank
ICBC
The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) recorded operating income of 835.4 billion yuan (about $121 billion) last year, and net profit of 368.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2% and 1%, respectively.
The Beijing-based firm led China’s market in merger financing, bond underwriting, and restructuring advisory. M&A loans exceeded 102.2 billion yuan, while bond underwriting reached over 1.7 trillion yuan, boasting nearly 10% market share. ICBC also led the industry in market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps. In securities underwriting, ICBC demonstrated strong pricing power and post-listing performance, completing over 230 Hong Kong IPOs with a cumulative underwriting volume of nearly $210 billion.
M&A
DBS Bank
In 2025, DBS continued its legacy as a one-bank composite solution, leading domestic and cross-border M&A deals in the Asia-Pacific region. The most notable deal was the joint work of DBS Strategic Advisory HK and DBS Securities in China, providing strategic advice and execution to Haitong Securities in its merger with Guotai Junan Securities (GTJA), completing the country’s largest-ever brokerage deal.
DBS also advised Singaporean companies transforming into the new economy through M&A, including Keppel’s divestment of subsidiary M1 to Simba Telecom for an enterprise value of 1.43 billion Singapore dollars (about US$1.1 billion), showcasing the bank’s deep sector expertise.
In addition, DBS’ long-standing relationship with state-owned energy and urban development company Sembcorp supported multiple corporate and investment banking solutions. With DBS’ advisory, this major electricity supplier in Singapore successfully transitioned away from fossil fuels and invested in green energy.
Equities
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley was also 2025’s top arranger of equity capital markets deals in the Asia-Pacific region for the second consecutive year, holding a market share of nearly 10%, well ahead of rival Goldman Sachs. The New York-based investment bank facilitated $27.9 billion in IPOs, primary placements, block trades, and convertible bonds—almost $9 billion more than Goldman Sachs, according to Bloomberg data. Its 10% market share marks the second-highest for a top-placed bank in the past decade. The bank worked on several multibillion-dollar Asian deals as share sales surged in Hong Kong and India, which notched a record year for IPOs.
Four of the year’s five largest share-sale venues are in Asia—Hong Kong, India, mainland China, and Japan. Despite missing Asia’s two largest deals earlier in the year and trailing Goldman in the first half, Morgan Stanley regained the lead in early July with a $3.4 billion block trade in insurer AIA Group Ltd. It was also the sole arranger on Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China Ltd.’s HK$11.8 billion ($1.5 billion) convertible bond in June, boosting its league-table position. A rebound in health-care share sales in Hong Kong after a three-year slump further benefited Morgan Stanley, giving it a 37% market share in the sector and leading numerous offerings on a sole basis, including those involving WuXi XDC Cayman Inc.
Debt
J.P. Morgan
J.P. Morgan demonstrated its position as a market leader in the Asia-Pacific debt capital market by becoming the top fee earner in the region, supported by leadership in capital market transactions, including debt issuance. The firm also demonstrated a long-term leadership strategy, expanding its private credit and debt financing business while specifically targeting midsize companies. The large commitment to direct lending strengthens the bank’s position as a top debt-investment bank in the region. J.P. Morgan was also recognized by Coalition Greenwich as a quality leader in Asia for its cash management services, receiving multiple Greenwich excellence awards.
Latin America’s investment banking giants of 2025, driving record M&A deals, booming equity offerings, and landmark debt transactions.
Despite the region’s ongoing challenges, Latin America remains attractive to foreign investment, especially in sectors such as renewable energy, technology, and infrastructure.
Foreign investment flows are often spurred by economic reforms, privatization efforts, and regulatory improvements.
BTG Pactual reaffirmed its position as the region’s top bank, while Itaú BBA capitalized on the rebound in equities, capturing a commanding market share and leading notable IPOs. And Bradesco BBI excelled in debt issuance, coordinating major corporate debentures and sovereign bonds, while maintaining strong cross-border market engagement.
The following list highlights the firms at the forefront of Latin America’s investment banking sector, shaping the region’s financial future.
Best Investment Bank
BTG Pactual
The leading Latin American investment bank, BTG Pactual ranked first in M&A with $15 billion in deal volume and led in ECM with $2 billion in deals. In DCM, the Brazilian bank issued more than $159 billion in 2025 alone. Among these transactions was the $2.6 billion merger between BRF (formerly Brasil Foods) and Marfrig, the biggest in the region for the year. On the equities side, the bank acted as lead left coordinator on the 10.5 billion Brazilian real (about $2 billion) capital raise for Cosan, a Brazilian sugar and ethanol producer with operations in energy, oil and gas, agribusiness, and logistics.
M&A
BTG Pactual
It was a year in which industry-specific consolidation trends met still-elevated interest rates in Latin America, and M&A belonged to those who could structure complex deals with top-level execution. Such was the case for BTG Pactual, the No. 1 M&A advisory house in Latin America for yet another year. With more than $15 billion in deal volume in 2025 alone, the Brazilian powerhouse continued to lead in both volume and number of deals.
Among BTG Pactual’s key deals was the roughly $4 billion combination of BRF and Marfrig, a landmark transaction in Brazil’s food sector. BTG was also the financial adviser to Paper Excellence on the sale of its minority stake in pulp-producer Eldorado Brasil Celulose to J&F Investimentos for 15 billion reais (about $2.8 billion). Beyond BTG’s home turf, it played a key part in the take-private of Brazilian-based Serena Energia, valued at roughly $2.8 billion, by Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC and General Atlantic, where the bank served as the exclusive financial adviser to Serena. The bank also acted as the exclusive financial adviser to Equatorial Energia in the sale of its power-transmission portfolio to Canada’s CDPQ for 9.4 billion-reais.
Equities
Itaú BBA
Through a combination of innovation and robust market positioning, Brazilian Itaú BBA took advantage of the rebound in Latin American
to close the year with a commanding 24% market share in the region’s ECM deals—56% of the share in the bank’s home market. As follow-ons dominated market growth on the back of improving risk sentiment among corporates and persistently elevated interest rates, the bank managed to structure some of the year’s most important deals. Among these deals was the landmark $196 million Aura Minerals IPO, which provided the Florida-based company with the capital structure to deepen its presence in Brazil. Itaú led the 1.2 billion real (about $226 million) Caixa Seguridade secondary offering, allowing the state-backed bank to improve its classification under the Brazilian regulatory framework. Itaú played a role in structuring the roughly $190 million C&A Brasil transaction, in which controlling shareholders sold a 21% stake through a block trade.
Debt
Bradesco BBI
With a mix of domestic and cross-border issuances, Brazil’s Bradesco BBI rode the persistent high-interest-rate environment in the region, which prompted corporates to gravitate toward fixed-income instruments with excellent performance. In the domestic market, the bank acted as lead bookrunner on Vale’s local debenture issuance, serving as a key coordinator in distributing one of the largest capital raisings in Brazil during the year. Bradesco also led the Ecovias Rio Minas debenture, cited as one of the largest corporate debenture transactions of 2025. In structured credit, Bradesco BBI participated in the CloudWalk FIDC, one of the most significant FIDC offerings of the year, and acted as bookrunner on a 3.1 billion Brazilian real (about $591 million) FIDC issuance in April 2025. Internationally, the bank played a central role in benchmark cross-border bond offerings. Bradesco acted as a bookrunner on Brazil’s new 10-year, 2035, dollar-denominated sovereign benchmark bond, raising $2.5 billion, a significant transaction.
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3 to 3.1 percent, citing the impact of the United States-Israeli war on Iran and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz on the world economy.
The war has damaged energy infrastructure across the Gulf, while critical exports like oil, gas, chemicals and fertiliser remain largely stranded by Iran’s shutdown of the strait and the subsequent US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
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In the worst-case scenario of a prolonged war, the IMF said global growth could fall to 2.5 percent in 2026, with low-income and developing economies hit the hardest by soaring commodity and energy prices. The global shipping and logistics industry is facing a separate crisis.
But every economic crisis also has beneficiaries: despite the dire macroeconomic outlook, some corners of the global economy are thriving on the uncertainty.
Here’s a look at five industries that are doing well either despite – or because of – the darkening economic outlook.
Wall Street investment banks
Global investors have been on a rollercoaster since the start of US President Donald Trump’s second term last year. The president’s erratic decision-making, where he often issues an ultimatum one day and then changes it the next, has led traders to coin the term “TACO trade”, where TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out”.
The recent volatility has made some investors anxious, but it’s been a boon to investment banks, which make millions in commissions and revenue from the surging volume of trade, according to Sean Dunlap, a director of equity research at Morningstar Research Services.
“Clients want to reposition, so they trade frequently,” he told Al Jazeera. “Spreads tend to increase, which increases the profitability for trade intermediaries like banks.”
First-quarter results for 2026 – released this week – showed that Morgan Stanley reported a profit of $5.57bn, up 29 percent year on year, while Goldman Sachs reported a profit of $5.63bn, up 19 percent year on year.
JP Morgan Chase also reported major gains, with first-quarter earnings of $16.49bn, up 13 percent year on year. The banks all cited high levels of trading, deal-making, and “robust client engagement” as the reasons behind surging profits.
The boomtime for banks could reverse course, however, if volatility persists for too long, Dunlap warned, because investors may become increasingly cautious and less willing to borrow money to make trades.
Prediction markets
As mainstream Wall Street banks reap profits, the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket has been earning upwards of $1m a day since the start of the month by letting users make peer-to-peer bets on everything from sports tournaments to elections.
Polymarket has been doing well since the start of the war, but it revised its fee structure on March 30 to cash in even more on its popularity.
Rival platforms like Kalshi, Novig and Robinhood also follow the same business model, but Polymarket has been the standout winner of 2026 because it controversially allows users to bet on the outcome of conflicts like the Iran war.
Polymarket revised its fee structure on March 30 to cash in on its popularity. The change has already netted the platform more than $21m in fees since April 1, up from $11.6m for all of March and $6.23m for all of February, according to DefiLlama, a website that provides data analysis for decentralised finance platforms.
If the current trend continues, Polymarket could make $342m in fees this year alone, according to DefiLlama’s analysis.
Anonymous users have also made millions correctly predicting the dates of major events like the US-Iran ceasefire, but the outcomes for rank-and-file users are typically less impressive.
Researchers found that the top 1 percent of Polymarket users captured 84 percent of all trading gains, according to a new report released this month analysing 70 million trades from 2022 to 2025. The returns are so high that US federal regulators have pledged to crack down on insider trading in prediction markets following suspiciously well-timed bets on Iran war outcomes.
Aerospace and defence
Unsurprisingly, the aerospace and defence industries are booming this year due to major conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, Sudan, Gaza and Lebanon and a surge in global defence spending.
About half of the world’s countries have increased their military budgets over the past five years, according to an April report from the IMF, which means they are also buying everything from drones to missiles — more than ever before. Demand is growing particularly fast in Europe, where NATO countries have committed to raising defence spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035.
The defence industry has, in turn, seen major gains on the stock market. The MSCI World Aerospace and Defence Index – which tracks aerospace and defence stocks across 23 global markets – reported net returns of 32 percent year on year at the end of March.
The defence index outpaced the MSCI World Index, which tracks 1,300 large and mid-cap companies across the same 23 markets. The index, which gives a broader overview of global stock markets, reported net returns of 18.9 percent over the same period.
Artificial intelligence
Last year, the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) office predicted that the AI industry would grow from $189bn in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033, and the Iran war does not seem to have dented the outlook.
“Despite the shocks from the Iran war, we’re still seeing resilience in a lot of sectors like artificial intelligence and renewable energy,” said Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
One metric for the AI boom has been the high volume of semiconductor chips still being exported out of East Asia, he said. At the top of the chart is chipmaking powerhouse Taiwan, which reported record-breaking merchandise exports of $80.2bn in March, up 61.8 percent year on year, according to EIU analysis.
The surge was led by exports to the US, which grew by 124 percent year on year, the EIU said.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s top chipmaker better known by its acronym “TSMC,” on Thursday posted a net income of 572.8 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) ($18.1bn) for the first three months of 2026 – up 58 percent year on year in NTD.
Another metric, initial public offerings or “IPOs,” also shows that the industry is confident for the moment, with industry leaders Anthropic and OpenAI both planning to go public this year.
Renewable energy
The Iran war has highlighted the need to transition from fossil fuels not only for environmental reasons, but also for reasons of energy security. The war marks the third major energy shock this decade, following the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Iran war has “boosted” renewable energy “given the urgency to switch away from fossil fuels and diversify towards renewable sources,” Marro of the EIU said.
Even before the Iran war began, the International Energy Agency reported that global governments were already taking active measures to invest in renewable energy for geopolitical reasons.
According to an IEA report released this month, “150 countries have active policies to advance renewable and nuclear deployment, 130 have energy efficiency and electrification policies, and 32 have policies to incentivise supply chain resilience and diversification across critical minerals and clean energy technologies.”
The Iran war has triggered another flurry of policymaking in Asia, which typically buys 80 to 90 percent of the oil and gas that transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the shutdown, the region has been struggling to find alternative sources of energy, forcing governments to deploy emergency measures like fuel rationing and price caps.
South Korea, Thailand, India, Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines have all announced a variety of measures from tax breaks for at-home solar panels to commissioning new renewable energy projects – and even restarting nuclear reactors.
The surge in policymaking has been good for the renewable industry. The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index, which tracks 100 companies that produce solar, wind, hydro, biomass and other renewable energy across emerging and developed markets, is up 70.92 percent year on year.
WASHINGTON — If the U.S. and Iran aren’t able to soon come to a deal to end the war or extend the ceasefire that expires next week, the Trump administration is setting the stage to shift its war campaign toward a more economic-focused effort aimed at choking Tehran into submission rather than relying on bombs alone.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters at a White House briefing Wednesday that the U.S. plans to ramp up economic pain on Iran, and said the new moves will be the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign.
The threat of secondary economic sanctions on countries doing business with people, firms, and ships under Iranian control — including allies like the United Arab Emirates and competitors like China — represents an escalation of sanctions that the U.S. is already employing.
Bessent said the administration has “told companies, we have told countries that if you are buying Iranian oil, that if Iranian money is sitting in your banks, we are now willing to apply secondary sanctions, which is a very stern measure. And the Iranians should know that this is going to be the financial equivalent of what we saw in the kinetic activities.”
Treasury Department warns China, Hong Kong, the UAE and Oman
The warning comes the day after the Treasury Department sent a letter to financial institutions in China, Hong Kong, the UAE, and Oman, threatening to levy secondary sanctions for doing business with Iran, and accusing those countries of allowing Iranian illicit activities to flow through their financial institutions.
It’s part of an economic playbook that President Trump still can use to pressure Iran to accept U.S. proposals to limit its nuclear ambitions, a person familiar with the administration’s thinking told the Associated Press. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss private discussions on the record.
Privately, the argument being made to Trump is that the Iranians think they can weather the storm — but if they cannot pay their loyalists, that could pressure Iran to the table.
And some in the administration believe there are still more economic targets that can be hit that would put the economic hurt on Iran, including bonyads, the charitable trusts that account for a significant percentage of the Iranian economy.
Bessent told reporters that two Chinese banks have received warnings about handling Iranian money. Trump is preparing to visit Beijing next month for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Bessent also said that Iran’s Gulf neighbors are now willing to look at freezing Iranian money in their banks because of Iran’s aggression during the war.
Daniel Pickard, a sanctions attorney, said imposing secondary sanctions could result in “diplomatic and economic blowback” from allies that could hurt efforts to build coalitions against Tehran.
“A lot of our trading partners have been outspoken in regard to their opposition to the conflict in Iran,” Pickard said. “Most economic sanctions professionals would agree that when you get more people on the team, the chances of your economic sanctions being effective are greater.”
On Wednesday, the U.S. imposed sanctions on an oil smuggling network connected to the deceased senior Iranian security official Ali Shamkhani, who was a close advisor to the former Supreme Leader of Iran. Sanctions include dozens of individuals, companies, and vessels involved in secretly transporting and selling Iranian and Russian oil through front companies, many of which are in the UAE.
“Treasury will continue to cut off Iran’s illicit smuggling and terror proxy networks,” Bessent said in a statement. “Financial institutions should be on notice that Treasury will leverage all tools and authorities, including secondary sanctions, against those that continue to support Tehran’s terrorist activities.
The administration believes the momentum has shifted
Trump administration officials have also signaled growing confidence that the ceasefire and a blockade of shipments from Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz have shifted momentum in Trump’s favor.
Iran has endured tens of billions of dollars in damage during the bombardment to the country’s infrastructure — including setbacks to its oil industry, the heart of its fragile and long-isolated economy — that could take years to repair.
Vice President JD Vance on Tuesday said Trump “doesn’t want to make, like, a small deal. He wants to make the grand bargain.”
“That’s the trade that he’s offering,” Vance said. “If you guys commit to not having a nuclear weapon, we are going to make Iran thrive.”
The president’s deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller, offered a more caustic assessment of the moment, suggesting that Trump had “played the checkmate move” on Iran by implementing the blockage in the strait.
“If Iran chooses the path of a deal that’s great for the world, that’s great for everybody. If Iran chooses the path of economic strangulation by blockade, then the world will pass Iran by,” Miller said in a Fox News appearance Tuesday evening. “New energy routes will be established. New supply chains will be established. Other nations throughout the region — throughout the world, and especially America — will power the world and Iran will become a footnote.”
Some Republicans are skeptical that more sanctions will work
Some Republicans believe that any tactic to exert more pressure on Tehran is worth trying.
“I would support anything,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). “If the administration came up with the ideas, I would support all of the above. More pressure, the better.”
Others were skeptical, noting that Tehran was already facing a litany of economic penalties that had little impact on its behavior.
“I’m not sure if it’s sanctions that’ll do it. I think we’re putting some pretty heavy sanctions on right now,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), a member of the Banking and Armed Services Committees. “I personally am just not optimistic that we actually can fix this thing without a regime change.”
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a think tank that has been critical of Trump’s decision to launch the war, says that Trump had been “politically cornered and strategically constrained” before he announced the ceasefire. But now, Parsi argues, Trump may have altered the difficult dynamic and created a situation where “Iran now appears to need an agreement more than the United States does.”
“The window now open offers Tehran a chance to convert battlefield leverage into lasting strategic gain,” Parsi wrote in a new analysis. “To let it close would mean forfeiting not just incremental progress, but the possibility of reshaping its economic and geopolitical position. By contrast, the United States, having already secured a tenuous exit ramp through the ceasefire, has less at stake in the short term.”
Hussein, Madhani, Weissert and Kim write for the Associated Press.
Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir — The gold earrings were a gift from her father on her birthday just months earlier. But on March 21, as South Asia marked Eid‑ul‑Fitr, Masrat Mukhtar handed them over to an aid collection effort to help civilians in Iran trying to survive the US-Israel war on the country.
She was one of many in Indian-administered Kashmir who paused their customary rituals and celebrations on the auspicious day to contribute cash, household items, and personal assets for a people more than 1,000 miles away.
Her cousins followed, each bringing items of personal value. Families offered copper utensils, livestock, bicycles, and portions of savings. Children broke their piggy banks, sharing savings they had carefully collected over several years. Shopkeepers and traders handed over parts of their earnings.
“We give what we love. This brings us closer to them,” said Mukhtar, a 55-year-old woman from Budgam in the central part of Indian-administered Kashmir, before referring to a name by which the region has historically also been known. “This is what Little Iran does for its namesake. The bond persists through time and conflict.”
That bond, rooted in more than six centuries of historical connections, has taken on a much more overt presence during the war – drawing recognition from Iranian authorities, and concerns over some fund collection methods from Indian officials.
Cash donated for Iran at a collection drive in Indian-administered Kashmir [Junaid Bhat/Al Jazeera]
One daughter’s wealth, to another daughter
In Zadibal, a Shia-majority area of Srinagar – the biggest city in Indian-administered Kashmir – 73-year-old Tahera Jan watched neighbours contribute copper pots.
“Kashmiris traditionally collect these utensils for their daughters’ weddings. We chose to give them instead to daughters who lost mothers and sisters in the attacks,” Jan said.
Sadakat Ali Mir, a 24-year-old mini-truck driver, contributed one of the two vehicles he drives for his livelihood. Other contributors offered bicycles, scooters, and other essential items. Children, including nine-year-old Zainab Jan, handed over piggy banks.
To be sure, that Shia constitute between 10 to 15 percent of Indian-administered Kashmir’s population is a factor in why the war in Iran resonates so deeply in the region. But donations for Iran have extended well beyond Shia. Several Sunni families observed simpler Eid meals, redirecting household resources towards Iranian relief. Some shopkeepers closed early, while families adjusted daily routines to contribute.
Political and religious figures also participated. Budgam lawmaker Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi donated a month’s salary to the relief effort. Imran Reza Ansari, a Shia scholar and leader of the People’s Conference party, noted public participation across communities.
Similar donation campaigns in support of Iranians have also been reported from Pakistan, Iraq and other countries.
But at the heart of this outpouring of support for Iran in Indian-administered Kashmir – which also witnessed large rallies after the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 – are rare cultural ties that Kashmir and what was then Persia have shared for centuries.
Women arrive carrying kitchenware to donate at a relief drive for Iran in Budgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, Monday, March 23, 2026 [Mukhtar Khan/ AP Photo]
‘Little Iran’
Sufi scholar Mir Sayyid Ali Hamadani arrived in Kashmir from Hamadan in Iran in the 14th century, introducing religious practices, art forms, and Persian literary traditions. Persian architectural influences appear in historical mosques, and the Persian language has shaped local literature.
Irshad Ahmad, a scholar of Central Asian studies, said donation drives drew on this historical reservoir, with prayers, rituals, and art forms reflecting longstanding ties. Kashmir has historically been referred to as Iran-e-Sagheer, or Little Iran.
The donations carry personal and cultural meaning beyond financial value, said experts. “People are not only parting with objects; they are sharing emotional continuity,” Sakina Hassan, a lecturer on humanitarian practices in New Delhi, said.
More than 2,000 people have been killed in Iran during the war, which is on pause at the moment amid a fragile ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. The first round of direct talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad last week broke down without a deal, and mediators are working on pushing the two sides towards new talks. The ceasefire is set to expire next Wednesday.
A volunteer auctions a donated copper vessel to raise cash for a relief drive for Iran in Budgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, Monday, March 23, 2026 [Mukhtar Khan/AP Photo]
Millions in donations
The scope of donations from Kashmir is significant. Estimates from local authorities place the value of contributions at up to six billion rupees ($64m), including cash, gold, jewellery, household items, livestock, and vehicles.
Collection points in Srinagar, Budgam, Baramulla – another major city – and the region’s northern districts were staffed by volunteers documenting donations.
Small contributions, including coins, piggy banks, and utensils, make up a large portion of total aid in terms of volume. Syed Asifi, a volunteer managing central Srinagar collections, said even individuals with limited means brought what they could.
Medical kits were assembled by local doctors, and supply drives were organised by students and educational institutions based on assessed needs in Iran.
The Iranian embassy in New Delhi acknowledged contributions in a post on X: “We sincerely thank the kind people of Kashmir for standing with the people of Iran through their humanitarian support and heartfelt solidarity; this kindness endures.” A video shared by the embassy showed a widow donating gold she had kept as a memento of her husband, who died 28 years ago.
That post was subsequently pulled down by the embassy, though the mission later posted again, thanking the people of India and Kashmir.
The embassy added that Kashmir’s contributions constitute a substantial portion of donations from India, with local sources estimating the Valley’s share at more than 40 percent of the total.
Jewellery donated by women for an Iran aid drive in Indian-administered Kashmir [Junaid Bhat/Al Jazeera]
Security concerns
But while the majority of donations are directed towards humanitarian purposes, Indian authorities have raised concerns about potential misuse. Jammu and Kashmir Police and the State Investigative Agency (SIA) have said some funds collected through door-to-door drives by unverified individuals could be diverted to local networks of separatists and armed groups.
“People depositing money directly to the Iranian embassy should not be worried,” said a senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Collections by middlemen without transparent monitoring may not reach the intended recipients.”
Authorities have also asked volunteers to maintain records to ensure compliance with fundraising regulations.
There’s a reason for this concern, say Indian authorities.
They point to the example of 2023, where funds collected in southern Kashmir – ostensibly for humanitarian purposes – were allegedly instead funnelled towards rebel groups. Organisers of the Kashmir drives for Iran maintain that all efforts are humanitarian.