SEOUL, Dec. 16 (UPI) — The likelihood of a renewed summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has increased, even as Pyongyang presses ahead with nuclear weapons development, a South Korean think tank said Tuesday.
In an annual forecast released by the Foreign Ministry-linked Korea National Diplomatic Academy, analysts said Trump is expected to continue a top-down approach to North Korea under which leader-level talks could resume.
“The likelihood of a North Korea-U.S. summit has increased somewhat due to common ground in the two leaders’ desire to hold a summit, pursue peaceful coexistence and lower the priority of the denuclearization issue,” the report said.
Trump met Kim three times during his first term — in Singapore in 2018, in Hanoi in 2019 and briefly at the Demilitarized Zone later that year — but talks collapsed amid disagreements over sanctions relief and steps toward denuclearization.
Since returning to office, Trump has floated another summit with Kim on numerous occasions, telling reporters in October he “would love” to meet the North Korean leader during a visit to South Korea.
Kim has also signaled a willingness to resume diplomacy with Washington, saying he has “fond memories” of Trump, while warning that any discussion of giving up his regime’s nuclear arsenal would be off the table.
Despite the prospect of renewed diplomacy, the KNDA report said engagement with Washington is unlikely to slow Pyongyang’s military buildup.
North Korea is expected to “accelerate the production of nuclear materials and the development and deployment of new missile systems” in 2026 as it works to operationalize a broader range of nuclear strike capabilities, the report said.
The academy added that a seventh nuclear test remains a “military and technological necessity,” although Pyongyang is likely to exercise restraint as it weighs the impact on its relations with China and the United States.
North Korea last conducted a nuclear test in September 2017 at its Punggye-ri site. During a period of detente with Seoul and Washington the following year, Pyongyang demolished the entrances to two test tunnels in a highly publicized move.
Those steps have since been reversed, however. The U.N. nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency said North Korea began restoring tunnels at the site in 2022, and a 2025 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment concluded the country is now “postured to conduct a seventh nuclear test at a time of its choosing.”
Prospects for inter-Korean relations remain dim, the report said, despite efforts by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung to rehabilitate ties since taking office in June
Communication between Seoul and Pyongyang is unlikely to resume as the North continues to promote its “hostile two-state doctrine,” which defines the two Koreas as permanently separate adversaries.
“The likelihood of inter-Korean dialogue reopening is not high,” the report said.