rises

As renewed fighting spreads across northern Ethiopia, the government has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing armed opposition groups, raising fears that the conflict could draw in regional powers.

Over the weekend, Ethiopian army chief Birhanu Jula attributed his country’s unrest to those he called Ethiopia’s “historical and contemporary adversaries”.

Birhanu accused Eritrea of being the go-between linking these external powers – including Sudan and Egypt, which he explicitly named – with armed groups inside Ethiopia.

Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt have all rejected the accusations. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nader Zaki said that Egypt’s foreign policy was founded on “full respect for the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of states, and noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries”.

Zaki added that Egypt “is fully committed to the rules of international law and the Charter of the United Nations, and rejects any practices that would undermine regional security and stability”.

Major-General Samir Farag, the former head of the Egyptian Armed Forces’ Morale Affairs Department, also told Al Jazeera that the accusations against Egypt were false. “It has not been Egypt’s policy to interfere in the internal affairs of any state in the region,” he said.

Sudan’s military also dismissed the accusations as “baseless” and levelled its own charge of destabilising behaviour at Ethiopia, accusing it of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has been fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces since 2023. Ethiopia has denied those allegations.

Troubled relations

Ethiopia’s relations with the countries it has accused have already been strained by other disputes that predate the latest fighting.

Relations between Cairo and Addis Ababa have remained tense as a longstanding dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remains unresolved. Competition between the two has increasingly extended to regional security, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

Sudan’s relations with Ethiopia are similarly troubled. Since the outbreak of the Sudanese civil war, Khartoum has accused Addis Ababa of providing training, supplies and the use of Ethiopian territory to the RSF.

Eritrea had fought alongside Ethiopia against rebel groups in the latter’s Tigray region during a war between 2020 and 2022, but relations between the two neighbours have since soured, with Eritrea alarmed by Ethiopia’s attempts to gain access to the Red Sea.

Against that background, some analysts and Ethiopian opposition figures say that Addis Ababa is pointing the finger at foreign conspiracies in a bid to rally support behind its national army.

Mohamed Selim, deputy chair of the Egyptian parliament’s African Affairs Committee, told Al Jazeera that he believes the accusations were an attempt to shift attention from Ethiopia’s domestic problems by creating an external enemy and seeking to unify the internal front.

Amani al-Tawil, director of the Africa Programme at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, similarly described the accusations as “an understandable attempt to escape from internal crises”.

She questioned why Egypt would choose this moment to intervene militarily in Ethiopia, given the two have been in dispute over GERD since 2011.

Al-Tawil said the breadth of the new opposition alliance in Ethiopia – seven groups representing disparate ethnic groups and regions announced the coalition last week – presented a challenge to Addis Ababa.

Spillover concerns

The renewed fighting in Ethiopia has spread across Tigray and into neighbouring Amhara and Afar.

Mohammed Hussein, the chairman of the Prosperity Party Afar Region Branch Office – the ruling party in Ethiopia’s Afar region – told Al Jazeera that the three regions together have a population of more than 38 million, according to his estimate, and include areas near the borders with Djibouti and Eritrea, raising fears of a regional war.

Ammar Arki, a writer focusing on Horn of Africa affairs, told Al Jazeera that Ethiopia had, at various stages, blamed Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea for contributing to instability inside Ethiopia.

He said the latest accusations could be interpreted as an attempt to redirect some domestic attention towards an external threat and build support around the federal government.

But Arki warned that the longer Addis Ababa continued to explain its internal crisis in terms of an “external conspiracy”, particularly if neighbouring states responded in the same way, the greater the risk that Ethiopia’s conflict could move beyond Ethiopia’s borders and become regional.

50,000 frontline staff to receive a jab for a different Ebola strain, with 20,000 enrolled in a one-year clinical trial.

Health workers in parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have begun to receive a vaccine that many hope will provide a level of protection against the Ebola virus.

The vaccine rollout started on Saturday in Bunia, the capital of Ituri province in the northeastern DRC. Ituri is the epicentre of the fastest-growing outbreak of Ebola in history.

The provincial governor, Major-General Gaby Kasongo Mulumba, said health workers there “are particularly exposed and deeply involved in the response”.

The operation, backed by the World Health Organization and Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF, will also target North Kivu, where cases have been rising sharply, health authorities said.

Some 50,000 health and other frontline workers will be injected with the Ervebo vaccine, which was developed for use against the more common Zaire strain.

Its effectiveness against the current Ebola strain caused by the Bundibugyo virus will be monitored in 20,000 recipients for up to one year.

Clinical trials are ongoing to find a licensed vaccine for the latest outbreak, which has no licensed vaccine or proven treatment.

“We don’t know to what degree it might be effective against the Bundibugyo strain,” Steve Ahuka, a Congolese official who is part of the health task force against the Ebola outbreak, said.

Dr Jeannot Elua said at a health facility in Bunia the vaccine was “beneficial”.

“We healthcare workers don’t really have a choice. We are going to receive it,” he told the Associated Press news agency. “Some people here had already received the previous vaccine. I received it myself, because it was mandatory.”

WHO experts have said that early data on the Ervebo vaccine, notably from animal trials, suggested it could offer some protection in the current outbreak.

The virus has killed at least 3,639 and infected some 7,541 people since May. Some 1,823 people have recovered, according to the latest figures from local authorities.

The WHO said in August that 70,000 doses of Ervebo were approved for use in the DRC.

The vaccine is being used under a compassionate-use programme, which allows a medical product to be used in a serious disease situation even though it has not been specifically approved for that particular use.

While WHO officials have cited “encouraging signs” that transmission may be slowing, MSF warned on Friday that there is no clear evidence the epidemic is coming under control.

Bank of Japan raises benchmark interest rate from 1 to 1.25 percent, pledging to help counter inflation risks.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has raised interest rates by 0.25 to 1.25 percent, pushing borrowing costs to their highest level in 31 years, amid rising inflation and wages, and pressure from Washington.

The move on Friday marked the first hike since June, and takes interest rates closer to levels the BoJ deems neutral to the economy, marking another step away from decades of ultra-low rates that cemented the yen’s status as a cheap global funding currency.

Japan is grappling to contain inflation, which is being driven by factors including rising energy prices, global supply pressures and domestic inflation exceeding the 2 percent target.

Core consumer inflation held steady near the target in August, data showed on Friday, as companies continued to pass on rising costs for a wide range of food and grocery items.

The country also faced a “slow-moving demographic shock” with a shrinking labour pool lifting wages, a structural factor that ⁠cannot be dismissed as temporary, BoJ Executive Director Koji Nakamura said on Monday.

The Federal Reserve’s rate hike on Wednesday, and the prospect of another one later this year, have added pressure on the BoJ to keep pace.

Further widening of the United States-Japan rate gap risks weakening the yen and lifting inflation through higher import costs, analysts told the Reuters news agency.

Its policy rate also remains lower than the European Central Bank, which raised its key rate to 2.5 percent last week.

Such pressure could affect the tone of BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting briefing, which will be closely watched by markets for clues on the timing and pace of further increases.

Published on
11/09/2026 – 15:25 GMT+2

The last major data point before the Fed meets has arrived, and it arrived while Americans were paying record prices at the pump.

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday afternoon that the annual rate held steady, with core inflation, which strips out food and energy, easing to 2.4% from 2.5%.

Every figure matched the consensus of economists and the monthly number is where the pressure shows.

Prices rose 0.4% in August against 0.1% in July, a fourfold acceleration and the fastest pace in three months. The annual rate stayed flat only because it is measured against the strong summer of 2025.

What it means for the Fed meeting

Markets had largely made up their minds before the figures landed.

CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of a quarter-point increase at the 16 September meeting at 67.4%, up sharply from around 40% before Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole address in late August.

Following the inflation data release, those odds moved to 91.6%.

Warsh’s first keynote as chair was the turning point as he argued the American economy had strengthened rather than weakened, that the labour market was consistent with full employment, and that he “would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”

On inflation Warsh was blunt by stating that “we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

By that test, Friday’s numbers are ambiguous.

Core inflation has now fallen for a second month and sits within half a point of the 2% target, which is underlying inflation moving in the right direction. The monthly acceleration points the other way.

Warsh also refused to say what would trigger a move, rejecting forward guidance as a practice that “has overstayed its welcome”. The Fed has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% since December, though three regional presidents dissented in July in favour of an increase, the most in one direction since 2016.

A fuel shock with no obvious end

The pressure is coming from energy, and it is intensifying.

US crude futures topped $100 a barrel this week as fighting between American and Iranian forces escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington striking five Iranian tankers after attempted missile attacks on a US Navy warship.

Diesel is where it bites hardest.

The US national average crossed $6 a gallon on Friday for the first time in the country’s history, at least in nominal terms, according to the American Automobile Association, and leaving truckers and farmers paying around 63% more than a year ago.

In California the average is close to $8. As for petrol, it is averaging $4.22 nationwide, against $2.98 before the war began.

Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports, removing roughly 800,000 barrels a day, while disruption around Hormuz has cost another 1.2 million.

Refineries representing about 5 million barrels a day of capacity have been shut by the two wars, and close to 8% of global diesel supply is currently disrupted.

Some retailers have already added delivery surcharges, and the effect on grocery prices tends to arrive with a lag, which means the energy shock in Friday’s numbers may not yet be the whole of it.

United States President Donald Trump has threatened more attacks on Iran, warning that Washington could hit Iran “anytime we want”, as the death toll from the latest US strikes climbed to 18, with at least 108 others wounded.

Trump’s threat on Wednesday came after the US and Iran exchanged their biggest barrage since July. The US military struck cities and areas along Iran’s southern coast, near the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, including a wedding party in the city of Kuhestak.

Iran retaliated with attacks on US bases across the Middle East, including Bahrain, Iraq and Jordan.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said, “We hit them very hard last night” and that the strikes “took out all of the new equipment that they tried to build along the Strait of Hormuz”.

“It was a very heavy attack last night. And we’re prepared to do another one. And anytime we want,” he said.

Iranian officials said at least 18 people were killed in the US strikes.

The victims included two children, according to Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi, Iran’s health minister. One of them was a four-year-old who was killed in the strike on the wedding party in Kuhestak in Sirik county.

At least four people were killed in that strike.

Esmaeil Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, described the Kuhestak attack as a “war crime” and hit back at US claims that it does not target civilians.

“The reality is so horrifying that even American propaganda has never dared make the claim [the US military] is making today. Sirik is not a story. The civilians are real. The victims are real”, Baghaei wrote on X.

Iranian media said the funeral for the four Kuhestak victims will be held on Thursday.

‘Uncomfortable strategic position’

The six-month war has led to a spike in oil prices, roiled the global economy and posed increasing political problems for Trump’s Republican Party ahead of November midterm elections in the US.

Only 31 percent of Americans approve of the war, while some 63 percent disapprove, according to a poll by the Reuters news agency and the Ipsos polling firm in August. Voters are particularly unhappy about high gas prices. Since the fighting resumed this weekend, the price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, has climbed to about $95, up more than 30 percent from the start of the war.

Trump’s approval rating has also fallen from 40 percent to 33 percent since the conflict began, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.

On Wednesday, Trump said he did not think the renewed military campaign ⁠would last long. He also reiterated his position that the upcoming elections were not a factor in his Iran strategy.

“Number one, I’m not running. My party is running, and I’m going to help my party,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “But I think my party respects the fact that we’re not allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

Iran has denied seeking a nuclear weapon.

Tariq Khan, a retired Pakistani lieutenant-general and former commander of the Pakistan Army’s Frontier Corps, said the US “now finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable strategic position in the Iran war”.

“The US has not succeeded in restoring the maritime environment that existed before the war, and is now expending military resources to deal with a problem the war itself helped create,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait was a free-flowing international waterway carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil before the war. Tehran shut the waterway in response to the US and Israeli strikes on February 18 that began the war. Despite repeated US claims that the strait remains open, only a handful of vessels now pass through each day, and Iran continues to target ships attempting the crossing.

On Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two oil tankers had struck mines and were disabled while attempting an unauthorised transit. Separately, Saudi shipping firm Bahri reported that two Filipino sailors were killed in an attack on their vessel earlier in the week.

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), which Tehran set up to police the Strait of Hormuz, added 11 more ships to its blacklist for alleged “noncompliance” this week, on top of the 45 blacklisted last week. The PGSA said the vessels will face fines, seizures or confiscation unless they submit required documentation to Iran before attempting to cross the strait.

Strait of Hormuz

At the same time, the US has intensified an economic isolation campaign against Iran, threatening to slap countries that ‌trade with Tehran with massive sanctions, while also maintaining its own blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump on Wednesday continued to insist that Washington was in control of the strait, saying US forces were helping bring “lots of boats out every day with millions of barrels of oil”.

“We are, for the most part, doing it without trouble. Every once in a while they shoot a drone, and we knock it down. We have control, very strong control,” he said.

On Tuesday, he had claimed the US Navy was helping escort some 30 ships out of the strait every day. Before the war, some 130 ships transited the waterway daily.

Khan, the former Pakistani general, said Iran understands it cannot defeat the US conventionally and is seeking to make the war costly for Trump.

“If Trump escalates, Iran can portray America as being drawn deeper into another Middle Eastern war; if he restrains himself, Tehran can claim that American military superiority cannot compel Iran to surrender,” he said.

“Iran does not need a battlefield victory; it needs to remain standing, keep the economic disruption alive, and make the war politically costly for the US. Tehran has to make American victory increasingly unaffordable – militarily, economically and electorally.”

Aug. 31 (UPI) — Oil prices surged early Monday after fighting flared in the U.S.-Iran conflict for the first time in four weeks since U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “pause” in U.S. military strikes on Aug. 1.

The contract for the benchmark Brent crude for November delivery jumped by 3.4% to $91.09 a barrel and the October contract for American crude saw a similar-sized increase to $86.22 after U.S. forces hit rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Hormuz Strait on Sunday night and Iran’s military retaliated, targeting American bases in Jordan.

The hikes were driven by the renewed hostilities stoking fears ongoing supply disruption caused by a drastic curtailment of tankers traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz would be made worse and persist for longer, according to experts.

“Supply risk will persist and oil inventories will continue to deplete in the coming weeks and months. The Iranian crisis has likely changed the security status quo in the Middle East,” said PVM Oil Associates’ London-based analyst Tamas Varga.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs, the impact of destructive attacks on refining capacity was responsible for upward pressure on margins.

“Rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already-stretched global refining capacity, pushing refined products margins to new highs,” the bank said in a note.

Prices at the pump in the United States on Monday remained broadly flat from the previous day, with the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded up 0.2 cents at 4.08 a gallon, and diesel down by a little over 0.3 cents at $5.60 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

The developments came as the United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982.

President Trump said Sunday he would restock it with oil from his Venezuela deal giving the United States secure a stake in more than 65 billion barrels of oil despite the fact it could to produce take many years to before the agreements yields any significant volumes because the oil is reserves, as yet to be drilled.

The price of oil has seesawed over the past two weeks after rising in response to Trump’s Aug. 19 threat to wage a “crushing economic operation” against Iran that his officials said would cause the regime to collapse, and then retreating again in the hours before the mainly-sanctions package of measures were unveiled on Aug. 24.