USIsrael

The war in Iran has taken a significant turn even as the memorandum of understanding to stop the fighting is supposed to be in progress.

Saudi Arabia, in coordination with the US, has carried out strikes inside Iraq against armed groups with ties to Iran.

Riyadh accused the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) of attacking its oil facilities.

The strikes have ignited fears of an escalation.

Now, the PMF is promising to retaliate.

And one of its factions has given the Iraqi government a week to respond to the Saudi attacks.

What could happen if it does not?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Ahmed Rushdi – President of the House of Iraqi Expertise Foundation, a policy think tank and research organisation

Ahmed al-Maimouni – Head of research at the Rasanah International Institute of Iranian Studies

Muhanad Seloom – Assistant professor in critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies

The US has bombed multiple cities across southern Iran, including Ahvaz and Abadan, in what Central Command described as a ‘heavy wave of strikes’. Earlier, US President Donald Trump said the US would hit Iran ‘very hard’ in retaliation for an attack on US forces in Jordan.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect halted.
Tankers are now avoiding another critical waterway – Bab al-Mandeb – as Yemen’s Houthi forces threaten Saudi-linked vessels. Ukrainian strikes have hit Russian export infrastructure.
Three major routes are now disrupted at once: the Gulf, the Red Sea and the Black Sea.

Together, they threaten trade flows equivalent to nearly a quarter of global oil supplies just as reserves sit at multiyear lows.
Goldman Sachs says oil could rise above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz alone persist.
Economies worldwide are bracing for another energy shock.

The US and Saudi Arabia launched joint air strikes on Iraq, targeting ‘Iran-aligned’ groups after drone attacks targeted US forces in the region and Saudi oil facilities. Saudi Arabia says it acted in self-defence, while Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces reported at least 20 killed.

The US military says it has successfully intercepted a barrage of missiles fired by Iran at its troops in Jordan. The sudden attack coincides with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the White House and comes after a five-day pause in the war. Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar reports from Tehran.

Oman’s proposal is based on the Strait of Malacca in East Asia, a model whereby ships that use the strait provide voluntary fees.

Iran and Oman have exchanged proposals regarding the future management of the Strait of Hormuz, as points of contention continue to exist between the two nations whose territorial waters border the strategic waterway.

Oman presented a proposal to Iran ⁠for ⁠a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with “voluntary fees”, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Under the Omani proposal, which reportedly has regional backing, Iran would not exercise sole control ⁠of the strait, an unnamed Gulf source and Western diplomat ⁠told the news agency.

Oman’s proposal is reportedly based on the Strait of Malacca, which connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans. There, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore ask ships that use the strait to voluntarily contribute to fund navigation, environmental protection, and ‌search-and-rescue operations.

This proposal aims to contribute to ending the global disruption to trade caused by the strait’s closure in the US-Israeli war on Iran. Tehran, however, says the strait ⁠cannot go back to its pre-war status where shipping flowed freely,

In comments to Iranian state media on Tuesday, Kazem Gharibabadi, the country’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, said Tehran rejects an Omani proposal for an equal division of transit routes between the two countries, as such a plan does not address Tehran’s security concerns.

Gharibabadi said that Tehran proposed to Oman that Iran would manage shipping through its side of ‌the strait and Muscat would manage part but not all of the opposite lane.

He added that Tehran has “no plans to negotiate with the US”, but affirmed talks are proceeding “step by step” with Oman, warning that Tehran will consider “any action” to maintain control over the strait, including the resumption of war.

“The Omanis are now suggesting three lines for the maritime traffic: one that runs through Iran’s territorial waters, an international one, and one through Omani territorial waters,” said Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from Tehran. “Despite public statements, our sources tell us Iran is demonstrating some flexibility.”

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, also reporting from Tehran, said there remain many “points of contention” between Oman and Iran on Hormuz. These include the trajectory of the ships, the fees, the question of who will define the arrangements, and mine clearances – which will reportedly be Iran’s responsibility.

Paul Musgrave, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Oman’s proposal to Iran to get the Strait of Hormuz running again is positive, but it remains to be seen if hardliners in Iran will go for it.

Musgrave noted that under the Strait of Malacca model, voluntary contributions raise about $70m annually, far from the $1m per ship that’s reportedly been proposed by Tehran as a “service fee” in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers met via video call on Tuesday to discuss the latest developments in the conflict, including ways to improve cooperation on issues surrounding freedom and navigation through the waterway, a statement from the Qatari Foreign Ministry said.

The United States suspended a nearly two-week-long campaign of air strikes against Iran over the weekend after pressure from regional mediators to find a diplomatic solution and to return to the memorandum of understanding signed in June, which would allow shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait carried one-fifth of global energy supplies before ⁠the February 28 start of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Last week, it was reported that US President Donald Trump placed massive attacks on Iran on hold after a meeting with advisers at the White House. Clearly, domestic political pressure on him and on the Republican Party over rising economic costs is fierce. Current polls suggest nearly 70 percent of Americans oppose the war.

Despite assertions, notably by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, that Iran’s military has reached “its lowest point ever”, Iran is still able to conduct massive drone and missile strikes. Some intelligence suggests Iran has reconstituted and increased its capacity to build these weapons.

Meanwhile, the US has moved more aircraft and missile defence units in preparation for what may be a campaign to target staging points for Iranian forces. Two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) and components of the 82nd or 101st Airborne are currently stationed in the region.

Yet, reports that the US and its Gulf allies have exhausted defensive missile magazines, as well as Tomahawk land-attack missiles, may be a powerful constraint.

While Trump appears not to have made a decision yet, he has several options on how to move forward.

The first option is ramping up air and missile strikes. One of the challenges of this strategy is that the list of military targets may have been exhausted. If so, expanding the aerial campaign would mean attacking largely civilian infrastructure, including energy production facilities, electricity and power grids, bridges and roads, and television and phone networks. The likely outcomes are all bad.

Trump would be accused of war crimes. The Iranian public would coalesce in their resentment against the US. Iran’s ability to strike back would not be significantly curbed and it may strike Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure. The result would be a humanitarian catastrophe. No plans exist to deal with this contingency. And of course, oil could soar to $150 or even $200 a barrel, triggering an international economic disaster.

Another option is a ground invasion of some sort. The forces currently deployed in the region are too small to achieve any realistic military objectives. A MEU numbers about 2,500 marines and only 800 of them are infantry, able to conduct very limited ground operations. Airborne units deploy with only a few days worth of bullets, beans and batteries. Resupply is essential for these units.

As retired US Army General Barry McCaffery has pointed out, even 150,000 troops may not be enough to secure control of the Strait of Hormuz along the Iranian coast.

Attacking Kharg Island requires a long and dangerous transit from the western end of the Strait of Hormuz. That would create conditions for a high number of casualties among US troops.

The third option is for Trump to employ a nuclear weapon, at least as a demonstration shot. That would open a catastrophic Pandora’s box of consequences. Trump would be declared a war criminal. Wherever and however the weapon is detonated—an air or surface burst—it would have destructive outcomes.

If exploded exoatmospherically, the nuclear bomb would emit an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) which would destroy virtually all chip-installed systems for hundreds of miles beyond Iran. Few modern militaries, including in the Gulf, are protected from EMP due to costs. A surface burst would form a radioactive cloud that would travel east given the winds and affect populations well beyond Iran.

A major geopolitical consequence would be that such an attack could change the way Russia’s President Vladimir Putin sees the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine.

Given this list of unpalatable options, the most promising is to claim victory and pursue negotiations. Trump will say he has brought Iran to the negotiating table even though talks between Washington and Tehran have not stopped despite the escalation. The first issue would be reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. Oil prices would drop. Stock markets would rebound.

Trump would take the credit. And a devastating war and economic crisis would be sensibly avoided. This is his best and only sensible option.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has arrived in Washington, DC, and will visit the White House on Tuesday, with the war on Iran topping the agenda.

Netanyahu’s visit is his first for talks with President Donald Trump since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran with strikes on Tehran on February 28. It also comes amid increasing Israeli raids and arrests in the occupied West Bank and three months before elections in Israel.

He has visited the White House more times under the Trump administration than under any other US president. Political analysts say Netanyahu is seeking Trump’s support for re-election.

What are the two leaders likely to discuss and what happens next in the US-Israel war on Iran?

Here’s what we know:

Why are Trump and Netanyahu meeting now?

Netanyahu is primarily in the US to attend the funeral ceremony of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who died on July 11.

Graham was a close Trump ally in the Senate, both on domestic and international matters, including the war on Iran, as well as a staunch supporter of Israel. His funeral ceremony will take place on Tuesday in Washington, DC, beginning at 2pm (19:00 GMT).

Before attending Graham’s memorial, Netanyahu is also expected to meet Trump at 11am (15:00 GMT) in Washington, DC, where protesters have lined the streets in anticipation of his visit.

He is scheduled to fly back to Israel on Wednesday.

What are Trump and Netanyahu likely to discuss?

A White House official told the Reuters news agency that the two leaders were likely to discuss the war on Iran as well as Israeli strikes and occupation of Lebanon, whose president Trump hosted last week. Israel says it is targeting strongholds of the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, which began firing rockets into its north shortly after the war on Iran began. However, Iran says it will not agree to a peace deal unless Israeli forces withdraw from Lebanon.

Reporting from Washington, DC, Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher said many people in Israel believe the US should not make a deal with Iran and should instead resume the war. He said some in the US support this view.

“Now, Trump has expressed his frustration with Netanyahu and has said several times that he feels the Israeli leader is not seeing the big picture. And sometimes you’re not sure whether both men are on the same page or whether they are diametrically opposed to one another. So it will be interesting to see if we get any readout from either side after that meeting,” he said.

Fisher, however, added that the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is currently not expected to be made public.

The White House official also told Reuters that the two leaders would also discuss the Abraham Accords, the series of agreements between Israel and Arab and other nations which Trump began brokering during his first term as US president to normalise diplomatic relations. So far, only the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and Kazakhstan have agreed to sign.

Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, DC comes amid intensifying pogroms and violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinian communities across the occupied West Bank over the weekend following a deadly shootout in the town of Tal, in which two Israelis and four Palestinians were killed.

Israeli settlers have been making a push to increase the number of illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank since 2022, when Netanyahu formed the most far-right government in the country’s history, including ministers who are leading figures in the settler movement.

Expanding the illegal settlements would help Netanyahu garner the far right’s support in the upcoming elections, political observers say.

However, in a letter published on Tuesday, about 600 former Israeli officials appealed to Trump, saying he is the only one capable of helping to avoid the “calamity” of escalating violence in the West Bank and its implications for Israeli, US and regional security.

“Unless arrested swiftly and decisively, escalating violence in the West Bank is poised to ignite the region and carries severe ramifications for both Israeli security and US regional interests,” the letter, written by lobby group Commanders for Israel’s Security (CIS), stated.

“It is our professional judgment that no one but you, Mr President, can avert this calamity.”

CIS is a movement of more than 550 retired Israeli army colonels and generals, as well as equivalent ranks in the intelligence agency Mossad, the internal security agency Shin Bet, police, the foreign service and other corps.

What do Trump and Netanyahu currently disagree on?

The two leaders once appeared politically inseparable, with Netanyahu describing Trump as the “greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House” last October. Trump returned the praise. During a 2025 appearance in Israel, he joked, “He’s not easy – not the easiest guy to deal with – but that’s what makes him great.”

But Israel’s hostilities with Iran have showcased a crack in Netanyahu and Trump’s alignment.

War on Iran

Last month, Trump reportedly called Netanyahu “f****** crazy” during a phone call and accused him of undermining US diplomatic efforts to end the war on Iran by continuing attacks on Lebanon, among other issues. He warned that Israel’s military escalation risked derailing peace talks with Iran.

“He will have no choice,” Trump told the Financial Times when asked about the likelihood of Netanyahu approving a possible peace agreement with Iran. “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.”

Political observers say the two leaders are each driven by their own political interests, which are on a collision course. In the US, the war with Iran is deeply unpopular, so Trump needs to reach a deal with Iran to end the war. Netanyahu, on the other hand, could benefit politically at home if it were to continue.

‘Regime change’ in Iran

“Regime change” in Iran appears to be a major sticking point between the two leaders.

Alex Vatanka at the Middle East Institute told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu is likely to try and “sell the idea of regime change again in Tehran” when he meets Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

“I don’t think it will go down well with President Trump because he doesn’t want to do that,” Vatanka said. “Politically, in the US, this war is hugely unpopular, so it remains to be seen what Prime Minister Netanyahu gets out of this meeting.”

He added that previous meetings between Trump and Netanyahu in Washington, DC, have often preceded a flare-up in tensions with Iran, and it remains to be seen whether this one breaks that pattern.

Vatanka said Israelis are still unhappy with the Trump administration about the memorandum of understanding agreed with Tehran, because they “have a different sense of threat perception when it comes to Iran”.

Israeli officials will want Netanyahu to continue to press Trump on Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programmes, he said.

“The Trump administration’s counter to that is there is only so much the US can do militarily unless they decide to go in and occupy Iran, and this is something nobody really takes seriously,” he added.

But in a video statement before departing for Washington, DC, Netanyahu said: “In these complex times, you need to act with both great determination and great wisdom. We will discuss all the issues ⁠on the agenda, primarily Iran.”

“Of course, our goal is to protect our security and also to expand the circle of peace around us,” he added.

Lebanon

Israel has also refused to withdraw from Lebanon, insisting that it has the right to bomb the country at any time to respond to “threats”.

According to Axios, in a phone call in early June, Trump told Netanyahu: “Everybody hates you now … everybody hates Israel because of this.”

According to an Israeli official quoted by CNN, Netanyahu told his security cabinet on Sunday that the Trump administration wants Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza but he would oppose the idea.

US-Turkiye aircraft deal

Al Jazeera’s Fisher noted that another point of friction between the two leaders is Washington’s sale of F-35 aircraft to Turkiye.

“Netanyahu doesn’t want that to happen. Trump was asked about it in the last few hours, and he said we will sell to whoever he wants. So it could be a very interesting meeting at the White House on Tuesday,” Fisher said.

In July, in an interview with Fox News, Netanyahu said: “I don’t think they [Turkiye] should be given F-35s or the engines for their fighter jets because that’ll upset the power balance in the Middle East, which is ultimately guaranteed by Israeli air superiority, and also by, I think, by America’s posture in the Middle East.”

So, do Trump and Netanyahu agree on anything?

Currently, there are frictions between the two leaders’ policies towards the June 17 MoU between the US and Iran that made provision for a regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon.

In February, a White House official told reporters that the Trump administration also opposes any Israeli annexation of the occupied West Bank.

Netanyahu has, however, brushed off frictions with Trump and said their ties are “fine”.

In an interview with Fox News in early July, Netanyahu heaped praise on the US and Trump.

“America has been a tremendous force for good, and without America, there won’t be any democracy in the world, and there won’t be any freedom in the world,” he said.

Netanyahu said there may be some differences between the US and Israel, but the two countries are “model allies”.

“My relationship with the president is fine, and we have a way of ironing out our differences as allies who respect each other,” he said, adding that he would smooth things over.

But an Israeli official told CNN on Monday that it had taken time to schedule the meeting with Trump, and that Netanyahu got confirmation only once Graham’s funeral had been announced.

Speaking to reporters about the war on Iran on board Air Force One while travelling to Michigan on Monday, Trump said Israel “needs the US”.

“You know who wouldn’t survive without us? Israel. Bibi’s coming, he’ll tell you,” he said.

“If I didn’t get involved, and I didn’t blow up those nuclear, essentially, soon-to-be nuclear weapons to dust, Israel would have been terminated months ago.”

Trump added that he and Netanyahu remain “pretty close”.

What happens next?

Amid frictions, it is unclear whether the meeting will end with Israel and the US continuing their war on Iran and Israel continuing its attacks on southern Lebanon, Gaza and in the occupied West Bank.

Therefore, it is going to be a high-stakes meeting for Netanyahu.

Sources have also told Reuters that Netanyahu would use the meeting to lobby for Trump’s support for his re-election campaign ahead of an October 27 vote.

A meeting with Trump will, he hopes, showcase what has traditionally been ⁠a close relationship between the two leaders and could help Netanyahu at home, where he is struggling in opinion polls.

Iran’s supreme leader calls for ‘absolute, unconditional termination’ of Israel’s attacks on Lebanon amid reports of renewed diplomacy.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has said that peace between Tehran and the United States is contingent on Israel stopping its attacks on Lebanon.

Khamenei made the statement in a post on X on Sunday.

Iran “has designated the preservation of Lebanon’s territorial integrity, and the absolute, unconditional termination of the Zionist regime’s aggression as the primary condition for any agreement to ending the imposed war against the aggressive US,” he wrote.

Khamenei also voiced his support for the Lebanese group Hezbollah, its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and the people of southern Lebanon – the focal point of Israel’s attacks – in a series of posts.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran considers the defense of these oppressed yet powerful mujahideen [of Hezbollah] to be its strategic mandate,” Khamenei said.

Khamenei’s intervention comes amid reports of a halt to attacks and renewed diplomacy between Tehran and Washington.

Iran has insisted on an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon a precondition for ending the war, enshrining that demand in the first clause of the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the two countries in June.

That agreement has since collapsed amid a dispute over the Strait of Hormuz.

Lebanon was drawn into the conflict in March after Hezbollah launched strikes on northern Israel, citing both the killing of then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the war’s first day, February 28, and Israel’s near-daily bombardment of Lebanese territory – attacks it says violated a ceasefire that had ended an earlier round of hostilities in 2024.

On June 26, following the signing of the US-Iran MoU, Lebanon and Israel signed a US-mediated framework agreement stipulating a phased Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory, but without a timetable for the withdrawal.

Instead, it said Israel will withdraw from occupied territories once Hezbollah is disarmed.

Iran and Hezbollah, which was not a party to the talks, have rejected the deal.

While the first phase is Israel’s withdrawal from three “pilot zones”, the Lebanese army said on Sunday that Israeli forces are obstructing the process, including by refusing to withdraw from designated territories.

As of Sunday, Israel was still bulldozing, shelling and conducting combing operations with machineguns across large areas of southern Lebanese territory it is occupying.

At least 4,329 people have been killed, while 37 Israeli soldiers and four Israeli civilians have died in the latest round of violence in Lebanon.

Israel violated a previous ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel more than 10,000 times, according to UN peacekeepers.

Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of the former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He was selected as supreme leader after the US and Israel’s assassination of his father.

Khamenei’s statement on Lebanon comes as war spreads into Yemen, with reports of an exchange of attacks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

Tehran, Iran – Iran and the United States have returned to mediated talks, and their military action is temporarily suspended, but the war continues to impact international maritime corridors beyond the Strait of Hormuz as well as domestic markets.

The near-total closure of the strategic waterway, disruptions in the Red Sea by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen and Ukraine attacking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea have all kept tensions high.

Iran’s government is also facing more tough choices, including a potential fuel price hike amid high social and economic discontent, as the US military enforces a naval blockade of the country’s southern ports for a second time.

The Ministry of Petroleum said on Saturday that Iran has sold $11.5bn of crude oil during the war without specifying the exact dates and $6.5bn during the period of the now-suspended memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with the US last month. It said the combined figure represented 60 percent of the full-year oil revenue target in the budget.

The signing of the June 17 MoU led to the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran, which eased some of the pressure on global oil markets and allowed Iran to export oil stored on supertankers waiting to sail from its territorial waters. Iran’s Petroleum Ministry said increased oil prices generated about $3bn in additional value in the first half of the year and $11bn from the yields has so far been transferred to government coffers despite US embargoes.

During the previous blockade that was imposed on April 13 and lasted a little over two months, Iranian authorities attested to near-zero crude exports. A prolonged second blockade risks further reducing Iran’s export revenues and piling pressure on Kharg Island, through which about 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports pass, and other Iranian storage and export sites, which could in turn affect production at petrochemical plants and make an eventual restart costlier and slower.

The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said that as of Saturday, soldiers had redirected 12 commercial vessels trying to run the blockade that has been in place since mid-July, disabled two that did not comply and boarded two “to ensure total compliance”.

The US military also showed footage of heavily armed soldiers rappelling down from a helicopter onto the deck of the Charminar, an Iran-linked oil tanker subject to US sanctions since last year for allegedly being part of the Shamkhani network. The US says Iranian oil magnate Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani plays a central role in Iranian and Russian shadow fleet operations.

Iran has also said it has been redirecting multiple ships each day to keep the strait closed as its armed forces emphasised that they will not bow to pressure. On Sunday, Iranian media reports said a vessel blew up after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, CENTCOM has stopped extensive bombing strikes against Iran for two nights with US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz saying President Donald Trump is giving talks with Tehran “some space”.

Iran has also stopped retaliatory attacks across the region while Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said discussions with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have been productive.

The domestic picture

The oil export constraints, however, are still adding to Iran’s existing economic woes, which are linked to domestic structural issues and mismanagement as well as years of harsh sanctions.

Iran’s infrastructure has also suffered significant damage during the war launched by the US and Israel in late February and may fare worse if the conflict escalates.

The government said last month that about 230 million cubic metres (300 million cubic yards) per day of Iran’s pre-war natural gas output of roughly 650 million cubic metres (850 million cubic yards) was lost due to US and Israeli bombing, worsening electricity and petrochemical shortages.

Sekhavat Asadi, managing director of the Pars Special Economic Energy Zone, said on Sunday that Iran expects to restore more than 100 million cubic metres (130 million cubic yards) per day of that lost production capacity within the coming months.

Authorities are also managing a fuel imbalance as the country faces a deficit of more than 20 million litres (5.3 million gallons) per day of petrol. The shortage is managed through limited but costly imports, blending fuel components, tapping inventories stocked before the war and repeatedly asking citizens to consume less.

The Petroleum Ministry said tighter monthly fuel consumption caps may be imposed if the imbalance persists.

The government said this week that it is seriously considering doubling the price of a third tier of monthly petrol quotas allocated to individuals.

Another petrol price hike was made in December, weeks before the country was swept by a wave of nationwide protests, in which thousands of people were killed in a government crackdown in January. An overnight fuel price increase in November 2019 also triggered deadly nationwide protests.

The capital, Tehran, and cities across the country are facing rolling electricity cuts, which also create water and communications disruptions. President Masoud Pezeshkian said he has ordered industries not to be cut off until late September to avoid further inflaming a bruised jobs market.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also hit Iran’s commerce with China, its largest trading partner and buyer of oil, which has considerably curtailed its overall crude oil imports to adapt to conditions created by the war.

But nonoil trade with China has also deteriorated since the start of the war, falling by 75 percent in March and June when compared with a year before, according to Chinese customs data.

Two near-total internet shutdowns imposed by the authorities, first during the January protests and then during the war, only worsened conditions for Iran’s economy this year as it battles chronic inflation and a rapid dwindling of public purchasing power.

A report last year by the Saba Pension Strategies Institute, a think tank affiliated with Iran’s state-run pension fund, found that while a little more than 30 percent of Iranians lived below the poverty line five years ago, that rate was projected to have reached 45 percent this year – and was still rising.

Spread to Bab al-Mandeb, Caspian Sea

After repeated Iranian threats that escalating the war could spread the scope of maritime disruptions to the Red Sea, the Houthis in Yemen last week declared a blockade against Saudi Arabia, turning back or hitting vessels transiting near the strait of Bab al-Mandeb while also bombing Saudi oil facilities.

Dozens of commodity vessels have still continued their transit through the strait, including Chinese supertankers, but war-risk premiums have increased, raising import and insurance costs for all.

Saudi authorities, who lead a coalition backing Yemen’s internationally recognised government against the Houthis, have responded by launching major air attacks across Yemen.

And farther north, Ukraine has confirmed that it struck a vessel in the Caspian Sea with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alleging it was carrying Iran-linked military cargo.

Iran’s authorities said it was a commercial vessel importing iron from Astrakhan, a port on the Volga River in Russia, and bound for Bandar Anzali in northern Iran. They said one sailor was killed and three were wounded.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Kyiv’s charge d’affaires in Tehran to deliver a strong protest and a warning that “the act will not go unanswered”.

The incident has raised concerns that the Caspian Sea, a waterway previously used safely for trade, could also become the scene of more military confrontations.

Iran’s Caspian trade is primarily with Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. It imports essential goods, such as wheat and other grains, corn, barley and animal feed as well as timber and fertiliser.

The country’s exports through the northern maritime route include construction materials, steel products, agricultural goods and some refined petrochemical products.

The war’s expanding disruptions have only prompted hardline state-linked analysts to advocate closer strategic partnerships with China and Russia.

“We can now say that the two war fronts in the Middle East and Ukraine are increasingly intertwined,” Mahdi Kharratiyan, a political analyst linked with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, wrote on X on Sunday.

Iran says it has halted ‘retaliatory operations’ in the Gulf but warns that if the US continues its attacks, the conflict will expand across the region. Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia had a message for the US ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington.

The US military has released footage it says shows forces boarding one tanker and disabling another accused of attempting to breach its naval blockade of Iran. CENTCOM says 12 commercial vessels have been redirected and two disabled for failing to comply.

Tehran, Iran – A public rift has emerged between Iran’s government and state television over how to portray the state of war and negotiations with the United States, as mediators try to nudge both countries towards diplomacy.

The Government Information Council on Friday accused state broadcaster IRIB of “censorship” after parts of a speech by President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier in the week were not shown to the public.

The broadcaster, whose head is appointed by the supreme leader, issued a response on Saturday rejecting the government’s “accusations and improper attributions”, and emphasised that it has a duty to prevent “an incorrect and unreal suggestion of duality in the country’s leadership pillars”.

In his speech, Pezeshkian had pointed out that after last year’s 12-day war with Israel, former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly said there would be no negotiations with Washington – but privately had given his approval.

“We went to the dear leader, explained the situation, and asked him what to do since he had said the ‘no war, no peace’ conditions are bad for the country,” the president said. “He ordered us to go negotiate. We started the talks based on his order.”

The government said in its statement the move to cut that section of the speech was part of a series of “unusual actions” taken by state television concerning recent comments made by the heads of the government, parliament and judiciary.

It pointed out that earlier this month, a part of the parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s interview with state television dealing with negotiations had also been cut. The government council added that a part of a speech earlier this week by judiciary head Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei was not aired either, in which he expressed backing for the president.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also separately criticised IRIB, saying during an interview with a state-linked outlet released on Saturday that he “fought with a sword” in wartime interviews with US media such as Fox, CNN and others. The chief diplomat said he expected state television to show how Iran’s case was being strongly presented to US audiences and policymakers, but only one or two subtitles from the interviews ended up going on air.

Araghchi also rejected a notion raised by hardliners that the now-suspended memorandum of understanding signed with the US last month was “imposed” on new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, as some hardliners have claimed. He characterised it as the best possible agreement under the circumstances.

In its own statement, the government blamed the actions on “a political faction within” state television, in an apparent reference to the Paydari Front of ultrahardliners, and said their actions could serve to undermine national security and social cohesion.

IRIB, in a statement published by its public relations department, countered that broadcasting the president’s segment would have propagated an appearance of division.

Both sides accused each other of undermining the decree issued last week by Mojtaba Khamenei to reach a “sacred unity” in face of military, economic and diplomatic pressure by the US.

Mohammad Mirzaei, a member of parliament and spokesperson of a committee tasked with exerting oversight on IRIB, said on Saturday that directors of the state broadcaster have been warned about the necessity to display different viewpoints and to act as a “sign of national unity”.

Conservative journalist Mohammad Mohajeri told local media that the broadcaster is now at its most expensive and least effective. Reformist activist Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hesar described the deeper problem as “one government being installed and another government called IRIB operating against it”.

Reformist Entekhab news outlet reported, citing an unnamed source, that Pezeshkian sharply reprimanded IRIB chief Peyman Jebeli at a cabinet meeting after the row over the negotiations. Jebeli, who was appointed by Ali Khamenei in 2021, was media deputy at the Supreme National Security Council when Saeed Jalili, the only council member said to have voted against an interim deal with the US last month, was its secretary.

Hardline lawmaker Meysam Zohourian said the president has threatened to cut state television’s budget, but the administration has not confirmed this.

As the public sparring unfolded, mediators from Oman were in Tehran on Friday to discuss the management of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway whose control has become a central point of contention between the US and Iran.

US President Donald Trump argued on Friday the war was going “extremely well” and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Washington in the coming days.

He said the two sides continued to talk through mediators, but that he did not expect any agreement soon.

The US president also refused to answer whether realising his threat of systematically attacking power plants and bridges in Iran in case of a war escalation would constitute war crimes.

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, on Saturday responded by saying missile and drone launches across the region will continue “until the full surrender of the enemy” and avenging the blood of civilians killed during the war.

Omani delegation in Iran to discuss managing traffic in the strait, which has become the main focus of the US conflict.

A delegation from Oman has arrived in Iran to discuss options for managing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as the United States and Iran continue attacks.

The Omani diplomats arrived in Tehran late on Friday for talks with Iranian officials on mechanisms governing navigation through the strait, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported.

Control over the strait has become the main focus of hostilities between the US and Iran, with the global economy exposed to rising energy prices due to the closure of the strategically important waterway, through which around 20 percent of oil and gas exports were shipped before the outbreak of the conflict.

IRNA said the delegation’s visit was part of ongoing consultations between Iran and Oman. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call with his Omani counterpart, Badr Albusaidi.

No details regarding the ideas being discussed were released. However, Tehran has maintained throughout the war that it is open to managing the critical waterway in coordination with Oman.

The US and Gulf states have rejected such a setup. However, Oman holds a strategic position at the entrance and exit to the strait and has historically played a mediating role in regional disputes, maintaining diplomatic ties with both Gulf states and Iran.

“Vital waterways, including the Strait of Hormuz, must remain open and accessible for navigation, free from any measures that would impede freedom of navigation and international trade flows,” Albusaidi posted on X.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged air strikes for the 14th day in a row, despite efforts to rekindle diplomacy aimed at persuading both to implement the Memorandum of Understanding. It achieved a pause in fighting last month but collapsed, largely due to differences over what was agreed regarding freedom of navigation in the strait.

The crisis has only deepened since Houthi rebels in Yemen declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia on Monday, opening a new front.

On Friday, Iran’s military claimed further attacks on US bases across the region, which have been the main target for its fire during the hostilities.

Attacks were reported on bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, while a drone crash near Iraq’s Erbil International Airport forced the temporary suspension of flights.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said they targeted US tech giant Amazon’s data centre in Bahrain for “providing intelligence support for the American child-killing army”.

The Houthis have also reportedly continued to target Saudi tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait. However, a Houthi spokesman denied the group has shut down the waterway.

The US Central Command said it had concluded air strikes on Iran. Iranian media reported four people were injured in blasts in several cities, including Khorramabad, Jask, Ahvaz and Bandar Abbas, as well as Qeshm Island.

Iran’s Health Ministry said at least 55 people have been killed in recent US attacks and nearly 650 injured.

The United States has continued to attack Iran for a 13th consecutive night on Thursday and explosions were reported in multiple Iranian cities on Friday morning.

In addition to the ongoing attacks, shipping disruptions continue to intensify. Ship tracking data revealed that just one tanker successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the lowest level since May 7.

However, shipping data from London Stock Exchange Group shows that two Chinese supertankers carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia successfully exited the Bab al-Mandeb strait on Friday. This is despite the naval blockade Yemen’s Houthis announced against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

Here is a recap of what happened on Thursday night and Friday.

Where did the US attack Iran?

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that at 01:00 GMT on Friday, it concluded its latest round of strikes against Iran.

CENTCOM said it targeted Iranian military command centres, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites and maritime capabilities.

On Friday, Iranian media reported explosions or attacks across multiple Iranian cities. State broadcaster IRIB reported that explosions were reported in Khondab, Khorramabad, Konarak and Jask. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported that two people have been injured following an early morning drone attack on Khorramabad, citing the deputy governor of the western Lorestan province.

Iran’s Mehr news agency reported on Friday that US missile strikes hit the cities of Andimeshk and Omidiyeh in the Khuzestan province. There were no casualties or injuries.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Assidi reported from the Iranian capital, Tehran, that explosions were heard on Qeshm island, located in the Strait of Hormuz, on Friday.

Attacks on the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas have injured two people, Iranian media reported on Friday.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Friday that four people were killed and five others were injured in a US missile attack near the southwestern city of Ahvaz.

Where did Iran strike in the Gulf?

Bahrain: In a statement carried by Iran’s Mehr news agency, the Iranian army said it used drones to target fuel storage tanks, equipment warehouses and troop living quarters at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain.

Jordan: The military added that aircraft hangars, maintenance facilities and accommodation sites at the Muwaffaq Salti/Al-Azraq base in Jordan were also hit, warning that any actions against Iran’s interests would undermine regional security and economic stability.

What have leaders on either side said?

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump stepped up his rhetoric against Tehran. He told the US news website Axios that he may launch the largest strikes on Iran yet, after Tehran carried out another wave of retaliatory attacks on US allies in the Gulf, including hitting a telecommunications tower in Kuwait.

Trump said he was “considering a massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before”.

“I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it,” Trump said.

Separately, Trump threatened, on his Truth Social platform, that if Iran attacked ships, the US would use Tehran’s frozen assets to pay for repairs.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Friday that using frozen state assets to pay for future claims sets a dangerous global precedent.

“Seizing another nation’s assets to pay for unrelated future claims is an incendiary precedent,” Araghchi wrote on X.

He cautioned that “those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalise confiscation, no one’s assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful”.

President Trump says damages will be paid for by Iranian money that the US has ‘in its possession, and controls’.

United States President Donald Trump has pledged to use frozen Iranian assets to pay for any damage to ships and cargo in the Strait of Hormuz, garnering strong condemnation from Tehran.

Tensions between Iran and the US have escalated since the beginning of July as the two sides trade attacks and Tehran targets US military bases in the region.

Washington completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran late on Thursday, with Trump saying he is considering a “massive attack” on the country, “bigger than ever before”.

Writing on his Truth Social platform on Thursday, Trump said that damages would be paid for by “Iranian Money that the United States has in its possession, and controls”.

“These damages may be very substantial but, nevertheless, this is the fair and equitable thing to do,” Trump added.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned Trump’s comments and said in a post on X on Friday morning that seizing another country’s assets to “pay for unrelated future claims is an incendiary precedent”.

“Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalise confiscation, no one’s assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful,” he added.

The case of Iran’s frozen assets has been an issue that the two sides had been discussing in the now-collapsed memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreement that was signed between Tehran and Washington in June as a pathway to end the war.

But the US and other governments have “frozen” Iranian assets for decades.

While the exact amount of frozen money belonging to Iran is not known, some estimates put it at about $100bn.

Washington first froze Iranian funds in 1979 after US citizens were taken hostage at the US embassy in Tehran.

At the same time, Trump pledged “major military punishment” for Iran and its Houthi allies on Thursday after the Yemeni fighters struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.

But on Friday morning, the Iranian army announced in a statement carried by the state Mehr News Agency that it had launched a new wave of drone attacks on US military installations in Bahrain and Jordan.

Moreover, ship tracking data seen by the Reuters news agency found that the number of tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz fell to just one on Thursday, the lowest level since May 7.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi reports from Tehran as the US launches strikes for the 13th consecutive night. Iranian leaders are warning further attacks could lead to retaliation targeting Gulf nations.

The US president’s threat comes after another day of Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.

United States President Donald Trump says he may launch the largest strikes on Iran yet after Tehran carried out another wave of retaliatory attacks on US allies in the Gulf, including hitting a telecommunications tower in Kuwait.

In remarks to US news website Axios on Thursday, Trump said he was “considering a massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before”.

“I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it,” Trump said.

The threat raises the stakes yet again in a weeks-long military confrontation in which the US has attacked Iran for 12 straight nights, including hitting bridges and tunnels, according to Iranian media reports.

Iran’s retaliatory attacks have rippled throughout much of the Gulf, sparking fears of a worsening energy crisis.

The spiralling conflict has all but destroyed an interim peace deal signed by the US and Iran last month.

‘Eye for an eye’

Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi warned on Wednesday that Tehran would retaliate “an eye for an eye” against any future attacks, including those on Iran’s infrastructure.

After another night of US attacks on Wednesday, Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait on Thursday.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the attacks in Jordan and Kuwait targeted and hit US military assets.

The IRGC also acknowledged attacking a telecommunications tower in Kuwait, saying it was in retaliation for US attacks on telecommunications towers in Iran.

In a statement addressing the Kuwaiti people directly, the IRGC insisted that the US, not Iran, had breached the Gulf state’s “territorial integrity and sovereignty”.

Later on Thursday, Kuwait said that its Abdali border crossing with Iraq had also come under attack by “hostile drones”.

“The armed forces’ retaliatory attacks will continue as long as the US attacks on the country’s infrastructure and coastal areas continue,” said the Iranian army’s spokesperson, Mohammad Akraminia.

Houthis attack Saudi tankers

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi rebels further expanded the confrontation on Thursday by firing at two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, leading to broad international condemnation and a spike in global oil prices.

“The situation is getting out of control. It is teetering on the edge of the unimaginable,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a meeting of the Security Council. “One crisis feeds another. One escalation triggers the next.”

The Houthis have declared a blockade of Saudi Arabian ports, destabilising a second key global shipping route: the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since the US and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February.

Reporting from Sanaa, Yemen, Al Jazeera’s Yousef Mawry cited Houthi sources as saying that the facilities of Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Aramco “could become a future target” of the Houthis if Riyadh does not lift its own blockade on Houthi-controlled ports.

The international oil benchmark Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time in May, in what analysts said could have an even greater impact on the global economy.

“Much of the world’s spare production capacity has already been used, while strategic and commercial oil inventories are lower than when the war began, leaving the market with fewer buffers against a prolonged supply disruption,” said Janiv Shah, vice president of the Rystad Energy consultancy.

The Senate was also expected to vote on War Powers resolution, in largely symbolic move attempting to reign in Trump.

Four Republicans in the United States House of Representatives have again joined Democrats in voting to constrain President Donald Trump’s power to wage war against Iran.

The resolution passed on Thursday, nearly a week after three US military personnel were killed by an Iranian attack on a base in Jordan, with a 214-208 vote. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said Democrats will also force a War Powers vote in the Senate on Thursday.

Both the House and Senate had previously passed a resolution in June that called on Trump to seek congressional approval before launching further attacks. However, because the resolution was passed as a so-called “concurrent resolution”, it was not sent to Trump’s desk.

Even if the measure had been passed as a joint resolution, requiring it to be sent to Trump for approval, the president could veto it. Overriding such a veto requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers.

Democrats have said the latest resolution sends an important message that lawmakers oppose Trump’s approach to the war, which has re-escalated after a ceasefire broke down in early July.

Both the US and Iran have traded 12 days of consecutive attacks, with some analysts warning an even greater US escalation may be on the horizon, as Trump has repeatedly threatened attacks on civilian infrastructure and a possible ground invasion.

“This is a vote that requires us to find the strength to do what is right for the American people, and to send the clearest, even stronger message to this president of the United States that the United States Congress, the House of Representatives, is reasserting our authority over war,” Representative Pramila Jayapal said from the House floor on Wednesday.

“This war must end,” she said.

Under the US Constitution, only Congress can declare war, something it has not done since World War II, although presidents can commit forces in instances of pressing self-defence.

Trump has argued that the culmination of Iran’s actions since 1979 represents such an imminent threat, a claim many constitutional law experts have rejected.

Under the 1973 War Powers Act, presidents must receive congressional approval within 60 days of committing troops. While the US-Israel war with Iran began on February 28, the Trump administration claimed that hostilities had “terminated” following a temporary pause in fighting reached in April.

War powers experts and some members of Congress have said the attempted workaround flouts the law. The administration again notified Congress that fighting had resumed before the most recent round of attacks.

In a statement on Thursday, David Janovsky, acting director of The Constitution Project at the Project On Government Oversight (POGO), said the House vote “reaffirmed what people across the country have been saying all along: We want no part in an illegal war”.

“Contrary to the administration’s claims, the latest hostilities are not a new war. We’re now months past the constitutional deadline for the administration to end this unauthorised war,” he said.

He also noted that the House on Tuesday approved a sprawling $1.15 trillion defence bill that includes tens of billions more in funding for the war. The Senate has not yet voted on the package.

“If Congress is serious about bringing an end to this prolonged conflict, it must also refuse the administration’s request to fund it,” he said.

The conflict in Yemen has entered a new chapter with a declaration by the Houthis that they are imposing a maritime siege on all shipping to Saudi Arabia.

The Yemeni rebel group, also known as Ansar Allah (or supporters of God), has attacked a number of Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.

This development has placed the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the strategic waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean, at the heart of the war between the United States and Iran, and amplifies pressure on global trade routes.

The Iranian-backed Houthis, who seized Yemeni capital Sanaa in 2014, have threatened to close the strait, the route through which much of Europe’s energy supplies pass. It is also a key passage for imports to Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis’ decision to announce a maritime blockade cannot be separated from the turmoil created by the ongoing war between Washington and Tehran, which erupted on February 28 when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

Houthis raise stakes for Saudi’s support

On Monday, Yemen’s internationally recognised government claimed responsibility for an air strike on Sanaa airport, saying that it was a measure to prevent an Iranian plane from landing in Yemen’s Houthi-controlled capital. But the Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia for it.

The Houthis responded by firing missiles into Saudi Arabia – a key backer of the Aden-based Yemeni government – and later upped the stakes by announcing a naval blockade on the kingdom.

These developments mark a major escalation in Yemen’s civil war. Saudi Arabia, which has sought in recent years to avoid a new war on its southern borders, is facing a more complex equation with the threat shifting from land to sea, and the targeting of one of the most important alternative routes for its oil exports.

All of this raises the question: will this escalation cause a new confrontation between the Yemeni government and the Houthis? And if so, what does the balance of power look like between the Houthi and government sides after more than a decade of war? Has the balance changed enough to increase the odds of a military resolution to the conflict?

There has been talk of potential escalations in recent years, but this now seems more likely, especially since it intersects with local, regional and international events and the return of the US-Iran war.

The Yemeni government has restructured its military with a single decision-making centre, and regional messages suggest the military option has not been shelved, as was once thought.

So, will retaking Sanaa return to the table as a military objective to be thought of seriously, and what does that mean practically? And how ready are the parties, especially the Yemeni government, for battle?

The structure of government-affiliated forces

The anti-Houthi camp today comprises the National Army as the official framework of the Ministry of Defence, in addition to new formations with independent commands, such as the Giants Brigades, and the Guardians of the Republic forces in al-Makha, or Mocha, in the west.

These different groupings – all on the anti-Houthi side in the conflict – have emerged over the years due to the weakening power of the central government, the growth of independent figures, and the backing of regional countries.

The number of National Army personnel in the field is estimated at about 400,000, according to recent statements by the Defence Ministry. Its organisational structure includes Yemen’s seven military regions, but troop deployment is concentrated in Marib, Taiz and the country’s southern and eastern governorates, as a result of Houthi control over vast parts of the country’s northwest, including Sanaa.

Also backing the army are the Emergency Forces, comprising between 30,000 to 40,000 personnel, and the Homeland Shield Forces, created in 2022 with between 30,000 and 40,000 recruits, and tasked with taking over camps in Hadramout and the southern governorates in December 2025, following the defeat of separatist forces who previously controlled those areas.

Fighting late last year between the Yemeni government and affiliated forces on one side, and United Arab Emirates-backed separatists on the other, has led to changes in Yemen’s south and west.

After the defeat of the 75,000-strong separatist Southern Transitional Council, following a Saudi intervention on the side of the government and the withdrawal of the UAE from Yemen, the group’s organisational cohesion has been impacted. But they have not been disarmed, and remain in many locations in the south, with some elements absorbed – even if nominally – into government structures.

Another formerly-UAE backed force, the Tariq Saleh-led Guardians of the Republic, is estimated to number about 20,000 fighters. They are stationed primarily on the Red Sea coast and are considered among the most heavily armed formations, due to the past Emirati support.

The Giants Brigades are among the most prominent combat formations in the anti-Houthi camp, with an estimated 20,000 fighters and a presence on the Red Sea coast, in Aden, and in some southern areas.

Consequently, the total size of the forces affiliated with the government and the anti-Houthi camp is estimated at more than 500,000 personnel, albeit with a clear disparity in levels of training, discipline and institutional integration.

Quality of armament and military equipment

The types of weapons held by these forces do not differ as significantly as the level of their operation and management. The National Army relies on conventional weapons inherited from the Yemeni army pre-war, including light and medium weapons, armoured vehicles, tanks and field artillery, alongside various communication and transport capabilities.

The Homeland Shield Forces, backed by Saudi Arabia, are considered among the most relatively well-equipped modern formations. They rely on tactical vehicles, light armoured vehicles, and superior communication systems suited for rapid deployment missions and the protection of institutions.

The Emergency Forces rely on light to medium armament focused on urban operations and rapid deployment missions, more akin to a field military force with rapid intervention duties, combining a security character with combat capability.

The Giants Brigades rely on medium and heavy armament, armoured vehicles and fire support units, and they are recognised for their capability to conduct offensive ground operations compared with other forces.

As for the formations affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council, they rely on diverse weaponry, though readiness varies as a result of the organisational changes they have undergone.

In recent years, the majority of government forces have also developed their drone capabilities, both within regular units and some irregular formations. These assets are now used for reconnaissance and surveillance missions, and occasionally for limited tactical support.

Balance of power with the Houthis

Official military records in Sanaa indicate that Houthi-affiliated army units comprise more than 200,000 fighters and can also mobilise tens of thousands of members from their volunteer Popular Committees for rapid intervention and support.

However, these figures, much like the military rosters in the government camp, may not accurately reflect the actual combat strength on the ground due to the inclusion of reserve or inactive names in registries.

Although government-affiliated forces may possess more manpower, the balance of power in Yemen is not determined solely by numbers.

Despite sustaining significant damage to its forces and assets from US and Israeli strikes over the past few years, the Houthi side benefits from a more centralised command structure and possesses experience in managing asymmetric warfare.

This is in addition to possessing missile, drone and maritime threat capabilities that have proven their impact in the Red Sea and the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait. It appears that the military balance in Yemen is more a balance of organisational and war management rather than a balance of weaponry and numbers.

Readiness of government forces for a major battle

Indicators suggest government forces are capable of engaging in defensive battles, holding territory or managing extensive security deployments. However, they face significant challenges should they consider launching a large-scale offensive.

The most prominent of these challenges was the multiplicity of military decision-making centres – before Saudi Arabia assumed control of this decision-making following the UAE’s withdrawal – and the varying levels of training and discipline, compounded by the difficulty of operational coordination.

Geography is also a factor, as the Houthis’ control over the mountainous northwest grants them a defensive advantage, whereas government forces are dispersed across multiple fronts, limiting their ability to mobilise at a decisive point.

The scenario of entering Sanaa

So far, there are no clear public indications that any international power, including the US, has adopted a declared plan to support a large-scale military operation to take Sanaa.

Although Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have elevated the level of international interest in the Yemeni file, the international strategy has been focused on degrading Houthi capabilities related to the sea and smuggling, rather than on a ground offensive. However, reports have emerged from sources within the Yemeni state regarding a possibility of waging a war against the Houthis with US support.

If an operation towards Sanaa is considered, its success would require complex conditions, most notably unifying the government’s military command, providing broad domestic and regional political cover, and ensuring the ability to manage the city after seizing control of it. Some of these conditions may have already been met.

Has Saudi Arabia provided cover to confront the Houthis?

The Yemeni government’s military decision-making is largely tied to Saudi political and military support, and any broad move against the Houthis remains contingent upon Riyadh. But Riyadh has preferred to focus on protecting the kingdom’s southern borders, securing shipping lanes and preventing the expansion of the Houthi threat deep into Saudi territory.

It seems that Saudi strategy has previously leaned towards managing the conflict rather than resolving it, by combining limited military pressure, diplomatic moves and de-escalation tracks to reduce the security and economic costs of the war.

The Saudi position may have shifted recently in light of international and regional events, particularly concerning the security of navigation in the Red Sea. Riyadh may be pushed to re-evaluate its options regarding the Yemeni file, and the one currently on the table may be a military one.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran will continue to ‘pay the price’ for what he said was the failure to stick to agreements, telling reporters that President Trump’s policy is ‘a head for an eye’.

The United States continued to hit Iran for a 12th consecutive night early on Thursday, and Iran retaliated, striking targets across the Gulf, particularly in Kuwait and Jordan.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday that an explosion set a tanker ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz after it attempted to navigate the southern route off the coast of Oman.

Here is a recap of what happened on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Where did the US attack Iran?

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said at 02:30 GMT on Thursday that it concluded the latest round of strikes against Iran.

It targeted Iranian military targets, including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air defence assets, CENTCOM said, without specifying what areas in Iran were struck.

A local official told the Mehr news agency that US missiles struck the area around a passenger terminal in Shalamcheh, a western city near the Iraqi border. Two people were killed in the attack, the deputy governor of Iran’s Khuzestan province told the state broadcaster IRIB on Thursday. Local media also reported that 11 people were injured.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Assidi reported from Iranian capital Tehran that overnight strikes targeted at least three cities in the southwestern province of Khuzestan. This included the city of Ramshir, where an asphalt facility was reported to have been targeted.

In Hormozgan province, explosions were heard in the city of Sirik, which overlooks the Strait of Hormuz, Assidi reported.

He added that the governor confirmed an overnight attack in Bushehr on a power substation near the city’s nuclear power plant. This resulted in a few hours of power outage in the city.

IRIB also reported that explosions were heard in Iran’s Jask.

The Tasnim news agency reported that a US missile hit a location on the outskirts of the city of Andimeshk.

Two naval search and rescue vessels were hit and seriously damaged in a US attack on Iran’s Hormozgan, the ISNA news agency reported, citing the province’s Ports and Maritime Administration.

Where did Iran hit back?

Kuwait

The IRGC claimed attacks on US assets in Kuwait on Thursday.

It said it had “attacked and destroyed a large warehouse of military equipment, a Patriot missile defence system, and a hangar of American MQ9 drones” at Ali Al Salem airbase.

Addressing the Kuwaiti people, the IRGC insisted that it was the US, not Iran, that had “violated your territorial integrity and sovereignty”.

It said its attacks were aimed at US bases, territory it described as beyond the control of Kuwait’s own border guards.

“So it is America that has violated your territorial integrity and sovereignty, not us. We are attacking lands occupied by the American army, an army that knows nothing but crime,” the IRGC said.

Jordan

Later on Thursday, the IRGC claimed attacks on US assets in Jordan, saying it had “destroyed a radar of the American THAAD missile defence system with lightning strikes”.

“A Patriot system and a C-RAM radar were also targeted and destroyed, and the fuel tanks of the American base were set on fire,” it said.

The IRGC added that “a large helicopter equipment warehouse and a helicopter repair and maintenance shed were also set on fire and destroyed”.

Addressing the Jordanian people, it insisted that its actions did not violate Jordanian sovereignty, arguing that the US military presence infringes on local authority and that targeting US forces was a legal and necessary response.

What happened in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?

The IRGC said an explosion set a tanker on fire in the Strait of Hormuz.

In a statement carried by Iranian media, it said two other vessels quickly turned back following the explosion.

The IRGC claimed the three ships were acting under US orders and had “intended to pass through the mine-laid route south of the Strait of Hormuz”.

“The powerful IRGC Navy emphasises that the Strait of Hormuz is under our control and that as long as America’s evil deeds in the region continue, it is completely closed and no oil tanker will enter or exit [the strait],” it warned.

“Any ship that is deceived by America and intends to pass through without coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran will suffer the same fate.”

The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre said a ship was targeted 70 nautical miles (130km) off the Saudi coast, causing a fire on board. There was no mention of casualties among the crew.

The Houthis, meanwhile, claimed a major operation against two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, called the Encelia and the Layla. The Saudi SPA news agency confirmed the Encelia was hit.

The Houthis said they targeted those two tankers with cruise and ballistic missiles as well as drones, causing huge balls of fire and devastation.

The Houthis framed the attack as part of a tit-for-tat campaign against Saudi Arabia. They are calling it a “siege-for-siege”. They said it has been 12 years since Saudi Arabia has been imposing a siege on the Yemeni people, and that it is now time for Yemen and the Houthis to respond in kind. Riyadh has rejected Houthi claims that it had besieged Yemen.