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Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani has called on states to respect sovereignty as a condition for security in the Middle East, warning against “cycles of escalation” after “an earthquake” caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The region needs a “framework in which sovereignty is respected” and no state can pose a “threat to another”, Sheikh Mohammed said on Sunday at the opening of the Qatar Economic Forum’s UN General Assembly-adjacent event in New York City.

Sheikh Mohammed – who is also Qatar’s foreign minister – described the economic fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran as “an earthquake” with “its shock waves” reaching far beyond the borders of the Middle East, “challenging assumptions about security and stability”.

“During the crisis, almost every conversation began with security and de-escalation, then turn[ed] to energy supplies, shipping routes, and with our investments, plans will continue. These were different expressions of the same question. When so much is being disrupted, what can still be relied upon?”

He said that Qatar has weathered the test to the “foundations” of the country’s economy and security, but acknowledged that the ongoing conflict in the region is having an impact.

“Permanent security cannot be built through arrangements that leave any state permanently exposed to insecurity,” Sheikh Mohammed said. “We must address the sources of tensions and build confidence.”

Reporting from New York, Al Jazeera’s Kristen Saloomey said that message “no doubt will be repeated” when Gulf leaders meet US President Donald Trump on Tuesday during the UN General Assembly.

Qatar’s $38bn domestic investments

The PM also outlined a domestic shift in Qatar’s investment strategy by pledging more than $38bn in spending on Qatari infrastructure over the next five years.

“That’s meant to attract private investors and send a message of Qatar’s resilience,” Saloomey said, while the PM is nonetheless acknowledging that the ongoing conflict is “having an impact on the region”.

The UNGA starts on Monday and ends on Friday.

The situation in the Middle East and its global ramifications are expected to be high on the agenda during speeches and diplomacy.

Also on Sunday, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Majed Al-Ansari, told US media in New York that the mediation efforts by his government are ongoing to restart talks between Tehran and Washington to end the US-Israel war on Iran.

Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei has laid out Tehran’s latest set of conditions to end its war with the United States.

In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera on Saturday, Rezaei said that Tehran has conveyed its conditions to the US via Qatari mediators, but added that Tehran was more battle-hardened now than in the first 40 days of the war, which began in late February following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

“We will confront America with greater force, and with more numerous and more painful strikes,” said Rezaei.

While full-scale fighting has been paused for months, the two sides are nowhere close to peace. A June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran expired last month. Since then, attacks have risen, especially in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed, while the US maintains a blockade of Iran’s southern ports.

The escalating attacks on oil tankers attempting to pass through the strait and the effective Houthi control of the Red Sea route, which Saudi Arabia used to export oil, have caused oil prices to cross the $100 mark in recent weeks.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, described Rezaei’s remarks as part of the “two-sided, twofold message” Iran has maintained throughout the conflict – combining openness to diplomacy with continued preparations for war”.

So what are Iran’s latest conditions, and do they differ from the June MoU?

What are the Iranian conditions to end the war?

Here is what Rezaei told Al Jazeera:

• An end to the war on all fronts, including, in particular, Lebanon.
• The release of its frozen funds that run into billions of US dollars.
• An end to the naval blockade on Iranian ports.
• An end to US interference in Iran’s internal affairs.
• An end to US cooperation with “the opponents of our revolution”.
• An end to all US attacks on Iranian territory.

“It is in Washington’s interest to accept these conditions. Trump’s threats will not achieve any results. We are prepared for a decisive war,” said the security chief.

On Sunday morning, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reiterated Tehran’s stance on the Strait of Hormuz, saying the critical waterway will remain closed until the US fulfils its commitments.

“Until these conditions are met, the legitimate rights of the Iranian nation are recognised, and American commitments are fulfilled, there will be no opening for a return to the previous state of negotiations or for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ghalibaf.

What is different to the June MoU?

Iran’s latest set of conditions bears similarities to its demands under the MoU deal signed in June. That agreement also included an end to the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon; respect for each side’s sovereignty and not meddling in internal affairs; an end to the naval blockade by both sides; and the release of Iran’s frozen funds.

The MoU also called for a $300bn US-backed reconstruction plan, while the two sides also agreed that Iran would not procure or develop nuclear weapons and that Tehran would open the Strait of Hormuz for the safe passage of vessels.

It also required the US to issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil and other services, no new sanctions on Iran, and no deployment of additional US forces in the region.

In the interview, Rezaei did not mention war reparations from the US as Tehran has been demanding previously.

While there is little genuinely new in the substance of Iranian demands, what has changed is the timing and the channel through which it was delivered, said Adel Abdel Ghafar, a senior fellow focusing on the Middle East at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

“With the Islamabad MoU dead and … Rezaei delivering the conditions through Qatar, Iran is putting the onus back on Washington and doing it publicly, for maximum effect,” Abdel Ghafar told Al Jazeera.

Both sides are in a stalemate, he explained, with the US able to sustain the naval blockade and hold air superiority but unable to compel capitulation from Iran.

Iran, meanwhile, cannot break the blockade but “keeps enough asymmetric leverage to make things difficult for everyone”, he said.

“Basically Iran is betting [on the] war’s unpopularity and [that the] US midterms [will] shift things in its favour, so it’s going public with demands and putting the ball in Trump’s court.”

Rezaei, in his interview with Al Jazeera, rejected the US accusation that Tehran violated the MoU by striking an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that Iran’s actions came only after US attacks on Bandar Abbas and an Iranian surveillance platform there.

He said any agreement, including the MoU, required recourse to a dispute-resolution committee agreed between Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, and US Vice President JD Vance, which Washington unilaterally withdrew from.

What did Rezaei say on Iran’s nuclear progamme, Yemen and others?

On the nuclear programme, Rezaei said Iran could have withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty following attacks by the US and Israel – something that Tehran would not rule out in the future.

“We were indeed threatened, but we have not withdrawn from the treaty to this day,” he said.

For now, however, the country continues to abide by a fatwa (decree) from the former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei prohibiting nuclear weapons, said the security chief.

“But we do not know what will happen in the future,” he said, citing further sanctions or a UN Security Council referral of Iran’s nuclear file as potential future pressure.

On the intensifying war in Yemen, Rezaei denied any Iranian involvement, adding that it could offer mediation between the warring sides. He also said Tehran was not exploiting the conflict “for its own political ends”.

“We are fully prepared to help achieve peace between Yemen and Saudi Arabia,” said Rezaei.

The security chief also dismissed speculation, including inside Iran, that it could close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to pressure global energy markets, stating the waterway “is a Yemeni matter” relating to the Houthi movement, not Iran.

On the Strait of Hormuz, Rezaei said Tehran came within “a short step” of announcing a deal with Oman to manage it, but it may require regional endorsement before being made public.

What has been the US response?

The US has not yet responded to Iran’s new conditions. Rezaei said Iran is “waiting for the Americans to accept and implement” them.

The US did, however, on Saturday warn its citizens in Iraq, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Lebanon, Kuwait and Jordan to exercise “heightened vigilance”, stating that “the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation”.

US President Donald Trump also cut his weekend short from his trip to Camp David, returning to Washington, DC on Saturday from the secluded presidential complex in rural Maryland, the White House said. No explanation was given for the early return, which comes as fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has escalated.

According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer at King’s College London, Trump may take Iran’s memo seriously – in an effort to end the war before the US midterm elections in November.

“Trump very much wants a deal to wind up the war before the midterms,” Pinfold told Al Jazeera.

“The US’s Gulf allies will also likely push for a renewal of talks. But it doesn’t mean there still aren’t significant substantive gaps between the parties, which make a comprehensive deal unlikely anytime soon.”

David Des Roches, a former Pentagon director of Arabian Peninsula affairs, however, told Al Jazeera that Washington was unlikely to see Iran’s terms as a serious opening.

“At first glance, probably not serious; they would be viewed as surrender,” Des Roches said.

But he pointed to Iran’s apparent abandonment of war reparations as a sign of movement.

Iran’s top security official says Tehran has sent its conditions for ending war to the US via Qatari mediators.

Hundreds of thousands of Iranians have marched in a government-organised show of defiance in Tehran, pledging their readiness to take up arms.

The Iranian government showcased a newly formed volunteer force at the rally on Friday. It will receive limited military and emergency response training to serve as an additional layer of security for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia.

Volunteers rallied through downtown Tehran in combat uniforms, some carrying flags and weapons, while the government displayed drones, anti-aircraft batteries and other weaponry.

Iranian authorities said 313,000 people joined the event in the capital. Attendance figures could not be independently verified.

Tehran’s IRGC chief, Hassan Hassanzadeh, told the state broadcaster IRIB that over 600,000 people had registered to participate in the voluntary Janfada-ye-Iran campaign. That roughly translates to “Those who sacrifice their lives for Iran”, with over one million expected to take part in the training.

Senior Iranian leaders at the rally included President Masoud Pezeshkian and Basij head, Hossein Taeb.

Taeb told participants that the volunteers would be ready for “full-fledged defence” and would be a “nightmare” for Iran’s enemies.

A broader strategy

Iranian authorities say mobilising the new volunteer force is part of a broader defence strategy.

“The Islamic Republic has mobilised these people to show that they are united, that they have solidarity and that their people are ready to give anything for the country,” said Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu, reporting from the rally.

Women and teenagers have also registered with the volunteer units, she added.

“I want to show the world that Iran is strong and united. We don’t want war, but we’re ready to defend our country to the very end,” one of the volunteers, Bahera, told our reporter.

Another volunteer, wearing a combat uniform and carrying a rifle, said: “This is our homeland and we won’t let others decide its future”.

President Pezeshkian said in a speech that the rally was a show of solidarity, Koseoglu noted.

“This is not only a message to countries like the US and Israel, which are attacking Iran, but also to the Islamic Republic that we are ready for any crisis.”

Economy and mobilisation

Friday’s rally happened as the Iranian economy struggles under the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and new US sanctions.

Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, condemned the “brutal economic war, deliberately designed to inflict maximum pain and suffering on every Iranian citizen”.

As the latest addition to its economic pressure campaign, the US administration on Thursday went after digital currency networks that it says are illegally providing sanctioned Iranian entities with access to the international financial system.

The struggling economy was a key driver for protests last December that quickly turned into a challenge to the political system in place since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Iran said about 3,000 people were killed in the protests, but activists say the state crackdown killed over 7,000.

However, the war launched in late February by US-Israeli strikes has since allowed the authorities to regain the initiative by presenting themselves as a bulwark against the country’s enemies.

The volunteer mobilisation campaign started in early April, at the height of US-Israeli attacks.

According to the authorities, more than 30 million people registered for a potential call-up, about a third of the population of 86 million.

Report says ‘reasonable grounds’ US was behind the deadly strike against a school in Minab in February.

The mission also said Iranian authorities committed crimes against humanity during their crackdown on protests in late 2025 and early this year.

The United States likely committed “war crimes” in Iran when it launched a pair of air strikes that killed at least 178 civilians, including women and children, a United Nations fact-finding mission has found.

The report by the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran on Thursday also accused Iran of human rights violations and crimes against humanity during protests last year and in early 2026.

The mission referred to the US attack on Shajareh Tayyebeh Primary School in Minab, which killed over 150 people – including approximately 120 children – on February 28, when the US and Israel launched their war against Iran.

The mission also referred to the US air strike on a “clearly identifiable” sports complex and residential area in Lamerd the same day, where precision strike missiles dispersed clouds of tungsten pellets, killing 22 civilian men and women.

The findings, to be submitted to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, examined the US’s conduct during the Iran war and the Iranian government’s response to nationwide unrest that began in late December.

US air strikes against civilians

The attack on the school in Minab was conducted with the use of Tomahawk missiles.

“The Mission concluded that when identifying and directing its attack against the primary school in Minab, whose civilian nature is apparent, the US failed in its obligation to do everything feasible to verify that it was a military objective,” the report stated.

The report’s authors said that photographs and videos depicting the school before and after the strike showed “readily identifiable features” that it was associated with an educational facility for young children.

“These included child-oriented murals painted on exterior walls, school signage, and playground areas,” said the UN report.

“According to public reporting, satellite imagery of the school before the strike also appears to show human figures, readily identifiable as children, gathered in its courtyard.”

Following the strike, state-affiliated media showed widespread destruction at the site, including parents holding the body parts of their children, and bloodied backpacks and schoolbooks.

“Several families lost more than one child, reflecting the devastating impact of the attack on families and the wider community,” the report said.

In June, US President Donald Trump said that “nobody” purposefully attacked a girls’ school in Iran in February, citing an investigation into the incident, for which the Pentagon has not yet published any findings.

Regarding the strike in Lamerd, the mission similarly found that the sports centre attacked was “visibly separate” from an adjacent compound belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The US Central Command said in a statement in March that US forces did not launch any strikes into the city of Lamerd on that day.

Iran protests

The UN mission additionally accused Iran of repressing demonstrators during the country’s 2025-2026 protests through an internet shutdown, unlawful killings, torture, arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances and severe restrictions on freedom of expression.

It also stated that the number of deaths and injuries by state forces is much higher than the government’s reported toll – which says 3,038 people were killed and 25,000 people injured – but could not verify exact numbers.

Tehran claims the majority of deaths occurred due to “rioters” during the protests backed by exiled opponents and the US and Israel.

The UN fact-finding mission urged Iran and the US to immediately end hostilities, provide reparations to victims, and seek permanent peace through diplomatic means.

Iran’s missiles and drones have downed dozens of US aircraft, damaged or destroyed hundreds of the United States’ buildings at its bases in the Middle East, and drained its inventories of military equipment worth billions of dollars, the Pentagon conceded earlier this week.

On Wednesday, Tehran unleashed another unlikely weapon in its war against the US: a maths equation.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has also been a lead negotiator during talks between Tehran and Washington at different stages during the past six months, typed out a version of the Taylor equation, a formula used by central banks to determine interest rates, in a post on X loaded with a wartime message.

“Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel,” he wrote, referring to interest rate hikes and the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway Iran has effectively blocked for global shipping.

“You can’t 25bp [basis points] a chokepoint,” he added, seemingly again referring to the strait. “It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it.”

Hours after Ghalibaf’s post, the US Federal Reserve did raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.

Early in the war, which was launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, Ghalibaf frequently used financial arguments to mock how the conflict was being conducted by the administration of US President Donald Trump, to point to Iran’s ability to hurt Washington economically unless it changed its approach.

Now he’s turned to maths.

“This is a spectacular bit of agitprop from Iran, a country which, if nothing else in 2026, has demonstrated an impressive ability to needle its US opponent,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Al Jazeera.

But what exactly is Ghalibaf trying to say? What is the Taylor equation, has the Iran war influenced the US interest rate, and does Tehran “set it”, as the parliament speaker has suggested?

What is the Taylor equation that Ghalibaf cited?

The rule is a formula economists use to estimate where a central bank should set interest rates based on inflation and the strength of the economy.

Developed by economist John Taylor in the early 1990s, the rule links the US federal funds rate to inflation and the “output gap” – the difference between actual economic output and its potential.

In its simplest form, the formula is:

Interest rate = inflation + 0.5(output gap) + 0.5(inflation − 2%) + 2%.

This means the recommended interest rate rises when inflation moves above the 2 percent target or when economic output exceeds its potential. It falls when inflation weakens or the economy operates below potential.

However, the equation is a benchmark, not a set rule that is strictly followed. Policymakers at the US Federal Reserve weigh other economic factors when setting interest rates.

Is the Iran war a factor in the US interest rate hike?

Trump’s tariffs, the energy shock following the US-Israeli war with Iran, and heavy investment associated with the artificial intelligence boom, taken together, have kept inflationary pressures strong, experts say.

On Wednesday, when the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, it was the first increase in three years.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, in his speech following the rate hike, said renewed fighting between the US and Iran, which has pushed up petrol prices, helped convince Fed officials to support higher rates.

“There’s no hiding from hot spots around the world,” Warsh said.

IG Group’s Beauchamp said, “The Iran war, indirectly, is a huge driver of last night’s hike, though no one wants to admit it.”

“The energy spike has combined with the rise in yields to drive the Fed into a corner with no way out,” he said.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at the Wealth Club, said there is “no denying” that Iran’s retaliatory action against the US and its allies across the Gulf region has “intensified concerns about energy supplies and led to hotter inflation forecasts”.

“The ongoing geopolitical turmoil and elevated crude prices certainly were key issues behind the Fed’s decision to hike rates,” she said.

Is Iran ‘setting’ the US interest rate?

In short, no.

Wealth Club’s Streeter cautioned that while the war in the Middle East and rising oil prices were certainly an element in the Fed’s decision, they weren’t the “only factors at play”.

“The spending might of AI hyperscalers has also pulsed through the veins of the economy, with strong capital investment and resilient domestic demand adding to inflationary pressures, so policymakers will have been looking at the whole picture,” she noted.

“So, while Tehran has arguably had an influence on some of the forces feeding into US monetary policy, particularly through the impact of the conflict on oil supplies and prices, it is not ‘setting’ US interest rates.”

Streeter said the US Federal Reserve was responding to a much broader set of economic conditions.

“Iran’s actions have affected the inflation outlook, but the decision on where to set interest rates ultimately rests with the Federal Reserve, and there are plenty of other data points policymakers use,” she noted.

What’s behind Ghalibaf’s maths mocking?

In March, Iran’s parliamentary speaker had repeatedly used social media to comment on markets and energy prices, including mocking efforts by the Trump administration to influence oil futures and arguing that financial manoeuvring could not create “actual fuel” at petrol stations.

Last month, Ghalibaf posted a graphic bearing the phrase “Make America Hungry Again” – a play on Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again” – together with statistics on food insecurity and hunger in the US.

“You can’t cover up defeats with false claims,” he said.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says Iran does not interfere in Yemeni affairs.

Iran says a planned meeting with officials from Gulf states to discuss the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed due to “events unfolding in Yemen”.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, addressing a news conference on Monday, said Oman and Iran “have taken a joint decision aimed at arriving at a responsible” approach to the management of the strait.

He said the meeting, scheduled to take place in Oman, would have been an “opportunity to demonstrate the significance of these decisions”.

“Had this meeting took place, it would have been a very suitable opportunity [to discuss the new policy]. I do not believe any responsible country would accept in any shape, way, or form to be dictated to or be subjected to pressure from any outside forces,” he said.

The Strait of Hormuz, which falls in Iran and Oman’s territorial waters, has been effectively blocked by Tehran amid the US-Israel war on the country.

Baghaei said Iran has “no relations whatsoever with what is unfolding in Yemen”, adding Tehran does not interfere in its affairs. He added that Saudi Arabia requested the postponement of the meeting.

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen have escalated since July, when Houthis, who control large parts of Yemen, declared a naval blockade on their northwestern neighbour. Clashes escalated last week as Houthis seized the port of Mocha, tightening their control over the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

Attacks on shipping

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Monday that its forces had intercepted and destroyed an advanced MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz.

In a statement carried by the semi-official Tasnim news agency, the IRGC said it intercepted the drone using a new aerospace defence system.

Regarding an attack on an Iranian commercial vessel on Sunday that killed one person, Baghaei said two Pakistani citizens working on board were also injured.

The United States and Israel “continue to target security” in the Gulf, he added.

Sanaa, Yemen – The United Nations-recognised Yemeni government and the Houthi group have been using warplanes, missiles, drones and other weapons as they engage in intense fighting on multiple fronts in the country’s north, west and central regions.

At least 194 people have been killed and 880 others wounded in the past two weeks of fighting in parts of Taiz, the western coast, al-Jawf, Marib and Dhalea, according to aid agencies.

Iran-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (supporters of God), have intensified attacks on the coastal district of al-Makha (Mocha) located on the western coast, among others, to gain a foothold in the Red Sea – a vital shipping lane.

On the other hand, government forces have been battling to expand in Taiz and boost their control of Marib, an oil-producing region in the north.

Fighting has also been raging in the al-Jawf governorate bordering Saudi Arabia and Dhalea, which connects the Houthi-controlled north to the country’s south under the internationally recognised government.

Experts say gains or losses on any of these strategically important fronts could have significant consequences for either side.

Taiz and western coast fronts

“The hills and mountainous areas of Taiz and the western coast are key targets for the Houthis, who have repeatedly attempted to advance there,” Yazeed al-Jeddawy, the research manager at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, said.

“The Houthis are trying to seize commanding terrains, cut supply routes between the coastal Mocha district and Taiz, and prevent government troops on the western coast from linking up with the Taiz Military Axis,” said al-Jeddawy.

In Taiz and along the western coast, al-Jeddawy says, the immediate contest is over the heights and roads connecting Taiz to al-Makha.

Situated roughly 60km (37 miles) from the Bab al-Mandeb strait, al-Makha enjoys a highly strategic position on the Red Sea. For a month now, the Houthis have launched missile and drone attacks on the city, causing massive damage to its port facilities and killing and injuring several civilians.

Recently, the group has also attempted to extend its ground operations towards al-Makha city.

“The Houthis seem intent on tightening their hold around [al-Makha] and moving closer to the Dhubab–Bab al-Mandeb area. A substantial advance would strengthen their position near the southern entrance to the Red Sea and give them greater leverage over international shipping,” he added.

Fuad Mussed, a Yemeni political analyst and author, told Al Jazeera that the strategic importance of the western coast and Taiz fronts stems from their proximity to Bab al-Mandeb, a chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

“The Houthis seek to move closer to this vital waterway to threaten maritime traffic. Such a move aims to keep the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb under the influence of Iran and use them as leverage against regional and international powers. This is a strategy Tehran has been pursuing for years,” Mussed said.

Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a global oil chokepoint, to use it as leverage in the war against the United States. It has also warned that its allies could shut shipping via Bab al-Mandeb. Iran also attacked Saudi Arabia’s pipeline used to export oil from the Red Sea.

In July, the Houthis declared a blockade against Saudi vessels transiting through the Red Sea – an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.

Marib and al-Jawf fronts

Over the past few weeks, pro-government forces have attacked Houthi-held territories in Marib and al-Jawf, facing further retaliation from the Houthis.

Saddam al-Huraibi, a Yemeni political commentator, said the Marib front is fateful for both sides.

“Marib is a government stronghold in north Yemen. So, a Houthi expansion in Marib would threaten government presence and weaken its leverage in the north. That is why pro-government troops are ready to fight tooth and nail on this front line,” al-Huraibi told Al Jazeera.

For the Houthis, the takeover of Marib will deepen the group’s authority and step towards controlling the oil and gas infrastructure. The Iran-backed group captured vast swaths of northern Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, but Marib has remained in government hands since.

“Dominating Marib’s oil and gas resources has been a Houthi goal for over a decade. Without facing a crushing defeat in Marib, they would keep fighting to achieve that goal,” al-Huraibi said.

Adjacent to Marib, al-Jawf is also a hub of tense fighting between the Houthis and government forces. A government gain there would lay the groundwork for further advances, while a strong Houthi defence could undermine government forces’ morale and prompt them to retreat.

“Government-aligned forces have lately focused much of their offensive effort on al-Jawf. Government gains in al-Jawf would ease the threat to Marib while requiring the Houthis to defend a much broader area,” al-Huraibi said.

Al-Jeddawy said government gains could open routes towards the north – Saada, Amran or Houthi positions north of Marib.

The Houthis have carried out attacks in Saudi Arabia, including energy facilities in the country’s south. They have also accused Saudi Arabia of launching multiple attacks in al-Jawf, al-Bayda, Marib and Taiz provinces in support of government forces.

The Dhalea front

Fighting on the Dhalea front, a strategic gateway between Houthi-held territory and the southern governorates, has intensified in recent weeks.

Fighting there did not fully stop during the relative calm, which began in April 2022 following the UN-brokered ceasefire.

A Houthi advance there could open a route for their fighters to reach other southern territories. On the other hand, a Houthi setback would encourage government forces to push towards Ibb, controlled by the group.

“[Houthi] advances in Dhalea could expose the southern hinterland, while [government advances] could threaten Houthi positions and supply routes towards Ibb, al-Bayda and, farther north, Sanaa,” al-Jeddawy noted.

With the escalating fighting, the Houthis face pressure on several fronts, but the group has been readying for a range of scenarios, Khaled Ghorab, a pro-Houthi general, said.

“The [Houthi] Yemeni armed forces were never caught off guard by the prospect of escalation; rather, they worked to build and develop their own military capabilities based on tactical combat plans designed to counter a comprehensive, sustained attack launched simultaneously from land, sea and air,” he said.

Ghorab noted that this state of readiness enables the Houthi forces to carry out a direct response to sources of the threat – whether deep within enemy territory or at sea – targeting military bases or aircraft carriers as far as the Horn of Africa.

While the warring parties compete to seize strategic positions on several front lines, the latest escalation is also closely related to the wider regional confrontation.

“Iran has an interest in keeping Yemen and the Red Sea active as sources of leverage, while parts of the government camp believe the Houthis are under growing strain and that this is an opportunity to weaken them,” al-Jeddawy, the Sanaa-based researcher, said.

“The escalation still reflects domestic military and political aims, but its timing and direction cannot be separated from the regional war,” he told Al Jazeera.