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Caracas, March 6, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The Venezuelan and US governments announced the restoration of diplomatic relations after a seven-year hiatus.

Caracas and Washington issued near-simultaneous press releases on Thursday night, though they did not specify a date for the reopening of the respective embassies and consulates.

In its statement, the Venezuelan government headed by Acting President Delcy Rodríguez expressed “trust” that the renewed ties would lead to a “mutually beneficial” relationship.

“The Bolivarian government reaffirms its disposition to advance to a new stage of constructive dialogue, based on mutual respect and cooperation,” the communiqué read.

For its part, the US State Department declared that the diplomatic reengagement would “facilitate our joint efforts to promote stability, support economic recovery, and advance political reconciliation in Venezuela.”

“Our engagement is focused on helping the Venezuelan people move forward through a phased process that creates the conditions for a peaceful transition to a democratically elected government,” the statement read.

The US and Venezuela engaged in a fast diplomatic rapprochement following the January 3 US military strikes and kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores. Maduro and Flores have pleaded not guilty to charges including drug trafficking conspiracy, and their next hearing is scheduled for March 26. Despite repeated “narcoterrorism” accusations, US officials have not presented evidence of the involvement of Venezuelan high-ranking officials in narcotics activities, while specialized reports have consistently found the Caribbean nation to play a marginal role in global drug trafficking.

In the past two months, several senior White House officials have been hosted by Acting President Rodríguez, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and most recently Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. US Southern Command chief Francis Donovan likewise met with Venezuelan leaders, while Chargé d’Affaires Laura Dogu has been in the country since early February. 

Dogu has been slated to take over as ambassador, while Félix Plasencia is set to become Venezuela’s top diplomat in the US.

Despite the January 3 bombings and presidential kidnapping, Rodríguez and other officials have defended the diplomatic engagement with Washington. The rapprochement has also seen Venezuelan authorities vow to “adapt legislation” to attract US corporate investment. 

The National Assembly enacted a pro-business overhaul of the Hydrocarbon Law in late January, with the US Treasury subsequently issuing licenses allowing an expanded presence from Western energy conglomerates while imposing control over export revenues.

The Maduro government severed ties with Washington in 2019 after the first Trump administration recognized the self-proclaimed “interim government” led by Juan Guaidó as the country’s legitimate authority.

The recognition saw Guaidó and other opposition leaders take control of Venezuelan assets abroad, including US-based refiner CITGO, with their management facing accusations of widespread malfeasance and corruption. 

After Guaidó was driven out by other US-backed factions in January 2023, the Biden administration transferred the recognition to the former opposition-majority National Assembly whose term had run out in 2021. Despite being abroad and exercising no activity, the former deputies have continued to collect salaries drawn from frozen Venezuelan state assets.

US authorities have not clarified whether the Venezuelan government will regain access to US-based bank accounts and other assets, since several state entities, including oil company PDVSA and the Central Bank, remain under Treasury sanctions.

The formal recognition of the acting Rodríguez administration is expected to pave the way for debt renegotiation. With sanctions barring the country from maintaining its debt service, liabilities ballooned to an estimated US $170 billion.

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Fusagasugá, Colombia.

People are tracking a shepherd who has been walking with his herd for days across Lebanon, fleeing Israeli strikes in the south of the country.

The licence follows a push from US President Donald Trump to open Venezuela’s resource sector to international investment.

The United States government has authorised a limited licence for the export of Venezuelan gold, following a high-level meeting to expand mining in the country.

On Friday, a notice appeared on the US Department of the Treasury’s website announcing the licence.

It allows Venezuela’s state-run mining company Minerven and its subsidiaries to export, transport and sell Venezuelan gold to the US, within the parameters set out under US law.

Under the licence, however, no Venezuelan gold will be permitted to be exchanged with Cuba, North Korea, Iran or Russia.

The licence also requires payments to sanctioned individuals to flow through Treasury accounts known as Foreign Government Deposit Funds, the same system that has been used to store the proceeds from Venezuelan oil sales.

Minerven and other state-owned industries have faced US sanctions for years, as a penalty for the push to nationalise Venezuela’s resources under former President Hugo Chavez.

But the US has been pushing for inroads into Venezuela’s oil and mining sectors since January 3, when it launched an operation to abduct and imprison the country’s then-president, Nicolas Maduro.

The January 3 military operation has been condemned as a violation of international law, and critics argue that US President Donald Trump has since sought to exploit Venezuela’s natural resources for his country’s gain.

Trump and his allies maintain that Venezuela’s oil resources were stolen from the US, citing the expropriation of assets from US businesses in 2007.

But international law guarantees that countries have permanent sovereignty over their own natural resources, which cannot be exploited by foreign powers without consent.

So far, the government of interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez has complied with Trump’s requests to surrender oil to the US and open the country’s oil and mining sectors to foreign investment.

Just this week, Rodriguez agreed to send a mining reform law to the country’s National Assembly, following a two-day visit from Trump’s Interior Secretary Doug Burgum.

And in late January, Rodriguez signed into law a separate reform that allowed for the expansion of private investment from abroad in Venezuela’s oil sector and lowered taxes on the industry.

Venezuela’s economy has struggled under tightening US sanctions and government mismanagement, forcing millions of citizens from the South American country to flee its borders over the last decade.

Proponents of the reforms say outside investment can help revive Venezuela’s ailing economy and fund upgrades to its outdated mining infrastructure.

On Friday, Venezuela’s central bank released its first inflation statistics since November 2024, showing that inflation skyrocketed to 475 percent in 2025, when the US placed an embargo on Venezuelan oil exports.

Gold production from Venezuela in 2025 amounted to nearly 9.5 tonnes, according to the government, and the country sits on some of the largest oil deposits in the world.

Civilian onlookers out in the street filming the air-to-air engagement rapidly unfolding in the bright blue sky above them, a trail of smoke, and the low rumble of fighter jet engines. This is the latest video to have emerged from the extraordinary incident earlier this week in which a Kuwaiti Air Force F/A-18 Hornet was responsible for shooting down three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles.

As in the previous videos of the incident and its aftermath, the usual caveats apply as to the nature of its authenticity, which remains unconfirmed. However, everything points to this being genuine, and it clearly indicates a within-visual-range air-to-air engagement, likely involving a heat-seeking AIM-9 Sidewinder series air-to-air missile.

Check the video out here:

It was initially rumored that a ground-based air defense system, such as the Patriot, which is present in Kuwait, took the F-15Es out. However, the earlier video footage of one of the jets spiraling to the ground suggested it was an air-to-air engagement, based on the damage to the aircraft.

The new video is also in line with our original assessment of the likely cause of the shootdowns, namely, tail-aspect missile shots made by smaller-yield weapons. As we noted at the time, under certain circumstances, if the Hornet employed passive heat-seeking missiles (AIM-9), the F-15E pilots may not have known they were being engaged until the weapon detonated.

The video clearly shows one of the F-15Es after being hit, with part of its rear portion burning brightly, and the same aircraft in a flat spin toward the ground. You can also see the two crew members ejecting. The F/A-18 is also seen, toward the top of the frame.

For at least part of the engagement, the F/A-18 and F-15E are clearly in the same frame and are in close proximity.

An experienced former F/A-18 pilot TWZ talked to about the event and the new video concluded that the incident is, altogether, “very strange.”

“I have genuinely no idea how someone could make this mistake,” the ex-Hornet driver continued. “Unless it’s something procedural and GCI [ground-control intercept] has messed up, talked him on, and he’s seen what he wanted to see … but even that’s bordering on implausible.”

Undoubtedly, the challenge of deconfliction of friend from foe in a very complex war zone is a significant one, as we outlined previously. At the same time, the threat from Iranian aircraft was, at the time, real. Also this week, a Qatar Emiri Air Force F-15QA shot down a pair of Iranian Su-24 Fencer strike aircraft that were inbound to attack the sprawling air base at Al Udeid.

While the cause of the friendly-fire incident remains unclear, the chance to see such an aerial engagement is remarkable in itself, especially the very rare sight of a modern fighter firing one of its air-to-air missiles in an operational context.

A video shows a U.S. Air Force F-15C Eagle fighter jet destroying a towed target at very close range with one of its Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, during a live-fire exercise over the Atlantic Ocean on December 8, 2020:

F-15 Firing Training Sidewinder NATM-9M At Drone

The same former Hornet driver also explained exactly how a short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder missile would be fired from the jet in a WVR scenario:

“You’d be in air-to-air master mode and bring up the weapon using HOTAS [‘hands on throttle and stick’ controls]. You rock a castle switch that puts you in Sidewinder mode. From there, you can select your radar scan mode, again using HOTAS. Now you have a weapon looking for an infrared signature and a radar looking for a target. In a combat mode, the radar will latch/form a track almost immediately. The weapon system then cues the Sidewinder to the radar track, and so long as it’s within the weapon’s kinematic capabilities, you’ll get a SHOOT cue. The weapon then leaves on trigger press.”

“You can also just point and shoot with a Sidewinder, but then your radar isn’t giving you any info, so you risk a shot that can’t make it.”

In such a scenario, it is conceivable that the F/A-18 pilot might have accidentally launched a missile that then found its target, the same pilot agreed, but that would not explain the three friendly-fire kills.

“Once, yes. Twice, no way. Thrice?”

It is worth bearing in mind that there have been previous incidents of friendly-fire shootdowns, even when a visual ID had been conducted. This happened in 1994, when two U.S. Air Force F-15 Eagle fighters shot down two U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters over Iraq, killing 26. Perhaps the Kuwaiti pilot thought they had encountered Iranian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters, but, again, to make the same mistake three times over seems highly improbable, especially at close range.

Another fighter pilot’s analysis, seen in video below, questions whether the Kuwaiti pilot might even have gone rogue against an ally. That actually seems possible based on the evidence, but it is hard to believe.

Accident or Crime? A Kuwaiti F/A-18 Hornet Shot Down Three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles?

Ultimately, based on the latest video and the limited reports so far, it’s still far from clear how this costly incident happened. A friendly-fire kill involving a longer-range weapon would be more believable, but the within-visual-range nature of this engagement is bizarre, to say the least.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

From inside Iran to the diaspora, Iranians are deeply divided about their country’s future. With Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gone and Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former shah, waiting in the wings, what do conversations about regime change reveal about the spectrum of what Iranians really think?

In this episode: 

Episode credits:

This episode was produced by Noor Wazwaz, Marcos Bartolomé, and Catherine Nouhan, with Spencer Cline, Tuleen Barakat, Maya Hamadeh, and our host, Malika Bilal. It was edited by Alexandra Locke. 

Our sound designer is Alex Roldan. Our video editors are Hisham Abu Salah and Mohannad al-Melhem. Alexandra Locke is The Take’s executive producer. 

Connect with us:

@AJEPodcasts on X, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube

Lionel Messi has been criticised for meeting US President Donald Trump and applauding his latest brief on the Iran war at a White House event honouring the Argentinian superstar and his Inter Miami team.

A video has been released showing huge explosions near Tehran’s Azadi Tower. The US and Israel are continuing to target locations across Iran as the war enters its seventh day.

Over the past two decades, China has quietly eclipsed the United States as the dominant trading partner in parts of Latin America.

But since taking office for a second term, United States President Donald Trump has pushed to reverse Beijing’s advance.

That includes through aggressive manoeuvres directed at China’s allies in the region.

Already, the Trump administration has stripped officials in Costa Rica, Panama and Chile of their US visas, reportedly due to their ties to China.

It has also threatened to take back the Panama Canal over allegations that Chinese operatives are running the waterway. And after invading Venezuela and abducting President Nicolas Maduro, the US forced the country to halt oil exports to China.

But on Saturday, Trump is taking a different approach, welcoming Latin American leaders to his Mar-a-Lago estate for an event dubbed the “Shield of the Americas” summit.

How he plans to persuade leaders to distance themselves from one of the region’s largest economic partners remains unclear.

But experts say the high-level meeting could signal that Washington is prepared to put concrete offers on the table.

Securing meaningful commitments from Latin American leaders will take more than a photo op and vague promises, according to Francisco Urdinez, an expert on regional relations with China at Chile’s Pontifical Catholic University.

Even among Trump’s allies, Urdinez believes significant economic incentives are required.

“What they’re really hoping is that Washington backs up the political alignment with tangible economic benefits,” he said.

‘Reinforcing the Donroe Doctrine’

Already, the White House has confirmed that nearly a dozen countries will be represented at the weekend summit.

They include conservative leaders from Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Mexico and Brazil, the region’s largest economies, have been notably left out. Both are currently led by left-leaning governments.

In a post on social media, the Trump administration framed the event as a “historic meeting reinforcing the Donroe Doctrine”, the president’s plan for establishing US dominance over the Western Hemisphere.

Part of that strategy involves assembling a coalition of ideological allies in the region.

But rolling back Chinese influence in a region increasingly reliant on its economy will not be an easy feat, according to Gimena Sanchez, the Andes director at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a US-based research and advocacy group.

The US “is trying to get countries to agree that they’re not going to have China be one of their primary trading partners, and they really can’t at this point”, Sanchez said.

“For most countries, China is either their top, second or third trading partner.”

China, after all, has the second-largest economy in the world, and it has invested heavily in Latin America, including through infrastructure projects and massive loans.

The Asian giant has emerged as the top trading partner in South America in particular, with bilateral trade reaching $518bn in 2024, a record high for Beijing.

The US, however, remains the biggest outside trade force in Latin America and the Caribbean overall, due in large part to close relations with its neighbour, Mexico.

As of 2024, US imports from Latin America jumped to $661bn, and its exports were valued at $517bn.

Rather than choosing sides, though, many countries in the region are trying to strike a balance between the two powers, Sanchez explained.

Still, she added that the US cannot come empty-handed to this weekend’s negotiations.

“If the US is very boldly telling countries to cut off strengthening ties with China”, Sanchez emphasised that “the US is going to have to offer them something.”

What’s on the table?

Trump has already extended economic lifelines to Latin American governments politically aligned with his own.

In the case of Argentina, for instance, Trump announced in October a $20bn currency swap, meant to increase the value of the country’s peso.

He also increased the volume of Argentinian beef permitted to be imported into the US, shoring up the country’s agricultural sector, despite pushback from US cattle farmers.

Trump has largely tied those economic incentives to the continued leadership of political movements favourable to his own.

The $20bn swap, for instance, came ahead of a key election for Argentinian President Javier Milei’s right-wing party, which Trump supports.

Isolating China from resources in Latin America could also play to Trump’s advantage as he angles for better trade terms with Beijing.

A show of hemispheric solidarity could give Trump extra leverage as he travels to Beijing in early April to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Urdinez pointed out.

Then there’s the regional security angle. The US has expressed particular concern about China’s control of strategic infrastructure in Latin America and the critical minerals it could exploit in the region to bolster its defence and technology capabilities.

Bolivia, Argentina and Chile, for instance, are believed to hold the world’s largest deposits of lithium, a metal necessary for energy storage and rechargeable batteries.

The Trump administration referenced such threats in its national security strategy, published in December.

“Some foreign influence will be hard to reverse,” the strategy document said, blaming the “political alignments between certain Latin American governments and certain foreign actors”.

But Trump’s security platform nevertheless asserted that Latin American leaders were actively seeking alternatives to China.

“Many governments are not ideologically aligned with foreign powers but are instead attracted to doing business with them for other reasons, including low costs and fewer regulatory hurdles,” the document said.

It argued that the US could combat Chinese influence by highlighting the “hidden costs” of close ties to Beijing, including “debt traps” and espionage.

‘More aspiration than reality’

Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, believes that many Latin American countries would prefer to deepen economic engagement with the US over China.

But in many cases, that hasn’t been an option.

She pointed to Ecuador’s decision to sign a free trade agreement (FTA) with China in 2023 after it failed to negotiate a similar agreement with the US under President Joe Biden.

Some US politicians had opposed the deal as a threat to domestic industries. Others had encouraged Biden to reject it due to alleged corruption in Ecuador’s government.

Critics, though, said the resistance pushed Ecuador into closer relations with China.

“ When Ecuador signed their free trade agreement with China a couple years ago, their leader actually made quite clear that they had wanted an FTA with the US and would’ve preferred that,” said Levin.

“But the US didn’t want to negotiate such an agreement, and China did.”

As a result, Ecuador became the fifth country in Latin America to ink a free trade pact with China, after Chile, Peru, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

For Levin, the question looming over this weekend’s summit is whether the Trump administration will step up and provide alternatives to the economic engagement China has already delivered.

Options could include trade agreements, financing for new development and investments with attractive terms.

But without such offers, Urdinez, the Chilean professor, warns that Trump will face limits to his ambitions of checking China’s growth in Latin America.

“Until Washington is willing to fill the economic space it’s asking countries to vacate, the rollback strategy will remain more aspiration than reality,” said Urdinez.

Responding to a question from The War Zone at a press conference at CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, Florida, the admiral leading the war against Iran praised the Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS) kamikaze drone. Based on the Iranian Shahed-136, these weapons were used in combat for the first time just six days ago. They were fired against unspecified Iranian targets in the opening salvos of the Operation Epic Fury joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran and repeatedly since.

The War Zone has advocated for the procurement of this exact class of drone by the American military and today, Adm. Brad Cooper backed up that assessment.

“LUCAS, indispensable,” Cooper told us when we asked how effective they have been and how much they’ve helped preserve magazine depth, given their comparative low cost and faster and easier production.

America’s stockpile of offensive and defense munitions remains a concern as Epic Fury drags on, even though War Secretary Pete Hegseth, who also spoke at the press conference, downplayed it. More on that later in this story.

A Tomahawk cruise missile cost roughly between $2 million to $2.5 million a piece. Air launched cruise missiles currently in service cost over a million a piece, although work is being done to reduce that number considerably. There is still a tradeoff in warhead size, response time, and survivability, but cheaper weapons in greater quantities that can deliver a payload over hundreds of miles are badly needed as part of a arsenal mix that includes more advanced types.

“Costing approximately $35,000 per platform, LUCAS is a low-cost, scalable system that provides cutting-edge capabilities at a fraction of the cost of traditional long-range U.S. systems that can deliver similar effects,” Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a CENTCOM spokesperson, told TWZ back in December. “The drone system has an extensive range and the ability to operate beyond line of sight, providing significant capability across CENTCOM’s vast operating area.”

Moreover, the LUCAS design includes features that allow for “autonomous coordination, making them suitable for swarm tactics and network-centric strikes,” a U.S. official told us in December. As we have explained in detail in the past, the swarming capabilities combined with some of the drones being equipped with Starlink terminals, means extremely advanced cooperative tactics and dynamic targeting are possible, all while keeping humans in the loop.

The video below is said to show a LUCAS drone, recovered largely intact in Iraq. Its beyond-line-of-sight satellite datalink can be seen detached and hanging by a cable.

Locals in Iraq appear to have recovered a crashed and almost entirely intact Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS), an American copy of the Iranian Shahed-136 Attack Drone, which is confirmed to have been used recently by Task Force Scorpion Strike during U.S. attacks on… pic.twitter.com/SEqO6627en

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 2, 2026

Cooper highlighted how the U.S. has reworked the Iranian Shahed, which have been wreaking havoc during this conflict, killing six U.S. troops and causing destruction across the Middle East.

“We captured it, pulled the guts out, sent it back to America, put a little ‘Made in America on it,’ brought it back here and we’re shooting it at the Iranians.”

In a video message earlier this week, Cooper said that the U.S. has fired “countless one-way attack drones” to great effect.

Thursday, we asked him what kinds of targets LUCAS drones have been used against and he offered a short response.

“Good ones,” he said.

We asked Cooper to respond to stories that have emerged saying the Pentagon and at least one Gulf ally are talking to Ukraine about procuring their low-cost Shahed interceptors. He deferred to Cooper.

“I’m not familiar with the particular offer, but the interceptors in general, we’ve had a number of new capabilities being fielded,” the CENTCOM commander explained. “Obviously, I’m not going to talk about it from the operational perspective of what those are, but I think you have seen over a period of time us kind of get on the other side of this cost curve on drones in general.”

“If I just walk back a couple of years, remember what you used to always hear, we’re shooting down a $50,000 drone with a $2 million missile,” he added. “These days, we’re spending a lot of time shooting down $100,000 drones with $10,000” weapons.

Before Cooper answered our questions, Hegseth repeated the Pentagon’s assertion that it has the weapons it needs to outlast Iranian missile and drone barrages.

“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” Hegseth proclaimed. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need to again, our munition status only increases as our advantage increases our capabilities.”

As we recently pointed out, Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones at U.S., Israeli, and other allied targets in the Middle East has been severely degraded, curbing concerns, even if to just a small degree, about America’s magazine depth.

However, as we have often noted, one of the big concerns about Epic Fury is whether Iranian missile and drone barrages would outlast the ability of the U.S. and allies to defend against them. Despite six days of intensive attacks, Tehran still possesses thousands of missiles and drones, though a significant number of these weapons and their launchers — specifically the longer range ballistic missile types —have been destroyed or prevented from being accessed by crews.

The effort to eliminate the Iranian regime’s mobile missile launch capabilities continues. We are finding and destroying these threats with lethal precision. pic.twitter.com/AkGRYOjnOz

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 5, 2026

Though Iran has been severely pummeled by both the U.S. and Israel, it is unknown how much longer the conflict will grind on. President Donald Trump had stated that it could last four or five weeks. Now the time table is very murky, with the administration indicating it could last much longer. Regardless, the more it drags out, the more munitions the U.S. will expend, but at least it knows it can quickly build more LUCAS drones, if need be.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Iran state TV presenter has threatened women’s national team for not singing anthem at opening AFC Cup match.

The global representative organisation for professional footballers, FIFPRO, has urged governing bodies responsible for the 2026 Women’s Asian Football Confederation Cup to protect the Iran national team after they were labelled “wartime traitors” by an Iranian state ‌television presenter.

Both FIFA, world football’s governing body, and the AFC have been called upon to “undertake all necessary steps to ensure the safety of Iran’s Women’s National Team players”.

The Iran women’s national football team players did not sing their national anthem before their Asian Cup opener against South Korea in Australia earlier ⁠this week.

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting presenter Mohammad Reza Shahbazi said in a video that the players showed a lack of patriotism and their actions amounted to the “pinnacle of dishonour” in footage circulating widely on social media.

“Let me ⁠just say one thing: traitors during wartime ⁠must be dealt with more severely,” Shahbazi said.

“Anyone who takes a step against the country under war conditions must be dealt with more severely. Like this matter of ⁠our women’s football team not singing the national anthem … these people must be dealt with more ⁠severely.”

In a statement released on the social media platform X, FIFPRO released a strong and lengthy statement outlining its concerns.

“In addition to the dangerous situation the players would face if they return to Iran following the tournament, FIFPRO Asia/Oceania is deeply concerned by reports that Iranian state television has publicly attacked the members of the team for remaining silent during the national anthem before their opening match,” the statement read.

“Footage circulating online shows Mohammad Reza Shahbazi, a state TV presenter, calling for them to face the ‘stigma of dishonour and betrayal’.

“These statements significantly heighten concerns for the players’ safety should they return to Iran after the tournament.

“FIFPRO Asia/Oceania has once again written to the AFC and FIFA, calling on them to uphold their human rights obligations under the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights and FIFA’s Human Rights Policy and protect the players.

“We call on the AFC and FIFA to urgently engage with the Iranian Football Association, the Australian Government and all other relevant authorities to ensure that every effort is made to protect the safety of the players.”

The Iranian players stood in silence when Iran’s anthem was played at the Gold Coast ahead of their 3-0 opening loss to South ‌Korea on Monday, though they sang and saluted before a 4-0 defeat by hosts Australia three days later.

The Reuters news agency has contacted both the Asian Football Confederation, the Iranian football federation and the team at the Asian Cup for comment.

Ahead of their game against Australia, Iran forward Sara Didar fought ‌back tears and spoke about the war, while coach Marziyeh Jafari said her players were doing their best to focus on the ‌tournament ‌despite concern for their families back home.

Iran face the Philippines on Sunday in their final group match.

From Broderick Turner: LeBron James, the king of NBA milestones, broke another record held by Lakers legend Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on Thursday night.

Unfortunately, his reward for such an achievement was a sore elbow — and a Lakers loss.

James broke Abdul-Jabbar’s record for the most career field goals in the regular season against the Denver Nuggets, but an elbow injury limited his contributions in crunch time of a 120-113 loss that ended the Lakers’ three-game winning streak.

After scoring over Denver center Nikola Jokic in the fourth quarter, James fell to the court and immediately grabbed his left elbow. He eventually got up and went to the bench with 3:58 remaining. He returned with 2:05 left and the Lakers down 112-111 before leaving again with 22 seconds left after Jokic scored consecutive baskets to give the Nuggets a 116-111 lead.

Sitting at his locker with his elbow wrapped in ice, James expressed frustration with referees not calling a foul on the play that led to his injury.

“That’s all [the referees] keep saying, ‘marginal.’ I’m so … tired of that word,” James said. “It doesn’t make no sense.”

And his elbow?

“It’s pretty sore right now,” James said. “It felt like one of those funny bone situations, but like, super more intense.”

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Lakers-Nuggets box score

NBA scores

NBA standings

USC falls in women’s Big Ten tournament

USC’s Jazzy Davidson leaves the game after sustaining an injury against Washington on Thursday.

(Justin Casterline / Getty Images)

From Marisa Ingemi: If the USC women’s basketball hoped to make a case for a favorable NCAA tournament seed, the Trojans did themselves no favors during the past two weeks culminating with Thursday’s Big Ten tournament loss.

The No. 9 seed Trojans let a second-round tournament contest against No. 8 seed Washington get out of hand in the third quarter, stumbling to a 76-64 loss at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. USC’s conference run ended quickly after the Trojans delivered one of their worst offensive outings of the season.

It was USC’s fourth consecutive loss, putting its NCAA tournament positioning in question.

“There were eight teams that finished above us in our league,” USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb said. “Seven of them in the last reveal are hosting, and the other one here is obviously a tournament team that now we’ve split with. I don’t think [an at-large bid] is in question.”

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USC-Washington box score

Women’s college basketball scores

Rams re-sign veteran tight end Tyler Higbee

Rams tight end Tyler Higbee celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals on Jan. 4.

(Jessie Alcheh / Associated Press)

From Gary Klein: The Rams are keeping their longest-tenured player in the fold.

On Thursday, the Rams agreed to terms with tight end Tyler Higbee on a two-year contract, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The people requested anonymity because the deal has not been announced.

Terms were not disclosed but the deal is worth $8 million, according to multiple reports.

Higbee, 33, was a fourth-round draft pick by the Rams in 2016, and he is the leader of a tight end group that includes Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen and Terrance Ferguson, a 2025 second-round pick. Coach Sean McVay relied heavily on the group last season when he implemented a scheme that featured multiple tight end sets to protect quarterback Matthew Stafford, improve run blocking and complement star receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

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Dodgers will continue to help Andrew Toles

Andrew Toles bats for the Dodgers during a game in April 2017.

(Ralph Freso / Associated Press)

From Ed Guzman: The story of the Dodgers and Andrew Toles is one of a franchise trying to do the right thing by one of its former players struggling with mental health challenges.

Toles, a promising outfielder who played parts of three seasons with the team from 2016 to 2018, did not report to spring training in 2019 and was quietly placed on the restricted list before it was eventually revealed that Toles had been diagnosed with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia.

Every year since 2019, the team has quietly renewed Toles’ contract so he can retain his health insurance while placing him on the restricted list so he would not take a roster spot.

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Ciena Alipio a vital part of UCLA’s title push

UCLA gymnast Ciena Alipio, left, celebrates with teammate Jordan Chiles after completing a beam routine against Washington on Jan. 30.

(Jesus Ramirez / UCLA Athletics)

From Anthony Solorzano: Coming into her senior year, Ciena Alipio wanted to be as present as humanly possible and learn how to trust herself going into every competition.

She set forth goals for herself and a bigger one for the UCLA gymnastics team. With the first box checked after clinching their second consecutive Big Ten title, the work toward meeting each of her standards is just beginning.

“You’re seeing the result of every hard practice that we’re having,” Alipio said after Friday’s victory over Maryland. “We’re putting in work and we’re doing what we absolutely have to every single day in the gym and I think it’s just putting it all together on the same day.”

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Luka Doncic in danger of being suspended

Lakers star Luka Doncic reacts at the end of a 120-113 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night.

(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)

From Broderick Turner: Lakers star Luka Doncic is one technical away from receiving an automatic one-game suspension after he picked up his 15th technical of the season in a 120-113 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night.

Doncic, who had 27 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, was charged with a technical with 5:43 left in the second quarter.

“Just because I yelled at him, I guess. That’s what he said,” said Doncic about his interaction with referee Ed Malloy. “But I heard three other players say the exact same sentence and didn’t get a tech. And that’s my problem, you know, I was trying not to talk at all. This is the first thing I said — no warning or nothing.”

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Dodgers’ starting rotation taking shape

Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto practices in Tokyo on Wednesday ahead of Japan’s WBC opener.

(Hiro Komae / Associated Press)

From Jack Vita: Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto was slated to start Team Japan’s first game in the World Baseball Classic early Friday morning Pacific Time in Tokyo against Chinese Taipei, with the expectation that he would pitch three innings.

While the right-hander is away from Camelback Ranch, other pitchers vying for a spot in the Dodgers’ starting rotation will be under the microscope — especially with health concerns yet again coming into play.

The Dodgers are no strangers to navigating pitching injuries over the course of a long season. Last year, Yamamoto was the only Dodgers starter to not miss a turn, making 30 starts before making five more during the postseason. But other than the now-retired Clayton Kershaw, who made 22 starts last year, no other Dodger hurler started more than 18 games.

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Dodgers-Reds box score

MLB spring training scores

MLB spring training standings

Ducks trade for veteran defenseman

Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson controls the puck during a game against the Ducks in January.

(Nick Wass / Associated Press)

The Ducks bolstered their blueline Thursday night in anticipation of ending their long playoff drought, acquiring veteran defenseman John Carlson in a trade with the Washington Capitals.

In exchange for Carlson, the Ducks will send a conditional first-round pick (2026 or 2027 draft) and a third-round pick (2027) to Washington.

Carlson, who played an integral part of the Capitals’ 2018 Stanley Cup win and is a former Norris Trophy runner-up for the NHL’s top defenseman, should bring a veteran presence to a young Ducks team that is on pace to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

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More: Ryan Poehling agrees to four-year contract extension with Ducks

Artemi Panarin scores his first goal with Kings

Kings defenseman Mikey Anderson, center, celebrates with forwards Artemi Panarin, left, and Anze Kopitar after scoring during the second period of a win over the New York Islanders on Thursday night at Crypto.com Arena.

(Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)

From the Associated Press: Artemi Panarin scored his first goal in a Kings uniform to lead his new team past the New York Islanders 5-3 on Thursday night for the club’s first victory under interim head coach D.J. Smith.

Panarin, Mikey Anderson and Adrian Kempe had a goal and an assist apiece for the Kings, and Darcy Kuemper made 31 saves. Samuel Helenius and Alex Laferriere also scored in just Los Angeles’ second victory since January.

Kings captain Anze Kopitar had an assist while playing his 1,500th game, becoming the 25th player in NHL history to hit the mark. The Slovenian center, who is retiring this spring after 20 seasons in Los Angeles, is just five points away from passing Marcel Dionne to become the Kings’ career scoring leader.

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Kings-Islanders box score

NHL scores

NHL standings

A quick Learner

Learner Tien plays a forehand return to Alexander Zverev in the Australian Open quarterfinals on Jan. 27.

(Dita Alangkara / Associated Press)

From Douglas Robson: Learner Tien’s first trip to the BNP Paribas Open a year ago barely registered — a curious outcome for what was essentially his hometown tournament debut.

Feeling unwell and still adjusting to the weekly grind of the ATP Tour, the Irvine native exited in the first round and quickly scratched it from his mind.

“Honestly, I don’t really remember my tournament here last year that well,” says Tien as he shuttled between pre-tournament media obligations this week. “I was in and out pretty quick.”

But 12 months is a lot of runway for a young player whose all-court ingenuity, appetite for improvement and ability to shed setbacks have generated lift.

“So far this year, everything has felt good,” Tien says. “And I’m feeling pretty comfortable.”

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This day in sports history

1920 — Mickey Roach of Toronto scores five goals to lead the St. Patricks to an 11-2 rout of the Quebec Bulldogs.

1964 — Boxing legend Cassius Clay joins the Nation of Islam and changes his name to ”Muhammad Ali″, calling his former title a “slave name”.

1976 — Dorothy Hamill wins the World Figure Skating Championships in Goteberg, Sweden.

1977 — Montclair State’s Carol Blazejowski scores 52 points against Queens College, setting a new collegiate scoring record (for men or women) in the current Madison Square Garden in New York.

1982 — The San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks combine for 337 points in the highest scoring game in NBA history, to that point. The Spurs win, 171-166, in three overtimes.

1983 — The 12-team United States Football League begins its first season with five games.

1984 — Dale Hawerchuck of the Winnipeg Jets sets the NHL record for most assists in one period, with five in the second period of a 7-3 triumph over the Los Angeles Kings.

1988 — Julie Krone becomes the winningest female jockey in history with her 1,205th career victory. Krone rides a filly named Squawter to victory in the ninth race at Aqueduct Racetrack.

1996 — Detroit’s Chris Osgood becomes the third goalie in NHL history to score a goal, firing the puck into an empty net with 11 seconds remaining in the Red Wings’ 4-2 victory over Hartford.

2000 — Shaquille O’Neal of the Los Angeles Lakers scores an NBA season-high 61 points and had 23 rebounds in a 123-103 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers.

2001 — George Mason beats North Carolina-Wilmington 35-33 in the second-lowest scoring game in the shot-clock era of NCAA basketball.

2010 — Devin Harris scores 31 points and the New Jersey Nets erased an early 16-point deficit to beat New York 113-93. The Knicks miss all 18 attempts in the most futile 3-point shooting night in league history.

2011 — Lindsey Vonn clinches her third discipline title in three days with a super-G victory to wrap up a memorable weekend of ski racing in Tarvisio, Italy. Vonn took the super-combined and downhill titles the previous two days.

2014 — The Los Angeles Clippers rout the rival Los Angeles Lakers 142-94. It’s the most lopsided victory ever for the Clippers’ franchise and the most one-sided loss in Lakers history.

2015 — Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is suspended for nine games, with the school punished for ignoring the “most fundamental core values of the NCAA” for academic, drug and other violations committed primarily by the men’s basketball program. The school is put on probation for five years and the basketball team is forced to vacate 108 wins in which ineligible players participated.

2015 — Shane Walsh scores the winning goal in the fifth overtime to lead UMass to a 4-3 victory over Notre Dame in the longest game in NCAA Division I ice hockey history.

2019 — LeBron James scores his 32,293rd point in the 2nd quarter of a Lakers’ 115-99 loss to Denver in LA to pass Michael Jordan into 4th place on the NBA all-time point scoring list.

Compiled by the Associated Press

Until next time…

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at houston.mitchell@latimes.com. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

Drone video showed the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem empty at the start of the third Friday in Ramadan, after Israeli authorities restricted access to holy sites.

The United States used Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) for the first time during its ongoing war with Iran, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Wednesday.

The war entered its seventh day on Friday, with attacks continuing across Iran and other countries in the Middle East.

CENTCOM stated in an X post that PrSMs provide an “unrivaled deep strike capability”.

“I just could not be prouder of our men and women in uniform leveraging innovation to create dilemmas for the enemy,” the post quoted Admiral Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM.

It is unclear where these PrSMs were launched from, or which specific targets they hit in Iran.

So what is the PrSM, and why is it significant that it has been used by the US for the first time?

What are Precision Strike Missiles?

PrSMs are described as long-range precision strike missiles by their developer, the Maryland, US-headquartered defence firm Lockheed Martin, which delivered the first PrSMs to the US Army in December 2023.

PrSMs can hit targets ranging from 60km (37 miles) to more than 499km (310 miles) away, according to Lockheed Martin.

The company’s website adds that PrSMs are compatible with the MLRS M270 and HIMARS family of launchers, both also developed by Lockheed and used by both the United Kingdom and US armies.

MLRS stands for multiple-launch rocket systems, used to launch missiles. The UK sent a number to Ukraine in 2022. HIMARS stands for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. In 2022, the US sent a number to Ukraine, as well.

M-142 HIMARS is a high-tech, lightweight rocket launcher that is wheel-mounted, giving it more agility and manoeuvrability on the battlefield. Each unit can carry six GPS-guided rockets, or larger missiles like Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMs) and PrSMs, which can be reloaded in about a minute with only a small crew.

Lockheed Martin adds that PrSMs can be rapidly developed. “We are ready to produce and deliver to meet the US Army’s accelerated timeline for this long-range precision fires priority,” the website says.

PrSMs feature “open systems architecture”, which means that it is easier to plug in new components, upgrade parts, or work with equipment from other companies. Similarly, they are “modular and easily adaptable”, enabling components to be switched around.

They also feature “IM energetic payload”, or Insensitive Munitions energetic payload, which makes explosions safer, the producer says. This means the warhead is made from explosives that are less likely to blow up accidentally if hit by fire, shrapnel or by accident, but still explode properly when triggered as intended.

What is different about the PrSMs?

PrSMs will ultimately replace the ATACMs currently being fired from the HIMARS launchers, significantly increasing their range from 300km (186 miles) to more than 499km (310 miles), without changing the vehicle carrying the missile.

PrSMs also offer double the “missile load” of ATACMs. While a HIMARS launcher is able to carry one ATACMS missile in its pod, it can carry two PrSMs per pod.

Does the PrSM give the US a strategic advantage?

CENTCOM confirmed that PrSMs have been used in the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury and launched on February 28.

CENTCOM posted a video of the PrSMs being launched from M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems in an open desert terrain.

PrSMs do give the US military a boost for its pre-existing long-range capabilities.

Gulf countries such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, specifically the Musandam Peninsula, which have military bases hosting US assets and troops, have at least some territory within 400km (250 miles) of Iran.

The US is using PrSMs in conjunction with other long-range missiles such as Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) one-way drones, MQ-9 Reaper drones, ATACMs and Tomahawk Cruise Missiles.

The range for LUCAS one-way drones is about 800km (500 miles), while the range for ATACMs is about 300km (186 miles) and the range for Tomahawk cruise missiles is about 1,600km (1,000 miles).

Why is the introduction of the PrSM significant?

The range of this missile is significant as it is likely that it would not have been permitted under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, which the Trump administration withdrew the US from in 2019. This is because it can exceed the maximum 500km (310-mile) range the treaty imposed on certain land-launched missiles.

The treaty was signed in 1987 by US and Soviet Union leaders Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. It sought to eliminate the presence of land-based nuclear missiles and medium-range arsenals between 500km and 5,500km (310 and 3500 miles) from Europe.

The US suspension of the treaty allowed Washington to resume development of its own medium-range, land-based arsenal.

Following the US suspension, Russia invited the US to reciprocate in a unilateral moratorium on the deployment of ground-launched intermediate-range missiles instead. While Washington initially rejected the offer, in 2022, it said it would be willing to discuss this.

In August last year, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Russia’s withdrawal from this moratorium, however, saying the US had “made significant progress” and “openly declared plans to deploy US ground-launched INF-range missiles in various regions”. INF stands for intermediate-range nuclear forces.

The statement added that such actions by Western countries posed a “direct threat” to Moscow’s security.

Kyiv, Ukraine – As Washington’s Middle Eastern allies use US-made Patriot air defence systems to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones, Ukraine is about to face a dire shortage of ammunition for them.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin is sure to exploit the shortage of pricey guided missiles the truck-mounted Patriots launch at machinegun speed to down his pride and joy, Russia’s ballistic missiles that he once declared were “indestructible”, experts have told Al Jazeera.

The Patriots were developed in the 1970s to down Soviet missiles whose modifications Russia still rains on Ukraine.

The supply of Patriots to Ukraine began in 2023 and was initially limited to several batteries stationed in the capital, Kyiv. The location of the systems was constantly changed to protect them from Russian attacks.

The Patriots utilise advanced radars to detect targets flying at supersonic speeds and launch their guided missiles with the sound that resembles super-fast electronic beats – up to 32 missiles per minute.

But the noise – along with thunderous shockwaves that follow split-second, sun-bright explosions – made Ukrainians feel safe during harrowing, hours-long Russian assaults that have targeted civilian areas and involve hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles.

Within weeks after their deployment, the Patriots intercepted Russia’s Kinzhal (Dagger) intercontinental ballistic missiles that are launched by supersonic fighter jets and fly in the Earth’s stratosphere.

The interceptions disproved Putin’s earlier claims that the Kinzhals made any Western air defence systems “useless”.

The safety, however, came with a hefty price tag – each Patriot guided missile costs several million dollars, and their manufacturing never exceeded more than 900 units a year.

‘Tomorrow’s problem’

Some 800 guided missiles have been used to repel Iranian aerial attacks within just three days after Tehran began raining its missiles and drones on almost a dozen nations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday.

“Ukraine has never had this many missiles to repel attacks,” Zelenskyy said, reiterating his readiness to dispatch Ukrainian experts and drone interceptors to help Gulf nations counter the attacks.

The shortage of guided missiles is, however, not immediate and may occur in several weeks.

“This is not today’s problem, this is tomorrow’s problem,” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Center for Applied Political Studies (Penta) think tank, told Al Jazeera.

But the problem may become catastrophic.

In recent days, Moscow stopped attacking Ukraine with drones and missiles – a sign of amassing them for massive raids in the near future, Fesenko said.

“Russia’s most obvious actions would be to bleed Ukraine’s stock of Patriot missiles dry to inflict maximal damage on us through massive missile attacks,” he said.

Kyiv already faces a less critical problem with the shortage of missiles for Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets that proved effective in downing Russian missiles.

“The problem is less critical, but also vital for us,” Fesenko said.

Ukraine has experienced a shortage of Patriot missiles before.

Last summer, when the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, the Pentagon stopped the Patriot missiles’ supply as it was “auditing” its own stocks.

The suspension of Patriot interceptors and HIMARS multiple rocket launchers left Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, including thermal power stations and transport hubs, more vulnerable to Russian attacks.

Russia’s tactics of indiscriminate aerial strikes have been tried and tested over the past four years.

Moscow starts an air raid with drones and decoy drones to make Ukrainian air defence units use as many Patriot missiles as possible.

It then launches several more waves of attack drones and ballistic and cruise missiles.

As to upcoming attacks, “the question is that this time, it won’t be energy infrastructure, but whatever other targets the Kremlin will want to choose”, Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych told Al Jazeera.

He referred to devastating attacks on energy and central heating facilities that left millions of Ukrainians without power and heat this winter, triggering health problems and deaths from hypothermia.

Russia already targets sites unprotected by Patriots: Military expert

Meanwhile, Israel and the European nations that pledged to transfer their stock of Patriot missiles to Ukraine are reluctant to do so now.

“Considering the general instability, I don’t think that many nations will open up their stock and pass it on to us,” Tyshkevich said.

Since the supplies of Patriots began, the US-Russian technological battle has kept raging on, according to the former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, who for decades specialised in air defence.

“There is a confrontation in engineering,” Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko told Al Jazeera.

“Russians change something, Americans together with our experts change something else, because remaining on the old [technological] level means losing the battle before it begins.”

Russian engineers “modified software making the [Iskander-M] missiles able to manoeuvre mid-air, and the modernisation largely complicated the operation of the few Patriot systems that we have to destroy them,” Romanenko said.

The Patriots, however, have not become a Ukraine-wide aegis against the Russian strikes.

Ukraine has fewer than a dozen batteries, while Kyiv said it needed at least 25.

Russians “already know that we have but a few Patriot batteries against their ballistic missiles, so they were hitting the sites that had not been covered by the Patriots, or where they had not been deployed,” Romanenko said.

Luckily, Ukraine has an alternative.

A handful of French-Italian SAMP/T systems with solid-fuel anti-aircraft missiles have been deployed to Ukraine since 2023 and showed the advantages of their radars and “engagement logic” with high-speed targets.

While a Patriot battery requires up to 90 support servicemen and takes half an hour to deploy, SAMP/Ts require about a dozen.

But their ability to down modified Russian missiles will have to be battle-tested, Romanenko said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s increasingly daring drone and missile strikes deep inside Russia destroy or damage their arm depots and plants producing drones and missiles.

In recent weeks, they hit the Admiral Essen, a Russian frigate capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, nine air defence systems in Russia-occupied Donetsk and Crimea, and Russia’s only plant that produces fibre-optic cable for drones.

Supporters of the United States and Israeli military campaign against Iran argue that weakening Tehran by degrading its missile capabilities, crippling its navy and reducing its ability to project power through regional allies will make the Middle East safer. But this strategy rests on an assumption that a weaker Iran would produce a more stable region. In reality, destabilising one of the Middle East’s largest and most strategically important states could unleash forces far more dangerous than the status quo.

According to briefings provided to congressional staff in Washington, DC, there was no intelligence suggesting Iran was planning to attack the US. Yet military escalation continues in the belief that weakening Iran will ultimately serve US interests. If that assumption proves wrong, the consequences could be severe not only for the region but also for American strategic interests.

The first danger is internal fragmentation. Iran’s population is ethnically diverse. While Persians form the majority, the country is also home to large Azeri, Kurdish, Arab and Baloch communities, among others. Several of these groups already have histories of political tension or insurgency, including Kurdish militant activity in the northwest and a long-running Baloch insurgency in the southeast.

A strong central state has largely kept these fault lines contained. But if Iran’s governing structures weaken significantly, those tensions could intensify. The result could resemble the fragmentation seen in other Middle Eastern states after external military pressure or regime collapse.

Recent history offers sobering examples. In Iraq, the dismantling of state institutions after the 2003 US invasion created the conditions for years of sectarian violence and ultimately the rise of ISIL (ISIS). Libya’s state collapse in 2011 left the country divided between rival governments and armed militias, a crisis that persists more than a decade later. Syria’s civil war produced one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes of the century while turning large swaths of territory into battlegrounds for militias and extremist groups. At the height of the conflict, ISIS was able to seize and govern territory across eastern Syria, declaring a so-called caliphate that controlled millions of people.

Iran’s collapse would produce an even more dangerous scenario. Its population is far larger than Iraq, Libya or Syria, and its territory borders multiple conflict-prone regions. The emergence of armed factions, ethnic militias or insurgent groups inside Iran could quickly transform the country into another arena of prolonged instability.

Such instability would not remain local. Iran sits at the heart of the Gulf, one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors. Roughly a fifth of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz along Iran’s southern coastline. Armed factions, rival militias or uncontrolled naval forces operating along Iran’s coast could disrupt shipping lanes, attack tankers or try to block access to the strait, turning a regional crisis into a global energy shock. That would have consequences far beyond the Middle East. Higher energy prices would ripple through global economies, affecting everything from transportation costs to inflation. American policymakers often view energy instability as a regional problem, but in reality, it quickly becomes a global one.

The strategic consequences would extend further. Iran currently serves as a central node in a network of regional alliances and proxy groups that includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militia groups in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. These actors operate within a framework influenced, to varying degrees, by Tehran. If the Iranian state weakens dramatically, that structure could fragment. Some groups might operate independently, others might compete for influence, and still others could radicalise further without central coordination. The result would be a far more unpredictable security environment across the Middle East, which would make diplomatic engagement more difficult and military conflicts harder to contain.

Another risk lies in leadership uncertainty. Some policymakers assume that weakening the current Iranian leadership will produce a more moderate political order. But regime change rarely follows a predictable script.

Iran’s political system contains multiple competing factions, including conservative clerical networks, reformist politicians and powerful elements within the security establishment such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran’s leadership transition is less about a single successor than about the balance of power between clerical institutions, elected offices and the security apparatus. If the existing leadership were weakened or removed during wartime conditions, that balance could quickly unravel. The IRGC, which already commands vast military and economic resources, could try to consolidate authority, potentially pushing Iran towards a more overtly militarised political order. In such an environment, more radical actors, particularly those who view compromise with the US as impossible, could gain influence.

There is also little evidence that sustained military strikes will generate pro-American sentiment among the Iranian population. History suggests that external pressure often strengthens nationalist sentiment rather than weakening it. The 2003 invasion of Iraq, for example, did not produce pro-American attitudes but instead fuelled resentment and insurgency. Similarly, repeated Israeli military campaigns in Lebanon have tended to strengthen support for Hezbollah rather than weaken it.

Beyond the Middle East itself, instability in Iran could also trigger significant migration flows. Iran already hosts millions of refugees from neighbouring countries, particularly Afghanistan. If internal conflict were to erupt inside Iran, even a small share of Iran’s population of more than 90 million people seeking refuge abroad could produce migration flows far larger than those seen during recent Middle Eastern crises.

Many of those migrants would likely move towards Turkiye and eventually Europe, placing additional pressure on governments already grappling with migration crises. While this may appear distant from American shores, the political consequences for US allies in Europe would inevitably affect transatlantic relations and Western cohesion.

Taken together, these risks illustrate a broader strategic problem. Weakening Iran may appear attractive to the US from a narrow military perspective, but destabilising a large regional power rarely produces orderly outcomes.

The United States has confronted similar dynamics before. The collapse of state authority in Iraq after 2003 did not eliminate threats in the region; it produced new ones. Libya’s fragmentation after 2011 created an enduring security vacuum. Syria’s civil war turned into a multisided conflict that reshaped the politics of the entire region.

For Washington, the question should be whether the long-term consequences of destabilising Iran would ultimately make the region and the world more dangerous. If recent history offers any guidance, destabilising Iran may ultimately create the very threats Washington hopes to eliminate.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Caracas, March 5, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met Wednesday with US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas to discuss a bilateral agenda focused on energy and mining.

Senior officials from both countries also attended a closed-door meeting, including US Chargé d’Affaires Laura Dogu and Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello. Rodríguez and Burgum later gave a joint press conference.

“We welcomed Burgum to address important aspects related to metallic, non-metallic, strategic and non-strategic minerals,” the acting president told reporters. “We want the Venezuelan people to see the advantage of having good relations with the world and with the United States.”

Rodríguez said that her economic team will soon present a proposal to the National Assembly to “expand” Venezuela’s Mining Law, urging lawmakers to reform it “swiftly” in order to showcase “investment and development opportunities in the mining sector” to both domestic and international business groups.

Venezuela’s current mining legislation was approved in 1999. Rodríguez noted that the government intends to replicate the “win-win formula” of the recent hydrocarbon reform approved on January 29, which introduced wide-reaching benefits for foreign capital in the oil sector.

Under the overhauled legislation, private operators get expanded control over operations, with limited parliamentary oversight and a reduced tax burden.

Rodríguez also thanked US President Donald Trump for a social media post praising the Venezuelan acting president for “doing a great job.” The Venezuelan leader highlighted the US government’s “kind disposition” to work on a “mutually beneficial” cooperation agenda.

For his part, Burgum said that Venezuela is “an extraordinarily rich nation” in oil, gas, and critical minerals, adding that the opportunities for collaboration between the two countries “have no limits.” He serves as chair of the US National Energy Dominance Council as well.

According to the senior White House official, who holds the natural resources portfolio, the potential cooperation could deliver something “truly remarkable” for both the Venezuelan and American people. Burgum’s delegation included representatives from over 20 US and Canadian mining companies, some of them with a past presence in Venezuela.

“These companies are ready to begin,” he said. “I know that [Acting President] Rodríguez, like President Trump, wants to cut bureaucratic red tape so this capital investment can start flowing.”

Among the companies represented in the visit were US firms Peabody Energy—the world’s largest private coal company—Hartree Partners, Orion CMC, Paulson & Co., and Caterpillar Inc., along with Canada’s Lundin Mining Corp and Singapore-based commodities trader Trafigura.

Canadian miner Gold Reserve also announced plans to return to the Caribbean nation and disclosed a 30-day US Treasury license to negotiate with Caracas.

According to Axios, US officials additionally negotiated a multimillion-dollar agreement with Venezuela’s state mining company Minerven to sell up to one metric ton of gold to the US market, currently valued at roughly $165 million.

The deal would require Minerven to supply between 650 and 1,000 kilograms of doré gold bars—a crude alloy of gold and silver with 50 to 90 percent purity—to Trafigura, which would transport the metal to US refineries. The transaction details were not disclosed, including whether Trafigura will deposit payment in US-run accounts in an arrangement similar to the one the Trump administration has imposed for Venezuelan oil exports.

Burgum is the fourth senior US official to visit Venezuela since the January 3 US military strikes and kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, National Assembly deputy Cilia Flores.

Earlier visits included US Southern Command chief Francis Donovan, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

Venezuela possesses vast unexplored and proven mineral reserves, including significant gold, iron, bauxite, diamonds, nickel, and copper deposits. Coltan reserves have likewise been touted in recent years.

According to the International Center for Productive Investment (CIIP)—an agency attached to the Venezuelan vice presidency—the country holds the eighth-largest iron reserves in the world, estimated at 14.7 billion metric tons, as well as more than 321 million tons of bauxite, the raw material used to produce aluminum.

Regarding gold, the CIIP estimates that Venezuela may hold between 2,200 and 8,000 metric tons, which would place the country among the largest gold reserves globally. 

Analysts have also highlighted the possibility of finding rare earth deposits in the South American country. The 17 elements have diverse applications in cutting-edge technology and advanced weapons systems. Washington is currently highly dependent on rare earth imports from China.

Edited by Ricardo Vaz in Caracas.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah group urges Israelis to evacuate border areas as Israel continues to bomb the country.

The death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon this week has risen to at least 123 people, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health says, as a new wave of strikes pounded the country and Hezbollah warned Israeli residents to evacuate towns within 5km (3 miles) of their northern border, in one of the fiercest fronts in the wider United States-Israel war on Iran.

“The toll from the Israeli aggression on Monday … increased to 123 martyrs and 683 wounded,” a ministry statement said on Thursday.

Lebanese state media said early on Friday that Israel had launched air strikes on several towns in southern Lebanon.

“Enemy warplanes launched nighttime strikes on the towns of Srifa, Aita al-Shaab, Touline, as-Sawana and Majdal Selem,” the official National News Agency (NNA) reported.

Another strike hit the eastern Lebanese town of Douris at dawn, the NNA said.

Hezbollah’s message to evacuate the border areas came less than a day after Israel threatened residents that they should leave Beirut’s southern suburbs, prompting a huge exodus from a swath of the capital’s densely populated area known as Dahiyeh, where some half a million people live.

The Israeli army said it has conducted 26 rounds of attacks in Dahiyeh. It claims to have hit various infrastructure used by Hezbollah, including the headquarters of the group’s Executive Council and a warehouse with drones.

“Your military’s aggression against Lebanese sovereignty and safe citizens, the destruction of civilian infrastructure and the expulsion campaign it is carrying out will not go unchallenged,” Hezbollah said.

Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a wave of attacks early on Friday on Israeli ground forces, including those who have entered Lebanon’s territory in recent days.

In a statement on Telegram, Hezbollah said its fighters had attacked Israeli forces in several areas, including Maroun al-Ras and Kfar Kila, within Lebanese territory.

Hezbollah also attacked Israel’s Yoav military camp in the occupied Golan Heights and a navy base in Israel’s Haifa port, the statement said.

There were no immediate reports of casualties.

Israel has said it will not evacuate its border towns and has sent more soldiers into Lebanon, claiming it was a defensive measure meant to protect its citizens who live nearby.

In contrast, tens of thousands of people in Lebanon have fled their homes after threats from Israel, with a mass exodus from Beirut’s southern suburbs leaving the area “almost empty”, the NNA said.

Hundreds of displaced families were left to seek shelter on a Beirut beach, where they waited despondently – many for the second time, after evacuating during a 2024 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

‘We are not animals’

Zeina Khodr, reporting from Beirut, said the humanitarian crisis is growing rapidly, as people seeking shelter can be seen “on the side of the roads on almost every corner”.

“There aren’t enough schools to shelter the hundreds of thousands of people who were forced to flee their homes after Israel’s forced displacement threat for Beirut’s southern suburbs yesterday,” she said.

“People are telling us: ‘We are not animals; we are human beings, our children are cold.’”

She noted that the Lebanese government has opened a number of shelters and told people to head to the north of the country.

Khodr added: “But many do not have any means of transport. It’s not just Lebanese who live in Beirut’s southern suburbs, but also Syrian refugees and Palestinian refugees.”

Lebanon was pulled into the war in the Middle East on Monday, as Hezbollah opened fire, prompting Israeli air strikes focused on Beirut’s southern suburbs and on southern and eastern Lebanon.

The war has rekindled fighting between Israel and Iran-allied Hezbollah fighters, and Israel launched a series of air raids late on Thursday into Friday in the southern suburbs of Beirut and other areas.

Multiple Gulf nations, Arab states, as well as Turkiye and Azerbaijan have been caught in the crosshairs of the war.

Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency has reported that overnight attacks on Bahrain’s capital, Manama, targeted the Financial Harbour Towers commercial complex, the location of the Israeli embassy in the city.

The first week of the United States-Israel war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on nations hosting US forces and assets has engulfed the region and beyond into a broader conflict.

The Reuters news agency reported Friday that an Iranian drone was intercepted and destroyed in the vicinity of the complex.

Multiple Gulf nations, Arab states, as well as Turkiye and Azerbaijan have been caught in the crosshairs of the war.

The Saudi Ministry of Defense on Friday said a cruise missile was intercepted and destroyed to the east of the country’s central al-Kharj governorate. The ministry provided no additional information.

The ministry also said later it had intercepted three drones to the east of the Riyadh region.

Additionally, the Qatari Ministry of Defence announced overnight that its air defence forces successfully intercepted a drone attack targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Doha that hosts US assets.

Earlier, authorities issued an alert warning that the security threat level had been elevated, requiring people to remain indoors and to stay away from windows and other exposed areas.

Several explosions rang out in Doha on Thursday.

European Union leaders expressed support for Arab countries in the Gulf as Iran continues to launch missile and drone attacks on targets across the region, in response to attacks by the US and Israel.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and other European leaders held talks with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) officials on Thursday in Brussels, denouncing what they described as “Iran’s inexcusable attacks against the GCC countries”.

Elsewhere n Friday, air defences shot down several drones in the Jordanian city of Irb, according to an Al Jazeera correspondent on the ground.