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Manchester United strengthen grip on third spot in Premier League with 1-0 win that leaves Chelsea relying on favours.

Manchester United took a giant step towards ending a two-year exile from the Champions League as Matheus Cunha scored the only goal in a 1-0 win against Chelsea.

United’s victory on Saturday opens up a 10-point gap between the Red Devils in third place and sixth-placed Chelsea, with only 15 points left to play for this season.

The top five in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League next season.

But a fourth consecutive league defeat leaves Chelsea’s chances of being back among Europe’s elite next season in tatters. It also piles pressure on manager Liam Rosenior, only three months into his reign.

Chelsea once again bemoaned the lack of a clinical striker as they failed to break down a makeshift United defence ravaged by injury and suspension.

United manager Michael Carrick was forced to name a backline featuring three full-backs and 19-year-old Ayden Heaven. But they held out to boost the former England midfielder’s case to get the job at Old Trafford beyond the end of this season.

Chelsea were missing their top scorer, Joao Pedro, through injury, and one-time United target Liam Delap failed to take his chance to shine up front.

Rosenior recalled Enzo Fernandez after the Argentinian was given a two-game suspension by the Blues for suggesting he would be open to a summer move to Real Madrid.

Fernandez started with a point to prove and came agonisingly close to the opener when he curled inches wide.

United looked rusty in a 2-1 defeat to Leeds on Monday, their first action for three and a half weeks.

But Carrick’s men repaired the damage done to their chances of returning to the Champions League next season.

Cunha provided a precise finish to open the scoring two minutes before the break from Bruno Fernandes’s 18th Premier League assist of the season.

Chelsea improved after the break but failed to prevent another damaging defeat, leaving Rosenior’s role in doubt heading into next season.

Delap crashed a header against the woodwork, and Noussair Mazraoui turned a dangerous cross onto his own bar, under pressure from Wesley Fofana.

Moises Caicedo, fresh from signing a new seven-year contract, also came close to rescuing a point for the hosts.

But the final whistle was met by a chorus of boos at full-time, with the Club World Cup winners looking resigned to Europa League football at best next term.

Top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says US naval blockade of Iran’s ports is ‘a clumsy and ignorant decision’.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC) says the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that any ship that attempts to pass through the waterway will be targeted, a dramatic reversal less than 24 hours after the critical shipping lane was reopened.

In a statement carried by Iran’s Student News Agency, the IRGC navy said on Saturday the strait will be closed until the United States lifts its naval blockade on Iranian vessels and ports. It said the blockade was a violation of the ongoing ceasefire agreement in the US-Israel war on Iran.

“We warn that no vessel of any kind should move from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the offending vessel will be targeted,” it said.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and a senior negotiator in talks between Washington and Tehran on ending the war, said in a television interview that “the Strait of Hormuz is under the control of the Islamic Republic”.

“The Americans have been declaring a blockade for several days now. This is a clumsy and ignorant decision,” he added.

The reassertion of control came just hours after Iran had briefly reopened the strait, in line with a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Oil prices dropped on global markets after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that the waterway was “completely open for all commercial vessels.”

More than a dozen commercial ships passed through the waterway before the IRGC reversed course.

Iranian gunboats reportedly fired on two commercial ships on Saturday, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). India’s Ministry of External Affairs also said that two Indian-flagged ships were involved in a “shooting incident” in the strait.

Some merchant vessels in the region received radio messages from the IRGC Navy, warning that no ships were being allowed through the strait.

US President Donald Trump said Tehran could not blackmail Washington by closing the waterway and warned that he would put an end to the ceasefire if a deal before its expiry on Wednesday is not reached. Trump added that the naval blockade would “remain in full force”.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, meanwhile, said the navy was ready to inflict “new bitter defeats” on its enemies.

‘Two competing blockades’

Al Jazeera correspondent Zein Basravi said that Iran and the US are back where they were the previous day.

“Less than 24 hours ago, world leaders were praising what they thought was a breakthrough in this conflict, hoping Iran was signalling a confidence-building measure by opening the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to a ceasefire deal and a permanent end to the war,” he said.

“As disappointed as people may be, this isn’t entirely surprising. What we’re seeing now is a return to square one,” he added, saying there are now “two competing blockades in place”.

Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem, reporting from Tehran, said Iran was using the strait to send a message.

“It’s clear that Iran is dealing with a situation in which they are not sure what’s on the table. So the Strait of Hormuz is once again the only space for engagement, even if it’s a negative engagement. And it’s the space where they are sending and conveying messages to the Americans, showing their leverage,” he said.

Caracas has two avenues known as “Cotas”: Cota Mil, also known as Boyacá Avenue, which borders the Waraira Repano national park from East to West on the North edge of the capital. And Cota 905, or Guzmán Blanco Avenue, which heads south. In both cases, the name refers to their altitude above sea level.

Cota 905 was inaugurated by Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1953. Years later, Venezuelan families began building informal settlements around it. By the late 1970s, it had become a complex area, with difficult access that to some extent isolated it from the rest of the city. 

Between 2014 and 2021, armed gangs took control of the area, turning it into the city’s most dangerous barrio, terrorizing 300,000 residents and ensuring that not even the garbage collection service dared to enter. Every day we heard news of clashes with police forces or even of the “occupied territory” expanding into nearby areas.

Over these years, the government alternated between attempts to negotiate with the gangs –in an effort to turn the neighborhood into a “peace zone” –and a “heavy-handed” crackdown on crime. There were police operations as part of the so-called “Operation Liberation of the People” (OLP), followed by raids by the elite FAES unit. Finally, the massive “Operation Gran Cacique Indio Guaicaipuro” was launched in 2021, with the establishment of 34 checkpoints in what appeared to be an invasion of enemy territory by security forces.

Although no one questioned the need for the government to regain control of Cota 905, Operation Cacique Guaicaipuro sparked strong criticism of police actions, including the arrest of dozens of young people who were later proven to have no connection to criminal gangs. The barrio’s kingpin, Carlos Luis Revete, alias “El Koki,” escaped the operation but was killed months later in a shootout near Caracas. 

Since then, residents of the area have noted a decline in crime and drug trafficking. However, they complain that the government should follow up its intervention by addressing other basic needs: street cleaning, improving services, replacing damaged roofs, creating decent spaces for education, culture, sports, and recreation, generating local employment. Above all, there was also the issue of lifting the stigma after all those years. Making people understand that Cota 905 produces more than just criminals.

Still, in Venezuela, whenever the state takes a step back, organized communities step forward. One initiative I had the chance to get to know was “The Cota 905 Tour: A Thousand Stories, Over a Hundred Murals, One Route,” a community-led cultural tour that transforms the neighborhood into an open-air art gallery.

This project was conceived by Jefferson Cárdenas, a young man known as “Gorra,” who spent a couple of years in prison for theft and weapons possession until another group came to his rescue: Free Convict, a Venezuelan hip-hop group made up of former inmates and prisoners who use music as a tool for social reintegration and personal transformation. In fact, many of these rappers have joined him in this new social initiative. 

Jefferson recruited a couple of neighbors and began taking out trash, clearing brush, sweeping, and installing light bulbs. Little by little, other neighbors started donating small amounts of cement or paint they had stored at home. Some neighbors –who are currently out of the country –also did their part. So did some small business owners in the neighborhood: from the owner of a 30-year-old bodega that is a neighborhood institution, to newer ventures like a pizzeria (which I highly recommend!) and a bakery. Meanwhile, graffiti artists and muralists also decided to contribute their art for free.

To begin the tour, it takes some effort to go up an endless amount of painted staircases that are a testament to urban creativity. Then, amid its labyrinthine streets, we witness murals on walls and house façades. Over a dozen artists and collectives contributed more than 100 artworks.

The key word if self-management. The initiative has relied on grassroots organizations in the barrio and also helped them reactivate.

But the tour isn’t just about taking in the views. Visitors are joined by local historians, and there are impromptu concerts, theater plays designed to raise awareness, traditional games, local cuisine, and even souvenirs for sale featuring positive messages about Cota 905. Given its success, the organizers are considering new possibilities, such as tours at sunrise or sunset.

The Venezuelan government, which in recent years has launched various initiatives in Cota 905 but without much consistency, has acknowledged the tour success. The Ministry of Tourism has officially recognized it, and even groups of foreign tourists have come to experience it.

Jefferson’s team has helped redefine the Cota 905 territory. Artists and musicians now come here to shoot music videos, taking advantage of the incredible views. The most breathtaking photos are taken from the so-called “Eye of God,” a spot that lives up to its name, reaching a height of 1,200 meters. Once used by criminals to maintain control over the city, it is now a local attraction.

To those who might be reluctant to visit Cota 905, Jefferson responds clearly: “I didn’t agree with the police operations –there were too many clashes between law enforcement and gangs. It was a war, but ultimately the state had to do something. This neighborhood was a problem for all of Venezuela, but today we want to be part of the solution. We need these initiatives to work because there are still many kids waiting for opportunities: before, they were given radios, drugs, and weapons; today we want to give them paint, balls, and microphones, so they’re seen in the media as an example and not as a tragedy.” 

The group, which tries to stay away from strong political or religious stances, wants to grow food, introduce horseback rides, and more. “This mountain was hurt,” Jefferson continues. “My brother was killed but my son was born here. We have plenty of reasons to commit to this barrio. Hopefully authorities could give us a helicopter ride so we could point out from above everything that needs fixing. But until then, we’ll continue with our work.”

The story of Cota 905 is not unique, nor is it a novelty. The barrios in the major Venezuelan cities, Caracas above all, have always had to overcome marginalization. When Chávez came to power, many of them remained as “green spaces” in local maps, even though they were home to hundreds of thousands of families in piled-up hillside houses. And if they were classified as green areas, it meant they had no public services nor were they part of public policies. But that never stopped the people from organizing to defend their rights, resist against state violence, and build a future together.Venezuelan barrios can be precarious, hostile, violent. But if we are willing to walk and listen to them, we realize that they are also spaces of profound beauty and solidarity. The struggle continues.

Bayern Munich are keen on Aston Villa‘s Morgan Rogers, Curtis Jones is preparing to leave Liverpool this summer, and Real Madrid are considering appointing former manager Jose Mourinho.

Aston Villa‘s Morgan Rogers is a target for Bayern Munich, who have joined Chelsea and Manchester United in wanting the 23-year-old England forward. (Football Insider), external

England midfielder Curtis Jones, 25, is preparing to leave Liverpool this summer, with Aston Villa ready to step up their interest. (Teamtalk), external

Manchester City continue to prioritise a move for Newcastle United‘s England defender Tino Livramento, 23, but are also looking at alternatives. (Teamtalk), external

Real Madrid are considering appointing former manager Jose Mourinho, who is in charge of Benfica. (Record – in Portuguese), external

Real Madrid will make a decision on manager Alvaro Arbeloa’s future at the end of the season. (Marca – in Spanish), external

Real Madrid are planning a major overhaul of their squad in the summer, with France midfielder Eduardo Camavinga, 23, possibly leaving. (Sport – in Spanish), external

Coventry City’s promotion to the Premier League means the loan move of Nigeria midfielder Frank Onyeka, 28, from Brentford will become permanent. (Talksport), external

Lorient are considering former Lens and Southampton boss Will Still as a candidate to become manager. (L’Equipe – in French), external

Napoli president Aurelio de Laurentiis has brought forward a meeting with manager Antonio Conte to discuss his future amid reports linking him with the Italy team. (Corriere dello Sport – in Italian), external

The recently concluded 14th Ministerial Conference of the WTO produced mixed results. While the multilateral system remains stuck on Appellate Body appointments, one of the most extensive pre-conference discussions focused on the Chinese-led Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFDA). With 129 member states backing the IFDA, including countries like Bangladesh and several least developed countries (LDCs) from Africa, this has put India’s position as a key representative of the third world into question.

However, a thorough examination of India’s position reveals deeper concerns about the WTO within the ever-changing framework of global economic governance. In this article, I argue that India’s opposition to the IFDA is based not merely on apprehensions about China’s strategic influence, but also on other considerations founded on the grounds of jurisdiction, sovereign right to regulate and the procedure.

The Jurisdictional Argument & Potential Fragmentation of the International Trade Regime:

India’s primary objection to the IFDA emerges from a very pivotal question in the field of international law, challenging the jurisdiction and mandate of the WTO. In a rules-based transnational system, international organizations operate on a mandate-based framework. This mandate is primarily derived from the substantive provisions of their founding agreements and the consent of member states. Historically, the WTO’s mandate has centred on trade, specifically the regulation of trade in goods and services, as well as certain trade-related aspects of intellectual property and investment. While instruments such as the Agreement on Trade-Related Investment Measures (TRIMs) and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) incidentally touch upon investment, they do so only insofar as it is in relation with trade.

Given that the WTO’s mandate and primary focus are on trade, India maintains that the regulation of investment as an autonomous domain fall outside its negotiated competence. This position is grounded in the collapse of the “Singapore Issues,” which included investments as one of its four development agenda and were explicitly dropped from the Doha Developmental Agenda in 2004. The reintroduction of investment facilitation through the IFDA is thus viewed as lacking a legitimate mandate, raising serious concerns about the WTO’s overreach.

Another factor closely linked to the lack of mandate is the plurilateral character of the proposed agreement. Unlike multilateral agreements, which bind all WTO members on the basis of consensus, plurilateral agreements apply only to a subset of willing participants. While such arrangements are not unprecedented within the WTO framework, India views the IFDA as a symbolic representation of a broader trend towards fragmentation. The primary concern of New Delhi is the risk that plurilateralism brings to the system. India’s apprehension stems from creation of a two-tier system within the WTO, wherein economically powerful states effectively set the rules, leaving others in a position of reactive compliance. This seriously undermines the foundational principle of sovereign equality among the WTO members and erodes the consensus-based decision-making model that has historically been a salient feature of the WTO.

Right to Regulate

A further dimension of India’s opposition to the IDFA pertains to the preservation of regulatory autonomy. The IFDA, although framed as a facilitative instrument, introduces disciplines that may constrain domestic policymaking. The current bilateral system on which international investment law is based relies heavily on bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and dedicated chapters on investment in comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPA). This empowers developing countries such as India to specifically negotiate foreign investment policy in accordance with domestic requirements and national priorities.

However, under the IFDA’s plurilateral approach, India’s apprehension is grounded in obligations relating to non-discrimination, administrative review, and procedural standardisation, which over time may limit the flexibility required to implement industrial policy, promote local value addition, or regulate sensitive sectors in the public interest.

Further, India is also careful of the potential consequences that may arise from incorporating investment-related disciplines within the WTO framework. Although the IFDA does not formally include investor–state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms, its provisions could nonetheless be invoked indirectly in arbitral proceedings under bilateral investment treaties (BITs).

Given India’s prior experience with investment treaty arbitration and the subsequent revisiting of its Model BIT in 2016 to ensure regulatory balance, this concern carries considerable weight. While at face value these provisions might seem benign and aimed at facilitation of flow of investments, their pro-investor interpretations might create problems by exposing India to international liability.

Another vital dimension of India’s critique pertains to the procedural legitimacy of the IFDA negotiations. It is quite commonly observed that the legitimacy of outcomes is intricately linked to the legitimacy of the processes that produce them. These negotiations were initiated through a Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) which remains controversial within the WTO system. India’s argument relies on the absence of an explicit mandate which contradicts the WTO’s decision-making framework, which is based on consensus.

Beyond these factors, India’s position can also be understood as a negotiation strategy. By resisting the incorporation of new issues such as investment facilitation into the WTO package, India seeks to preserve negotiating leverage in ongoing and future discussions. Accepting the IFDA could open a pandora’s box for the introduction of other areas, including digital trade and e-commerce, thereby shifting the balance of negotiations away from priorities of developing countries, such as agricultural subsidies.

It is important to note that India does not oppose investment facilitation in principle; rather, its criticism is related to the form, venue, and legal consequences of introducing non-trade disciplines at the WTO. India has, in fact, undertaken substantial domestic reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business and attracting foreign investment. Its objection is more precisely directed at the form, forum, and legal implications of embedding such non-trade disciplines within the framework of WTO.

In summary, the refusal of India to sign the IFDA is a reflection of careful consideration of complex legal factors combined with prudence regarding institutional development and developmental policy. It underscores a broader tension within the contemporary multilateral trading system aiming to balance the ever-expansive rule-making to protect & promote investments, with preservation of regulatory policy space for host states.

The order calls on the federal government to relax restrictions on psychedelics, including ibogaine, for potential treatments.

United States President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to speed up the review of a handful of psychedelic drugs, including the controversial ibogaine.

Trump was joined by podcaster Joe Rogan during Saturday’s Oval Office event.

Rogan, considered one of the most influential podcasters in the country, has been a leading proponent of ibogaine, which is derived from a plant that grows in West Africa and has been embraced by some military veteran groups as a treatment for post-traumatic stress.

Speaking at the event, Rogan recounted how he had previously texted information to Trump about ibogaine.

He recalled that the president quickly texted back: “Sounds great. Do you want FDA [Food and Drug Administration] approval? Let’s do it.”

Advocacy groups have long pushed for more research into the possible use of psychedelics to treat an array of issues, including depression.

“Today’s order will ensure that people suffering from debilitating symptoms might finally have a chance to reclaim their lives and lead a happier life,” Trump said at the signing.

“If these turn out to be as good as people are saying, it’s going to have a tremendous impact.”

At one point, the president quipped that he would be open to taking psychedelics himself: “Can I have some, please? I’ll take some.”

But he quickly pivoted away from the joke. “I don’t have time to be depressed. You know, if you stay busy enough, maybe that works, too. That’s what I do,” he said.

Increasing research into psychedelics has proven a rare issue with bipartisan support in the US, where ibogaine and other psychedelics remain banned under the federal government’s most restrictive category for illegal drugs.

Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr had previously pledged to ease access to psychedelics for medical use.

Trump’s executive order calls on the Department of Health and Human Services to direct at least $50m to states that have enacted or are developing programmes to advance psychedelic drugs for serious mental illness.

It also arrives ahead of several actions from the FDA to loosen restrictions.

This week, the agency will issue so-called “national priority” vouchers for three psychedelics, which the agency’s commissioner, Marty Makary, said will allow certain drugs to be approved quickly “if they are in line with our national priorities”.

The FDA is also taking steps to clear the way for the first-ever human trials of ibogaine in the US. Previous research had been stalled by concerns over the drug potentially triggering fatal heart problems.

Ibogaine was first used by members of the Bwiti religion in African nations like Gabon for religious ceremonies.

Rogan’s endorsement helped boost Trump ahead of the 2024 presidential election. He has since publicly questioned the administration’s war with Iran, saying it runs counter to Trump’s campaign pledges.

Also present on Saturday was Marcus Luttrell, a former Navy SEAL whose memoir about his time in Afghanistan, Lone Survivor, was later made into a film.

He praised ibogaine during the ceremony: “It absolutely changed my life for the better.”

The attacker has been identified as a “58-year-old Moscow man”, but no motive has been established.

A gunman who killed at least six people in Kyiv and took hostages has been shot dead by Ukrainian police, officials said.

The attack occurred on Saturday in the capital’s Holosiivskyi district, where the assailant opened fire on civilians in the street before barricading himself inside a nearby supermarket, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram.

Special tactical police units stormed the supermarket after roughly 40 minutes of failed negotiations, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said on Telegram. The gunman shot at police officers during the standoff.

“We tried to persuade him, knowing that there was likely a wounded person inside,” Klymenko told The Associated Press news agency. “We even offered to bring in tourniquets to stop the bleeding, but he did not respond.”

Ultimately, authorities were given the order to “neutralise” the attacker, he said.

At least 10 others were hospitalised, including one child, and four hostages were rescued, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on X.

Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko said the attacker was a 58-year-old born in Moscow.

Klymenko said the man was carrying a legally registered gun and had approached licensing authorities as recently as December 2025 to renew his weapons permit, submitting a valid medical certificate at the time. He added that investigators would determine which medical institution issued the document.

Zelenskyy offered his condolences to the families of the victims, saying he had instructed officials to make all verified information publicly available. “We expect a swift investigation,” he wrote.

Follow the live build-up, with full team news coverage, ahead of our text commentary stream of the crunch EPL clash.

Maria Corina Machado gave Trump her Nobel Peace Prize after the US leader captured Nicolas Maduro.

Venezuela’s main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado says she has “no regrets” about giving US President Donald Trump her Nobel Peace Prize medal.

Machado, the 2025 recipient of the prestigious prize, presented the medal that accompanies the prize to Trump when she met him at the White House in January, two weeks after he ordered US special forces to seize Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas.

Trump’s military operation to remove Maduro, who is currently detained in the US facing drug trafficking charges, is “something we Venezuelans will never forget”, she was quoted by AFP news agency as saying at a conference in Madrid on Saturday.

“There is a leader in the world, a head of state in the world, who risked the lives of his country’s citizens for Venezuela’s freedom,” she said.

Trump, who has long publicly coveted the Nobel Peace Prize, called Machado’s presentation of the medal at the time a “wonderful gesture of mutual respect”.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee, which honoured Machado for her tireless campaign to restore democratic rights in Venezuela and her struggle to achieve a peaceful transition from authoritarian rule, made clear after the handover that the prize is nontransferable and cannot be revoked, shared or transferred to others.

Machado, who had been living in hiding before leaving Venezuela in December to collect her prize in Oslo, said she was coordinating her return to the country with Washington.

US key to ‘democratic transition’

“I am speaking with the US government, and we are working in coordination, with mutual respect and understanding,” she said, adding that she believed Washington was “key to advancing a democratic transition” in Venezuela.

Trump has, however, publicly questioned Machado’s standing, calling her a “very nice woman” but saying she lacks “respect” within Venezuela. He has instead backed Maduro’s former vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, as the country’s interim leader.

Venezuela’s opposition last week called for presidential elections. Machado, who was banned from running in the disputed 2024 vote that returned Maduro to power, has not yet said whether she would stand in a future poll.

While in Spain, Machado declined a meeting with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, citing his hosting of a progressive leaders’ summit in Barcelona as proof the meeting was “not advisable”. Sanchez had said he was willing to meet her at any time.

This snub comes in contrast to her frequent encounters with Sanchez’s right-wing opponents.

Iran says it has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which it largely closed after being attacked by the U.S. and Israel. The move was prompted by a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy. However, the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports enacted on Monday remains in place, President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social social media site.

All this comes as the U.S. and Iran appear closer to reaching a deal to end the war, which we will discuss in greater detail later in this story. The temporary ceasefire between the two countries ends April 21.

“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Rep. of Iran,” Sayyed Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, stated on X Friday morning.

That route is a narrow five-mile stretch between the islands of Qeshem and Larak, roughly 15 miles from the Iranian shoreline.

In a post on his Truth Social site, U.S. President Donald Trump hailed the decision but said it did not change the ongoing blockade.

“THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE,” Trump stated. “THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED.”

The president added that “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World!” However, there was no immediate response from Tehran.

Regarding any peace deals, Trump said on his Truth Social network that the “U.S.A. will get all Nuclear ‘Dust,’ created by our great B2 Bombers – No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form.”

This was a reference to the Operation Midnight Hammer attack on Iranian nuclear facilities last year.  Iran is believed to have about 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% of the explosive uranium isotope, U-235 stored at these locations.

“This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer,” Trump added.

It remains to be seen how this will play out. Iran’s state TV, citing a senior military official, highlighted that “only civilian vessels will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via designated routes and with permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.”

“The passage of military vessels through the strait remains prohibited,” it said.

Despite the closure, ships have still transited the strategic body of water through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas exports pass. Ship traffic through the Strait actually “increased from last month’s unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes,” according to the global trade intelligence firm Kpler.

There is also still the issue of mines in the section of the Strait outside the Qeshem-Larak passage. Demining is one of the issues being discussed today in an international meeting being held in Paris, a French official told us. We’ll discuss this meeting in a little more detail later in this story.

Trump, however, claimed that “Iran, with the help of the U.S.A., has removed or is removing all sea mines!”

We have reached out to shippers and maritime analysis and security firms to get a clearer picture of what this decision means from their perspectives.

“This is good news,” a spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd told us. “There are still some open questions on our end, but they might be resolved within the next 24 hours. Top priority for the passage is safety and security for the seafarers, the vessel and the cargo of our customers. If all open issues are cleared (i.e. insurance coverage, clear orders of Iranian government/military about the exact sea corridor to be used and the sequence of ships leaving) we would prefer to pass the strait as soon as possible. Our crisis committee is in session and will try to resolve all open items with the relevant parties within the next 24-36 hours.”

The reopening of the Strait “marks a turn for global shipping, as it allows over 750 vessels previously trapped in the Middle East Gulf to begin clearing approximately $17 billion in stranded energy and dry bulk cargoes,” Kpler told us. “As of April 17, 2026, there are 862 vessels currently operating within the Mideast Gulf. The core of the backlog is composed of approximately 187 laden tankers carrying roughly 172 million barrels of crude and refined products, along with a specialized cluster of 15 LNG vessels that remain almost entirely stalled following the collapse of recent ceasefire talks.”

The Strait reopening and a looming new round of peace talks appears to have provided a boost to the world economy.

“Oil prices are falling by more than 10%, and Wall Street is rallying toward another record after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, which would allow oil tankers to exit the Persian Gulf again and carry crude to customers worldwide,” The Associated Press reported. “The S&P 500 rallied 0.7% as U.S. stocks sprinted toward the finish of a third straight week of big gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%, and the Nasdaq composite added 1%.”

Stocks “have rallied more than 11% since late March on hopes that the United States and Iran can avoid a worst-case scenario for the global economy,” the wire service added.

BREAKING: President Trump and Iran’s foreign minister say the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open. Crude oil prices tumble 10% after the announcements. https://t.co/d44au7X8UP

— The Associated Press (@AP) April 17, 2026

UPDATES

Our coverage for the day has concluded.

UPDATE: 5:45 PM EDT–

Trump told CBS News that Iran has “agreed to everything,” and will work with the U.S. to remove its enriched uranium.

He insisted that doing so will not involve U.S. ground troops. But when asked who would retrieve it, he would only say “our people.”

“No. No troops,” he told the network. “We’ll go down and get it with them, and then we’ll take it. We’ll be getting it together because by that time, we’ll have an agreement and there’s no need for fighting when there’s an agreement. Nice right? That’s better. We would have done it the other way if we had to.”

The president said the material would then be brought to the U.S.

“Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we’ll take it to the United States,” he said.

NEWS President Trump tells me:

-No ground troops will be required to remove enriched uranium from Iran

-Iran has agreed to stop backing all proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas

-I asked if Iran has agreed to stop enriching uranium *forever.” He said, “They’ve agreed to…

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) April 17, 2026

UPDATE: 5:24 PM EDT –

Speaking to the White House press corps, Trump addressed questions about the peace process.

“We’ll see how it all turns out, but it should be good, some very good discussions, and hopefully that subject that you like to talk about will be very good,” he said. “And we’ve done a good job, but we’ll see … the talks are going on and going over the weekend, and a lot of good things are happening that includes Lebanon.”

Asked about differences with Iran on how all this is developing, Trump said: “If there are, I’m going to straighten it out. .. don’t think there’s too many significant differences.”

As for the blockade: “When the agreement is signed, the blockade ends,” he proclaimed.

Earlier on Friday, Iranian officials said they would close the Strait again if the blockade is not lifted.

“We’ve had some very good discussions… Talks are going on. It’ll go on over the weekend — and a lot of good things are happening,” says @POTUS in Arizona.

“As soon as the agreement gets signed, that’s when the blockade ends.” pic.twitter.com/PjNlBvwSAo

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 17, 2026

UPDATE: 1:34 PM EDT –

Trump told Axios that U.S. and Iranian negotiators will probably meet this weekend, and he expects them to hammer out a final deal to end the war. The deal should come “in a day or two,” Axios reporter Barak Ravid added on X.

UPDATE: 1:28 PM EDT –

Trump told Reuters on Friday that the U.S. will work with Iran to recover its enriched uranium ​and bring it back to the United States.

“We’re going to get ‌it together. We’re going to go in with Iran, at a nice leisurely pace, and go down and start excavating with big machinery… We’ll bring it back to the United ​States,” Trump said during a phone interview.

The ⁠United States will work ‌with Tehran to recover its enriched uranium and bring ​it back to ‌the United States, President Donald Trump told Reuters on Friday.

“We’re going to get it together. ‌We’re going to go in with Iran, at ⁠a nice leisurely pace, and go ‌down ​and… pic.twitter.com/ZfwJTFrIbr

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 17, 2026

UPDATE: 1:17 PM EDT –

Seyyed Mohammad Mehdi Tabatabaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s president, pushed back on Trump’s claim that Iran promised never to close the Strait again.

“The Twitter rhetoric and baseless statements of the enemy are aimed at stripping the Iranian nation of their sense of pride for the great victories they have achieved through their resolute defense,” he stated on X. “The conditional and limited reopening of a portion of the Strait of Hormuz is solely an Iranian initiative, one that creates responsibility and serves to test the firm commitments of the opposing side. If they renege on their promises, they will face dire consequences.”

لفاظی‌های توئیتری و اظهارات بی‌پایه دشمن، در جهت سلب احساس افتخار ملت ایران برای پیروزی‌های بزرگی است که در دفاع مقتدرانه کسب کرده‌اند.
بازگشایی مشروط و محدود بخشی از تنگه هرمز ، صرفا ابتکاری ایرانی، مسئولیت‌آفرین و برای آزمون تعهدات قطعی طرف مقابل است. بدعهدی کنند، بد می‌بینند.

— سيد مهدي طباطبايي (@tabaei1356) April 17, 2026

UPDATE 12:51 PM EDT –

Iran considers the continuation of the U.S. blockade on its ports a ceasefire violation and would close the Strait of Hormuz again if the blockade is not lifted, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News reported citing an informed source close to the Supreme National Security Council.

We’ve reached out to the White House for comment.

Iranian official to Fars:

If the maritime blockade continues, it will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz transit route will be closed.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 17, 2026

With new talks potentially set to be held in Pakistan over the weekend, the U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, Axios reported Friday morning. One of the key elements under discussion is “that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium,” the outlet noted, citing two U.S. officials and two additional sources briefed on the talks.

The Memo of Understanding (MoU) also states the two sides are negotiating over a “voluntary” moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran. It also deals with the Strait of Hormuz, “though the sources said there are still significant gaps on that issue,” Axios posited.

It’s unclear if the MOU refers to Iran’s ballistic missiles and its support for regional proxies.

🚨 SCOOP: The U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium. https://t.co/w84Yd8JHgp

— Axios (@axios) April 17, 2026

“Trump is directly talking to the Iranians,” U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told Fox News. 

“He is negotiating himself,” Graham proffered. “He was on the phone with the Iranians a couple of days ago, and it got rather sporty—to the point that Trump loudly told Iran what would happen if they keep playing games. He actually lost his voice. I’d hate to be the Iranian on the receiving end of that.”

Senator Graham:

Trump is directly talking to the Iranians. He is negotiating himself.

He was on the phone with the Iranians a couple of days ago, and it got rather sporty—to the point that Trump loudly told Iran what would happen if they keep playing games.

He actually lost… pic.twitter.com/rMPjT9SYYc

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 17, 2026

Despite rising hopes that the war in Iran could soon end, the country’s deputy foreign minister on Friday rejected any call for a temporary ceasefire. Instead, Tehran is seeking a comprehensive end to conflict across the Middle East, Saeed Khatibzadeh told reporters today. That includes fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, currently paused on the first full day of a shaky 10-day ceasefire.

“We are not accepting any temporary ceasefire,” Khatibzadeh said on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum hosted by Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry. Any end to the fighting must include all conflict zones “from Lebanon to the Red Sea,” he added, describing it as a “red line” for Iran.

The cycle of violence “should end here once and for all,” Khatibzadeh continued, according to Al Jazeera.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) said it is ready to resume fighting if needed.

The Army and the IRGC have their “finger on the trigger” and are “prepared to deliver a powerful, destructive, and regret-inducing response to any aggressive or criminal action by the US-Israeli enemy and their allies against the Iranian nation,” the IRGC said Friday.

As we noted earlier in this story, the leaders of nearly three dozen nations met – mostly virtually – at a conference in Paris today to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz.

Co-chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the conference on the Initiative for Maritime Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz looked at ways of protecting shipping after the fighting ends.

Starmer said the U.K. and France will lead a multinational mission to “protect freedom of navigation” in the Strait as soon as conditions permit. He added that the mission would be “strictly peaceful and defensive,” with the aim of reassuring commercial shipping and supporting mine clearance efforts.

Starmer invited other countries to join, saying that roughly a dozen countries had committed to contributing assets.

Kaja Kallas, European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission, said leaders also discussed ensuring that Iran imposes no tolls on passage through the Strait.

“Any pay-for-passage scheme will set a dangerous precedent for global maritime routes,” she stated on X. “Iran has to abandon any plan to levy transit fees. Europe will play its part in restoring the free flow of energy and trade, once a ceasefire takes hold.”

Kallas added that the EU’s Aspides naval mission is already operating in the Red Sea “and can be quickly strengthened to protect shipping across the region. This could be the fastest way to provide support.”

Yesterday, a spokesman for Aspides told us that there were no changes in its mission.

Under international law, transit through waterways like the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and free of charge. This is what leaders made clear in their call on reopening the Strait today.

Any pay-for-passage scheme will set a dangerous precedent for global maritime routes.… pic.twitter.com/Jeufv4hQou

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) April 17, 2026

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has described the five permanent members of the UN Security Council as “Lords of War.” He called on them to stop acting like “emperors” and waging war on poorer countries.

The EU’s special representative for the Gulf said Saturday that any lasting solution for the Middle East must be led by countries in the region rather than imposed from outside, Anadolu reports.

Speaking at a panel during the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in southern Turkiye, Luigi Di Maio said the current crisis in the Gulf is another sign of the “further erosion of international law.”

“If we want to try to find a solution for avoiding again another crisis, like the ongoing crisis or a wider crisis, a farther spillover, we need to work all together,” he said.

Di Maio said the EU remains committed to multilateralism and international law, while stressing that Europe does not want to be “part of this war.”

At the same time, he said European countries are supporting Gulf partners in self-defense, including intercepting drones and missiles from Iran under bilateral agreements.

READ: US, Iran likely on Monday to hold 2nd round for technical talks in Islamabad: Sources

He also warned that instability in the Gulf affects the wider world, not only because of oil and gas, but also due to trade in fertilizer, helium for semiconductors and other goods moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Di Maio said the collapse of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal showed the importance of involving regional countries in negotiations.

“Every solution for the Middle East has to be a region-led process,” he said.

He said stronger connectivity and defense cooperation can make the region more resilient to future crises, adding that “autonomy does not mean isolation.”

He praised mediation efforts by Turkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, saying they had helped secure a ceasefire and could contribute to a broader agreement.

READ: French soldier killed in attack on UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon: Macron

UN Children’s Fund calls on Israeli authorities to investigate and ‘ensure full accountability’.

The United Nations Children’s Fund says it is “outraged” after Israel killed two drivers it had contracted to deliver clean water to families in Gaza.

UNICEF said in a ⁠statement the incident occurred during routine water trucking on Friday morning at the Mansoura water filling point in northern Gaza, which supplies Gaza City. Two other people ‌were wounded in the attack.

The agency said it had suspended activities at the site and called on Israeli authorities to investigate and “ensure full accountability”.

“Humanitarian workers, essential service providers, and civilian infrastructure, including critical water facilities, must never be targeted,” it said.

It said that “the protection of civilians and those delivering life-saving assistance is an obligation under international humanitarian law”.

More than 750 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the US- and Qatar-brokered “ceasefire” in Gaza took effect last October, according to Palestinian health authorities.

More than 72,000 people have been killed since Israel launched its genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza on October 7, 2023, following a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Meanwhile, in the occupied West Bank, a Palestinian man was shot and killed by Israeli forces in Khirbet Salama, the official Palestinian news agency WAFA reported.

Muhammad Ahmad Suwaiti, 25, was pronounced dead at the scene, WAFA said.

Israel’s military said a person carrying a knife in the illegal settlement of Negohot was killed. It did not say who was responsible.

Using the biblical term for the West Bank, the Israeli military said in a statement that “a terrorist who infiltrated the community of Negohot in Judea and Samaria was identified and eliminated in a rapid response”.

Israeli forces and settlers have killed more than 1,060 Palestinians in the occupied West Bank since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

LeBron James is playoff ready

From Thuc Nhi Nguyen: Bright lights, big stage, same LeBron.

Unmoved by postseason pressure, superstar LeBron James said he doesn’t plan to change his preparation ahead of the Lakers’ playoff opener against the Houston Rockets on Saturday. Approaching his record-tying 19th postseason appearance, James has reason to believe in his well-established routine.

“Nothing changes for me from the regular season to the postseason,” James said, “besides just making even more heightened focus.”

The consistent approach that guided him through 23 regular seasons puts James in position to star in another high-stakes game as the Lakers (53-29) chase the franchise’s 18th NBA championship. James will command almost the entire spotlight with guards Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves still sidelined.

The 41-year-old, 22-time All-Star has never had a problem with being a leading man.

“I think a lot of the great players, the best players, what they’re addicted to is being the showman,” Lakers coach JJ Redick said, referencing Stephen Curry’s fourth-quarter heroics that pushed the Golden State Warriors over the Clippers in a thrilling play-in game Wednesday night. “And being on the stage and giving a performance. …

Continue reading here

Luka Doncic eligible for NBA’s postseason awards after league, NBPA rule in his favor

Lakers playoff schedule

First round
All times Pacific

Saturday: Houston at Lakers, 5:30 p.m, ABC
Tuesday: Houston at Lakers, 7:30 p.m., NBC
Friday, April 24: Lakers at Houston, 5:30 p.m., Amazon Prime Video
Sunday, April 26: Lakers at Houston, 6:30 p.m., NBC
*Wed., April 29: Houston at Lakers, TBD
*Friday, May 1: Lakers at Houston, TBD
*Sunday, May 3: Houston at Lakers, TBD

*-if necessary

Mike Trout homers again

Mike Trout hit his fifth homer of the series and the Angels overcame a homer by Aaron Judge in their 11-4 victory over the New York Yankees on Thursday afternoon for a four-game split.

Trout, who recently made a mechanical adjustment, went six for 16 with five homers and nine RBIs in the series. Trout hit his latest homer with one out in the seventh inning when he sent a 2-2 slider from reliever Angel Chivilli about halfway up the left field bleachers for a 7-4 lead.

Trout homered in his fifth straight game at Yankee Stadium and became the fourth to hit five homers in a series against the Yankees. The others were Jimmie Foxx (1933), Darrell Evans (1985) and George Bell (1990), according to MLB researcher Sarah Langs.

Continue reading here

Angels box score

MLB standings

Shocking upset for UCLA women’s gymnastics

From Marisa Ingemi: A surprisingly shaky semifinal evening for UCLA gymnastics has the Bruins leaving Fort Worth early after finishing in third place in the NCAA national semifinals.

An early fall from Jordan Chiles followed by some wobbly vaults in the final rotations were too much to overcome as No. 13 seed Minnesota stunned in their final rotation on bars and national favorite Oklahoma was steady throughout. The top two teams advanced to the championship on Saturday.

The No. 4 seed Bruins scored a 197.2750, 0.1875 behind Oklahoma and Minnesota and just ahead of No. 9 seed Arkansas, which was also eliminated. UCLA was the only top-four seed that didn’t advance.

Chiles took the individual floor title with a 9.9750 score, her second NCAA floor championship.

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Rams unveil new uniforms

Matthew Stafford shows off the Rams’ new white uniforms.

(Brevin Townsell / Rams)

From Gary Klein: The Rams’ bone-colored uniforms have been sent to the graveyard.

In a release on Thursday, the team unveiled updated Royal Blue and white uniforms and announced subtle changes to logos as part of what the Rams described as “a refined brand and uniform refresh.”

Later this year, according to the release, the Rams will announce two alternate uniforms to go along with the revamped Royal Blue and white ensembles and the black “Midnite Mode” rivalry uniform they debuted last season in a game against the Seattle Seahawks at SoFi Stadium.

But the team “removed the ‘Bone’ uniform from the rotation,” the release said.

The Rams also made other subtle changes. The “LA” monogram no longer includes gradient coloring. The Rams head logo has been “enhanced to appear bolder and tougher for a fiercer expression, and the horn features a sharper, more defined point,” the release said.

Continue reading here

UCLA gymnastics could win title

From Marisa Ingemi: UCLA could earn another national title this weekend.

Led by Olympic gold medalist Jordan Chiles, the Bruins’ gymnastics squad is having its best season since 2018 and will compete in Fort Worth in an NCAA national semifinal on Thursday for a spot in Saturday’s championship meet.

The Bruins haven’t won an NCAA gymnastics championship in eight years, a long gap for the seven-time champions known for developing Olympic talent.

UCLA will compete in a semifinal against Oklahoma, Arkansas and Minnesota. The Bruins will start on the bars, then go to the beam, floor and vault.

Continue reading here

Kings lose to Flames

Arsenii Sergeev made 27 saves in his first NHL start, Zayne Parekh broke a third-period tie and the Calgary Flames beat the playoff-bound Kings 3-1 on Thursday night to end the season.

The Kings learned during the game that they’d be the second wild-card in the Western Conference and face NHL regular-season champion Colorado in the first round — with Game 1 on Sunday in Denver.

The Kings finished 35-27-20. Earlier Thursday, Edmonton took second place in the Pacific Division with a 6-1 home victory over Vancouver, and the Ducks won 5-4 at Nashville to finish third.

Continue reading here

Kings summary

NHL standings

Kings (vs. Avalanche) and Ducks (vs. Oilers) face tough first-round task in NHL playoffs

Kings playoffs schedule

All times Pacific

Sunday: Kings at Colorado, noon, TNT, truTV, HBO Max
Tuesday: Kings at Colorado, 7 p.m., ESPN
Thursday: Colorado at Kings, 7 p.m., TNT, truTV, HBO Max
Sunday, April 26: Colorado at Kings, 1:30 p.m., TNT, truTV, HBO Max
*Wed., April 29: Kings at Colorado, TBD
*Friday, May 1: Colorado at Kings, TBD
*Sunday, May 3: Kings at Colorado, TBD

*- If necessary

Ducks defeat the Predators

Troy Terry scored on a power play with 2:54 left, and the Ducks beat the Nashville Predators 5-4 Thursday night putting them close to clinching the third seed in the Pacific Division for the postseason.

The Ducks came into the regular-season finale third in the Pacific with five different scenarios still possible to lock down the final playoff slots. This win, combined with Edmonton needing only a point against visiting Vancouver, means the Ducks likely start the first round Monday at Edmonton.

The Ducks also took the season series against Nashville 2-1, though the Ducks go into the postseason 2-6-2 over their final 10.

Continue reading here

Ducks summary

NHL standings

Ducks playoffs schedule

All times Pacific

Monday: Ducks at Edmonton, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Wednesday: Ducks at Edmonton, 7 p.m., TBS, HBO Max
Friday: Edmonton at Ducks, 7 p.m., TNT, truTV, HBO Max)
Sunday: Edmonton at Ducks, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
*Tuesday, April 28: Ducks at Edmonton, TBD
*Thursday, April 30: Edmonton at Ducks, TBD
*Saturday, May 2: Ducks at Edmonton, TBD

*-if necessary

This day in sports history

1939 — Joe Louis knocks out Jack Roper at 2:20 of the first round in Los Angeles to retain the world heavyweight title.

1967 — Italian boxer Nino Benvenuti beats American Emile Griffith in a 15-round points decision to win world middleweight crown.

1976 — Australian tennis star Evonne Goolagong Cawley wins her second WTA Tour Championship at the Los Angeles Sports Arena; beats Chris Evert.

1982 — The Denver Nuggets’ Alex English, Dan Issel and Kiki Vandeweghe each average 20 points a game, the first front court to do so since Bob Pettit, Cliff Hagan and Clyde Lovellette of St. Louis in 1961.

1987 — Julius Erving of the Philadelphia 76ers becomes the third player to score 30,000 points in his pro career. Erving scores 38 points to join Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

1994 — Carl Lewis and his Santa Monica Track Club teammates rewrite their world record in the 800-meter relay at the Mt. San Antonio College Relays. Lewis, Mike Marsh, Leroy Burrell and Floyd Heard are timed at 1:18.68, breaking the record of 1:19.11 they had set on April 25, 1992.

1995 — Wayne Gretzky reaches 2,500 career points when he sets up a power-play goal by Rob Blake in the Kings’ 5-2 loss to Calgary.

1997 — The New Jersey Devils’ Martin Brodeur becomes the second NHL goalie to score in the playoffs. Brodeur’s empty net goal caps a three-goal third period that gives the Devils a 5-2 win and a 1-0 lead in a first-round series against Montreal.

1999 — Quarterbacks go 1-2-3 in the NFL Draft as Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith go to Cleveland, Philadelphia and Cincinnati — the first quarterback trifecta since 1971.

2006 — Sidney Crosby, scores three assists in Pittsburgh’s 6-1 win over the New York Islanders to become the youngest player in NHL history to score 100 points in a season. The 18-year-old becomes the seventh NHL rookie to reach the 100-point mark.

2011 — Jimmie Johnson wins the Aaron’s 499, edging Clint Bowyer by about a foot. The official margin of 0.002 seconds, ties for the closest finish in NASCAR Sprint Cup history.

2018 — Brayden McNabb scores against his former team in the second period, lifting Vegas to a 1-0 victory over the Kings that makes the Golden Knights the first expansion team in NHL history to sweep its first playoff series. Marc-Andre Fleury turns in another stellar performance, stopping 31 shots as the Knights finish off their fourth one-goal victory of the series.

Compiled by the Associated Press

This day in baseball history

1932 — New York first baseman Bill Terry tied an NL record with 21 putouts as the Giants beat Boston 5-0 behind Hal Schumacher’s two-hitter.

1951 — In his first major league game, Mickey Mantle went 1-for-4 in the New York Yankees’ 5-0 victory over the Boston Red Sox.

1953 — Mickey Mantle cleared the bleachers at Griffith Stadium with a 565-foot home run off Chuck Stobbs. The shot came in the fifth inning of a 7-3 win over the Senators.

1964 — The New York Mets lost their first game at Shea Stadium, falling 4-3 to the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s Willie Stargell hit the first homer at Shea.

1969 — Bill Stoneman of Montreal pitched a 7-0 no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies in the 10th game of the Expos’ existence.

1976 — Mike Schmidt of the Philadelphia Phillies hit four consecutive home runs and a single in an 18-16, 10-inning victory over the Cubs in Wrigley Field. Hitting .167 going into the game, he connected twice off Rick Reuschel, once off Rick’s brother, Paul, and once off Darold Knowles. He drove in eight runs.

1983 — Nolan Ryan strikes out seven Expos in a 6-3 Houston victory to become only the second pitcher in major league history to record 3,500 career strikeouts.

2000 — Major League Baseball owners vote to approve the $96 million sale of the Kansas City Royals to team chairman David Glass.

2001 — Barry Bonds became the 17th major leaguer to hit 500 home runs. Bonds’ two-run, eighth-inning drive off Terry Adams went into San Francisco Bay to lead the Giants over the Dodgers 3-2.

2008 — Troy Tulowitzki’s RBI double with two outs in the 22nd inning scored Willy Taveras and the Colorado Rockies beat the San Diego Padres 2-1 in the longest game in the majors in nearly 15 years, a 6-hour, 16-minute marathon.

2008 — Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann hit consecutive home runs in a span of 12 pitches in the fifth inning off Florida’s Ricky Nolasco in Atlanta’s 8-0 win.

2009 — Jason Kubel completed the ninth cycle in Twins history with a go-ahead grand slam in the eighth inning that helped Minnesota to an 11-9 victory over the Angels.

2010 — Ubaldo Jimenez pitched the first no-hitter in the Colorado Rockies’ 18-year history, dominating the Atlanta Braves in a 4-0 victory. Jimenez (3-0) walked six — all in the first five innings. He was helped by Dexter Fowler’s diving backhanded catch in left-center field in the seventh inning.

2010 — Jose Reyes hit a sacrifice fly in the 20th inning and the New York Mets beat the St. Louis Cardinals 2-1 in the longest game in the majors in two years. Jeff Francoeur also had a sacrifice fly for New York in the 19th inning, snapping a scoreless tie, but Yadier Molina singled in Albert Pujols with two out in the bottom half. St. Louis left the bases loaded in the 10th, 12th and 14th and stranded 22 runners, including 14 in extra innings.

2012 — Jamie Moyer, 49, became the oldest pitcher to win a major league game. He threw seven masterful innings and Dexter Fowler hit a two-run homer, helping the Colorado Rockies hold on for a 5-3 win over the San Diego Padres. Moyer’s 268th win tied him with Hall of Famer Jim Palmer for 34th on the career list.

2014 — Major League Baseball suspended Seattle Mariners first baseman Ji-Man Choi 50 games following a positive test for a performance-enhancing substance.

Compiled by the Associated Press

Until next time…

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at houston.mitchell@latimes.com. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

Tehran, Iran – United States President Donald Trump’s announcements about securing major concessions from Tehran have riled supporters of the Iranian establishment, prompting rejections and clarifications from the authorities.

Several current and former senior officials, state media and the Islamic Republic’s hardcore backers expressed anger, frustration, and confusion after the US leader made a series of claims, with days left on a two-week ceasefire reached on April 8.

Trump on Friday said Iran and the US would jointly dig up the enriched uranium buried under the rubble of bombed Iranian nuclear sites, and transfer it to the US. He claimed Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium on its soil.

He also said the Strait of Hormuz had been opened and would never be closed again, while the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports remained in place, and sea mines were removed or were in the process of being removed.

Trump also emphasised that Iran would not receive billions of dollars of its own frozen assets abroad due to US sanctions, and that the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was completely unrelated to Iran.

Amid Pakistan’s ongoing efforts to mediate another round of negotiations, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Iranian delegation to the Islamabad talks earlier this month, rejected all of Trump’s claims.

“With these lies, they did not win the war, and they certainly will not get anywhere in negotiations either,” he posted on X early on Saturday.

By Saturday noon, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) released a statement, saying the Strait of Hormuz is once again heavily restricted and under “strict management” of the armed forces. It cited continued “acts of piracy and maritime theft under the so-called label of a blockade” by Washington as the reason.

‘Haze of confusion’

In the hours it took between Trump’s flurry of announcements on Friday and official responses from Iranian authorities, supporters of the establishment voiced serious concerns about any major concessions.

“Is there no Muslim out there to talk to the people a bit about what is happening?!” Ezzatollah Zarghami, a former state television chief and current member of the Supreme Cyberspace Council that controls the heavily restricted internet in Iran, wrote on X.

Alireza Zakani, the hardline mayor of Tehran, said if any of Trump’s claims are true, then the Iranian establishment must beware “not to gift the vile enemy in negotiations what it failed to achieve in the field”.

A fan account on X for Saeed Jalili, an ultrahardline member of the Supreme National Security Council who has opposed any deals with the US for decades, said “dissent” may be at play. It said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen or heard from outside of several written statements attributed to him, must release a voice or video message to confirm what is happening.

Jalili’s main account distanced itself from the comment, saying the fan account – which was subsequently deleted – was a sign of “infiltration” by enemies of Iran who were trying to sow discord.

Iranian state media released another written statement attributed to Khamenei on Saturday to mark Army Day, but made no mention of the political drama unfolding hours earlier, or the negotiations with the US.

The dissonance was clearly on display on state television and other state-linked media on Friday, especially those affiliated with the IRGC.

Multiple state television hosts and analysts harshly attacked Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi because he tweeted on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was “declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation”.

One of the hosts demanded Araghchi must immediately clarify. Another said the top diplomat’s tweet was in English, and since the Iranian people do not have access to X due to the state-imposed near-total internet shutdown for seven weeks, the message was not directed at the people.

With a huge Hezbollah flag in the background, a furious presenter on state television’s Channel 3 claimed that Araghchi was somehow “the representative of the people of Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq” because they are a part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” of armed forces, so he should demand concessions on their behalf from Trump.

Morteza Mahmoudvand, a representative for Tehran in the Iranian parliament, went as far as saying Araghchi would have been impeached had it not been for “the excuse of war”.

The Fars and Tasnim news sites, which are affiliated with the IRGC, also heavily criticised Araghchi and called for further explanations on Friday evening, with Fars arguing that “Iranian society was plunged into a haze of confusion.”

Armed supporters in the streets

Critical comments from supporters of the Iranian government also flooded social media, including local messaging applications and the comments section of state-run sites.

“We took to the streets every night with clear demands, but you shook hands with the killer of our supreme leader and handed our strait to the Zionists,” one user wrote on Friday in the local app Baleh, in reference to Israel.

“After all these years of sanctions and war and costs imposed on the people, if you are to give up the uranium and the strait, then why did you play with the people’s livelihoods and the blood of the martyrs for so long?” another user wrote.

A large number of analysts and media personalities, including Hossein Shariatmadar, the head of the Kayhan newspaper, who was appointed by late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also voiced criticism and demanded answers on Fars and other outlets.

Regardless of whether there will be more mediated negotiations in Pakistan or whether the war will continue, Iran continues to encourage and arm backers to take to the streets to maintain control.

State media on Friday aired footage of more armed convoys moving through the streets of Tehran while waving the flags of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi and other groups. The video below shows women and children crewing heavy machineguns mounted on the back of pick-up trucks during a rally in downtown Tehran.

With no end in sight to the state-imposed internet shutdown that has wiped out millions of jobs in Iran, in addition to steel factories and other infrastructure that were destroyed, the Iranian economy continues to suffer.

The timing of the back-and-forth between Trump and the Iranian officials meant that oil prices dropped before Western markets closed on Friday, and the Iranian currency experienced more volatility.

The rial was priced at about 1.46 million against the US dollar on Saturday morning, the first day of the working week in Iran. But it shot back up to about 1.51 million after the IRGC announced the repeated closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports of Iranian gunboats opening fire on a tanker in strait, after Tehran said it is closing the waterway until the US lifts the blockade of its ports.

Iran says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz again, calling the decision a response to a continued blockade of its ports by the United States.

The Iranian military on Saturday said control of the strategic waterway, through which 20 percent of the global oil flows, has “returned to its previous state”, with reports saying Iranian gunboats fired at a merchant vessel as it attempted to ‌cross.

The closure of the strait came hours after it was reopened, with more than a dozen commercial ships passing through the waterway, after a US-mediated 10-day ceasefire deal was reached between Israel and Lebanon.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saturday said in a statement, cited by the Iranian media, that the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports represented “acts of piracy and maritime theft”, adding that the control over Hormuz is “under the strict management and control of the armed forces”.

“Until the US restores full freedom of navigation for vessels travelling from Iran to their destinations and back, the status of the Strait of Hormuz will remain tightly controlled and in its previous condition,” it said.

By 10:30 GMT on Saturday, no fewer than eight oil and gas tankers had crossed the strait, but at least as many ships appeared to have turned back, having begun to exit the Gulf, the AFP news agency reported.

The toing and froing over the strait cast doubt on US President Donald Trump’s optimism the day before, that a peace deal to end the US-Israel war on Iran was “very close”.

Trump had celebrated the reopening of the strait on Friday, but warned the US attacks would resume until Iran agreed to a deal, which included its nuclear programme.

“Maybe I won’t extend it,” Trump told reporters on board Air Force One about the temporary ceasefire agreement in place. “So you’ll have a blockade, and unfortunately we’ll have to start dropping bombs again.”

Asked whether a potential deal could be made in this short timeframe, Trump said: “I think it’s going to happen.”

But Iran says no date has been agreed for another round of peace talks, accusing the US of “betraying” diplomacy in all negotiations.

The conflicting and changing reports about the strait and how much freedom ships have to transit through it have deterred many vessels from crossing, according to John-Paul Rodrigue, a maritime shipping specialist at Texas A&M University.

“Ships have been attempting transit since the announcement, but it looks like many of them are heading back because the situation is unclear,” Rodrigue told Al Jazeera. “There is contradictory information being issued by all parties.”

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said “uncertainty is the name of the game” as far as the Strait of Hormuz is concerned.

“Iran is looking for a comprehensive end to the war across the region, security assurances, sanctions relief, the unfreezing of frozen assets, regional relations – and on top of all of that – the nuclear dossier and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium,” he said.

“But right now, uncertainty is the name of the game. The fragile situation makes it hard to talk about the possibility of successful negotiations down the road.”

Michael Shoebridge, Director of Strategic Analysis Australia, says the US may be forced to end its blockade of Iran in order to see the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Field Marshal Asim Munir leaves Tehran while premier Shehbaz Sharif heads home from Turkiye amid hopes of another round of US-Iran talks.

Pakistan’s army chief and the prime minister have wrapped up separate diplomatic visits aimed at advancing efforts to end the United States-Iran conflict, with Field Marshal Asim Munir leaving Tehran and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif returning from Turkiye.

Munir met Iran’s leadership and peace negotiators during a three-day visit to Tehran, a Pakistani military statement said on Saturday.

The visit demonstrated Pakistan’s “unwavering resolve to facilitate a negotiated settlement… and to promote peace, stability and prosperity,” the military said ahead of expected US-Iran talks in Islamabad in the coming days.

Munir held talks with the country’s president, foreign minister, parliament speaker and head of Iran’s military central command centre.

Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, led the Iranian delegation to Islamabad for peace talks with the US last week, the highest level face-to-face contact between Washington and Tehran in decades.

Those talks ended without agreement, and a ceasefire is due to expire on April 22.

But diplomacy has continued, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye to push the peace process.

His three-country trip concluded on Saturday, with Sharif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar departing a diplomacy forum in Antalya, according to statements from both officials.

“I leave Antalya [Turkish city] with fond memories and a renewed commitment to further strengthening the enduring fraternal bonds between our two nations, and to continuing our close cooperation to advance dialogue and diplomacy for lasting peace and stability in the region,” Sharif posted on X.

The flurry of diplomacy comes as further negotiations are expected in Pakistan in the coming days as Islamabad intensifies contacts with regional and global leaders in an effort to sustain momentum towards a US-Iran deal.

Pressure for a deal between the two countries has grown after Iran reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, hours after its reopening following the start of a ceasefire in Lebanon. Tehran accused the US of violating a deal to reopen the strategically important waterway.

Donald Trump has said a second round of talks with Iran could be held in Pakistan in the coming days. The New York Post reported that Trump praised Munir, saying he was “doing a great job”.

Reporting from Islamabad, Al Jazeera’s Kamal Hyder said Munir landed back home on Saturday as Pakistan prepared for another round of US-Iran talks expected “within the next few days”.

“We have also seen a lot of praise from the Trump administration on social media, praising the Pakistani leadership. So all eyes are on Islamabad. Serious differences remain, but there is a flurry of diplomatic activity and a hope and expectation that some sort of breakthrough may happen,” he said.

Brent crude falls more than 9 percent after Iran said it will reopen the strategic waterway, only to shut it down again over US blockade of its ports.

Oil prices have plummeted to their lowest point in weeks after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open for passage during a ceasefire in Lebanon, and United States President Donald Trump said he expected to ⁠reach a deal to end the war soon.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell more than 9 percent to $90.38 a barrel on Friday, taking it below $91 for the first time since March 10.

The plunge came after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait was “completely open” and would remain so for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which took effect on Friday.

Hailing Tehran’s announcement, Trump declared the waterway “ready for business and full passage,” but said the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports would remain in “full force” until the sides reached a peace deal.

On Saturday, however, Iran rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the key waterway as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.

The announcement came after Trump said the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the US, including on its nuclear programme.

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz and further limits would squeeze already constrained supply, driving prices higher once again.

Amid the escalation, Pakistani officials say they are trying for more talks between the US and Iran ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline.

Meanwhile, ship tracking data displayed by MarineTraffic earlier on Saturday showed a significant uptick in vessels crossing the strait, which is located between Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

“It’s busy out there, the busiest I’ve seen it since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed at the beginning of the war,” Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at maritime intelligence firm Windward, said in a post on X.

“Last night there were few ships taking the risk but overnight there seems to have been a change.”

While Iran allowed a limited number of vetted ships to transit the waterway since the start of the war, traffic has remained at a trickle compared with pre-conflict levels.

The near-total closure of the strait has triggered one of the worst energy shocks in history, driving up fuel prices and prompting governments to roll out emergency measures.

Oil prices have swung wildly since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, hitting a post-conflict peak of $119 a barrel on March 19.

There is another way to read the ongoing Middle East crisis, one that makes legible what standard analysis consistently struggles to explain. It begins not with capability but with the geometry of the system through which capability must travel to produce effects. The United States and its partners possess overwhelming military superiority over Iran, and that superiority is not in question, yet the conflict has produced a pattern that defies its logic. A superpower coalition has been unable to impose coherent strategic outcomes against an adversary operating through proxies, low-cost disruption, and the systematic exploitation of global commercial vulnerabilities.

Over the past two years, we have seen multiple instances of this kind of disruption with consequential effects on the global system. Houthi drones force the rerouting of global shipping, with Red Sea cargo volumes falling by roughly 50% through early 2024 as major carriers diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to two weeks to transit times, driving freight costs sharply higher across European markets, and costing Egypt nearly $800 million per month at peak in lost Suez Canal revenue. A non-state network spanning Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Gaza has absorbed sustained air campaigns, targeted eliminations of senior commanders, and repeated ground operations without losing its capacity to generate coordinated pressure across multiple theaters simultaneously. The asymmetry seems to follow a deliberate strategic logic that raw power analysis struggles to read, precisely because the conflict operates on a surface that capability assessments were never designed to map. What this suggests is that the decisive variable is not what actors possess but whether the relationships connecting them can transmit coordinated action when the system is under strain.

When that system cannot coordinate, something important breaks down. An alliance that formally exists but faces operational friction at every decision point ceases to be an alliance in any meaningful strategic sense. A security guarantee that cannot be transmitted rapidly to the partner it is meant to protect has, in effect, already failed its primary function. It follows that the gap between what a system formally is and what it can actually do under pressure is not a secondary consideration but the surface on which this conflict is being decided. Conventional analysis, calibrated to count warheads and assess intentions, consistently leaves this gap unmapped.

Analysts know that Saudi Arabia’s OPEC production decisions have repeatedly positioned Riyadh against Washington’s economic preferences, they know that European energy dependency complicates transatlantic alignment, and they know that Iran’s proxy network extends across five countries and absorbs military pressure without fracturing. Yet what the available frameworks cannot do is convert that knowledge into a structural reading of the system. They show that these conditions exist. What they cannot show is how those conditions interact, where they compound, and what the aggregate geometry of their interaction means for whether coordinated action is possible at all.

Power analysis was built to read capability differentials between states, and it does that well. Alliance theory was built to read the conditions under which formal commitments hold or fail, and it does that too. Neither, however, was built to read the operational weight of the ties through which capability and commitment must travel to produce effects.

The instruments available are calibrated to answer questions different from those the current situation poses. Deploying them on a problem they were not designed to read produces the consistent failure to explain what is actually happening that has marked analysis of this conflict from the start.

Adjacency mapping is an instrument designed to read that gap by mapping connectivity, by which I mean their operational weight, specifically their capacity to carry coordinated action under strain. What distinguishes it from standard approaches is its unit of analysis. Rather than the actors themselves, it treats the weight of the relationships as primary. The question it asks is not who holds power but whether the ties connecting power-holders can transmit that power when the system needs them to. Two states can be formally allied, operationally integrated in name, and structurally disconnected at the same time, and nothing in standard analysis will tell you which of those conditions is actually operative until the moment of crisis reveals it.

The instrument assigns each significant relationship in the system a weight between 0 and 1, reflecting how frequently the two actors interact operationally, how reliably information moves between them, how the tie has behaved under recent stress, and how quickly it transmits pressure when the system is under strain. At the higher end of the scale, a weight at or above 0.6 indicates that coordination approaches automaticity, and the tie carries load without constant investment to maintain it. Around 0.3, friction accumulates. In this setting, decisions require deliberate effort at every juncture, slowing the system and making it susceptible to gradual degradation that never triggers a visible rupture. At or below 0.2, the tie has effectively ceased to function as a transmission pathway, leaving the actors operationally disconnected regardless of what their formal relationship nominally says.

These weights are analytical judgements calibrated against observable evidence. In other words, their value lies in making visible what experienced analysts already carry as intuition and in giving that intuition a structure precise enough to argue about. The numbers are therefore analytical judgements, not measurements. A more rigorous application would derive them from quantifiable indicators across each dimension, including military interoperability, intelligence exchange depth, crisis responsiveness, economic interdependence, and signaling consistency, averaged and weighted systematically. That work lies beyond the scope of this piece, but the architecture is designed to accommodate it.

There is a risk management dimension to this reading that is worth making explicit. Standard geopolitical risk assessment focuses on actor-level variables such as regime stability, military capability, and leadership intentions. What adjacency mapping adds is a structural layer that those assessments typically miss. A coalition whose load-bearing relationships operate in the friction zone is exposed to a category of risk that capability assessments do not capture and that becomes visible only when the system is read structurally.

What the matrix adds is the ability to see how compound weakness across multiple relationships produces cascading effects that bilateral assessment alone would struggle to predict. A system whose dominant actor holds several weak partnerships faces more than friction. As a consequence, the geometry of those weaknesses determines whether any concerted response is structurally possible at all. Aggregate capability becomes, in that light, secondary to that question.

If we apply this to the Middle East security complex, the instrument produces one possible reading. This reading differs considerably from the picture conventional analysis generates. Its value is not in the precision of the numbers but in making the system’s geometry visible enough to argue about.

The matrix below maps operational connectivity across the system’s key actors. The numbers are analytical judgements, not measurements.

The geometry they make visible is what matters here.

The matrix is intentionally non-symmetric. Where operational influence flows asymmetrically between two actors, the weights reflect that directionality.

The matrix reveals, in this light, a system whose dominant actors are connected at fundamentally different weights. And more significantly, its most important bilateral relationship is operating in the friction zone. It’s formally excluded adversary has constructed the only alternative connectivity architecture in the system. What this implies is that the geometry of the conflict runs considerably deeper than standard alliance analysis tends to suggest.

On the coalition side, the US has high adjacency with Qatar, Bahrain, Israel, and Kuwait, ties that enable rapid coordination and require little maintenance, constituting the operational backbone of what Washington can actually activate quickly.

Its relationship with Saudi Arabia, however, sits at 0.4. That number is analytically more significant than almost anything else in the matrix. Saudi Arabia remains, on most readings, the relationship on which Gulf order coherence formally depends, the anchor of the security architecture since the 1970s, and it is operating in the friction zone where every significant decision requires renegotiation from scratch rather than flowing through an established channel. Saudi Arabia’s invitation to join BRICS in August 2023, yuan-denominated oil transactions with China, and its participation in the Chinese-brokered rapprochement with Iran in March 2023 all point in the same direction. Riyadh is hedging structurally toward China and the broader non-Western order, a posture that sits uneasily alongside its formal security alignment with Washington. Taken together, these are not isolated political episodes but evidence of a tie that has been operating below the coordination threshold for years and whose weakness is, on this reading, the system’s most consequential structural vulnerability.

Through the normalization architecture, the UAE has arguably become the system’s most structurally reliable node at 0.6 with both the US and Israel, its operational integration exceeding Saudi Arabia’s despite Saudi Arabia’s formal primacy. The Abraham Accords of September 2020 established the formal foundation for that integration. The operational depth it has since generated, across intelligence sharing, defence cooperation, and coordinated positioning on Iran, has made the UAE the coalition’s most functionally connected Gulf partner. Oman holds what is perhaps the system’s most anomalous position, meaningful adjacency with both the US coalition and Iran simultaneously, a profile no other state actor in the matrix replicates. That structural position gave Oman the back-channel role it played through the early phases of the conflict, with documented precedent in the secret US-Iran nuclear negotiations that began in Muscat in 2012 and ran through 2013. As the conflict has intensified, Pakistan has assumed the primary mediation function, but Oman’s position as a quiet facilitator has not disappeared; it has simply been supplemented by a node with more direct access to both capitals at this particular moment.

Pakistan has emerged as the conflict’s primary mediation node, hosting the highest-level direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran since 1979 and brokering the April 2026 ceasefire. That role reflects a structural position the matrix makes legible: high Saudi adjacency, a functioning Iran tie, and a rehabilitated relationship with Washington that no other regional actor currently combines. China’s influence over both Pakistani and Iranian decision-making operates as an exogenous pressure that the matrix only partially captures, and Pakistan’s own domestic constraints, including its difficulty developing direct channels with the IRGC, limit how far that mediation role can ultimately reach.

Iran’s position is where the matrix becomes most analytically revealing. Across the state actors in the system, Iran’s adjacency sits at or near fragmentation, built up through sanctions, absent operational channels, and decades of adversarial signalling that have left Tehran formally isolated from the coordination architecture the United States and its partners have constructed.

And yet the only high-weight tie Iran holds is with its proxy network at 0.7. That single number may go further toward explaining the architecture of the entire campaign than any other figure in the matrix.

It is an asymmetric relationship in which Tehran’s capacity to activate and direct exceeds the reverse influence those actors exert over Iranian strategic decisions. What that single structural condition implies goes further toward explaining the architecture of Iranian pressure operations than most analyses of Iranian intentions or capabilities tend to reach. Iran is geographically central and formally excluded. It is precisely that combination, positioned to apply pressure across every theatre while bearing none of the coordination costs that formal inclusion imposes. That, from this vantage point, is what makes legible a strategy that standard analysis, focused on actors and their capabilities, cannot see.

Seen through this lens, what Iran is doing across the region is something more structurally ambitious than a military campaign. It is attempting to restructure the matrix itself. The goal appears to be less about battlefield victory than about the gradual degradation of the ties connecting the United States to its regional partners, below the threshold at which coordinated response becomes automatic, eroding the will to keep paying the price of alignment while simultaneously building alternative adjacency in the nodes where US-aligned connectivity is weakest.

The Houthi campaign against Red Sea shipping is calibrated to stay below the threshold that would compel a unified military response. It introduces friction into the economic relationships connecting European states to the Gulf system, raising the cost of alignment with Washington’s regional posture without forcing the kind of direct confrontation that would unite the coalition. Strikes on Gulf infrastructure follow the same calibration, persistent enough to signal that the US security guarantee cannot insulate its partners from costs, yet restrained enough to avoid crossing the point at which coalition fragmentation becomes irrelevant because a unified response becomes compulsory. Across Iraq and Syria, simultaneous pressure from affiliated militias prevents the concentration of attention that sustained coalition coordination requires. In each case, the instrument targets a relationship rather than a capability, specifically the weight of the ties whose degradation would restructure the system’s geometry without requiring Iran to displace the existing order directly.

The US-Saudi tie at 0.4 is the primary focus of that degradation effort. Should that threshold be breached, Saudi Arabia hedges. As hedging reduces operational interactivity the tie weakens further. The process risks becoming self-reinforcing. Iranian military superiority over any individual partner is not required to sustain it.

The same logic extends across European actors, though not uniformly. Germany’s industrial exposure to energy price volatility, France’s residual strategic autonomy instinct, and the EU’s institutional preference for de-escalation all produce different thresholds for continued alignment with Washington. Their shared energy dependency gives them asymmetric stakes in the Gulf system’s stability, but their appetite for risk diverges from Washington’s in ways that are not identical across capitals, and each time Iran forces a decision about the cost of continued alignment, that divergence fragments the coalition’s coordination surface further.

By sustaining operational ties with non-state actors across the region, Iran is constructing alternative adjacency in precisely the nodes where US-aligned connectivity is weakest. These are populations and factions that the existing regional order has excluded from the dominant coalition’s coordination architecture. Deliberately so — Iran is building in the structural gaps the system leaves open. Displacing the existing order appears unnecessary. Becoming the more reliable pole of alignment for the actors that order has failed to integrate may be sufficient. All that is required is that the order fragment sufficiently at its margins for that offer to appear credible, and the current trajectory of US-Saudi friction and European hedging is steadily moving in that direction.

The coalition’s instruments are calibrated to military threats. The system, however, is failing along a different surface entirely, or so this reading suggests. The formal architecture remains largely intact, security guarantees have not been withdrawn, Gulf states remain formally aligned, and normalisation agreements hold. And yet the operational adjacency that gives that architecture its functional weight is under sustained pressure from an actor that has correctly identified the gap between formal commitment and operational tie as the system’s primary vulnerability. That identification is outpacing the coalition’s capacity to respond.

On this reading, the surface on which the conflict appears to be decided is not the one the coalition is defending.

What adjacency mapping reveals is a story about geometry. The system’s dominant actor holds formal commitments at weights the system cannot sustain under the pressure being applied to it. Its adversary, in turn, has built the only alternative coordination architecture in the space that those weakening ties leave open. The conflict is likely to be determined by which ties the system can no longer afford to lose under sustained and calibrated pressure. The question is whether the actors currently holding those ties in the friction zone can rebuild them to the coordination threshold before the process of degradation becomes irreversible. That is a question that capability assessments are not well-positioned to answer, and one that a structural reading of the system’s connectivity at least helps to make visible.

Leo is the third pontiff to visit the fossil fuel-rich country after John Paul II in 1992 and Benedict XVI in 2009.

Pope Leo XIV is set to arrive in Angola on the third leg of a landmark African tour that has unfolded alongside an escalating war of words with United States President Donald Trump over the Middle East conflict.

Leo, the third pontiff to visit the fossil fuel-rich country after John Paul II in 1992 and Benedict XVI in 2009, is expected to arrive at 3pm local time (14:00 GMT) on Saturday in the capital, Luanda, where billboards bearing his image have been erected to welcome him.

The pope, who visited Cameroon for three days before flying to Luanda, is also slated to meet Angola’s President Joao Lourenco and deliver a speech in the country, where about 44 percent of the population identifies as Catholic.

Leo’s increasingly forceful calls for world peace are likely to resonate in Angola, which emerged in 2002 from a 27-year civil war that erupted after independence from Portugal in 1975.

Throughout his Africa visit, the first pope from the US has issued pointed warnings about corruption, the exploitation of the continent’s vast resources and the dangers of artificial intelligence.

‘Stick to matters of morality’

The pope’s Africa visit has also been marked by a clash with Trump, who has called the 70-year-old head of the Catholic Church “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy”. Trump had also shared what appeared to be an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus, prompting a backlash from leaders across the religious spectrum.

The pope had responded by saying he was not afraid of Trump and that he would continue to speak out against war, marking a rare public clash between a pontiff and a sitting US president.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Trump said he had the right to disagree with the pontiff. “I have no disagreement with the fact the pope can say what he wants, and I want him to say what he wants, but I can disagree,” he said.

After US Vice President JD Vance urged the Vatican to “stick to matters of morality”, Leo said on Thursday that the world was “being ravaged by a handful of tyrants” and intensified criticism of those using religion to justify war.

During his stop in Cameroon, Leo also urged the country’s leaders to tackle corruption and condemned “those who, in the name of profit, continue to seize the African continent to exploit and plunder it”.

Leo’s warnings against corruption and exploitation may resonate in Angola, where one-third of the population lives below the poverty line despite vast fossil fuel reserves.

On Sunday, he will celebrate an open-air Mass in Kilamba, outside Luanda, before travelling by helicopter to Muxima, home to a 16th-century church and major pilgrimage site.

On Monday, Leo is due to travel to Saurimo to visit a retirement home and hold another Mass. He will then fly to Equatorial Guinea, the final stop of his 18,000km (11,185-mile) African tour.

England’s Lionesses are no strangers to making history.

The past decade has been rich in landmark moments; a first tournament medal, a first major trophy, and a first title defence – on foreign soil to boot.

When Sarina Wiegman’s side play Iceland in Reykjavik on Saturday (17:30 BST) they will reach another milestone – the 500th fixture for England’s senior women’s team.

The game is important for securing qualification for next year’s World Cup in Brazil, with England keen to win more silverware in the famous white shirt.

But regardless of the result, the match will be etched in history as a reminder of how far the English women’s game has come.

In 1921, the Football Association (FA) banned women’s football, considering the game “most unsuitable for females”, external.

The decision consigned women’s football to park pitches and small venues for half a century before the decision was overturned in 1971.

To mark 500 not out, BBC Sport takes a look at 11 defining moments in the history of England’s women.