money

Oil prices rise as bond sell-off hits global markets

International crude oil prices climbed further on Tuesday morning amid uncertainty over US-Iran talks, as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway crucial to oil shipments, faded.


ADVERTISEMENT


ADVERTISEMENT

Hopes that Middle East tensions would ease were dashed at the weekend when Donald Trump rejected Iran’s offer of a seven-day truce.

Mediators are working with the US and Iran on a deal to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, officials told the Associated Press. The disruption to shipping through the waterway has affected global trade and added to inflation.

Iran has proposed reopening the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and eases sanctions, among other conditions. Washington says any deal must also address Iran’s nuclear programme. Officials said the two sides disagree over the timing of concessions and who should act first.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained nearly 2% and traded above $107 a barrel early Tuesday, well above its price of roughly $72 a barrel in late February before the Iran war.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to more than $94 a barrel.

High oil prices have renewed inflation concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again next month. Government bond prices have fallen as a result, pushing yields to multi-year highs.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5.27% on Monday, its highest level in 19 years, following a rise of nearly half a percentage point through September. Yields rise when bond prices fall, and this month’s sell-off is the heaviest in two years.

The US two-year yield has risen even further, climbing by more than 0.57 percentage points this month to nearly 5%. In Europe, Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield reached 3.62%, its highest level since June 2009.

Government bond yields help set borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages to company loans. As yields rise, governments, businesses and households face higher costs, while stocks can become less attractive to investors.

In Japan, a 40-year government bond auction drew its strongest demand since 2020 as relatively high yields attracted investors, according to Bloomberg.

Stock markets also struggled after all three main Wall Street indexes fell on Monday.

In Europe, Tuesday’s open showed a mixed reaction.

The Euro Stoxx 50 was flat in early trading while the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 traded 0.2% higher.

The UK’s FTSE 100, Italy’s FTSE MIB, Spain’s IBEX 35 and the Netherlands’ AEX all traded between 0.1% and 0.2% higher than their Monday close.

However, France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX 30 both dropped about 0.5%.

Over in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.3%, South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.6%. Hong Kong-traded shares of Shein fell 11.7% after the online retailer reported a 67% fall in quarterly adjusted net profit from a year earlier.

The Shanghai Composite was little changed following a report from China’s official Xinhua News Agency late Monday that its State Council had discussed ways to make economic policies more effective.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down more than 0.1% by early morning in Europe.

Australia’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.6% on Tuesday, a 15-year high, as rising oil prices fuelled inflation. The Reserve Bank said higher fuel costs were pushing up prices across the economy, while growth and inflation had been stronger than expected.

The US dollar edged up to 157.42 Japanese yen from 157.39 yen. The euro fell to $1.1362 from $1.1371.

Gold remained near $4,160 after steep losses on Monday, as expectations of further rate rises weighed on the metal, which pays no interest.

Investors are also awaiting key US inflation and jobs data this week that could influence the Fed’s next decision. Markets are pricing in another rate rise at the end of October.

Additional sources • AP

Source link

Precision Optics forecasts $30M-$33M fiscal 2027 revenue amid temporary 40% Q1 satellite reduction (NASDAQ:POCI)

Earnings Call Insights: Precision Optics Corporation, Inc. (POCI) Q4 fiscal 2026

Management view

  • “Fiscal 2026 was a year of transformation for Precision Optics. We began the year with strong production demand and considerable work to prepare for higher volume production with

Seeking Alpha’s Disclaimer: This article was automatically generated by an AI tool based on content available on the Seeking Alpha website, and has not been curated or reviewed by humans. Due to inherent limitations in using AI-based tools, the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such articles cannot be guaranteed. This article is intended for informational purposes only. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.

Source link

Vail Resorts projects $805M-$865M FY 2027 resort EBITDA as it plans to recapture demand through lift tickets (NYSE:MTN)

Earnings Call Insights: Vail Resorts (MTN) Q4 2026

Management View

  • “Looking back at fiscal 2026, while it was an exceptionally challenging weather year, it also demonstrated the resilience of our business model” (CEO & Executive Chairman Robert Katz) and “our advanced commitment strategy and resource efficiency transformation

Seeking Alpha’s Disclaimer: This article was automatically generated by an AI tool based on content available on the Seeking Alpha website, and has not been curated or reviewed by humans. Due to inherent limitations in using AI-based tools, the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such articles cannot be guaranteed. This article is intended for informational purposes only. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.

Source link

UBS $125M Fine Signals Crackdown on AML Gaps

A record fine on the Swiss bank highlights U.S. regulators shifting focus to fill anti-money laundering gaps.

This article appears in the October issue of Global Finance Magazine.

A record $125 million fine handed out to UBS by U.S. regulators in August could herald increased scrutiny of banks.

How banks react to stricter compliance with anti-money laundering laws will be key as U.S. foreign policy and enforcement go together.

“As sanctions and tariffs continue to define U.S. foreign policy, this trend will likely continue. The U.S. and European banks are intertwined the most with the global economy, so the probability of them being under increased scrutiny is likely,” said Salar Ghahramani, associate professor of business law and international law & policy at Penn State Abington.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) settlement resolves allegations made by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst for Morningstar, suggests that the fine is a result of the market that the Swiss bank targets. 

“These banks are particularly exposed to the risk of fines and regulatory intervention just by virtue of their business model. Banking, politically connected individuals, banking high-net-worth people, I think it exposes them to particular risk from an anti-money laundering perspective,” Scholtz said.

The fines were for not sufficiently monitoring 61,500 foreign exchange transactions and not flagging suspicious activity. The record amount is partly because UBS Group AG was fined $14.5 million in 2018 for similar activities with regulators discovering that remedial action had not been taken. 

“The 2018 fine may have convinced the UBS board that they were standing on very shaky PR and legal grounds due to the previous track record, likely propelling them to agree to the terms of the fine,” added Ghahramani.

Outcome-Focused Compliance

Although there is no current political push to modify AML laws, the UBS judgement may constitute shifting priorities by U.S. regulators.

 “The direction of AML regulations in the U.S. seems that it’s becoming more outcome-focused and less of a tick-box exercise. They really want banks to prove that they have a robust system in place rather than just ticking boxes,” Scholtz said.

How can banks protect themselves? By updating their risk management systems to ensure compliance through internal audits. The technical description of UBS’ settlement was unduly specific. Blaming an error in AML surveillance data feeds, a lack of verification of account holder addresses, no reliable unique identifier to match transactions, an absence of any exception queue and errors in the Excel spreadsheet used for foreign exchange transfers

“The announcement brings closure to this legacy matter. UBS has cooperated fully with its regulators and has made significant investments to remediate and strengthen its AML program in line with leading industry practices,” A UBS spokesperson said. 

Nic Wirtz is a contributing writer based in Guatemala.

Source link

EU pushes China to accept import quotas in bid to rebalance trade

Published on

Brussels and Beijing are fighting over quotas that would limit Chinese imports to the EU market, as the Europeans seek to rebalance their trade relationship with China, Euronews has learned.


ADVERTISEMENT


ADVERTISEMENT

Both started intense negotiations last June over EU and Chinese access to each other’s markets, with an October deadline set by the European Commission to reach “tanglible” results. However, China is pushing hard against the EU’s attempts to protect its market.

According to one person familiar with the matter, the Commission, which is negotiating on behalf of the 27 EU countries on trade issues, wants China to accept quotas on specific products.

However, it is unclear how China would accept and respect such quotas.

Trade defence mechanisms delayed

According to media reports, so-called “voluntary export restrictions” have been pushed by the Commission for electric vehicles. But Beijing’s trade minister rejected them in a statement earlier this month.

If China accepted such a system of restrictions, it would mean that it voluntarily limits its exports to the EU on the basis of a deal negotiated with the Commission, sparing the EU from adopting defensive trade measures that might be seen as an aggressive move by China.

Technical negotiations are in their final stretch as the October deadline is approaching.

Director General of DG Trade at the Commission, Ditte Juul Jørgensen, travelled to China last week for two days of heated discussions, and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is due to be in Beijing on 8 and 9 October for political talks, ahead of a key meeting of EU leaders in Brussels.

To give negotiations a chance, the Commission has delayed the adoption of trade defence mechanisms aiming to protect the EU chemical industry, according to another person familiar with the matter. The chemical industry is one of the sectors most threatened by Chinese competition in the EU.

However, the threat also targets other sectors, making the rebalancing of the trade relationship “existential” for the Europeans, EU Industry and Trade Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné told Euronews last week.

According to the Commission, the EU already lost 250,000 industrial jobs last year, particularly concentrated in energy-intensive sectors and automotive supply chains.

Source link

$200 million-plus spent fighting and supporting billionaire tax

Opponents of the billionaire tax on the November ballot have vastly outraised the proposal’s supporters, with the anti-Proposition 40 effort and the backers of two other ballot measures crafted to nullify it raising $187 million compared to the $32 million raised by boosters of the wealth tax, according to campaign finance documents filed with the state.

The reports, filed Thursday, account for donations through Sept. 19 and do not include several million dollars that have poured into campaign coffers in recent days. The numbers are expected to vastly increase before the Nov. 3 election.

The bulk of the money raised by the proponents of Proposition 40, which would enact a one-time 5% tax on California billionaires’ assets, appears to have been spent on gathering signatures to qualify the measure for the November ballot. The campaign had only $207,000 in the bank, according to the latest campaign finance reports.

A leader of the union that crafted the proposal accused wealthy Californians who are spending heavily against the measure of lying to voters. The measure is designed to offset $100 billion in impending federal healthcare funding cuts expected to impacts millions of Californians.

“The billionaires take and take — tax break after tax break — and now they’re spending that money to deceive voters and avoid paying their fair share,” said Suzanne Jimenez, the chief of staff of the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West. “Voters want their money back from the billionaires and want local emergency rooms to stay open. California does not need more tax breaks for billionaires. California needs emergency rooms for patients, hospitals that stay open, and healthcare people can access and afford.”

Opponents of the billionaire tax argue that it would do more harm than good.

“The more Californians learn, the more they see Proposition 40 for what it is — a harmful tax scheme that permanently damages the state’s budget and economy with zero accountability or safeguards to ensure funding actually improves care or lowers costs for patients,” said California Medical Assn. President Dr. René Bravo, the leader of one of the groups opposing the billionaire tax.

Proposition 41 would nullify the billionaire tax if, in the event that both measures are approved, it receives more “yes” votes. Proposition 41 would prohibit any new state tax from being excluded from a voter-approved cap that restricts how much tax revenue the state can spend each year.

“Californians deserve better results for their hard-earned tax dollars,” said Molly Weedn, a spokesperson for the Proposition 41 campaign.

Proposition 42 would prohibit new taxes on personal property, intellectual property, retirement accounts and other assets, and would limit situations in which a ballot measure or state lawmakers can impose or raise taxes retroactively — both of which are essential parts of Proposition 40. If both measures pass and Proposition 42 receives more “yes” votes, it would nullify the wealth tax.

The proposed billionaire tax has divided California Democrats, with Gov. Gavin Newsom opposing it while the state Democratic party supports it.

In recent polling, a majority of likely voters did not support any of the three proposals.

While 45% of likely voters supported the billionaire tax, 42% opposed it, according to a poll released Friday by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. Voters also are torn about the two ballot measures designed to nullify it.

The other measure receiving great attention, Proposition 39, which would require voters to show government-issued ID to cast ballots, faces a similar financial disparity. Opponents to the measure have raised $39.3 million compared to $15.6 million garnered by supporters.

Fifty-two percent of likely California voters oppose the voter ID proposal, while 39% support it and 9% are undecided, according to the Berkeley poll.

In the race to replace Newsom, Democratic former Biden cabinet member Xavier Becerra has raised $35.8 million, while his GOP rival, conservative strategist and television commentator Steve Hilton, has raised $22.3 million.

Becerra remains the front-runner in the governor’s race, which is not surprising since Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1. In last week’s Berkeley poll, the Democrat had the support of 58% of likely voters, while 33% backed the Republican.

Source link