Several tech executives and directors, including those at CrowdStrike, Dell, Palo Alto Networks, and Taiwan Semiconductor, made significant stock transactions—mostly sales except for the CEOs of Palo Alto Networks and Taiwan Semiconductor, who made notable purchases.
Nexstar ordered by court to pause Tegna merger after DirecTV suit
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Three deals across three key regions : Mercosur, India and Australia.
While the Commission hailed the Australia agreement as a new geostrategic win, EU farmers continue to express deep discontent stemming from the Mercosur deal.
In practice, the backlash around the agreement with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay has done little to shift the Commission’s dual approach in its negotiating line. On the one hand, the commission kept making concessions on entry-level or mid-range farm goods such as beef, while on the other hand, it pushed for market access for high value-added exports —like wine, Geographical Indications (GI) and cars— with mixed results.
“The EU has all the assets to be an agri-food power,” Luc Vernet, from the export-focused brussels think tank Farm Europe, told Euronews, adding: “We should develop a broader strategy beyond high value-added products, covering all sectors and all levels of quality, because the European model delivers exceptional quality not just in luxury products.”
Yet the opposition to the Latin America deal — which triggered a legal challenge suspending its ratification — crystallised among EU farmers over fears of unfair competition from meat imports.
The Mercosur agreement granted quotas of 99,000 tonnes of beef per year, 25,000 tonnes of pork and 188,000 tonnes of poultry. Despite conditions added to new quotas in the Australia deal, EU farmers complain of imports piling up across successive agreements.
Over eight years of talks with Canberra—the world’s second-largest beef exporter—Australia pushed hard for greater access for beef and sheep meat. Tensions intensified in 2023, when negotiations broke down after the EU rejected Australia’s demand for 40,000 tonnes of beef per year, offering no more than 30,000 tonnes instead.
The final deal agreed Tuesday allows 30,600 tonnes of beef annually into the EU. For sheep and goat meat, Brussels accepted a 25,000-tonne duty-free quota, while sugar was limited to 35,000 tonnes of raw cane for refining and rice to 8,500 tonnes a year.
However, perhaps drawing lessons from Mercosur, Brussels imposed multiple conditions on the quotas. Beef imports, which will have to be from grass-fed cattle, will be phased in over 10 years, sheep meat over 7 years, and rice over 5 years. Sugar will also be subject to certification under a private sustainability scheme.
Safeguard clauses, allowing both sides to react to market disruption, will apply for seven years – but are extended for sensitive farm goods : 15 years for beef, 12 for sheep and 10 for rice.
But a farmers’ representative told Euronews there were serious doubts about the effectiveness of the safeguard mechanisms: “Our experience in general with safeguards is that they are extremely difficult to activate because the burden of the proof is on us, farmers.”
By contrast, agriculture was far less contentious in the India negotiations, where New Delhi itself resisted opening its market due to domestic farm sensitivities, particularly in dairy. EU sensitive products were largely excluded.
But wine featured prominently on Brussels’ offensive agenda, with Indian tariffs cut from 150% to 20% for premium wines and 30% for mid-range products over seven years. Tariffs for cars will also fall from 110% to 10% but under a quota of 250,000 vehicles a year after a decade – by which point Chinese manufacturers have great chances to have strengthened their position.
In negotiations with Australia, the EU again sought greater access for its wine but encountered strong opposition from domestic producers. In the end, the deal protects more than 1,600 EU wine GIs, plus over 50 new ones from 12 member states.
On Prosecco, Australian producers will still be allowed to use the term domestically to designate a grey grape variety, provided it is linked to Australian GI, with Canberra agreeing to stop exporting such wines after 10 years.
The EU also secured protection for 165 agri-food GIs and 231 spirit drink GIs. But it failed to remove Australia’s luxury car tax, securing instead preferential treatment for EU electric vehicles. But Brussels won improved access to critical raw materials – a key EU demand, that may have lead to more concessions on meat.
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EU lawmakers have overcome a key political hurdle in the negotiations of digital euro, making the project closer to approval, according to a draft text seen by Euronews.
The Parliamentary rapporteurs involved in the legislation have found an agreement on the design of the digital euro, which will be able to function both online and offline.
The digital euro would be an electronic form of cash issued by the European Central Bank, designed to sit alongside banknotes and the payments services offered by commercial banks.
It has taken on new political weight as economic tensions between the EU and the US sharpen the debate over Europe’s reliance on American payment giants, such as Visa and Mastercard.
Under the European Commission’s proposal, digital euro users would have a wallet for both online and offline payments, with transactions designed so they are not trackable.
The situation in Parliament changed on Wednesday evening, when the centre-right politician Fernando Navarrete, who is the leading rapporteur on the file, announced the withdrawal of his position to reduce the scope of the digital euro to offline use only.
His position blocked the advancement of negotiations for months, jeopardising the whole legislative process, according to three sources familiar with the negotiations.
The political deadlock has pushed EU leaders to accelerate progress on the digital euro. At the European Council meeting on 19 March, they set a goal to have the digital euro legislation approved by the end of 2026.
With the Council, representing EU countries, having already adopted its position, the European Parliament is now the only institution left to advance the law.
“Thanks to our amendments and firm stance, we have finally broken the political deadlock on the digital euro. The distinction between online and offline has been removed, and it is now established as a single payment system,” Pasquale Tridico, the rapporteur for The Left, told Euronews.
However, lawmakers still need to agree on two key aspects: the “hold limits” and the “compensation.”
The hold limits determine the maximum amount a user can store in a digital euro wallet, while compensation sets out a model for reimbursing commercial banks that provide digital euro services.
Although negotiations are not yet complete, the text is expected to be voted on in the Parliament’s economy committee before the summer, according to a source familiar with the matter.
DOJ issues subpoenas in Paramount-Warner's $110B deal – Reuters
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Paranovus announces 1-for-12 reverse share split; shares down
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The EU approved a sweeping customs reform to handle growing trade volumes and streamline the application of its standards.
The agreement, which was reached on Thursday evening, introduces new tools to improve the collection of customs duties and increase controls on non-compliant or unsafe goods, without imposing excessive burdens for authorities and traders.
“Today’s agreement marks the greatest reform since the creation of the Customs Union in 1968”, Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a statement following the adoption of the reform. “This modern toolbox will facilitate trade and ensure the proper collection of duties, in a simplified manner, and with the required legal certainty”, the minister added.
Customs management and trade have gained renewed urgency after trade volumes have sharply increased in the last years. Some €4.6 billion low-value items under €150 were imported to the EU in 2024, representing an average of 12 million parcels per day, according to European Commission data. That is a major increase from the €2.3 billion that entered in 2023 and €1.4 billion in 2022.
In addition, uncertainties over US tariffs, combined with new EU trade deals such as those with MERCOSUR and Australia, make this reform particularly timely.
The new rules foresee the creation of an EU customs data hub, which will be an online platform to facilitate the monitoring of trade flows without disrupting their smooth operation.
Businesses importing and exporting from the EU will only need to submit customs information on that single portal.
The hub, which will be operational for e-commerce from July 2028, will be managed by a new European Custom Authority, headquartered in Lille, France.
The Authority will oversee the EU customs by coordinating national offices and supporting them in the risk management. In particular, the Authority will analyse the import and export data to flag cargos that poses the highest risk for inspection.
The reform will also introduce simplified procedures for “trust and check traders” for transparent businesses that will not be subjected to active customs interventions.
For e-commerce operators that fail to comply with EU standards, it will be applied a new system of financial penalties.
The reform foresees a new EU handling fee for small parcels entering the EU starting November 2026, with the exact amount to be decided by the European Commission. From July to November, a temporary €3 tax will apply to all parcels under €150.
Meta boosts Texas AI data center spend to $10B
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DBV Technologies GAAP EPS of -$1.05
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Ion Beam Applications SA GAAP EPS of €0.43, revenue of €620.2M
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Xos outlines 2026 guidance of $40M–$50M revenue and 350–500 deliveries while expanding hub and powertrain platforms
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Singer-songwriter FKA twigs is suing her ex-boyfriend, actor Shia LaBeouf, claiming that he is trying to “silence” her from speaking out against sexual abuse through the use of an “unlawful” nondisclosure agreement.
The complaint, filed in Los Angeles Superior Court on Wednesday, seeks a court order to prohibit LeBeouf from enforcing sections of an NDA which Tahliah Barnett — the Grammy Award-winning singer’s legal name — says violates California law.
“Shia LaBeouf has tried to control Tahliah Barnett for the better part of a decade,” the filing states.
“This action was taken in response to Mr. LaBeouf’s attempt to bully and intimidate twigs through a frivolous and unlawful secret arbitration he filed against her in December in which he sought to extract money from her,” said the singer’s attorney Mathew Rosengart, national co-chair of media & entertainment litigation at Greenberg Traurig in Century City, in a statement.
Rosengart added that twigs “refuses to be bullied anymore. She is instead standing up for herself and other survivors of sexual abuse who have improperly been silenced. This is the unusual case that is not about money but about justice and upholding and enforcing California law and policy designed to protect survivors by nullifying illegal NDAs.”
LaBeouf’s attorney Shawn Holley of Kinsella Holley Iser Kump Steinsapir denied the claims.
“When Ms. Barnett and Mr. LaBeouf both decided to resolve their differences and move on with their lives, no one forced her or ‘bullied’ her to stay silent,” Holley said in a statement.
“As a woman with agency, she decided to settle the case and accepted money to dismiss her lawsuit.”
The suit arises out of litigation that Barnett brought against LaBeouf in 2020, when she accused the actor of “physical, sexual, and mental abuse” during their relationship,” as well as “knowingly infect[ing]” Barnett with a sexually transmitted disease.” That case was settled last year.
In a response to the suit, the actor told the New York Times that “many of these allegations are not true.”
But he added, “I am not in the position to defend any of my actions. I owe these women the opportunity to air their statements publicly and accept accountability for those things I have done.”
In the statement Thursday, Holley added that the claim of sexual battery “was disputed, as were the other claims made in Ms. Barnett’s lawsuit.”
Shia LaBeouf poses for photographers upon arrival at the premiere of the film “The Phoenician Scheme” at the 78th annual Cannes Film Festival May 18, 2025.
(Lewis Joly / Invision / AP)
According to the new lawsuit, LaBeouf filed a secret arbitration complaint and “improperly sought exorbitant monies” from Barnett last December, claiming she had breached their agreement by violating its nondisclosure provisions after she gave an interview to the Hollywood Reporter in October.
In the interview, Barnett was asked if she felt safe and answered that as a woman of color in the entertainment industry, she “wouldn’t feel safe” and discussed her involvement with organizations that support survivors, saying, “I think it’s less about me at this point and more about looking forward. Just, you know, moving on with my life.”
The agreement Barnett reached with LaBeouf “contained a deficient and unlawful NDA that is unenforceable,” under California’s Stand Together Against Non-Disclosure Act, according to the complaint. The law forbids NDAs from being used to silence victims of sexual misconduct.
“As the California Legislature has made clear, survivors should have the right to tell their stories without fear or coercion, and California law does not and must not allow abusers and bullies to silence them through secret agreements containing unconscionable, unlawful gag orders,” the complaint states.
The lawsuit further alleges that while LaBeouf has sought to prohibit Barnett from talking about her abuse, he has “repeatedly brought up his relationship with Ms. Barnett—on his own and without being directly asked about her—materially breaching the very confidentiality provisions that he had just contended were fully enforceable against Ms. Barnett.”
While the actor agreed to drop the arbitration in February, he has “refused to acknowledge, however, that the NDA provisions are illegal and unenforceable,” the filing states.
The latest round in LaBeouf’s legal battle with Barnett comes just weeks after a New Orleans judge ordered the actor to begin substance abuse treatment and undergo weekly drug testing after he was arrested on suspicion of assaulting two men in the city’s French Quarter. LaBeouf was also required to post $100,000 bond as part of the conditions of his release. He was charged with two counts of simple battery, the Associated Press reported.
Here are the major earnings before the open Friday
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North America’s small- and mid-cap industrial sector is entering a new phase of recalibration, as investors weigh resilient demand against uneven near-term upside, according to a March 26 report from J.P. Morgan.
In a sweeping review of 26 companies across
Nucor raised to Buy at UBS after 'excessive correction'
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Yields on government debt across European countries and the United States have been rising since the start of the Iran war.
Investors are demanding higher yields as confidence in the global economy has cratered due to the severe negative impact of the conflict on energy markets, supply chains and Middle Eastern infrastructure.
The 2-year notes, sensitive to near-term rate expectations, have risen faster than their 10-year counterparts in a classic bear-flattening move, while longer-dated yields reflect worries over the economic drag caused by more expensive energy.
Speaking to Euronews, BCA Research’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Robert Timper, explained that “the aggressive bear flattening of yield curves reflects a hawkish monetary policy repricing in response to inflation fears stemming from the Iran war”.
“The front-end [2-year yields] is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy and has therefore risen more than the long-end [10-year yields] in response to investors’ anticipation of more hawkish central bank policy,” Timper added.
Historically, this specific curve behaviour often precedes an inverted yield curve, which is a well-recognised indicator of a potential economic recession.
The repricing has been most pronounced in Europe, with the UK bond market feeling the biggest pressure.
Since the start of the conflict, the 10-year UK gilt yield has risen from 4.2% to a high of over 5% while the 2-year note yield jumped from 3.5% to a peak of 4.6%.
Timper explained to Euronews that past inflation experience has proved decisive, stating that “rate hikes in the UK are more likely than elsewhere because inflation has been more elevated than elsewhere, and the risk of inflation expectations unanchoring is therefore higher.”
On Wednesday, AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould highlighted the UK-specific implications in a detailed press release, noting that the 10-year gilt yield is hovering near 5% for only the third time since 2008 while the 2-year gilt yield comfortably exceeds the Bank of England base rate.
Mould also explained that the gap between the 10-year gilt yield and the FTSE 100 dividend yield has widened to more than one-and-a-half percentage points, making UK equities relatively less attractive.
Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields experienced similar surges.
Germany’s 10-year bund yield increased from 2.65% to around 3%, nearing 15-year highs, while the 2-year note yield climbed from roughly 2% to 2.65%.
In France, the 10-year OAT yield jumped from 3.2% to above 3.7%, approaching 17-year peaks, while the 2-year note yield has risen from 2.1% to over 2.8%.
As for Italy, the 10-year BTP yield was at around 3.3% before the Iran war and has now surpassed 3.9%, approaching two-year highs, while the 2-year note yield has increased from roughly 2.15% to 3%.
In every single one of these bond markets, the yield on the 2-year notes has risen faster than their 10-year counterparts.
The 30 and 20-year bond yields are also all trading higher which denotes deteriorating confidence in the long-term growth prospect of the respective European economies.
Across the Atlantic, US Treasuries have followed a similar trajectory, though the sell-off has been less severe than in the UK for example.
The 10-year note yield has risen from around 3.9% to a peak of 4.4%, reached on Monday, and is currently trading at 4.37%.
Meanwhile, the 2-year note yield increased from 3.35% to a high of over 4%, and it is hovering 3.9% at the time of writing.
The yields on both notes have hit an 8-month high.
Timper’s analysis places US bond performance close to that of the euro area, reflecting broadly comparable inflation histories and policy outlooks. There is scant evidence of investors fleeing European bonds for US Treasuries as a safe-haven trade.
Speaking to Euronews, Timper explained that such shifting flows would be more visible in currency markets as the US dollar benefits from being the predominant denominator for energy exports.
For now the message from bond markets on either side of the Atlantic is consistent, the Middle East conflict has rewritten the near-term outlook for inflation, monetary policy and borrowing costs.
United Natural Foods a unique way "to play the healthy living trend"—Wells Fargo
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EU lawmakers on Thursday approved the EU-US trade deal struck in Turnberry, Scotland, in 2025, while attaching a set of conditions to the agreement.
A broad majority of political groups backed the deal, which cuts EU tariffs on most US industrial goods to zero, with 417 votes in favour, 154 against, and 71 abstentions.
The European Commission and Washington had pushed for the deal’s implementation, but MEPs delayed backing it until last week amid tensions over Greenland and fresh US trade investigations that raised fears Washington could undermine the deal with new tariffs.
Initially criticized by MEPs as unbalanced and defended by the Commission as the best possible outcome, the deal sets US tariffs on EU goods at 15%, while the EU eliminates duties on most US industrial products.
MEPs introduced safeguards to rebalance the pact in the event of future threats from US President Donald Trump or violations by the United States.
“Of course, that’s imbalanced, but if we could improve it, maybe we can live with it,” Socialist German MEP Bernd Lange said ahead of the vote.
The European Parliament will now work with EU member states to find a common position and enable the tariff cuts, with the attached safeguards expected to be the main point of contention.
These include a “sunset clause” under which the deal expires in March 2028 unless both sides agree to extend it. It also includes a “sunrise clause” which would make tariff preferences conditional to the US respecting its Turnberry commitments.
Lawmakers moved to shield the deal from fresh US tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down 2025 US tariffs in February, prompting the White House to impose new duties on EU goods and launch an investigation into alleged unfair trade practices that could lead to further tariffs.
MEPs also linked the tariff cuts on steel and aluminium to equivalent actions by the US.
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Lille will host the European Custom Authority, a new decentralised agency tasked with supporting and coordinating national customs administrations across the bloc.
The decision was made on Wednesday in Brussels, after EU lawmakers from the European Parliament and the Council of the EU voted on the matter in three rounds.
“France is one of Europe’s leading customs nations, [considering] one in three parcels entering the EU passes through French territory,” Dutch MEP Dirk Gotink, rapporteur on the customs reform, said in a press statement.
“Lille’s strategic location at the crossroads of Europe makes it the natural hub for this authority,” the EU lawmaker continued.
Italy, with Rome as its candidate, was the runner-up in the voting rounds.
Other contenders included Belgium with Liège, Croatia with Zagreb, the Netherlands with The Hague, Poland with Warsaw, Portugal with Porto, Romania with Bucharest, and Spain with Málaga.
Customs management and trade have taken on renewed urgency after former US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs shortly after taking office.
Amid growing global trade uncertainty, the EU has stepped up engagement with international partners. This week, it signed a new agreement with Australia, while the EU–Mercosur deal is set to apply provisionally from 1 April.
The establishment of the new authority is part of the overall reform of the EU customs framework, with key negotiations expected to take place on Thursday.
The reform also aims to tackle the rising pressure from increased trade flows, fragmented national systems and the rapid rise of e-commerce.
The agency is expected to be set up in 2026 and could become operational in 2028 according to a draft schedule which is still be subject to significant changes.
The Major League Baseball Players Assn. is arguably the strongest union in the United States whose members include some of the most conservative athletes in professional sports. The owners of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams, who made their wealth through the workings of free enterprise capitalism, want to limit what players can be paid. This apparent political and philosophical irony will most likely lead to a shutdown of baseball at the end of this season.
Wednesday is opening day for the 162-game major league season. The 2025 season ended Nov. 1 with an 11-inning Dodgers victory over the Toronto Blue Jays in what was one of the most mesmerizing World Series ever. Last season, the Dodgers attracted more than 4 million fans for the first time. The Dodgers weren’t alone. More than 71 million fans attended major league games — the third straight season of growth. Over the last decade, league revenue has increased 33%.
And yet, despite all this good news about the health of baseball’s finances, team owners have threatened to lock the players out — essentially an ownership strike — at the end of this season over terms of a new collective bargaining agreement soon to be negotiated with the players union.
Major League Baseball, unlike the NFL, the NBA and the NHL, does not have a hard salary cap that limits what teams can spend on players. This is the key issue for the 30 team owners and Commissioner Rob Manfred, who argues that the system is “broken.” Small-market teams can’t effectively compete, Manfred insists, with economic behemoths like the Dodgers and Yankees. But over the past 10 seasons, 14 teams have made it to the World Series, so the league is not dominated by only a few big spenders.
Major leaguers and fans have weathered five player strikes and four owner lockouts since 1972. The 1994-95 strike lasted 232 days, canceling more than 900 games, including the World Series. Unlike in the NFL, where top players like San Francisco 49ers quarterback Joe Montana crossed a picket line during the 1987 NFL Players Assn. strike, unionized baseball players have remained united. So far, no star players have been strikebreakers in baseball. Both Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers — the 2025 Cy Young Award winners for their respective leagues — also serve in players union leadership roles.
A recent report analyzing major league ballplayers’ political affiliation found that among those who live in states that allow public access to voter registration records, nearly 54% of the players were Republicans compared with 8% Democrats. Why does a rightward-leaning membership retain such strong union loyalties?
For Miami Marlins pitcher Pete Fairbanks, who is also a member of the players union leadership, it comes down to recognizing that they stand on the shoulders of players who challenged the baseball establishment.
“If you look at the history of the union, we’ve had a foundation set for us,” Fairbanks said. “They fought for players’ rights and for the general betterment of the whole and it’s the job of the veteran players to pass that history on to the younger players.”
Marvin Miller, a former Steelworkers Union leader, revolutionized the players’ union and baseball when he led the association from 1966 to 1982. He told the New York Times in 1999 that he was “irked” that many players did not know that it was the union that made their enormous salaries and benefits, arbitration and free agency possible. “When you don’t know your history, you tend to relive it,” Miller said.
Miller, who died in 2012, was a labor history buff who realized that highly skilled workers often developed elaborate ethical codes that promoted solidarity with other employees.
Bruce Meyer, the current executive director of the players association, puts the union’s fractious history with the owners at the center of his communications with players. He spent weeks talking with union members during spring training in Florida and Arizona, emphasizing the importance of unity in the ranks. “The bottom line is that our players have always been of the view that they are fighting not just for themselves but for their teammates and for the players that come after them,” Meyer said.
Manfred’s strategy as commissioner of Major League Baseball has been to talk directly with the players himself, especially the lower-earning younger players who he claims are being shortchanged. He argues that “10% of our players make 72% of the money,” numbers that Meyer disputes.
The commissioner is essentially telling players that their union has engaged in malpractice, losing touch with its own members while the economics of baseball changed around them. Meyer regards Manfred’s attempt to divide players as “standard management-labor tactics.”
Top agent Scott Boras said that, unlike in the NFL, baseball’s open salary system works for players because “your talent allows you to earn what you can earn without taking money from anybody else’s pocket.”
Paradoxically, the union has embraced the principles of Adam Smith: Let the free market work. No one forced the Dodgers to pay Shohei Ohtani $700 million. Good for Ohtani, great for Dodger fans. And this year, the Japanese clothing retailer Uniqlo will be a field sponsor at Dodger Stadium. The owners, who embrace team revenue sharing and luxury taxes and demand restrictions on salary competition, sound like socialists.
When labor-management disputes interrupt baseball, many fans undoubtedly feel like they are victims of a squabble between “millionaires and billionaires.” Ryan Long, a 26-year-old minor league pitcher in the Baltimore Orioles system and a union leader, thinks the players association should try to understand how regular working people feel about a potential lockout. “Whether it’s people selling hot dogs at stadiums or cleaning rooms at local hotels, the union should help in whatever way it can for other workers who may be hurt if baseball shuts down,” he said.
In late February at the Yankees spring training field in Tampa, I spoke with season ticket holder Richard Barnitt, who wore a shirt designed like a baseball, looking like he could be scuffed up and pitched. “There has to be some kind of cap because the Dodgers and the New York Mets had unlimited money,” he said. Another fan, Carlos Rodriquez, an airplane mechanic living in Tampa, disagreed. “I don’t think a salary cap would be fair to the players,” he said. “The players association does magical work for those guys.”
If locked out, the players are going to want support from fans, to whom a salary cap might sound reasonable. Owners will do what owners do: maximize profits and franchise values. The players union should find ways to show the fans they are not forgotten.
During a previous owners lockout, the association created a million-dollar fund to help pay the bills of stadium concession workers who were thrown out of work. They can do the same again, letting fans know that they understand that most Americans struggle paycheck to paycheck. And maybe Ohtani can chip in a couple hundred bucks — like former Dodger Mike Piazza did decades ago — for each home run.
Kelly Candaele produced the documentary “A League of Their Own,” about his mother’s years playing in the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League.
Analysts expect continued slow growth this year, with inflation moderating. But the region’s biggest economies present a mixed outlook.
The US operation to capture and oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power in January put Latin America back in the spotlight. But the surprise intervention has not yet translated into larger political or economic shifts in the region.
Instead, a familiar, business-as-usual outlook appears to be trending: modest growth; economies linked to external demands for commodities; and persistent structural vulnerabilities tied to public debt, infrastructure, and diminishing but persistent legal and political risk. The silver linings: stabilizing macro indicators and a broad trend toward moderating inflationary pressure. The key question is: Which way will the region head?
Sustainable growth and development remain elusive. Upcoming electoral contests in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru add to the backdrop of geopolitical realignment, along with US tariffs and the evolving roles of the US, China, and Europe in the region. Cautious optimism related to economic indicators and innovation remains overshadowed by structural fragility.
The baseline expectation is continuity rather than acceleration, with growth projections by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank converging toward a 2.2%-2.3% average, respectively—positive, but not transformative.
Patricia Krause, chief Latin America economist at Coface, a French trade-credit insurance company, expects regional GDP to grow at 2.3% this year. The figure matches forecasts by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and is slightly more optimistic than those announced by Goldman Sachs (1.9%) and Fitch Solutions’ BMI (1.7%).
“We see a more challenging economic environment for the region,” says Ash Khayami, senior country-risk analys for Latin America Country Risk at BMI, “although growth is broadly in line with prepandemic run rates, going from 2.1% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026, mostly driven by weaker growth in Brazil and Mexico.”
Political volatility remains a central theme in Latin America, and BMI expects a shift toward more conservative or right-of-center governments across the region. “We see a broad turn to right-wing governments in most elections we cover,” says Khayami. “More-conservative governments with stronger fiscal discipline should boost investor sentiment domestically.”
According to a recent study by the Eurasia Group political-risk consultancy, while political volatility has long been considered Latin America’s defining risk, the character of that volatility is now increasingly episodic instead of ideologically linked. For financial markets, this is good, since episodic risk can be priced more easily than structural regime changes.
Perhaps the most underappreciated regional trend—and success story—is inflation normalization as major Latin economies are returning to or remaining within target ranges.
Regional commonalities are only part of the story. The economic outlook for major Latin American economies is varied.
“Argentina is entering an investment-driven cycle supported by commodity exports and lower taxes, which underpins our positive outlook,” says Khayami. “The country risk is down 500 base points, the lowest since 2018. Still, the growth rate is slowing down from 4.3% to a consensus rate of approximately 3.2% this year.”
The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic’s hard-currency accumulation and narrowing country-risk spreads are major positives, he adds: “The central bank accumulating over $1 billion in January is a strong signal from an external-accounts perspective.”
Brazil’s growth should slow slightly this year compared to last, says Krause, mainly due to still-elevated interest rates. The market expects the central bank’s Selic benchmark interest rate to begin declining: It’s still projected to end the year at 12.25%, down from its current 15%. Household consumption is expected to support growth, helped by labor market resilience, lower inflation, and tax relief measures. “Trade tensions with the US had some impact on Brazilian exports after tariff measures,” Krause observes, “but the effect was mitigated by exemptions and diversification toward other export markets, including Argentina, Canada, and India.”
The country remains a slow-growth anchor economy, according to Khayami’s analysis, saddled by fiscal rigidity and a high tax burden. But a contrary trend may be taking hold, where public spending gradually shrinks as a share of GDP through 2028.
Colombia is currently the oddball among major Latin economies, according to BMI, with fiscal concerns and inflation being particular issues.
“As we move toward more conservative presidents, we expect stronger fiscal discipline and more probusiness policy stances to boost investor sentiment,” says Khayami. “Political risk—including relations with the US and also election dynamics—is a major macro driver.”
Colombia’s inflation risk is currently driven by domestic policy decisions rather than external factors, Krause argues. “Inflation was above the 3% target at 5.1% in 2025,” she observes. “The expectations worsened following a sharp minimum wage increase of 23% in December. As a result, [the inflation forecast] is revised upwards to 6.4% this year, and the country moved in the opposite direction of its regional peers by raising interest rates.”
Mexico’s economy barely grew in 2025—estimated at between 0.2% and 0.6%—but is expected to expand about 1.5% this year. That affects perception across the region, Khayami observes.
“Mexico, because of its relationship with the US, is a pillar of regional foreign direct investment [FDI],” he says, “and there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding that relationship right now. FDI flows into Latin America last year were approximately $160 billion. Mexico captured 25% of that. If Mexico is not doing well, the regional outlook weakens.”
Khayami describes the local business environment as “uncertain due to overlapping risk factors, including trade-framework uncertainty, potential security escalation tied to cartel violence, and possible US intervention scenarios.”
Peru’s outlook reflects modest macro stability alongside persistent structural weaknesses, according to independent strategic consultant Andrés Castillo. GDP is expected to grow roughly 2.8% in 2026 with inflation near 2% according to a report by BCP banking group, in line with the central bank of Peru’s targets. Fiscal metrics remain comparatively strong, with the deficit projected near 1.8% of GDP and public debt around 36%, according to Trading Economics, low by regional standards.
But macro stability masks deeper structural risks, Castillo cautions. “Peru’s economy is supported by mining, agriculture, and fishing; but coca production and now illegal mining have also become significant economic forces,” he says. “Mining alone accounts for about 8.5% of GDP and nearly 64% of exports, underscoring commodity dependence.”
Venezuela remains Latin America’s elephant in the room.
Maduro’s ouster sparked hopes of regime change and a new economic lifeline for Venezuelans. Most analysts at the time expected Washington to immediately initiate a transition phase, opening the door to major oil and energy investments. But so far, only a trickle of those expectations are being realized. Oil production is expected to increase in the short term only if sanctions ease and investment resumes. Khayami says that the path to a more robust energy sector will be long.
Jorge Jraissati, a Venezuelan expatriate and president of Economy Inclusion Group, points to two possible scenarios for the country. In the bad-case scenario, reforms exist on paper but political uncertainty persists. In this case, oil recovers modestly but non-oil investment remains minimal, locking the economy into a suboptimal equilibrium, which can deteriorate even more after the next presidential cycle in the US.
“In the ‘good’ scenario,” Jraissati says, “US policy sustains pressure for measurable institutional democratization, market opening, and concrete security guarantees that reduce risk pricing. If these conditions are met, foreign capital—especially in energy and infrastructure—will begin to commit rather than speculate.”