Germany

Talks will focus on the €1 billion daily deficit and rare earth export restrictions.

European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has arrived in Beijing for talks on the European Union’s (EU) growing trade deficit with China.

Sefcovic will meet Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on Thursday and Friday after months of discussions over the EU’s trade deficit of more than €1bn ($1.12bn) daily, as well as Chinese curbs on exports of rare earths and other critical minerals.

Meanwhile, Chinese companies are increasingly challenging Europe’s top car brands. China rejected the EU request for voluntary curbs on Chinese hybrid car exports as the two sides enter negotiations, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. The European Commission now hopes to get Beijing to accept a unilateral EU measure to cap hybrid imports instead, the outlet said, citing two diplomats briefed on the plan.

The two days of discussions come just as a majority of EU lawmakers called for a more assertive trade policy towards Beijing in a non-binding resolution on Wednesday. China vowed a “resolute response” to safeguard its industries if the European Union goes ahead with restrictions against Chinese companies or products, according to its commerce ministry.

Germany and France propose rapid EU measure

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, leaders of the bloc’s two biggest powers, on Tuesday urged the EU to prepare a “credible instrument” that could be quickly activated to strike back against countries that harm the bloc economically.

The new measure would not target any specific country. German officials said the EU needed a tool as powerful as the Section 301 tariffs imposed by the United States or China’s restrictions on critical-mineral exports.

The proposed weapon – to be discussed at an EU leaders’ summit next week – would give the European Commission the power to respond to a trade aggression within days.

China responded to the letter by urging Paris and Berlin to steer clear of “protectionist” measures.

“We hope that France and Germany, as major economies in the world, will uphold openness, cooperation and free trade,” the commerce ministry said in a statement.

“They should avoid going down the wrong path in the wrong way, only to ultimately suffer the consequences themselves.”

G20 finance leaders, except China’s, agreed in September to act against “non-market” distortions that exacerbate imbalances. Beijing says that hyping up issues such as economic imbalances and overcapacity is a form of protectionism designed to exert pressure on and restrict China.

Ongoing trade talks

EU and Chinese officials have been discussing trade imbalances since June. Sefcovic said he wanted “tangible results by October” as well as some form of commitment that can be put to EU leaders meeting in Brussels.

Trade relations with China top the summit’s agenda next week, as ballooning debt has prompted auditors to warn about the next seven-year EU budget and has spurred protests in France.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament last month that the trade imbalance had reached a tipping point and that Europe would use every tool at its disposal to rebalance the relationship.

Far-right and far-left parties gain ground in local elections as Merz’s approval rating sinks.

Chancellor ⁠Friedrich Merz has hit out at what he called political “extremism” in Germany after recent stinging defeats in local elections to far-right and far-left parties.

“This is a task for ⁠our society as ⁠a whole, and it is ⁠one I intend ⁠to play ⁠my part in,” he said on Wednesday at an ‌event in Berlin.

Merz said “extremism” was forcefully making its way into the country’s parliaments, a day after a member of the far-right Alternative for ‌Germany (AfD) was elected president of the state parliament in Saxony-Anhalt and the Left Party won out in Berlin’s state election last month.

“Anyone who casts their vote for ⁠the AfD is ⁠playing the extremists’ game and undermining credibility,” ⁠Merz said. “In ⁠any case, this is incompatible with the values of ‌my party, the CDU [Christian Democratic Union of Germany].”

Despite winning the vote in the September 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD fell three seats short of the absolute majority it had had sought. AfD lawmaker Tobias Rausch won the presidency of the parliament in the eastern German state Tuesday, backed by the left-populists in a secret ballot.

Founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic movement, the AfD won over voters with an increasingly hardline opposition to immigration after about a million people fled to Germany in 2015, many of them from war-torn Syria.

The party has since become a dominant political force in much of eastern Germany, especially among voters disillusioned with mainstream parties, though most traditional parties have pledged not to enter coalitions with the AfD.

Berlin election

Merz’s comments followed the far-left Left Party’s victory in the Berlin state election on September 20, in another defeat for the chancellor’s ruling Christian Democrats.

Lead ‌candidate Elif Eralp campaigned on the soaring cost of housing in the German capital and immediately promised to follow through with a pledge to nationalise private housing associations that account for a large share of the city’s housing stock.

The result, which roughly doubled the party’s previous score, could see her become the first mayor of Berlin from the Left Party, which grew out of the former East German communist party following the reunification of the country 36 years ago.

Eralp, the 45-year-old daughter of left-wing Turkish parents who fled a coup in 1980, said the increasingly difficult rental situation was the biggest social problem in the capital.

She promised to proceed with nationalising the housing associations she said drove property speculation, in accordance with a referendum from 2021 in which 58 percent of voters backed a proposal to promulgate the move.

While the AfD has attracted most attention, the ⁠Left Party has also benefitted from a general turn against the mainstream centre-left and centre-right parties.

Meanwhile, Merz has received a record low approval rating. Earlier this month, a survey by Germany’s public broadcaster ARD found that only one in 10 respondents were satisfied or very satisfied with his performance, the lowest figure for any chancellor since the survey began in 1997.

Another major election test will come in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, where voters are set to elect a new parliament in April.

August Hanning’s former chief of staff was also arrested on suspicion of ‘aiding and abetting attempted treason’.

Germany’s former foreign spy chief has been arrested on suspicion of espionage and treason, prosecutors have said.

August Hanning, 80, is under investigation for attempted treason and acting as an agent for a foreign intelligence service, the Office of the Federal Public Prosecutor General confirmed on Tuesday.

Hanning was president of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service between 1998 and 2005.

He was arrested in Bad Toelz-Wolfratshausen in southern Germany. His former chief of staff, partially identified as Manfred D, was arrested in Steinfurt in western Germany on suspicion of “aiding and abetting attempted treason and treasonous espionage”.

The prosecutor’s office said, “On one occasion, Hanning used classified intelligence provided by Manfred D to draft an analysis for an officer of a foreign intelligence service.”

Prosecutors said Manfred D also served as the chief of staff for Hanning’s successors between 2012 and 2026, and used his role to gain access to confidential information which he then passed on to Hanning “in exchange for remuneration”. Hanning then used the information in his private consulting work, prosecutors added.

“The current findings suggest that, over the years, Manfred D provided Hanning with approximately 2,000 documents, many of which contained classified information to be used exclusively by the federal intelligence service for internal purposes, particularly for executive intelligence briefings,” the statement said.

The statement did not reveal who the two men were suspected of spying for or which country the foreign agent worked for, adding that “it has yet to be determined if the material reached the intended recipient”.

German MP Marc Henrichmann told the AFP news agency that Germany “will not tolerate the betrayal of secrets”.

Henrichmann, who chairs the German parliament’s intelligence oversight committee, said, “Whoever allies themselves with the enemies of our liberal democracy will be found out.”

The premises of Manfred D and Hanning were being searched in several locations, including in the capital, Berlin.

Hannah Britt answered the millennial call to see 90s heartthrobs the Backstreet Boys at their 10-night residency in Dusseldorf, and found it to be the very best tonic ☆☆☆☆☆

The new trend among some of the world’s biggest artists is turning concert-going into a musical pilgrimage. Indeed, from Celine Dion’s 26 nights in Paris, to Harry Styles‘ 12 at London’s Wembley Stadium, for many fans a gig ticket now comes with a city break.

Music residencies, which used to be the preserve of Las Vegas mega hotels, have hit the mainstream, with more and more acts opting to stay put and, instead of touring around from place to place, have their fans come directly to them. Talking about his run of Together, Together shows, Harry Styles explained that playing in one place instead of embarking on a traditional world tour would improve the quality of the performance and better support his personal wellbeing.

And the idea is catching. After a run of sold out shows at The Sphere in Las Vegas, everyone’s favourite 90s heartthrobs the Backstreet Boys announced 10 nights at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf, a location chosen as it was the first place the I Want It That Way band cracked outside of America.

A homecoming, they told fans. Wear white. The millennial in me couldn’t resist. I used to kiss a picture of Nick Carter before retiring to my bunk bed each night aged eight. This was my chance to see him in the flesh. What’s more, compared to Vegas, Dusseldorf was practically next door. I simply had to go. And I’m so pleased I did.

A residency turns a pop concert into a cultural phenomenon. I’ll admit, other than knowing Dusseldorf was in Germany, I didn’t know anything about it. But I diligently booked my flight, enlisting my best friend Emily to join the fun.

I saw my first Backstreet Boys T-shirt on the plane. And a quick glance around showed me it was not the only one. Millennial white and baby blue adorned many of the passengers before they’d even left Manchester airport, and their number would only grow as we landed.

Once in the passport control queue in Dusseldorf, the singing began. And by the time Emily and I reached the city centre, we had found full blown boyband mania. Checking into our hotel, the chic and homely 25hours Hotel Das Tour which I’d found on Tripadvisor, and which was situated to the north of the city centre, life size cardboard cutouts of Nick, Kevin, Brian, AJ and Howie greeted us, along with a cocktail list inspired by the band, and a playlist to match.

In the foyer, an excited throng of diamanté-bedazzled women in their 30s buzzed excitedly. With partners and kids at home, a deliciously childlike giddiness replaced the adulthood we’d left behind. I found myself wishing I’d brought blue eyeshadow and butterfly clips.

Venturing out in search of sustenance, Düsseldorf’s bustling centre delivered mania still. A huge hopeful crowd was gathered outside of the band’s hotel, Breidenbacher. In the old town, the city’s bars blasted out the band’s biggest hits, from Larger Than Life to Incomplete.

White and blue balloons decorated the banks of the Rhine, and in the Marktplatz square a Backstreet Boys experience and merch shop drew huge queues. If you’d come to Dusseldorf for a quiet city break you’d have been most confused. But for those of us there for the show, it all added to the fun.

I found the mania endearing. It was exciting, intoxicating. It reminded me of Manchester before Oasis’ comeback shows in the city last year, only with less guitars and more earnest key changes. Even Emily, who arrived knowing one Backstreet Boys song in total, soon declared her desire for a tour T-shirt.

With some time to kill before the main event, we explored the Dusseldorf. Lunch was mussels and chips at the chic Robert restaurant on the riverbank, and views came courtesy of a boat trip down the Rhine, booked with ease on Get Your Guide.

We then partook in what appeared to be the city’s main occupation – drinking beer. Dusseldorf’s Altstadt (Old Town) is famously known as the “longest bar in the world” (längste Theke der Welt) because it packs around 260 to 300 bars, pubs, clubs, and traditional breweries into a compact area of just half a square km. It was brilliant fun, set of course to an ever-present soundtrack of our favourite five piece.

Producing bobbles, we put our hair in 90s bunches. Back home we’d have drawn stares. In Dusseldorf when the population was at a rough estimate 96% Backstreet Boys fans, we looked like we belonged. As we walked back to 25hr we smiled as we heard screaming coming from the Breidenbacher. The Boys had emerged from the hotel to say hello.

That evening, before heading to the arena we went to The Paris Bar on the 17th floor of 25hr. I had a Brian, Emily a Nick. Then we made our way to the show. A sea of denim, white combat trousers and glitter guided us there.

As the Backstreet Boys took the stage, the mania came to a head, but so did the joy. So began a setlist stuffed with nostalgia, dance routines, and all their biggest hits. It was like an injection of pure serotonin. The ticket may have come with a city break attached, but it turned out to be the very best therapy. And as everyone’s favourite key change came in the closing bars of Drowning, you could feel 60,000 millennials healing their inner child all at once.

*For tickets, see here; for more information about 25hr Hotel Das Tour, see here; for more information about Get Your Guide, see here; and for all things Tripadvisor, see here

Novak Djokovic to face Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals in Beijing after the Russian defeats Francisco Cerundolo.

Novak Djokovic has brushed aside ongoing injury-related struggles and produced a trademark comeback to defeat top seed Alexander Zverev 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 for a place in the China Open semifinals, extending his unbeaten record in the tournament.

Playing the ATP 500 event in Beijing for the first time since 2015, the six-time champion was pushed to the limit by reigning French Open and US Open champion Zverev, who delivered 19 aces in the match on Sunday.

Meeting for the first time in nearly 16 months, Djokovic struggled to contain the German’s power in the early stages as the 29-year-old Zverev claimed the opening set, but the Serb gradually worked his way into the match and refused to let his opponent pull away.

“I had a terrible start – two double faults at the beginning. It was quite cold, and honestly, I didn’t feel warmed up, but my fault,” Djokovic said.

“I gave him an early break, and then it was hard to come back in the first set.”

The contest was briefly interrupted by a moment of controversy when Zverev argued that the electronic advertising signage had gone dark during a rally and requested a video review after losing the point.

Replays showed a section of the signage had switched off although not as Zverev was missing the forehand. The chair umpire ordered the point to be replayed, prompting a frustrated exchange from Djokovic.

‘Held my nerves’

The turning point came late in the second set when Djokovic broke at 5-4 to level the match, shifting the momentum in his favour after a tightly contested battle.

With little separating the pair in the third, the Serbian struck again at 5-4 on the Zverev serve, securing the decisive break to seal the victory in two hours and 35 minutes.

“I was trying to be aggressive and come to the net and change up the pace, not giving the same pattern,” Djokovic said.

“I am just glad that I held my nerves, played good shots at important moments, 5-4 in the second and third.”

The pair had not met since Roland Garros in 2025, where Djokovic won in four sets, and Sunday’s encounter again highlighted the Serb’s ability to deliver under pressure despite a season disrupted by physical issues.

With the victory, Djokovic moved a step closer to a seventh China Open title and an elusive first trophy of the year while denying Zverev another opportunity to strengthen his bid for the world number one ranking.

Djokovic will face Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals after the Russian defeated Francisco Cerundolo 7-6(4), 6-3 earlier.

Rybakina withdraws from Wuhan after China Open exit

World number one Elena Rybakina withdrew from this month’s Wuhan Open due to a foot injury, tournament organisers said on Sunday, a day after the Kazakh suffered a shock defeat in her opening match at the China Open.

Rybakina, who lost to world number 118 Alina Charaeva in Beijing, said she would take time away from competition to recover.

“I’m very sorry to the fans who were looking forward to seeing me play,” Rybakina said in a story posted on the tournament’s Instagram account.

“I’ll take some time to rest and recover. Thank you for your understanding and continued support.”

The 27-year-old has been managing a lingering lower leg and foot problem that also forced her to retire from her Cincinnati quarterfinal against Iga Swiatek in August.

Despite the setback, Rybakina recovered in time for the US Open, where she claimed her third Grand Slam title, rose to world number one and became the first player to qualify for the season-ending WTA Finals.

Rybakina is next expected to compete this month in the Ningbo Open in China, where she will try to defend her title.

The Wuhan Open is scheduled to take place from October 12 to 18.

German chancellor visits Kyiv amid air raid sirens, pledging strong support as Russian strikes disrupt the capital.

Russia has struck a key bridge in Kyiv just as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in the Ukrainian capital to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The unannounced visit, marked by the sound of air sirens and explosions, came on Sunday to underscore Germany’s support for the nation at a time when Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities are increasing.

In a written statement, Merz said he “travelled to Kyiv today because Ukraine needs all our support in the coming weeks”.

“If Russia is not stopped, its war machine will sooner or later turn against us,” he said.

Merz and Zelenskyy met at the National Academy of Sciences, which was struck by a Russian drone on September 28.

Zelenskyy told Merz that Kyiv’s citizens are going through “terrible nights and days” due to the ongoing Russian attacks.

Merz was accompanied by his economy minister, as well as executives from several large German companies, such as Siemens Energy and Diehl Defence.

Ukraine and Germany are also expected to finalise a deal to produce drones and other weapons together that can travel more than 600 miles (965.6km) in an effort to strike deeper into Russia.

Germany has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters. In April, the two countries signed a military pact worth more than $4bn. On Sunday, a $1.1bn military aid package is set to be announced, alongside $394m to repair damage to Ukraine’s energy sector.

Merz’s visit comes a day after Russia warned foreign diplomats and nationals to leave the capital to avoid getting hurt.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence promised to intensify strikes on Ukraine after Zelenskyy said in an interview with the Reuters news agency that it is doubling down on targeting Russian oil refineries after several civilians were killed and wounded over the weekend.

The strike that hit the Northern Bridge over the Dnipro River on Sunday also damaged a road and the supply of hot water in the area, according to a social media statement from Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. It is the second bridge in the capital to be hit this weekend.

Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine is in its fifth year. Both sides have increased the number of drone and missile attacks on infrastructure, logistics and military sites in recent months.

Germany is moving ahead with plans to give its unusually large F125 frigates a medium-range air-defense capability, helping address one of the most conspicuous weaknesses of a four-ship class that has long attracted attention for having relatively little combat power for its size.

Diehl Defense and Germany’s Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) have signed a contract to adapt and develop the IRIS-T SLM surface-to-air missile system for operational use aboard the German Navy’s F125 frigates. Under the agreement, Diehl will build prototypes and conduct comprehensive test firings intended to validate the system’s integration and performance within the existing F125 architecture. Each frigate will be fitted with two new launchers, each capable of holding 16 missiles, for a total of 32.

“The aim is to make the system mission-capable on the German Navy’s F125 frigates,” Diehl said in today’s announcement. The company described the prototype construction and test-firing phase as necessary to ensure “the seamless integration and maximum performance” of IRIS-T SLM within the frigate’s existing architecture.

The program has moved notably quickly, reflecting the urgency of the requirement.

Germany began examining the feasibility of integrating IRIS-T SLM with the F125 in 2024, with BAAINBw and Diehl studying the technical risks and requirements of adapting the normally land-based system for shipboard use. That effort led to the development of a navalized demonstrator in 2025. In October of that year, the F125 frigate Baden-Württemberg took part in a German Navy Maritime Firing Exercise off Andøya, Norway, carrying an experimental anti-air warfare module based on IRIS-T SLM. Diehl says the module went from concept to firing in less than 10 months and met all established test and evaluation objectives.

The Bundeswehr subsequently reported that Baden-Württemberg fired three live IRIS-T SLM missiles during the exercise. The ship’s radar supplied target data to the missile system, demonstrating the basic integration between the F125’s sensors and the navalized air defense architecture.

The exercise established that the concept could work at sea; the contract signed now is intended to turn that demonstration into a qualified fleet capability.

The German parliament’s Budget Committee approved the adaptation effort on September 23, with the German Defense Ministry describing it as a means of expanding the F125’s self-defense capabilities in response to the current air threat. The ministry also pointed to IRIS-T SLM’s combat experience in Ukraine.

The effort needs to be seen in the context of why the F125 has been such a controversial warship in the first place.

As TWZ examined in 2017, the F125 is a roughly 7,200-ton, 490-foot warship with an unusually small core crew and a concept of operations centered on long-duration deployments, stabilization missions, crisis management, conflict prevention, and international intervention rather than high-end fleet combat. The class was designed to spend long periods away from Germany and operate with relatively modest manpower requirements.

But its armament does not remotely match the size and sophistication of the hull. A completed, the ships were equipped with eight RGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, a 127mm gun, remotely operated guns and, for close-quarters air defense, two RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile launchers. The F125 has no medium- or long-range surface-to-air missile capability and no organic sonar or dedicated anti-submarine warfare weapon system.

At the same time, the TRS-4D/NR radar and other sensors can see far beyond the engagement envelope of the close-in air-defense weapons, but there is little the ship itself can do with that information against an aircraft or incoming missile at medium range.

Nearly a decade later, IRIS-T SLM is emerging as an answer to at least part of that problem.

Even with IRIS-T SLM, the F125 is well short of being an air warfare destroyer. It also still lacks an organic anti-submarine warfare capability or the kind of large vertical-launch missile battery found on Germany’s F124 frigates.

However, it does fill a gap between the F125’s originl short-range defenses and the capabilities of other ships or aircraft operating around it.

IRIS-T SLM is designed as a medium-range surface-to-air system, with an engagement range of around 25 miles and an altitude envelope of approximately 65,000 feet. As shown in the 2025 demonstration, the F125’s radar can feed information directly into the missile system, exploiting the ship’s existing sensor capabilities.

IRIS-T SLM (Medium Range Ground-Based Air Defence)

Rather than rely heavily on escorts for protection against airborne threats outside the short range of RAM, an IRIS-T-equipped F125 could at least contribute to its own medium-range air defense. Recent operations in the Middle East hve underscored the importance of this in contested maritime environments.

It also gives the ships a more useful role in a task group. The threat environment has changed substantially since the F125’s original concept was drafted. Cruise missiles, drones, loitering munitions, and increasingly sophisticated aircraft mean that even ships operating away from a major naval war can face threats well beyond the range of their existing close-in defenses.

In November 2024, Germany confirmed that the F125 frigate Baden-Württemberg, returning from an Indo-Pacific deployment, would avoid the Red Sea and sail around Africa because of the Houthi missile and drone threat. The German Defense Ministry explicitly cited the ship’s limited air defense capability and its inability to provide an effective air-defense umbrella for itself or its accompanying replenishment ship.

Ironically, the F125’s large hull, extensive electrical power, sophisticated radar, substantial aviation facilities, long endurance and relatively spacious mission areas were always supposed to provide room for a flexible approach to future missions. Yet the class’s original weight and integration constraints made adding major weapons difficult, a concern TWZ also highlighted in 2017.

IRIS-T SLM offers Germany a way to add a meaningful capability without undertaking the much more invasive redesign associated with installing a conventional vertical-launch system. The 2025 demonstration used an AAW module mounted on the ship’s deck rather than a conventional VLS installation, and today’s program is focused on adapting the system to the F125 architecture.

Once IRIS-T SLM is installed, the F125 will still be an unusual frigate. It is enormous by the standards of its mission, optimized for endurance, and lacks some of the weapons traditionally associated with a high-end surface combatant. But it will bring more to a contested fight.

The program should give the class a credible medium-range air-defense role, and provide Germany with a way to get considerably more utility out of four ships whose original design philosophy was always somewhat controversial.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Security threats prompt US and Australia to suspend diplomatic operations in Brazil before pivotal election day.

The United States has suspended consular services in Brazil, prompting Australia to close its embassy in the Brazilian capital, two days before Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday.

In a statement released on Thursday, the US embassy said it would suspend consular services starting on Friday and advised American citizens seeking assistance not to visit its embassy, consulates or other diplomatic facilities.

The statement cited security concerns but gave no further detail on the nature of the threat or any link to the election.

The US State Department said it was working closely with Brazilian counterparts to address the security concerns, adding that embassies and consulates routinely issue alerts about local threats and developments.

Australia’s ambassador to Brazil, Sophie Davies, said on social media that the Australian embassy would also close on Friday, citing the US alert, and advised Australians to avoid US diplomatic facilities.

Brazil’s federal police said they carried out preventive search and seizure warrants in Sao Paulo and the Federal District, the administrative region surrounding the capital, Brasilia, as part of an investigation into suspected plans that could threaten US diplomatic facilities.

Police said the operation followed cooperation with foreign intelligence agencies, but that investigators had found no evidence corroborating the initially reported threat, nor identified any suspects linked to criminal organisations.

An investigation was continuing after the seizure of communications equipment, according to the police.

The closures came two days before the Brazilian presidential election, which pits incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking re-election, against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup.

If neither candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote on Sunday, a runoff will be held on October 25.

Edinho Silva, president of Lula’s Workers’ Party, called the closures “unprecedented”, saying: “It makes no sense at all. It’s one of Trump’s ways of trying to influence Brazilian public opinion.”

Lula’s allies have pointed to US tariffs and an effort by Washington to send officials to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity” as evidence of foreign interference.

Brazilian intelligence officials briefed French and German delegations in Brasilia this month on what they described as US and Russian interference in the race.

US President Donald Trump has publicly praised Flavio Bolsonaro, a close ally, without formally endorsing him, saying he is “watching that election very closely”.

Stuttgart, Germany – Minutes after the results of the first exit polls flashed across German screens, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) declared in a televised statement at the party’s headquarters that he was going nowhere.

“It’s a disaster,” he said of the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20. “What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience. I will muster them – as party chairman of the CDU and, above all, as chancellor of our country.”

But pressure on Merz is mounting.

On Thursday, a survey by Germany’s public broadcaster ARD found that only one in 10 respondents were satisfied or very satisfied with his work. That is the lowest figure for any chancellor since the survey began in 1997.

His party crashed out of the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, failing to clear the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats – the first time this has happened since the Federal Republic of Germany was founded in 1949. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first with more than a third of the vote.

On the same day in Berlin’s state elections, the CDU suffered another major setback. It came second after The Left party, which won 25.7 percent of the vote. The Left now hopes to form a government in the capital although it will need coalition partners.

Just two weeks earlier, the CDU suffered another blow. The AfD won the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, receiving more than 40 percent of the vote, compared with 17 percent for the CDU.

No obvious successor

Merz could face a revolt within his own party, but removing him as chancellor would be considerably harder.

Under Germany’s Constitution, the Bundestag can replace a chancellor only by simultaneously electing a successor with an absolute majority.

Wolfgang Schroeder, a professor of political science at the University of Kassel, told Al Jazeera: “The CDU is in a situation where it can’t really get any further with Merz, but it also doesn’t know how things would work without him. There is no attractive replacement, so there is no alternative.”

A former chairman of the BlackRock investment company’s German supervisory board, Merz had long harboured ambitions of becoming chancellor but was sidelined by then-Chancellor and -CDU leader Angela Merkel in the early 2000s. He staged an unexpected comeback, finally taking office in May 2025.

At the helm, Merz has drawn criticism for remarks about the country’s “Stadtbild” (cityscape), widely interpreted as a suggestion that there were too many refugees and migrants on the streets. The debate has resurfaced in recent days with prominent CDU figures returning to the issue after the party’s poor election results.

The AfD’s surge is but one factor behind the decline of Germany’s long-dominant conservative party, which has produced six chancellors in its history.

The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, govern Germany in coalition with the Social Democratic  Party (SPD). The government is struggling amid the rising cost of living, deindustrialisation, crumbling infrastructure and a housing crisis in major cities.

Nils Diederich, a professor emeritus of political science at the Free University of Berlin and a former SPD member in the Bundestag, said Merz has failed to make a good impression but argued he is not the main reason for the CDU’s poor results.

“Overall, I see the coalition itself as the main problem,” he said. “The Social Democrats have worn themselves out in the coalition. They have lost their sense of direction and are putting the brakes on reforms. That, in turn, is dragging the CDU down with them.”

Schroeder told Al Jazeera: “It’s possible that the crisis surrounding the chancellor could develop into a fundamental crisis for the CDU and from there into a crisis for the coalition.”

The reform dilemma

In July, the German government announced a package of 34 measures, including reforms to pensions, taxation, bureaucracy and the labour market. Merz originally intended to push through his repeatedly promised reforms by the end of the year.

But the state elections have put the coalition parties under greater pressure to stake out their own positions.

To ease the burden on people in need of long-term care and to plug multibillion-euro deficits, the SPD is calling for a cap on care costs and for people with private health insurance to share the costs. The CDU firmly rejects both proposals on legal and financial grounds.

State premiers from both major parties and the SPD leadership want to retain the option of retiring without a pension reduction after 45 years of contributions, which they see as a reward for a lifetime of work. The conservative bloc’s business wing, however, insists that the provision be phased out.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of the SPD is planning new revenue measures to consolidate the budget but faces fierce resistance from CDU state premiers and conservative legislators determined to block any tax increases.

Schroeder warned that the coming months could be difficult.

“The CDU is caught in a dilemma. If Merz continues down the path of reforms that place a burden on society, the likelihood of cooperative governance with the SPD will diminish further. If he goes along with the course the SPD is proposing, pressure within the party will increase.”

Diederich said: “If the reforms fall through, then either Merz or the Social Democrats would have to act and let the coalition collapse.”

The next major election test will come in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, where voters elect a new parliament in April.

​Winning tip: History, buns and Italianate porticoes in Münster

In an often overlooked corner of Germany, near the Dutch border, Münster is an absolute gem. Covered porticos will convince you you’re in northern Italy, gothic churches will remind you you’re in Mitteleuropa and the buns from Zeit für Brot will insist you’re in heaven. Nature-lovers can take in the Botanical Gardens and relax by the Münstersche Aa river. Those of a historical bent can peek into the room where the Treaty of Westphalia was signed in 1648 and mull the report card of nation states in the nearly 400 years since. But really, it’s a great place just to drop-anchor and lose a few days.
Jeremy

Germany’s highest railway bridge, near Düsseldorf

In the verdant countryside near Düsseldorf, the 129-year-old Müngsten Bridge, the country’s highest railway bridge, rises 107 metres above the River Wupper. The impressive iron and steel structure is billed as Germany’s answer to the Eiffel Tower (yes, really!) and if you’ve got a head for heights, you can don a harness and make the exhilarating climb to the highest point. You’ll be rewarded with incredible views across the valley, especially if you steel yourself (!) for the nerve-racking walk across the narrow beam that spans the top of the bridge. Eat your heart out, Sydney Harbour Bridge.
Bex

A wild North Sea island made for cycling

Sylt is more than a North Sea island to us. My German grandmother met my British army grandfather, and Sylt became my mother’s childhood island. It feels made for cycling, with peaceful paths winding between grassy dunes, sweeping beaches and little villages. Spend the day riding, watching the surfers and eating warm Nutella crepes by the sea, before settling into a traditional hooded Strandkorb (hooded beach chair) to listen to the waves. Bike hire costs €8-€10 per day. It is wild, windswept and magical, somewhere our family history becomes real every time we return.
Fay

Tour the country for a month for €63

Get the Deutschlandticket! An entire month of public transport for €63 – buses, trains, trams, ferries … The only thing that isn’t included is faster long-distance trains, but you can figure out how to get from A to B using the Deutsche Bahn website, which has a special “Deutschlandticket only” filter; the need to change trains means you’ll end up discovering places you wouldn’t otherwise visit. It’s worth it just for a week, or, if you do want to travel long distances quickly, just for inner-city transport. Use the German public transport app Mopla to buy one at any time.
Joseph

Cologne’s world-class cocktails bars