Germany

Far-right AfD defeated German chancellor’s CDU in recent Saxony-Anhalt state election, casting doubt on his future.

Voters in the eastern German states of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are heading to the polls as far-right and far-left gains threaten to affect the political standing of Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

About 2.5 million people are eligible to vote in the city-state of Berlin, Germany’s capital, and nearly 1.3 million in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday. Polling booths in both states – traditionally seen as more left-leaning – opened at 8am local time (06:00 GMT) and will close at 6pm (16:00 GMT).

Pressure on Merz has been mounting after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) delivered a major defeat to his Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) party two weeks ago in the key state of Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD fell just short of an absolute majority, which would have allowed it to govern on its own.

And after just 16 months in power, Merz’s approval ratings have plunged to about 14 percent, the latest polls suggest, as he struggles to push through promised economic and social welfare reforms with his centre-left coalition partners, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), raising doubts among fellow party members whether he can continue to lead.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Merz’s party is an onlooker to the main battle between the SPD’s popular state premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD’s lead candidate, former radio presenter Leif-Erik Holm.

While the AfD was polling at 36 percent against the SPD’s 37 percent, Merz’s CDU, at just 6 percent, was dangerously close to the 5 percent hurdle needed to stay in the state parliament, according to public broadcaster ZDF.

Reporting from a polling station in Schwerin, Al Jazeera’s Dominic Kane said there was “very much all to play for” in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

“The race between the AfD here and the Social Democrat government is very close indeed,” he added, pointing out to the recent opinion polls.

In  Berlin, the CDU is running a tight race against the far-left Die Linke (The Left), which promises drastic measures to solve a dire housing crisis and is popular with young people.

Regional elections would not usually draw much interest outside Germany, but the AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt, which it sees as the first step towards winning federal elections due in 2029, has sent shockwaves through Europe.

“Saxony-Anhalt was certainly a revolution for the German party system,” Florian Hartleb, a professor of international relations at Modul University in Vienna and an expert on far-right movements, told Al Jazeera.

Hartleb said the AFD had been “fundamentally excluded” from the power system, with the other political parties trying “everything” against it in recent years. “But it didn’t work out,” he said, citing voters’ dissatisfaction over migration, the economy and social inequality.

Merz has reportedly scheduled a crisis CDU meeting and cleared his calendar to deal with potential aftershocks from Sunday’s elections.

Hans-Joachim Watzke, one of German football’s vice presidents, adds to list calling for Gianni Infantino’s resignation.

Gianni Infantino must leave the FIFA presidency “no ifs or buts”, according to Hans-Joachim Watzke, one of the vice presidents of the German Football Association (DFB), as he spoke at a festival dedicated to artificial intelligence in Berlin.

The DFB was one of the few federations not to sign a letter of support for Infantino’s re-election as FIFA president in six months’ time.

“He has to go, no ifs or buts,” declared Watzke, who said late on Thursday that three points in particular counted against the Swiss.

The first was the FIFA Peace Prize, launched by Infantino and awarded in December 2025 to US President Donald Trump, to whom Infantino is close, during the draw for the 2026 World Cup.

Infantino “created this prize himself, and he decided on it himself,” said Watzke.

“You can’t just invent something on your own and then announce it, it’s madness,” said Watzke.

Watzke also condemned the controversial handling of the Folarin Balogun red card during this year’s World Cup, which was hosted in the US, Canada and Mexico.

The American forward was sent off in the last 32 but his automatic one-match suspension was lifted after a phone call from Trump to Infantino.

“It can’t be that when someone gets sent off, the head of state calls the FIFA president, and, remarkably, the whole thing is immediately overturned. That’s madness,” said Watzke.

The third issue was the project, unveiled on July 28 and dropped four days later, to create a commercial company that would have been open to private investors and became a focal point of the rebellion against Infantino.

“It’s completely insane,” said Watzke. “Nobody knew about it, his vice presidents in FIFA knew nothing, the Council knew nothing.”

DFB president Bernd Neuendorf said earlier in the week in an interview with RTL/ntv television that it was also time for Infantino to depart.

“The relationship of trust with Gianni Infantino, under this FIFA leadership, has of course been completely shattered,” he said.

“It’s important that this Infantino system comes to an end.”

For now, Infantino is the only candidate for the FIFA presidency in the election scheduled for March 18, 2027, with candidacies open until November 18.

Frankfurt grapples with a rare malaria outbreak tied to air travel, marking three deaths in recent months.

A third person has died from malaria after a recent cluster of cases linked to Frankfurt Airport, in what German officials have described as an extremely rare air-traffic-related ⁠outbreak of the tropical disease.

In a statement on Thursday, city administration said the person died at Frankfurt hospital and was one of two infected residents living in the Schwanheim district, in the immediate vicinity of the airport.

The two new malaria cases in the neighbourhood had been reported on Tuesday.

“Both individuals ‌had become infected with the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium falciparum, even though they had not travelled to a malaria-endemic region and had not worked at the airport,” the statement said.

According to the city’s public health department, the two newly infected people contracted the disease from a mosquito flown into Germany on an aircraft or in luggage.

Six Frankfurt airport workers had contracted malaria tropica, the most dangerous form of the disease, in July, authorities said. Two later died.

Malaria is a potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne disease that is extremely rare in Germany.

The malaria parasite is spread between ⁠humans by some types of mosquitoes, but not through direct human-to-human contact.

Frankfurt Airport operator Fraport said it set up traps to catch ⁠mosquitoes and sent the insects to a laboratory in Antwerp in Belgium in July and August, but ‌results were not available yet.

Health authorities have warned doctors near the airport to consider malaria in patients who come in with a fever.

Airport workers and residents have been urged to seek medical advice in case they display symptoms including fever, chills, headaches, confusion, seizures and breathing difficulties.

An airport spokesperson said local public health authorities had the power ‌in ‌principle to order airlines to disinfect aircraft.

From the long sandy beaches of the Baltic coast, to the clubs and galleries of Berlin, via the castles of Bavaria and the hiking trails of the Black Forest, Germany has so much to offer. We’d love to hear about your favourite travel experiences and places.

The best tip of the week, chosen by Tom Hall of Lonely Planet wins a £200 voucher to stay at a Coolstays property – the company has more than 3,000 worldwide. The best tips will appear in the Guardian Travel section and website.

Keep your tip to about 100 words

If you have a relevant photo, do send it in – but it’s your words we will be judging for the competition.

We’re sorry, but for legal reasons you must be a UK resident to enter this competition.

The competition closes on Monday 21 September at 10am BST

Have a look at our past winners and other tips

Read the terms and conditions here

Share your travel tip using the form below.

Please share your story if you are 18 or over, anonymously if you wish. For more information please see our terms of service and privacy policy.

If you’re having trouble using the form click here. Read terms of service here and privacy policy here.

The European Union entry-exit system (EES) has caused repeated delays for Brits at major EU airports this year

British holidaymakers heading abroad may finally be able to breathe a sigh of relief over the widely-criticised EES system. The scheme forces non-EU residents to queue at special machines in airports before gaining entry to 29 nations within the so-called Schengen area – essentially the majority of the European Union.

However, there have been persistent reports of lengthy delays – some stretching to as long as four hours. A new report in the Sunday Times now reveals that the European Union has shelved the controversial entry-exit system (EES) across at least nine countries.

Portugal, Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Malta, Greece and Switzerland are all understood to have been granted permission to postpone full implementation of EES. The newspaper reports that there appears to be no deadline by which these countries must adopt the scheme, which has already sparked widespread reports of enormous queues at European airports this summer in destinations such as Mallorca, Faro, the Canary Islands and Milan.

The scheme has faced fierce criticism from Ryanair and others. The European Union describes the Entry/Exit System (EES) as an automated IT system designed to register non-EU nationals travelling on short stays each time they cross the external borders of participating European countries.

Following years of postponements, the system was rolled out from October 2025, with full implementation originally anticipated by the following April. However, faced with the prospect of significant border queues due to software failures, officials granted countries a 150-day grace period during which they could drop the checks to avoid travel chaos.

That rule ended on September 6. The EU previously insisted there would be no extension.

Yet the Sunday Times reports that at least nine Schengen countries are understood to have told the European Commission, which is responsible for overseeing the EES, that they would not enforce the new controls in full until the technology and systems were working correctly.

They have informally been allowed to do so with no time limits apparently in place to adopt the system, it is being reported. One of the main purposes of the system is to track whether non-EU citizens have spent more than their permitted 90 days in the bloc in a rolling 180-day period.

Social media has been awash with debate about the scheme. One post on Reddit saw a traveller say: “They made a mess of it. Seems many basic things like it is hit and miss on the document scanning but also things like people walk up with hats and headphones and the machine doesn’t tell them to remove them, and organisational things like if the machine errors the traveller has to back out and has no where to go.

“The right way to do this would have been progressive: start by getting some people eg 5% going through the machine lane, everyone else through normal.

“The vendor observes problems, fixes them, once machine working well, increase to 10%, then 20% and so on.” Another person said: “The general lack of functionality of so many IT systems across the EU is kind of astonishing.”

A third added: “It’s worse than that. There isn’t even consistent protocol/IT support within a single EU airport.”

Another put it more simply, saying: “I just miss having stamps.”

‘People are missing their flights’

Nadia, from Greater Manchester, told the Guardian in August she had made two trips to Schengen areas this summer. A trip to Tenerife in June was “quite straightforward”, but her experience in July at Frankfurt airport where she was picking up a connecting flight home, was much less so.

“The queue there was ridiculously long, and there was very limited information,” she says. “People were wandering around trying to work out where they needed to go.

“I’m very well travelled and pretty confident, but even I was slightly unsure and was thinking, is there some other queue I should be joining? There was no one nearby to check with without losing your place.”

Eventually, her passport was checked. “He didn’t actually take fingerprints then,” says Nadia, who is a solicitor. “I think the queue was so long they decided to dispense with that.

“It’s the efficiency of the system I question and the fact that individual member states’ systems do not talk to one another. They shouldn’t need to get information again if you have already gone through. It’s pretty shambolic, and I think people missing their flights because of it is just not acceptable, especially when there’s no recourse; it’s not your fault.”

Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has repeatedly complained about EES. Speaking earlier this year, he said: “There’s a bit of Brexit in this too. Here, you voted for Brexit – f***ing join the queue.”

Protesters in about 20 cities, including Berlin, Hamburg and Munich, demand the banning of the Alternative for Germany.

Tens of thousands of people took to the streets across Germany to protest against the Alternative for Germany (AfD) after the far-right party won a state election by a landslide.

About 150,000 demonstrators turned out in roughly 20 cities on Saturday, including Berlin, Hamburg and Munich, in rallies organised by Pruef, a campaign group pushing for a ban on the AfD.

Protesters carried signs reading “Ban the AfD now” and “Democracy needs no alternatives.”

“A broad cross-section of civil society is taking to the streets to prevent the enemies of the constitution … from gaining government power,” said Christoph Bautz, head of Campact, another campaign group involved in the protests, which put turnouts at about 25,000 in Hamburg and 12,000 in Munich.

According to police, several thousand more joined separate demonstrations in Berlin.

The AfD held its own counter-rally in the German capital, attended by Kristin Brinker, the party’s lead candidate for Berlin’s upcoming regional election.

The protests follow a stunning result for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, a state in eastern Germany, where the party took nearly 44 percent of the vote on September 6 — far ahead of the roughly 17 percent won by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has long dominated German politics.

The AfD, known for its anti-immigration stance and friendly posture towards Russia, fell just short of an outright majority and is now in talks with other parties to try to form a government, which would make it the first far-right party to lead a German state since the Nazi era ended in 1945.

AfD state leader Ulrich Siegmund called the result historic, telling supporters: “The people have made it absolutely clear that they finally want political change and, above all, they have shown that they want it with us.” He has since signalled openness to working with other parties, after previously saying he wanted to govern alone.

The AfD’s growing strength has deeply unsettled many Germans, given the country’s history and its commitment to never repeating it.

The party is projected to win 39 of 83 seats in the state parliament, three short of a majority. It now needs a coalition partner, though all mainstream parties have so far refused to govern with the AfD under a longstanding policy known as the “firewall.” The far-right party has never joined a governing coalition anywhere in Germany, at either state or national level.

The unease has fuelled growing calls to ban the AfD altogether, though that would be legally difficult in Germany, and Chancellor Merz has been reluctant to pursue it.

GET into your liederhosen, your dirndls and grab your beer jug because it’s almost time for Oktoberfest.

If you want to celebrate the festival without the flight to Germany – these are some of the best ones in the country with fancy dress and even bratwurst eating competitions.

Albert’s Schloss

It’s go big or go home at Albert’s Schloss which calls itself the ‘UK’s ultimate Oktoberfest 2026 party.

It has venues across the country too from Manchester to Birmingham, Liverpool and London.

There are Bavarian feasts with generous helpings of crispy pork knuckle and juicy schnitzels to bratwursts and sauerkraut.

When it comes to entertainment, there are bratwurst eating competitions, traditional keg tapping and best Lederhosen Competitions.

TOP STAYS

Best-rated UK hotels as voted for by guests – with rooms from just £31 a night

ISLE BE GOING

Sun Travel’s favourite islands from Europe’s Caribbean to a £2 wine paradise

Enjoy live performances from Oompah Bands, Brass Bands and DJs.

For fans of beer (or bier) – it’s one of the only places outside of Munich you can try all six Oktoberfest beers.

If you want to taste them all, make sure to even book a Bier Masterclass for a beer-tasting experience hosted by in-haus tapsters.

Celebrations run from September 19 to October 25 – and book in advance to guarantee entry.

Finsbury Park Oktoberfest

If you’re a London local, Finsbury Park will be the place to be – it’s the biggest Oktoberfest celebration in London.

The huge Bavarian-style beer festival takes place inside a giant blue-and-white festive tent from October 1-3.

Enjoy authentic German food from bratwurst in bread, schnitzel to pretzels.

Make sure to wash it down with specially brewed Bavarian FestBeer in a traditional stein.

Of course there’s lots of live entertainment from German oompah bands and Schlager music – oh, and dressing up is highly encouraged.

General admission starts from £10.

Oktoberfest

The UK’s biggest Oktoberfest tour will return this year in cities across the country.

Enormous tents will be transformed into traditional bierkellers with long bench-style seating, and lots of German Bier.

Don’t forget about the live music and bands, competitions all with a party atmosphere.

The tours will head to Colchester, Chichester, Milton Keynes, Guilford, Southend, Beverley, Chelmsford, Plymouth and Portsmouth from October 2-31.

Tickets start from £16.95.

Brewhemia

Brewhemia is known as Scotland’s “beer palace” – so it’s no surprise it’s a top spot for Oktoberfest.

Have your costumes at the ready and enjoy an Oktoberfest beer from Paulaner, Hacker-Pschorr to Flotzinger Wies’n-Märzen and Bitburger Premium Pils.

There’s plenty of food to go around from fresh pretzels to bratwursts to smoky Käsekrainers and spicy Chilliwursts.

You can even try all three with Sausage Fest where you get a platter of all of them with all the trimmings.

The celebrations run from September 19 to October 4 – and of course there’s live music throughout.

You can reserve a drinks area for parties of 4-40 guests – if there’s less then just walk-in.

BERLIN: Buoyed by partisan home fans, host Germany upset Belgium 93-74 to reach the semifinals of the women’s FIBA World Cup on Thursday.

Leonie Fiebich scored 17 points and had 10 rebounds to lead Germany to a showdown with France on Saturday. Nyara Sabally also had a double-double with 16 points and 12 rebounds.

“I can’t quite believe it yet,” forward Frieda Bühner said. “We’re among the best four teams in the world. I can’t believe it. It’s crazy.”

The players screamed and whooped in celebration. Germany had never reached the semifinals before.

“Everyone stepped up today and we did it from the first second to the very last,” said Alexandra Wilke, who scored 10 points.

Germany lost their opening game by 30 points to Spain, but bounced back with impressive wins over Japan and Mali before routing South Korea in a playoff to reach the quarterfinals.

Egged on by fervent commentary from the announcer, fans cheered, jumped and waved Germany flags at the Berlin Arena to help the home team keep their momentum going.

“It’s always really cool to play in front of such a crowd,” Sabally said. “I couldn’t have wished for more, especially in Germany. It’s really cool to see that there’s so much hype and the whole venue is caught up in it. It’s really, really cool.”

It’s the sixth straight World Cup at which the host have made the final four since China failed to make the semifinals in 2002.

Belgium, the European champion, were one of three teams that advanced through group play without a loss.

Emma Meesseman led Belgium with 29 points and added eight rebounds, but her team were unable to regain the lead after Bühner made it 20-19 toward the end of the first quarter.

Germany did not qualify for the World Cup since the unified country’s only previous appearance as host in 1998. East Germany’s women’s basketball team finished fourth at the 1967 tournament.

France rout China

Marine Johannès and Janelle Salaün led France to the semifinals for the first time by beating China 90-61 earlier.

Both Johannès and Salaün scored 15 points while Gabby Williams contributed 14 as the Olympic finalists put themselves in contention for a first World Cup medal since the inaugural tournament in 1953, when France finished third in the final round.

“It means a lot,” Williams said of reaching the semifinals for the first time. “We want to be one of the greatest teams ever to put on the French jersey. Obviously, we have a big goal this tournament, but it’s great to check this off the list.”

Chants of “Allez les Bleues” rang around the Berlin Arena before Williams opened the scoring, and the French supporters made sure they were heard for the rest of the game as their team dominated on the court below. France have been fluid and free-scoring, beating their four opponents so far by a combined 156 points.

The team set a tournament record for 3-pointers in a single game by netting 22 in their final group game on Monday. The French players connected on 14 of 37 attempts Thursday, with Johannès and Salaün scoring three triples each.

“We are lucky because we are a group that have known each other for a couple of years now,” Salaün said of France’s team spirit. “We went through a lot of things, the Olympics, training camp(s), so we just know each other and we know what we want. We have a goal and we want to do everything to get to this goal.”

Salaün had an ice pack bound to her right knee. France coach Jean Aime Toupane told The Associated Press it was just a precaution.

Zhang’s impact limited

The French defense limited the impact of China’s 7-foot-3 Zhang Ziyu, who had the attention of two French players any time she received the ball. The 19-year-old sensation was held scoreless over her 7 minutes, 18 seconds of play in the first half, though she contributed in defense with three blocks before halftime.

There was nothing Zhang could do to stop Johannès from scoring successive 3-pointers in the third quarter, when she also got on the scoreboard. Zhang finished the game with seven points, eight rebounds and seven turnovers.

Han Xu, who had a double-double in each of her four games at the tournament, again led China with 21 points and nine rebounds.

US never in danger

The United States, the four-time defending champion, routed Hungary 108-56 in the first quarterfinal with Napheesa Collier scoring 19 points to stretch their winning run in the tournament to 34 games since a semifinal loss to Russia in the 2006 semifinals.

The US await the winner of Spain-Australia in the last quarterfinal later.

BERLIN: The leader of the United Arab Emirates began a state visit to Germany on Thursday, during which deals worth billions of euros will be signed in sectors including energy and technology, Emirati diplomats said.

Berlin rolled out the red carpet for Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, who was received with military honors by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and was later to meet Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Security was tight for the visit, with Berlin cordoning off flag-lined streets and deploying large numbers of police.

“Over the course of this visit, the UAE and Germany will make a number of key announcements and multibillion-euro agreements across investment, business, technology, AI and energy,” senior UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh said at a briefing ahead of the visit.

The visit comes as the US war against Iran has roiled the Gulf region, with US President Donald Trump’s erratic diplomacy unsettling many midsize powers and leading them to diversify their strategic and economic partnerships.

Merz visited the Gulf region in February, shortly before the US-Israeli war started against Iran. He said then that “we need such partnerships more than ever at a time when major powers are increasingly dominating politics”.

The UAE is Germany’s largest trading partner in the Gulf, with bilateral trade topping $15 billion last year, and many big German companies have a presence there including BMW, Siemens, ThyssenKrupp and rail operator Deutsche Bahn.

The UAE meanwhile has made major investments in Germany, including in the chemical industry and offshore wind power.

During Merz’s visit in February, German energy giant RWE and Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC signed a memorandum of understanding on LNG imports over the next decade.

Gulf countries have also long bought defense equipment from Germany and have shown interest in start-ups that make drones to bolster NATO’s deterrence efforts against Russia.

Germany, the largest EU economy, supports talks towards a European Union free trade deal with the Emirates.

The group Human Rights Watch called on German leaders during the visit to “publicly call out the United Arab Emirates’ human rights record and its role in regional conflicts”.

No joint press conference was scheduled with Merz and Sheikh Mohamed.

This country rakes in trillions every year

When you think about wealthy countries, places like Dubai, China and the US might spring to mind. However, Europe has its fair share of rich countries too. The wealthiest of all has been revealed in new data this year, and it’s not Luxembourg or Sweden.

According to figures from the World Population review, Germany is Europe’s wealthiest country when judged by gross domestic product (GDP). Germany has a GDP of $5.45trillion (£4.026T).

What is GDP?

GDP is a way to measure a country’s productivity and prosperity. The GDP of a country is the total monetary value of all goods and services which that country produced within its borders over a year.

To calculate it, economists take the spending of everyday consumers, the investment of businesses in the country, and government spending and net exports to figure out the final calculation.

If GDP is rising year on year, it’s a good sign that the country is doing well financially. If it is consistently lowering, it’s a sign of an incoming recession.

Is it accurate?

GDP is not a very accurate indicator of the prosperity of a country’s people. It does not indicate how the wealth is distributed, nor the happiness or individual wealth of people.

These flaws are why GDP is often calculated alongside other metrics such as the Human Development Index, which measures the economy as well as life expectancy and education to get a better idea of how a country is functioning.

There’s also the Inclusive Wealth Index, which measures the “savings account” of a country by looking at infrastructure, natural resources and workforce alongside its finances.

How does the UK compare?

According to the most recent data, the UK is in second place with a GDP of $4.23trillion (£3.148T).

France is in third place with $3.17trillion (£2.654T), Italy fourth with $2.42trillion (£2.021T), and Russia fifth with $2.21trillion (£1.962T).

In the case of Germany’s GDP, it is larger than two other European nations combined. Portugal has $380.6billion (£281.0B), and Greece has $307.6billion (£227.1B).

Greek teenage star Konstantinos Karetsas faced ‘circulatory problems’ and was stretchered off against Villarreal.

Borussia Dortmund teenage star Konstantinos Karetsas was being treated at the hospital after slumping to the turf 25 minutes into his Champions League debut, the German club said.

“Konstantinos Karetsas had to leave the field due to circulatory problems,” Dortmund said in a statement late on Tuesday. “Kosta is doing well under the circumstances and is on his way to the hospital for further tests.”

Facing Villarreal, the 18-year-old Greek prospect passed the ball to a teammate, then signalled his distress to the referee before sitting on the grass.

Karetsas was treated lying down and then taken away on a stretcher. The score was 0-0 at the time in what became a 3-2 win for Dortmund.

“I hope and I think that everything is OK, and I hope that he’s back and fit with us soon,” Dortmund goalkeeper Gregor Kobel told a broadcaster.

Karetsas and his Greek teammate Giannis Konstantelias were marquee signings for Dortmund in the off-season. Former Belgium youth international Karetsas joined for $34.9m from Genk and Konstantelias for $30.2m from PAOK.

Karetsas was reportedly a target for many clubs after impressing at Genk last season. He set up 11 goals in 28 Jupiler Pro League appearances. He signed a five-year contract through June 2031.

“With his creativity and game intelligence, Kos will enrich our team,” Dortmund sporting director Ole Book said. “He is technically very skilled and has the ability to find quick solutions in tight spaces, especially in the final third.”

Karetsas played for Belgium’s youth teams before opting to represent his parents’ country and making his debut for Greece in March 2025. He has scored three goals in 10 international appearances.

Meanwhile, 23-year-old Konstantelias’ season was likely ended last month by an ACL injury on his Bundesliga debut.

For the first time since World War II, a far-right party is within reach of power at state level in Germany, after coming first in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 44 percent of the vote, stopping short of an overall majority but making clear its wide political significance.

On election night, AfD’s leader in the state called on other political groups to cooperate. “As a democrat, I will reach out to all those who wish to work with us to bring about a fundamental political turnaround,” Ulrich Siegmund said.

Yet, forming a government will prove difficult. The AfD has been classified as “far-right extremist” by the domestic intelligence agency and other political groups remain wary of striking an alliance.

The AfD has dismissed accusations of extremism and mainstream parties have been unable to halt its surge in the polls over recent months. Latest polling indicates the party, which stands for strong restrictions on immigration, restoring ties with Russia, cutting support to Ukraine and quitting the euro, is Germany’s most popular at national level.

The Saxony-Anhalt election could be a harbinger of a historic return of the far-right in the 2029 national election, when forecasts say the AfD stands a realistic chance of finishing first.

What happened in Saxony-Anhalt?

Siegmund, the charismatic 35-year-old who attracted thousands to his campaign rallies, said AfD “made history”.

“The people have made it absolutely clear that they finally want political change and, above all, they have shown that they want it with ⁠us,” he told supporters.

The AfD achieved its best-ever election result in Saxony-Anhalt with 44 percent of the vote, leaving all other parties far behind. The incumbent centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, scored less than half of that share with 17 percent.

The AfD is projected to gain 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament in Magdeburg, leaving it three short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority.

That means the party must find allies, but all other mainstream parties refuse to work with the far-right, a strategy of non-cooperation known as the “firewall”. The AfD has so far never participated in a governing coalition in Germany’s 16 states nor in its federal government.

While he now appears willing to strike deals with other parties to come to power, previously Siegmund signalled unwillingness to find middle ground with other political groups. Leading up to the vote, he stated that he was only interested in governing alone to bring about fundamental political change in Germany.

How did AfD fare in recent elections?

The election takes the AfD one step closer to advancing its agenda, while also reflecting the growing unpopularity of Germany’s ruling coalition.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the party more than doubled its vote share — from 21 percent in the last election. By contrast, the CDU’s vote halved from 37 percent to 17 percent, its worst result ever in the east-central German state.

Federal elections last year similarly resulted in a landmark performance by the AfD, which emerged as the largest opposition faction in the Bundestag, the German federal parliament in Berlin. The party came second with 21 percent of the vote, securing its highest-ever showing.

In state elections in Baden-Wurttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate earlier this year too, the AfD more than doubled its seats — though it still finished third. In 2024, the AfD emerged victorious in the Thuringia state election and second in the Brandenburg state election — both were firsts for the party.

The AfD’s electoral gains in Saxony-Anhalt mirror growing dissatisfaction among voters — especially in the former East Germany — about the stagnant economy, high unemployment and domestic security, which the party largely pins on immigration.

What challenges lie ahead for AfD?

Since its formation in 2013, the AfD has been embroiled in various scandals and has faced major controversies, including alleged foreign espionage links, secret deportation plans and internal nepotism.

The party went from a fringe Eurosceptic group to the country’s most powerful opposition force in little more than a decade, becoming too extreme even for the European Parliament’s far-right Identity & Democracy group. It kicked the party out in May 2024 after lead AfD candidate Maximilian Krah stated that not everyone in the SS – Adolf Hitler’s infamous Nazi paramilitary organisation – was a criminal.

Krah has also been under investigation by German prosecutors for alleged illegal payments, bribery and money laundering linked to China and Russia. The German parliament last year decided to lift the far-right legislator’s immunity to help investigators.

AfD politicians have also come under fire for employing family members, including in Saxony-Anhalt, where several parliamentarians are reported to have employed relatives.

Bundestag President, Julia Klockner, banned seven AfD employees from entering the German parliament over security concerns, after they failed internal background reliability checks due to their ties to right-wing extremist networks and past criminal convictions.

Senior AfD figures also faced a backlash for attending a secretive meeting to discuss mass deportation plans for people with a migration background.

What are the AfD’s prospects for the national election in 2029?

Pollsters are unanimous in forecasting the AfD as the largest party in Germany in the next national election in 2029, with around 28 percent of the vote.

That would mark a major transformation in the German political landscape from 2025, when the CDU and its ally the Christian Social Union together won 28.5 percent of the vote.

Yet even that outcome would not necessarily give AfD the ability to govern. If other parties maintain a “firewall” policy, that could prevent the far-right party from forming a coalition government.

Still, the Saxony-Anhalt election has been received by some politicians as a call for change. “Politics begins with considering reality,” Cem Ozdemir, head of government in the southwestern state of Baden-Wurttemberg and a member of the Green Party, wrote on X.

“That means the AfD is the election winner in Saxony-Anhalt. And that must mean for all democratic forces that nothing can remain as it is, and we must fundamentally reconsider our politics and our political style.”

BERLIN  — Leaders of an extremist, far-right party in Germany have quietly borrowed pages from President Trump’s playbook to cast doubt on the integrity of absentee voting — alleging without evidence that residents of nursing homes have had their ballots manipulated and calling for an end to postal voting.

The attack on mail ballots comes as Germany approaches a potentially historic state election that could shatter one of the taboos of its postwar political order by opening the door to a far-right government.

Politicians across the ideological spectrum, mindful that polls show Trump to be widely unpopular, don’t invoke his name.

But the specter of the American president nevertheless hangs over the election that could have reverberations across Europe if the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, party — tacitly echoing Trump’s attacks on migrants, the media and the integrity of elections — pulls off an unprecedented political shock in postwar Germany.

In a country where the guilt of its Nazi past is never far from the surface, the AfD has unapologetically campaigned against what it portrays as the shackles of Germany’s history and won over many new supporters, in part by adopting Trump’s hard-line stance on migrants and his drumbeat of attacks on mainstream news outlets.

The AfD leader, Tino Chrupalla, surprised Germans recently with warnings of voter fraud in the Sunday election in Saxony-Anhalt state, telling a national television audience that some senior citizens in nursing homes had had their absentee ballots cast and signed for them without their knowledge.

This week, in neighboring Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state, the AfD candidate for governor, Leif-Erik Holm, declared, “Postal voting is more vulnerable to potential attempts of manipulation.”

Election officials and organizations representing nursing home caregivers have rejected the allegations and say there is no evidence of voter fraud.

The AfD, considered one of the most extreme far-right parties in Europe, has surged so far ahead in opinion polls that it could emerge as the dominant political force in Saxony-Anhalt and potentially lead a German state government for the first time, either with an absolute majority or with a junior coalition partner.

Trump has spent years attacking mail-in voting as vulnerable to fraud, despite scant evidence of widespread abuse. Trump himself has voted by mail in recent elections. His administration continues to fight court battles to limit voting by mail.

“Sowing distrust in political institutions is part of the strategy of right-wing populist parties,” said Marcel Lewandowsky, a political scientist at Martin Luther University in Halle, Germany.

“The ‘rigged election’ lie is a powerful narrative within the MAGA movement,” he added, “and serves as a crucial element that fosters a shared identity” with far-right parties in Europe. (Such messaging has also been employed by many rightist politicians in Latin America.)

An AfD victory in one of Germany’s 16 federal states would in one fell swoop obliterate a central tenet of the postwar order: that the far right must never return to power in the country responsible for the Holocaust and the devastation of Europe in World War II.

Many fear that taking power there could serve as a springboard for the ostracized party at the national level, where it is leading opinion polls with about 29% support, putting it far ahead of the other four parties with seats in the federal Parliament.

“Trumpism and the MAGA movement have undoubtedly been an inspiration and model for many European radical right parties,” said Lars Rensmann, a political scientist at the University of Passau who has studied the far right. “In many ways, Trump has been the successful model many European radical right parties try to follow while adopting it to European conditions.”

The AfD’s ascent has parallels across Europe, from Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party to Britain’s Nigel Farage, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Herbert Kickl in Austria. In France, the far-right Rassemblement National is looking to the 2027 presidential race with its candidate, Marine Le Pen, having perhaps her strongest chance yet of winning after reaching the runoff in 2017 and 2022.

Meloni`s relationship with Trump has cooled during her nearly four years in power, due in part to the war in Iran, tariffs and security policies that have strained U.S. relations with Italy and all of Europe.

President Trump greets Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at a summit Egypt in 2025. Their once warm relationship has since cooled.

(Evan Vucci / Pool via Associated Press)

Yet there is no pan-European alliance of the far right, in part because these parties champion their own national interests.

“Some components of Trumpism can be shared and exported, such as hostility towards migration and ‘wokeism,’ but it is very clear that national interests that the far-right champion cannot be defended the same way as the American national interests,” said Giovanni Orsina, head of the political science department at LUISS University in Rome.

“If you put your nation first and do so aggressively, you have diverging national interests and so it’s not possible to have an international network of nationalists,” Orsina added.

But many far-right leaders are united in one sense. They admire not just Trump’s tactics, but the “boldness of his transgressions, dismantling liberal and civil norms by repeating things that were once deemed unacceptable for someone seeking public office,” said Rensmann.

“Trump is unpopular in Germany, even across the political right,” Lewandowsky said. “It would be risky for the AfD to embrace him openly, especially because he failed to keep his promise not to start any further wars and large segments of the public feel threatened by the United States under Trump.”

The AfD was created in 2013 as a small anti-euro party before morphing into an anti-migrant force that tapped into voter frustration over immigration and the strains many Germans perceive on housing, jobs and public services.

Despite being ostracized by mainstream parties and kept out of coalition cooperation, it has survived and thrived as a disruptive force.

In the last decade Germany has sheltered millions of refugees, mainly from Syria and other troubled countries in the Middle East. It provides housing, medical care and generous financial support to refugees that AfD politicians say serve as a magnet. Trump once accused former German Chancellor Angela Merkel of “ruining” her country by allowing in so many refugees.

“I think this could be a watershed moment for Europe,” Orsina said of the upcoming election.

An election poster touts the far-right Alternative for Germany party, AfD, right, in Berlin in 2025. It reads “Now AfD.”

(Michael Sohn / Associated Press)

He said the election in 2022 of Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party, which traces its origins to Italy’s postwar neo-fascist movement, sparked fears across Europe that, in hindsight, may have been exaggerated. But Germany is a different story when it comes to the far right.

“Some said she is a neo-fascist and a danger to democracy, but most people in Italy didn’t believe that,” he said. “Italy isn’t a better democracy after four years of Meloni but it isn’t any worse either. But Germany isn’t Italy. And Germany’s relationship with its past is a lot different.”

David Bebnowski, an author who has written books on far-right populism and who is a history instructor at the Free University in Berlin, said there is another important connection among far-right voters across Europe that the AfD is tapping into — a yearning for change in countries where establishment parties have struggled to respond to voter frustration.

Trump’s success as a force for disruption, he said, has provided a powerful example.

“You can’t really trace a grand MAGA strategy adopted by the far right, but you can see that they are, in part, very much in line with the ‘spirit of Trumpism,’” Bebnowski said. “What aligns them is a sense of disruption and optimism that they will be able to change the way politics are done in a way the other parties can’t.”

Kirschbaum is a special correspondent.

Germany, Austria, ⁠Greece, Denmark and the Netherlands did not outline where the centres would be located.

Five European nations have agreed on concrete steps towards a deal with an unspecified non-European Union country to host migrant return facilities, senior officials said, in a sign of mounting determination to counter immigration.

Germany, Austria, ⁠Greece, Denmark and the Netherlands, known as the Group of Five, aim to sign deals this year to send migrants without legal residency to countries outside the European Union. The nations expected to host return centres have not been named.

“Around New Year, we expect to have a common understanding with a partner country outside of the European Union,” Danish Immigration and Integration Minister Morten Bodskov told reporters on Friday at a news conference in Copenhagen, without elaborating.

“It’s a new chance to have a life in a partner country,” he said, adding ‌that the five nations would be in dialogue with the International Organization for Migration and the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) on their next steps.

A spokesperson for UNHCR said the agency had not been approached with ‌details ‌of the proposal and therefore could not comment.

The Group of Five is set to reconvene in Munich, Germany, at the end of September to advance the plan.

German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt confirmed that the group wants “to reach an agreement with ‌third countries this year that will enable the establishment of return hubs”.

The European Parliament in June approved an overhaul of migration policy aimed at speeding up deportations and allowing member states to set up centres abroad, in what some critics of the policy say could weaken safeguards for asylum seekers.

The Council of ⁠Europe, a non-EU body that promotes human rights, democracy and the rule of ⁠law, said in July that the proposed return hubs posed “considerable human rights risks”.

Danish Refugee Council Secretary-General Charlotte Slente said a better policy would be to implement the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which focuses ⁠on stricter border screening, faster return procedures and expanded digital systems for managing asylum claims.

“Return hubs focus on a small number of returns; they ⁠will not stop people from taking even more dangerous routes, and ⁠they could violate basic human rights,” she said.

Germany has now formally accused Russia of directing an attempted explosive-drone attack against Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport, a story we previously reported on. At the same time, authorities are separately investigating a sophisticated sabotage attack against a critical power-grid node in Brandenburg, underscoring Germany’s growing concern over hybrid threats to its critical infrastructure.

The two incidents, occurring against the backdrop of growing German and European warnings about Russian hybrid warfare, underscore the expanding range of vulnerabilities facing critical infrastructure across the country.

German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Tuesday that the Russian state had apparently provided the equipment and technical know-how for the Leipzig operation, with locally recruited “low-level agents” allegedly tasked with carrying it out.

The drone, discovered inside the secured area of Leipzig/Halle Airport during the night of August 4-5, was carrying approximately 1.3 pounds of explosives and was found close to a Ukrainian-operated Antonov An-124 heavy cargo aircraft used to transport weapons to Ukraine.

The detonator on the device apparently failed, preventing what German officials said could have been a catastrophe.

The incident appears to have combined several characteristics of the emerging European hybrid threat: a relatively inexpensive drone, military-grade explosives, a strategically significant target, and the alleged use of local operatives to provide distance between the attack and its suspected state sponsor.

As we discussed at the time, the choice of target at Leipzig/Halle is particularly significant. The airport is an important cargo hub, and Ukrainian Antonov aircraft operating there have been used to move weapons to Ukraine. At the very least, an explosive device detonating near one of those aircraft could have disrupted a logistics link supporting Kyiv while simultaneously creating a major aviation safety incident.

A successful attack on one of Antonov’s cargo aircraft could have caused casualties, damaged or even destroyed the aircraft, and disrupted airport operations. The presence of explosive material inside a secured airport area also demonstrates the potential for covert actors to penetrate or exploit security around critical aviation infrastructure. But above all else, the loss of an Antonov Airlines An-124 would have been highly symbolic as the huge aircraft are a global symbol of Ukraine and its resilience.

Investigators later found traces of hexogen, or RDX, a military explosive near the airport on August 14, together with another drone.

Authorities initially believed the second drone could have been part of the planned attack, although investigators have since expressed doubts about that assessment. Nevertheless, German officials now say there is sufficient evidence to attribute the attempted operation to Russia, an accusation that Moscow rejects.

The Leipzig incident was not the only major security concern confronting Germany on Tuesday.

In the eastern state of Brandenburg, authorities said the power grid was deliberately targeted with specially prepared incendiary devices and rockets carrying conductive material. The attack targeted the Turnow-Preilack substation, a critical high-voltage node connecting the Jänschwalde power plant to the 50Hertz transmission network.

According to Brandenburg Interior Minister Jan Redmann, rockets carrying conductive material were fired into extra-high-voltage transmission lines, producing two short circuits. Authorities recovered more than a dozen devices at the site, with the number still increasing as the search continued. Redmann said the design and deployment of the devices required substantial preparation.

The attack caused a brief power interruption, but 50Hertz said all affected lines had returned to operation and that the general electricity supply was never disrupted.

At the Jänschwalde power plant, the incident triggered an automatic shutdown of one generating unit. The unit was expected to return to service Tuesday evening.

While the physical damage was limited, the nature of the attack is likely to attract significant attention from German security officials. Unlike Leipzig, German authorities are not currently attributing the Brandenburg sabotage to Russia. Redmann said authorities could not rule out the involvement of a foreign power, while also declining to exclude domestic extremist or activist groups. Left-wing activists have previously attacked German electricity infrastructure.

But the incident demonstrates the same underlying vulnerability Berlin is increasingly concerned about. In an age of hybrid warfare, relatively small-scale acts of sabotage exploiting weaknesses in infrastructure can have outsized consequences. Redmann described Germany’s critical infrastructure as excessively vulnerable.

“When it comes to our critical infrastructure, we in Germany are far too vulnerable,” he said, adding that the vulnerability extended to airports.

Taken together, the incidents illustrate the breadth of the threat German officials are attempting to address.

Germany’s assessment of the Leipzig operation also points to an increasingly familiar model of suspected Russian covert activity. German officials say Russian state actors supplied the expertise and equipment but relied on local agents to conduct the physical operation. That type of operation could provide Moscow with additional deniability while allowing sabotage to be conducted by individuals already inside the target country. It also complicates the security challenge for European governments.

German intelligence sources cited by German media have reportedly identified possible links between drone, explosive, and weapons incidents in Germany and other European countries, including Bulgaria, Italy, Poland, Romania, and the United Kingdom. Investigators are understood to be examining the incidents in parallel.

If those links are confirmed, the Leipzig operation could represent one element of a broader campaign involving recruited personnel, explosives, and uncrewed systems operating across multiple European countries. Europe has spent much of the past several years strengthening conventional military deterrence while simultaneously confronting an expanding gray zone of cyberattacks, espionage, sabotage, and influence operations. Critical infrastructure is an especially attractive target in that environment. Power grids, airports, railways, telecommunications networks, ports, undersea cables, and industrial facilities are typically dispersed, difficult to protect comprehensively, and often interconnected.

An attacker does not necessarily need to destroy infrastructure to achieve an effect. A temporary shutdown, disruption to logistics or forced security response can itself create economic and operational costs, and help generate a climate of fear and mistrust. This has already been seen in the mass drone incursions over sensitive locations across NATO countries, and especially in Germany.

There has been a growing acknowledgement of a new kind of threat, in which state-backed or state-directed actors could potentially use inexpensive systems, local recruits, and covert methods to create disruption without crossing the threshold of an overt military attack, for years now. Germany is now preparing measures aimed at increasing the costs of executing these kinds of operations for Moscow. The Russian consulate in Bonn is scheduled to close later this month. Berlin also intends to remove Russian House, a cultural and scientific organization in the German capital that German authorities have associated with alleged Russian intelligence activity.

Berlin is also preparing additional measures against Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, vessels used to transport Russian oil and other commodities while circumventing Western restrictions.

Germany also plans additional sanctions and tighter border controls for Russian nationals entering the country.

At the European level, Berlin is supporting the European Commission’s proposed 22nd sanctions package against Russia, reportedly covering approximately 1,600 additional companies and organizations linked to Russia. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia would respond to what she called Berlin’s “anti-Russian action.”

NATO and EU officials have backed Germany following the Leipzig attribution. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Berlin had presented clear evidence supporting its assessment of Russian involvement. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen likewise pledged European solidarity.

The incidents at Leipzig/Halle Airport and in Brandenburg underscore Germany’s growing concern over hybrid threats to its critical infrastructure. Both demonstrate how an adversary could potentially impose costs on a NATO country while operating below the threshold of open warfare.

At the same time, these actions come as concerns grow that Russia could openly and directly challenge NATO’s resolve militarily.

Regardless, for Germany and its European allies, the biggest question that needs to be answered may now be how many apparently isolated incidents could actually be pieces of a larger campaign?

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Germany has formally accused Russia of attempting an attack last month at the Leipzig-Halle airport, a state-owned facility in the eastern part of the country.

On Tuesday, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said his country’s intelligence community had determined that a drone discovered at the airport was consistent with Russian technology. The drone had been bearing explosives, according to official reports.

The announcement triggered several retaliatory measures, including the announcement that Germany would shut down a Russian consulate.

The incident is seen as part of a growing trend in Europe, where officials fear Russia is mounting a campaign of intimidation against members of the NATO military alliance.

What was found at the Leipzig airport? How have officials responded? And what does it say about tensions between Europe and Russia as Moscow’s war in Ukraine drags on? Read on for a quick explainer on the basics.

What happened at Leipzig airport?

An explosive-laden drone was found near a cargo plane belonging to the Ukrainian firm Antonov Airlines on the evening of August 4.

An employee flagged the drone, which was located in a cargo area near a runway, resulting in a temporary shutdown at the Leipzig-Halle airport, a major cargo hub in the eastern German state of Saxony.

Specialists were called in to defuse the explosives with a robot. A second drone was reportedly destroyed after it collided with an aeroplane near the airport.

Why does Germany blame Russia?

Dobrindt, Germany’s interior minister, said investigators identified a configuration and components resembling those seen in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Taken together, the police investigations, the pattern and intelligence findings prove a Russian responsibility for the attempted attack at Leipzig airport,” Dobrindt said.

Germany’s government has not publicly shared specifics connecting the incident to Moscow or released all the evidence.

But Dobrindt said the device reflected “a high degree of technical expertise”. He added, however, that the task of carrying out the attack appears to have fallen to “low-level agents”, whom he described as people acting “on behalf of Russian state entities”. He did not specify which ones.

How has Germany responded?

Germany has taken a series of retaliatory actions since announcing the intelligence community’s findings.

Starting on September 18, a Russian consulate in Bonn, a major German city on the Rhine River, will be shuttered. The Russian House, a cultural gathering place in Berlin, will also be closed, though the date has yet to be determined.

German leaders said they would also recommend more Russians be added to the European Union’s sanctions list and consider heightening entry controls for Russian citizens.

The German Foreign Ministry has also summoned Russia’s ambassador to the country to discuss the incident.

How has Russia reacted to Germany’s claims?

Moscow has denied it had anything to do with the drone. The Russian Embassy in Berlin called the claims absurd and warned that the accusations would have consequences.

Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the government of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz of pointing the finger at Moscow to distract from domestic problems and falling approval ratings.

He also suggested that Germany had planted evidence to frame Russia for the drone incident.

How have NATO and European allies responded?

NATO allies like Poland, Italy, the United Kingdom, Sweden and the Czech Republic have all backed Berlin’s claims against Moscow.

“Whenever Russian hybrid activities target one of our allies, we are all exposed,” the Czech Foreign Ministry posted on social media.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she would discuss the incident with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and EU foreign ministers are expected to prepare a joint response.

How has Ukraine responded?

Since February 2022, Ukraine has been battling a war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

There has been speculation that Moscow’s increasing military threats in Europe are designed to weaken NATO support for Kyiv.

Ukraine has welcomed Germany’s measures against Russia, with Ukrainian Ambassador Oleksii Makeiev praising Berlin’s response on Tuesday.

Germany has been a key strategic partner for Ukraine, and in April, the two countries unveiled a security cooperation agreement that would strengthen joint air defences.

As part of the deal, Berlin agreed to fund missile contracts for Kyiv, and the two would collaborate on drone co-production.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that his country’s airspace is becoming increasingly unsafe for civilian aviation, with both sides in the war increasingly relying on drone warfare.

What other actions has Russia been accused of in Europe?

Critics have long warned that Russia is taking an increasingly aggressive stance towards Europe, which has opposed its invasion of Ukraine.

The Associated Press news agency has logged some 200 incidents of sabotage and malign activity in Europe since the 2022 invasion.

Those acts include cyberattacks, espionage, disinformation campaigns, arson and interference with infrastructure.

One case, in March 2024, involved a warehouse in east London being set on fire. The facility stored aid for Ukraine, and prosecutors blamed the attack on members of the Russian-backed Wagner Group, a paramilitary organisation.

Such low-level operations are often called “hybrid” attacks, as they remain below the threshold of open conflict but still succeed in sowing unease through violence.

Why are these tensions erupting now?

Germany says covert operations like the attempted drone attack at the Leipzig airport are meant to undermine the country’s political backing for Ukraine in its defence against Russia.

The war has stretched for more than four years, and Ukrainian officials have warned that the coming winter may prove the most challenging yet.

The attempted drone attack also comes at a pivotal time for German politics.

On September 6, the eastern province of Saxony-Anhalt is holding elections, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is hoping to make gains, building in part on public weariness with the war.

The AfD has called for strengthening ties with Russia and has been critical of support for Ukraine. It is currently leading in public opinion polls ahead of the vote.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has made a surprise appearance at United States-hosted G20 finance talks in North Carolina, sparking frustration and dismay among European ministers and officials.

Siluanov’s appearance at the talks in Asheville on Monday marks the first time the minister, who was appointed in 2011, has attended a G20 meeting in person since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

He held a bilateral meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with Russia’s Ministry of Finance saying the two men discussed financial cooperation within the G20 framework.

A US official said the meeting focused on US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine.

Asked about the invitation to Siluanov, Trump told reporters: “We like getting along with everybody. One of the reasons I’m so successful, I get along with everybody.”

European officials, however, criticised the move.

Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski said he was unhappy to see Moscow represented, although he recognised the right of G20 hosts to invite guests.

“We do not trust Russia. They lie constantly, and you need to be really, really cautious while discussing with them,” ⁠he told the Reuters news agency, stressing that Russia was the aggressor in its conflict with Ukraine.

“So for me, it would be very difficult to have any kind of conversation with Russia.”

‘Troubling’ signal

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said the US’s decision to welcome Siluanov sent a “signal I find troubling”.

He said he told Siluanov during a plenary session that Moscow had to end the war and “that we clearly support Ukraine”.

He also said Europe was preparing a further package of sanctions against Russia and hoped for close cooperation with Washington on the measures.

European ministers and central bankers also opposed appearing with Siluanov in the traditional G20 “family photo”, European officials said. The photograph was ultimately taken without the Russian minister.

Klingbeil said European officials, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, had discussed Russia’s involvement on Sunday and agreed that maintaining an avenue for dialogue could allow them to deliver a frank message to Moscow.

“However, the mere fact that the Russian finance minister is back – after, I believe, four G20 meetings without Russian participation – indicates an attempt at normalisation, and that makes it all the more important for us to push back,” he said.

Siluanov’s appearance marked a sharp contrast with the G20 meeting in Washington, DC, in April 2022, when his virtual participation prompted officials from Canada, the United Kingdom, the US, and the European Central Bank to walk out.

White House defends talks with Russia

Asked about Siluanov’s attendance, White House spokesman Kush Desai told the AFP news agency that the Trump administration had been working with Russia to push for a deal that “would stop the endless bloodshed that the president has really condemned”.

“The president and the administration will never shy away from talking with the folks we need to talk to, to further that,” he said. “That’s what we’re working on here at the G20.”

Separately, Reuters and AFP, citing sources familiar with the Washington-Moscow talks, said Bessent had made clear that the US would not provide Russia with economic relief until war in Ukraine was over.

Trump has pushed Moscow and Kyiv to reach a deal to halt the fighting, but an initial 28-point plan that largely adhered to Russia’s demands was criticised by Ukraine and European governments.

The US, which currently holds the rotating G20 presidency, did not invite South Africa, last year’s G20 host, to the gathering. Poland, which is not a permanent G20 member, was invited.

Certain reporters from major US newsrooms, including The New York Times and Bloomberg News, were not granted credentials to cover the gathering.

The decision was condemned by the National Press Club, which said that “no administration should be allowed to handpick the press corps that scrutinizes it”.

The two-day meeting comes as global debt levels have reached a record of nearly $353 trillion and the global economy faces an energy shock triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran. The talks also come amid rising tensions over China’s large trade surplus and uncertainty over the effects of a surge in artificial intelligence investment.

Kyiv, Ukraine – The 2022 destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, whose construction cost $19bn, epitomised the failure of “change through trade”, Berlin’s policy of softening Moscow’s hardline leadership through mercantile ties, according to some analysts.

Pressurised gas was pumped from Yamal, Russia’s Arctic peninsula of deer herders and treeless tundra, to Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany’s Baltic region of chalk cliffs and medieval castles.

But on September 26, 2022, several underwater blasts created a kilometre-wide (0.6-mile) bubbling geyser of natural gas that became history’s worst release of methane and screeched the pipeline flows to a halt.

Dubbed an act of sabotage, the apparent operation has drawn the attention of Hollywood director Doug Liman, known for blockbusters such as The Bourne Identity and Mr & Mrs Smith.

Oscar-winning actors Sean Penn and Adrien Brody star in Liman’s upcoming drama, titled Snake Island, about Ukrainian divers who plunge into the Baltic’s blue waters from a sleek rented yacht to blow up the world’s longest undersea pipelines.

Back in the real world, one of the suspected divers, Volodymyr Zhuravlev, a 46-year-old father of three with more than two decades of free-diving experience, was a consultant on Liman’s film set in Croatia. He was arrested in the Croatian city of Pula on August 19 and is to be extradited to Germany.

Last year, another accused member of the sabotage team, Serhii Kuznetsov, was arrested in Italy and extradited to Germany.

The 49-year-old reportedly worked for Ukrainian intelligence and complained that he had been “abandoned by his country and president”.

Their arrests and upcoming trials have highlighted how the sabotage shocked Germany’s economy, overhauled its energy exports and consumption – and still affects ties between Berlin and Kyiv.

“The Nord Stream sabotage reinforced a key lesson from the 2022 energy crisis – Germany had become far too dependent on Russian fossil gas,” Claudia Kemfert, a professor with the Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, told Al Jazeera.

The pipelines were designed to deliver 110 billion cubic metres (3.9 trillion cubic ft) of natural gas a year and made Germany “captive to Russia”, United States President Donald Trump said in 2022.

Nord Stream 2 never became operational but did contain pressurised gas at the time of the explosions. Nord Stream 1 along with other Russian pipelines provided 55 percent of Germany’s natural gas.

It heated homes, generated energy and fuelled the economic pillars of Europe’s largest, export-oriented economy, the chemical and steelmaking industries.

The alleged sabotage “changed the debate on energy security fundamentally”, Kemfert said. “Today, security means reducing fossil import dependence through diversification, renewables, efficiency, grids and storage.”

The crisis also prompted a major, rapid expansion of infrastructure for liquefied natural gas. The latter proved to be a silver lining.

“The central lesson is clear: The less Germany depends on imported fossil fuels, the more resilient its economy and energy system become,” Kemfert said.

‘Politically sensitive’ questions

Meanwhile, the unresolved questions surrounding Nord Stream “remain politically sensitive” in Berlin-Kyiv ties, she said.

After Trump removed Washington from the political chessboard of the Russia-Ukraine war, Berlin became Kyiv’s largest and staunchest Western backer.

But Germany seems adamant about prosecuting the sabotage team.

“It’s a matter of principle for the German government, but it’s also a matter of the rule of law,” Cristian Vlas, an expert with ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data), an international think tank, told Al Jazeera.

And Ukraine’s most coveted post-war dream – integration into NATO and membership in the European Union – could be thwarted if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party comes to power.

AfD opposes military and financial aid to Ukraine, wants to block its EU and NATO membership, lift Western sanctions slapped on Moscow for invading Ukraine and resume Russian energy imports.

“We can certainly see the rejection of Ukraine’s application as one of the key points on AfD’s agenda,” Vlas said. “It rejects delivering further military support to Ukraine with the purported pretence that it extends the war.”

EU and NATO integration could be “further in time”, Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera, but the suspected act of sabotage still succeeded in severing the “umbilical cord” of the Berlin-Moscow alliance that hurt Ukraine economically and politically.

In 2008, Berlin and Paris blocked a NATO membership invitation to Ukraine, insisting it would “provoke” Russia.

After Nord Stream 1 was launched in 2011, Kyiv lost half of its annual $3bn in transit fees for Russian gas pumped westwards through Ukrainian pipelines.

Berlin also denied arms deliveries to Kyiv after Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022, Berlin admitted it was wrong about the “change through trade” approach to Moscow’s belligerence.

“We failed on many points,” German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the ZDF broadcaster in 2022. “It’s true that we should’ve taken the warnings of our Eastern European partners more seriously, particularly regarding the time after 2014.”

After the pipeline blasts, no country or group claimed responsibility, and pundits pointed fingers at Washington, which was opposed to the pipeline’s construction, and Moscow, which some believed would benefit from higher natural gas prices and chaos in Europe’s energy markets.

In turn, Moscow accused “Anglo-Saxon powers” of masterminding the explosions.

It took German prosecutors almost two years to zero in on the sabotage team and accuse Kyiv of organising the bombing.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly denied Kyiv’s involvement.

Germany “knows very well that Ukraine wasn’t behind the implementation and the very conception to carry out this particular operation”, he recently said at a news conference.

So far, the upcoming trials of Zhuravlev and Kuznetsov are not affecting aid from Berlin.

“Germany still has a huge credit of trust towards Ukraine, which, however, won’t prevent prosecutors from doing their job and finishing the case and courts from convicting average executioners,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University told Al Jazeera.

But aside from the pipeline blasts, tensions have been seen before between the German political establishment and Ukrainian politicians.

In 2022, Andrii Melnyk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Berlin at the time, lambasted Germany’s then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz for not providing enough lethal weapons, calling him an “offended liver sausage”.

Also in 2022, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s then-foreign minister, bristled at Berlin’s slow arms deliveries, calling them “disappointing signals”.

“For Ukraine’s future, things are bad because [Ukrainian] elites are confident that that’s the way to get things done and this style, not this individual case [with the sabotage], can cost them membership in the European Union,” Mitrokhin said.

“Germany remembers everything, and after [German Chancellor Friedrich] Merz, who is kind to Ukraine, somebody else who is not that kind could come to power,” he said.

At least 17 companies linked to illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank hold United Kingdom public-sector contracts worth more than 2.1 billion pounds ($2.85bn), an Al Jazeera investigation reveals.

The findings come as more than 140 UK Labour MPs are calling on the government to ban trade with illegal Israeli settlements, a move Prime Minister Andy Burnham is considering.

Our analysis of procurement records, company filings and corporate disclosures found that businesses named by the United Nations over their involvement in illegal Israeli settlements – and companies those businesses ultimately own or control as subsidiaries – have secured contracts across the British public sector, including in areas such as road maintenance, transport, emergency services and driving licensing.

“Evidence is growing that the UK may be in breach of its international obligations … by continuing to contract with entities identified by the UN as providing assistance of this sort,” Stephen Humphreys, professor of international law at the London School of Economics, told Al Jazeera.

Data compiled by public procurement analysts Tussell, and shared with Al Jazeera, shows the 17 companies and entities hold 125 public-sector contracts with a combined award value of 2.129 billion pounds ($2.89bn).

Companies owned by Motorola Solutions, the United States technology and communications giant, account for more than 1.7 billion pounds ($2.3bn) of the total – the vast majority through its British subsidiary Airwave Solutions. Other contracts we reviewed are held by firms within four other corporate groups including Heidelberg Materials, a German multinational building materials company; the French engineering group Egis; the Spanish train manufacturer CAF and Chinese conglomerate Fosun.

A report by the United Nations Human Rights Office identifies the five corporate groups as involved in business activities related to illegal Israeli settlements.

Heidelberg Materials’ Israeli subsidiary owns a quarry on Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank, while Motorola is embedded in the security infrastructure of illegal settlements. Egis and CAF are involved in Jerusalem’s expanding light-rail network – a project activists say entrenches Israel’s control by integrating settlements into the city while further fragmenting Palestinian neighbourhoods.

Fosun International, whose subsidiary Breas Medical receives UK public money, also owns the controversial Israeli cosmetics manufacturer Ahava, which operates in the Mitzpe Shalem illegal settlement in the occupied West Bank. Civil rights groups, including the Palestinian Solidarity Campaign in the UK, decry Ahava as a firm that is “complicit” in the theft of Palestinian land and livelihoods.

Meanwhile, violence is escalating in the occupied West Bank.

In July 2024, the International Court of Justice found Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory unlawful and said it must end “as rapidly as possible”. The court also placed obligations on other states “not to render aid or assistance in maintaining the situation created by Israel’s illegal presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory”.

That raises questions over Britain’s continued commercial relationships with the companies identified in Al Jazeera’s investigation, observers said.

‘UK government is propping up apartheid’

Humphreys believes that Britain may also be failing to meet its legal obligations by “failing to launch its own investigation into their activities, with a view to preventing them if necessary”.

The UK has also warned businesses against bidding for construction tenders in illegal settlements.

“Businesses should not consider bidding for construction tenders,” a government statement issued this month said, warning of “legal and reputational consequences” and the risk of involvement in “serious breaches of international law”.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Al Jazeera’s findings expose a contradiction between the UK’s stated position and its economic ties.

“Quite simply, the UK government is propping up apartheid,” Corbyn told Al Jazeera. “Every day, the UK deepens its complicity in Israel’s economy of occupation and, in turn, Israel’s economy of genocide.”

The Cabinet Office told Al Jazeera that individual public authorities make decisions to exclude suppliers case-by-case for each contract. It said public procurement in the UK should not be used to boycott suppliers linked to other countries unless formal UK sanctions, embargoes or restrictions are in place.

Here’s what we found about some of the companies involved in settlement trade:

Motorola Solutions: Tech embedded in illegal settlements

The UN identifies Motorola in connection with two settlement-related activities: the “supply of security services, equipment and materials to enterprises operating in settlements” and the “provision of services and utilities supporting the maintenance and existence of settlements, including transport”.

Al Jazeera contacted the Motorola Solutions group for comment but received no response.

It is the largest beneficiary of UK public money that we investigated.

Motorola’s subsidiaries are entrusted with providing communications equipment to the emergency services in the UK. The largest contract identified by Al Jazeera is held by Airwave Solutions, a Motorola subsidiary. The Home Office awarded Airwave an extension worth 1.562 billion pounds ($2.13bn) to provide the secure communications network used by police, fire and ambulance services across England, Scotland and Wales. Motorola Solutions UK separately holds contracts worth 123.9 million pounds ($170m), including a 36.5-million-pound ($49.8m) Ministry of Defence contract for Airwave radios, accessories and airtime.

Five companies now ultimately controlled by Motorola Solutions Inc – Airwave Solutions Ltd, Motorola Solutions UK Ltd, CRFS Ltd, 3TC Software Ltd and Noggin IT Ltd – hold 91 active UK public-sector contracts worth 1.726 billion pounds ($2.3bn), according to the latest Tussell data.

Motorola Solutions Inc and its Israeli subsidiary, Motorola Solutions Israel Ltd, were included when the UN Human Rights Office first published its database of businesses involved in specified settlement-related activities in 2020. Both remain in its latest version.

Official records provide a glimpse of how the company’s technology has been embedded in settlements.

Tenders from Mateh Binyamin Regional Council and the municipal corporation of Ariel, both illegal settlements, show Motorola command-and-control technology being used in security and surveillance infrastructure.

Motorola equipment has also been bought by the Israeli Civil Administration, the military body through which Israel administers civilian affairs in the occupied West Bank.

In 2005, the UN reported that Motorola supplied surveillance systems to settlements including Hebron, Karmei Tzur and Bracha.

Motorola’s relationship with the Israeli authorities continues today. An Israeli government procurement document obtained by Al Jazeera shows Motorola Solutions Israel was awarded a 25.5-million-shekel ($8.7m) contract in May 2026 to maintain approximately 19,000 police radios and provide encryption licences until April 2028.

Heidelberg Materials: A controversial quarry on occupied land

The UN has listed Heidelberg Materials over the commercial use of natural resources in occupied Palestinian territory.

In Britain, five Heidelberg Materials companies hold 25 public-sector contracts worth 184.79 million pounds ($252m). Almost all of that – 179.03 million pounds ($244m) – is held by Hanson Quarry Products Europe Ltd. Its contracts include 60 million pounds ($81.9m) from Westmorland and Furness Council for road surfacing and highway works between 2024 and 2027, and a 50-million-pound ($68.3m) surfacing maintenance contract with Somerset Council.

Its Israeli subsidiary, Hanson Israel, owns the Nahal Raba quarry, south of Qalqilya in the West Bank. The quarry sits on land belonging to the Palestinian villages of az-Zawiya and Rafat, according to Who Profits.

An official Civil Administration planning notice reviewed by Al Jazeera shows a proposal was approved to expand the site.

Who Profits, a group that researches links between the private sector and the economy in the Israeli-occupied territories, said the approval was granted on May 28, 2025.

Heidelberg told Al Jazeera that in 2023, Hanson Israel “ceased all activities at the Nahal Raba quarry and the associated asphalt plant and ready-mix concrete plant”, adding that only security personnel are present on site.

Egis: Selling transport infrastructure that supports settlements

French engineering group Egis provides another type of connection via transport infrastructure linking illegal Israeli settlements in occupied East Jerusalem with the rest of the city.

The UN lists Egis in connection with the “provision of services and utilities supporting the maintenance and existence of settlements, including transport”.

Egis’s own material shows that its involvement in Jerusalem’s expanding light-rail network continues today, with the company website advertising a job for an engineering expert based in Jerusalem on its light-rail projects.

Jerusalem Transportation Master Plan procurement documents from 2017 also identify Egis Rail as its general consultant, responsible for supervising and coordinating planning and design work on the Blue and Green lines.

Jerusalem’s light rail crosses into occupied East Jerusalem and links illegal Israeli settlements there with West Jerusalem. UN reports have described the railway as “additional infrastructure serving the illegal settlement network” and said it further isolates occupied East Jerusalem from the rest of the occupied West Bank.

Egis told Al Jazeera it “formally expressed its disagreement with this inclusion” in the UN database.

In Britain, five companies and entities controlled by Egis hold six public-sector contracts worth 133.60 million pounds ($182.4m). Almost the entire amount comes from a single contract, with the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency awarding Egis Projects UK Ltd a 133.23-million-pound ($181.9m) contract for enforcement services across Britain. Egis businesses also hold UK public contracts, including Galson Sciences, Helios Technology, Egis Transport Solutions and architecture practice WestonWilliamson+Partners.

CAF: Constructing project to continue into 2027

Spanish train manufacturer CAF is also involved in Jerusalem’s light-rail network. The company has disclosed that the 1.8-billion-euro ($2.10bn) Jerusalem project was awarded in 2019 to TransJerusalem J-Net Ltd, a firm owned 50 percent by CAF and 50 percent by Israeli construction business Shapir.

CAF said the project includes construction of the Green Line and extension of the existing Red Line, “which partially run through East Jerusalem”. The construction phase is expected to continue until 2027.

The UN identifies CAF over the “supply of equipment and materials facilitating the construction and the expansion of settlements” and the “use of natural resources, in particular water and land, for business purposes”.

Al Jazeera contacted CAF for comment but received no response.

Meanwhile, CAF has an extensive relationship with Britain’s public sector, including supplying trams for one of the country’s major urban networks. The West Midlands Combined Authority awarded CAF an 83.5-million-pound ($114m) contract for a new generation of trams for the West Midlands Metro. The contract runs until December 2027, according to Tussell data.

Fosun: Owner of a cosmetics company accused of excavating Dead Sea mud in occupied territory

Chinese conglomerate Fosun International is identified by the UN under the category covering the commercial use of natural resources, particularly water and land.

Its connection to the occupied West Bank centres on Israeli cosmetics manufacturer Ahava Dead Sea Laboratories. Fosun itself announced in April 2016 that it had agreed to acquire Ahava for 290 million shekels ($76.8m).

Fosun’s subsequent statutory reporting recorded Ahava as 99.46-percent owned.

A European Commission statement in 2018 said Ahava “does have operations in the settlement Mitzpeh Shalem, located in Occupied Territories”.

According to the Quaker-founded organisation, American Friends Service Committee (AFSC), repeated site visits confirmed that Ahava’s former factory in the illegal Mitzpe Shalem settlement remained operational as of 2026.

The group said Dead Sea mud was excavated in the occupied Palestinian territory and initially processed at the site before being transferred to Ein Gedi for further production.

In Britain, Breas Medical, which is ultimately owned through Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical by Fosun International, holds two public-sector contracts worth 1.29 million pounds ($1.76m). Fosun International is the controlling shareholder of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical.

Al Jazeera contacted Fosun for comment but received no response.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. military is experiencing a “beyond critical” shortage of advanced missile interceptors in Europe largely driven by President Trump’s war with Iran, a U.S. defense official in Europe and a NATO official told the Associated Press, raising concerns about vulnerabilities in NATO countries to a potential Russian attack.

The U.S. defense official said the most concerning shortfall involves Patriot missile interceptors, which can shoot down Russia’s high-speed ballistic missiles. The NATO official confirmed the low inventories of Patriots among American and NATO forces in Europe. Both spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.

In the event of a Russian ballistic missile assault on, for example, a military headquarters or power plant, NATO could be in a similar position to Patriot-starved Ukraine and be forced “to take punch after punch in the mouth,” the U.S. defense official said.

In Europe, the American military “definitely” does not have enough Patriots to stop any possible sustained ballistic missile attack and would have “very limited” capability to defend against a single ballistic missile strike or a stray Russian missile that goes off course, the U.S. official said.

It illustrates the cascading fallout from Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran, a conflict that reaches the six-month mark on Friday. U.S. missile stocks in Europe have been moved to the Middle East, where U.S. and Gulf allies have fired off significant numbers of interceptors, including Patriots, to thwart Iran’s drones and missiles. Some of those attacks have killed and wounded American troops.

Though a Russian ballistic missile attack against NATO countries is not imminently expected, CIA Director John Ratcliffe went to Moscow this week to warn Russia not to attack, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump played down the significance of the rare and secretive trip, saying it was “sort of semi-routine.”

European and NATO officials say Russia could be in a position to attack countries in the alliance by 2030. Patriot stockpiles are projected to rebound by then. In the meantime, Russia’s war in Ukraine could hinder its ability to carry out any missile attack on Europe as it would be a challenge for Moscow to fight an air war on two fronts.

U.S. Patriot transfers to Ukraine played a role in the drawdown, but the Iran war wasn’t expected

The Patriot missile shortage is most acutely felt in Ukraine, where officials are begging for more air defense support and where previous U.S. transfers also have drawn down some supply. Kyiv says only U.S.-made Patriots can stop Russia’s advanced ballistic missiles, which increasingly are getting through Ukrainian defenses, including as part of a barrage overnight into Thursday.

The U.S. supplied hundreds of Patriot missiles to Ukraine over the course of the 4 1/2-year-long conflict, but the Iran war was the tipping point for shrinking inventories, said Ed Arnold, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a military think tank in London.

The supply to Ukraine was planned for and reasonably measured, he said, whereas stocks in the Middle East have been unexpectedly and quickly drained, exposing supply chain constraints.

The U.S. military in Europe also is grappling with critical shortages of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, a medium-range ballistic missile designed to strike behind enemy lines, the two officials said. But the overall munitions picture in Europe is less dire than on air defenses alone because some European militaries have their own offensive missiles, such as the Taurus and Storm Shadow, which are both long-range air-launched bunker-busting missiles.

U.S. Army Col. Martin O’Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesperson, said it is “simply not the case” that the number of Patriot missiles in Europe is beyond critical.

NATO, he said, is able to “block punches” and has enough air defense munitions available to defend itself as well as to donate to Ukraine.

Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement Thursday that claims of U.S. munition shortages “are false.”

“We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the President’s choosing,” Parnell said. “Across multiple combatant commands, we have already executed successful operations while maintaining a deep, ready arsenal to defend our people and our interests.”

Europe has few alternatives while stocks are low

The dearth of Patriot interceptors in Europe would leave few alternatives for shooting down Russia’s more advanced ballistic missiles, which can be combined with swarms of inexpensive drones to overwhelm defenses, experts say.

Ukraine and some allies already use systems that can destroy slower-moving drones without expensive missiles. But ballistic missiles are a challenge because they dive steeply toward targets at more than five times the speed of sound, leaving little time to stop them.

The Patriot system tracks the missile, predicts its path and launches within minutes, all while carrying out complex calculations to ensure the interceptor finds its target. One Patriot battery can only cover a limited area: for example, a small military base but not a whole city.

One alternative could be France and Italy’s SAMP/T NG air defense system. France has promised to speed up the delivery of the system — the upgraded version of the current SAMP/T — to Ukraine, which the manufacturer says is better able to counter ballistics.

The new iteration, however, has not yet been battle tested and the current version of the SAMP/T has a smaller range than the Patriot.

While U.S. and European militaries have warships that can serve as mobile air defense, they may be too far from a target to protect it and could risk getting sunk.

Patriot stocks have plunged during the Iran war

Ukraine has received Patriots from American and European stockpiles since Russia’s 2022 invasion, with the U.S. providing about 600 of the interceptors during the Biden administration, said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel who is now senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

But the greatest expenditure has been during the Iran conflict, which has used up 65% of U.S. Patriots, amounting to roughly 1,500 of the nation’s 2,330 interceptors, CSIS says. About 600 missiles, including those destined for Europe, should be made this year, with a production goal of 2,000 Patriot missiles a year set for 2030, Cancian said.

NATO says Europe’s first Patriot missile production facility is expected to open in Germany in September, with deliveries possibly beginning early next year. The first deliveries should go to countries that have already placed orders, including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain, the U.S. defense official said.

But for now, that means some countries, such as Germany, have bought expensive Patriot systems but are in the “ridiculous” position of not having any ammunition to fire from them, said Arnold of the London think tank.

Germany’s defense ministry said it does not comment on stockpiles.

Russia also has limitations

Moscow likely cannot carry out a sustained air assault on a NATO target while it launches almost nightly attacks on Ukraine, Arnold said.

Ukraine’s recent strikes into Russia also have exposed weaknesses in Russia’s air defenses, which could prompt Putin to think twice about provoking a retaliatory attack.

“The uncomfortable truth is possibly the best air defense that we have is Russian constraints,” Arnold said.

Burrows and Finley write for the Associated Press. Burrows reported from London. AP writer Konstantin Toropin contributed to this report.