Germany

Talks will focus on the €1 billion daily deficit and rare earth export restrictions.

European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has arrived in Beijing for talks on the European Union’s (EU) growing trade deficit with China.

Sefcovic will meet Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on Thursday and Friday after months of discussions over the EU’s trade deficit of more than €1bn ($1.12bn) daily, as well as Chinese curbs on exports of rare earths and other critical minerals.

Meanwhile, Chinese companies are increasingly challenging Europe’s top car brands. China rejected the EU request for voluntary curbs on Chinese hybrid car exports as the two sides enter negotiations, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. The European Commission now hopes to get Beijing to accept a unilateral EU measure to cap hybrid imports instead, the outlet said, citing two diplomats briefed on the plan.

The two days of discussions come just as a majority of EU lawmakers called for a more assertive trade policy towards Beijing in a non-binding resolution on Wednesday. China vowed a “resolute response” to safeguard its industries if the European Union goes ahead with restrictions against Chinese companies or products, according to its commerce ministry.

Germany and France propose rapid EU measure

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, leaders of the bloc’s two biggest powers, on Tuesday urged the EU to prepare a “credible instrument” that could be quickly activated to strike back against countries that harm the bloc economically.

The new measure would not target any specific country. German officials said the EU needed a tool as powerful as the Section 301 tariffs imposed by the United States or China’s restrictions on critical-mineral exports.

The proposed weapon – to be discussed at an EU leaders’ summit next week – would give the European Commission the power to respond to a trade aggression within days.

China responded to the letter by urging Paris and Berlin to steer clear of “protectionist” measures.

“We hope that France and Germany, as major economies in the world, will uphold openness, cooperation and free trade,” the commerce ministry said in a statement.

“They should avoid going down the wrong path in the wrong way, only to ultimately suffer the consequences themselves.”

G20 finance leaders, except China’s, agreed in September to act against “non-market” distortions that exacerbate imbalances. Beijing says that hyping up issues such as economic imbalances and overcapacity is a form of protectionism designed to exert pressure on and restrict China.

Ongoing trade talks

EU and Chinese officials have been discussing trade imbalances since June. Sefcovic said he wanted “tangible results by October” as well as some form of commitment that can be put to EU leaders meeting in Brussels.

Trade relations with China top the summit’s agenda next week, as ballooning debt has prompted auditors to warn about the next seven-year EU budget and has spurred protests in France.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament last month that the trade imbalance had reached a tipping point and that Europe would use every tool at its disposal to rebalance the relationship.

Far-right and far-left parties gain ground in local elections as Merz’s approval rating sinks.

Chancellor ⁠Friedrich Merz has hit out at what he called political “extremism” in Germany after recent stinging defeats in local elections to far-right and far-left parties.

“This is a task for ⁠our society as ⁠a whole, and it is ⁠one I intend ⁠to play ⁠my part in,” he said on Wednesday at an ‌event in Berlin.

Merz said “extremism” was forcefully making its way into the country’s parliaments, a day after a member of the far-right Alternative for ‌Germany (AfD) was elected president of the state parliament in Saxony-Anhalt and the Left Party won out in Berlin’s state election last month.

“Anyone who casts their vote for ⁠the AfD is ⁠playing the extremists’ game and undermining credibility,” ⁠Merz said. “In ⁠any case, this is incompatible with the values of ‌my party, the CDU [Christian Democratic Union of Germany].”

Despite winning the vote in the September 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD fell three seats short of the absolute majority it had had sought. AfD lawmaker Tobias Rausch won the presidency of the parliament in the eastern German state Tuesday, backed by the left-populists in a secret ballot.

Founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic movement, the AfD won over voters with an increasingly hardline opposition to immigration after about a million people fled to Germany in 2015, many of them from war-torn Syria.

The party has since become a dominant political force in much of eastern Germany, especially among voters disillusioned with mainstream parties, though most traditional parties have pledged not to enter coalitions with the AfD.

Berlin election

Merz’s comments followed the far-left Left Party’s victory in the Berlin state election on September 20, in another defeat for the chancellor’s ruling Christian Democrats.

Lead ‌candidate Elif Eralp campaigned on the soaring cost of housing in the German capital and immediately promised to follow through with a pledge to nationalise private housing associations that account for a large share of the city’s housing stock.

The result, which roughly doubled the party’s previous score, could see her become the first mayor of Berlin from the Left Party, which grew out of the former East German communist party following the reunification of the country 36 years ago.

Eralp, the 45-year-old daughter of left-wing Turkish parents who fled a coup in 1980, said the increasingly difficult rental situation was the biggest social problem in the capital.

She promised to proceed with nationalising the housing associations she said drove property speculation, in accordance with a referendum from 2021 in which 58 percent of voters backed a proposal to promulgate the move.

While the AfD has attracted most attention, the ⁠Left Party has also benefitted from a general turn against the mainstream centre-left and centre-right parties.

Meanwhile, Merz has received a record low approval rating. Earlier this month, a survey by Germany’s public broadcaster ARD found that only one in 10 respondents were satisfied or very satisfied with his performance, the lowest figure for any chancellor since the survey began in 1997.

Another major election test will come in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, where voters are set to elect a new parliament in April.

August Hanning’s former chief of staff was also arrested on suspicion of ‘aiding and abetting attempted treason’.

Germany’s former foreign spy chief has been arrested on suspicion of espionage and treason, prosecutors have said.

August Hanning, 80, is under investigation for attempted treason and acting as an agent for a foreign intelligence service, the Office of the Federal Public Prosecutor General confirmed on Tuesday.

Hanning was president of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service between 1998 and 2005.

He was arrested in Bad Toelz-Wolfratshausen in southern Germany. His former chief of staff, partially identified as Manfred D, was arrested in Steinfurt in western Germany on suspicion of “aiding and abetting attempted treason and treasonous espionage”.

The prosecutor’s office said, “On one occasion, Hanning used classified intelligence provided by Manfred D to draft an analysis for an officer of a foreign intelligence service.”

Prosecutors said Manfred D also served as the chief of staff for Hanning’s successors between 2012 and 2026, and used his role to gain access to confidential information which he then passed on to Hanning “in exchange for remuneration”. Hanning then used the information in his private consulting work, prosecutors added.

“The current findings suggest that, over the years, Manfred D provided Hanning with approximately 2,000 documents, many of which contained classified information to be used exclusively by the federal intelligence service for internal purposes, particularly for executive intelligence briefings,” the statement said.

The statement did not reveal who the two men were suspected of spying for or which country the foreign agent worked for, adding that “it has yet to be determined if the material reached the intended recipient”.

German MP Marc Henrichmann told the AFP news agency that Germany “will not tolerate the betrayal of secrets”.

Henrichmann, who chairs the German parliament’s intelligence oversight committee, said, “Whoever allies themselves with the enemies of our liberal democracy will be found out.”

The premises of Manfred D and Hanning were being searched in several locations, including in the capital, Berlin.

Hannah Britt answered the millennial call to see 90s heartthrobs the Backstreet Boys at their 10-night residency in Dusseldorf, and found it to be the very best tonic ☆☆☆☆☆

The new trend among some of the world’s biggest artists is turning concert-going into a musical pilgrimage. Indeed, from Celine Dion’s 26 nights in Paris, to Harry Styles‘ 12 at London’s Wembley Stadium, for many fans a gig ticket now comes with a city break.

Music residencies, which used to be the preserve of Las Vegas mega hotels, have hit the mainstream, with more and more acts opting to stay put and, instead of touring around from place to place, have their fans come directly to them. Talking about his run of Together, Together shows, Harry Styles explained that playing in one place instead of embarking on a traditional world tour would improve the quality of the performance and better support his personal wellbeing.

And the idea is catching. After a run of sold out shows at The Sphere in Las Vegas, everyone’s favourite 90s heartthrobs the Backstreet Boys announced 10 nights at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf, a location chosen as it was the first place the I Want It That Way band cracked outside of America.

A homecoming, they told fans. Wear white. The millennial in me couldn’t resist. I used to kiss a picture of Nick Carter before retiring to my bunk bed each night aged eight. This was my chance to see him in the flesh. What’s more, compared to Vegas, Dusseldorf was practically next door. I simply had to go. And I’m so pleased I did.

A residency turns a pop concert into a cultural phenomenon. I’ll admit, other than knowing Dusseldorf was in Germany, I didn’t know anything about it. But I diligently booked my flight, enlisting my best friend Emily to join the fun.

I saw my first Backstreet Boys T-shirt on the plane. And a quick glance around showed me it was not the only one. Millennial white and baby blue adorned many of the passengers before they’d even left Manchester airport, and their number would only grow as we landed.

Once in the passport control queue in Dusseldorf, the singing began. And by the time Emily and I reached the city centre, we had found full blown boyband mania. Checking into our hotel, the chic and homely 25hours Hotel Das Tour which I’d found on Tripadvisor, and which was situated to the north of the city centre, life size cardboard cutouts of Nick, Kevin, Brian, AJ and Howie greeted us, along with a cocktail list inspired by the band, and a playlist to match.

In the foyer, an excited throng of diamanté-bedazzled women in their 30s buzzed excitedly. With partners and kids at home, a deliciously childlike giddiness replaced the adulthood we’d left behind. I found myself wishing I’d brought blue eyeshadow and butterfly clips.

Venturing out in search of sustenance, Düsseldorf’s bustling centre delivered mania still. A huge hopeful crowd was gathered outside of the band’s hotel, Breidenbacher. In the old town, the city’s bars blasted out the band’s biggest hits, from Larger Than Life to Incomplete.

White and blue balloons decorated the banks of the Rhine, and in the Marktplatz square a Backstreet Boys experience and merch shop drew huge queues. If you’d come to Dusseldorf for a quiet city break you’d have been most confused. But for those of us there for the show, it all added to the fun.

I found the mania endearing. It was exciting, intoxicating. It reminded me of Manchester before Oasis’ comeback shows in the city last year, only with less guitars and more earnest key changes. Even Emily, who arrived knowing one Backstreet Boys song in total, soon declared her desire for a tour T-shirt.

With some time to kill before the main event, we explored the Dusseldorf. Lunch was mussels and chips at the chic Robert restaurant on the riverbank, and views came courtesy of a boat trip down the Rhine, booked with ease on Get Your Guide.

We then partook in what appeared to be the city’s main occupation – drinking beer. Dusseldorf’s Altstadt (Old Town) is famously known as the “longest bar in the world” (längste Theke der Welt) because it packs around 260 to 300 bars, pubs, clubs, and traditional breweries into a compact area of just half a square km. It was brilliant fun, set of course to an ever-present soundtrack of our favourite five piece.

Producing bobbles, we put our hair in 90s bunches. Back home we’d have drawn stares. In Dusseldorf when the population was at a rough estimate 96% Backstreet Boys fans, we looked like we belonged. As we walked back to 25hr we smiled as we heard screaming coming from the Breidenbacher. The Boys had emerged from the hotel to say hello.

That evening, before heading to the arena we went to The Paris Bar on the 17th floor of 25hr. I had a Brian, Emily a Nick. Then we made our way to the show. A sea of denim, white combat trousers and glitter guided us there.

As the Backstreet Boys took the stage, the mania came to a head, but so did the joy. So began a setlist stuffed with nostalgia, dance routines, and all their biggest hits. It was like an injection of pure serotonin. The ticket may have come with a city break attached, but it turned out to be the very best therapy. And as everyone’s favourite key change came in the closing bars of Drowning, you could feel 60,000 millennials healing their inner child all at once.

*For tickets, see here; for more information about 25hr Hotel Das Tour, see here; for more information about Get Your Guide, see here; and for all things Tripadvisor, see here

Novak Djokovic to face Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals in Beijing after the Russian defeats Francisco Cerundolo.

Novak Djokovic has brushed aside ongoing injury-related struggles and produced a trademark comeback to defeat top seed Alexander Zverev 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 for a place in the China Open semifinals, extending his unbeaten record in the tournament.

Playing the ATP 500 event in Beijing for the first time since 2015, the six-time champion was pushed to the limit by reigning French Open and US Open champion Zverev, who delivered 19 aces in the match on Sunday.

Meeting for the first time in nearly 16 months, Djokovic struggled to contain the German’s power in the early stages as the 29-year-old Zverev claimed the opening set, but the Serb gradually worked his way into the match and refused to let his opponent pull away.

“I had a terrible start – two double faults at the beginning. It was quite cold, and honestly, I didn’t feel warmed up, but my fault,” Djokovic said.

“I gave him an early break, and then it was hard to come back in the first set.”

The contest was briefly interrupted by a moment of controversy when Zverev argued that the electronic advertising signage had gone dark during a rally and requested a video review after losing the point.

Replays showed a section of the signage had switched off although not as Zverev was missing the forehand. The chair umpire ordered the point to be replayed, prompting a frustrated exchange from Djokovic.

‘Held my nerves’

The turning point came late in the second set when Djokovic broke at 5-4 to level the match, shifting the momentum in his favour after a tightly contested battle.

With little separating the pair in the third, the Serbian struck again at 5-4 on the Zverev serve, securing the decisive break to seal the victory in two hours and 35 minutes.

“I was trying to be aggressive and come to the net and change up the pace, not giving the same pattern,” Djokovic said.

“I am just glad that I held my nerves, played good shots at important moments, 5-4 in the second and third.”

The pair had not met since Roland Garros in 2025, where Djokovic won in four sets, and Sunday’s encounter again highlighted the Serb’s ability to deliver under pressure despite a season disrupted by physical issues.

With the victory, Djokovic moved a step closer to a seventh China Open title and an elusive first trophy of the year while denying Zverev another opportunity to strengthen his bid for the world number one ranking.

Djokovic will face Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals after the Russian defeated Francisco Cerundolo 7-6(4), 6-3 earlier.

Rybakina withdraws from Wuhan after China Open exit

World number one Elena Rybakina withdrew from this month’s Wuhan Open due to a foot injury, tournament organisers said on Sunday, a day after the Kazakh suffered a shock defeat in her opening match at the China Open.

Rybakina, who lost to world number 118 Alina Charaeva in Beijing, said she would take time away from competition to recover.

“I’m very sorry to the fans who were looking forward to seeing me play,” Rybakina said in a story posted on the tournament’s Instagram account.

“I’ll take some time to rest and recover. Thank you for your understanding and continued support.”

The 27-year-old has been managing a lingering lower leg and foot problem that also forced her to retire from her Cincinnati quarterfinal against Iga Swiatek in August.

Despite the setback, Rybakina recovered in time for the US Open, where she claimed her third Grand Slam title, rose to world number one and became the first player to qualify for the season-ending WTA Finals.

Rybakina is next expected to compete this month in the Ningbo Open in China, where she will try to defend her title.

The Wuhan Open is scheduled to take place from October 12 to 18.

German chancellor visits Kyiv amid air raid sirens, pledging strong support as Russian strikes disrupt the capital.

Russia has struck a key bridge in Kyiv just as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in the Ukrainian capital to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The unannounced visit, marked by the sound of air sirens and explosions, came on Sunday to underscore Germany’s support for the nation at a time when Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities are increasing.

In a written statement, Merz said he “travelled to Kyiv today because Ukraine needs all our support in the coming weeks”.

“If Russia is not stopped, its war machine will sooner or later turn against us,” he said.

Merz and Zelenskyy met at the National Academy of Sciences, which was struck by a Russian drone on September 28.

Zelenskyy told Merz that Kyiv’s citizens are going through “terrible nights and days” due to the ongoing Russian attacks.

Merz was accompanied by his economy minister, as well as executives from several large German companies, such as Siemens Energy and Diehl Defence.

Ukraine and Germany are also expected to finalise a deal to produce drones and other weapons together that can travel more than 600 miles (965.6km) in an effort to strike deeper into Russia.

Germany has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters. In April, the two countries signed a military pact worth more than $4bn. On Sunday, a $1.1bn military aid package is set to be announced, alongside $394m to repair damage to Ukraine’s energy sector.

Merz’s visit comes a day after Russia warned foreign diplomats and nationals to leave the capital to avoid getting hurt.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence promised to intensify strikes on Ukraine after Zelenskyy said in an interview with the Reuters news agency that it is doubling down on targeting Russian oil refineries after several civilians were killed and wounded over the weekend.

The strike that hit the Northern Bridge over the Dnipro River on Sunday also damaged a road and the supply of hot water in the area, according to a social media statement from Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. It is the second bridge in the capital to be hit this weekend.

Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine is in its fifth year. Both sides have increased the number of drone and missile attacks on infrastructure, logistics and military sites in recent months.

Germany is moving ahead with plans to give its unusually large F125 frigates a medium-range air-defense capability, helping address one of the most conspicuous weaknesses of a four-ship class that has long attracted attention for having relatively little combat power for its size.

Diehl Defense and Germany’s Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) have signed a contract to adapt and develop the IRIS-T SLM surface-to-air missile system for operational use aboard the German Navy’s F125 frigates. Under the agreement, Diehl will build prototypes and conduct comprehensive test firings intended to validate the system’s integration and performance within the existing F125 architecture. Each frigate will be fitted with two new launchers, each capable of holding 16 missiles, for a total of 32.

“The aim is to make the system mission-capable on the German Navy’s F125 frigates,” Diehl said in today’s announcement. The company described the prototype construction and test-firing phase as necessary to ensure “the seamless integration and maximum performance” of IRIS-T SLM within the frigate’s existing architecture.

The program has moved notably quickly, reflecting the urgency of the requirement.

Germany began examining the feasibility of integrating IRIS-T SLM with the F125 in 2024, with BAAINBw and Diehl studying the technical risks and requirements of adapting the normally land-based system for shipboard use. That effort led to the development of a navalized demonstrator in 2025. In October of that year, the F125 frigate Baden-Württemberg took part in a German Navy Maritime Firing Exercise off Andøya, Norway, carrying an experimental anti-air warfare module based on IRIS-T SLM. Diehl says the module went from concept to firing in less than 10 months and met all established test and evaluation objectives.

The Bundeswehr subsequently reported that Baden-Württemberg fired three live IRIS-T SLM missiles during the exercise. The ship’s radar supplied target data to the missile system, demonstrating the basic integration between the F125’s sensors and the navalized air defense architecture.

The exercise established that the concept could work at sea; the contract signed now is intended to turn that demonstration into a qualified fleet capability.

The German parliament’s Budget Committee approved the adaptation effort on September 23, with the German Defense Ministry describing it as a means of expanding the F125’s self-defense capabilities in response to the current air threat. The ministry also pointed to IRIS-T SLM’s combat experience in Ukraine.

The effort needs to be seen in the context of why the F125 has been such a controversial warship in the first place.

As TWZ examined in 2017, the F125 is a roughly 7,200-ton, 490-foot warship with an unusually small core crew and a concept of operations centered on long-duration deployments, stabilization missions, crisis management, conflict prevention, and international intervention rather than high-end fleet combat. The class was designed to spend long periods away from Germany and operate with relatively modest manpower requirements.

But its armament does not remotely match the size and sophistication of the hull. A completed, the ships were equipped with eight RGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, a 127mm gun, remotely operated guns and, for close-quarters air defense, two RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile launchers. The F125 has no medium- or long-range surface-to-air missile capability and no organic sonar or dedicated anti-submarine warfare weapon system.

At the same time, the TRS-4D/NR radar and other sensors can see far beyond the engagement envelope of the close-in air-defense weapons, but there is little the ship itself can do with that information against an aircraft or incoming missile at medium range.

Nearly a decade later, IRIS-T SLM is emerging as an answer to at least part of that problem.

Even with IRIS-T SLM, the F125 is well short of being an air warfare destroyer. It also still lacks an organic anti-submarine warfare capability or the kind of large vertical-launch missile battery found on Germany’s F124 frigates.

However, it does fill a gap between the F125’s originl short-range defenses and the capabilities of other ships or aircraft operating around it.

IRIS-T SLM is designed as a medium-range surface-to-air system, with an engagement range of around 25 miles and an altitude envelope of approximately 65,000 feet. As shown in the 2025 demonstration, the F125’s radar can feed information directly into the missile system, exploiting the ship’s existing sensor capabilities.

IRIS-T SLM (Medium Range Ground-Based Air Defence)

Rather than rely heavily on escorts for protection against airborne threats outside the short range of RAM, an IRIS-T-equipped F125 could at least contribute to its own medium-range air defense. Recent operations in the Middle East hve underscored the importance of this in contested maritime environments.

It also gives the ships a more useful role in a task group. The threat environment has changed substantially since the F125’s original concept was drafted. Cruise missiles, drones, loitering munitions, and increasingly sophisticated aircraft mean that even ships operating away from a major naval war can face threats well beyond the range of their existing close-in defenses.

In November 2024, Germany confirmed that the F125 frigate Baden-Württemberg, returning from an Indo-Pacific deployment, would avoid the Red Sea and sail around Africa because of the Houthi missile and drone threat. The German Defense Ministry explicitly cited the ship’s limited air defense capability and its inability to provide an effective air-defense umbrella for itself or its accompanying replenishment ship.

Ironically, the F125’s large hull, extensive electrical power, sophisticated radar, substantial aviation facilities, long endurance and relatively spacious mission areas were always supposed to provide room for a flexible approach to future missions. Yet the class’s original weight and integration constraints made adding major weapons difficult, a concern TWZ also highlighted in 2017.

IRIS-T SLM offers Germany a way to add a meaningful capability without undertaking the much more invasive redesign associated with installing a conventional vertical-launch system. The 2025 demonstration used an AAW module mounted on the ship’s deck rather than a conventional VLS installation, and today’s program is focused on adapting the system to the F125 architecture.

Once IRIS-T SLM is installed, the F125 will still be an unusual frigate. It is enormous by the standards of its mission, optimized for endurance, and lacks some of the weapons traditionally associated with a high-end surface combatant. But it will bring more to a contested fight.

The program should give the class a credible medium-range air-defense role, and provide Germany with a way to get considerably more utility out of four ships whose original design philosophy was always somewhat controversial.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Security threats prompt US and Australia to suspend diplomatic operations in Brazil before pivotal election day.

The United States has suspended consular services in Brazil, prompting Australia to close its embassy in the Brazilian capital, two days before Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday.

In a statement released on Thursday, the US embassy said it would suspend consular services starting on Friday and advised American citizens seeking assistance not to visit its embassy, consulates or other diplomatic facilities.

The statement cited security concerns but gave no further detail on the nature of the threat or any link to the election.

The US State Department said it was working closely with Brazilian counterparts to address the security concerns, adding that embassies and consulates routinely issue alerts about local threats and developments.

Australia’s ambassador to Brazil, Sophie Davies, said on social media that the Australian embassy would also close on Friday, citing the US alert, and advised Australians to avoid US diplomatic facilities.

Brazil’s federal police said they carried out preventive search and seizure warrants in Sao Paulo and the Federal District, the administrative region surrounding the capital, Brasilia, as part of an investigation into suspected plans that could threaten US diplomatic facilities.

Police said the operation followed cooperation with foreign intelligence agencies, but that investigators had found no evidence corroborating the initially reported threat, nor identified any suspects linked to criminal organisations.

An investigation was continuing after the seizure of communications equipment, according to the police.

The closures came two days before the Brazilian presidential election, which pits incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking re-election, against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup.

If neither candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote on Sunday, a runoff will be held on October 25.

Edinho Silva, president of Lula’s Workers’ Party, called the closures “unprecedented”, saying: “It makes no sense at all. It’s one of Trump’s ways of trying to influence Brazilian public opinion.”

Lula’s allies have pointed to US tariffs and an effort by Washington to send officials to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity” as evidence of foreign interference.

Brazilian intelligence officials briefed French and German delegations in Brasilia this month on what they described as US and Russian interference in the race.

US President Donald Trump has publicly praised Flavio Bolsonaro, a close ally, without formally endorsing him, saying he is “watching that election very closely”.

Stuttgart, Germany – Minutes after the results of the first exit polls flashed across German screens, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) declared in a televised statement at the party’s headquarters that he was going nowhere.

“It’s a disaster,” he said of the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20. “What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience. I will muster them – as party chairman of the CDU and, above all, as chancellor of our country.”

But pressure on Merz is mounting.

On Thursday, a survey by Germany’s public broadcaster ARD found that only one in 10 respondents were satisfied or very satisfied with his work. That is the lowest figure for any chancellor since the survey began in 1997.

His party crashed out of the state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, failing to clear the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats – the first time this has happened since the Federal Republic of Germany was founded in 1949. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first with more than a third of the vote.

On the same day in Berlin’s state elections, the CDU suffered another major setback. It came second after The Left party, which won 25.7 percent of the vote. The Left now hopes to form a government in the capital although it will need coalition partners.

Just two weeks earlier, the CDU suffered another blow. The AfD won the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, receiving more than 40 percent of the vote, compared with 17 percent for the CDU.

No obvious successor

Merz could face a revolt within his own party, but removing him as chancellor would be considerably harder.

Under Germany’s Constitution, the Bundestag can replace a chancellor only by simultaneously electing a successor with an absolute majority.

Wolfgang Schroeder, a professor of political science at the University of Kassel, told Al Jazeera: “The CDU is in a situation where it can’t really get any further with Merz, but it also doesn’t know how things would work without him. There is no attractive replacement, so there is no alternative.”

A former chairman of the BlackRock investment company’s German supervisory board, Merz had long harboured ambitions of becoming chancellor but was sidelined by then-Chancellor and -CDU leader Angela Merkel in the early 2000s. He staged an unexpected comeback, finally taking office in May 2025.

At the helm, Merz has drawn criticism for remarks about the country’s “Stadtbild” (cityscape), widely interpreted as a suggestion that there were too many refugees and migrants on the streets. The debate has resurfaced in recent days with prominent CDU figures returning to the issue after the party’s poor election results.

The AfD’s surge is but one factor behind the decline of Germany’s long-dominant conservative party, which has produced six chancellors in its history.

The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, govern Germany in coalition with the Social Democratic  Party (SPD). The government is struggling amid the rising cost of living, deindustrialisation, crumbling infrastructure and a housing crisis in major cities.

Nils Diederich, a professor emeritus of political science at the Free University of Berlin and a former SPD member in the Bundestag, said Merz has failed to make a good impression but argued he is not the main reason for the CDU’s poor results.

“Overall, I see the coalition itself as the main problem,” he said. “The Social Democrats have worn themselves out in the coalition. They have lost their sense of direction and are putting the brakes on reforms. That, in turn, is dragging the CDU down with them.”

Schroeder told Al Jazeera: “It’s possible that the crisis surrounding the chancellor could develop into a fundamental crisis for the CDU and from there into a crisis for the coalition.”

The reform dilemma

In July, the German government announced a package of 34 measures, including reforms to pensions, taxation, bureaucracy and the labour market. Merz originally intended to push through his repeatedly promised reforms by the end of the year.

But the state elections have put the coalition parties under greater pressure to stake out their own positions.

To ease the burden on people in need of long-term care and to plug multibillion-euro deficits, the SPD is calling for a cap on care costs and for people with private health insurance to share the costs. The CDU firmly rejects both proposals on legal and financial grounds.

State premiers from both major parties and the SPD leadership want to retain the option of retiring without a pension reduction after 45 years of contributions, which they see as a reward for a lifetime of work. The conservative bloc’s business wing, however, insists that the provision be phased out.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of the SPD is planning new revenue measures to consolidate the budget but faces fierce resistance from CDU state premiers and conservative legislators determined to block any tax increases.

Schroeder warned that the coming months could be difficult.

“The CDU is caught in a dilemma. If Merz continues down the path of reforms that place a burden on society, the likelihood of cooperative governance with the SPD will diminish further. If he goes along with the course the SPD is proposing, pressure within the party will increase.”

Diederich said: “If the reforms fall through, then either Merz or the Social Democrats would have to act and let the coalition collapse.”

The next major election test will come in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, where voters elect a new parliament in April.

​Winning tip: History, buns and Italianate porticoes in Münster

In an often overlooked corner of Germany, near the Dutch border, Münster is an absolute gem. Covered porticos will convince you you’re in northern Italy, gothic churches will remind you you’re in Mitteleuropa and the buns from Zeit für Brot will insist you’re in heaven. Nature-lovers can take in the Botanical Gardens and relax by the Münstersche Aa river. Those of a historical bent can peek into the room where the Treaty of Westphalia was signed in 1648 and mull the report card of nation states in the nearly 400 years since. But really, it’s a great place just to drop-anchor and lose a few days.
Jeremy

Germany’s highest railway bridge, near Düsseldorf

In the verdant countryside near Düsseldorf, the 129-year-old Müngsten Bridge, the country’s highest railway bridge, rises 107 metres above the River Wupper. The impressive iron and steel structure is billed as Germany’s answer to the Eiffel Tower (yes, really!) and if you’ve got a head for heights, you can don a harness and make the exhilarating climb to the highest point. You’ll be rewarded with incredible views across the valley, especially if you steel yourself (!) for the nerve-racking walk across the narrow beam that spans the top of the bridge. Eat your heart out, Sydney Harbour Bridge.
Bex

A wild North Sea island made for cycling

Sylt is more than a North Sea island to us. My German grandmother met my British army grandfather, and Sylt became my mother’s childhood island. It feels made for cycling, with peaceful paths winding between grassy dunes, sweeping beaches and little villages. Spend the day riding, watching the surfers and eating warm Nutella crepes by the sea, before settling into a traditional hooded Strandkorb (hooded beach chair) to listen to the waves. Bike hire costs €8-€10 per day. It is wild, windswept and magical, somewhere our family history becomes real every time we return.
Fay

Tour the country for a month for €63

Get the Deutschlandticket! An entire month of public transport for €63 – buses, trains, trams, ferries … The only thing that isn’t included is faster long-distance trains, but you can figure out how to get from A to B using the Deutsche Bahn website, which has a special “Deutschlandticket only” filter; the need to change trains means you’ll end up discovering places you wouldn’t otherwise visit. It’s worth it just for a week, or, if you do want to travel long distances quickly, just for inner-city transport. Use the German public transport app Mopla to buy one at any time.
Joseph

Cologne’s world-class cocktails bars

The Trump administration has warned France and Germany to release emergency diesel reserves to help lower global fuel prices or risk facing a potential US ban on diesel exports, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The warning represents a sharp escalation in Washington’s pressure on European allies as President Donald Trump looks for ways to increase fuel supplies and bring down prices ahead of the November midterm elections.

US officials have become increasingly frustrated with France and Germany, which Washington believes have not fully acted on earlier commitments to release emergency oil and petroleum reserves as global fuel markets face mounting disruptions.

“It is in Europe’s best interest to work with the United States as we pursue multiple pathways to boost the supply of refined products and lower costs for consumers,” a US official told Reuters.

A second source familiar with the discussions said the United States had asked the European Union to release 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months.

The demand highlights the growing importance of Europe’s fuel reserves at a time when disruptions to major energy-producing regions are tightening global supplies.

Washington Raises Pressure on Europe

The US administration’s warning comes as Trump considers restricting US diesel exports as part of a broader effort to increase domestic supplies and reduce fuel prices for American consumers.

The approach creates a difficult balance for Washington. Limiting exports could increase the amount of diesel available inside the United States, potentially putting downward pressure on domestic prices. But it could simultaneously reduce supplies available to international markets, particularly Europe, which has become increasingly dependent on imported refined fuels.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Wednesday that the administration expected European countries to announce additional diesel supplies soon.

“We’ve lost some diesel exports from the Middle East, although we’re restoring those, and we’ve lost diesel exports from China,” Wright told reporters.

The disruptions have exposed the vulnerability of global refined fuel markets to geopolitical conflicts and changes in trade flows.

Germany’s economy ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while France’s energy ministry declined to comment.

The White House’s pressure also appears to have become a broader diplomatic issue among Western allies.

An official at the French presidency said Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron did not discuss the issue when they met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York last week.

Macron, however, plans to convene a video conference of G7 leaders to address rising fuel prices and the availability of refined petroleum products.

The discussions are expected to include coordination over the release of emergency reserves in cooperation with the International Energy Agency.

Why Europe Matters to the Fuel Market

Europe’s position in the global fuel market has changed substantially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

European countries previously relied heavily on Russian crude oil and refined petroleum products. The subsequent sanctions and restrictions on Russian energy imports forced European governments and companies to find alternative suppliers.

The result has been greater dependence on imports from countries including the United States and suppliers in the Middle East and Asia.

That dependence has become more significant as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has disrupted energy flows from the Middle East.

The loss or reduction of refined fuel exports from major suppliers can quickly affect diesel markets because refining capacity cannot always be shifted between regions immediately.

Diesel is particularly important because it powers much of Europe’s commercial transport, heavy industry, agriculture and logistics sectors. Sustained shortages can therefore affect the broader economy rather than simply increasing prices at fuel stations.

The US Faces Its Own Fuel Dilemma

For Trump, the issue also has a strong domestic political dimension.

Fuel prices are highly visible to American consumers, making gasoline and diesel costs politically sensitive ahead of the November midterm elections.

The administration is therefore examining multiple ways to increase available supplies and reduce costs.

But a potential US diesel export ban could have consequences beyond America’s borders.

The United States has become an important supplier of refined petroleum products to international markets. Restricting those exports could tighten supplies elsewhere, potentially pushing international prices higher even if American prices fall.

That creates a difficult policy tradeoff for Washington.

The administration wants to protect US consumers from high fuel costs while maintaining sufficient supply in global markets. European governments, meanwhile, face pressure to use their own emergency reserves even as they seek to maintain energy security following the loss of Russian supplies.

Europe Seeks a Coordinated Response

France appears to be pursuing a broader G7 response rather than treating the issue as a bilateral dispute with Washington.

Macron’s planned meeting would allow the world’s major industrial economies to discuss the availability of refined products and potentially coordinate emergency stock releases through the International Energy Agency.

Such coordination could help prevent individual countries from taking measures that unintentionally worsen shortages elsewhere.

But disagreements over how much fuel should be released, when reserves should be used and who should bear the cost could complicate the process.

Emergency reserves are designed primarily to protect countries against severe supply disruptions. Releasing large quantities can provide temporary relief, but it also reduces the buffer available if another disruption occurs.

That makes Europe’s response particularly consequential at a time when energy markets remain exposed to geopolitical shocks.

A New Test for Transatlantic Energy Relations

The dispute illustrates how the global energy system has become increasingly intertwined with broader geopolitical and trade relationships.

Europe needs reliable fuel supplies after cutting its dependence on Russian energy, while the United States is attempting to use its position as a major energy producer and exporter to address domestic price pressures.

Trump’s warning to France and Germany adds another layer to that relationship by linking European reserve policy to continued access to US diesel exports.

Whether Europe ultimately releases the amount of diesel Washington has requested will depend on national assessments of market conditions, domestic energy security and the risks of further supply disruptions.

For now, the dispute signals that the energy consequences of conflicts in the Middle East are reaching far beyond the region itself.

As the United States and its European allies try to contain fuel prices, they face a common problem but increasingly different pressures over how the burden of stabilising global energy markets should be shared.

With information from Reuters.

The pilot of a U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon assigned to the 52nd Fighter Wing safely ejected before the aircraft crashed at Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany, according to the wing.

The pilot is still receiving medical treatment, the wing said in a statement. Emergency response teams are still on the scene. The cause of the incident, which took place about 2:30 p.m. local time, is still under investigation and additional details will be released when available.

The crash happened as the jet was on approach to land at the installation, located in the western German region of Rhineland-Palatinate, according to the New York Post.  

“Following a plane crash in the vicinity of U.S. Air Base Spangdahlem, fire and emergency response teams from the Eifel District of Bitburg-Pruem were dispatched to the scene,” The Associated Press reported, citing the district. 

Images emerged on social media showing smoke rising in the distance.

The F-16 crash at Spangdahlem was the second mishap in a week for USAF F-16s. On Sept. 17, an F-16 from the 149th Fighter Wing at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland in Texas crashed in northern Michigan. The pilot in that incident also ejected.

According to air traffic control (ATC) audio, the pilot’s wingman said at the time of the Michigan crash, “we have a possible mayday. My wingman may have taken a bird.” TWZ cannot independently confirm what caused the crash. The audio continues and offers a fairly dramatic and raw look at how the incident occurred over the air waves.

Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy denounces ‘horrific crime’ after 31-year-old attacks clergy and worshippers in border town.

One person was killed and four others injured when a man armed with a knife attacked clergy and worshippers at a Catholic monastery in southern Poland.

Police said the 31-year-old attacker, a Ukrainian national, went on a stabbing spree at the 17th-century Benedictine abbey in Jaroslaw, some 30km (19 miles) from the border with Ukraine, on Thursday morning.

The suspect, who had entered Poland from Germany earlier in the day, reportedly grabbed a knife from the abbey’s kitchen and attacked four men and one woman, including a priest in a confessional, police said.

“Three of the victims are clergy members and two are laypeople; one person has died,” said prosecutor Bozena Harasz-Wołoszyn. Two others were in “critical, life-threatening condition”.

Polish media identified the man who died as a priest. Police did not immediately confirm the identity of the deceased.

Prosecutors said the attacker was headed for a nearby border crossing back into Ukraine but instead went to the abbey.

The motive remains unclear, and doctors will assess whether he was under the influence of alcohol, Harasz-Wołoszyn said.

Leaders respond

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the “murderer” would be “punished with the full severity of Polish law”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the attack a “horrific crime”.

“The perpetrator of this evil must bear full responsibility in accordance with the law … We are shaken by this evil. Justice must be done.”

The mayor of Jaroslaw, Marcin Nazarewicz, declared a period of mourning until the end of the week.

Stabbings, particularly at religious sites, are extremely rare in Poland, one of Europe’s most Catholic countries.

This city is a favourite among trendy, wealthy people – but I don’t see the charm.

I have been lucky enough to see a fair amount of the world not only in my role as a travel reporter, but also in my own time. However, after spending a long weekend in this popular European city I have finally discovered a place I will never return to.

Berlin is beloved by trendy east Londoners who pretend they don’t have a double barrelled surname and a trust fund. The city is full of even trendier Berliners who pretend they don’t have any interest in being cool, whilst still trying as hard as possible to appear so.

I have visited before and found the city grey, utilitarian, dirty and ugly. At the time I had a friend living there who told me the city would “eat you alive” if you let it – and I believed him.

I spent a weekend there and over those two days I stood in human faeces whilst walking through a park, watched people urinate in the U-Bahn, saw one man vomit and another man sit in it.

I was hounded by wasps for every hour of the day, and shady characters for every hour of the night.

I didn’t get eaten alive, but by the time I flew out of the city morale was low. I spent the next seven years vowing I would never return – but a twist of circumstance saw me packing my bags last Friday to spend another long weekend in Berlin.

My friends were visiting Europe from New Zealand, and the only weekend I had free time to see them was the weekend they were in Berlin, so I decided I’d give it another go. I was hoping my initial impression of the city had been wrong, and that my return trip would show me the real side of the city

Whether real or not, the side I saw was not to my liking.

The city was still as utilitarian and grey as I remembered. We stayed in Neukölln, a trendy artistic neighbourhood with plenty of coffee shops, späti (like off-licences but with seats outside to sit and enjoy a beer) and vintage shops. These are all my favourite things, but Berlin’s version of them was tinted with the greasy pallid feeling you get after a night out that has gone on several hours too long.

My least favourite thing about Berlin however, is the wasps. In late summer, they have reached peak population and ruin the city’s outdoor spaces. Sitting outside to enjoy a brunch, coffee or a pint becomes a feat of endurance as these angry insects swarm you, fall inside your pints, try to crawl inside your nose and mouth and generally make a nuisance of themselves. It’s also illegal to kill them, as they are protected under the Wildlife Act.

Over the three days I was there I had two of them die in my beer, and four of them make my £7 donut inedible.

My Berlin weekend was not all bad. I did find an amazing coffee shop near our accommodation called Leuchtstoff Kaffeebar. The coffee was delicious – perhaps the best I’ve had since I left New Zealand two years ago, and I enjoyed a Bircher Muesli that set me up perfectly for my day of wandering the city.

The café also serves pastries, and had a very cool mezzanine that you could climb up to via a ladder.

I also visited the Jewish Museum in Kreuzberg. Admission is free, and the building is truly something to behold. It uses architecture and art installations to create a feeling of absence and highlight the huge loss felt by the community as a result of the millions murdered during the Holocaust.

A large section of the building is below ground, with multi-media installations and plenty of information about the history of Judaism and their persecution in Germany. It was a sombre afternoon, but definitely worth a visit if you are in the city,

Despite finding a few things I liked about Berlin, overall my sense of the city was that it is without whimsy. I won’t say it’s soulless – but the soul it possesses is not one I care to find out more about.

Infantino proposed an independent review of FIFA’s decision-making process amid criticism to his leadership.

A letter from FIFA President Gianni Infantino this week to ⁠all 211 members, offering to discuss reforms within world football’s governing body – amid an ongoing crisis over his failed plan to sell a stake in the World Cup – is a ⁠mere ploy to get himself re-elected, Germany’s Football Association (DFB) President Bernd Neuendorf has said.

In Monday’s letter seen by the Reuters news agency, Infantino proposed an independent review of FIFA’s decision-making process, in a move that could help him regain support after the withdrawal of his controversial private investment plan.

Striking a ‌conciliatory tone, he also said he would propose consultations with confederations, member associations and other stakeholders about strengthening FIFA’s decision-making.

Infantino faced a fierce backlash over his proposal to sell a 20 percent stake in FIFA’s commercial rights, including the World Cup, to private investors.

The plan was abandoned in July after strong opposition and boycott threats, with UEFA, the Asian Football Confederation and CONCACAF calling for changes to FIFA’s leadership.

They said there had been no consultation with any continental confederation at ⁠any stage, with Infantino acting alone. UEFA has said a change in leadership was now necessary, with the European body having lost faith in the current president.

“I regard Gianni Infantino’s letter as a transparent ploy to secure ⁠his re-election next year,” said DFB President Neuendorf on Tuesday. “Fundamentally, FIFA now seems to have recognised that changes are essential.

“However, Gianni Infantino ⁠is definitely not the right person to lead a reform ⁠process. He has squandered all credibility.”

Neuendorf is also a member of the FIFA Council, the organisation’s main decision-making body.

Infantino said in the letter that member associations’ positions on proposals or governance matters would not affect their ‌treatment by FIFA, whose development and solidarity programmes would continue under existing rules.

The Swiss is up for re-election in March next year, with his opponents struggling to find a candidate ‌to ‌challenge the president. Sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters this month that he still had enough votes to win, prompting opponents to focus on curbing his powers.

Countries including Germany, South Africa and Canada suggest international institution to set and enforce standards.

Twenty countries and the European Union have issued a call for international cooperation to ensure AI remains under human control, including the potential creation of a global oversight body to set and enforce standards.

The countries, including Germany, South Africa, Canada, Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore, issued the joint statement on Monday as global leaders prepare to discuss the risks posed by rapidly advancing AI at the annual gathering of the United Nations General Assembly.

The declaration, released by the office of Finnish President Alexander Stubb, calls on governments and industry to act immediately to ensure that AI is developed in line with international law and remains under “human direction, oversight and control”.

“To realise AI’s potential, industry, governments and society must act now,” the statement says.

“We must address these risks and strengthen oversight – without widening the gap between countries in access to the benefits of AI.”

The declaration urges countries to develop and coordinate “common standards”, share reports of serious safety incidents, and explore the establishment of an international institution to “set standards, enable verification, and convene states when capability thresholds are crossed”.

Signatories include German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Kenyan President William Ruto, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

The United States and China, the world’s two leading AI powers, did not join the statement, which remains “open for endorsement” by other countries.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to discuss AI when they meet at the White House on Thursday for their third face-to-face summit in less than a year.

Washington and Beijing, which are in a race to dominate cutting-edge technologies, have both rebuffed calls to slow down AI development to ensure greater safety.

Other AI players not among the signatories include India, South Korea, Japan, the UK and France.

The declaration comes as the AI sector is engaged in a heated debate about safety following calls for a slowdown in development by top industry leaders.

In an essay earlier this month, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called on firms to “slow the pace” of development to mitigate risks, a proposal that was swiftly endorsed by rivals including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

Amodei’s call followed a series of cases of AI models engaging in unsanctioned malign activity, including an incident in July in which AI agents being tested by OpenAI hacked the AI start-up Hugging Face.

In the latest intervention by industry on Monday, OpenAI said the US should lead an international effort to develop technical standards for advanced AI.

“The United States is well positioned to lead because its AI industry is at the technical frontier, and it still stands in a privileged global network position in critical areas such as finance, trade, defense, technology, and information systems,” the San Francisco-based AI giant said in a blog post.

“Leading now will determine whether the United States shapes the global AI framework or watches a fragmented, uneven, and conflict-ridden system take hold around it.”

The UN-backed Independent International Scientific Panel on AI, which examined the Hugging Face incident, on Monday also added its voice to calls for new guardrails, saying the cyberattack had exposed the “unravelling” of existing safeguards.

Published on
21/09/2026 – 11:46 GMT+2

Volkswagen, Europe’s largest automaker, is no longer among the eurozone’s blue chips.

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Index provider Stoxx confirmed the change in its annual review at the start of September, and it came into force before trading began on Monday, with Finnish telecoms group Nokia returning to the index and French utility Engie joining.

Dutch information-services group Wolters Kluwer was also dropped.

The removal is mechanical rather than a judgement, as the index is weighted by free-float market value, and Volkswagen’s shrinking valuation no longer cleared the threshold.

However, the consequences are real, as funds that track the benchmark must now sell their Volkswagen holdings, adding to pressure on a stock already under strain. Stellantis suffered the same fate last year.

Volkswagen shares have fallen almost 30% since the start of the year and are down over 6% since last Monday’s open, trading at roughly €76 at the time of writing.

A profit warning to match

The timing could hardly have been worse.

On Friday, Volkswagen flagged around €10 billion in one-off charges and cut its operating margin forecast for 2026 to no more than 1%, down from a previous range of 4% to 5.5%. Analysts had expected 4.1%.

More than €6 billion of the charges stem from a writedown at Porsche, in which Volkswagen holds a 75.4% stake, after the sports car maker lowered its medium-term expectations.

Porsche has been hit hard by American tariffs and weak Chinese demand for foreign luxury brands, and managed a margin of just 1.1% last year.

A further €2 billion or more covers expanded early retirement schemes, impairments in China and the planned sale of Volkswagen Osnabrück GmbH, a wholly owned subsidiary and automotive manufacturing plant located in the northwest German city of Osnabrück.

The company warned of “further deterioration in the market environment, especially in China, as well as an accelerated shift in demand in favour of battery-electric vehicles.”

The warning came two weeks after it agreed its largest-ever restructuring, doubling planned job cuts to 100,000 and halving its model line-up.

However, not everyone reads the numbers as a collapse.

Stripping out the one-off items, Volkswagen puts its underlying margin at around 4%, and it kept its cash flow and liquidity forecasts unchanged.

Deutsche Bank, which rates the shares a buy with a €115 price target, said it believes “the headline significantly overstates the deterioration in the underlying business.”

The bank does not expect the pain to end there as it wrote that “additional restructuring charges simply confirm that the transformation process is very expensive and complex […] we expect more to follow over the coming months.”

Volkswagen’s third-quarter results are due on 29 October.

The NATO Response Force (NRF) and EU Battlegroups have demonstrated that placing multinational forces on standby does not automatically make them immediately operational. German-Dutch military integration, in contrast, has generated a different outcome since cooperation was internalized within permanent command structures, units, training, and capability planning before a crisis occurred.

Such a comparison is becoming increasingly relevant to Northeast Asia. A Taiwan contingency could absorb American military assets at the very moment when North Korea embarks upon a serious provocation towards South Korea. Continued US commitments in Europe and the Middle East could further complicate the allocation of finite resources.

Why Standby Forces Encountered Problems

The NRF was established after the 2002 Prague Summit as a rapidly deployable multinational joint force of roughly 25,000 troops. Yet the NRF was heavily dependent on the member countries assigning their respective forces to particular rotations, while these governments had the final say over whether the forces could ultimately be employed. During the Afghanistan and Iraq wars—when operational demand was high—each government had strong disincentives in introducing scarce high-readiness units and specialized enablers to NRF rotational deployment.

This created a gap between designated readiness and actual availability. Strategic transportation, logistics, specialized support units, and communication capacity could still be subject to competing national demands. Eventually, in 2024, NATO replaced the NRF with the NATO Force Model, which emphasized a substantially larger pool of high-readiness forces that is closely aligned with specific defense plans.

Meanwhile, the EU Battlegroup was faced with an even clearer problem. Although the multinational battlegroups had been maintained on rotational standby since 2007, they had never been deployed. While acknowledging that the battlegroups enhanced interoperability and military transformation, the European Parliament attributed the shortcoming largely to insufficient political will, difficulties in decision-making, implementation problems, and the financing arrangements.

What Germany and the Netherlands Did Differently

German-Dutch cooperation developed according to a different institutional logic. Although the 1st German-Netherlands Corps was created in Münster in 1995, the integration later expanded deep into both militaries’ force structures. The Dutch 11th Airmobile Brigade was incorporated into the German Division Schnelle Kräfte (DSK) in 2014, while the Dutch 43rd Mechanized Brigade was integrated into Germany’s 1st Panzer Division in 2016, and the Dutch 13th Light Armoured Brigade joined Germany’s 10th Panzer Division in 2023.

The relationship was extended below the brigade level. Germany’s Panzerbataillon 414 is operated under the Dutch 43rd Mechanized Brigade, and Dutch personnel operate Germany’s Leopard 2A6MA2 tanks while serving within the battalion. Moreover, German officers serve in Dutch command headquarters and vice versa, turning multinational command into a routine organizational reality instead of a stopgap measure that is only activated during major exercises.

Needless to say, such an arrangement does not eliminate national sovereignty. Both Germany and the Netherlands preserve the political prerogative over whether and where their forces are deployed. Meanwhile, the benefits of integration would become observable once a crisis necessitates the deployment. Staff are already well-versed in each other’s procedures, and units have repeatedly conducted joint exercises, while command and logistics relations do not need to be newly constructed during mobilization.

The distinctions were visibly observable during training. For example, approximately 7,000 German and Dutch personnel participated in the 2026 Fighter Lion—the largest military exercise conducted by the Netherlands in two decades—ten years after the Dutch 43rd Mechanized Brigade was integrated into Germany’s 1st Panzer Division. These types of exercises strengthen existing command relations rather than creating temporary interoperability for a single event.

What Japan and South Korea Can Apply

It is quite obvious that Japan and South Korea cannot replicate the German-Dutch model. Neither country has a formal mutual defense pact nor a NATO-style integrated command structure. Therefore, the directly applicable lessons are more limited. Nonetheless, selected operational relationships can and should be institutionalized before multiple simultaneous contingencies make such coordination necessary.

The practical first step could be a standing bilateral adjustment mechanism that links Japan’s Joint Operations Command (JJOC) with relevant South Korean joint headquarters. Instead of exercising command authority, the mechanism could maintain procedures for intelligence exchange, deconfliction in the air and at sea, movement of US reinforcements, logistics coordination, and the use of Japanese facilities that support a Korean contingency. This would be especially crucial when Japan has to assist US operations related to Taiwan while installations across Japan—including Yokota, Yokosuka, Sasebo, Iwakuni, and other United Nations Command (UNC)-Rear facilities—play a pivotal role in US reinforcement to the Korean Peninsula in accordance with Operational Plan (OPLAN) 5055.

Under this mechanism, small-scale functional cells could concentrate on specific missions. Missile warning would be the most obvious starting point since the United States, Japan, and South Korea have conducted North Korean missile-warning data-sharing since December 2023. Additional cells could treat maritime domain awareness (MDA), anti-submarine warfare (ASW), cyber defense, transportation, medical evacuation, and logistics.

The exchange of officers should accompany the aforementioned measures. Japanese officers could participate in South Korean command posts, while South Korean officers could join Japanese operational staff who deal with naval operations, air defense, logistics, or reinforcement coordination. The goal is to get familiar with each country’s procedures, communications, command relations, and other miscellaneous constraints before wartime pressure markedly shortens the timeframe for decision-making.

Exercise Scarcity Rather Than Ideal Conditions

The most notable changes should be related to exercise design. Trilateral exercises should not be premised on the assumption that the full inventory of United States support capabilities will always be available. A more pessimistic scenario would begin with a Taiwan scenario that is already consuming a substantial amount of US assets—including its ISR capacity, strategic transportation, and precision-guided munitions—when North Korea embarks upon a serious horizontal or vertical military escalation on the Korean Peninsula.

In this particular situation, elaborated by the Atlantic Council report, South Korean military planners should determine which missions could be conducted independently and which can be addressed bilaterally. South Korea may assume greater responsibility for ISR, missile defense, logistics, and conventional firepower on the Korean Peninsula—yet this would be affected by the tempo of wartime operational control (OPCON) transition—while Japan could take on additional maritime surveillance, ASW, sea lines of communication (SLOC) protection, base defense, and logistics. The primary aim is not to divide the Taiwan and Korean Peninsula theaters between Seoul and Tokyo but to identify how both countries could most effectively conduct missions that complement US military operations across the two regions.

Logistics should be placed at the center of these exercises. A dual contingency could impose on the Japanese government the need to support both US operations on Taiwan and USFJ reinforcement to the Korean Peninsula, which inevitably involves Japanese ports and airfields. It could cause competition for fuel, maintenance, transportation, ammunition depots, runways, and port capacity. Thus, Tokyo and Seoul should develop procedures concerning reciprocal servicing, immediate repair, medical support, transportation, and selected supplies before the bottleneck transmogrifies into wartime problems.

Functional Integration Without a Bilateral Alliance

The German-Dutch case illustrates that political authority is not necessarily the same thing as operational preparedness. A government can maintain full authority over whether its forces enter conflicts and can also prepare in advance to cooperate effectively if that decision is made. These distinctions are highly relevant to Japan and South Korea since they enable a considerable level of operational preparedness without a formal defense pact. For instance, South Korea could discuss target allocations for North Korean TELs with its Japanese counterparts in order to effectively use the finite weapons available to Japan’s enemy base strike capability and South Korea’s Kill Chain and Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR).

Naturally, the primary objective should be functional integration in fields where both governments already have overlapping interests. A large set of measures—spanning from ISR coordination to cyber defense—can be institutionalized without creating either an integrated force or an Asian version of NATO.

Both the NRF and EU Battlegroups revealed the limits of formations that remained dependent on political and operational arrangements being assembled only when crises occur. German-Dutch cooperation worked better since many of those arrangements already existed.

Given the historical baggage that Japan and South Korea carry, it would undoubtedly be a Herculean task for them to take novel steps. Nonetheless, the emerging regional security environment is rapidly narrowing down the available options.