Energy

PARIS: France and Iraq on Monday called for a “diversification of export routes” for oil and gas in the Middle East in response to the instability generated by the conflict between the United States and Iran, following talks in Paris.

French President Emmanuel Macron and Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi stressed the importance of “regional interconnections” and export route diversification to “ensure regional energy security”, in a joint statement.

Zaidi visited the Elysee Paris on his first trip to Europe since taking office in May and is also expected in Berlin on Tuesday.

The visit comes as the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels cementing their hold on the Bab Al-Mandab strait on Friday, adding to the crisis of Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and driving oil prices up.

On Monday, French energy giant TotalEnergies signed a memorandum of understanding with Iraq on liquefied natural gas supplies and agreed to discuss further energy projects.

TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne “affirmed the company’s readiness to cooperate with Iraq in the oil and energy sectors”, noting the company planned to increase its investments in Iraq to $16 billion from $12 billion, during a meeting with Zaidi.

The two countries, which in recent years have been involved in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group, also agreed to deepen defence cooperation.

They signed a strategic roadmap on the acquisition of French military equipment as Iraq seeks to modernise its armed forces and strengthen its sovereignty capabilities.

French drone company Harmattan AI separately signed a letter of intent with Iraq’s defence ministry concerning autonomous air-defence systems.

Several other agreements were signed in areas including development assistance, education, civil aviation and electricity infrastructure.

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said Monday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed not to target each other’s energy facilities, a day after he chastised Kyiv for hitting Russian oil refineries.

“Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise!” Trump said on his Truth Social network.

“The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran.”

There was no immediate confirmation from Kyiv or Moscow of any deal.

Trump’s claim comes as oil prices continue to soar in the seventh month of the Iran war, raising American fuel costs and inflation just weeks before crunch US midterm elections.

The US leader has insisted that the Iran war will finish immediately after the midterms and gas prices will drop — but has in the meantime apparently found a new target to blame for the cost at the pump.

Trump had lashed out at Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky during a trip to Ireland on Sunday, saying he had to do “one thing” and “stop knocking out diesel fuel” refineries in Russia due to growing shortages.

“Let him go after targets, but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel,” Trump said, again insisting the Russia-Ukraine war — not the US-Israel conflict with Iran — was to blame.

Trump added he had spoken to Ukraine’s leader about the country’s stepped-up attacks on such sites over recent months.

“There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel because that’s hurting. That’s hurting the world. We don’t want him to hit diesel fuel… He’s hitting diesel refineries.”

Ukraine has hit numerous Russian oil refineries far from its border with Russia, while Moscow has also intensified its long-range attacks in recent months, leading to a jump in civilian deaths.

Kyiv has been firing record numbers of drones at Russia, while Moscow has been launching all-time high missile attacks.

Trump said last week he had a “great conversation” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, insisting that Putin wanted to make a deal to end Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

Putin “is wanting to make a deal, and if Zelensky is wanting to make a deal, that’d be very nice,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday.

Zelensky said last week he would be willing to meet Putin at the G20 summit at Trump’s own Doral resort in Miami in December, but the Kremlin immediately ruled it out.

Demonstrators burn tyres and block highways as protests over increased fuel prices grip Syrian cities.

Protests have erupted across several cities in Syria after the government increased fuel prices, with demonstrators blocking a main highway for several hours.

The government raised prices on Sunday by up to 40 percent on diesel and 28 percent on petrol, in what it said were temporary increases caused by a sharp rise in the global cost of securing fuel.

Syria’s government also cited an overhaul of the critical Baniyas refinery for higher prices, saying it will raise capacity from 80,000 to 130,000 barrels per day.

Protests were reported in Hama, Khan Sheikhoun and Maarat al-Numan. Footage published by Al Jazeera shows crowds gathering on the street and burning tyres. The price increases also prompted fierce debate on social media.

The country is currently producing about 102,000 barrels of oil per day, while it needs about 325,000 barrels per day for domestic consumption and is relying on imports to make up the difference, Syrian Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir said on Saturday.

The Ministry of Energy said it would continue to review prices as global market conditions change and would work over the long term to expand refining and storage capacity, according to the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).

Syria’s fuel supplies are key to the country’s economic recovery as it seeks to rebuild after 14 years of war.

JEDDAH: Oman’s refinery output fell 3.7 percent year on year to about 129.1 million barrels through July, with diesel production declining 6.8 percent, according to preliminary data from the National Centre for Statistics and Information. 

The latest figures showed that total motor-fuel production declined 1.4 percent through July, Oman News Agency reported, citing NCSI data. 

Diesel production fell to 43.31 million barrels from 46.48 million barrels a year earlier. Domestic sales declined 8.3 percent to 11.11 million barrels, while exports fell 11.8 percent to 33.33 million barrels. 

The decline in refinery output comes as Oman continues to develop its downstream energy and petrochemical industries as part of its economic diversification strategy. Invest Oman describes the petrochemical sector as a key pillar of Oman Vision 2040, with major projects including the Duqm Refinery and Liwa Plastics supporting the production of higher-value products from the country’s hydrocarbon resources. 

Production of regular gasoline, or 91-octane petrol, fell 4.5 percent to 9.63 million barrels through July, compared with 10.09 million barrels during the same period in 2025. Sales declined 4.6 percent to 10.04 million barrels, while exports rose 9.8 percent to 1.98 million barrels. 

“By contrast, production of premium gasoline, or 95, rose 2.6 percent through the end of July 2026 to 8.32 million barrels, compared with 8.11 million barrels during the same period in 2025,” ONA reported. 

It added that M95 sales, however, fell 10.6 percent to 8.86 million barrels, from 9.90 million barrels, while exports dropped 33.9 percent to 362,900 barrels, compared with 549,100 barrels a year earlier. 

The figures extend a trend seen earlier in the year. Through June, Oman’s total refinery output had fallen 5.1 percent to 108.85 million barrels, with diesel and regular petrol production declining while jet fuel and naphtha output increased. 

Jet fuel, naphtha rise 

Jet fuel production increased 12 percent to 16.79 million barrels through July, from 14.99 million barrels a year earlier. Sales fell 9.2 percent to 2.57 million barrels, while exports rose 27.4 percent to 14.52 million barrels. 

Naphtha production increased 4.5 percent to 22.61 million barrels, while sales rose 3.2 percent to 8.33 million barrels and exports increased 2.6 percent to 14.66 million barrels. 

LPG and other refinery products 

Liquefied petroleum gas production declined 3.3 percent through the end of July to 6.46 million barrels, compared with 6.68 million barrels during the same period in 2025. 

“Its sales also fell 22 percent to 1.76 million barrels, compared with 2.26 million barrels. By contrast, its exports increased 3.9 percent to 2.06 million barrels, compared with 1.98 million barrels,” ONA stated. 

Production of other refinery products fell 15.9 percent to 21.97 million barrels, compared with 26.12 million barrels a year earlier, with sales of those products declining 21.7 percent to 18.32 million barrels and exports falling 3.1 percent to 5.62 million barrels. 

Petrochemical production 

In the petrochemical sector, benzene production increased 7.3 percent to 109,900 tonnes through July, compared with 102,400 tonnes during the same period of 2025, while exports of the aromatic chemical rose 11.3 percent to 108,000 tonnes, according to the statistics. 

Paraxylene production increased 9.6 percent to 370,500 tonnes, compared with 338,000 tonnes a year earlier, with exports rising 1.7 percent to 372,400 tonnes. 

Polypropylene production, meanwhile, fell 25.4 percent to 149,900 tonnes from 200,800 tonnes during the same period last year. 

Despite the decline in output, sales of the key plastic material rose 32.1 percent to 23,500 tonnes, while exports fell 17.9 percent to 122,300 tonnes, compared with 148,900 tonnes. 

WASHINGTON: The IMF said the global economy had weathered the energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East better than feared and global economic output was still expected to expand by about 3 percent in 2026, but it cautioned that risks remained high.

Julie Kozack, spokesperson for the International Monetary Fund, said oil and gas prices remained elevated and the energy shock from the war was not over.

Global debt pressures were also mounting and the disinflation process over the 2022 cost-of-living crisis had stalled.

Global inflationary expectations have risen but remain well-anchored ‌over the longer ‌run, Kozack told a regular IMF briefing.

“So far, despite six months of ‌war in the Middle East, the global economy has been resilient,” Kozack said, adding that the use of oil and gas reserves had allowed some countries to cope with energy shocks caused by the war, while others had shifted to new energy sources or acted to curb demand.

“We remain on track for world growth of around 3 percent but uncertainty, as we’ve been saying for quite some time, continues to remain high,” she said.

The IMF in July forecast 2026 global growth at a sluggish 3 percent, compared with an average of 3.5 percent seen in 2024 and 2025, and its April forecast of 3.1 percent.

At the time, it said that forecast assumed ‌the war would wind down in mid-July, but Iran and ‌the US have both escalated their attacks and the war has widened with increased military activity in Yemen.

The ‌global lender will release an updated forecast during the annual meetings of the IMF and the ‌World Bank in Bangkok from Oct. 12 to 18.

Pulled in opposite directions

Kozack said the global economy was being pulled in opposite directions by the negative energy supply shock that was driving prices of energy, fertilizers, food and other commodities sharply higher, while the AI-led technology cycle was providing a positive demand shock.

Risks remain high, with many countries needing to ‌restock their oil and gas reserves, and energy demands set to rise as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, she said.

Pressures are also mounting on global public debt, which is already at nearly 100 percent of gross domestic product — the highest level since World War Two — and is set to rise further, Kozack said. Many advanced economies have particularly high public-debt-to-GDP ratios.

Liquidity problems are also building in developing countries, including in Africa, partly due to a reduction in bilateral assistance, Kozack said.

The IMF is urging central bankers to stick to their price stability mandates, while encouraging fiscal policymakers to develop medium-term consolidation plans, she said.

“We’re not in a situation where fiscal consolidation needs to take place overnight, but having a clear, laid-out plan and strategy for how deficits and debt are going to come down is very important for fiscal authorities,” Kozack said.

The IMF was also urging authorities to focus on lifting growth prospects through structural reforms and removing “self-inflicted” barriers to growth, she said.

Kozack said the IMF would look closely at the impact of new US sanctions against Iran, including secondary sanctions aimed at firms in third countries that support Tehran.

A fuller report was expected in the upcoming global outlook, she said.

Frankfurt has tightened again.

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The European Central Bank’s governing council lifted the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.5% on Thursday. It is the second hike since 11 June, when the ECB moved for the first time in three years.

The ECB sets monetary policy for the eurozone through three key interest rates, with the deposit facility rate serving as its main policy benchmark.

The main refinancing rate was lifted to 2.65% and the marginal lending facility to 2.9%.

In its statement, the central bank noted that “the conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period,” while ensuring that “with today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict.”

The ECB staff projections continue to estimate that headline inflation will average 3% this year. However, it has revised up the expectations for 2027 and 2028 to 2.5% and 2.1% respectively, compared with June.

An energy problem, not a demand problem

The decision follows an August inflation reading of 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July and the highest since September 2023.

Energy costs did nearly all the work, with energy inflation jumping to 14.3% from 10.3%, as fighting around the Strait of Hormuz kept crude supply constrained. The problem persists as Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel again on Wednesday due to renewed exchanges of fire between the US and Iran.

Underneath, the picture is calmer.

Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, actually fell to 2.4% from 2.5% in August, while services inflation, the component most sensitive to wages, dropped to 3% from 3.3%. There is still little sign that expensive energy is spreading into the rest of the economy.

That distinction has been central to the ECB’s own thinking.

In a paper published earlier this month, its economists found that adverse energy supply factors accounted for around 90% of the rise in energy inflation between January and May of this year.

“This time the energy supply shock dominates, while demand and public policy stimulus have minor roles,” the economists wrote, contrasting it with the 2021-22 surge that prompted a far more aggressive response.

A single rate for very different economies

The eurozone inflation average conceals a wide spread.

August inflation ran at 4.5% in Spain, 2.9% in Germany and 2.7% in France, three economies facing the same energy shock with markedly different outcomes.

Growth complicates matters further.

The bloc has held up better than expected, but resilience is not overheating, and even at 2.5% the deposit rate remains within the range the ECB considers neutral. Going further would mean deciding that policy must actively restrain the economy.

Christine Lagarde had signalled this move in July, when the council held rates but instructed staff to model oil and gas scenarios ahead of September.

“The burden of proof is on data,” Lagarde said then, adding that “the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out.”

Thursday’s decision comes alongside fresh staff projections, though their cut-off date falls roughly two weeks before the meeting, meaning neither the latest leg higher in oil nor the surge in European government bond yields to 15-year highs will be reflected.

Attention now turns to Frankfurt’s peers.

The Federal Reserve will announce on 16 September and the Bank of Japan on the 18, with both expected to consider hikes of their own.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England will decide on 17 September and is expected to hold rates as it currently maintains a much higher benchmark than the rest at 3.75%.

BERLIN: The leader of the United Arab Emirates began a state visit to Germany on Thursday, during which deals worth billions of euros will be signed in sectors including energy and technology, Emirati diplomats said.

Berlin rolled out the red carpet for Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, who was received with military honors by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and was later to meet Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Security was tight for the visit, with Berlin cordoning off flag-lined streets and deploying large numbers of police.

“Over the course of this visit, the UAE and Germany will make a number of key announcements and multibillion-euro agreements across investment, business, technology, AI and energy,” senior UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh said at a briefing ahead of the visit.

The visit comes as the US war against Iran has roiled the Gulf region, with US President Donald Trump’s erratic diplomacy unsettling many midsize powers and leading them to diversify their strategic and economic partnerships.

Merz visited the Gulf region in February, shortly before the US-Israeli war started against Iran. He said then that “we need such partnerships more than ever at a time when major powers are increasingly dominating politics”.

The UAE is Germany’s largest trading partner in the Gulf, with bilateral trade topping $15 billion last year, and many big German companies have a presence there including BMW, Siemens, ThyssenKrupp and rail operator Deutsche Bahn.

The UAE meanwhile has made major investments in Germany, including in the chemical industry and offshore wind power.

During Merz’s visit in February, German energy giant RWE and Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC signed a memorandum of understanding on LNG imports over the next decade.

Gulf countries have also long bought defense equipment from Germany and have shown interest in start-ups that make drones to bolster NATO’s deterrence efforts against Russia.

Germany, the largest EU economy, supports talks towards a European Union free trade deal with the Emirates.

The group Human Rights Watch called on German leaders during the visit to “publicly call out the United Arab Emirates’ human rights record and its role in regional conflicts”.

No joint press conference was scheduled with Merz and Sheikh Mohamed.

Ukraine launches one of its deepest strikes to date, targeting gas plants in Russia’s Arctic region.

Russian forces have launched attacks across Ukraine, killing at least seven people, according to Ukrainian officials, as Kyiv claimed responsibility for a drone attack that set off a fire at a natural gas plant deep in Russia’s Arctic region.

Four people were killed in a Russian attack in Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine overnight on Thursday, while three were killed in a drone attack on a shopping centre in the northeastern city of Sumy, according to Ukrainian authorities.

Heorhii ⁠Reshetilov, the acting governor of the Mykolaiv region, said the Russian strikes there hit both civilian and industrial infrastructure, killing two men and two women. At least 19 others were wounded, he said on Telegram.

The attack in Sumy left at least 14 people wounded, according to Oleh Hryhorov, head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration. Three of the victims were children, he said on Telegram.

The Russian Ministry of Defence confirmed the attack in Mykolaiv, but said it targeted a drone warehouse. The ministry said it also hit the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk and two vessels near Odesa on the Black Sea.

The targets of the strikes were being used for military purposes, the ministry claimed.

The attacks came after Russian authorities said Ukrainian forces had launched a drone attack on the country’s Yamal-Nenets region, which is located some 2,800 kilometres (1,700 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

Dmitry Artyukhov, the region’s governor, said the attack targeted an industrial facility in Novy Urengoy. The attack was repelled, but falling debris from the drone caused a fire, he said on Telegram.

“The main thing is that there were no deaths or injuries. The extent and nature of the damage are being determined,” he added.

Artem Zhoga, the Kremlin’s envoy to the Urals, said Wednesday’s strike was the first ever to hit the Arctic part of the region.

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SOF) confirmed the attack in a series of posts on X.

“For the first time! Deepest strike of the war: Ukrainian SOF hit critical russian plants more than 3,000 km away,” it said. “Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces carried out the deepest strike inside russia since the beginning of the full-scale war.”

In the posts, the Ukrainian force claimed it “successfully struck” two gas plants, Novy Urengoy and Purovsky.

“Until today, the area was considered a safe rear zone for the aggressor,” it added.

The Ukrainian force said the facilities play a key role in Russia’s gas industry, processing large volumes of condensate from gas fields across the Yamal region, processing millions of tonnes of condensate per year.

Gazprom used ⁠to export gas from Yamal as far as Western Europe ⁠until relations broke ⁠down following the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022.

It estimated the region’s gas resources at ‌26.5 trillion cubic metres as of 2020, enough to cover global demand for more than ‌six ‌years.

Ukraine has escalated its long-range strikes on Russia in recent months, in retaliation for daily Russian bombardment of Ukrainian towns and cities.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country’s drones would make Russian airspace “completely unsafe” for the duration of the war.

Just hours ago, the Saudi Aramco refinery at Jazan on the Red Sea was engulfed in flames after a Houthi missile and drone attack. Strikes at the heart of the Saudi’s energy infrastructure on the Red Sea, which acts as the remaining primary lifeline of energy exports out of the region, threaten to drastically impact global oil prices further, a concern we have been raising for some time. In the wake of the attack and additional fighting in the Persian Gulf, oil prices surged toward the $100 per-barrel mark.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces carried out a qualitative, large-scale military operation, targeting the Aramco company in Abha, Najran and the Economic City, Aramco in Jizan, and Khamis Mushait Air Base with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones,” Houthi spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree stated on Telegram. “The strikes were precise, by God’s grace, and direct, causing major damage to those facilities.”

Saree claimed that the strikes were “in response to the Saudi aggression that targeted our people and our country with 121 air strikes over the past three days.”

Saudi officials confirmed Houthi attacks and said they would retaliate.

“The terrorist Houthi Militia’s senseless attacks, the latest of which targeted civilian and economic sites in the cities of (Abha, Khamis Mashait, Jazan and Najran) resulting in injuries to (73) civilians, including women and children, constitute a blatant violation of the Kingdom’s sovereignty and a direct threat to the security and safety of its citizens and residents,” anti-Houthi coalition spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki Al-Maliki stated on X. 

“The Joint Forces Command of the Coalition will take all necessary operational measures to deter this Terrorist Militia and resolutely confront its hostile approach, in defense of the Kingdom’s sovereignty, the preservation of its national assets and the safety of its citizens and residents,” Al-Maliki added. “The Command will also take all necessary measures and actions to respond to the sources of the threat and neutralize its danger.”

Barrow pledges new power infrastructure, including a 24-megawatt plant, to tackle The Gambia’s worsening electricity crisis.

Gambian President Adama Barrow has said the country will boost energy supplies by next month, hoping to quell violent protests over prolonged power outages as the premier stands for re-election.

Protesters burned tyres and built barricades blocking traffic, demanding that Barrow resign, in The Gambia’s capital, Banjul, and nearby cities on Monday and Tuesday.

Police used tear gas to disperse crowds who gathered in multiple locations, including near Barrow’s residence and the National Water and Electricity Corporation (NAWEC) headquarters, which supplies the country’s electricity.

Barrow declared the outages an emergency and a “national security issue” during a visit to a NAWEC power station. In a national address, he announced that the government would install a 24-megawatt generation machine by the end of October.

“I know that the fans have stopped turning, children work in the dark, mothers throw away stale food, and the heat is unbearable by day and by night,” Barrow said.

The rolling blackouts are taking place during the West African country’s hot season and have lasted up to 48 hours in some places.

The Gambian president also announced an additional 50-megawatt solar power plant that would begin construction soon.

NAWEC Managing Director Gallo said the prolonged electricity cuts were in part due to climate change and the US-Israel war on Iran. The electricity provider, in a statement released in August, also claimed that it was experiencing an “unforeseen surge” in demand due to high temperatures.

The blackouts come just months ahead of the December presidential election, in which Barrow is running for a third term.

US military says it struck the five Iranian tankers after IRGC targeted a US warship twice in two days.

The United States has claimed attacks on five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after accusing Iran of launching ballistic missiles at a US warship twice in two days.

Iran responded to the attacks on Tuesday by firing missiles at US forces stationed at the Al Azraq base in Jordan. Amman said its air defences intercepted and destroyed 18 of 20 Iranian missiles, while the rest fell in open areas.

The exchange of fire comes amid escalating tensions in the Gulf, six months into the US and Israel’s war on Iran, with Tehran maintaining the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

The hostilities briefly drove oil prices to $99.46 earlier on Tuesday.

In a statement, the US Central Command said Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had targeted a US warship twice over the past two days. The warship “successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks” and “no American personnel were harmed”, it said.

The Central Command said it retaliated by destroying the Iranian oil carriers, M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1, and M/T Riesco in the Gulf of Oman as well as M/T Derya near Kharg Island.

“American forces directed the crews to abandon ship before the vessels were struck and rendered inoperable,” the Central Command added.

Iran’s IRIB state broadcaster confirmed the attack near Kharg Island in the Gulf, which handled some 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports before the war. It reported that the crew was evacuated and said a second tanker was hit near the southern port of Jask on the Gulf of Oman.

The IRGC also said “several” Iranian commercial ships were hit, and said it retaliated by subjecting Al Azraq base in Jordan to “fierce missile strikes”. It claimed hangars used by US fighter jets were destroyed in the ballistic missile attacks.

It went on to claim ballistic missile attacks on the US Navy DDG-119 and DDG-53 destroyers, saying “significant damage was caused to these vessels”.

The IRGC also threatened to target oil tankers in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports, warning crews there to evacuate immediately.

“We warn all the crews of oil tankers in the Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports… to immediately abandon their vessels, whether at anchor or at the ports, because they will be targeted,” it said.

Jordan’s Armed Forces, meanwhile, said its air defences engaged 20 ballistic missiles, “successfully intercepting and destroying 18 of them”. Two missiles “fell in unpopulated areas,” it said in a statement.

The attacks did not cause any casualties and specialised teams “have begun securing the locations where debris and shrapnel fell,” it added.

Earlier, the chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, Ali Abdollahi, had warned that Tehran would strike US military installations across the region if Iranian tankers were targeted.

“The US aggressor army has given Iranian oil tankers an evacuation warning to hit them, so I announce that any attack on Iranian oil tankers will result in the targeting of US bases in the region by the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Abdollahi said on state TV.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, said Washington would continue to strike Iranian ships.

“Iran continues to try to hit US naval ships, and for every time they do that or try to do that, they’re going to lose tankers,” Rubio told reporters on a visit to Colombia.

RIYADH: Saudi-Russian cooperation has proven vital in supporting the stability of global energy markets and achieving a balance that serves the interests of both producers and consumers, the Kingdom’s foreign minister said on Tuesday.

During a visit to Moscow, Prince Faisal bin Farhan said the partnership between Riyadh and Moscow contributes to sustainable global economic growth and fosters cooperation across the economic, trade, and investment sectors.

Prince Faisal met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov who said that the minister’s visit offers a valuable opportunity to discuss Russian-Saudi relations which are witnessing year-on-year development across the trade, economic, investment, cultural, and humanitarian spheres.

Lavrov also affirmed his country’s sincere desire to contribute to efforts aimed at de-escalating the situation in the region and addressing regional issues.

The two ministers emphasized the importance of supporting the diplomatic path to resolve current regional and international challenges — including the Palestinian cause and the situation in Yemen.

They underscored the necessity of ensuring the security and freedom of navigation in international waterways, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab El-Mandab Strait.

Both sides affirmed their aspiration to advance Saudi-Russian relations which were established a hundred years ago.

Tehran has threatened “serious consequences” for South Korea if it interferes in the US-Israel war on Iran.

The warning comes amid reports that Seoul is mulling contributing to the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz passage, which has hampered Iran’s oil exports.

In a statement posted on X on Monday, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran and South Korea had more than 64 years of diplomatic relations based on mutual respect and that Tehran values that friendship.

However, if South Korea joins the United States in its military actions against Iran at a time when the country is defending itself from what he called US aggression and “war crimes against women and children”, then there will be consequences, he warned.

Baghaei threatened that Iran would regard any military presence or participation in operations by another country in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz “would inevitably be regarded as direct support for the aggressor and would have serious consequences”.

“No sovereign and responsible country should succumb to US pressure and intimidation and become complicit in acts of aggression and horrific crimes against the great Iranian nation,” he added.

Seoul did not respond directly, but a Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement on Monday said it is communicating with the international community over the situation in the passageway.

Here’s what we know about how South Korea is getting roped in:

Why is South Korea involved?

Seoul, a close ally of Washington, has been under pressure from US President Donald Trump.

The issues began in mid-August, when Trump revealed in an interview, and later online, that he had spoken to South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and asked that Seoul give “a little hand” in the war on Iran.

According to media reports, the two leaders had spoken over the phone on May 17.

Seoul said, “No, thanks!”, according to Trump’s message on social media.

However, as South Korea now knows, saying no to Trump has repercussions.

On August 16, Trump announced that the US would significantly scale back joint military drills it holds annually with South Korea – the evening before they were scheduled to begin.

The Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercises are meant to sharpen Seoul’s readiness in case of a North Korean attack. They usually last for more than 11 days but were reduced to five.

In a post on his Truth Social site, Trump claimed the drills were “costly” and that they send a “hostile” signal to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with whom he is trying to build a relationship. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said in parliament there was no warning from the US.

Trump also questioned why South Korea would refuse his request when thousands of US soldiers are stationed on the Korean Peninsula.

The US also cancelled another military exercise scheduled for September, although South Korea’s military revealed it received a notification much earlier in June, with Washington citing constraints due to the war on Iran.

How has South Korea responded?

President Lee, a liberal who pushes for a dialled-down defence posture, has opted to negotiate. His office earlier released statements saying it hopes for “meaningful dialogue” with Trump.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported on Monday that Washington has, however, “ratcheted up pressure” on Seoul.

On Friday, a South Korean presidential official told Yonhap that Seoul could consider a military contribution to international measures seeking to free up navigation in the passageway as long as it does not affect the country’s defence readiness.

South Korea is looking at various options, the official said, including possible cooperation with France, the United Kingdom and other allies on sending noncombat and search-and-rescue forces.

The South Korean military has also started reviewing assets and troops that could be deployed, including maritime patrol aircraft, explosive ordnance disposal teams and unmanned mine detection and clearing systems, he added.

Such a move would be unpopular. The opposition has spoken out against a possible deployment, as have some within Lee’s ruling Democratic Party. Many South Koreans have also protested against the US-Israel war on Iran.

What is the history of US-South Korea relations?

South Korea became one of the US’s closest allies after Washington backed Seoul against Pyongyang in the Korean War of 1950.

The US supported Seoul’s economic and military growth in the years after. Under a treaty, some 29,000 US soldiers have been stationed permanently on the Korean Peninsula since the end of the war. Seoul has also relied on US defence might to deter nuclear-armed North Korea.

In return, South Korea supported several US wars, including the Iraq War, and is designated an important non-NATO ally.

In 2025, however, Washington imposed a 25 percent tariff on the country, testing relations. Seoul opted to negotiate rather than retaliate, leading the US to lower tariffs to 15 percent.

Many South Koreans were also alarmed after hundreds of South Koreans were arrested in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids on a Hyundai plant in Georgia in September 2025.

Last October, Trump travelled to Seoul in a historic state visit, and earlier this year, President Lee visited the US. Lee is also trying to resume dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang.

How is South Korea being affected by the US-Israel war on Iran?

South Korea is facing an economic crisis. The country relies on the Gulf supplies via the Strait of Hormuz for 60 to 70 percent of crude imports, meaning supply is being severely hit. The war has led to soaring inflation, causing the Korean won to fall to a 17-year low.

Seoul therefore has an interest in freeing up the strait. However, under Korean law, the government will require parliament’s approval before a military deployment, although some governing party members could oppose it.

Oil prices are rising to nearly a six-week high amid a wave of strikes between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply travels during peacetime.

On Monday, Brent oil futures, the global benchmark, rose to hover around $97 a barrel — up 9 percent over the last five days and 19 percent over the last month. Monday’s market moves are approaching the highest point since July 24th, when prices topped $97.93.

US West Texas Intermediate crude similarly rose to $92.27 a barrel, up 79 cents, also a near six-week high.

In recent days, strikes escalated in the Strait of Hormuz. The US hit three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had struck three tankers and three US-linked vessels in other areas.

“This is a reflection of continued conflict and exchange of fire. The supply deficits globally are persisting, and there is little end to these shortages,” Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told Al Jazeera.

On Monday, Saudi Aramco’s Jizan facilities were struck for the second time in the last month, according to reporting from the Financial Times that cited two people familiar with the matter.

“The fact that a Saudi refinery in Jizan was hit, possibly delaying its return to production, didn’t help,” Ziemba added.

Amid increased strikes, there’s less traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, with an average of 10 commodity ships crossing the vital chokepoint each day over the last 10 days, according to Kpler, a data analytics platform.

“Crude went back down to what the pre-war level was in early July. Then it increased again, and then it reduced again, and now it’s increasing again on this weekend’s exchange plus the Aramco attack,” Arif Gasilov, a partner at the Gasilov Group, an energy advisory firm, told Al Jazeera.

“I would say that you might eventually see an inflection point, depending on how long this keeps going on, where a ceasefire doesn’t move the market at all, maybe by just a dollar or two.”

US consumers pinched

US consumers are feeling the impact of heightened oil prices at the petrol pump. The average price for a gallon (3.78 litres) of petrol has jumped 7 cents over the course of a week, reaching $4.15 nationally on Monday, up from $4.08 this time a week ago, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices.

That’s up from $4.04 this time a month ago and $2.98 from February 28th, when the US and Israel first struck Iran, marking a 39 percent increase since the war began.

Last week, diesel prices hit all-time highs at $5.85 per gallon.

“US diesel prices have never been this high, and now the countdown starts for the trickle-down to everything consumers buy… record diesel will start funnelling down into the economy,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on the social media platform X.

Prices have continued to climb since, with average prices on Monday topping $5.90 per gallon.

“Markets are pricing in longer disruptions. It continues to be in product markets where the biggest disruptions lie, though, including diesel,” Ziemba added.

Those price gains are weighing on Americans, who have spent an average of $764.59 per household on fuel since the war began. That’s $418.82 more than usual, according to Brown University’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs.

Ahead of the US’s September 5-7 Labor Day weekend, the unofficial end of summer and a popular time for US travel, AAA forecasts showed a 20 percent increase in flight costs compared to the same weekend last year.

Ahead of the midterm elections, the economy is emerging as a key issue for US voters — and a potential warning sign for Republicans. Polls show voters souring on President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, with his economic approval rating falling to a new low in a recent Financial Times poll. Just 17 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy.

An Economist/YouGov poll similarly found that 39 percent of Americans believe Democrats are doing a better job handling the economy, compared with 32 percent who said Republicans are.

China pressures

Southeast and East Asian markets rely more heavily on imports travelling through the Strait of Hormuz directly than the US, but Beijing has moved to insulate itself from the disruption by turning to domestic sources, including its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).

“China has been managing this situation successfully since the beginning of the war. We know that China has many domestic resources, despite rising oil prices,” John Gong, an economics professor at the University of International Business and Economics, told Al Jazeera.

“China has been conserving its oil and gas consumption for quite some time now. China was prepared for these challenges,” Gong said.

He also stressed that China’s close relations with Russia give Beijing another source of supply, with Moscow able to provide nearly half of China’s daily oil needs.

China has also begun tapping into its SPR while reducing its reliance on imports, as Beijing accelerates a broader shift towards alternative energy sources and vehicles that require little or no oil to operate.

“We have national strategies focused on transitioning to clean energies like solar and green power,” Gong said. “When we look at the vehicles purchased in China, more than 50 percent of cars sold on the Chinese market are electric.”

RIYADH: Companies listed across the Gulf Cooperation Council posted a record $74.8 billion in net profits in the second quarter of 2026, up 31.3 percent year on year, driven by gains in the energy and banking sectors, according to an analysis.  

In its latest report, Kamco Invest said the rise in net profit also reflected higher average crude oil prices amid the regional geopolitical situation, which more than offset a decline in crude oil exports from the region. 

Compared with the previous three months, net profit of listed companies in the GCC region increased 10 percent. 

The strong figures underscore the resilience of GCC corporates even as geopolitical tensions and regional disruptions continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The gains also highlight the continued importance of energy to Gulf corporate earnings, even as governments pursue economic diversification and non-oil sectors expand.  

In its report, Kamco stated: “At the country level, the increase in profits mainly reflected double-digit y-o-y growth in profits for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Oman and 4.9 percent growth in profits for companies listed on Dubai Exchange.  

It added: “On the other hand, Qatari and Bahraini companies reported decline in quarterly profits by 20 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.” 

Industry observer Tony Hallside, CEO of STP Partners, said the record $74.8 billion profit figure reflected strength beyond the headline number. “Higher oil prices clearly provided a major tailwind, with energy-sector profits rising more than 40 percent, but earnings growth across several other sectors shows that corporate activity remains resilient.”  

He added: “For investors, that breadth is arguably more important than the record number itself.”  

Aggregate revenues for GCC-listed companies rose 17 percent year on year to $381.6 billion in the second quarter and 8.1 percent quarter on quarter. 

Excluding Saudi Aramco, revenue growth for the rest of the region remained in double digits at 11.4 percent. 

Saudi Arabia leads growth 

Saudi-listed companies accounted for the bulk of the gain in the region, with aggregate net profits rising 36.7 percent to $45.3 billion from $33.2 billion a year earlier. 

Energy, banking and materials together made up 92 percent of Saudi earnings in the quarter. 

Saudi Aramco’s net profit increased 42 percent year on year to $32.4 billion, supported by a 19 percent rise in total revenue as realized crude prices climbed from $66.7 a barrel in the second quarter of 2025 to $108.1 a barrel in the second quarter of this year. 

Saudi Arabia’s banking sector net profits increased 8.3 percent to $6.6 billion from $6.1 billion, supported by strong lending growth and resilient operating income. 

Al Rajhi Bank reported $1.9 billion net profit, up from $1.6 billion, driven by a 13.7 percent increase in net income from financing and investments and a 13.3 percent rise in total operating income. 

Saudi National Bank recorded a 7.5 percent increase in net profit to $1.8 billion, mainly supported by a 1.6 percent rise in income from financing and investments. 

“Saudi Arabia remains the earnings engine of the GCC market. Aramco was clearly a major contributor as higher crude prices lifted energy earnings, but the more interesting figure is that Saudi-listed company revenues still grew around 11 percent excluding Aramco,” said Hallside.  

He noted that it points to “broader corporate momentum and gives investors more evidence that the opportunity set in Saudi equities is widening beyond the traditional energy story.”   

Wider regional outlook  

Kuwaiti companies recorded the largest percentage increase, with net profits almost doubling to $3.1 billion, partly reflecting the absence of large losses from discontinued operations that weighed on Agility in the year-earlier quarter. 

Abu Dhabi profits rose 41.8 percent year on year to $14.7 billion. Dubai-listed firms grew 4.9 percent to $6.9 billion. 

Qatari companies saw profits fall 20 percent to $2.9 billion, while Bahraini firms declined 0.4 percent to $572 million. Omani companies rose 24.2 percent to $1.4 billion. 

In the first half of 2026, aggregate net profits for GCC-listed companies rose 23.1 percent, or $26.8 billion, to $142.81 billion. The increase was led by almost 30 percent growth in Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia, followed by a 14.6 percent rise in Oman. Kuwaiti and Dubai-listed companies registered high single-digit growth, while Qatar and Bahrain recorded declines of 11.6 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. 

Sectoral outlook  

Sector performance was mixed but broadly positive. Energy profits jumped 41.6 percent year on year to $36.2 billion in the second quarter. 

Food, beverage and tobacco more than doubled to $3.9 billion. Real estate, materials, capital goods and transportation also posted higher profits. 

Banks reached a record $17.8 billion, up from $16.6 billion, with six of seven country aggregates higher. Telecom recorded modest growth. Utilities, food and staples retailing, and media and entertainment declined. 

“What stands out is the divergence within the GCC. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Oman all delivered double-digit profit growth, while Qatar and Bahrain saw declines. That tells investors this remains a market where country and sector selection matters,” said Hallside.  

He noted that banks and telecoms continued to grow, albeit more moderately, while energy, real estate, materials and transportation were stronger. “The GCC cannot be treated as one homogeneous equity market; earnings drivers are becoming increasingly differentiated,” Hallside added. 

The global ratings agency has also maintained the country’s sovereign rating at AA.

Fitch Ratings has removed Qatar from “Rating Watch Negative” while maintaining its sovereign rating at AA amid the US-Israel war on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

The global ratings agency announced the decision on Friday, citing reduced risks to the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities since March.

The agency, however, kept a negative outlook on the rating, citing ongoing risks surrounding the movement of gas exports through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.

“The impact of the war on the credit profile will take longer to discern,” the agency said in a statement.

Qatar, one of the world’s largest gas exporters, continues to face export disruptions and shortages caused by damaged energy facilities during the war on Iran, which began six months ago.

Earlier this year, credit agencies S&P and Moody’s also affirmed Qatar’s ratings, noting that the country’s sizeable financial cushion helps protect it from the economic impact of the war.

Caracas, September 3, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright celebrated an oil agreement between the two countries and North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) and a flurry of additional energy deals signed on Wednesday.

“This is a historic day in the transformation of Venezuela,” Wright said in a joint press conference at Miraflores Palace. “President [Donald] Trump has a clear mission in Venezuela: to bring peace, freedom, and prosperity to everyone.”

The US official went on to praise the “enormous deal” announced last Friday that will see NABEP, a company owned by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, receive long-term concessions for 17 prime oilfields in the Caribbean nation that hold 65 billion barrels of reserves.

According to the White House, the US Department of War’s Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) will acquire a 35 percent stake in NABEP through penny warrants. The US State Department will be able to purchase 20 percent of NABEP’s production at cost and hold a right of first refusal for the remaining 80 percent. 

Washington will likewise control the company’s board of directors. Wright stated that the NABEP deal is “ambitious” and predicted that Venezuelan oil production would surpass 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the decade, nearly doubling the current output of 1.1 million bpd.

For her part, Rodríguez urged Wright to convey her gratitude to Trump, the US State Department, and the Department of Energy for helping secure “a mutually beneficial, win-win agreement.”

“I trust that the binational agreement will also prove beneficial for the people of the United States,” the acting president told reporters. “Venezuela is ready to welcome these investments that will boost the country’s development.”

Rodríguez had previously stated that Venezuela is estimating US $19 of revenue per barrel extracted in the project, significantly below the government take under the 2001 Hydrocarbon Law enacted by former President Hugo Chávez. The law was overhauled with US support in January to expand benefits for foreign corporations.

Both Rodríguez and Wright faced questions about Betancourt, who has faced embezzlement and money laundering investigations in Spain and Switzerland stemming from alleged corruption in dealings with state oil company PDVSA.

NABEP has operated in the country since 2024 and was awarded the project without a prior bidding process. It is currently Venezuela’s second-largest crude producer after Chevron. Wright said the US government had negotiated the agreement carefully and would exercise strict control over the flow of funds associated with the NABEP deal.

Rodríguez, for her part, said that Betancourt is not facing any judicial proceedings in Venezuela, with a 2022 arrest warrant for corruption having been dropped one year later. Similarly, Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued in an interview that the Venezuelan mogul is not the subject of any investigation in the US.

Before the afternoon press conference, Wright attended a ceremony at the presidential palace that saw the Venezuelan government sign a number of agreements with foreign corporations.

Chevron, the largest foreign corporation operating in Venezuela, saw its joint venture with PDVSA awarded two additional extra-heavy crude fields, Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2 South, in the Orinoco Oil Belt.

The Texas-based company announced plans to invest $7 billion in its Venezuela projects over the next five years with the goal of more than doubling the current 250,000 bpd output. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth affirmed in an interview that the “strong legal protections” and “improved terms” under the reformed Hydrocarbon Law granted the company “attractive low-cost oil growth” prospects. 

Italian company Eni also signed a contract to develop the Junín-5 block, one of the largest in the Orinoco Oil Belt. The project will migrate from a joint venture with PDVSA majority to a concession-type deal, called a Productive Participation Contract, which offers increased benefits for the private operator.

Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi was likewise present in Miraflores Palace and thanked US and Venezuelan authorities for backing foreign investments in the South American country.

Wednesday’s ceremony also saw Primavera secure a concession to exploit the medium- and heavy-crude Budare-Elotes block in eastern Venezuela. Primavera is an energy-investment vehicle created by billionaire Fred Ehrsam, a Trump supporter and co-founder of Coinbase, to enter the Venezuelan oil industry.

Additionally, Colorado-based wildcatter Aspect Energy received rights to study potential new oilfields in eastern Venezuela.

Finally, PDVSA and state electricity company CORPOELEC signed “strategic alliance” agreements with GE Vernova, an offshoot of General Electric, to upgrade and repair electrical infrastructure supporting Venezuela’s oil industry.

Following the pro-business overhaul of its energy sector, Caracas has signed new or updated agreements with multiple Western multinational corporations, including BP, Shell, and Repsol. 

Since the January 3 military strikes and kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration has wielded significant control over the Venezuelan oil and gas industry. The Caribbean nation’s export revenues are currently deposited in a US Treasury account before the White House decides the disbursement timings and amounts.

Washington has also kept wide-reaching sanctions in place while issuing licenses for select corporations and banning dealings with companies from Russia, China, and Iran. With NABEP set to take over five oilfields previously operated by joint ventures with Chinese firms, Beijing demanded that its “rights and interests” in Venezuela be respected.

Edited by Ricardo Vaz in Caracas.

The global energy order is changing.

US President Donald Trump celebrated on Truth Social what he called the “biggest oil deal in history” – a 100-year concession on 17 oil fields in Venezuela that would secure 65 billion barrels of oil.

Around the same time, QatarEnergy informed Edison, one of its biggest European customers, that force majeure on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries would continue until early November. Five more cargoes were cancelled, taking the total to 29, or about 3.8 billion cubic metres of gas.

The contract has run since 2009 and normally covers roughly a tenth of Italy’s annual consumption. Edison has kept supplying its customers by finding replacement cargoes elsewhere, including in the US.

For decades, the bargain between Washington and the Gulf was clear. The US protected the region and kept its sea lanes open; Gulf producers supplied the energy on which the global economy depended and settled their sales in dollars to benefit the US economy.

That bargain has been turned on its head. America no longer simply protects Gulf energy. It competes with it, and increasingly profits when the Gulf cannot deliver due to insecurity.

Six months of war have reportedly impacted Qatar’s LNG exports significantly. Other Gulf countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have seen a substantial drop in oil exports as well. Meanwhile, US oil and gas have moved into the space left behind, with US energy giants raking in record-high profits.

It is important here to distinguish between the US as a government and the dense network of private interests that operates around it. Washington wants strategic leverage over Iran and continued influence over the Gulf states. Energy companies want access to reserves, favourable regulation, profitable prices and new customers. Trump brings the two together under the banner of energy dominance. State power opens the door; private capital walks through it.

Israel adds another layer. Chevron operates its two main offshore gas fields, owning almost 40 percent of the Leviathan gasfield and 25 percent of the Tamar gasfield. Leviathan is expanding after a $35bn agreement was signed last year to increase exports to Egypt.

Israel is therefore not an independent energy rival to the US in the way Qatar is. Its growing role as an Eastern Mediterranean gas hub is tied to a US operator and fits comfortably within a US-backed regional system linking Israel, Egypt and Jordan.

Chevron is the thread running through much of this story. It has major interests in US production, controls Israel’s most important gas assets and is positioned to expand in Venezuela. This does not mean Chevron determines foreign policy. It does show how easily the exercise of American power can translate into commercial opportunity for American companies.

Israel is also determined not to let the confrontation with Iran end on terms it considers not to be in its interest. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June fell well short of Israeli war aims. Israel said it was not bound by all its provisions, insisted on freedom of action in Lebanon and briefly resumed attacks while the US was trying to sustain negotiations.

For Israel, ceasefires have tended to be pauses, not settlements: opportunities to regroup while preserving the option of striking again. The reasons are chiefly strategic. Israel wants to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear, missile and regional capabilities, while Israeli leaders fear accepting a deal and looking weak ahead of elections.

The consequences of Israel pushing for continuous conflict align with US energy interests. Continued pressure on Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz insecure, Gulf exports vulnerable and risk premiums for energy transport high. Israel and US energy companies do not need to be following a common plan for their interests to reinforce one another.

Price is where the argument becomes clearest. Trump talks constantly about cheap oil, but US producers cannot prosper if it becomes too cheap. A Dallas Federal Reserve survey found that US companies needed an average price of about $43 a barrel to operate existing wells and $66 to drill new ones profitably. The two main Permian basins sit at roughly $61 to $62.

Trump therefore needs a narrow band: oil cheap enough to contain inflation, but expensive enough to keep shale, fracking and export investment alive. Gulf insecurity helps maintain it. The disruption need not be catastrophic. It only has to keep prices at a point where the next American well makes economic sense.

This may help explain the attraction of a no-war, no-peace outcome. A full regional war could close Hormuz, send prices soaring and threaten Chevron’s Israeli operations. A durable settlement would remove the risk premium, restore confidence in Gulf supply and limit Israel’s freedom of action.

Managed insecurity sits conveniently between the two: enough restraint to protect US-linked production, but not enough diplomacy to make Gulf energy entirely dependable again.

Israel keeps Iran under pressure. Washington retains leverage over its allies. US producers gain customers and commercially supportive prices. The danger lies in the convergence: Several powerful actors now have something to gain from preventing the crisis from reaching a final resolution.

The Gulf still holds vast reserves and enjoys production costs US companies cannot match. But reserves alone no longer decide market power. Reliability does. Only an estimated 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day can bypass Hormuz through Saudi and Emirati pipelines. The rest remains exposed to a single point of failure, despite decades of arms purchases, foreign bases and security guarantees.

The greatest threat to the Gulf’s energy future is not depletion. It is that customers learn to live without it. Every delayed tanker strengthens the case for an Atlantic alternative. Every Qatari cargo replaced by US LNG creates a relationship that may endure long after the war.

US power once rested partly on protecting the flow of Gulf energy. It now rests increasingly on replacing it.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

America’s second-largest oil company is preparing to deepen its presence in a country most of its rivals abandoned two decades ago.

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An unnamed US official briefed reporters and said Chevron executives would appear alongside US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Venezuela to unveil fresh investment, which would be the first corporate move to follow the agreement that just cleared Venezuela’s National Assembly.

Wright landed in Caracas late on Tuesday after the Venezuelan vote, with the signing set for Wednesday.

Chevron is the only major American producer to have stayed in Venezuela since Hugo Chávez completed the nationalisation of the industry in 2007, a move that drove Exxon and ConocoPhillips out.

A vote and an argument about the fine print

Speaking in Spanish for an interview posted online on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the arrangement in blunt terms.

“Essentially, this is now an agreement with the US government, specifically involving the Defense Department, which holds a special account allowing it to take possession of a certain percentage of these assets,” Rubio said, adding that American backing would help the company attract the private investment needed to develop the fields.

The “vast majority” of the 17 fields had been in Chinese and Russian hands, Rubio pointed out as the White House has also cast the agreement as a reassertion of the Monroe Doctrine.

Those fields come with 100-year rights for North American Blue Energy Partners and hold 65 billion barrels. A new company will be created in which the US Department of War’s Office of Strategic Capital takes a 35% stake, with the US State Department entitled to buy 20% of output at production cost.

US citizens must form a majority of the board, and Washington holds a veto over appointments.

Venezuelan lawmakers approved the agreement by a show of hands, though some opposition members abstained, saying they had not seen the terms.

“We need and are obliged to know what is written in the fine print,” said opposition lawmaker Luis Emilio Rondón.

“Who benefits from this oil if it stays underground?” argued the National Assembly chief Jorge Rodríguez in return.

NABEP is owned by Alejandro Betancourt, who has faced investigations over alleged money laundering in Spain and Switzerland without charges being filed and has been accused of involvement in a corruption scheme at state producer PDVSA.

An unnamed US official called him a “proven operator” while conceding that geopolitics sometimes means dealing with imperfect figures.

“I’m not nominating anyone for sainthood here,” the official said. “What I am telling you is that this is a person that, in the past, has been helpful to the United States government.”

What the deal has not settled

Analysts remain sceptical that output can be revived quickly, with estimates ranging from one to ten years before new barrels reach the market. Washington is not investing money in the venture, officials say, arguing its backing alone will attract the capital needed.

US President Donald Trump suggested on Monday that others would follow Chevron.

“We have Exxon going in, we have Chevron going in. We have our big oil companies going in,” Trump stated.

However, Exxon’s position appears unchanged as a spokesman said on Tuesday that “nothing has changed” after CEO Darren Woods also called Venezuela “uninvestable” earlier this year.

For the US administration, the urgency is domestic.

US President Donald Trump just met oil executives at the White House on Tuesday as petrol prices climbed because of new US strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, posting afterwards that “we are unleashing American Energy Dominance!”

Cheaper fuel is a priority before November’s midterm elections, in which Republicans could lose control of both the House and the Senate.

Additional sources • AP

The IAEA said lack of information and access to facilities to verify Iran’s nuclear material is a proliferation concern.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has called for “utmost urgency” to address the lack of access to Iran’s nuclear sites.

In a quarterly report seen by news agencies on Tuesday, the United Nations nuclear watchdog labelled its “lack of information about this nuclear material and access to facilities to verify it is a matter of proliferation concern”.

The US has claimed preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon – an ambition that Tehran continues to deny – as the motivation for the war that it launched in March. However, Tehran has been successful in shifting the focus of the hostilities to control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz waterway.

In particular, the IAEA report raised concerns over the lack of access to the Isfahan plant, which was targeted several times by the US and Israel over the past year or so.

In the report, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi expressed his “conviction that the long-standing problems and recurrent crises surrounding these issues must be resolved through a long-lasting, verifiable diplomatic agreement”.

However, Iran has said that access to the sites that have been struck by military action must be arranged via special arrangement.

The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, said on August 26 that the IAEA “cannot seek to inspect these centres until it develops specific criteria and protocols for inspecting sites targeted by military attacks”.

Tehran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog following US and Israeli attacks on Iran in June 2025 that included strikes on nuclear sites before saying in September 2025 it would allow the UN agency’s inspectors to return.

However, access to the nuclear sites that have been bombed has not yet been granted. Despite US President Donald Trump having claimed last year that the US had destroyed the facilities and crippled Tehran’s nuclear programme, Iran’s stores of enriched uranium remain unaccounted for.

Tehran has repeatedly denied any military ambition linked to its nuclear programme, insisting on its right to the technology for civilian purposes.

However, the IAEA, whose latest report will be discussed at its board of governors meeting from September 21-25, has reported in the past that the level of Iran’s enrichment of its uranium reserves is well above that needed for civilian purposes, although neither is it at the level of weapons grade.

Venezuela’s National Assembly voted to back the 65-billion-barrel oil deal, despite no details being publicly released.

United States Energy Secretary Chris Wright is set to travel to Venezuela, after the South American country has approved a deal that will see the US seize effective control of a large portion of its oil reserves.

An anonymous US official told reporters that Wright will travel to Venezuela on Tuesday, as the administration of President Donald Trump presses forward with the controversial energy deal.

“First and foremost, it furthers the national interest of the United States,” the official said, adding that it is “critically important” for the US to be able to “to buy oil at cost reliably”.

Details are still emerging about the arrangement, likened by critics to deals imposed by colonial powers.

Still, the interim government of Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez has defended the agreement as a boon to her country’s beleaguered economy. The National Assembly, led by her brother Jorge Rodriguez, voted to back the measure on Tuesday.

“Support for the binational energy treaty between the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and the United States of America … is approved,” Jorge Rodriguez said.

But even within the National Assembly, there was pushback. Some opposition lawmakers abstained from the vote and denounced the fact that the terms of the agreement have yet to be published.

“We need and are obliged to know what is written in the fine print,” lawmaker Luis Emilio Rondon said, calling for “the full and complete text of what has been agreed”.

While details about the arrangement are still emerging, the deal is slated to give the US access to 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela, about one-fifth of the country’s total.

As part of the deal, the US is expected to enter into a partnership with a private company to extract fuel from 17 large Venezuelan oil fields. The lease over the oil fields will run 100 years, according to reports.

The White House confirmed on Monday that it is partnering with North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), helmed by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt who is a former ally of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

The agreement would create a new company, wherein the US Defence Department would take a 35 percent ownership stake and the State Department would have the right to buy 20 percent of the oil produced at cost.

Betancourt has faced criminal investigations for alleged money laundering in Spain and Switzerland.

But a US official who spoke anonymously defended the partnership, arguing that Betancourt is not facing any criminal charges in the US.

“I’m not nominating anyone for sainthood here,” the official said. Instead, the official framed the deal as “a geopolitical opportunity to secure fields that primarily had largely been under the influence of Chinese and Russian companies”.

Asked about the possibility of democratic elections in Venezuela, the official said they were not feasible in the immediate future.

Periods of transition, the official added, “almost invariably requires you to work with elements of the existing structure, even as you are creating a new one”.

Separately, oil giant Chevron is expected to sign an agreement to expand operations in Venezuela on Wednesday.

Venezuela’s energy sector has become dilapidated, with critics blaming heavy US sanctions and government mismanagement.

While the Trump administration has pushed for greater international participation in Venezuela’s oil sector, some companies have expressed scepticism about investing there.

The 65-billion-barrel oil deal was announced on August 27 in a post on Trump’s Truth Social platform.

His administration has exercised increasing influence over Venezuela’s government, since it launched a January 3 military operation to abduct and imprison Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Trump and Maduro had frequently clashed. In the wake of Maduro’s abduction, Trump backed the socialist leader’s vice president, Rodriguez, to take over Venezuela’s government, holding her up as a model of cooperation.