earthquakes

Originally published in Spanish on Asdrúbal’s personal Substack

There are weeks that change a government. And there are weeks that change a country. This is one of them.

Until just a few days ago, the economic debate regarding Venezuela revolved around how much we would grow this year. Around whether the figure would be 4% or 6%, and at what point that growth would materialize in people’s daily lives: exchange rate stabilization, the reestablishment of relations with multilateral organizations, and the possibility of slowly beginning a recovery process.

On the morning of June 24th, a Financial Times scoop centered the discussion on the actual size of our foreign debt. That was the horizon. Today, the horizon no longer looks like that. The earthquakes that struck this week not only leave a human tragedy of dimensions still difficult to quantify; they also profoundly alter the country’s economic outlook. International evidence shows that a major earthquake can generate losses equivalent to between 3% and 10% of GDP, depending not only on physical damage but on the State’s capacity to respond.

Anyone who thinks the problem is limited to the cost of rebuilding highways, hospitals, or housing is seeing only a part of the picture. Earthquakes destroy infrastructure, but they also destroy productivity, employment, tax revenues, logistical chains, and confidence. Thousands of businesses interrupt operations, families postpone consumption and investment decisions, and economic activity loses momentum for months or even years. The expectations and decisions of economic agents are disrupted by a widespread sense of loss and uncertainty.

The economic literature is quite consistent on this point. Studies by the World Bank, the IMF, and numerous academic papers conclude that the impact of a natural disaster depends far less on the intensity of the phenomenon itself than on the institutional strength of the affected nation. Economies with solid States tend to absorb the initial shock and recover relatively quickly. Conversely, in fragile States, a natural disaster often mutates into a prolonged economic crisis because institutional weakness amplifies the damage and delays reconstruction.

The economic agenda will no longer be dominated exclusively by growth, but by reconstruction. We need to prevent the disaster from destroying a large part of Venezuela’s remaining physical and human capital.

That is precisely Venezuela’s primary challenge. Over the years, the country lost fiscal, technical, and operational capacity. This is not a political assessment, but an observable fact. The State’s capacity to design public policy has been significantly reduced. The prolonged economic crisis and hyperinflation led us to a state of “save yourself if you can.”

The difficulties in maintaining basic infrastructure, public utilities, or the hospital network were already evident before the earthquake. Rebuilding cities like La Guaira demands far more than financial resources: it requires planning, engineering, contracting capacity, technical supervision, and a public administration capable of coordinating thousands of projects simultaneously. Today, the Venezuelan State lacks a good portion of those capabilities.

Our recent history shows how society has demonstrated resilience where the State has lost capacity. The private sector, non-governmental organizations, churches, universities, and multiple civil society initiatives have, through years of crisis, developed a remarkable ability to organize, mobilize resources, and respond swiftly to emergencies. We saw it during the pandemic, during the landslides in Las Tejerías, and in so many other humanitarian crises. And we are seeing it now. This accumulated experience will be one of the most critical assets in confronting this tragedy, though on its own, it remains insufficient to undertake a reconstruction of this magnitude.

It would be a mistake to turn international aid into a battleground for confrontation. Venezuela doesn’t need speeches on sovereignty, but engineers, heavy machinery, hospitals, drinking water, electricity, and the capacity to rebuild.

That is why I maintain that this earthquake completely changes the economic conversation. Just a few weeks ago, we were discussing how to accelerate growth, attract investment, or deepen reforms. We argued that institutional reform was necessary for Venezuela to achieve sustained and inclusive growth. Today, the priority has shifted to preventing the disaster from destroying a large part of the country’s remaining physical and human capital. The economic agenda will no longer be dominated exclusively by growth, but by reconstruction.

An inevitable conclusion emerges from this: Venezuela cannot face this challenge alone. This is not merely a matter of securing financing. It will be indispensable to mobilize technical assistance, specialized teams, field hospitals, temporary infrastructure, fast-access credit, and international coordination mechanisms. International cooperation will cease to be a mere complement and will become a necessary condition for recovery.

There’s some good news, however: for the first time in many years, the conditions exist for such cooperation to be possible. The reestablishment of relations with international financial institutions opens a window that until a few months ago seemed firmly shut. It would be a mistake to turn this aid into a new battleground for political confrontation. Countries do not need speeches on sovereignty after an earthquake. They need engineers, heavy machinery, hospitals, drinking water, electricity, and the capacity to rebuild.

The country needs to design a roadmap to achieve broad political agreements, leading to a democratically elected government able to drive the necessary reforms.

Economic history demonstrates that major disasters can become turning points. Some countries seized these tragedies to modernize their infrastructure, strengthen their institutions, and build more resilient economies. Others remained trapped for decades in a cycle of destruction and precariousness. The difference was never solely the magnitude of the earthquake, but the quality of the collective response.

Beyond the immediate emergency, this tragedy also leaves a political lesson that is impossible to ignore. The reconstruction of Venezuela demands more than financial resources or international assistance. It requires leadership with democratic legitimacy and the capacity to build consensus. The country needs to design a roadmap to achieve broad political agreements, leading to a democratically elected government and providing it with the necessary backing to drive the economic and institutional reforms that recovery demands. No reconstruction program will be sustainable unless it rests upon legitimate institutions, clear rules, and a political pact that offers stability, generates trust, and allows for the mobilization of support from the international community and private investment.

That is why I believe this earthquake has not only moved the earth. It shifted Venezuela’s economic horizon. The projections we made just a week ago likely no longer describe the country we will have at the close of this year. The Venezuelan economy has just entered a new phase, and the speed with which we manage to combine the efforts of the State, the proven capacity of the private sector and civil society, and the decisive support of the international community will determine not only the economic performance of 2026, but the real possibilities for recovery over the next decade.

At least 920 people are confirmed dead and more than 51,000 missing after two earthquakes struck Venezuela on Wednesday.

Rescuers are racing against time in Venezuela, three days after two powerful earthquakes struck, with at least 920 people confirmed dead and more than 51,000 still missing.

The twin, magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 quakes hit on Wednesday, devastating the coastal area around La Guaira, where authorities moved on Friday night to restrict access as traffic chaos began to hamper search efforts.

With a scarcity of government rescue teams, Venezuelans have become desperate in the hardest-hit areas, digging through rubble with their hands, with aid agencies warning the critical 72-hour survival window is closing fast.

Officials said anyone who wants to enter the area around La Guaira would now have to seek official permits, but provided few details of who would be allowed in.

People reported seeing few state rescue teams in the hardest-hit areas, despite authorities projecting an image of a robust government response.

“Each person saved is a miracle,” said Jorge Rodriguez, president of the National Assembly.

“We are not going to hide absolutely anything about the magnitude of this tragedy.”

Government forces distributed food and water to survivors in La Guaira, and Acting President Delcy Rodriguez said her government was mounting a full response during these “critical hours for rescuing people alive”.

She welcomed the arrival of international rescuers and humanitarian aid.

Rodriguez said La Guaira had been “militarised” and more help was on the way, even as residents said it was just a fraction of what they needed.

Rodriguez, the former vice president, took office in January after the United States captured and removed then-President Nicolas Maduro.

Venezuela has been facing economic disarray for more than a decade, and many people reject the legitimacy of the political movement Rodriguez represents.

‘People are still terrified to re-enter what were their homes’

The number of dead was expected to climb, as people reported tens of thousands of missing on independent digital databases.

Those figures likely included people who have been incommunicado due to the lack of phone signals, and some reports may be duplicates.

The number of injured was more than 3,300 as of midday Friday, and authorities said they had rescued 243 people.

The International Organization for Migration said up to 6.76 million people could be affected, some two million of them in Caracas alone.

The destruction was amplified by the quick succession of shallow quakes, experts said.

Loyce Pace, the International Red Cross regional director for the Americas, said “people are still terrified to re-enter what were their homes.”

Venezuelan authorities said 861 volunteers from Mexico, the US, El Salvador, Switzerland, Colombia and beyond were in the country, and more were coming from elsewhere.

Rescue workers in one Caracas neighbourhood say no help has arrived, two days after twin quakes tore through the city. Al Jazeera’s Noris Soto says aftershocks are making the search for survivors harder and rescue efforts are turning to the recovery of bodies.

Families are sharing details about their loved ones online as more than 50,000 people remain missing after two devastating earthquakes hit Venezuela on Wednesday night. Rescue teams and local residents are still digging through the rubble on Friday, hoping to find survivors.

Jorge Rodríguez, the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, said 250 buildings had been damaged or lost, mostly in La Guaira.

Photos and videos showed debris strewn on the streets. In some footage, people can be heard calling for help.

The BBC has verified footage of a 10-storey hotel reduced to rubble in La Guaira, and another video that recorded people screaming and fleeing as a multi-storey collapses in El Junquito, west of Caracas.

Other verified footage shows destruction further from the capital. One video shows a multi-storey building, reportedly a hotel, totally collapsed in Tucacas, on Venezuela’s coast, about 250km (155 miles) northwest of Caracas.

Mayor Gustavo Duque of Chacao, which forms part of the greater metropolitan area of Caracas, said on Thursday outside the rubble of one collapsed building that 11 people had died there and 23 had been rescued.

In an Instagram video, he said the team was trying to clear the rubble so that specialists could go in “to reach people who are hopefully still alive”.

“We’re trying to rescue as many people alive as possible,” he said.

Fuel supplies into the city have been cut off and internet blackouts have also been reported.

As two powerful earthquakes hit Venezuela, west of Caracas, in quick succession on Wednesday, the country’s capital sustained extensive damage.

Authorities were continuing to search for people under the rubble of collapsed buildings on Friday as 235 people were confirmed to have been killed, with 4,300 more injured.

Here is more about why Caracas has sustained so much damage.

How badly damaged is Caracas?

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck about 160km (100 miles) west of Caracas, followed less than a minute later by a magnitude 7.5 tremor, the strongest since 1900, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).

Jorge Rodriguez, head of Venezuela’s national assembly and brother of interim President Delcy Rodriguez, said earlier in the day that 200 people had been trapped, with 250 buildings damaged or destroyed nationwide.

In Caracas and nearby coastal areas, at least eight hospitals, the headquarters of the Venezuelan Red Cross and the French embassy were among buildings reported to have been badly damaged.

Initial assessments released on Thursday put the estimated economic damage at between 1 and 7 percent of Venezuela’s $111bn gross domestic product (GDP). Authorities have not yet provided a separate estimate for losses in the capital.

However, the heaviest damage has been reported in Caracas itself, Al Jazeera’s Teresa Bo, reporting from Bogota in neighbouring Colombia, said on Thursday.

Public infrastructure was also heavily damaged, with acting President Rodriguez reporting power outages in Caracas.

Health Minister Carlos Alvarado said late on Thursday that 235 people had been confirmed dead at medical centres across Venezuela. He also told state media that about 4,300 people had been reported injured so far. Hundreds more are feared trapped or missing under the rubble.

How badly has the city been damaged in previous earthquakes?

This is not the first time Caracas has suffered heavy damage in an earthquake.

In 1812, a powerful earthquake roiled the cities of Merida and Caracas, killing about 30,000 people, according to the USGS. The tremors caused near-total destruction of Caracas’s colonial architecture, flattening homes, churches and public institutions.

In 1967, another earthquake hit the city, causing several high-rise buildings to collapse and killing 240 people.

Why has Caracas been so hard-hit?

Venezuela has a long history of devastating earthquakes because it is located along the boundary between the Caribbean and South American tectonic plates.

Caracas is also in a deep sedimentary basin, which amplifies the seismic waves from earthquakes, Vashan Wright, a geophysicist at the University of California in San Diego, told Al Jazeera.

Another reason Caracas is so vulnerable to damage from earthquakes is that its buildings and infrastructure are not specifically designed to withstand tremors and are often standing on insecure ground.

Al Jazeera’s Teresa Bo said the heaviest damage in Caracas occurred in the Altamira district, where emergency crews pulled survivors from the rubble of a 22-storey building while relatives searched for missing family members. Officials said they are still assessing the full extent of the destruction.

“For example, in the [hard-hit] area of Altamira in Caracas, many of the buildings that collapsed are built on sediments, and this makes them much more vulnerable to seismic waves,” Bo said.

“Also, there’s lots of informal housing in several areas across the country, and those types of buildings are not prepared to sustain very strong earthquakes,” she added.

Adequate urban planning and building codes, which incorporate seismic activity, require substantial funding, which Venezuela can ill afford as it has long been subject to heavy sanctions from the United States and other Western countries.

While some sanctions have been lifted since the US abducted former President Nicolas Maduro in a military strike on Caracas in January and he was replaced by Rodriguez, Caracas is still grappling with the effects of decades of underinvestment.

Another issue for Caracas is that at about 7.8km, the earthquakes were shallow, which means they were more destructive than deeper quakes of the same magnitude would have been.

In deeper earthquakes, much of the energy dissipates as it moves through layers of rock. By contrast, shallow ones release their energy closer to the ground, producing stronger shaking and greater damage in populated areas.

How many people live in informal housing in Caracas?

People living in informal housing are more at risk than others during earthquakes because low-cost, self-built housing structures, often built on hillsides and other slopes, are not resilient against tremors.

The slums in Caracas are known as barrios and are densely populated, lacking proper infrastructure. They comprise self-constructed housing or structures built with unreinforced cinderblocks or bricks, often without formal foundations or steel reinforcement, mostly on the mountainous hillsides surrounding the capital.

The lack of proper urban planning, coupled with construction on steep slopes, makes the barrios vulnerable to natural disasters.

While there is no official figure for the number of Venezuelans living in informal settlements in Caracas, academic estimates suggest they account for 40 to 50 percent of the city’s nearly five million residents.

According to the latest National Survey of Living Conditions (ENCOVI), about 55 percent of Venezuelans are living in poverty.

Which countries are better prepared for earthquakes?

Many parts of the world have adapted infrastructure with seismic engineering. Many earthquake-prone countries now plan and construct buildings with damage mitigation from tremors in mind.

Japan, one of the most quake-prone nations in the world, has strict building codes, which means many structures survive shaking that would devastate poorly built homes in parts of Indonesia or Central America. In most inland earthquakes, the majority of deaths and injuries are caused when poorly built structures collapse rather than by the shaking itself.

Japan has made enormous public investments in seismic research and has superior access to advanced engineering technologies like base isolation, which involves the installation of massive steel or rubber shock absorbers beneath the foundations of buildings.

This is why global deaths and destruction from earthquakes have reduced in the past decades. For instance, in 1556, the deadliest earthquake in recorded history in China’s Shaanxi killed about 830,000 people. In 2023, an earthquake hit northwestern China near the Shaanxi province, killing 127 people.

The UN says it is scaling up its response after twin earthquakes devastated Venezuela, warning the disaster will deepen an already severe humanitarian crisis. Speaking to Al Jazeera, UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said hundreds of UN staff are supporting the response, adding that recovery efforts are expected to continue for months.

Reporting from Caracas for Al Jazeera, Noris Soto says authorities appear to lack a clear response plan in the aftermath of two powerful earthquakes. The recovery is being hampered by severe damage to communication systems, as displaced residents are housed in hotels.

Condolences and offers of help have been pouring in from countries around the world following back-to-back powerful earthquakes in Venezuela that have killed at least 32 people.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) said on Thursday that the first earthquake, measuring magnitude 7.2, struck west of Moron, about 168km (104 miles) west of Caracas. A second tremor of magnitude 7.5 hit near the same area just a minute later. The USGS warned that “high casualties and extensive damage are probable” and that the “disaster is likely widespread”.

Acting President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency and said the Simon Bolivar International Airport in Caracas is closed due to damage.

Here’s how countries have reacted:

Argentina

The presidency issued a statement expressing “its deepest solidarity” with the Venezuelan people. It said President Javier Milei “extends his hand in solidarity” amid the natural disaster, “despite any differences that may exist between our governments”.

Bolivia

President Rodrigo Paz said that the people’s “hearts go out to the affected families” in Venezuela, and that the country “remains vigilant and ready to provide any necessary support”.

Brazil

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he has instructed the Foreign Ministry and the embassy in Caracas to evaluate what assistance Brazil can provide.

Colombia 

The country’s District Institute of Risk Management and Climate Change says it has activated its emergency response team and reached out to Venezuelan authorities to “coordinate the necessary technical and operational support”.

“The goal is to provide all necessary assistance and make our teams available to support this situation,” the disaster response agency said in a post on X.

“We also want to reassure the residents of Bogota: following the earthquake felt in the capital, no damage or structural damage has been reported. The city is operating normally.”

Cuba

Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez says Cuban health workers in Venezuela “are fully mobilised and providing medical services to the affected population”.

In a post on X, Rodriguez expressed his “deepest condolences and solidarity to the government and brotherly people of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela for the loss of life and damage caused by the earthquake”.

Ecuador

President Daniel Noboa has announced Ecuador is rapidly deploying humanitarian assistance to Caracas.

“I have arranged for the immediate sending of humanitarian aid to address this emergency,” he posted on X. “Ecuador will respond with the speed and commitment that this moment demands because, despite the enormous differences, humanity must always guide the actions of a leader.”

El Salvador 

President Nayib Bukele has said his country has offered Venezuela assistance through its Foreign Ministry.

“300 rescuers and paramedics, along with 50 tonnes of equipment, medicines, and essential supplies, are ready to depart for Caracas,” Bukele said in a post on X.

Italy

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni wrote on X that she is following the situation with “deep concern” and working to “promptly activate every channel of humanitarian aid and assistance to our compatriots”.

Mexico

The Foreign Ministry has extended its sympathies to the Venezuelan people and expressed its regret at the “damages and impacts caused”.

Panama

President Jose Raul Mulino is the latest foreign leader to respond to the crisis in Venezuela.

In a post on X, Mulino conveyed Panama’s “deepest solidarity and support” to Venezuela, while offering to send humanitarian aid.

Pakistan

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he was “deeply saddened by the devastation and loss of life caused by the earthquakes in Venezuela”.

“On behalf of the people of Pakistan, I convey our heartfelt condolences to the Government and people of Venezuela, especially the families of the victims. We pray for the injured and stand in solidarity with all those affected during this difficult and challenging time,” he said on X.

Spain

The prime minister and foreign minister expressed solidarity with Venezuela and offered help.

“All my support, and that of Spain, to the Venezuelan people following the devastating earthquakes of this evening,” Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez wrote on X.

“Our thoughts are with the victims and their families.”

Jose Manuel Albares, the foreign minister, said the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation “is prepared to provide all necessary emergency assistance”.

“My full solidarity with the brotherly people of Venezuela,” he wrote.

Uruguay 

Uruguay’s president, Yamandu Orsi, expressed solidarity with Venezuelan authorities and citizens. He said Uruguay is ready “to collaborate in any way the Venezuelan government deems necessary”.

United States 

President Donald Trump posted a message on his Truth Social account, expressing concern over the disaster in Venezuela.

Trump said the earthquakes were “massive in scale and have left a devastating number of deaths”. The US “stands ready, willing, and able to help,” and US government agencies have been instructed “to get ready to move quickly,” he said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X that the US was “immediately deploying” search and rescue teams, medical resources and humanitarian assistance.

Two powerful earthquakes have struck northern Venezuela, killing dozens of people, injuring hundreds and destroying homes and infrastructure. These images show the damage, rescue efforts and grief in the affected communities.

June 24 (UPI) — Two major earthquakes — magnitudes 7.2 and 7.5 — hit near the Venezuela capital of Caracas on Wednesday evening, collapsing buildings and bringing people flooding into the streets.

The first quake hit at 6:04 p.m. local time, BBC News reported, with the second less than a minute later. June 24 is a holiday in Venezuela, and more people than usual were at home instead of on an evening commute.

The earthquakes’ center was about 17 miles northwest of Montalbán, home to some of the country’s largest refineries, CNN said.

The U.S. Geological Survey has reported that high casualties and widespread damage are likely, saying that there is a 44% chance that fatalities will exceed 10,000 and a 30% chance that they will exceed 100,000. The USGS said aftershocks may still occur.

Venezuela’s interior minister has asked people to leave their homes, citing damaged buildings and concerns about gas leaks. Companies cut gas lines to some areas as a precaution, Minister Diosdado Cabello said, BBC News reported.

The Ministry of Communication and Information in Venezuela said security forces have been deployed around the country because of the risk of building collapses.

A magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit Venezuela near the city of Moron, followed by a stronger magnitude 7.5 quake in the same area.

An offshore earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 has struck the southern Philippines, killing at least 35 people and injuring more than 200.

The quake on Monday is the strongest to hit the country this year, according to Teresito Bacolcol, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology.

Several low-rise buildings collapsed or sustained heavy damage in the hard-hit city of General Santos.

Tsunami damage was reported in at least one southern coastal village, while smaller waves were recorded in Indonesia, Palau and as far away as southern Japan.

The quake also triggered a landslide in Glan, a municipality in the province of Sarangani, that killed 13 villagers, provincial disaster-mitigation official Rene Punzalan told the DZBB radio network. Four other villagers died in Sarangani, he added.

The United States, an ally of the Philippines, said it was coordinating with Manila and was ready to support Philippine response efforts. France, Japan and New Zealand also expressed support.

The epicentre was offshore near Mindanao, the second most populous island in the Philippine archipelago. Bacolcol said the quake struck at a depth of 33km (20 miles), about 32km (20 miles) southwest of Maasim town in Sarangani province.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr ordered the cancellation of classes and directed disaster-response agencies to immediately get to work in quake-hit provinces, saying “the national government is moving and we will not leave Mindanao behind”.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said the threat of a tsunami had largely passed about five hours after the quake. Philippine officials also lifted a tsunami warning by mid-afternoon. Six shanties on stilts were damaged in a coastal village in Zamboanga del Sur province due to the quake and higher waves, officials said.

Aside from the Sarangani landslide, most of the other deaths were caused by collapsing buildings and falling debris, including in a damaged mosque, in the southern provinces of South Cotabato and Davao Occidental and on Balut Island, according to disaster-mitigation official Ednar Dayanghirang.

The Philippines frequently experiences earthquakes and volcanic eruptions because it lies on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” an arc of seismic faults encircling the ocean.

Tsunami warnings have been issued across Asia following an 8.2 magnitude earthquake off the Philippines.

Authorities in Indonesia, Philippines and Japan early on Monday issued warnings of tsunami waves following the powerful quake.

The quake struck off the island of Mindanao shortly before 7:40 am local time, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The US government agency advised people in affected areas to get out of the water and move away from beaches and harbours.

More to follow…

Ousseni Bouda scored two goals in the second half, ending LAFC goalie Hugo Lloris’ scoreless run to begin the season at 593 minutes, and the San José Earthquakes stunned LAFC 4-1 on Sunday night in an early Western Conference showdown.

San José (7-1-0) moves into a first-place tie with the Vancouver Whitecaps in the Western Conference and Supporters’ Shield races in the Earthquakes’ second season under head coach Bruce Arena.

Daniel De Sousa Britto missed a chance to tie Lloris with a sixth clean sheet on an own goal by Reid Roberts in the 74th minute. He had three saves.

Bouda used assists from newcomer Timo Werner — his third — and Beau Leroux to find the net in the 53rd minute after a scoreless first half.

Werner, sidelined the last two weeks with a lower-body injury, took a pass from Leroux three minutes later and scored his first MLS goal for a 2-0 lead. Leroux’s assists gives him four, matching his total last season in 33 appearances as a rookie.

An own goal on Ryan Porteous in the 59th minute made it 3-0 in a span of six minutes.

Bouda’s fourth goal of the season capped the scoring in the 80th minute. Niko Tsakiris notched his career-high fifth assist.

Lloris finished with two saves in a second straight loss for LAFC (5-2-1), third in the West. Lloris sat out a 2-1 road loss to the Portland Timbers.

San José has won all four of its road matches.

LAFC was 6-0-1 at BMO Stadium in all competitions entering play, outscoring its opponents 17-1.