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Markets face a sobering Monday after weekend optimism over a peace talks breakthrough faded. Investors are bracing for a high-impact week shaped by geopolitics, inflation data and the start of earnings season.

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Oil prices resumed their climb, with international benchmark Brent crude and the US benchmark WTI trading above $100 a barrel. On Monday morning in Europe, Brent front-month futures were up 7%, trading at nearly $102 a barrel, while WTI gained nearly 8% and surged to $104.

This comes as the US military prepares to blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, where much of the shipping has been disrupted by Iran since the start of the war.

US President Donald Trump announced the planned blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without agreement. The military said the blockade covering all Iranian ports would begin Monday at 10 am CET (5:30 pm local time in Iran).

Oil prices have been climbing as shipping through the Strait has essentially stalled since late February. Brent crude has risen from roughly $70 a barrel before the war to more than $119 at times.

“Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning,” a Deutsche Bank Research analysts said in a note, adding that “the mood has shifted negatively once again.

“Oil prices have revived fears of a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground globally.

Hungarian election and the forint

The Hungarian forint took the spotlight in currency trading after Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party won a landslide election, ending the 16-year rule of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.

The euro was trading at 366.18 forints before European markets opened on Monday, a sharp drop from 377.56 late Sunday. The Hungarian stock index rose 2.85% on Monday morning, bucking the negative sentiment weighing on markets across the bloc.

Investors see Magyar’s Tisza Party pushing Hungary in a more pro-EU direction, with a higher likelihood of restoring rule-of-law alignment and closer cooperation with Brussels.

Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro weakened against the dollar to $1.1692 in European morning trading. The British pound also fell against the dollar, down 0.3% at $1.3416.

Stock markets face a turbulent session

Stock markets in Europe opened in negative territory, with London’s FTSE 100 opening down 0.4%, the DAX in Frankfurt falling 1%, and Paris’s CAC 40 down nearly 0.9%.

Stock markets were also down in Asia on Monday. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 1.0% in morning trading to 56,357.40. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.5% to 8,913.50. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 1.1% to 5,795.15. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped nearly 1.5% to 25,513.42, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to 3,976.57.

Analysts said global trading was expected to remain turbulent for some time.

“The outcome of the talks was not really what people were hoping for, that’s for certain,” Neil Newman, Managing Director and Head of Strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said in Hong Kong.

“As we stand here at the moment, it doesn’t look very nice. Certainly, the oil prices are a big concern.”

Wall Street ended last week with a second weekly gain in a row. The S&P 500 inched 0.1% lower on Friday after a day of choppy trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%. But those gains came amid optimism over weekend peace talks in Pakistan that was later shattered by subsequent developments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.32% last Friday from 4.29% late Thursday.

In currency trading, the US dollar gained to 159.74 Japanese yen from 159.25 yen. The euro cost $1.1687, down from $1.1729.

What markets are watching this week

Markets are entering a busy week, with all eyes still on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications of the Iran conflict.

In the US, investors are watching the first major wave of corporate earnings reports, including those of big banks and tech companies, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, ASML and TSMC reporting this week.

This is set against a backdrop of key US inflation and producer price data, as well as jobless claims. These figures are critical for gauging whether the Federal Reserve is moving closer to rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington begin this week.

The latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF, out on Tuesday, will also be of interest, and could offer further insight into how these institutions are assessing the global economy’s resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In Europe, investors are focused on PMI and industrial activity data, which will provide insight into whether the eurozone economy is stabilising or still struggling with weak demand.

President Donald Trump is considering renewed military action against Iran, including limited strikes, following the breakdown of negotiations in Pakistan, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, citing officials familiar with the discussions.

A broader bombing campaign remains an option but

April 12 (UPI) — President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy will block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iran’s shipping lanes after peace talks in Pakistan failed to produce a deal.

Vice President J.D. Vance, who Trump sent to negotiate a deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, said Saturday that the talks were not successful because the two sides cannot agree on what to do about the Iranian nuclear stockpile and who will control the Strait, CNN and The Washington Post reported.

Trump told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo that the United States was going to block the Strait — it will “take a little while, but it’ll be effective pretty soon,” he said — and that nations in the Gulf region have agreed to help in the effort.

The blockade, he said, will prevent “any and all ships” from entering or leaving the the waterway, including vessels belonging to Iran, which have been shipping its oil to other countries and reportedly been bringing weapons parts from China to the Middle Eastern nation.

Vance told reporters early Sunday morning that while Iran had not yet accepted the United States’ “final and best offer,” he expressed optimism that a deal can be reached.

“We just could not get to a situation where the Iranians were willing to accept our terms,” Vance said. “I think that we were quite flexible.”

In a post on X, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is Iran’s leading negotiator in the talks, said that he and his colleagues had “raised forward looking initiatives, but the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations.”

“Before the negotiations, I emphasized that we have the necessary good faith and will, but due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no trust in the opposing side,” he said.

“If there’s one thing we’ve learned about President Trump, particularly in this term, it also applies to his first term, you have to draw a distinction between what he says and how he says it, particularly on social media, and what he does,” Streeting said.

US Vice President JD Vance is leaving Pakistan after 21 hours of talks with Iran, saying Tehran chose not to accept their ‘final and best offer’. Here’s his full press conference in Islamabad.

US President Donald Trump says ‘we win regardless of what happens’ in Iran talks. His comments outside the White House came as US and Iranian delegations continue negotiating late into the night in Islamabad.

The Strait of Hormuz is believed to be a key sticking point as Iran and the US continue negotiations in the Pakistani capital.

April 11 (UPI) — Talks between the United States and Iran began Saturday morning between the two delegations in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Vice President JD Vance arrived at 10:30 a.m. PKT. At Nur Khan air base, Vance walked down a red carpet and met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Sharif said Friday that the United States is at a “make or break” moment in a national address Friday.

It’s not clear if the talks are direct or indirect, but CNN reported the talks are a mixture of both.

Though there was heavy security, with road closures and checkpoints, the mood in Pakistan was jubilant, The Washington Post reported.

Both sides have repeatedly accused the other of violating the fragile cease-fire that began last week. The United States has said Iran is violating the agreement because the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Only two ships passed through it on Friday, The New York Times reported. Iran is angry that Israel continues to attack Lebanon, though Israel and the United States say they never agreed to stop fighting in Lebanon.

Israel has hit more than 200 targets in Lebanon affiliated with Hezbollah in the past 24 hours, The Times reported the Israeli military said.

Iran can’t find all the mines it set in the strait, The Times reported that U.S. officials said Friday, causing a snarl in Iran’s ability to comply with American demands.

Saturday morning, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States is “clearing out” the strait.

“We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves. Very interestingly, however, empty Oil carrying ships from many Nations are all heading to the United States of America to LOAD UP with Oil.”

He didn’t clarify what “clearing out” of the strait means.

On Friday, he said that Iranians must negotiate.

“The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

The U.S. delegation includes envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Iranian side has more than a dozen senior officials, including Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with senior security officials and Iran’s central bank governor, The Post reported.

Both sides seem motivated to see the war come to an end, but they remain at odds on several issues. Control of the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, Iran’s enriched uranium and withdrawal of the U.S. military in the region are some of the sticking points.

ISLAMABAD — The United States and Iran began face-to-face negotiations Saturday in Pakistan, days after a fragile, two-week ceasefire was announced, as the war that has killed thousands of people and shaken global markets entered its seventh week.

The White House confirmed the direct nature of the talks, a rare instance of high-level U.S. government engagement with the Iranian government.

Iran’s state-run news agency said three-party talks including Pakistan had begun after Iranian preconditions, including a reduction in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon, were met, and after U.S. and Iranian officials met separately with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

The U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance and the Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf were discussing how to advance the ceasefire already threatened by deep disagreements and Israel’s continued attacks against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the most direct U.S. contact had been in September 2013 when President Obama called newly elected President Hassan Rouhani to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. The recent highest-level meetings were between Secretary of State John Kerry and counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif during negotiations over the program.

Iran sets ‘red lines’ including compensation for strikes

Iran doubled down on parts of its earlier proposal, with its delegation telling Iranian state television it had presented some of the plan’s ideas as “red lines” in meetings with Sharif. Those included compensation for damage caused by the U.S.-Israeli strikes that launched the war on Feb. 28 and releasing Iran’s frozen assets.

The war has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, 1,953 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, and caused lasting damage to infrastructure in half a dozen Middle Eastern countries. Iran’s chokehold on the vital Strait of Hormuz has largely cut off the Persian Gulf and its oil and gas exports from the global economy, sending energy prices soaring.

Reflecting the high stakes, officials from the region said Chinese, Egyptian, Saudi and Qatari officials were in Islamabad to indirectly facilitate the talks. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.

In Tehran, residents told the Associated Press they were skeptical yet hopeful about the talks after weeks of airstrikes left destruction across their country of some 93 million people. Some said the path to recovery would be long.

“Peace alone is not enough for our country, because we’ve been hit very hard, there have been huge costs,” 62-year-old Amir Razzai Far said.

Meanwhile, Israel pressed ahead with strikes in Lebanon after saying there is no ceasefire there. Iran and Pakistan have disagreed. The Lebanese state-run news agency reported at least three people killed.

Officials posture over key issues ahead of talks

Ahead of the talks, President Trump accused Iran of using the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy supplies, for extortion, and told reporters Friday it would be opened “with or without them.”

Iran’s closure of the strait has proved its biggest strategic advantage in the war. Around a fifth of the world’s traded oil had typically passed through on over 100 ships a day. Only 12 have been recorded transiting since the ceasefire.

Iran has floated the idea of charging ships, though the idea has been widely rejected by countries including the United States and Iran’s neighbor Oman.

On Saturday, Trump said on social media that the U.S. had begun “clearing out” the strait, but it was unclear whether he was referring to the reported use of mines there or Iran’s broader ability to control the area.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had said Tehran was entering negotiations with “deep distrust” after strikes on Iran during previous rounds of talks. Araghchi, part of Iran’s delegation in Pakistan, said Saturday that his country was prepared to retaliate if attacked again.

Iran and the United States outlined competing proposals ahead of the talks.

Iran’s 10-point proposal called for a guaranteed end to the war and sought control over the Strait of Hormuz. It included ending fighting against Iran’s “regional allies,” explicitly calling for a halt to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah.

The United States’ 15-point proposal includes restricting Iran’s nuclear program and reopening the strait.

Israel and Lebanon will have direct negotiations

Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are expected to begin Tuesday in Washington, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s office said Friday, after Israel’s surprise announcement authorizing talks despite the countries lack of official relations.

Israel wants the Lebanese government to assume responsibility for disarming Hezbollah, much like was envisaged in a November 2024 ceasefire. But it is unclear whether Lebanon’s army can confiscate weapons from the militant group, which has survived efforts to curb its strength for decades.

Israel’s insistence that the ceasefire in Iran does not include a pause in its fighting with Hezbollah has threatened to sink the deal. The militant group joined the war in support of Iran in the opening days. Israel followed up with airstrikes and a ground invasion.

The day the Iran ceasefire deal was announced, Israel pounded Beirut with airstrikes, killing more than 300 people in the deadliest day in Lebanon since the war began, according to the country’s Health Ministry.

Energy pressures grow

The spot price of Brent crude, the international standard for oil prices, was above $94 on Saturday, up more than 30% since the war started.

And new pressures emerged in Europe for travelers.

The head of Airports Council International-Europe, Olivier Jankovec, warned the European Union that a ″systemic jet fuel shortage’’ could come within three weeks because of the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Jankovec said in a letter obtained by the Associated Press that the crunch could impact the summer travel season and ″significantly harm the European economy.’′

Ahmed, Metz, Castillo and Magdy write for the Associated Press. Metz reported from Jerusalem, Castillo from Beijing and Magdy from Cairo. Associated Press writer Josh Boak contributed to this report.

With US and Iranian officials set to meet in Pakistan on a deal to end the war, Al Jazeera’s James Bays outlines some of the sticking points ahead.

US Vice President JD Vance and officials Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have met Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad ahead of possible direct talks with Iran. If confirmed, they would be the highest-level in-person talks between the US and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

US Vice President JD Vance has landed in Pakistan for talks with Iranian officials on a deal to end the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Pakistan’s ambassador to the US has told Al Jazeera that weeks of intense diplomatic efforts have led to a shared commitment from all sides to pursue a negotiated settlement, as US-Iran talks are set to begin in Islamabad.

Donald Trump said he is “very optimistic” that a peace agreement with Iran is close, as a diplomatic team led by Vice President JD Vance heads to Pakistan for high-stakes talks this weekend aimed at ending the war. Meanwhile, however, there is no indication that Iran is easing its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has triggered what is reportedly the most severe disruption to global energy supplies on record.

Vance is leading the American delegation, joined by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, both of whom participated in three rounds of indirect nuclear talks with Iranian negotiators in Oman before the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28.

Boarding Air Force Two on his way to the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, the vice president said, “We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s gonna be positive. We’ll of course see.”

Vance also cited Trump, adding: “If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand.”

But he said: “If they’re gonna try and play us, then they’re gonna find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.”

Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said on Friday that two previously agreed conditions — a ceasefire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of Iranian assets — must be fulfilled before any negotiations can begin.

Posting on X, he stated that these steps were part of mutual commitments between the parties and cautioned that talks should not proceed until they are implemented, as disagreements over ceasefire terms and ongoing fighting in Lebanon continue to escalate.

President Trump said that Iran has “no cards,” in a post on social media today.

Writing on Truth Social, he said: “The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short-term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!”

Islamabad, Pakistan – With key differences in the Iranian and American positions seemingly intact, Pakistan is aiming for what officials describe as a realistic – if modest – outcome from the negotiations between the two warring nations set to commence in Islamabad on Saturday.

The aim: to get the United States and Iranian negotiators to find enough common ground to continue talks.

On Friday, US Vice President JD Vance left Washington for Islamabad, where he will lead the American team, which will also consist of President Donald Trump’s chief negotiator Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. While Iran has not formally confirmed its representatives at the talks, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are expected to lead Tehran’s team.

These high-level talks follow days after the US and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire, and will be held exactly six weeks after the US and Israel launched their war on Iran with the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28.

Experts and sources close to the mediation effort said there was little expectation that a major breakthrough would be reached on Saturday. But by setting a more realistic ceiling – an agreement in Islamabad to continue deeper negotiations aimed at finding a lasting peace deal – Pakistan is hopeful it can help build on a truce that led to a collective sigh of relief globally.

“Pakistan has succeeded in getting them together. We got them to sit at a table. Now it is for the parties to decide whether they are willing to make the sacrifices necessary to reach an eventual solution,” Zamir Akram, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United Nations, told Al Jazeera.

Now, he added, it will aim to secure an agreement for the US and Iran to continue dialogue.

The ‘proximity format’

The US and Iranian delegations will land at the Nur Khan airbase outside Islamabad and then drive to the Serena Hotel, where they will stay, and where the talks will be held.

Though the two teams will be in the same hotel, they will not come face to face for the negotiations, officials said.

Instead, they will sit in two separate rooms, with Pakistani officials shuttling messages between them.

In diplomatic jargon, such negotiations are known as proximity talks.

Pakistan’s experience with such a dialogue is not new. In 1988, Islamabad itself participated in the Geneva Accords negotiations on the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, where UN-mediated indirect talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan produced a landmark agreement.

Akram, who has represented Pakistan at the UN in Geneva from 2008 to 2015, said that history was relevant.

“Proximity talks have been used before. Pakistan itself participated in one in Geneva in 1988 on the Afghan issue,” he told Al Jazeera. “If the parties did not trust Pakistan, they would not be here. The metric of success should be an agreement to continue this process in search of a solution. It will not happen in a couple of days.”

Building diplomatic momentum

In the days between the ceasefire announcement on April 7 and the arrival of the delegations in Islamabad, world leaders moved quickly to register support.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the ceasefire and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s role. Kazakhstan, Romania and the United Kingdom also issued statements endorsing Islamabad’s mediation.

French President Emmanuel Macron called Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to congratulate him, while Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also spoke to the Pakistani leader.

Analysts say these calls were not only expressions of goodwill but signals of international backing, aimed at strengthening Pakistan’s hand in pushing both Washington and Tehran to deliver results.

Sharif spoke with eight world leaders, including the emir of Qatar, the presidents of France and Turkiye, the prime ministers of Italy and Lebanon, the king of Bahrain and the chancellors of Germany and Austria.

Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who is also deputy prime minister, engaged with more than a dozen counterparts over the past two days and held an in-person meeting with China’s ambassador in Islamabad.

In total, Pakistan’s leadership made or received more than 25 diplomatic contacts in roughly 48 hours.

Salma Malik, a professor of strategic studies at Quaid-i-Azam University, said the scale of engagement reflected confidence in Pakistan’s role.

“The two main parties showed confidence in Pakistan to act as a neutral agent, that is the first and most critical litmus test for any mediating country, and Pakistan passed it,” she told Al Jazeera.

The Lebanon problem

The most immediate threat to Saturday’s talks lies outside the negotiating room.

Iran has framed Israeli strikes on Lebanon as a direct challenge to the ceasefire. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who spoke to Sharif earlier this week, warned that continued attacks would render negotiations meaningless.

Hours after the ceasefire was announced, Israel launched its most widespread bombardment of Lebanon since the start of the conflict, killing more than 300 people across Beirut and southern Lebanon in a single day.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran could abandon the ceasefire entirely if the strikes continued.

Sharif, in a call with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on April 9, strongly condemned Israel’s actions.

Whether Lebanon is covered by the ceasefire remains contested. Pakistan has maintained that the truce extends across the wider region, including Lebanon, as reflected in Sharif’s statement earlier this week.

Washington has taken a different view. US Vice President JD Vance, who will lead the American delegation, said in Budapest that Lebanon falls outside the ceasefire’s terms, a position echoed by President Donald Trump and the White House.

Seema Baloch, a former Pakistani envoy, said the issue ultimately rests with Washington.

“Lebanon is key and Israel will use it to play the spoiler role,” she told Al Jazeera. “It is now the US decision whether it will allow Israel, which is not seated at the negotiating table, to play that role.”

There are, however, signs of limited de-escalation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that Israel was ready to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible”, focusing on disarming Hezbollah and reaching a peace agreement.

The announcement followed US pressure. Trump told NBC he had asked Netanyahu to “low-key it” on Lebanon.

However, Netanyahu made clear there was no ceasefire in Lebanon, saying Israel would continue striking Hezbollah even as talks proceed.

Salman Bashir, a former Pakistani foreign secretary, said Lebanon remains within the ceasefire’s scope.

“Lebanon is very much part of the ceasefire, as was mentioned in the prime minister’s statement,” he told Al Jazeera. “The Israelis may be inclined to keep the pressure on Lebanon, but not for long if the US is keen on a cessation of hostilities, as it seems.”

Stumbling blocks

Beyond Lebanon, several other obstacles remain.

Washington is expected to push for verifiable restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme, including limits on enrichment and the removal of stockpiled material.

Tehran, in turn, is demanding full sanctions relief, formal recognition of its right to enrich uranium and compensation for wartime damage.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes in peacetime, remains a key pressure point, with Iran retaining the ability to disrupt maritime traffic.

Bashir said there could be movement on some of these issues.

“There may be an opening on the Strait of Hormuz, under Iranian control. Iran will not give up on the right to enrichment. If nothing else, there should be an extension of the ceasefire deadline,” he told Al Jazeera.

Muhammad Shoaib, a professor of international relations in Islamabad, said progress would depend on movement on core issues.

“Both parties agreeing on the need to continue or even extend the ceasefire, while in principle agreeing on crucial points such as the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s right to enrichment and respect for sovereignty, will suggest that the first round is meaningful and successful,” he told Al Jazeera.

The regional atmosphere has also been shaped by sharp rhetoric from some of Iran’s Gulf neighbours.

The United Arab Emirates, which faced hundreds of missile and drone attacks during the conflict, has been among the most vocal.

Its ambassador to Washington wrote in The Wall Street Journal that a ceasefire alone would not be sufficient and called for a comprehensive outcome addressing Iran’s “full range of threats”.

Bahrain, meanwhile, presented a United Nations Security Council resolution on April 7 calling for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The measure received 11 votes in favour but was vetoed by Russia and China, with Pakistan and Colombia abstaining.

Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt are not expected to have a formal presence at the talks, despite being closely involved in pre-negotiation diplomacy. The four countries held meetings in Riyadh and later in Islamabad aimed at securing a pause in hostilities.

Israel, a party to the conflict, will also not be represented. Pakistan, like most Muslim-majority countries, does not recognise Israel and has no diplomatic relations with it.

A slight easing

There are, however, tentative signs of easing tensions ahead of Saturday’s talks.

On Friday, as he was departing from Washington, Vance said that the US team was “looking forward to the negotiations”.

“We think it’s going to be positive. We’ll, of course, see. As the president of the United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we are certainly willing to extend an open hand,” the US vice president said. “If they try to play us, they’re going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive. So we’ll try to have a positive negotiation.”

He also said that Trump had given the US team “some pretty clear guidelines”.

Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister spoke with his Iranian counterpart for the first time since the war started.

And Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said on April 8 that discussions could continue for up to 15 days, suggesting readiness for a prolonged process.

Akram, the former envoy, said the benchmark for success was clear.

“What they need to agree is that they will find a solution, and that in itself would be a step in the right direction,” he told Al Jazeera. “Finding a long-term solution will take time. It will not happen in a couple of days.”

Malik, the academic in Islamabad, said Pakistan’s expectations remained modest.

“What Pakistan expects is breathing space, an opportunity for peace. It is not expecting anything big. It is a small wish, but realising it will be very difficult,” she told Al Jazeera.

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warns ‘time is running out’ amid Israel’s continuing attacks on Lebanon.

WASHINGTON — Pivotal negotiations in Pakistan this weekend between the United States and Iran could hinge on developments in Lebanon, where ongoing Israeli strikes Thursday risked derailing a wider regional ceasefire.

Tensions only deepened amid reports of limited Iranian drone attacks across the region, and as Arab states warned that the Strait of Hormuz — a vital global shipping route — had only partially reopened despite President Trump’s assurances that Tehran had guaranteed full access.

Yet tests of the ceasefire have not deterred Iranian and American officials from their plans to travel to Pakistan on Saturday for the highest-level talks between the two nations, aimed at a final agreement to end the war, now in its sixth week.

The stakes are high for Iran, which has been pummeled by U.S. attacks, and for Trump, whose pursuit of the war has been domestically unpopular. The plan appeared precarious early Thursday, amid ongoing disagreement over whether the ceasefire included Lebanon.

Iran warned that continued Israeli attacks targeting the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon could jeopardize the two-day-old truce. Hours later, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government would open direct negotiations with Lebanon — but subsequently declared he would not cease strikes there.

His move to negotiate with the Lebanese came the day after President Trump asked Netanyahu to slow operations in Lebanon ahead of the Pakistan talks, a source familiar with the matter told The Times. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, told reporters Thursday that the talks starting would be “contingent” upon hostilities ceasing in Lebanon.

As Israel’s posture on Lebanon injected uncertainty into the situation Thursday, the Strait of Hormuz — which Iran agreed to reopen in the ceasefire deal — remained closed, according to Sultan Al Jaber, a government minister in the United Arab Emirates. Traffic through the strait was below 10% of its usual volume Thursday, with only seven ships passing through in a 24-hour period, Reuters reported.

Trump, however, projected optimism Thursday about the weekend negotiations in Islamabad — even as the U.S. position appeared to weaken.

“I spoke with Bibi and he’s going to low-key it. I just think we have to be sort of a little more low-key,” Trump said in an interview with NBC News. He said he was “very optimistic” that a deal with Iran was in reach.

A White House official said Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. delegation, which will also include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. They would be the highest-level talks between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

An Israeli official said the separate talks with Lebanon, to be conducted by the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to Washington, would start next week at the State Department. A State Department official confirmed the agency would host the talks.

Israel is not a direct party to the weekend negotiations in Pakistan between the U.S. and Iran. But “the United States knows our red lines in terms of nuclear disarmament, proxies, ballistic missile production,” the Israeli official said. “We believe we’re on the same page here.”

The Tuesday night ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran came after 39 days of conflict in the region, set off by Trump’s Feb. 28 attack on Iran. The full terms have not been publicly disclosed, and much remains uncertain about the agreement.

The agreement got off to a shaky start Wednesday: The strait remained restricted as the Iranians accused Americans of violating the agreement and it emerged that the U.S. and Israel were at odds with Iran over whether Lebanon was part of the ceasefire.

Trump threatened late Wednesday on his social media website that if Iran did not comply with the ceasefire, “then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”

The deal’s status became even more fragile as Thursday dawned and Iran said Israeli strikes in Lebanon overnight violated the agreement. European leaders and the prime minister of Pakistan, which is brokering U.S.-Iran talks, warned that the operations could be putting the truce at risk.

“This is a dangerous sign of deception and lack of commitment to potential agreements,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Thursday. “The continuation of these actions will render negotiations meaningless.”

The speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned of “explicit costs” for any moves Iran views as violations of the ceasefire, saying Lebanon was an “inseparable part” of the deal.

Israel and the U.S. have said that Lebanon, where Israel says it is targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, was not part of the ceasefire agreement. Netanyahu said in a Thursday evening statement that he was pursuing negotiations at the request of the Lebanese government.

“There is no ceasefire in Lebanon. We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with full force, and we will not stop until we restore your security,” he said.

Also Thursday, House Republicans rebuffed an attempt by Democrats to vote on restricting Trump’s war powers. Democratic leaders — who have raised concerns about Trump’s Easter Sunday threat to wipe out Iranian civilization and said his statement amounted to threatening war crimes — afterward called on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring Congress back to session.

Meanwhile, Trump railed on his social media website against conservative figures who have criticized his approach to the war, including former Fox News hosts Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, calling them “stupid people” and proclaiming that the United States “IS NOW THE ‘HOTTEST’ COUNTRY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD!”

He also continued to attack NATO members for not living up to his expectations in helping him with the war in Iran. In a post earlier Thursday, the president said the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been “very disappointing” and suggested the United States needs to pressure allies in order for them to respond to its needs.

That followed a meeting Wednesday afternoon with NATO Secretary Mark Rutte at the White House, after which Trump asserted online that “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN.”

In an interview with CNN, Rutte said Trump had made his disappointment with NATO allies clear. Rutte said he had emphasized to Trump that a large majority of European nations have given the U.S. some logistical military help, such as allowing American warplanes to land at their bases and fly over their territories.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Israel’s surprise barrage of airstrikes on Wednesday killed 303 people and wounded about 1,150 others, in a preliminary toll. It added that the numbers were likely to rise while search efforts for bodies and DNA testing continue.

If direct negotiations with Israel do take place, they would break a long-standing political taboo for Lebanon. Successive governments have dealt with Israeli diplomats only as far as allowing technical discussions with Lebanese military officials via the United Nations.

The prospect of direct negotiations is likely to kick up fierce opposition from Hezbollah and its political ally, the Lebanese Shiite party Amal.

Both parties — which together form the so-called Shiite Duo, are part of a voting bloc in parliament and hold important portfolios in Lebanon’s Cabinet — are already in a war of wills with the Lebanese government, which recently declared the Iranian ambassador-designate persona non grata and ordered his departure.

Amal and Hezbollah officials told the ambassador-designate to remain in Lebanon and exhorted the government to reverse its decision. He remains at the embassy in Beirut.

McDaniel and Wilner reported from Washington and Bulos from Amman, Jordan. Times staff writer Ana Ceballos in Washington contributed to this report.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his government is ready to hold direct talks with Lebanon, a day after Israeli attacks on its northern neighbour killed hundreds of people on the deadliest day of the ongoing round of fighting.

“In light of Lebanon’s repeated requests to open direct negotiations with ⁠Israel, I instructed ⁠the cabinet yesterday to start direct negotiations with Lebanon ⁠as soon as ⁠possible,” Netanyahu’s office wrote ⁠in a statement on Thursday.

“The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah ‌and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and ‌Lebanon.”

The statement comes a day after Israeli attacks across Lebanon killed more than 300 people in a series of devastating strikes that have threatened to undermine a United States-Iran ceasefire.

Israel and the US have said Lebanon was not included in the US-Iran two-week truce, which aims to allow for negotiations on ending their more than monthlong war. Iran and mediator Pakistan have said Lebanon was included in the ceasefire, and several international leaders have called for Lebanon to be included.

Shortly before Netanyahu’s surprise announcement about potential talks, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said he ⁠was working on a diplomatic track on this matter that was starting to be seen “positively” by international actors.

And Lebanon’s cabinet instructed security forces to restrict weapons in Beirut exclusively to state institutions, in a warning to the armed group Hezbollah.

“The army and security forces are requested to immediately begin reinforcing the full imposition of state authority over Beirut Governorate and to monopolise weapons in the hands of legitimate authorities alone,” Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said at the end of a cabinet meeting.

Attacks on Hezbollah

Hours before opening the way for talks with Lebanon, Netanyahu said Israel would continue striking Hezbollah “with force, precision and determination”.

Lebanon’s health ministry said at least 303 people were killed and more than 1,000 wounded on Wednesday in Israeli strikes in central Beirut and other areas of Lebanon, with Salam declaring Thursday a “national day of mourning”.

But Israel continued its bombardment overnight and into Thursday, saying it killed Ali Yusuf Harshi, an aide to Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem. There was no immediate comment from the Lebanese armed group.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported on Thursday that the Israeli army targeted the centre of Bint Jbeil city with heavy artillery shelling.

At the same time, Hezbollah has announced at least 20 operations against Israel and said it had targeted Israeli vehicles on Lebanese territory.

Reporting from Beirut, Al Jazeera’s Malcolm Webb said the Israeli army had issued new forced evacuation orders for the capital’s southern suburbs in advance of an attack.

“[This is an] area where thousands of people had initially fled, so this will force people to be on the move once again, looking yet again for somewhere safe to go to avoid the kind of destruction we can see here at one of the sites in central Beirut that was hit just over 24 hours ago in that wave of bombings across the city,” Webb said.

Since the ongoing Israel-Lebanon conflict began on March 2, Israel has issued evacuation orders for about 15 percent of Lebanese territory, displacing more than 1.2 million people, according to the United Nations. Israeli attacks have killed at least 1,888 people and wounded more than 6,000 others, according to Lebanese health authorities.

Ceasefire deal

As Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon, concerns are growing about the effect it could have on the originally fragile deal.

Since Wednesday, Iran has argued that attacks in Lebanon violate the ceasefire deal, with President Masoud Pezeshkian saying on Thursday that Israeli strikes on Lebanon would render negotiations meaningless, adding that Iran would not abandon the Lebanese people.

However, the US has said Lebanon is not covered by the truce, despite Pakistan, which acted as mediator, saying it was part of the deal.

Other countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Russia and Turkiye, have said the truce should extend to Lebanon.

Delegations from the US and Iran are expected to meet in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Saturday for talks on ending the war.

Tehran says the negotiations will be based on its 10-point proposal, which calls for control over Strait of Hormuz and lifting of all sanctions.

Iran has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with the United States, with its National Security Council saying talks with Washington will begin in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Friday, based on Tehran’s 10-point proposal.

The statement on Wednesday came after US President Donald Trump said he was calling off a threat to end Iranian civilisation and “suspend” attacks on the country for two weeks.

Trump said the truce was contingent on Iran agreeing to the “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea and through which a fifth of the global oil supply passes.

Iran’s partial blockade of the strait – imposed in the aftermath of the US and Israel’s attacks on February 28 – has disrupted global trade, driving up oil prices and causing fuel shortages across the world.

Iran’s retaliatory attacks have also reverberated across the Gulf and drawn in Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, both of which have launched attacks on Israel, significantly widening the conflict.

Trump said in his Truth Social statement that the US has received a 10-point proposal from Iran, “and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate”.

He said the US and Iran have agreed on “almost all of the various points of contention” and that the two-week period will allow the agreement to be “finalised and consummated”.

Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi, speaking on behalf of the Iranian National Security Council, confirmed Tehran’s decision to halt the fighting.

“If attacks against Iran are halted, our powerful armed forces will cease their defensive operations,” he said in a post on X.

Araghchi said that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible in coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces, and that the decision was taken in light of Trump’s acceptance “of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations”.

For his part, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the warring sides had agreed to an “immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere”.

The move is “EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY”, he wrote on X.

Sharif thanked the US and Iran and extended an invitation to “their delegations to Islamabad on Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes”.

According to Iran’s National Security Council, its 10-point proposal calls for Iranian dominance and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, which it said would grant it a “unique economic and geopolitical position”.

The proposal also calls for the withdrawal of all “US combat forces” from bases in the Middle East and a halt to military operations against allied armed groups across the region. It goes on to demand “full compensation” for war damages, as well as the lifting of all sanctions by the US, the United Nations Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The proposal also calls for the release of frozen Iranian assets abroad and the ratification of any final agreement in a binding UN Security Council resolution.

The council said that while Tehran has agreed to talks, it does so “with complete distrust of the American side”.

It said Iran will allocate two weeks for these negotiations and that the time period “can be extended by agreement of the parties”.

The council added that Iran stood ready to respond with “full force” as soon as “the slightest mistake by the enemy is made”.

There has been no comment from Israel.