Russia

The continued clashes and drone strikes reported by Ukraine despite a United States brokered ceasefire reveal the deep structural difficulties facing diplomatic efforts to end the Russia Ukraine war. Although both Moscow and Kyiv formally agreed to a temporary ceasefire between May 9 and May 11, reports of ongoing battlefield engagements, drone operations, and civilian casualties demonstrate how fragile and limited such agreements have become in the context of prolonged modern warfare.

The ceasefire emerged as part of a broader diplomatic push led by United States President Donald Trump to reduce hostilities and create momentum toward wider peace negotiations. However, within days both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of violations, exposing the absence of trust, verification mechanisms, and shared strategic objectives between the two sides.

The developments illustrate a broader reality increasingly visible in contemporary conflicts. Ceasefires no longer necessarily represent steps toward peace. Instead, they often function as temporary tactical pauses within wars that continue politically, militarily, and psychologically even during formal periods of de escalation.

The Structural Fragility of Modern Ceasefires

The Ukraine conflict demonstrates why ceasefires in modern interstate wars are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Unlike traditional wars where front lines were relatively static and centralized military command structures exercised greater control, contemporary conflicts involve decentralized operations, drone warfare, rapid communication systems, and continuous battlefield surveillance.

In such environments, even limited military activity can quickly trigger accusations of violations and retaliation. The reported drone attacks, artillery clashes, and combat engagements along the front line reflect how difficult it is to fully halt military operations across an extensive and heavily militarized battlefield.

Furthermore, both Russia and Ukraine continue to pursue strategic objectives incompatible with lasting compromise. Russia seeks to consolidate territorial gains and maintain pressure on Ukrainian forces, while Ukraine aims to resist occupation and preserve sovereignty. Without broader political agreement regarding the war’s fundamental issues, temporary ceasefires remain highly vulnerable to collapse.

The result is a situation where ceasefires may reduce the intensity of conflict in some areas while violence continues in others, creating ambiguity regarding whether peace efforts are genuinely progressing.

Drone Warfare and the Transformation of the Battlefield

One of the most significant features of the current conflict is the central role of drones in sustaining military operations even during ceasefire periods. Ukraine’s military reported thousands of so called kamikaze drone deployments, while Russia simultaneously accused Ukraine of launching drone attacks into Russian territory.

Drone warfare fundamentally alters the nature of ceasefires because unmanned systems allow states to maintain pressure without large scale troop offensives. Drones can conduct reconnaissance, target infrastructure, disrupt logistics, and inflict psychological pressure while remaining below the threshold of full conventional escalation.

This creates a strategic grey zone where both sides can continue military activity while formally claiming commitment to ceasefire agreements. The low cost, flexibility, and deniability associated with drone operations make them especially attractive during periods of limited diplomatic engagement.

The widespread use of drones also reflects the broader transformation of modern warfare into a technologically driven conflict characterized by constant surveillance and persistent low intensity attacks. In this environment, the distinction between war and ceasefire becomes increasingly blurred.

The apparent breakdown of the ceasefire also highlights the growing limitations facing United States led diplomatic efforts. Although Washington remains deeply influential in shaping international negotiations surrounding the conflict, its ability to enforce compliance remains constrained.

Temporary ceasefires require more than political announcements. They depend on verification systems, mutual trust, enforcement mechanisms, and shared incentives for de escalation. None of these conditions currently exist at sufficient levels between Russia and Ukraine.

Moreover, both sides appear to view military pressure as essential to strengthening their negotiating positions. This creates a paradox where diplomacy and warfare occur simultaneously rather than sequentially. Ceasefires therefore become instruments for tactical adjustment rather than genuine pathways toward peace.

The involvement of the United States also introduces additional geopolitical dimensions. Russia continues to frame the conflict as part of a broader confrontation with Western influence, while Ukraine depends heavily on Western military and diplomatic support. These dynamics complicate efforts to establish neutral or mutually accepted mediation frameworks.

Humanitarian Consequences and Civilian Vulnerability

Despite diplomatic initiatives, civilians continue to bear the costs of ongoing violence. Reports of deaths and injuries across regions including Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Mykolaiv demonstrate how even limited ceasefire violations can produce severe humanitarian consequences.

Modern conflicts increasingly expose civilian populations to continuous insecurity because fighting extends beyond conventional front lines. Drone strikes, missile attacks, and artillery exchanges create environments where daily life remains unstable regardless of official diplomatic announcements.

This persistent insecurity also produces long term social and psychological effects. Populations living under repeated cycles of ceasefire and renewed violence may gradually lose confidence in diplomatic processes altogether. Such conditions weaken public trust in negotiations and reinforce perceptions that military outcomes remain more decisive than political agreements.

The humanitarian dimension therefore remains central to understanding the broader implications of the war. Beyond territorial disputes and geopolitical competition, the conflict continues to reshape civilian life, displacement patterns, and regional stability across Eastern Europe.

The Strategic Logic Behind Continued Fighting

The continuation of battlefield clashes despite the ceasefire reflects rational strategic calculations by both parties. Neither Russia nor Ukraine wishes to allow the other side opportunities to regroup, reinforce positions, or gain battlefield advantage during temporary pauses.

For Russia, maintaining pressure along advancing sectors preserves momentum and signals military resolve. For Ukraine, continued resistance demonstrates operational resilience and prevents normalization of Russian territorial control.

This strategic logic makes limited violations almost inevitable in prolonged wars where military outcomes remain uncertain. Ceasefires become fragile because both sides fear that restraint could weaken their broader position in future negotiations or battlefield developments.

The situation also reflects how wars of attrition generate incentives for constant pressure rather than stable pauses. Each side seeks to exhaust the opponent economically, militarily, and psychologically over time.

Analysis

The reported ceasefire violations in Ukraine demonstrate the growing difficulty of achieving meaningful de escalation in modern high intensity conflicts. Temporary agreements may reduce some forms of violence, but they rarely address the deeper strategic, political, and technological dynamics sustaining prolonged warfare.

The Ukraine conflict illustrates several important realities shaping contemporary international security. First, ceasefires without comprehensive political frameworks remain highly unstable. Second, drone warfare and decentralized military technologies blur the distinction between peace and conflict. Third, diplomatic efforts increasingly coexist with ongoing military operations rather than replacing them.

The events also reveal the limits of external mediation in wars where core strategic objectives remain fundamentally incompatible. As long as both Russia and Ukraine continue viewing military pressure as essential to their long term goals, ceasefires are likely to function more as tactical interruptions than genuine transitions toward peace.

Ultimately, the fragility of the current ceasefire reflects a broader transformation in warfare itself. Modern conflicts are no longer defined solely by formal declarations of war or peace, but by continuous cycles of negotiation, limited escalation, technological warfare, and strategic uncertainty.

With information from Reuters.

The annual ritual that is the Victory Day Parade in Moscow serves a dual purpose. It reminds Russia’s citizenry and the Kremlin’s audience across the former Soviet Union of the glorious past. The muscle flexing on May 9 each year benchmarks Russia’s geopolitical fortunes.

Last year on the 80th anniversary of the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany, Russian President Vladimir Putin was flanked by foreign dignitaries from far and wide: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority.

This year, the lineup was much less impressive. Leaders from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia and Uzbekistan attended – with Republika Srpska, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for some added flavour – but no heavy hitters like India or China.

The talk of Russia as a linchpin of a new multipolar world order rings a tad hollow today, not least because no heavy equipment was marched through during the parade out of fear of Ukrainian drone strikes. On top of it, United States President Donald Trump claimed credit for a three-day ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.

The relatively dull affair that was this year’s parade speaks volumes about Russia’s current state. On paper, everything is going just fine. Trump has not wholly abandoned the idea of a deal to freeze the war in Ukraine, even at the cost of major concessions by Kyiv. The current US National Security Strategy calls for “strategic stability” with Russia while blasting Europe’s “woke” policies.

The inconclusive war against Iran, meanwhile, has exposed the limits of US military might. Oil prices have jumped, filling Russia’s coffers and improving its fiscal balance. On top of it, Trump has removed sanctions on some Russian oil to increase the global supply. Meanwhile, the Europeans are signalling they want to talk to Moscow.

In reality, the mood is gloomy. The Russian war effort in Ukraine continues to be stalled no matter how much money, materiel and human lives the Kremlin throws into the meat grinder that is the so-called special military operation (SVO). Ukrainian drones have hit deep inside the Russian homeland with even Red Square apparently not being immune to aerial attack.

Trump has lost interest in wooing Putin. With Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gone, the European Union has consolidated ranks. In Russia itself, economic growth has plummeted from 4 percent in 2024 to a projection of just over 1 percent this year.

The prospects for long-term development, productivity growth and technological innovation are lacklustre. There are modest signs of discontent within the Russian elite. Even Putin’s sky-high popularity ratings are slightly down, according to pollsters.

The stifling of the mobile internet in Moscow and other big cities has been met with dismay. Russians could be excused for puzzling over how the SVO, sold as a glorious repeat of the 1941-1945 Great Patriotic War, has gone on longer than the latter with no end in sight. It is no wonder Putin felt compelled to say on Saturday that “the matter” is coming to an end.

While its resources are focused on Ukraine, Russia is on the back foot in what it still calls its “near abroad” too. The past week showed that Europe is gaining momentum there.

On Monday, Armenia hosted the annual summit of the European Political Community (EPC), where European leaders gathered. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in attendance too. Once Moscow’s loyal client and member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation and Eurasian Economic Union, Yerevan is now strengthening ties with the West.

Even if the EPC is dismissed as a pan-European talking shop – or maybe a transatlantic one, given that Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, came as well – observers cannot ignore the fact that it was followed by the first EU-Armenia summit.  The high-profile meeting signalled in no ambiguous terms that Yerevan sees its future in the EU. Strategically, it is looking at joining the trio of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

The EU is reciprocating: The summit discussed up to 2.5 billion euros ($2.95bn) in investment in Armenia; cooperation on energy, transport and digital infrastructure; and visa liberalisation.

In parallel, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are courting the Trump administration. The two countries have welcomed the US as a peacebroker as they move closer to normalising ties. In August at the White House, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a joint declaration pledging to seek peace.

In February, JD Vance became the first sitting US vice president to visit Yerevan and then hopped over to Baku. Armenians and Azeris are negotiating the opening of the Zangezur corridor running between Azerbaijan proper and its exclave Nakhchivan (from where the Aliyev family hails). The project has a name – Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.

In short, the US has scored a couple of points in Russia’s back yard with the help of Pashinyan and Aliyev. Moscow is watching from the sidelines as a former satellite drifts away from its embrace. And the EU but also Turkiye are to benefit because Armenia’s opening and interconnection with its neighbours favours their pro-integration agenda.

Of course, this does not mean that Armenia could simply jump ship from Russia to the West. Moscow retains stakes in the Armenian economy and, therefore, political leverage.

This will be put on display in the June general election, which will pit Pashinyan’s Civil Contract against the Armenia Alliance of former President Robert Kocharyan and Strong Armenia associated with the Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan. Both Kocharyan and Karapetyan have strong connections to Moscow.

Public opinion is in favour of diversifying relations but not a complete break-up. That is a pragmatic position shared by Pashinyan too despite his focus on deepening ties with the West.

Russia failed to – or was reluctant to – support Armenia against Azerbaijan and prevent the loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and Armenians are right to look for alliances elsewhere. But without a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and without full normalisation with Turkiye, one has to tread carefully and not burn bridges.

The Armenian leadership has to also factor in neighbouring Iran, with whom it enjoys positive ties. An escalation of the US-Israel war on Iran could threaten cross-border energy trade.

Putin would have loved to see Armenia and Azerbaijan attending Saturday’s parade. Ditto for Moldova, where pro-EU forces prevailed in the 2025 parliamentary elections. Or Georgia, which still has no diplomatic relations with Russia despite the rule of the authoritarian-minded Georgian Dream, a party viewed positively in the Kremlin.

The chances of those countries turning up next year are slim too. Even Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will probably not confirm until the last minute, as they have been doing for years.

These days, Russia’s near abroad is much more abroad than near.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

As Russia held its most scaled-back Victory Day parade in years with Vladimir Putin suggesting the war on Ukraine is ‘coming to an end’, Theresa Fallon argues Volodymyr Zelenskyy has played a bad hand of cards very well in order to gain momentum against Moscow.

May 8 (UPI) — Russia and Ukraine on Friday confirmed a three-day cease-fire and prisoner swap, which they said was agreed to after their leaders spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that the countries agreed to pause the conflict Saturday through Monday, and for both country to swap 1,000 prisoners each that have been captured during the four-year war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the agreement in a post on X, and said that he has instructed his team to “promptly prepare everything necessary for the exchange.”

Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov also confirmed the deal, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin found it acceptable and that Russia “welcomes” it, Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency reported.

The deal comes less than a day before Russia celebrates Victory Day, its annual commemoration of the allied powers victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

“This request was made directly by me, and I very much appreciate its agreement by President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymir Zelenskyy,” Trump said in the post, referring to calls he placed to both leaders and which they confirmed.

“Hopefully, [the cease-fire] is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, hard fought War,” Trump said. “Talks are continuing on ending this Major Conflict, the biggest since World War II, and we are getting closer and closer every day.”

The cease-fire in the biggest land war in Europe since World War II will include “a suspension of all kinetic activity,” as well as countries returning 1,000 prisoners each to one another.

Zelensky said there had been appeals and signals about a potential cease-fire to start on Saturday because of Victory Day, which motivated it to negotiate the pause and pursue the return of Ukrainians held during the war.

“An additional argument for Ukraine in determining our position has always been the resolution of one of the key humanitarian issues of this war — namely, the release of prisoners of war,” he said. “Red Square is less important to us than the lives of Ukrainian prisoners who can be brought home.”

Ushakov said that Trump, during the call with Putin, emphasized that Russia and the United States were allies during World War II, pointing to Victory Day as a potential date to start a cease-fire.

“An agreement on this matter was reached during our telephone contacts with the U.S. administration,” Ushakov said. “In turn, U.S. representatives were in contact with Kyiv.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that his country’s war on Ukraine may be “coming to an end” and expressed a willingness to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a third country if a peace deal is finalised.

Putin made the comments to reporters on Saturday, hours after promising victory in Ukraine at Russia’s most scaled-back Victory Day parade in years.

The remarks came as Russia and Ukraine began a three-day ceasefire and agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners, in developments that raised cautious hopes of renewed diplomatic progress.

At the parade, Putin praised Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, framing their mission as a “just cause” against “an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc”.

“Victory has always been and will be ours,” he added, as columns of troops lined up on Moscow’s Red Square.

Speaking to reporters afterwards, Putin blamed Western “globalist elites” for the war, saying they had promised NATO would not expand eastward after the 1989 fall of ‌the Berlin Wall, but then tried to draw Ukraine into the European Union’s orbit.

He then declared, “I think the matter is coming to an end.”

Russia’s annual Victory Day holiday marks the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II and honours the 27 million Soviet citizens who died in the conflict.

This year’s parade was more subdued than usual, with videos of military hardware shown on giant screens rather than tanks and missile systems rolling through Red Square.

For the first time, Saturday’s parade featured troops from North Korea, a tribute to Pyongyang that sent its soldiers to fight alongside Moscow’s forces to repel a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.

Russia had declared a unilateral ceasefire for the holiday on Friday and Saturday, while Zelenskyy announced a truce that was supposed to begin on May 6, but neither held, and the parties traded blame for the continuing attacks.

Fears for the festivities eased on Friday, when US President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had bowed to his request for a ceasefire running Saturday through Monday and an exchange of prisoners.

“This Ceasefire will include a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each Country,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social Post on Friday.

“Talks are continuing” on ending the war, Trump said, adding that “we are getting closer and closer every day”.

“Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War,” he said.

Zelenskyy followed up on Trump’s statement with a decree mockingly permitting Russia to hold its Victory Day celebrations, declaring Red Square temporarily off-limits for Ukrainian strikes.

The Kremlin shrugged off the comments as a “silly joke”.

Zelenskyy has previously proposed to meet with Putin to negotiate a peace deal, but has dismissed the Russian leader’s suggestion that he come to Moscow. On Saturday, Putin told reporters he could meet with Zelenskyy in another country, but only to endorse a comprehensive accord.

“A meeting in a third country is also possible, but only after a peace treaty aimed at a long-term historic perspective is finalised,” Putin said. “This should be a final deal, not the negotiations.”

Putin, who has governed Russia as president or prime minister since the last day of 1999, faces a ⁠wave of anxiety in Moscow about the war in Ukraine, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people, left swaths of Ukraine ⁠in ruins, and drained Russia’s $3 trillion economy.

Russian troops have been fighting in Ukraine for more than four years. That is longer than Soviet forces fought in World War II, known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War of 1941-45.

But Russian forces have so far been unable to take the whole of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Kyiv’s forces have been pushed back to a line of fortress cities. Russian advances have slowed this year, though Moscow controls just under one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.

European Council President Antonio Costa said last week that there was potential for talks between Europe and Russia on the continent’s future security architecture.

Asked on Saturday if he was willing to ‌engage in talks with the Europeans, Putin said the preferable figure for him was Germany’s former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder.

“For me personally, the former chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Mr Schroder, is preferable,” Putin said.

Russia held a scaled-back Victory Day parade on May 9 due to concerns over potential attacks from Ukraine. This parade, which celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany and honors the 27 million Soviet citizens who died, saw no military equipment displayed, unlike in previous years. Instead, images of advanced military weapons, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles and fighter jets, were shown on giant screens.

President Vladimir Putin attended the event, seated next to veterans, and gave a speech claiming that Russian soldiers are inspired by the past victories against aggressive forces, despite the support Ukraine receives from NATO. He declared his belief in eventual victory in the ongoing conflict, referred to by the Kremlin as a “special military operation. “

In the backdrop of the parade, U. S. President Donald Trump announced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, aiming to reduce hostilities. Both sides had earlier accused each other of violating ceasefires. Trump expressed a desire for a lengthy ceasefire, noting the severe loss of life since the conflict began, which he described as significant since World War Two. During this period, both Russia and Ukraine agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners.

Prior to the parade, Russia had warned of severe retaliation if Ukraine tried to disrupt the event, leading to heightened security in Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy humorously acknowledged the parade but stated that Ukrainian forces would not target Red Square.

The atmosphere in Moscow during the parade was marked by anxiety about the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has resulted in catastrophic loss of life, widespread destruction in Ukraine, and significant impacts on the Russian economy. Critics within Russia, including pro-war nationalists, expressed concerns about the government’s handling of the war and the possibility of economic collapse.

Reports also suggested increased security measures around Putin due to fears of a coup or assassination, although Kremlin officials dismissed these claims. Amidst the celebration, the shadow of the war loomed large, reflecting the deepening crisis within Russia as it struggles with the outcomes of its military actions in Ukraine.

With information from Reuters

Russia has held one of its most scaled-back Victory Day parades in years, citing the threat of attack from Ukraine, where a decisive victory for Moscow’s forces has remained elusive more than four years into the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II.

The May 9 parade on Moscow’s Red Square is Russia’s most revered national holiday, a moment to celebrate the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany and to commemorate the 27 million Soviet citizens, including many from what is now Ukraine, who were killed during the war.

Once used to showcase Russia’s military might, including its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles, this year’s parade featured no tanks or other heavy military hardware rolling across the cobblestones of Red Square.

Instead, weapons including a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, the new Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine, the Peresvet laser weapon, the Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet, the S-500 surface-to-air missile system and a range of drones and artillery were displayed on giant screens on the square and broadcast on state television.

Soldiers and sailors, some of whom have served in Ukraine, marched and chanted as President Vladimir Putin looked on, seated alongside Russian veterans in the shadow of Vladimir Lenin’s Mausoleum. North Korean troops, who have fought against Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region, also took part in the march.

Fighter jets flew above the Kremlin’s towers and Putin delivered an eight-minute address, promising victory in the war in Ukraine, which the Kremlin refers to as a “special military operation”.

“The great feat of the victorious generation inspires the soldiers carrying out the tasks of the special military operation today,” Putin said. “They are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. And in spite of that, our heroes march forward.”

BREAKINGBREAKING,

Truce will also include swap of 1,000 prisoners of war from each country, US president says.

⁠United States ⁠President Donald Trump ⁠says ‌there will be a three-day ceasefire in ⁠the war between ⁠Russia and ⁠Ukraine.

Posting on Truth Social on Friday, the US leader said the truce would last from ⁠Saturday to Monday.

“I am pleased to announce that there will be a THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine,” Trump posted.

“The Celebration in Russia is for Victory Day but, likewise, in Ukraine, because they were also a big part and factor of World War II. This Ceasefire will include a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each Country,” he added.

Russia had previously announced a two-day unilateral ceasefire to mark its May 9 World War II Victory Day on Saturday.

Ukraine previously stated that it too had offered a truce but that this had been ignored by Moscow.

“This request was made directly by me,” Trump said on Friday, thanking his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy for agreeing to it.

“Talks are continuing” on ending the war, Trump said, adding that “we are getting closer and closer every day”.

“Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War.”

More to come…

Southern Russia is facing one of the largest environmental disasters in its modern history. In April, repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure in Tuapse triggered massive refinery fires and oil spills along the Black Sea coast, including near Sochi. Residents described “black rain” falling from the sky as smoke and petroleum residue spread across the region. Weeks later, wildlife is still dying, beaches remain polluted and volunteers trying to respond say their efforts have often been obstructed. The authorities, meanwhile, have focused less on confronting the scale of the catastrophe than on silencing those speaking out about it. Despite the ongoing environmental damage, officials are already discussing reopening the beaches and launching the tourist season.

The catastrophe raises difficult questions about environmental destruction during wartime. Ukraine, which has experienced countless environmental catastrophes related to Russia’s all-out war, has been among the leading actors advocating for the recognition of ecocide as an international crime, even though the concept has yet to be formally codified in international law. Following the April strikes, however, some environmental activists in Russia and beyond are now also accusing Ukraine of hypocrisy and causing long-term environmental harm through strikes on oil infrastructure. There is a real debate over whether such actions can be justified, even when targeting an aggressor, if their environmental consequences may last for decades.

But focusing exclusively on Ukrainian strikes risks obscuring the deeper structural causes of the disaster. Russia’s oil infrastructure is deeply embedded in its war economy, and environmental damage of this magnitude does not occur in a vacuum. It is shaped by years of deregulation, lack of oversight and the systematic dismantling of environmental protections. These trends have only intensified during the full-scale invasion, as environmental safeguards have increasingly been cancelled in order to sustain the war economy. This includes recent legislative changes affecting the protection of Lake Baikal — a unique ecosystem that contains around 23 percent of the world’s unfrozen freshwater — raising concerns among experts about long-term environmental risks.

For years, environmental organisations in Russia have been labelled “foreign agents” or declared “undesirable”, independent environmental movements have been dismantled and activists forced into exile. The current catastrophe is unfolding in a country where ecological disasters are often silenced rather than addressed.

What is striking in the current situation is not only the scale of the damage but the response of the authorities. Rather than responding with transparency and accountability, Russian officials have largely attempted to silence discussion around the disaster. This recalls earlier patterns, including the initial response to the Chornobyl disaster, where secrecy and delayed disclosure significantly worsened the human and environmental consequences.

In this sense, responsibility does not lie only in the immediate cause of the disaster, but also in the absence of preparedness, regulation and accountability.

This disaster has also triggered an unusual wave of discussion within Russia itself, much of it unfolding online, despite increasing censorship. Volunteers on the ground have reported being obstructed and, in some cases, harassed while trying to rescue wildlife. Journalists attempting to document the situation have faced detention. Even as the catastrophe unfolds, the space to speak about it remains tightly controlled.

Yet the public reaction is telling. Much of it is happening on Instagram, which is banned in Russia, and on other social media platforms, with people still using VPNs to speak out and read real news. Rather than turning primarily into accusations against Ukraine, much of this discussion has been directed at the Russian authorities. The disaster is being used, implicitly and sometimes explicitly, to question the lack of coordination, the absence of transparency and the broader political system that allows such crises to happen.

This is significant. In a country where even calling the war a war is effectively prohibited, environmental catastrophe has become one of the few channels through which criticism can still surface.

The situation also exposes a deeper problem that goes beyond Russia. It highlights a fundamental gap in international law: the lack of effective mechanisms to address large-scale environmental destruction in the context of war.

Recent events illustrate the consequences of this gap. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam caused massive ecological damage, yet failed to generate sustained legal or political accountability at the international level. Since then, environmental destruction has continued to accompany the war, without clear mechanisms to address it.

More broadly, the issue is being sidelined. The war in Ukraine has become so heavily politicised globally that discussions of its environmental consequences are often reduced, avoided or absorbed into larger geopolitical narratives. From the perspective of an environmental activist from Russia, this creates a deep sense of helplessness. These issues are becoming harder to raise, not because they are less important, but because they are competing with an overwhelming number of global crises.

This frustration is also visible within parts of the Russian antiwar movement, where there is a growing perception that international actors are more focused on the economic consequences of the conflict than on addressing its deeper causes and risks that go beyond military threats.

Meanwhile, environmental destruction across Russia, a country that spans one-10th of the Earth’s land surface, continues with little international attention. This includes not only wartime damage, but also longstanding patterns tied to extractivism, colonial governance in national republics, and the systematic marginalisation of Indigenous communities. These are not separate issues. They are part of the same underlying problem, one that remains largely unaddressed.

Environmental exploitation in Russia’s regions has long been tied to older imperial patterns of control and dispossession. These same southern regions are also the regions where the Russian Empire committed genocide against the Indigenous Circassian people, exterminating and expelling more than 95 percent of the local population in the late 19th century. And now, what the Russian authorities seem to care about is not the environmental devastation itself, but reopening the beaches so the region can continue generating income.

While Europe is preparing to spend hundreds of billions of euros responding to what it sees as a growing Russian military threat, far less attention is being paid to the political and economic structures sustaining environmental destruction inside Russia itself. From the perspective of an environmental activist and someone finishing a master’s degree in international affairs, there is a striking gap in how the root causes of this crisis are being addressed.

Too little attention is paid to the deeper structures that sustain it: Russia’s colonial governance and extractivist economic model in the regions of Russia. These issues remain underexplored not only in political decision-making but also in academia and media coverage. This gap is particularly visible in the missed opportunities to engage with emerging Russian decolonial movements and Indigenous activists from national republics, who have long been raising precisely these concerns. Their perspectives remain marginal, even though they are essential for understanding both environmental destruction and political instability in the region.

Many international organisations and NGOs have also scaled down or abandoned work related to Russia’s internal environmental and human rights issues, as well as broader regional dynamics in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. As a result, entire areas of expertise are disappearing at the very moment they are most needed. Voices that could contribute to a deeper understanding, and potentially to long-term solutions, are increasingly sidelined or ignored.

And when catastrophe comes, people are left asking how it became possible for oil to fall from the sky.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

May 9 is a venerated date on the Russian calendar. The anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II is usually commemorated with a grand military parade outside the Kremlin, on Moscow’s Red Square.

“For modern Russia, it’s the main holiday of the year,” said Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at Crisis Group. “There are two main holidays in Russia, the ninth of May and the New Year. And if you asked Russians, what is the main holiday, I think they would answer you that it’s the ninth of May.”

This year, however, for the first time in nearly 20 years, there will be no tanks, missiles or junior cadets in the parade. The decision to hold back on showcasing military equipment comes as a result of heightened security fears over the war in Ukraine.

However, personnel from higher-level military academies will still take part in the procession on foot, while the aerial portion of the programme will remain unchanged – an aerobatic show, followed by a team of Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets painting the sky in the tricolours of the Russian flag.

In official statements, the Kremlin has referred to “the current operational situation,” and threats of “Ukrainian terrorist activity.”

Ukrainian drones are now striking deeper and deeper into Russian territory on an almost daily basis, hitting targets such as oil facilities and airfields. A recent spate of drone attacks on the oil refinery in Tuapse, on Russia’s Black Sea coast, has caused an ecological catastrophe and prompted the evacuation of the town.

“Drones are indeed the primary means to attack Russia’s territory,” explained Olha Polishchuk, research manager for Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). “They are relatively cheap, modifiable and can travel long distances … Both Ukraine and Russia have switched to using primarily drones for their attacks.

He said that since 2025, drone strikes “completely overshadowed other attacks”.

“Their use has been effective overall; most drones are intercepted but if you send enough of them, some will reach the target.”

Fears of ‘political and psychological consequences’

Security and anti-drone defences have been tightened in the capital since the Ukrainian armed forces began sending drones there in 2023, with one striking the Kremlin itself.

Mobile internet has been periodically shut off in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and other areas of the country in the days running up to the event, with providers citing “security reasons”.

“Moscow has very strong air defence, which includes short-range surface-to-air missile systems, other missile systems, small arms and electronic warfare systems,” explained Polishchuk. “It is a multilayered system located both around and inside the city. In the past, authorities have shut down cellular networks in Moscow to complicate drone navigation.

“Ukraine very rarely attacks Moscow because the air defence would require a very large swarm of drones for any attack to land, but also because there are plenty of other strategically relevant targets that do not carry such a high risk of civilian casualties.”

Nevertheless, the Victory Day ceremonies present a clear risk. Such a concentration of troops and vehicles is vulnerable not only on the day of the parade itself but before and after, too: after all, that hardware must be stored somewhere.

“Of course, they care about drones which can fly from Ukraine, but most of these drones are being intercepted,” Crisis Group’s Ignatov told Al Jazeera. “They are more afraid of groups of people using small drones which are delivered to Russia, and used against targets inside Russia, like in Operation Spiderweb [in 2025] … Even if one or a couple of small drones hit a military parade, it may not cause a casualty, but it will have a demonstrative and psychological effect. I think what they care about is the political and psychological consequences of this.”

The Victory Day parade is a tradition from the communist era, an occasion on which the citizenry could catch a glimpse of Soviet statesmen waving from atop Lenin’s tomb, as well as a chance for the then-superpower to show off its military might. But when the USSR collapsed in December 1991, the parades were shelved for nearly two decades until they were revived by President Vladimir Putin in 2008.

Since the start of the full-scale war in 2022, the Victory Day parade has been scaled back again. Only a solitary Soviet-era T-34 tank symbolically rolled across Red Square in 2024, although other types of vehicles, such as armoured personnel carriers and mobile missile launchers, were present.

Last year’s proceedings, however, packed a little more pomp. Not only did the parade feature modern tanks, the TOS-2 Tosochka heavy flamethrower systems and Iskander ballistic missiles, but also Russian troops marching alongside Chinese soldiers.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping watched the show sitting beside Putin, one of 27 heads of state in attendance, including Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso. The turnout seemed to indicate that, despite international condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was not isolated.

‘Victory over Nazi barbarism’ or a ‘cynical distortion of history’

“A celebration of the Soviet and Allied defeat of Hitler’s Nazi-Fascist alliance, Victory Day is the most sacred date on Russia’s political calendar,” said British historian Geoffrey Roberts.

“As ever, Victory Day will be celebrated as a Soviet as well as a Russian victory – the result of the common struggle of all the peoples of the multinational USSR, not least millions of Ukrainians. Victory Day is for the Russian government a day of multiethnic unity. It is also a reminder of the international antifascist unity – of the Soviet-Western coalition during World War II that together saved the world from Nazi barbarism.”

The Eastern Front of the second world war, known as the Great Patriotic War in Russia, occupies a central place in Russian national memory. About 27 million Soviet citizens, including Russians, lost their lives in the conflict, more than any other country, and it was the Red Army’s soldiers that hoisted their flag over the Reichstag in Berlin in 1945. The German surrender was officially finalised on May 9.

This memory is evoked by Putin’s government today, claiming it is fighting “Nazis” on the battlefields of Ukraine.

“It appears that in modern Russia, 9 May has been twisted to actually support aggressive behaviour and militarisation,” Polishchuk said.

“It is a big source of pride which supports the notion that Russia is strong, undefeated, and will not tolerate disrespect from anyone. The more common ‘never again’ in reference to WWII became ‘we can do it again’ in Russia as a popular Victory Day slogan. This posturing becomes even more important during an ongoing war, as it supports another sort of reality – one where Russia has not made a mistake by invading Ukraine and is not currently failing to achieve its military objectives.”

According to the open-source intelligence project Oryx, more than 14,000 Russian tanks, APCs and other combat vehicles have been destroyed, captured, abandoned or otherwise lost since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

Modern Ukraine considers Victory Day, as celebrated in Russia today, a cynical distortion of history and seeks to discourage foreign dignitaries from attending, Polishchuk added.

“Ukraine is generally more level-headed than Russia in sticking to targets that have a military objective, but this is indeed one of the instances where the [potential] attack appears largely symbolic,” she said. “Ukraine may decide to save resources this time and not attack Moscow – it could be a sane choice since air defence will be on high alert and security concerns may already discourage participation, yet Russian authorities have no choice but to try to reduce the risk regardless.”

Warring sides accuse each other of violations as attacks continue across front lines.

Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of breaching a short ceasefire announced by Moscow to coincide with Victory Day commemorations marking the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany.

The Kremlin said its forces downed 264 Ukrainian drones early on Friday, with officials in Moscow reporting attempted attacks on the capital and in the Perm region in the Ural Mountains.

The truce, declared from May 8 to May 10, was intended to cover annual celebrations that include a military parade in Moscow.

Russia had warned that any disruption would trigger a large-scale missile response against Kyiv, urging foreign diplomats to leave the Ukrainian capital before potential escalation.

In a separate announcement, the Russian transport ministry said on Friday that 13 airports in Russia’s south halted operations due to drone attacks.

“Operations at the regional centre in Rostov-on-Don, which manages air traffic in southern Russia, have been temporarily suspended after Ukrainian drone struck the administrative building of the ‘Southern Russia Air Navigation’ branch,” the ministry said.

There were no casualties, it added.

Victory Day commemorations mark the Soviet Union’s loss of 27 million people in World War II, as it drove Nazi forces back to Berlin, where Adolf Hitler died, and the Red Army’s Soviet Victory Banner was raised over the Reichstag in May 1945.

‘We will defend our people’s lives’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian forces continued to attack positions overnight, dismissing the ceasefire as ineffective.

He said Russia had carried out more than 140 attacks on front-line positions by early morning, alongside 10 assaults and more than 850 drone attacks.

“As we did over the past 24 hours, Ukraine will respond in kind today as well. We will defend our positions and people’s lives,” Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine also reported striking a Russian oil facility in Yaroslavl, deep inside Russian territory, in what Kyiv described as retaliation for attacks on its cities.

“Ukraine’s long-range sanctions continued in response to Russian strikes on our cities and villages,” Zelenskyy said.

Kyiv had proposed an open-ended ceasefire beginning on May 6, which it said Russia ignored. Moscow did not adopt that proposal, and neither side accepted the other’s terms.

In remarks before the truce, Zelenskyy criticised Russia’s approach to the commemorations, saying Moscow sought a pause “to hold their parade, to go out onto the square safely for an hour once a year, and then continue killing, killing our people and waging war”.

“The Russians are already talking about strikes after May 9. Strange and certainly inappropriate of the Russian leadership,” he added.

“Just as 81 years ago, so now America can help peace with a just and strong stance against the aggressor,” Zelenskyy said. “And it is important that the American people now view Russia precisely in this way – as an aggressor.”

International Olympic Committee urges sporting bodies to let Belarusian athletes compete again without vetting as neutrals.

Athletes from Belarus should once again compete with their full national identity and not be vetted for neutral status, the International Olympic Committee has said.

Though the advice to sports governing bodies does not yet apply also to Russia, it seemed to point towards being closer to ending Russia’s isolation in Olympic circles during its war on Ukraine.

One barrier to Russia’s return is an ongoing World Anti-Doping Agency investigation into recent reports implicating Russian anti-doping agency official Veronika Loginova.

The IOC said its executive board noted “with concern the recent information” being looked at by WADA, without naming Loginova.

Athletes from Russia and Belarus had to be approved as neutrals who did not support the war for individual events at the 2024 Paris Olympics and February’s Milano Cortina Winter Olympics. A total of 32 athletes from the two countries competed in Paris, to win five medals combined, including one gold in trampoline by an athlete from Belarus.

“The IOC reaffirms that athletes’ participation in international competition should not be limited by the actions of their governments, including involvement in a war or conflict,” the Olympic body said on Thursday.

The IOC noted the qualification period for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics “starts this summer.”

The Russian Olympic Committee has been suspended by the IOC since October 2023 for incorporating regional sports bodies in illegally occupied eastern Ukraine.

“Whilst the ROC has held constructive exchanges with the IOC on its suspension,” the IOC said, “it remains suspended while the IOC Legal Affairs Commission continues to review the matter.”

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s vow to shrink America’s military deployment in Germany has put a new spotlight on the U.S. role in Europe.

There are usually 80,000 to 100,000 troops on the continent, with more than 36,000 in Germany. The Pentagon announced Friday that it would remove 5,000 troops from Germany, and Trump said the next day that he would go “a lot further” than that.

The U.S. military presence is a legacy of World War II, when Americans helped stabilize and rebuild Europe, and the Cold War, when the troops served as a bulwark against Soviet expansion. More recently, the deployment has played a key role supporting operations in the Arctic, Africa and the Middle East including the current conflict with Iran.

But Trump has broken with years of bipartisan consensus, criticizing European allies in NATO and following through on threats to reduce the U.S. commitment to the continent’s security. The recent announcement comes after escalating tensions with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who last week said the U.S. was being “humiliated” by Iran and accused Washington of lacking a clear strategy.

Here’s a look at America’s current deployment in Europe and how it could change.

What to know about the U.S. defense posture in Europe

The U.S. European Command, created in 1947 and known as EUCOM, is one of 11 combat commands within the Defense Department, and covers some 50 countries and territories.

In addition to more than 36,000 troops in Germany, Italy hosts more than 12,000 and there’s another 10,000 in the United Kingdom, according to Pentagon numbers from December.

The Pentagon has offered few details about which troops or operations would be affected in the drawdown announced Friday.

The U.S. increased its European deployment after Russia launched its full-scale war on Ukraine four years ago. NATO allies like Germany have expected for over a year that these troops would be the first to leave.

European deployment has global role

Aside from its role as a deterrent to Russia, the U.S. military presence in Europe helps Washington project power across the globe.

U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who is the commander in Europe of both U.S. and NATO forces, reinforced the benefits of a strong footprint on the continent to the Senate Armed Services Committee in March.

“It is having capabilities in Europe, munitions in Europe that allow us to help U.S. Africa Command to target terrorists in Africa, or to help U.S. Central Command as they execute Operation Epic Fury,” he told lawmakers, referring to the Iran war. “The distances are shorter, it’s less expensive and it’s much easier to project power.”

Germany hosts the headquarters of the U.S. European and Africa commands, Ramstein Air Base and a medical center in Landstuhl, where casualties from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were treated. U.S. nuclear weapons are also stationed in the country.

The U.S. has approximately 100 nuclear bombs deployed to bases in Europe that would be delivered by aircraft, according to a March estimate from the Federation of American Scientists. The group’s report said the bombs are at bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, while it’s possible they’re also at a base in the United Kingdom.

A call to move U.S. forces further east in Europe

Even before Trump’s comment Saturday to reporters, Republican leaders of both armed services committees in Congress expressed concern about the Pentagon plan, warning a premature drawdown in Europe would send “the wrong signal to Vladimir Putin” as the Russian president continues his war in Ukraine.

Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi and Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama said troops should be shifted to bases in Eastern Europe rather than withdrawn.

The lawmakers also said allies have made “substantial investments to host U.S. troops.”

Wicker and Rogers said the Pentagon, following its announcement Friday, has also decided to cancel the planned deployment to Germany of one of the U.S. Army’s long-range fires battalions, which operate ground-launched missile systems.

Trump’s vision: DIY defense in Europe

As part of its National Defense Strategy announced in January — a sweeping document laying out a vision on everything from deterring China to defending against cyberattacks to disrupting Iran’s nuclear ambitions — the administration said Europe must do more for its own defense.

While “we are and will remain engaged in Europe, we must — and will — prioritize defending the U.S. Homeland and deterring China,” it said.

Among other things, the document noted that Europe’s economic power, while shrinking in relative terms globally, remains significant, and said that Germany’s economy alone “dwarfs that of Russia.”

“Fortunately, our NATO allies are substantially more powerful than Russia — it is not even close,” it said, noting a recent commitment among NATO allies to raise national defense spending to 5% of GDP in total, a push led by Trump.

What Germany has been doing to beef up its forces

Germany has moved to modernize its long-neglected military, or Bundeswehr, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That year, it set up a $117 billion special fund to boost Bundeswehr, much of which has been committed to procuring new equipment.

Late last year, Merz’s government announced plans to raise the number of military personnel to 260,000, up from about 180,000. In 2001, when Germany still had conscription, the headcount was 300,000 — more than a third of them conscripts.

Berlin says it will also need around 200,000 reservists, more than double the current figure.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, in comments to German news agency dpa after the Pentagon’s drawdown plan was announced Friday, acknowledged that Europe must take more responsibility for its own security — and said the Bundeswehr is growing, military equipment is being procured more quickly, and infrastructure is being developed.

Keaten and Finley write for the Associated Press. Keaten reported from Geneva.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s artistic skills have earned him the reputation of a public relations genius acknowledged by both friends and foes. United States President Donald Trump, who has openly attacked him in public, famously called the Ukrainian leader “the greatest salesman on Earth”. A much more sympathetic voice, New York Times columnist David French, has recently portrayed Zelenskyy as “the new leader of free world”.

But Zelenskyy’s PR genius can do very little when it comes to changing the dynamics of the battlefield in the Russia-Ukraine war. In recent weeks, his administration and allies have tried hard to create the impression that the war might be approaching a turning point. But realities on the ground tell a different story.

For example, there were official claims that in February, Ukraine made more territorial gains than Russia did. Some pro-Ukrainian war monitoring platforms have supported these claims while others have not. It is important to note  these calculations can be tricky given that along the frontline there is an extensive grey zone in which control is unclear. The advances themselves are measured in 150-200 square kilometres per month. In other words, methodology can be manipulated in order to produce the desired conclusion: that Ukraine is gaining ground.

In reality, there is nothing at all that suggests a significant change in the battlefield dynamics that have been in place for at least two years now.

More importantly, Russian troops are currently besieging a number of industrial cities in the north of the Donetsk region. Their advances all along the northern border, in particular, are extending the active front line by hundreds of kilometres, which is making Ukraine’s personnel shortages even more acute.

Four years into the war, the Ukrainian army has had to resort to brutal campaigns to enforce mandatory conscription, pulling young men off the streets of towns and villages. Meanwhile, Russia is still able to lure volunteers by offering lavish compensation.

Ukrainian officials have also claimed that Russia is losing more troops than it is able to recruit based on dubious casualty data. Zelenskyy, in particular, has stated the Russians suffered the highest number of monthly casualties in March this year – 35,000. But his statement contradicted his own Ministry of Defence, which claimed that the highest Russian monthly losses crossed 48,000 in January 2025, with an average monthly rate of roughly 35,000 throughout 2025.

Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, former military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, also contradicted this narrative that Russia is having major difficulty with deploying personnel. He acknowledged in a recent interview that the collapse of the Russian mobilisation effort was not forthcoming.

It should be noted that Ukraine is waging a successful drone campaign to damage Russian oil facilities. But it is doubtful that it could change anything beyond providing dramatic footage of oil tanks on fire for TV networks to broadcast.

In April, Russian oil revenues surged to $9bn, thanks to the US-Israel war on Iran. The windfall Russia got in a month is equivalent to 10 percent of the loan Ukraine is to receive from the European Union over the next two years to help fund its war effort.

It cannot be denied that Russia has sustained major economic losses due to the war, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged as much. But the Russian economy displays much the same downturn as other European economies, also affected by wars in Ukraine and Iran.

Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (an indicator reflecting living standards) currently exceeds that of less affluent EU countries, such as Romania and Greece, according to the IMF charts. The same indicator for Ukraine is on par with Mongolia and Egypt, while the country’s critical infrastructure lies in ruins and millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, most of them for good.

With Ukraine’s prospects bleaker than ever, pro-Ukrainian audiences jump on every news from Russia, which they hope may signify “cracks in the regime”. Last month, an Instagram video by Russian influencer Victoria Bonya made Western headlines for its daring criticism of government policies. There may be frustration in Russia, but the regime is far from approaching a downfall.

This narrative, however, serves to distract Ukrainian and EU citizens from the painful truth that the war is heading towards a deadlock at best and Ukraine’s collapse at worst. Zelenskyy may have received a lifeline with the $90bn euro loan, but his and his allies’ lack of vision and winning strategy is staggering.

The reality has already begun to kick in. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently suggested that Ukraine would have to concede some of its territory to Russia to end the war but get a faster track to EU membership in exchange. The EU’s defence chief, Andrius Kubilius, has gone further by claiming that NATO membership for Ukraine was out of the question and EU membership was going to be a “complicated process”. Instead, he proposed a military union of Ukraine and other European countries – an idea that Moscow will reject, interpreting it as NATO through the back door.

What these contradictory statements manifest is that the main bargain over the contours of peace is currently going not so much between Zelenskyy and Putin, but between Zelenskyy and his Western, primarily European, allies.

As Budanov recently claimed, the positions of Kyiv and Moscow can be moved closer to what is realistically attainable in peace talks. But Zelenskyy needs to show at least some kind of gain for Ukraine when a very unpalatable version of a peace treaty is finally signed. Ideally, that gain would be EU membership or real security guarantees, but as Merz and Kubilius’s statements suggest, the chances of attaining either are slim.

The frustration among Ukrainians is already palpable. The head of the Ukrainian parliament’s fiscal committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, said European officials should stop seeing Ukrainians as “a tool for solving someone’s geopolitical tasks” or as a “human shield”. They have no right to define Ukraine’s destiny, he insisted.

But Zelenskyy, who is dogged by a large-scale investigation into corruption involving his immediate entourage, seems to hold no cards to play against Russia or his Western allies. The status quo in which he retains the position of a war leader serves him well, but it is increasingly becoming untenable.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Ukrainian forces also strike two shadow fleet tankers near port of Novorossiysk, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.

Ukrainian forces have launched a drone attack on the Russian Baltic Sea ⁠⁠port of Primorsk, the governor says, as Kyiv and Moscow accuse each other of killing civilians in overnight air raids.

There was no oil spill caused by Sunday’s attack on Primorsk, a major oil-exporting outlet, but it caused a fire in the town that was extinguished, Leningrad Governor Alexander Drozdenko said. More than 60 drones were downed overnight over the northwestern region, he added.

Primorsk, ‌‌one of Russia’s largest export gateways, has the capacity to handle one million barrels per day of oil.

It has been hit multiple times in recent months as Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and other targets and United States-brokered talks to end the Ukraine war have stalled.

Ukrainian ⁠⁠President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country’s forces also struck two shadow fleet tankers in waters at the ⁠⁠entrance to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

“These tankers had been actively used to transport oil – not anymore,” Zelenskyy said on Telegram. “Ukraine’s long-range capabilities will continue to be developed comprehensively – at sea, in the ⁠⁠air, and on land.”

The two neighbours have been launching hundreds of explosive-packed drones at each other on a near-daily basis throughout the four-year war.

Other Russian regions also reported drone attacks on Saturday and Sunday. Moscow Governor Andrei Vorobyov ⁠⁠said on Saturday evening that a 77-year-old man ⁠⁠died in a village in a drone strike.

Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, said four drones were downed on their way to the Russian capital.

Vasily Anokhin, the governor ‌‌of the western region of Smolensk, said three people, including a child, were injured on Sunday in a drone attack on an apartment block.

Attacks in Ukraine

Russian drone strikes on Ukraine killed at least three people across the country, local officials said on Sunday.

Attacks on southern Ukraine’s Odesa region, home to key export terminals, killed two people, including a truck driver at a port, Governor Oleh Kiper said on social media.

“Enemy drones hit three residential buildings, and two more were damaged. … Facilities and equipment for the port infrastructure were also damaged,” he said.

Elsewhere, Russian strikes on the front-line region of Kherson in southern Ukraine also killed one person, officials said.

Russia fired 268 drones and one ballistic missile in the overnight attacks, Ukraine’s air force said.

In eastern Ukraine, Russian troops were ‌‌inching ‌‌towards the city of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, Ukraine’s top army official said on Saturday.

Peru’s public prosecutor says many of their citizens are victims of deception, lured by ⁠the promise of jobs but ended up in Ukraine.

Peru has launched an investigation into an alleged human trafficking network that lured citizens with false promises of employment in Russia, only for them to end up fighting in Russia’s war against Ukraine, the public prosecutor’s office has said.

Individuals were “recruited through deceptive job offers to work as security agents and other roles” in Russia, “with the promise of financial compensation”, the prosecutor’s office said in a statement on Friday.

The investigation will focus on the alleged crimes of “human trafficking” and “aggravated human trafficking”, the office said.

Percy Salinas, a lawyer representing families of people who ended up on the front lines in Ukraine, told the local TV channel N that 13 Peruvians have died in the war in Ukraine so far, according to the AFP news agency.

Salinas said individuals were reportedly offered monthly salaries of between $2,000 and $3,000, and that an estimated 600 Peruvians have been lured since last October to fight for Russia.

In a statement released on Thursday, Moscow’s embassy in Lima acknowledged that Peruvians had signed contracts to join the Russian armed forces.

The Peruvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it had asked the Russian embassy to clarify the situation and obtain information about the location and wellbeing of citizens serving in the Russian military. The ministry noted that Peruvian citizens are required to seek permission from the Foreign Ministry before serving in a foreign military.

The families of some of the victims who claimed they were recruited under false pretences to fight in Ukraine protested outside the ministry in Lima on Thursday, demanding their loved ones be repatriated.

Peru is the latest country to raise complaints against Russia over the deceptive recruitment of foreign nationals to fight in Ukraine.

More than 1,780 citizens from 36 African countries are believed to be fighting alongside Russian forces, according to Ukrainian estimates from February.

Russia has also previously acknowledged enlisting soldiers from North Korea, thousands of whom are estimated to have been killed or wounded in battle, as part of a military pact agreed between Moscow and Pyongyang.

It’s so big that it crosses two different continents

The world’s biggest lake is so large that it is the same size as Japan. There are more than 304 million lakes worldwide, filled with slowly moving or standing water.

Many of the largest in the world can even be classed as inland seas. However, the lakes are still landlocked and connected to the oceans via rivers or narrow channels.

The Caspian Sea is the largest lake in the world, with a surface area of 386,400 sq km (149,200 sq mi). It sits across both Europe and Asia.

The huge lake is bordered by Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan. Its surface is about 27 metres below sea level.

In comparison, the Caspian Sea is almost five times as large as Lake Superior, which lies on the border of Canada and the US and covers 82,000 sq km (31,660 sq mi).

The Caspian Sea is so large that it accounts for up to 44% of the world’s lake waters.

The Caspian Sea is believed to be around 30 million years old and became landlocked about 5.5 million years ago. Europe’s longest river, the Volga, flows into the Caspian Sea and is the main freshwater source.

Due to this flow, the Caspian Sea’s water is almost fresh. Over 130 rivers go into the Caspian Sea, including the Ural River and the Kura River.

There are several small islands in the lake, with most of them in the North. Some islands are near the coasts, but none are found in the deeper parts.

Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, is the largest city by the Caspian Sea, with others also including Astara in Iran, Atyrau in Kazakhstan and Derbent in Russia.

The lake is home to a wide range of species, and it is particularly known for its caviar and oil.

Sadly, pollution from the oil industry and dams on rivers that drain into the lake have harmed its ecosystem.

Due to global warming, it has been reported that the depth of the sea will decrease by nine to 18 meters.

About 850 animal and more than 500 plant species live in the Caspian, many of which are endemic. Six critically endangered species of sturgeon live in its waters, as well as the unique Caspian seal and beluga.

Despite efforts to rebuild ties with Western nations, Syria remains heavily dependent on Russia for its oil supply. Since the fall of Bashar al Assad in late 2024, shipments from Russia have surged, making Moscow the primary supplier of crude to Syria.

This shift comes even as the new government in Damascus seeks closer alignment with Europe and the United States. The contradiction highlights the economic constraints facing a country still recovering from years of war and isolation.

Rising Dependence on Russian Oil
Russian oil exports to Syria have increased significantly, now covering a large portion of the country’s energy needs. Domestic production remains far below demand, leaving Syria reliant on imports to sustain basic economic activity.

Before 2025, Iran had been Syria’s main supplier, but that relationship ended following political changes in Damascus. Russia quickly stepped in, becoming the first to resume large scale shipments after the leadership transition.

Limited Alternatives and Structural Weakness
Syria’s options remain extremely limited. Years of conflict have weakened its economy, reduced purchasing power, and restricted access to global financial systems. Even after the easing of Western sanctions, integration into international markets remains slow and incomplete.

Efforts to secure alternative suppliers, including potential deals with regional partners such as Turkey, have so far failed. This leaves Russian supply networks as the most accessible and reliable option in the short term.

Sanctions Risk and Diplomatic Tension
Reliance on Russian oil poses significant risks for Syria’s foreign relations. Continued trade with Moscow could strain ties with Western governments and expose Syria to renewed sanctions, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate.

The situation is further complicated by Russia’s ongoing military presence in Syria, including key naval and air bases. These assets give Moscow continued influence over the country’s strategic direction.

Opaque Supply Chains and Sanctioned Networks
Much of the oil trade is conducted through complex and opaque shipping networks. Tankers linked to sanctioned entities frequently deliver crude to Syrian ports, often using ship to ship transfers to obscure the origin of cargo.

These methods reflect both necessity and constraint. Syria’s exclusion from conventional shipping and financial systems has pushed it toward alternative networks that carry reputational and legal risks.

Supply Gap and Energy Reality
Syria’s domestic oil production remains a fraction of pre war levels, while demand continues to exceed supply. Russian shipments now fill a significant portion of this gap, alongside smaller volumes obtained through informal or regional channels.

This dependency underscores the difficulty of rebuilding an energy sector after prolonged conflict, particularly without strong international investment or infrastructure support.

Analysis
Syria’s reliance on Russian oil reveals the limits of political realignment when economic realities remain unchanged. While Damascus may seek closer ties with the West, its immediate survival depends on securing energy supplies, and Russia is currently the only actor able and willing to meet that need at scale.

For Moscow, the relationship offers continued leverage in Syria despite the fall of its former ally. Energy supply becomes a tool of influence, allowing Russia to maintain a strategic foothold even as political dynamics shift.

At the same time, the arrangement creates long term risks for Syria. Dependence on sanctioned networks could undermine efforts to rebuild credibility with international partners and attract investment. It also leaves the country vulnerable to external pressure, particularly if Western governments decide to enforce stricter controls on Russian energy flows.

Ultimately, Syria is caught between geopolitical ambition and economic necessity. Until it diversifies its energy sources and strengthens its economic foundations, its foreign policy choices will remain constrained by the basic need to keep fuel flowing.

With information from Reuters.

Ukraine used its latest technology to deepen strikes against Russian oil storage, ports and refineries in the past week, bombing targets in the Urals 1,600 kilometres (990 miles) from its borders and prompting protests about “terrorist attacks” from the Kremlin spokesman.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday announced “a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit the potential of Russia’s war”.

The Ukraine Security Service (SBU) later clarified it had struck Transneft’s oil pumping and distribution facility in the city of Perm that day, from where oil was pumped to the Perm refinery and via pipeline in four directions across Russia.

The facility is “a strategically important hub of the main oil transportation system”, said the SBU, and preliminary information suggested that “almost all oil storage tanks are on fire”.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence confirmed the strike and said it had downed 98 Ukrainian UAVs across various regions.

“The Urals are now within reach, be vigilant,” wrote Russia’s presidential envoy to the region, Artem Zhoga.

Ukraine’s campaign has begun to elicit reactions from the Russian government.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the attacks on oil facilities “terrorist attacks”.

A Russian Defence Ministry announcement – that military cadets and a column of equipment would not take part in this year’s Victory Day parade commemorating the end of World War II “due to the current operational situation” – was also widely interpreted as a precaution against potential Ukrainian drone strikes.

Ukraine’s strikes are part of a strategy of depriving Russia of windfall profits from soaring oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Zelenskyy said Russian internal documents seen by his foreign intelligence service admitted that Ukraine had deprived oil offloading ports of much of their capacity.

Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea had lost 13 percent and 43 percent of capacity, respectively, and the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk 38 percent.

“We believe that such internal Russian data may be underestimated,” Zelenskyy said.

The internal figures roughly agree with a Reuters March estimate that Russia had lost approximately 40 percent of its export capacity.

That translated into revenue losses of $2.3bn in March, Zelenskyy estimated.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said that Ukraine had likely conducted at least 18 strikes against Russian oil infrastructure in April.

Kyiv’s attacks have been “steadily increasing the range, volume, and intensity” with “outsized impacts on Russian oil exports”.

Ukraine struck other oil and military targets during the past week.

On April 23, it damaged three storage tanks at the Gorky oil pumping station in Nizhny Novgorod and struck the Novokuibyshevsk petrochemical plant in Samara.

The next day, it destroyed two production facilities at the Atlant-Aero factory in Taganrog, Rostov, which builds the Molniya drones used to attack Ukrainian cities.

On Sunday, Ukraine struck the Yaroslavl oil refinery, and on Tuesday, they struck the Tuapse oil refinery on the Black Sea for the third time this month. Even before this latest strike, at least 24 oil storage tanks at the site had been destroyed, said Ukraine’s head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko.

Russian President Vladimir Putin dispatched his Civil Defence, Emergencies, and Disaster Relief minister, Alexander Kurenkov, to oversee the response personally.

An emerging air power

Ukraine has been developing its own long-range strike capabilities and devotes 20 percent of its defence resources to new technologies, said Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

One of its leading drone manufacturers, Wild Hornets, recently said a drone operator had used its remote piloting system to fly a Sting interceptor drone at a distance of 2,000km (1,240 miles).

On April 23, Fedorov said Ukraine had successfully tested remote control technology that enabled pilots to operate from the relative safety of Kyiv or Lviv, “at distances of hundreds and thousands of kilometres”.

Ukraine is now touting its battlefield innovations in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in the wake of Iran’s attack on the Gulf nations.

Zelenskyy met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh on April 24 to discuss “the export of our Ukrainian security expertise and capabilities in air defence”.

Days later, he said Kyiv produces as many as twice the number of certain types of weapons as the military needed, and that “Ukrainian companies will get a real opportunity to enter the markets of partner countries, provided that our military have the right to take the necessary amount of weapons first”.

The burgeoning relationship with the Gulf, he said, had invoked Moscow’s concern.

“Russia is particularly irritated by our contacts in the Middle East and the Gulf region,” he told Ukrainians on Wednesday.

More surprisingly, he said some allies, too, were irritated by the competition.

“We are also aware of the complex attitude of some of our other partners towards this – partners who would prefer to limit our state’s independence,” Zelenskyy said in an evening video address. “We consider this their mistake.

Russia has continued heavy attacks on Ukraine for the past 24 hours, with several coming overnight on Thursday and in the early hours of Friday. At least one person has been killed and several have been injured.

A Russian drone attack overnight damaged port infrastructure in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region and wounded two people in the Black Sea port city of Odesa, regional Governor Oleh Kiper said on Friday morning.

Two high-rise residential buildings were damaged in the attack, which destroyed apartments and caused fires, Kiper wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

“This night, Russia again massively attacked the civilian infrastructure of the Odesa region: two people were injured,” he said.

Kiper noted that two multistorey residential buildings in Odesa were damaged by drone strikes. Apartments were destroyed and fires broke out at the sites of the hits, and all necessary assistance was being provided to the victims.

The Russian army also attacked the Black Sea shipbuilding town of Mykolaiv with drones, Mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych reported on Facebook.

“As a result of the impact, there is damage in the private sector, and a fire also broke out,” he wrote. He warned residents that the threat is ongoing and urged people to remain sheltered.

On Thursday night, Ukraine launched its fourth drone attack in the past week on Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse, as it continues to target Russian energy infrastructure in a bid to halt oil revenues.

“In Tuapse, as a result of a drone ⁠attack by the ⁠Kyiv regime, a fire broke out on the territory ⁠of the seaport ⁠terminal,” the General ⁠Headquarters in the Krasnodar Region reported on Telegram. It ‌added that emergency crews were working at ‌the ‌site.

Russia hits central Ukraine

The Russian army attacked three districts of the Dnipropetrovsk region in central Ukraine “almost 20 times” with drones and artillery, the head of the Regional Military Administration (OVA), Oleksandr Ganzha, wrote on Telegram.

Ganzha reported that infrastructure was damaged in Kryvyi Rih, where one person was injured.

Ukraine’s news outlet Interfax reported that there were strikes on the Synelnyky district, the Dubovykivska and Petropavlivska communities, where a garage and a car were burned, and residences were damaged.

In the Nikopol district, communities in Nikopol, Marhanetska and Chervonohryhorivska have been affected. A private house was occupied and infrastructure, a petrol station, an administrative building and buses were damaged, Interfax reported.

In Kherson, attacks by drones have continued for the past 24 hours in Kherson, Zymivnyk, Komyshany and Zelenivka.

The head of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, Yaroslav Shanko, wrote on Telegram: “Over the past day, 4 settlements in the Kherson community have been subjected to enemy attacks. As a result of Russian attacks in the Kherson community, 1 person was killed and 8 were injured.”

Private houses and multistorey buildings, an administrative building, warehouses, buses and civilian cars have been damaged.

Prosecutors say the man, identified only as ‘Sergej K’, has been in ‘continuous contact’ with Russian intelligence.

German authorities have arrested a Kazakh man in Berlin on suspicion of spying for Russia, according to the German Federal Prosecutor’s Office.

Identified only as Sergej K, the man had been “in continuous contact from Germany with a Russian intelligence service” since at least May last year, the office said in a statement on Wednesday, a day after the arrest.

Prosecutors said Sergej K provided his Russian handler with details about German military aid for Ukraine, including companies involved in developing drones and robotic systems. He also allegedly sent photos of NATO military convoys and public buildings in Berlin.

Other activities included offering to find other espionage agents in Germany, prosecutors added, but they did not make clear whether he had done so.

There was no immediate reaction from Kazakhstan or Russia.

Previous cases

The case is the latest in a string of Moscow-linked espionage and disinformation plots German authorities claim to have discovered since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Two German-Russian dual nationals were arrested in 2024 on suspicion of plotting sabotage attacks on United States military sites in Germany to undermine Western military support for Ukraine.

German police have also arrested various alleged “disposable” agents, known to carry out sabotage and espionage without any formal training for Russia in exchange for small payments.

Earlier this month, Berlin summoned the Russian ambassador to condemn what it called “direct threats” against “targets in Germany”.

Berlin’s Federal Foreign Office said at the time that the threats were intended to undermine Germany’s support for Ukraine. “Our response is clear: we will not be intimidated. Such threats and all forms of espionage in Germany are completely unacceptable,” the Foreign Office said.

Germany has also accused “state-sponsored” Russian hackers of carrying out an “intolerable” 2023 cyberattack on members of the Social Democratic Party, a charge that Russia’s embassy in Germany “categorically rejected”.

Meanwhile, Russia has essentially banned Germany’s international broadcaster Deutsche Welle on the grounds that it produces “hostile anti-Russian propaganda”.

Moscow has repeatedly denied any involvement in Germany-based espionage schemes.