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The Terror Strategy Behind Fuel Shortages Crippling Mali 

On a hot October morning, fuel pumps at a dozen service stations in Bamako, the capital of Mali, sputtered to a stop. Drivers who had spent hours waiting in line left empty-handed. Motorbikes, taxis, and vans idled where they stood. Market stalls that depended on refrigeration closed early. Hospitals began counting fuel reserves. 

What appeared to Mali residents as an everyday shortage was, in fact, the result of a deliberate, sustained campaign by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, known as JNIM, an Al-Qaeda affiliate operating in the Sahel, to choke the flow of fuel into the country. The group has moved beyond hit-and-run attacks to economic warfare, burning tankers, ambushing convoys, and enforcing a de facto embargo on fuel imports.

Videos shared online after the Oct. 21 attack showed dozens of burning tankers in Zégoua, near the border with Côte d’Ivoire. JNIM later released a propaganda message claiming responsibility for ambushing 37 vehicles that day.

JNIM propaganda message claiming the Oct. 21 attack.  Translation: “A Malian army convoy escorting fuel tankers was ambushed between Sikasso and Ziguwa this evening. God is great, and glory be to God.” 

The first publicly reported attacks began in early September, when the group blocked routes to Kayes and Nioro du Sahel in western Mali, bordering Mauritania and Senegal. That same day, Sept. 3, JNIM reportedly abducted six fuel tanker drivers from Senegal.

Despite an increased military presence, the jihadists struck again on Sept. 13 and 14, torching over 40 tankers under military escort while transporting from Senegal to Mali along the Diédiéni–Kolokani corridor. 

The consequences have rippled far beyond queues at fuel stations. There is currently a sharp inflation that has affected commercial activities. Mines operations have also slowed, and there is a steady erosion of the state’s control over basic life. Across the country, schools have also been closed, further disrupting daily life and cutting several young people off from education.

The residents of Mali expressed their grievances, urging the military junta led by Assimi Goita to step up the fight and counter the group’s atrocities.

JNIM has also sought to control the narrative. In a video released in early September, a spokesperson justified the blockade as retaliation against what he called “the bandit government’s persecution of the population” and “the closure of gas stations”.

Screenshot from a video showing JNIM Jihadists attacking fuel tankers in Mali. 

This rhetoric points to a deeper cause. Mali’s government recently banned the sale of fuel outside official stations, a measure meant to disrupt the jihadists’ supply chains. 

Blockades and ambushes 

Mali is a landlocked country in West Africa, and it imports most of its fuel by road from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. Convoys, sometimes more than 100 tankers, travel through routes to Bamako, and that includes passing through jihadist-controlled areas. 

JNIM have staged checkpoints on key routes where they conduct their attacks by igniting the lead vehicles to create conflagrations. They have destroyed dozens of tankers, with a single ambush in mid-September affecting at least 40 tankers. Videos circulated online showed burning wrecks and stranded drivers. 

The attacks are designed to make transport by road both physically dangerous and economically untenable. As a result, many private companies have stopped sending fuel tankers; others now insist on military escorts, which often become targets in themselves, and neighbouring countries hesitate to transit fuel through overtly dangerous routes. 

Analysts note that by choking off fuel transport, JNIM aims to undermine public confidence in the junta’s competence, stir unrest, and increase its leverage in negotiating local control, taxation, or governance arrangements in contested areas. The approach aligns with Al-Qaeda’s long-standing strategy of exploiting social grievances and state fragility to entrench influence.

The group’s broader objective is to pressure Mali’s military government, which seized power in a coup five years ago, while expanding its own authority through informal taxation and control of smuggling routes. JNIM now holds sway over vast areas of Mali, particularly across the tri-border zone with Burkina Faso and Niger.

The economic shock 

Since the start of the attacks, Bamako and other urban centres have seen fuel queues stretch for hours and a surge in black-market operations, the very activity the government intended to stamp out in its recent ban.

One video posted on X on Oct. 23 captured the desperation: a long procession of cars trailing a fuel tanker to a station, hoping to secure a few litres.

Screenshot from a video showing a fuel tanker being followed by a large number of vehicles to get the fuel. 

The shortages have cascaded through every layer of the economy. Power supply has been hit as electricity utilities begin implementing emergency plans amid dwindling diesel reserves. For households dependent on private generators, costs have spiked overnight.

The price of goods transported by road has risen sharply in markets across Mali. Small traders who buy fresh produce daily for resale in Bamako say profits have evaporated. For ordinary families, higher transport costs translate directly into more expensive food.

Reports from the weeks following the convoy attacks documented widespread closures of petrol stations and soaring costs of travel and delivery. The military halted certain deliveries to mines over security concerns, and some tankers destined for large gold operations were stopped to avoid creating easy targets. 

For a country already weakened by years of conflict, coups, and economic instability, the fuel blockade has become a multiplier of hardship, a crisis that compounds every existing vulnerability.

Losing the grip 

At first glance, the scarcity hurts everyone, and JNIM gains leverage. 

By controlling or denying access to commodities, the group converts scarcity into political capital. In areas under its influence, it already collects taxes, fines, and “security levies” from traders. Smugglers who can move fuel through alternative routes find new profit, often paying bribes or cutting deals with armed groups to secure passage. 

Meanwhile, formal businesses tied to regulated supply chains and formal employment lose trust and capacity. Local elites who depend on state contracts feel the pinch. The junta, unable to guarantee basic services, faces a mounting legitimacy crisis. Analysts warn that such conditions hollow out institutions and entrench shadow economies, allowing parallel systems of governance to take root.

The government’s response has been uneven; part denial, part damage control. Initially, officials blamed the shortages on heavy rains delaying tanker arrivals. But when JNIM released its propaganda videos claiming responsibility, public outrage forced an acknowledgement of the crisis.

“The sellers should make things easy for the population; the hydrocarbon sellers should not raise the prices at this time of crisis,” said one resident in Bamako, interviewed by DW Africa, voicing his frustration over the difficulties of getting the fuel. 

The armed forces have since launched airstrikes, escorted convoys, and convened emergency committees to protect fuel shipments. Yet these measures have proven costly and largely ineffective.

Transitional Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga, who convened an interministerial crisis management committee, announced further steps, including price controls, new regional depots, and increased convoy protection, but they have done little to stem the attacks. Some local reports suggest negotiations or attempts at local truces in areas where the terrorists have influence, but negotiations are politically sensitive for a government that prizes a posture of strength.  

Complicating the situation further is the evolving role of foreign paramilitaries. The Wagner Group’s replacement by the so-called Africa Corps has yet to yield stability, and persistent accusations of human rights abuses risk undermining their counterterrorism efforts.

The longer the blockade continues, the sharper the choices before Mali’s leaders: concede territory and influence to armed groups, or escalate military operations that risk civilian casualties and further infrastructure damage. Either way, the cost of control grows heavier with each passing week.

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“Bad Fuel” May Have Caused Back-To-Back Nimitz Aircraft Crashes: Trump

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that contaminated fuel may have been a factor in the U.S. Navy’s loss of an MH-60R Seahawk helicopter and an F/A-18F Super Hornet in the South China Sea on Sunday. In a very strange chain of events, the two aircraft, both assigned to the supercarrier USS Nimitz, went down within 30 minutes of each other while on separate missions. The crews of the Seahawk and the Super Hornet were both safely retrieved.

“They’re gonna let me know pretty soon,” Trump told reporters while flying aboard Air Force One on Monday. “I think they should be able to find out. It could be bad fuel. I mean, it’s possible it’s bad fuel. Very unusual that that would happen.”

Asked whether he thought “foul play” led to the crashes, Trump said “I don’t think so,” and reiterated his contaminated fuel theory. 

“We don’t believe it was anything nefarious,” a U.S. Navy official told The War Zone.

The U.S. Navy is sending the supercarrier USS Nimitz and the rest of its strike group to the Middle East amid a new buildup of forces in the region ostensibly for defensive purposes, U.S. officials have told TWZ.
The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz experienced two aviation mishaps in a short span of time in the South China Sea on Sunday. (USN) USN

U.S. Pacific Fleet (PACFLEET), which oversees naval operations in the South China Sea region, declined to comment on Trump’s statements about the crashes and referred us to the White House. We have yet to receive a response and will update this story with any pertinent information provided.

The first of the two mishaps occurred about 2:45 PM local time, according to PACFLEET.

That’s when the Seahawk, assigned to the “Battle Cats” of Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 73 (HSM-73), “went down in the waters of the South China Sea while conducting routine operations from” the Nimitz, a PACFLEET release stated. “Search and rescue assets assigned to Carrier Strike Group 11 safely recovered all three crew members.”

250827-N-NX999-1035 U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (Aug. 27, 2025) U.S. Sailors conduct maintenance on an MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter, attached to Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron (HSM) 73, on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (Official U.S. Navy photo)
U.S. Navy sailors conduct maintenance on an MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter, attached to Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron (HSM) 73, on the flight deck of the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (Official U.S. Navy photo) Seaman Chad Hughes

A half hour later, an F/A-18F Super Hornet fighter assigned to the “Fighting Redcocks” of Strike Fighter Squadron 22 (VFA-22) “also went down in the waters of the South China Sea while conducting routine operations from Nimitz,” PACFLEET announced. “Both crew members successfully ejected and were also safely recovered by search and rescue assets assigned to Carrier Strike Group 11. All personnel involved are safe and in stable condition. The cause of both incidents is currently under investigation.”

250715-N-CK885-2099 U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (July 15, 2025) An F/A-18F Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 22, launches from the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) during flight operations in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (Official U.S. Navy photo)
An F/A-18F Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 22, launches from the flight deck of the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) during flight operations in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (Official U.S. Navy photo) Petty Officer 2nd Class Jaron Wills

While the particular circumstances of the recent mishaps in the South China Sea remain under investigation, fuel contaminated with water and/or other foreign substances, or that otherwise falls below specifications, can present serious problems for aircraft, including causing engines to fail in flight. Checking fuel quality is a common part of an investigation following any aviation mishap, military or civilian.

In addition, carrier-based aviation operations present unique conditions when it comes to the transfer of fuel, both into storage tanks on the ship to begin with, which can occur while the carrier is underway at sea, as well as in port, and then into aircraft. Personnel aboard all Navy carriers perform regular fuel quality checks at multiple steps in the fuel distribution process.

Navy sailors seen inspecting a fuel sample taken from an aircraft aboard the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in 2005. USN

Trump’s comments about the mishaps came as the President is traveling throughout Asia. He is scheduled to have a meeting on Thursday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss trade issues.

Nimitz, the Navy’s oldest carrier, is on its final cruise before its planned decommissioning next year. The flattop is currently in the process of returning to its home port in Naval Base Kitsap in Washington State after having been deployed to the Middle East for most of the summer, primarily as part of the U.S. response to attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on commercial shipping.

An armed Super Hornet launches from the USS Nimitz, sailing somewhere around the Middle East in June 2025. USN

Also known by its hull number CVN-68, the Nimitz, which was first commissioned into service in 1975, is the lead ship in its class. The vessel’s design built on the Navy’s prior experience with its pioneering nuclear-powered supercarrier, the one-of-a-kind USS Enterprise (CVN-65), which served from 1961 to 2012.

The Navy began preparing for the Nimitz’s demise in 2023, which you can read more about here. The Newport News Shipbuilding division of Huntington Ingalls Industries has received multiple contracts already to begin laying the groundwork for removing the nuclear fuel from the carrier’s reactors and other aspects of the disposal process.

Whether contaminated fuel turns out to be a factor in, or even the root cause of the Seahawk and Super Hornet going down in the South China Sea, remains to be seen. U.S. military aviation accidents typically take weeks if not months to complete.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Howard is a Senior Staff Writer for The War Zone, and a former Senior Managing Editor for Military Times. Prior to this, he covered military affairs for the Tampa Bay Times as a Senior Writer. Howard’s work has appeared in various publications including Yahoo News, RealClearDefense, and Air Force Times.


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Taiwan Is for Sale – Modern Diplomacy

The world is closely watching the potential meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, which could take place at the APEC summit at the end of October, as well as the formal state visit in January of next year. Undoubtedly, the top priority for both the U.S. and China is to ease tensions, with Washington even more eager than Beijing to achieve a “truce.” This is because Beijing imposed large-scale countermeasures against Washington in October, in retaliation for the various sanctions the U.S. has levied on China since August. China’s countermeasures caught the U.S. off guard and left it struggling to respond.

China’s strict restrictions on rare earth exports have shocked the West, particularly the automotive and semiconductor industries. On the other hand, China’s halt to soybean purchases from the U.S. has frustrated Trump’s most loyal supporters. Washington’s initial reaction was one of anger, with threats of retaliation, but within days, its tone softened. This signals that Beijing has struck at the opponent’s sore spot, while Washington lacks effective tools to fight back.

“You have no cards to play.” Trump’s famous rebuke to Zelenskyy has gone global and will undoubtedly go down in history. Embarrassingly, Trump now finds himself in a similar predicament with Beijing: nearly “out of cards.” To demonstrate that he still has some in hand, Trump has finally pulled Taiwan out of his pocket.

On October 20, in an interview with Bloomberg, Trump listed Taiwan as one of the four top priorities in U.S.-China negotiations—alongside rare earths, soybeans, and fentanyl—and stated, “We’ll get along very well with China.”

According to a report in The Guardian, Trump explicitly said that China “doesn’t want” to invade Taiwan and predicted that “nothing will happen.” He described Taiwan as “an apple in China’s eyes,” emphasizing that “America is the strongest military power in the world by far” and “no one dares to mess with us.” In a buddying tone, he added, “I love my relationship with President Xi. We have a great relationship, and that on the Taiwan issue, “we’ll get along very well.”

In the following days, Trump repeatedly made similar statements in the media. However, on October 26, during an interview aboard his plane en route to Asia, he refused to discuss the Taiwan issue and warned that if China invades Taiwan, “it would be very dangerous for China.”

Trump’s rhetoric follows a very simple logic, as is well known: he fabricates bargaining chips out of thin air, uses soft language to lure the opponent to the negotiating table, then employs tough rhetoric to hint at his confidence in making the opponent yield, while refusing to reveal his hand in advance.

In mid-October, the RAND Corporation—a think tank closely tied to the U.S. military—released a report titled Stabilizing the U.S.-China Rivalry, urging Washington to abandon zero-sum thinking and instead adopt a “step-back” approach to stabilize U.S.-China relations and avoid military conflict. On the Taiwan front, the report suggests that the U.S. should encourage Taiwan and China to create shared interests and emotional bonds that gradually lay the groundwork for reunification. This proposal has been interpreted in Taiwan as “gradual unification,” drawing widespread attention and viewed as a signal of the U.S. abandoning Taiwan.

However, rather than “the U.S. abandoning Taiwan,” the RAND report is more accurately a “delaying tactic,” aiming to prolong the status quo in the Taiwan Strait through a “step-back” strategy, thereby securing U.S. strategic interests in the First Island Chain for the next 5-10 years.

The realist tone of the RAND report is becoming the mainstream view in the U.S. For instance, Time magazine recently published an article that enraged Taiwan’s ruling party: The U.S. Must Beware of Taiwan’s Reckless Leader. The piece argues that Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s reckless emphasis on Taiwan’s sovereignty is dragging the U.S. into the risk of military conflict with China. Furthermore, it stresses that Taiwan is a core interest for China but merely a non-treaty ally for the U.S.— America has no reason to get embroiled in war for Taiwan’s sake and should instead invest resources in treaty allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.

In other words, the restraint-oriented thinking in the U.S. that advocates “focusing on the big picture” is gradually gaining the upper hand. Such arguments often come from individuals and organizations familiar with U.S. military capabilities. Simply put, this rhetoric merely underscores a fact: the U.S. military has low odds of winning a war against China, and it’s not worth risking for a non-treaty ally.

Of course, hawkish thinking in the U.S. remains resilient. In contrast to the restrainers, hawks believe that losing Taiwan would severely damage U.S. credibility in East Asia, and from a long-term perspective, the U.S. would suffer more harm than good, thus stressing that “Taiwan is not for sale” and advocating continuing arms sales to Taiwan, even shifting from “strategic ambiguity” to a “strategic clarity” policy.

But we know Trump doesn’t think that far ahead. Before he leaves office, Taiwan must be “cashed in” to feed this narcissist’s ego. In other words, the one inevitably waving the “Taiwan is for sale” sign is Trump.

In fact, for the West, Taiwan is rapidly depreciating because its most valuable asset—the semiconductor industry—is being hollowed out by the U.S. Taiwan’s vice president recently admitted that not only TSMC but also the ruling party has decided to replicate an identical semiconductor supply chain cluster in the U.S.

Taiwan’s authorities explain this investment plan as “avoiding over-reliance on the single Chinese market,” but those familiar with the semiconductor industry know that Taiwan has always relied on the U.S. market, not China—especially for high-end chips. Relocating the industry to the U.S. will only increase corporate costs, raise chip prices, and introduce even more unpredictable risks.

Rare earths are one such unpredictable risk. Semiconductor manufacturing requires rare earths, albeit in small proportions, but without them, chips cannot be produced. If Beijing wants to keep the semiconductor industry in Taiwan, it could completely ban rare earth exports to the U.S. while continuing normal supplies to Taiwan. Even if the U.S. tries to use Taiwan as a rare earth transshipment hub, that’s impossible, as China’s export controls can precisely calculate buyers’ demand volumes, eliminating any transshipment possibilities.

A more fundamental approach would be to ban rare earth exports to both Taiwan and the U.S., driving Taiwan’s value to rock bottom and preventing Trump from demanding too high a price.

In line with Trump’s style, consolidating proxies across the First Island Chain to form a military deterrence against China is undoubtedly another chip in his hand, but this card no longer works on China. Throughout this year, Beijing has repeatedly flexed its military muscles to signal to the U.S. that China cannot be contained. The U.S. military’s front line has effectively retreated to Guam, and Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and South Korea all know that the U.S. is pulling back. Without their backer, they dare not confront China.

The key point is that China understands the U.S.’s strategic goal is to stabilize U.S.-China relations, not to break ties. Therefore, only by doubling down on countermeasures against the U.S. can China achieve a stable state of “competition without rupture,” and facts have proven that a hardline strategy leads to a “TACO” outcome. Beijing has no reason or room to concede, especially on the Taiwan issue.

China is testing various tools to offset Western sanctions, leaving the entire West shrouded in fear and anger over rare earth cutoffs, yet powerless to retaliate. This proves that countermeasures to fully offset Western sanctions are nearly complete. If there’s any vulnerability, it’s the financial defense line, which is not yet fully prepared. This explains why China is actively promoting the internationalization of the renminbi and continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. debt.

On the other hand, Taiwan’s largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), replaced its party chairman in October with someone determined to change its U.S. policy. Due to the ruling party’s declining popularity, the KMT is poised to win majority voter support in next year’s elections and those in 2028. The new chairman opposes U.S. directives—demanding that Taiwan raise defense spending to 5% of GDP—and extends a peace olive branch to Beijing, potentially leading to dramatic changes in Taiwan-U.S. relations, a development unfavorable to Washington.

Admittedly, the KMT’s new chairman may neither be able nor willing to convince the Taiwanese people to unify with mainland China, but she could reverse the status quo where Taiwan’s major parties are all pro-U.S. Her support from over half the party members stems from two public opinion bases: first, acknowledging oneself as Chinese; second, opposing the U.S. hollowing out Taiwan. According to polls, 4 million KMT supporters accept Chinese identity, and over half (more than 9 million) of all voters, regardless of party, oppose the U.S. hollowing out Taiwan.

While Taiwanese public opinion is divided, most Taiwanese people oppose the Trump administration’s plundering of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry and also oppose war across the strait—this is the main reason for the ruling party’s sagging approval ratings.

A “distrust of America” sentiment pervades Taiwanese society, along with dissatisfaction toward the anti-China president, prompting Beijing to establish “Taiwan Restoration Day” (October 25) to evoke Taiwanese people’s historical memory of China’s recovery of Taiwan after World War II. This aims to maximize nationalism to offset separatism and reduce Taiwanese resistance to unification. At the same time, Beijing uses this move to send a clear signal to the U.S. and neighboring countries: China is determined to resolve the Taiwan issue and is working to remove all obstacles.

Beijing now holds a strong hand; even the U.S.’s “Taiwan card” has become a card China can counter with. In line with Xi Jinping’s decision-making style, he will concede when unprepared, but once fully ready, he will strike suddenly, catching the opponent off guard.

Trump should be very aware that his current position is precarious, making it hard to reverse Beijing’s advantageous stance. Even the “chip card” is no longer effective. Thus, aside from selling Taiwan, he has no other good options—and this is the situation most feared by Taiwan’s elites: the window for “maintaining the status quo” is closing.

However, the sentiments of Taiwan’s elites are also shifting with the situation. Due to the KMT’s policy pivot, more and more Taiwanese elites may pragmatically reassess Taiwan’s future in the coming years, as KMT supporters lead the way, turning back to demand that elites devise countermeasures to change cross-strait relations and foster peace.

When U.S. hawks emphasize “Taiwan is not for sale,” it ironically highlights America’s intent to sell Taiwan. Yet, if this can lead to a peaceful resolution, the trend should be welcomed rather than doubted. After all, there are no winners in war, and those sacrificed are often innocent civilians.

Taiwan is for sale—the buyer is only one. The fear is that Trump might overprice it, backfiring and once again squandering his chance at a Nobel Peace Prize.

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Chicago-to-Germany flight diverted to Boston after two teens stabbed

A Lufthansa flight from Chicago to Frankfurt, Germany, was diverted to Boston on Saturday after two teens were stabbed, allegedly by a 28-year-old man with a metal fork. File Photo by Bill Greenblatt/UPI | License Photo

Oct. 27 (UPI) — A Lufthansa flight from Chicago to Germany was diverted to Boston over the weekend after a 28-year-old man stabbed two minors with a metal fork, federal prosecutors said.

Praneeth Kumar Usiripalli, 28, was charged Monday with one count of assault with intent to do bodily harm while traveling on an aircraft in the special aircraft jurisdiction of the United States.

Lufthansa flight 431 departed Chicago O’Hare International Airport at 4:26 p.m. local time Saturday, en route to Frankfurt, Germany, but was diverted to Boston as it was flying over Canada’s Newfoundland and Labrador, according to air traffic tracker flightaware.com.

According to federal prosecutors, the diversion was allegedly caused by Usiripalli.

Court documents state that following meal service, a 17-year-old boy who had been sleeping in a middle seat awoke to the suspect standing over him. Usiripalli allegedly stabbed the teen in the left clavicle area with a metal fork.

The suspect is then accused of lunging at a second 17-year-old boy who was sitting to the first victim’s right, stabbing him in the back of the head.

As flight crew tried to restrain Usiripalli, he allegedly “formed a gun with his fingers, put it in his mouth and pulled an imaginary trigger.”

He is also accused of slapping a female passenger and attempting to slap a flight crew member.

According to flightaware, the flight landed at Logan International Airport at 10:48 p.m. On its arrival, Usiripalli was arrested and taken into police custody, federal prosecutors said.

The Justice Department said Usiripalli, an Indian national, had no lawful status in the United States but had previously been admitted to the country on a student visa. He had been enrolled in a biblical studies master’s program.

He is to expected to appear in a Boston federal court at a later date.

If convicted, Usiripalli faces up to 10 years in prison, followed by up to three years of supervised release and a fine of $250,000.

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China, ASEAN sign enhanced free trade pact amid Trump tariffs | ASEAN News

China and 11-member regional bloc sign an upgraded version of their free trade pact, as both weather the impact of the US tariffs.

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have upgraded their free trade agreement as trade between the two regions continues to rise in the shadow of United States President Donald Trump’s trade war.

The trade pact was signed on the sidelines of the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday, in a ceremony witnessed by Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

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The “3.0 version” of the deal will broaden collaboration on “infrastructure, digital and green transition, trade facilitation and people-to-people exchanges”, according to China’s State Council. It builds on the region’s first free trade pact with China, which came into force in 2010.

The 11-member ASEAN and China have become each other’s largest trade partners in recent years, thanks to the China Plus One supply chain that emerged after Trump’s trade war with China in 2018.

Trade between China and ASEAN has already hit $785bn in the nine months of 2025, up 9.6 percent year-on-year. Much of this trade reflects integrated manufacturing supply chains, but it also increasingly includes finished goods from China that are destined for Southeast Asian consumers.

In his remarks to the ASEAN summit on Tuesday, Li praised China and the bloc’s deepening trade relationship, and spoke of his expectation for “expanded and higher-quality economic cooperation” under the upgraded trade pact.

“Cooperation in various fields has yielded fruitful results, trade volume continues to grow steadily, and ASEAN governments have promoted even closer people-to-people exchanges,” he said.

Zhiwu Chen, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera that the “3.0” trade pact comes at a time when China is trying to shore up its relationship with ASEAN.

“This is very important for China, as its trade tensions with the US and EU have been rising, and China needs ASEAN countries. At the same time, this is a time for ASEAN to take advantage of the window of opportunities precisely for the same reason,” he said, describing the deal as a “win-win outcome for both sides”.

In his remarks, Li also took aim at Trump’s tariffs, which have disrupted global trade, and marked the most protectionist policy pursued by the US government since the 1930s.

“Unilateralism and protectionism have seriously disrupted the global economic and trade order. External forces are increasingly interfering in our region, and many countries have been unfairly subjected to high tariffs,” Li said.

The US president also attended the ASEAN summit on Sunday, and is due to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this week.

While at ASEAN, Trump signed trade deals with Cambodia and Malaysia, as well as framework agreements with Thailand and Vietnam, highlighting his preference for bilateral trade deals hammered out in one-on-one discussions.

The deals appeared to finalise Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” rate on the four countries, which were set earlier this year at 19 to 20 percent.

Tariffs and trade barriers are also expected to headline Trump’s meeting with Xi, after US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent announced that the two sides had reached a “framework agreement” on tariffs this week.

Earlier this month, Trump had threatened to impose a tariff of 100 percent on Chinese goods by November 1, after China strengthened export controls on rare earth minerals. Bessent said the framework agreement should help both sides “avoid” a tariff hike, according to Reuters.

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US judge asks for assurance Abrego Garcia won’t be deported to Liberia | Migration News

Trump administration is seeking to deport Abrego Garcia to West African country, in move decried by lawyers.

A federal judge in the United States has requested assurances from the administration of President Donald Trump that officials will not deport Kilmar Abrego Garcia while an injunction barring his deportation remains in place.

The demand from District Judge Paula Xinis on Monday comes after US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) filed a notice last week of a plan to deport Abrego Garcia to the West African nation of Liberia.

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She asked why the government is not instead deporting Abrego Garcia to Costa Rica, a Salvadoran man living in the United States, where he has said he is willing to go because the government there has promised he would be welcomed as a legal immigrant and not re-deported to El Salvador.

“Any insight you can shed on why we’re continuing this hearing when you could deport him to a third country tomorrow?” Xinis asked government lawyers.

Abrego Garcia was wrongfully deported to El Salvador by the Trump administration March, in violation of a 2019 court order barring him from being sent back to his homeland.

He was returned to the US under a judge’s order in June, but swiftly charged with human smuggling in Tennessee. He is seeking dismissal of that case.

Administration officials have repeatedly accused Abrego Garcia of being a member of the MS-13 gang, a claim that has never been proven in court.

Abrego Garcia’s lawyers have said he is being targeted for political retribution.

Responding to the plan to deport Abrego Garcia to Liberia, lawyer Simon Sandoval-Moshenberg called the move “cruel and unconstitutional”. He noted that Abrego Garcia has no ties to the country.

The Trump administration has repeatedly sought to deport individuals unable to be sent to their homelands to so-called third countries. Advocacy groups have argued that the deportations violate due process rights and that immigrants are being sent to countries with long histories of human rights violations.

Abrego Garcia has separately applied for asylum in the US.

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Trump rules out VP run in 2028, but says he ‘would love’ a third term | Donald Trump News

US president muses about a third term in office despite the constitution barring him from doing so.

United States President Donald Trump has ruled out running for vice president in the 2028 election but said he “would love” to serve a third term in office.

The comments on Monday came despite the US Constitution barring anyone from being elected to the country’s presidency for a third time.

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Trump, who first served as president from 2017 to 2021, began his second term in January.

The 79-year-old has repeatedly flirted with the idea of serving beyond the constitutionally mandated two terms, joking about it at rallies and teasing supporters with “Trump 2028” hats.

Some allies have taken those signals seriously, suggesting that they are exploring legal or political pathways to make it happen.

Some have said that one way around the prohibition would be for Trump to run as vice president, while another candidate stood for election as president and resigned, letting Trump again assume the presidency.

Asked whether he would run for vice president in November 2028, Trump told reporters on board Air Force One on Monday that he “would be allowed to do that”.

But, he added, he would not go down that route.

“I wouldn’t do that. I think it’s too cute. Yeah, I would rule that out because it’s too cute. I think the people wouldn’t like that. It’s too cute. It’s not – it wouldn’t be right.”

epa12471544 An attendee at a Diwali celebration in the Oval Office wears a 'Trump 2028' hat to the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 21 October 2025. EPA/ALLISON ROBBERT / POOL
An attendee at a Diwali celebration in the Oval Office wears a ‘Trump 2028’ hat, in Washington, DC, on October 21 [Allison Robbert/EPA/Pool]

Scholars, however, say Trump is barred from running for vice president, too, because he is not eligible to be president. The 12th Amendment to the US Constitution reads, “No person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.”

Referring to the possibility of a third term as president on Monday, Trump said: “I would love to do it. I have my best numbers ever.”

When pressed by a reporter whether he was not ruling out a third term, he said, “Am I not ruling it out? I mean, you’ll have to tell me.”

Asked about whether he would be willing to fight in court over the legality of another presidential bid, Trump responded, “I haven’t really thought about it.”

The US president also said that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were “great people” who could seek the presidency in 2028.

“I think if they ever formed a group, it’d be unstoppable,” he said. “I really do. I believe that.”

Trump made the comments on board the Air Force One as he flew from Malaysia to Japan.

He attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur over the weekend and, following a stopover in Tokyo, will fly to South Korea to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

He will be meeting with several world leaders in South Korea, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.

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Delta flight attendant accidentally deploys emergency slide at airport

A Delta Air Lines flight attendant “inadvertently deployed an emergency slide,” before departing Pittsburgh International Airport over the weekend, forcing passengers to rebook. The mistake could cost the airline hundreds-of-thousands of dollars. File Photo by John Dickerson/UPI | License Photo

Oct. 27 (UPI) — A Delta Air Lines flight attendant inadvertently deployed the plane’s emergency slide, before departing Pittsburgh International Airport over the weekend, forcing passengers to rebook and costing the airline “as much as $200,000.”

Passengers, bound for Salt Lake City on the Airbus A220-300, were rebooked onto other flights Saturday night and Sunday morning.

“While the aircraft door was being opened, crew inadvertently deployed an emergency slide at the gate in PIT,” a Delta Air Lines spokesperson said in a statement. “As a result, customers on the return flight from PIT to SLC were rebooked on other Delta flights to their destination later that evening or the following morning.”

The expensive error could cost the airline “as much as $200,000” for passengers’ hotel accommodations and repacking the slide, which can cost $12,000, according to aviation website simplifying.com. Other industry sources put the cost to repack an emergency slide on Airbus A220 models between $50,000 and $100,000.

The flight attendant told passengers he had 26 years of flying experience and admitted he accidentally raised the door handle while arming the plane for departure, which triggered the emergency slide to inflate.

“He did apologize and was quite flustered, cited over the 26 years of career, it never happened,” one passenger said.

Emergency slides are built to fully deploy in seconds in order to get passengers to safety as quickly as possible. In this case, the slide deployed against the jet bridge. That left passengers trapped inside the plane for more than an hour as engineers worked to disassemble it.

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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,342 | Russia-Ukraine war News

Here are the key events from day 1,342 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is how things stand on Tuesday, October 28, 2025:

Fighting

  • Russian attacks on Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhia killed a 44-year-old man and wounded several others, Governor Ivan Fedorov said on Monday, as the death toll from other assaults on Sunday continued to rise.
  • Ukrainian officials said the attacks on Sunday killed two people in the eastern Donetsk region and a 69-year-old man in the northern Sumy region. Fifteen others, including two children, were wounded in Sumy, police there said.
  • Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) claimed the killing of Lieutenant Vasily Marzoev, the son of a Russian general, using a guided aerial bomb. Al Jazeera could not independently verify the report.
  • A Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian minibus in the village of Pogar in the Bryansk region killed the driver and injured five passengers, Russia’s state TASS news agency reported, citing Governor Alexander Bogomaz.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defence said its forces seized the Ukrainian village of Yehorivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region. However, the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform reported that Ukrainian forces had cleared Russian troops out of the village. Neither claim could be independently verified by Al Jazeera.

  • Russia’s Defence Ministry also said its forces captured the villages of Novomykolaivka and Privolnoye in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region, according to TASS.

  • TASS also reported the ministry as saying that Russian forces shot down 350 Ukrainian drones, two guided missiles and seven rocket launchers in the past 24 hours.
  • A report by the United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine found that Russian drone attacks were used as “part of a coordinated policy to drive out civilians from [Ukrainian] territories”, amounting “to the crime against humanity of forcible transfer of population”.
  • The report described civilians who were chased over long distances by drones with mounted cameras, and sometimes attacked with fire bombs or explosives while seeking shelter.

Politics and diplomacy

  • United States President Donald Trump said that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, should end the war in Ukraine instead of testing nuclear-powered missiles, adding that Washington had a nuclear submarine positioned off Russia’s coast. The comments came a day after Putin said that Russia had successfully tested its nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile.

  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was nothing in the test of the missile that should strain relations with Washington, and that Russia was guided by its own national interests.
  • Norway’s military intelligence service said that Russia’s test of the Burevestnik missile was launched from the Barents Sea archipelago of Novaya Zemlya.
  • Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the US-based Axios news outlet that Kyiv and its allies have agreed to work on a ceasefire plan in the coming 10 days, following Trump’s recent proposal to stop the war at the current lines.
  • Putin signed a law on Monday terminating an already defunct plutonium disposal agreement with the US that aimed to prevent both sides from building more nuclear weapons.
  • North Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs Choe Son Hui met Putin at the Kremlin on Monday to discuss strengthening cooperation with Russia, North Korean state media KCNA reported on Tuesday.

  • “Many future projects to constantly strengthen and develop” the bilateral relationship were discussed during the meeting, KCNA said, with Choe also conveying North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s “brotherly regard” to Putin. The Russian leader, in turn, asked Choe to tell Kim that “everything was going to plan” during the meeting.

  • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will discuss US sanctions on Russian oil companies, among other issues, when he meets Trump in Washington next week, Hungary’s foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, said on Monday.

Regional security

  • Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene said on Monday that her country will begin to shoot down smuggler balloons crossing the border from Belarus, a close Russian ally, after the balloons repeatedly interrupted the Baltic nation’s air traffic.
  • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that helium balloons over Lithuania were a “provocation” and “a hybrid threat”, adding in a post on X that the balloons are another reason to accelerate the European Union’s Eastern Flank Watch and European drone defence initiatives.

Weapons

  • Ukraine’s military intelligence published a list detailing the origins of 68 foreign components used in Russian missiles and other weapons, which it says came from China, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the US.

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Rutgers fraternity shut down after student injured in alleged hazing incident

Oct. 27 (UPI) — A fraternity at Rutgers University in New Jersey is under investigation and has been permanently shut down after a student was critically injured in an alleged hazing incident.

The university issued a cease-and-desist on the Alpha Sigma Phi chapter, hours after the 19-year-old was found unresponsive last week in the basement of the fraternity’s off-campus house.

Rutgers officials said the fraternity admitted the student was shocked with electricity and then came into contact with water. Authorities discovered the injured student after responding to a disconnected 911 call.

“Based on our investigation, hazing did occur and as a result, the fraternity made the decision to close the chapter,” Gordy Heminger, a spokesperson for Alpha Sigma Phi Fraternity, Inc., said in a statement.

“At some point, water became involved,” Heminger added. “This was not students just listening to music in the dark, as was claimed by an anonymous parent. This was hazing. We are still trying to determine who and how many people were involved, but we believe it will be double digits when all the facts come out.”

After being shut down, the fraternity house in New Brunswick was also condemned following a history of building code violations. An inspection earlier this year found numerous electrical hazards on the property.

The student, who was injured, is no longer in critical condition and is recovering.

Heminger promised that “all members directly or indirectly involved will be permanently expelled” from the fraternity.

“We hope Rutgers will do the same,” he added. “New Jersey has very strong anti-hazing laws and I hope the prosecutor seeks the maximum penalties allowed for those involved.”

Alpha Sigma Phi chapter at Rutgers University where an investigation continues into an alleged hazing incident. Photo from Google Maps.

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We are lucky to get a second chance

Charlotte GallagherCulture reporter

Five: We didn’t know if we could still sing and dance

There weren’t many boybands bigger than Five in the late 1990s.

But at the height of their popularity they dramatically called it a day in 2001, as the stress and pressures of fame and an unrelenting schedule took a toll on all of them.

Now, decades later – and to the delight of Millennials – Scott, Ritchie, J, Sean and Abz are back.

“It was too much too fast. Way too fast,” Abz tells me, while Ritchie explains it was “like being strapped to a rocket”.

“I think I was just in survival mode for five years, because I can’t remember a thing,” Sean adds, who was just 15 when the band was formed.

They have invited me into the rehearsal studio ahead of their upcoming tour, 25 years after they were last on the road together.

And it’s clear they’re much more comfortable this time around, with J saying they feel “spectacularly fortunate” to have a second chance.

Getty Five pictured in 1998 Getty

The boys at the height of their 1990s fame

The group sold more than 20 million records in the late 1990s and early 2000s, with tracks such as Keep on Movin’ and Everybody Get Up.

But reuniting after more than 20 years doesn’t come without risk. Oasis may have sold out a stadium tour in seconds, but others haven’t been as fortunate.

Scott says all five of them didn’t sleep the night before their reunion was announced.

“I phoned my wife, Kerry, in the middle of the night and asked: ‘What if no one cares? What if we think it’s going to be this big thing and everyone goes, so what?'”

‘Could we still perform together?’

But fortunately, the group’s fans did care, and the band’s arena tour of the UK, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand is almost sold out.

“We knew we’d done well but I don’t think we realised how well our younger selves had done. And how much we’d affected some peoples lives and how much they’d loved us,” Ritchie says.

Another thing the band were unsure about was the prospect of singing and dancing together again.

Sean explains: “We sold a tour without even knowing [we could do it]. We believed it but we had to get into rehearsals to actually find out, but we can confirm it’s still there!”

Getty Five at the Brit Awards 2025, they are all wearing black outfits.Getty

Five at the Brit Awards 2025

The band are now all in their 40s but had barely left school when they formed. It was clearly an overwhelming time.

Ritchie tells me: “We got into it very young and we thought we’d won the lottery and all our dreams were coming true. In many ways, they did, but in some ways it turned into a nightmare psychologically, [there were] a lot of things we weren’t expecting.

“We’d wake up on a tour bus and think, not what country are we in, but what continent are we in?”

J agrees: “There are loads of blank spots in our memories, and we’ve spoken about it and come to the conclusion that it was all so fast, and we were in flight or fight mode for the whole thing. It was like you were being chased by something.”

So after all that time apart, I want to know who made the first move about the prospect of reuniting.

Scott says that not even being in the same room with his four former bandmates for over 20 years had been playing on his mind.

“I phoned Abz and I hadn’t spoken to him for 10 years, and one of the first things he said to me was ‘It’s so nice to hear your voice’. So we just got together – it wasn’t about a tour, it was about being friends again.

“No one outside this bubble knows what we went through,” he adds.

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Though one person who knows more than most about what Five experienced is Robbie Williams, who was a member of Take That before finding success as a solo artist.

Five performed Keep On Movin’ with him at one of his shows in London this summer.

Ritchie says he had “performer insecurity” and feared the crowd wouldn’t know who they were, “but it went off”.

Sean adds that Robbie “knew everything we’ve been through”, adding the six of them sat for two hours chatting.

On the emotional trauma Five went through, Scott says Robbie told them it was like “carrying a big bag of rocks and you need to empty it day by day.”

For J, the whole experience of being back in the band is “the antithesis of what it was before.”

“The people we’ve got around us, how we’re being managed. how we’re being looked after, which is the most important thing. We were last time but people were kind of learning on the job.”

They’ve reconciled and reunited now but would Five go back in time and do it all again?

Abz says he would “but differently”, while Ritchie laughs: “With this head, I’d love to do it, because I’d be checking the accounts a lot more!”

Five: Still Movin’ is on the BBC iPlayer from Tuesday 28 October. Five begin their tour on Wednesday 29 October in Cardiff.

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Hamas hands over remains of captive as Israeli drone strike kills two | Gaza News

Hamas has handed over the remains of another dead captive to Israel, hours after an Israeli drone attack in southern Gaza killed two Palestinians amid a fragile ceasefire.

The Israeli military said on Monday that the Red Cross had taken custody of the coffin and was in the process of transporting it to the army’s troops in Gaza.

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Under the terms of a United States-brokered ceasefire that took effect on October 10, Hamas has undertaken to return the bodies of all the 28 deceased captives. The remains of 16 had been handed over as of Monday.

The 20 surviving captives were freed on October 13 as part of the truce.

The release of the latest body comes as the families of some of the captives called on the Israeli government to pause the ceasefire if Hamas fails to locate and hand over the bodies.

“Hamas knows exactly where every one of the deceased hostages is held,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said.

“The families urge the government of Israel, the United States administration and the mediators not to advance to the next phase of the agreement until Hamas fulfils all of its obligations and returns every hostage to Israel,” the association added.

The statement echoed the Israeli government’s claim that Hamas knows where the remains are.

On Saturday, Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya said there were “challenges” in locating the captives’ bodies because “the occupation has altered the terrain of Gaza”.

He suggested that some of those who had buried the bodies had been killed during the war, while others had forgotten the burial locations.

The day after al-Hayya’s comments, Israel permitted an Egyptian technical team to enter Gaza to help with the task of finding the bodies. The search involves the use of excavator machines and trucks.

Despite the ceasefire, an Israeli drone attack close to the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis killed at least two people on Monday, according to Nasser Hospital.

In total, eight Palestinians have been killed and another 13 injured in Israeli attacks across the enclave over the last 48 hours, Gaza’s Ministry of Health said on Monday. At least 68,527 people have died and 170,395 have been injured since Israel’s war on Gaza began in October 2023, it added.

Speaking on board Air Force One on Monday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that Israel had not violated the truce through its strike against a member of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group on Saturday.

“We don’t view that as a violation of the ceasefire,” he said, accusing the target of planning an attack on Israeli troops.”They have the right if there’s an imminent threat to Israel, and all the mediators agree with that.”

In the more than two weeks since the truce began, about 473,000 people have returned to northern Gaza, where they face widespread destruction of property and critical shortages of basic necessities like food and water, according to the United Nations.

Younis al-Khatib, the head of the Palestine Red Crescent Society, has warned that Gaza’s population still faces the same desperate humanitarian emergency as it did before the truce.

“Rebuilding human beings is more difficult than rebuilding destroyed homes,” he said during meetings with Norway’s prime minister and foreign minister in Oslo, noting that residents would need mental health care for years to come.

The World Health Organization also warned that the number of Palestinians in Gaza who need mental health support had risen from about 485,000 to more than one million after two years of Israel’s war.

Almost all the children in the enclave need such help, according to the UN children’s agency, UNICEF, which has said that Gaza has been “the most dangerous place in the world to be a child” over the last two years.

Tess Ingram, the group’s spokesperson in Gaza, explained that this is because of the “sheer number of children who’ve been killed and injured, displaced, separated from their families [or] who have lost a loved one”.

“A classroom of children was killed every single day for two years in this conflict, and the scars of what the children have endured will last for many, many years to come,” Ingram told Al Jazeera, speaking from the al-Mawasi area in the south.

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Lithuania Will Shoot Down Balloons Crossing Border From Belarus After Dozens Detected Overnight

NATO member Lithuania today authorized the shooting down of balloons that cross the border from Russia’s ally Belarus, after as many as 66 balloons were spotted by Lithuanian radar overnight. The Lithuanian government has described the balloon incursion as a “hybrid attack” and has closed its border with Belarus — temporarily, for now. The balloon incident is the latest airspace incursion on NATO’s eastern flank, as tensions between the alliance and Russia grow against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.

Lithuania has also said it is considering calling for talks under NATO’s Article 4, which discusses a response when “the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of the parties is threatened.”

Lithuania spent much of last week battling balloons — literally.

– For 4 days over the last week, smuggling balloons from Belarus disrupted air traffic and shut down airports.
– Officials call it a “crisis” and “psychological operation” meant to test Lithuania’s resilience.
– In… pic.twitter.com/O8uoUFp2T5

— Linas Kojala (@LinasKojala) October 27, 2025

Some of the helium balloons involved were assessed by Lithuanian authorities to weigh between 110 and 130 pounds, making them a significant threat to aircraft operating in Lithuanian airspace. Initially, it was reported that at least some of them were being used to smuggle goods — primarily cigarettes — across the border. These would typically be recovered once landed, using location tags to find them.

While the cigarette cargoes may well be true, it doesn’t rule out the possibility that the balloons were sent as a deliberate provocation, with, at the very least, Moscow’s approval. It may also be the case that Belarus is simply turning a blind eye to the contraband balloons, knowing they will drift into the airspace of its NATO neighbor.

The Lukashenka regime continues its hybrid war against 🇪🇺 — last night, more “weather balloons” crossed into Lithuania.

We support 🇱🇹’s firm response, while calling to keep the borders open for honest Belarusians.

Only a free, democratic Belarus can end these threats to Europe. pic.twitter.com/kwCJGLqvYj

— Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya) October 27, 2025

It should be noted that balloons of different types are widely used in the war in Ukraine. Russia employs balloons extensively as decoys to stimulate, distract and gain intelligence on Ukrainian air defenses. This mission is a long-established one for balloons and Russia has looked to weaponized balloons throughout the Cold War. Ukraine, meanwhile, has developed balloons to help locate drone operators, as you can read about here.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė pledged to shoot down any further balloons disrupting the Lithuanian airspace.

This would likely involve Lithuania’s Air Defense Battalion, which is equipped with the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), the shorter-range RBS 70 and Avenger systems, as well as various man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS). The stocks of some of these systems have been depleted by transfers of equipment to Ukraine after the full-scale invasion.

A Lithuanian Air Defense Battalion NASAMS launcher deployed in defense of Vilnius Airport. Lithuanian Armed Forces

Lithuania does not operate fighter jets, but is protected by NATO’s Baltic Air Policing detachments, with Hungarian Air Force Gripens and Spanish Air Force Typhoons currently stationed at Šiauliai, in Lithuania. Ground-based air defense systems from other NATO members are similarly deployed to Lithuania on a rotational basis, too.

Spanish Air Force Typhoons take part in Operation Eastern Sentry, while deployed to Šiauliai in Lithuania, as the ‘Vilkas’ detachment. Spanish Air and Space Force

However, as we have discussed in detail in relation to balloons in U.S. airspace in 2023, even when these are very large targets, they are by no means easy to bring them down.

Lithuania has also now closed its roughly 400-mile eastern border with Belarus in what is currently described as a temporary move enacted by the country’s border force. The government is meanwhile discussing whether the border closure will be extended indefinitely, something that is expected to be approved during a government meeting planned for Wednesday. Belarus has described the temporary border closure as “a provocation.”

A map showing the border between Lithuania and Belarus, including the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius. Google Maps

“No hybrid attack will be tolerated,” said Prime Minister Ruginienė at a press conference today. “We will take the strictest possible measures to stop such actions.”

Autocrats are once again testing the resilience of EU and NATO against hybrid threats.

In recent days, dozens of helium balloons from Belarus have entered our airspace – drifting toward major airports and disrupting civil aviation.

This calls for a united, resolute response:…

— Inga Ruginienė (@IRuginiene) October 27, 2025

Deividas Matulionis, a senior advisor to the Lithuanian president, said the balloon incursions were part of a “hybrid psychological operation” seeking to disrupt the everyday life of Lithuanians. “We very much hope that immediate action will be taken, but there should also be very strong diplomatic action and certain legal measures, which should be approved … as soon as possible,” he said.

Without mentioning Russia directly, Ruginienė and Matulionis were pointing to the growing threat posed to NATO and the European Union by a variety of unorthodox types of warfare, ranging from sabotage of critical infrastructure to manipulation of the information space in an effort to undermine Western democracies. In such incidents, Russia has always denied any responsibility, but Western suspicions generally center around potential Kremlin motives, especially after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Europe stands in full solidarity with Lithuania in the face of the persistent incursions of helium smuggling balloons into its airspace.

This is destabilisation.
This is provocation.

We call it by its name: a hybrid threat.
We will not tolerate it.

This is yet another reason…

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) October 27, 2025

Ruginienė explained that, if the border is closed indefinitely, there will be only very limited exceptions for Lithuanian and EU citizens, as well as diplomatic mail. “All other movement will be halted,” she confirmed.

The incursions overnight were the latest in a string of similar disruptions over the course of last week. Vilnius Airport, Lithuania’s biggest hub, was closed on four separate occasions. In total, more than 170 flights were disrupted by cancellations, diversions, and delays over the course of the week, the airport operator said.

This evening air traffic at Kaunas and Vilnius Airports was temporarily suspended. According to initial reports, the decision to restrict the airspace was caused by meteorological balloons. The airspace restrictions are in effect until 10:00 p.m.

— Lithuanian Airports (@LTairports) October 24, 2025

Last Thursday, Lithuania summoned a Russian diplomat to protest what it says was the entry of two Russian military aircraft into its airspace.

The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense said a Russian Su-30 Flanker fighter and an Il-78 Midas tanker flying from Kaliningrad passed through Lithuanian airspace for around 2,300 feet before leaving after 18 seconds, probably during aerial refueling training.

The Russian SU-30 and IL-78 aircraft crossed about 700 metres into Lithuanian territory near Kybartai, staying in our airspace for 18 seconds.

This incident once again shows the reality of our region. Together with our Allies, we must keep strengthening our defence capabilities. https://t.co/njpFxMUoMM

— Lithuanian MOD 🇱🇹 (@Lithuanian_MoD) October 23, 2025

Russia’s defense ministry denied the incursion had taken place. “The flights were conducted in strict compliance with the rules for using airspace above Russian territory. The aircraft … did not violate the borders of other states,” it said.

As to what comes next, Lithuania has said it is not ruling out Article 4 talks over the balloons. The procedure has only been used nine times in the alliance’s history. Most recently, it was triggered by Poland and Estonia after Russian airspace violations in September.

“Our response will determine how far autocrats dare to go,” Ruginienė said.

There have also been suggestions that Lithuania might extend the border closure to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, to the west, or at least restrict transit across the frontier.

The incursions in Lithuanian airspace follow an incident last month, during which three Russian MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace, as you can read about here.

Following a violation of Estonian air space, Swedish JAS 39 fighters intercepted and monitored three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets over the Baltic Sea today. Sweden is always ready to ensure the safety, security and integrity of our airspace together with our allies.#WeAreNATO pic.twitter.com/gpTbmngiKc

— Försvarsmakten (@Forsvarsmakten) September 19, 2025

Ahead of that, Polish authorities counted 19 Russian drones that entered the country’s airspace, in what Polish authorities described as “an attempt to test our capabilities and responses.” Some of those drones were shot down by Polish and Dutch combat aircraft. You can catch up to our reporting on the incident in our story here.

Last night, Poland’s airspace was breached 19 times by drones manufactured in Russia. Our assessment is that they did not veer off course but were deliberately targeted.

Poland, EU and NATO will not be intimidated and we will continue to stand by the brave people of Ukraine.… pic.twitter.com/prAEqrIUKX

— Radosław Sikorski 🇵🇱🇪🇺 (@sikorskiradek) September 10, 2025

Overall, the last few months have seen unprecedented chaos for European civil aviation, with Russia being widely suspected as the main culprit. Other drone incursions have disrupted the airports in Copenhagen, Munich, and the Baltic region.

With the latest incidents in Lithuania, there’s a growing consensus in NATO and the EU that these airspace violations are not isolated incidents. Instead, in the words of Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, they are “calculated provocations designed to destabilize, distract, [and] test NATO’s resolve.”

Contact the author: [email protected]

Thomas is a defense writer and editor with over 20 years of experience covering military aerospace topics and conflicts. He’s written a number of books, edited many more, and has contributed to many of the world’s leading aviation publications. Before joining The War Zone in 2020, he was the editor of AirForces Monthly.




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Federal Reserve to make interest rate decision this week

Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on July 30. The Federal Reserve will meet Wednesday to decide whether to issue a second interest rate cut since September. File Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI | License Photo

Oct. 27 (UPI) — The Federal Reserve will meet Wednesday, as the U.S. government shutdown enters its fifth week, to decide whether to cut interest rates for a second time since September.

Last week, the Labor Department released its Consumer Price Index, showing inflation rose at a rate of 3% last month. While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, many economists expect a rate cut this week.

“Concerns about tariffs driving prices higher are still not showing up in most categories,” Scott Helfstein, Global X’s head of investment strategy, told CBS News on Friday. “Nothing in the inflation print should stop the Fed from cutting rates next week. Yes, prices are higher, but not enough to keep them from helping the economy.”

While some economic data has not been released amid the government shutdown, forcing the Federal Reserve to make its decision without some key information, a quarter-point cut to benchmark federal funds this week would lower the target to somewhere between 3.75% and 4%.

“This time around, there are warning signs all around the economy, from rising unemployment to seven straight months of contraction in manufacturing due to tariffs,” Ryan Young, senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, told Fox Business. “That is what is pushing Fed officials towards cutting rates. But that stimulus comes with a tradeoff: it risks higher inflation. They’re taking a chance, and it might not pay off.”

Last month, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell announced a 0.25% rate cut, the first of President Donald Trump‘s second term and the first since the United States imposed wide-ranging tariffs. The Federal Reserve works to control inflation, while maximizing job growth.

U.S. markets, which closed higher Monday, are also expecting another rate cut this week, along with a third in December.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are currently sitting at record highs. On Friday, the Dow closed for the first time above 47,000, buoyed by the expectation of another rate cut this week, as well as big tech earnings reports and a possible China trade deal.

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The Dark Fleet: How Cartels Took Hold of North America’s Energy Trade

When a Danish-flagged tanker named Torm Agnes quietly pulled into Mexico’s Port of Ensenada this spring, few took notice. The harbor, better known for cruise liners and pleasure yachts, seemed an unlikely setting for a large-scale energy delivery. But what followed was no ordinary unloading. Within hours, convoys of fuel-hauling trucks began siphoning off diesel from the tanker under the cover of night, an industrial cover that occurred so fast that witnesses said it operated “like clockwork.”

By morning, much of the shipment, worth roughly $12 million, had vanished into the Mexican black market. On paper, the cargo was listed as lubricants, exempt from Mexico’s high import taxes. In reality, it was a vast quantity of U.S.-sourced diesel smuggled by intermediaries working with one of Mexico’s most violent cartels; the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, or CJNG.

This was not a one-off operation. It was part of a sprawling, billion-dollar criminal enterprise linking Mexican cartels, U.S. traders, corrupt officials, and global shipping firms into what security analysts are now calling a “dark fleet.” And it underscores a deeper truth: the cartelization of Mexico’s energy market is no longer a localized issue, it’s a geopolitical problem touching the heart of North American trade, governance, and security.

A New Market Touched by Cartels:

For decades, Mexico’s cartels made their fortune in narcotics. Today, they are energy traders, exploiting systemic weaknesses in Mexico’s tax system and infrastructure to build empires rivaling legitimate fuel companies. According to Mexican officials, bootleg imports may now account for up to one-third of the country’s diesel and gasoline market, worth more than $20 billion a year.

The genius of the scheme lies in its simplicity. Mexico’s IEPS tax, a levy on imported fuels often exceeding 50% of a shipment’s value, creates a powerful incentive to cheat. Smugglers evade this tax by falsifying cargo documents, claiming their shipments contain lubricants or petrochemical additives, both of which are tax-exempt. The fake paperwork passes through customs with the help of bribes, while the actual diesel or gasoline floods Mexican markets at a discount.

Companies like Houston-based Ikon Midstream, which bought and shipped the Torm Agnes cargo, occupy the gray zone between legality and complicity. The firm purchased diesel in Canada, disguised it as lubricants in customs documents, and sent it to a Monterrey-based recipient called Intanza, a company authorities now suspect is a CJNG front.

It is the blending of formal and criminal economies that makes this phenomenon so dangerous. What once required violent pipeline theft now operates as a hybrid supply chain, complete with invoices, shipping manifests, and trade intermediaries. The same global infrastructure that powers legitimate energy commerce has been repurposed for organized crime.

The American connection:

The Ensenada case illustrates how deeply intertwined U.S. and Mexican energy systems have become. Nearly all the smuggled fuel originates in the United States or Canada. It passes through American ports, refineries, and shipping brokers, some unwitting, others complicit.

Texas, long a hub for legitimate fuel exports, has also become fertile ground for illicit operations. “The cartels have infiltrated many legitimate businesses along the border and further north,” warned Texas State Senator Juan Hinojosa, who has pushed for stricter licensing of fuel depots and transporters.

The U.S. Treasury Department and the Office of Foreign Assets Control  have since begun sanctioning dozens of Mexican nationals and companies tied to CJNG’s fuel operations. Yet the challenge lies in the complex nature of the trade; each shipment can involve multiple shell companies, international middlemen, and falsified documents. Even major firms like Torm, one of the world’s largest tanker operators, have been drawn into controversy. The company says it cut ties with Ikon Midstream after the Ensenada operation became public, citing contractual deception.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice has already prosecuted American citizens for aiding cartel-linked fuel schemes. In May, a Utah father and son were charged with laundering money and supplying material support to CJNG by helping smuggle Mexican crude oil. Such cases highlight that America’s own regulatory and commercial systems are being leveraged to sustain the very criminal organizations Washington seeks to dismantle.

Mexico’s Shaky Governance:

For Mexico, the rise of cartel fuel empires is not just an economic issue, it’s an existential one. The Mexican Navy, once regarded as among the country’s least corrupt institutions, is now under internal investigation for its role in facilitating smuggling at ports. Senior naval and customs officials have been arrested in connection with illegal tanker operations, while President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has made combating fuel theft a cornerstone of its early tenure.

But even high-profile seizures barely scratch the surface. Since Sheinbaum took office in late 2024, authorities have confiscated an estimated 500,000 barrels of illegal fuel, less than a fraction of the $20 billion trade. Prosecutors investigating the racket face mortal danger. In August, Tamaulipas’ federal prosecutor was assassinated after leading raids that uncovered more than 1.8 million liters of illicit fuel.

This combination of organized crime, corruption, and governance failure is a hallmark of what political scientists call “criminal capture”, the point at which state institutions become functionally co-opted by illicit economies. With cartels operating as false energy corporations, Mexico’s sovereignty over its own fuel sector is seemingly a facade.

The Global Shadow Market:

The implications stretch beyond Mexico. The term “dark fleet” was first used to describe tankers smuggling sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. Now, it applies equally to the vessels carrying contraband fuel across the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific coastlines.

These ships exploit the same legal and logistical loopholes that sustain global energy markets; open registries, layered ownership, and limited oversight in maritime trade. Once a vessel’s cargo is reclassified or offloaded at an unsanctioned port, tracing its origins becomes almost impossible.

For Western energy giants, this black-market competition is tangible. Shell’s decision to sell its retail operations in Mexico earlier this year was due in part to its inability to compete with cheaper cartel-supplied fuel. Bootleg diesel sells at a 5–10% discount below legitimate imports, enough to distort prices across an entire sector.

Meanwhile, the illusion of “cheap” fuel comes at extraordinary cost. Mexico’s treasury loses billions in tax revenue annually, honest importers are squeezed out, and legitimate workers are drawn into dangerous informal economies. The trade also erodes trust in North America’s supply chains, just as Washington and Mexico City struggle to deepen cross-border economic integration under the USMCA framework.

Cartel Infiltration into Trade Routes:

The evolution of cartels from narcotics traffickers to fuel traders reflects a broader transformation in organized crime. Cartels have always been adaptive enterprises, but their pivot into energy reveals strategy: fuel is legal, high-margin, and logistically complex, making it perfect for laundering money under the guise of legitimate trade.

In this new landscape, the line between criminal and commercial actor has blurred beyond recognition. A U.S. trader signing a fuel invoice in Houston may be unknowingly financing a cartel warehouse in Jalisco. A Danish shipping company fulfilling a contract may inadvertently be enabling tax evasion worth millions. And a Mexican port official turning a blind eye may be advancing the interests of a criminal enterprise larger than the state itself.

The Torm Agnes episode is not merely a tale of smuggling; it is an example showcasing globalization’s vulnerabilities. As supply chains grow more complex and opaque, the ability of states to control what passes through their borders diminishes.

What’s Next?

Mexico’s “dark fleet” is more than a law enforcement issue, it’s a test of North America’s supply chain security. If cartels can operate international fuel logistics networks using legitimate Western infrastructure, the implications reach far beyond Ensenada. It raises fundamental questions about regulation, accountability, and the complicity embedded in global commerce.

President Sheinbaum’s crackdown, combined with U.S. sanctions, suggests the beginnings of a coordinated response. But the scale of the challenge is daunting. As one former OFAC official put it, “The cartels are not just criminals anymore, they’re businessmen with global reach.”

Whether Washington and Mexico City can curb this hybrid economy will define not just the future of bilateral relations, but the credibility and stability of the global energy system itself.

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UN slams Israel after attack on peacekeepers in Lebanon | Israel-Palestine conflict News

UN spokesman says incident involved a drone dropping a grenade near a patrol, and a tank opening fire on peacekeepers.

The United Nations and France have condemned an Israeli attack that hit UN peacekeeping troops in southern Lebanon.

UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Monday that the previous day’s attack on UNIFIL troops, which he said involved an Israeli drone dropping a grenade in the vicinity of a patrol, as well as a tank opening fire on peacekeepers near the border town of Kfar Kila, was “very, very dangerous”.

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The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) works with the Lebanese army to enforce a ceasefire struck last year between Israel and the Lebanese armed groupd Hezbollah. Israel has violated the truce on a near-daily basis.

France’s Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs also condemned “the Israeli fire that targeted a UNIFIL detachment” and noted that the incidents followed similar attacks on October 1, 2 and 11.

Dujarric said: “It’s not the first time that we feel we’ve been targeted in different ways by the [Israeli army, including] pointing lasers or warning shots. He said his colleagues at UNIFIL were in touch with the Israeli military to “protest vehemently” against the attacks.

On Sunday, UNIFIL reported an Israeli drone flying over its patrol in an “aggressive manner”, saying its peacekeepers “applied necessary defensive countermeasures to neutralise the drone”. No injuries or damage were reported.

Israel still occupies five positions in southern Lebanon and has been launching near-daily attacks in defiance of the ceasefire. At least two brothers were killed in a strike on the village of al-Bayyad in the Tyre district on Monday.

The Lebanese official news agency ANI said that the two were killed in an attack on a sawmill in al-Bayyad.

Three people were killed on Sunday in raids on southern and eastern Lebanon.

The military says that it is targeting members of Hezbollah and its infrastructure, but Lebanese leaders have accused it of attempting to obstruct reconstruction by striking machinery like diggers and bulldozers.

The Israeli army said that its Sunday attacks targeted an arms dealer working for Hezbollah and another man who was “aiding the group’s attempts to rebuild its capacity for military action”.

Hezbollah, severely weakened by Israel’s attacks, has said it is ready to defend itself. “The possibility of war exists but is uncertain; it depends on their calculations,” said Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem in reference to Israel.

The United States government has been pressuring Lebanon to have the group surrender its arms to the country’s army.

US Middle East envoy Morgan Ortagus arrived late on Monday in Beirut, where she is scheduled to meet Lebanese leaders.

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White House asks high court to let Trump fire Library of Congress official

The Library of Congress pictured March 2010 in Washington, D.C. On Monday, the Trump administration asked the U.S. Supreme Court to officially allow Trump to fire a top LOC official following a lower court ruling against it. File Photo by Roger L. Wollenberg/UPI | License Photo

Oct. 27 (UPI) — The White House asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday to allow President Donald Trump to fire a top official in the Library of Congress after a lower court ruled against it.

Shira Perlmutter, director of the U.S. Copyright Office, was dismissed from her role by Trump just days after the president removed Librarian of Congress Carla Hayden in May. Hayden was replaced by U.S. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche on an interim basis.

In September, a federal appeals court ordered Perlmutter reinstated to her role under the legislative branch, not the executive branch, at the Library of Congress.

On Monday, the Trump administration told the high court in its appeal that the D.C. appeal circuit’s ruling contravened “settled precedent and misconceives the Librarian’s and Register’s legal status.”

“Treating the Librarian and Register as legislative officers would set much of federal copyright law on a collision course with the basic principle that Congress may not vest the power to execute the laws in itself or its officers,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote in an emergency filing.

Meanwhile, Robert Newlen is listed as the acting Librarian of Congress.

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