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Mahmood refuses to detail cost of revised settlement plans

The home secretary has declined to specify how much scrapping her plan to make foreign care workers already in the UK wait longer to qualify for permanent settlement will cost.

Shabana Mahmood had originally proposed doubling the wait from five years to 10 for most migrants, with some facing a 15-year wait, which the Home Office suggested could save £10bn.

Under revised plans, some foreign care workers will wait five years and others will be able to seek a five-year extension, in what the Tories have called a “U-turn”.

While not detailing the cost of the revised plans, Mahmood told the BBC the state would still save “billions” because workers in other sectors would have to wait longer.

In March, the Home Office said, external the net lifetime cost of care workers and their adult dependants expected to settle between 2026 and 2030 was estimated at £10bn under existing rules.

Mahmood was proposing to delay settlement for this cohort in response to concerns over record post-Brexit net migration figures under the previous Tory government – dubbed the “Boriswave” by critics.

Following a backlash, Mahmood announced on Monday that care workers who arrived in the UK before May 2025 and earned at least £25,000 a year would continue to qualify after five years, alongside some other groups.

Foreign care workers who do not qualify for the five-year settlement will be able to apply for a new five-year visa, and then seek settlement.

Indefinite leave to remain (ILR), also known as settlement, gives a person the right to live, work and study in the UK for as long as they like and apply for benefits if they are eligible. They can also use it to apply for British citizenship.

Asked about the cost of her revised plans, the home secretary told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme the detailed costs would be published when her department puts the changes before Parliament.

She said the changes overall represented “savings in the billions” to the Department of Work and Pensions in people not claiming benefits.

“The reason for that is the cohort that was most likely to fall upon the state is that cohort of care workers not doing care work at the moment – if they’d settled at five years, many more of those would have gone on to claim benefits.

“That will now not happen because they will not be settling at five years – those individuals get a second chance to make that contribution that they originally came to make,” she told Today.

The Conservatives said her “U-turn” will cost the state billions of pounds.

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This {{smallBoats.change}} same period the previous year.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”These crossings have become the most common way for people to be detected entering the UK illegally since 2020.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”Nearly all those who arrive by small boat claim asylum. Under international law, this means they are allowed to stay in the country while their asylum application is considered.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”Small boat arrivals made up {{smallBoatsAsylum.percent}} of asylum applications between {{smallBoatsAsylum.period}}.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”28682833?2496655\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”28682833\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A bar chart of the total number of people arriving in the UK by small boat each year since 2018. Each bar is split to show arrivals up to 5 Oct and arrivals after that date. Total arrivals by year were as follows: 2018: 299, 2019: 1,843, 2020: 8,462, 2021: 28,526, 2022: 45,755, 2023: 29,437, 2024: 36,816, 2025: 41,472. So far in 2026, 20,478 people have arrived by small boat, as of 5 Oct. This is the fifth highest total for the years shown, by the same point in the year.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”352\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”400\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-5\\\”:\\\”Boats that arrived in the UK from {{boatSize.period}} carried an average of {{boatSize.value}} people. This {{boatSize.change}} 2021.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-6\\\”:\\\”Experts say [overcrowding in boats makes crossings riskier](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9j8r8z90wo). At least 84 people died while attempting to cross the Channel in 2024, according to the United Nations (UN).\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-7\\\”:\\\”When looking at the scale of small boats crossings, the number of these arrivals is about {{smallBoatsImmigration.percent}} of the size of total immigration into the UK from {{smallBoatsImmigration.period}}.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-8\\\”:\\\”The government has pledged to [“smash the gangs”](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dqqj0v1ndo) behind these crossings in order to reduce the numbers.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”Who is arriving in the UK on small boats?\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”People from {{nationalities.top}} accounted for {{nationalities.percent}} of all arrivals from {{nationalities.period}}.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25573101?2496655\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25573101\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top five countries from which the UK receives most arrivals by small boat. The countries and corresponding arrivals detected are as follows: Eritrea with 5,875 arrivals detected, Sudan with 4,191 arrivals detected, Afghanistan with 4,042 arrivals detected, Somalia with 3,901 arrivals detected, and Iran with 3,657 arrivals detected. The figures are for July 2025 to June 2026.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”FALSE\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”352\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”288\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”In the latest figures covering {{modernSlavery.period}}, at least {{modernSlavery.value}} people who arrived by small boat were found to be potential victims of human trafficking or other forms of modern slavery, according to the Home Office.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”How else do people stay in the UK without permission?\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Another {{otherMethods.value}} people were detected entering the UK without permission via other methods including hiding in vehicles, travelling on ferries or through airports from {{otherMethods.period}}. This {{otherMethods.change}} same period the previous year.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”There are also individuals who arrive legally, for example via a work or study visa, and then overstay their limit.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-3__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”The total number of people who live in the UK illegally after arriving legally is not known.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__include-title\\\”:\\\”Asylum applications and hotels\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__cta\\\”:\\\”Tap the questions below\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__header\\\”:\\\”How many people are in asylum accommodation?\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”An asylum seeker is someone who wants to be in the UK because they say they cannot live safely in their own country due to persecution or violence.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”The government must house an asylum seeker if they cannot financially support themselves while their claim is being considered. There were {{accommodation.value}} people in asylum accommodation as of {{accommodation.period}}.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”About {{accommodationHotels.percent}} of those people, {{accommodationHotels.value}}, were in hotels. These are used when there is not enough shared housing available, such as houses of multiple occupation (HMOs) or [former military sites](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjr0lx7n0y3o).\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”The government [has pledged to stop the use of hotels](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dqqj0v1ndo) by 2029.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-5\\\”:\\\”More people are in hotels across the south of England than elsewhere in the UK, while HMOs are more common in the north of England and Scotland.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”Numbers of asylum seekers in hotels by council area\\\”,\\\”lookup-noscript-message\\\”:\\\”A modern browser with JavaScript and a stable internet connection is required to view this interactive\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__component__lookup-1__subtitle\\\”:\\\”Type in a postcode or the name of a local council below to see how many asylum seekers are housed in the area\\\”,\\\”news_vj_search_lookup_invalid_postcode\\\”:\\\”Please enter a full UK postcode\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_title\\\”:\\\”Asylum accommodation in {{council}}\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_as-of\\\”:\\\”as of {{date}}\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_per\\\”:\\\”per 100,000 residents\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_this-is\\\”:\\\”This is\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_much-lower\\\”:\\\”less than half\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_lower\\\”:\\\”lower than\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_average\\\”:\\\”about the same as\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_higher\\\”:\\\”higher than\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_much-higher\\\”:\\\”more than double\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-header\\\”:\\\”Asylum seekers in hotels\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-zero-figure\\\”:\\\”There were no asylum seekers in hotels in {{council}}\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_hotels-comparand\\\”:\\\”the average for a UK council with asylum seekers in hotels, if you calculated it as a share of its population\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-uk-figures\\\”:\\\”{{number}} of {{total}} councils across the UK have asylum seekers in hotels\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25656794?2496655\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25656794\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map_alt\\\”:\\\”A map of which local authorities in the UK use hotels to house asylum seekers. 101 of 361 local authorities are using hotels as of June 2026.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map__mega_height\\\”:\\\”500\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”400\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-source\\\”:\\\”Home Office\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-header\\\”:\\\”Asylum seekers in other forms of accommodation\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-zero-figure\\\”:\\\”There were no asylum seekers in other forms of accommodation in {{council}}\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_other-comparand\\\”:\\\”the average for a UK council with asylum seekers in non-hotel accommodation, if you calculated it as a share of its population\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-uk-figures\\\”:\\\”{{number}} of {{total}} councils across the UK have asylum seekers in non-hotel accommodation\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-map_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25656669?2496655\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-map_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25656669\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-map_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-map-alt\\\”:\\\”A map of which local authorities in the UK use HMOs or other accommodation types to house asylum seekers. 321 of 361 local authorities are using hotels as of June 2026.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-source\\\”:\\\”Home Office\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_surrey-drilldown\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”How many people apply for asylum in the UK?\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”A total of {{claims.value}} people applied for asylum in the UK from {{claims.period}}. This {{claims.change}} same period in the previous year.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25573132?2496655\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25573132\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A bar chart of the total number of people applying for asylum in the UK, including main applicants and dependents, from July to June in the years 2002 to 2026. In the 12 months to June 2002, there were 75,668 claims. By 2005, this figure had more than halved. Applications hovered under or around 40,000 until 2022, when they reached 88,213. Levels swelled to around 100,000 in 2023, 2024 and 2025. From July 2025 to June 2026 there were 85,891 asylum applications.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”400\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”320\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”Most people who arrive in the UK by small boat claim asylum, but they were only {{smallBoats.percent}} of all asylum seekers from {{smallBoats.period}}.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”The rest include people who arrived by other illegal means or who came to the UK legally and applied for asylum while holding, or just after holding, a valid visa.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__header\\\”:\\\”How big is the asylum backlog?\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”It can take years for the government to decide whether someone should be granted asylum.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”In {{initialBacklogPeople.period}}, {{initialBacklogPeople.value}} people – across {{initialBacklogApplications.value}} asylum applications – were waiting for an initial decision. The number of people awaiting an initial decision {{initialBacklogPeople.change}} previous year.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”As of {{appealsBacklog.period}}, a further {{appealsBacklog.value}} refused asylum applications were part of a second backlog, waiting the outcome of an appeal in the courts. This {{appealsBacklog.change}} previous year.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”Together, these initial decision and appeal cases form the government’s total asylum applications backlog, [which it has pledged to clear](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dqqj0v1ndo).\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25616291?2496655\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25616291\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A stacked bar chart of applications awaiting a first decision and appeals caseload at first-tier tribunal, by quarter from, June 2015 to June 2026 The backlog increased from around 25,000 in 2015 to around 180,000 in 2023. This was largely due to more applications awaiting an initial decision. Since 2023, the number of applicants awaiting an initial decision has declined, but the appeals caseload has widened. In June 2026 there were 32,401 initial decisions and 90,341 appeals.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”450\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”384\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-5\\\”:\\\”Refugee status was granted in about {{initialBacklogDecisions.percent}} of asylum decisions made by the Home Office from {{initialBacklogDecisions.period}}.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-6\\\”:\\\”About {{appealsBacklogDecisions.percent}} of asylum appeal cases concluded between {{appealsBacklogDecisions.period}} resulted in a previous refusal decision being overturned.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__include-title\\\”:\\\”Returns and deportations from the UK\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__cta\\\”:\\\”Tap the questions below\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__header\\\”:\\\”How many people are returned or deported from the UK?\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”The government requires people who are in the UK, but no longer have permission to live or work in the country, to leave.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”This is called a return and can happen voluntarily or involuntarily.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”People can lose the right to be in the UK for different reasons, such as a visa expiring, an asylum claim being refused, or by receiving a criminal conviction that results in deportation.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”There were {{returns.value}} returns from {{returns.period}}. This {{returns.change}} same period the previous year.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-5\\\”:\\\”That number of returns is equivalent to about {{emigration.percent}} of total emigration from the UK from {{emigration.period}}.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”Who is returned from the UK?\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Of all returns from {{smallBoatReturns.period}}:\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”- {{offenderReturns.value}} had been convicted of a criminal offence\\\\n- {{asylumReturns.value}} had lodged an asylum claim at some point\\\\n- {{smallBoatReturns.value}} had arrived in the UK by small boat\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”People from {{nationalityReturns.top}} made up {{nationalityReturns.percent}} of all returns from {{nationalityReturns.period}}.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25609746?2496655\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25609746\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top five countries by number of returns from the UK, from July 2025 to June 2026. The countries and their figures are as follows: India: 10,859, Brazil: 5,559, Albania: 3,901, Romania: 2,065, and Nigeria: 1,528\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”352\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”288\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”What is the ‘one in, one out’ deal with France?\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Up until September the UK was [trialing a scheme with France](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c64gvnv4eqylo) to return people who arrived in the country on a small boat.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”For every person the UK sent back to France, the UK accepted a number of asylum seekers.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-3__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”This was called the \\\\\\\”one in, one out\\\\\\\” deal. As of {{oneInOneOut.period}}, {{oneInOneOut.value}} people were returned through this arrangement.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__header\\\”:\\\”How do people leave the UK under immigration control?\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Returns can happen in different ways. \\\\\\\”Enforced returns\\\\\\\”, which includes deportations, means the government arranges transport to return people to a different country. In some cases, people are escorted by officers.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”All other returns are \\\\\\\”voluntary\\\\\\\”. This means a person has agreed to leave and may receive government help with travel and other costs to help facilitate the return.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”Some people classed as leaving the country voluntarily do so completely independently and without [any government knowledge or involvement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyw8jw11jwo).\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”Independent returns made up {{independentReturns.percent}} of the total from {{independentReturns.period}}.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25575553?2496655\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25575553\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A stacked area chart of the number of immigration returns from the UK each quarter. The area is segmented by the type of return: government involved or independent. Independent includes those who left the country without telling authorities and were discovered later. Excludes those denied entry at a port. The chart covers each quarter from March 2015 to June 2026. In 2015, returns per quarter hovered around 11,000. Returns decreased throughout the latter half of the decade and in the pandemic; total returns were around 2000 in 2020. Independent and government-involved returns, however, have since increased. In the quarter ending June 2026 there were 6,769 government involved returns and 2,808 independent returns.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”416\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”368\\\”,\\\”visas__include-title\\\”:\\\”Visas for legal migration\\\”,\\\”visas__cta\\\”:\\\”Tap the questions below\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__header\\\”:\\\”How do people come to the UK legally?\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Most people who come to the UK do so legally, after being granted a visa before they travel.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”A visa gives someone permission to enter or stay in the UK for a specific purpose, such as work, study or joining family members.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”There were {{entryVisas.value}} people who came to the UK via visas from {{entryVisas.period}}, not including visitors or people transiting through the UK. This {{entryVisas.change}} same period the previous year.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”That does not mean all those people travelled to the UK, only that they were approved to do so.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”What are the most common reasons for entry each year?\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”The most common type of visa people came to the UK on was {{topVisaType.top}}, which made up {{topVisaType.percent}} of all visa entries from {{entryVisas.period}}.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25575781?2496655\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25575781\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the number of visa entries by type of visa from July 2025 to June 2026. The number of visas by type is as follows: Study: 385,974, Work: 234,841, Family: 57,590, and Other: 49,082. For contrast, there were 38,086 entries without permission in the same period.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”450\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”400\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”Who gets the most common UK visas?\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”People from {{topVisaNationality.top}} were the most common group to come to the UK on {{topVisaType.top}} visas, making up {{topVisaNationality.percent}} of the total.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”Together, people from China and India accounted for nearly half of all study visas. This has been the case for many years.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25610589?2496655\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25610589\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top five countries who receive the most study visas to the UK from July 2025 to June 2026. The countries who receive the most study visas are as follows: China: 87,123, India: 83,962, Nigeria: 33,082, Pakistan: 21,330, and Nepal: 17,151. Figures include both main applicants and dependants.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”352\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”288\\\”,\\\”country-compare__include-title\\\”:\\\”Migration to Europe\\\”,\\\”country-compare__cta\\\”:\\\”Tap the questions below\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__header\\\”:\\\”How many people cross to Europe illegally in boats?\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”The EU and UK monitor the number of people crossing borders in the Mediterranean and English Channel by sea without permission.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”There were {{seaArrivalsEU.value}} sea arrivals to the UK, Greece, Italy, Spain and Cyprus from {{seaArrivalsUK.period}}.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”Crossings to the UK accounted for about {{seaArrivalsUK.percent}} of the combined total.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”Sea arrivals into mainland Europe peaked in 2015, when the UN said [more than a million people](https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/over-one-million-sea-arrivals-reach-europe-2015) crossed the Mediterranean.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25617710?2496655\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25617710\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A line chart showing yearly arrivals by sea without permission to European countries from April 2018 to July 2026. Italy has generally had the highest numbers, peaking in March 2024 at around 140,000. Greece, Spain, and the UK have fluctuated around 50,000 a year. Cyprus has remained lower than 8,000 throughout.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”448\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”416\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”How many people apply for asylum in Europe?\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”The top three countries with the most people claiming asylum from {{asylumClaims.period}} were {{asylumClaims1.value}}, {{asylumClaims2.value}} and {{asylumClaims3.value}}.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”The UK ranked at number {{asylumClaims.rank}} for asylum claims over the same period when compared with 26 other European countries with populations over one million.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”When adjusted for population size, the UK ranks at number {{asylumClaimsRate.rank}} for asylum applications per 100,000 people.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25996564?2496655\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25996564\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of European countries with the highest asylum applicants per 100,000 residents from January 2025 to December 2025. Applications includes dependents. Only EU+ countries with a population of over a million were and that include asylum and refugee figures in migration data were included.The top five countries and their rate of asylum application per 100,000 residents are as follows: Greece, ranked first: 532, Spain, ranked second: 290, Switzerland, ranked third: 261, Ireland, ranked fourth: 243, and Belgium, ranked fifth: 233. The UK, also shown, ranks ninth, with 145 asylum applicants per 100,000\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”496\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”448\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”How does net migration compare across Europe?\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Net migration measures the overall change in a country’s population due to migration over a given period. It is everyone coming into the country (immigration) minus everyone who leaves (emigration).\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”The latest available data to compare the UK with other European nations is {{netMigrationEU.period}}.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”At that point, the countries with the biggest increase in their population were {{netMigrationEU1.value}}, {{netMigrationEU2.value}} and {{netMigrationEU3.value}}, after taking into account the people who left the country, and those who arrived.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”When adjusting for population size, the UK was in position {{netMigrationEU.rank}} for increase in population due to migration, alongside 13 other European countries with comparable data per 100,000 residents.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25702682?2496655\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25702682\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top 5 European countries by net migration per 100,000 residents. The countries and figures are as follows: Ireland: 1,308, Spain: 1,288, Switzerland: 926, Netherlands: 658, Norway: 613, and UK: 498. Data from January 2025 to December 2025\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”496\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”448\\\”},\\\”outputs\\\”:[{\\\”wrapper\\\”:\\\”embed\\\”},{\\\”wrapper\\\”:\\\”core\\\”},{\\\”wrapper\\\”:\\\”envelope\\\”},{\\\”wrapper\\\”:\\\”amp\\\”},{\\\”wrapper\\\”:\\\”news-app\\\”},{\\\”wrapper\\\”:\\\”syndication\\\”,\\\”photoCaption\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”photoURL\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”hyperlinkCallToAction\\\”:\\\”Click here to see the BBC interactive\\\”},{\\\”wrapper\\\”:\\\”syndication-enhanced-automated\\\”,\\\”photoCaption\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”photoURL\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”hyperlinkCallToAction\\\”:\\\”Click here to see the BBC interactive\\\”},{\\\”wrapper\\\”:\\\”applenews\\\”,\\\”photoCaption\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”photoURL\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”hyperlinkCallToAction\\\”:\\\”Click or tap here to see 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rel=\\\”stylesheet\\\” href=\\\”https://news.files.bbci.co.uk/include/newsspec/41039-migration-dashboard-2025/assets/embed/css/inline.css??v=1.0.202611020841.undefined\\\”>\\n\\u003cdiv id=\\\”responsive-embed-newsspec-41039-migration-dashboard-2025-visas\\\” class=\\\”bbc-news-vj-wrapper–embed bbc-news-vj-direction–ltr bbc-news-vj-language–english\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv id=\\\”responsive-embed-newsspec-41039-migration-dashboard-2025-visas-core-content\\\”>\\n \\u003cbutton class=\\\”amp-click-to-expand hidden\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”amp-click-to-expand-inset\\\”>\\n \\u003csvg xmlns=\\\”http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\\\” width=\\\”32\\\” height=\\\”32\\\” viewBox=\\\”0 0 32 32\\\” aria-hidden=\\\”true\\\”>\\n \\u003cpath d=\\\”M12.5 0l-1 20-6-4-2 2 10 14h15V14l-3-1.4V17h-1v-4.8l-3-1.4V17h-1v-6.6l-3-1.4v8h-1V0h-4z\\\” />\\n \\u003c/svg>\\n \\u003cspan class=\\\”amp-click-to-expand-text\\\”>Click to expand\\u003c/span>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/button> \\u003cdiv class=\\\”embed-wrapper embed-wrapper–module\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”embed-topper\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”embed-content\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-embed\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__content\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__fallback\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-picture\\n sm-picture–ratio-\\n sm-picture–fit-\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-picture__content\\\”>\\n \\u003cpicture class=\\\”sm-picture__picture\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25575781/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25575781/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25575781/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\”>\\n \\u003csource srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25575781/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003cimg loading=\\\”eager\\\” src=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25575781/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” alt=\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the number of visa entries by type of visa from July 2025 to June 2026. The number of visas by type is as follows: Study: 385,974, Work: 234,841, Family: 57,590, and Other: 49,082. For contrast, there were 38,086 entries without permission in the same period.\\\” width=\\\”100%\\\” height=\\\”\\\” />\\n \\u003c/picture>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__flourish-container hidden hoisted\\\” style=\\\”height: 25rem;\\\” >\\n \\u003cdiv id=\\\”embed\\\” data-height=\\\”100%\\\” class=\\\”flourish-embed flourish-embed-iframe\\\” data-src=\\\”visualisation/25575781?2496655\\\” style=\\\”height: 100%; width: 100%\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”crosshead-cta\\\”>Tap the questions below\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdetails class=\\\”sm-accordion\\\”>\\n \\u003csummary class=\\\”sm-summary\\\”>\\n \\u003cspan>How do people come to the UK legally?\\u003c/span>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”toggle-icon\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/summary>\\n \\u003cp>Most people who come to the UK do so legally, after being granted a visa before they travel.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>A visa gives someone permission to enter or stay in the UK for a specific purpose, such as work, study or joining family members.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>There were 727,487 people who came to the UK via visas from July 2025 to June 2026, not including visitors or people transiting through the UK. This was down by 15% on the same period the previous year.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>That does not mean all those people travelled to the UK, only that they were approved to do so.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003c/details> \\u003cdetails class=\\\”sm-accordion\\\”>\\n \\u003csummary class=\\\”sm-summary\\\”>\\n \\u003cspan>What are the most common reasons for entry each year?\\u003c/span>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”toggle-icon\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/summary>\\n \\u003cp>The most common type of visa people came to the UK on was study, which made up 53% of all visa entries from July 2025 to June 2026.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003c/details> \\u003cdetails class=\\\”sm-accordion\\\”>\\n \\u003csummary class=\\\”sm-summary\\\”>\\n \\u003cspan>Who gets the most common UK visas?\\u003c/span>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”toggle-icon\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/summary>\\n \\u003cp>People from China were the most common group to come to the UK on study visas, making up 23% of the total.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>Together, people from China and India accounted for nearly half of all study visas. This has been the case for many years.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-embed\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__content\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__fallback\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-picture\\n sm-picture–ratio-\\n sm-picture–fit-\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-picture__content\\\”>\\n \\u003cpicture class=\\\”sm-picture__picture\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25610589/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25610589/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25610589/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\”>\\n \\u003csource srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25610589/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003cimg loading=\\\”eager\\\” src=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25610589/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” alt=\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top five countries who receive the most study visas to the UK from July 2025 to June 2026. The countries who receive the most study visas are as follows: China: 87,123, India: 83,962, Nigeria: 33,082, Pakistan: 21,330, and Nepal: 17,151. Figures include both main applicants and dependants.\\\” width=\\\”100%\\\” height=\\\”\\\” />\\n \\u003c/picture>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__flourish-container hidden \\\” style=\\\”height: 22rem;\\\” >\\n \\u003cdiv id=\\\”embed\\\” data-height=\\\”100%\\\” class=\\\”flourish-embed flourish-embed-iframe\\\” data-src=\\\”visualisation/25610589?2496655\\\” style=\\\”height: 100%; width: 100%\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/details> \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”embed-footer\\\”>\\n \\u003ca href=\\\”https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70989jrdweo\\\” target=\\\”_blank\\\”>See more key stats on hotels, small boats and asylum\\u003c/a>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cnoscript>\\u003clink href=\\\”https://news.files.bbci.co.uk/include/newsspec/41039-migration-dashboard-2025/assets/embed/css/visas.css??v=1.0.202611020841.undefined\\\” 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A Nuclear Strike On Iran? It Sounds Absurd Because It Is. Let’s Talk About It

On Sunday evening, commentator Tucker Carlson made a chilling claim: U.S. President Donald Trump may soon use nuclear weapons against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain facility. Carlson’s comments were posted on X just two days ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, which Trump has frequently used as a timeframe for when he would conduct a new wave of airstrikes on Iran if he so decides. However, earlier on Monday, Trump downplayed that deadline, answering “no” when asked by reporters whether he was considering attacking after the election is over.

Regardless, Carlson’s claim runs counter to the president’s previous stance on the nuclear weapons issue. Trump has publicly eschewed their use, and while he has discussed attacking Pickaxe Mountain, he’s made it clear it would be by a conventional weapon if he made the call.

Monday afternoon, the White House dismissed Carlson’s asssertion.

“President Trump has a wide range of options available regarding Iran, and he will do what is right to keep the American people safe,” a White House official told us. “Tucker Carlson lost his way long ago due to a debilitating case of Trump Derangement Syndrome, and he has no insight into military planning or the Commander-in-Chief’s thinking.”

We don’t know the source of Carlson’s information or if it is in any way accurate. Carlson has experienced a major rift with Trump and has said plenty of shocking things in recent years, especially in regard to Trump’s second term and the war with Iran. Still, he is a very connected figure in right-wing media. Regardless, as TWZ editor-in-chief Tyler Rogoway noted on X, even conjecture that has gone viral about the potential use of a nuclear weapon for the first time since the U.S. bombed Nagasaki on Aug. 9, 1945, merits discussion. It would have such profound and irrevocable repercussions that it should not be ignored. We addressed the same concerns in regard to Russia and Ukraine in 2022.

376900 09: (FILE PHOTO) A dense column of smoke rises more than 60,000 feet into the air over the Japanese industrial port of Nagasaki, the result of an atomic bomb, the second ever used in warfare, August 8, 1945, from a U.S. Air Force B-29 Superfortress. (Courtesy of the National Archives/Newsmakers)
A dense column of smoke rises more than 60,000 feet into the air over the Japanese industrial port of Nagasaki, the result of an atomic bomb, the second ever used in warfare, Aug. 9, 1945. (Courtesy of the National Archives/Newsmakers) National Archives

“If a nuclear weapon were used on [Pickaxe Mountain] in Iran by the US or Israel or an empty field in Ukraine by Russia etc, it doesn’t matter, it would open up Pandora’s box and would make the U.S. and the world dramatically less safe,” Rogoway stated. “This isn’t even a question of how big of a disaster the use, in any manner, of a nuclear weapon would be. It would represent the largest foreign policy error ever by the United States if we were involved. We can only hope this claim isn’t accurate in any way.”

“…And I have no idea if this claim has merit, but this is important nonetheless,” he added in his X thread. “It is massively viral on my X feed. It has to be addressed.”

Pickaxe Mountain, a very hardened Iranian facility also known as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, is located in central Iran. As we have noted previously, it is deeply buried and would be a very difficult target to effectively destroy. In the past, Iran has openly discussed plans to produce centrifuges to support its nuclear enrichment efforts at the newer facility located there. It is also estimated to be large enough to house an actual enrichment plant, as well as other nuclear infrastructure, but exactly what is inside remains unconfirmed. Our previous reporting provides deeper insights into Pickaxe Mountain and Iran’s possible intentions for it.

Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain facility. (Satellite image ©2026 Vantor)

What Carlson said

“Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran,” Carlson stated on X. “The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place.”

“The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one,” the commentator added. “‘Bibi calls Trump about it every day,’ says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.”

What Trump has said about using nuclear weapons

“We don’t need it. Why do I need it?” Trump responded in April when asked if he would use nuclear weapons against Iran. “Why would a stupid question like that be asked? Why would I use a nuclear weapon where we’ve totally in a very conventional way decimated them without it.” 

“A nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody,” he added.

WATCH: Trump says he won’t use nuclear weapons in Iran thumbnail

WATCH: Trump says he won’t use nuclear weapons in Iran

The American leader reiterated that stance in August.

“They’re totally defeated militarily, so I defeat them, and now I should use a nuclear weapon on top of them? What a stupid question,” Trump responded on Aug. 31 when again asked by a reporter if he would use nuclear weapons against Iran.

Still, Trump sparked concerns about whether he would use nuclear weapons when he threatened to obliterate Iran in April in a social media post.

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” Trump stated on his Truth Social site. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

Several experts we spoke with downplayed the chances that Trump would order a nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain, but they did not completely rule it out.

“Is it likely? No,” Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association (ACA) and publisher and contributor for the organization’s monthly journal, Arms Control Today, said when we asked if he thought Trump would order a nuclear strike. “Is it possible that an unstable desperate president who has sole authority to authorize nuclear weapons use, would do so, yes. Given the situation, it is crucial that responsible U.S. voices and international leaders speak out against a massive U.S. strike on Iran of any kind.”

“That is highly unlikely,” Hans Kristensen — director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists, explained to us. He also writes the bi-monthly Nuclear Notebook and the world nuclear forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook. “There is nothing at all in Iran that justifies breaking the 81-year absence of nuclear weapons use. It would be a violation of the international Laws of War, have devastating consequences for U.S. foreign policy and the efforts to prevent proliferation and the use of nuclear weapons. It would be the kind of act where one would hope the people in the nuclear chain of command would refuse to carry out the president’s order.”

“I honestly don’t know that anyone knows that Trump will or won’t do, including Trump,” Stephen I. Schwartz, nonresident senior fellow at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, told us. “… for many years, often without prompting, he has spoken with a mix of wariness and awe about the tremendous power of nuclear weapons. But he has also publicly and repeatedly threatened to utterly annihilate North Korea, Afghanistan, and Iran. So, really, who knows?”

What weapon could the U.S. use if Trump ordered a nuclear strike?

As we have reported in the past, the B61-11 is the only air-delivered nuclear weapon in the U.S. stockpile today that is specifically designed to address this target set. 

“The B61-11 is based on the earlier B61-7, but is substantially different in form and function. It has a heavily reinforced outer shell, possibly with a depleted uranium penetrating nose section, and a rocket booster at the rear to help it penetrate down into underground facilities. Sources differ on the maximum yield of the B61-11, but it is said to either be between 340 and 360 kilotons (identical to that of the B61-7) or to be closer to 400 kilotons. There are also reportedly fewer than 100 of these bombs in the stockpile.”

The first B61-11 versions entered service in the 1960s. We have written extensively about the entire family of these weapons.

An example of the B61-11, or more likely an inert version thereof. This is the only specialized air-delivered deep-penetrating weapon known to be in the U.S. nuclear stockpile today. (Public Domain)

Given the yield of the B61-11, “one could probably do the job” of rendering Pickaxe Mountain unusable, Kristensen told us. “The collateral damage from 400 kilotons would be considerable; even if some very deep structures potentially survived, the damage to the overall infrastructure — plus the residual radiation in the soil — would probably make the site unusable. Other potential options include more conventional penetrator attacks to take out access points and accessible infrastructure, or potentially cyber attacks to sabotage or disable equipment and functions.”

“I think there are many non-nuclear options the United States and/or Israel could utilize to prevent Iran from restarting its nuclear weapons program (if, indeed, Iran has made a decision to do that),” argued Schwartz. “That would include using guided conventional bombs to target any entrances to the facility, impeding efforts of personnel to gain access and also complicating/preventing the movement of any materials out of the mountain.”

“Using an ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] would not be a good option,” he added. “For one thing, any ICBM would have to fly over Russia to reach Iran, which would be risky in more ways than one, even if Putin somehow agreed to allow that to happen. For another, ICBM warheads are not designed to penetrate the earth, at least not to any significant depth, so the force of the explosion would largely be ‘wasted’ on the surface, with everything that implies about lethal radioactive fallout. (Using an SLBM [submarine-launched ballistic missile] from a Trident submarine stationed closer to Iran would avoid the overflight risks but would also still be perceived as a threat by Russia and perhaps China after launch, even if we notify them in advance. But W76 and W76-1 warheads are not earth-penetrators, and I doubt we would want to use a 455-kiloton W88, our largest ballistic missile warhead, also not a deep earth-penetrator.)”

The W88 Alt 370 arming, fuzing, and firing assembly. (NNSA)

Israel has a nuclear weapons program that it does not publicly acknowledge and can deliver warheads via its Jericho ballistic missiles, some tactical jets and maybe even submarines.

It’s possible a special operations forces teams could attempt to raid the facility, access its interior and place a nuclear device inside it, although such a mission would be immensely challenging and extremely risky. We have also talked about the possibility of irradiating the facilities from the inside without using a nuclear warhead, but instead planting and detonating a kind of dirty bomb.

There are many other ways to do it, including one on a Jericho BM, or even raiding the place and planing a device inside. We have talked about even irradiating the interior for years.

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) November 2, 2026

What are the alternatives to nuclear weapons?

As we noted earlier in this story, Trump has brought up the issue of conventional weapons to attack Pickaxe Mountain. In July, he said it was ripe for a “nice big fat shot right in the front door.”

At the time, we discussed how difficult it would be to effectively destroy or render inoperable a hardened, deeply buried facility like Pickaxe.

For years, experts have talked about the likelihood that the main caverns under the mountain are beyond the reach of even the largest known conventional bunker buster bomb in U.S. inventory, the 30,000-pound-class GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). The MOP was developed, at least in part, specifically to hold underground facilities in Iran at risk. Construction at Pickaxe Mountain, especially in the past five years, is a clear response to U.S. threats.

MOPs were the centerpiece during the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer strikes, with 12 being dropped on Fordow and another two on Natanz. To get at the actual targets at Fordow, six MOPs were dropped on two specific ventilation shafts, with each successive bomb burrowing deeper down into the complex below. This underscores the challenges that would be involved in attempting a similar operation against Pickaxe Mountain. It is unclear how many MOPs the U.S. has left or whether there are enough to have the same kind of effects on Pickaxe Mountain as they had on Fordow and Natanz. We also don’t even know if any features of the installation, like the ventilation shafts, even exist there to be exploited.

GBU-57 MOP test thumbnail

GBU-57 MOP test

CBS News reported last month that the White House and Pentagon “have prepared plans to use a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb [MOAB] to hit military sites in Iran,” including Pickaxe Mountain, “if ordered by President Trump.” However, the 22,000-pound-class MOAB, also designated the GBU-43/B, is not a deep-penetrating munition, it’s a fuel-air bomb, and it was not immediately clear from that story how the weapon might be employed. The bomb is also only known to be currently cleared for employment via C-130-type aircraft. It has only been used in combat once, in Afghanistan in 2017, where the skies above were entirely permissive. 

The MOAB sitting on its pallet. The weapon is released out of the rear cargo ramp of a C-130. (DoD)

MOAB’s use case would be limited against sites like Pickaxe Mountain. While its unique overpressure effects could harm any personnel exposed inside tunnel systems that are open to the outside world, it is unlikely to destroy or even heavily damage the hardened facilities themselves. It could cause damage to external support infrastructure and act as a psychological weapon in its own right, but it is not a bunker buster in any way.

As mentioned earlier, although for a nuclear weapon insertion mission, a much more dangerous option for American forces would be sending U.S. troops directly into Iran to secure and destroy the facility.

“Special Operations Forces [SOF] could render the site off-limits, at least for a time, but that would be a much riskier operation,” Schwartz noted. 

We addressed the SOF option earlier this year in an interview with former U.S. Central Command commander Joseph Votel, who discussed the enormous challenges of putting boots on the ground so deep into Iranian territory. We have frequently discussed the complexities, and pros and cons of a commando raid on an underground nuclear facility.

In a 2024 raid on a Syrian underground missile site, Israeli special operations forces used explosives they brought with them in order to blow up the underground facility, including sophisticated machinery, from inside.

Still doing this deep in Iran could require a relatively large force and an operation that could last days and would include occupying and defending a key area within the country as teams try to access the caverns. It depends on just how accessible and defended Pickaxe Mountain is.

The fallout dangers of using a nuclear weapon against Iran

The B61-11 “would dig up and disperse into the atmosphere large amounts of radioactive material,” Kristensen told us. 

He pointed to the results he derived from the NUKEMAP nuclear weapons explosion effects simulation site to offer a sense of what could happen.

“A surface burst would, depending on wind conditions, spread debris nearly 300 km downwind,” he explained. “Perhaps further, because the simulation calculates a surface bust, while the B61-11 would penetrate a few meters into the rock and therefore increase the fallout issue.”

A screenshot of a simulation of effects of a U.S. B61-11 nuclear bomb if dropped on Pickaxe Mountain. (NUKEMAP)

If highly enriched uranium was stored underground, it would be hard to determine what would happen to it in such an attack, Kristensen added.

“It depends on how the attack is carried out,” Kristensen noted. “It could potentially be entombed or some of it could be lifted up into the atmosphere.”

“U.S. politicians and some civilian military leaders have, since the first Gulf War, periodically and misleadingly claimed that earth-penetrating nuclear weapons can safely and reliably destroy deeply-buried and hardened underground targets with no significant consequences above ground,” Schwartz proffered. “Nothing could be further from the truth, for the simple reason that earth-penetrating nuclear weapons have to, you know, penetrate the earth. That leaves a hole out of which radioactive dirt and gases will spew following any nuclear explosion (as happened more than once at the Nevada Test Site during the Cold War, when nuclear test shafts thought to be properly and fully stemmed or sealed failed, releasing vast and dangerous amounts of radioactive debris, contaminating both the test site and areas downwind.”)

55 years ago this morning, BANEBERRY—a 10-kiloton, weapons-related, underground nuclear test 912 feet beneath the Nevada Test Site—accidentally vented, releasing 6.7 million curies of radioactive debris, including 80,000 curies of iodine-131, the second largest venting in US history. (THREAD)

— Stephen Schwartz (@atomicanalyst.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T13:30:48.030Z

“The larger the explosion, the larger the venting,” Schwartz added. “Depending on which way the winds are blowing, downwind of Pickaxe Mountain could include Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.”

What about the geopolitical fallout?

In his X post, Carlson offered a blunt assessment of the geopolitical ramifications of a U.S. nuclear strike on Iran.

“An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent,” he stated. “The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable.”

As we have frequently reported, Putin has rattled the nuclear saber against the West as well as in Ukraine since the early days of his full-on invasion of that country.

“The United States has, Republican and Democratic administrations alike, worked hard to ensure that the achievement of no nuclear weapons use since 1945 is continued,” Kristensen told us. “If the Trump regime were to break that taboo, especially in a situation where there is no imminent or executed Iranian nuclear threat to the United States or its allies, it would turn the United States into the nuclear pariah. It would threaten political relations with allies that have also worked to prevent the use of nuclear weapons. And, yes, if the United States were to break the taboo, other nuclear armed states would feel less inhibited — Putin included.”

“If Trump decides to attack Iran with nuclear weapons in a purely preventive war of choice (with Iran presenting no imminent or probably even short-term threat, making such an attack illegal under international law), it will almost certainly unleash both global condemnation (apart from Israel) and a new wave of nuclear proliferation that will be extremely difficult if not impossible to stop,” said Schwartz. “That would be highly counterproductive for the United States and its allies. And while I am not an economist, it’s not hard to imagine there will be severe and negative global economic repercussions as well.”

The sentiments expressed by the nuclear experts echo what Rogoway stated on X.

“The potential game trees for many potential hotspots around the globe post use would be so terrifying it’s hard to comprehend,” he wrote. “All the softer levers the U.S. once had to deter such a thing, which has been effective for the better part of a century would vanish. Proliferation would explode. The U.S. would likely no longer be a superpower beyond it’s military capabilities and likely short-term wealth. [Every] ounce of moral highground would evaporate. The entire world would be on the brink by default.”

He also stated that this would quickly destroy key alliances.

We have no direct information about whether Trump is even contemplating the use a nuclear weapons against Iran or not. However, a discussion of the wide-ranging ramifications of such an unprecedented act is a worthwhile exercise, especially in these uncertain times, and even more so if this possibility has actually been floated within the administration.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Howard is a Senior Staff Writer for TWZ. He writes frequently about conflict, focusing heavily on the Middle East and Ukraine, and interviews with military and intelligence officials and industry leaders from around the globe. He lives near Tampa, Florida, home of U.S. Central Command, U.S. Special Operations Command.




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FIFA to share documents related to World Cup sell-off plan | Football News

FIFA Council members may view documents related to Gianni Infantino’s doomed plan, but only in person in Zurich

FIFA will release details of President Gianni Infantino’s aborted plan to sell off stakes in future World Cups to private investors, but they will not be shared with the public.

Reports in the British media said members of the FIFA Council, the main decision-making body of football’s world governing body, will be given access to “key documents” related to the proposal, named FIFA Forward Enterprise.

However, they can only view them under “strict protocols to preserve confidentiality”, the reports said. Those include the 37 members of the council having to register for an in-person appointment to view selected paperwork in Zurich, Switzerland, in the next two weeks.

FILE -FIFA President Gianni Infantino arrives to attend the opening game of the Women's U20 World Cup opening match between Poland and Argentina in Katowice, Poland, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Beata Zawrzel, File)
Infantino attends the opening game of the 2026 U-20 Women’s World Cup opening match in Katowice, Poland [File: Beata Zawrzel/AP Photo]

The news came out late on Monday, the deadline European football’s governing body, UEFA, had set for FIFA to release details about the $4.2bn scheme and answer questions about how the proposal came about and who approved it before the plans were dropped in July amid a worldwide backlash.

UEFA set the deadline after a tense council meeting at which Infantino apologised for the proposal but provided no details about how the plan was formed. He asked council members to submit their questions in writing.

UEFA is leading attempts to remove Infantino before or at the FIFA presidential election on March 18 in Rabat, Morocco. Infantino, who was elected in 2016, is seeking a fourth term through 2031.

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When will we know who won the US midterms?

Congress is made up of two parts – the lower chamber, the House of Representatives and the upper chamber, the Senate.

To win a majority in the House, a party needs 218 seats. In the Senate, a party needs 51 seats for an outright majority. But if the upper chamber is split 50-50, the vice-president has a tie-breaking vote, which gives their party control of it.

First results will start to come in after 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT). They won’t tell us much about the overall result because these races are in places considered safe bets for Republicans (Kentucky and Indiana) or Democrats (Vermont).

Throughout the night, BBC analysts will focus on the competitive races which will give an indication of how well things are going for Trump.

There are several tight Senate contests in the Eastern Time zone – like Ohio, where polls close at 19:30 EST (00:30 GMT) and Maine, where they shut at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT). These could provide early indications of the electorate’s mood.

Some key contests might start to be “called” by US media outlets. They use models to project which way a state has voted, even before the full vote count has been completed.

This happens when they believe a party or a candidate has gained a lead that cannot be beaten. But in some closely-fought states, outlets could take a long time to make their projections.

The overall timing of the result will depend on how tight the races are and which races end up being decisive.

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Palestine weekly: Election deadlock meets West Bank sieges, Gaza killings | Israel-Palestine conflict News

The election night highs for Palestinian citizens of Israel – Arab-led parties won a record 19 seats – turned into a week of delegitimising rhetoric from Israeli politicians.

Nearly 840,000 people voted for Ra’am and the Joint List, a 64 percent increase on 2022, and adding them to opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc would give an anti-Netanyahu coalition 67 seats; without them, only a unity deal between the main Zionist blocs or another election is possible.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud alleged the election had been “stolen” by Palestinian parties with unproven claims of Qatari financing. Qatar denied such accusations, as police sources told The Times of Israel that there was no evidence of widespread fraud. By Sunday, election committee chairman Noam Sohlberg declared the election “conducted properly”.

However, the rhetoric delegitimising the Palestinian vote is now being reflected in the coalition negotiations under way. Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beytenu party, has ruled out Palestinian partners, and Eisenkot has presented four conditions for anyone joining his coalition that would be anathema to the Palestinian parties, including recognising Israel as “a Jewish, democratic, liberal, and egalitarian state”, and mandatory national service for all citizens, including Palestinians.

However, Palestinian politicians continue to express a willingness to back an Eisenkot government from outside – if only to enable the departure of Netanyahu and the far right. Meanwhile, thousands rallied in Tel Aviv for a coalition that includes the parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel.

10 days of siege in Hebron

While the Israeli electorate was consumed by the election’s unclear results, Palestinians in the occupied West Bank continued enduring a variety of sieges, most prominently in Hebron. By October 29, Al Jazeera’s data unit counted 10 entrances sealed and about 5,000 people displaced. The city saw at least 120 arrests and 13 businesses demolished by Friday, when the army also blew up the homes of two men it blamed for an attack. Palestinian officials accused the government of using the operation to win settler votes; no Israeli official has said so outright.

On November 2, Governor Khaled Dudin announced the army had withdrawn from Hebron, and that displaced families could return. The Jerusalem Post reported that the army’s chief of staff recommended leaving Hebron before the election, but that Netanyahu refused.

But even with the operation over, the damage remains following more than 120 arrests and daily economic losses the governor put at 10 million to 12 million shekels ($3.2m to $3.8m) in a city responsible for about 40 percent of Palestinian industrial output.

Sieges in homes, expulsions from land

But Hebron was only the largest of many closures that continue to plague the West Bank. In Masafer Yatta, at least 12 villages were cut off, and the Palestinian news agency Wafa reported that forces detained 10 teachers from the Jinba school on Sunday.

Yousef Shanaran – who has been besieged in his home with his family in Wadi Rakhim for four weeks now – told Al Jazeera on Monday that settlers have now poisoned the well outside his family home, which the family already was unable to access for days at a time due to the siege. “No water, no food, nothing at all I’ve got,” he said. “Nobody is allowed to bring anything to us.”

These sieges continue as settlers, and increasingly Israeli forces, disrupt the olive harvest across the West Bank. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) documented 397 settler attacks causing casualties or damage in the first 26 days of October – a monthly high since OCHA began tracking such incidents in 2006.

Across villages, a familiar pattern has emerged: settlers attack pickers, the army declares a closed military zone and orders the farmers out, and the harvest is lost.

Amid reports of detentions and deportations of solidarity activists who came to the West Bank to assist in the olive harvest in recent days, activists accused settlers of assaulting three activist journalists at Umm al-Khair, and Israel revoked Brad Lander’s travel authorisation after he was detained while harvesting olives two weeks ago.

Gaza: Deadly ‘ceasefire’ continues

In Gaza, attacks continued on a daily basis as the UN human rights office warned on October 30 that Palestinians are being pushed into an ever smaller area, calling the “Yellow Line” a “kill zone” that is moving westward.

By November 2, the Ministry of Health put the death toll since last year’s ceasefire at 1,593. Sunday was the deadliest day of the week, with at least eight killed. Among those reported killed over the past week:

  • Government and police personnel were among those killed. On October 28, a drone strike on a Ministry of Economy facility in al-Mawasi, Rafah, where staff and security personnel had gathered, killed five people, including Ministry of Agriculture official Wajdi Abu Bakr, who died on Sunday from injuries sustained in the attack.
  • On November 1, a drone strike in al-Mawasi, Khan Younis, killed five men whom Gaza’s Interior Ministry said were police officers.
  • Israeli attacks also killed children. Six-year-old Tahani Shalalfeh died of a gunshot wound in al-Mawasi, Khan Younis, on October 27, and Yamen Saqr, eight, died on October 30 of wounds from Israeli fire in Khan Younis, according to Wafa and local activists. The young child Zain Owais was reported killed on November 1 with his father, Mohammed Ali Owais, and a third man in a strike near Taj Mall in Gaza City.
  • On October 27, a young man was killed in an air strike in west Rafah, and a member of the Bseiso family died of earlier wounds in Gaza City, Gaza Now reported. Mohammad al-Bayouk was killed in Khan Younis on October 28, and Mohammed al-Najjar was killed near Jabalia on Thursday.
  • On Friday, the body of a 47-year-old man killed in an air strike at al-Waha, north of Gaza City, was recovered, Wafa reported.
  • Ibrahim Saeed died on Sunday of wounds from tank fire in al-Musaddar, and Yusuf Abu Younis died Monday of wounds from a drone strike in Khan Younis the day before, according to local activist Hamza al-Masri.
  • On Monday, Mahmoud Qaffa and Asaad Qeshta were killed in separate air strikes in Khan Younis and Ibrahim al-Saayida, 40, in al-Musaddar, according to Wafa and Haaretz.

Israeli authorities claimed many of those killed this week were Hamas fighters, though no evidence was provided. Among those were Diaa Abu al-Rous, killed north of Nuseirat on Saturday, and Mohammed Qudeih, killed in a strike on a tent in Khan Younis the same day, who the military claimed were members of Hamas’s Nukhba Forces; Palestinian reports describe Abu al-Rous as a teacher.

Such killings take place with winter closing in and humanitarian conditions struggling to improve: two infant girls died of burns in a tent fire in al-Mawasi on Friday, and the shelter picture is dire, with Gaza’s Social Development Ministry saying about 200,000 tents are needed, yet only dozens have arrived due to Israeli entry restrictions.

With no hospitals in Gaza fully functioning, the Red Crescent warned on Monday that the health system is at risk of collapse after 26 hospitals went out of service – with fuel shortages threatening the remaining facilities.

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California’s Bay Area debates data centres ahead of US midterm elections | US Midterm Elections 2026 News

Oakland, California – Protesters dressed as cardboard robots chanted and danced to a drumbeat as they protested against new data centres outside Oakland City Hall last month.

Their concerns largely focused on how the centres — which process large amounts of digital information — might strain the energy grid.

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The result, they argued, would not only be environmental harm but also sky-high electricity bills for local households.

“Power prices have gone up so much in Oakland that some people are thinking of shutting off their power,” said Carlos Gutierrez, an activist for Communities for a Better Environment, an environmental justice group.

“And the city is planning to provide power to a data centre instead.”

Opposition to data centres is growing across the United States, as residents express concern about their rapid expansion.

More than 3,000 data centres already operate in the country, with more than 1,500 others in development, according to the Pew Research Center.

But the backlash is perhaps most striking in California’s San Francisco Bay Area, a region considered to be the heart of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

Major AI companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta are based in the Bay Area, and the industry’s growth has been credited with fuelling a local economic renaissance.

Data centres house the advanced computer chips and servers needed to run AI-powered services such as Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

But they also require 24-hour power and a large supply of water to cool their processors.

Even with such cooling technology, data centres are notorious for emitting heat, leading to an increase in land surface temperatures as high as 9 degrees Celsius (16 degrees Fahrenheit).

A couple sits on the steps of Oakland City Hall in California next to a sign that reads, ‘No data center in Oakland’
A couple sits on the steps of Oakland City Hall in California next to a sign that reads, ‘No data center in Oakland’ [Saumya Roy/Al Jazeera]

A midterm election issue

Concerns about the cost of rapid data centre growth, both environmentally and financially, have catapulted the issue into the discourse around Tuesday’s midterm elections.

In the final two months before the vote, at least seven Bay Area cities, including San Francisco and Richmond, have passed temporary moratoriums on data centre construction.

They include Oakland, which passed a data centre moratorium on October 6, after days of protest.

Local politicians competing in Tuesday’s midterms have also used the topic as a wedge issue, to rally support among certain pockets of voters.

One of the most closely watched races in the Bay Area is for the seat left vacant by longtime Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. After 39 years in the House of Representatives, Pelosi is retiring at the end of the year.

Two Democrats are competing in Tuesday’s election to fill her position in Congress: San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan and state Senator Scott Wiener.

Each one has staked out a different position on AI data centres. Wiener, for instance, opposes any ban on data centres.

“A blanket data centre moratorium could undermine AI regulation,” he told the publication Mission Local.

Chan, meanwhile, has pledged to seek a nationwide moratorium on data centres, at least until responsible AI regulation is put in place.

“Let’s start with a moratorium on data centres. Allow us to have that moment to regulate artificial intelligence,” she said at a debate in October.

Chan played a leading role in passing San Francisco’s moratorium in early October.

A poll from the University of Southern California showed Wiener leading Chan 47 percent to 41, as of mid-October.

Congressional candidate Connie Chan, Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi and former San Francisco mayor Willie Brown stand together during an electoral rally in San Francisco, California, U.S., May 29, 2026. REUTERS/Manuel Orbegozo
Congressional candidate Connie Chan, left, stands next to outgoing US Representative Nancy Pelosi and former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown at a campaign event in San Francisco, California, on May 29, 2026 [File: Manuel Orbegozo/Reuters]

“Right now, data centre opposition is an issue that unifies the US public like no other,” said Shum Preston, a political analyst based in San Francisco.

So far, there has been relatively little opposition to the data centre moratoriums in local hearings. But he speculates that there may be several reasons for the lack of pushback to the bans.

Among them are the surveys indicating widespread public backlash to data centre creation.

An October CNBC poll found that 63 percent of registered US voters oppose building data centres within 16 kilometres, or 10 miles, of their homes.

“Data centres poll very poorly, and developers probably don’t want to put their supervisor friends in trouble ahead of elections. So they probably let this pass,” Preston said.

He also signalled that the short-term nature of the moratoriums may be a factor.

Certain Bay Area cities like San Francisco, Brisbane and Oakland paused construction on data centres for 45 days, with the option to extend the ban later.

Opponents of the moratoriums “will be more vocal when” the 45 days end, Preston said. By that time, the heat of the midterm election season will also have settled, he added.

“That’s when the hearings will get more contentious,” he said.

Opponents of data centres have cited environmental costs as well as higher utility bills as reasons to ban their construction
Opponents of data centres have cited environmental costs as well as higher utility bills as reasons to ban their construction [Saumya Roy/Al Jazeera]

Not long enough?

Another hurdle facing the moratoriums is the lack of transparency surrounding data centre construction.

Supervisor Shamann Walton, who sponsored San Francisco’s moratorium ordinance, has argued that the city’s definition of “data centres” is outdated.

Created in 2001 — long before the AI boom — the city planning code defines data centres as “internet service exchanges”, a definition that may not accurately characterise the technology today.

Walton said the outdated language has made it hard for authorities to count how many data centres exist in the city.

Not being able to identify data centres can also prevent city officials from monitoring their power and water usage.

“We cannot use 2001 rules to regulate 2026 technology,” he said in a September 14 statement.

Another issue is the time it takes to carry out the necessary environmental assessments. The moratoriums may not offer enough time for a comprehensive review.

“Forty-five days is hardly enough time to document and study the impacts and then frame regulations,” said Roger Lin, senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, a US environmental nonprofit.

He added that legal barriers limit access to such information from the data centres themselves.

“Data centres often have nondisclosure agreements, so even local air quality boards may not know the impact of data centres on air quality,” said Lin.

Supporters tout economic benefits

Still, AI industry supporters have touted the growth of the data centres as evidence of a flourishing industry, with positive downstream effects for US communities.

Anthropic, for instance, is preparing an initial public offering (IPO) that is likely to raise billions of dollars.

But critics warn that the company’s growth may not translate into an economic boom for the San Francisco Bay Area overall.

Instead, residents fear unequal economic growth that primarily benefits the wealthy. Already, San Francisco faces some of the highest and fastest-growing home rental prices in the country.

At a hearing at San Francisco City Hall, a resident vented their frustrations about the data centres to the supervisors.

“This city is less for humans and more for robots and billionaires,” the resident said.

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‘Going hungry’: Garment workers in Bangladesh say wages barely cover needs | Workers’ Rights News

Dhaka, Bangladesh – Laili Begum can no longer afford to keep her two children in school. There are days when the 37-year-old garment worker struggles to put even one proper meal on the table.

An experienced sewing operator at Virtual Bottoms Limited, a ready-made garments factory near Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka, Begum earns around 15,000 taka ($121) a month, which sometimes rises to 18,000–20,000 taka ($145–$161) when she works overtime.

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Her 15-year-old daughter and 12-year-old son dropped out of school earlier this year because she could not afford their education.

“We can barely afford one proper meal a day. This morning, we had only puffed rice and Bombay mix [a snack]. There was nothing for lunch. We’ve been going hungry, hoping to have a proper meal tonight. Yesterday was the same. This is how we survive now,” she told Al Jazeera.

“My son is so thin that you can count every rib in his chest. What else can I do?”

Begum is among approximately four million garment factory workers in Bangladesh, half of them women. They are now protesting for better wages.

Bangladesh, the world’s second-largest apparel exporter after China, is a key supplier to global fashion brands such as H&M, Zara, Levi Strauss, Walmart, and Primark. The country’s ready-made garment sector accounts for more ⁠than 80 percent of its export earnings, which touched $39bn last financial year.

Yet, the people sewing those clothes say their pay no longer covers basic living costs.

‘Government only makes promises’

A Muslim-majority South Asian nation of 170 million people, Bangladesh has one of the world’s lowest wages among apparel-producing countries.

Cambodia has a minimum wage of $210 a month for garment workers, Vietnam’s range from $140-$210, while wages at China’s manufacturing hub of Guangdong range between $286 and $378.

That disparity – worsened by rising inflation and the growing cost of living – pushed the workers to strike and hit the streets on Saturday to demand a minimum wage of 30,000 taka ($241), more than double the current wage of 12,500 taka ($102).

On Sunday, Begum joined one such protest in the Jamgora part of the Ashulia industrial area on the outskirts of the capital Dhaka, with the police firing tear gas and stun grenades to disperse the protesters, and arresting dozens of them.

A police vehicle burns after garment workers set it on fire during a protest demanding higher wages in Dhaka, Bangladesh, November 1, 2026
A police vehicle burns after garment workers set it on fire during a protest demanding higher wages in Dhaka, Bangladesh, November 1, 2026 [Jannatul Ferdaus/Reuters]

The ⁠Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association said the demonstrations disrupted operations at 529 factories on Sunday and affected nearly a million workers.

Later that day, the government announced the formation of a six-member wage board to review the workers’ demands.

But that did not stop the garment workers from returning to the streets for a third straight day on Monday.

In northern Dhaka’s Gazipur area, the workers blocked the Dhaka-Tangail highway, and vandalised and torched several vehicles, while clashes with police were reported from the neighbouring Mirpur district.

“The government only makes promises,” Begum told Al Jazeera. “They haven’t told us when wages will increase and by how much.”

Inflation eating into wages

Rasel Khan, a 30-year-old garment worker at Ashulia, told Al Jazeera his monthly earnings of 18,000–20,000 taka ($145–$161), including overtime, were no longer enough to support his family, which included his mother and younger brother besides his wife and child.

As living costs soar, he has accumulated a debt of about 100,000 taka ($805) to meet his needs. “It’s impossible to support a family on this income anymore. Prices keep rising, and we have to borrow money just to survive,” he said.

The last revision of the minimum wage in the garment sector took place in December 2023. Since then, prices have continued to climb. Official data put annual inflation at 8.34 percent in September, including 7.22 percent for food and 9.30 percent for non-food expenses.

Begum says she pays 3,500 taka ($28) as rent for a single room shared with her mother and children. Her father, living in their village in the central district of Sirajganj, also depends on her income.

She says she is burning discarded paper and other materials to cook because she is not able to afford a gas cylinder that costs about 2,200 taka ($18).

Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said persistent inflation over the past five years has sharply eroded the purchasing power of low-paid workers.

“When real income falls, they have to cut their daily living standards,” he told Al Jazeera. “They don’t have any surplus income.”

Hussain said a recent hike in the salary of government employees has had a “demonstration effect” among private-sector workers waiting for a similar relief.

The government’s announcement of a wage board follows an amendment to labour laws to reduce the wage review cycle from five years to three years. The current three-year period ends in December.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman convened an emergency meeting of top government officials on Sunday, while Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed met the garment factory owners on Monday, assuring them that a new minimum wage would be fixed through negotiations.

Labour Minister Ariful Haque Choudhury meanwhile urged the workers to resume work, saying the wage board would begin its deliberations shortly.

But Babul Akhter, a workers’ representative on the board, called for the new wages to take effect with January 2027 salaries. He also asked the demonstrators to return to work and demanded the release of arrested workers and withdrawal of cases against them.

Garment workers throw bricks at members of the police during a protest demanding higher wages in Dhaka
Garment workers clash with police during a protest in Dhaka, November 1, 2026 [Jannatul Ferdaus/Reuters]

‘Western brands hold lion’s share’

The impending wage negotiations come at a challenging time for Bangladesh’s garment industry, as manufacturers balance workers’ demands for better wages with rising production costs and intensifying global competition.

Sheikh Hossain Muhammad Mustafiz, an official at Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association and managing director of Cute Dress Industry Ltd, told Al Jazeera that fair wages and employment security must go hand in hand with their ability to compete in the international market.

“Workers deserve wages that support a decent standard of living. However, without fair purchasing prices from international brands, significant wage increases could put pressure on factories and threaten employment,” he said.

Mustafiz emphasised that protecting the workers’ purchasing power amid rising inflation is a responsibility that global brands that buy Bangladeshi garments must share.

“Sustainable wage growth cannot be achieved by manufacturers alone,” he said. “International brands must contribute through fair pricing and responsible purchasing practices to protect both the workers’ livelihoods and the industry’s long-term sustainability.”

Taqbir Huda, a Tech Global Institute senior fellow at the University of Oxford, accused the western brands who buy Bangladeshi garments of not addressing the issue of the workers’ rights.

“One party that could change the situation overnight has held the most extractive and exploitative role: the western buyer brands who hold the lion’s share of the value that is generated by the clothes that these workers produce,” he told Al Jazeera.

Huda said the wage board, which was due this year, was announced only after the workers began their protest.

“History gives very little reason for the workers to believe anything will improve unless they protest,” he said, adding that the formation of the wage board does not meet their demands unless it addresses rising inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.

For Begum, a drawn-out process to decide the new wages means another month of struggle to feed her family.

“Wages must rise, but food prices must also come down.”

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US midterms present a test for Republican redistricting in Texas and beyond | US Midterm Elections 2026 News

Houston, Texas – The gospel music from Mount Hebron Missionary Baptist Church spills into the streets of Sunnyside, a predominantly Black neighbourhood in southern Houston.

It is a familiar scene on any given Sunday: hands in the air, immaculate bow ties on starched shirts, fabric flowers adorning perfectly pastel hats. But with the US midterm elections just two days away, the service held a special significance on the front line of a US redistricting battle.

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Mt Hebron had long been located in the ninth congressional district, its politically engaged Black voters for two decades helping to elect Democrat Al Green, a flamboyant presence in Congress known for his cane-waving opposition to US President Donald Trump.

But following an appeal from Trump, the Republican state legislature last year conducted rare mid-decade redistricting, redrawing the church and its Black community into the Black-majority 18th district.

Critics call the process “cracking and packing”, diminishing the representation in Congress of minority groups, particularly heavily Democratic Black communities, by consolidating their voting power into fewer districts.

“It’s kind of one and the same when we talk about the voting and the civil rights,” said Pastor Max Miller, who has served at the church for 18 years.

“They are trying to manipulate and monopolise the vote and minimise the people who are in those districts,” said Miller. “We see so much rolling backwards that it looks like they’re trying to take a script from an old song and turn back the hands of time.”

Mount Hebron Missionary Baptist Church in Houston, Texas
Mount Hebron Missionary Baptist Church in Houston, Texas [Joseph Stepansky/Al Jazeera]

As a result of the redistricting, Green was forced to run in a primary against 18th district incumbent Christian Menefee, another Black Democrat. He lost, and Houston lost one of its Black representatives in Congress.

The ninth district, meanwhile, was redrawn to favour Republicans, one of at least five US congressional seats the party hopes to pick up in the midterm vote.

The machinations have resonated with worshippers at Mt Hebron.

“I don’t like the redistricting at all because Al Green was moved out,” said 97-year-old Alice Jefferson, who had followed the congressman throughout his political career. “He always had good advice for the people.”

Voter Alice Jefferson, 97, is seen in the Sunnyside neighbourhood of Houston, Texas
Voter Alice Jefferson, 97, is seen in the Sunnyside neighbourhood of Houston, Texas [Joseph Stepansky/Al Jazeera]

Janice Ray, a 61-year-old home health aide and entrepreneur, said state lawmakers were “trying to move people out of the district that they’re familiar with”.

“To me, it was all a bunch of BS,” she said. “There was no reason for it.”

“But we’ll stand firm, regardless of what they try to do,” Ray added. “Because just like it was changed, it can always be changed back.”

‘Voices have been weakened’

The redistricting process has undergone a generational transformation this election season, one that, experts say, has degraded longstanding guardrails protecting minority voting power.

“In political science, we have what we call descriptive representation,” Michael Adams, a professor at Texas Southern University in Houston, told Al Jazeera. “In terms of descriptive representation, minorities and others feel that if they can elect someone who reflects their values, for example, and who may look like them, their voting can be defined as one voice.”

“And certainly with not having an additional Black member of Congress representing Houston, a significant segment of Black voters may feel that their voices have been weakened,” he said.

Texas was only the beginning.

This year Republican and Democratic state legislatures across the country joined the spree: Republicans successfully redistricted in Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida and Ohio; Democrats did so in California, while a court-ordered map in Utah handed Democrats a favourable seat. A Democratic push in Virginia was subsequently invalidated.

Redrawing maps mid-decade, and not waiting for the latest demographic numbers from the US census, was already atypical. But many of the maps drawn this year would have been deemed illegal in previous cycles.

Section 2 of the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965, initially passed to counter blatantly racist voting practices in the US, had long prohibited redrawing congressional maps to dilute the electoral power of minority voters.

In April, the conservative-dominated US Supreme Court ruled that anyone challenging such a map must prove “racist intent”. Critics have said the ruling effectively allows for racial gerrymandering, with proving such an intent an unreasonably high bar.

But critics of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act have said drawing maps to protect minority voting power is in itself discriminatory.

Defenders in Texas, meanwhile, have said the redistricting was based on the shifting political makeup of the state, and not racial gerrymandering.

“This plan includes political considerations, public testimony, recognition of population growth and recent changes in voter trends,” State Representative Todd Hunter, a Republican, said shortly after the new map’s passage last year.

“Each of these newly drawn districts now trend Republican in political performance. While there’s no guarantee of electoral success, Republicans will now have an opportunity to potentially win these districts,” he said.

A political test

There are no guarantees that a party’s redistricting plans will actually work.

Following the tit-for-tat map redrawings, Republicans hoped to net at least 13 seats nationally. Polling has suggested their gains may be much more muted.

All told, about 35 million US voters will be casting ballots in newly redistricted seats this election.

“Redistricting can change the political boundaries, but it can’t guarantee how voters will behave,” Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor at the University of Houston, told Al Jazeera.

In Texas, the Republican map was drawn largely based on recent Latino voting trends. The demographic swung heavily for Trump in the state in 2024, despite once being considered a reliable Democratic voting bloc.

Beyond the ninth congressional district in Houston, Republicans hoped to pick up four other districts, most based in South Texas, with an eye on shifting Latino sentiment.

But the political tides have again turned. Trump’s popularity has tanked among Latino voters, fuelled in part by unrest over the economy and the administration’s aggressive deportation campaign.

It remains to be seen how that will reflect at the ballot box when Texas voters pick a senator, governor, members of Congress and a slate of state and local officials.

“These districts are a test of whether political dissatisfaction can overcome an aggressively partisan map,” Rottinghaus said.

‘Trying to mobilise’

With new boundaries come new opportunities.

The ninth district is now considered Republican-favoured, but its large population of low-propensity Latino voters creates a pathway for a Democratic victory, according to Dayana Iza, Texas state director of Mi Familia Vota, a Latino voting organisation that has focused resources on the congressional race.

The state legislature “kept a big portion of Latino voters there, but the reality is that the Latino percentage in that district that votes is very, very low,” Iza told Al Jazeera. “So that then became a district that we are trying to mobilise in terms of turnout.”

On the Saturday ahead of the November 3 vote, Democratic candidate Leticia Gutierrez and State Senator Molly Cook zigzagged through a neighbourhood of single-family homes in eastern Houston.

US congressional candidate Leticia Gutierrez, left, and Texas State Senator Molly Cook knock on doors in Houston, Texas
US congressional candidate Leticia Gutierrez, left, and Texas State Senator Molly Cook knock on doors in Houston, Texas [Joseph Stepansky/Al Jazeera]

Any path to victory, Gutierrez assessed, would be based on face time and a chance to connect with disillusioned voters.

“This community here has an average annual income of $63,000 a year. I make a little over that, and it’s difficult,” Gutierrez told Al Jazeera. “At this point, it’s not a left or a right thing anymore. This is an affordability crisis.”

“You’ve heard some of the voters out here say this is the first time someone actually came to my door,” she added. “That means a lot, and so we want to continue to do that.”

Among the residents was Christian Garcia, a 53-year-old who works at a local chemical plant and has not voted since moving to Texas from Puerto Rico in 2014. He said he is focused on his family, saving enough for retirement and eventually leaving some money behind for his adult children.

Voter Christian Garcia stands in his garage in Houston, Texas
Voter Christian Garcia stands in his garage in Houston, Texas [Joseph Stepansky/Al Jazeera]

In the past, Garcia said, he felt voting was “wasting my time”.

“You know, it’s a lot of corruption and things,” said Garcia. “I just don’t believe in anybody anymore.”

Down the block, Esmeralda Gil, a 39-year-old teacher, said she hoped for a Democratic surge.

Gil questioned why taxes, particularly on housing, seemed so high, while so many struggled to access healthcare.

“We need affordable healthcare and affordable housing,” she said.

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Melbourne Cup: King’s former horse Point Of Law wins prestigious Australian race

Australian jockey Ethan Brown has ridden Point Of Law, a horse previously owned by King Charles, to victory in this year’s Melbourne Cup, the country’s most prestigious race.

Point of Law, which was bought from the King earlier this year for an undisclosed sum, was considered an early favourite.

Brown pushed Point Of Law from the middle of the pack to take the lead with just a few hundred metres to go.

The Melbourne Cup has run in Australia since 1861, often referred to as the “race that stops a nation”. With a prize of A$10.2m ($7.04m; £5.3m), it is the country’s third richest race.

“Don’t wake me up,” said Brown, in the post-race interview.

“Just stay cool, stay patient,” Brown said, recalling his thoughts as he pushed Point Of Law to overtake Royal Supremacy from a dozen lengths behind on the home stretch.

This is a breaking news story – we’ll bring you more details as we get them.

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Thousands displaced as homes are bulldozed in India’s Assam state | Infrastructure

Hundreds of homes have been bulldozed in the Dhubri district of Assam state in northeastern India as part of a government campaign to evict families it says do not legally live there. Local media says most of the 4,000 people displaced were Bengali-speaking Muslims.

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Explosions hit Iran’s Qeshm Island as US media report US strikes in Hormuz | US-Israel war on Iran News

Iranian media report several explosions in Qeshm Island and Bandar Lengeh, as US media say the US military carried out the strikes.

Several explosions have been heard on Iran’s Qeshm Island, as media outlets in the United States reported that the US military carried out what officials called “defensive strikes” in the Strait of Hormuz.

The blasts came in rapid succession late on Monday, according to Iran’s state-owned IRNA news agency. Witnesses told the agency they saw two planes flying over the island, located off Iran’s southern coast near the Strait of Hormuz.

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The semi-official Fars news agency said explosions were also heard in the port city of Bandar Lengeh, coming from the direction of the sea.

The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported that the US military carried out the strikes.

Some officials told the Journal the strikes were defensive, aimed at restricting Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. One official said Washington had deliberately kept the campaign quiet to avoid signalling a return to major combat operations.

The Associated Press news agency also cited a US official as saying the US had conducted defensive strikes against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. The official said that “Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against U.S. assets” had been targeted.

Reporters with Fox News and Axios said the attacks were in response to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) firing at a US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Citing a US official, Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin said the incident did not mark “the start of expanded strikes by the US”.

There was no immediate comment from authorities in Iran or the US.

Earlier on Monday, the IRGC claimed it had captured two US reconnaissance drones south of Qeshm, using electronic warfare systems, and destroyed an MQ-9 drone east of the Strait of Hormuz.

The alleged US attacks come on the eve of crucial midterm elections in the US, with President Donald Trump’s Republican Party fighting to keep control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

They also come amid intensifying diplomatic efforts to prevent renewed US attacks on Iran.

Trump, writing on his Truth Social platform on Monday, suggested that a deal with Iran could happen soon.

“Oil Prices are dropping like a rock, down almost $10 a Barrel, a record, because people feel that there will not be a war with Iran,” he wrote. “Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!”

Earlier, when asked by reporters if he was considering striking Iran ⁠after Tuesday’s midterm elections, Trump replied “no”.

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei had said Tehran’s demands for peace had been clearly communicated to Washington and “the ball is in the US court”.

He said Iran’s proposed plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had been condensed and could be implemented within two days if Washington met Tehran’s conditions. These included the US lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports and securing an end to hostilities, paving the way for the reopening of the strait and renewed negotiations.

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US urges Venezuela to follow phased plan for democratic transition | Politics News

This comes as leading opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, returns to Venezuela and hints at criticism of Trump administration.

The United States has urged Venezuela to continue on a phased plan of economic recovery and political reconciliation before embarking on democratic elections.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the gradual plan during a meeting on the country’s political future with Venezuelan Minister of Foreign Affairs Oliver Blanco on Monday. The meeting comes nearly a year after US forces abducted former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas and brought him to the US to face drug trafficking and other charges.

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Neither Rubio nor Blanco spoke to the media after the meeting, but in a readout. The State Department said in a readout that Washington had reaffirmed President Donald Trump’s “three-phase plan for Venezuela: stabilization, economic recovery and political reconciliation, and democratic transition”.

Last week, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado returned to her country, thanking the US president and Rubio for their support. Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate who gifted her medal to Trump in 2025, said she had come to organise a movement in preparation for Venezuelan elections.

Rubio “has set out a sequence of events aimed at moving toward a democratic transition that makes clear the holding of presidential elections in 2027”, she said.

Machado is balancing an election campaign with a Trump administration that has sought to extract oil from Venezuela by striking deals with the government of interim President Delcy Rodriguez, who served as Maduro’s vice president and took over after his abduction.

In September, the Trump administration said it had struck a deal with Venezuela that would give Washington a stake in about one-fifth of the country’s oil resources.

The US said it was creating a joint venture with North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), owned by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, which is the second-largest private oil operator in Venezuela, behind Chevron.

Under the deal, Caracas is giving the company 100-year rights over 17 oilfields with proven reserves of 65 billion barrels. The Pentagon will have a 35 percent stake in NABEP, and the US will be guaranteed the right to buy 20 percent of its oil output at cost, the Trump administration has said.

Shortly before Machado’s statements on Thursday, Rodriguez assured the nation that elections would be held in Venezuela “with the world as witness”, but did not specify a date.

When asked about a possible meeting with Rodriguez, Machado said she had not received any message from the interim president or from Washington.

In remarks after returning Venezuela, Machado seemed sceptical of the oil agreement with the US.

“This agreement does not reflect the levels of transparency that Venezuelan society wants,” Machado said.

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Multiple Russian strikes kill at least 26 at Ukraine aid centre | Russia-Ukraine war News

At least 26 people were killed in Russian strikes on a school being used as a humanitarian aid centre in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine’s president says there were two separate strikes, an initial attack, and then a second one on a building where residents were hiding.

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Trump approval rating near record low on eve of US midterm elections: Poll | US Midterm Elections 2026 News

Only 32 percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Ahead of the United States midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating continues to sit near a record low, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Some 32 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the presidency, 1 percentage point above his rating two weeks ago.

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Meanwhile, the Republican Party continues to be unpopular among those polled: When asked whether they would vote for a generic Democrat or Republican candidate, 46 percent of respondents preferred Democrats compared with 38 percent preferring Republicans.

Trump himself is not on the ballot, but he has repeatedly told his supporters to vote as if they are voting for him. If the Republican Party loses control of the US Congress, Trump has warned, Democrats may seek to impeach him for a third time.

Trump’s approval rating has dropped steadily, polls suggest, especially since the launch of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28. The conflict has driven up petrol and diesel prices and has had secondary effects for US consumers worried about inflation and the economy.

The president embarked on a nearly monthlong campaign blitz ahead of the November 3 midterms in an effort to shore up support for Republican candidates, who are trying to retain control of the US House of Representatives and Senate.

Trump wrapped up his campaigning on Monday afternoon with a rally in Washington, DC, at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. The president has devoted significant attention to the site as part of his attempt to renovate the capital. The job ran months late and cost more than 10 times its original estimate, with a special liner for the pool that Trump touted peeling away soon after it was installed.

“It was a work of art that never worked, but now it will work,” Trump said at the rally. He spent much of his speech on his renovation plans for the city, including a “Triumphal Arch”, which is facing legal challenges.

Trump seemed to acknowledge on Monday that his campaigning might not deliver the results he wants for his party, but said this was the political norm for midterm elections.

“For some reason, the sitting president doesn’t win the midterms,” Trump said. “But we gave this a very strong shot.”

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War, tariffs and China: What the US midterms mean for the Asia-Pacific | US Midterm Elections 2026 News

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – Across the Asia-Pacific region, governments and businesses reeling from the energy shock of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran are watching Tuesday’s US midterm elections closely.

Many want to see “enormous changes” during the rest of President Donald Trump’s term, analysts say, from the war on Iran to his policies on trade and tariffs. But few expect that to happen, even with the Democrats poised to take the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate, from Trump’s Republican Party.

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“Of course, everybody is watching,” said Steven Okun, a trade specialist and the chief executive of APAC Advisors, a Singapore-based consulting firm. “It’s great political theatre.”

Outside the Middle East, no region has been hit harder by the war on Iran than the Asia-Pacific. Before the start of the conflict in January, the region took in most of the Gulf oil and gas that passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

When Iran closed the chokepoint in response to the US and Israel’s strikes, much of the region was left facing shortages.

The Philippines, which relies on the Gulf for more than 90 percent of its crude oil imports, has been under a national energy emergency since March. Soaring fuel costs have drained the foreign exchange reserves of the region’s poorest economies – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and East Timor, according to the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have also spent heavily on fuel subsidies to shield consumers, it said.

Public opinion in the Asia-Pacific region remains firmly opposed to the war, but Okun said a Democratic-controlled US Congress was unlikely to force Trump to end the eight-month conflict.

“With Iran, I don’t see [a Democrat-controlled Congress] having much change at all, other than the fact that the war will be investigated and there will be oversight hearings,” Okun told Al Jazeera. “We might even see an impeachment of the secretary of defence, but it doesn’t change the overall impact of the war.”

Under the US Constitution, Congress holds the power to formally declare war, but Trump has claimed the attacks on Iran were in self-defence and has so far ignored congressional resolutions directing him to withdraw US forces from hostilities. If a Democrat-controlled Congress passes legislation restricting military operations or cutting funding for them, Trump can veto it. Overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which Democrats are almost certain to fall short of.

‘Tariffs don’t change’

On trade and tariffs, too, analysts see little room for Congress to rein in Trump.

The US president rattled global markets last year when he imposed “reciprocal” tariffs of 10 percent to 50 percent on some 90 countries, with the aim of shrinking the US trade deficit. Asia was again hit harder than most. Cambodia faced a 49 percent tariff and Laos 48 percent. Vietnam was slapped with 46 percent and Myanmar 45 percent.

After the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs in February, the Trump administration turned to other tools. In July, it imposed tariffs of 10 percent and 12.5 percent on goods from 60 trading partners, accusing them of failing to stop imports made with forced labour. In Asia, the list includes China, Japan, South Korea and seven Southeast Asian nations – Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

“In some ways, the new Congress is not going to matter to the Asia Pacific because it’s not going to affect trade policy,” Okun said. “Congress cannot change that … Tariffs don’t change. The war doesn’t change.”

Still, some analysts see a narrow opening.

Stephen Olson, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, argued in a recent essay that a “strong rebuke of ‘Trumpism’” at the polls could embolden a pro-free-trade wing of the Republican Party that has been “intimidated into standing down during the Trump presidency”.

That, Olson wrote, offers “a glimmer of hope” for Southeast Asian countries that depend on the US market. A Democratic-controlled Congress, he said, could also push for carve-outs and exceptions that would give the region’s exporters “a modicum of relief”. But any deeper shift in US trade policy, he added, will have to wait for the 2028 presidential election.

Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the region’s wish list goes beyond trade to security.

“I think nearly all of Asia would like to see enormous changes, across many domains, during the rest of Trump’s term,” he told Al Jazeera. “But I think much of the region believes this will not happen.”

Besides “more stability” in trade and tariff policy, Asia-Pacific countries “would like to feel more stable in security guarantees from the US,” he said. They would also like a “more clear, obvious US presence” in the South China Sea, where China’s claims overlap with those of five Southeast Asian nations, and in the Taiwan Strait, which separates China from Taiwan, the self-governed island Beijing claims as its territory.

Businesses will also be watching whether a major Republican loss leads to “greater GOP willingness in Congress to stand up to Trump, along with Democrats, on issues important to companies in Asia,” Kurlantzick said, including tariffs, trade policy, arms sales and “overall economic unpredictability”.

US-China ties

One area where analysts do expect some change is US policy on Chinese technology.

The new Congress, whichever party controls it, will pass tougher restrictions on China, said Okun at APAC Advisors.

These include the Remote Access Security Act, which would extend export controls to remote access of US goods, software or technology and the Chip Security Act, which would require companies to verify that advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips remain in authorised locations, to prevent diversion to foreign adversaries. It also includes the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act, known as the MATCH Act, which would press allies to bring their controls on chipmaking equipment in line with Washington’s, to keep advanced chipmaking technology out of China’s hands.

“The next Congress is going to pass them regardless of midterms because both parties agree on them,” Okun said. “The person who is least restrictive now on China is the US president,” he added, referring to Trump’s courting of China’s President Xi Jinping.

The two men have met twice this year as ties have warmed after a bitter and costly trade war last year. To preserve the fragile trade truce, Trump has also held off approving a $14bn package of arms sales to Taiwan, which would be the largest ever for Taipei.

Some analysts meanwhile worry that a lame-duck Trump, hemmed in at home by a Democratic Congress, could turn more forcefully to foreign policy.

“We should not be surprised by continued erratic foreign policy,” said James Guild, an assistant professor at the Indonesian International Islamic University.

“The Democrats have a poor record of effectively opposing and holding Trump accountable using conventional tools of congressional oversight,” Guild said. “We will have to wait and see if they rise to the moment this time.”

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Fan jeers, shipping goals and blunt attack – Jaissle has big problems at Newcastle

No Premier League side has lost more home games in 2026 than Newcastle (7), while they have now lost 16 of their past 18 league games when conceding first.

The Magpies have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their past 14 home league games – the longest run in their league history.

It all points to worrying times, with Jaissle just three months into a four-year contract.

“I fear a little for Newcastle,” former Liverpool and England defender Jamie Carragher said on Sky Sports.

“They have a young manager and young players. You are always going to question the manager when the team is not winning.

“I think it is going to be a tough season. At home, especially, it feels flat and boring, and I never expected to say about Jaissle’s Newcastle. You expected it to be front-footed and exciting, coming from the Red Bull model.”

Newcastle are in the bottom half of the table, with 11 points from nine games.

It was always going to be a period of transition following Eddie Howe’s exit, after five years in charge, and the arrival of 38-year-old Jaissle, after successful spells in Saudi Arabia and Austria.

In addition, Newcastle lost a number of key players in the summer including Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes.

At the start of the year, Newcastle United‘s chief executive David Hopkinson said he could put them “in the debate about being the top club in the world” by 2030.

That now seems a long way off amid suggestions the ambitions of the club’s Saudi Arabian owners, the Public Investment Fund, are running out of steam.

Jaissle was not helped on Monday by his goalkeeper, with Hornicek allowing a routine shot to squirm under his body for Thierno Barry to tap home the winner.

The Newcastle boss claimed Barry’s winner should have been disallowed for a foul on Fabian Schar in the build-up, but he conceded his players had struggled to show the bravery required to get back in the game.

“It’s almost like a negative spiral,” he said. “I’m not happy with the referee decision.

“Unfortunately we couldn’t deliver actually over the whole 90 minutes. It was not our game and our style of playing.

“That is something we are very frustrated and disappointed about. If you cannot deliver when it counts then you don’t deserve to win.

“We were not brave enough in possession, too many long balls.”

Jaissle admitted Newcastle are lacking belief in the midst of their miserable run.

“There are certain moments with not too much confidence, not only with the young lads but also with the more experienced ones,” he said.

“It’s a difficult period. We also know you can only overcome that as a unit. We worked hard and it looked good but unfortunately we couldn’t deliver.

“We will analyse in detail and try and make things better against Fulham.”

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Mamdani’s progressive allies vie for seats in Congress | US Midterm Elections 2026 News

In June, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani stood before a packed house of voters, rallying support for a new wave of candidates hoping to build on his progressive momentum by winning seats in Congress.

Inside Brooklyn’s historic Kings Theatre, the crowd answered chants of “Abolish ICE”, “Tax the rich” and “Free Palestine” with roaring applause, leaving little if any room for doubt about what the audience wanted from its politicians.

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Within days, all three congressional hopefuls endorsed by Mamdani – Claire Valdez, Brad Lander and Darializa Avila Chevalier – had won their Democratic primaries, becoming the party’s candidates in the midterm election.

Lander, the former New York City comptroller, defeated Congressman Dan Goldman in a race in which Israel was the defining issue.

Avila Chevalier, a community organiser, unseated longtime Congressman Adriano Espaillat. Valdez, a lawmaker in the New York State Assembly and member of Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), won the contest to succeed retiring Congresswoman Nydia Velazquez.

Both Valdez and Avila Chevalier had the backing of New York City’s DSA chapter.

The candidates’ heavily Democratic districts mean they are likely to win congressional seats in Tuesday’s midterm elections. The June Democratic Party primaries effectively served as the main event for voters.

In the final hours before Tuesday’s midterm election, New York City – a place colloquially dubbed the city that never sleeps – is more politically sleepy, with canvassers a bit harder to find than they were in the final stretch before the primaries.

For the three progressive candidates, the past few months have been a test of how to turn bold campaign promises into policy they can actually deliver. The often slow minutiae of daily governance stand in stark contrast to buzzword-laden campaign slogans on the posters and signs galvanising their base of voters.

Unique paths to politics

The three congressional candidates’ platforms overlap on issues like abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), ending US military aid to Israel and establishing a public healthcare system dubbed Medicare for All. But their paths into progressive politics differ.

Lander spent years in the New York City government, most recently as comptroller overseeing the city’s finances. After losing to Mamdani in the 2025 Democratic mayoral primary, he backed Mamdani in the election.

But Lander’s congressional campaign against incumbent Goldman brought him national attention, with Israel and Palestine emerging as the defining issue in the race to lead a district with one of the largest Jewish populations in the United States.

Lander has described Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as genocide and its occupation of Palestinian territory as apartheid. He also identifies as a Zionist who embraces pro-Palestinian activism, arguing that the positions are not mutually exclusive. Lander has long supported a two-state solution.

“It’s straightforward that some approach to more shared safety for Israelis and Palestinians and for Jews and Muslims and everybody else here makes more sense,” Lander said. “I also want to be able to listen across those divides and have thoughtful policy debates.”

Two weeks before Tuesday’s election, Israeli forces detained Lander in the occupied West Bank while he was volunteering to help with the olive harvest. Israeli authorities have since revoked his travel documents for a planned return visit.

“The main story I come home with is not the story of my detention or the revocation of my travel authorisation,” Lander said. “The main story that I come with is the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in the West Bank, which I just saw with my own eyes.”

Lander has also long called for ICE to be abolished, including during President Donald Trump’s first term in office.

Pro-Palestinian activism 

Avila Chevalier’s political rise was similarly shaped by immigration and Palestinian rights, though she has taken a more uncompromising approach.

After interning at a youth organisation in Nablus in the occupied West Bank in 2014, she returned to the US and became an advocate for Palestinian communities.

Her “Babies Not Bombs” platform calls for redirecting military spending, including aid to Israel, towards domestic priorities such as childcare and healthcare.

“It’s important for us to see our budgets as moral documents,” Avila Chevalier told Al Jazeera. “Our resources should be going towards the things that make our lives dignified and make our communities thrive – not towards war, not towards ICE or things that are harming our communities.”

Valdez, meanwhile, came to progressive politics through the labour movement. A former union-organiser-turned-state-assemblymember, she supports stronger labour protections, including federal legislation such as the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act to make union organising easier.

Valdez also backs national rent control and a government-run healthcare system to provide wider healthcare access than the country’s private-sector insurance model.

“Public programmes and entitlements have been under attack by the right,” Valdez told Al Jazeera as she exited a polling location in her district on the first day of early voting. “I think not just clawing those back but really advancing a vision for what those things should be will be top priorities.”

Abolishing ICE and ending military aid to Israel are lofty, ambitious goals, and neither is likely to be achieved without navigating competing interests in Congress and the White House. With the balance of congressional power potentially shifting towards Democrats in the midterms, the newcomers will have to decide which priorities to pursue first.

That means looking for more immediate wins comparable to Mamdani’s move to fill 200,000 potholes when he took office as mayor, according to progressive political strategist Nomiki Konst.

“[Get] on the same page about an issue that we all agree on and leverage that in the Democratic Congress because there’s no better time than the beginning,” Konst told Al Jazeera.

For Lander, one such measure is banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks.

“Maybe that restores a little bit of trust,” Lander said. “People say that’s gross that members of Congress trade stocks. At least this new Congress is doing something, you know, to show me they’re not just all in it for themselves.”

Lander also sees an opportunity to restore enhanced government subsidies that expired at the end of 2025, raising premiums for many people who buy their private-sector insurance plans individually.

“We can say we’re not going to pass a budget that doesn’t do that and force Republicans to vote one way or the other and see what Trump does,” Lander said.

For Avila Chevalier, an early priority would be her “Babies Not Bombs” agenda, redirecting funding towards domestic needs. Valdez wants to pass the PRO Act.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sets a precedent

The three would not be the first progressive New Yorkers to enter Congress promising major change.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won her legislative seat in 2018 by defeating longtime incumbent Joe Crowley. Since then, she has occasionally worked with Republicans on shared priorities.

In 2025, Ocasio-Cortez introduced legislation with Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna of Florida to cap credit card interest rates at 10 percent, echoing a proposal from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Republican Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri.

The question, Konst says, is whether Mamdani’s endorsed candidates can turn ideological commitments into legislative results. Doing so will require compromise, including setting aside some priorities to advance others.

Avila Chevalier is under the microscope after calling for New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch to resign over a man being shot in his car by ICE while his child was in the backseat. Avila Chevalier said she was later shoved to the ground by New York City police officers during protests following the shooting.

Mamdani reportedly appointed Tisch on the recommendation of Governor Kathy Hochul, whose support was important to Mamdani’s mayoral campaign. An Atlantic magazine report suggested that her endorsement of Mamdani, whose more progressive platform included universal childcare and government-operated grocery stores, hinged on Tisch’s appointment.

“Everybody wants to have their agenda passed, right? I think being really thoughtful about when to hold fire, when to fire, when to be bold, when to hold back, and when to say what you feel so you’ll get the most support,” Konst said.

But Avila Chevalier said she is willing to work with anyone to advance her priorities.

“There is always something that two people can agree on. And that’s where I plan on starting because I think organising is about meeting people where they’re at,” Avila Chevalier said.

“There are so many folks who really want to see healthcare transformed in this country, who really want to see a moratorium on data [centres]. That is a bipartisan issue for so many.”

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US midterms 2026: What polls reveal about Democratic, Republican voters | US Midterm Elections 2026 News

Americans will vote in the US midterm elections on Tuesday, with the economy, the cost of living, and immigration among the top issues. While Democrats and Republicans share concerns about the rising cost of living, recent surveys suggest differences in how they view the economy, President Donald Trump, and other key issues.

In an NBC poll released on Sunday, 75 percent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the state of the US economy, and 51 percent said they were dissatisfied with their personal financial situation.

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Other surveys conducted in October also offer a look into how voters from both parties felt about their finances and which issues mattered most.

Here is what we know:

What issues matter most to Democrats and Republicans?

The economy is the main concern for US voters, but Democrats and Republicans vary on the importance of issues like healthcare, immigration, and crime.

A Pew Research Centre survey, conducted between September 28 and October 4, suggested that 84 percent of registered voters considered the economy very important to their midterm vote. It was the top issue for 82 percent of respondents who prefer Republican candidates, and 88 percent for those who back Democrats.

However, the two groups differed on other issues.

About 85 percent of Democratic Party supporters considered the future of democracy very important, compared with 69 percent of Republicans. Healthcare was a priority for 82 percent of Democrats, compared with 53 percent of Republicans.

Republican supporters were more concerned about immigration, with 72 percent saying it was very important, compared with 53 percent of Democrats.

Violent crime was also more important to Republican supporters, at 64 percent, compared with 37 percent Democrats.

A KFF survey, conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation, an independent nonprofit, from September 16 to 21, suggested 42 percent of registered voter respondents trusted Democrats more to handle healthcare costs, compared with 22 percent who trusted Republicans.

On the cost of living, 39 percent trusted Democrats more, while 25 percent preferred Republicans.

What grade do Democrats and Republicans give Trump’s second term?

Views of President Trump and his economic policies remain divided along party lines.

In the Pew Research Centre survey, 91 percent of Democratic respondents and those who leaned Democratic believed Trump’s economic policies had made things worse.

Among Republican supporters, 39 percent said his policies had improved the economy, 35 percent said they made conditions worse, and 25 percent said they had little effect.

In the November 1 NBC News poll, 40 percent of registered-voter respondents approved of Trump’s overall job performance, compared with 60 percent who disapproved.

How do Democrats and Republicans feel about the economy?

Americans are concerned about rising costs, but Democrats are more likely than Republicans to express negative feelings about economic conditions.

In an October Pew Research survey, 36 percent of Republicans rated the US economy as excellent or good, compared with just 9 percent of Democrats or Democrat-leaning voters.

However, the majority in both groups expressed concern about the cost of essential goods and services.

According to PEW, 82 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners were concerned about food and consumer prices, compared with 62 percent of Republicans and Republican leaners.

Healthcare costs concerned 80 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans, while petrol and energy prices worried 81 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of Republicans.

A Fox News poll released on October 14 also had 74 percent of registered voter respondents rating the economy negatively, and 60 percent identified the cost of living as their biggest economic concern.

The November 1 NBC News poll found that 53 percent of Republican respondents were dissatisfied with the state of the economy.

The Pew Research Center also found that abortion and gun policy were less central to Democratic respondents in comparison with 2022. Among Republican voters, education policy and energy policy were less important than they were four years ago.

Are Americans satisfied with their financial situation?

In the NBC poll, 51 percent of registered voters were dissatisfied with their personal financial situation, compared with 49 percent who were satisfied.

It was the first time in 30 years of NBC polling that dissatisfaction with personal finances outweighed satisfaction.

In an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll on October 19-20, 38 percent of likely voters said their finances had gotten worse over the past year, 44 percent said they had remained about the same, and 15 percent said they had improved.

A total of 51 percent of Democratic likely voters said their finances had deteriorated, compared with 21 percent of Republicans.

In a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted from September 30 to October 5, 71 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans said their incomes had not kept pace with rising prices.

Eric Ham, a former Democratic congressional staffer and Senate national security adviser, said that Trump’s global tariffs and the US-Israel war on Iran had added to the financial pressure on American households.

“Americans are paying more not just in terms of self-inflicted wounds that President Donald Trump implemented through tariffs, but also if you look at this war of choice,” Ham told Al Jazeera.

Are Democrats or Republicans more enthusiastic about voting?

Democratic voters reported higher enthusiasm about participating in the elections.

In the Marist poll, 91 percent of likely Democratic voters were enthusiastic or very enthusiastic, compared with 86 percent of Republicans and 76 percent of Independents.

John Fury, a former Republican congressional staffer, said the final days of campaigning were focused on turnout.

“This is not a persuasion election. This is a get-out-the base election,” Fury said.

In a KFF survey, Democratic candidate supporters were 25 percentage points more likely than Republican supporters to describe themselves as “more motivated” than usual to vote (63 percent versus 38 percent).

The November 1 NBC News poll also reported high interest in the elections, with 70 percent of registered voters rating their interest at nine or 10 on a 10-point scale.

Who are Americans planning to vote for?

Surveys conducted in the final weeks before the election suggested voters preferred Democratic candidates or Democratic control of Congress over Republicans.

An NBC poll conducted on October 28-30 and published on November 1 suggested that 52 percent of registered voters preferred Democratic control of Congress compared with 45 percent who preferred Republican control.

Similarly, the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from October 22 to October 26 suggested that 53 percent of likely voters would vote for or lean towards the Democratic candidates in their district, compared with 44 percent who supported Republicans.

These surveys measure voting sentiment, but they do not reflect the results of the individual races.

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Student protests resume in France as pupils return to school | Protests

High school students in France resumed protests on a smaller scale as pupils returned from a two-week break. Dozens of schools were blockaded and students say they will continue to protest until their demands are met.

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What’s the future of the Western Sahara conflict? | Border Disputes

The United Nations ends its peacekeeping mission in the disputed territory.

It’s one of Africa’s longest-running conflicts.

The dispute over the territory of Western Sahara started more than 50 years ago. It began with the end of Spanish colonial rule in the region.

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Since then, both Morocco and the Polisario Front have claimed the Western Sahara.

In the 1990s, the United Nations tried to reach a settlement, and deployed a peacekeeping mission to the region.

Last week, that effort ended when Russia and the United States blocked proposals to extend the mission’s mandate.

So, could this development lead to renewed fighting?

Presenter: Imran Khan

Guests:

Samir Bennis – Political analyst and author of the book The Self-Determination Delusion: How Activist Scholars and Journalists Have Hijacked the Western Sahara Case

Irene Fernandez-Molina – Senior lecturer in International Relations at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom and author of the book Moroccan Foreign Policy under Mohammed VI, 1999-2014

Mahjoub Mleiha –  Advocacy head of Collective of Sahrawi Human Rights Defenders (CODESA)

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