Middle East

The first Israeli elections in four years have brought with them a record number of first-time voters – most of whom are keen to make their voices count.

But while youth around the world are leaning to the left, young adults in Israel are heading in the opposite direction, according to recent polls.

The Israeli Central Elections Committee says more than half a million voters were added to the roll since the last elections in 2022. They are aged between 18 and 22 and polls show that 80 percent of them plan to vote in the October 27 legislative election.

Although their political activism and engagement in the public sphere are limited, a survey by the think tank, Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), found that a majority of young Jewish Israelis feel that the ballot box can influence reality and shape their country’s future.

But what does the future they hope for look like?

Around three quarters of Jewish first-time voters polled identified as “right or centre-right”, according to a recent poll for Israel’s Channel 12. That’s significantly higher than the rest of the Israeli population, which has already been shifting to the right for years.

Now the title “Generation Right” is being used to reference Israel’s Jewish youth – though not the Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Mainstreaming far-right views

The first Israeli elections since the October 7, 2023 attack are contentious and polarising – and they will be decisive for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival and his right-wing approach.

Critics of the longest-serving PM in Israel’s history accuse him of supporting “far-right” politicians to stay in power. They say that his handing of key government positions to extreme politicians such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich helped empower those camps and make their policies mainstream.

In 2017, Smotrich laid out his position for the future of Israel where the Israelis are the only ones who will have self-determination, whereas Palestinians will have to emigrate, stay without political representation, or be treated as “terrorists” if they refuse either of the two options. In 2022 he secured a portfolio in the defence ministry where he facilitates land grabs and empowers the illegal settlement enterprise in the occupied West Bank.

Indeed, this incitement and view of Palestinians has become more prevalent.

A recent video published by the Israeli satirist Lior Schleien shows a young man saying he would kill Arabs in Israel.

Schleien, a left-wing activist, has been visiting schools and speaking with young people often before their army service. His videos are giving Israelis, and the world, a chance to understand the younger generation.

In the video, Schleien asks the student how he proposes to kill Arabs. The answer: “Give me a knife and I will do it.”

Schleien asks whether October 7 changed his views. “I’ve always been racist,” the young man answers, adding that Arabs shouldn’t be allowed to live in the state of Israel. Even though the young man’s face is slightly covered, shielding his identity, Schleien removed the video after a public backlash.

In another town hall meeting, Schleien addresses the question of whether there are innocent people in Gaza. When asked if Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza, Schleien denies it, only for a female student to ask, “Do you think it should be done?”

Schleien looks unimpressed, but the student assures him that she is asking a serious question. Her friend, next to her, chuckles.

Speaking the language of the youth

At a recent meeting of young supporters of the left-leaning Democrats party in Tel Aviv, 18-year-old Gili told the AFP news agency that she believed Israeli society had abandoned the idea of peace.

She said the scars of October 7 instilled fear among people, making it hard for them to believe peace could ever be achievable.

While the October 7 attack may have accelerated the country’s push to the right and far-right, many say Israeli society has been heading this way for years.

A survey by the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth shows more than 16 percent of new voters plan to cast their ballot for far-right parties.

From a large field in southern Israel, 18-year-old Amihai was wearing a shirt with far-right minister Ben-Gvir’s photo. The event he was attending called for the establishment of illegal Israeli settlements on Palestinian territory.

Talking to other young activists from a place overlooking the destroyed parts of the Gaza Strip, Amihai said he plans to vote for Otzma Yehudit, a party led by Ben-Gvir, who himself lives in an illegal settlement in the occupied West Bank.

Although Ben-Gvir did not pass the threshold of the 2020 elections, he was given a central position in the 2022 government of Netanyahu.

In the years since, the minister seems to have learned to speak the language of Israel’s youth. Despite having been convicted of supporting “terror” organisations as well as other criminal offences, Israeli surveys show that a chunk of his potential supporters in this election are first-time voters.

Ben-Gvir has also made sure to use his position to lobby for his “I am not mincing my words” policies.

As a minister, he often visits Israeli jails and detention centres to threaten Palestinian prisoners as well as international activists – all the while making sure that it is caught on camera.

His videos often go viral, a move that has earned him more youth support – and not just from his usual base of settlers, such as the violent “Hilltop Youth”, some of whose members have been sanctioned by the European Union and the United Kingdom.

The IDI survey found that social media and messaging apps such as WhatsApp and Telegram are key sources of information – often exposing young people to political content through their feeds rather than through active searching.

It is a language Ben-Gvir understands.

Tsuneyasu Miyamoto says it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to host next year’s tournament as scheduled.

The ongoing security situation in Saudi Arabia makes it difficult for the country to host football’s 2027 Asian Cup as scheduled, Japan Football Association President Tsuneyasu Miyamoto has warned.

Several major sporting events in Saudi Arabia have been cancelled or postponed amid escalating attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, raising doubts over whether the continental tournament can take place as planned from January 7 to February 5 next year.

“Based on what I’ve learned from the news, the situation is still unsafe, so at this point, I don’t think it would be easy to hold the [Asian] Cup there,” Miyamoto told reporters at the Asian Football Confederation’s (AFC) extraordinary congress in Tokyo.

“I just had a meeting with the Saudi side and they said that their top priority is the safety of the players, the fans, and everyone who would be attending the tournament.”

“They said they would work with the AFC to decide whether the tournament can go ahead, so they did mention that it would take some time (to make that decision).”

Asian football chief Salman bin Ibrahim Al-Khalifa said last week a postponement until 2028 remained a possibility if necessary, but the local organising committee (LOC) later said it was sticking to the original schedule.

“Preparations across all organisational and operational areas are progressing according to the approved schedule, including work on venues, facilities and supporting services,” the LOC had said in a statement last week.

“(The LOC) will continue to monitor developments relevant to the tournament and ensure the appropriate conditions are in place for its successful delivery.”

Earlier this month, golf’s Asian Tour postponed the Saudi International indefinitely and cycling’s Urban World Championships were cancelled following a deadly attack on Riyadh’s international airport, which killed at least 12 people and wounded more than 300.

Other events have also been disrupted. The Six Kings Slam exhibition tennis tournament in Riyadh was moved from October to December, while FIFA postponed the FIFAe Finals 2026 video game competition in Jeddah until an unspecified date.

The Saudi government has invested heavily in sport through its Public Investment Fund (PIF) in recent years and the Asian Cup was pitched as an early rehearsal for hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2034.

Oil prices have climbed towards their highest levels in five months as attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz mount and efforts to end the United States-Israel war on Iran are deadlocked.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than $2 to $110.85 a barrel on Wednesday, close to a five-month peak.

A day earlier, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two tankers were “set ablaze” after hitting mines at what it called an illegal crossing point in the strait. Then, on Thursday, the IRGC said it hit seven more tankers although Washington dismissed the claim. In a statement, the IRGC said four of the vessels were transferring oil when they were targeted and caught fire overnight.

In September, the Houthis, an armed group also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for Supporters of God), seized territory in Yemen close to the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical chokepoint into and out of the Red Sea and a gateway to Egypt’s Suez Canal.

The escalation came as the world’s emergency oil stocks, already tapped heavily since the Iran war began on February 28, sit at their lowest levels in decades.

Al Jazeera put a question to analysts: If fighting resumes in full, the Strait of Hormuz is shut off completely and Houthi attacks choke off Bab al-Mandeb, how long could the world’s reserves last?

Here’s what you need to know:

What emergency oil reserves are there?

Strategic oil reserves are stockpiles of crude oil and fuel held by governments or by companies on their behalf for use in a supply emergency.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which was established in 1974 after the Arab oil embargo, coordinates most of them. Its importing members must hold at least 90 days of net imports. China and India are not members.

How much of the reserves has already been released this year?

A record amount.

On March 11, days after the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, the IEA’s 32 members agreed to make 400 million barrels available from emergency supplies, more than double the volume released after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The US pledged 172.2 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and Japan 79.8 million, according to IEA figures.

The SPR has since fallen to 283 million barrels, its lowest level since October 1982, according to the US Department of Energy.

Much of that oil was lent rather than sold and must be returned with extra barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

How much oil is left?

Far less than before the war began in February, and not all of it can be used.

Aaron Kildow, a senior crude oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, told Al Jazeera that global strategic stocks excluding China and Iran have fallen by nearly 327 million barrels since the end of December 2025 with the US, Europe and Japan accounting for about 95 percent of the draw.

He estimated that leaves only about 400 million barrels of usable reserves worldwide, excluding China’s stockpile, which is unlikely to be exported, and Gulf stocks, which could be cut off by a total closure of Hormuz.

Nearly half of these available stocks are in Japan.

Europe has about 76 million barrels uncommitted, but members such as Germany are holding some back for a local emergency, Kildow said.

“Europe is the real wildcard, both on timing and willingness,” Kildow said.

Meanwhile, China’s onshore crude stocks stand at 1.13 billion barrels, down from 1.23 billion in late February but still enough for about 80 days of refinery intake, Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at the analytics firm Kpler, told Al Jazeera.

India’s reserves cover just eight days of its imports, the Reuters news agency reported.

What would a full closure of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb mean?

Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, or roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day, passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia has increased the amount of crude it transports from its oilfields in the east to its Red Sea port of Yanbu in the west via the East-West Pipeline, thereby bypassing Hormuz.

But there have been strikes on that pipeline, and tankers heading south from Yanbu must pass through Bab a-Mandeb, where the Iran-backed Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi shipping in July.

Only a confirmed 373,000 barrels a day of Saudi crude have transited Bab al-Mandeb so far this month, the lowest level since February, Xu said, with most Yanbu cargoes now heading north via Egypt instead.

If Hormuz were shut and the Houthis blocked all Saudi tankers, Gulf producers could export only through a few pipelines and Yanbu’s northbound route, Xu said.

That would leave about 7.5 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern crude, against 16.8 million now, a shortfall of about 9.3 million barrels a day, she estimated.

“If such attacks occur, the supply disruption could be even more severe and prolonged,” Xu said, referring to strikes on oilfields, terminals and pipelines.

So how long would reserves last?

Not for long – possibly just weeks, according to experts.

If Kpler’s estimated shortfall had to be covered entirely from the roughly 400 million usable barrels that Kildow identified, they could not, in practice, be released that fast. Japanese and South Korean reserves can move quickly, Kildow said, but US barrels are staged over three months, and Europe’s contribution is uncertain.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, said the world was fortunate after the first closure. “The salient feature of March and beyond was how a crisis didn’t actually develop. We got away with it,” he said.

“I don’t think the global economy will be as lucky next time if there is a protracted conflict,” Beauchamp said. “A month or two is all we have.”

The world would not literally run out of oil. Instead, prices would rise until enough demand disappeared. “One hundred fifty dollars [per barrel] becomes a very distinct possibility, which then sees significant demand destruction,” Beauchamp said.

The sharpest squeeze would be on diesel, which is already nearly double the price of crude, the IEA said.

Refiners would compete for crude grades rich in diesel, “a cost that ultimately lands on consumers,” Kildow said.

Who would feel it first?

Asian importers with thin reserves.

Most Gulf exports in September and October went to Asian buyers, and India and Pakistan are among the most exposed, Kildow said, adding that their nearest alternative supply, from West Africa, is 25 to 28 days away by sea, compared with two days from Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.

“The squeeze won’t hit uniformly. It lands fastest and hardest where reserves are thinnest and substitute supply is farthest away,” Kildow said.

Who would gain?

Oil producers far from the Gulf.

In the second quarter of this year, as the US-Iran war was under way, ExxonMobil reported earnings of $14.5bn, its highest in four years while Chevron posted $12bn, its best in six years and Shell more than doubled its earnings to nearly $10bn. Their profits are largely down to the high oil prices.

A second shock would send refiners scrambling for supplies from the US, Latin America, West Africa and Russia, Xu said.

“This would allow non-Middle Eastern producers to benefit from higher crude prices, potentially alongside lower transportation costs,” she said.

In August, US President Donald Trump said companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron were “making too much money based on a shortage”.

The head of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) says the body is endorsing Gianni Infantino for another term as FIFA president.

The AFC has 47 member confederations. Even if all the members do not follow Friday’s direction from Sheikh Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa, those that do could be key to guaranteeing another mandate for Infantino, who leads the governing body of world football and is seeking a fourth term.

The FIFA election is in March. The deadline for candidates to file against Infantino is November 18, and so far, none has filed.

Sheikh Salman, speaking at the AFC’s extraordinary congress in Tokyo on Friday, embraced Infantino with a large hug in front of the membership as he delivered his endorsement.

“We affirm our full commitment to supporting you and your leadership as you seek a new mandate as the FIFA president.” Sheikh Salman said.

“You’ve visited a lot of countries in Asia. I’ve spoken to a lot of members within this continent. I know your feeling, and I think your commitment is clear as well.”

Addressing his remarks to Infantino, Sheikh Salman indicated not every AFC member would go along with the endorsement but most will.

“My feeling is, I’m sure, the feeling of most of my members,” the AFC president said. “And I’ve said that to you.”

A sudden about-face by AFC

This is an abrupt turnaround for Sheikh Salman. Just over two months ago, the AFC joined the football governing bodies of Europe and that of North and Central America in saying Infantino had committed a “fundamental breach of trust”.

Infantino apologised last week in Zurich to FIFA’s 37-member ruling council, which he chairs, for “mistakes” he made in assembling a now-scrapped $4.2bn plan to sell a stake in FIFA events, including the World Cup, to private investors.

Sheikh Salman referenced the differences with Infantino in his speech but glossed over any details.

“Gianni, I want to make it clear: Yes, we had some issues we spoke about in the past,” Sheikh Salman said. “But let’s not relate the two things together. I think the last few days we met in Zurich, you made it clear that there’s a true understanding between us.”

“The past I’m sure is part of our history,” he added, “We’ve all, I’m sure, learned important lessons from it. What matters now is how we move forward together. I think everyone has questions, and I’m sure the answers will be available, whether to us in Asia or the rest of the world. ”

Infantino’s electioneering around the globe

FIFA’s media office has been promoting Infantino’s travels around the world, seeking votes in exchange for millions of more dollars in financial support for small and large football countries.

“Thank you for being here,” Sheikh Salman said to Infantino. “I know you have been everywhere. I don’t know how you can do it. But I’m sure that you set a record for being in almost every country.”

Sheikh Salman then joked that, perhaps, Infantino had a “clone”.

That drew a laugh. But the largest applause came at the end of his brief address when he again repeated his support for Infantino.

“As one Asian family, we are ready to move forward, united in your support, Gianni,” Sheikh Salman added. “I want to make that clear today.”

Infantino accepts AFC’s support

Infantino took the podium after Sheikh Salman and kept his remarks light. But he did acknowledge some errors.

“When you do many things, you do – hopefully, as we did, many good things – you do some mistakes as well,” Infantino said. “The important, however, is, as you said, to learn, to learn always from the experience, from the mistakes, to apologise, to move ahead, to come together, to unite, to build for our future, for your future.”

The largest applause came as he mentioned how, under his leadership, millions more are flowing to FIFA’s patronage network.

“Before I started as FIFA president, each of you – some of you are still [here] and still remember that time – each of you was receiving $1m every four years” Infantino said. “As of the first of January of next year, it will be $25m.”

Libya’s eastern parliament has walked back its objection to an agreement with Turkiye, demarcating boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea.

Its rival administration, the internationally recognised Government of National Unity, signed the deal seven years ago.

The ratification has revived a simmering dispute over exploring a potentially gas-rich region. Greece, Cyprus and Egypt were quick to object, with Athens referring the issue to the UN Security Council.

They say Libya and Turkiye are ignoring their sovereign rights.

So what are the geopolitical implications of this deal in the eastern Mediterranean?

Presenter: Mohammed Jamjoom

Guests:

Sinan Ulgen – Chairman of the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies

Maria Gavouneli – Professor of international law at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens

Tarek Megerisi – Director of Informmi, a geopolitical research and advisory firm

Israeli court releases nine settler suspects over West Bank attacks as investigations into recent assaults continue.

Israel has released nine of the 10 Israeli settler suspects arrested over attacks on a US journalist and European diplomats in the occupied West Bank, placing them under house arrest.

An Israeli court in Jerusalem ordered the release late on Wednesday, according to Honenu, a law firm that represents Israeli settlers.

Israeli police said one suspect remained in custody and that the investigation into the violent incidents was continuing.

Masked settlers were filmed last week assaulting Heidi Levine, a Washington Post photojournalist covering a Palestinian olive harvest who was taken to hospital and underwent surgery on a finger.

In a separate attack earlier this week, masked settlers assaulted French, Belgian and Polish diplomats and a French mayor in another part of the West Bank.

The suspects had been detained after the United States called for a crackdown on settler violence. France, Belgium and Poland also urged Israel to act.

“In the vast majority of attacks against Palestinians, no arrests are made at all,” said Yonatan Kanonich, head of research at the Israeli rights group Yesh Din. “In cases that receive media coverage … the police arrest several settlers and release most of them shortly afterward.”

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a post on X Thursday that the situation in the occupied Palestinian territory was “out of control”, with Palestinians continuing “to suffer daily attacks by Israeli settlers” and journalists and diplomats also being attacked.

Guterres called for “a credible political path towards lasting peace”.

Separately, the Palestinian Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission on Thursday said it documented 17 West Bank pogroms by Israeli forces and settlers against Palestinian farmers and their land during the olive harvest.

The commission recorded 409 attacks in October, 317 of which were by settlers and 92 by Israeli forces.

Nablus recorded the most attacks, 166, followed by Salfit with 91.

The commission said the attacks included assaults on farmers, preventing them from reaching their land, theft of crops and agricultural equipment, damage and burning of olive trees, as well as arrests, threats at gunpoint and live fire.

Ali Hassan Bazzari from Burqa died of wounds from settler gunfire while picking olives on October 7, the commission reported.

On Thursday, settlers set fire to olive trees near Imatin, east of Qalqilya, while Israeli forces forced farmers to leave and detained a farmer and several of his workers, the Palestinian news agency Wafa reported.

Near Yabad, west of Jenin, settlers stole 17 bags of harvested olives and equipment, local sources said.

Citing a local Palestinian official, Wafa reported that around Jenin, Israeli forces closed transport roads and most village gates, preventing farmers from reaching land in Barta’a.

On trade, investment and innovation, leaders will work toward conclusion of a Canada-Turkiye Free Trade Agreement.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have announced the launch of a Canada-Turkiye Strategic Partnership, backed by a three-year action plan.

“In an increasingly complex global security environment, rising geopolitical uncertainties, and evolving humanitarian challenges, a strong and resilient Canada-Turkiye partnership is essential, providing a foundation to mitigate shared threats and capitalise on new opportunities,” said a statement by the two leaders on Thursday.

This comes as Carney is on a two-day visit to Turkiye, seeking to forge a new partnership as Canada looks to reduce its dependence on the United States.

The partnership’s three-year action plan rests on four pillars: trade and investment; defence and security; energy; and ties between people, the statement said.

On trade, investment and innovation, the two leaders agreed to “work toward successful conclusion of a Canada-Turkiye Free Trade Agreement”, it said. They will also expand bilateral trade and investments in priority sectors including energy supply, defence production, aerospace, and Artificial Intelligence (AI).

On defence and security, the leaders “underlined their intent to deepen bilateral and multilateral cooperation”. They also agreed to “strengthen cooperation in support of peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic region and beyond including Ukraine, South Caucasus, and the Middle East, in particular Gaza”.

Meanwhile, energy ministers from both countries will work on areas such as LNG, nuclear energy and critical minerals.

‘Launching a new era’

Speaking to reporters in Ankara alongside Carney on Thursday, Erdogan said the two countries “hope to increase our trade volume, which currently stands at around $3 billion, to $5 billion initially and then to $10 billion through the steps we will take”.

He said the two sides had agreed to begin free trade agreement negotiations before the end of the year to boost trade and investment, adding that elevating Turkiye-Canada relations to the level of a strategic partnership would not be merely a symbolic step on paper.

“We have today overcome the disconnect that had persisted between Turkiye and Canada for many years. Now we are launching a new era between Turkiye and Canada,” he said.

Canadian and Turkish leaders will convene next month in Ankara for the first round of trade talks, the joint statement said.

Carney is on the first bilateral visit by a Canadian prime minister to Turkiye, although he travelled to Ankara in July to attend the NATO summit.

He was scheduled to meet with Erdogan and other officials before travelling to Istanbul for talks with Turkish business groups as the two countries seek to deepen trade ties.

The Canadian prime minister has sought to diversify partnerships and reduce reliance on the US amid an escalating trade war with President Donald Trump, marked by US tariffs on Canadian goods, retaliatory measures by Canada and statements questioning Canadian sovereignty.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says renewed attacks by the United States could prompt Tehran to invade neighbouring countries and hit bases used in US military operations as part of its new “offensive” strategy.

The warning on Wednesday came amid escalating attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, and uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end the nearly eight-month war.

“Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said.

Washington ordered some diplomatic personnel to leave Saudi Arabia amid attacks from Yemen’s Houthis while US President Donald Trump has signalled that a decision on the conflict could come soon.

According to media reports, the US and Israel are planning potential attacks on Iran in the coming weeks.

As negotiations seem stalled and both sides exchange threats, could the region be heading towards another military escalation?

What is Iran’s new doctrine?

The IRGC on Wednesday announced a shift towards an “offensive and asymmetrical” defence doctrine, threatening to invade countries that launch attacks against it.

Mohebi said Tehran would no longer limit its military operations to retaliatory strikes.

Mohebi stressed that Iran’s missile stockpile has increased 1.5 times since the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025. He did not provide specific figures.

“The quality of the missiles has improved significantly, and their range, destructive power and accuracy in hitting targets have increased,” the spokesman said.

Moreover, Mohebi said Iranian forces were in the “stage of preparing to unveil the ‘father of all bombs’. This is something new for the enemy.”

Meanwhile, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued unabated.

The IRGC’s navy said on Thursday that four vessels it accused of being involved in illegal oil transfers were struck and caught fire in the northern Gulf. Three other vessels hit mines west of the strait, it added.

Before the war, one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. While shipments through the strait are still below those levels, oil shipments from the region returned to pre-war levels last month as exporters found alternative ways to ship out their oil and gas, including using pipelines.

However, a flurry of recent attacks in the key waterway and the fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and its Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government, which has resulted in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, have once again sent oil prices surging. Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel on Thursday amid fears of further disruptions to regional energy supplies.

Why the shift?

Iran’s shift towards an offensive military doctrine reflects Tehran’s determination to make future US-Israeli attacks significantly more costly, according to analysts.

Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran was drawing lessons from the wars of 2025 and 2026 after its previous strategy of retaliation failed to prevent repeated attacks.

“Tehran now wants to establish a new equation: Any future attack on Iran will come at a much higher cost for the aggressors,” she told Al Jazeera.

Unable to match conventional US military capabilities, Iran is increasingly relying on asymmetric warfare, including missiles, drones and its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, Mortazavi explained.

She said Tehran was pursuing a broader strategy aimed at imposing military, economic and political costs on Washington, including potentially influencing the November 3 US midterm elections.

“Iran wants to teach Washington a lesson: Attacking Iran comes with a high price, one that can even cost elections,” Mortazavi said, referring to US surveys that are predicting electoral losses for Trump’s Republican Party.

She added that Iranian officials were closely monitoring the elections, believing the economic fallout from the war could damage the Republican Party’s prospects of retaining control of Congress.

“The long-term objective is to establish deterrence so that future American administrations think twice before daring to attack Iran again,” she said.

Political analyst Rami Khouri said the doctrine was also intended to ensure that the consequences of attacks extend to the US, Israel and regional countries supporting their military operations.

“That’s one part of the strategy, that the suffering and the damage have to be equal and reciprocal,” Khouri, nonresident senior fellow at the Arab Center, told Al Jazeera.

Khouri argued that Tehran was also seeking to challenge what it views as longstanding Western domination of the region.

“The Iranians are actually working to try to end the colonial period,” he said.

He added that Iran’s strategy could extend the economic consequences of conflict far beyond the Middle East, affecting energy supplies, transportation, insurance costs and shipments of essential goods.

“The pain is going to go way beyond just the Middle East and Israel and the US and will hurt people in other parts of the world,” Khouri said.

What has the US said about resuming the war?

Trump has offered conflicting signals about Washington’s next steps.

On Wednesday, he said the US was no longer negotiating with Tehran and suggested developments were imminent. “We are going to have something one way or the other that’ll happen fairly soon,” he told reporters.

He also said Washington could end the war immediately but wanted a lasting outcome. “It’ll end very soon. We could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time,” Trump said at a campaign rally in South Carolina.

Trump previously pledged not to attack Iran before the November 3 elections.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that reaching a peace agreement is extremely difficult and insisted that Iran must stop targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

In recent weeks, Iran’s enrichment of uranium has re-emerged as a point of contention.

Rubio has maintained that Washington will reject any agreement allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons, which require highly enriched uranium. “The United States will not support any deal that creates a pathway for Iran to ever have a nuclear weapon,” he said on Wednesday.

Tehran insisted its right to enrichment is guaranteed under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Iran has offered a seven-day plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington ending its blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.

Meanwhile, the US Department of State on Wednesday ordered nonemergency personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia after recent Houthi attacks.

The US embassy in Riyadh has warned of further attacks while American officials told the Reuters news agency that family members could be withdrawn from other Gulf missions.

State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott said departure orders for mission personnel across the Gulf have not been ordered, saying the current orders were for “employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Sunday his pledge to topple Iran’s government, saying it was key to preventing it from rebuilding its nuclear programme and the “axis of resistance”, further raising prospects of an escalation.

Netanyahu made the comments as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is locked in a tough battle to remain in power in Tuesday’s elections.

Is war imminent?

Analysts warned that renewed US-Israeli attacks on Iran are increasingly possible with both sides preparing for another confrontation despite the continued possibility of diplomacy.

“Another round of war seems to be approaching,” Mortazavi said.

“Both sides appear to be preparing for renewed confrontation while escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increase the risk of a wider conflict,” she said.

Mortazavi added that the elections in the next two weeks in the US and Israel could influence the timing of military action but warned that the current trajectory appeared to favour escalation over negotiations.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, on Wednesday said, “Everyone must know that any action against Iran comes at a cost.”

“If diplomacy can create this understanding, we prefer diplomacy, but if the war continues, Iran has the necessary means to sustain its response,” Rezaei said, according to the IRNA news agency.

Echoing Mortazavi, Khouri warned that another confrontation could be approaching although he said US threats might still be part of a negotiating strategy.

“I think imminent conflict is on the cards, but I don’t know if war is the right word to use,” Khouri told Al Jazeera.

He said renewed strikes could target Iran’s critical infrastructure, including electricity networks, transportation systems, bridges and essential services.

“We’re probably going to get some severe attacks on a few targets that will try to make life in Iran very difficult,” he said.

However, Khouri cautioned that Iran’s ability to withstand another major military offensive while inflicting comparable damage on its adversaries remained uncertain.

“It’s not clear if Iran has the ability to withstand major new assaults against it,” he said, while stressing that Tehran was unlikely to surrender to military pressure.

Libya’s eastern-based parliament has backed a 2019 maritime deal with Turkiye already signed by the North African nation’s internationally recognised government based in Tripoli to delimit maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea.

The vote on Tuesday came as Turkiye has been cultivating close ties in recent years with the eastern parliament, backed by renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar. Ankara had helped the Tripoli government, known as the Government of National Accord (GNA), push back an offensive in 2020 by Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) that aimed to capture Tripoli.

Egypt and the European Union have rejected the ratification of the maritime borders agreement, calling the deal “null and void”.

On Tuesday, the Tobruk-based House of Representatives voted unanimously to approve the agreement, reversing its 2020 rejection.

Israel also condemned the move while Greece, which said the agreement violates international law, briefed the United Nations Security Council.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan dismissed the criticism, calling the deal “entirely legitimate”.

So what is the deal, and why has it drawn such a backlash? Here’s what you need to know:

What is the deal?

It is a memorandum of understanding that draws a sea border between Turkiye and Libya across the eastern Mediterranean.

It was signed in Istanbul on November 27, 2019, by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Fayez al-Sarraj, then-prime minister of the UN-recognised government in Tripoli.

Within weeks, Turkiye sent drones and military advisers to help repel Haftar’s assault on Tripoli.

The deal allowed Ankara to claim large and potentially gas-rich areas of the eastern Mediterranean.

Why does Egypt oppose it?

Because Cairo says it cuts into Egyptian waters.

Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the agreement “constitutes a clear infringement upon Egypt’s sovereign rights within its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf”.

It said the ratification “carries no legal consequences for Egypt”.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has historically been one of Haftar’s strongest backers, but experts said their relations have cooled because Haftar allowed his territory to be used to funnel support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group, which is fighting Sudan’s military, the AFP news agency reported.

Cairo is also now a close security ally of Ankara, and in July, Egypt refrained from objecting to a maritime line drawn between Benghazi and Turkiye.

According to exclusive information Al Jazeera received in July, the rapprochement between Ankara and Haftar’s general command included agreements on developing military facilities and advanced surveillance systems.

The agreements also included training programmes in Turkiye for eastern Libyan officers with specialised Turkish defence companies participating in the projects.

Wolfgang Pusztai, a security policy analyst and former Austrian defence attache in Greece, told Al Jazeera that a possible Turkish military presence in eastern Libya was “probably more of a concern for Egypt”.

“This is not so much an issue for Greece, which has a Turkish military presence next door anyway,” he said, adding, “I doubt Cairo would accept this.”

Why does the EU oppose it?

Because two of its member states said it seeks to take their waters.

In a joint statement on Tuesday, European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the memorandum infringes on the sovereign rights of third states and does not comply with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

They reaffirmed the bloc’s solidarity with Greece and Cyprus.

Athens said the deal ignores Greek islands, including Crete, Rhodes and Karpathos, and therefore infringes on its maritime territory, according to a briefing document from the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Sotirios Zartaloudis, an associate professor in comparative European politics at the University of Birmingham, told Al Jazeera that Athens and Nicosia see the deal as a Turkish attempt to block the “crucial Great Sea Interconnector”.

The planned subsea power cable, which would link Greece’s grid to Cyprus and later Israel, has been delayed by a dispute between Athens and Ankara over waters off the Greek island of Crete, the Reuters news agency reported last year. The project is estimated to cost about $2.1bn.

Turkiye has not signed UNCLOS, which means Ankara is not bound by the treaty’s rules governing maritime boundaries.

On Wednesday, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged all countries to respect member states’ sovereign rights under EU and international law, including UNCLOS.

Zartaloudis said both countries had pushed for the EU to condemn the deal, but “so far expectations were not met”, and that “they will try to gain further support against the deal”.

He added that “the main actor in the region is the US”, which he said had not repudiated the agreement.

What does Turkiye say?

Ankara said the deal is lawful and already in force.

Turkiye’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the memorandum safeguards both countries’ rights on the basis of international law and “the principle of equity”.

“There are countries reacting to this. We know why they are reacting,” Fidan told state media.

“However, this is an entirely legitimate deal, both from a legal and a statutory perspective,” he said.

Why did eastern Libya change its mind?

Because Ankara has spent years courting it and its parliament has new leadership.

After Ankara struck a deal with Haftar’s LNA in July, the eastern parliament on October 6 elected Al-Salhin Abdelnabi al-Obeidi as speaker, replacing Aguila Saleh after more than 12 years.

Al-Obeidi previously chaired the Libyan-Turkish parliamentary friendship committee.

Anas El Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute, a Libyan think tank, told Al Jazeera that the turnaround in eastern Libya was about the route to the presidency under a US mediation plan for Saddam Haftar, Khalifa Haftar’s son and deputy commander.

“Turkiye is now the most consequential outside power in Libya with leverage over Tripoli and a military presence in the west, and he needs it to get there and to stay there,” El Gomati said.

“But a ratified treaty is hard to reverse, so Ankara gets something that looks permanent in return for support that, depending on how the Haftars use it, may not be,” El Gomati said.

Does the vote unite Libya’s rivals?

Not on the issues that divide them most.

Tripoli’s GNU welcomed Tuesday’s vote, meaning both of Libya’s rival centres of power now back the deal.

But El Gomati said the “unification was never about the sea”.

“It’s about who controls the budget, the army and the electoral commission, and this vote touches none of them,” he said.

What happens next?

Athens said it would take all appropriate measures to safeguard its sovereign rights.

El Gomati said implementation now depended on institutions such as Libya’s National Oil Corporation and he expected pressure “to be diplomatic and slow”.

Pusztai said the risk of naval incidents if Turkiye or Libya act on the deal at sea was “very high”.

He said it might also lead to the involvement of the EU naval mission enforcing the UN arms embargo on Libya since 2020.

In August 2020, months after the deal was signed with the GNU, Ankara sent the survey vessel Oruc Reis to explore for oil and gas in waters Greece claims, bringing the two NATO allies to the verge of military confrontation.

The United States ambassador to Turkiye and special presidential envoy for Syria and Iraq says Washington’s relationship with the countries in the Middle East needs to change.

Tom Barrack says the US no longer seeks to dominate the region.

He won’t say whether the war in Iran was a mistake – but acknowledges the instability it caused has led to unintended consequences.

Barrack says President Donald Trump is against what he calls “forever wars”, and ending the US-Israel war on Iran will require a major compromise. According to him, each side will have to accept conditions it does not like.

However, he is worried that growing tensions could lead to miscalculation.

Barrack says trust is lacking between Washington and Tehran, and that is hampering talks to agree on a deal.

He tells Al Jazeera that countries in the region should not depend on the US to solve their problems and that they need to look out for themselves. He insists the Trump administration has not abandoned the region, but is rather re-examining its role.

Barrack admits that years of US involvement in the region demonstrate that intervention and regime change do not work. He says it is time to put down the guns and resolve disputes through negotiations and mutual respect.

Taiz, Yemen – As Houthi fighters tighten their siege on the government-held southwestern Yemeni city of Taiz, women who initially organised food deliveries for soldiers defending the city have begun raising money to buy weapons and ammunition.

The initiatives have emerged spontaneously since the resumption of fighting in early September in the western countryside of Taiz governorate, between Saudi-backed forces of the internationally recognised government and the Iran-backed armed group.

At first, women volunteers came together to bake cookies for fighters on the front lines.

The aim was “to strengthen the relationship between the supportive social base and the members of the national army and pro-government popular resistance forces stationed at the front lines in defence of their besieged city, which is subjected to daily shelling in preparation for an invasion,” said Amira al-Saghir, an activist involved in the campaign.

The cookie-making initiative attracted widespread participation among women volunteers, drawing encouragement and support on social media. It coincided with a broader community campaign to supply fighters with food and other basic necessities, as well as weapons, with people contributing from districts and villages across the governorate.

In Yemen, a conservative country and the poorest in the Middle East, the vast majority of women do not participate in active fighting in the civil war, which began in 2014. Instead, these initiatives allow women to take part in what they see as the defence of their city against an invading force, and support for the men who are fighting.

After nearly four years of relative calm following a United Nations-brokered truce in April 2022, Houthi forces launched a major ground offensive in western Taiz in early September. The armed group rapidly captured territory along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the strategic port city of Mocha on September 10 , expanding its presence around Bab al-Mandeb strait, a vital shipping route.

The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, Arabic for Supporters of God, subsequently advanced towards other parts of Taiz governorate, taking control of key routes into the provincial capital and effectively surrounding the city. Government forces have since launched counteroffensives, with control of some areas remaining contested.

The renewed siege has severely restricted the movement of people and essential supplies into the city, triggering shortages of food, fuel, and medicine.

From cookies to weapons

As the fighting intensified, the women’s initiatives expanded. What began with baking cookies and organising food convoys to supply arms kitchens gradually evolved into efforts to buy ammunition for fighters.

Women involved in the initiatives told Al Jazeera that they felt they had been “forced” to act because of the risk of their city falling to the Houthis.

The change began as more rural districts began falling to the Houthis, leading to some donors making their contributions conditional on part of the money being used to buy ammunition for fighters.

Al-Saghir believes the shift was encouraged by information and criticism circulating on social media suggesting that government fighters in Taiz lacked sufficient ammunition to continue defending the city and surrounding front lines.

The initiatives soon took off, encouraging more women to get involved. Among them was Huriya Wabel, a humanitarian activist.

“After we saw that those [Houthi] militias … are waging a war of extermination against our city, we felt that we had to take a serious stand to support the army, not just with food and clothing, but with weapons as well, especially since a siege has been imposed on Taiz and supplies can no longer reach it easily,” Wabel told Al Jazeera.

“We also found many civilians who wanted to participate in the fighting alongside the army in defence of the city, but they did not have weapons,” she added. “So it became incumbent upon us to help by focusing more of our activities on this aspect at this stage.”

Defending their city

For Khadija al-Majidi, the move from providing humanitarian supplies to delivering military equipment is a response to the growing threat facing Taiz.

“When the enemy reaches the gates of your city and imposes a complete siege on it in preparation for storming it by force, and everyone in it – including you, your children, and members of your family – is threatened with being killed, captured, or displaced … then what do you expect from us?” the activist told Al Jazeera. “Did you expect us to carry flowers for the criminal who came from the farthest reaches of the country to destroy our city and kill us?”

When Al Jazeera spoke to al-Majidi, she had just returned from the fighting around Jabal Sabir, the mountain overlooking Taiz from the south.

It was al-Majidi’s second trip to the front that day, delivering ammunition and other military supplies, which she valued at $3,000, to the commander on the front, along with winter clothing, shoes, food, and other necessities.

She said that after more than 10 years of living through Yemen’s devastating war, she no longer felt afraid to visit active battlefronts.

“Repeated visits to the front lines play a major role in removing fears, given what we see on the ground of the heroes’ courage and bravery in defending the city and their confidence in victory,” she added.

As fundraising expands, the women’s department of Taiz’s Supreme Council for Popular Resistance launched a campaign on October 8 , aiming to equip 10,000 pro-government fighters with rifles and ammunition.

The council has called for contributions from Yemenis across the country and abroad to support the initiative.

The campaign reflects the state of the fighting in Taiz, with government forces facing daily Houthi attacks, as they try to conduct their own counter-attacks.

But the longer the siege continues, the more difficult the military and humanitarian situation becomes in the city.

Al-Saghir and al-Majidi both explained that while many of the donations they receive come from Yemenis living abroad, people on the ground are also giving whatever they can, despite the humanitarian crisis in Taiz.

Al-Saghir said one woman whose husband was fighting in the army donated a wedding ring, while al-Majidi recounted stories of other women donating their gold jewellery.

Al-Majidi recalled a woman arriving at her home carrying envelopes containing Yemeni and Saudi currency.

The woman had written on the envelopes, “God willing, we will win. Buy ammunition for the heroes with this.”

All injured individuals were immediately transported to hospitals, civil aviation says updates to come.

One person has been killed and eight injured in an attack on Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd International Airport in the eastern city of Dammam, the country’s civil aviation authority announced.

All of the wounded, whose injuries range from minor to critical, were transported to hospitals to receive medical attention, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) said in a statement on Wednesday.

Earlier in the day, two people were killed after Saudi air defences intercepted a drone that was attempting to hit a facility at Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield, the Ministry of Energy said.

It was the latest in a series of assaults on Saudi airports as conflict intensifies between Houthi forces and the Saudi-backed internationally recognised Yemeni government.

Last week, the kingdom reported that a projectile strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on October 11 killed one person and injured 11. On October 10, the civil aviation authority reported that a separate attack on the same airport claimed the lives of 12 people and injured more than 300.

On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered diplomats and family members to depart from its missions in Saudi Arabia amid the ongoing Houthi attacks. There are also plans to withdraw family members from a number of other US missions in the region, US officials told Reuters.

The US embassy in Riyadh issued a security alert on Wednesday about possible further attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia.