Israel

Beirut, Lebanon – It is four weeks into the United States-Israeli war on Iran, and millions of civilians are suffering in Lebanon, now facing a second large-scale Israeli attack on their country in less than two years.

About a quarter of Lebanon’s population has been displaced after Israel’s mass forced evacuation orders from the country’s south and Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh.

Many of the displaced are extremely frustrated and fatigued. And even those who are not displaced are feeling the pressure, with deadly Israeli attacks continuing, petrol prices increasing, business in general slowing down, and little sign that the conflict will end any time soon.

Samiha, a Palestinian teacher who had been living near Tyre, in southern Lebanon, but recently relocated to Beirut, said the experience was “not good at all”. However, with the previous Israeli campaign in Lebanon not long ago, her family came into this round more prepared.

“It’s not the first time for us. Now we know more about where to go.” Still, she maintained, “we don’t know how long this will last and if there is a solution”.

Foreigners most vulnerable

Israel intensified its war on Lebanon again on March 2, after Hezbollah responded to Israeli attacks for the first time in more than a year.

Hezbollah – a close ally of Iran – claimed the attack was retaliation for Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination two days earlier. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah had ostensibly been in effect since November 27, 2024, despite the United Nations counting more than 10,000 Israeli ceasefire violations in that period, and hundreds of Lebanese deaths.

After Hezbollah’s reply, Israel intensified its attacks on the south and declared its intention to occupy southern Lebanon. Israel also issued forced evacuation orders for areas of southern Lebanon, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and a few villages in the eastern Bekaa Valley, leading to a massive displacement crisis of at least 1.2 million people, according to the Lebanese government. Now, Israel has also stated its intent to occupy southern Lebanon and set up a so-called security zone, while destroying more villages along the southern border.

The crisis has hit people who live in Lebanon severely, particularly the country’s most vulnerable people.

“The most vulnerable cases that we’re coming upon are happening, either migrant workers, either Syrians, foreign bodies, basically,” Rena Ayoubi, a volunteer who has organised aid near Beirut’s waterfront, Biel, told Al Jazeera.

She said other people who have suffered deeply in this period include: people with chronic diseases, cancer patients on dialysis, people who cannot access insulin, and displaced people who don’t have access to a fridge to store their medicine.

‘Different in scale and speed’

A series of catastrophes is unfolding, with women, children and those suffering with psychological issues suffering the most, according to a variety of sources, including aid workers, volunteers and UN workers. The humanitarian crisis in 2024 was severe, they said, but 2026 is on a whole different level.

“Now is significantly different in the scale and speed and number of people impacted,” Anandita Philipose, the UN sexual and reproductive health agency (UNFPA)’s representative in Lebanon, told Al Jazeera. “The mass evacuation orders are new. The scale of displacement is new. The fact that civilian infrastructure was targeted is new.”

Many women, in particular, have been displaced not only from their homes but from their healthcare networks, including offices or support systems that will help them through pregnancies.

“Pregnant women do not stop giving birth in the middle of conflict, and women don’t stop having periods in the middle of conflicts,” Philipose said.

Israel’s latest war on Lebanon has so far killed 1,094 people and wounded another 3,119 in Lebanon, according to the country’s Ministry of Public Health. Among the dead are 81 women and 121 children, in just over three weeks.

“Children have yet again been caught up in this escalation, Heidi Diedrich, national director of World Vision in Lebanon, told Al Jazeera. “Children are deeply affected by the violence regardless of their protected status as civilians under international humanitarian law, and regardless of their rights as children. We are deeply concerned that this escalation will continue to impact children in Lebanon for weeks or even months to come.”

Never-ending trauma

At an office building in Beirut, two volunteers sit behind desks waiting for phones to ring. The volunteers are closely monitored by clinical psychologists. On the other end are people calling in for help, many in some of their darkest moments.

This is the office for the National Lifeline in Lebanon (1564) for Emotional Support and Suicide Prevention Hotline, a collaboration between the National Mental Health Programme and Embrace, a nonprofit focused on mental health. 1564 is the phone number that people who require psychological support can dial.

“We’ve been in the worst situation for the past two years,” Jad Chamoun, operations manager at the National Lifeline 1564, told Al Jazeera from the Lifeline centre in Beirut.

“Even when there was a ceasefire, people were still living under the conditions, they were still displaced.”

Even before March 2, about 64,000 people in Lebanon were displaced, according to the International Organization for Migration. According to a March 2025 report from Lebanon’s National Mental Health Programme, three in five people in the country “currently screen positive for depression, anxiety, or PTSD”. And that was before the current intensification.

“The living conditions we’re in is a continuous trauma, because it’s never ending,” Chamoun said. Lebanon went through one of the world’s worst economic crises in 2019, which continues today. In the following years, people in Lebanon experienced the COVID-19 pandemic, the Beirut explosion, mass emigration, and now two Israeli large-scale military campaigns in short succession.

Amid the current violence, the number of calls has increased substantially, Chamoun said, from about 30 a day during 2024’s Israeli attacks to almost 50 a day now. But, he added, that the peak for calls tends to be a few months after the end of a conflict or crisis. Currently, people are in survival mode.

The cascading series of disasters and brutal Israeli aggression has left many in Lebanon near, or well past, their breaking points. Many are falling through the cracks. Volunteers and professionals at efforts like this one are doing what they can to catch as many people as they can.

“We try to sit with them in the darkness, which is what’s heavy around us. We try to share with them this pain,” Chamoun said. “And this is what’s been the heaviest nowadays.”

Iranian rescue workers have been pulling survivors and bodies out of a residential building in south Tehran after a US-Israeli missile strike. Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi was at the scene.

Tehran, Iran – Heavily armed state forces continue to control Iran’s streets, despite the United States and Israel launching more strikes and preparing for a potential ground attack, as the nearly one-month war proceeds with no clear end point on the horizon

Checkpoints, roadblocks and patrols, some manned by masked forces wielding assault rifles and machine guns mounted on pick-up trucks, have become a common sight in Tehran.

Many of the checkpoints, operated by the paramilitary Basij force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), police or plainclothes forces, have been targeted by deadly drone strikes over the past two weeks. They are, therefore, often on the move, or positioned on highways, in tunnels, and under bridges.

“I counted 40 cars moving through my neighbourhood late last night while honking, flashing their blinkers, waving flags and escorting a pick-up truck that had massive speakers fitted at the back and somebody shouting religious slogans from inside,” a resident of western Tehran told Al Jazeera on Friday, asking to remain anonymous for security reasons.

He said local residents have been invited from the loudspeakers on multiple occasions to join gatherings at the neighbourhood’s mosque to denounce the US and Israel and express support for the theocratic establishment that has been in power since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution.

Such state-backed gatherings are taking place in numerous mosques, as well as city squares and streets. But they come as the US and Israel urge Iranians to stay in their homes and wait for a “clear signal” to take to the streets and overthrow the Islamic Republic.

For their part, Iranian state television and other state-affiliated media outlets have encouraged supporters to maintain control on the streets, and have been increasingly releasing footage of armed pro-state people, including women, carrying guns.

Rahim Nadali, the IRGC’s deputy for cultural affairs in Tehran, claimed on state television on Wednesday night that people of all ages have expressed readiness to join intelligence and security patrols and checkpoints.

“We have brought the age limit [down] to over 12 years. So now, children aged 12 or 13 years are going to participate in this space,” he said.

‘Sinking feeling in your gut’

A series of new air raids landed across Iran on Friday afternoon, hitting a civilian nuclear site, as well as power posts and production lines for steel and other industrial factories, according to Iranian authorities.

Washington has also deployed thousands more soldiers to the region while signalling that an attempt to occupy one or more islands on Iran’s southern shores may be imminent.

Iranian officials have promised to retaliate strongly if that happens, including by striking critical infrastructure across the region.

Javad Mogoei, a prominent IRGC-linked media personality, released a video from the island of Qeshm earlier this week, suggesting that the IRGC could launch missiles and drones at Iranian islands if they were occupied by the US.

Despite that potential for even further escalation, and while numerous areas in Tehran have been struck by bombs dropped from Israeli and US warplanes, the city continues to function as people try to practise a semblance of a normal life.

Some people visit friends and loved ones indoors, while others go on daytime walks to hold a routine or work out at gyms that are open for limited hours.

“It looks like the war will last for weeks, if not months, so we can’t afford to get drowned in all the anxieties and fears that come with it,” said another resident of the capital, who had sought safety in one of Iran’s northern provinces earlier in the war, but returned last week.

“But you still can’t help but get that sinking feeling in your gut for a moment, not knowing whether you will be next when you hear the jets flying over,” he said.

Another resident, a woman who lives in the more affluent northern areas of Tehran where multiple senior officials have been assassinated in residential buildings since the start of the war, said she finds herself worried.

“My mind sometimes automatically goes back to the concern that some official might be living in an adjacent alley or a nearby home, and my family could become collateral,” she said, adding that she has only been outside her home three times over the past month to buy essentials or visit immediate family.

Iranian authorities have said nearly 2,000 people have been killed since February 28 by US and Israeli attacks, and a large number of residential units, hospitals, schools and civilian vehicles have been affected.

Economy under strain

More businesses are expected to reopen when the country’s official working week starts on Saturday, following the holidays for Nowruz, the Persian New Year.

But the internet has been completely blocked to the civilian population for nearly a month, the longest recorded shutdown in Iran. The internet shutdown has tormented the country’s more than 90 million population and further squeezed an economy plagued by an inflation rate of about 70 percent.

State media released footage of President Masoud Pezeshkian personally visiting a hypermarket in Tehran on Friday to make sure that all essential goods are available to the population, and ensure that vendors refrain from jacking up prices or engaging in hoarding.

The government also continues to hand out a small cash subsidy, which it began doing after nationwide protests initially driven by the country’s economic situation in January.

The United Nations and international human rights groups say many thousands of protesters were killed by state forces, mostly on the nights of January 8 and 9, amid another total internet shutdown, but the Iranian government blames “terrorists” and “rioters” backed by the US and Israel for the unrest.

Iranian authorities have warned that anyone who takes to the streets to protest the establishment during the ongoing war will be treated as an “enemy”. They have also announced multiple war and protest-related executions, many hundreds of arrests over security charges, and confiscation of assets belonging to Iranians found to be dissidents inside or outside the country.

Iran’s judiciary announced asset seizures on Thursday for Ali Sharifi Zarchi, a former professor of bioinformatics and artificial intelligence at Iran’s top institution of higher education, the Sharif University of Technology.

He was found by authorities to have “transformed into an anti-Iran element and supporter of the Zionist regime”, in reference to Israel, due to his tweets and interviews in recent months in opposition to the Islamic Republic while based outside the country.

“The modest belongings you confiscated were the result of 25 years of teaching adolescents and young people, and of striving for Iran. They are a small sacrifice for even a single smile from the families of the children and youths whom you unjustly massacred” during nationwide protests in January 2026, late 2022 and early 2023, and November 2019, Sharifi Zarchi said in a post on X in response.

Growing opposition within Israel is raising questions about the government’s military strategy in southern Lebanon. As Al Jazeera’s Nida Ibrahim reports, many warn of an open-ended conflict as Hezbollah remains a strong force on the ground.

Iranian football players laid backpacks on a football pitch in Turkey to pay tribute to the children killed in a US-Israeli strike on Minab elementary school last month. The tribute came ahead of a friendly match against Nigeria.

It diversified energy supplies, built LNG terminals and reduced its dependence on Russia.

Europe thought it had learned its lesson after the war in Ukraine.
But today it’s facing another energy shock.

And this time it may be even worse, as the war in Iran disrupts supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

It’s happening when EU gas reserves are unusually low.

That means Europe will be competing with Asia to fill its storage tanks, which might force the price of LNG even higher.

Electricity bills are climbing.

Industry is under pressure.

Governments are stepping in to cushion the blow.

Displaced Lebanese families ‘living in constant fear’ under Israeli bombardment, warns UN Refugee Agency official.

Lebanon faces the threat of a “humanitarian catastrophe”, the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has warned, as Israel expands its weeks-long bombardment and ground invasion of the country.

UNHCR’s Lebanon representative Karolina Lindholm Billing said on Friday that Israeli strikes and forced displacement orders have affected people living across the country – from southern Lebanon to the Bekaa Valley, the capital Beirut, and further north.

More than 1.2 million people have been forced from their homes since Israel’s intensified attacks against its northern neighbour began in early March, according to UN figures.

“The situation remains extremely worrying and the risk of a humanitarian catastrophe … is real,” Lindholm Billing told reporters during a briefing in Geneva.

She noted that, as displacement numbers continue to rise, Lebanon’s already overstretched shelter system is struggling to meet families’ needs.

“Just last week, there were strikes that hit central Beirut, including in densely populated neighbourhoods … where many people had tried to find safety in collective shelters,” Lindholm Billing said.

“The families are … living in constant fear, and the psychological toll, particularly on children, will last far beyond this current escalation.”

Israel launched intensified attacks across Lebanon after Hezbollah fired rockets towards Israeli territory following the February 28 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the US-Israel war on Iran.

The Israeli military has carried out aerial and ground attacks across the country while issuing mass forced displacement orders for residents of the country’s south, as well as several suburbs of Beirut.

On Friday afternoon, the Israeli military said it had begun a wave of air strikes on Beirut. It also issued more forced displacement orders for several areas in the city’s southern suburbs, including the neighbourhoods of Haret Hreik and Burj al-Barajneh.

Hezbollah has continued to fire rockets into northern Israel and confront Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, with leader Naim Qassem stressing this week that the group had no plans to stop fighting “an enemy that occupies land and continues daily aggression”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also announced plans to expand the country’s ground invasion in southern Lebanon, saying the military would create “a larger buffer zone” in Lebanese territory.

Rights groups have condemned the expanded operation and warned that preventing Lebanese civilians from returning to their homes in the south may amount to the war crime of forced displacement.

“Israel’s tactics of mass expulsion in Lebanon raise serious risks of forced displacement,” Human Rights Watch said on Thursday. “Forced displacement and collective punishment are war crimes.”

The Israeli military’s destruction of civilian homes and several bridges linking southern Lebanon to the rest of the country has also fuelled concerns that Israel is trying to isolate the area.

During Friday’s news briefing, UNHCR’s Lindholm Billing noted that the destruction of the bridges has made accessing southern Lebanon “increasingly difficult”.

“The destruction of key bridges in the south has cut off entire districts … isolating over 150,000 people and severely limiting humanitarian access with essential items to reach them,” she said.

Reporting from Tyre in southern Lebanon on Friday afternoon, Al Jazeera’s Obaida Hitto also stressed that Israel’s forced evacuation orders are “causing a lot of panic” among residents.

“Evacuation orders are happening in areas that were previously thought to be safe,” he said, adding that the destruction and damage to bridges over the Litani River in the south has made the prospect of finding safety more difficult.

“This is putting the government in Beirut in a very difficult situation to try and respond to the humanitarian crisis quickly growing in the south of the country,” Hitto said.

Israel’s Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir issued a stark warning to the country’s cabinet this week: unless urgent measures are taken, the Israeli army is on the brink of collapse.

According to a report by Israel’s Channel 13 on Thursday, Zamir told ministers that he was “raising 10 red flags”, urging the government to move quickly on long-delayed legislation to alleviate the strain on its “exhausted” military.

The army has been overseeing what rights groups and the United Nations have determined is a genocide in Gaza, the de facto annexation of the occupied West Bank and numerous incursions into Lebanon and Syria.

Addressing ministers, Zamir stressed the need for a “conscription law, a reserve duty law, and a law to extend mandatory service”, adding that without these measures, “before long, the [Israeli military] will not be ready for its routine missions and the reserve system will not last”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has since said that plans will be made to extend mandatory military service. However, this is not the first time the alarm has been raised that the military is straining under the pressure of repeated operations, which have seen it involved in the killings of tens of thousands of civilians across the Middle East.

The first came as early as June 2024, just eight months into the genocidal war on Gaza, when France24 reported on shortfalls in troop numbers, exhaustion and a lack of supplies.

That situation has only worsened since.

So, how large was the army before October 2023, how active has it been and how has the current era of unprecedented regional aggression sapped the military’s reserves? Here is what we know.

How suited is the Israeli army to its country’s forever wars?

Not very.

Launched in 1948, the idea of an Israeli military made up of a relatively small standing army backed by a large reserve corps of mobilised citizenry was the plan from the outset in order to instil a narrative of social cohesion, national identity and shared responsibility within the new country’s populace. Reservists would move between civilian life and military service to achieve this.

Before the war on Gaza began on October 7, 2023, Israel’s standing army numbered just 100,000. This was immediately bolstered by calling up 300,000 reservists, pulling Israel’s “citizen soldiers” from their jobs and families to take part in the bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza in response to the Hamas-led assault on southern Israel.

Ultimately, this means that the majority of troops serving are reservists rather than career soldiers.

Where are Israeli troops now?

On March 1, the day after US-Israeli strikes on Iran began, Israel announced the mobilisation of another 100,000 reserve soldiers.

That was in addition to 50,000 reservists currently on duty as a result of the Gaza war.

At the time, military sources said the additional troops would bolster existing positions along the border with Lebanon, its frontier and occupied positions within Syria, as well as in the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank.

Additionally, Israel’s Home Front Command called up 20,000 reservists, primarily for search and rescue operations, with reinforcements also deployed to the Israeli Air Force, Navy and Intelligence Directorate.

Israel has since deployed “thousands” of those troops to take part in its invasion of southern Lebanon, which it resumed in response to rocket fire from Iranian ally Hezbollah on March 3.

Addressing the same security cabinet meeting as Zamir, Central Command chief Major General Avi Bluth told ministers that government policies in the occupied West Bank were also placing increasing pressure on the military’s already stretched manpower.

According to the report, Bluth told ministers that over the past year, the government has approved the construction of multiple illegal settlements in the Jordan Valley and elsewhere in the West Bank as part of a wider operation characterised by rights groups and more than 20 countries as Israel’s “effective annexation” of the occupied Palestinian territory.

Bluth added: “This is your policy, but it requires security and a full protection package, because the reality on the ground has completely changed – and that requires manpower.”

Are Israeli troops exhausted?

According to many of the army’s own members, particularly reservists, they are.

Speaking to the Ynet News outlet, which is typically supportive of Netanyahu and his ruling Likud party, one reservist told the newspaper in December of his decision not to report for duty.

“We have battles to fight at home,” he said, explaining his decision. “There are guys on the team who were fired from their jobs, others whose families are barely staying afloat, or who have been dragging out their studies for a very long time. This is a problem, a complexity that is hard to describe.”

Resentment of the apparent exemption offered to members of Israel’s ultra-religious Haredim community, whose refusal to enlist for service is often overlooked by politicians, is also growing, Israeli media reports.

Responding to Zamir’s comments to the security cabinet, Israel’s opposition leader, Yair Lapid, took to Twitter to address the government directly.

“The government must stop the cowardice, immediately halt all budgets to the Haredi draft dodgers,” he said of the extensive social benefits many in Israel’s ultra religious community rely upon. “Send the military police after the deserters, draft the Haredim without hesitation,” he said.

“The warning has been given. It’s on your heads. It’s in your hands. You cannot continue to abandon Israel’s security, in wartime, for petty politics.”

As the United States-Israeli war on Iran enters its fourth week this weekend, pressure on oil and gas markets continues to mount due to severe disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as well as attacks on and around key energy facilities in the Gulf.

In peacetime, 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped from producers in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz – the only route to the open ocean – including 20 million barrels of oil per day.

To bridge the shortage its closure has caused, countries in the Middle East are exploring alternative routes to get energy exports out.

In this explainer, we look at three major pipelines in the Middle East that producers may be pinning their hopes on, and whether they can fill the gap.

What has happened in the Strait of Hormuz?

On March 2 – two days after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran – Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the strait was “closed”. If any vessels tried to pass through, he said, the IRGC and the navy would “set those ships ablaze”. Since then, traffic through the strait has plunged by more than 95 percent.

Iranian officials have most recently stated that the strait is not completely closed – except to ships belonging to the US, Israel and those who collaborate with them – but have also laid down new ground rules. Any vessel must secure Tehran’s approval to transit through the narrow waterway.

As a result, over the past fortnight, countries have been scrambling to do deals with Iran to secure safe passage and a few, mostly Indian, Pakistani and Chinese-flagged tankers have been allowed to pass.

On Thursday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim thanked Tehran for granting Malaysian vessels “early clearance” through the strait.

Meanwhile, about 2,000 ships flying the flags of other nations are stuck on either side of the strait.

Which oil pipelines could serve as alternate routes?

The only alternative to shipping oil is piping it across land or under the sea. Three oil pipelines could work as ways around the Strait of Hormuz, including:

Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline

The East-West pipeline is also known as the Petroline and is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco. Aramco is one of the world’s largest companies, with a market capitalisation exceeding $1.7 trillion and annual revenues of $480bn. The oil giant controls 12 percent of global oil production, with a capacity of more than 12 million bpd.

It is a 1,200km (745-mile) pipeline which runs from the Abqaiq oil processing centre close to the Gulf in Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, on the other side of the country.

However, the pipeline does not have the capacity to fully make up for the Hormuz closure.

In 2024, about 20 million barrels per day (bpd) passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from the United Nations. Crude oil and condensate made up 14 million bpd of this, while petroleum was the remaining 6 million bpd.

The East-West pipeline has the capacity of transporting up to 7 million bpd. On March 10, Aramco said about 5 million bpd could be made available for exports, while the rest could supply local refineries.

Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February, Saudi Arabia has ramped up its oil flow through this pipeline. In January and February, an average of 770,000 bpd flowed through the pipeline, according to data from Kpler, a data and analytics company. By Tuesday this week, this had increased to an average of 2.9 million bpd.

However, using the Saudi pipeline still carries a risk.

The Houthis, an Iran-backed Yemeni armed group whose attacks on ships in the Red Sea caused global shipping chaos during Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza from 2023 to 2025, could target the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean beyond.

An unnamed Houthi leader told the Reuters news agency that the Houthis remain ready to attack the Red Sea again in solidarity with Tehran, the agency reported on Thursday.

“We stand fully militarily ready with all options. As for other details having to do with determining zero hour they are left to leadership and we are monitoring and following up with the developments and will know when is the suitable time to move,” the Houthi leader said.

The Bab al-Mandeb is the southern outlet of the Red Sea, situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast.

It is one of the world’s most important routes for global seaborne commodity shipments, particularly crude oil and fuel from the Gulf bound for the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.

The Bab al-Mandeb is 29km (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for inbound and outbound shipments.

Iran could open a new front in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if attacks are carried out on Iranian territory or its islands, Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim cited an unnamed Iranian military source as saying on Wednesday.

UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline is also called the ADCOP or the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.

The 380km pipeline runs from Habshan, an oil and gasfield in the southwestern area of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

The pipeline, which became operational in 2012, has a capacity of about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). It is unclear how much is now being transported through the pipeline.

However, oil exports from Fujairah do appear to have risen in the past month despite the closure of the strait, averaging 1.62 million bpd in March compared with 1.17 million bpd in February, according to Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball, who spoke to Reuters.

Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline

The Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, links Iraq to the Mediterranean coast of Turkiye.

The pipeline, which has the capacity of 1.6 million bpd, currently carries about 200,000bpd.

Iraq is among the top five global producers of oil and is the second largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), exceeding 4 million bpd.

Can these pipelines replace the Strait of Hormuz?

No. While these pipelines can take on some of the capacity of Hormuz, their combined capacity is only about 9 million bpd, compared with about 20 million bpd for the strait.

Additionally, these pipelines are land-based and within the range of Iranian missiles and drones, which makes them just as vulnerable to attacks and damage in the ongoing conflict as ships travelling through the strait. Throughout the war, energy infrastructure all over the Gulf has suffered strikes.

Are there other options?

Theoretically, oil can be transported on trucks, but this is costly, slow and inefficient.

A standard truck can carry anywhere between 100 to 700 barrels per day, depending on the number of trips. Hundreds of thousands of barrels would be needed to meet needs, requiring thousands of trucks, which could also be targeted in strikes.

Video captured flames and black smoke where a projectile from Lebanon killed at least one person and injured 13 others in Nahariya, Israel. Burnt vehicles and extensive shrapnel damage could be seen at the site.

Watch this discussion between Ross Harrison and Hassan Ahmadian on US strategy regarding Iran. They conclude the US is still negotiating with old talking points, while Iran has moved on.

Iranian missiles have caused widespread damage across Israel in the latest wave of attacks, as President Donald Trump says US-Israeli strikes have destroyed the majority of Iran’s missile launchers.

President Trump on Thursday continued projecting confidence in the U.S. war effort in Iran, suggesting online and during a high-level Cabinet meeting that Iran has been “obliterated,” that its leaders were “begging” for a deal, and that the U.S. is “roaming free” over Iran and “NEEDS NOTHING” from its European allies.

His description of the war as all but finished — he actually said “we’ve won” — stood in contrast to the facts on the ground, where Iran continued to launch attacks and threaten oil tanker traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. continued sending troops and warships to what is already the largest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East in decades.

Trump’s framing of the conflict also contrasted with that of Iranian officials, who have remained publicly defiant, downplayed negotiations and outwardly rejected several of Trump’s conditions for ending the war — as Trump himself acknowledged, accusing them of saying one thing in private and another in public.

“They better get serious soon, before it is too late,” the president wrote on social media, “because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty.”

“They are begging to make a deal, not me,” Trump reiterated later Thursday, while hosting his first Cabinet meeting since the war began. “Anybody that sees what is happening understands why they are begging to make a deal.”

Trump asserted that Iran’s military capabilities have been destroyed, and that the American mission is “ahead of schedule.” He said American forces were operating without opposition over Iran, and “there’s not a damn thing they can do about it” because they’ve been “beat to s—.”

Trump’s outward confidence, a defining feature of the war campaign that has been consistently echoed by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and other administration loyalists, continued despite growing concerns this week in Congress — and not only from Democrats.

Several Republicans emerged from a classified war briefing Wednesday clearly frustrated with the administration for not providing a clearer picture of the path out of the now monthlong war, or clear answers on whether it planned to deploy ground troops.

“We want to know more about what’s going on,” said Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. “We’re just not getting enough answers.”

“I can see why he might have said that,” said Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Democrats have hammered the president — contrasting the war and its massive budget with rising fuel costs for average Americans and lamenting the deaths of U.S. service members.

“Thirteen American lives lost and tens of billions of taxpayer dollars spent in just three weeks since Donald Trump plunged us into war without congressional authorization. There is still no plan, no clear justification, and no end in sight,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) said. “Americans called for lower prices, not endless wars.”

For weeks, Trump, Hegseth and other war leaders such as Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have focused on U.S. wins in the conflict — tallying up Iran’s sunken ships and grounded planes, assassinated leaders and undermined missile capabilities.

In recent days, Trump has suggested that, because of those wins, Iran is buckling and its leaders reaching out for a deal. He has said the U.S. is pushing a 15-point plan that will forever block Iran from developing a nuclear weapon or threatening the U.S. or its allies. And he and others in his administration have accused the media of ignoring tremendous battlefield wins to harp on losses instead.

Israel, America’s major partner in the conflict, has projected similar confidence while showing no signs of slowing its attacks on Iran. On Thursday it announced it had killed several senior Iranian naval commanders, including Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, the head of Revolutionary Guard’s navy.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said the deaths should send a “clear message” that Israel will continue to hunt down top Iranian military officials. Iran did not immediately acknowledge Tangsiri’s death.

The head of U.S. Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, praised Tangsiri’s killing, said U.S. strikes would continue, and called on Iranian fighters to “immediately abandon their post and return home to avoid further risk of unnecessary injury or death.”

Meanwhile, death, destruction and environmental and economic damage from the war spread far beyond Iran, where officials recently increased their estimated death toll to nearly 2,000.

Israel was fighting off a barrage of incoming missiles Thursday, with booms heard in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and an impact reported in the central town of Kafr Qassem. Iraqi Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Tahsin al Khafaj on Thursday said 23 people had been wounded in a Wednesday strike on a military clinic in western Iraq’s Anbar province.

Israeli soldiers grieve during the funeral of Staff Sgt. Ori Greenberg, 21, at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Thursday.

(Odd Andersen / AFP via Getty Images)

Thousands of additional U.S. troops are on their way to the region, while many of the tens of thousands already stationed there have been displaced into hotels and other temporary housing — diminishing their war-fighting capabilities — by Iranian attacks that have left the 13 regional military bases they normally live on “all but uninhabitable,” the New York Times reported.

Iran announced Thursday that it had launched drone and missile attacks on a U.S. military base in Kuwait and a separate air base used by American forces in Saudi Arabia.

Jasem Mohamed al-Budaiwi, the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, accused Iran of charging fees for ships to safely transit the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the economic toll on global oil supplies. Environmental experts warned of massive pollution from burning oil and gas fields.

Russia, emboldened by the Iran war, which has drawn resources away from Ukraine and led the U.S. to ease sanctions on Russian oil, has launched a renewed spring offensive against Ukraine.

The distance between U.S. and Iranian messaging about the war and their negotiations to end it — which foreign officials have said are occurring through intermediaries — has contributed to the tensions and the reluctance of allies to get involved, with some citing similar frustrations as Republicans in Congress this week.

Many allies have largely stayed out of the conflict despite Trump vacillating between demanding their help and insisting it isn’t necessary.

In one of his posts to social media Thursday morning, Trump blasted allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, for having “DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO HELP” in the conflict, and said the U.S. would “never forget.”

During his Cabinet meeting, Trump said that when the “right deal” is made with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen — while insisting that Iran no longer has any “mine droppers” that would threaten merchant vessels passing through the key oil route.

Steve Witkoff, one of Trump’s top advisors leading the negotiations in the Middle East, said the Iranians were looking for an “offramp,” that Pakistan is serving as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, and that the U.S. has presented a 15-point plan that “forms the framework for a peace deal.”

“These are sensitive, diplomatic discussions and you have directed us to maintain confidentiality on the specific terms and not negotiate through the news media, as others do,” Witkoff said. “We will see where things lead and if we can convince Iran that this is the inflection point, with no good alternatives for them other than more death and destruction.”

Trump has also declined to say whom Washington is negotiating with in Iran, but described them as “very smart,” “not fools,” and “very lousy fighters, but great negotiators.”

He also said he knows they are “the right people” for the U.S. to be dealing with because they had given him a “present” — and proved they are in control — by allowing “eight big boats of oil” travel through the strait this week.

Asked if he intended to send U.S. troops into Iran to take its enriched uranium, he called it a “ridiculous question” that he wouldn’t answer.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is confident that more merchant vessels will soon be able to safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He also told the president that he believed the oil market is currently “well supplied” and that once the war ends, energy prices will drop.

Hegseth repeatedly slammed the media for falsely framing the war effort as floundering or unfocused, saying Iran’s “air defenses are gone,” its leaders hiding in “underground bunkers,” and its fighters losing morale.

He said Iranian officials in private are admitting “very heavy losses,” and that the U.S. and the world are benefiting from having Trump, whom he called the “ultimate deal maker,” working toward a peace deal.

In the meantime, he said, the U.S. military will “continue negotiating with bombs.”

Details of a plan submitted by Board of Peace Director General Nickolay Mladenov for the disarmament of Hamas and other Palestinian groups in Gaza have been seen by Al Jazeera.

The plan would see disarmament – one of the components of the October ceasefire to end Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza – implemented gradually over an eight-month, multiphase process.

The process would see disarmament in exchange for Israel fulfilling its own obligations, including allowing reconstruction materials into Gaza to begin the work of rebuilding the enclave after Israel’s devastation of the territory since October 2023. Israel would also allow an increase in humanitarian aid entering Gaza, and the plan envisions the transfer of the administration of the Palestinian territory to a national committee.

Mladenov referred to the plan in general terms in a speech to the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday. There he said the plan had been “presented to relevant armed groups” that were urged to accept the framework “without delay”.

“Decommissioning [arms] proceeds in parallel with staged withdrawal,” Mladenov said.

The disarmament of groups in Gaza has been a controversial topic, particularly as Israel has continued to attack the enclave during the ceasefire, killing hundreds of Palestinians. Israel has also not stopped restricting aid into Gaza, driving up prices, even as many in the territory remain displaced and unable to afford basic items.

Hamas has repeatedly refused to give up its arms as long as Israel’s occupation of Gaza continues. Israeli forces maintain a presence in Gaza in areas beyond a “yellow line”, giving it a de facto buffer zone that Palestinians cannot approach without risking being shot. Hamas has also said disarmament is an internal Palestinian matter that should be discussed between factions rather than imposed from the outside.

Hamas and Israel have so far not officially reacted to the details of the Mladenov plan. But Palestinian experts have previously told Al Jazeera that the plan in effect means the “political surrender” of Hamas.

The Board of Peace, created by United States President Donald Trump in the wake of the ceasefire his government brokered, has assumed oversight of Gaza’s administration.

Step-by-step process

The Mladenov plan operates on a step-by-step formula, with transitions between phases only taking place once both sides have fulfilled their obligations.

The first phase, spanning the first two weeks of the deal, would see a complete cessation of military operations by Israel and Hamas as well as the implementation of humanitarian protocols that Israel committed to under the ceasefire. Representatives of the Palestinian national committee – a technocratic body established after the ceasefire with the aim of administering Gaza – would also be allowed into Gaza during this phase to assume all security and administrative responsibilities.

The second phase of the proposal, which would take place between day 16 and day 60, represents the central element of the plan with the beginning of the disarmament process. Hamas and other Palestinian factions would cooperate to remove heavy weapons initially from areas controlled by Israel and then, before 90 days, from areas still controlled by Hamas.

Hamas would also destroy its tunnel network before day 90 of the plan.

For its part, Israel would be required to allow temporary prefabricated residential units to be constructed in locations approved by the Palestinian national committee.

Once all sides have met their obligations in the first three months of the plan, they would move on to the next phase, in which Israeli forces would gradually withdraw to the perimeters of Gaza after a monitoring committee determines that Palestinian factions in Gaza have been disarmed.

Security forces answerable to the Palestinian national committee would be tasked with gathering weapons. That task should be completed by day 251, and if it is, then Israel would withdraw from Gaza with the exception of an undefined security perimeter “until Gaza is secured … from the potential for a return of any terrorist threat”.

Full reconstruction would also be permitted at this stage as well as the lifting of restrictions on the entry of “dual-use materials”, such as concrete, steel, fertilisers and fuel, which Israel has severely restricted, arguing that they can be used for military purposes even as humanitarian groups emphasise their importance to civilian life.

Scepticism

The plan, if implemented, would mark a final end to the war and to Hamas’s almost two-decade-long rule of Gaza.

But stumbling blocks remain, including whether Israel is truly prepared to withdraw from Gaza, fulfil its commitments and not attempt to spoil any deal, as it has in the past.

Hamas and other Palestinian factions are deeply sceptical of Israel’s adherence to any deal and to the idea of giving up their weapons, seeing them as a vital part of Palestinian national resistance.

Hamas would also give up all control of Gaza as part of what the plan envisions as “one authority, one law, and one weapon” in the territory under the Palestinian national committee.

Mladenov referenced that principle at the UN, adding that “the people of Gaza want reconstruction, and reconstruction requires the decommissioning of weapons.”

Ross Harrison, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, says public talk of diplomacy between the US and Iran is hiding hardline positions, warning that despite the messaging, the situation is still likely heading toward military escalation.

WASHINGTON — Most Americans believe recent U.S. military action against Iran has gone too far, and many are worried about affording gasoline, according to a new AP-NORC poll.

As the war launched by the U.S. and Israel continues in its fourth week, the survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicates that while President Trump’s approval rating is holding steady, the conflict could be swiftly turning into a major political liability for his Republican administration.

While Trump is deploying more warships and troops to the Middle East, about 59% of Americans say U.S. military action in Iran has been excessive.

Meanwhile, 45% are “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to afford gas in the next few months, up from 30% in an AP-NORC poll conducted shortly after Trump won reelection with promises that he would improve the economy and lower the cost of living.

There is significant support for at least one of the president’s objectives, which is preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. About two-thirds of Americans say that should be an “extremely” or “very” important foreign policy goal for the U.S. However, they are just as likely to say it’s important to keep U.S. oil and gas prices from rising — a juxtaposition that could be difficult for the White House to manage.

About 4 in 10 U.S. adults continue to approve of Trump’s performance as president, which is unchanged from last month. His approval on foreign policy, while slightly lower than his overall approval, also largely held steady.

Trump has left unclear his next steps on Iran. Despite escalating threats, he’s also suggested diplomatic talks could resolve the fighting. Americans remain broadly apprehensive about Trump’s ability to make the right decisions on the use of military force outside the U.S., and they mostly oppose more aggressive steps, such as deploying ground forces.

Republicans and Democrats prioritize keeping gas prices low

Keeping the price at the pump down is the rare goal that unites Americans in both major political parties.

About three-quarters of Republicans and about two-thirds of Democrats say it’s highly important to prevent U.S. oil and gas prices from going up.

However, concern about the current situation isn’t evenly felt. Only about 3 in 10 Republicans said they’re “extremely” or “very” worried about affording gas in the next few months, as opposed to about 6 in 10 Democrats.

Trump’s focus on Iran’s nuclear program also appears more compelling to Republicans than to Democrats. About two-thirds of Americans say the U.S. should prioritize keeping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but about 8 in 10 Republicans say this is at least “very” important, compared with about half of Democrats.

The war has exacerbated political debates over the role that Israel should play in U.S. foreign policy, especially since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was a leading voice for attacking Iran. Only about 4 in 10 U.S. adults say preventing Iran from threatening Israel should be a high priority.

Toppling Iran’s leaders is viewed as slightly less important. Only about 3 in 10 say it’s at least “very” important for the U.S. to replace Iran’s government with one that’s friendlier to U.S. interests.

Most Americans say U.S. action has gone too far in Iran

As Trump provides mixed messages on whether the Iran war will end soon, about 9 in 10 Democrats and about 6 in 10 independents say the Iran attacks have “gone too far.”

Republicans are more divided. About half of Republicans say the U.S. military action has been “about right,” but relatively few want to see it go further. Only about 2 in 10 Republicans say the U.S. military action has not gone far enough, while about one-quarter say it’s gone too far.

Recent AP-NORC polling has found that about 6 in 10 Americans say Trump has “gone too far” on a range of issues, including his approach to tariffs and presidential power. That number, which is broadly reflective of his overall approval, signals that while Trump’s actions in Iran are unpopular, it’s still comparable to other controversial moves he’s taken as president.

Further entrenching the U.S. in the war could change that, depending on what happens next. About 6 in 10 Americans “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose deploying U.S. troops on the ground to fight Iran, including about 8 in 10 Democrats and roughly half of Republicans. Just under half of Americans oppose airstrikes targeting Iranian leaders and airstrikes against military targets in Iran, while about 3 in 10 are in favor and about 3 in 10 don’t have an opinion.

Many Americans distrust Trump on use of military force abroad

About half of U.S. adults have “only a little” trust or “none at all” in Trump when it comes to making the right decisions about the use of military force outside the U.S., in line with an AP-NORC poll from February.

About 34% of U.S. adults approve of the way Trump is handling foreign policy, similar to 36% in February. That measure has been consistent in recent months despite a cascade of actions, including confrontations over Greenland and an attack on Venezuela, that have generated controversy at home and abroad.

It’s also very similar to Trump’s approval on Iran in the new poll, which found that 35% of Americans have a positive view of his handling of that issue.

Sanders and Catalini write for the Associated Press. The AP-NORC poll of 1,150 adults was conducted March 19-23 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Donald Trump said Iran is negotiating with the US but is “afraid to say it”. Speaking at a Republican fundraising dinner, Trump said that Iran’s leaders fear they could be “killed by their own people” or by the US.

Settler attacks, restrictions on aid, and land seizures marked a week that was supposed to be one of celebration for Palestinians. Al Jazeera’s Nida Ibrahim and Tareq Abu Azzoum explain what’s been going on in the occupied West Bank and Gaza.

Iran has kept up attacks on neighbouring Gulf states and Israel, despite intense US and Israeli bombing, with senior Iranian figures assassinated.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed – limiting the transit of vital energy supplies.

So what’s Iran’s strategy, and what are its options?

Presenter: Nick Clark

Guests:

Foad Izadi – Professor in the Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran

Mehran Kamrava – Professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and director of the Iranian Studies Unit, Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies

Elijah Magnier – Military and political analyst who specialises in wars in the Middle East