Iran

Holidaymakers planning a trip to Spain who haven’t yet booked their flights are being warned to do so know amid speculation that escalating oil prices could soon drive up the costs

A Spanish tourist boss has warned that Brits who haven’t yet booked their summer holidays should book flights as soon as possible to avoid “price fluctuations”.

Jordi Hereu, Spain’s Industry and Tourism Minister, made the comments to Spanish news outlet Expansion yesterday (April 27), warning that growth in the tourist industry could be dampened by rises in the cost of flights. Last year, Spain welcomed 97 million tourists through its borders, and was expected to hit the 100 million mark this year.

He said: “What ⁠we’re recommending is that ‌people buy their tickets now because it’s true that (airlines) are currently using kerosene that was purchased some time ‌ago, and therefore there’s an element of ‌price fluctuations involved.”

“It’s already clear that prices have risen and this could affect demand.” he added. He went on to reassure holidaymakers that authorities were looking at ways to prevent fuel shortages as the busy summer season looms.

READ MORE: Passport holders urged to act as issue could see them ‘turned away at airports’READ MORE: TUI issues Tuesday April 28 update for passengers with holidays to Europe booked

But Mr Hereu also warned: “If the countries ‌that send tourists to Spain had problems, we would have them too.”

Many airlines have been foreced to cancel flights this spring and summer due to the rising cost of jet fuel as supplies run law, as a consequence of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the Israeli and US attack on Iran.

Keir Starmer said the UK was doing “everything we can” to reopen the Strait, although the UK PM warned: “I don’t want anybody to think that, once the Strait is open, that that’s the end of the damage. It will go on longer than that.”

He went on to tell Sky News: “I can see that, if there’s more impact, people might change their habits… where they go on holiday this year, what they’re buying in the supermarket, that sort of thing.”

Corneel Koster, Virgin Atlantic’s chief executive, told the Telegraph: “I was looking at improving our financial results by a really significant chunk. And then this happens. We have never seen jet fuel at these levels, with prices more than doubling. The industry cannot absorb increases like this.”

In recent weeks, the cost of a barrel of jet fuel has increased from £63 to as high as £148 amid the conflict in the Middle East. The cost of fuel accounts for around a quarter or more of operating expenses for airlines, meaning it can have a big impact on profits.

According to reports by the BBC, the lowest-priced economy tickets currently cost 24% more on average than this time last year. In response, airlines have asked for measures such as a cut or suspension to Air Passenger Duty to be put in place to balance out the costs for consumers.

READ MORE: UK tourists face risk of new airline strikes in European country 1.3m visit a yearREAD MORE: ‘I cried every day in England so moved 10,000 miles away – now my salary’s doubled’

A number of airlines have already cut services, such as Lufthansa, which has axed 20,000 European short-haul flights, which it claims will save around 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel. The German airline will offer customers options, including refunding fares or booking them on alternative flights with other airlines.

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The United States is considering a new proposal from Iran to end the ongoing war amid a fragile ceasefire between the longtime adversaries.

The offer focuses on reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz while postponing a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme, arguably the most contentious issue between Tehran and Washington.

According to US media outlets, the proposal has drawn scrutiny in Washington, and officials there have expressed scepticism.

Early indications from the Trump administration suggest the plan is unlikely to be accepted in its current form, potentially further delaying any prospect of permanently ending the currently paused US-Israel war on Iran, which has killed thousands and sent global energy prices soaring.

Here is what we know so far:

What’s in Iran’s latest proposal?

Iran’s latest proposal aims for de-escalation in the Gulf without immediately placing restraints on its nuclear programme, as the US has demanded. Tehran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that the US lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports and agrees to end the war.

Iran has effectively closed the strait to shipping, creating global economic pressure by driving up energy prices and disrupting supply chains. In peacetime, one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped through the narrow passage, which links Gulf oil producers to the open ocean.

Days after the ceasefire began on April 8, Trump announced a blockade on Iranian ports and ships, restricting Tehran’s ability to export oil and cutting off a crucial source of its revenue.

However, a central feature of Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait to all traffic is that discussions over Iran’s nuclear activities would be postponed until after the war ends.

The proposal was conveyed to Washington through Pakistan, which has been acting as a mediator.

“These messages concern some of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s red lines, including nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz,” Iranian state media Fars News Agency reported.

“Informed sources emphasise Mr Araghchi is acting entirely within the framework of the specified red lines and the diplomatic duties of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”

The news agency said the messages relayed were “unrelated to negotiations” and are “considered an initiative by Iran to clarify the regional situation”.

Iranian analyst Abas Aslani said Iran’s latest proposal is based on an “altered” approach.

Aslani, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Middle East Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera that Tehran believes its previous model – which was based on making compromises on its nuclear programme in exchange for economic sanctions relief – is no longer a “viable path towards a potential accord”.

“Iran believes this can also function as a trust-building measure to compensate for the trust-deficit issue,” he added.

On Monday, Tehran’s envoy to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, said “lasting stability and security” in the Gulf and the wider region can only be achieved through a durable and permanent cessation of aggression against Iran.

How has the US responded so far?

US President Donald Trump met with top security advisers on Monday to discuss the Iranian proposal, the White House confirmed.

However, according to media reports, the US response has been largely dismissive. According to Reuters, an unnamed US official said President Trump was unhappy with the proposal because it did not include provisions for Iran’s nuclear programme. The official noted that “he doesn’t love the proposal”.

Citing two people familiar with the matter, US media outlet CNN reported that Trump was unlikely to accept the proposal. It said Washington lifting its blockade of Iranian ports without resolving questions over Tehran’s nuclear programme “could remove a key piece of American leverage in the talks”.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News on Monday that the proposal was “better than what we thought they were going to submit”, but questioned Tehran’s intentions.

“They’re very good negotiators,” he said. “We have to ensure that any deal that is made, any agreement that is made, is one that definitively prevents them from sprinting towards a nuclear weapon at any point.”

Al Jazeera’s Mike Hanna, reporting from Washington, said, “There’s been a complete lid over what was discussed” during the meeting between Trump and his national security team.

“It was so tight that we do not know exactly who in his national security team was present at that meeting,” Hanna added.

“Normally, there is some form of readout or some form of more information giving, fleshing out the details of a meeting like this.”

What has been the response from other countries?

While the “US and Iran feel that time is on their side, the longer this goes on, the more difficult it’s going to be,” Mohamed Elmasry, an analyst for the Doha Institute of Graduate Studies, said.

“I really don’t think time is on anyone’s side. I really do think the Europeans are losing patience,” he told Al Jazeera.

On Monday, German Chancellor Merz stated that the “Iranians are negotiating very skilfully”, Elmasry noted. He said this shows that Trump is coming under increasing pressure from his allies, “who believe he [Trump] got them into this big mess and isn’t able to clean it up”.

“Trump isn’t going to be happy hearing that and the chancellor is hitting Trump where it hurts.”

Iran has raised concerns about the vulnerability of submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz, which are crucial for the region’s digital economy. This narrow waterway, known for its importance in global oil shipments, also supports several fibre-optic cables connecting countries from India and Southeast Asia to Europe via the Gulf states and Egypt.

Submarine cables are essential for transmitting data and power, carrying about 99% of the world’s internet traffic. They play a significant role in telecommunications, cloud services, and online communication. Damage to these cables can lead to internet slowdowns, outages, disrupted e-commerce, and delayed financial transactions, causing economic consequences, according to analyst Masha Kotkin.

Gulf countries, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have invested billions into artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure to reduce dependence on oil, with their national AI companies relying heavily on undersea cables for data transfer. Key submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz include the Asia-Africa-Europe 1 (AAE-1), the FALCON network, and the Gulf Bridge International Cable System, with additional infrastructures being built.

Despite the growth in submarine cable length, faults have remained stable at around 150–200 incidents yearly, largely due to human activities like fishing and anchor dragging, with state-sponsored sabotage being a potential risk. Other threats include undersea currents, earthquakes, and typhoons. To mitigate these risks, the industry has measures such as burying cables and selecting safer routes.

The ongoing Iran war has caused significant disruption to energy supply and regional infrastructure, though subsea cables have not yet suffered damage. However, military operations increase the risk of unintentional damage from ships inadvertently impacting cables. Historical incidents, like one in 2024, highlight these risks.

Repairing damaged cables in conflict areas presents challenges, including obtaining permits and addressing the dangers of remaining fighting or mines. Once conflicts end, another challenge lies in re-evaluating the sea floor to ensure the cables’ safety.

If subsea cables are damaged, there are alternatives like land-based links, but experts warn that satellite systems cannot replace them due to limited capacity and higher costs. Low-Earth-orbit networks like Starlink are not a scalable solution for millions of users at present.

with information from Reuters

Rights groups have described the move as a “blatant abuse of power”.

Bahrain has stripped dozens of people of their citizenship for allegedly supporting Iranian attacks on the country.

Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior announced on Monday that it had revoked the citizenship of 69 people, some of whom were related, after accusing them of sympathising with Iran and “colluding with foreign entities”. The move comes after Tehran carried out strikes on facilities in Bahrain as part of the war launched against Iran by Israel and the United States.

The directive, issued by King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, stated that all 69 people were “of non-Bahraini origin”. Under Bahraini law, a person can be stripped of citizenship if they are deemed to have caused harm to the country or shown disloyalty.

The London-based Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy described the move as “dangerous” and a clear violation of international law.

The organisation said the individuals had not been publicly identified, and it remained unclear whether they had been arrested, whether they were inside or outside Bahrain, and whether they held another nationality.

Iranian strikes

Tehran began striking its Gulf neighbours on February 28, shortly after Israel and the United States began the war by launching attacks on Iran.

Tehran accused the targeted countries of allowing the US to conduct its strikes from their territory. Iran’s retaliatory attacks reportedly caused significant damage to US military sites across the region, including a Navy base in Bahrain, which was hit by missiles and drones.

Iran ceased its attacks on Gulf neighbours on April 9, following the introduction of a ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Negotiations to permanently end the war are ongoing three weeks later.

Bahrain’s Shia population has long accused authorities of marginalising them. During the Arab Spring in 2011, mass protests against the country’s leadership broke out. The Bahraini government has long blamed Iran for fomenting unrest against it.

Fuel costs more. Food is harder to get or afford. Jobs are disappearing. Remittances are drying up.

These are the consequences of the United States-Israel war on Iran – felt not only in the Middle East but also in the fields and homes of Africa and Asia.

Countries in the Global South are particularly vulnerable to the economic fallout because of their dependence on imports from the Gulf.

The United Nations warned that the conflict could push as many as 32.5 million people globally back into poverty.

The war is weakening economies that were already fragile. Governments are scrambling, and international aid is becoming scarce.

The low-cost airline is cancelling flights in May and June due to soaring aviation fuel prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East

An airline that operates routes to and from the UK is axing flights in May and June because of surging fuel costs. Transavia, the budget airline owned by the Air France-KLM group, is scrapping scheduled services for May and June to cut expenses as aviation fuel prices soar due to the Middle East conflict.

The Air France-KLM group’s low-cost arm will change its timetable for May and June to streamline costs amid rocketing fuel prices linked to the Middle East war, a spokesperson confirmed to AFP. The airline operates from London Stansted to Rotterdam several times a week, and is used by tourists who fly to Schiphol airport in the Netherlands before going on to other European destinations with Transavia.

“Due to the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East and its impact on aviation fuel prices, Transavia France is adapting its flight schedule and is forced to cancel several flights scheduled for May and June 2026,” the carrier, which runs medium-distance routes, stated.

The cancellations represent “less than 2% of the flight schedule for the May-June period,” a spokesperson informed AFP. Transavia said “customers affected by a cancellation are notified individually by SMS and email.” Details of which routes are affected have not been disclosed so far.

They can then “benefit, according to their choice, from a free rescheduling, a voucher, or a full refund of their ticket.” Additionally, “for the majority of cancelled flights, a rescheduling solution within 24 hours is offered,” the airline states.

Europe normally gets half of its fuel from Gulf nations. However, since the start of the war between the United States and Iran in late February, the Strait of Hormuz has been shut down by Tehran.

In Brussels, European Commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned that the EU was “approaching very rapidly” a potential supply crisis, raising concerns about a summer characterised by “higher airfares and cancellations.” Airlines including Transavia have already begun raising ticket prices, with increases averaging approximately 10 euros per return journey, according to the carrier’s spokesperson speaking to AFP.

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones warned on Sunday that the ongoing conflict is likely to push up costs for energy, food and flight tickets in the coming months, with potential disruptions to energy supplies affecting production rather than causing empty supermarket shelves.

“You’re going to see prices go up a bit as a consequence of what Donald Trump has done in the Middle East,” he told the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme. “That’s probably going to come online not just in the next few weeks, but the next few months. There’s going to be a long tail from this.”

When pressed on how long elevated prices could last, he indicated it would be roughly eight months after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and tensions in the region begin to ease. “I think our best guess is eight-plus months from the point of resolution that you’ll see economic impacts coming through the system,” the minister said.

Last week, German airline Lufthansa said it would cut 20,000 European short-haul flights over the summer. It blamed the price of jet fuel.

An industry expert told travel journalist Simon Calder on his podcast last week that he expected more flights to be cut by airlines. Ted Wake, managing director of Kirker Holidays, said: “I think Lufthansa has got a very comprehensive schedule. Twenty thousand flights isn’t a drop in the ocean but it’s a relatively small number if you look at the overall picture.

“I think other airlines within the UK market will be doing something similar.”

German chancellor warns the US risks becoming bogged down in another quagmire similar to Iraq and Afghanistan.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says the United States is being “humiliated” in its war with Iran, warning that Washington lacks a clear path out of the conflict as Tehran gains the upper hand.

Speaking to students in the German town of Marsberg on Monday, Merz said the situation has exposed a deeper strategic problem for the US as he drew comparisons with past military debacles.

“The problem with conflicts like this is always you don’t just have to get in – you have to get out again. We saw that very painfully in Afghanistan for 20 years. We saw it in Iraq,” he said.

Merz said Iranian officials were “obviously negotiating very skilfully” and appeared “clearly stronger than one thought”, adding that “an entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership”, particularly by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Merz urged a rapid end to the war, warning that the fallout was already hitting Germany’s economy.

“It is, at the moment, a pretty tangled situation,” he said. “And it is costing us a great deal of money. This conflict, this war against Iran, has a direct impact on our economic output.”

The German leader said Berlin remains ready to deploy minesweepers to help secure shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global petroleum supplies, but stressed that such steps depend on a cessation of hostilities.

Merz made the comments as concerns are growing across Europe over the wider impact of the conflict, including energy disruptions and economic instability.

Earlier, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned that nuclear threats continue to shape the security environment, even as Berlin reaffirmed its commitment to nonproliferation.

“As long as nuclear threats against us and our partners continue, we will need a credible deterrent,” he said before meetings at the United Nations on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

France and Germany have recently moved to deepen cooperation on nuclear deterrence, reflecting mounting anxiety in Europe over both the Iran war and broader regional instability.

Iran’s foreign minister heads to Russia as Trump says Iranian leaders can call on the phone if they want to talk.

As part of promoting the Chinese Global Security Initiative (GSI) as an alternative to the Western approach, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed a four-point initiative for peace and stability in the Middle East in mid-April 2026, following escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Israeli war against Iran. This initiative aims to offer Chinese wisdom for conflict resolution based on sovereignty and development, in contrast to what China considers destabilizing Western alliances. President Xi Jinping discussed and presented this initiative in mid-April 2026 during his meeting with Khalid bin Mohammed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, outlining a comprehensive four-point initiative aimed at preserving and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East. This Chinese initiative comes within the context of Beijing’s efforts to strengthen its role as a diplomatic mediator following the escalation of tensions in the region. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s four peace initiatives for 2026 are the commitment to the principle of peaceful coexistence, supporting Gulf and Middle Eastern countries in improving their relations, and building a comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security architecture in the region based on the principle that the countries of the region are neighbors and cannot be geographically relocated. (Commitment to the principle of national sovereignty), through China’s support for and respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states and its rejection of interference in their internal affairs, while emphasizing the protection of the security of states, their people, infrastructure, and institutions. (China’s full commitment to the principle of the rule of international law), by adhering to the basic norms of international relations and supporting the international system centered on the United Nations, to prevent a return to the law of the jungle. (Reconciling development and security by affirming that security is a prerequisite for development and working to create a favorable environment for sustainable economic development to ensure long-term stability.)

These Chinese moves come as part of China’s efforts to present its Global Security Initiative (GSI) as an alternative to the Western approach to conflict resolution. They are considered a direct response from China to Western and American policies. These Chinese peace proposals emerged in the context of Beijing’s criticism of the American blockade on Iranian ports, which it described as dangerous and irresponsible. By presenting a Chinese security model, China seeks to position itself as a partner committed to peace and dialogue, rather than the American military alliances that Beijing considers a threat to global security. Furthermore, this initiative aims to reinforce the Beijing Declaration, as China seeks to solidify its role as a mediator (following Saudi-Iranian and Palestinian faction mediation efforts) through a formal initiative.

Thus, the Chinese initiative emerged as a direct response to the escalating tensions in the Gulf region and Iran and as a countermeasure to the American blockade. The Chinese Foreign Ministry described the American blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz as dangerous and irresponsible, threatening the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Especially after the failure of US negotiations with Iran and US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 12, 2026, following the collapse of peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, China stepped in as an international mediator. Consequently, China is attempting to promote its own model by presenting itself as a peace partner focused on economic dialogue, in contrast to Western military alliances, which Beijing considers a threat to global security.

In this context, China is trying to leverage its past diplomatic successes to solidify its role in promoting the Beijing Declaration and to play a mediating role in resolving conflicts, such as the Saudi-Iranian mediation. Based on the 2023 Beijing Agreement to normalize relations, China seeks to strengthen its role in the Gulf region. Furthermore, China is working to solidify the Beijing Declaration of July 2024, which aimed to end the Palestinian division, achieve reconciliation between Palestinian factions, and form a national unity government, as a model for its mediation in resolving complex conflicts. With the strengthening of the Beijing Declaration, the new proposal aims to transform the Beijing Declaration from a factional agreement into an official, internationally supported initiative to solidify China’s role as a key mediator in Palestine as well.

These Chinese moves are part of a broader Chinese strategy to promote the Global Security Initiative (GSI) as an alternative to the Western approach, as outlined by Chinese President Xi Jinping for the period 2022-2026. China emphasizes its rejection of the Cold War mentality, criticizing Washington’s military alliances, such as the trilateral AUKUS security pact between the US, Australia, and the UK, and alliances in the Middle East. China also emphasizes the concept of indivisible security, promoting the idea that a nation’s security cannot be achieved at the expense of other nations’ security. China seeks influence through mediation, aiming to position itself as an alternative superpower capable of addressing the root causes of conflicts through development, rather than through the threat of force.

LONDON — The challenge for King Charles III as he arrives in the United States this week is, as always, to live up to his mother’s example.

The late Queen Elizabeth II wowed Congress in 1991 with a speech that celebrated the shared democratic traditions of Britain and the United States, quoted Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ralph Waldo Emerson, and highlighted the deep bonds between the two nations.

Those themes will also be at the top of Charles’ agenda as he celebrates America’s 250th birthday and seeks to calm tensions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s refusal to support President Trump’s war against Iran, said Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University in Texas.

“We’ve got to always make the distinction that there’s a difference between the government of the U.K. and the kings and queens of Great Britain, who are really always coming to try to put [on] a good face,” Brinkley told the Associated Press. “Politics come and go; prime ministers, presidents, come and go; but there’s something deeper about the special relationship between the United States and the U.K.”

Charles and Queen Camilla begin a four-day trip on Monday, when they will have tea with the president and First Lady Melania Trump, then tour the White House beehive, in a nod to the king’s focus on the environment.

The formal arrival ceremony will take place Tuesday, with a 21-gun salute, brass bands playing the national anthems of both countries and a contingent of U.S. service members passing in review. The ceremonies will be followed by a meeting between Trump and Charles.

Behind the scenes

But beneath the pomp and pageantry will be a carefully choreographed diplomatic event staged, like all royal visits, at the request of the British government. Starmer resisted pressure to cancel it after Trump belittled the British military’s sacrifices in Afghanistan and criticized him personally for failing to back the U.S. in its war alongside Israel against Iran.

Despite those tensions, Trump has continued to speak warmly about Charles.

“History has shown that President Trump really tries to be impressive whenever he’s dealing with British royalty,” Brinkley said. “And I’m sure it’ll be the same this time around.”

Ever since 1939, when King George VI became the first British monarch to set foot on the soil of the country’s former colony, there’s been a special sort of excitement whenever the royals come to the United States.

Take that first visit, which took place as World War II loomed over Europe. The royals toured the East Coast and attended a picnic at President Roosevelt’s private home in Hyde Park, N.Y. “King tries hot dog and asks for more,’’ declared the New York Times.

But the big moment was when the royals traveled to Mount Vernon to lay a wreath at the tomb of George Washington. It showed respect at a time of isolationism.

“People could see the handwriting on the wall and know that it was going to be important for the United States and Britain to stay strong for fighting against Hitler,” said Barbara Perry, a presidential scholar at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center.

But bonding over sausages had broader benefits, helping the royals build links to the general public as well as its leadership. After war broke out in September 1939, Queen Elizabeth, the wife of George VI and mother of the future Elizabeth II, wrote to First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt to say how moved she’d been by letters from Americans who enclosed small sums for British forces.

“Sometimes, during the last terrible months, we have felt rather lonely in our fight against evil things, but I can honestly say that our hearts have been lightened by the knowledge that friends in America understand what we are fighting for,’’ she wrote.

The queen’s connection

Queen Elizabeth II built on those relationships, making four state visits to the U.S. during her 70-year reign. She joined President Ford in celebrating America’s bicentennial in 1976 and met with President George W. Bush in 2007 as British and American forces fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Smoothing turbulent waters and reminding both sides about their common bonds were what those trips were all about.

Charles’ visit will be no different. It includes a commemoration of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, a ceremony honoring fallen service members and an event to be attended by Queen Camilla to mark the 100th anniversary of Winnie the Pooh stories by British author A.A. Milne.

Certain events will be avoided.

The royals won’t meet with Jeffrey Epstein’s victims, despite calls for the king to address his accusations related to his brother Andrew’s links to the convicted sex offender. Nor are there plans for Charles to meet with his son Prince Harry, who has been a critic of the monarchy since giving up royal duties and moving to California.

Those issues aren’t the priority, said Robert Hardman, author of “Elizabeth II: In Private. In Public. The Inside Story.”

“He’s going because 250 years ago the Founding Fathers of the USA kicked out his great-times-five grandfather, and he’s going to say, `No hard feelings, it’s been a great divorce, we’ve had a lovely 250 years and let’s reflect on the high points,’’’ Hardman said. “I mean, there are going to be some very, very large elephants in the room during that visit … but, you know, there are plenty of other things for the king to focus on.”

History, not politics

Charles’ speech to a joint session of Congress offers the chance to deliver the message that long-term friendship is more important than transient disputes.

He is also likely to offer a bit of humor, as his mother did when she addressed lawmakers in 1991.

Wearing soft peach amid a sea of gray suits, the diminutive monarch began her remarks with a joke about an earlier blunder at the White House when her lectern was so tall it obscured the audience’s view of her.

“I do hope you can see me today from where you are,’’ she deadpanned.

The chamber erupted in laughter. A standing ovation followed. Then she launched into a speech about democratic values, the rule of law and the Atlantic Alliance — the foundation of NATO.

Those are values that critics of the current U.S. administration say it has retreated from in recent years. But Charles will offer his own take on those ideas, Brinkley said.

“The theme of the speech is going to be American exceptionalism, American history, the importance of U.S.-British alliance, and some memories from the past,” he said. “But also about the love affair the two countries share with each other, even though it goes over rocky rapids from time to time.”

Kirka writes for the Associated Press.

Abbas Araghchi will speak with ‘senior officials’ in Moscow, Iran’s Foreign Ministry says.

Iran’s top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, has left Islamabad for Moscow, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, as mediators hope to keep the prospect of more Tehran-Washington talks alive.

Araghchi sandwiched a trip to Muscat, Oman, in between visits to the Pakistani capital, leaving on Sunday to be in Moscow the following day. But there was no indication that direct talks between Iran and the United States would resume.

However, in a sign that indirect efforts were ongoing, the Fars news agency reported that Iran had transmitted “written messages” to the Americans via mediator Pakistan, which were “about some of the red lines of the Islamic Republic of Iran, including nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz”.

But the messages were not part of any negotiations, Fars said.

US President Donald Trump last week indefinitely extended the ceasefire that Washington and Tehran agreed to on April 7, which has largely halted the fighting that began with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

But a permanent settlement remains elusive, and the economic shockwaves of the war continue to reverberate around the globe.

Iran has effectively blocked the vital Strait of Hormuz, cutting off vast quantities of oil, natural gas and fertiliser from the global market, and sending prices soaring. The US has imposed a blockade of Iranian ports in response.

There had been hopes for a new round of talks on Saturday, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner due to visit Islamabad, but Trump later told Fox News he had scrapped the trip, saying there was no point “sitting around talking about nothing”.

On Sunday, Trump told the same channel: “I said, we’re not doing this any more. We have all the cards. If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines”.

Asked earlier whether cancelling the trip meant a return to open hostilities, Trump said: “No, it doesn’t mean that.”

Shuttle diplomacy

On Saturday, Araghchi met Pakistan’s military chief, Asim Munir, a key mediator, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ishaq Dar, before flying on to Muscat. He returned to Islamabad on Sunday.

In Russia, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said he would speak with “senior officials”.

Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Araghchi would visit Moscow, but did not say if he would meet President Vladimir Putin.

Amid the flurry of meetings, Araghchi signalled scepticism over Washington’s intentions, saying he had “yet to see if the US is truly serious about diplomacy”.

Despite on-again, off-again negotiations, the United States has no other option but to pursue a diplomatic solution with Iran, argues Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Nasr tells host Steve Clemons that the US-Israel war on Iran has shown the limits of military force.

“You don’t go to the table to demand surrender. The other side is not going to surrender because they haven’t lost. So you have to cut a deal,” Nasr said, adding that Iran’s objective is to make sure the US and Israel understand that “war with Iran isn’t easy”.

Hezbollah rejects allegations from Benjamin Netanyahu that it is undermining the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.

Israel has issued new forced evacuation notices for areas in southern Lebanon, ordering residents of seven towns that lie beyond its so-called “buffer zone” to leave, ramping up the conflict with Hezbollah despite a US-brokered ceasefire.

An Israeli military spokesperson said in a statement on X on Sunday that the Lebanese armed group was violating the ceasefire ⁠and that Israel would act against it, telling residents to head north and west.

The towns are north of the Litani River, in an area where Israeli troops have continued military operations despite the ceasefire. They lie outside of what Israel has declared a “buffer zone”, an area stretching roughly 10km (6 miles) north of the border inside southern Lebanon where Israeli forces remain.

Hezbollah rejected allegations that it is undermining the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, saying its continued attacks are a “legitimate response to the enemy’s persistent violations of the ceasefire”, which it claims have exceeded 500 incidents.

The Iran-aligned group said in a statement on Telegram on Sunday that it shouldn’t be linked to a ceasefire that it didn’t approve, as it had “no say or position”, adding that the group will not “place out bets on a failed diplomacy that has proven its ineffectiveness.”

“It must be understood that Hezbollah’s violations are, in practice, dismantling the ceasefire,” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a weekly cabinet meeting.

The US-mediated ceasefire, which started on April 16 and has been extended to mid-May, has brought a significant reduction in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, though both sides have continued to fire at each other, trading blame over breaches.

Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tyre, Heidi Pett, said “there have been multiple airstrikes across south Lebanon” on Sunday, with many people fleeing to the towns of Sidon and Tyre.

“We once again have thousands of people leaving their homes, joining the hundreds of thousands who were already previously displaced,” she said.

Hezbollah said it attacked Israeli troops inside Lebanon as well as the rescue force that came to evacuate them, targeting a newly established Israeli artillery position in the town of Biyyada with a swarm of drones.

It also claimed two drone attacks on a gathering of Israeli soldiers in the town of Taybeh, saying casualties were reported among Israeli forces, without giving further details.

‘The security of Israel’

The Israeli army said a 19-year-old soldier, Sergeant Idan Fooks, was killed “during combat” in southern Lebanon, while five others were injured.

“From our perspective, what obliges us is the security of Israel, the security of our soldiers, the security of our communities,” Netanyahu was cited as saying at a cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, by Reuters news agency.

Under the terms of the truce, Israel reserves the right to respond to “planned, imminent or ongoing attacks” and has been striking what it says are Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon almost every day.

The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah’s “military infrastructure sites used to advance attacks,” in a post on X.

Since the war was renewed between Israel and Hezbollah on March 2, at least 2,509 people have been killed and 7,755 wounded by Israeli attacks, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

United States President Donald Trump has cancelled a planned visit to Pakistan by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who had been expected to explore indirect talks, which remain deadlocked over issues that include the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

“If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social on Saturday, signalling that Washington for now would not send negotiators to Pakistan, the country that is mediating between the longtime adversaries.

With neither Washington nor Tehran showing much willingness to soften their positions, prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough in the US-Israeli war on Iran and securing a lasting ceasefire remain stalled.

The conflict spilled into the larger Middle East region, including Lebanon, causing the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s and risking a global recession.

So what do we know about the talks and where they stand as of now?

What has the US said?

The US president on Saturday told reporters in Florida that he scrapped his envoys’ visit because the talks involved too much travel and expense to consider an inadequate offer from the Iranians.

After the diplomatic trip was called off, Iran “offered a lot, but not enough”, Trump said.

On Truth Social, he wrote that there was “tremendous infighting and confusion” within Iran’s leadership.

“Nobody knows who is in charge, including them,” he posted. “Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!”

What has Iran said?

In Tehran, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that his government will not enter negotiations while the US maintains a blockade on Iranian ports.

In a phone call with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Saturday night, Pezeshkian said Washington “should first remove operational obstacles, including the blockade,” before any new talks can begin, according to the ISNA and Tasnim news agencies.

Meanwhile, during his visit to Islamabad on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held separate meetings with Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Sharif.

In a post on Telegram, Araghchi said their discussions covered regional dynamics and Iran’s non-negotiable positions without disclosing specifics. He added that Tehran intends to engage with Pakistan’s mediation efforts “until a result is achieved”.

After departing Islamabad on Saturday, Araghchi travelled to Oman, where he discussed ways to end the conflict with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, according to state media.

He was then scheduled to continue on to Russia. Iran’s IRNA news agency said Araghchi is expected to return to Islamabad on Sunday for additional talks.

What has Pakistan said?

Despite hardening public positions from Washington and Tehran, Pakistan’s political and military leadership is continuing to mediate, two Pakistani officials said on Sunday, according to The Associated Press news agency. They were quoted as describing the indirect ceasefire contacts as still alive but fragile.

There were no immediate plans for US envoys to return for talks, according to the Pakistani officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media, AP added.

Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett, reporting from Islamabad, said Pakistani officials are underscoring that the expected return of Araghchi to Islamabad is seen as a “hopeful sign”.

“What they hope is that this will in fact be something that can be incremental in the process and will advance forward,” she reported.

What is happening with the ceasefire?

The US-Iran ceasefire began on April 8 after nearly six weeks of US and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory Iranian attacks against Israel and across the Gulf region.

The two sides held talks in Islamabad on April 11 aimed at securing a permanent deal, but they ended after 21 hours with no breakthrough.

After repeated threats of restarting the war if Iran did not heed Washington’s demands, Trump extended the ceasefire on Tuesday without a set deadline, saying he was in no rush to conclude a peace deal with Iran.

While the truce has held for the most part, the two sides continue to accuse each other of violations.

Iranian forces, which have essentially blocked the Strait of Hormuz, have captured commercial vessels, and the US has intercepted or detained ships suspected of violating its naval blockade of Iranian ports just one week after the ceasefire went into effect.

The naval blockade is seen by Iran as a breach of the ceasefire. Tehran has warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible as long as the blockade remains in place.

The critical waterway has become a central dispute in the conflict. One-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies were shipped through the strait, which links the Gulf to the Arabian Sea, before the war began.

Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. The Gulf nations, which export most of their petroleum through the strait, have opposed the Iranian plan to impose tolls.

Another key issue is the debate over Iran’s stock of enriched uranium.

The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims.

Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and Tehran says it has the right to pursue a civilian nuclear programme. But according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the global nuclear watchdog, Iran has enriched uranium to 60 percent, a level that is far higher than what is needed for civilian use.

US President Donald Trump calls off a planned trip to Pakistan by his envoys, in the latest setback to efforts to end the war with Iran.

Prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough in the US-Israeli war with Iran appear to have dimmed, with negotiations to end the two-month conflict stalled as both Tehran and Washington show little sign of easing their positions.

US President Donald Trump cancelled a planned visit to Islamabad by his envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, dealing blows to peace prospects, while Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, left Pakistan at the weekend. There, he presented mediators with a potential framework for ending the conflict.

The US president has said that Washington has received a new peace proposal from Tehran, but it has already been rejected.

The conflict has already pushed energy prices to multi-year highs, stoked inflation and darkened global growth prospects.

Here is what we know on day 58 of the conflict:

In Iran

• Araghchi left for Oman, saying he would return to Pakistan again on Sunday before heading to Russia, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported.
• According to a statement posted on X by US Central Command (CENTCOM), US forces intercepted a sanctioned ship linked to Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet”.

• The ship, identified as the Sevan, was part of a 19-vessel “shadow fleet” transporting Iranian oil and gas products to foreign markets, the US military said.
• Iran executed a man convicted of being a member of the armed group Jaish al-Adl and carrying out attacks on Iranian security forces, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

War diplomacy

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by phone that Tehran would not enter “imposed negotiations” under threats or blockade, an Iranian government statement said.
• Pezeshkian said the United States should first remove “operational obstacles”, including its blockade on Iranian ports, before negotiators can lay any groundwork to resolve the conflict.
• Iran’s IRNA news agency is reporting that Araghchi and his Egyptian counterpart, Badr Abdelatty, “discussed and exchanged views on issues related to diplomacy and ceasefire, as well as the latest regional developments”.
• Araghchi also had a call with Turkiye’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, but the agency did not provide further details.

In the US

• Trump told reporters in Florida that he scrapped the envoys’ visit because the talks involved too much travel and expense to consider an inadequate offer from the Iranians. After the diplomatic trip was called off, Iran “offered a lot, but not enough”, Trump said.
• On Truth Social, he wrote that there was “tremendous infighting and confusion” within Iran’s leadership.
• “Nobody knows who is in charge, including them,” he posted. “Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!”
• Trump said that the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ dinner on Saturday was unrelated to the Iran war. “It’s not going to deter me from winning the war in Iran. I don’t know if that had anything to do with it, I really don’t think so, based on what we know,” Trump told reporters.

In Lebanon

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered troops to attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, his office said, further testing the three-week ceasefire.
• Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health’s emergency operations centre said two Israeli raids on a truck and a motorcycle in the town of Yohmor al-Shaqif in Nabatieh district killed four people, the Lebanese National News Agency reported.
• Also in southern Lebanon, Israeli soldiers reportedly blew up buildings in the city of Bint Jbeil.

Trump says Tehran did not make satisfactory offer after Iranian foreign minister travelled to Pakistan to present a framework to mediators to end the war.

Tehran, Iran – Iran’s authorities and state media project that they are less interested than before the war in negotiations with the United States if they go beyond their accepted terms, as mediated talks failed to materialise in Pakistan.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met senior Pakistani officials in Islamabad on Saturday and left for Oman, to be later bound for Russia. The top diplomat, who was not joined by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf like in a previous round of negotiations earlier this month, said he was “yet to see if the US is truly serious about diplomacy”.

Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had been expected in Pakistan after the White House said Iran asked for a second round of direct negotiations, but US President Donald Trump cancelled the trip and said, “we have all the cards, they have none” while reiterating his claim about “infighting and confusion” among Iran’s leadership.

“If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!” Trump wrote in an online post, continuing to put the onus on Iran’s leadership.

Amid a state-imposed near-total internet shutdown in Iran, nearing two months, officials and the supporters of the Islamic Republic emphasise that they are united in opposing any concessions to Trump.

The US president said earlier this week he was in “no rush” to reach an agreement with Iranian leadership, whom he claimed, without evidence, were “fighting like cats and dogs” among themselves.

Since Trump highlighted the perceived fractures, military, security, judiciary and government authorities in Iran have been releasing synchronised messages with near-identical wording to proclaim absolute unity.

The messages, circulated through state media and even using similar graphics and fonts but with different colours, claim that everyone in the country is “revolutionary” and exercises “complete obedience” to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

The authorities also claim that more than 30 million people – a third of Iran’s total population – have registered in a state-run campaign to express readiness to “sacrifice” their lives if necessary, but they have not provided any documentation to prove this.

The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Saturday afternoon that armed forces would retaliate against the US if it continues its “blockade, banditry and piracy” in Iran’s southern waters.

“We are prepared and determined to monitor the behaviour and movement of the enemies in the region and maintain management and control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and to inflict more severe damages on the American-Zionist enemies in case of another aggression,” read its statement.

The IRGC on Saturday took a state television presenter to broadcast near two vessels seized days earlier in the strait to report that Iran exercised “total control” over the waterway.

Iranian authorities continue to call on their supporters, including paramilitary forces, to take to the streets every night in order to maintain control.

In a rally in downtown Tehran on Friday night, Meysam Motiei, a prominent state-backed religious singer with links to the supreme leader’s office, told the crowds that anyone stuck in factional infighting during times of war “has not grown up yet”.

“If anyone from any group or faction, especially in the name of being a revolutionary, tries to disturb the unity of the people, they will get a slap in the face by the people,” he asserted.

But in ultraconservative Mashhad in northeast Iran, where a shrine considered holy for Shia Muslims is located along with powerful religious and economic foundations, some were still preaching aggressively against the possibility of former reformist and moderate leaders retaking power.

“They have instructed us to keep unity with incumbent officials, not these two people,” a speaker told a gathering crowd on Friday night in a clip shared by state-linked media, in reference to former President Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif.

“We are not afraid of B-2s and B-52s; we are afraid of dishonourables who have no concern for the homeland. Wherever Trump makes a mess, Zarif comes and blabbers away,” he said, about the diplomat who led nuclear talks that led to a now-expired landmark accord with world powers in 2015.

Iran’s judiciary continues to execute dissidents, and on Saturday announced the hanging of Erfan Kiani, who was arrested during the nationwide protests in January when thousands were killed.

The judiciary described him as “Mossad’s hired knife-wielder” and said he was accused of destroying property, arson and more in downtown Tehran.

No nuclear talks?

Iranian state media reports indicate that the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports is undermining the ceasefire extended by Trump and allowing the more hardline voices in Tehran to come out on top.

The Tasnim and Fars news agencies, affiliated with the IRGC, argued against allowing any nuclear negotiations to take place with the US, even though Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu started the war with the predominant goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. Tehran has consistently stressed that its nuclear programme is peaceful, although some Iranian leaders have called for the development of a bomb.

“The negotiations with the US are strictly to end the war, and Iran does not consider the nuclear issue to be part of the talks,” Tasnim said, claiming that time was not on Washington’s side due to the tumult in global markets resulting from the war.

Khamenei has not directly commented on more negotiations, but Ali Khezrian, another representative of Tehran in the hardline-dominated parliament, told state media on Thursday that Khamenei was “opposed to any extension of negotiations” under threats from the US and Israel.

Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz earlier this week adopted Trump’s apocalyptic messaging, and said armed forces are awaiting a greenlight from the US to “return Iran to the age of darkness and stone by blowing up central energy and electricity facilities and crushing national economic infrastructure”.

There are currently three US aircraft carriers and their supporting vessels in the Middle East region, according to the US military, which marks the first time this has happened since the buildup to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

But Mahmoud Nabavian, a senior black-turban cleric and hardline member of parliament who was a part of the large Iranian delegation in the first round of talks, said it was a “strategic mistake” to even include the nuclear issue.

He told state media that this allowed the US to raise demands like a 20-year suspension of enrichment, and shipping Iran’s buried high-enriched uranium abroad.

“From now on, entering any negotiations with the US is pure damage and has no interest for the Iranian nation,” he said earlier this week, adding that oil sales were providing the government with a “full hand”.

Mohammad Saeedi, the Friday prayer imam of ultraconservative Qom, located south of Tehran, said in reference to the US that it would be “meaningless and unfair to sit down behind the negotiating table with a symbol of corruption”.

Civilian infrastructure in danger

The government of relatively moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian has signalled concern about the potential impacts of systematic targeting of more civilian infrastructure, especially power plants, in case the war continues.

“We have a simple request from the people: to reduce their consumption of power and energy. For now, we have no need for these dear people to sacrifice their lives, but we need to control consumption,” the president said on Saturday. “They have hit our infrastructure and blockaded us, so the people become dissatisfied.”

Mohammad Allahdad, the head of Tavanir, the government-owned mother company for development and operation of Iran’s power grid, told state television that it would pay a reward to citizens who would report any theft and illegal use of electricity.

First Vice President Mohammadreza Aref said, “We will build Iran back more glorious” through unity after previous infrastructure attacks that hit oil and gas facilities, steel producers, petrochemical firms, aluminium factories, energy facilities, as well as airports, naval ports, bridges and railway networks.

The government reopened Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport for limited foreign-bound flights on Saturday, including those taking people to the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia, despite the potential of war resuming.

Trump later suggests that next talks will be over phone, saying ‘If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!’

United States President Donald Trump has announced that his envoys would not be travelling to Pakistan for talks with Iranian officials after Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left the country.

The US president told news outlet Fox News that he had ordered Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to ditch plans to visit the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, for the possible talks, despite his earlier claims that Iran was “making an offer” aimed at resolving the two-month conflict.

“I said, ‘Nope, you’re not making an 18-hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you’re not going to be making any more 18-hour flights to sit around talking about nothing,” Trump said.

In any case, Araghchi had already departed Islamabad, the first destination of a three-leg tour including Oman and Russia. Iran’s state-run Press TV confirmed he left on Saturday after meeting Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.

Posting on X, Araghchi said he had shared “Iran’s position concerning workable framework to permanently end the war on Iran” with Pakistani officials. “Have yet to see if the U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy,” he added.

Later, Trump appeared to say on social media that any future talks would be taking place over the phone. “If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!” he wrote, adding that nobody knew who was in charge in Iran and that there was “tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership’”.

Reporting from Washington, Al Jazeera’s Rosiland Jordan said Trump’s comments suggested that the US did not see “any yielding on the Iranians part”.

She said that his talk of holding “all the cards” appeared to allude to “the US naval blockade, as well as the ongoing presence of more than 50,000 troops in the region, ready to resume combat operations”.

The pressure to strike a deal to permanently end the war has mounted amid an ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments transit.

Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Saturday that they had no intention of ending their effective blocking of the waterway, which has thrown energy markets into turmoil, according to the news agency AFP.

Asked by US media outlet Axios whether the cancelled trip by his envoys meant a resumption of hostilities, Trump said: “No. It doesn’t mean that. We haven’t thought about it yet.”

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Araghchi had arrived in Muscat on Saturday for meetings with Omani officials. He is also expected to travel on to Russia to discuss efforts to end the war, which the United States and Israel began against Iran on February 28.

An Iranian delegation led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad. Iran outlined its proposal to Pakistani mediators as part of efforts to revive direct negotiations with the US.

Authors: Rahul Mishra & Harshit Prajapati

The US-Israel conflict with Iran dragged almost every country into a phase of energy insecurity. While Iran’s neighboring countries are directly affected by the armed conflict, immediate regions too have not remained insulated from the ongoing conflict. For India, the conflict has demonstrated the implications of getting caught in the crossfire of a conflict in its vicinity. Two particular incidents—the US sinking of the Iranian warship IRIS Dena in the waters off the coast of Sri Lanka (just 40 nautical miles away) and the reported firing of two ballistic missiles towards the joint UK-US base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean—serve as a grim reminder about a conflict spiraling in India’s maritime backyard in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

For decades, the Indian Ocean region has remained largely peaceful, away from any direct impact of a conflict in a neighboring region or any major power conflict with a regional impact. The two above-mentioned incidents highlight the need for littoral states of the IOR to have a regional security mechanism to deal with any crisis in the region in a more cohesive and coordinated fashion. Being one of the major stakeholders in the region, it is incumbent upon India to foster meaningful and substantial cooperation with IOR littoral states through regional mechanisms such as the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). It would be a timely exercise to strive to move beyond non-traditional security cooperation mechanisms to protect the shared maritime space, especially during such conflicts.

The sinking of IRIS Dena in the IOR when it was returning to its home after participating in the International Fleet Review and multinational exercise MILAN, hosted by India, serves as a major strategic lesson to countries of the region. Since the International Fleet Reviews are an acknowledgement by the regional and global peers of the host country’s sovereignty and maritime supremacy in its neighborhood, the sinking of an Iranian warship does not augur well for India’s claim as a net security provider or preferred security partner in the IOR.

Additionally, Iran’s launch of two ballistic missiles, which failed to strike the designated target, towards the Diego Garcia base, reflects the risk of a distant war reaching India’s maritime backyard. The 2025 decolonization agreement between the UK and Mauritius enabled the transfer of the Chagos archipelago, including Diego Garcia Island, to Mauritius; however, the UK retained access to the Diego Garcia military base for 99 years. Thus, in the event of a conflict, Diego Garcia, as the joint UK-US base, may become a target, thereby drawing the war into the Indian maritime backyard. With the escalating conflict with Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthi rebels, the possibility of repetition of such an incident cannot be ruled out.

During the Cold War, India and the IOR countries endeavored to halt the foreign military presence in the IOR, as illustrated by the UNGA Resolution 2832 of 1971, which sought to establish the Indian Ocean Zone of Peace (IOZOP). However, the regional countries failed to implement the declaration because of resistance from the major powers. In 2016, India attempted to revive implementation of the 1971 resolution but failed to garner significant attention from the IOR countries, putting aside any major power.

Rather than seeking IOZOP through restrictions on foreign military presence, India should strengthen its naval capabilities, especially its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms. Earlier, in 2018, India envisioned a 200-ship fleet by 2027; however, in 2026, the goal was revised to a 200-plus-ship fleet by 2035. Despite the induction of new platforms, this goal seems ambitious, as older platforms retire faster than new ones are inducted, especially given the constrained budget allocation to the Indian Navy.

A sizable portion of India’s submarine fleet is aging. The current force comprising Russian-origin Kilo-class submarines and German-origin Type 209 submarines has been in service for decades and is set to retire soon. Although the induction of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine Aridhaman in April 2026 and Arighaat in August 2024 strengthened India’s nuclear triad, the pace of induction of conventional submarines remains lagging. Project 75I, aimed at developing advanced diesel-electric submarines, was originally set in motion in 2007; however, its deal with the manufacturer—a German firm—has yet to be signed.

Earlier, it was planned that India would expand its fleet of long-range maritime reconnaissance Boeing P-8I aircraft from 12 to 28. But then the plan to expand the fleet to 28 P-8I aircraft was reduced to 20-22 due to constrained spending. Additionally, the Indian Navy only possesses 15 MQ-9B high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) drones.

Therefore, if India needs to entrench its position as a preferred security partner in the IOR and realize its vision of Security and Growth for all in the Region (SAGAR)—upgraded to Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions (MAHASAGAR) in 2025—in the IOR, then it needs to support its normative framework with military capabilities.

Given India’s lack of naval capabilities—across all three mediums (air, surface, and undersea)—to conduct persistent surveillance of the enormous IOR (spanning more than 70 million square kilometers), India should collaborate with littoral countries to conduct surveillance in the IOR through regional mechanisms such as the CSC and the IONS. Presently, cooperation in these forums is largely limited to countering non-traditional security threats, such as piracy, trafficking, maritime disasters, etc. Challenges such as differing threat perceptions, disparity in naval capabilities, and a lack of regional consciousness hinder meaningful and substantial cooperation.

However, if the littoral countries of the IOR seek to avoid getting caught in the crossfire of a distant conflict, such as the present one, they need to move beyond non-traditional security cooperation to develop a common understanding of how to protect the shared maritime space in the IOR, especially during such conflicts. India, being the most militarily equipped country in the IOR, should take the lead in forging the collaborative efforts to conduct persistent surveillance in the IOR, as maritime wars do not respect geographical boundaries.