insider

Michele Spagnuolo allegedly used insider information to profit from bets on people on Google’s most-searched list.

A Google software engineer has been charged with fraud by US authorities after allegedly using insider information to win more than $1.2m in bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket.

Michele Spagnuolo, an Italian citizen residing in Switzerland, is accused of using confidential information to wager on the results of Google’s annual most-searched list, according to a criminal complaint unsealed on Wednesday.

US prosecutors accuse Spagnuolo of using an account named “AlphaRaccoon” to make trades on various markets linked to the results of Google’s 2025 Year in Search.

The total sum of the bets was approximately $2.75m, according to the complaint, filed in federal court in New York.

Among the bets, Spagnuolo successfully predicted that indie pop musician d4vd would top the list for the most-searched for person last year, hours after accessing confidential data at Google, according to prosecutors.

Spagnuolo, 36, faces charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering.

“Today’s charges reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets,” US Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton said in a statement.

“Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted,” Clayton added.

Bets on Maduro’s capture

Google said in a statement that it is working with law enforcement and that using confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of company policy.

Spagnuolo has been placed on leave, according to a Google spokesperson.

A Polymarket spokesperson said the company had worked closely with the US Attorney’s Office on the investigation and that the firm “is the only prediction platform to date whose cooperation has led to insider trading charges in the United States”.

“We are committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets as well as enforcing our rules and working with our regulators and law enforcement,” the spokesperson added.

Last month, a US soldier was charged with using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket regarding the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Prosecutors accuse Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, of cashing in on the US operation against Maduro, to the tune of more than $400,000.

The rise of Péter Magyar marks one of the most significant political shifts in Hungary’s modern history. His victory over Viktor Orbán ends a 16 year era defined by centralized power and strained relations with the European Union.

What makes Magyar’s ascent particularly striking is that he did not emerge from outside the system, but from within it.

From insider to challenger

Magyar was once closely associated with Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party and initially echoed many of its political themes, including nationalism and scepticism toward liberal European norms.

His turning point came in 2024, when he publicly broke with the government and sharply criticised corruption and the concentration of power. This positioned him as a credible reformist with insider knowledge of how the system operated.

Dismantling an illiberal model

Orbán’s “illiberal democracy” was built on gradually consolidating control over key state institutions, including the judiciary and media. Over time, checks and balances weakened, allowing the ruling party to dominate political life.

Magyar’s understanding of this structure allowed him to directly challenge its foundations, particularly by focusing on corruption and institutional accountability, issues that resonated with voters.

Building a broad coalition

Over two years of campaigning, Magyar evolved politically. He travelled extensively, engaging with voters across the country and broadening his appeal beyond a narrow ideological base.

According to Zsolt Enyedi, Magyar became a unifying figure for pro democracy forces, offering a platform that different groups could rally around. This ability to bridge divides proved crucial in defeating a deeply entrenched political machine.

A more pragmatic approach to Europe

Magyar is not an uncritical supporter of the European Union, but he is expected to take a more constructive approach than his predecessor. Economic realities, particularly the need to unlock suspended EU funds, will push his government toward cooperation with Brussels.

This creates a pragmatic dynamic where reform is driven not only by political vision but also by financial necessity.

A difficult transition ahead

The transition of power is likely to be complex. Magyar has already expressed concern about actions taken by elements of the outgoing administration, suggesting resistance within the system he now seeks to reform.

Rebuilding institutions, restoring trust, and dismantling entrenched networks will take time and political capital.

Analysis

Péter Magyar’s victory highlights a key dynamic in political change within entrenched systems: transformation often comes from insiders who understand the machinery of power.

However, electoral success is only the first step. The deeper challenge lies in restructuring institutions that have been shaped over more than a decade. This process is inherently slow and politically sensitive.

Magyar must navigate competing pressures. Domestically, he faces a conservative and somewhat eurosceptic electorate. Internationally, he is expected to repair relations with the European Union and align more closely with its standards.

This balancing act will define his leadership. While his victory opens the door to democratic renewal, the outcome will depend on whether he can convert political momentum into lasting institutional change.

With information from Reuters.