Inflation

Canada’s economy has rebounded sharply in the second quarter after six months of virtually no growth, aided by a strong jump in exports and solid domestic demand, though a new round of tariffs from the United States brings renewed uncertainty.

The economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter, the fastest rate since 2023, after a revised 0.3 percent increase in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said on Friday.

The upward revision to first-quarter growth means Canada was not in a technical recession, usually defined as two straight quarters of contraction.

Healthy domestic demand, led by consumer spending and business investment, signals the economy is slowly brushing off the impacts of more than 18 months of US import tariffs that upended North American supply chains and increased costs.

Renewed tariff dispute

A strong domestic consumption and expenditure pattern puts Canada on a firm footing to withstand a new 50 percent US import tariff that President Donald Trump imposed this week on $20bn of Canadian exports. Canada retaliated with its own countermeasures on US imports.

“It seems like households and businesses were beginning to find ways of navigating the trade-related uncertainty before the latest round of tariffs,” Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, wrote in a note.

“While it helps that the economy was on stronger footing heading into August, the fresh wave of protectionism injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the outlook,” Mendes said.

Michael Davenport, senior Canada economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note to Al Jazeera that while the gross domestic product (GDP) growth was along expected lines, “the economy is set to slow in the coming quarters amid escalating US-Canada trade policy uncertainty, new bilateral tariffs, and a shrinking population”.

The Canadian dollar weakened slightly after the GDP data, with the loonie trading down 0.01 percent at 72.17 US cents.

On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 0.8 percent for the period ended June, from an upwardly revised 0.1 percent in the previous quarter.

Second-quarter annualised growth was higher than the Bank of Canada’s July forecast of 2.5 percent growth.

Higher exports were one of the main contributing factors for the second-quarter growth, with outbound shipments growing 3.6 percent, the biggest increase in over three years, Statistics Canada (StatsCan) said.

Stronger household spending

Final domestic demand, the sum of all consumption and capital spending and a crucial metric to assess domestic health, rebounded to 1 percent in the second quarter, from a minor contraction in the first quarter.

Domestic demand has been muted for several quarters as consumers and businesses remain cautious while Canada navigates its trade war with the US.

But household final consumption expenditure, the main indicator of consumer spending, rose 0.8 percent, its highest level in three quarters, highlighting stronger household spending. This was mainly driven by higher wages and government benefits, economists said.

Business investment, or business gross fixed capital formation, sprang to a solid 2.3 percent growth in the second quarter from a contraction of 1.3 percent, the first time in the last year and a half that business investment has expanded.

That growth was led by investment in both residential and non-residential structures, machinery and equipment, StatsCan said.

However, the general gross fixed capital formation, essentially government expenditure for creating assets, continued to decline with a second-quarter contraction of 2.9 percent, after shrinking 2.6 percent in the previous quarter.

On a month-to-month basis, GDP for June grew 0.3 percent against a forecast of 0.2 percent, and an advance indicator showed that the economy was largely flat in July, the statistics agency said.

Marking his 100th day in the job, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Wyoming that the US economy has strengthened rather than weakened under recent shocks, that the labour market is consistent with full employment, and that inflation remains the central bank’s dominant concern.

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Warsh declined to say what he would do next month, but he removed most of the arguments against acting and bolstered the ones in favour of a rate hike.

“For my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened,” Warsh stated.

“One indicator of strength is how well an economy holds up to shocks. On that score, both Main Street and Wall Street have been remarkably resilient,” he added.

On inflation, Warsh noted that the PCE index stood at 3.7% over twelve months and 4.1% over six, and 54% of the basket’s components rose by more than 3% over the past year, against 32% in the two decades before the pandemic.

Summer readings that beat expectations “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” Warsh stated.

The Federal Reserve Chair’s conclusion was blunt: “the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices.”

The standard set was equally direct. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do,” Warsh declared.

That assessment matters because it eliminates the case for supporting growth with further stimulus and potentially opens the door for restrictive measures as markets moved in response.

At the time of writing, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 0.5% from its Friday high to 4.67% and the 30-year dropped around 0.9% to 5.16%, while the dollar index rose 0.4% from the intraday low to roughly 99.4 points.

Traders raised the implied probability of a 0.25% hike at the 15 and 16 September Fed meeting to 55%, from around 35% before Warsh’s speech.

Performance of the US economy

Warsh opened his speech with what he called a hinge point in history, arguing that artificial intelligence has advanced faster than even its advocates predicted.

Annualised AI token sales at the two leading labs alone exceed $100 billion, he said, up more than 500% in a year.

AI is “a new variable, potentially a new factor of production,” raising questions the Fed cannot answer yet such as whether it will lift productivity and when, whether it complements or replaces labour, and where the returns will ultimately land.

A new Federal Reserve task force on productivity and jobs is examining it, though he stressed its recommendations will have no bearing on current policy decisions.

Warsh then listed extensive evidence for his positive outlook on the US economy.

Business investment in equipment and intangibles growing at around 9%, its fastest since 2021, with more than half of this year’s capital expenditure growth attributable to the AI buildout.

S&P 500 profits went up more than 20% over the year, credit spreads are near historic lows and banks are easing lending standards. Housing and agriculture are strained, Warsh acknowledged, but on balance he “would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”

Unemployment at 4.1% is low by historical standards, with jobless claims near their lowest in decades, leaving inflation as the outlier.

No forward guidance

The Federal Reserve Chair devoted a substantial section to defending his refusal to signal future moves, a stance that has drawn criticism since he took office in May.

Forward guidance was adopted during the 2008 crisis by colleagues including himself, he said, and was essential then, but “the practice has overstayed its welcome” and now “risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity.”

Warsh warned of a hall-of-mirrors problem in which markets read the Fed while the Fed reads markets, leaving both blind to new developments.

“We should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade,” he said, adding that the costs of such errors fall not on “financial high-fliers” but on households facing high inflation or insecure jobs.

Warsh also rejected calls to publish an explicit reaction function, arguing economic knowledge does not permit a mechanical rule.

Instead he set out six principles: interrogate incoming data rather than trust stale figures, accept that judging supply against demand is imprecise; treat the 2% PCE target as firm and fixed; pursue both mandates without treating them as a trade-off; rely on short-term rates rather than unconventional tools; and remember that money itself matters.

“I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision,” Warsh said in closing.

The decision comes on 16 September at the next Fed meeting.

Caracas, August 26, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan opposition lawmaker Antonio Ecarri has proposed dollarizing Venezuela’s economy and abolishing the bolívar, the country’s official currency, as a way to “stop devaluation” and “protect citizens’ purchasing power.”

Ecarri, a National Assembly Deputy from Alianza del Lápiz, has hired US economist Steve Hanke as an advisor for his plan to change the national currency.

“We are working on a serious dollarization proposal to put the brakes on the infernal devaluation that is destroying people’s wages. Enough of bureaucracy financing public spending by confiscating the private property and labor of Venezuelans,” Ecarri said.

Hanke, a Johns Hopkins University academic who served in the Reagan administration, has advised countries such as Ecuador and Zimbabwe on similar initiatives. In an article for business magazine Fortune, he confirmed that he has already drafted “a bill for the Venezuelan parliament.”

According to the US economist, the transition would begin with the establishment of a fixed USD-bolívar exchange rate before converting bolívar-denominated accounts to US dollars. The Venezuelan Central Bank (BCV) would retain administrative functions but lose the ability to issue money or set interest rates.

Hanke previously revealed that he has held meetings with US Treasury and White House officials to discuss an international strategy aimed at strengthening the US currency through dollarization of foreign countries, currency boards, and other instruments.

Ecarri’s proposal drew significant criticism, with Venezuelan National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez announcing “an investigation process to establish the offenses committed” by the opposition lawmaker. Ecarri was also removed from his position as chairman of the Venezuela-US Parliamentary Friendship Group, a post he had held for just two months.

According to a published statement, the opposition deputy allegedly violated the legislature’s internal procedures as well as the constitutional provision establishing that “the monetary unit of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is the bolívar” and that the Central Bank “is the public entity that, exclusively and mandatorily, exercises monetary policy.”

Rodríguez also described the proposal during a parliamentary session as “absurd and outrageous.” Ecarri, however, defended his stance and decision to hire Hanke, whom he called “an authority in the field and a personal adviser of mine for some time.”

The opposition lawmaker argues that Venezuela is “at a key moment” to debate the adoption of a different currency. 

“The country is already de facto dollarized, but those who continue to receive their wages in bolívars that lose value every day are our teachers, nurses, workers, and pensioners,” he stressed. “The government itself has just approved a law allowing rents to be paid in foreign currency.”

Ecarri claimed that growing oil revenues would supply Venezuela with enough foreign currency to adopt the dollarization plan, which he argued “should be accompanied by a Macroeconomic Stabilization Fund to protect the value of the currency against potential external shocks in the United States.”

Since 2018, the Venezuelan government has tolerated the circulation of US dollars amid efforts to control inflation. Though the bolívar remains the official currency, businesses and retailers establish cost structures and prices using US dollars. Venezuelan authorities have also fixed monthly bonus payments, which constitute virtually the entire income for workers and pensioners, in dollars, which are then paid in bolívars using the exchange rate established daily by the BCV.

The Central Bank has continually devalued the bolívar, with the USD-bolívar exchange rate growing by more than 150 percent since the beginning of 2026. The currency depreciation is a key driver of inflation. Prices rose by 19.9 percent in July, and accumulated 12-month inflation presently stands at 576 percent.

Financial authorities have likewise been unable to control a parallel, speculation-driven exchange rate which currently stands 15-20 percent above the official one.

Despite the persistent devaluation-inflation issues, formal dollarization is opposed by most Venezuelan policy analysts, including government critics. Economist Asdrúbal Oliveros warned that dollarization would be an effective mechanism for drastically reducing inflation but “is not the best solution,” since it would be a “nearly irreversible” decision that would limit the country’s monetary policy options.

Right-wing economist José Guerra likewise considers dollarization “a straitjacket” for an oil-producing country. “Without a central bank issuing currency, an external shock will cause deflation, an inability to pay salaries and finance public spending, as happens in Ecuador. It also creates a high dependence on the US and is a one-way path,” he said.

Rodrigo Cabezas, former finance minister under President Hugo Chávez, similarly expressed his “complete opposition” to dollarization, stating that it is “unreasonable” for a country to surrender essential economic tools, losing control over foreign exchange policies and interest rates.

For his part, economist and former United Socialist Party (PSUV) legislator Tony Boza contended that Washington wants to push dollarization in Latin America to “stave off its economic downfall.” Boza went on to criticize the acting Delcy Rodríguez government and the National Assembly for subordinating economic policies and the country’s national resources to US and foreign capital interests.

Edited by Ricardo Vaz in Caracas.