Iran has reasserted its control over the Strait of Hormuz, warning that foreign commercial and military vessels will be targeted, if they do not comply with regulations governing passage through the strategic waterway.
The announcement on Saturday came after the United States signalled that President Donald Trump was close to a decision on a potential deal with Iran, but Tehran denied an agreement had been reached.
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“The management of the Strait of Hormuz is exercised with full authority by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the operational headquarters of Iran’s armed forces, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said in a statement reported by Iranian media on Saturday.
“All ships, commercial vessels, and tankers are only required to travel through the designated routes and obtain permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] Navy. Any violation of these regulations will seriously jeopardise the security of their traffic,” it added.
Iran also issued a warning to foreign military forces operating in the area, saying any attempt to interfere with maritime management or shipping movements would trigger a response.
On Friday, Trump met with advisers in the White House Situation Room and said a “final determination” on a possible deal with Iran would soon be made. But no statement followed the meeting.
US sources had told the AFP news agency the deal was waiting on Trump’s sign-off, but he made no decision after Friday’s meeting.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said on Friday that while messages continue to be exchanged “no final agreement has been reached” on a deal with the US.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) posted on social media that American forces “remain present and vigilant across the region”.
The efforts to reach a deal were thrown into question this week by US strikes on the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, countered by retaliatory Iranian fire.
Iran’s IRNA state news agency said air defences shot down a drone “belonging to the US-Zionist aggressor enemy” on Saturday, citing a statement from the army.
Trump said his priorities in any deal include Iran agreeing to never develop nuclear weapons, and the reopening of the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
“President Trump will only make a deal that is good for America and satisfies his red lines,” a White House official told AFP, adding: “Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.”
Trump ‘betraying diplomacy’
Also on Saturday, Mohsen Rezaei, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a social media post that Trump was “betraying diplomacy for the third time” by continuing the US naval blockade in the strait, and making what he described as “excessive demands in negotiations”.
In a social media post on Friday, Trump said Tehran would remove mines from the strait and end its closure of the waterway with “no tolls”, while the US would lift its blockade.
Both countries would coordinate on removing and destroying Iran’s enriched uranium, he said, adding that “no money will be exchanged, until further notice”.
Iran’s Fars news agency, however, cited sources as saying Tehran was demanding “the immediate release of $12bn” in frozen assets before moving to the next phase of negotiations.
On the toll-free reopening of Hormuz, the sources said “no such clause appears in the text of the agreement”, while Trump’s comment on destroying Iran’s nuclear material “is fundamentally baseless”.
Iran’s ISNA news agency cited legislator Alireza Salimi as saying a plan “to implement Iran’s management and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz will soon be approved by parliament”.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the US blockade remains in place, and its ships “are receiving warnings from CENTCOM to stop and not cross the blockade line”.
The US and Iran have agreed in principle to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for Tehran’s commitment to dispose of its highly enriched uranium, a US official said, according to a report by The New York Times on Sunday.
The official said that the agreement has not yet been signed and remains subject to final approval by US President Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, a process that could take several days, noting that the method for disposing of Iran’s highly enriched uranium is still being negotiated.
The proposed deal does not address Iran’s missile stockpile nor include a moratorium on uranium enrichment, the official said, adding that these issues are expected to be handled in future rounds of talks.
According to a Fox News report on Sunday, the official suggested that the US could consider “significant accommodations” on sanctions relief if Iran agrees to make similar concessions regarding its enriched uranium stockpile.
“Our plan is to deal with all of their stockpile of the enriched material,” the official said, adding that Washington sees Tehran making “serious accommodations” not previously seen in earlier negotiations, according to the report.
The official also rejected the idea of any “tolling” mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, saying such an arrangement would not be acceptable and had not been proposed by either side, the report noted.
According to a separate CBS News report, the official said the administration views the emerging agreement as stronger than the 2015 nuclear deal reached under former US President Barack Obama, which allowed uranium enrichment up to certain levels.
As part of the agreement, the US would lift its blockade on vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports. The official said the US Central Command and Gulf partners would coordinate to ensure safe passage, stressing this should not be viewed as a toll system.
The official also said US Vice President JD Vance, Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner have been involved in the talks, adding that Washington is seeking to include all regional allies in the process, the report added.
A top US official says Oman should know that Washington ‘will aggressively target’ actors that facilitate tolls in waterway.
Published On 28 May 202628 May 2026
The United States has warned that it would “aggressively” impose sanctions on Oman if it helps Iran establish a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying President Donald Trump’s threats against the Gulf ally.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that Washington will “not tolerate” either country imposing fees on commercial ships in the strategic waterway.
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“Oman, in particular, should know that the US Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved — directly or indirectly — in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized,” Bessent said in a social media post.
“All nations should reject outright any efforts by Iran to disrupt the free flow of commerce. Tehran’s days of terrorizing the region and the world are over.”
The statement comes less than 24 hours after President Trump threatened to bomb Oman, a key US ally known for its neutrality and mediation efforts in regional crises, including the war between the US and Iran.
While Iran has suggested that the governments in Tehran and Muscat could jointly manage the Hormuz Strait, Oman has not said that it is seeking control over the waterway, parts of which flow through its territory.
It is not clear what is driving Washington’s recent posture toward Oman. It is highly unusual for the US to threaten sanctions and military action against a close security and economic partner.
Since the US and Israel started bombing Iran without direct provocation on February 28, Iran has closed the strait and claimed sovereignty over it.
Around 20 percent of the world’s oil flowed through Hormuz before the conflict, so the Iranian blockade has put a major strain on energy supplies, sending prices soaring.
The US and Iran have been indirectly negotiating to reach an agreement for a comprehensive end to the war, and control over the Hormuz Strait has emerged as a major point of disagreement.
Trump has stressed that the strait must be a free passageway.
When asked whether he would accept joint Iranian-Omani control over the strait in the short term, the US president told reporters on Wednesday: “Nobody is going to control it. It’s international waters, and Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we will have to blow them up.”
Ali Bagheri, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Thursday that Tehran will not allow Hormuz to be a source of insecurity for the country.
“The powers that have used this passage against Iran’s security must be held accountable,” he was quoted as saying by Iran’s public television.
Bagheri added that Iran seeks to “establish a just order that negates hegemony and domination and strengthens trust and cooperation” in the region.
May 28 (UPI) — The U.S. Treasury announced late Wednesday that it has sanctioned an Iranian entity, newly created to oversee and manage the Strait of Hormuz, as the Trump administration seeks to force Tehran to relinquish control over the vital energy trade route.
The strait has been an issue of contention between the United States and Iran, which are locked in negotiations to end the war.
Iran restricted navigation of the strait after the United States and Israel attacked the country in late February, igniting the war. Washington responded by imposing a military blockade of Iran’s ports, cutting it off from maritime trade.
Since imposing the restrictions, Iran has been adamant about maintaining control of the route, through which about one-fifth of the world’s energy trade flows. The Trump administration has repeatedly threatened that there will be free navigation of the strait again, one way or another.
The Treasury sanctioned the PGSA on Wednesday, accusing it of being an attempt by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to monetize the international waterway.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the mechanism in a statement as the Iranian military’s “latest attempt to extort global maritime trade.”
Bessent said the Wednesday blacklisting was part of Economic Fury, the Treasury’s rebranding of President Donald Trump‘s maximum pressure campaign of sanctions and other trade measures from his first administration seeking to coerce a new nuclear weapons deal from Iran.
The United States has been tightening its financial vise on Iran since 2018 when Trump first imposed sanctions on Tehran after unilaterally withdrawing the United States from a multinational Obama-era nuclear accord aimed at preventing Iran from securing a nuclear weapon.
Trump reimposed the campaign following his return to the White House in early 2025. It was renamed following the start of the military operation Epic Fury that began Feb. 28.
Treasury officials said Wednesday that through the maximum pressure campaign, the Trump administration has denied Iran access to tens of billions of dollars’ worth of revenue.
The sanctions generally prohibit those named from accessing the U.S. financial system and bar U.S. persons and companies from doing business with them. They also expose foreign financial institutions that knowingly facilitate significant transactions for those sanctioned to potential secondary sanctions.
Sen. Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, had over the weekend called on Bessent to sanction the PGSA, stating the United States “must ensure every actor enabling the terrorist Iranian regime is held accountable.”
“I support the use of existing authorities to impose sanctions on the PGSA, its officers and any foreign entity that pays, processes or facilitates tolls to Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” he said in a statement.
Iran has rejected the notion that it is running a toll. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei has said that Iran charges fees to cover costs associated with navigational services and environmental protection measures.
Iranians rally after a ceasefire announcement at Enqhelab Square, in Tehran on April 8, 2026. Photo by Behnam Tofighi/UPI | License Photo
May 28 (UPI) — The U.S. military attacked Iran, Tehran confirmed early Thursday, as Iran announced retaliatory strikes of its own.
Iran targeted a U.S. air base at about 4:50 a.m. local time in response to the U.S. military striking presumed Iranian military assets near Bandar Abbas Airport in southern Iran.
“This response is a serious warning so that the enemy knows aggression will not go unanswered, and that in the event of a repeat, our response will be more decisive and the responsibility and consequences will lie with the aggressor,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement carried by Iranian state media.
The air base targeted and whether it sustained damage were not known. The U.S. military has yet to comment.
The announcement came as the Kuwait Army said its air defenses were confronting “hostile missile and drone attacks.” While the United States maintains a significant military presence in Kuwait, it was not immediately clear whether those attacks were related to the U.S.-Iran exchange.
Explosions were heard near Bandar Abbas, Iranian state news agency Tasnim reported earlier Thursday.
Citing an unidentified military source, the news agency said the U.S. attack followed the Iranian Navy firing shots toward a U.S. oil tanker that had turned off its radar system and intended to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The oil tanker reportedly ended its attempt to transit the vital energy maritime trade route.
Iran has been enforcing has been restricting access through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war, permitting only certain vessels through. The United States responded with a military blockade of Iran’s ports, cutting it off from sea-based trade.
The two sides have been in talks since a fragile cease-fire was agreed to last month, with Thursday’s U.S. strikes on Iran the second time it has attacked the country so far this week.
On Monday, the U.S. military attacked southern Iran, describing the strikes as “self-defensive” in nature.
The Trump administration has repeatedly stated that it intends to secure free navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, one way or another, though it would prefer to do so through diplomacy.
Iran’s control of Hormuz is reportedly one of its conditions in negotiations on ending the war. In response to reports carried by Iranian state media that Iran and Oman, which border either side of the Strait of Hormuz, are in talks over control of the choke point, President Donald Trump said the transit route will be open to all countries and under no government’s control.
“It’s international waters. Nobody’s going to control it. We’re going to watch over it. We’ll watch over it, but nobody’s going to control it. That’s part of the negotiation that we’re having,” he told reporters during a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday.
“And Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that. They’ll be fine.”
Muslims perform Eid al-Adha prayers at sunrise in Cairo, Egypt, on May 27, 2026. Photo by Ismael Mohamad/UPI | License Photo
May 25 (UPI) — Secretary of State Marco Rubio tamped down expectations Monday for progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz after signaling a day earlier that he might have “good news” within hours.
Speaking to reporters at India’s Palam Air Base in New Delhi on Monday, the United States’ top diplomat said an agreement was “still a work in progress.”
“We thought we might have some news last night, maybe today,” he said, adding the holdup is that it takes time to hear back from the Iranians.
“I’m very confident — we should all be very confident — that we’re either going to have a good agreement or we’re going to have to deal with it another way. We’d prefer to have a good agreement.”
The United States is seeking to have Iran restore shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz before negotiations enter a subsequent phase focused on Iran’s nuclear program.
Rubio said what is on the table for opening the strait is “pretty solid,” but there is “a very real, significant time limit” to negotiations on the nuclear issue.
“Hopefully, we can pull it off,” he said.
Rubio is in India until Tuesday to discuss energy security, trade and defense cooperation with senior Indian officials. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran negotiations have been ongoing through Pakistani and Qatari mediators.
After reporters that negotiations were edging toward completion, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson later Monday said that talks were focused on ending the war, with no discussions yet on its nuclear enrichment program, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
The spokesperson also voiced skepticism over U.S. reliability, stating there is no guarantee Washington will hold up its end of the agreement once one is reached.
Speaking alongside Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at a joint press conference on Sunday, Rubio said that he believed more news about the agreement would come from President Donald Trump.
“But I do think perhaps there is the possibility that over the next few hours the world will get some good news, at least with regards to the straits,” he said.
The on-again, off-again negotiations have been conducted amid a fragile cease-fire called in April in the war that began in late February.
Trump has sought a new agreement to prevent Iran from securing a nuclear weapon since 2018, when during his first administration he unilaterally withdrew the United States from a landmark Obama-era multinational nuclear accord called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Calling it “defective at its core,” Trump has criticized several aspects of the JCPOA, including its sunset provisions easing restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.
Critics have rebutted his accusations, saying that not all aspects of the JCPOA were to expire and that the expiring provisions afforded time were intended to afford time for further diplomacy.
The crisis caused by the US-Israel war on Iran has affected the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) at different levels.
Oman has barely felt any shock as its ports and terminals continue operating as usual. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been able to reroute some oil exports through terminals in Yanbu and Fujairah, respectively, to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, on the other hand, have been practically cut off from the global market and are facing the prospect of economic contraction.
Under these circumstances, the GCC states more than ever need to demonstrate unity and address the crisis through collective action. The issue of solidarity is not about showing benevolence to neighbours. It is about setting up mechanisms now that can diminish the consequences and value of any future threat of closure. It is about the survival of the whole idea of GCC unity and the leverage it has on the global scene.
Collective action, common interest
Even if some sort of agreement is reached between the warring sides today, the GCC will continue to suffer under the shadow of the nearly three-month closure. States face the risk of losing clients due to the risk of not fulfilling their obligations or being perceived as a risky supplier. Only a joint effort can stop a free fall.
So far, self-interested approaches are winning over collective action. For instance, the UAE’s exit from OPEC was largely driven by the perception of the Emirati leadership that the Strait of Hormuz crisis was an opportunity to grab greater oil market share.
If this trend of unilateral crisis response continues, it would have grave economic consequences for the whole GCC and threaten its existence. With no burden-sharing mechanism, Gulf countries would end up competing against each other in a zero-sum game. This would reduce the influence the GCC has as a regional bloc and diminish its ability to sway energy markets.
Up until now, there have been some demonstrations of solidarity in rhetoric. During the GCC consultative meeting in Jeddah on April 28, Gulf leaders attempted to show unity and discuss possible ways out of the crisis. The meeting led to discussions about what the GCC states could do in practical terms, yet there are still no signs that these discussions have moved beyond the expert level.
Nevertheless, there are practical steps the GCC can take now that could help address the present crisis and ensure stability in the face of future risks. One of them could be the introduction of swap arrangements.
Swap as an instrument of solidarity
There are three relevant swap mechanisms that the GCC could consider: physical, contractual and quality swap deals. Physical and contractual swap deals allow one party to deliver an equivalent commodity to fulfil a contract on behalf of another.
A quality swap, on the other hand, exchanges one grade or product for another to align the feedstock needs of refineries or optimise transport costs.
Thus, instead of Kuwaiti, Qatari or Bahraini cargo physically passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a buyer can receive an acceptable substitute at Yanbu, Fujairah, Duqm, Ras Markaz, Sohar, Qalhat, Singapore, India, Korea, Japan or Europe, while the parties involved settle the accounts through future delivery, cash compensation, product exchange, or a retained-volume fee.
The swap does not require the trapped commodity to move immediately. It requires a transparent title, valuation and reconciliation, so that a substitute commodity can be delivered to the end user.
The strongest swap deals, therefore, resemble clearing systems. They are most reliable when they are established before the crisis, but they can also be assembled during a crisis if the parties already have pre-existing experience of trading, a trusted customer base or alternative physical infrastructure to be utilised.
In fact, the swap deals are not something completely unfamiliar to the GCC member states. In 2013, when Egypt failed to fulfil its contractual gas obligations, Qatar agreed to export its own liquefied natural gas (LNG) directly to the customers that Egypt otherwise could not serve while it channelled its gas for domestic needs.
In 2021, the UAE’s Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) won a tender to swap 84,000 tonnes of Iraqi fuel oil for 30,000 tonnes of Grade B fuel oil and 33,000 tonnes of gas oil to supply to Lebanon. In 2024, the state-owned Oman LNG conducted about two swap tenders per month, with Atlantic cargoes originating from the United States delivered to Spain, while the company delivered its LNG to clients in Asia.
All of these examples show that Gulf countries and their national energy companies have the required expertise to carry out intra-GCC swaps.
The most practical way to implement such deals now would be to establish an energy swap facility through a coordinated clearing mechanism among national oil companies, major regional refiners, selected traders, insurers, banks and key Asian and European buyers.
Its function would be to match blocked obligations with delivery alternatives and to reconcile the value later.
Insurance for the future
The implementation of any swap arrangement would require substantive effort to operationalise, not to mention a high level of political will, trust and mutual determination. Moreover, at present, there are physical limitations before any arrangement, as the GCC infrastructure does not have the capacity to reroute export volumes that pass through the Strait of Hormuz completely.
In the immediate term, swap arrangements imply that one group of countries – Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE – would sacrifice a bit of income and market share to the advantage of the others, namely Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, by allocating part of their current export, storage or transport capacities. But in the longer term, all would benefit.
The critical call is on Saudi Arabia, which has the largest options to bypass Hormuz and provide the largest pool of deliverable crude. Its command of customer credibility, global familiarity with Saudi oil grades, Red Sea export infrastructure and Aramco’s trading capacity make it the main pillar of any future swap system.
Complementing its role as market regulator within OPEC/OPEC+ with the leadership within the GCC, Riyadh can help stabilise the market by covering priority cargoes for strategic buyers.
The UAE can also play a major role by utilising its export capacity through Fujairah, and so can Oman, which has crude storage capacity at Ras Markaz, refining capacity at Duqm, LNG experience and ports that can receive and dispatch cargoes without having to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
If such swap deals are implemented, they can strengthen the GCC unity and help the members avoid internal economic rivalry in the future. More importantly, they can encourage the launch of a larger regional infrastructure drive that would lessen dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and diminish its value as a geopolitical tool to be used against the Gulf.
If there are a well-functioning swap mechanism and infrastructure in place that can be used whenever a threat of closure is made, then clients would feel more confident in continuing their relationships with all Gulf suppliers. In the longer term, this could serve as the GCC’s insurance against any new turbulence in the region.
The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
WASHINGTON — President Trump said Saturday that the United States and Iran have agreed on the basic terms of an agreement to end the two countries’ nearly three-month-long war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“An Agreement has been largely negotiated,” Trump wrote in a social media post. “Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”
Iran’s state television network quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei as saying the draft pact will be a “framework agreement” that defers talks toward limiting Iran’s nuclear program until later. Trump did not mention the nuclear issue in his statement.
If that is the form the deal takes, it would represent at least a short-term concession from the president, who initially demanded a definitive end to Iran’s nuclear program as the price of peace.
Trump has also relaxed an earlier U.S. demand that Iran give up its right to enrich uranium and says he would be satisfied with a deal to “suspend” enrichment for 20 years.
Those signs of U.S. flexibility have raised alarm from Iran hawks, reportedly including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They say they fear Trump is so intent on restoring the flow of oil from the gulf that he might agree to a deal that falls far short of U.S. goals.
Mark Dubowitz, a leading critic of past agreements with Iran, said he worries that Trump might settle for “a foolish agreement” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“I’m concerned that the administration is looking to cut some ‘Phase One’ deal” in which Iran is given “significant sanctions relief in exchange for agreement to reopen the strait,” he said in an interview Friday. “I think that would be a foolish agreement. Iran would get real money, but they could continue to close the strait any time they wanted simply by making threats.”
Robert Kagan, a conservative foreign policy scholar at the Brookings Institution, wrote that a deal to reopen the strait while deferring the nuclear issue would amount to a U.S. “surrender.”
“On the present trajectory, Iran will emerge from the conflict many times stronger and more influential than it was before the war,” Kagan wrote in the Atlantic.
When the war began in February, Trump said he wanted not only to end Iran’s nuclear activities and destroy its ballistic missile program, but bring about regime change as well.
Instead, the nuclear talks have focused on narrower, more achievable goals: a “suspension” of nuclear enrichment for 20 years or less and removal or destruction of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, the essential ingredient for a nuclear weapon.
“A basic agreement shouldn’t be impossible to achieve,” said John W. Limbert, who worked on Iran policy at the State Department for three decades, and was one of the American hostages seized by Iranian militants in 1979. “The deal would be some kind of verifiable limits on the nuclear program in return for economic relief.”
“The fact that we’re talking about a suspension of all enrichment, and the question is whether it will be five years, 20 years or halfway in between — that’s important,” said Nate Swanson, an Iran expert who worked at the National Security Council under President Biden and Trump. “That sounds like you really have the basis for an agreement. … But don’t fool yourself to think that completely addresses the situation.”
Swanson said other issues, including Iran’s nuclear research and its advanced ballistic missiles, haven’t been addressed.
Despite signs of progress toward an agreement, the gaps between the two countries remain large.
Part of the problem is that both sides appear to believe they have won the war, said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Iran analyst at Israel’s defense intelligence agency.
Trump and other U.S. officials frequently assert that the United States has gained the upper hand by destroying Iran’s navy, air force and many of its missiles.
But the Iranians use a different scoring system, Citrinowicz said.
“Iran does not measure success the same way Washington often does,” he wrote in an email. “From Tehran’s perspective, simply holding firm in the face of American pressure can be framed as a win.”
“Tehran believes time is working against Trump politically and strategically,” he added. “Iran is prepared for prolonged confrontation; the United States, far less so.”
And even if a negotiated agreement is reached, the deals under discussion now won’t resolve all the conflicts between the two countries.
“An interim deal to buy time [is] probably where we end up,” Swanson said. “Buying time is not a bad thing. Ending a war is not a bad thing. But it’s not a comprehensive solution.”
The European Commission on Thursday cut its 2026 growth forecast for the European economy, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East drives energy prices sharply higher.
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The EU economy is now expected to grow by just 1.1% in 2026, down from the 1.4% projected in the Commission’s autumn forecast. The eurozone outlook was revised down further to 0.9%.
In its report, the Commission warned that disruption to global energy markets — caused by escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key oil and gas shipping routes — has significantly worsened Europe’s economic outlook.
“Before the end of February 2026, the EU economy was expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace, alongside a further decline in inflation,” the report said. “However, the outlook has changed substantially since the outbreak of the conflict.”
Inflation is also expected to rise sharply due to the disruption around Hormuz.
EU inflation is forecast to reach 3.1% this year — a full percentage point higher than previously expected — driven mainly by soaring energy costs after oil and gas prices surged amid fears of supply disruptions in the Gulf.
For EU officials, the shock recalls 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades.
The Commission described the latest turmoil as “the second such shock in less than five years”, warning that Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels leaves it highly vulnerable whenever geopolitical tensions threaten global energy supplies.
Consumer confidence has already fallen to a 40-month low, according to the forecast, as households prepare for higher heating and fuel bills while businesses face rising operating costs and weaker demand.
Investment is also expected to slow as companies confront tighter financing conditions and growing uncertainty. Export growth is weakening as global demand softens.
Despite the deteriorating outlook, Brussels said the bloc is better prepared than during the Ukraine-related energy crisis, thanks to years of investment in renewable energy, lower gas consumption and efforts to diversify away from Russian supplies.
“The push towards supply diversification, decarbonisation and lower energy consumption has left the EU economy better placed to absorb today’s shock,” the Commission said.
However, EU officials acknowledged that risks remain heavily skewed to the downside.
The report warned that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or across wider Middle Eastern supply chains could drive energy prices even higher, derail the expected easing of inflation in 2027 and potentially stall Europe’s recovery altogether.
The Commission also cautioned that shortages of refined oil products, fertilisers and other industrial inputs could spread through global supply chains, increasing food and manufacturing costs across Europe.
Meanwhile, European governments are preparing for growing fiscal pressure. Public deficits across the EU are expected to widen as governments increase spending to protect households from rising energy bills while also boosting defence expenditure amid mounting geopolitical instability.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has recently urged the European Commission to relax fiscal rules for households and industries struggling with soaring energy costs, arguing that energy security should be treated with the same urgency as defence spending.
At the centre of Rome’s request is the EU’s national escape clause, adopted on 8 July, which allows member states temporary fiscal flexibility to increase defence spending under exceptional circumstances.
Meloni said Brussels had already shown a willingness to loosen budget rules in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and growing concerns about Europe’s military preparedness. Italy is now seeking similar flexibility for emergency energy measures.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy claims it has greatly expanded how it defines the Strait of Hormuz, which it has closed to most shipping since the start of the now-paused war. The move comes as that closure has wide-ranging impacts on the global economy and with U.S. President Donald Trump mulling new military actions against Tehran amid deadlocked peace negotiations and a tenuous ceasefire barely holding.
Under its new definition, the IRGC claimed a tenfold expansion “forming a complete crescent” of “about 20 to 30 miles to one now over 200 to 300 miles,” Political Deputy of IRGC Navy Mohammad Akbarzadeh said in a TV interview, according to the official Iranian FARS news agency.
“The Strait is no longer viewed as a narrow stretch around a handful of islands but instead has been greatly enlarged in scope and military significance,” Akbarzadeh noted. “In the past, the Strait of Hormuz was defined as a limited area around islands such as Hormuz and Hengam, but today this view has changed. The Strait is now defined as a strategic zone stretching from the city of Jask in the east to Siri Island in the west.”
🇮🇷 IRGC NAVY says the area it considers the ‘Strait of Hormuz’ has expanded further:
“In the past we defined it as a limited area around islands like Hormuz or Hengam. But now, it has significantly expanded – from the coasts of Jask and Siri to beyond the major islands.”
— Nader Itayim | نادر ایتیّم (@ncitayim) May 12, 2026
We asked the White House and CENTCOM for reactions to the IRGC Navy announcement. The White House dismissed it.
“During Operation Epic Fury, Iran was crushed militarily – their ballistic missiles are destroyed, their production facilities are dismantled, their navy is sunk, and their proxies are weakened. Now, they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million per day thanks to the United States military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told us. “The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”
CENTCOM has not responded to our query.
The reported expansion is the second announced by Iran since the start of its conflict with the U.S. and Israel.
Both U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and Iran say the IRGC launched strikes against U.S. Navy warships and commercial vessels they were helping to protect during the short-lived Project Freedom on May 4. That was an effort, created by Trump, to help guide ships through the Strait that was paused after about 36 hours. CENTCOM forces responded with strikes on attacking ships. Days later, another exchange of fire took place, with CENTCOM saying it bombed Iranian targets after destroyers came under fire transiting the Strait to the Gulf of Oman.
The Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer USS Mason was one of three destroyers, along with the USS Truxtun USS Rafael Peralta that CENTCOM said were attacked by Iran as they transited the Strait. (CENTCOM)
The IRGC said the new definition was created in response to yesterday’s statements by President Donald Trump repeating that Iran’s Navy has been destroyed by U.S. attacks during the now-paused Operation Epic Fury.
“This very design and implementation of the new plan shows that this force is present on the scene with authority,” Akbarzadeh proffered.
As we noted yesterday, frustrated by the pace of negotiations, Trump threatened new military action against Iran ranging from resuming Project Freedom to new airstrikes against Iranian targets and perhaps even a ground incursion to retrieve Iran’s highly enriched uranium.
NEW: US President Trump says he is considering renewing “Project Freedom,” but this time around the US guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz would be just one small piece of a larger military operation. pic.twitter.com/woM2r5zE84
The closure of the Strait is having a direct impact in the U.S., spurring Trump to consider pausing the federal gas tax as a form of relief for American consumers as energy prices soar, The Washington Post noted. The move — which requires congressional approval to pass — would mark the latest in a string of government interventions to address fallout from the war.
“Since the war began in late February, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, an international benchmark, has skyrocketed from about $70 to more than $107. U.S. gas prices — now an average of $4.50 a gallon — have reached levels not seen since 2022 and contributed to Trump’s falling approval ratings ahead of the November midterms,” the Post stated.
President Trump said he would reduce the 18-cent federal gas tax for a yet to be determined period as U.S. fuel prices shoot higher due to the Iran war. pic.twitter.com/gvByq7ZsHs
The impacts of the closure are even greater in Asia, which relies more heavily on oil that normally transits the Strait. For instance, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked his nation’s 1.4 billion people to spend less on fuel, fertilizer, and travel, The New York Times reported.
Modi “made these sweeping recommendations in a national address on Sunday after securing a big win for his party in recent state elections,” the newspaper added. “With that victory in hand, he no longer has to worry that voters might punish his candidates for higher prices of fuel, food and transport, which are tightly controlled by India’s government. Instead of subsidizing the losses and running huge budget deficits, India’s leader appears emboldened to ask its people to bear the burden.”
The situation is so dire that the International Energy Agency has recommended a range of measures for governments and businesses to reduce demand and mitigate the “oil shock,” CTech reported.
“Among the proposals: encouraging remote work and reducing commuting, which accounts for between 5% and 30% of vehicle use,” according to the publication. “Road transport alone represents about 45% of global oil demand. According to the agency, if the average employee worked from home three days a week, personal oil consumption could fall by as much as 20%.”
Several countries have already adopted such policies, CTech noted.
“Indonesia now requires public-sector employees to work remotely on Fridays, while Myanmar mandates remote work on Wednesdays. Pakistan and the Philippines have introduced four-day work weeks for government employees, while Sri Lanka, Peru, and Bangladesh have shortened school weeks or expanded distance learning.”
Meanwhile, the longer the Strait remains closed, the greater the impact on the global economy. Though Trump continues to insist his bottom line on ending the conflict is ensuring that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon, the Strait of Hormuz remains the most urgent flashpoint.
UPDATE: 3:50 PM EDT-
The U.S. military is considering officially re-naming the war with Iran “Operation Sledgehammer” if the current ceasefire collapses and President Donald Trump decides to re-start major combat operations, NBC News reported, citing two U.S. officials.
“The discussions about possibly replacing ‘Operation Epic Fury’ with ‘Operation Sledgehammer’ underscore how seriously the administration is considering resuming the war started on Feb. 28, and could allow Trump to argue that it restarts the 60-day clock that requires congressional authorization for war,” the network added.
Saudi Arabia “launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out in the kingdom during the Middle East war,” Reuters reported, citing two Western officials briefed on the matter and two Iranian officials.
“The Saudi attacks, not previously reported, mark the first time that the kingdom is known to have directly carried out military action on Iranian soil and show it is becoming much bolder in defending itself against its main regional rival,” the outlet added.
The news about Saudi Arabian strikes on Iran comes a day after it was reported that the UAE attacked Iran as well.
Reuters reports that in addition to UAE, #SaudiArabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on #Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out in the kingdom during the Middle East war, two Western officials briefed on the matter and two Iranian officials said.…
During his testimony at the Senate Appropriations Committee, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine was asked how – despite the vast investment in national defense and the U.S. military – Iran can still close the Strait.
“It’s complicated,” Caine responded.
DURBIN: Could you explain to the American people why with the vast investment we’ve made in national defense and military, how Iran after they are attacked by us is still capable of stopping the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz?
Speaking to reporters before leaving for China, Trump was queried by reporters about the future of negotiations with Iran.
“We’re going to see what happens,” the president responded. “We’re only making a good deal… I believe that one way or the other, it’s going to be very good for the American people—and I think actually, very good for the Iranian people.”
.@POTUS on Iran negotiations: “We’re going to see what happens. We’re only making a good deal… I believe that one way or the other, it’s going to be very good for the American people—and I think actually, very good for the Iranian people.” pic.twitter.com/t6y8bCjpk5
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 12, 2026
Trump gave some insights into his message to his Chinese counterpart, President Xi.
“I think number one, we’re going to have a long talk about it,” the U.S. leader posited. “I think he’s been relatively good, to be honest with you. Look at the blockade. No problem. They get a lot of their oil from that area. We’ve had no problem. And he’s been a friend of mine. He’s been somebody that we get along with. And I think you’re going to see that good things are going to happen. This is going to be a very exciting trip. A lot of good things are going to happen.”
Asked the extent the average American’s finances are motivating him to make a deal with Iran, Trump dismissed the notion.
“The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran, they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing, we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.”
Trump on Iran War:
Reporter: What extent are Americans’ financial situation motivating you to make a deal?
Trump: Not even a little bit. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation pic.twitter.com/bimWMDg30Z
— Rohitash Mahur ( Lodhi ) (@MahurRohitash) May 12, 2026
UPDATES
The war has cost U.S. taxpayers $29 billion so far, Jay Hurst, Pentagon comptroller, told lawmakers this morning. That’s up from the $25 billion estimate he provided Congress on April 30. These estimates mostly take into account the amount of munitions the U.S. has expended during Epic Fury. They do not include the cost to repair damage to U.S. military installations across the Middle East, Hurst again noted today.
That means the price tag for Epic Fury will be far higher than what Hurst told Congress.
In addition to 14 troops who have been killed so far, several media reports have pointed out that the damage to U.S. assets has been far more extensive than officially reported. Last week, for instance, a Washington Post analysis “found 217 structures and 11 pieces of equipment that were damaged or destroyed at 15 U.S. military sites in the region.”
Hurst previously said that DOD doesn’t have an estimate yet for repair costs to the extensive damage to US bases overseas, and has appeared to leave the door open to force posture changes.
Today he said: “We don’t know what our future posture is going to be, we don’t know how… https://t.co/9ATXDmn2Se
A new attack on Iran could spur the country to pursue weapons-grade enrichment of its uranium, an official in Tehran threatened on Tuesday.
“One of Iran’s options in the event of another attack could be 90% enrichment,” Ebrahim Rezaei, a member of the Iranian parliament and the spokesperson for the body’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, stated on X. “We will review it in the parliament.”
The 60% enrichment level is well above what is required for civilian power generation (typically between 3% and 5%), but also below the level for it to be considered highly enriched or weapons-grade (90%). At the same time, it is understood to be a relatively short step, technically speaking, to get uranium from 60% to 90% purity. As a standard metric, the IAEA says that 92.5 pounds of 60% uranium is sufficient for further enrichment into enough weapons-grade material for one nuclear bomb.
However, it is one thing to threaten to boost enrichment and another thing to actually do it. Sites that would have traditionally been used to do this are now largely destroyed. What’s left of them is heavily surveilled by the U.S. and any strong indication that such a move was taking place would likely result in a new wave of strikes from the U.S. and especially Israel.
یکی از گزینههای ایران در صورت حمله مجدد میتواند غنیسازی ۹۰ درصد باشد. در مجلس بررسی میکنیم.
“Can I say a word of appreciation, deep appreciation and admiration for the United Arab Emirates?” Huckabee said during an event in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. “I think that the UAE is an example. They were the first Abraham Accord member, but look at the benefits that they have had as a result. Israel just sent them Iron Dome batteries and personnel to help operate them. How come? Because there’s an extraordinary relationship between the UAE and Israel.”
Huckabee added that in the days after the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas surprise attack on Israel, the UAE was the only nation maintaining flights to Israel while U.S. and European carriers stopped.
🚨 WATCH: US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee officially confirms: Israel sent the United Arab Emirates an Iron Dome system and a team to operate it. This happened because there are exceptional relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, based on the Abraham Accords. pic.twitter.com/BgCkESt4Yl
Iran’s ambassador to the United Kingdom and permanent representative to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Ali Mousavi, issued a formal complaint about the U.S. interdictions of Iranian oil tankers M/T Tifani and Majestic X, Iran’s official IRNA news outlet reported.
“In a letter to IMO chief Arsenio Dominguez on Monday, Mousavi referred to the dire conditions of the crew members of the two seized tankers, warning that Washington is responsible for the lives and health of the sailors caught in the situation,” the outlet claimed.
In the letter, “Mousavi stated that about 60 crew members of the two tankers, including 20 Iranian nationals, are being held on a tugboat in unsafe and unhealthy conditions, reportedly without adequate food and water to those on board.”
Mousavi called the situation “intolerable and a clear violation of the relevant rules and regulations of the IMO, stressing that any unilateral US claim has no legal justification for exposing civilian seafarers to starvation, deprivation and danger on the high seas,” IRNA noted. “He described the US behavior as illegal, reckless, inhumane and completely inconsistent with the basic standards governing the treatment of persons employed in commercial shipping.”
TWZ cannot independently verify that claim. CENTCOM declined comment.
In the wake of French Tiger attack helicopters shooting down Iranian drones attacking the UAE in March, France is now considering embarking these aircraft aboard frigates for any potential Strait of Hormuz security effort.
“The French Army’s Tiger helicopter was tested last March in the United Arab Emirates; equipped with its 30mm cannon and two pods carrying 22 rockets, it proved to be truly effective—and a powerful deterrent—against Iranian drones,” French Navy Admiral Thibault de Possesse, commander of the Charles de Gaulle carrier strike group now in the Red Sea, told the RFI media outlet.
“Recently—thanks to the efforts of the DGA [Directorate General of Armaments], as well as those of the Navy and the Army—we have certified the deployment of Tiger helicopters aboard French Navy frigates,” de Possesse explained. “Consequently, we are now capable of launching and recovering these combat helicopters—which are armed and specifically adapted for drone interception—directly from Navy frigates. They have already demonstrated their effectiveness against this type of threat in the United Arab Emirates.”
🇫🇷 NEW: France is preparing to deploy Tiger attack helicopters aboard naval frigates near the Strait of Hormuz after the aircraft proved highly effective against Iranian drones during tests in the UAE.
The Israeli Air Force intercepted a drone “launched from the east,” for the first time since the ceasefire with Iran took effect, the IDF said.
It remains unclear whether the drone was launched from Yemen or Iraq, as launches from both countries have been described in the past by the IDF as “from the east,” noted I24 reporter Ariel Oseran.
The Israeli Air Force intercepted a drone “launched from the east,” for the first time since the ceasefire with Iran took effect, the IDF said.
It remains unclear whether the drone was launched from Yemen or Iraq, as launches from both countries have been described in the past…
— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) May 12, 2026
Soar Atlas has released new high-resolution imagery it claims shows a clear view of a clandestine airstrip Israel built in western Iraq. The existence of the airstrip was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, which stated it was set up to aid Israel’s air war on Iran in the now-paused war. The facility housed special forces and served as a logistical hub for the Israeli air force, the newspaper noted. Built with the knowledge of the U.S. just before the start of the war, it also included search-and-rescue teams positioned to assist any downed Israeli pilots.
The Soar Atlas images were taken March 8 and appear to show the airstrip constructed on a dry lake bed near al-Nukhayb in Iraq’s Anbar Desert during the opening days of the Iran war.
“The improvised runway, measuring approximately 850 meters in length, was reportedly built overnight between March 1–2, 2026,” according to Soar Atlas.
As we noted yesterday, the Iraqi military said the facility no longer exists and that investigations are underway to determine how it came to be built. We have also reported that Israel likely created similar facilities in Iraq during the 12-Day War last year and TWZ has noted that it would likely happen again in the future.
🚨Soar Atlas has made available new high-res imagery from Mar 8 to explore, with a clearer view of the secret Israeli Airstrip in Western Iraq.
Heavy ship traffic and rising regional tensions fuel fears of a wider confrontation over one of the world’s most critical energy routes. Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi gets exclusive access to report from the Strait of Hormuz.
A ship was observed waiting to transit the Strait of Hormuz in the Arabian Sea off Muscat, Oman, Tuesday, May 12, 2026. The fragile cease-fire between the United States and Iran conditioned on opening the strait—has kept maritime traffic at very low levels, as tensions rise in negotiations between the two sides. Photo by Ismael Mohamad/UPI | License Photo
May 15 (Asia Today) — Leaders from 26 countries, including South Korea, issued a joint statement supporting the restoration of normal operations through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a CNN report.
The statement came as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing.
The leaders of South Korea, Britain, France, Japan, Canada, Qatar and Bahrain were among those who reaffirmed support for freedom of navigation through the strait.
“We will use the full range of diplomatic, economic and military capabilities to support freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz,” the leaders said in the statement.
They said navigation must remain free under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea and international law.
The leaders also pledged support for an independent and strictly defensive multinational military mission, including mine-clearing operations, to achieve that goal.
They said any military mission would be carried out only in a permissible environment and would complement diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions.
Trump, who is visiting China, said in a Fox News interview after his summit with Xi that the Chinese leader also supports reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
“President Xi wants the Strait of Hormuz open,” Trump said, adding that Xi offered to help “if he can be of any help.”
The US and Chinese leaders agreed during talks in Beijing that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open to ensure global energy supplies.
Published On 15 May 202615 May 2026
United States President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the Strait of Hormuz during talks in Beijing, with the White House saying Xi agreed the strategic waterway “must remain open to support the free flow of energy” as tensions over the Iran war continue to roil global markets.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi urged fellow BRICS nations at a meeting in New Delhi, India, to condemn the US-Israel war on Iran as a violation of international law, insisting Tehran would “never bow to any pressure”.
At the same time, a third round of direct talks between Lebanese and Israeli negotiators is under way in Washington, DC, aimed at ending hostilities, even as Israeli attacks continue across towns and villages in southern Lebanon.
Here is what we know:
In Iran
Iran urges BRICS to condemn US and Israel: Araghchi told the BRICS+ bloc that Iran was a “victim of illegal expansionism and warmongering” and called on member states to oppose “Western hegemony” by condemning the actions of the US and Israel.
Iran accuses UAE over war: Araghchi also accused the United Arab Emirates of playing an active role in the war against Iran, saying during the BRICS summit in India that the UAE was “directly involved in the aggression against my country”.
Iran signals new Hormuz strategy: Iranian media reported that more than 30 ships, including some linked to Chinese companies, were allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz overnight as Tehran signalled the waterway was “open to all commercial ships” that cooperate with Iranian naval forces.
War diplomacy
Xi offers help on Hormuz: Trump said Xi Jinping had offered China’s help to open the Strait of Hormuz and pledged not to send military equipment to aid Iran in its war against the US and Israel.
Trump-Xi summit held amid ‘promise fatigue’: Analyst Drew Thompson said Washington and Beijing remain deeply distrustful after years of unmet expectations, with both sides accusing the other of breaking promises. He described the summit as “carefully managed” and focused on preventing further deterioration in ties.
US says Israel-Lebanon talks ‘positive’: A US official said talks in Washington on Thursday between Israel and Lebanon about an expiring ceasefire were “positive” and will take place as planned for a second day.
In the US
Trump wants Iran’s uranium for ‘public relations’: The US president suggested that hunting down Iran’s enriched uranium was primarily for political optics, after Israel demanded it as a goal in the war. “I just feel better if I got it, actually, but it’s – I think, it’s more for public relations than it is for anything else,” Trump told Fox News.
Trump says Iran must make deal: In the same interview, Trump told Sean Hannity he was running out of patience to reach a truce with Iran as peace talks have stalled. “I’m not going to be much more patient… They should make a deal. Any sane person would make a deal, but they might be crazy,” Trump said.
In Israel
NYT lawsuit: Israel says it will sue The New York Times after the newspaper published an article by columnist Nicholas Kristof detailing rape allegations by Palestinian detainees against Israeli forces. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office announced the legal move three days after the report, which was based on accounts from 14 male and female Palestinian victims.
In Lebanon and Syria
Hezbollah claims attacks on Israeli forces: The group said it launched rockets, drones and artillery attacks on Israeli troops and military vehicles in southern Lebanon, and claimed to have downed Israeli drones.
Israel-Lebanon talks face uncertainty: According to Al Jazeera’s Manuel Rapalo, Israel is seeking stronger security guarantees and Hezbollah’s disarmament, while Lebanon wants a permanent ceasefire and Israeli troop withdrawal from the south. Rapalo says Hezbollah’s refusal to commit to any future agreement adds significant uncertainty, although diplomats still view the talks as a breakthrough.
Amnesty urges Israel to conduct Syria war crimes probe: The rights group called for investigations into Israeli raids and shelling in southern Syria, which residents say have destroyed homes and farmland and led to detentions. Israel has also seized additional territory beyond the occupied Golan Heights, in violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the central strategic battleground in the ongoing confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and regional Gulf powers. What initially appeared to be a military conflict is increasingly evolving into a struggle over maritime control, energy security, and geopolitical influence.
Since the outbreak of hostilities following the joint United States and Israeli strikes on Iran in February, Tehran’s near closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington’s retaliatory naval blockade have severely disrupted global energy markets. The conflict has reduced the movement of oil and liquefied natural gas through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, creating economic instability far beyond the Middle East.
Recent tanker movements coordinated through informal understandings with Tehran suggest that Iran may now be shifting from blocking Hormuz entirely to selectively controlling access. This emerging dynamic could fundamentally reshape Gulf security and international energy politics.
Hormuz Is No Longer Just a Trade Route
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically important waterways in the global economy. Before the conflict, roughly one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the narrow corridor each day.
Its disruption has exposed the vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical conflict. Asian economies have been particularly affected because of their heavy dependence on Gulf energy exports. Oil supply disruptions and rising transportation risks have intensified inflationary pressure, energy insecurity, and market volatility across multiple regions.
The recent passage of a limited number of oil and gas tankers with apparent Iranian approval demonstrates that Tehran may now be exercising selective authority over maritime transit rather than enforcing a complete blockade.
This distinction is critical because it suggests Iran is attempting to transform military leverage into long term political and economic influence.
Iran’s Emerging Strategy of Selective Access
The limited reopening of shipping lanes indicates that Tehran may be developing a new model of strategic control. Rather than permanently shutting down the strait, Iran appears to be determining which countries, companies, or shipments can safely transit through the waterway.
This selective access system gives Tehran several advantages.
First, it allows Iran to maintain pressure on global energy markets without fully halting trade flows that could trigger overwhelming international military intervention.
Second, it creates potential economic benefits through informal transit arrangements, leverage over energy dependent states, and indirect influence on oil pricing.
Third, it positions Iran as a gatekeeper within one of the world’s most important strategic corridors, expanding its geopolitical relevance despite sanctions and military pressure.
The reported coordination involving Pakistan and Qatar also demonstrates how regional diplomacy is becoming intertwined with energy security and conflict management.
Gulf States and the United States Face Strategic Risks
For Gulf Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, any arrangement that allows Iran to regulate maritime access poses a direct strategic threat.
Their economies depend heavily on uninterrupted hydrocarbon exports, and Iranian control over transit patterns would increase Tehran’s regional influence at their expense.
Asian importers are equally vulnerable because selective access introduces political uncertainty into global energy supply chains. Countries dependent on Gulf oil and gas would become increasingly exposed to Iranian political calculations.
For the United States, accepting Iranian dominance over Hormuz would undermine Washington’s broader strategic objectives in the region. The Trump administration has repeatedly emphasized restoring unrestricted freedom of navigation as a core war aim.
Allowing Iran to effectively manage maritime access would signal a major geopolitical shift and weaken perceptions of American regional dominance.
Why the Current Situation May Become More Dangerous
The most concerning aspect of the emerging situation is that temporary wartime arrangements could solidify into a long term strategic reality. Even if a ceasefire is eventually reached, Iran may resist fully restoring unrestricted navigation because Hormuz now represents its strongest source of leverage against the United States and regional rivals.
This creates the conditions for a prolonged state of instability rather than genuine conflict resolution.
A system based on selective transit rights would likely produce repeated confrontations as regional powers, Western navies, shipping companies, and energy importers challenge or negotiate the limits of Iranian control.
Such a situation would institutionalize uncertainty in global energy markets and increase the likelihood of future military escalation.
Analysis
The battle over the Strait of Hormuz reflects a broader transformation in modern geopolitical conflict where control over trade routes and economic chokepoints can become more strategically valuable than territorial conquest.
Iran appears to recognize that its greatest strength lies not in conventional military superiority but in its ability to disrupt the global economy through maritime leverage. By controlling the flow of energy through Hormuz, Tehran can influence oil prices, inflation, international diplomacy, and political stability in rival states.
This gives Iran asymmetric power against economically stronger adversaries.
The United States faces a difficult strategic dilemma. Military escalation aimed at fully reopening Hormuz could deepen regional conflict and further destabilize global markets. However, tolerating selective Iranian control risks weakening American credibility and altering the regional balance of power in Tehran’s favor.
The current situation also exposes the limits of military power in resolving structural geopolitical disputes. Even if active fighting declines, the underlying contest over maritime control, energy security, and regional influence will likely persist.
Ultimately, the future of the Gulf may increasingly depend not on battlefield victories, but on who shapes the rules governing the movement of energy through the Strait of Hormuz. If selective Iranian control becomes normalized, the region could enter a prolonged era of economic coercion, strategic competition, and recurring confrontation.
South Korea says it is investigating an incident on May 4 when two unidentified objects struck a Korean-operated cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
The strike caused a fire and damaged the vessel’s stern.
The South Korean Navy’s 3,200-ton Eulji Mundeok destroyer (front) and other vessels engage in the first live-fire drills of the year in waters off Taean, South Korea. File. Photo by YONHAP / EPA
May 8 (Asia Today) — South Korea’s Navy will deploy the destroyer Wang Geon to the Gulf of Aden next week with newly upgraded anti-drone defense systems, following heightened security concerns after an explosion aboard a South Korean-operated vessel near the Strait of Hormuz.
Defense Ministry officials said the 4,400-ton destroyer, assigned to the Cheonghae anti-piracy unit, is scheduled to depart from the naval port in Jinhae on May 15.
The deployment comes 10 days after an explosion and fire aboard the HMM Namu cargo vessel near the United Arab Emirates in waters close to the Strait of Hormuz. While South Korean officials later said it remains unclear whether the ship was attacked, the incident intensified concerns over growing threats to commercial shipping in the region.
The Wang Geon is expected to replace the destroyer Dae Jo Yeong in early June as part of the Navy’s regular six-month rotation in the Gulf of Aden.
Military officials and defense analysts said the latest deployment reflects a broader shift in South Korea’s maritime security posture as regional tensions escalate across the Middle East.
The destroyer has reportedly been equipped with enhanced counter-unmanned aerial systems designed to respond to drone and missile threats increasingly seen in the Red Sea and Gulf region.
According to defense industry experts, the upgrades include electronic jamming systems capable of disrupting hostile drones, along with improved integration between the ship’s close-in weapon systems and Rolling Airframe Missile interceptors.
The destroyer’s upgraded combat system is also expected to improve simultaneous threat detection and response capabilities against drone swarm attacks and low-cost unmanned systems.
South Korean officials have closely monitored attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have used drones and cruise missiles to target more than 100 vessels since late 2023, according to international assessments.
The Wang Geon is the fourth Chungmugong Yi Sun-sin-class destroyer operated by the South Korean Navy. The vessel previously served in anti-piracy missions and is now undertaking its 10th overseas deployment.
The ship carries a Korean vertical launch system, anti-submarine missiles and Hyunmoo-3 cruise missiles designed for precision strike operations.
The deployment also follows remarks by President Lee Jae-myung last month supporting multinational efforts to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
During a virtual summit hosted by France and Britain on April 17, Lee said South Korea was a “key stakeholder” in Hormuz security and pledged to make a “practical contribution” to protecting maritime navigation.
Government officials later confirmed the comments signaled Seoul’s willingness to expand the operational scope of the Cheonghae unit beyond the Gulf of Aden.
Military planners are reportedly considering broader operations near the Strait of Hormuz, though officials said any expanded multinational mission could require parliamentary approval.
Lawmakers from both the ruling and opposition parties have argued that participation in multinational military operations during wartime conditions would need National Assembly consent under South Korean law.
The Cheonghae unit was originally established in 2009 to combat Somali piracy, but defense analysts say its mission has increasingly evolved toward countering asymmetric threats from state-backed groups and regional militias.
Since its creation, the unit has supported the safe passage of more than 40,000 vessels and gained international attention during the 2011 rescue of the Samho Jewelry crew from Somali pirates.
Officials say the Wang Geon’s upcoming deployment marks a turning point as South Korea expands its role in global maritime security operations amid rising instability in the Middle East.
Large-scale crude oil storage tanks are seen in the background at a Sodegaura Refinery in Sodegaura, Chiba Prefecture, Tokyo Bay, Japan, 06 April 2026. Photo by FRANCK ROBICHON / EPA
May 8 (Asia Today) — Japan is expanding imports of Russian Sakhalin-2 crude oil beyond a one-time emergency purchase, extending supply arrangements to multiple refiners and fuel networks around Tokyo Bay as concerns grow over instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
Japanese officials have reportedly asked Fuji Oil, an Idemitsu Kosan affiliate, to accept crude shipments from the Sakhalin-2 project after similar imports were arranged through Taiyo Oil.
The move comes as Japan seeks to reduce risks tied to Middle Eastern oil supplies while continuing to use sanction exemptions that remain in place for Sakhalin-2 energy resources.
The Sankei Shimbun reported Wednesday that the tanker Voyager, carrying crude oil from the Russian Far East project, was heading toward Fuji Oil facilities in Sodegaura, Chiba Prefecture.
Fuji Oil became a subsidiary of Idemitsu Kosan in November 2025 and operates a refinery that supplies petroleum products to the greater Tokyo metropolitan area.
According to ship tracking data cited by the newspaper, the Voyager departed Prigorodnoye Port in southern Sakhalin on April 24 and arrived near Imabari in western Japan on Sunday. The vessel later conducted unloading operations at Taiyo Oil facilities before departing for Tokyo Bay.
The tanker is expected to arrive in Sodegaura on Friday and leave Tokyo Bay on Saturday.
Idemitsu Kosan acknowledged the shipment was made at the request of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
A company spokesperson told Sankei that the import did not violate sanctions and described it as part of efforts to diversify procurement sources and maintain stable fuel supplies.
Before halting most Russian crude purchases after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Idemitsu sourced roughly 4% of its oil imports from Russia.
Analysts say the significance of the latest shipment lies not simply in Japan buying Russian oil again, but in Tokyo integrating Sakhalin-2 crude into a broader emergency procurement network involving multiple refiners.
Japan had already begun using the sanctions exemption amid rising Middle East tensions, but the latest deliveries suggest the mechanism is evolving into a more permanent contingency supply channel.
The development is also drawing attention in South Korea, which remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil imports.
According to Korea National Oil Corp. data, South Korea imported about 1.03 billion barrels of crude oil in 2024, with 71.5% sourced from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia accounted for 32.2% of imports, followed by the United States at 16.4% and the United Arab Emirates at 13.7%.
Although South Korea has steadily increased imports of U.S. crude, its supply structure remains highly exposed to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy analysts say South Korea may eventually need to move beyond reliance on strategic petroleum reserves alone and develop broader contingency planning that includes alternative suppliers, refinery compatibility and supply stability at major refining hubs such as Ulsan, Yeosu, Daesan and Incheon.
Japan’s latest actions suggest governments are increasingly seeking practical emergency supply options within existing sanctions frameworks rather than relying solely on traditional energy security measures.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung engaged in a phone discussion in his
presidential office. Photo by Yonhap / EPA
May 8 (Asia Today) — South Korean President Lee Jae-myung spoke by phone Friday with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss ways to strengthen cooperation between the two countries, the presidential office said.
The two leaders agreed that South Korea and Canada should work more closely with the international community to support a peaceful resolution to tensions in the Middle East, secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and maintain stable energy supplies.
Kang Yu-jung, senior presidential spokesperson, announced the details in a written briefing.
Lee and Carney also reviewed follow-up measures from their bilateral summit held on the sidelines of last year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, and assessed that the efforts were proceeding smoothly.
The leaders agreed that bilateral relations are expanding beyond security cooperation into the economy, energy, advanced industries and culture. They pledged to deepen strategic cooperation based on that momentum.
“For South Korea, Canada is a key partner,” Lee said. “At a time when the international order is increasingly complex and global energy supply chains remain unstable, I hope South Korea and Canada will further strengthen cooperation in security, the economy, energy, critical minerals and advanced industries.”
Carney expressed agreement and said it was important for middle powers such as Canada and South Korea to strengthen solidarity through a more practical approach.
The two leaders agreed to maintain frequent communication and direct officials at various levels to pursue concrete results across multiple areas of cooperation.
