Hormuz

Ship tracking data shows sharp fall in transits as US and Iranian officials hold talks to save fragile peace framework.

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has plunged following Iran’s announcement that it has closed the waterway once again over Israel’s strikes on Lebanon, according to ship tracking data.

A total of 12 vessels crossed the strait on Sunday, down from 35 transits the previous day, an analysis by maritime intelligence company Windward showed on Sunday.

Five of eight vessels entering the strait had their Automatic Identification Systems turned off, according to Windward.

“The current traffic profile: dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked, resembling the late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait,” Windward said in a post on X.

Maritime traffic in the strait had been showing signs of recovery since US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday signed a memorandum of understanding on ending the US-Israel war on Iran.

Twenty-five vessels transited the strait on Thursday, the highest number since mid-April, according to data from maritime intelligence provider Kpler.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Saturday declared the waterway shut, citing Israeli “crimes” in Lebanon and the failure of the US to maintain a ceasefire in the country.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Saturday denied that Iran had closed the strait, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas supplies, saying that safe passage through the waterway remained “intact”, with 55 merchant ships transiting that day.

The cause of the discrepancy between the transit figures provided by CENTCOM and commercial ship tracking providers is unclear.

US and Iranian negotiators on Sunday held make-or-break talks in Switzerland as the conflict in Lebanon threatened to derail efforts to turn their 60-day ceasefire extension into a permanent peace deal.

In a briefing to Iranian media after the talks, Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the sides had discussed the safe passage of ships through the strait, and “a mechanism was set up, which is important”.

Despite renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran and signs of slowing traffic in the strait, oil prices moved lower on Monday morning in Asia.

Brent crude, the primary international benchmark, was down about 0.9 percent as of 01:30 GMT, at just below $80 a barrel.

Asia’s major stock markets opened higher, with key indices in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan making substantial gains.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 and Seoul’s Kospi were up 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, while the Taiex in Taipei surged 2.6 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index bucked the rally, dipping 0.7 percent.

Iranian armed forces say they’ve closed the Strait of Hormuz after Israeli attacks on Lebanon – just days after an agreement with the US reopen it.

Disruption to the crucial waterway has had a huge economic impact worldwide.

So, what happens next?

Presenter: Tom McRae

Guests:

Ian Ralby — Senior Fellow at the Center for Maritime Strategy and Associate Fellow with the International Law Programme at Chatham House

Mehran Kamrava — Professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar and Head of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies

Stavros Karamperidis — Associate Professor in Maritime Economics and Head of the Maritime Transport Research Group at the University of Plymouth

However, after Iran’s statement, US Central Command (Centcom) spokesperson Tim Hawkins said “traffic continues to flow”. He said US forces were “monitoring the situation to ensure this remains the case”, adding that “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz”.

United States President Donald Trump has pledged there will be no tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are collected by his own country.

Trump’s statement, made in a Saturday afternoon post on Truth Social, is the latest sign that a recently signed memorandum of understanding (MOU) may be unravelling.

“There will be NO TOLLS in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the Cease Fire Period, and there will be NO TOLLS after the 60 day period has expired,” Trump wrote, “unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America.”

Since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, Iran has successfully used the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point, closing the strategic waterway to traffic.

But under the terms of Wednesday’s ceasefire memorandum, the strait is supposed to reopen for an interim period of 60 days. During that time, Iran is barred from charging vessels for passage.

On Saturday, however, Iran’s joint military command said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, citing a “clear breach” of the memorandum’s commitments.

US Central Command (CENTCOM), the agency that oversees military operations in the region, denied that report and maintained that the traffic continues to flow through the waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz has long been a flashpoint in the conflict between the US and Iran. Nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas is transported through the strait, as well as about 30 percent of the global fertiliser trade.

Closure of the strait has caused global fuel costs to soar and has tested agricultural sectors across the world.

Trump had responded to Iran’s chokehold over the strait by imposing a US naval blockade on Iran’s ports in the region.

But that naval blockade was lifted under the terms of Wednesday’s memorandum. The deal also paused fighting on all fronts in the regional conflict, including in Lebanon.

The memorandum, though, was not intended as a long-term deal. It serves as a launching point for negotiations on key issues, including the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.

Several points of divergence also went unaddressed in the memorandum. Nowhere does the memo say that future tolls cannot be collected from the strait after the 60-day period expires.

Before the war, there was no charge for passage through the strait. Trump himself said in an interview with The New York Times that the waterway should remain “permanently toll-free”.

But he appeared to reverse course in Saturday’s post, once again floating the possibility that the US could extract tolls in the strait, while barring Iran from doing so.

No fees should be levied, Trump wrote, “unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed”.

He explained that such a charge would compensate the US “for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs”.

Trump used similar language in his New York Times interview earlier this week, floating the US becoming “the guardian of the Middle East” in exchange for 20 percent of its revenue.

Saturday’s post is not the first time Trump has mused about the US imposing tolls in the strait, either.

In April, for instance, he discussed the idea with reporters, saying, “What about us charging tolls? I’d rather do that than let them have them. Why shouldn’t we? We’re the winner. We won.”

There has been no indication that Trump’s plans have been officially presented to countries in the region, many of whom have struck a careful balance in their dealings with both the US and Iran during the war.

Iranian officials, meanwhile, have repeatedly said they will not rule out imposing tolls in the strait, framing the issue as a matter of sovereignty and regional negotiation. The strait sits between Iran and Oman.

Further discussions are expected on the matter in the coming weeks.

But such negotiations have been thrown into jeopardy amid ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon, which threaten to violate Wednesday’s ceasefire memorandum.

Iran claimed that Saturday’s closure of the strait was a result of new Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, which killed dozens of people after the ceasefire was announced.

Iranian officials have also said that any upcoming talks should focus on proper implementation of the initial memorandum, and that the 60-day negotiating period stipulated in Wednesday’s deal would begin after that was settled.

Pakistan, a top mediator between the US and Iran, has said that follow-up talks are set to begin in Switzerland on Sunday.

Switzerland’s Federal Department of Foreign Affairs has confirmed that an Iranian delegation, led by parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, has already arrived for the negotiations.

On the US side, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance are expected to attend.

Vance departed for Switzerland late Saturday.

Analyst Alexandru Hudisteanu warns that Iran’s overuse of Strait of Hormuz as leverage could transform the strategic chokepoint from a deterrence tool into an instrument of extortion, potentially turning the country into an international pariah.

June 18 (Asia Today) — Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has left open the possibility of deploying the Self-Defense Forces to the Strait of Hormuz following an agreement between the United States and Iran to end hostilities.

“Nothing has been decided at this point,” Takaichi said Wednesday when asked about a possible deployment during a news conference marking the end of the Group of Seven summit near Évian-les-Bains, France, Japanese media reported Thursday.

Takaichi said Japan must closely examine the U.S.-Iran agreement and conditions in the region before making a decision.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping route for crude oil from the Middle East. Instability in the waterway could directly affect shipping, energy prices and Japanese industry because the country relies heavily on imported energy.

The U.S.-Iran agreement has shifted Japan’s immediate focus from preventing further fighting to securing freedom of navigation and considering its role in post-conflict efforts.

Even after fighting ends, naval mines and other threats to commercial vessels could remain. Japan would then have to determine whether its involvement should be limited to diplomatic support or include operations by the Maritime Self-Defense Force.

Security in the Strait of Hormuz and other major shipping routes was among the issues discussed at the G7 summit.

Japan faces the challenge of coordinating with its allies and partners while keeping any military involvement within the limits imposed by its pacifist Constitution.

“We will continue every possible diplomatic effort, including those related to reconstruction,” Takaichi said of the situation in the Middle East.

She said Japan would consider necessary measures to secure freedom of navigation through the strait and “steadily carry out what we are capable of doing,” including diplomatic efforts.

Britain, France and other countries have called for the unconditional reopening of the waterway and indicated that mine-clearing operations could be required. Japan has signaled its willingness to participate in a related joint statement.

Takaichi said Japan’s participation in such a statement would remain within constitutional limits.

The central issue is how extensively the Self-Defense Forces could participate.

Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution prohibits the use of force except in circumstances involving the country’s right to self-defense. Mine-clearing operations conducted while fighting continues could therefore be viewed as the use of force against the country that placed the mines.

Clearing mines left behind after a cease-fire, however, may be permitted under Japan’s Self-Defense Forces Act.

Japan deployed Maritime Self-Defense Force minesweepers to the Persian Gulf after the 1991 Gulf War cease-fire. The mission marked the Self-Defense Forces’ first operational deployment overseas and became a turning point in Japan’s debate over its international security role.

Takaichi’s remarks did not amount to an immediate deployment decision. They indicated, however, that Japan could consider participating in maritime security operations depending on implementation of the U.S.-Iran agreement and conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Japan’s possible role in the post-conflict Middle East – whether limited to diplomatic and reconstruction support or expanded to include Maritime Self-Defense Force operations – is expected to remain a major foreign and security policy issue.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260618010006401

June 18 (UPI) — The U.S. military on Thursday lifted naval blockades in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, with reports showing that shipping vessels have departed the region through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Central Command said in a series of posts on X that, following direction from President Donald Trump, blockades on maritime traffic along the coasts of Iran have ended.

Centcom noted, however, that the U.S. Navy will stay in the “general area” to be sure that “all aspects” of the peace agreement signed by the United States and Iran “are adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect.”

Trump signed the agreement Wednesday at the Palace of Versailles in France after the G7 Summit wrapped up, which included among its 14 points reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital shipping route for the region and much of the world.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had signed the deal earlier in the day.

“American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports,” Centcom said in one of the posts on X on Thursday.

“All U.S. military blockade efforts have ceased,” it said.

At least 12 energy tankers transited the Strait on Thursday, reopening a sailing route through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply is shipped around the globe, CNBC and the New York Post reported.

Among the vessels that transited the Strait were three Saudi Arabian supertankers, which together are carrying six million barrels of crude oil and are the kingdom’s first tankers to sail the shipping route since before the three-month-long U.S.-Iran war launched in February.

Vice President JD Vance also told reporters that more than 12 million barrels of oil had shipped through the Strait overnight Wednesday after the deal had been signed.

Brent crude drops to lowest price since early March before signing of framework deal to end US-Israel war on Iran.

Oil prices are continuing to drop, as hopes rise for a return to stability in global energy markets before the signing of a framework agreement on ending the United States-Israel war on Iran.

Futures for Brent crude due for delivery in August dipped nearly 1 percent on Wednesday, extending declines of about 5 percent on each of the previous two days.

The international benchmark stood at $78.24 a barrel as of 08:00 GMT, the lowest price since March 3, three days after the start of the war.

After rising more than 50 percent during the conflict, the price of crude on Wednesday afternoon in Asia was only about 7 percent higher than before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.

“The immediate prognosis, it seems, is optimistic and assumes no significant setbacks,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said in a commentary.

“Over the last four trading sessions, Brent, for example, has fallen by $17 [per barrel], a discernible vote of confidence that the worst, at least as far as supply disruptions are concerned, is behind us,” Varga said.

Vandana Hari, the founder of the Singapore-based oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights, said that while the announcement of the US and Iran’s memorandum of understanding (MoU) has brought relief to markets, the “hardest part, on delivering the pledges and promises, is yet to come”.

“Crude’s slide is entirely sentiment-driven,” Hari told Al Jazeera.

“The market is front-running the prospective reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and likely pricing in the best-case scenario for the normalisation of flows, which means the potential hiccups from logistics to renewed geopolitical tensions are not being adequately factored in,” Hari said.

While many details of the MoU due to be signed on Friday remain unclear, Iran is expected to end its near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, among other concessions.

The full reopening of the strait would be a crucial step towards restoring confidence in energy supply chains, after nearly four months of turmoil arising from the war.

Maritime traffic in the strait, which flows between Iran and Oman, has been reduced to a trickle due to the threat of Iranian missiles, drones and mines, reducing the global oil supply by an estimated 14 million barrels each day.

Even if the war does end, global energy flows are expected to take months to fully recover.

More than 500 vessels are estimated to be waiting to exit the Gulf through the strait, while the process of ensuring the channel is free of naval mines is likely to take weeks at a minimum.

Stephen Cotton, the general-secretary of the International Transport Workers’ Federation, said the signing ceremony scheduled to take place in Geneva, Switzerland, would be “at best the beginning” of a process of normalisation.

“The backlog of stranded vessels and the need for crew changes and rest mean a realistic return to normal shipping patterns is weeks, if not months, away,” Cotton said in a statement on Monday.

South Korea has begun consultations with the United States, Iran and other relevant countries regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following the signing of a preliminary deal aimed at ending the monthslong war in the Middle East, the foreign ministry said Tuesday.

According to U.S. officials, President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf inked the memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would extend the countries’ ceasefire for 60 days, during which negotiations will take place to address nuclear and other issues to reach a final peace deal.

A large number of vessels, including two dozen South Korea-linked ships, have been stranded in the waterway, which Iran has effectively choked off with threats of missile and drone strikes amid the war.

“We are assessing the details related to maritime transit and have begun necessary communication with relevant countries, including the U.S. and Iran,” ministry spokesperson Park Il said during a regular press briefing.

According to Park, the government is closely monitoring a range of factors before making judgments on passage operations, including the presence of naval mines, the overall security situation in the strait and shipping traffic conditions.

He said the government will continue to prioritize the safety of South Korean vessels and sailors while working to ensure the smooth resumption of shipping.

Park added the government will also maintain close consultations with shipping companies in assessing developments in the region.

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June 11 (Asia Today) — A South Korean-operated liquefied natural gas carrier that had been stranded near the Strait of Hormuz because of the U.S.-Iran war has passed through the waterway, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday.

The vessel was headed to a third country, not South Korea, and eight South Korean crew members were aboard, officials said.

“One South Korean vessel has passed through the Strait of Hormuz and is sailing,” the Foreign Ministry said. “Consultations related to this passage were led by the foreign-chartered company.”

The ministry said it understood the ship was heading to its final destination in a third country.

A Foreign Ministry official said Seoul has repeatedly emphasized to Iran the need for the prompt and safe navigation of all vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including South Korean ships. The official said the government is also continuing to communicate with related countries.

According to the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, one LNG carrier operated by a South Korean shipping company resumed operations and left the inner side of the strait as of 7 a.m. Wednesday.

As a result, the number of South Korean-operated ships waiting inside the strait fell from 25 to 24. The number of South Korean crew members in the area declined from 147 to 139.

Foreign Ministry officials said the South Korean vessels are anchored in safe areas near Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and other nearby waters, following guidance from the Oceans Ministry.

“The government’s top priority is the free and safe passage of South Korean vessels and crew members in the strait,” a Foreign Ministry official said. “We are carrying out diplomatic efforts through multiple channels regarding the remaining 24 vessels.”

The charterer of the ship that passed through the strait was identified as QatarEnergy, Qatar’s state-owned energy company, and the final destination was believed to be Pakistan.

The case differs from the earlier passage of the Universal Winner, a very large crude carrier operated by HMM, which left the strait after direct negotiations between the South Korean government and Iran. In the latest case, the charterer led the decision-making and consultations.

Diplomatic observers said the involvement of QatarEnergy as the charterer and Pakistan as the destination may have helped the vessel secure passage. Pakistan has maintained close communication with Iran over Middle East tensions, and consultations involving the Pakistani Navy and the charterer may have reduced safety concerns.

The passage was reportedly completed shortly before Iran announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said Wednesday local time it would completely close the strait in response to U.S. airstrikes.

Diplomatic observers said South Korea is likely to prioritize safety for the remaining 24 vessels for the time being, rather than pushing for immediate passage, as risks in the strait have increased.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260612010004185

DEVELOPING STORYDEVELOPING STORY,

Explosions hit Qeshm Island, ports along Strait of Hormuz after Trump threatens to hit Iran ‘very hard’.

The United States has launched fresh strikes against “multiple targets” in Iran at President Donald Trump’s direction, in a fresh escalation that prompted Tehran to declare the Strait of Hormuz closed to “all types of vessels”.

The US military said the strikes late on Wednesday were “in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression”, as Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm Island and in the cities of Bandar Abbas and Sirik along the Strait of Hormuz.

Blasts also hit the southern city of Kargan, wounding at least two people.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps accused the US of “repeated violations” of their April ceasefire, and said the Strait of Hormuz was “closed until further notice”.

It said all traffic in the vital waterway, including oil tankers and commercial vessels, would be affected, and firmly rejected the US’s previous claims that it had helped ships pass through the strait.

The IRGC subsequently added that “two oil tankers attempting to illegally pass through the strait were hit”.

The escalation comes a day after the US and Iran exchanged tit-for-tat strikes over the downing of a US Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier, Trump said the US would hit Iran “very hard”.

“We’ll see what happens with the deal. We were really close to a deal. But they keep stringing us along. They keep playing us for suckers because you know what? They dealt with some very stupid presidents. I have to say that I’m embarrassed to say it,” he told reporters at the White House.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian slammed Trump’s threat in a post on X.

“Critical infrastructures are the lifeblood of the people. Threats to target them – from transportation networks to the electricity and water industries – are not a show of strength but a sign of desperation in the face of a nation’s will,” he wrote.

“Iran, relying on the knowledge and capabilities of its specialists, national unity, and solidarity, will stand firm against any pressure or threat,” he added.

WASHINGTON — U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iran will continue after its forces shot down an American helicopter, President Trump said Wednesday, accusing the Islamic Republic of stringing him along over months of negotiations to end the war.

The prospect of a renewed U.S. air campaign cast fresh doubt on the viability of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran that has largely held since April, when the two sides reached a tenuous truce, pausing weeks of fighting. Trump’s decision to resume attacks comes after an exchange of fire between Israel and Iran threatened to spiral into open war over the weekend.

The administration has presented Trump with options to expand U.S. targets beyond the immediate area around the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian power plants across the country, an escalation that will open the president up to accusations he is targeting civilian infrastructure, according to a defense official familiar with the matter.

Speaking with reporters in the Oval Office, Trump encouraged the Iranians to accept a framework agreement negotiated between the two sides, and suggested that additional military action might compel Tehran to accept a final truce.

“We hit them hard yesterday, and we’re gonna hit ‘em again hard today,” Trump said. “And we’ll see what happens with the deal. We were really close to a deal, but they keep tapping us along — they keep playing us for suckers.”

The president’s remarks came a few hours after Trump posted on his social media website that Iran “will have to pay the price” for taking too long in negotiating a peace deal.

When pressed by reporters to elaborate, Trump said he meant that bombing would resume but declined to say whether that would include strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges, a threat he has repeatedly issued during the war.

The ongoing conflict, which is in its fourth month, has left a mark on the global and domestic economy. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that inflation accelerated in May, driven by a surge in energy prices linked to the war with Iran.

The consumer price index rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis — the largest monthly increase in three years — pushing the annual inflation rate to 4.2%.

Asked whether he was concerned about the inflation numbers, Trump told reporters that the “numbers were great.”

“You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over…,” Trump said, without finishing the thought.

The remark prompted near instantaneous news releases from Democratic operatives, as well as the party war room, which sent out a statement accusing Trump of mishandling a reckless war that has devastated the economy in the process.

“Donald Trump’s disastrous economic agenda and deadly and costly war with Iran have made life unbearable for millions of Americans,” Kendall Witmer, the Democratic National Committee’s rapid response director, said in a statement.

“Working families are shouldering skyrocketing costs for basic goods, with their wages being eaten up by Trump’s soaring inflation,” she added. “On the campaign trail, Trump promised to ‘defeat inflation,’ and to lower costs on ‘Day One,’ but two years later, Trump can’t get a handle on his war of choice with Iran as he tanks the economy back home.”

Trump then told reporters about a secret military mission to ensure safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important commercial waterways. He said the operation had secured the passage of more than 100 million barrels of oil through the strait since it began.

“We took out, the other night, 22 ships late at night with no lights because they don’t have any radar because we blasted the crap out of it,” Trump said.

A couple of hours later, Trump wrote in another post that the military operation had been “wildly successful,” and that it proved the United States — not Iran — was in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Their military is defeated, and their economy is lost,” he wrote. “It’s over for Iran!”

Over months of diplomacy with Iran, Trump has sought to avoid a return to conflict, often seeking de-escalation when fighting has flared — and repeatedly pressuring Israel to minimize its attacks in Lebanon, where it continues to battle the militant group Hezbollah, a proxy of Iran.

Israeli strikes continued Wednesday, according to local news reports, while Hezbollah said it carried out attacks on Israeli troops stationed in southern Lebanon.

Speaking to journalists in the Oval Office, the president implied he was losing patience with Iranian tactics at the negotiating table.

“I gave them a break, at the request of Pakistan,” he said. “They still are working on trying them to do what’s right. But we want a deal that’s meaningful. We want a deal that works.”

“It was just tap, tap, tap,” the president added. “I don’t know what they’re doing.”

Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said international partners are urging the country to increase oil exports as concerns grow over disruptions to energy supplies linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Akkenzhenov, buyers are seeking the maximum possible increase in Kazakh oil shipments due to uncertainty surrounding one of the world’s most important energy transit routes. However, he noted that Kazakhstan faces infrastructure and production constraints that limit how quickly exports can be expanded.

To support higher output, Kazakhstan has postponed planned maintenance work at the Kashagan Oil Field until 2027. The country is also considering increasing crude shipments through the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan Pipeline, potentially raising volumes from 1.5 million tons to 2.2 million tons annually and beyond.

The development comes as global energy markets remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for international oil and gas exports.

Why It Matters

Kazakhstan’s growing importance highlights how global energy markets are seeking alternative supply sources amid rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could affect a significant share of global oil shipments, prompting importers to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on vulnerable routes. Kazakhstan, one of the world’s major oil producers, is increasingly viewed as a reliable alternative supplier.

The decision to delay maintenance at Kashagan signals that Kazakhstan is prioritizing production stability and export capacity at a time when energy security has become a major concern for consuming nations.

The move could also strengthen Kazakhstan’s strategic position in global energy markets, giving it greater influence as countries seek dependable suppliers outside conflict affected regions.

Key Stakeholders

• Kazakhstan – Seeking to expand exports while balancing OPEC+ commitments.
• Yerlan Akkenzhenov – Overseeing the country’s energy strategy.
• Kashagan Oil Field – One of the world’s largest oil fields and a key source of future production growth.
• OPEC+ members monitoring compliance with production agreements.
• Energy importing countries seeking alternative crude supplies.
• Oil traders and global energy markets responding to supply risks.
• Countries along the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan Pipeline route that facilitate exports to international markets.

Future Outlook

Kazakhstan is likely to face increasing pressure from international buyers if instability around the Strait of Hormuz persists. While production constraints may limit immediate gains, the postponement of Kashagan maintenance suggests authorities are positioning the country to maximize output over the coming years.

The expansion of exports through the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan pipeline could become increasingly important as energy consumers seek routes that bypass geopolitical hotspots. This would further enhance Kazakhstan’s role in global energy diversification efforts.

However, Kazakhstan must also balance market demand with its commitments under the OPEC+ framework. Any significant increase in production could attract scrutiny from fellow producers seeking to maintain supply discipline and price stability.

If Middle East tensions remain elevated, Kazakhstan is likely to emerge as one of the key beneficiaries of the global search for secure and reliable oil supplies.

With information from Reuters.

A U.S. Navy uncrewed surface vessel (USV) found and rescued the crew of a U.S. Army Apache that went down overnight near the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman. This is the first known use of a drone boat executing a personnel recovery action as part of a military search and rescue operation, and it’s likely a glimpse of what’s to come. The cause of the incident is otherwise under investigation.

Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesman, has confirmed the use of the Navy USV in the rescue effort to TWZ. This had already been hinted at by mention of Task Force 59, the Navy’s main drone force in the Middle East, in an official CENTCOM statement. What specific type of drone boat was utilized in this case is not yet known. Task Force 59 operates a variety of USVs, including speedboat-like types. The Task Force has been experimenting with all types of new uncrewed naval technologies and this rescue is clearly a major win for the forward-looking unit.

“At 7:33 p.m. ET on June 8, two crew members from a U.S. Army AH-64 Apache were rescued by American forces after their helicopter went down near the coast of Oman while patrolling regional waters,” per CENTCOM’s statement. “The Soldiers were safely rescued within approximately two hours and are in stable condition. The cause of the incident is under investigation.”

“Rescue efforts were led by U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and the 82nd Airborne Division, with support from U.S. Air Force and Navy units including U.S. 5th Fleet’s Task Force 59,” the statement added.

The New York Times was first to report that an Apache had gone down near the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump had also confirmed the crew was safe while speaking to reporters earlier this morning.

“We are going to issue a report tomorrow, but the pilots are fine,” Trump said after returning to Washington from the NBA Finals in New York.

As we have reported in the past, Army AH-64s have been part of an effort by the U.S. military to enforce the ongoing blockade of Iran and protect commercial shipping. Last month, Apaches and U.S. Navy MH-60 Seahawk helicopters destroyed six small Iranian boats that were threatening commercial ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz, according to Navy Adm. Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM. Apaches had already been conducting missions targeting Iranian naval assets in and around the Strait of Hormuz before the announcement of the ceasefire in April. All of this has shown that armed helicopters remain important assets in maritime operations, especially for defending against swarms of small boats.

As TWZ regularly highlights, search and rescue operations present inherent complexities and risks, especially when conducted in or near hostile territory. The F-15E rescue effort in Iran put a particular spotlight on the immense risks that combat search and rescue (CSAR) forces take, with helicopters and C-130 variants sent into areas where even a high-end fighter aircraft didn’t survive.

Open-water recoveries can present distinct additional challenges. There is always the possibility of the loss of additional assets and personnel in the process, no matter where a CSAR mission occurs.

The use of Navy drone boat in the rescue overnight highlights a new dimension for maritime CSAR going forward. These uncrewed assets can be more readily pre-positioned in a distributed manner. For example, in the broad expanse of the Pacific, USVs could be forward-deployed at multiple points along certain flight paths for this exact purpose. USVs could offer other distinct advantages in certain scenarios where they might be able to get into areas where traditional assets cannot and without risking additional personnel. These realities extend well beyond the maritime domain, and we are only likely to see uncrewed platforms of all kinds increasingly taking part in rescue efforts, especially in denied areas. The U.S. military is coming to terms with just how vulnerable their CSAR assets are and the ranges that would be needed to access highly defended areas, especially during a peer fight. Using drones to execute personnel recovery is being viewed as one part of a larger set of solutions to this pressing problem.

With the Apache going down near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military has now lost at least seven crewed fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters since the start of the latest operations against Iran in February. In addition, several aircraft have been damaged in the air and on the ground, including by Iranian fire. The TWZ graphic below offers a visual tally of damaged and destroyed aircraft as of April 10.

Despite the loss of the Apache, the use of a USV in the rescue effort is a major development and a sign of things to come.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

June 9 (UPI) — Two U.S. Army helicopter crew members were rescued and brought to safety within two hours after their Apache gunship crashed near the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump said early Tuesday that the two service personnel were “fine” and promised a report on the incident would be released in the next 24 hours or so.

U.S. Central Command said the pair were in a stable condition with spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins telling NBC News that a Task Force 59 unmanned surface vessel found and recovered the soldiers — the first time the U.S. military had carried out such an operation with a drone boat.

A source told the New York Times that it was yet to be established whether the aircraft came under Iranian fire, sustained a technical malfunction or encountered another issue.

The loss of a Hellfire missile-armed AH-64 Apache — which patrol the strait, downing Iranian drones and preventing small boats from attacking shipping — is a first for the U.S. military since the conflict started Feb. 28.

At least eight U.S. fighter jets and other military aircraft, plus more than two dozen uncrewed aerial vehicles, have been lost in both enemy and friendly-fire incidents but Monday’s crash was the first loss of a helicopter.

The Apaches play a key tactical role alongside F/A-18 and F-35s fighter aircraft in U.S. Central Command’s mission to counter the blockade of the vital international shipping route, which Iran has effectively put out of bounds to the vast majority of oil tankers and other commercial vessels.

However, the helicopters have been patrolling closer to Iran, including its islands in the Hormuz Strait and Persian Gulf, as part of Centcom’s effort to maintain the pressure on Tehran amid protracted negotiations to resolve the 100-day-long conflict.

Tehran did not immediately claim responsibility for the incident, according to Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency.

The confirmation from the U.S. side came hours after Iran and Israel sides paused airstrikes on each other at the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, who urged them to “stop shooting” because an agreement with Tehran to end the war was very close.

“We’re in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal that will not allow in any way, shape, or form nuclear weapons. The strait will open up right away.

Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to international shipping immediately after the agreement was signed, which could be before the weekend, adding that there was a chance it could be far earlier, “in one hour, if you want to know the truth.”

A U.S. Navy uncrewed surface vessel (USV) found and rescued the crew of a U.S. Army Apache that went down overnight near the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman. This is the first known use of a drone boat executing a personnel recovery action as part of a military search and rescue operation, and it’s likely a glimpse of what’s to come. The cause of the incident is otherwise under investigation.

Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesman, has confirmed the use of the Navy USV in the rescue effort to TWZ. This had already been hinted at by mention of Task Force 59, the Navy’s main drone force in the Middle East, in an official CENTCOM statement. What specific type of drone boat was utilized in this case is not yet known. Task Force 59 operates a variety of USVs, including speedboat-like types. The Task Force has been experimenting with all types of new uncrewed naval technologies and this rescue is clearly a major win for the forward-looking unit.

“At 7:33 p.m. ET on June 8, two crew members from a U.S. Army AH-64 Apache were rescued by American forces after their helicopter went down near the coast of Oman while patrolling regional waters,” per CENTCOM’s statement. “The Soldiers were safely rescued within approximately two hours and are in stable condition. The cause of the incident is under investigation.”

“Rescue efforts were led by U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and the 82nd Airborne Division, with support from U.S. Air Force and Navy units including U.S. 5th Fleet’s Task Force 59,” the statement added.

The New York Times was first to report that an Apache had gone down near the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump had also confirmed the crew was safe while speaking to reporters earlier this morning.

“We are going to issue a report tomorrow, but the pilots are fine,” Trump said after returning to Washington from the NBA Finals in New York.

As we have reported in the past, Army AH-64s have been part of an effort by the U.S. military to enforce the ongoing blockade of Iran and protect commercial shipping. Last month, Apaches and U.S. Navy MH-60 Seahawk helicopters destroyed six small Iranian boats that were threatening commercial ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz, according to Navy Adm. Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM. Apaches had already been conducting missions targeting Iranian naval assets in and around the Strait of Hormuz before the announcement of the ceasefire in April. All of this has shown that armed helicopters remain important assets in maritime operations, especially for defending against swarms of small boats.

As TWZ regularly highlights, search and rescue operations present inherent complexities and risks, especially when conducted in or near hostile territory. The F-15E rescue effort in Iran put a particular spotlight on the immense risks that combat search and rescue (CSAR) forces take, with helicopters and C-130 variants sent into areas where even a high-end fighter aircraft didn’t survive.

Open-water recoveries can present distinct additional challenges. There is always the possibility of the loss of additional assets and personnel in the process, no matter where a CSAR mission occurs.

The use of Navy drone boat in the rescue overnight highlights a new dimension for maritime CSAR going forward. These uncrewed assets can be more readily pre-positioned in a distributed manner. For example, in the broad expanse of the Pacific, USVs could be forward-deployed at multiple points along certain flight paths for this exact purpose. USVs could offer other distinct advantages in certain scenarios where they might be able to get into areas where traditional assets cannot and without risking additional personnel. These realities extend well beyond the maritime domain, and we are only likely to see uncrewed platforms of all kinds increasingly taking part in rescue efforts, especially in denied areas. The U.S. military is coming to terms with just how vulnerable their CSAR assets are and the ranges that would be needed to access highly defended areas, especially during a peer fight. Using drones to execute personnel recovery is being viewed as one part of a larger set of solutions to this pressing problem.

With the Apache going down near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military has now lost at least seven crewed fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters since the start of the latest operations against Iran in February. In addition, several aircraft have been damaged in the air and on the ground, including by Iranian fire. The TWZ graphic below offers a visual tally of damaged and destroyed aircraft as of April 10.

Despite the loss of the Apache, the use of a USV in the rescue effort is a major development and a sign of things to come.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

June 7 (UPI) — The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Sunday agreed to increase production by nearly 200,000 barrels per day despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, making it near-impossible to ship any of it.

Ordinarily, OPEC increasing oil production among the group of nations that comprise it would lower its cost, but experts have called the move largely symbolic because of the ongoing war in Iran, The New York Times and Wall Street Journal reported.

The Strait of Hormuz, which 20% of the world’s oil supply ordinarily would pass through daily, has been closed since early in the war as part of Iran’s effort to counter the war launched by the United States and Israel in February.

The OPEC members that agreed to the 188,000-barrel increase for July — the fourth month in a row that the group is increasing production — include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

The countries agreed to the increase as part of the group’s “commitment to support oil market stability” and said the latest production increase would also allow the participating nations to “accelerate their compensation,” OPEC said in a statement.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of a cautious approach,” the group said in the statement.

The Trump administration continues to negotiate an end to the war that would lead to the reopening of the Strait, in addition to working to limit Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon, amid a shaky weeks-long cease-fire.

In the latest flare-up of tension during a very shaky ‘ceasefire,’ “Iran has launched multiple drones towards the Strait of Hormuz,” a U.S. official told us. “U.S. forces have taken out at least four of them.”

The statement comes as unconfirmed reports are emerging online of explosions on Iran’s Kharg Island. The official, who spoke to us on condition of anonymity to discuss operational issues, declined comment about those claims.

Kharg Island, which has come under attack before during Epic Fury, is Iran’s main oil export facility. An attack on the oil infrastructure would represent a major escalation.

News of the U.S. takedown of the drones is the latest kinetic incident in the Strait and comes amid sputtering peace talks. As we wrote last week, the U.S. struck Iranian targets and Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain in an exchange that severely damaged Kuwait International Airport, killed several people and injured scores more.

You can see video and images of damage from the June 3 attack below.

Other exchanges have occurred around the strait, where U.S. Navy ships says vessels, including their own, were fired upon, which resulted in reprisal attacks on shore targets.

UPDATE: 6:56 PM EDT –

CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces attacked Iranian facilities and shot down Iranian drones..

“Moments ago, CENTCOM forces shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones that were launched toward the Strait of Hormuz,” the command stated on X. “The attack drones posed an immediate threat to regional maritime traffic. U.S. forces subsequently struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island to defend against further attacks. American forces remain vigilant and postured to respond to unjustified Iranian aggression in self-defense.”

UPDATE: 10:40 PM EDT –

In a post on X, CENTCOM claimed that “U.S. forces intercepted multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones launched by Iran toward the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf neighbors, June 5. “

“Iran fired seven ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain,” the command stated. “Initial assessments indicate six of the missiles launched by Iran were intercepted and a seventh did not reach its intended target. There are currently no reports of harm to U.S. personnel, and Iranian claims of damaging U.S. 5th fleet headquarters in Bahrain are false. CENTCOM forces remain vigilant and postured to continue responding to unwarranted Iranian aggression in self-defense.

The Iranian attack took place hours after the previously mentioned CENTCOM strikes on Iranian coastal targets.

The CENTCOM post included a video showing those strikes.

Oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz have quietly increased in recent weeks, but traders say the movement reflects a fragmented and opaque energy market rather than a full recovery in global supply flows.

More than four months into the ongoing conflict involving Iran, tanker traffic remains heavily disrupted, with shipping patterns increasingly shaped by risk, secrecy and shifting political arrangements.

Tanker Traffic Shows Limited but Rising Movement

Shipping data suggests that only a small number of tankers are currently crossing the Strait of Hormuz compared with pre conflict levels.

Monitoring firms including LSEG and Kpler estimate that an average of just a few vessels per day are now passing through the strait, far below normal volumes.

Despite this, analysis of oil stored on tankers in the Gulf indicates that outflows have gradually increased, suggesting more crude is leaving the region than official shipping visibility shows.

Hidden Shipping Patterns and “Dark” Tankers

A growing share of tankers are reportedly turning off tracking systems during transit through the strait, a practice known as going dark.

This involves disabling Automatic Identification System signals, making it harder to track vessel movements in real time.

According to shipping analytics firms such as Vortexa, a large majority of outbound tankers recently used this method, reflecting rising caution among operators.

This has made it significantly harder for markets to accurately assess global supply flows and has increased uncertainty in oil pricing.

Oil Stored on Tankers Shows Gradual Decline

One key indicator of market movement is the volume of oil stored on ships inside the Gulf, often referred to as oil on water.

Estimates from Kpler suggest that volumes have fallen from a peak of around 184 million barrels in March to roughly 148 million barrels more recently.

This decline indicates that more oil is gradually leaving the region, even if it is not fully visible through standard tracking systems.

Analysts estimate that outflows have increased over recent weeks, suggesting a slow and uneven recovery in shipping activity.

Security Risks Continue to Disrupt Shipping

The ongoing conflict involving Iran has significantly disrupted maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.

Limited access to the strait has forced producers to reduce output in some cases, while storage constraints have added pressure to supply chains across the Gulf.

Some shipping routes are reportedly being managed through informal arrangements or alternative corridors, while others rely on higher risk transit strategies to avoid detection or confrontation.

Recovery Remains Uncertain

Despite signs of increased movement, analysts warn that the situation is far from a return to normal.

A sustained recovery in oil flows would require consistent shipping access, stable security conditions and sufficient tanker availability to support exports.

Many shipowners remain reluctant to operate in the region due to elevated insurance costs and the risk of vessels being stranded or targeted.

Long Term Structural Change Possible

Industry observers warn that even if diplomatic progress leads to a formal reopening of the strait, the global oil market may not return to previous conditions.

There is growing discussion that Iran could attempt to impose tolls or control systems on shipping through the waterway, which would fundamentally alter global energy logistics.

Such a scenario could force Gulf producers to seek alternative export routes or invest in new infrastructure to reduce dependence on the strait.

Analysis: Market Stability Replaced by Managed Uncertainty

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz highlights a shift from predictable global energy flows to a more fragmented and opaque system.

While oil continues to move out of the Gulf, the lack of transparency in shipping routes is creating uncertainty for traders and pricing benchmarks.

The increased use of stealth navigation and alternative transit arrangements reflects a market adapting to geopolitical risk rather than resolving it.

As long as tensions persist, energy markets are likely to remain volatile, with supply visibility as important as supply itself in determining global prices.

Conclusion

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are slowly increasing, but hidden tanker movements and ongoing conflict mean the global energy market remains deeply uncertain. Without stable political conditions and transparent shipping routes, a full recovery in oil flows is unlikely in the near term, keeping traders cautious and markets volatile.

With information from Reuters.

WASHINGTON — The House approved a war powers resolution Wednesday that would halt the U.S. military action against Iran, defying President Trump as a handful of Republicans joined with Democrats to end the three-month-long war that has reordered politics at home and abroad.

House Speaker Mike Johnson had tried to prevent an outcome that would show the mounting opposition to the war, abruptly shutting down floor action two weeks ago when the war powers resolution was on the verge of approval. But displeasure has only grown as the conflict drags on and as Trump struggles to negotiate a quick resolution.

The roll call Wednesday was 215-208, and cheers erupted in the House chamber.

“This reckless and costly war of choice needs to end today,” House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said earlier in the week.

“All we need are a handful of Republicans to join us and we can end this reckless and costly war of choice — a war that has cost the American taxpayer over $100 billion — that’s extraordinary — and left our country in a weaker position relative to Iran.”

Opposition to war grows

It’s the fourth time the House has tried to curb the U.S. war against Iran, and the first time the House was able to pass the measure. The Senate advanced its own war powers resolution last month when a handful of GOP senators broke ranks with the Republican president in a rare show of political pushback from his party.

Each time Democrats have pushed forward the war powers resolution, the vote tallies have inched higher as political unease with the U.S. war swells. Trump had campaigned for the White House on a promise to end U.S. entanglements abroad and focus more on domestic issues, but the war has shifted attention back to the Middle East.

Johnson insisted Trump is “laser focused” on the domestic front, particularly ahead of the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.

The speaker said he spent three hours at the White House with the president this week as Trump is calling on allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commerce, especially the flow of oil.

Since the U.S. joined Israel in launching the Feb. 28 strikes on Iran, Americans have seen gas prices spike at the pumps, adding to inflationary pressure on consumer spending.

Iran has been able to interrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital channel for a large segment of the world’s oil, natural gas and related products such as fertilizer.

“We’re working on that final piece,” said Johnson, R-La. “The entire world has an interest in the Strait of Hormuz being reopen for commerce. That what he’s working on.”

While a ceasefire in the conflict was declared in April, it remains uneasy and uncertain. Talks for a more durable end to the fighting have dragged, increasingly complicated by Israel’s broadening war with Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. Meanwhile, military strikes between the U.S and Iran continue to flare.

Congress exerts its war powers authority

The war powers resolution from the House would not immediately stop the war, but it would provide a symbolic if not legal step against further military action.

If approved, it would then go to the Senate, where four Republican senators last month joined Democrats in advancing a similar measure to curtail the U.S. campaign against Iran. The Senate has yet to take a final vote to approve or reject its own war powers resolution.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Wednesday testifying at a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing that the Iranians would think that the administration’s “hands are going to be tied” if Congress approved a war powers resolution. He said they would think ”we won’t be able to do anything to them, so why make a deal?”

It’s not the only action Congress is taking in the national security arena as Democrats, in the minority, work to peel off Republican support for measures beyond the war against Iran.

The House is also voting Wednesday on another Democratic-led effort that would authorize U.S. support for Ukraine’s military operations as it battles Russia and to help reconstruct the war-torn country. The House this week is also expected to consider a war powers resolution to block U.S. action in Lebanon.

While Congress has the authority under the Constitution to declare war, the president also has power as the commander in chief to engage in military action, creating a legal dispute over which branch of government has ultimate say in matters of war and peace.

Under the war powers act, the White House has a 60-day window to seek approval from Congress for military action. The administration, however, has indicated that because a ceasefire has been declared in the current conflict in Iran, the hostilities have ceased.

Mascaro writes for the Associated Press.

June 2 (UPI) — Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate on Tuesday morning that Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz and commit to future talks on its nuclear program before the United States will make concessions.

He testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee before a scheduled afternoon meeting with a House panel on State Department spending. Both sessions were planned so that Rubio could defend the department’s nearly $36 million budget request for the 2027 fiscal year.

Rubio is also President Donald Trump‘s national security adviser.

The Washington Post reported that Rubio’s testimony with lawmakers has been mostly friendly. He served in the Senate for 14 years and in the House for 8, representing Florida.

Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have expressed frustration with the cost and potential political fallout from the war with Iran.

“This war and the administration’s decision to blockade has now held the entire world economy, and the U.S. economy, hostage to the ability to negotiate an agreement with Iran,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn, The Post reported.

The Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed by Iran since late February, must reopen, Rubio stressed. The strait is a critical waterway for shipping of much of the world’s oil, gas and fertilizer. The closure has caused gas prices to rise, causing anxiety as Republicans fear losing House and Senate seats in November.

Rubio said Trump demands that Iran enter into negotiating “severe and long-term limitations” on its nuclear program, including disposing of enriched uranium, and those talks could take months.

But he said he’s optimistic that Iran is more willing to negotiate on nukes.

“They have agreed to negotiate aspects of their nuclear program that just a month ago, just a year ago, they were refusing to even mention,” The Guardian reported Rubio said. He warned that it’s “not a guarantee that ultimately it will lead to a deal that’s acceptable,” and Iran’s leadership instability has made the negotiations more difficult.

Rubio said Iran had intended to use its conventional weapons capabilities as a “shield” to protect its nuclear program, The Guardian reported.

“What they tried to do is, they were going to try to build a conventional shield and hide behind that conventional shield,” he said, explaining why Trump wanted to start the war.

He also admitted, after questioning by Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, that another sticking point for Trump was that Iran stop supporting terrorist proxy groups. He said Trump is not willing to ease sanctions just for opening the strait.

Rubio said that Iranian Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is believed to be alive.

“I would imagine, given what’s happened to multiple leaders in that system, being very public is probably not something that’s recommended for them internally,” he said. “But that said, I think there are indications out there that he is increasingly engaging at some level, although all of his communications have been in writing and through intermediaries.”

Along with Iran, lawmakers were expected to ask Rubio about the president’s comments about Cuba and Taiwan.