Hormuz

EXCLUSIVE

Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator says Tehran is waiting for an official US response to its seven conditions for ending war.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, has told Al Jazeera that the Strait of Hormuz will “never return” to its status prior to the US-Israel war on Iran.

In an exclusive interview published on Wednesday, Ghalibaf said Iran and Oman reached an understanding to oversee the critical waterway as part of Tehran’s seven-point proposal to end the eight-month conflict.

“There are no ‘free waters’ [international waters] there, and the 1982 [UN Convention on the Law of the Sea] does not apply to the strait … The regulations within the Strait of Hormuz are governed by the laws of the two littoral states that border it,” he said.

Seven conditions

Ghalibaf said Tehran provided a clear response to the US through a Qatari mediator that included its seven conditions for peace talks, adding that Iran is waiting for an official response.

“The ball is now in the American court,” he said.

Iran’s conditions, as outlined by the chief negotiator, include lifting the US-imposed naval blockade and sanctions, the release of Iranian frozen funds, ending fighting on all fronts, and an explicit announcement of an end to the war.

He said these demands were part of the Islamabad memorandum of understanding signed in June and their implementation was necessary before entering negotiations with the US.

“If America limits itself to what has been agreed upon without making excessive demands or engaging in behaviour that breeds distrust, then, naturally, reaching an agreement is possible,” he said.

“What stands in the way of an agreement is our lack of trust in the United States.”

Renewed conflict

Ghalibaf said US officials asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to mediate direct negotiations with Tehran during a visit to Moscow.

He warned against new US attacks against Iran, saying that US President Donald Trump will face another defeat and political pressure from the new Congress that takes office in January.

Iran is determined to move beyond a state of “no war and no peace”, he said, urging a sustainable deterrent capability, including military capabilities.

Yemen mediation

On the ongoing fighting in Yemen between the Saudi-backed internationally recognised government forces and the Houthis, an armed group also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for “Supporters of God”), Ghalibaf said that “no one should interfere” in it.

“If both the government in Yemen and Saudi Arabia were to ask for our help, we would certainly offer our assistance to help resolve their conflict,” he said.

Iran has previously offered to facilitate talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi group in October following a series of deadly attacks on the kingdom.

Iran has exempted ships from India, China, Iraq and Qatar from its Strait of Hormuz restrictions, a senior Iranian lawmaker said on Tuesday.

“Ships from these countries pass freely, and the Americans do not intercept them either,” Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA).

Iran effectively shut the strait early in the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28, and the United States reimposed a naval blockade on Iran’s southern ports in July.

So why have these four countries been granted passage through the critical strait, and can their ships really sail freely while the blockade remains in place?

What does Iran get in return for letting ships pass?

It will receive medicine from India and political backing from China, according to Hayat Moqaddam. Iran already receives diplomatic support from Qatar, which is leading mediation efforts to end the US-Israel war on Iran.

Hayat Moqaddam said Tehran will also collect transit fees from Indian and Chinese ships, while Qatari vessels pass free. He did not say whether Iraqi ships will pay a toll.

“Whatever the lawmaker says is the rationale – the big question is if it works and, if yes, to what extent?” Rouzbeh Parsi, an Iran analyst and affiliated researcher at Lund University’s Department of History and Human Rights Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“Iran has been under sanctions for a very long time, so bartering and quid pro quos in trade are nothing new,” he said. The difference now, he added, is that “it’s about poking holes in an embargo and getting crucial goods/services in and out”.

Nader Hashemi, an associate professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, said that “most likely Iran is charging a transit fee or a percentage of the cargo value to allow those ships to go through without being harassed”.

“It’s a clever move by Tehran for several reasons,” Wolfgang Pusztai, a security and defence analyst and Austria’s former defence attache to Libya, told Al Jazeera.

“If successful, this move will generate significant revenue for Iran, as China is by far the largest purchaser of Iranian crude oil, buying nearly 90 percent of Iran’s total oil exports,” he said.

By including Qatar, with its many liquefied natural gas (LNG) buyers, and India, Iran is also “trying to undermine acceptance” of Washington’s strategy in the conflict, especially as it charges Qatar no tolls, he added.

Why does it matter to these four countries?

All four are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for exports.

Of the 10.23 million barrels a day of Gulf crude that passed through the strait in October, about 42 percent went to China and 13 percent to India, Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at the analytics firm Kpler, told Al Jazeera.

“China is the country most able to cross US interests. The question is whether Beijing considers it worth the potential political cost,” Parsi said.

Asia is particularly reliant on Gulf oil and gas usually shipped out via Hormuz. Countries there have much to offer in return for allowing ships to pass.

“For India, the shutdown of oil from the Gulf has been a great loss – and it is a big producer of the pharmaceuticals that Iran cannot manufacture itself,” he said.

Qatar, which is mediating between Washington and Tehran, shipped no LNG through the strait in August, but managed 1.8 million tonnes in October, Xu said.

Its crude transits fell over the same period, from 517,000 barrels a day to 193,000, while Iraq’s rose from 1.69 million to 2.65 million.

Kpler has been unable to trace the origin of up to two million barrels a day of Middle Eastern crude, so both countries’ flows may be higher, Xu said.

“India and Qatar have closer relationships with DC they need to maintain – while both of them also feel let down by Trump,” Parsi said, adding, “For Qatar, maintaining a relationship with Iran is also vital since it’s an unavoidable neighbour.”

“So for all of them, there are upsides for these exemptions from Iranian restrictions but also political dangers,” he said.

Is this announcement new?

Not entirely.

Iran began letting some vessels from countries it considers friendly pass within weeks of the war starting. And in April, its military command said “brotherly” Iraq was exempt.

With the Iraqi exemption, Iran “probably intends to support the economic recovery” of its western neighbour, a fellow Shia-majority country, Pusztai said.

Will ships be able to get past the US blockade?

That depends on Washington.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has said the blockade applies to “all vessels of all nations entering or leaving coastal areas or ports in Iran”, while vessels avoiding Iranian ports are not affected.

It has also said humanitarian shipments, including “food and medical supplies essential for the survival of the civilian populations”, can pass after inspection.

But Hayat Moqaddam did not appear to limit the exemptions to ships trading with other Gulf states, Pusztai noted. “If this is really the case, this would also have a significant impact on the other Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia,” he said.

“This could make the continuation of the American naval blockade more difficult and less effective, assuming Washington accepts this Iranian move,” he said. The main change, he added, is that the exemption “would also cover Chinese/Indian ships from/to Iran”, if the US accepts it.

It is also unclear whether “ships of these countries” means the flag a vessel flies, its owner, its operator or some other link, Pusztai said.

Ending the blockade is one of Tehran’s demands before it will commit to broader peace talks with the US, which will include discussions about Iran’s nuclear programme. Qatar-mediated talks currently centre on an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait if the US meets seven conditions, including this and lifting sanctions.

“It seems to be that Iran tries to separate the questions of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and oil exports from the nuclear question,” Pusztai said, adding, “The American reaction will show if this is successful.”

Will this make a difference to oil markets?

Not much, for now.

“I think they make only limited difference at present,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Al Jazeera.

“Markets are back to pricing in a peace deal, but if conflict flares up at full tilt, then Iranian commanders may not have time to distinguish their targets,” he said, adding: “At present, the focus remains squarely on the prospects of a broader deal.”

An exemption has not guaranteed safety. On October 30, the Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda was struck by “unidentified objects” in the Gulf, said its owner, Qatar Gas Transport Company.

More than 120 commercial ships have been hit in the region since the war began, with October being the worst month, according to data from the International Maritime Organization and United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.

Iranian forces say five oil tankers and a tugboat have caught fire in several incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.

At least five tankers have been damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian forces said, making clear that shipping would remain in peril as long as the United States and Israel’s war on the country is unresolved.

Since the war on Iran began in late February, Tehran has severely restricted traffic through the strategic waterway, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil consumption.

“Last night … a large oil tanker attempting to pass through the illegal passageway south of the Strait of Hormuz suffered a fire after striking a mine and was brought to a halt,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) told the Fars news agency on Thursday.

“Another supertanker was halted by a massive fire while exiting the eastern Strait of Hormuz. A tugboat that had approached the supertanker to extinguish the fire also caught fire,” the IRGC added.

The Iranian army later said three more tankers were hit by naval mines and caught fire.

“Early this morning, a violating oil tanker – navigating through an unsafe area east of the Strait of Hormuz – caught fire and came to a halt after striking a naval mine,” the army said, according to the official IRNA news agency.

“Today at around noon, two more oil tankers struck naval mines and caught fire in the unsafe waters east of the Strait of Hormuz,” said another army statement carried by IRNA.

Separately, the British military said a tanker was struck by two projectiles off Qatar’s coast.

The vessel was hit about 50 nautical miles (about 93 kilometres) north of Qatar’s ⁠Madinat ash-Shamal on Wednesday at 23:20 GMT, the ⁠United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said on Thursday.

UKMTO did not identify the tanker or which country’s flag it was sailing under. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack.

In an incident last week, a Qatari tanker was hit by “unidentified objects” while sailing in the Gulf.

The liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier Al Mayeda was hit on October 30, the Qatar Gas Transport Company (Nakilat) said on Sunday.

No crew members were injured, and there ‌was no environmental impact, the company said, adding that the vessel remained ‌safe and ‌operational while the impact was being assessed.

Attacks on tankers in the Gulf are still running close to a record pace.

UKMTO said in a report last month that it was “struggling to accurately report” the true number of attacks as the majority of ships now refuse to report them.

Qatar has stepped up mediation efforts to resume talks on ending the war in recent days.

Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ spokesperson said on Tuesday that ⁠both sides were reviewing proposals ⁠put forward by mediators, with talks continuing.

But unnamed Pentagon officials and military commanders told The New York Times on Wednesday that thousands of US air and naval forces on more than a dozen ships and at bases around the Middle East and in the US are poised to resume major combat operations against Iran on President Donald Trump’s orders.

Iranian government and military leaders, however, have warned of repercussions if the US or Israel pursue further military action.

On Wednesday, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said there should not be “even the slightest inclination towards submission” to the US, which he said would remain hostile towards Iran no matter which party was in power.

IRGC Ground Force commander Brigadier General Mohammad Karami said on Wednesday that the continuation of “hostile and brutal actions by Iran’s enemies” would lead to “further Iranian victories and greater national pride”, while accelerating the expulsion of foreign powers from the region and the collapse of Israel.

Seoul proposes expanding its Cheonghae unit’s operational areas to waters near Duqm in Oman amid pressure from US to support war on Iran.

South Korea plans to expand its anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia to waters closer to the Strait of Hormuz, the Ministry of National Defense said, following pressure from the United States to provide support for the war on Iran.

The government will ask the National Assembly to extend the mandate of the Cheonghae unit, a naval task force due to expire at the end of 2026, a Defence Ministry spokesperson told the Reuters news agency on Thursday. The request would also widen the unit’s area of operations to waters near the port of Duqm in Oman, about 650km (403 miles) from the Strait of Hormuz.

The motion will go to lawmakers after the cabinet endorses it next week, the Yonhap news agency reported.

The Cheonghae unit has patrolled the Gulf of Aden since 2009 to protect commercial shipping. Its latest contingent sailed from South Korea’s Busan on October 2 on board the Chungmugong Yi Sun-sin, a 4,400-tonne destroyer carrying a maritime helicopter and about 300 service members.

Under the new mandate, the unit would push northeast into the Arabian Sea south of Oman, roughly doubling its operating radius to about 1,930km (1,200 miles), officials told Yonhap.

It would add 75 personnel, including a bomb disposal team, and a P-8A maritime patrol aircraft to help monitor shipping routes.

Officials told Yonhap the mission would be strictly noncombat and the unit would remain under South Korean command, operating independently of allied forces.

“The enhancement of the Cheonghae unit’s mission is to protect our citizens and safeguard our economic interests,” a defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Yonhap.

“Operations will remain restricted to the open waters south of Oman, and the maritime patrol aircraft will be prohibited from targeting or monitoring Iranian territory, territorial waters or the interior of the Strait of Hormuz during their missions,” he said.

The latest proposal follows pressure from US President Donald Trump for Seoul to support Washington’s war on Iran.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung pledged in April to help safeguard shipping during talks led by the United Kingdom and France. In September, he said he would avoid any deployment that could draw South Korea into the war.

Opposition lawmakers have argued against an expansion of the Cheonghae unit’s mission.

“Expanding the Cheonghae unit’s operational area amounts to a troop deployment,” Kim Joon-hyung, the floor leader of the small left-leaning Rebuilding Korea Party, said at a news conference at the National Assembly in Seoul on Wednesday.

“It is not a clever solution but a deceptive workaround.”

Kim warned that an expanded mission could expose South Korean forces to Iranian retaliation, even if Seoul insisted that its personnel would not take part in combat.

“If President Donald Trump boasts that South Korea was the first country in the world to dispatch troops, we would become the first country to join the Middle East war,” he said.

Iranian media report several explosions in Qeshm Island and Bandar Lengeh, as US media say the US military carried out the strikes.

Several explosions have been heard on Iran’s Qeshm Island, as media outlets in the United States reported that the US military carried out what officials called “defensive strikes” in the Strait of Hormuz.

The blasts came in rapid succession late on Monday, according to Iran’s state-owned IRNA news agency. Witnesses told the agency they saw two planes flying over the island, located off Iran’s southern coast near the Strait of Hormuz.

The semi-official Fars news agency said explosions were also heard in the port city of Bandar Lengeh, coming from the direction of the sea.

The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported that the US military carried out the strikes.

Some officials told the Journal the strikes were defensive, aimed at restricting Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. One official said Washington had deliberately kept the campaign quiet to avoid signalling a return to major combat operations.

The Associated Press news agency also cited a US official as saying the US had conducted defensive strikes against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. The official said that “Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against U.S. assets” had been targeted.

Reporters with Fox News and Axios said the attacks were in response to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) firing at a US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Citing a US official, Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin said the incident did not mark “the start of expanded strikes by the US”.

There was no immediate comment from authorities in Iran or the US.

Earlier on Monday, the IRGC claimed it had captured two US reconnaissance drones south of Qeshm, using electronic warfare systems, and destroyed an MQ-9 drone east of the Strait of Hormuz.

The alleged US attacks come on the eve of crucial midterm elections in the US, with President Donald Trump’s Republican Party fighting to keep control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

They also come amid intensifying diplomatic efforts to prevent renewed US attacks on Iran.

Trump, writing on his Truth Social platform on Monday, suggested that a deal with Iran could happen soon.

“Oil Prices are dropping like a rock, down almost $10 a Barrel, a record, because people feel that there will not be a war with Iran,” he wrote. “Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!”

Earlier, when asked by reporters if he was considering striking Iran ⁠after Tuesday’s midterm elections, Trump replied “no”.

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei had said Tehran’s demands for peace had been clearly communicated to Washington and “the ball is in the US court”.

He said Iran’s proposed plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had been condensed and could be implemented within two days if Washington met Tehran’s conditions. These included the US lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports and securing an end to hostilities, paving the way for the reopening of the strait and renewed negotiations.

US president warns Iran to make a deal, as IRGC says two tankers have hit mines and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz.

A small boat in the Strait of Hormuz approached a tanker and placed two explosive devices on the hull above the waterline, causing a blast that started a fire in the engine room, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reported. The attack on the Dubai-owned tanker Louise 1 was carried out by Iranians using limpet mines, Financial Times reported. The incident took place Thursday and was the first of its kind since June 2019, when a Japanese and a Norwegian ship were hit with limpets, the publication noted.

This is the first indication of the successful use of these mines during the current Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) wave of strikes against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz following Operation Epic Fury. The attack also highlights the challenges of keeping ships safe in a busy and complex littoral.

“The apparent ability of a small craft to approach a transiting tanker, deploy explosive devices and withdraw presents a significant security concern, particularly in the Strait’s congested shipping lanes,” Greece-based maritime ​risk management group Marisks said ​on ⁠Friday, Reuters reported.

TWZ covered the 2019 attacks extensively, including sharing the following video showing an Iranian Navy or IRGC fast boat going back to remove a dud limpet mine from the Japanese-owned Kokuka Courageous’s damaged hull.

Limpet Mine Attack in the Gulf of Oman: JUNE 13, 2019

Earlier Friday morning, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the waterway was cleared of sea mines. He was not addressing the limpet mine claim.

He stated on X that after “we sank Iran’s navy earlier this year, we also successfully cleared the strait’s internationally recognized primary transit routes of Iranian sea mines, and today U.S. forces remain highly vigilant and present to ensure that all primary transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz remain free and clear.”

“This week we reached a significant milestone, having now assisted Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer,” Cooper added.

Recalling a recent flight over the Strait of Hormuz, Cooper noted that he “saw our U.S. assets in the air and on the water, including a squadron of advanced sea drones that were on patrol supporting a defensive layer. Here’s what I didn’t see: I didn’t see the IRGC out there at all.”

Also known as uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), the sea drones are part of an increasingly uncrewed armada of air, land and sea assets that are supporting the safe corridor through the Strait.

The USV type shown in the following video, a Saronic Corsair, made history twice in the battle against Iran. In July, the USVs were used as a strike weapon in combat for the first time by the U.S. A month earlier, a Saronic Corsair USV rescued the crew of a U.S. Army AH-64 Apache that crashed in the Gulf of Oman after it was downed by Iran.

Despite the heavy presence of CENTCOM forces, this month is turning out to be particularly dangerous for shipping in the region.

“October has seen the highest number of ship attacks on record,” Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said last week, according to the BOE Report, an oil industry publication. “Raydan, who maintains the institute’s interactive shipping incident map, has recorded 28 confirmed and reported attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways in October and 113 since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.”

These strikes, combined with ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, have already placed tremendous pressure on a global economy relying heavily on fossil fuel from the region. As of Friday morning, Brent crude topped $117 per barrel, the highest level in more than four years, according to OilPrice.com.

The American oil industry, meanwhile, is making a fortune on this situation.

“The war with Iran has been very lucrative for American oil companies, which have earned more than $130 billion in profit as people pay much higher prices for gasoline, diesel and other fuel,” The New York Times reported on Friday. “That is a conservative estimate based on the performance of more than 50 large U.S. oil and gas companies, most of them producers or refiners, in the six months from April through September. It does not reflect profits earned in March, the first month of the war, or in October.”

“The United States oil and gas business is making hundreds of billions of dollars,” Trump said at an Oct. 24 campaign rally, describing how the war is affecting the industry.

TRUMP on HIGH GAS PRICES: We’re making money like we’ve never made before. They’ll say: President Trump is bragging about all the money they’re making while people are suffering at the pump. I don’t give a damn. We’re making a freaking fortune. pic.twitter.com/KZ2pYsTPyR

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 25, 2026

The Latest

Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday in another bid to try to pull the Middle East region back from the brink of war. The visit takes place as the U.S. and Israel are gearing up for a possible new round of strikes against Iran that could come as soon as next week after America’s midterm elections.

U.S. President Donald Trump has frequently stated that he could order new strikes, likely with Israeli assistance, after control of the next Congress is settled. While Trump could be gearing up to hit Iran again, leaks about war planning could also be messaging to compel Tehran back to the bargaining table.

“It’s going to get wrapped up soon,” Trump said Friday morning in an interview with Kansas City radio station KCMO. “We need a guarantee there’ll never be a nuclear weapon.”

Whether this latest Qatari effort can stop the clock winding down toward a resumption of hostilities remains questionable. Washington and Tehran seem far apart in their goals for achieving an agreement to stave off war.

The U.S. wants nuclear issues ​included from the start of negotiations while Tehran ​demands that the U.S. first end its port blockade ‌and ⁠lift oil export sanctions, Reuters reported on Friday.

A senior Iranian official has already dismissed a plan presented by Qatar as “unacceptable,” the outlet added. “The proposal presented by Qatar sets ​a seven-day timeline addressing both Tehran’s and Washington’s concerns, laying out daily confidence-building steps that each side must take,” the news outlet reported on Oct. 28, citing an official briefed on the negotiations.

The Qatari mediation is the latest diplomatic effort to prevent new fighting. On Monday, major regional powers met in Tehran to find a peaceful way forward.

Regardless, American forces are locked and loaded for a possible new round of strikes against Iran. Israel also continues ramping up attack plans in coordination with the U.S. in the wake of a so-far inconclusive national election that could result in the end of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s career.

“Cooper rarely briefs Trump in person, so the meeting could signal that the U.S. is moving closer to significant military operations,” the publication stated. “He met with the president in July, when the two huddled with Hegseth and Caine on Air Force One in Delaware.”

CENTCOM declined comment when we asked to confirm the meeting as described. The Pentagon referred us to the White House, and the White House did not respond to our request for comment.

While the Journal offered no specific details about the plans discussed at the White House meeting, previous reporting has suggested Trump is seeking a short, intense bombing campaign.

“According to several people familiar with the war plans, any new US-Israeli assault would be intense, lasting some three days and targeting nuclear facilities, regime assets and civilian infrastructure including power plants,” Financial Times reported on Thursday.

A top Democratic senator said he was briefed on plans and was shocked by what he heard.

“I will just say this: their plan is insane,” Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut said. “It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.”

“There’s been open reporting as to what we may be planning and the civilian infrastructure that we may be targeting,” Murphy added. “The plan that they have developed will lead, in my view, to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that will be devastating for our security interests.”

Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election.

Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane. It will not achieve objectives and will set off a new cycle of escalation. pic.twitter.com/adWJfHVIok

— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) October 29, 2026

As the White House continues to put the finishing touches on new attack plans, the U.S. is bolstering its forces in the Middle East as we noted at the top of this story.

“The U.S. military is sending an additional Patriot system to Israel from Texas to beef up its missile defenses in the country, according to flight-tracking data and two officials with knowledge of the movement,” the Journal reported on Wednesday. “The U.S. has also moved troops off bases in the Middle East where they were vulnerable in preparation for an escalation.”

“U.S. forces in the region have been restocking their munitions, and bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes, some of the officials said.”

As we previously noted, there have been other signs that a major new round of U.S. and/or Israeli strikes on Iran might be looming on the horizon. Fox News reported that the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and the rest of its carrier strike group, as well as the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group carrying the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), are heading to the Middle East, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

“The ships will arrive in the Middle East by the end of November,” the officials said, according to a post on X from Fox’s Jennifer Griffin on Tuesday. “These new deployments will add about 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Middle East.”

You can find out more about the locations of the U.S. Navy’s fleet of flattops in our “Where Are The Aircraft Carriers?” feature.

There have been indications of increased U.S. military air activity in the Middle East recently, as well. Observers have called attention to the particularly significant influx of aerial refueling tankers to bases in the region, as well as in Europe, which would be critical to any new major air campaign.

US Tanker Fleet Update 21/OCT/2026 #IranWar‌

Overall numbers across CENTCOM and Europe have now stabilised back to the levels they were at back at the start of September, around 190-195. There are a few tankers dotted around at other sites temporarily (Glasgow Prestwick and… pic.twitter.com/taKi8op7Tv

— DefenceGeek 🇬🇧 (@DefenceGeek) October 21, 2026

America and Israel struck hard at Iranian logistics during Operation Epic Fury, and the U.S. Navy maintains a blockade on Iranian ports. Still, the IRGC has managed to bring in materiel critical to its drone and missile programs.

A new Reuters investigation examines how.

“Iran has created a secret network of military agencies with global reach to import at least $2 billion in hardware, explosives and heavy-duty trucks since January 2025, evading both the US naval blockade and Western sanctions,” the investigation found. “Hidden behind names starting with the letters MOD, for the Ministry of Defense, are more than 5,000 agencies that form a formidable financial and military machine. Their financial footprints are on bills of lading and other shipping data dating back to 2016. Some are tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and to business conglomerates known as bonyads that are controlled by Iran’s elite.”

“The findings offer a window into one of the war’s great mysteries,” the outlet explained. “How is the IRGC replenishing its missile and drone arsenals while firing them in their thousands?”

Amid events in the Persian Gulf region, fighting between the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen and Saudi Arabia rages on.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed a Houthi drone near Islam’s holiest city, a claim the Houthis denied.

On Thursday, the Houthis claimed attacks on a half dozen targets across the kingdom, including oil facilities and airports. Saudi officials, for their part, said they intercepted ballistic missiles.

Adding to regional jitters, there were fresh reports of explosions near Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz Thursday night. However, these incidents often turn out to be air defense activity, warning shots fired at ships or nothing at all.

CENTCOM on Friday pushed back against claims that the command acknowledged attacks on Iranian targets.

“The reported notion that CENTCOM claimed any recent attacks is false,” Capt. Tim Hawkins, the command’s spokesman, told TWZ.

For now, the world is waiting nervously to see whether the Middle East again erupts into war. We should have a clearer picture in the coming days.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Iran’s top diplomat tells Al Jazeera Tehran has reached a plan with Qatari mediators to reopen Hormuz within two days if the US meets its conditions.

Fires reported on three tankers in Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman, as masked settlers attack European politicians in occupied West Bank.

The UK Foreign Office says it advises against “all but essential travel” to Saudi Arabia, after attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on the country.

Oil prices gain as Houthi strikes hit Saudi Aramco and Tehran vows new tactics against shipping in Hormuz.

Without a quick deal to move fertiliser through the strait, agricultural productivity would ‘significantly drop’.

A senior United Nations official has warned that parts of Asia and Africa could face a food security crisis unless Iran and the United States quickly agree on a UN-backed plan to move fertiliser through the embattled Strait of Hormuz.

UN ⁠Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva said on Wednesday that it was “absolutely critical” that the two countries agree to the proposal within weeks as planting season approaches. It calls for a UN-staffed coordination centre in Oman to help register vessels and oversee their safe passage in the waterway, through which a large portion of key global fertiliser inputs traditionally flow.

“If we miss that planting season, the productivity of agriculture would significantly drop and the impact on prices will significantly increase,” Moreira da Silva told Reuters on the sidelines of International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

Farmers operate strict crop calendars, and even slight delays could severely affect yield.

‘Negligible’ fertiliser shipments

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, with Iran targeting vessels in the strait and the US and Iran exchanging fire in and around the waterway.

The disruption has hit global supplies of urea, the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser, as well as seaborne sulphur, a key input. Before the war, roughly a third of global urea shipments and nearly half of seaborne sulphur passed through the strait.

Although some ships have been able to sail through amid the crisis, fertiliser products have made up a “very negligible” share of moving cargo, according to the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute.

Moreira da Silva said the UN-backed fertiliser mechanism, drawn up in March, could be activated within seven to 10 days if both Iran and the US agree.

Under the plan, UN monitors would work alongside local authorities at Gulf ports to verify cargo loading. Ships would be tracked during transit, and additional inspections could ⁠be carried out if countries raised concerns about a vessel or its cargo, said Moreira da Silva. He did not say why the US and Iran have not yet agreed.

The passage of only five vessels per day through the Strait of Hormuz could keep fertiliser supplies flowing to countries in critical need, he added.

‘Let us do our job’

The UN mechanism could work alongside negotiations for a “comprehensive deal” to restore freedom of navigation in the strait, Moreira da Silva said.

Iran and the US have exchanged proposals through intermediaries since a June interim ceasefire collapsed. Efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled over Tehran’s conditions and Washington’s insistence on addressing Iran’s nuclear programme from the outset.

“What we are telling them is, while you continue your discussions towards a comprehensive deal, let us work, let us do our job,” said Moreira da Silva.

His plea comes amid growing concern that fertiliser shortages could hit global food supplies.

In May, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warned that fertiliser scarcity could tighten food supplies from late 2026 into 2027, and would likely hit countries facing climate or other crises much harder.

In South Asia, where most rely on imported fertiliser, farmers are already struggling because of soaring costs and fertiliser scarcity. On Wednesday, farmers in Spain took to the streets to protest rising production costs amid high oil and fertiliser prices.