crisis

Switzerland’s glaciers are rapidly receding due to a combination of winters with too little snow and record-high temperatures across Europe this summer, scientists say. In all, one of the world’s top ski destinations has lost nearly one-fifth of its glacial ice in just five years.

In a report (PDF) published by the Swiss Glacier Monitoring Network (GLAMOS) and the Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation of the Swiss Academy of Sciences (SCNAT) on Thursday, researchers said Swiss glaciers lost 5.5 percent of their ice volume over the hydrologic year ending September 30, 2026, and nearly 20 percent since 2021.

Why is Switzerland, famed for its Alpine terrain and winter sports, losing its glaciers and what does this mean for the country?

Here’s what we know.

What have scientists discovered?

In September, a GLAMOS team visited 23 glaciers in Switzerland to record end-of-summer measurements of ice melt and snow accumulation.

Visiting one glacier named Scex Rouge in the Western Swiss Alps in early September, GLAMOS chief Matthias Huss, one of the report’s researchers, told the Reuters news agency that a measuring pole, about four metres (13 feet) high, was drilled into the ice in July to provide the team with a point of reference.

“Now when we have come back here, we saw the pole was out by three metres [10ft]. So just in August and September of this year, even excluding the heatwaves of June and July, we have lost three metres of ice at an elevation of almost 3,000 metres [9,843ft],” he explained.

“This clearly indicates these conditions that we had this summer, they are just inconsistent with the survival of these small glaciers in the Alps,” he added.

Why are glaciers in Switzerland losing ice?

According to the report, the total mean thickness of individual glaciers in Switzerland has fallen by between 2.5 and four metres in 2026. At glacier tongues – narrow glacial extensions of a glacier which project from land into a body of water – it had decreased by as much as 10 metres in some places over the summer.

“We can clearly attribute the massive ice loss to the warming, and thus anthropogenic [caused by humans] climate change. The summer has been the hottest on record in Switzerland. In addition, there was little snow in winter, and therefore the glaciers were poorly protected when the heat started,” GLAMOS chief Huss told Al Jazeera.

He noted that while their measurements have indicated that the melting has affected all glaciers in Switzerland equally, the effects were most visible on smaller glaciers.

“Those shrink very quickly and sometimes even completely disappeared. Also, large glaciers lost an enormous quantity of ice, but they remain impressive,” he added.

The report’s scientists warned that the glaciers also lost a total of about 2.2 trillion litres of water (581 billion gallons) between July and September alone.

“This is more than four times the annual drinking water consumption of all Swiss households,” the report’s researchers said and warned this could impact the country’s future water supply.

What does this mean for Switzerland?

Switzerland is a country known for winter sports and Alpine tourism, which depends on the glaciers. About 4 percent of the country’s entire workforce is employed in the tourism sector.

“This affects tourism and also how we perceive the mountains – they are no longer white but increasingly grey and black,” he told Al Jazeera.

He added that the water provided by glaciers is also important for the economy. “It is used to fill up hydropower lakes that produce clean energy, and supplies the biggest streams of Europe,” he said.

“We’re not yet seeing the full consequences as glaciers are still around and they contribute water when we need it. But this potential is soon being lost,” he added.

Harry Zekollari, a glaciologist and associate research professor at the Department of Water and Climate at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, shared a similar view.

He stressed that glaciers are important natural water suppliers, as they provide water when people need it most – in summer, when it is hot and dry.

“With climate change, glaciers initially provide more water during summer as they rapidly melt. However, as glaciers become smaller, there is less ice to be melted, and as such the water supply in summer decreases. This peak in water supply has now been passed for glaciers in the European Alps, meaning that we expect glaciers to provide less and less water in the coming years,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Glacier changes can also cause natural hazards, and since most of the ice lost turns into water that reaches the oceans, the consequences of glacier loss [in Switzerland and elsewhere] will be felt for coastlines all around the globe,” he added.

Is there a solution?

Yes. According to Zekollari, in order to save as much glacier ice as possible in Switzerland, the world needs to stabilise rising temperatures as soon as possible.

“Projections for the European Alps and Swiss glaciers show that if we are able to rapidly stop emissions, we may still be able to save about one-third of their ice mass. However, in a case with strong warming, these glaciers are projected to lose more than 90 percent of their volume by 2100,” he said.

He noted that the situation is less grim globally as some glaciers in other regions are more persistent.

“However, even globally, future emissions play a big role and will decide whether we lose about 25 percent of glacier mass by 2100 – that’s the good case, with limited warming – or rather 50 percent – the bad case, with more warming,” he said.

“The losses in the longer term – past 2100 – are even larger due to the long response of glaciers, but also here it is the future warming that decides how much remains. Every 0.1 degree Celsius warming matters.”

Ukraine’s F-16 fleet is facing growing pressure from the demands of the air war, with a shortage of air-to-air missiles now compounded by what appears to be a serious bottleneck in the critical maintenance system supporting the aging aircraft.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that more than half of Ukraine’s F-16s are currently in what a Western source described as “maintenance limbo.” The same source told the newspaper that, at the current rate of operations and maintenance, Ukraine could exhaust the remainder of its available aircraft by the end of the year.

The Ukrainian Air Force declined to provide the WSJ with figures on the status of the fleet. Open-source analysis suggests that Ukraine may have received around 40-50 F-16s so far. However, a proportion of these are held back for training elsewhere in Europe, while there have been five confirmed losses. Approximately 110 F-16s have now been promised by a coalition comprising Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway.

The report follows TWZ’s recent reporting on a separate constraint affecting the F-16 force: Ukraine is struggling to maintain adequate stocks of air-to-air missiles for its fighters. AIM-9 Sidewinders and AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) have been heavily used against Russian cruise missiles and drones, and Ukrainian F-16 pilots have reportedly had to ration their missile shots. Aircraft have increasingly had to rely on their internal 20mm cannon when suitable missiles are not available. This is a far from ideal substitute, as you can read about here, but Kyiv is reportedly now negotiating for tens of thousands of additional rounds of 20mm ammunition.

Ukrainian F-16s have apparently been carrying laser-guided 70mm Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets, which should provide an extremely valuable, lower-cost option for engaging long-range drones and subsonic cruise missiles. The exact status of this weapon in Ukrainian hands is unclear, but there is so far limited evidence of extensive use by its F-16s, at least in the public domain.

All these problems are closely related because the same high operational tempo that is consuming Ukraine’s missile stocks is also putting additional hours on the already well-worn F-16 airframes.

The aircraft have become a critical important component of Ukraine’s air-defense effort, particularly as Russia has expanded its use of increasingly sophisticated one-way attack drones, as we wrote about only yesterday. WSJ reports that Russia has launched around 2,000 jet-powered drones against Ukraine this month, compared with approximately 350 in June. The newer, jet-powered drones can reportedly reach speeds of up to 375 miles per hour, making them more difficult for Ukraine’s interceptor drones to engage and increasing the importance of conventional fighters. At the same time, the stocks of effectors for ground-based air defense systems are being reduced, in some cases to a critical level, increasing the reliance on crewed fighters to take up the slack.

F-16s are well-suited to the counter-drone and counter-cruise missile mission, but using them extensively against large numbers of relatively inexpensive targets presents a difficult sustainment problem. In fact, the lower speed and altitude differential between the F-16 and a jet-powered drone, compared to a propeller-driven one, makes the higher-performance weapon an easier target for the crewed fighter in most scenarios.

However, every sortie adds flight hours to the aircraft, while each missile engagement draws from an inventory that Ukraine and its Western partners have to replenish. As the aircraft accumulate hours, they reach scheduled inspection and maintenance intervals, increasing demand on a maintenance network that is already supporting a fleet operating under wartime conditions.

The United States has established a substantial support arrangement for that purpose. In January, the Pentagon awarded Belgian company Sabena Aerospace Engineering a contract with a ceiling of approximately $235.5 million for intermediate- and depot-level maintenance of Ukrainian F-16 aircraft and engines, together with associated material-management support. The contract runs through January 2029, with approximately $69.7 million initially obligated.

The contract provides an indication of the scale of the infrastructure required to keep the Ukrainian F-16 fleet operational. It also highlights why the reported turnaround times in Belgium are significant. A typical phase-inspection that would normally take approximately two to six weeks in the United States is reportedly taking as long as 40 weeks in Belgium.

A 40-week turnaround does not necessarily mean that an aircraft spends 40 weeks continuously undergoing a phase inspection. The overall period an aircraft is unavailable can also include waiting for parts, additional repairs, scheduling, and other work. It is unclear exactly how many Ukrainian F-16s are currently affected by these various factors.

At the same time, the reported turnaround times do point to a substantial capacity problem. Ukraine operates a relatively small F-16 fleet, so aircraft that remain unavailable for extended periods have a disproportionate effect on the number of fighters that can actually be generated for combat missions. Its mission spectrum also includes air-to-ground sorties, putting more demand on the hard-pressed F-16 fleet.

F-16 fighters are the best way to counter new Russian jet-powered drones.

Ukrainian F-16 aces have shot down about 2,500 drones of all types and about 650 cruise missiles.

Jet drones are exactly the kind of target F-16s shoot down very well, and it usually costs $25,000 or… pic.twitter.com/ajxYN9K0yK

— Slava 🇺🇦 (@Heroiam_Slava) September 30, 2026

The F-16s have finite airframe lives, require increasingly substantial inspections as they accumulate hours, and depend on a supply chain for engines, components and other parts. The missiles used to destroy the targets are another finite resource. It should also be recalled that the jets supplied to Ukraine are among the oldest still in operational service. Although upgraded to F-16AM/BM standard, the airframes have accumulated a lot of hours and fatigue.

There is an additional complication with the air-to-air missile inventory, too. AMRAAM is not used only by Ukrainian F-16s, but also employed by its NASAMS ground-based air-defense systems. Sidewinders, too, have both air-launched and surface-launched applications. The same broader Western supply chain therefore has to support both fighter operations and some of Ukraine’s surface-to-air missile systems. Stocks of both AMRAAM and Sidewinder have been eroded by Ukraine, as well as by combat actions in the Middle East.

Southern Ukraine, a Ukrainian NASAMS surface to air missile system intercepts a Russian drone with an (SL)AIM-120B AMRAAM. pic.twitter.com/LTeDDHaECp

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 22, 2025

At the same time, Ukraine is continuing to receive additional F-16s. Belgium has said it will transfer three more aircraft to Ukraine before the end of this year. More aircraft will increase the potential size of the force, but they will also add to the requirement for spare parts, engines, technicians and depot capacity.

“There is an important agreement ​with Belgium on the transfer of three F-16 ​fighter jets by the end of this year,” ⁠Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X. “We will work to receive ​these aircraft through an accelerated procedure.”

There is an important agreement with Belgium on the transfer of three F-16 fighter jets by the end of this year. We will work to receive these aircraft through an accelerated procedure. We have already received urgent deliveries of F-16 ammunition from Belgium and other…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 29, 2026

Zelensky said Ukraine had ​already received “urgent deliveries” of F-16 weapons from Belgium and Spain, among other countries.

The alternatives to the F-16 are also limited in the near term. Ukraine continues to operate the Soviet-era MiG-29 Fulcrum and a small number of Su-27 Flankers, but these aircraft are themselves aging and are also required for strike missions. In their favor, the Soviet types were designed around a different concept of operations, making them easier to maintain in the field, and Ukraine has its own support infrastructure to sustain them.

The French Mirage 2000-5F force provides another Western option, but deliveries have been relatively limited, and additional aircraft are arriving incrementally rather than in numbers that can quickly compensate for a major reduction in F-16 availability. The longer-term fighter replacement plan is more ambitious. Sweden has agreed to provide 16 Gripen C/D fighters, with the first aircraft expected in early 2027, while a separate agreement covers the purchase of 16 new Gripen E fighters whose deliveries are not scheduled to begin until early 2029.

🇫🇷🇺🇦 French-delivered Dassault Mirage 2000-5F fighter jet in service of the Ukrainian Air Force during flight somewhere over Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/eBCjtx2Gjc

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) May 17, 2026

That leaves the F-16 as the principal Western fighter capability available to Ukraine for the immediate future, increasing the significance of any prolonged disruption to its maintenance pipeline or its supply of air-to-air weapons. Ukraine needs enough aircraft to maintain a meaningful combat presence, enough missiles to arm them for the missions they are being asked to fly, and enough maintenance capacity to keep those aircraft available as their flight hours accumulate.

All this is becoming more important as Russia’s aerial campaign evolves. If the increase in faster jet-powered drones continues, Ukraine may have to devote still more fighter sorties to countering them at the very same time that a large portion of its existing F-16 fleet is reportedly unavailable and its stocks of air-to-air missiles are under serious pressure.

Contact the autjor: thomas@thewarzone.com

Siegfried Muresan’s loss of the confidence motion increases the prospect for snap elections.

Romania’s pro-European Prime Minister-designate Siegfried Muresan has failed to win a parliamentary vote of confidence, prolonging a political crisis seen as a boost for the rising far right.

Muresan, a liberal European Parliament member who was the latest of three designated prime ministers, secured only 182 votes out of the 233 required to secure the confidence motion on Wednesday, according to the official count.

The far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) largely boycotted the vote.

The 45-year-old had proposed what he described as a “reform-oriented” governing programme under his centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL), which teamed up with the Save Romania Union party, or USR, and the small ethnic Hungarian UDMR party.

President Nicusor Dan said he would nominate a new prime minister candidate on Monday afternoon, after holding talks with the leaders of the parliamentary parties, to avoid snap elections.

Romania saw the collapse of a pro-European coalition government in May, when governing social democrats, together with the opposition far right, ousted liberal Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan in a no-confidence motion at that time.

The far right, which comprises about a third of Parliament, threatened to impeach the president if he does not call early elections once the conditions are met.

Romania, a member of the EU and NATO that borders Ukraine, has not held snap elections since the fall of communism in 1989.

Political analyst Cristian Pirvulescu told the AFP news agency that snap elections would lead to another fragmented Parliament, but with an emboldened far right.

“Early elections mean that, from the moment they are called, it would take four months before a new government could be formed,” Pirvulescu told AFP. “Due to political instability, Romania finds itself in a very complicated economic situation. Four months is already a very long time.”

The country of 19 million has been struggling for months with the highest public deficit and inflation in the European Union.

Beef prices are soaring in China. Across the Pacific Ocean in the United States, cattle farmers are complaining that their businesses are becoming increasingly unsustainable. And in India, poultry rearers are slashing their production targets because they cannot afford feed.

More than 90 percent of the world’s population eats meat in one form or another — and a looming meat crisis threatens to affect what they buy at the market, what they cook at home, and what’s served on the table.

At the heart of this is a chain of decisions and uncertainties that consumers rarely see. A cow has to be raised for years before it can become beef. Chickens need feed, much of it tied to global grain and soya bean markets. Farmers need land, water and weather conditions that allow them to keep animals alive and productive.

When any link in this chain is disrupted, a spiralling crisis ensues.

So what is putting the pressure on meat production, and what does it mean for billions of people around the world?

Declining cattle stocks in Brazil, US and China

Brazil, the US and China are the world’s three biggest beef producers, together supplying more than half of the world’s beef. But their cattle herds are shrinking at the same time.

According to a March estimate by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil’s total herd this year is estimated at 177.4 million cattle — a nearly 8 percent drop from 192.5 million in 2024.

Over in the US, cattle numbers are at a historic low.

The USDA counted 86.2 million cattle and calves on farms on January 1, 2026. The number of beef cows — the females needed to produce future calves — was 27.6 million, down 1 percent from a year earlier. The 2025 calf crop was also down 2 percent.

In China, the USDA estimated a cattle head count of 94 million in January 2026, down 14 percent from 105 million in January 2024.

In all three cases, beef production is also projected to be down in 2026.

The USDA predicts a 2 percent decline in Brazil’s beef production and a 5 percent fall in exports. As for the US, beef production in 2026 is likely to be 4 percent lower than last year. China’s total beef supply this year is projected to be 12 percent lower than 2024.

The decline in domestic production, coupled with shrinking supplies that can be imported, has sent prices soaring in China — the world’s largest beef consumer and importer.

What’s driving down cattle herds and beef production?

The reasons are many, and they vary from country to country.

Brazil counts China and the European Union as two major markets for its beef exports. But both have imposed import restrictions that have disincentivised Brazilian beef manufacturers. That is partly responsible for the country’s decreased cattle head count, according to an analysis by Augusto Neto at S&P Global, the market intelligence firm.

Additionally, Brazil is currently in what is known as a cattle reversion cycle — when rearers reduce the slaughter of animals and instead try to preserve their female stock to help rebuild their herd — according to the USDA.

In the US, droughts have hit 60 percent of the country’s cattle-rearing area, according to a report by Sampad Nandy of S&P Global. With grazing areas decreasing, feed costs have risen.

Three major organisations, representing breeders in the states of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, issued a joint statement this week arguing that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids were disrupting their already strained operations. The meat industry depends heavily on immigrant workers.

If beef prices are rising, shouldn’t rearers want to produce more beef?

In theory, yes. But in practice, high prices do not automatically mean that more cattle can be produced quickly.

Cattle production is constrained by biological supply cycles, Kenneth Foster, professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, told Al Jazeera. It can take a couple of years for a producer who receives a signal from the market to expand production and actually see the resulting animals enter the beef supply. The quickest way to rebuild a herd is to keep female cattle that might otherwise have been sold and use them for breeding. That is what Brazil is now doing.

But that creates a difficult economic calculation. A producer can sell an animal today at a high price, or keep it for breeding and wait for the next generation. That means carrying the costs and risks of keeping the animal while waiting for it to reproduce.

The result is a market in which strong demand and limited supply can persist even when prices are already high.

The USDA expects the cattle herd to begin rebuilding in the US, but the process is gradual.

The US and Brazil cases illustrate one of the central problems facing meat production: sometimes the constraint is not technology, land or money.

It is time.

Europe’s move from beef to poultry

Meanwhile, Europe presents a different picture. The continent is witnessing a structural change in what consumers are eating.

The EU produced about 42.7 million tonnes of meat in 2025. But EU meat production is projected to decline by about 3 percent between 2025 and 2035, with beef production projected to fall by 10 percent and pork by 7 percent. Poultry is the exception: production is projected to rise by 5 percent.

This shift is also visible in consumption.

Consumption of EU beef and pigmeat is projected to decline through 2035, while poultry consumption is expected to increase by 9 percent.

Beef and pork require longer production cycles and face different economic and environmental pressures. Poultry, by contrast, can respond much more quickly to changes in demand because chickens reach market weight within weeks rather than years.

That difference is becoming increasingly important. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook expects poultry to be the fastest-growing major meat category globally over the next decade, helped by its relatively low cost and short production cycle.

Europe is therefore becoming an example of how a meat system can adapt without simply producing more of everything. Some forms of meat become harder or more expensive to produce, while others expand to fill part of the space.

Poultry has problems too — as India shows

Yet the poultry industry faces its own challenges, with India offering an example.

In June, a large section of India’s poultry industry announced plans to cut production by 25 percent after soya meal prices rose by more than 40 percent in a month.

The decision was announced by the All India Poultry Breeders’ Association after producers faced sharply higher feed costs and a seasonal decline in demand. Producers also began culling parent breeder stocks — birds needed to produce future generations of poultry.

Soya meal is an important protein source in animal feed. When its price rises sharply, poultry producers face a choice: absorb higher costs, raise prices, or reduce the number of birds they produce.

In India’s case, producers chose to cut production.

The consequences extended beyond individual farms. The Reuters news agency reported in May that Indian soya meal prices had risen 41 percent in one month to a four-year high of 66,000 rupees ($687.5) per tonne. India subsequently cancelled 25,000 tonnes of soya meal export contracts and began turning to soya bean imports from African countries.

The takeaway: a shock in one part of the agricultural system can move quickly through the meat supply chain globally.

As farmers try to protect their livelihoods and families try to keep food on the table, changing climates, rising prices, shifting dietary preferences and growing trade barriers are together reshaping the future of meat — and what we eat.

Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate says Africa is paying a high price for a crisis it did not create. She has taken her fight for climate justice from the streets of Kampala to the halls of power. She has been front and centre in the global climate movement, urging world leaders to act, taking part in protests and speaking at international conferences about the dangers of global warming.

However, Nakate admits progress has been slow. As a UNICEF goodwill ambassador, she has seen firsthand how communities are affected, and insists the major polluters should be held accountable. She is determined to raise awareness about how global warming is affecting African countries in particular. She says the continent is often left out of discussions.

Nakate admits she sometimes feels hopeless about the state of the world, but she is encouraged by grassroots initiatives that are bringing about change.

Amid the worsening global energy crisis triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, European countries, desperate for alternative energy supplies, trade routes and partnerships, have looked across the Mediterranean for solutions.

As a result, governments across North Africa have started to reassess their strategic value. Algeria is in an especially strong position as an established gas supplier, while Egypt can offer infrastructure, refining capacity and access through the Suez Canal.

Libya has also seen its strategic value increase. It has around 48 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest in Africa, and produces 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. It also has substantial natural gas reserves.

Its oil reaches international markets through the Mediterranean, while the Greenstream gas pipeline connects its Mellitah complex directly to Europe.

Libya cannot replace the Gulf in terms of oil and gas exports, but it can become a major player in diversification efforts not just in Europe but elsewhere in the world. The challenge the country faces is how to take full advantage amid structural constraints and insecurity.

Energy insecurity at home

Libya is simultaneously a major energy exporter and an energy-insecure state. Although the country possesses vast oil and gas resources, Libyans experience regular electricity blackouts due to an inefficient domestic energy system.

More than 70 percent of Libyan gas production is consumed domestically, mostly for electricity generation. Production has struggled to meet both domestic needs and export commitments. Gas exports consequently fell year on year from around 200 billion cubic feet in 2019 to 35 billion in 2025, the lowest export levels in 22 years.

At the same time, the country is flaring at least 200 billion cubic feet of gas annually due to underdeveloped infrastructure. Gas that could generate electricity, support industry or increase exports is instead being wasted.

The International Monetary Fund has estimated Libya’s total energy subsidy burden at around $17bn, equivalent to roughly 35 percent of GDP – one of the largest in the world.

Much of these funds go into subsidising imported refined fuels, as domestic refining capacity is largely underdeveloped and cannot meet demand.

The domestic energy situation is compounded by political fragmentation, institutional disputes and periodic disruptions to production due to conflict.

Increasing exports without addressing these problems risks improving energy security abroad while neglecting it at home, and that is a recipe for more instability in an already fragile nation.

Opportunity or trap?

The global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war is surely a major opportunity for Libya to increase its revenues from hydrocarbons. But it also carries a risk.

As I pointed out during the 5th meeting of the Mediterranean Energy Experts Circle earlier this month, greater demand for Libyan oil and gas could reinforce the economic model the country has struggled to escape from for decades: producing hydrocarbons, exporting them, distributing the revenues and postponing structural reform.

This model does not allow Libya to capture the full economic potential of its resource wealth. It keeps the Libyan state stuck in the all too familiar “resource curse”, which promotes economic stagnation and inefficiency.

That is why when taking advantage of heightened demand for energy, it is crucial that Libya uses the proceeds to transform its energy system.

That means capturing flared gas, modernising electricity generation and transmission, expanding domestic refining where economically viable, reforming subsidies, investing seriously in renewable energy and participating in sustainable regional energy cooperation.

Libya’s National Sustainable Energy Strategy aims to have 22 percent of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2035, an ambitious target that requires major positive shifts in security and governance conditions. Increased revenue flows can help jump-start the process.

Another important consideration is how the country should approach heightened foreign interest. Libya’s first major oil and gas licensing round since 2007 was concluded in February, with the US’s Chevron, Italy’s Eni, QatarEnergy, Spain’s Repsol, Hungary’s MOL, Nigeria’s Aiteo, and Türkiye’s TPAO securing new licences.

Commercial and geopolitical interests are rarely completely separate in energy. For Libya, this creates bargaining power—if managed coherently by the Libyans. Rather than becoming an arena in which external actors compete for individual assets and relationships, Libya could use diversified partnerships to attract investment and technology while reducing dependence on any single partner.

From energy exporter to Mediterranean energy hub

The transformation Libya seeks should not be confined to its borders. Its strategic objective should be to become an integral player in a Mediterranean energy hub by expanding cooperation with neighbouring states and leveraging existing production capacities and infrastructure.

To Libya’s east, Egypt has a large electricity system and significant refining and processing capacity. To its west, Tunisia provides access towards the wider Maghreb and increasingly towards European markets. Libya sits between them with enormous hydrocarbon resources, considerable solar potential and existing energy connections with both neighbours.

Important steps have already been taken to deepen regional energy integration. In January, Egypt and Libya signed an energy cooperation agreement covering exploration and the development of crude-oil refining. The two countries are also discussing the construction of an 800km pipeline connecting Tobruk to Alexandria. The project is worth $1bn and would carry Libyan crude directly to Egyptian refineries.

Libya and Tunisia are also expanding cooperation. Earlier this month, the Libyan-Tunisian company Joint Oil opened an international licensing round covering around 3,000 square kilometres of shared offshore acreage and development of the cross-border Zarat oil and gas discovery. Formal awards are expected by the end of April 2027.

The risk here is that expanded cooperation could develop into dependence. How to avoid that is the lesson Libya can learn from the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The country still needs sufficient domestic electricity, refining and production capacity to protect itself. Regional integration should add alternatives rather than create new vulnerabilities: more markets, more electricity connections, more processing options and more export routes.

The objective should therefore be specialisation, connectivity and redundancy all achieved in the right sequence depending on needs and conditions.

A moment for strategic redesign

The Iran war has given Libya something potentially more valuable than temporarily higher hydrocarbon prices: renewed strategic relevance. But greater strategic relevance does not automatically make the country a more reliable energy partner.

Converting the former into the latter requires a radically different approach not just to the domestic oil and gas industry, but also to overall economic development and regional geopolitics.

Libya must use this moment to pursue strategic redesign: to increase production while recovering wasted gas, improve electricity infrastructure, develop refining and renewables, strengthen regional connections and cooperation, and use competition among international partners to attract investment.

Libya already has the resources and the geography to become an even bigger player in the energy market. The question is whether it can build the rest.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Demonstrators are demanding early elections and accuse Pedro Sanchez’s government of negligence.

Thousands of people have rallied in the Spanish capital to protest the government’s policy on irregular migration and its handling of a recent migrant influx into the North African enclave of Ceuta.

Saturday’s protest in Madrid was organised by right-wing civil society group Sociedad Civil Espanola and backed by the mainstream conservative People’s Party (PP) and far-right Vox.

According to the government, 20,000 people attended, while protest organisers put the turnout at 180,000.

At the end of July, more than 70,000 migrants stormed into the autonomous Spanish city of Ceuta from neighbouring Morocco, before most of them were returned. However, thousands remain stranded.

Demonstrators accused Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his government of failing to protect the borders of Ceuta.

They are calling for an early election to be held by mid-November, with Vox demanding Sanchez be tried for treason. Spain’s next general election is not due until August 2027.

PP’s secretary-general Miguel Tellado said there was a “widespread feeling that the government has not acted responsibly; there has been a dereliction of duty, extreme negligence”.

“Spanish society has to take to the streets to ask the government to defend our territorial integrity,” he added.

The July 30 and 31 surge of people into Ceuta led to unprecedented scenes and the deaths of dozens of migrants.

Sanchez said on Tuesday that Moroccan border control failed to adequately handle the incident and that an investigation was still under way, adding that Rabat had been asked for answers.

The Spanish government estimates that between 6,000 and 10,000 stranded migrants remain in Ceuta.

Vox leader Santiago Abascal is demanding that everyone who arrived in late July be deported to their country of origin.

Abascal said Ceuta remained “invaded because Sanchez continues to be Morocco’s servant”.

Spanish newspaper El Pais reported on Saturday that the government is planning to approve a decree on Tuesday to accelerate the return of migrants from Ceuta to Morocco.

The protest is the second under the March for Dignity banner. That demonstration was held in late May before the incident in Ceuta and attracted 40,000 protesters, according to the government.

Melissa Nathan, the crisis management public relations pro hired by actor-director Justin Baldoni amid his lengthy legal feud with actor Blake Lively, is in the hot seat after Baldoni’s former publicist claimed that Nathan played a key role in operating a network of anonymous “smear” websites.

The publicist, Stephanie Jones, filed an initial complaint in New York Supreme Court in December 2024, accusing Baldoni’s crisis PR team of waging a coordinated effort to undermine her and deflect blame for what she called a retaliatory smear campaign targeting Lively.

But new documents filed last week brought front and center a “key question from the outset of this case”: Who was behind the creation of anonymous websites that popped up in May 2024 and accused Jones of “holding clients hostage” and leaking their secrets?

Nathan did not immediately respond to The Times’ request for comment Friday. But in a deposition, she said she was absolutely not the mastermind behind the now-defunct stephaniejonesleaks.com.

In the recent filing, Jones claims she repeatedly sought communications that could support her suspicions about the website’s origin, and last week received documents from Katherine Case, a former employee of Jones’ PR firm, Jonesworks, who subsequently worked for Nathan’s crisis management firm, the Agency Group.

Those documents, the filing alleges, show Nathan repeatedly testified falsely about the websites, and confirm that “Melissa Nathan was directly involved in a scheme to utilize untraceable websites to destroy the reputation of her competitors and those adverse to her clients. Stephanie Jones and Jonesworks were among her victims.”

In alleged text messages between Nathan and Case included in court documents, Nathan appears to have offered Case “three or four grand” to make the website copy tarnishing Jones’ reputation “a lot more meaty” — “good enough for us to be able to point a journalist towards.”

Nathan also appears to direct Case to discuss “holding clients hostage” and detail how people are “scared of” Jones, the documents allege.

Nathan is alleged to have instructed Case to write copy that would “follow along the lines of a purported ‘whistleblower’ narrative.” In Case’s notes from a subsequent phone call, she allegedly wrote, “Copy for the website along the lines of — I can’t sit and watch this woman continue to do this, this is what she does … it’s now a time where I can speak my truth about what I saw there.”

The filing claims that a record from Zelle, a money-transferring service, shows a subsequent payment to Case in the amount of $4,000 from “Melissa E. Nathan.”

The websites weren’t a one-off, according to the filing. They were allegedly one of Nathan’s specialties, and a hot commodity among embattled celebrities.

Three months after the Jones website went live, Nathan allegedly texted “Pitch Perfect” star Rebel Wilson, who was involved in a dispute with producer Amanda Ghost over Wilson’s directorial debut, the 2024 musical “The Deb.”

“Nathan quoted Wilson $110,000 for an untraceable site with a satellite, ghost server, ghost hosting, full build, maintaining, and full algorithmic push across all platforms … for 3 months,” the filing alleges. “The next day Nathan texted Case, ‘Rebel wants a one of those sites.’ ”

People in Ceuta face harsh living conditions, overcrowding, limited aid, and alleged abuse while awaiting decisions about their future.

Ceuta, Spain – For more than a month, 21-year-old Anis Fadi, a university graduate and qualified accountant, has been sleeping in a makeshift shelter.

At the end of July, he crossed the border from Morocco to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, on the North African coast, along with about 70,000 others.

At his migrant camp on Trampolin Beach, he queues for hours each day for food at a Red Cross centre.

“I don’t even have a tent,” he told Al Jazeera. “We make shelter with old pieces of wood, sticks from broken branches, and whatever else we find here.”

When the wind blows, these makeshift shelters offer little protection, and soon the temperature will dip.

“There are a lot of people worse than me,” said Fadi.

The Spanish government estimates that between 6,000 and 10,000 who made the crossing remain stranded. Officials in Ceuta believe the figure is closer to 13,000 people.

About 5,000 – mostly women and children – have been given temporary accommodation by the authorities. The rest sleep outside.

Fadi said, as he waits for food in the heat, police officers with batons shout orders at the crowds.

“It’s a hard life here,” he said, but he does not regret leaving Morocco.

“Life was harder there for me. I didn’t see any future for myself.”

‘We are not criminals’

More than 100 people died in the crossing. Fadi said he swam for hours to reach Ceuta, believing it was a gateway to Europe, where he imagines a better life awaits.

He believes men like him who “have the skills … don’t have the chance”.

“We are not criminals,” he said, in response to the anti-migration rhetoric and protests that followed the crossing. “We just want to work.”

Right-wing European politicians have framed the Ceuta crossing as a threatening invasion.

In Spain, protests have erupted against the government’s handling of the crisis.

Ceuta is usually home to about 84,000 people. Its population almost doubled at the outset of this crisis. Though most have returned, the enclave has been struggling to cope with the pressure of hosting those who remain.

After a new temporary shelter opened up recently, offering space for about 1,700 people, it hit capacity within hours.

Claims of abuse

As humanitarian groups struggle to provide basic needs, Nolte Bauer, from Mission Lifeline International, said migrants also feel unsafe.

“Outside the official camps there is a lack of basic hygiene,” he said. “There is insufficient medical aid and the immediate danger of violence, especially at night.”

His organisation often receives reports of people being beaten.

Several people interviewed by Al Jazeera said they had been abused by men in military or police uniforms. Some were wounded, with cuts to the head or bruising around the body.

“These are racist people, these soldiers,” one man who requested anonymity told Al Jazeera. “They found me sleeping and they started to hit me without any reason. They broke one of my hands; they wanted to break the other one. They also beat me on my knees.”

Some said they were afraid to go to hospital, fearing they could be deported, and instead sought help from aid groups. NGO volunteers told Al Jazeera they had treated wounded men.

But Spanish authorities rejected any claims of abuse and discrimination, telling Al Jazeera that the police acts “with absolute respect for human rights”.

They say they are expanding accommodation and providing food and medical care while migrants are identified and their cases are processed.

The government has said the aim is to return to Morocco those who do not have a legal status to remain in Spain, while Ceuta’s leaders have repeatedly called on Madrid and Europe for more support.

Prime Minister Balendra Shah told the UN that world leaders must act on climate change.

Nepal’s Prime Minister Balendra Shah has appealed for action to combat the rising threat of climate change, calling the flood that devastated his country last month “a warning to the world”.

Shah made the comments during his address to the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Thursday night. He told the gathering that the August disaster “was not just a local tragedy”, asking them the question, “Have you really heard that warning?”

Political leaders “have been negligent to translate those warnings in action at the speed and scale that the vulnerable people require,” he said.

At least 1,453 people died when a torrent of mud, rock and water struck northern Nepal and the China-Tibet border on August 26, triggered by a glacial collapse.

According to Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, 5,500 people were still missing and 13,795 had been rescued.

Researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group said in a report released last week that the disaster was not caused by a single extreme weather event, but rather a “compound crisis” shaped by long-term warming, glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and geological instability.

Shah said climate change was hurting people not responsible for the crisis but who “are paying a colossal price for it”.

He said Nepal contributed less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the heat-trapping gases behind climate change. About 99 percent of the country’s electricity comes from hydropower, and many workers were trapped in tunnels by the flooding.

“Our glaciers are retreating, our mountain slopes are becoming unstable, our rivers are becoming less predictable, and every major disaster threatens to erase years of development,” Shah said.

Shah urged the international community to help bear the cost of helping Nepal adapt to climate change.

He proposed to create a ‘Himalaya Climate Resilience Mechanism’ which would include Nepal and neighbours India and China, and would allow them to share satellite data and expertise, monitor glacial lakes and strengthen joint early warning systems.

Nepal has asked the UN’s loss and damage fund for $20m in aid, the maximum allowed, but a tiny fraction of what it needs. A preliminary assessment by the government has placed the cost of the disaster at $5bn.

The fund, established in 2022 in the aftermath of catastrophic floods in Pakistan, has yet to make even its first disbursement, and observers see Nepal as a key test of its credibility.

Earlier this week, the United States pledged an additional $31m in new flood recovery support.

In a new magazine interview Lacey revealed her hopes and fears for the BBC comptition which kicks off at the weekend

Lacey Turner has admitted she has jumped out of her comfort zone to take part in Strictly Come Dancing. The EastEnders star, who is best known for her long-running role as Stacey Slater on the BBC soap, has now been paired with Vito Coppola on the series.

Speaking about the decision to take part, she told Prima: “I’ve been asked to do Strictly Come Dancing before. I’ve seen co-stars like Jake Wood and Kellie Bright work at the same time as doing the show, and I don’t know how they did it.

“Now I’m not on EastEnders , it felt right. I’m nearly 40 and I want to start doing things I’m scared of. I want to go out of my comfort zone and push myself to see what I’m capable of. Maybe it’s a midlife crisis, but I want to show my children that they can do anything they put their mind to.”

As well as being well known in Albert Square, the Edgware-born actress, 38, has also appeared on TV shows including True Love and Call The Midwife, and starred as Molly Dawes in the military drama Our Girl. She was the first contestant to be announced as taking part in Strictly this year.

Asked what scares her about taking part, she added: “I’m nervous for people to see more of Lacey. I’m opening myself up to people criticising me, not just my character. I’m quite terrified of the whole thing, and while I tap-danced when I was younger, this is very different. I am a bit scared of letting people in, but you can’t live your life in fear.”

Lacey revealed at one point in order to juggle motherhood and being on EastEnders she “smuggled” her newborn daughter onto the set. She explained: “I don’t think I was allowed, but I wanted to get stuck back in, so she was partly raised by cast members, assistant directors and makeup artists. It was lovely to be able to go back to work and have her by my side, which is rare. The world is not set up for mothers to be able to do that.”

Thankfully ahead of Strictly there was slightly less pressure on her In terms of work and she has been making the most of family time away from the small screen in the run up to the intensive training she will now undergo. She married husband Matt Kay in 2017 and the pair have three children.

She said: “For the first time in my life, I’ve had a long-time off work, and it’s been lovely to be with my kids, potter around in my allotment and do things just for me. I genuinely love EastEnders and working, so I thought I would get bored during this break, but it’s been so lovely.

“Will I come back to EastEnders ? It will always have my heart and will be a big part of me. I love the show. I miss Stacey, so one day, I hope to go back – but when that is, I’m not sure. I just hope they don’t kill her off!”

* The full interview can be read now in the November issue of Prima, on sale today(Wednesday 23 September).

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Sudan’s collective memory has long carried stories of famine-induced tragedies. Now, as war pushes the country deeper into a catastrophic food crisis, historians and humanitarian activists fear that some of those horrors are being repeated.

The ongoing war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which erupted in April 2023, has plunged the country into one of its worst modern food crises, with conditions deteriorating sharply since 2024.

Sudan has endured severe famines before, often triggered or made worse by drought and other environmental shocks. However, the current hunger crisis, which has triggered famines in Sudan in 2024 and 2025, has been brought on by a man-made factor: war.

Past starvation

One of the earliest recorded major food crises in what is now Sudan occurred in 1684, during the Funj Sultanate. The crisis, which lasted several years, brought severe grain shortages across central Sudan. Historical accounts describe people driven to desperation, and in some cases forced to eat dog meat. The hunger triggered mass displacement, as well as a deadly smallpox outbreak.

Similar climate-driven crises were recorded in 1750 and again between 1835 and 1838 during a period of Ottoman-Egyptian rule, exacerbated by severe drought and low water levels in the River Nile.

The famine most deeply embedded in Sudanese popular memory occurred between 1888 and 1889, during the rule of Khalifa Abdullahi al-Taashi.

Drought, locust infestations and conflict combined to cause widespread hunger and death. Some historical estimates put the death toll at more than one million people, although precise figures from the period are difficult to establish. The crisis was reported to have been so severe that some families shut themselves inside their homes to die rather than going out to beg for food.

Sudan experienced more periods of food shortages during the 20th century. Droughts and poor harvests during the colonial period of the first half of the century forced the authorities at times to import grain from abroad.

Then, in 1984, during the rule of President Jaafar Nimeiri, a devastating drought hit western Sudan, including Darfur and Kordofan, where there were widespread crop and livestock losses, displacing hundreds of thousands of people from rural areas to the capital, Khartoum.

Man-made catastrophe

Unlike many of those historical crises, the current famine is distinctly man-made.

War has disrupted agricultural production and trade, forced farmers to leave their land, and made it difficult to move food and humanitarian aid across the country.

Abdullah al-Tijani, a social historian and humanitarian activist, noted the unprecedented scale of the current disaster.

“Most previous famines were often confined to specific regions, as happened in 1984, or areas in southern Sudan before its secession in [2011], while the capital and major cities continued to have the necessities of life and services,” al-Tijani told Al Jazeera.

This time, he said, hunger and the collapse of basic services have spread across the entire country.

“A comprehensive food crisis has struck the heart of major urban and agricultural centres in the states of Khartoum, Gezira, Sennar, Darfur, and Kordofan, causing millions of citizens to be displaced inside and outside the country,” al-Tijani added.

He pointed to what he described as the “systematic destruction of infrastructure, disruption of large agricultural projects, and targeting of markets, bakeries, and crops, along with disrupting the banking system and communication networks, which isolated entire regions”.

Al-Tijani also cited the “restrictions on humanitarian access and delays in granting transit permits for relief workers”. He accused the warring parties of using control over food supplies as a tool of war, while warning that international funding has fallen short of the size of the crisis.

Lost agricultural potential

The scale of the crisis is stark because of Sudan’s agricultural potential. The country has immense resources, including roughly 200 million acres (81 million hectares) of arable land, abundant water from the Nile, and extensive livestock resources, but Sudan’s potential as a global breadbasket remains unfulfilled.

Mohammed Abdul Rahman, an economic researcher, explained that the current food security crisis reflects a clear development gap, and a longstanding weakness in Sudan’s agricultural sector compounded by war.

“Wars and armed conflicts are among the most influential factors on food production,” Abdul Rahman said, “along with the displacement of farmers from their lands, the absence of political stability and agricultural policies, weak funding and government guarantees, and reliance on traditional farming methods.”

Madrid, Spain – Thirteen minutes into La Liga’s Madrid derby on Sunday, a banner was unfurled in the Metropolitano Stadium’s south stand stating: “Ceuta es Espana. Ni se arruga, ni se tapa.” (Ceuta is Spain. It is neither rolled up, nor covered.)

It was a reference to the controversy involving Real Madrid players Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Ibrahima Konate, who in a previous football match against Elche had rolled-up shirts carrying a solidarity message linked to Ceuta, the Spanish enclave at the centre of growing political tensions between Spain and Morocco over the influx of migrants and refugees.

A record 72,000 migrants crossed from Morocco to Ceuta over the course of two days in late July, overwhelming local resources and creating a humanitarian crisis. The Spanish NGO Caminando Fronteras documented 141 deaths across both sides of the border in the immediate aftermath.

Mbappe and Konate have strong ties to the African continent. Konate was born and raised in Paris by parents who migrated from Mali, while France captain Mbappe grew up in Bondy, outside Paris, to parents who came from Cameroon and Algeria.

Mbappe said his gesture did not reflect a lack of support for Ceuta.

“I also wanted to think about all the people who are suffering, because in the end I am human and I don’t want to prioritise the suffering of one group over another,” he said.

He also said he wanted to acknowledge migrants who had suffered or lost their lives during the crisis.

Real Madrid later said it respected each player’s freedom to participate in the initiative. A day earlier, Barcelona had chosen not to wear the shirts before their La Liga game against Levante.

La Liga president Javier Tebas, meanwhile, criticised the three Real Madrid players and said he did not regard the campaign as political. David Aganzo, president of Spanish footballers’ union AFE, said players instead needed to be properly informed about what they were being asked to wear and why.

While the debate over Spanish football’s support for Ceuta followed Real into their derby against fierce rivals Atletico Madrid on Sunday, it also united supporters from both sides for two minutes as they joined in chants of “Ceuta no se vende, Ceuta se defiende” (Ceuta is not for sale, Ceuta must be defended) before the usual hostility of the derby resumed.

Mbappe and Vinicius were also the target of whistles from both sets of fans when Real’s starting XI was announced prior to kickoff.

Jorge Garcia, a 32-year-old Atletico Madrid supporter, believed they deserved the jeering.

Speaking to Al Jazeera after the match, Garcia termed the players’ move “disrespectful” to both Ceuta and Spain.

The campaign was launched on September 11 by Asociacion Valenciana de Empresarios (AVE), a non-profit business association, which described the move as an expression of solidarity with Ceuta’s residents and businesses amid an influx of migrants and a message of “territorial and social cohesion in Spain”.

AVE is chaired by businessman Vicente Boluda, a former interim Real Madrid president whose maritime group also operates in Ceuta.

Spain coach Luis de la Fuente travelled to Ceuta with the World Cup trophy, declaring: “This is Spain, this is Ceuta.” Real Madrid president Florentino Perez later visited and said the trip had been organised weeks earlier and was not a response to the controversy involving his players.

Youssef Temsamani, a Spain-based Moroccan journalist, believes the players found themselves in a difficult position: wearing the shirt could be interpreted as taking a political position, but declining to do so could be portrayed as showing a lack of solidarity.

Temsamani said migrants should also form part of discussions about solidarity with Ceuta, and criticised descriptions of the crossings in parts of Spain’s political and media debate as an “invasion” or “occupation”.

Luhay Hamido, president of AD Ceuta football club, defended the right of individual players to make their own decisions and said he respected those who wore it and those who did not.

“We cannot force anyone to identify with a cause they do not understand,” he told Al Jazeera, suggesting footballers are sometimes simply told to put on a shirt in the tunnel without having received a full explanation.

The scale of the crisis that prompted the solidarity campaign remains difficult to quantify precisely. Spain’s Interior Ministry put the number of people who irregularly crossed into Ceuta on July 30 and 31 at 72,000, saying more than 70,000 initially returned to Morocco.

Seven weeks later, the government estimated that 9,000 to 10,000 migrants remained in Ceuta. RTVE reported on September 20 that around 8,300 people were being accommodated in different facilities while more than 4,000 remained on the streets, reflecting discrepancies between estimates compiled at different stages of the crisis. The new temporary centre at the port reached its capacity of 1,700 people within hours of opening.

Hamido said the crisis had also directly affected AD Ceuta, with several advanced signings collapsing because players and their families were worried by what they had seen on television. The club began paying for prospective signings to visit the city before making their decision.

At the same time, he described the support from Spanish football as “pure fuel for us”, giving Ceuta “strength, hope and energy”, and said AD Ceuta could act as an “amplifier” so the city was not forgotten.

Away from the stadiums and political arguments, football is also played in the neighbourhoods in Ceuta, where migrants had gathered in the largest numbers.

There, children could be seen playing barefoot in the street, marking out makeshift goals against walls and turning whatever space they could find into a football pitch. Some wore shirts bearing the names of Yamal, Hakimi or Mbappe – players whose own family histories stretch across borders.

For Hamido, ordinary people caught in the crisis should not be castigated.

“[These] people, in the end, are not to blame,” he told Al Jazeera.

The country has battled multiple wildfires amid record-breaking temperatures fueled by El Nino and intense drought conditions.

A massive wildfire has broken out in central Colombia, threatening the popular tourist town of Villa de Leyva, according to local officials.

The forest fire is near the Andean town in the Boyaca department, with flames engulfing the San Marcos hillside above the colonial architecture and cobblestone streets that attract more than a million visitors annually. 

The blaze has already consumed 40 hectares of native forest, sending massive plumes of smoke that are visible from the town’s central square, according to Colombian authorities.

On Saturday night, Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella posted on X that “Villa de Leyva is not alone”, pledging to mobilise all state resources to fight the fire and protect “this historical jewel” and “beautiful city that is the pride of Colombia”.

To combat the flames, the Boyaca department government said it is dispatching two aircraft. A military helicopter will also join the effort, along with firefighters from the capital, Bogota, Interior Minister Rodrigo Lara said.

The mayor of Bogota, Carlos Fernando Galan, will be sending a team of firefighters to join local crews from Tunja and Boyaca, reinforcing containment efforts and securing the urban centre, Lara said.

In the equatorial Andes, forest fires peak during the dry season, but this year they are fuelled by a severe El Nino weather pattern. Record high temperatures and lack of moisture have turned vast expanses of the Andean vegetation into tinderboxes. That has intensified a crisis that has already started 18 active wildfires across the country, according to the latest official data from Colombia’s National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD).

The impacts of El Nino, a natural weather pattern, are felt globally and do not affect the entire South American continent in the same way, inducing extreme droughts in some regions and torrential flooding in others. This year, it comes supercharged by the effects of climate change, which is worrying many scientists, governments and aid workers.

The warming of the adjacent Pacific has triggered catastrophic flash floods and landslides in countries such as Peru and Ecuador.

Unlike in the southern part of the continent, where countries including Argentina, Chile and Uruguay have been expecting unseasonably heavy rainfall, El Nino has the opposite effect in the northern part of the continent. A significant reduction in rainfall leads to severe drought conditions which can suppress cloud formation and displace normal rain patterns, driving average temperatures well above normal.

The soaring heat rapidly evaporates moisture from the ground and water basins, leaving countries such as Colombia with extended periods of drought and critically low precipitation.

“El Nino can bring devastating climate extremes on its own, but it’s unfolding today on a much warmer planet, increasing the likelihood that heat, drought, floods and fires will push communities and ecosystems beyond anything they have experienced before,” said Stephanie Roe, lead climate scientist with the World Wildlife Fund.

Tehran, Iran – Hossein, a 32-year-old marketing specialist based in Tehran, has been thinking of replacing his 13-year-old Iranian-made car with a newer model.

Even though he earns about four-and-a-half times the minimum wage after a recent pay rise – his salary is now close to 900 million rials (about $390 at the current exchange rate) – imported vehicles are not even remotely affordable for him.

Even finding a locally made car might be out of his budget, with an economic crisis gripping the country since the United States and Israel launched a surprise war on Iran on February 28 and later enacted a crippling siege and sanctions on the country.

“I’m losing hope of ever being able to buy a new domestic production car too, unless the country opens up and becomes a bit more normal again,” Hossein, who asked to keep his full name confidential for security reasons, told Al Jazeera.

His old manual Peugeot 206 model, an originally French-made car but now produced domestically after foreign counterparts left Iran due to sanctions, can fetch up to 10 billion rials ($4,350) if he sells it towards making a new purchase. However, his replacement options are limited.

Upgrading to a slightly improved Peugeot 207 with an automatic gearbox could cost him 28 billion rials ($12,170) now. This means that, after selling his car, he would need more than 20 months of his entire salary.

A domestic sedan Shahin model costs more than 31 billion rials ($13,480), and a crossover Reera is priced at more than 43 billion rials ($18,700).

With these options, he would need to save about 24 months and 37 months of his whole salary, respectively, and that is if prices remain stable and he does not spend a rial on anything else. But the reality of the fast-rising living costs and lagging incomes in Iran means he can barely put aside any money, let alone afford a new car.

Domestic car prices have mostly risen 40 to 80 percent since the start of the war, while some vehicles sell for more than 130 percent of their September 2025 costs.

The costs of maintaining the vehicles are also rising much faster than people’s salaries. Domestically produced tyres, motor oil, brake pads and clutch kits have at least doubled since last year, with some car parts having more than tripled in price.

Domestic vehicles have generally low safety standards, meaning that they contribute to staggering road accident deaths. At least 1,609 Iranians have been killed so far on intercity roads in the current month of Shahrivar of the solar Hijri calendar, which ends on September 22. More than 20,000 people lose their lives on the roads every year. In comparison, fewer people in the whole of the European Union, nearly five times Iran’s population, died on roads last year.

Iran’s fuel-guzzling cars also contribute to smoke-congested city streets, degrade vehicles faster and increase fuel costs, just as petrol prices have risen for users.

How did we get here?

Experts say, due to a combination of protected state-linked businesses, privileged access, economic isolation and a curtailing of imports, Iranian households have no choice but to pay exorbitant prices – compared with their salaries – to buy low-quality cars.

The damage from the war, including the extensive bombing of multiple steel giants by Israel and the US, has only added insult to injury. The naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports has prevented goods coming in from popular neighbouring markets like the United Arab Emirates.

Under such circumstances, domestic vehicle manufacturers have little incentive to improve.

End customers are also beset by government charges, currency and financing costs, margins levied by murky intermediaries – and in numerous documented cases, industry corruption.

“People are forced to buy expensive low-quality cars whose real prices should be a quarter of global prices, and this is a direct harm done to them,” Mohammad Rashidi, a member of the presiding board of Iran’s parliament, told local media on Saturday. “The traces of a mafia system are visible throughout the process.”

His claims echo those of other officials and state-linked media, who have openly described the industry as resembling an organised crime operation.

According to the latest figures released by state media, about 233,000 cars were manufactured or assembled in Iran in the first five months of 2026, compared with 366,000 the year before. Only about 25,000 vehicles were imported in that period.

Only a handful of state-linked companies or intermediaries are allowed to import vehicles, with duties plus value-added tax increasing final prices up to 200 percent.

The government and parliament have discussed lowering import tariffs this year, with no agreement announced so far.

The premiums are more visible for high-end cars, with a 2026 Toyota Land Cruiser VXR going for approximately 660 billion rials ($287,000) in Iran at the moment, while the same model is available for about $86,000 in the UAE. The same story applies to most other models, at different rates depending on the rarity of the vehicle and the availability of parts.

The price of a mid-range Chinese-designed SUV sold as Exeed VX in international markets is listed at about $32,000 in China, while it is priced at about $42,000 in the UAE. The same car, assembled from imported parts by a state-linked company in Iran under a different name, currently costs Iranian customers the equivalent of $53,000.

The bizarre situation was on full display during a three-day “international” car exhibition in Tehran last week that mostly featured Chinese-manufactured vehicles. These remain available in Iran despite the US sanctions, since Tehran exports almost all of its oil to China and barters this for goods, including cars.

Some domestic manufacturers and importers were absent, either because they had no products to offer or because they had angry customers who registered months ago to get vehicles they never received. Spare parts for some of the vehicles on display are currently either not available in the Iranian market or cost several times their price in international markets.

Even the cheapest vehicles offered at the exhibition were completely unaffordable to the average Iranian. It would take a worker on the minimum wage with standard allowances 50 years to buy an XPENG G9, a Chinese-made electric SUV priced at 120 billion rials ($52,150), on his or her salary, without spending a rial on food, housing or clothing.

Still, there were huge queues outside the exhibition centre each of the three days.

“It was sad because most people just came to take pictures with the cars they knew they could never afford,” a young man who attended the exhibition told Al Jazeera. “The doors of the cars were locked too.”

New Delhi, India – On the morning of August 26, the Himalayan landscape above Nepal’s Rasuwa district changed in minutes.

A mass of ice and rock broke loose high in the mountains and sent a violent surge of water, mud and debris down the Lhende Khola River. The torrent travelled through valleys, swept away settlements and infrastructure and eventually reached the Nepal-China border.

What followed was not simply a flood.

It was a chain reaction.

By mid-September, more than 1,400 people had been reported dead and at least 6,000 remained missing in Nepal and across the border in Tibet. Twelve hydropower plants were destroyed, while roads, bridges and homes were buried or washed away.

The scale of the destruction has left scientists and disaster managers confronting a difficult question: How do you warn communities about a disaster whose trigger may occur high above them, in terrain that is difficult to monitor and where there may be only minutes to react?

Basanta Raj Adhikari, director of the Centre for Disaster Studies at Tribhuvan University in Kathmandu, described the event to Al Jazeera as unprecedented in size, affected area and mechanism. His estimate suggested that the energy involved was greater than that released by the Hiroshima atomic bomb, a comparison intended to illustrate the scale of the physical forces involved rather than suggest that the event was equivalent to a nuclear explosion.

For scientists who study the Himalayas, the disaster demonstrated how quickly an event originating in a remote, high-altitude environment can become a regional catastrophe.

And Nepal is not alone.

The warning problem

A warming climate is altering glaciers, snow cover, permafrost and high-altitude lakes. At the same time, roads, hydropower projects, tourist facilities and settlements have pushed deeper into mountain valleys.

That combination is creating a new risk landscape in which one hazard can trigger another.

An avalanche can block a river. A blocked river can form a temporary lake. A sudden release can become a debris flow. That debris can destroy a road or bridge, block another river and create another flood downstream.

The August disaster in Nepal showed how quickly such a sequence can unfold. It also exposed a weakness in the way early-warning systems are often designed.

Many systems are built around a particular hazard: rainfall, river level or glacial lake outburst flood. But the Himalayas do not always respect those categories.

In July, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, or ICIMOD, warned that a below-normal monsoon should not be interpreted as a safer one.

“The biggest misunderstanding is that less seasonal rainfall means lower flood risk,” said Saswata Sanyal, a disaster risk reduction specialist at ICIMOD.

“A drier monsoon can still be a dangerous monsoon,” he added, warning that seasonal averages cannot capture the cloudbursts capable of producing catastrophic flooding in mountain valleys.

The Nepal disaster went a step further.

The immediate trigger was not simply heavy rainfall.

Scientists have been examining an ice-rock avalanche and other possible processes that temporarily obstructed the river system before releasing a destructive surge. ICIMOD has described the event as an ice avalanche rather than a conventional glacial lake outburst flood, while other scientists have examined the role of local seismic activity and other high-altitude processes.

That distinction matters.

A warning system waiting for rainfall or a rising river may not provide enough time when the real trigger happens several kilometres upstream and above the line of sight of the communities below.

Kashmir’s warning signs

Thousands of kilometres away, scientists studying Kashmir’s Himalayas are seeing another part of the same problem.

A study published in the Journal of Glaciology this year mapped 155 glacial lakes above 2,500 metres (8,200ft) across the Himalayas in Indian-administered Kashmir.

The researchers found that the area of ice-contact proglacial lakes – bodies of water that form directly against the margin of a melting glacier, trapped by moraine ridges, bedrock basins, or ice dams – had increased by 26 percent between 1992 and 2024.

Five lakes were classified as having very high susceptibility to glacial lake outburst floods.

An outburst from those lakes, the researchers found, could threaten several thousand buildings, 15 major bridges, roads and a hydropower project.

More significantly, the study warned that hazards could occur in chains, with an upstream lake outburst potentially triggering secondary events downstream.

For Irfan Rashid, a glaciologist and associate professor at the University of Kashmir who co-authored the study, the implications extend beyond individual lakes.

Rashid recently told Al Jazeera that without action, the melting, thinning, and destabilisation of glaciers, seasonal snow cover, and permafrost along the Hindu Kush-Himalayas system would increase, and water shortages could become a major problem across the Upper Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra basins by the end of the century.

That is why the Nepal disaster resonates in Kashmir.

The landscapes are different, the rivers are different and the individual hazards may differ. But the underlying problem is increasingly similar: Communities living downstream of a rapidly changing high-altitude environment may have little time to respond when something breaks loose above them.

The challenge is particularly acute in places where roads, bridges and hydropower projects occupy narrow valleys.

Once a mountain river begins carrying enormous quantities of rock, ice and mud, infrastructure designed for conventional floods can quickly become irrelevant.

Pakistan has already begun building a warning network

The same concern runs across the western Himalayas and Karakoram ranges.

The Gilgit-Baltistan region in Pakistan-administered Kashmir contains hundreds of glaciers and glacial lakes, while communities and infrastructure sit along valleys exposed to sudden floods and landslides.

Pakistan has responded by expanding early-warning infrastructure.

Under a United Nations-supported programme, early-warning systems, evacuation shelters, disaster-management centres and other protective measures have been established in vulnerable valleys.

But technology alone cannot solve the problem. A sensor can detect a change. Someone still has to receive the message. Someone has to understand what it means. And people downstream have to have a route to safety.

That last part is often the weakest link. A siren is useful only if the people hearing it know where to go. An automatic warning is useful only if it arrives before the flood. A satellite image is useful only if the information can be converted into a decision quickly enough to save lives.

This is why disaster scientists increasingly talk about anticipatory action rather than simply disaster response.

“The era of preparing for a single, predictable hazard is over,” Sanyal said earlier this year. “Anticipatory action and early warning must now be the foundation.”

The infrastructure trap

The Himalayas are also becoming more heavily engineered.

Hydropower is central to Nepal’s economy. Roads are being expanded. Border crossings are growing in importance. Tourism is pushing deeper into remote valleys.

The benefits are obvious. So are the risks.

The August disaster struck an area where hydropower infrastructure was concentrated along the river corridor. At least 900 workers were believed to have been inside tunnels and other facilities in the aftermath, making rescue operations extraordinarily difficult. Two workers were eventually pulled alive from a hydropower tunnel nine days after the disaster.

The question is no longer simply whether infrastructure can withstand a flood. It is whether planners have adequately considered what happens when a flood is carrying an enormous mass of rock and ice, when a river changes course, or when one mountain hazard triggers another.

For decades, engineering risk assessments have often relied on historical records. But history becomes a less reliable guide when the physical conditions producing disasters are changing.

A river that flooded once every several decades may no longer behave according to the same pattern. A glacier that appeared stable from satellite imagery may sit beneath an increasingly unstable slope. A lake that was considered remote may suddenly become a threat to a road, village or power plant hundreds of metres below.

The border problem

There is another complication that no satellite can solve on its own.

Borders.

The Himalayas are divided among countries with different political systems, security concerns and approaches to sharing information. But rivers do not stop at international boundaries. Neither do floods.

The August disaster reached the Nepal-China border and damaged the Gyirong crossing, an important trade and pilgrimage route. The disaster also raised questions about how quickly information about hazards in high mountain areas can move between countries.

This is where regional cooperation becomes more than a diplomatic slogan, experts say. A sensor positioned in one country can provide warning to people in another. A satellite image collected over one mountain range can reveal a developing hazard that threatens a valley downstream. A river gauge can provide critical information before floodwaters reach a settlement.

The technical capability already exists in many cases. The missing piece is often the architecture connecting it.

A 2026 assessment of Himalayan disaster risks has argued for stronger monitoring, early-warning systems and regional coordination because hazards are increasingly interconnected.

The idea is simple: Information about a mountain hazard should not stop at the same line where a political boundary begins.

From Nepal to Sikkim to Kashmir

The August disaster in Nepal isn’t a tragedy belonging to one country, point out experts.

The Kashmir Himalayas study has already identified lakes capable of producing destructive outburst floods and has warned of cascading processes.

Northeast India’s Sikkim provides another example.

After the 2023 South Lhonak glacial lake outburst flood killed dozens and damaged major infrastructure, India expanded monitoring and mitigation efforts.

Today, 40 high-risk glacial lakes have been identified in Sikkim, including 16 placed in the highest-risk category, with authorities working on drainage, flood-retention and other protective measures.

But the lesson from each disaster is broadly the same: Waiting for a disaster to prove the risk is the most expensive form of preparedness.

The Third Pole test

The Himalayas are sometimes called the Third Pole because they contain one of the world’s largest concentrations of snow and ice outside the Arctic and Antarctic.

Major Asian rivers depend on water originating in these mountains. Hundreds of millions of people live downstream.

That makes the changing Himalayas not only an environmental issue but a security, infrastructure and humanitarian one.

The August disaster demonstrated the most frightening version of that future. A mountain can collapse without warning. A river can become a weapon of debris. A hydropower tunnel can become a trap. A border crossing can disappear in minutes. And by the time people downstream understand what is happening, the water may already be there.

It’s a future that a region stretching from northeast India, spanning Tibet, Nepal, Kashmir and Pakistan, can no longer ignore. Yet disaster management remains largely divided by national boundaries. That contradiction is becoming harder to navigate.

The next glacial collapse could begin in Kashmir. It could begin in Pakistan’s high mountains. It could begin in Sikkim, Nepal or Tibet.

Wherever it starts, the same question will follow the mountain downstream: Who knew, how early did they know, and did the warning reach the people in time?

For a region entering an era of increasingly complex mountain hazards, that may be the real measure of whether the Third Pole is prepared.

TOMORROW night in Philadelphia, Ed Sheeran is expected to return to the stage for the first time since the biggest crisis of his career began.

Venues and promoters removed rapper Macklemore as the opening act on his US tour for voicing pro-Palestinian views on stage — prompting a legion of musicians, many of whom were British megastar Ed’s friends, to publicly turn against him over the past week.

This evening at Lincoln Financial Field, Ed will perform to 60,000 fans alone, with just his guitar and his trusted loop pedal, after Irish singer Aaron Rowe and Danish group Lukas Graham pulled out as support acts.

Irish folk group Beoga have performed with Ed on every night of the Loop World Tour — but they have also withdrawn, along with Billie ­Eilish’s brother Finneas, who was due to open six of Ed’s south ­American dates later this year.

“The world feels like a very lonely place for Ed right now,” an insider tells me.

“He couldn’t have done more to change the situation. He genuinely tried everything. This pile-on has been awful.”

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I’m told dad-of-two Ed, 35, is ­planning on pushing ahead with the concert this evening before taking a view on the remaining ten dates across the US before his shows in South America.

My insider explained: “He wants the tour to continue for fans.

“They will have spent a lot of money on travel and hotels and will want to see him perform.

“The plan is to see how it goes tonight and then Ed and his team can take a view on whether they will carry on or not.”

Last night local action groups Philly Palestine Coalition and Shut Down D&Z confirmed they would be demonstrating at the train station closest to the venue.

Police said they would be increasing patrols in the area and were dispatching extra officers to the area around Lincoln Financial Field before the concert starts at 8pm.

Jasmine Reilly, a spokesman for the Philadelphia Police Department, said last night: “Our officers are talking to Ed’s team to make sure all appropriate measures are taken.”

A second source told me: “A nightmare scenario is if unrest begins inside before or during the show. It’s a possibility because of the heightened emotions with everything that is going on right now.

“Naturally Ed and his team’s concerns are for the safety of the people inside and outside the venue.”

Tonight’s gig will take place 15 days after Macklemore lit the touchpaper under Bad Habits hitmaker Ed.

The rapper — real name Benjamin Haggerty — played his pro-Palestinian protest song Hind’s Hall in New Jersey before telling the crowd: “A big part of the reason why I wanted to do this tour in the first place is so I could stand up in ­stadiums like this and say two words that are very near and dear to my heart: Free Palestine.”

The next day he stood on stage again at the MetLife Stadium and declared: “To all of my Jewish brothers and sisters: criticism of Israel, criticism of apartheid, being against genocide in no way is a criticism of you.”

Two days later, the Israeli-American Council published a ­petition calling for Macklemore to be removed from Ed’s shows.

On September 8, Jewish singer Pink ramped up emotions when she shared a statement on Instagram with her 11.7million followers.

She blasted Macklemore for going on stage “in front of a stadium full of music-loving families, with violent images from a war on the screens, dedicated a song to the movement of his choice, and then took the mic to tell all of the Jews in the stadium that it wasn’t about them.”

Three days later Macklemore was removed from Ed’s tour. US promoters Messina Touring Group said that it had been notified by venues on Ed’s US tour that they “will not allow a concert to take place with Macklemore on the line-up.”

In a statement calling Ed a “brother”, the rapper said: “Nothing I’m writing here is out of spite or because I want to tear down his character.

“But as I told Ed multiple times on the phone, our friendship can’t change my responsibility to tell the truth about what happened.”

Macklemore explained that Ed had told him billionaire Robert Kraft, the owner of the New England Patriots American football team and their Gillette Stadium in Massachusetts, would not allow him to play the two dates there on September 25 and 26.

Macklemore added: “Ed was in a f***ed-up position.

“His typical apolitical stance was being challenged in a way it never had been before.

“He told me that the words ‘Free Palestine’ and the image of the Palestinian flag were hurtful to a lot of people he spoke with. I told him that if those words were more ­offensive than tens of thousands of Palestinian children being killed by Israel, then there was a fundamental disconnect between where those ­people stood and where I stood.

“But he couldn’t get past his public-facing, ‘I don’t take sides.’ ”

The next day Ed addressed the ­situation in a statement to his 47million Instagram followers and revealed the lengths he had gone to in a bid to get everyone back on board.

He said he had spoken to “activists on both sides” as well as the owners of stadiums to find unity and that he was “appalled” by the conflict.

Ed added: “I am not complicit. I have my personal views on this devastating conflict. Just because I choose not to speak publicly, it doesn’t mean I don’t have them, and it doesn’t mean I don’t care.

“Macklemore coming off the tour was the promoter’s decision, it was not mine.

“I would never let down the fans who had made plans, nor would I abandon the touring crew and the other support acts and musicians who rely on me for work.”

Explaining his decision to remain apolitical, he said: “There is a ­reason I do not use my professional platform for politics.

“My audience includes young people, often children, of all backgrounds.

“Those who come to my shows do not expect a political forum. I respect Macklemore’s strength of purpose to stand up and shout for what he believes in.

“However there is room for multiple approaches to the same end: peace.”

He concluded: “I have spent this week trying to build bridges, to find a solution, and unfortunately I was unable to do so.

“I know who I am, both as a person and as an artist, and those who know my heart know my values too.”

Despite his attempts to make amends, Ed was left flattened the following day as the artists on his tour started to pull out.

In a statement, Irish group Beoga said: “To play in venues that silence anyone advocating for Free Palestine is simply not an option for us.”

Pro-Israeli billionaire Kraft then came out fighting in Ed’s corner.

Shortly after Macklemore announced he was donating his $1million fee for the tour to humanitarian organisations providing aid to Palestinians, Kraft said Ed had been in touch before asking to match a donation he had made.

Kraft said: “I have dedicated much of my life to building bridges between all people.

“I believe deeply that all lives are worth protecting.

“Earlier today, before Macklemore challenged me to match his donation, Ed called me and asked me to commit $2million to match his donation to aid in the region to fight this humanitarian crisis.

“Ed now plans to reach out to other venue owners and our goal is to continue to work together to build bridges.”

Kraft also pointedly recalled Macklemore’s stunt in 2014, where he performed on stage in a costume which featured anti-Semitic tropes.

Macklemore apologised and said he did not mean to offend anyone but conceded the outfit could have looked like a “Jewish caricature”.

In the days prior to tonight’s show, high-profile stars have waded into the row, including British singer Paloma Faith, Hacks actress Hannah Einbinder and Formula 1 champ Lewis Hamilton.

The controversy also spilled over into politics, with US senator ­Bernie Sanders blasting Kraft.

The Democrat wrote: “In the United States of America, billionaire stadium owners should not be able to silence artists because they speak out on political issues.

“Today it is the genocide in Gaza. What’s next? If they can silence one artist, they can silence anyone.”

Since his statement, Ed has not spoken and is, insiders tell me, “staying focused” on the hours ahead of the concert.

A source said: “Ed has never faced anything like this before.

“It’s been devastating. He is trying to do the right thing by everyone. Sadly that isn’t always possible.

“As he said in his statement he has his own views on the conflict.

“Just because he has not been public in speaking about them, it doesn’t mean he doesn’t care or hasn’t actively been helping in whatever way he can.”

World Cup winners Spain choose Cueta to announce Nations League squad in solidarity with migration crisis in region.

Spain coach Luis de la Fuente announced his Nations League squad from Ceuta on Friday in a show of support for the Spanish city in northern Africa that has become the centre of a migration crisis.

For his first squad announcement since Spain won the World Cup in July, De la Fuente revealed his list in a video featuring him in Ceuta accompanied by residents of the Spanish exclave. More than 70,000 people stormed across the border in late July from Morocco, with more than 100 dying in the chaos. Most quickly returned, but a few thousand remain in the city of just over 80,000.

De la Fuente did not directly mention the border crossing or its impact, but did say: “This is Ceuta, this is Spain.” It echoed the rise in sentiment in Spain that Ceuta – a territory that until the mass crossing was mostly an afterthought for most mainland Spaniards – needs to be supported.

Spain opens the Nations League against England at Wembley Stadium on September 26 , when its players will wear two stars on their shirts for the first time since winning their second world title.

After visiting London, Spain will host Croatia on September 29 and the Czech Republic on October 3 , before visiting Croatia on October 6 .

De la Fuente kept his World Cup squad mostly intact.

Inter Milan goalkeeper Josep Martinez replaces Barcelona’s Joan Garcia, who is out with a minor knee issue. Real Madrid defender Dean Huijsen is in for Marcos Llorente, who retired from international football. Fermin Lopez replaces fellow Barcelona midfielder Gavi, while Espanyol striker Roberto Fernandez got his first call-up, replacing Borja Iglesias.

Ceuta is one of two Spanish territories on the north African coast along with Melilla. Ceuta has been in Spanish possession since 1580. Christians and Muslims, Spanish and Moroccan residents and day workers all live there in relative harmony behind a border fence that many migrants from across Africa attempt to cross or swim around for a better life in Europe.

A Real Madrid supporters’ group has demanded a public apology from their star striker Kylian Mbappe and two of his teammates after the trio declined to fully wear a T-shirt in support of the people of Ceuta.

Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Ibrahima Konate wore a tribute shirt along with the rest of the squad ahead of Madrid’s 3-2 win at Elche on Tuesday in La Liga, although theirs were partially rolled up to cover the message.

Spain’s Nations League squad:

• Goalkeepers: Unai Simon (Athletic Bilbao), David Raya (Arsenal), Josep Martínez (Inter Milan)
• Defenders: Aymeric Laporte (Athletic Bilbao), Pau Cubarsi (Barcelona), Eric Garcia (Barcelona), Marc Pubill (Atletico Madrid), Alejandro Grimaldo (Atletico Madrid), Marc Cucurella (Real Madrid), Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid), Pedro Porro (Tottenham).
• Midfielders: Rodri Hernandez (Barcelona), Pedri Gonzalez (Barcelona), Fermin Lopez (Barcelona), Martin Zubimendi (Arsenal), Mikel Merino (Arsenal), Fabian Ruiz (Paris Saint-Germain), Alex Baena (Atletico Madrid).
• Forwards: Lamine Yamal (Barcelona), Dani Olmo (Barcelona), Ferran Torres (Paris Saint-Germain), Yeremy Pino (Crystal Palace), Nico Williams (Athletic Bilbao), Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad), Victor Munoz (Liverpool), Roberto Fernandez (Espanyol).

Italy’s defence minister warns of severe economic fallout if Bab al-Mandeb becomes impassable, bypassing EU delays.

Italy will deploy warships to ensure safe passage for its commercial vessels through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said, adding that Rome would not wait for a joint decision from the European Union.

“We have the capabilities to protect the passage,” Crosetto said, warning that if the waterway became impassable, the economic consequences would be severe.

The Italian defence minister said that Rome “must not allow bureaucratic delays in decision-making to exacerbate an already complex situation”.

Bab al-Mandeb links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, forming one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors between Europe and Asia and a critical route for oil, gas and container traffic heading to and from the Suez Canal.

Roughly 12 to 15 percent of global trade has historically passed through the narrow waterway, which separates Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea on the African side and is only about 30km (19 miles) wide at its narrowest point.

The strait’s importance has grown sharply since Iran effectively seized control of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year amid its war with the United States and Israel, choking off the world’s most important oil chokepoint and pushing much of the Gulf’s crude exports towards alternative routes.

Saudi Arabia, in particular, has increasingly relied on pipelines and Red Sea shipping to bypass Hormuz altogether, making the Bab al-Mandeb strait one of the last major arteries still open to Gulf oil reaching global markets.

Control of the strait has been contested for years, as Yemen’s government, Houthi rebels and, at times, forces in the region have held stretches of its coastline at different points since the war in Yemen began in 2015.

The significance of the strait has been hit dramatically in the past few weeks, when the Iran-backed Houthi movement launched a rapid offensive that brought the entirety of Yemen’s western Red Sea coast under its control, including several strategically located islands.

The advance has given the Houthis effectively unrestricted access to the waterway, a development seen as a major setback for international shipping, given the group’s history of attacking vessels it associates with the US or its allies in the region.

The US and the European Union have already carried out military operations aimed at better protecting merchant ships from Houthi attacks in the area, though those efforts have struggled to fully secure the route as fighting in Yemen has escalated.