crisis

It’s the worst ski resort nightmare: hillsides of shaggy yellow grass streaked with slush under a leaden sky that’s coughing up sleet. Parts of Europe – places previously accustomed to crisp snow fields and pristine blue skies – are now facing this calamity, something meteorologists might describe as a British winter.

Not everywhere, of course. Only lower altitudes are seeing such disasters. Higher up, normal service continues. I’m in the Swiss resort of Laax, where most of the slopes are at about 2,000 metres, lofty enough to be snow-secure, for now. The halfpipe is busy with dudes in baggy trousers and headphones nonchalantly practising their double corks. On the traditional pistes there are four-year-olds who could probably ski before they could walk. And then – Switzerland has its wacky side – three young men in first-world-war greatcoats on antique wooden skis propel themselves with rough-hewn quarter-staves.

Is all this destined to disappear, perhaps in our children’s lifetimes? To put it in stark, white and black terms: are ski resorts in the same predicament as oil-dependent desert states, watching their one key source of wealth dwindle and disappear?

If so, Laax is not going down without a fight. This unusual Swiss resort, close to the Austrian border, is making a bold attempt to be carbon neutral by 2030, a goal that requires cutting out all oil use, making all energy generation sustainable, and reducing food waste to zero. Stung by climate crisis criticism levelled at the ski industry, this community is now far ahead of most. What I have come to see may turn out to be the future of winter sports.

Down in Laax, I meet Reto Gurtner, 71, CEO of the Flims Laax resort. His father built the first ski lifts back in 1962. “Although there had been summer visitors since the 19th century, Laax was a poor village back then,” says Gurtner.

In the 1970s, something significant changed. Gurtner went to study at UCLA and, under the California sun, discovered skateboarding. Even now the memory makes his eyes light up. “They were inventing new sports and I loved the style: no nationalism or militarism. Skateboards, mountain bikes, snowboards – if you did a good run, everyone applauded. It didn’t matter who you were. There was a freedom about it.”

He came home with a degree in economics, but more importantly perhaps, a snowboard and a mountain bike. “We went up on the glacier and built the first halfpipe with shovels.”

At first, there was a lot of resistance. Local ski outfitters refused to stock snowboards, while in summer, farmers were outraged at the sight of cyclists pelting down mountain tracks. “We made every cyclist wear a bib,” says Gurtner with a chuckle. “Then the farmers thought it was a race and were fine with that.”

Conversation with Gurtner is a wild ride. We cartwheel through Steve Jobs, the German poets and the Wu-Tang Clan, as he describes how his visionary approach evolved into something he calls “greenstyle”, an optimistic and well-designed future.

That vision is found in all the new buildings around the resort, nowhere more so than the ski lift in the neighbouring village of Flims, where I head with local guide Doris Rellstab. “The new gondola system does away with unoccupied ski gondolas going up and down the mountainside,” she says. A complex algorithm allows skiers to choose one of five destinations up the mountain, despatching individual gondolas, which balances energy efficiency with passenger demand. As we are lifted smoothly up over the fir trees, the quiet efficiency of this on-demand system becomes immediately apparent.

Rellstab tells me how things have changed in the half century since she began teaching winter sports. “Yesterday, I taught my first Arab group. They were a lot of fun.”

Our destination is Segnes, high above the treeline at 2,100 metres. Having left the gondola, we don snow shoes and head into a bowl-like snow-filled valley. A couple of miles ahead, the valley ends in a sheer rock face topped by a jagged range of peaks. “That’s the Tschingelhörner,” says Rellstab. “Can you see the line in the rock below the peaks? That was once a geological mystery.”

In 1848, the celebrated geologist Roderick Impey Murchison arrived here with a local expert, Arnold Escher von der Linth. Older rocks were overlaying younger, a puzzle for which there was no explanation. It took more than a century for scientists to solve the problem: the ancient African tectonic plate was riding up over the younger European one. The world was indeed upside down.

In summer, this area is covered in rare Alpine flowers and there’s a mountain hut to stay in. Next to us are the tracks of a snow hare. “Wildlife is doing well here,” says Rellstab. “The wolf and lynx have both returned.”

In fact, climate change appears to be assisting wolves in the Alps. The first Alpine pack was recorded in 1993, and by 2021 there were more than 250, with an annual growth rate of about 25%. Switzerland, once entirely wolf-free, now has about 40 packs. Rellstab shows me a website where sightings are monitored. There are conflicts with farmers and hunters, but the numbers keep growing, an indication that parts of the ecosystem are doing well out of retreating snowlines.

Perhaps more surprising is that lack of snow is not a big worry to the resort. As Gurtner points out: “Laax is not snow-dependent. A halfpipe or a snow freestyle playground doesn’t need a lot, and we make it with hydro power. And we’ve got mountain bikes and amazing hikes.”

Later that day, I am up on the mountain with my skis, wandering around on blue runs. Conditions are a bit icy and I’m playing safe, finding myself on a less frequented route that dips down into the valley. And then I come over a ridge and the snow on either side is gone – only the piste remains, a broad band of white curling down through green pasture dotted with lovely old barns. Cannon snow is more durable, surviving longer when the “real” stuff melts. Most Alpine ski stations are already reliant on it, but unlike many, Laax does not add any chemical or biological additives to the water in its cannons. With sustainable power sources and electric piste-grooming machinery now becoming available, cannon snow is not as environmentally destructive as it may appear.

At the foot of the hill, I reach the village of Falera, neighbour to Laax. There is one old chair lift, clanking and squeaking, and as I approach it comes to a halt. “Sorry,” says the attendant, “we are closed now.”

I wander into the village, all hand-hewn barns with neat log stacks. I can’t see any cars. If Laax is taking the technological solution, its neighbour appears to have chosen a less frenetic and more traditional route to net zero. After 20 minutes, a bus (electric, naturally) appears. As I ride back to Laax, I check the wildlife website that Rellstab recommended. And I get a shock. According to a CCTV report from a few hours earlier, a wolf had walked within a mile of me. Outside my hotel, I jump off the bus. Evening is falling. I wait for a line of silent cars to go by. With electric motors everywhere, the town is hushed. Climate change, I reflect, is nothing if not unpredictable. When the wolves howl, you will hear them.

The trip was provided by Flims Laax and rental equipment by Ecoski . Trains run from Zurich via Chur and the Rhine Gorge to Ilanz, where there’s a bus service to Laax. Inghams offers a seven-night trip to Laax from £1,618pp B&B, including flights

Authorities warn of ‘destructive winds’ and urge residents to shelter as the storm passes the island’s northeast.

Typhoon Champi has struck Taiwan, killing one person and injuring at least 350 others, as authorities warned of “destructive winds” and instructed people to stay indoors.

The storm swept past the island’s northeast on Friday, toppling trees, shutting shops and schools, cutting power to thousands of households, and forcing more than 4,300 people to evacuate from their homes.

Champi is heading towards China and Japan, forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights in the region.

“From tonight through tomorrow morning conditions will be very windy and stormy everywhere,” Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecaster Lin Ping-yu said in a briefing. “Please try to stay indoors.”

Champi was briefly a super typhoon with winds of nearly 300 kilometres per hour (186 miles per hour) but has since weakened. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported maximum winds of 185km/h (115mph).

Worse is still expected to come on Saturday. Champi could drop up to 900mm (35 inches) of rain between Thursday and Saturday, with the northeast hit hardest, the CWA said. More than 400mm fell in Yilan County on Friday.

CWA forecaster Lu Kuo-chen said the typhoon could slow near the island’s northeastern tip, prolonging its impact.

About 8,400 households in Japan’s Okinawa islands were without power on Friday afternoon, according to the Okinawa Electric Power Company. Champi is forecast to hover near Okinawa and then China’s eastern coast before turning northeast towards mainland Japan.

Champi is the latest storm in a Pacific season supercharged by El Nino.

The United Nations said on Wednesday that El Nino, a natural cycle that warms the tropical Pacific, is heading off the charts.

“The current El Nino event could be unprecedented in strength. Literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades,” said Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization.

It is expected to peak in December, with its impact lasting into 2027 and beyond.

Across Europe, an autumn of anger is taking hold.

In France, student protests over overcrowded classrooms and teacher shortages have grown into a broader public outcry.

In recent weeks, separate protests have also erupted in Belgium, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Albania.

The grievances differ, from unaffordable housing and low wages to rising fuel costs, education and political accountability.

But the frustration is increasingly shared: paying more, getting less, and struggling to afford a decent life, even with a job.

Governments face demands for relief while wrestling with high debt, rising borrowing costs and, in several countries, looming elections.

The decision has drawn sharp criticism from left-wing politicians and environmentalists.

The United Kingdom’s government has approved a natural gas project off the coast of Scotland, as the Labour government seeks to balance its climate goals with energy security concerns.

Energy Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh said on Wednesday that the Jackdaw gasfield would begin supplying energy to UK homes by the end of the month and would help to boost the country’s energy security.

The government said the North Sea project would increase UK gas production by about 6 percent at its peak.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the decision will “protect hundreds of jobs and help keep millions of homes warm”, but stressed it would not hinder the government’s targets on renewable energy.

The government also announced a New Energy Wealth Fund, which will invest in renewable and low-carbon energy projects as part of the green transition.

The fund has been established with an initial 2 billion pounds ($2.7bn), with plans to raise additional funds through tax revenues from North Sea oil and gas.

Higher energy prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war and the United States-Israel war on Iran have weighed on households and businesses, dragging on Britain’s economy.

Fahnbulleh told UK radio station LBC that the development of Jackdaw would not bring down household energy bills.

“I think it’s really important that we’re honest about this,” Fahnbulleh said.

“That was not a consideration in the decision because it won’t mean cheaper bills. This was about energy security.”

The announcement has drawn criticism from left-wing politicians and environmental groups.

Zack Polanski, the leader of the opposition Green Party, described the decision as “climate vandalism”.

“Surreal to hear [the] energy secretary try and say this is a ‘pragmatic decision’,” Polanski wrote in a post on X.

“It will do nothing to lower bills. It will do lots for the profits of the oil and gas companies. And will continue us further down the path of floods and wildfires.”

Environmental group Greenpeace said the decision showed “the toxic grip fossil fuel lobbyists still hold over our energy policy”.

“True pragmatism means severing our reliance on expensive oil and gas that leaves British households broke, supercharges extreme weather, and leaves our energy security at the mercy of petrostates,” said Ami McCarthy, head of politics at Greenpeace UK.

New Delhi, India — United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has arrived in India for a two-day visit, during which he is set to tour the Jamnagar refinery complex in Gujarat, owned by billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, a major player in global oil markets.

Reliance’s crude refinery in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state is the world’s largest single-site refinery. In many ways, Reliance Industries’ businesses sit at the crossroads of the ongoing global energy crisis.

The conglomerate is central to Washington’s efforts to punish Russian energy buyers, while also trying to contain oil prices amid the war on Iran, on top of rising diesel costs in the US, where a crucial midterm election looms. Reliance has also only recently committed to a major investment in the US, which President Donald Trump’s administration has cited as an example of its successes in luring global capital.

Rubio is skipping the capital, New Delhi, at a time when the US-India bilateral relationship has been rocky, strained by a string of friction points — and an elusive trade deal.

So why is the top US diplomat visiting the world’s largest single-site oil refinery?

Where is Rubio visiting?

After meetings in Mumbai, India’s financial hub in the western state of Maharashtra, Rubio will fly to Jamnagar in neighbouring Gujarat, near the Gulf of Kutch. Jamnagar opens into the Arabian Sea and is home to Reliance Industries’ refining complex, a major hub for crude processing and fuel exports, which processes 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd).

Rubio had visited India earlier this year too, but this trip “is a little more business-focused”, the US ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, told reporters last week. A readout from Rubio’s office noted that he would “meet with business leaders to promote opportunities for commercial investment and economic cooperation”.

“[At Jamnagar] he will meet some of the folks at Reliance,” Gor said.

What’s in Jamnagar?

The world’s largest single-site oil-refining complex has a combined crude-processing capacity of 1.4 million bpd. That is nearly 1.5 percent of global refining capacity, according to the company.

The complex comprises two refineries: the original facility, commissioned in 1999 with a capacity of 660,000bpd, and a second, export-oriented refinery commissioned in 2008, adding 580,000bpd, which operates in a special economic zone.

Jamnagar imports crude from international suppliers and exports refined products to global markets. The refinery can process heavy, sulphur-rich crude that many facilities cannot handle efficiently, converting oil into higher-value products.

Reliance said last month that the complex has processed more than 216 crude grades, claiming to be “perhaps the only refinery to achieve this feat”.

The Jamnagar refinery’s capacity is also driving a sharp revival in imports of Venezuelan crude — taken over by the US earlier this year after abducting then-President Nicolas Maduro — as Washington seeks to reshape global oil trade.

Reliance is expected to account for roughly 350,000bpd to 370,000bpd of the October intake, according to estimates from analytics firm Kpler. “We will talk with Reliance about refining more Venezuelan crude,” Rubio told reporters in brief remarks on Tuesday.

Why is the refinery significant for global energy supplies?

Reliance is a central player in keeping global oil markets stable, as one of the world’s biggest suppliers of refined petroleum products. In September, for instance, six of the seven large cargo ships that docked at European Union ports carrying oil products were bearing Reliance goods.

Reliance’s biggest export is diesel, which Trump has been particularly worried about, with prices reaching historic highs in the US ahead of midterm elections early next month.

Though the data on exports by category is not public, an analysis by the Reuters news agency from trade sources noted that Reliance Industries exported 21.66 million tonnes of refined petroleum products in the first half of 2025 from Jamnagar. Diesel accounted for the largest share at 9.81 million tonnes, followed by petrol at 6.14 million tonnes and jet fuel at 2.06 million tonnes.

Europe accounted for the biggest share of the company’s exports, making up 28 percent of Reliance’s refined products during the period. Buyers include BP, ExxonMobil, Glencore, Vitol and Trafigura.

The Jamnagar refinery also shipped about $143m worth of oil products to the US last month, according to data cited by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a think tank in Finland.

CREA noted in its report that the EU’s ban on importing petroleum products made from Russian crude from January 2026 does not adequately prevent products from refineries in third countries from entering Europe when those refineries also process Russian crude. The Jamnagar refinery is a prime example of that loophole.

Rubio’s visit to the refinery also comes as Trump faces his worst approval ratings amid inflation and rising fuel prices ahead of the midterm election in November. Just about 31 percent of Americans are happy with Trump’s performance – the lowest-ever number in his two terms, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey.

The Trump administration has also reportedly been pushing Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop strikes on Russian energy facilities, which have rattled the global fuel markets.

Why the refinery is important for the Russia-Ukraine war

Reliance is also a critical actor in US efforts to influence how much oil Russia sells.

Since the start of Russia’s full-fledged war on Ukraine in February 2022, India has emerged as the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after China. And Reliance is driving that surge in imports. While only 3 percent of its oil was sourced from Russia before 2022, that share rose to 50 percent by 2025.

So when Trump imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods in August 2025 to punish New Delhi for the purchase of Russian oil, Reliance was directly affected. It cut back on Russian crude imports significantly in subsequent months, but it still made up a third of the oil processed by Jamnagar’s refinery during the July-September 2026 quarter.

That was under threat when the Trump administration appeared poised to impose a 100 percent tariff on Indian goods because of continued Russian oil imports, under a new law passed last month.

But Trump has since suspended those proposed tariffs, easing concerns for India and Reliance.

Rubio has said India has been diversifying its import mix away from Russian crude, even as it still buys millions of barrels of Russian oil every day. “You’ve got countries like India, for example, that have voluntarily diversified their energy portfolio, but are still getting a substantial amount of energy from Russia because it’s hard to pivot from one day to the next,” Rubio said on Sunday.

“But they’re also an important ally and partner of the United States.”

Is Reliance also investing in the US?

Yes, India’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani, the chairman and managing director of Reliance Industries, is investing in the US, primarily through energy-related projects.

It is backing America First Refining’s planned oil refinery at the Port of Brownsville in Texas, also the first major US refinery in about 50 years, announced by Trump in March.

The refinery is expected to cost $3bn to $4bn and process about 60 million barrels of US crude annually. Reliance has signed a 20-year agreement to buy a large share of the facility’s output, with operations expected to start around 2029.

In November 2024, Reliance’s US subsidiary also acquired a 21 percent stake in helium explorer Wavetech Helium for $12m as part of its low-carbon energy strategy.

Last month, Trump announced that India’s Essar Group — an oil major with knee-deep ties to Russia — is planning an $18bn integrated steel investment in the US through its subsidiary, Mesabi Metallics.

Didn’t Trump’s ally just lock horns with Ambani?

Despite Reliance’s investments in the US and Rubio’s upcoming visit to the Jamnagar facility, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man who is also a key Trump ally, recently hit out at Ambani.

His Starlink space telecommunications firm has struggled for years to secure a licence to operate in India.

In ⁠a series of X posts recently, Musk accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of stalling Starlink’s entry to ⁠favour market leader Ambani’s telecom firm, Jio. Musk taunted Ambani directly, addressing ‌him as “Prime ‌Minister Ambani” and asking whether he would “consider allowing Starlink to compete”. Starlink, Musk wrote, was being blocked by “oligarchs” protecting their “monopolistic chokehold” on Indians.

In a statement issued on X, Reliance said it has “never feared competition” and has “grown in an India that welcomes investment and innovation, homegrown or international”.

Doha, Qatar — Qatar’s deputy prime minister has warned that global energy shockwaves from the US-Israel war on Iran have yet to reach their peak, raising concerns about further disruption to supplies, international trade and economic growth.

Speaking at the Global Security Forum in Doha on Monday, Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who also serves as Minister of State for Defence Affairs, identified several threats facing Qatar and the wider Gulf, including risks to sovereignty and disruptions to energy supplies.

“We haven’t reached the peak with respect to energy,” he said, warning of further repercussions “in the coming days and months”.

His remarks come amid continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz – a vital waterway for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments – following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the region.

Iranian strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial complex in March damaged facilities, with repairs expected to take several years.

“We were surprised,” Al Thani said when asked about the attack, adding that there had since been “a lot of discussion with Iran”.

He said Qatar had drawn lessons from the strikes, “to make sure that all of our assets will be protected from any unexpected attack”.

Al Thani also warned against imposing tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Transit fees should not be applied,” he said, adding that uncertainty over the waterway would ultimately affect consumers worldwide.

‘We never stop our communication’

Despite the attacks, Al Thani said Qatar continued to maintain contact with Tehran.

“We never stop our communication,” he said, adding that the two countries remained in touch at different levels despite their disagreements.

He described Qatar’s relationship with Iran before the attacks as one of trust, pointing to their shared offshore gasfield and longstanding economic interests.

Al Thani expressed hope that mediation efforts involving Qatar, Pakistan and Oman would help produce an agreement between the United States, Iran and other parties, including Israel.

He said a sustainable settlement would require broader regional dialogue involving Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Pakistan and Turkiye, in consultation with international allies.

“We need to build this on trust,” he added.

Al Thani also suggested developing economic ties with Iran to prevent future conflicts, citing cooperation between France and Germany following decades of hostilities.

“Iran is our neighbour. We need to find ways to live with them,” he said.

US defence ties

Al Thani also highlighted Qatar’s longstanding defence partnership with Washington, saying that “more than 90 percent” of attacks had been prevented through shared expertise and military capabilities developed over the past three to four decades.

He said Qatar was continuing to develop Al Udeid airbase, which hosts US forces and military personnel from other partner countries.

The base was itself targeted by Iran during the conflict, with Qatar reporting that it had shot down two Iranian warplanes during an attack in early March.

Al Thani also announced plans for a new regional defence partnership, saying Qatar was prioritising several aspects including air defence, counter-drone measures and cybersecurity.

“I’m happy to announce today also that soon we’re going to announce a new partnership,” he said, without naming the regional partners involved.

The deputy prime minister stressed that Qatar’s mediation efforts did not diminish its commitment to defending its territory.

“Mediation doesn’t mean that we should not be ready for any defensive action from our side,” he said.

Protests are sweeping France as anger over conditions in schools meets frustration with high living costs and a government accused of doing little to address problems facing people.

About 550,000 people demonstrated nationwide on Saturday, according to the Interior Ministry. Most marched peacefully, while a small minority attacked buildings, looted shops and clashed with police, who fired tear gas and charged protesters.

Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said 1,200 people were arrested and 150 police officers were injured. Behind the confrontations lies a political crisis, fuelled by anger at deteriorating services and overstretched household budgets, and compounded by a sense that France’s political institutions offer little hope of change.

Here is how school blockades became a nationwide movement – and what that means for President Emmanuel Macron.

How have the protests spread, what are protesters demanding?

The movement began last month in high schools in Paris’ working-class northern suburbs, where students protested against teacher shortages and poor facilities. School blockades and demonstrations later spread to cities including Bordeaux, Rennes, Nantes, Lyon, Lille and Marseille.

Saturday brought together students and trade unions, alongside supporters of the “yellow vest” movement that emerged in 2018 to challenge rising living costs and economic inequality.

Emile Chabal, a professor of contemporary history at the University of Edinburgh, told Al Jazeera the demonstrations were “the logical outcome of a series of protests” stretching back to the yellow vests.

That movement was driven by financial pressures and resentment at “the French presidential system”, he told Al Jazeera, alluding to a structure which often leads to the election of a centrist candidate, such as President Emmanuel Macron.

Saturday combined those longstanding grievances with students’ anger at deteriorating state schools. The yellow vests had demanded better public services.

Bringing students’ grievances together with wider social demands, therefore, represented “the worst possible outcome for the French government”, Chabal said.

Students’ immediate demands concern conditions in France’s lycees (public high schools), which generally educate pupils aged 15 to 18. They want smaller classes, enough teachers, better buildings and less exhausting timetables. Their complaints also reflect broader concerns about whether the state can provide the education and opportunities young people need.

But for workers, including school staff, the dispute also concerns wages and the resources available to deliver public services.

The school protests coincided with a nationwide public sector strike against the government’s budget plans. Bringing all these concerns together under one umbrella represented “the worst possible outcome for the French government”, Chabal said.

It comes as the proposed 2027 budget includes a 54 billion euro ($60.8bn) package of cost-cutting and tax measures, which the government says is necessary to reduce France’s deficit. The proposals include freezing the pay scale used to calculate civil servants’ basic salaries, which unions say would be the fourth consecutive annual freeze.

Donatella della Porta, a sociologist and political scientist, said students were inspiring wider mobilisation around inequality, cuts to public investment and democratic rights, with demands for social welfare spending rather than militarisation.

“They do not want to fight wars; they want a different future,” she told Al Jazeera.

She also linked the movement to young people’s mobilisation over Gaza, with Palestinian flags appearing at demonstrations across several European countries.

How has the government responded?

The government has focused its immediate response on public order, with President Macron saying those responsible for violence would be “prosecuted and punished”.

His comments came as a fire largely destroyed the historic town hall in the city of Limoges, while public buildings and shops were attacked elsewhere.

But those involved in violence represent only a small minority of the much larger mobilisation. Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the left-wing France Unbowed party, has accused the government of repressing school students and allowing the confrontation to intensify.

His argument reflects a wider political dispute about whether the government treats the protests chiefly as a security problem or addresses the grievances that have brought different groups together.

Experts say France’s problems extend beyond disagreement over individual budget measures and reflect deeper discontent. Emile Chabal, from the University of Edinburgh, said political paralysis since the 2024 parliamentary elections, which left no bloc with an outright majority, had created “an environment in which no political party or movement is able to channel social discontent”.

That fragmentation makes it difficult to build a durable agreement on spending, taxation or public services. It also leaves protesters questioning whether changing governments produces meaningful changes in policy.

The protests are also “a tough blow for Macron”, Chabal said, whose promises of youthful energy and a reformed, dynamic France have been undermined by “his inability to articulate his political project and his deeply unempathetic persona”.

Chabal added that the unrest included violence sometimes seen on the fringes of French demonstrations, with direct-action tactics associated with the yellow vests. Targets included shops and, more unusually, public buildings. He described the destruction of Limoges’ town hall as particularly significant because of its place in France’s civic history.

Other researchers emphasise the role of policing. Guya Accornero, a specialist in social movements at Lisbon’s University Institute, said previous confrontations had created lasting tensions between protesters and police.

During the current protests, a 15-year-old lost a hand to a police stun grenade, while a 14-year-old suffered a shattered jaw after being struck by a tear gas canister fired at close range, according to Human Rights Watch. The organisation condemned excessive force against children, saying the demonstrations had been overwhelmingly peaceful.

“Young people have been violently repressed also when using non-disruptive tactics,” she told Al Jazeera.

Who could benefit politically?

There is no clear answer from the experts who spoke to Al Jazeera. Paul Smith, an associate professor in French history and politics at the University of Nottingham, believes far-right leader Marine Le Pen stands to gain.

“I see only one beneficiary and that’s Le Pen,” he told Al Jazeera, suggesting the unrest could also damage Melenchon’s presidential prospects.

Chabal cautioned against assuming a far-right gain, but he said fear of disorder had historically benefited conservative or centrist parties in France, including after the 1968 protests.

Le Pen has not entirely dismissed the protesters’ grievances, describing them on X on Saturday as “legitimate social demands”, while claiming they had been “held hostage by the far left”.

The far-right may seek to reap the rewards of public discontent, but experts say it is more likely to channel that anger towards immigration and the scapegoating of migrants, rather than blaming the structures of neoliberalism and capitalism for the protesters’ woes, as Melenchon has suggested.

With a presidential election due in April 2027, candidates face competing pressures, demonstrating that they can restore order while convincing voters they will address the conditions behind the mobilisation.

The challenge, Chabal said, is how to create change in “an environment in which no political party or movement is able to channel social discontent”.

The fast-spreading Norte Fire in Orange County is fuelled by intense warm winds and unseasonably high temperatures.

A fast-spreading wildfire in Orange County, in Southern California, has engulfed several coastal properties and prompted widespread evacuation orders.

The Orange County Fire Authority said on Friday that the Norte Fire had scorched about 188 hectares (465 acres), with the state’s Cal Fire agency putting it at about 231 hectares (570 acres) by the evening, and that at least six homes had been damaged or destroyed in the San Juan Capistrano area.

The fire authority said firefighters were “aggressively attacking the fire from the ground and air” and issued pleas for people to stay clear of the area.

Unseasonably high temperatures and low humidity are fuelling the rapid growth of the fire, the AFP news agency reported.

The Norte Fire started in the coastal city of San Clemente on Friday and moved to the city of San Juan Capistrano, with some 6,000 homes and 16,000 residents under evacuation orders by the evening. An evacuation shelter has opened in each city while helicopters attempt to douse the flames.

Intense warm winds

The Norte Fire is one of several in the region driven by Santa Ana winds, intense warm gusts that blow from the southwest US interior towards the California coast.

The Santa Ana winds typically arrive in the autumn, right when Southern California’s vegetation is at its driest after a long, rainless summer, according to The Weather Channel.

Forecasters said winds blew at between 55km/h and 90km/h (35mph and 55mph) within coastal areas.

The strongest winds were expected through Friday, but the high heat and low humidity conditions that contribute to the growth of the fire are expected to last through Saturday night.

Tens of thousands of people in Los Angeles County were left without power as authorities attempted to lessen the possibility of electrical sparks that the heavy wind gusts could carry.

Other ongoing fires

California firefighters were also busy battling the Bryson Fire, which broke out on the outskirts of the Malibu beach community in Los Angeles County on Thursday. As of Friday, the fire had burned about 59 hectares (147 acres) and was 17 percent contained, according to Cal Fire.

The Henderson Fire was 20 percent contained and had burned 842 hectares (2,080 acres) in San Diego County by Friday, Cal Fire said. The blaze impacted Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton and prompted freeway closures.

Without a quick deal to move fertiliser through the strait, agricultural productivity would ‘significantly drop’.

A senior United Nations official has warned that parts of Asia and Africa could face a food security crisis unless Iran and the United States quickly agree on a UN-backed plan to move fertiliser through the embattled Strait of Hormuz.

UN ⁠Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva said on Wednesday that it was “absolutely critical” that the two countries agree to the proposal within weeks as planting season approaches. It calls for a UN-staffed coordination centre in Oman to help register vessels and oversee their safe passage in the waterway, through which a large portion of key global fertiliser inputs traditionally flow.

“If we miss that planting season, the productivity of agriculture would significantly drop and the impact on prices will significantly increase,” Moreira da Silva told Reuters on the sidelines of International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

Farmers operate strict crop calendars, and even slight delays could severely affect yield.

‘Negligible’ fertiliser shipments

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, with Iran targeting vessels in the strait and the US and Iran exchanging fire in and around the waterway.

The disruption has hit global supplies of urea, the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser, as well as seaborne sulphur, a key input. Before the war, roughly a third of global urea shipments and nearly half of seaborne sulphur passed through the strait.

Although some ships have been able to sail through amid the crisis, fertiliser products have made up a “very negligible” share of moving cargo, according to the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute.

Moreira da Silva said the UN-backed fertiliser mechanism, drawn up in March, could be activated within seven to 10 days if both Iran and the US agree.

Under the plan, UN monitors would work alongside local authorities at Gulf ports to verify cargo loading. Ships would be tracked during transit, and additional inspections could ⁠be carried out if countries raised concerns about a vessel or its cargo, said Moreira da Silva. He did not say why the US and Iran have not yet agreed.

The passage of only five vessels per day through the Strait of Hormuz could keep fertiliser supplies flowing to countries in critical need, he added.

‘Let us do our job’

The UN mechanism could work alongside negotiations for a “comprehensive deal” to restore freedom of navigation in the strait, Moreira da Silva said.

Iran and the US have exchanged proposals through intermediaries since a June interim ceasefire collapsed. Efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled over Tehran’s conditions and Washington’s insistence on addressing Iran’s nuclear programme from the outset.

“What we are telling them is, while you continue your discussions towards a comprehensive deal, let us work, let us do our job,” said Moreira da Silva.

His plea comes amid growing concern that fertiliser shortages could hit global food supplies.

In May, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warned that fertiliser scarcity could tighten food supplies from late 2026 into 2027, and would likely hit countries facing climate or other crises much harder.

In South Asia, where most rely on imported fertiliser, farmers are already struggling because of soaring costs and fertiliser scarcity. On Wednesday, farmers in Spain took to the streets to protest rising production costs amid high oil and fertiliser prices.

Move comes as haze from Indonesian fires makes Singapore and Kuala Lumpur the world’s most polluted cities.

Firefly, a Malaysian low-cost airline, has extended the suspension of its flights between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore through Wednesday as smoke from fires in Indonesia continued to blanket the region.

The announcement came as IQAir, an air quality monitor, ranked Singapore and the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur as the world’s two most polluted cities on Tuesday.

Firefly said in a statement that flights between the Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport (SZB) near Kuala Lumpur and the Seletar Airport in Singapore (XSP) have been cancelled up to Wednesday due to “weather and haze conditions”.

It called the action a “proactive safety measure”.

The fires, mostly on the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Borneo, are the country’s most intense in 11 years. They have been spurred by El Nino, a weather pattern expected to be among the strongest in four decades.

IQAir, a Swiss air quality monitoring company, said Air Quality Index in Singapore stood at 199 on Tuesday and 183 in Kuala Lumpur. Readings above 150 are generally considered unhealthy, and those above 300 are classified as hazardous.

Firefly, a subsidiary of Malaysia Aviation Group, which includes Malaysia Airlines, first announced the flight cancellations on October 10, citing “low visibility” due to the haze conditions.

Firefly said that affected passengers were being rebooked on Malaysia Airlines flights between Kuala Lumpur International Airport and Singapore’s Changi Airport, subject to seat availability.

The Singapore government has reintroduced subsidised care for haze-related illnesses, as it last did in 2015, when smoke from Indonesian fires hung over the region for weeks.

In Malaysia, schools reopened in most states on Tuesday as air quality improved slightly, but they remain closed in three states, one federal territory and several districts.

Malaysia’s foreign minister, Mohamad Hasan, said on Monday that he would press for stronger regional mechanisms when foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet next month.

“We already have an ASEAN mechanism for natural disasters, but haze is not included or classified as a natural disaster,” he told reporters in Sepang, according to Bernama, Malaysia’s state news agency.

The Philippines, which chairs the bloc this year, confirmed that the issue would be on the agenda.

“It’s in the agenda,” Dominic Xavier Imperial, a spokesman for the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs, said of the November meeting, which will precede the 49th ASEAN summit in Manila.

Mohamad, the Malaysian minister, said Indonesia had deployed about 60,000 personnel to fight the fires, but thick smoke had grounded 34 aircraft, including planes and helicopters.

Remote terrain and limited water supplies have also hindered the effort, he said, and cloud seeding is not possible without suitable rain clouds. He acknowledged Indonesia’s efforts but urged more effective action, citing the toll on Malaysian communities.

Authorities urge villagers to move to safer places after a river bursts its banks in the central part of the country.

Flash floods have hit central Nepal, sweeping away houses and leaving at least five people missing, according to officials, weeks after devastating flooding in the country that killed hundreds.

A landslide in Chumnubri village in Gorkha district, about 100km (62 miles) west of Kathmandu, blocked the Budhi Gandaki River on Saturday, leading to downstream flooding, authorities said.

Two women and three men were unaccounted for, and there are no reports of casualties, said the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).

According to the agency, at least 82 people, including nine foreigners, have been rescued from the affected areas.

The flood swept away about a dozen houses and two suspension bridges and damaged a hydroelectric project camp, carrying some of the construction equipment away, authorities said.

A muddy torrent washed away a highway bridge connecting Gorkha with the neighbouring Dhading district, said NDRRMA Chief Executive Dharam Raj Uprety.

Evacuation order

The Budhi Gandaki is a tributary of the Trishuli River, downstream from another tributary where a glacier collapse caused a catastrophic flood in August that killed 1,457 people, with thousands still missing.

“We have asked villagers living along the riverbanks downstream to evacuate and remain safe,” said Dharmendra Kumar Mishra, Gorkha district’s most senior bureaucrat.

National disaster authorities alerted people living along the river in the Gorkha, Tanahun, Chitwan, East Nawalparasi and West Nawalparasi districts about the flood.

“Please help ensure that people in at-risk areas are moved to safe locations in time and assist search and rescue operations as needed,” the NDRRMA said in a social media post.

Officials said army and police rescue personnel had reached the area and were also monitoring the situation from a helicopter.

“The flood looked similar… It was very scary, and it still feels like a nightmare for us,” said local official Laxmi Gurung of Chumnubri rural municipality.

“Our house is gone, we have no electricity… but there have been no casualties.”

Heavy rainfall in late September also triggered floods and landslides, killing at least 21 people, according to the disaster agency.

Rising frustration about housing shortages and surging rents in Spain has led to mass protests.

The demonstrations started last month after the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal, who died at age 87 this week.

The Socialist-led government tried to introduce measures to protect tenants and freeze rents, but Parliament rejected them. The conservative opposition says the solution is to ease regulations and build more homes.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has since announced early elections. Analysts say he wants to galvanise support, as he faces pressure on immigration and corruption investigations into his party.

Two recent polls indicate the right-wing People’s Party and far-right Vox are on track for a combined majority.

Can demonstrations against the housing crisis reverse Sanchez’s political fortunes?

Presenter: Sami Zeidan

Guests:

Hana Jalloul – Secretary of international politics and cooperation for the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party and a member of the European Parliament

Daniel Lacalle – Chief economist at Tressis and professor at the IE Business School

Pablo Calderon Martinez – Associate professor in politics and international relations at Northeastern University

For more than a decade, Yemen has been facing one of the most severe humanitarian crises in the world.

The latest round of fighting between the government and the Houthis is worsening the suffering of millions of people.

The United Nations migration agency says it is alarmed by the speed of the displacement.

So, how difficult is it for aid agencies to operate in Yemen?

And how much further can the situation deteriorate?

Presenter: Dareen Abughaida

Guests:

Abdusattor Esoev – Chief of Mission for the International Organization for Migration in Yemen

Hisham Al-Omeisy – Senior Yemen Advisor at the European Institute of Peace

Ammar Al-Asaadi – Programme Manager at ZOA, an international relief and recovery organisation

However, Jorge Galindo, director at the Esade centre for economic policy, says that available data makes it difficult to know exactly how many Spanish properties are owned by so-called “vulture funds” and being used for speculation.

He points to Bank of Spain figures from 2024 showing that only 8% of properties for rent are owned by companies.

Galindo says he concludes from the data available that there is not a notable accumulation of property to rent among a small number of owners in Spain.

“When it comes to explaining the rise in rentals, that is not the big cause,” he says. “What explains it is the shortage of supply compared to demand over recent years.”

The Bank of Spain appears to agree, and has estimated that the country has a housing shortfall of around 750,000 homes.

The institution’s deputy governor, Soledad Núñez, warned in September that by 2028 that could rise to one million.

There are 3.8 million empty properties in Spain, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE), but a large number of those are in depopulated rural areas and therefore have little relevance to the current crisis, which is most acute in urban hubs.

Other explanations for this high number include properties awaiting renovation, or legal disputes between family members who have inherited them.

Demographic changes play a major part in the imbalance between supply and demand.

Between 2021 and 2025, there were about 1.2 million new households in Spain, driven in great part by the arrival of migrants who have played a major role in the country’s recent economic growth.

However, house building has not kept pace, with fewer than half-a-million new homes during that period.

That was partly because Spain’s construction industry had shrunk in the wake of the Eurozone crisis, while the cost of materials rose substantially after Covid, and a lack of political consensus put legal obstacles in the way of building.

“It was not a priority for us to build new houses,” Galindo says. “But, once the demographic boom came, we realised how costly it was for us.”

He adds that short-term tourist accommodation, like Airbnb, which has been identified by both the Spanish government and many activists as a culprit, is likely to have had a more localised effect, pushing up prices in specific urban areas rather than having an overall impact.

Nimesh Patel’s stock in comedy has been on an upswing lately. From sold-out shows to a skyrocketing social media following and the release of his first Netflix special, “Buy the Dip,” last month, it’s been amazing the difference a year makes. The new hour filmed in Washington, D.C., delivers surgically precise, dryly delivered jokes and personal stories about America falling apart from the heart of our nation’s capital.

Despite the dire circumstances, it’s in our country’s DNA to believe in the power of the rebound. So does Patel, who’s seen one play out with his own career after taking an unexpected hit. Last fall, the comedian faced public backlash for his decision to accept — and then reject — a spot on the controversial Riyadh Comedy Festival, for which he’d been offered $125,000 to perform along with major names like Dave Chappelle, Bill Burr, Sebastian Maniscalco, Whitney Cummings and many more. The rollout of a comedy festival in Saudi Arabia, a nation whose government has been accused of human rights abuses and, according to U.S. intelligence, the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at its consulate in Turkey, lead to a war of words on the internet aimed at the comedians on the lineup. Hearing the scrutiny loud and clear and ultimately deciding the money wasn’t worth it, Patel decided to pull out and tell the world via Instagram that he wasn’t going, opting instead (and somewhat grudgingly) to make up for the lost bag with 40 extra shows added to his nationwide theater tour. The response to his video announcement drew even more ire from comedy fans. Looking back on it now, he admits his delivery at the time, looking tired and somewhat annoyed by his own decision, wasn’t the greatest.

“People read that as sarcasm and like woe is me,” Patel said in a recent conversation with The Times over Zoom. “I can see why they thought that I was a poor actor in the video that I posted. But everyone acts better than the person they see on the screen until it becomes their life and then they’re like, ‘Oh s—, yeah, I probably would have done the same thing.’ So, f— them!”

Despite the roasting he received, Patel stuck to his word and did the shows. Stepping on stage night after night to earn the money he had planned on making last year from one canceled gig in Saudi Arabia gave him the reps he says he needed to perfect the new hour of material. The title “Buy the Dip” is a nod to the remnants of his former career in finance — it’s stock market terminology about buying a failing asset with the hope that it will go up in value again. But it also describes the optimism from which he now makes his decisions as a parent and as someone who still believes that things can get better, even at their lowest.

“I have to be an optimist, I have to believe the world is getting better, because otherwise, what the f— did I do by having a kid?” he said.

In his Netflix debut special, “Buy the Dip,” comedian Nimesh Patel turns personal setbacks and a troubled America into sharply observed jokes grounded in unexpected optimism.

(Courtesy of Netflix)

His belief in positivity followed him to D.C. to record the special, the town where he says he got his first big breaks as a comedian opening for major acts like Maz Jobrani at the Warner Theatre, headlining the Bier Baron and the DC Improv and even the Kennedy Center — “or the now-defunct Trump whatever you’re supposed to call it,” he joked. When it comes to his comedy trajectory, taking the long view is essential to realizing that Patel’s path to this special started over a decade ago when Chris Rock discovered him while on stage in Brooklyn and helped him get writing gigs on “Saturday Night Live” and the 2016 Oscars ceremony, two opportunities that solidified his resolve to go into comedy full-time after he lost his job in finance.

As an Indian American comedian, he knows there is a spotlight of cultural representation on him, which he notes in the special and even makes fun of. That kind of attention isn’t on just him but also on Indian Americans in even higher-profile jobs, such as, say, the first Indian American director of the FBI, the chronically embattled Kash Patel.

“Let me be clear, it’s really difficult to both be proud of Kash and despise him at the same time,” Patel says. On the one hand, there’s the astonishing feat of going from being one of the few Indian kids in Virginia amid post-9/11 racism to becoming head of the nation’s domestic intelligence agency. On the other there’s a career riddled with gaffes and allegedly immoral conduct that makes him an easy punching bag for the writers at “SNL” with the help of his late-night TV doppelganger Aziz Ansari.

“For him to go from that to then be serving the country at this level, that is an incredible achievement, and it’s just so sad that that is who our representative is at the moment,” Patel said. “Just like when an Uber driver says to me, ‘Your last name is Patel? Like Kash?’ I’m like, ‘Yeah, just like that, but not like that at all, you know?’”

Patel revisits the backlash he faced after accepting, then withdrawing from, Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Comedy Festival, and how dozens of extra tour dates helped shape his new material.

(Courtesy of Netflix)

While trying to distance himself from one person who shares his family name, when it comes to his actual family, Patel has plenty of jokes of being too close to them. Like many millennials, he’s squeezed tight between caring for aging parents and raising a child. At 40, he says in the special that people in his age bracket have become the “Sandwich Generation.” Though, to be fair to his toddler, keeping track of his parents is a much harder task at times.

“They won’t take help. They’re very independent, and I imagine I was the same way when I was growing up,” Patel said. “So it’s that in itself is just like the Progressive commercial that we’re all becoming our parents, but in real life and not driven by a corporate marketing team. It’s just funny to see that play out.”

Whether the obstacles he faces in life are laugh-out-loud funny or career hurdles that threaten to topple him into the abyss, the idea that he can always bounce back is the key to staying unfazed during the highs and the lows of life. And to the extent that anyone can take a lesson from Patel in the art of staying even-keeled, he hopes the special will make people feel a little less bad about the country being on the brink of destruction.

“Everyone knows that we’re not in a good spot right now,” he said. “The dip is here now. I fully believe that we can recover, I hope that we can. It’s going to be a lot of pain. I don’t know if we’re at the bottom just yet, but I’m optimistic, and I have to be. Otherwise, I don’t know what I’m doing.”

Away from the TV sets and shows, Stephen Mulhern’s had his fair share of drama and heartbreak over the years

He’s one of the country’s beloved presenters, but Stephen Mulhern has faced his fair share of drama and heartbreak in real life.

The TV star and magician has become a staple on screens since shooting to fame. His big break came at 20, when he appeared on The Big Big Talent Show, hosted by Jonathan Ross in the late 90s.

Since then, he has remained booked and busy: from hosting Dancing on Ice and the reboot of Deal or No Deal, to performing magic shows up and down the country.

Away from the TV sets and stages, though, what do we know about Stephen’s life? Who is his famous ex-partner? What was the ‘worrying’ illness he had to endure? Here’s everything we know about Stephen Mulhern.

Stephen’s shock suspension

Before becoming a national treasure, Stephen Mulhern started out as a keen magician and was the youngest member of the Magic Circle. The iconic magic organisation broke with tradition and allowed a 17-year-old Stephen at the time into their ranks

However, Stephen ended up getting suspended from the organisation after he broke one of their rules – never reveal your tricks. The presenter taught viewers a card trick on the TV show ‘Finger Tips.’ His membership was later reinstated.

“The trick was to put a box on your head and turn this ratchet so it looks like your head is spinning, so I did it on Fearne, and then showed them how to make it,” he told Heat Magazine in 2015.

Stephen added, “Well, the Magic Circle deemed it too good to reveal, so they suspended me.”

Stephen’s father’s death

Stephen was left devastated in November 2024 when his father, Christopher, died at the age of 76. Stephen developed an interest in comedy and magic from his father, who taught him tricks as a child.

“Magic was my dad’s hobby — and he was great at it,” he told The Sun in 2025 before adding: “Rather than a bedtime story, he would do a magic trick. He’d make a handkerchief vanish and appear under the pillow.”

And during an appearance on his ITV show, The Accidental Tourist in 2025, Stephen opened up about his father. Before setting off on his adventure, Stephen confided in the cameras: “If I were to tell my dad this, my dad passed away at the start of the year.”

Overcome with emotion, he had to pause the interview, apologising with a simple: “Sorry.” He then added, “[My dad] wouldn’t believe it. I hope he would be proud.”

Stephen’s health crisis

In November 2024, just weeks after his dad’s death, Stephen found himself in a health scare after reportedly collapsing at a Pizza Express and was subsequently rushed to the hospital.

Stephen was suspected of having had an adverse reaction to medication, which was exacerbated after consuming alcohol with his meal. He had also undergone a procedure earlier that day, which required anesthesia.

A source told The Mirror at the time: “Stephen has had an incredibly tough time over the past few weeks. His beloved father recently passed away, which has hit him hard and has been understandably very stressful.

“In addition, he had a procedure which took place yesterday (Wednesday). Following the anaesthetic that was administered, he had a few drinks, which made him unwell, and he was taken to the hospital as a precaution. He is now back home recovering.”

Furthermore, a similar medical emergency in March 2022 saw him hospitalised again and needing several weeks to recover under ‘doctor’s orders’. This sparked concern among fans who noticed his absence from episodes of Ant and Dec’s Saturday Night Takeaway.

After missing three consecutive weeks of TV, Stephen took to X, previously known as Twitter, to provide an update to his followers: “Hello all, Sorry I’ve been quiet on here recently, and thank you for all your lovely messages. I’ve had some time off and been resting up on doctor’s orders.”

Stephen’s famous ex

Stephen previously dated EastEnders star Emma Barton, who plays Honey Mitchell. The pair reportedly met during a 2008 pantomime production of Snow White, where Barton starred as the titular character and Mulhern played Muddles.

Despite keeping their romance under wraps, they parted ways amicably in 2011. Stephen also spoke about the relationship reaching a “natural end” in a candid chat with Celebs Now back in 2018.

He shared, “Last time I went on a date was about four years ago. That makes me sound really sad! I need a life. I need to stop working so much.”

Meanwhile, in 2024, Stephen was romantically linked to This Morning’s Josie Gibson after they were seen hand in hand outside a studio during the finale taping of Ant and Dec’s Saturday Night Takeaway.

The duo, Stephen and Josie, appeared rather close, igniting rumours of a secret romance. However, Josie addressed the rumours and told OK! Magazine that she and Stephen are nothing more than “best friends”.

Deal or No Deal airs Monday to Friday at 4pm on ITV1.

Countries in Central Asia have begun buying oil from Iran as the Russian fuel supplies they have long depended on run dry amid Ukraine’s mounting attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to degrade Moscow’s war effort.

In August, Tajikistan announced it was receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran as Dushanbe faces uncertainty over its fuel supply from Russia. Tehran also agreed to establish a joint refinery in Kyrgyzstan in August, and supply the country with crude oil.

Moscow has been facing fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries as Russia’s war on its neighbour continues to rage.

Can the Russian fuel crisis give Iran a new oil opening in Central Asia?

Here’s what we know:

Which Central Asian countries have been affected by Russia’s fuel crisis?

Ukraine’s offensive against Russian energy infrastructure has caused panic across Central Asian countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are dependent on Moscow for oil and petroleum products.

Tajikistan has traditionally sourced up to 80 percent of its petroleum products from Russia. Kyrgyzstan also relies on petroleum product imports, sourcing more than 90 percent of its petrol from Russia.

“They’ve been hurt the most,” Galiya Ibragimova, a Moldova-based expert on Central Asia with Carnegie Politika, which has its headquarters in Berlin, told Al Jazeera in an interview in August.

Kyrgyzstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, the free trade bloc of five former Soviet nations dominated by Russia and the Kremlin’s political decisions.

Tajikistan is not a member of the group, but it bought discounted Russian fuel as “payment for political loyalty, not because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is so kind”, Ibragimova added.

Kazakhstan, meanwhile, boasts three giant, Soviet-era oil refineries. Still, fuel prices in the country have increased by 15.6 percent this year, the UlusMedia website reported on July 10.

Uzbekistan, on the other hand, is less dependent on Russian energy, with domestic production capable of reaching 100,000 tonnes of petroleum products per month, satisfying most of the country’s needs. But due to the increase in oil demand from its regional neighbours, Uzbekistan has also been forced to diversify its imports and has begun striking deals with countries like Georgia and Iraq.

Why is there a fuel crisis in Russia?

Russia has been facing a severe fuel deficit as Kyiv’s drone strikes – launched in an effort to degrade Moscow’s ability to maintain its ongoing invasion of Ukraine – have knocked out an estimated quarter to half of its total oil refining capacity.

To tackle the problem, Russia has imposed fuel rationing. Sales are often limited to about 20-30 litres (about 5-8 US gallons) per vehicle, and drivers must pump fuel strictly into vehicle tanks. Filling jerry cans is largely prohibited.

Earlier, the government banned petrol and jet fuel exports. Officials are now weighing a ban on diesel exports, too. Authorities have loosened fuel-quality regulations, temporarily allowing lower-grade fuel for the domestic market.

A state of emergency has also been declared in Russian-occupied Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. A Russian-owned oil firm in India, Nayara Energy, has reportedly sold petroleum to Russia.

While Russian President Putin acknowledges the crisis, he appears reluctant to end the war on Ukraine and insists the situation is under control.

“These attacks on our facilities certainly create problems – that is obvious. We are currently seeing a certain shortage, though I would say it is not critical,” he said earlier this year.

“First and foremost, we have to rapidly and significantly increase production of air defence systems that are most in demand. We must also continue to improve them… Repairs at refineries must be completed more quickly.”

So, how is Iran helping Central Asia?

Amid Russian fuel shortages, Central Asian countries like Tajikistan have begun striking deals with Iran.

In August, Tajikistan’s Energy and Water Resources Ministry told the Asia-Plus news agency that the country is receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran. The ministry has not disclosed the route used to transport the products, but Tajikistan expects to receive 2.55 million tonnes of oil and petroleum products from Iran.

Besides Tajikistan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian welcomed a proposal from Kyrgyzstan in August to establish a joint refinery in the Central Asian country, according to a report by Iran’s Tasnim news agency,

Under the agreement, Pezeshkian said, “The crude oil needed by the refinery can be supplied by Iran, and the products can be divided between the two sides.”

Will exporting oil to Central Asian countries help Iran?

The United States and Israel’s war on Iran has affected Tehran’s oil revenues. Data released by the government-administered Statistical Center of Iran in September showed that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 10.1 percent year-on-year between March 21 and June 20, the first quarter of the Persian calendar.

Tehran’s ability to sell crude has also been dramatically curtailed by the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports, imposed for most of the war, which began in late February.

Iranian crude and condensate loadings collapsed from about two million barrels per day (bpd) in March to roughly 740,000bpd in July and just 220,000-255,000bpd in August, according to estimates from Kpler and Vortexa.

TankerTrackers.com told the Reuters news agency in September that 29 tankers, carrying 36.11 million barrels of crude, were trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Vortexa estimated that total Iranian crude afloat had fallen from 135 million barrels at the end of July to 107 million barrels by late August.

Amid these challenges, Iran has been scrambling to find new countries to trade oil with. Russian fuel shortages have opened up new opportunities for Iran in Central Asia, at least in the short term, according to analysts.

How does Iranian oil reach Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan?

Iran does not share a border with either country.

To get to Tajikistan, Iranian “oil and refined products have to cross Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan by rail”, said Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs.

To get to Kyrgyzstan, Iranian oil would also need to pass through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Is trading oil with Iran logistically sustainable for Central Asia?

It is unlikely, Schneider said.

“This opportunity [for Iran] depends on Ukraine continuing to hit Russian refineries, which seems unlikely, both given the waning of Ukraine’s strike capability and the US government’s demand to stop the attacks as they put too much strain on global oil markets,” he told Al Jazeera.

He noted that US President Donald Trump has pressed his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, repeatedly in September for an “energy truce” with Russia, since diesel prices have become a political problem for Trump ahead of the November midterm elections in the US.

“Those truces have so far collapsed within hours, but the direction is clear. Once the strikes stop, or once Russia repairs its plants, Russian fuel will come back to Central Asia duty-free under Eurasian Economic Union arrangements, and Iran will struggle to compete on price,” he said.

Logistics also favour Russia with respect to importing oil to countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, he said.

Unlike Iran, Russia shares a border with both.

“Tajikistan’s own request [for oil] would need around 51,000 rail tank cars, and its main refinery at Dangara has never operated commercially at scale. Russia, by contrast, has decades’ worth of logistics infrastructure, pipelines, rail links, and supply contracts into the region,” Schneider said.

Is Central Asia a big enough market to compensate for Iran’s Hormuz losses?

No, according to Schneider.

Tajikistan’s total demand, Schneider said, was about 50,000bpd.

That is a drop in the ocean compared with the 1.7 million bpd Iran exported by sea a year ago. China reported $9.96bn in two-way trade with Iran in 2025, a figure that does not include some $31.2bn in Iranian oil shipments, according to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“This suggests that Central Asia can be a useful outlet for Iranian diesel and gasoline, but it cannot replace the Chinese market,” Schneider said.

For Tehran, Central Asia’s importance depends on how the US-Israel war on Iran develops, he said, adding that Tehran also needs to stay on good terms with Russia, with which it has a deep strategic partnership.

“Iran cannot afford to be seen as poaching Russian customers too aggressively, so it will present itself as a stopgap supplier, which, again, limits how much it can earn there,” he said.

What other risks does Central Asia face in buying Iranian oil?

Schneider warned that Central Asian nations could be hit with Washington’s secondary sanctions on Iran.

“Legally, US secondary sanctions apply to any foreign company or bank that conducts a significant transaction in Iranian petroleum, wherever it is based, and the Treasury expanded the list of sanctionable conduct in August. A Treasury official has already warned publicly that anyone in this trade ‘incurs that risk themselves’,” he noted.

But Schneider said that, politically, the US sanctioning Central Asian governments is unlikely.

“Central Asia is the arena of a new ‘Great Game’ between Russia, China and the United States, and Washington is courting the region harder than at any point since the 1990s, chiefly for its critical minerals. Kazakhstan alone holds about half of the minerals the US classifies as critical, including uranium and tungsten,” he said.

“Sanctioning a Central Asian government for buying fuel from Iran would push them straight back into closer ties to Russia and China,” he noted.

“What I would expect instead are targeted designations of individual traders, rail and logistics operators and smaller banks, combined with quiet pressure on the region’s correspondent banks. That alone is enough to raise the cost and slow the trade, but will come at the price of these countries redoubling their efforts to decouple economically and financially from the US.”