TODAY

Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.

This week’s caption reads:

The interior of the launch control equipment room in the underground of the Oscar-1 Minuteman Missile Alert Facility on Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, June 18, 2020. The Oscar-01 MAF was constructed at Whiteman AFB in 1963 and determined to be eligible for the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) by Missouri SHPO in 1998. The facility consists of a one-story surface structure, assembled as a Launch Control Support Building (LCSB), and two sub-surface, re-enforced concrete encapsulated steel pods- a Launch Control Center (LCC) and Launch Control Equipment Building (LCEB). These two sub-surface wings are connected by a Tunnel Junction and accessed by an elevator. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Alexander W. Riedel)

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To his supporters, he is known as “King Bibi”; but to his opponents, he is the king of security failures and corruption.

Disputes over names aside, what is not in question is that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has left his mark on the country’s institutions, politics and social attitudes during a decades-long career that has been defined by Israel’s lurch to the right.

As he seeks re-election in Israel’s October 27 polls, analysts say his most enduring domestic legacy may be the right-wing, militaristic opposition that he has helped create and now faces.

Born in 1949, Netanyahu entered Israel’s central political stage in the early 1990s by fuelling anger at possible peace deals with the Palestinians and Syria.

Israeli political leaders have accused him of leading incitement that motivated the 1995 assassination of then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was leading negotiations with the Palestine Liberation Organization, by an ultranationalist Israeli. Netanyahu had led rallies in which participants depicted Rabin in a Nazi SS uniform and held signs of him in the crosshairs of a gun, while others shouted “traitor”.

The Likud Party leader denies any responsibility, but former security officials have said they warned Netanyahu before the assassination and asked him to dial down his rhetoric, only for him to refuse, according to Israeli media reports.

In 1996, Netanyahu’s populist tactics succeeded at the ballot box, making him Israel’s youngest prime minister. Netanyahu’s transactional leadership style gave prominence to extreme-right and religious parties that are now an indispensable part of his right-wing alliance.

Under him, religious courts have expanded powers, including over civil and business disputes. State institutions accommodate religious agendas and allocate record levels of funding to ultra-Orthodox schools and institutions.

Netanyahu inscribed his political ideology, especially on the identity of the state and the status of Palestinian citizens of Israel, into law. In 2018, the Knesset passed the so-called Nation-State Basic Law, which states – among other things – that Israel is the exclusive state of the Jewish people and also makes advancing illegal settlements a national priority.

Human rights organisations in Israel petitioned the High Court to stop the legislation from going into effect, but the petition was rejected. International experts and rights groups cite this law, among others, as evidence of Israel committing the crime of apartheid in its treatment of Palestinians.

Netanyahu also re-engineered state institutions, including Israel’s security structures, appointing loyalists and political allies to senior positions. He also clashed with security chiefs that he deemed antagonistic. And in the aftermath of the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack, which triggered Israel’s genocidal war against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, Netanyahu deflected blame and responsibility on the security establishment, prompting Ronen Bar, who was the Shin Bet chief in 2023, to sue him for defamation.

A major change to Israeli institutions that was spearheaded by Netanyahu during his 19 on-and-off years in power affected the judiciary, which is examining lingering corruption charges that could see him serve time in prison if he is convicted. Netanyahu, who is up against three separate cases of corruption filed in 2019, denies any wrongdoing.

Under his leadership, the Knesset adopted legislation that changed the composition of the Judicial Selection Committee to ensure greater political influence for the governing coalition.

Netanyahu called it “judicial reform” to stop what he often calls a “judicial dictatorship” ruling over elected officials.

Opponents called it a “coup” that sparked wide-scale protests: a push to curtail the independence of the High Court and give politicians influence over the courts and ministerial legal advisers.

In line with his efforts to subvert independent oversight, Netanyahu tried repeatedly, but unsuccessfully, to fire the attorney general.

But he succeeded in dismissing the military’s advocate general for leaking a video of Israeli soldiers gang-raping a Palestinian detainee. The soldiers were also released and cleared of charges.

At the same time, Netanyahu is dogged by corruption cases dating back to 2019, which could see him serve time in prison if convicted

The prime minister, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Gaza, says his work is not over. He promises his supporters he will complete the overhaul of judicial review and press on with other highly controversial policies.

Netanyahu’s supporters and allies view him as a leader who delivers, and one who achieved what others could not. His opponents pledge to undo the damage Netanyahu caused over the past decades, pointing to corruption, social divisions and increasing international isolation as outcomes of his rule.

But undoing such formative changes, many of which are now law, may be easier said than done.

But there are two issues to consider.

Firstly, this is about political choices, and the UK chooses to dedicate larger amounts to items such as universal healthcare.

And secondly, with ageing populations, the OECD reckons the amount needed for pensions may be set to soar in many nations by 2060 (the exceptions largely being those that are deploying changes).

Its predictions for the UK are likely to rise by less under the revised triple lock system being put in place by Andy Burnham but it may still mean more borrowing.

As it is, £1 in every £13 the UK government spends is to pay the interest on existing debt. And countries with more generous pensions, such as Italy, have faced pressure to reform.

So in many ways, with auto-enrolment into workplace pensions, the UK appears to be ahead of the game in insisting on universal privately funded pensions for workers. But that system raises another issue: the gender pension gap.

The gender pension gap is the difference between the average pension income of men and women aged 65 and over, as a percentage of men’s average pension income.

It found that the typical gap in most wealthy countries is around 22.8% in favour of men.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced the beginning of the first clinical trial of an Ebola vaccine in the outbreak that started in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

WHO’s director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said in a social media post on Friday that participants in the trial were vaccinated with the Ervebo vaccine in Bunia, the capital of the DRC’s northeastern Ituri province, which is the epicentre of the Ebola outbreak.

Ervebo, a vaccine approved for use against the more common Zaire strain of Ebola, will be put through a full-scale human trial to see if it offers any cross-protection against the Bundibugyo species of Ebola that is behind the epidemic.

“This trial will help us understand whether any of the vaccine candidates designed for Bundibugyo virus work,” the WHO chief said on X.

“WHO is supporting this DRC-led effort to find answers and save lives,” he added.

The DRC declared its 17th and worst-ever Ebola outbreak in May and has since reported more than 9,700 cases, with the number of deaths exceeding 4,600.

The WHO, in response, triggered a public health emergency of international concern, its second-highest alert level.

The current outbreak has now been reported in four countries across eastern, central ⁠⁠and western Africa, giving it the widest geographic spread of any Ebola outbreak on the continent to date.

Vaccines in the pipeline

The so-called Tumaini trial is a single trial framework that can test the safety, efficacy and immunogenicity of multiple vaccines.

The trial will use a ring vaccination approach: immunising contacts deemed to be at high risk of infection.

The trial is set to incorporate two Bundibugyo-specific candidate vaccines, which are currently advancing through earlier-stage, smaller-scale clinical trials.

One is a ChAdOx1 adenoviral vector jab being developed by the University of Oxford; the other, by the US-based Moderna group, uses mRNA technology.

Both have received funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and are expected to enter the trial “shortly”, CEPI said in a statement.

The trial will include pregnant women and children aged 12 years and older, generating evidence for populations that are often excluded from clinical trials.

WHO emergencies director Chikwe Ihekweazu said the trial was set up to generate the rigorous evidence needed to determine whether the participating vaccines could protect people at risk.

Authorities warn of ‘destructive winds’ and urge residents to shelter as the storm passes the island’s northeast.

Typhoon Champi has struck Taiwan, killing one person and injuring at least 350 others, as authorities warned of “destructive winds” and instructed people to stay indoors.

The storm swept past the island’s northeast on Friday, toppling trees, shutting shops and schools, cutting power to thousands of households, and forcing more than 4,300 people to evacuate from their homes.

Champi is heading towards China and Japan, forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights in the region.

“From tonight through tomorrow morning conditions will be very windy and stormy everywhere,” Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecaster Lin Ping-yu said in a briefing. “Please try to stay indoors.”

Champi was briefly a super typhoon with winds of nearly 300 kilometres per hour (186 miles per hour) but has since weakened. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported maximum winds of 185km/h (115mph).

Worse is still expected to come on Saturday. Champi could drop up to 900mm (35 inches) of rain between Thursday and Saturday, with the northeast hit hardest, the CWA said. More than 400mm fell in Yilan County on Friday.

CWA forecaster Lu Kuo-chen said the typhoon could slow near the island’s northeastern tip, prolonging its impact.

About 8,400 households in Japan’s Okinawa islands were without power on Friday afternoon, according to the Okinawa Electric Power Company. Champi is forecast to hover near Okinawa and then China’s eastern coast before turning northeast towards mainland Japan.

Champi is the latest storm in a Pacific season supercharged by El Nino.

The United Nations said on Wednesday that El Nino, a natural cycle that warms the tropical Pacific, is heading off the charts.

“The current El Nino event could be unprecedented in strength. Literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades,” said Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization.

It is expected to peak in December, with its impact lasting into 2027 and beyond.

A father who shot dead a gunman at his two daughters’ school in the US state of Oregon has described “hearing children pleading for their lives” and his anguish over those he could not save.

Three students and a teacher were killed by a 16-year-old former student at Silver Rail Elementary School earlier this month. The attacker was then killed by parent Kaylub Giamanco.

“I want to apologise for not saving their babies,” Giamanco, who has been hailed as a hero, said of his thoughts for the parents of the children killed in an interview with Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) that aired on Friday.

“The gratitude for saving people’s children is awesome, but there were ones that I didn’t save.”

Giamanco, 36, said he wanted to meet the victims’ families and “cry with them and hold them”.

He credited a teacher who fought the attacker with giving him the chance to intervene without losing his own life.

“I would love to give her a hug because that’s a real true hero,” he said.

The students who were killed were all boys, aged five, eight and 11. They were among six people in total who were shot in a classroom at the school, police said. Alongside the teacher who was also killed, another child and a teacher were wounded.

Giamanco told OPB the day of the attack began with breakfast and packed lunches. He and his wife spent extra time getting their daughters ready because it was school picture day.

The carpenter had taken lunch to work but decided to go home to eat with his wife instead. That decision brought him past the school as the attack began.

He initially wondered whether someone carrying a long gun was playing a prank. Then he saw him fire at a pickup truck and head towards the school.

Giamanco retrieved a handgun from his vehicle and called emergency services.

“I said, ‘I’m sorry, I have to go in. People are going to die,'” he told the broadcaster.

He followed the attacker, who shot through the school’s locked glass doors. Hearing children pleading for their lives and more gunfire, Giamanco crawled towards the building.

“I told myself this is probably the last thing that I’m ever going to do,” he said.

U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack suggested on Friday that the U.S. could strike Iran as early as this weekend. His statement caps a week of growing speculation about whether America and Israel could resume major attacks on the Islamic Republic.

“Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely,” Barrack told online commentator Mario Nawfal when asked to explain the end game of efforts to seek a diplomatic resolution. “The president is very clear. He’s open and available and accessible to a deal. And we’ve been at the table for months and months and months… the nuclear proliferation and where we go with the enrichment and all those things are, are details, the punctuation in the chapter that needs to be finished.”

Asked about Barrack’s comments regarding the potential timing of a strike on Iran, President Donald Trump told reporters that the ambassador “is a powerful man, I guess. If that’s the case, I don’t know anything about it.”

Speculation about a return to hostilities was sparked earlier this week after heavy activity of fighter aircraft was reported over Iraq.

On Wednesday, Axios reported that dozens of Israeli fighters flew through Syrian and Iraqi airspace toward the border with Iran on Monday as part of a “power projection” exercise.

The sorties, extending some 800 miles away from Israel proper, were launched after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made a surprise trip to Israel earlier this week to meet with that country’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, reportedly to discuss new plans to attack Iran.

“Israel notified the U.S. in advance and described the operation as a training exercise [on Monday] intended for ‘power projection’ and aimed at deterring Iran from launching attacks against Israel ahead of the elections [in that country],” according to Axios. “Dozens of fighter jets and refueling aircraft” were involved.

After the Axios story came out, there were unconfirmed reports of additional major Israeli military air activity on Wednesday night.

The last known Israeli strikes on Iran came in June. The U.S. military officially concluded major combat operations against the Islamic Republic in May, but tit-for-tat strikes have continued since then as part of an ongoing blockade of Iranian ports. For its part, Iran has continued to launch strikes on commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to have major impacts on global energy markets despite U.S. efforts to safeguard the flow of tanker ships out of the Persian Gulf.

As TWZ editor-in-chief Tyler Rogoway pointed out on X Wednesday evening, the commotion over Iraq was likely practice runs and would be part of the prelude to any major new air operation targeting Iran. Conducting sorties relatively close to the Iranian border would also offer opportunities to gain valuable intelligence about the current state and disposition of that country’s air defenses.

“Dry runs are important for such a large integrated operation,” Rogoway noted. “They can be scaled as the operation gets closer. Getting a large part of the intended force up and in position can really help with the chances of mission success if the actual order to execute is given. So many moving parts to align. Not great to find out any weak spots on night one of a new offensive.”

“Stimulating Iran’s air defenses is critical,” he added. “By Iran operating as if a full scale attack could be coming, their air defenses can be detected, categorized and geolocated. This is absolutely critical prior to a major air operation. Surveilling them during times of lower alert does not provide the same fidelity of actionable intelligence. Knowing where those threats are and how they are operating can mean the difference of life and death and/or will help standoff munitions make their way to their targets as those defenses can be suppressed, destroyed, or avoided entirely via careful mission planning.”

“U.S. officials said the Israelis knew that Iran’s air defense systems would detect the sortie[s on Monday],” Axios’ report also noted. “Some U.S. sources said they had the impression that Israel was hoping the Iranians would fire at the aircraft, providing a justification for launching strikes against Iran.”

TWZ cannot confirm this; however pushing Iran to react would not fit with the goals of a major exercise like this.

There have been other signs that a major new round of U.S. and/or Israeli strikes on Iran might be looming on the horizon. Fox News reported earlier this week that the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and the rest of its carrier strike group, as well as the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group carrying the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), were heading to the Middle East, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

“The ships will arrive in the Middle East by the end of November,” the officials said, according to a post on X from Fox’s Jennifer Griffin on Tuesday. “These new deployments will add about 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Middle East.”

There have been indications of increased U.S. military air activity in the Middle East recently, as well. Observers have called particular significant influx of aerial refueling tankers to bases in the region, as well as in Europe, which would be critical to any new major air campaign.

In addition, there are claims that Russia is evacuating its scientists from the Bushehr Nuclear Power plant and other Russians ahead of a potential new round of strikes. TWZ cannot independently verify this.

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the U.S. and Israeli militaries had “developed specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections,” citing U.S. officials and other people briefed on the deliberations.

Authorities in Washington and Jerusalem appear to be planning “a short but intensive operation” that would last between three and five days, the newspaper added. “The targets would likely include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. Some officials say one more big round of attacks could push Iran’s economy over the brink and force the country to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict.”

Separately on Wednesday, NBC News also reported that the Pentagon and U.S. State Department were relocating personnel from bases and diplomatic facilities in the Middle East, amid the possibility of new strikes on Iran, as well as broader regional security concerns. The State Department subsequently pushed back on that report, saying that non-emergency U.S. government employees and dependents had only been directed to leave Saudi Arabia in response to attacks from Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.

A high-ranking Israel Defense Forces (IDF) official we spoke with said a new war with Iran is not a foregone conclusion.

“I would describe the situation as increasingly tense, with a real risk of renewed escalation,” the IDF official told us. “However, I would be cautious about concluding that another war is inevitable or that its timing can be reliably predicted.”

“The recent IAF [Israeli Air Force] activity is significant, as are the reported military preparations and the increasingly confrontational rhetoric from both Washington and Jerusalem,” he added. “But military readiness, deterrence, and operational planning do not necessarily mean that a final political decision to launch another campaign has been made.”

“We do not see any indications of a need to strike Iran before the election,” IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir also said during a recent closed-door meeting, according to Israeli media reports. At the same time, “if we determine that a strike on Iran is necessary, we will carry it out.”

“Iran is once again attempting to develop a nuclear bomb,” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyua also warned again this week, according to The Jerusalem Post. “My directive to the IDF, the Mossad, and the defense establishment… [is] to overthrow the regime in Iran.”

The IDF official who spoke also raised questions about the potential efficacy of any new major air campaign against Iran.

“Both Trump and Netanyahu have previously described the results of earlier rounds of fighting as a decisive, even total, victory, emphasizing the damage inflicted on Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, its production and supply chains, and its nuclear infrastructure,” the official noted. “This raises an obvious question: If the results were as decisive as they claimed, what has changed to make another confrontation necessary now?”

“I believe we must recognize the limitations of trying to defeat a country like Iran through targeted killings and stand-off kinetic strikes alone,” he added. “Such operations can destroy infrastructure, eliminate key personnel, disrupt production, and delay military programs. They can impose significant costs on an adversary. But they do not necessarily eliminate the adversary’s strategic ambitions, prevent the regeneration of capabilities, or produce a durable political outcome.”

U.S. President Trump’s repeated threats to launch strikes on a very hardened Iranian facility known as Pickaxe Mountain have raised similar questions. The Pickaxe Mountain site is believed to be tied to Iran’s nuclear program, but is also arguably the hardest-to-reach target in the country, and has gone untouched in previous U.S. and Israeli operations.

CBS News reported last week that the White House and Pentagon “have prepared plans to use a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb [MOAB] to hit military sites in Iran,” including Pickaxe Mountain, “if ordered by President Trump.” However, the 22,000-pound-class MOAB, also designated the GBU-43/B, is not a deep-penetrating munition, and it was not immediately clear from that story how the weapon might be employed. The bomb is also only known to be currently cleared for employment via C-130-type aircraft. It has only been used in combat once, in Afghanistan in 2017, where the skies above were entirely permissive. You can read more about the targeting challenges specific to Pickaxe Mountain, and what options the U.S. military might have for halting, or at least degrading activity there, in a previous TWZ feature here.

MOAB’s use case would be limited against sites like Pickaxe Mountain. While its unique overpressure effects could harm any personnel openly exposed inside tunnel systems, it is unlikely to destroy or even heavily damage the hardened facilities themselves. It could cause damage to external support infrastructure and act as a psychological weapon in its own right, but it is not a bunker buster in any way.

The puzzling leak about the MOAB may be part of the administration’s effort to use the media to try and compel Iran to negotiate. This has been a glaring pattern throughout the ebb and flow of this conflict and a common tactic used by the Trump administration.

Talking threatening plans against Iran here. They are always planning and have a slew of options.

The leaks and sources are by and large fully aware what their marching orders are. It’s coordinated. A lever this admin pulls non stop right on cue.

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 15, 2026

For its part, Iran is operating on the assumption that a U.S.-Israeli attack is a “certainty,” The Jerusalem Post reported on Wednesday, citing Iran’s Fars News Agency, a quasi-state media outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). “The report, which cited a senior Iranian security official, added that Iran will consider U.S. politicians legitimate targets if such an attack involves the assassination of Iranian officials.”

The IRGC has also threatened to launch expanded retaliatory attacks on targets across the Middle East in response to any new waves of strikes.

As we noted earlier in this story, Iran continues to actively attack commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The official Iranian IRNA news agency reported that the IRGC Navy claimed that it recently struck four ships transferring oil cargoes in the northern Persian Gulf, while three other vessels suffered damage after striking mines west of the Strait of Hormuz.

While TWZ cannot independently verify those claims, the Ambrey maritime security firm said that the number of vessels damaged during Strait of Hormuz transits has “increased sharply” this month.

“During the two weeks from 3 to 16 October, the number rose to 11 and 13 vessels per week, respectively, compared with an average of three to four per week in the preceding weeks,” Ambrey senior analyst Daniel Mueller noted today in the company’s latest security assessment. “This increase coincided with an expansion of Iranian operations aimed at restricting transits deemed unauthorized, while the US continued to facilitate transits along the Omani coastline.”

On Oct. 9, “the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to pursue and target vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorisation throughout the wider Gulf region,” Mueller added. “During October, incidents attributed to Iran involved merchant vessels off Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Sohar, Oman. Between 8 and 16 October, six merchant vessels – five tankers and one gas carrier – were damaged outside of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, a tanker was damaged offshore Iraq on 20 October.”

Reports emerging earlier this week from The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post do say that oil exports from the Persian Gulf have returned to prewar levels thanks to U.S. efforts to safeguard tankers out of the region.

“Middle East oil flows, including shipments through Hormuz and alternative routes across the region, averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through Oct. 18, surpassing prewar levels of 23.3 million,” according to the Journal, citing ship tracker Kpler. “Preliminary figures show Hormuz oil flows, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, came to around 14 million barrels a day on average for the same period, or 82% of prewar levels.”

From the @WSJ: “Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.”https://t.co/SJo2jlUfew

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) October 21, 2026

However, global energy oil markets continue to be under immense strain as a result of the ongoing fallout from the conflict with Iran, thanks in no small part to surging insurance costs for shipping companies. This has been further exacerbated now by Yemen’s Houthis expanding their attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, including a recent strike near the Shaybah oilfield. The Houthis are also exerting their own pressure shipping passing through the Bab Al Mandab Strait, a critical chokepoint that links the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

A Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognized government has been embroiled in an on-again-off-again conflict with the Houthis since 2014. Fighting with the Iranian-supported Yemeni militants in and around the Red Sea was inflamed last year as a by-product of Israel’s 12 Day War with Iran. The Houthis also retaliated with missile and drone attacks in support of Iran in the wake of U.S. and Israel launching their major operations against the regime in Tehran in February.

The U.S. government and the Houthis have been observing a tenuous ceasefire since May 2025. This has continued despite the Yemeni miltants now imposing a blockade on the Bab Al Mandab Strait, and a new campaign of strikes on Saudi ships in the southern part of the Red Sea, as well as targeting critical energy terminals on that body of water and Saudi refineries. Iranian proxies have also struck the vital East-West pipeline that carries oil to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. That line has reportedly since reopened after being shut down following a long-range drone attack.

The two sides have also been fighing battles across much of Yemen and the conflict between the two parties is ongoing.

“On Wednesday, two people were killed and two others injured by debris from intercepted drones near a processing plant at the Shaybah field, one of the biggest oilfields in Saudi Arabia,” The National noted. “Operations at the Shaybah field and its processing facilities remain unaffected, but the attack rattled markets again amid concerns about potential disruption to Saudi supply just as the Kingdom has largely restored its exports via the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.”

As a result, the per-barrel price of Brent crude has jumped to more than $114 as of Friday morning, according to OilPrice.com, the highest that it has been since May during intensified fighting between the U.S. and Iran.

In addition, Saudi Aramco has told staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely, Reuters reported, citing six people with knowledge of the matter. The move came a day after two people were killed in an attack on a nearby airport. The order marked the ​first time Aramco had asked staff to evacuate its headquarters since the start of the Iran war, Reuters added.

The Houthis “caused extensive damage ⁠to the company’s headquarters earlier this month when they struck the building, with fire spreading across several floors,” the outlet explained.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have spurred Britain to commit to providing “defensive counter air missions to support the protection of Saudi cities and critical national infrastructure against aerial attack, using RAF Typhoon fighter jets,” Defense Secretary Wes Streeting said in a statement. “These aircraft will operate in a defensive role and will not conduct offensive strikes against the Houthis. The UK will provide an RAF A400M to support the movement of defense materiel within Saudi Arabia, alongside UK military advisers to support Saudi staff officers.”

“The continuing attacks from the Houthis on our ally Saudi Arabia are absolutely despicable,” Streeting said.

As we noted earlier in this story, the U.S. is continuing its naval blockade of Iranian ports.

U.S. Central Command said Thursday on X that its renewed naval blockade of Iranian ports, now in its 100th day, “has helped prevent Iran from exporting at least $25 billion worth of crude oil and constrained the IRGC’s ability to fund proxy militias, criminal networks, and terrorism. There have been no exports or imports to Iran by sea except for the humanitarian aid U.S. forces have allowed.”

Today marks 100 days since CENTCOM forces resumed America’s steel wall naval blockade against Iran. This effort has helped prevent Iran from exporting at least $25 billion worth of crude oil and constrained the IRGC’s ability to fund proxy militias, criminal networks, and… pic.twitter.com/DwiamYBdHY

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) October 22, 2026

Regardless of the reasons for taking action against Iran, the IDF official suggested a new round of kinetic strikes might not achieve the desired effects.

“Both Trump and Netanyahu have previously described the results of earlier rounds of fighting as a decisive, even total, victory, emphasizing the damage inflicted on Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, its production and supply chains, and its nuclear infrastructure,” the official noted. “This raises an obvious question: If the results were as decisive as they claimed, what has changed to make another confrontation necessary now?”

“I believe we must recognize the limitations of trying to defeat a country like Iran through targeted killings and stand-off kinetic strikes alone,” he added. “Such operations can destroy infrastructure, eliminate key personnel, disrupt production, and delay military programs. They can impose significant costs on an adversary. But they do not necessarily eliminate the adversary’s strategic ambitions, prevent the regeneration of capabilities, or produce a durable political outcome.”

For its part, Iran is operating on the assumption that a U.S.-Israeli attack is a “certainty,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News Agency reported, according to the Jerusalem Post.

“The report, which cited a senior Iranian security official, added that Iran will consider U.S. politicians legitimate targets if such an attack involves the assassination of Iranian officials,” the publication added.

The IRGC also announced that it was preparing to unveil a new weapon, which it dubbed the “Father of All Bombs,” in response to U.S. threats to use the most powerful conventional bomb in the American arsenal against Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Jerusalem Post also reported.

Officials, however, declined to offer any details about what kind of weapon it is, its power, whether it is operational or when it will be shown to the public, the Post noted.

In addition to the strategic and tactical issues in the region, the IDF official we spoke with raised concerns that “domestic political considerations may influence the rhetoric and decisions” of Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump. Israel is holding nationwide parliamentary elections on October 27 that could have significant domestic political ramifications. The same is true of mid-term elections in the United States in November.

“I cannot know their precise calculations, but the possibility that political incentives could affect decisions with such enormous strategic consequences should not be dismissed,” the IDF official cautioned. “With Israel’s elections approaching, I sincerely hope that Netanyahu will not make a decision with far-reaching consequences for the country’s security based, even partly, on immediate political considerations. The stakes are simply too high for military action to become a means of reshaping a domestic political narrative.”

In a phone call with Trump recorded live on Monday and posted on his X account, Netanyahu thanked the American leader for his election endorsement and suggested future operations against Iran.

“Donald, we have a job to finish [in Iran]…and we’ll finish it together,” the Israeli leader told Trump. “We’ll finish it, and no one else will do it.”

בשיחה עם ידידי הנשיא טראמפ לאחר שהודיע על תמיכתו בי בבחירות. יחד אנחנו הולכים להסיר את האיום האיראני לתמיד! צאו להצביע מחל! pic.twitter.com/GuPEAPn0Tc

— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) October 19, 2026

As for Trump, the President has previously said the war with Iran will end “immediately after the election” and has reportedly told aides he expects to resume strikes on the Islamic Republic after the midterms. Domestic U.S. polls show the ongoing conflict continues to be deeply unpopular with voters, who are also eager to see it concluded.

Speaking to reporters Thursday afternoon, Trump acknowledged that the Iran war could have a negative impact on Republican hopes for the midterms.

“Well in one way, they love it because I’m doing what should have been done by other presidents, and another way maybe they don’t,” Trump said. “It’s — there’s a price to pay, which I knew immediately when I did it, but we can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon. I mean, in one way, people probably don’t love it, but many people, many great patriots, really love it. This should have been done a long time ago by other presidents. The Iran War, and we’ve knocked the hell out of them, and we may do it a little bit further.“

Q: How do you feel the Iran war impacted the midterm races?

Trump: In one way, they love it. In another way, maybe they don’t. There’s a price to pay. pic.twitter.com/qtkE9M2vSQ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 22, 2026

Later on Thursday, the American president said that: “We’re gonna have Iran finished very soon, one way or the other. It’s almost insignificant to me which way.”

U.S. President Donald Trump on Iran:

“We’re gonna have Iran finished very soon. one way or the other. It’s almost insignificant to me which way.

It’s going to be done very soon, and your gasoline prices and your oil is going to come tumbling down.”
pic.twitter.com/vIGviqe8gi

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 23, 2026

While indicators are pointing to the U.S. and Israel at the very least in the very late stages of planning for new strikes against Iran, even if that doesn’t happen, the Middle East will remain a top concern. The ongoing threats to shipping and the escalating fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are having increasingly dire impacts on gas prices, which is spiking inflation, and causing heavy pressure on the global economy.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Denmark is set to acquire Anthem long-range strike weapons from U.S.-based defense startup Covenant, as well as Joint Strike Missile (JSM) cruise missiles from Norway’s Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace. The twin-track approach by the Nordic NATO member will give it all-new options for launching long-range strikes from the ground and air. Furthermore, Denmark’s move reflects a broader European push to acquire longer-range strike options, especially by NATO allies seeking to deter Russia.

Danish Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus announced the planned purchases yesterday. He said the new weapons would strengthen Denmark’s ability to respond to an attack and strike targets “behind enemy lines,” according to Reuters. Copenhagen has not disclosed the number of missiles involved, the value of the purchases, or expected delivery dates.

“We’re in a serious and deteriorating security situation, and that is why we are building up the defense and strengthening our combat power,” Bruus told reporters. The planned acquisitions are a “strong signal that we have the ability to strike back,” he added, without explicitly naming any particular adversary.

The Danish government did say last year that it would pursue new long-range offensive precision weapons, in general, in response to the growing security concerns in Europe amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Bruus’ announcement comes amid a new surge in geopolitical friction between Russia and members of the NATO alliance.

The two new acquisitions will provide Denmark with important complementary strike options. Anthem is a ground-launched weapon, while JSM is designed to be air-launched, including by stealthy F-35 fighters just like those in Danish Air Force service today. Together, the weapons are set to expand the range of platforms from which Denmark can deliver stand-off precision strikes and give its armed forces additional options for attacking high-value military targets.

Anthem is being developed by Covenant, a U.S.-based defense company that has also outlined plans to establish missile production in Germany and Israel. The system’s selection by Denmark gives the company an important European customer as NATO members seek to expand their inventories of long-range weapons.

Covenant’s Anthem is in a category of munitions that increasingly blurs the line between long-range kamikaze drones and traditional cruise missiles. It is designed to offer a lower-cost, longer-range strike capability that can be produced more easily and at greater scale than many existing systems. Covenant has not publicly disclosed the weapon’s range. Still-unconfirmed reports put it at roughly 740 miles (1,200 kilometers). It is also said to carry a warhead weighing more than 200 kilograms (441 pounds). It also uses a solid rocket motor to provide an initial boost at launch before transitioning to a heavy-fuel jet engine for cruise flight.

Currently, it is unclear how exactly Anthem is launched. It has already undergone testing with the U.S. Army, and images from those trials show the weapons being handled on the ground using a tricycle undercarriage. This may point to rocket-assisted takeoffs from runways.

Last month, Covenant announced it had already conducted more than 200 test flights of Anthem and had secured roughly $150 million in orders. It also disclosed that an unidentified international customer was expected to begin receiving German-built weapons before the end of this year. This may well be Denmark, though there could also be other customers that have yet to emerge publicly. Meanwhile, U.S. Army deliveries are expected in 2027, under an accelerated qualification contract.

Anthem reflects a broader push, globally, for new long-range strike weapons that can be manufactured rapidly and in large quantities, potentially trading some of the performance and sophistication of more expensive, ‘exquisite’ weapons for affordability, scalability, and mass availability. Recent conflicts in the Middle East, as well as the war in Ukraine, have underscored the challenges of bolstering stockpiles of critical munitions and replenishing them during prolonged fighting.

JSM, developed by Kongsberg in cooperation with U.S. defense contractor Raytheon, is a traditional air-launched cruise missile capable of being employed against targets on land and at sea. It is capable of being carried internally and externally on the A and C variants of the F-35. The design has also been fit-checked for external carriage on a variety of other tactical jets. As already mentioned, JSM will provide an entirely new stand-off precision-strike option for Denmark’s F-35As. These are the only tactical jets in Danish service today following the retirement of the country’s F-16 Vipers in January.

Kongsberg has identified Denmark as the seventh country to select JSM, although the final contract scope and value remain subject to negotiations. JSM is an enlarged derivative of the surface-launched Naval Strike Missile (NSM), which has also seen growing worldwide sales in recent years, including to the U.S. military. Since 2025, Denmark has also been fielding NSM on its Iver Huitfeldt class frigates and as part of a ground-based coastal defense system.

Since JSM is designed to be air-launched, its maximum range is dependent in part on the altitude at which the missile is released, as well as the speed of the aircraft carrying it. Kongsberg has said in the past the missile can fly out to a range of more than 300 nautical miles, but also that its reach is significantly cut back when it is employed in its low-altitude penetration mode.

The JSM carries a 260-pound warhead and uses a combination of GPS, inertial navigation (INS), and terrain mapping to guide it toward its target. The terrain-mapping capability provides an additional means of navigation, helping the missile maintain its course even in environments where GPS connectivity is degraded or unavailable.

The missile switches over to an imaging infrared seeker to provide precise target discrimination during the terminal phase of flight. Because the seeker operates passively, it does not rely on emitting radiofrequency signals, reducing the risk of detection and making it immune to conventional radiofrequency jamming. The agile JSM’s overall design also includes reduced-signature features to help limit its detectability and improve its survivability on the way to the target.

A two-way datalink also allows the missile to receive updated targeting information while en route, or to be redirected toward an entirely different target during the mid-course phase of flight.

The dual purchases build on a broader Danish effort to field new options for holding targets at extended ranges at risk. Denmark previously operated eight M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), but retired them in 2004. The country is now introducing Israel’s PULS rocket artillery system, which can employ different rocket and missile types depending on the mission. Presently, the Danish military looks to be fielding PULS just with artillery rockets.

In terms of Denmark’s current and future ground-based capabilities, PULS – which stands for Precise and Universal Launch System – and Anthem will serve different. In Danish service, PULS provides a flexible rocket artillery capability, while Anthem will offer a cruise-missile-like option for longer-range precision attacks.

The acquisition of JSM also reflects the importance of Denmark’s F-35 fleet to its future combat capability. Air-launched weapons offer mobility and flexibility, but their employment depends on available aircraft. In this context, Denmark’s planned expansion of its F-35 fleet from 27 to 43 aircraft, announced in October 2025, will provide a larger platform base for its emerging long-range strike capability.

Følg en dansk F-35 pilot i aktion på amerikansk himmel

There could be some overlap here between Denmark’s growing array of air- and ground-based strike capabilities, as well. Dutch F-35As demonstrated their ability to provide targeting data to PULS launchers during a NATO exercise last year. A ground-launched weapon like Anthem also provides an alternative long-range strike option that does not require a fighter to carry it aloft, creating additional operational flexibility.

For Denmark, acquiring JSMs and Anthems also offers the appeal of adding a capable higher-end munition alongside a more affordable, readily available long-range strike weapon. Reuters has reported that Covenant expects Anthem to eventually cost in the mid-six-figure range, although a final unit price has not been disclosed. Meanwhile, the JSM has a reported unit cost of approximately $2.8 million.

As mentioned, the announcement of the Anthem and JSM purchase is fully in line with prior statements from the government in Copenhagen about acquiring new long-range strike options. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen previously urged the military to accelerate procurement across the board after years of comparatively limited defense spending.

The long-range strike acquisitions also fit into a broader NATO effort to strengthen deterrence across the Baltic region and the alliance’s northeastern flank.

Denmark occupies a strategically important position linking the Baltic Sea to the North Sea, while its forces contribute to NATO’s regional presence and reinforcement plans. The ability to strike targets deep behind enemy lines will provide a new ability for Denmark to threaten an adversary’s military infrastructure, command facilities, and other critical targets.

Denmark is far from alone in pursuing new long-range strike capabilities. In September, Latvia moved to acquire Anduril’s Barracuda family of long-range strike missiles, building on its earlier order for Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles. Poland is expanding its own layered strike capabilities, while France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom are working on the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) initiative to accelerate the development and procurement of next-generation weapons. The efforts reflect a wider shift across Europe toward restoring deep-strike capabilities that have been relatively scarce among NATO’s European members since the end of the Cold War.

All of this is happening while the Baltic states, in particular, increasingly voice their concerns that Russia could seek to exploit vulnerabilities along NATO’s northeastern flank. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have all warned about the risks posed by Russian force expansion, airspace incursions, sabotage, and other potential provocations. In response, NATO has stepped up its regional posture through initiatives, including Operation Eastern Sentry.

The news about Denmark’s new long-range strike plans has already drawn a heated reaction from Moscow. Russia’s embassy in Copenhagen accused Denmark of pursuing confrontation with Russia and warned of “inevitable disastrous consequences,” Reuters reported.

Many details about the planned Anthem and JSM acquisitions still remain to be learned. However, the announcement yesterday is a clear signal of Copenhagen’s intention to give its armed forces a more substantial ability to threaten targets at distance, and reflects still-growing trends elsewhere in Europe.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Burnham announced the decision to approve the drilling of the Jackdaw gas field earlier this week.

Jackdaw is situated 150 miles (241km) east of Aberdeen and is operated by Adura, a joint venture between Shell and Norwegian state energy firm Equinor.

Ministers said the first gas could be produced by the end of this month, helping heat millions of homes, and also announced the creation of a new energy wealth fund.

Environmental campaigners say the decision would hamper efforts to tackle climate change and make “no meaningful difference” to UK energy security.

Based on official forecasts for the amount of gas the UK will need over the next decade, that suggests Jackdaw has the potential to meet around 1.6% of total projected national gas demand between 2026 and 2036.

Operators say it could be connected to the Great British gas network within weeks and could produce gas for the next 11 years.

Trump responded to the decision on Friday, but appeared to confuse oil and gas.

He said: “They’re opening up the North Sea oil. I’ve been after them to do that for two years.”

Trump added: “Andy is getting it done, and I guess it’s against the liberal principle, but he knows what’s right. It’s going to make UK a very wealthy country.”

Earlier this week, on Wednesday, Trump said the decision was “great news for the wealth and prosperity” of the UK.

Writing on his Truth Social platform, Trump urged the UK to go “full blast” and called the North Sea “one of the greatest and most prosperous areas of oil in the world”.

A decision is yet to be taken on whether production can begin at Rosebank, the UK’s largest known untapped oil field, which is located off the coast of Shetland in the North Atlantic.

Antiterrorism prosecutors investigating motive of attack that seriously wounded five, including a 12-year-old girl.

A gunman has killed one person ⁠⁠and wounded five others, including a 12-year-old girl, in a possible Islamophobic “terrorist crime” in the Paris suburbs, authorities said.

An unidentified 39-year-old male suspect was taken into custody shortly after the attacks in the towns of Trappes and nearby La Verriere outside the capital on Friday.

Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said the suspect fired at a children’s playground, a fuel station and a medical centre, the Reuters news agency reported. Three of the victims, including the 12-year-old girl, suffered life-threatening injuries, he said.

Nunez said the attack lasted less than 15 minutes and that the gunman appeared to have used “a military-grade weapon, or at least an automatic weapon”. Prosecutors were treating it as a “terrorist crime” and investigating whether it was racially or religiously motivated, he said.

Trappes Mayor Ali Rabeh said the gunman “appeared to be firing at random and seemed intent on carrying out a massacre”.

“This was a terrorist attack with racist, likely Islamophobic, overtones,” he said.

Rabeh earlier said two of the victims were of African and North African origins.

French President Emmanuel Macron said national antiterrorism prosecutors had taken over the case.

“Our thoughts go out to the victims, their families, and all the residents of Yvelines. In this terrible ordeal, the Nation stands by their side,” Macron posted on X.

Tension ahead of Saturday protests

Separately, security was tightened ahead of protests that are expected across the country this weekend. Many of the demonstrations have been banned following burning and looting at protests last weekend.

Nunez said France would deploy 70,000 officers nationwide on Saturday, along with helicopters, armoured vehicles and water cannon. In addition, elite police units will help secure public buildings, such as city halls, in a “highly mobile” security operation, he said.

Protests last week caused chaos, with people setting fires, storming public buildings, smashing shop windows, looting and clashing with police, in France’s most violent unrest in years.

Far-right politicians say the government has not cracked down hard enough on protesters, while left-wing groups say the security around demonstrations violates rights.

Demonstrators plan to take to the streets again on Saturday to denounce the high cost of living. Students, members of the Confederation of Labour, a national trade union and activists from the “yellow vest” movement, whose demonstrations against social injustice shook France in 2018 and 2019, are all set to join.

North Korea says it has test-fired two types of submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles off its east coast, in what appears to be the first time its bizarre Hero Kim Kun Ok submarine has been seen at sea in a publicized manner. If the vessel truly was the launch platform, the tests would mark its first confirmed weapons trials and a potential step toward operational service. Unveiled with considerable fanfare in 2023, the Hero Kim Kun Ok has been billed by Pyongyang as a centerpiece of its future nuclear-armed navy, but its operational status and actual capabilities have remained unclear.

The launches took place Wednesday, October 14, with state media Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reporting the activity earlier today. North Korea said the tests were intended to assess the readiness of its underwater combat systems, improve the Navy’s ability to execute strategic missions, and demonstrate the reliability of its deterrent. Along with imagery of the cruise missiles, KCNA released one photo of the Hero Kim Kun Ok underway, which you can see at the top of this story.

KCNA did not otherwise identify the submarine involved or disclose the missiles’ ranges, flight paths, or performance. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it had detected and tracked the launches from before firing through the cruise and terminal phases. A JCS spokesperson said one missile type was launched from a vertical launch system and another from a torpedo tube. This would match the imagery we are seeing, it would also match the Hero Kim Kun Ok’s unique capabilities. The South Korean military assessed that the launches came from a submarine but did not initially identify the vessel publicly.

There remains a possibility that the 3,000-ton-class Hero Kim Kun Ok was not actually involved in launching the missiles. North Korea has long used underwater platforms for test missile launches and has paired these with images of an actual submarine for propaganda purposes. However, the JCS confirming they came from a submarine would lend additional credence to the possibility Hero Kim Kun Ok did indeed launch the missiles. If this is the case, it would indicate that North Korea has begun validating weapons systems aboard the submarine ahead of deployment. At the very least, we can confirm that the Hero Kim Kun Ok is now sailing, although South Korean and U.S. intelligence would be acutely aware of its movements and it could have been in at-sea testing for years now, we just don’t know.

North Korea unveiled the submarine in September 2023, describing it as its first “tactical nuclear attack submarine” and one of the Navy’s core offensive platforms. At the launching ceremony, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was quoted as saying that arming the Navy with nuclear weapons “brooks no further delay.”

Nevertheless, many questions remain about the submarine’s design and operational prospects. Overall, it remains a heavily modified derivative of a Cold War-era Romeo class diesel-electric submarine — nearly an antique by today’s standards — rather than a purpose-built guided missile submarine. Previous imagery shows 10 missile launch tubes concealed in the prominent ‘turtle back’ aft of the sail, in addition to torpedo tubes, although the precise configuration, usable capacity, and operational status of those systems remain uncertain.

The absence of publicly reported weapons tests from the vessel over the following years raised questions about its development. Analyst Shin Jong-woo of South Korea’s Defense and Security Forum told Reuters that the latest launches suggested combat-system testing for operational deployment was underway. He also suggested that North Korea may have resolved technical problems and could also test a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) before the vessel enters service. North Korea has previously presented SLBMs of increasing size, but has lacked a suitable submarine to launch them from.

Missile launches while the submarine is submerged represent a more demanding and operationally relevant capability than firing from the surface.

At the same time, a missile launch of any kind demonstrates only part of the capability required for a submarine like this to be effective at all. An operational submarine must also be able to deploy reliably, remain sufficiently difficult to detect, maintain its weapons, and execute missions under realistic conditions.

A vertical launch system (VLS) can provide dedicated capacity for certain missile types — potentially much larger ones — and may enable faster launches or larger salvos than a configuration relying exclusively on torpedo tubes. Torpedo tubes offer an alternative launch method, but with different constraints on weapon dimensions, handling, and firing procedures.

The forward four tubes are larger than the rear six on the submarine’s ‘turtle back.’ This would allow the boat to carry multiple types of missiles, possibly including a mix of short-range and longer-range submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs).

Testing both systems would be consistent with an effort to validate multiple elements of the submarine’s weapons architecture.

North Korea has pursued submarine-launched missiles for years. In March 2023, it reported a submarine-launched cruise missile test from the older 8.24 Yongung submarine. In January 2024, Pyongyang said it had fired Pulhwasal-3-31 strategic cruise missiles from that same vessel. The earlier sub is in the 2,000-ton-class and is understood to have only one or two vertical launch tubes.

North Korea’s description of the weapons as “strategic” cruise missiles should also be treated cautiously. North Korea’s long-range cruise missile program is well established and a nuclear payload is a major part of its ambitions, but how mature or reliable a nuclear warhead is for this application at this time isn’t clear. Regardless, ground, surface, and now subsurface-launched cruise missiles are a key part of North Korea’s broader deterrent architecture.

According to reports, Wednesday’s activity was the first publicly reported underwater North Korean missile-testing event since the January 2024 launch.

Compared to the 8.24 Yongung submarine, the Hero Kim Kun Ok has a larger hull and additional vertical launch tubes, but it still uses very dated diesel-electric propulsion, which presents hugely different endurance, acoustic, and operating constraints compared with nuclear propulsion or even modern diesel-electric submarine capabilities.

As to the expectation that Pyongyang may test an SLBM from the submarine before deployment, this would be a likely milestone toward North Korea fielding a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent.

North Korea is also pursuing a separate nuclear-powered submarine project, unveiled as under construction in March 2025. Its completion and operational timeline remain uncertain. Nuclear propulsion is a much bigger challenge, but if perfected, such a boat would be of considerably greater value, especially as a second-strike capability.

The latest submarine tests come amid a broader series of North Korean weapons demonstrations, including reported hypersonic missile tests on September 20 and October 3, as well as tactical ballistic missile launches earlier in October.

The sequence is consistent with Pyongyang’s effort to diversify its delivery systems and complicate military planning for South Korea, the United States, and Japan.

The activity also carries a diplomatic message. North Korea has repeatedly insisted that it will not abandon its nuclear weapons while the United States maintains what Pyongyang calls a hostile policy. It has also rejected the suggestion that adjustments to U.S.-South Korean military exercises would be sufficient to change the underlying relationship.

The tests also follow North Korea’s rejection of an apparent diplomatic opening from U.S. President Donald Trump after Washington sought to reduce tensions surrounding a U.S.-South Korean military exercise.

A submarine able to launch missiles from less predictable locations complicates defensive planning for South Korea and the United States. The challenge extends beyond intercepting missiles after launch to detecting and tracking the submarine before it reaches a potential firing position. Even a partially capable vessel places additional demands on potential adversaries.

Were things to ‘go hot’ on the Korean Peninsula, any submarine capable of carrying strategic weapons would be at the top of the targeting list for Pyongyang’s adversaries. A submarine based on the archaic Romeo class design would be fairly easy to track from the time it leaves its berth. This is especially the case bearing in mind the sophisticated nature of South Korea’s anti-submarine capabilities.

Future submarines will become increasingly more challenging, however. That problem could intensify if future North Korean boats make more use of Russian assistance in developing their capabilities. Submarine technology is supposedly part of the payment to Pyongyang for its help in the war in Ukraine. This could become a much larger problem, even if Moscow were to provide North Korea with advanced Kilo class boats, for example.

For now, provided that the Hero Kim Kun Ok launched the missiles, which seems most likely, this would indicate that North Korea is advancing weapons integration aboard a submarine intended to expand its offensive naval capabilities. The fact that the Hero Kim Kun Ok is now at sea also signals progress toward deployment.

Whatever the ultimate operational effectiveness of the Hero Kim Kun Ok and its emerging missile armament, Pyongyang continues to demonstrate incremental improvements to its submarine forces.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Former Chelsea and Napoli coach Antonio Conte said he was not in advanced negotiations to replace Manchester United manager Michael Carrick, and called reports that he had demanded full control at the club “unfounded”.

Conte, who won the Premier League with Chelsea and also managed Tottenham Hotspur in England, was responding to speculation that he had requested full control while also making financial demands of the struggling Old Trafford club.

United sit 13th in the Premier League and 20th in the Champions League standings following Wednesday’s humiliating 4-1 thrashing by Italian side Como, increasing scrutiny on Carrick.

“My name has been linked with numerous clubs, but there are currently no negotiations at an advanced stage,” Conte said in a statement.

“Following a wonderful and successful spell in charge of Napoli, I will take the time I need to consider how and when to return to management,” he added, referring to his time in Naples where he won Serie A in the 2024-25 season.

“It will be a carefully considered decision, one I will make when I believe the conditions are right.

“I have read reports of financial demands and requests for full control that I have supposedly already made to the clubs mentioned, as well as reservations about what has been described as my ‘strong personality’.

“These reports are unfounded, as there is currently no concrete basis for such assessments.”

Conte only interest in concrete opportunity with Man United

Conte, who last coached Napoli in the 2025-26 season, said that if a concrete opportunity arose, he would enter talks with the club involved and “jointly consider the terms of a potential agreement”, taking into account the needs of both parties.

“Until then, any assumptions about my demands and my professional future remain speculation and cannot be treated as fact,” the 57-year-old Italian added.

In an interview with The Athletic earlier this month, Conte said he would like to manage a club that has “lost sight of their history” so he can help “make it shine once more”.

Defeat against Como extended United’s winless run to seven games in all competitions, and skipper Bruno Fernandes said his team had adopted a “mood of defeat” while also questioning the tactics, with Carrick apologising for the performance.

Hurzeler ‘focused’ on Brighton job despite Man Utd links

Brighton and Hove Albion manager Fabian Hurzeler, another name linked with the United job, also distanced himself from the speculation on Friday.

The 33-year-old, England’s youngest top-flight manager, said he was focused solely on Brighton, who sit third in the Premier League after a string of impressive performances.

“I have no time to think about these rumours because we play every three days and, beside that, I have a lot of respect for Michael Carrick and what he has done with Manchester United the last season,” Hurzeler told a news conference.

“He’s a great human being, a great personality. There’s nothing more to say about that.”

Brighton’s free-scoring start to the Premier League season has seen Hurzeler touted as a possible successor should United make a mid-season managerial change for the third consecutive campaign.

The Seagulls sit third in the table, behind only Manchester City and champions Arsenal, before Sunday’s trip to Liverpool.

“I am really focused on my job here. I have no time to think about these rumours because we play every three days,” said the 33-year-old German.

Brighton’s scoring streak came to an end in a 0-0 draw at Czech side Jablonec in the Europa League on Thursday.

Despite an excellent start to the campaign, which also includes coming from 2-0 down to beat United 3-2 at Old Trafford in the League Cup last month, Hurzeler believes his side can still improve.

“There is still improvements we can do, still a lot of potential to get out of the players, and therefore I really want to work on that together with my players, together with my staff,” he said.

“I have great experts around me. I have a great group of players who support me, who give everything for this club, and we built this over the last years.

“We had tough periods, we have good periods, but I think to build these kind of relationships, you need time, you need connections, and you don’t take these things for granted.”

More than 400 people are expected to gather outside the United States embassy in London on October 31 in the latest act of mass defiance against the British government’s ban on the Palestine Action group.

Protesters plan to hold placards reading: “I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action,” and campaign group Defend Our Juries said a parallel action will take place outside the US consulate in Edinburgh, Scotland.

More than 3,850 people have been arrested for publicly backing Palestine Action since the United Kingdom’s government proscribed it as a “terrorist” organisation in July 2025, Defend Our Juries said.

The timing of the demonstrations is calculated. In June, the Court of Appeal sided with the government and overturned a High Court ruling that had found the proscription unlawful.

On November 4 and 5, the UK Supreme Court will hear an appeal by Palestine Action cofounder Huda Ammori.

‘Arrested again and again’

Among those Al Jazeera spoke to at the group’s previous action outside Westminster Magistrates’ Court was Teresa, a former teacher-turned-activist who has been arrested multiple times for protesting against the proscription.

“It’s a badge of honour, to be able to do this for Gaza” she told Al Jazeera.

She is not alone. Those arrested at recent actions include Massive Attack’s Rob del Naja, 94-year-old human rights barrister Margaret Owen, former government adviser Jonathan Porritt and the Reverend Sue Parfitt.

Why the US embassy?

Organisers want to raise the possibility that the UK move to ban Palestine Action came under pressure from US President Donald Trump.

The proscription followed an incident in which activists spray-painted Trump’s Turnberry golf course in Scotland. The US president labelled the action “terrorism” on his Truth Social platform and praised then-Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s response.

During the legal challenge, it emerged that Trump and Starmer had spoken by phone twice about Palestine Action in March 2025. Starmer had requested updates from Police Scotland on the arrests and briefed Trump on developments.

The US president’s son Eric Trump also met Scottish First Minister John Swinney before the ban was announced, and documents released under the Freedom of Information Act showed the Turnberry protest was discussed.

The Halloween protests will also come three days after a hearing in the trial of the Turnberry protesters at the High Court in Glasgow. Prosecutors are now seeking to have the seven defendants sentenced as “terrorists”, a move critics called “completely disproportionate”.

The same week that the prosecutors made that call, Washington designated Palestine Action a “terrorist organisation”.

Defend Our Juries said the resulting sanctions have blocked Ammori from crowdfunding for her Supreme Court challenge.

Growing opposition

This week, actors Paul Mescal, Jessie Buckley and Susan Sarandon along with broadcaster Gary Lineker signed a letter published on the cover of the New Statesman magazine urging Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government to drop the “draconian” legislation.

Campaigners said the ban on the group has also in effect halted UK sales of books by the Irish novelist Sally Rooney, a Palestine Action supporter.

However, when author Sarah Helm, wife of National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, publicly declared her support for Palestine Action, the Metropolitan Police took no action. Defend Our Juries said that exposes a ban that cannot be enforced evenly.

Shami Chakrabarti, a senior figure in the ruling Labour Party, has urged the home secretary to lift the ban.

Speaking to the LBC radio station, the former shadow attorney general said it “makes a mockery” of counterterrorism law and the power to proscribe should be exceptional and kept under constant review.

“I’d better be careful what I say, or I’ll be arrested,” she added.

The government’s case

The government argued that Palestine Action’s campaign of break-ins and criminal damage at defence sites, including those linked to Israeli arms maker Elbit Systems, meets the legal threshold for proscription. The Court of Appeal described it as a covert organisation operating through secret cells.

Defend Our Juries insisted its own protests are entirely peaceful.

“This mass defiance and the mass arrests expected to follow will lay bare the fundamental rights to free expression at stake in the Supreme Court hearing just days later,” a spokesperson said.

Northern Germany probably isn’t the first place you’d think of to look for a U.S. Navy and Marine Corps classic attack jet. However, contract aggressor company Top Aces flies a squadron of deeply upgraded Douglas A-4N Skyhawks to support European air arms for their “red air” training needs.

Nearly 3,000 A-4s were built between 1956 and 1979, and TWZ’s Jamie Hunter traveled to the Germany Navy base at Nordholz for the latest episode of our “Special Access” to witness some of the last, and by far the most modern, Skyhawks operating up close.

There he learned what it was like operating the iconic but nearly antique jets against some of the world’s most capable fighters. He also discovered that significant developments are on the horizon for Top Aces in Europe, principally the arrival of F-16s that will further enhance the company’s aggressor services for its growing list of European customers.

Enjoy the show!

Skyhawks On Steroids Playing The Bad Guys In European Skies

Tsuneyasu Miyamoto says it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to host next year’s tournament as scheduled.

The ongoing security situation in Saudi Arabia makes it difficult for the country to host football’s 2027 Asian Cup as scheduled, Japan Football Association President Tsuneyasu Miyamoto has warned.

Several major sporting events in Saudi Arabia have been cancelled or postponed amid escalating attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, raising doubts over whether the continental tournament can take place as planned from January 7 to February 5 next year.

“Based on what I’ve learned from the news, the situation is still unsafe, so at this point, I don’t think it would be easy to hold the [Asian] Cup there,” Miyamoto told reporters at the Asian Football Confederation’s (AFC) extraordinary congress in Tokyo.

“I just had a meeting with the Saudi side and they said that their top priority is the safety of the players, the fans, and everyone who would be attending the tournament.”

“They said they would work with the AFC to decide whether the tournament can go ahead, so they did mention that it would take some time (to make that decision).”

Asian football chief Salman bin Ibrahim Al-Khalifa said last week a postponement until 2028 remained a possibility if necessary, but the local organising committee (LOC) later said it was sticking to the original schedule.

“Preparations across all organisational and operational areas are progressing according to the approved schedule, including work on venues, facilities and supporting services,” the LOC had said in a statement last week.

“(The LOC) will continue to monitor developments relevant to the tournament and ensure the appropriate conditions are in place for its successful delivery.”

Earlier this month, golf’s Asian Tour postponed the Saudi International indefinitely and cycling’s Urban World Championships were cancelled following a deadly attack on Riyadh’s international airport, which killed at least 12 people and wounded more than 300.

Other events have also been disrupted. The Six Kings Slam exhibition tennis tournament in Riyadh was moved from October to December, while FIFA postponed the FIFAe Finals 2026 video game competition in Jeddah until an unspecified date.

The Saudi government has invested heavily in sport through its Public Investment Fund (PIF) in recent years and the Asian Cup was pitched as an early rehearsal for hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2034.