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Military and defence analyst Alex Alfirraz Scheers says the US risks falling into an ‘escalation trap’ if it launches a ground assault in Iran because Tehran still retains a large number of ballistic missiles.

Millions lost power as Cuba’s fifth nationwide blackout of 2026 hit amid a US-imposed oil blockade.

Cuba’s national power grid has collapsed, plunging the island into its third nationwide blackout in less than 10 days and leaving approximately 10 million people without electricity.

The outage began around 11am local time (15:00 GMT) on Tuesday, when the country’s entire power grid went offline, according to the state-run electricity company, UNE.

“There has been a total disconnection of the electrical system,” Cuba’s Ministry of Energy and Mines said on social media.

The latest blackout comes as Cuba faces its worst economic crisis in decades, worsened by an oil blockade imposed by the United States that has deepened fuel shortages and pushed the island’s ageing power system to the brink.

US President Donald Trump imposed the blockade in January after the United States removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power. Venezuela had long been Cuba’s main supplier of subsidised oil, and under US pressure, Mexico also halted fuel shipments to the island.

As of 2023, according to the International Energy Agency, Cuba was producing only about 40 percent of the oil it consumed, leaving it heavily reliant on imported fuel.

The Trump administration says the measures are intended to pressure Cuba’s communist government to hold democratic elections and release what it calls political prisoners.

The repeated blackouts have fuelled growing frustration across the island. Just a week ago, scattered protests broke out across Havana, with residents banging pots and pans and shouting “turn on the lights” as millions endured another prolonged outage. In both of last week’s blackouts, it took over 24 hours to restore power across the island.

Cuban authorities have struggled for months to keep the lights on as fuel shortages and an ageing electricity grid, much of it dating back to the 1960s and 1980s, leave the system increasingly prone to collapse.

Havana blames the crisis on the US fuel blockade, while Washington says Cuba’s communist government is responsible for the country’s deteriorating power system.

Speaking at a UN General Assembly debate on US sanctions last week, US Ambassador Michael Waltz said Cuba’s leaders were to blame for the electricity shortages.

“Change your ways and turn the lights back on for your people,” he said.

The death of United States Senator Lindsey Graham has created fresh uncertainty over the future of Washington’s support for Ukraine at a critical stage in the war with Russia. Graham was one of Kyiv’s strongest advocates in Congress and one of the few Republican lawmakers with direct access to President Donald Trump, allowing him to influence White House policy on sanctions, military aid, and strategic cooperation.

While many lawmakers have pledged to continue Graham’s initiatives, analysts say replacing his unique political influence will be difficult. His death comes as Ukraine faces intensified Russian attacks, renewed debates over military assistance, and uncertainty over whether Congress will approve tougher sanctions on Moscow.

Who Was Lindsey Graham for Ukraine?

For more than two decades, Lindsey Graham was one of the Republican Party’s leading foreign policy voices. Since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he emerged as one of Kyiv’s most consistent supporters in Washington.

Unlike many lawmakers, Graham maintained a close personal relationship with both President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

He visited Ukraine 10 times during the war, regularly met Ukrainian officials, and publicly argued that continued United States support was essential for European security and for deterring authoritarian powers worldwide.

His greatest political advantage was his ability to communicate directly with Trump at times when many other Republican supporters of Ukraine struggled to influence the president.

The Russia Sanctions Bill

One of Graham’s most important priorities was the Sanctioning Russia Act, legislation designed to significantly increase economic pressure on Moscow.

The bill seeks to punish countries that continue purchasing Russian:

Its objective is to reduce Russia’s energy revenues, which remain a key source of funding for its military campaign.

Although the legislation gained 85 bipartisan co sponsors in the Senate, it remained stalled because of resistance from the White House.

Just one day before his death, Graham announced that he had finally secured an agreement with the Trump administration to move the legislation forward.

Many senators now hope Congress will pass the bill both as a strategic measure against Russia and as a tribute to Graham’s legacy.

Military Aid Could Face Greater Challenges

Beyond sanctions, Graham consistently advocated stronger military assistance for Ukraine.

He supported:

• Patriot air defense systems
• Missile production cooperation
• Expanded weapons transfers
• Long term security commitments
• Intelligence cooperation

His lobbying helped improve relations between Kyiv and Trump during periods of political tension.

Last year he also played a central role in negotiating a critical minerals agreement that gave the United States preferential access to future Ukrainian mineral projects in exchange for investment.

More recently, Trump announced that Ukraine would receive licenses to manufacture Patriot interceptor missiles domestically, an initiative Graham strongly supported.

However, Ukraine continues to emphasize that immediate deliveries of defensive weapons remain more urgent than future production capacity.

Why Graham Was Difficult to Replace

Analysts argue that Graham’s influence extended far beyond committee hearings or public speeches.

He served as an informal bridge between:

• Congress and the White House.
• Republicans and Democrats.
• Kyiv and the Trump administration.

Few Republican lawmakers enjoyed comparable access to Trump.

His ability to persuade the president privately often proved more valuable than public congressional debates.

This influence became especially important as many Republicans adopted a more cautious approach toward supporting Ukraine after Trump’s return to office in January 2025.

Several other senior Republican supporters of Ukraine, including former Senate leader Mitch McConnell, are also preparing to leave Congress, further reducing Kyiv’s network of experienced allies.

Will United States Policy Change?

Despite concerns, Graham’s death does not automatically mean a reversal of United States policy toward Ukraine.

Several factors suggest continued support:

Strong bipartisan backing

The Russia sanctions legislation already enjoys overwhelming bipartisan support in the Senate.

Institutional momentum

Military cooperation between Washington and Kyiv now involves long term industrial partnerships, intelligence sharing, and defense production agreements that extend beyond any single politician.

Trump’s recent policy shift

In recent weeks Trump has adopted a noticeably more supportive tone toward Ukraine.

He has endorsed licensed production of Patriot interceptors and appears increasingly willing to allow Congress to vote on tougher sanctions against Russia.

Nevertheless, uncertainty remains.

Without Graham acting as an intermediary, disagreements between Congress and the White House could become more difficult to resolve.

Political Reactions

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described Graham’s death as a personal loss, noting they had remained in constant contact and met twice during the senator’s final visit to Ukraine.

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen and several Republican lawmakers have proposed passing the Russia sanctions bill as Graham’s legacy, with some suggesting it should even bear his name.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune also called passage of the legislation an appropriate tribute to Graham’s decades of public service.

Why This Matters

Lindsey Graham represented something increasingly rare in Washington’s polarized political environment: a Republican with both strong pro Ukraine views and significant influence over President Trump.

His death removes one of Kyiv’s most effective advocates at a time when the war is entering another difficult phase. While institutional support for Ukraine remains substantial, personal relationships often play an outsized role in shaping United States foreign policy, particularly under the Trump administration.

Whether Congress can maintain bipartisan momentum without Graham may influence not only future sanctions but also military assistance and broader diplomatic engagement with Ukraine.

Analysis

Graham’s passing is unlikely to produce an immediate shift in United States policy, but it could gradually reshape the political dynamics surrounding Ukraine. His influence was rooted less in his legislative position than in his personal relationship with President Trump, allowing him to bridge the gap between a White House that has often been skeptical of deeper involvement in Ukraine and a bipartisan coalition in Congress seeking stronger action against Russia.

The sanctions bill may still pass because of its broad bipartisan support and the symbolic significance it has acquired following Graham’s death. However, future military assistance could face greater political hurdles. Weapons transfers and funding packages require sustained presidential backing, and without Graham serving as an intermediary, advocates for Ukraine may find it harder to persuade Trump during moments of disagreement.

At the same time, the institutional relationship between Washington and Kyiv is now far more developed than it was in the early years of the war. Joint defense production, intelligence cooperation, and long term industrial partnerships have created strategic ties that extend beyond the influence of any individual lawmaker. These structures provide a degree of continuity even as political leadership changes.

Looking ahead, the direction of United States policy will depend less on finding a direct replacement for Graham and more on whether other Republican leaders choose to embrace his internationalist approach or align more closely with voices advocating reduced American involvement overseas. The outcome will shape not only Ukraine’s military position but also the credibility of Western efforts to sustain long term pressure on Russia.

With information from Reuters.

Wrapped in a black cloth stained with her own blood, a three-month-old baby in a light green shirt was lowered into a grave beside eight other members of her family. They had all been killed in an overnight attack on Kum, a village in Riyom Local Government Area of Plateau State, in North Central Nigeria.

Residents said the attack began at about 11:30 p.m. on Saturday, July 11, and continued into the early hours of Sunday, July 12. By the time the attackers left, nine members of one family were dead, and the community head, Pam Yohanna, was critically injured.

Pam and his family were fast asleep when a loud bang jolted them awake. It did not sound like a knock, but like someone trying to force the door open. “The door was strong, so they couldn’t break in,” a resident, who declined to give his name, said.

Unable to force the door open, the attackers smashed a window and fired into the darkness, striking Yohanna. His screams for help alerted other residents of Kum village. Residents alleged that the attackers had blended into the area during the day by posing as herders before launching the attack at night.

The attackers then moved to the neighbouring compound, which was Pam’s larger family house. Unlike Yohanna’s house, the doors there could not withstand the assault, and the attackers forced their way inside. “They wiped the entire family,” the resident said.

When residents entered the compound after the incident, they found the corpses and sleeping spaces – mattresses, walls, and mosquito nets – soaked with blood, revealing where members of the household had been attacked while they slept.

Nine members of the family were killed. They were identified as Celina James, 38; James Yohanna, 21; Janet Yohanna, 18; Baby Jennifer Yohanna, three months; Sele James, 18; Melody James, 16; Reto James, 10; Endurance James, 8; and Peace James, 3. James and Janet had recently married and were the parents of the baby, Jennifer. Their daughter was buried alongside them and the other members of their family who were killed.

The family lived on the outskirts of the community, behind the Riyom Local Government Council Secretariat, and not far from a base of Operation Enduring Peace, a joint military task force in the region. The community is also located along the Jos–Kaduna–Akwanga highway.

Pam, who is also the community head, sustained life-threatening injuries and is receiving treatment in hospital.

“This is not the first time we are experiencing such an attack,” the youth leader said.

The attack, residents said, did not come entirely without warning. In the days leading up to it, residents had received intelligence about groups of people moving into the area with cattle. Rwang Tengwong, spokesperson for the Berom Youth Moulders Association (BYM), said he believes some of those moving into the area had been displaced from neighbouring Barkin Ladi and Bokkos local government areas following recent security operations by the Department of State Services and other security agencies.

Residents also raised concerns about the presence of drones during attacks in the area. Chollom Dung, the community leader of Kum, said drones were often seen flying overhead during such incidents, but residents did not know who was operating them. “We don’t know who flies them,” Dung said. “We are not safe.”

Rwang said the attackers came from neighbouring Fass and Mahanga communities, areas he described as having previously been inhabited by indigenous residents before they were displaced in 2004 and 2012. In 2025, the Plateau State Government said that at least 64 communities in Bokkos, Barkin Ladi, and Riyom local government areas had been forcibly displaced and taken over by criminal groups.

“They have been taken over, renamed, and people are living there conveniently on lands they pushed people away from to occupy,” Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang said.

Several residents and community leaders who spoke to HumAngle described the attack as “unprovoked” rather than a reprisal or communal clash, as such incidents are often labelled. “We have not had any issue of cattle rustling in this community,” Rwang said. “…As a youth association, when we notice criminal elements, even if they are from our communities, we hand them over to the authorities, because if we shield them, they will terrorise us tomorrow.”

More than 48 hours after the attack, no official statement had been issued by the Plateau State Government or the Plateau State Police Command. “We have lost hope in the government,” the youth leader said.

At the time of reporting, residents said there was no permanent security presence in the community. Police officers and soldiers visited briefly on Sunday morning, a day after the attack, before leaving. No arrests had been made.

The attack came despite repeated assurances from government officials, including President Bola Tinubu, that efforts would be intensified to end the killings and restore security in Plateau State. However, for residents of communities such as Kum, the continued violence has deepened frustration and raised questions about the effectiveness of those measures.

“There is no way that we have a big security base nearby and attacks happen and no one attempts to stop them,” said Dalyop Mwantiri, BYM’s chairperson. “We are calling for accountability, justice; we are calling for security to step up.”

For residents of Plateau, the concern over delayed security response is not new. In April 2025, after a similar attack in Zike, in Bassa Local Government Area, HumAngle visited residents who complained about the lack of response from security operatives despite a nearby military base.

The graves in Kum are among the newest markers of a season of relentless bloodshed across Plateau State. Data compiled by the Berom Youth Moulders Association shows that at least 121 people were killed in attacks across several communities between May and July 11, 2026. The killings cut across Barkin Ladi, Riyom, Bassa, Jos South, Pankshin, and other local government areas, with 62 deaths recorded in May, 43 in June, and another 16 in the first 11 days of July alone. HumAngle verified some of the incidents by comparing the records with media reports of individual attacks.

Competing accounts in Benue State

The violence was not confined to Plateau. While residents of Kum in Riyom were still coming to terms with the aftermath of Saturday night’s attack, two communities – Akpachi-Ogbuju village and Otukpo-Nobi, both in Otukpo Local Government Area of Benue State – came under attack on the same night, with violence reported on the evening of Saturday, July 11, and into the early hours of Sunday, July 12.

In Otukpo-Nobi, armed attackers struck members of the Inalegwu family at about 5:00 a.m., according to Eric Amodu, a resident who spoke to HumAngle from the Accident and Emergency Ward of the Federal University of Health Sciences Teaching Hospital, Otukpo.

“Six of them were attacked,” he said, adding that the mother died while the five others sustained varying degrees of injuries. Two of them were in critical condition at the Accident and Emergency Ward of the teaching hospital.

The Benue State Police Command confirmed that eight people were killed in the attack, while residents and local sources who spoke to HumAngle reported a higher toll. 

Eric said security operatives arrived in the community hours after the attack. “This is not the first time this community has been attacked,” he said. “It is not the second, third, or fourth. It is probably the fifth.”

Similar to residents in Kum, Plateau State, residents of Otukpo-Nobi said they had raised concerns with security agencies before the attack. Simeon Ikulonu, a youth leader in the community, said residents noticed unusual movements on the Monday before the attack and reported their concerns to security officials. They returned on Thursday to inform them that the suspicious presence had continued.

The attack has since triggered competing accounts about its cause and those responsible. In a statement, Tersoo Kula, Chief Press Secretary to the Benue State Governor, described the attackers as “armed herders”.

Eric, who was conducting ward rounds at the teaching hospital during the interview with HumAngle, said one of the survivors told him that one of the attackers she saw was a woman. HumAngle could not independently verify the claim.

Cletus Nwadiogbu, the Benue State Police Commissioner, described the incident as a “terrorist attack” and said the attackers used guerrilla tactics, striking communities before retreating into nearby forests. “They operate in the guerrilla warfare style. Once they attack, they immediately disappear into the woods, making it difficult to apprehend them,” he said.

Several reports have linked the attack to the killing of Ardo Risku Muhammad, the Benue State chairperson of the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN), an umbrella organisation representing cattle breeders in the country. However, Eric disputed the suggestion that the violence was only connected to that incident. “Even the route he was attacked on is a no-go route. You can’t go there without security,” he said.

Ardo was ambushed and killed on June 26 on a highway in Otukpo Local Government Area while returning from a peace meeting in nearby Ohimini Local Government Area.

The police have since arrested local leaders in the area as suspects linked to Ardo’s death.

MACBAN has also rejected suggestions linking its members to the attack. Ibrahim Galma, the state secretary of the association, said conclusions should not be drawn before investigations were completed. “Making such conclusions at this stage will only compromise the ongoing investigation being carried out by the Nigeria Police Force and other security agencies,” he said. He added that “Fulani residents” in Otukpo and surrounding areas had previously been displaced from the area.

Following the attack, residents protested, demanding greater protection from security agencies.

Benue has experienced repeated attacks on rural communities in recent years, contributing to widespread displacement across the state. A recent HumAngle investigation documented how several communities have been deserted after repeated assaults, with hundreds of thousands of people forced into displacement camps or temporary shelters.

“The attackers keep attacking, and people flee, and they take over, and it continues,” Eric said, echoing concerns raised by residents in Plateau State.

Benue State Governor Hyacinth Alia described the attack as a “barbaric and inhuman assault on the sanctity of life and the collective soul of the people”.

“We will not allow our communities to be turned into battlefields,” he said.

Human rights organisations, including Amnesty International, have called on Nigerian authorities to conduct an independent, impartial, and effective investigation into the attack on Otukpo-Nobi and Akpachi-Ugboju. The organisation said the violence had deepened fear and panic across Otukpo Local Government Area and urged the government to fulfil its responsibility to protect lives and property.

“The protests by youths in the aftermath of the attack show that people have had enough and seek an end to frequent attacks and abductions that have made life a hell in many parts of Benue State,” Amnesty International said.

The organisation also called for urgent measures to protect rural communities and hold suspected perpetrators accountable, warning that repeated attacks across the region have contributed to widespread displacement and a growing humanitarian crisis.

Politician Ann Widdecombe gave a pre-recorded radio interview around 20 minutes before police believe she was attacked on Wednesday 8 July.

Widdecombe, 78, was found dead at her home in Devon on Thursday, having sustained serious injuries.

The former Conservative minister turned Reform UK spokeswoman spoke to British Christian radio station TWR-UK for around nine minutes via video link, but the interview was not broadcast.

The station later shared part of the recording with Times Radio, which first aired the interview on Tuesday.

In the interview, she spoke about her support for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva criticised a proposal by US President Donald Trump to impose charges on goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz, saying such a measure would amount to “piracy.”

Speaking at a public event in São Paulo state on Monday, Lula said “In the past, that would have been considered piracy.”

“The United States is an important country, and I believe it fought piracy for a long time. It cannot act like a pirate today” he added.

Lula’s comments followed Trump’s announcement that the United States would seek to impose a 20 percent tariff on goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz while reimposing a naval blockade on Iran.

According to Trump’s statement, the measure was presented as a response to Iran’s announcement that it intended to close the strategic waterway. He argued that the United States would ensure freedom of navigation through the strait and that commercial shipping benefiting from that protection should contribute to its cost.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “The Strait of Hormuz is open, and will remain open, with or without Iran. We will reimpose the blockade on Iran.”

The proposed tariff has drawn international attention because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes, carrying a significant share of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports. Any changes to shipping arrangements or transit costs could have broad implications for international trade and energy markets.

Ukraine says drones hit 11 Russian vessels in the Azov Sea, targeting tankers, dry cargo ships, and a tugboat overnight.

Russia says it is working to reroute ⁠grain shipments from the Sea of Azov after its vessels came under Ukrainian attacks in the sea, as Kyiv claimed it hit 11 more Russian vessels in overnight strikes.

Russia was preparing to use “alternative shipping routes” and may redirect cargo “to other modes of transport”, Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture said in a statement on Tuesday.

The ministry added that “the situation in the Azov Sea will not affect the domestic market’s food supply or our country’s export capabilities.”

Ukrainian military commander Robert Brovdi said on Telegram on Tuesday that drone attacks hit 11 Russian vessels in the Azov Sea overnight. The targets included five tankers, five dry cargo vessels and a tugboat, bringing the total number of vessels struck in the past nine days to 116, he said.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Ukraine of carrying out “acts of terrorism”.

“What the ‌Ukrainian regime is doing goes beyond even piracy. Pirates, at least, plunder and keep the spoils for ⁠themselves. But here, it ⁠benefits neither them nor anyone else – the goal is simply ⁠to cause damage and ⁠intimidate. It is ⁠terrorism, pure and simple,” Lavrov said.

The attacks come as Ukraine steps up long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries and other energy infrastructure, triggering a fuel crisis in Russia.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its air defences intercepted 288 Ukrainian drones across the country overnight. Russian authorities said falling debris from a drone attack injured one person and damaged houses in several villages.

One attack sparked a fire at the Afipsky oil refinery, authorities in Russia’s Krasnodar region reported.

Ukraine also struck another oil refinery in the republic of Bashkortostan, which had been hit twice in September 2025. Governor Radiy Khabirov said on Telegram that the attack hit an industrial area in the city of Salavat.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have contributed to a fuel crisis, leading Moscow to ban some fuel exports amid a global surge in energy prices.

Russia’s Defence Ministry also said it hit targets in Kyiv, port infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odesa region, and fuel storage facilities for Ukrainian forces in the port of Yuzhny.

Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said ⁠Russian forces struck ⁠a civilian vessel ⁠near Ukraine’s Black Sea port ‌of Odesa. Pletenchuk ⁠reported no casualties ⁠in the ⁠attack.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian military officials said their forces shot down seven missiles and 108 drones across the country.

The Ukrainian government has dismissed allegations that it is backing the M23 rebels in the fight against the Democratic Republic of Congo. Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, described the accusations as “Kremlin disinformation.” 

During his visit to Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that Ukraine is one of the external supporters of the M23 rebellion, which controls significant territories in the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces of the DRC. In a statement on Saturday, July 11, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson said the Russian accusations have no concrete element of truth, noting that his country does not support the M23 rebels. 

“The affirmations by Lavrov according to which Ukraine supports the M23 in the Eastern DR Congo belong to Kremlin disinformation and are devoid of all foundations. We refute and officially reject these accusations,” Heorhi said.

He stressed that his country does not intervene in African conflicts and that Russia is implementing a policy of interference on the African continent while accusing other nations of similar actions. “Ukraine does not interfere in African conflicts. Russia, on the contrary, does so: it arms groups in violation of sanctions, fuels instability and recruits citizens of African countries to fight in its war against Ukraine. Moscow accuses others of what it does itself: there is nothing new,” he reiterated.

The Ukrainian official said these accusations form part of a broader political strategy by Moscow to distract people from its actions and undermine current diplomatic efforts in the Great Lakes region. “The Russian objective is clear: weaken the American mediation efforts in the Great Lakes region and divert attention from its destructive actions which hinder the peace process,” he said.

The situation remains fluid, even in light of the Washington Accord and several evaluation meetings. The security and humanitarian conditions in eastern DRC have worsened. Tensions persist between the DRC and Rwanda, with each side interpreting the Washington Accord differently. This has complicated matters one year after the accord was signed. 

It’s the same issue with the Qatar-facilitated peace accord in Doha. Despite multiple rounds of discussions, the Congolese government and the M23 are struggling to reach an agreement on their key points of disagreement. The Montreux meeting in Switzerland, intended to reinvigorate the process, has not yielded the anticipated results. Commitments made during this phase of negotiations have not been fully honoured, and the worsening security situation in the Middle East has further sidelined this issue, delaying mediation efforts. In light of the current situation, regional and international bodies have urged all parties to honour their commitments from the peace initiatives.

Alexander, who signed a two-way deal with the Jazz last week. was injured in game against Chicago Bulls.

Utah Jazz guard Trey Alexander was taken from the court on a stretcher after appearing to injure his side on a drive to the basket in an NBA Summer League game against the Chicago Bulls.

Alexander, who signed a two-way deal with Utah last week, made contact with the Bulls’ Caleb Wilson during Monday night’s match while driving towards the basket. After tossing the ball towards the hoop, he went behind the basket, clutching his side or abdomen. He then dropped to the ground, appearing to be in great pain.

The 23-year-old was taken from the Thomas & Mack Center court on a stretcher. The incident occurred with just more than two minutes left in the fourth quarter.

There was no immediate word from the Jazz on Alexander’s injury.

Alexander played three seasons at Creighton University and skipped his final year of eligibility to turn pro. The rookie of the year in the G League, the NBA’s minor league, for the 2024-2025 season played 24 games for the Denver Nuggets that same season and nine games for the New Orleans Pelicans last season.

Under his current contract, Alexander is to play for the Jazz and its G League affiliate, the Salt Lake City Stars.

The U.S. Army has announced that its future fleet of ME-11B High Accuracy Detection and Exploitation System (HADES) aircraft will be based at Fort Hood in Texas. The service says it will also establish a first-of-its-kind operational drone battalion at this base as part of a larger consolidation of aerial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets. This all follows the Army’s retirement of the last of its turboprop ISR planes last year.

The Army shared the ME-11B basing plans in the context of the relocation of the 116th Military Intelligence Brigade, headquartered at Fort Gordon in Georgia, to Fort Hood. That process is now underway. The most recent iteration of the 116th has been serving as the Army’s main aerial ISR formation since 2014. Over the past 12 years, the brigade has also overseen units at several other bases across the country, including ones already at Fort Hood.

The Army is currently expecting to take delivery of the first ME-11B prototype before the end of the year. The service is also in the process of acquiring two additional prototypes. The Army plans to buy at least six production examples, but this number could grow in the future. The HADES jets are being converted from Bombardier Global 6500 business jets.

“The move, authorized on March 3, 2026, by then-Chief of Staff of the Army General Randy George, positions the brigade to lead the deployment of the Army’s High Accuracy Detection and Exploitation System (HADES) marking a pivotal step in the modernization of the nation’s global aerial intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance (AISR) capabilities,” according to an Army release today. “This relocation consolidates and redesigns the Army’s only fixed-wing AISR brigade to better support multi-domain and large-scale combat operations globally.”

Fort Hood is one of the largest Army facilities anywhere globally. It has its own airstrip, Robert Gray Army Airfield, which is collocated with Killeen Regional Airport. Signs that the ME-11Bs would be based there had already emerged last month with a contracting notice regarding planned work on hangars at this airfield, specifically to accommodate the new jets.

The Army sees HADES as a critical part of a broader paradigm shift in how it will provide aerial ISR support going forward. The ME-11Bs fly higher, faster, and farther, than any of the now-retired turboprop types the Army previously operated. As such, the HADES aircraft will be able to get to and from operating areas faster, and stay on station longer. Compared to their predecessors, the jets’ onboard sensors and datalinks will have better lines of sight from their perches, too. That higher operating ceiling allows the aircraft to use a slant angle to peer deeper into denied areas while still flying in international airspace and further away from potential threats. 

The concepts of operations for HADES, as the Army has described them publicly so far, also envision the planes launching extremely long-range drones. With ranges of around 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) or more, the idea is that the drones will dramatically extend the sensor reach of their launch platforms, and keep them further away from hostile air defenses. The service says the air-launched drone capability will offer a way to provide a penetrating intelligence-gathering capacity able to support future high-end operations without the need for a very stealthy or otherwise extremely costly platform.

“In 70 or 80 years, there would be 0.1% of the time when you wouldn’t be able to fly ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions] because you would be afraid of the threat, potentially, or the threat would be too high to fly,” Andrew Evans, Director of Strategy and Transformation with the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army, or G-2, explained to TWZ and other outlets at the Army Aviation Association of America’s (AAAA) 2026 Warfighting Summit in April. “That means that 99.9% of the time of a life of the system, it is a useful system for deterrence, for building pattern of life, target development, and so on and so forth. So we’re building a system that can be used for 99.9% of the useful life of the system.”

“There will be nothing in the world that we can’t touch with a combined range of HADES and what we can launch off of this thing,” Evans added. “I don’t think anybody’s safe in the future from a sensing perspective.”

Evans offered additional details about plans for HADES, and hinted at additional advanced capabilities planned for the jets down the line. Each jet will have two hardpoints under each wing for external stores, which could include pods with additional sensors or other systems. You can read more about all of this here.

Significant questions about the Army’s HADES plans do still exist, including when it comes to filling capacity gaps left by the retirement of dozens of turboprop ISR aircraft. As noted, the service currently plans to acquire just six production HADES jets on top of the three prototypes. This is down from the original expected fleet size, which was still just a dozen aircraft.

The Army does envision a future aerial ISR ecosystem that includes other assets, including high-altitude balloons. Those lighter-than-air platforms could take on other missions, as well, and even be able to deploy swarms of uncrewed aerial systems. The service has also been at least been experimenting with high-altitude, extreme-endurance drones. Space-based ISR assets are set to play an ever-more-important role across the U.S. military, too.

The potential for new drone developments brings us back to the Army’s additional plan to stand up what it is currently calling simply the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Battalion at Fort Hood.

“The companies merging to form the UAS Battalion are currently engaged in global operations, and their consolidation will enhance the brigade’s agility, deployability, and lethality,” the Army’s release today says. “The 116th MIB (AI) remains the Army’s sole unit deploying small, tailored forward elements to launch UAS remotely operated from home station, significantly reducing sustainment and mobility costs.”

The 224th Military Intelligence Battalion, currently based at Hunter Army Airfield, which is part of Fort Stewart in Georgia, will at least form the core of the new drone formation.

“Following the divestment of its manned fleet, the 224th Military Intelligence Battalion strategically pivoted to focus entirely on unmanned aerial intelligence. This transition aligns with the U.S. Army’s new force structure, under which the 224th is designated to become the first unmanned aerial system battalion in the Army,” according to the unit’s official website at the time of writing. “This new chapter includes a change of station from Hunter Army Airfield, Georgia, to Fort Hood, Texas, scheduled for completion by 2027. The move will consolidate the entire 116th Military Intelligence Brigade in a single location, enhancing its operational capabilities.”

“The newly formed battalion will consist of a Headquarters and Headquarters Company, two [MQ-1C] Gray Eagle companies, and one processing, exploitation, and dissemination (PED) company,” the 224th’s official page adds. “These strategic initiatives position the 224th at the forefront of the future of Army aerial intelligence.”

However, it is unclear from the details in the Army’s release today whether personnel or assets from other existing units might be part of the “merging” that forms the new UAS Battalion. The formation could grow further in the future. The service says the overall consolidation of the 116th Intelligence Brigade is set to bring 1,228 additional personnel to Fort Hood from Fort Gordon, Fort Stewart, and Fort Bliss (also in Texas), between now and Fiscal Year 2028.

The Army also has other MQ-1C companies assigned to combat aviation brigades at bases across the country. There are additional Gray Eagle units within the service’s elite 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, as well.

It should be noted here that the Army’s present leadership has been vocal in its desire to move on from the MQ-1C, a design with its roots in the Global War on Terror. The service has openly questioned the design’s survivability and general relevance in future conflicts. It has also seen pushback from Congress. Gray Eagles have been actively engaged in operations against Iran this year, as have their MQ-9 Reaper cousins.

The U.S. Air Force has also previously sought to retire its MQ-9s after raising questions about their value outside of lower-intensity fights. More recently, the service has described them as star players in the conflict with Iran, despite substantial combat losses. This has all fueled a renewed debate about the Reaper’s future, as you can read more about in detail here. The Air Force has now also partnered with the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) on a new MQ-9 replacement effort that puts major emphasis on modularity and lower costs.

The Army’s aerial ISR ecosystem is certainly in the midst of a major watershed moment, with HADES being just one part of the future equation. Fort Hood is also now set to be the focal point for those plans as they continue to evolve.

“The key to the future of Aerial ISR is the consolidation at Fort Hood of the mighty 116th!” Army Maj. Gen. Timothy Brown, head of the service’s Intelligence and Security Command (INSCOM), said in a statement per the release today.

Central to that consolidation effort, and the broader future of Army aerial ISR, will be the arrival of new HADES jets at the base in Texas.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

EXPLAINER

Al Jazeera put nine leading AI models to the test to predict the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup champion.

As the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup enters its final stages, AJLabs asked nine leading AI models to predict the tournament’s final podium based on all available data for each team, including:

• Team strength
• Squad quality
• Coaching
• Historical performance
• Team’s performance during the current tournament

France emerged as the favourite to lift the trophy, receiving five (Gemini, Grock, DeepSeek, Le Chat and Qwen) of the nine champion votes.

Argentina, the defending world champions, received the remaining four votes (ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot and Meta AI).

Predictions for the runner-up were more divided: France and Argentina each received three votes, followed by England with two and Spain with one.

Spain was the clear favourite to finish third, receiving six of the nine third-place predictions, while England and France each received fewer votes.

The predictions reflect a broad AI consensus around the four remaining contenders, France, Argentina, Spain and England, but also highlight differences in how leading language models weigh recent performances, squad depth and tournament momentum.

The AI predictions come as the tournament reaches the semifinals. France will face Spain on July 14 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, while England will meet Argentina on July 15 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

The third-place playoff will be played on July 18, before the World Cup final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Champion predictions

• France: 5 models
• Argentina: 4 models

Runner-up predictions

• France: 3 models
• Argentina: 3 models
• England: 2 models
• Spain: 1 model

Third-place predictions

• Spain: 6 models
• England: 2 models
• France: 1 model

Islamabad, Pakistan – A wooden panelled bookshelf behind him, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran, aimed at extending their ceasefire by creating a pathway towards long-term peace.

Sharif then held up the document for the cameras. That was June 17, the high point of a frenzied diplomatic effort led by Pakistan spanning weeks, which had culminated in the MoU that Sharif signed as a mediator.

Yet less than four weeks later, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has, in just the past few days, issued two statements expressing “deep concern” over renewed US-Iran hostilities, with the MoU Islamabad had helped pull together seemingly in shreds.

On Monday morning, the US launched the latest in a series of attacks on Iran, which responded by firing missiles and drones at multiple Gulf and Arab nations that it blamed for hosting US military bases.

Hours later, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters that mediators, including Pakistan, Qatar and Oman, remained engaged and were continuing their efforts, even as he warned that Iran would continue responding to what it viewed as US non-compliance with the MoU.

So far, those efforts have failed to slow down the fighting, even as Pakistan has pressed on with diplomatic outreach.

On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar spoke by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, telling him that dialogue and diplomacy remained “the only viable path” to resolving the crisis.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also spoke to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday, warning that “hard-earned” peace gains were at risk, while Dar held a separate call on Saturday with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

To many analysts, one question, above all, now stares at Pakistan and other mediators like Qatar: With the deep distrust between the US and Iran only further expanding following the new bout of fighting, can Islamabad or any other capital once again bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table?

Repeated breakdowns

The renewed fighting marks at least the third occasion since the US-Iran ceasefire signed on April 8 appeared to have collapsed.

Days after that truce was agreed on, the breakdown of the first round of Islamabad talks led to the US imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Iran both attacked ships in the days that followed.

Then, after the MoU was signed on June 17, Iran attacked several ships that it claimed were passing through the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, prompting another escalation with Washington.

But the Iranian tanker strikes last week appear to have raised tensions to new heights.

US attacks on Iran since then have hit at least 10 provinces, killing a soldier, several fishermen in the southern province of Hormozgan, and a firefighter in Sistan and Baluchestan, according to Iranian authorities.

A railway bridge on a trade corridor linking Iran with Central Asia and China was also struck, along with a bridge near Mashhad used by mourners travelling to former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral.

The renewed hostilities have also pulled Qatar, a fellow mediator alongside Pakistan, more directly into the conflict. On Sunday, Iranian missiles and drones hit the Gulf state, with debris from interceptions injuring three people, including a child, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Interior.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused Washington of violating “nearly all parts” of the June agreement within 25 days of its signing, citing attacks on transport infrastructure and fishing vessels.

Baghaei said on Monday that Iran had “acted in good faith” throughout, but that “each time the other party has failed to meet its obligations, we did not uphold ours, and we will continue to act in this manner.”

Since the war began on February 28, Islamabad has played the role of mediator.

It hosted talks in April, the first time in four decades that US and Iranian officials sat in a room together.

Its army chief and interior minister have travelled to Tehran several times. In late March, Pakistan also helped secure a Chinese-backed peace framework alongside its own diplomatic efforts.

In June, it helped produce the MoU signed by Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump, along with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, which was then discussed at the Burgenstock summit in Switzerland.

Yet analysts say Pakistan lacks the means to enforce the agreements it helps broker.

Javad Heiran-Nia, director of the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, said the MoU was never intended to resolve the underlying dispute.

“The MoU deferred key and substantive issues to future negotiations and functioned primarily as a tactical instrument to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping,” he told Al Jazeera.

Iran, he said, sees control of the waterway as “a strategic asset; not merely a coercive lever, but a deterrent tool”, and appears “prepared to accept the risk of war to preserve this strategic advantage”.

Mediators, he added, lack the instruments to resolve the dispute “unless a shift in the balance of power between Iran and the United States emerges as a result of limited military engagements”, pointing to a potential US naval blockade as one of the few developments that could alter the strategic calculus.

Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum in Doha, said Pakistan’s room for manoeuvre had narrowed as both sides hardened their positions over the strait.

“Pakistan is in a situation where it is highly dependent on both parties, as it always has been, but right now, Iran is bent on establishing its control over the Strait of Hormuz,” she told Al Jazeera.

According to Thafer, there is little Pakistan can do to de-escalate while both Washington and Tehran remain in “an escalatory phase”.

“Once they feel they have reached a point where the balance tips in favour of one side or the other, then perhaps they will return to the negotiating table,” she added.

But Qamar Cheema, head of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, pushed back on the idea that Pakistan is operating without real tools.

He pointed to US Vice President JD Vance’s recent remarks, where he credited Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir’s role in the process, as evidence that Islamabad’s military-diplomatic channel carries real weight in Washington.

Access itself, he argued, is the instrument.

“Pakistan enjoys trust, and that’s why both sides pick up the phone and call Pakistani leadership any time to remove a stumbling block,” Cheema told Al Jazeera.

Crowded diplomacy, narrowing options

But Pakistan has not been the only diplomatic channel, and according to Heiran-Nia, the dispute over the strait was never really Islamabad’s to mediate.

“Iran had previously removed the Strait of Hormuz issue from Pakistan’s mediation agenda, as the matter was essentially bilateral between Tehran and Muscat,” he said.

Tehran, he explained, did not want the issue to be “defined within a broader negotiation package under Pakistani auspices, which would have afforded Washington room for political manoeuvre”.

Direct Iran-Oman talks followed, but “US military pressure and economic sanctions threats against Oman have placed Muscat under considerable strain, preventing meaningful progress,” according to the Tehran-based analyst.

Meanwhile, he cautioned that Sunday’s attacks on Qatar “could have adverse effects on Qatar’s mediatory role”, although Doha “does not currently appear inclined to withdraw”, adding that “Iran should not assume that Doha’s patience is limitless.”

Mustafa Hyder Sayed, executive director of the Pakistan-China Institute in Islamabad, described the GCC states as caught in an uncomfortable position.

“The GCC countries are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. They want a functional relationship with Iran while not openly declining the use of their bases and territory by the United States, because they understand they cannot choose their neighbours,” he told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, Israel, which is not a party to the MoU, has continued military operations in Lebanon, which Tehran cites as an ongoing violation of the agreement.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday that southern Lebanon “would become Gaza”, raising the prospect of further regional escalation.

Who blinks first?

Despite a week of escalating attacks, the core dispute remains unchanged.

Washington and Tehran remain divided over the same issue that stalled negotiations even before the latest round of fighting: Who controls passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and under what conditions?

Iran insists the MoU gave it authority over transit through the waterway. The US disputes that.

On Monday, Trump announced that the US was reinstating a naval blockade of Iranian ships and would charge a 20 percent tariff on all other ships trying to pass through the strait.

Yet, earlier, a possible compromise had briefly emerged.

Heiran-Nia said the parties explored a formula under which commercial vessels would coordinate passage with both Iran and a designated Arab Gulf state, allowing “both parties [to] claim a degree of victory”.

The talks stalled before reaching a conclusion, however, interrupted by the funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war in joint US-Israeli air strikes.

The conflict has since moved in the opposite direction, with military action aimed at shifting the balance of power rather than reviving negotiations.

“The prevailing trajectory now is the continuation of military strikes in an effort to shift the balance of power. Yet, there remains a risk that strategic calculations on either side could spiral beyond control,” Heiran-Nia said.

Thafer believes that, despite the violence, neither side has formally abandoned the MoU.

“Iran is framing this current round of escalation as a violation of the MoU rather than a reason to exit it, which means there could still be light at the end of the tunnel,” she said.

In her assessment, both sides bear responsibility for violating the agreement, from Iran’s attacks on shipping to Washington’s revocation of Iran’s oil sale licence and the military attacks. Yet the agreement remains, at least formally, in place.

Its future, she said, depends on which side ultimately gives ground over the strait. Iran retains what Thafer described as a “snapback capability” to disrupt shipping whenever it chooses.

“It is, militarily, very difficult to fully neutralise that Iranian capability. We will have to wait and see where the leverage finally sits,” she said.

Cheema, for his part, argued that Iran’s own conduct, more than any mediator’s diplomacy, is what will decide how this settles.

“Iranian authorities seem ambitious and aggressive, and are looking to take risks to project power, which makes it less likely that any agreement will reach a final conclusion. That means interventions from mediators will keep coming.”

Guillem Balague, Spanish journalist:

Spain – the best team.

France – the best player and the most frightening attack.

Argentina – the best idea: doing more with less than anyone else.

England – two world-class players on form.

All four semi-finalists have what is needed to win the tournament.

If Spain take the ball off France and stop their counters – plus if they are more efficient than they have been – they have a very good chance of making it to the final.

But they have to play the perfect game, with the perfect (or a very good) Lamine Yamal.

Argentina will try to make the game against England uneventful, and then wait for a moment of brilliance from Lionel Messi or Julian Alvarez. But they have been playing with fire.

England are still trying to find their identity but they have a huge amount of personality and two world-class stars.

A final of Spain v England would be incredible. And in a way a win-win for me, but I would like England to win a World Cup soon. This could be the summer.

Spanish fans in the United States:

Lionel: France will be tough but I think we can beat them and, if we do, we have a strong chance. We are strong in attack and strong in defence. The only downside is Pedri hasn’t played at this top level yet.

Jack: Argentina are looking strong but England can’t be ruled out. They have Harry Kane, who is one of the most difficult strikers in the world.

Michel: Spain will win the tournament, I have no doubt. No one is giving us a chance against France but we will control the match and beat them. The winners of that game will win the tournament.

A US trade expert says the US, Mexico, and Canada need to hold trilateral talks to get a cross-border trade deal signed. Ex-lead US international trade negotiator Harry Broadman says the longer it takes Trump to get a trade deal with his neighbours, the weaker he looks to China.

France will not willingly surrender possession to Spain in their World Cup semifinal, coach Didier Deschamps said while confirming Kylian Mbappe’s full availability for the crucial fixture.

“Spain can apply a lot of pressure, but we are also a team who need the ball,” Deschamps told reporters on Monday. “There will be a battle for control.”

Spain have built their run to the last four around their ability to dominate the ball, press opponents deep into their own half and control the rhythm of matches.

France possess the pace to hurt them on the break, but Deschamps rejected the idea that his side would be content merely to defend and wait for transitions.

Midfielder Warren Zaire-Emery said France’s range of qualities gave them several ways to approach the contest.

“Spain have great quality on the ball,” he said. “We have the qualities to attack quickly on the counter, to keep possession ourselves and to defend well.

“The course of the game will dictate things. I cannot say now exactly how the match will unfold.”

Tchouameni available to play

France’s prospects of competing in the central areas have been strengthened by the return of Aurelien Tchouameni, who last played in the 3-0 round of 32 victory over Sweden on June 30.

He missed the 1-0 win in the last 16 versus Paraguay and the 2-0 quarterfinal victory over Morocco with a hamstring problem.

Deschamps said the 26-year-old Real Madrid midfielder had not yet fully recovered but was available for selection after being left out of the previous game as a precaution.

“For the last match, the risk was too high,” he said. “He is better today, although we cannot say he is 100% recovered.

“His last game was two weeks ago, but that is not prohibitive. The important thing is that he is available.”

Tchouameni’s presence would give France a natural holding midfielder capable of protecting the defence, competing physically and helping the team play through Spain’s pressure.

Mbappe skips part of France training, set to play against Spain

France captain Kylian Mbappe did not complete Monday’s final training session after suffering a minor ankle injury during Les Bleus’ quarterfinal win over Morocco.

Mbappe, who was substituted late in France’s 2-0 victory last Thursday, was partly rested during Monday’s session.

The injury is not expected to prevent him from playing on Tuesday.

“Kylian is fine,” Deschamps said.

Asked if Mbappe had trained, he added: “Yes, he trained. He is allowed to do 10 minutes in one drill instead of 15.”

Midfield configuration

Deschamps could also retain the midfield configuration that carried France past Morocco, with Manu Kone alongside Adrien Rabiot. Zaire-Emery provides another option in an area likely to determine whether Spain can impose their familiar rhythm.

Spain’s possession game is designed not only to create openings but also to exhaust opponents by shifting the ball repeatedly from one side to the other.

Full-back Jules Kounde said on Monday that France would need possession of their own to disrupt that pattern rather than allow Spain to settle into prolonged spells of control.

Deschamps believes France’s experience of recent major tournaments will help them manage those different phases, although he insisted past meetings with Spain offered no guarantee of how Tuesday’s match would develop.

Spain eliminated France in the Euro 2024 semifinals before beating them again in the Nations League last four in 2025.

“There are no particular lessons,” Deschamps said. “There was one truth in those matches, with the players who were present on both sides at that time.

“The players are different now, and they are not necessarily at the same level of form.

“Spain won those two matches, so congratulations to them, but what interests me is tomorrow’s game.”

Adaptation central to France consistency

The France coach said adaptation had been central to his side’s consistency, with Les Bleus now seeking to reach a third successive World Cup final.

“When you are a coach, the key word is adaptation,” explained Deschamps.

“Football is not an exact science, but preparation and planning are always important, right down to the smallest detail.”

France’s attacking threat has been led by Mbappe, the tournament’s top scorer.

However, the semifinal may hinge on whether Deschamps’ midfield can prevent Spain from monopolising the ball and still provide the forwards with enough service.

French President Emmanuel Macron says Ukraine is in line to get a license to produce Aster 30 missiles domestically. Aster 30 is the anti-air interceptor used in the SAMP/T surface-to-air missile system, examples of which are already in Ukrainian service. The Franco-Italian SAMP/T is often described as an analog to the U.S.-made Patriot, and both systems offer Ukraine vital anti-ballistic missile capability.

2018 – SAMP/T live firing by FASF in Le Levant

Ukraine is still in desperate need of additional capacity to shoot down incoming Russian ballistic missiles, especially amid shortages of missiles for its Patriots. Just last week, U.S. President Donald Trump also said he would approve a license for Ukraine to domestically produce Patriot interceptors. Significant questions remain about the exact timeline for when Ukraine might begin domestic production of munitions for either system, along with a host of other factors that will need to be addressed, as TWZ just explored in detail after Trump’s announcement regarding Patriot.

The French President spoke alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at a press conference at the Coalition of the Willing summit today in Paris. A total of 25 world leaders were in attendance. At this event, the governments of Ukraine, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom also announced the creation of an Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition. The coalition will pool resources to develop new anti-ballistic missile defense capabilities.

“Earlier this afternoon [Ukrainian] President Zelenskiy and I agreed ​on a roadmap between our two countries, implementing what ​had been agreed in principle last November regarding ⁠our bilateral defense cooperation,” Macron said at a press conference today, per a translation of his remarks from Reuters.

This is set to include the license production of Aster 30, as well as AASM Hammer-series precision-guided bombs and SCALP cruise missiles. France has already supplied tranches of all three of these munitions to Ukraine. It’s also worth noting that Ukrainian forces have also received Storm Shadow cruise missiles from the United Kingdom, which are nearly identical to SCALP.

Macron also highlighted planned deliveries of SAMP/T and SAMP/T NG surface-to-air missile systems to Ukrainian forces, which are set to start at least later this year. The SAMP/T NG is an upgraded version of the baseline SAMP/T type, and is designed to offer an expanded engagement envelope, both in terms of altitude and maximum range, primarily through the inclusion of new radars. The French and Italian versions of SAMP/T NG differ in the exact radar used (the French Thales GF 300 or the Kronos Grand Mobile HP from Italy’s Leonardo). Improved Aster 30 variants are also in development. Ukraine currently has two baseline SAMP/T systems, one from France and the other from Italy.

Eurosam SAMP/T systems with ASTER missiles

In addition, the French President talked about progress in Ukraine’s planned acquisition of French-made Rafale fighters, with the goal now being to deliver the first 16 of those aircraft in the 2028-2029 timeframe. You can read more about those plans, which were first announced last year, here.

The move by French authorities to allow Ukraine to produce Aster 30s domestically is particularly significant. Russian ballistic missiles, including ground-launched types and the air-launched Kinzhal, have and continue to present a threat that is especially difficult for Ukraine to manage. Ballistic missiles hurtle back to Earth at very high speeds in the terminal phase of flight, making them very challenging to intercept compared to other kinds of missiles, in general.

In recent years, Russia has also begun using ballistic missiles with enhanced maneuvering capabilities to make them even more difficult to knock down, even by more advanced air defense systems like Patriot. French Air Force Gen. Fabien Mandon, the chief of the French defense staff, claimed last year that SAMP/T was actually proving to be more effective than Patriot against Russian ballistic threats.

“We helped Ukraine by deploying missile and drone interception systems called the SAMP/T system,” Mandon said. “The Russians adapted the flight profiles of their most advanced missiles because they realized they were being intercepted by Ukrainian defenses. Today, the Patriot system is struggling to intercept them, but the SAMP/T is intercepting them.”

That being said, Ukraine still has more Patriot systems than SAMP/Ts, but both are in extremely high demand and short supply. The same goes for interceptors.

“Our warriors performed well today in intercepting drones and cruise missiles, but unfortunately not Russian ballistic missiles. And the reason is precisely the insufficient supplies of interceptor missiles,” Ukrainian President Zelensky wrote in a Ukrainian language post on X on July 6 after an especially heavy barrage on the capital Kyiv, according to a machine translation. “It is extremely important for the world, first and foremost America and our European partners, to emerge from the NATO summit in Ankara with strong decisions to support our air defense, and thus the protection of ordinary people’s lives. As long as missiles for ‘Patriots’ remain in the warehouses of allies, it only encourages Russia to continue ‘defeating’ residential buildings. The United States and Europe have enough power to stop this terror.”

Patriot and SAMP/T may offer important capabilities against other aerial threats, including Russia’s Zircon missile. Zircon is widely described as an air-breathing hypersonic cruise missile. However, the question has been raised recently about whether it might actually be a more traditional quasi-ballistic weapon.

At the same time, demand for higher-end surface-to-missile systems and anti-ballistic missile capability, and suitable interceptors, is growing across Europe and elsewhere globally. This is underscored by the announcement today of the new Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition. This, in turn, reflects a similar surge in the development and fielding of ballistic missiles around the world, including by smaller countries and even some non-state actors. The conflict with Iran this year, as well as fighting with Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen in recent years and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, have only further driven home the growing capabilities and proliferation of ballistic threats.

This reality applies even to the U.S. military, where the Marine Corps is now looking to acquire an organic ballistic missile defense capability to reduce reliance on the Army to provide this support. For years now, TWZ has been calling attention to how the Army’s Patriot force is heavily strained due to constant demands and is simply not adequately resourced to meet the current operational needs. That service is working to address those shortfalls, but it will take years for those efforts to come fully to fruition.

The PATRIOT Missile in Action

So, for Ukraine, having its own domestic pipeline for an interceptor like Aster 30 would offer an immensely valuable hedge against shortages and delays elsewhere. For this particular missile, demand extends beyond SAMP/T operators, which also currently include Singapore. Warships in service with the navies of France, Italy, the United Kingdom (where it is part of the Sea Viper air defense system), and several other countries are also equipped to fire these interceptors.

HMS Daring tests Sea Viper missile | Royal Navy

High demand for Patriot interceptors and full Patriot systems in Ukraine has already had negative downstream impacts on orders for other customers. Concerns have been raised about the sufficiency of U.S. military stockpiles as a result, something that has been further compounded by heavy U.S. and allied expenditures in recent fighting in the Middle East.

At the same time, there are still questions about how and when domestic production of Aster 30 or Patriot interceptors in Ukraine might begin, or when the first missiles might start being delivered. Higher-end anti-air missiles typically have production lead times measured in months, if not years. It will take some time for Ukraine just to finalize deals with the relevant defense contractors and establish a domestic production line. Where initial funding might come from is not entirely clear, either, though new financial aid from France and other countries could be a definite possibility. Ukraine might potentially be able to export some of the interceptors it produces, offering a badly needed economic boost for the country.

There is also an operational security question. Russia or other adversaries could gain valuable insights into the capabilities of SAMP/T or Patriot if they were to get their hands on full-up interceptors or even just critical subcomponents. There is already a certain danger taken in delivering more advanced missiles to a country at war. Even wreckage can be an intelligence gold mine for the enemy, depending on what is recoverable. Establishing a full domestic production line will require stockpiling of brand-new subsystems, as well as the sharing of at least some degree of intellectual property and manufacturing know-how. All of which increases the total number of potential risk vectors in a country that is, again, at war with its neighbor, which also happens to be a near-peer threat for the United States and others in the West.

Macron’s announcement about licensing Aster 30 production today does not address Ukraine’s critical immediate needs for more high-end interceptors to respond to incoming Russian ballistic missiles. At the same time, it does open up an important new path to keeping a steady supply of missiles for the Ukrainian military’s growing number of SAMP/T systems down the road. These are also capabilities Ukraine will need in the long-term, well beyond the current conflict, to help deter future aggression.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Caracas, July 13, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The Venezuelan government has approved a new set of oil industry regulations that prioritize the “economic and financial viability” of private sector investment.

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez signed the statute on Wednesday, July 8, and it was published in the National Gazette. Rodríguez hailed the directive a “historic step” that will “transform our energy reserves into development.”

“These norms establish clear rules, greater legal certainty, and a favorable environment for the cooperation between the [Venezuelan] state and national and foreign capital,” the acting president said.

Western oil executives and Trump officials have aggressively lobbied to tailor the new rules to their interests after seeing preliminary drafts. White House energy advisor Jarrod Agen stated that he had contact with Rodríguez and her team “multiple times a day” to offer input on the regulations and contract models.

The 122-article text establishes the framework for the implementation of the reformed Hydrocarbon Law approved by the Venezuelan National Assembly in late January. The legislative overhaul replaced the 2001 Hydrocarbon Law approved by former President Hugo Chávez and subsequent decrees that established a leading role for the Venezuelan state in the energy sector.

Under the new law, private sector companies can take over oilfield operations and sales as minority joint venture partners, or via concession-type agreements.

The legislation also slashed royalties and fiscal contributions. The former was capped at 30 percent, and a former extraction tax was replaced by an “integrated hydrocarbon tax” with a 15 percent maximum.

However, the new statute defines a “combined contribution” of royalties and the integrated tax ranging from 20 percent for undeveloped greenfields to 35 percent for currently active brownfields, meaning an effective 10 percent further reduction from the 45 percent maximum defined under the law.

Companies are eligible for additional 5 percent discounts in their combined contribution if they run offshore operations or if their business plans include “building or amplifying crude transformation, upgrading, or refining plants.”

Income tax was lowered from 50 to 34 percent for greenfields under the 2026 legislation. But the regulations establish that companies can request further reductions to their royalty, integrated tax, and income tax contributions if necessary to attain “economic equilibrium.” The decisions will be taken by the Venezuelan executive on a case-by-case basis without any mandatory oversight from the National Assembly.

The reformed energy law allowed legal disputes to be settled by international arbitration bodies, with Venezuelan officials promising  “legal certainty” to investors. The new norms permit arbitration re via “alternative mechanisms,” with analysts suggesting that the vague language aims to avoid any clashes with US sanctions.

The directive also set an obligation to capture “associated gas” in oil extraction operations, which can be used for reinjection or transformed into cooking gas. Historically, it has been mostly flared. Oilfield operators are likewise mandated to secure their electricity supply. The Venezuelan National Assembly is presently working on reforms to open electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization to the private sector.

The enacted framework goes on to establish environmental responsibilities, oversight mechanisms, and penalties for non-compliance. State oil company PDVSA is not mentioned at all in the text.

Venezuelan oil expert Blas Regnault told Venezuelanalysis that the new norms risk turning the oil sector into an “enclave.”

“The regulations organize oil activity but do not guarantee that it will be integrated into the national economy,” he explained. Regnault warned that empowering corporations to negotiate royalties on an individual case-by-case basis “turns a sovereign right into a flexible variable in a contractual regime” in what is an “unusual” practice for oil-producing nations.

“Royalties are not taxes. They represent the sovereign right of the owner of the resource, and thus should be universally established, not negotiated project by project,” he underscored.

The pro-business opening of Venezuela’s most important industry has seen major Western corporations, including Chevron, Shell, and BP, ink agreements or memoranda of understanding with the acting Rodríguez administration to develop new projects or establish more favorable conditions in existing ones.

For its part, the Trump administration has kept in place sanctions against the Venezuelan oil industry, though it has issued a number of licenses allowing US and Western enterprises to enter into agreements with Caracas. However, the waivers mandate that all royalty, tax, and dividend payments be deposited in a US Treasury-run account, while also blocking transactions with firms from China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.

The maintenance of US sanctions has slowed new investment, while the Trump administration has so far returned only a fraction of Venezuelan export revenues to Caracas. 

The dire economic situation is indexed in persistent inflation and stagnating oil production. Venezuela’s crude output plateaued after four consecutive months of growth, with June’s 1.070 million barrel-per-day (bpd) output virtually unchanged from May, according to OPEC secondary sources. The figure remains the highest since early 2019.

For its part, PDVSA reported 1.187 million bpd in June, up from 1,179 million bpd in May. Direct and secondary measurements have historically differed over disagreements on the inclusion of condensates and natural gas liquids.

The South American country’s main crude extraction areas, in the eastern and western regions, were largely unaffected by June 24’s double earthquake, with no major disruptions to operations reported.

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Caracas.t issued a number of licenses allowing US and Western enterprises to enter into agreements with Caracas. However, the waivers mandate that all royalty, tax, and dividend payments be deposited in a US Treasury-run account, while also blocking transactions with firms from China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.

Venezuela’s oil production has stagnated after four consecutive months of growth, with June’s 1.070 million barrel-per-day (bpd) output virtually unchanged from May, according to OPEC secondary sources. The figure remains the highest since early 2019.

For its part, PDVSA reported 1.187 million bpd in June, up from 1,179 million bpd in May. Direct and secondary measurements have historically differed over disagreements on the inclusion of condensates and natural gas liquids.

The South American country’s main crude extraction areas, in the eastern and western regions, were largely unaffected by June 24’s double earthquake, with no major disruptions to operations reported.

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Caracas.

Here’s TWZ’s weekly carrier tracker monitoring America’s flattop fleet, including deployed Carrier Strike Groups (CSG) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARG), using publicly available open-source information. Check out last week’s report here.

The U.S. blockade is back on beginning tomorrow. “We are reinstating the Iranian blockade,” President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social today after days of escalatory tit-for-tat exchanges between the U.S. and Iran while negotiations falter. Following the President’s announcement, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) released a statement with additional information, stating the blockade would begin on July 14 at 4:00pm eastern time. “CENTCOM forces will enforce the blockade against vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas. The U.S. military continues to support traffic flow through regional waters for all vessels not violating the blockade.” During the first blockade from April 13 to June 18, the Navy redirected more than 140 compliant commercial vessels and kinetically disabled nine that were non-compliant.

CENTCOM recently confirmed that more than 20 U.S. Navy ships are operating in the Middle East. On June 30, the majority of that force, including USS Abraham Lincoln, USS George H.W. Bush, and USS Tripoli, were pictured together in a photo exercise (PHOTOEX) and massive show of force with 16 other ships in the northern Arabian Sea. Two flights of 14 aircraft each from Carrier Air Wings (CVW) 7 and 9 conducted a flyover. Abraham Lincoln passed the 200 consecutive days at sea mark on the same day.

Thousands of miles away, the sea phase of the biennial exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2026 is underway. USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault ship USS Essex, and the other U.S. and international ships participating, steamed one by one out of Pearl Harbor last week. “The world’s largest international maritime exercise, RIMPAC provides a unique training opportunity while fostering and sustaining cooperative relationships among participants critical to ensuring the safety of sea lanes and security on the world’s oceans.” In the opening days, Roosevelt conducted flight operations with embarked Super Hornets and Hawkeyes, carried out general quarters drills, small boat operations, a refueling-at-sea evolution with USNS Guadalupe south of Oahu, and embarked partner navies including Philippines, South Korea, New Zealand, Poland, Germany, and more. During the large-scale exercise, which runs through the end of the month, the decommissioned Ticonderoga class cruiser ex-USS Mobile Bay and amphibious warship ex-USS Peleliu will be sunk by U.S. and partner forces.

Notably, medium displacement unmanned surface vehicle (MDUSV) Sea Hunter was spotted leaving Pearl Harbor on July 7 (albeit with a manned crew). Sea Hunter, made by Leidos, is the sister ship of Seahawk, which worked up with the Roosevelt CSG during COMPTUEX training in April. Both are actively training and it’s possible one could deploy with the CSG, which would mark the first hybrid manned-unmanned CSG, but these are older test assets that were not initially built for long deployments. Roosevelt sits at the leading edge of the Navy’s “tailored force pairing” concept, which could include integrating naval drones into CSG operations, but the MDUSV selected to deploy with the group has not been announced.

The nearly 3,000 Sailors aboard USS Nimitz arrived at Naval Station Norfolk on July 9, marking the completion of a four-month transit and homeport shift. Nimitz left Naval Base Kitsap-Bremerton, Washington, in March and circumnavigated South America, participated in Southern Seas and embarked officials from multiple countries, sailed in Fleet Exercise (FLEETEX) 250, and pulled into New York Harbor for the International Naval Review 250 and July 4 celebrations. “Nimitz will be permanently homeported in Naval Station Norfolk, training Naval Aviation’s next generation of warfighters, while standing ready to answer the Nation’s call as it has for the past 51 years.” Nimitz, back in Norfolk for the first time in nearly 40 years, was slated to be taken offline this year but her service life was extended before expected decommissioning in 2027.

USS Gerald R. Ford, which returned home in May following a historic 11-month deployment, entered Norfolk Naval Shipyard (NNSY) in advance of her Planned Incremental Availability (PIA). This is Ford’s first scheduled availability at a public shipyard and comes after a twice-extended combat deployment. “A PIA is a scheduled period for an aircraft carrier to undergo extensive maintenance, repairs and modernization to meet future operational demands, spanning a wide array of overhauls and inspections. Additionally, a concurrent availability will be conducted to restore spaces damaged during a fire aboard the then-deployed carrier in March 2026.” Ford’s arrival at NNSY follows the early PIA completions for Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in April 2026, and USS George H.W. Bush in November 2024, according to a statement by U.S. 2nd Fleet.

USS George Washington, America’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier, is conducting flight operations in the Philippine Sea. Washington carried out a replenishment-at-sea (RAS) evolution with USNS Earl Warren while underway in the Western Pacific on July 9, and recently participated in exercise Valiant Shield, teaming up with Japan, New Zealand, and Australia to sink a decommissioned amphibious warship. The ex-USS Juneau absorbed several hits from Washington’s air wing, including F-35Cs and F/A-18s, as well as long-range anti-ship missiles (LRASM) fired by U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers, and air and sea-launched effects shot by allied forces. “George Washington is the U.S. Navy’s premier forward-deployed aircraft carrier, a long-standing symbol of the United States’ commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific, while operating alongside allies and partners across the U.S. Navy’s largest numbered fleet.”

On the amphibious front, the Boxer ARG arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility (AOR) in early July. “Boxer is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the Middle East,” according to U.S. 5th Fleet. USS Tripoli, which has been the sole ARG in CENTCOM since March, participated in the PHOTOEX with the two carriers and has since moved farther east in the Indian Ocean, crossing into the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) AOR. Boxer may have relieved Tripoli, which has been there for more than four months, or Tripoli could be heading for a port call, emergent repairs, or, potentially, back home. Tripoli’s latest position via AIS and satellite imagery is unknown. Three additional amphibious assault ships have been operating and training around the United States: USS Kearsarge, USS Makin Island, and USS Essex. Two-thirds of the Iwo Jima ARG (less the flagship USS Iwo Jima), amphibious transport dock ships USS Fort Lauderdale and USS San Antonio, are back in the Caribbean and were recently docked pierside in La Guaira, Venezuela, to support the earthquake relief mission.

Overall, three U.S. carriers are deployed, three are training or in port in various states of readiness, four are in maintenance, and one is being used primarily for training. Two amphibious ready groups are deployed, four are working up or in port, and three are getting wrenched on.

Note: Positions are general approximations. Non-deployed LHA/LHD amphibious warships are not shown.

Contact the author: ian.ellis-jones@teamrecurrent.io

US is carrying out more attacks on Iran, with Iranian media reporting explosions in Kish Island, Jam Island, Qeshm Island, Bushehr and Bandar Abbas.

South Carolina governor chooses Darline Graham Nordone to serve the rest of the late US senator’s term until early 2027.

South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster has picked Darline Graham Nordone to succeed her late brother Lindsey Graham in the United States Senate after President Donald Trump backed her for the role.

The appointment on Monday ensures the seat is quickly filled to maintain the 53-senator Republican majority in the 100-member chamber. Nordone will serve the rest of Graham’s term, until January 3.

The interim senator, who leads the South Carolina Commission for the Blind, has no formal political experience. But she has appeared at campaign rallies and in political advertisements alongside her late brother, including when he ran for president in 2016.

On Monday, she suggested that her tenure would be a continuation of her brother’s work. The late senator was a staunch supporter of Israel and a vocal cheerleader of the US-Israel war on Iran.

“I promise to work hard over the next several months to support the president and carry forward the efforts of my brother on behalf of the citizens of South Carolina and the United States,” Nordone said.

She did not indicate whether she will run in the election for the full Senate term.

Republicans will hold primaries next month to replace Graham, who had won the party’s nomination earlier this year as he sought re-election. The Republican candidate will then face off with Democratic paediatrician Annie Andrews.

Earlier on Monday, Trump called on McMaster to appoint Nordone to fill the vacant Senate seat.

“I recommended, to Governor Henry McMaster, Lindsey Graham’s wonderful sister, Darline, to serve as interim Senator from the Great State of South Carolina,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“This would be a fabulous tribute to Lindsey, who loved her dearly!”

Graham had no wife or children. While running for president in 2016, he said Nordone would be part of his support network if he won.

“If she took a role on, she would be a great representative of our country,” Graham, who died on Saturday at age 71, said at that time.

“I can’t think of a better person to represent our country in an event than my sister.”

Nordone was a pre-teen when both of her parents died, and Graham, who was in his early 20s, helped raise her.

On Monday, McMaster heaped praise on the late senator as he announced the appointment, calling him “irresistible” and “irreplaceable”.

“Lindsey took care of his little sister in years long departed. It’s my honour to ask his little sister, Darline Graham, to finish his work for him now,” the governor said.

A crowd of more than 100,000, an open-top bus parade and a royal reception welcomed back the Norwegian World Cup squad.

More than ‌‌100,000 fans flooded the streets of the Norwegian ⁠⁠capital, Oslo, to give their football team a heroes’ welcome, turning the heartbreak of their FIFA World Cup exit ⁠⁠into a huge national celebration.

A 2-1 extra-time defeat by England on Saturday brought Norway’s historic run to an end in ⁠⁠the quarterfinals, shattering the Nordics’ dreams of a semifinal berth. However, it did not stop the country from celebrating its heroes.

Massive crowds under the Norwegian summer sun filled the grounds of the Royal ‌‌Palace early on Monday afternoon, with an unofficial turnout estimated at more than 100,000 people.

The Norway squad touched down to a traditional water cannon salute before commencing their homecoming parade in the capital.

The line of supporters quickly packed the palace square before stretching far down the main street, ⁠⁠Karl Johans gate, as the squad first ⁠⁠attended an audience with King Harald.

The team then stepped out to greet the fans, with the Royal Guard standing at attention behind them.

Striker Erling Haaland was ⁠⁠noticeably absent from the final stage of the celebrations, having left early.

His departure meant ⁠⁠he missed joining his teammates on the ⁠⁠palace steps for one last “Viking row” with the tens of thousands of fans gathered below, which was led by Crown Prince Haakon on the drums.

“Erling ‌‌and Sander [Berge] had to catch their plane as our trip from the US was delayed four hours,” coach Stale Solbakken said, ‌‌as ‌‌the squad prepared to continue the celebrations in an open bus parade around Oslo.