TODAY

A new supreme leader in Iran – Mojtaba Khamenei – has replaced his assassinated father.

His selection sends a defiant message to the United States and Israel as they attack the country.

So, who is Iran’s new leader – and what does his appointment mean?

Presenter: Tom McRae

Guests:

Hassan Ahmadian – Associate professor at the University of Tehran

Mehran Kamrava – Professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and director of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies

Alex Vatanka – Senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says children, the elderly at particular risk after damage to Iranian petroleum facilities.

The head of the World Health Organization has warned that recent Israeli attacks on oil facilities in Iran could have negative effects on public health, with Iranian children and the elderly among the most vulnerable.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement on Monday that damage to Iranian petroleum facilities “risks contaminating food, water and air”.

Those hazards “can have severe health impacts especially on children, older people, and people with pre existing medical conditions”, Tedros warned in a post on X. “Rain laden with oil has been reported falling in parts of the country.”

The Iranian authorities said oil facilities in the capital, Tehran, and the nearby province of Alborz were targeted on Saturday in the United States-Israeli war against the country, the Fars news agency reported.

Israel said it struck “a number of fuel storage facilities in Tehran” that were used “to operate military infrastructure”.

The strikes sent massive flames and clouds of thick, black smoke into the sky above Tehran, with Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi reporting that black raindrops fell early on Sunday morning.

The attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure came as the US and Israeli governments had vowed to continue to bombard the country despite mounting international concern over the widening conflict.

Iran has retaliated to the US-Israeli strikes by launching missiles and drones at targets across the Middle East, including energy infrastructure in nearby Arab Gulf states.

Human rights groups have condemned both Iran and the US and Israel for targeting civilian infrastructure.

Agnes Callamard, the head of Amnesty International, said on Monday that “Israel should have taken all feasible precautions to avoid or minimize the risks to civilians when targeting oil refineries” in Iran.

“The incidental harm to civilians, including the release of toxic substance, appears to indicate that too little precautions were taken and that the incidental harm to civilians is disproportionate,” she wrote on X.

“The scenes of catastrophe described by Iranians after Tehran’s oil depots were bombed are yet another demonstration that ultimately, whatever they may say, the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran are harming first and foremost civilians, including children.”

French President Emmanuel Macron has said France and its allies are preparing a “purely defensive” mission to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz once the “most intense phase” of the US-Israeli war on Iran ends.

Speaking in Cyprus on Monday, Macron said the “purely escort mission” must be prepared by both European and non-European countries.

Its purpose “is to enable, as soon as possible after the most intense phase of the conflict has ended, the escort of container ships and tankers to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz”, the French president said, without providing further details.

Macron’s comments come as global oil prices have surged amid continued attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran, as well as retaliatory Iranian missile and drone strikes across the wider region.

The war has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic Gulf waterway through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass, while Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East also have raised concerns.

Responding to Macron’s comments, top Iranian security official Ali Larijani said, “It is unlikely that any security will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the fires of the war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region.”

Larijani added in a social media post that security is also unlikely to be restored as a result of plans designed by “parties that were not far removed from supporting this war and contributing to its fanning”.

While European countries have been largely sidelined as the war escalates, several – including France, the United Kingdom and Greece – have sent military assets to Cyprus following an Iranian-made drone attack on a British base on the island.

Greece has dispatched four F-16 fighter planes to the Paphos airbase and its two state-of-the-art frigates Kimon and Psara are patrolling offshore Cyprus, tasked with intercepting any missiles or drones.

Last week, Macron ordered the French frigate Languedoc to waters off Cyprus to bolster the country’s anti-drone and anti-missile defences.

“When Cyprus is attacked, then Europe is attacked,” Macron said after meeting with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Paphos on Monday.

The French president said he would also deploy a total of eight warships, two helicopter carriers and the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Eastern Mediterranean and the wider Middle East region, calling the move “unprecedented”.

France’s objective “is to maintain a strictly defensive stance, standing alongside all countries attacked by Iran in its retaliation, to ensure our credibility, and to contribute to regional de-escalation”, Macron said.

“Ultimately, we aim to guarantee freedom of navigation and maritime security.”

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sending oil prices soaring, finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) countries met in Brussels on Monday to discuss how to respond.

Crude oil prices have increased by about 50 percent since the US and Israel launched the war last month, with international benchmark Brent crude prices surpassing $100 a barrel on Monday.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told reporters that the G7 ministers did not make a decision on the potential release of emergency oil stocks amid the war. “What we’ve agreed upon is to use any necessary tools if need be to stabilise the market, including the potential release of necessary stockpiles,” Lescure said.

Paul Hickin, editor-in-chief and chief economist at Petroleum Economist, said getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened is the main priority. “That’s not going to happen in any shape or form until there’s a resolution to the conflict,” Hickin told Al Jazeera.

He explained that several countries in the Middle East, such as Kuwait and Iraq, are dependent on the strait to get their energy supplies to market.

“Kuwait and Iraq and those producers, they are really having a shut-in, and it will take a little bit of time to get back up and running,” said Hickin.

“That is the big risk, the knock-on effect … Getting those ships back, getting that infrastructure back up and running, it’s a slow process. So prices won’t come back down as quickly as many may think.”

Ministry of National Defence says no casualties or damage after missile shot down over southern city of Gaziantep.

The Turkish Ministry of National Defence says NATO air defences have intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Iran towards Turkiye as concerns grow that the United States-Israel war against Iran will escalate.

The missile was intercepted on Monday over the Sahinbey district of Gaziantep in southern Turkiye, the ministry said in a statement. No casualties or damage were reported.

“Ankara emphasized its capability and determination to protect national airspace and border security, while warning that further escalation in the region must be avoided,” the statement said.

The ministry also urged all sides, especially Tehran, “to refrain from actions that could endanger civilians or undermine regional stability”.

Monday’s incident was the second time an Iranian ballistic missile was fired towards Turkiye since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, according to local authorities.

The US-Israeli attacks have prompted a wave of Iranian missile and drone strikes across the wider region, including on targets in Arab Gulf countries.

Iran did not immediately comment on the Turkish ministry’s statement.

NATO spokesperson Allison Hart confirmed that the military alliance had intercepted “a missile heading to Turkiye”. “NATO stands firm in its readiness to defend all Allies against any threat,” Hart said in a post on X.

Iran denied firing a ballistic missile towards Turkiye on Wednesday after Turkish authorities said NATO air defences shot down a projectile over the Eastern Mediterranean.

NATO condemned that launch, expressing its “full solidarity” with Turkiye.

“This is a tangible demonstration of the Alliance’s ability to defend our populations against all threats, including those posed by ballistic missiles,” NATO said of the interception.

Article 5 of the alliance’s North Atlantic Treaty says an attack on one NATO country will be considered an attack on all. It also commits each NATO member state to taking action deemed necessary “to restore and maintain” security.

In an interview with the Reuters news agency last week after the first ballistic missile heading towards Turkiye was shot down, NATO chief Mark Rutte said there was no talk of invoking Article 5.

Iranian authorities have said they are firing at US military bases and other US- and Israel-linked targets across the region in self-defence, but civilian infrastructure has also been attacked.

“Iran’s targets are not just US bases; they are, in fact, primarily large-scale infrastructure and civilian targets as well,” said Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in defence studies at King’s College London.

“This is not a mistake. This is by design,” Pinfold told Al Jazeera, explaining that Tehran is seeking to “unleash as much chaos as possible to destabilise the region and global markets” in an effort to force Washington to abandon the war.

“We’ve seen that Iran is targeting every single [Gulf Cooperation Council] state. It’s prepared to burn its bridges with all of them to pursue this very uncertain and high-risk strategy,” he said.

“It really shows you how Iran feels like it’s facing an existential threat. For them, this is a real do-or-die moment.”

Palestinian journalist Amal Shamali, who worked as a correspondent for Qatar Radio, has been killed in an Israeli air strike on the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, the Palestinian Journalists Syndicate (PJS) says.

Shamali, who was killed on Monday, also “worked with several Arab and local media outlets and was among the journalists who continued performing their media mission despite the ongoing assault and war on the Gaza Strip”, the PJS said in a statement.

More than 270 journalists and media workers have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched a genocidal war against Palestinians in the territory on October 7, 2023, in response to Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel.

“This represents one of the bloodiest periods for journalists in modern history, reflecting the scale of the deliberate targeting of Palestinian journalism in an attempt to silence the voice of truth and prevent the documentation of the crimes and violations committed against the Palestinian people,” the PJS said.

The PJS also said: “Targeting journalists will not succeed in breaking the will of the Palestinian journalistic community or deterring it from fulfilling its professional and humanitarian mission of conveying the truth and documenting the crimes and aggression faced by the Palestinian people.”

Gaza’s Government Media Office released a statement after Shamali’s killing, saying it “strongly condemns the systematic targeting, killing, and assassination of Palestinian journalists by the Israeli occupation”.

The office also said it “holds the Israeli occupation, the U.S. administration, and the countries participating in the crime of genocide – such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and France – fully responsible for committing these heinous and brutal crimes”.

It called on international and regional media associations, the international community and human rights organisations to condemn “the crimes” committed against Palestinian journalists and media professionals working in Gaza and to work towards holding Israel accountable for its “ongoing crimes” against Palestinian journalists.

Israeli attacks have killed about 13 journalists every month over more than two years of war, according to a tally by Shireen.ps, a monitoring website named after Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, who was shot and killed by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank in 2022.

Of those journalists, at least 10 of them worked for Al Jazeera, including Al Jazeera Arabic correspondent Anas al-Sharif, who had reported extensively from northern Gaza.

Israel’s war on Gaza has been the single deadliest conflict for journalists.

According to Brown University’s Costs of War project, more journalists have been killed in Gaza since the war began on October 7, 2023, than in the US Civil War, World Wars I and II, the Korean War, Vietnam War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia and the post-9/11 war in Afghanistan – combined.

As per a report released early this year by the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ), Palestine was the deadliest place to work as a journalist in 2025.

The IFJ said the Middle East was the most dangerous region for media professionals, accounting for 74 deaths last year – more than half of the 128 journalists and media workers killed.

The Middle East was followed by Africa with 18 deaths, the Asia Pacific (15), the Americas (11) and Europe (10), according to the report.

Since a US- and Qatar-brokered “ceasefire” came into effect in October, 640 Palestinians have been killed and at least 1,700 wounded, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health. At least 72,123 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023 while 171,805 people have been injured. At least 1,139 people were killed in the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Hezbollah reported on Monday that its fighters engaged Israeli troops in eastern Lebanon during an overnight airborne raid, marking the second such operation in the area in recent days. The conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed group has drawn Lebanon deeper into the regional war, which began after Hezbollah opened fire to avenge the killing of Iran’s former supreme leader.

The Israeli military has not immediately commented on the latest Hezbollah claim. In previous operations, the military carried out airstrikes across Hezbollah-controlled southern Beirut, including targeting financial institutions like Al-Qard Al-Hassan. Lebanese authorities report nearly 400 people have been killed in the country since March 2, including 83 children and 42 women, though the toll does not distinguish combatants from civilians. Israel confirmed two soldier deaths in southern Lebanon—the first Israeli military casualties since the outbreak of hostilities.

Expanding Operations

Hezbollah stated that around 15 Israeli helicopters flew over eastern Lebanon after midnight, deploying troops observed approaching Lebanese territory from Syria. The region, the Bekaa Valley, is a stronghold of Hezbollah’s political and security apparatus. This follows a similar Israeli raid near Nabi Chit on March 2–3, which Lebanese officials said killed 41 people. Israel described that previous operation as an attempt to recover the remains of Ron Arad, a navigator missing since 1986.

Civilian Displacement and Urban Strikes

The war has prompted mass displacement, with hundreds of thousands fleeing southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh. Israeli strikes have also hit locations outside Hezbollah strongholds. On Sunday, a drone strike in Beirut’s Rouche seafront district reportedly killed five senior commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, illustrating the widening geographic and operational scope of the conflict.

Strategic Posturing

Israel has reinforced its military presence in southern Lebanon, establishing forward defensive positions in anticipation of potential Hezbollah attacks into Israel. The military maintains troops at five positions in the region, a posture originating from the 2024 war with Hezbollah.

Analysis: Escalation Risks

The repeated incursions and airstrikes signal a deepening and increasingly unpredictable phase of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Hezbollah’s engagement of Israeli forces in eastern Lebanon demonstrates its capacity to operate beyond the southern front, potentially broadening the battlefield.

For Israel, the operations appear aimed at both tactical objectives such as neutralizing high-value targets—and broader deterrence, signaling its intent to strike Hezbollah assets and Iranian-linked operatives throughout Lebanon. For Lebanese civilians, however, the widening conflict exacerbates humanitarian pressures, including casualties, mass displacement, and infrastructure destruction.

The situation underscores the risk of further regional escalation, with Syria and Iran-linked actors already drawn into the conflict, raising the possibility of a protracted war with extensive human and geopolitical costs.

With information from Reuters.

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has sent oil prices soaring, rattling global financial markets and prompting governments to implement urgent measures to protect their economies and citizens from energy shortages and rising costs. As the war disrupts critical supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, countries heavily reliant on oil imports are scrambling to stabilize domestic fuel supplies and mitigate inflationary pressures.

South Korea Caps Fuel Prices

In a historic move, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced that the government would cap domestic fuel prices for the first time in nearly 30 years. Authorities are also seeking alternative energy sources beyond shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. To support the measure, a 100 trillion won ($67 billion) market-stabilization program may be expanded if necessary, reflecting the severity of the supply shock.

Japan Prepares Strategic Oil Reserves

Japan has instructed a national oil reserve storage facility to prepare for a possible release of crude oil, according to opposition party lawmaker Akira Nagatsuma. While precise details and timing remain unclear, this measure underscores Japan’s reliance on strategic reserves to manage sudden spikes in global energy prices.

Vietnam Removes Fuel Import Tariffs

Vietnam is temporarily eliminating import tariffs on fuels to ensure continued domestic supply amidst global disruptions. The government expects this measure to remain in effect until the end of April, aiming to reduce cost pressures on both businesses and consumers.

Indonesia Boosts Fuel Subsidies and Biodiesel Plans

Indonesia is increasing budget allocations for fuel subsidies, currently totaling 381.3 trillion rupiah ($22.5 billion), to offset rising energy costs and maintain affordable electricity and fuel prices. The government may also revive plans to expand the B50 biodiesel program, blending 50% palm oil-based biodiesel with conventional diesel, as a longer-term strategy to reduce dependency on imported oil.

China Halts Fuel Exports

China has directed refiners to suspend new fuel export contracts and attempt to cancel previously committed shipments. This policy excludes jet fuel for international flights, bonded bunkering, and supplies to Hong Kong or Macau. The move is designed to secure domestic fuel availability amid soaring global prices.

Bangladesh Closes Universities and Rations Fuel

Bangladesh, which depends on imports for 95% of its energy, has implemented emergency measures including university closures and rationing fuel sales to conserve electricity and fuel. Daily fuel sale limits were imposed after panic buying and stockpiling, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to regional energy disruptions.

Analysis: A Coordinated Global Response

These measures illustrate the unprecedented economic ripple effects of the Middle East conflict. Countries with high import dependency are balancing immediate crisis management such as subsidies, price caps, and rationing with longer-term energy strategies, including strategic reserve releases and alternative fuel initiatives.

The rapid policy responses also underscore the fragility of global energy markets in the face of geopolitical conflicts. Central banks and governments must navigate a complex trade-off: containing inflation while ensuring sufficient energy supply to prevent industrial slowdowns and social unrest.

As the conflict persists, global energy markets remain highly volatile, and governments may need to continue adjusting policy tools to stabilize domestic economies, with potential implications for trade, inflation, and energy security worldwide.

With information from Reuters.

Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader following the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, in strikes on the first day of the current war. The move signals that Iran’s ruling establishment intends to maintain its hardline course despite the dramatic loss of the country’s most powerful figure.

Mojtaba Khamenei, a 56-year-old Shi’ite cleric with strong connections to Iran’s security apparatus, was quickly endorsed by political leaders, military bodies and religious institutions. Public ceremonies and declarations of loyalty were organised across the country, reflecting a rapid effort by the political system to demonstrate continuity and stability at a moment of intense external pressure.

The appointment is widely seen as closing off any near-term possibility of a negotiated end to the conflict that has engulfed the region. With a figure closely aligned with Iran’s powerful security institutions now leading the state, analysts expect Tehran to maintain a confrontational stance rather than seek quick concessions.

Consolidation of power within the system

Iran’s political and military leadership rallied quickly behind the new leader. Statements from the defence establishment pledged unwavering loyalty to Mojtaba Khamenei, describing him as commander-in-chief and promising to follow him “until the last drop of our blood.”

The swift consolidation of authority highlights the enduring strength of the Islamic Republic’s institutional framework. The supreme leader sits at the top of Iran’s political hierarchy, exercising ultimate control over the military, judiciary and key elements of the state.

Supporters of the government described the succession as a demonstration that the system could withstand even the killing of its long-serving leader. Some Iranians interviewed by media outlets expressed pride and relief that the leadership transition had occurred quickly during wartime, viewing it as a sign of national resilience.

Others, however, reacted with disappointment or anxiety. Many critics of the government had hoped that the death of the elder Khamenei might open the door to political change. Instead, the elevation of his son long considered close to the security establishment suggests continuity rather than reform.

Divided reactions inside Iran

Public reactions within Iran have reflected the country’s deep political divisions. Supporters of the authorities praised Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as a defiant response to foreign pressure and an affirmation that the Islamic Republic remains intact.

Critics, however, say the change offers little hope for political liberalisation. Many opposition figures and activists have remained quiet, in part because of fears of repression during wartime. The government recently suppressed widespread protests, and security forces maintain a strong presence across major cities.

Observers note that Iran’s powerful security institutions including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retain extensive resources and influence. The Guard and associated networks also control major sectors of the economy, reinforcing the system’s ability to maintain power even during crises.

International pressure and escalating conflict

The leadership change comes amid escalating hostilities involving Israel and the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender and has suggested Washington should have influence over the selection of Iran’s supreme leader.

Trump has previously warned that any successor to Ali Khamenei could face the same fate if Iran continued what he described as hostile policies. Israeli officials have also indicated that senior Iranian leaders could remain targets unless Tehran abandons its military programmes and regional alliances.

Israel’s stated war aims include dismantling Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities, and some officials have also spoken of ending the country’s clerical system of rule. Washington’s position initially focused on military capabilities but has hardened during the conflict.

Meanwhile, Israeli operations have expanded across the region, including strikes in Beirut and other areas linked to Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah. Fighting and airstrikes have resulted in significant casualties in Iran, Lebanon and Israel.

Energy shock and global economic impact

The war has triggered one of the most severe energy disruptions in decades. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway near Iran’s coast through which roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass, has been effectively halted.

With tankers unable to move for more than a week, producers have faced storage shortages and in some cases have been forced to halt pumping. The supply shock sent Brent crude prices surging sharply, briefly approaching $120 per barrel before settling above $100.

The surge has rattled financial markets worldwide, pushing stock indexes in Asia and Europe sharply lower and raising fears of inflationary pressure in major economies. Rising fuel costs also carry political implications in the United States, where gasoline prices are closely watched by voters ahead of upcoming elections.

Regional fighting intensifies

Military operations have continued across multiple fronts. Israeli forces have struck targets in central Iran and carried out attacks on infrastructure, including an oil refinery that sent thick black smoke rising over the capital, Tehran.

At the same time, Iranian-aligned forces have launched attacks elsewhere in the region. A refinery in Bahrain was damaged in a strike that forced the national oil company to declare force majeure, further highlighting the widening scope of the conflict.

Casualties have mounted rapidly. Iranian officials say more than 1,300 civilians have been killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes, while deaths have also been reported in Lebanon and Israel. Israeli authorities confirmed fatalities from Iranian missile attacks, and several soldiers have been killed in fighting along the Lebanese border.

Iran’s system of rule

The role of supreme leader was created following the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which established the Islamic Republic under clerical leadership. The position combines religious authority with ultimate political power.

Ali Khamenei held the office for more than three decades, shaping Iran’s foreign policy and domestic governance during periods of sanctions, regional conflict and diplomatic negotiations with world powers. His death in wartime marked one of the most dramatic moments in the country’s modern political history.

Mojtaba Khamenei has long been viewed as an influential figure behind the scenes, particularly within security institutions. Though less publicly prominent than other clerics, he has been widely considered close to the Revolutionary Guard and to key power brokers within the political establishment.

Analysis: Hardline continuity and a longer war

The rapid elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei suggests that Iran’s ruling system is prioritising continuity and cohesion over reform or compromise. By choosing a figure closely aligned with the security establishment, the leadership appears determined to project strength during wartime.

This choice reduces the likelihood of immediate diplomatic concessions that might have opened a path to de-escalation. A leader closely tied to Iran’s military institutions is more likely to emphasise resistance and national defence rather than negotiation under pressure.

At the same time, the succession demonstrates the resilience of Iran’s political structure. Despite the loss of its long-time leader and ongoing military attacks, the state apparatus has moved quickly to stabilise authority and present a unified front.

For the wider region and the global economy, the implications are significant. If Iran continues to pursue a confrontational strategy under its new leader, the conflict could become prolonged, keeping energy markets volatile and increasing the risk of further escalation across the Middle East.

With information from Reuters.

When Catherine Bello received a text message from the World Food Programme (WFP) in August 2025, she was excited. She had been anticipating it ever since she applied for the Anticipatory Action Response (AAR), a WFP programme that provides “multipurpose cash assistance” to reduce the humanitarian impact of flooding in vulnerable communities. 

Catherine lives in the Jimeta-Yola metropolis, an area in Adamawa State, northeastern Nigeria, that has experienced repeated flooding. A mother of four, she is a retired public-school teacher who now sells kunun zaki (Hausa for corn juice) to make ends meet. 

She had hoped that the ₦208,184 AAR support would help her expand her business and save more to support her family. 

However, that excitement faded when she arrived in Yola for data capture.

Officials asked Catherine to provide her National Identification Number (NIN) for verification. To her shock, the system flagged a mismatch. The name on the beneficiary list appeared as “Bello O. Catherine”, while her NIN record read “Catherine Bello”.

“It was the same NIN I gave them while filling the form,” she says. “They told me the name they saw didn’t match, so I couldn’t be captured.” 

A missing middle-name initial was enough to exclude her from receiving assistance. Instead, she was advised to reconcile her records with the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC).

Across Nigeria, thousands of people, like Catherine, are locked out of essential services because of missing initials, misspelt names, and minor inconsistencies that trigger verification failures.

Nigeria’s digital identity system was built to include and connect millions of citizens to welfare, banking, education, and other opportunities. But for a growing number of Nigerians, the same system is becoming a barrier to accessing those services.

Identity as the backbone 

Nigeria’s emerging digital public infrastructure (DPI) rests on three foundational pillars: digital identity (NIN); digital payments and financial inclusion (Bank Verification Number (BVN) and the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS)); data exchange; and verification infrastructure. 

At the centre of this system is the NIN, managed by NIMC. By late 2025, Nigeria had issued about 127 million NINs, roughly 60 per cent of the population, but millions remain unregistered or mismatched. Under the World Bank–supported Identification for Development programme, Nigeria aims to scale capacity to 250 million records and reach 85 per cent population coverage by 2027.

Digital identity is no longer optional. It is now increasingly required for SIM card registration, bank account linkage (NIN–BVN integration), social protection enrolment, scholarship applications, and access to tax and government services.

In theory, this integration promises efficiency, transparency, and inclusion. In practice, data inconsistencies, limited interoperability, and infrastructure gaps expose citizens to the risk of exclusion.

Experts warn that when people lack a valid digital ID, they can literally be locked out of basic services. Dennis Amachree, a national security analyst and former Assistant Director at the Department of State Security, notes that the rural-urban divide and the lack of enrolment infrastructure leave many, especially the elderly and rural populations, without the documentation they need to fully participate in banking, travel, and government services. 

Meanwhile, the World Bank notes that Nigeria still has “a considerable gap” in identity coverage, especially among women, persons with disabilities, and other vulnerable groups. The global financial body observed that the lack of any recognised ID “prevents individuals from accessing critical government services, participating in the digital economy, and financial inclusion”. 

For instance, Catherine’s hope of benefiting from the welfare package was dashed; a tiny database error translated into lost hopes.

SIM-NIN linkage – Security births exclusion

Alpha Daniel, a trader in Jimeta Modern Market, faced a different but related problem.

In 2024, the Nigerian Communications Commission, the country’s telecom regulator, demanded that all mobile phones be linked to NIN or risk being shut off. In September of the same year, millions of Nigerians woke up to find their SIM cards blocked. Alpha was one of them. 

“I did everything right,” he says. “I went to the MTN shop, gave them my NIN, but after two tries, my line was still blocked.”

This was a familiar pattern. By mid-2024, telecoms reported that 13.5 million lines were barred for NIN non-compliance (8.6 million on MTN, 4.8 million on Airtel). By August 2024, Nigeria had linked 153 million SIMs to NIN (96 per cent of active lines). But that last 4 per cent represented some 6–7 million SIM connections that could no longer send or receive calls. Many complained that even after they finally registered or re-registered, their lines remained locked. 

As one subscriber with Airtel put it, “Painfully, I have done this linkage at least twice, but still the line was barred”. 

The government’s goal was to reduce phone-based fraud and make the digital economy safer, but for many Nigerians, losing a phone line means losing opportunities and even contact with relatives.

Ruth James, a graduate of Modibbo Adama University, Yola, had a scholarship application derailed when Nigeria’s ID system struck again. In early 2024, Ruth logged onto the Petroleum Technology Development Trust Fund (PTDF) scholarship portal and entered her details. The portal displayed a “NIN validation failed” message and locked her out. 

“I filled out the form perfectly,” she says. “Then it said my NIN verification failed. I kept trying different browsers, but nothing worked. There was a help icon for failed verification on the portal. I clicked and sent several emails, but there was no response.” In the end, Ruth missed the deadline and lost a chance at much-needed financial aid.

Many federal programmes, from scholarship funds to youth training schemes, now require NIN verification. Online forums are filled with frustrated applicants: Jobs Inform noted dozens of “Not eligible” errors from a NIN mismatch or “verification failed” during registration. 

These stories show how minor technical issues in Nigeria’s ID system can translate to a lack of access to education, banking, and social support, all of which are increasingly tied to digital identity. 

Government policies and infrastructure gaps

The Nigerian government is aware of these issues. In 2024 and 2025, it rolled out several projects to strengthen Nigeria’s DPI, the foundational systems that underpin services. For example, the revised National Digital Identity Policy for SIM Card Registration explicitly ties SIM-NIN linkage to curb fraud. 

The authorities also launched a NINAuth smartphone app in late 2025, which President Bola Tinubu hailed as “a milestone in our nation’s digital public infrastructure journey”. Tinubu has repeatedly emphasised that a “credible and inclusive National Identity Management System is fundamental to our national development goals”. In practice, the NINAuth app is meant to simplify identity checks for banks, hospitals, and government agencies, thereby reducing the need to manually look up each person’s NIN. However, the platform has not seen widespread adoption.

On the data side, Nigeria enacted a new Data Protection Act in June 2023, replacing the previous regulation. The new law imposes stricter rules (including special protections for children and a “duty of care” on data controllers). It was also a condition for the World Bank–supported Digital ID4D project. 

These efforts are already yielding results: linking NIN with financial systems (NIN/BVN linkage) coincided with a jump in financial inclusion from 56 per cent in 2020 to 65 per cent by 2023. However, digital experts note that Nigeria’s DPI remains fragmented. Many government platforms and private services do not fully share data, forcing citizens to repeatedly verify their identity. Network outages and limited registration centres (especially in rural areas) still slow down NIN enrollment. 

Worse, some Nigerians distrust the system after reports of lax data security. Khadijah El-Usman, a Senior Programme Officer for Anglophone West Africa at Paradigm Initiative, a digital rights group, warn that “the NIMC’s role is to secure this data. They have failed to do so”, referring to recent incidents where NIN data were allegedly sold on private websites.

Turning challenges into opportunities

Experts in digital governance say Nigeria must turn these challenges into opportunities for reform. Vincent Olatunji, National Commissioner and CEO of the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC), stresses that effective identity management must be built on harmonised policies, secure technologies, and inclusive systems to strengthen national digital trust. “Effective identity management requires harmonised policies, secure technologies, and inclusive systems,” he noted, linking strong governance with citizens’ confidence in digital IDs. 

Likewise, Iremise Fidel-Anyanna, Head of Application Security, Governance, and Security Operations at the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), warns that “data privacy is the foundation of digital trust,” noting that privacy and security are essential to citizens’ willingness and ability to participate in digital services. 

Chy Ameh, a digital identity expert based in Abuja, stresses the need for stronger privacy and trust protections, arguing that “to ensure the privacy and security of individual personal information, implement robust data protection measures such as strong encryption, secure authentication, consent and control over personal data, compliance with regulations, and regular audits” to distribute responsibility between both government and private actors.

Several other experts also highlight infrastructure bottlenecks and low public awareness: “Network glitches, poor connectivity, and limited registration centres impede effective ID rollout,” they note. In addressing this, experts urge large-scale outreach and education programmes to help people understand how and why to register for a NIN.

In simple terms, these experts say Nigeria needs to make digital ID registration easier by opening more NIMC centres in underserved areas and reducing unnecessary bureaucracy. There should also be clear public information campaigns, in local languages, to explain what the NIN is and why it matters. To build trust, the government must fully enforce data protection laws and ensure people’s personal information is safe.

Finally, better coordination among the government, banks, and telecom companies is needed so that systems work together smoothly and people do not have to repeat the same processes.

Best practices and cautionary tales

Globally, there are lessons for Nigeria. India’s Aadhaar programme, the world’s largest biometric ID system, now covers about 95 per cent of India’s population. Aadhaar made government transfers and SIM registration much smoother, but not without controversy; it has faced numerous legal challenges over data privacy and mandatory linking. Nigeria can learn from India’s experience by building strong privacy safeguards before demanding universal linkage.

In Kenya, the Huduma Namba initiative aimed to create a single ID for all services, but was suspended by the courts in 2020. Privacy advocates there won a ruling saying that collecting biometric data (even GPS or DNA) without adequate legal protection was unconstitutional. Kenya’s case shows that inclusion programmes can backfire if citizens fear their data will be mishandled. Nigeria’s reforms, such as the new Data Protection Act and the planned changes to the NIMC Act, seem aimed at avoiding such mistakes.

In Estonia, nearly 100 per cent of adults have a government-issued electronic ID card, and all state services are accessible online. This allows citizens to vote, pay taxes, and use healthcare portals seamlessly. Achieving this took decades of investment in both technology and public trust. For Nigeria, such a level of integration is a distant goal, but it shows what’s possible if the digital ID becomes reliable and user-friendly.

Bridging the divide

Catherine, Alpha, and Ruth all share a sense of being stranded by a system that was supposed to help them. Their stories reveal that digital infrastructure failures can be as damaging as physical ones. As President Tinubu himself put it, Nigeria must “eliminate unnecessary bottlenecks and ensure that every Nigerian has access to essential services without the frustration of bureaucratic delays”.

To avoid leaving people like Catherine on the sidelines, experts say the government needs to act on multiple fronts: fix the glitches, protect people’s data, and make the system easy to use. Only then can Nigeria’s grand digital ID ambitions translate into real help for its people.

This report is produced under the DPI Africa Journalism Fellowship Programme of the Media Foundation for West Africa and Co-Develop.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukrainian drone experts will arrive in the Middle East this week to help Gulf states under attack from Iran.

In recent days, Iran has fired a number of Shahed drones across the Middle East – and some air defences in the region have struggled to cope.

Ukraine has spent the last four years inventing cheap but effective ways of defending their skies from similar Russian strikes, and now some countries have come knocking on their door to ask for help.

The BBC’s Diplomatic Correspondent, James Landale, is in Ukraine and has been to see the latest anti-drone technology the country has to offer.

In 1948, as the foundations of the Israeli state were being laid upon the ruins of hundreds of Palestinian villages, Albert Einstein wrote a letter to the American Friends of the Fighters for the Freedom of Israel (AFFFI), condemning the growing Zionist militancy within the settler Jewish community. “When a real and final catastrophe should befall us in Palestine the first responsible for it would be the British and the second responsible for it the terrorist organisations built up from our own ranks. I am not willing to see anybody associated with those misled and criminal people.”

Einstein — perhaps the most celebrated Jewish intellectual of the 20th century — refused to conflate his Jewish identity with the violence of Zionism. He turned down the offer to become Israel’s president, rejecting the notion that Jewish survival and self-determination should come at the cost of another people’s displacement and suffering. And yet, if Einstein were alive today, his words would likely be condemned under the current definitions of anti-Semitism adopted by many Western governments and institutions, including the controversial International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition, now endorsed by most Australian universities.

Under the IHRA definition, Einstein’s outspoken criticism of Israel — he called its founding actors “terrorists” and denounced their betrayal of Jewish ethics — would render him suspect. He would be accused not only of delegitimising Israel, but also of anti-Semitism. His moral clarity, once visionary, would today be vilified.

That is why we must untangle the threads of Zionism, colonialism and human rights.

Einstein’s resistance to Zionism was not about denying Jewish belonging or rights; it was about refusing to build those rights on ethno-nationalist violence. He understood what too many people fail to grasp today: that Zionism and Judaism are not synonymous.

Zionism is a political ideology rooted in European colonial logics, one that enforces Jewish supremacy in a land shared historically by Palestinian and other Levantine peoples. To criticise this ideology is not anti-Semitic; it is, rather, a necessary act of justice and a moral act of bearing witness. The religious symbolism that Israel uses is irrelevant in this respect. And yet, in today’s political climate, any critique of Israel — no matter how grounded it might be in international law, historical fact or humanitarian concern — is increasingly branded as anti-Semitism. This conflation shields from accountability a settler-colonial state, and it silences Palestinians and their allies from speaking out on the reality of their oppression. Billions in arms sales, stolen resources and apartheid infrastructure don’t just happen; they’re the reason that legitimate “criticism” gets rebranded as “hate”.

READ: Ex-Israel PM accuses Netanyahu of waging war on Israel

To understand Einstein’s critique, we must confront the truth about Zionism itself. While often framed as a movement for Jewish liberation, Zionism in practice has operated as a colonial project of erasure and domination. The Nakba was not a tragic consequence of war, it was a deliberate blueprint for dispossession and disappearance. Israeli historian Ilan Pappé has detailed how David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first Prime Minister, approved “Plan Dalet” on 10 March, 1948. This included the mass expulsion and execution of Palestinians to create a Jewish-majority state. As Ben-Gurion himself declared chillingly: “Every attack has to end with occupation, destruction and expulsion.”

This is the basis of the Zionist state that we are told not to critique.

Einstein saw this unfolding and recoiled. In another 1948 open letter to the New York Times, he and other Jewish intellectuals described Israel’s newly formed political parties — like Herut (the precursor to Likud) — as “closely akin in… organisation, methods, political philosophy and social appeal to the Nazi and Fascist parties.”

Einstein’s words were not hyperbole, they were a warning. Having fled Nazi Germany, he had direct experience with the defining traits of Nazi fascism. “From Israel’s past actions,” he wrote, “we can judge what it may be expected to do in the future.”

Today, we are living in the very future that Einstein feared, a reality marked by massacres in Gaza, the destruction of civilian infrastructure, and the denial of basic essentials such as water, electricity and medical aid. This is not about “self-defence”; it is the logic of colonial domination whereby the land theft continues and the violence escalates.

Einstein warned about what many still refuse to see: a state established on principles of ethnic supremacy and expulsion could never transcend its foundation ethos. Israel’s creation in occupied Palestine is Zionism in practice; it cannot endure without employing repression until resistance is erased entirely. Hence, the Nakba wasn’t a one-off event in 1948; it evolved, funded by Washington, armed by Berlin and enabled by every government that trades Palestinian blood for political favours.

Zionism cannot be separated from the broader history of European settler-colonialism. As Patrick Wolfe explains, the ideology hijacked the rhetoric of Jewish liberation to mask its colonial reality of re-nativism, with the settlers recasting themselves as “indigenous” while painting resistance as terrorism.

READ: Illegal Israeli settlers attack Palestinian school in occupied West Bank

The father of political Zionism, Theodor Herzl, stated in his manifesto-novel Altneuland, “To build anew, I must demolish before I construct.” To him, Palestine was not seen as a shared homeland, but as a house to be razed to the ground and rebuilt by and for Jews alone. His ideology was made possible by British imperial interests to divide and dominate post-Ottoman territories. Through ethnic partition and military alliances embellished under the 1917 Balfour Declaration to the ironic Zionist-Nazi 1933 Haavara Agreement, the Zionist project aligned perfectly with the West’s goal, as per the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement.

Israel is thus criticised because of its political ideology rooted in ethnonationalism and settler colonialism. Equating anti-Zionism to anti-Semitism is a disservice not only to Palestinians, but also to Jews, especially those who, like Einstein, refuse to have their identity weaponised in the service of war crimes. Zionism today includes Christian Zionists, military allies and Western politicians who benefit from Israel’s imperial reach through arms deals, surveillance technology and geostrategic partnerships.

Zionism is a global power structure, not a monolithic ethnic identity.

Many Jews around the world — rabbis, scholars, students and Holocaust survivors and their descendants — continue Einstein’s legacy by saying “Not in our name”. They reject the co-option of Holocaust memory to justify genocide in Gaza. They refuse to be complicit in what the Torah forbids: the theft of land and the murder of innocents. They are not “self-hating Jews”. They are the inheritors of a prophetic tradition of justice. And they are being silenced.

Perhaps the most dangerous development today is, therefore, Israel’s insistence on linking its crimes to Jewish identity. It frames civilian massacres, apartheid policies and violations of international law as acts done in the name of all Jews and Judaism. By tying the Jewish people to the crimes of a state, Israel risks exposing Jews around the world to collective blame and retaliation.

Einstein warned against this. And if Einstein’s vision teaches us anything, it is this: Justice cannot be compromised for comfort and profit. Truth must outlast repression. And freedom must belong to all. In the end, no amount of Israel’s militarisation of terminology, propaganda or geopolitical alliances can suppress a people’s resistance forever or outlast global condemnation. The only question left is: how much more blood will be spilled before justice prevails?

The struggle for clarity today is not just academic, it is existential. Without the ability to distinguish anti-Semitism from anti-Zionism, we cannot build a future where Jews and Palestinians all live in dignity, safety and peace. Reclaiming the term “Semite” in its full meaning, encompassing both Jews and Arabs, is critical. Further isolation of Arabs from their Semitic identity has enabled the dehumanisation of Palestinians and the erasure of shared Jewish-Arab histories, especially the centuries of coexistence, the Jewish-Muslim golden ages in places like Baghdad, Granada/Andalusia, Istanbul, Damascus and Cairo.

Einstein stood up for the future for us to reclaim it.

The way forward must be rooted in truth, justice and accountability. That means unequivocally opposing anti-Semitism in all its forms, but refusing to allow the term to be manipulated as a shield for apartheid, ethnic cleansing and colonial domination. It means affirming that Jewish safety must never come at the price of Palestinian freedom, and that Palestinian resistance is not hatred; it is survival.

And if Einstein would be silenced today, who will speak tomorrow?

OPINION: Palestinian voices are throttled by the promotion of foreign agendas

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

Less than a week into Operation Epic Fury, we have seen a wide variety of munitions used by the U.S. and Israeli militaries and have previously looked at how their employment evolved as the conflict has progressed. We have also gotten a look at an apparently mysterious version of the widely used Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) in Israeli Air Force (IAF) service.

The imagery in question, showing two unusually marked 2,000-pound GBU-31 series JDAMs under the wing of an F-16C/D Barak jet, was posted on the IAF’s official X account earlier this week. It appears some of the photos may have been subsequently taken down. The photos were presented alongside an account of missions flown deep into Iranian territory and over its capital city, Tehran, in the form of a statement from the commander of Ramat David Air Base, identified only as “Col. A.” However, no explanation of the bomb appears to have been given.

The standout feature of the JDAM seen in the photos is its markings. These include a red band around the nose of the weapon, as well as a red-painted nose plug. There is also a more familiar yellow band, which on U.S.-standard munitions indicates that they contain high explosives, around the nose.

A red band, however, is far more unusual and rarely — if ever — seen on a JDAM.

Based on U.S.-standard munitions markings, a red band can indicate an incendiary payload, while dark red on a gray panel “indicates the ammunition contains an irritant (riot control) agent.” There is a good chance that the JDAM might be an incendiary type.

One of the few fielded examples of a JDAM with an incendiary payload that we are readily aware of is the 2,000-pound BLU-119/B Crash PAD (Prompt Agent Defeat), a weapon that doesn’t seem to have been shown before.

Crash PAD was intended to be used exclusively with the JDAM guidance package. Before looking at this weapon in more detail, the basic JDAM kit consists of the guidance package and control section, tailfins for steering, and strakes attached to the bomb for stability and a limited gliding capability. This kit is then mated to an existing bomb body, normally a variant or derivative of the ubiquitous Mk 80 series of weapons.

The Crash PAD was developed in 2002 as a quick reaction capability for use in Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. It was designed to attack chemical and biological weapon stockpiles. It does this by using a combined payload of approximately 145 pounds of PBX-109 high explosive and 420 pounds of white phosphorus.

In this way, the high-explosive blast-fragmentation warhead penetrates the weapon containers, and the white phosphorus warhead defeats the agents by literally incinerating them. This is intended to minimize effects on the civilians and the environment.

There was also a similar type of weapon named Shredder, which was based on the bunker-busting BLU-109 bomb body, as used in the GBU-31 JDAM, for deeper penetration, and also with WP content, but it does not seem to have been produced. There could be other such weapons, too, also based on the JDAM, that we don’t know about.

As for white phosphorus, this remains a controversial and misunderstood weapon.

White phosphorus is not a chemical weapon, as sometimes described, since it is primarily an incendiary weapon, although it’s also regularly used for making smokescreens and for target marking. Burning at around 1,500 degrees Fahrenheit, white phosphorus can obviously inflict terrible injuries, and its use in densely populated areas violates international law.

The warhead for Crash PAD was developed by Alliant Techsystems (ATK), which received a $4-million contract in October 2003 from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. Sled-track testing took place in late January 2003, and flight test occurred in late February 2003, just ahead of the invasion of Iraq.

Details of the use of Crash PAD in Iraq are very scarce, but the weapon seems to have been retained in the U.S. Air Force inventory and, in Fiscal Year 2011, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency initiated concept studies for a BLU-119/B conversion that would use a safer, lower- cost payload fill.

Interestingly, during the Gaza-Israel conflict, the IAF released a photo of one of its AH-64D Apache attack helicopters armed with a mysterious version of the Hellfire air-to-ground missile with a prominent red stripe painted around the middle of its body, all the more intriguing.

As we discussed at the time, this may well have been a version of the Hellfire with a thermobaric warhead, another type of incendiary, designed for destroying enclosed targets.

As internet chatter about the possible meaning behind the red-banded Hellfire spiked, the IAF quietly deleted the post in question, replacing it with a similar photo, this time showing a different AH-64D taking off with standard-looking Hellfires fitted.

Perhaps the red-banded JDAM was another social media slip-up, although at least one of the images is still found on the IAF’s X account.

Since the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has generally been extremely discriminating about the kinds of photos and videos that it releases for public consumption, the red stripes on the JDAM might also indicate something different altogether.

Israel has a long history of adapting U.S.-made and other weapons to its very particular needs, and the marking in question may be entirely specific to the IDF, pointing to a different, novel version of the JDAM.

Regardless, there could certainly be a role in the current conflict for Crash PAD or another agent-defeating munition.

Iran was developing chemical weapons at least as long ago as the early 1980s, and allegedly used them in the Iran-Iraq War, although not on a comparable scale to its adversary.

In 2025, the U.S. Department of State reported unresolved questions surrounding Iran’s chemical and biological activities, including around experiments with pharmaceutical-based agents, and stated that Iran “has not abandoned its intention to conduct research and development of biological agents and toxins for offensive purposes.”

There could be other reasons to use a weapon like Crash PAD in Iran, possibly tied to targets that produce volatile rocket fuel and other dangerous compounds.

In a report last month, the U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank assessed that “Iran’s nuclear facilities hold a range of chemical and toxic hazards.” This includes certain nuclear materials that are also highly toxic.

In the course of time, and despite the secrecy surrounding the details of Israeli combat operations, we might still learn more about what is, for now, something of a mystery munition.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

The international community has a structural problem in reading conflicts: it treats silence as neutrality, when in fact silence is a manufactured condition. When international monitors report the absence of civil protests or testimonies from conflict zones, they are not documenting consensus; they are documenting the success of propaganda operations. This article argues that conflicting parties are now actively exploiting the spiral of silence as a strategic weapon, and the international community’s failure to recognize this results in a structurally flawed diplomatic response even before analysis begins. This argument will be constructed in three layers: how the spiral is engineered, how Sudan proves it, and why the international interpretive framework must be updated immediately.

Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann (1974), in her theory Spiral of Silence, describes how individuals suppress their minority opinions to avoid social isolation. This theory is built on the assumption of a free society, where silence is an organic social choice. In conflict zones, this assumption collapses completely. Silence is not chosen; it is engineered. Propaganda actors flood information channels with dominant narratives not to convince audiences that these narratives are true, but to signal which voices are safe and which are not. The result appears to be consensus. But it is not.

Social media has transformed this architecture of silence into something almost invisible. Platforms give users real-time visibility into how much public response a particular view receives. When opposing content is systematically silenced through algorithmic deprioritization and coordinated mass reporting campaigns, people conclude that speaking out is pointless, or worse, dangerous. Jowett and O’Donnell (2019) note that bandwagon propaganda does not require audiences to believe in the dominant narrative, only to believe that others already believe it. At that point, the spiral becomes self-sustaining: it no longer needs external enforcement because the target population has internalized it themselves.

The agenda-setting theory proposed by McCombs and Shaw (1972) adds another layer to this problem and makes it much more difficult to detect. The media and information channels do not merely reflect reality; they determine what is considered worthy of discussion from the outset. When warring parties dominate the information space, they not only shape international perceptions. They also determine which testimonies are considered safe for local residents to give and which silences are necessary for survival. This is not a side effect of conflict. It is a deliberate targeting of the information environment itself, and the international community has been consistently slow to recognize this as such.

Two technical mechanisms make all this work, and neither requires direct violence to be effective. First, bandwagon propaganda floods channels with coordinated content until dissent appears marginal and irrelevant. Second, fear appeals work without needing to be explicitly stated. In conflict environments, people have witnessed what happens to those who oppose the dominant narrative, so self-censorship becomes a rational choice, not a sign of weakness. The combination of the two is the most dangerous: the spiral no longer requires external enforcement because its targets are already silencing themselves. This is not the moral failure of individuals who choose to remain silent; it is a system designed to work exactly as intended.

The case of Sudan illustrates this most clearly. Both the SAF and the RSF launched coordinated information operations from the early days of the conflict. RSF channels spread a narrative of civilian protection, while the SAF network framed the war solely as a counter-terrorism operation. These two narratives, although contradictory, both served to narrow the space for independent civilian testimony. Civilians in Khartoum and Darfur faced an information environment that made disclosure a risk calculation rather than a right. The internet blackouts recorded at various periods of the conflict were not merely technical obstacles; they were a very clear signal of the price to be paid for speaking out.

Zeitzoff (2017) shows that users in environments close to conflict significantly alter their disclosure behavior under perceived surveillance, even without direct threats. In Sudan, the threat is anything but hypothetical. The diplomatic consequences are immediately apparent: the UN’s initial assessment of the Sudanese conflict has been repeatedly criticized by humanitarian organizations for underestimating civilian casualties and displacement figures. This is not a methodological failure. It is the intended result of a deliberate information architecture, a condition in which the most relevant data is already missing before the verification process even begins.

What makes this a diplomatic crisis, not merely an information crisis, is that the international response is built on what is reported. When open-source assessments treat civilian silence as a neutral baseline, they are not accessing the truth on the ground. They are accessing whatever has made it through the spiral. This pattern repeats itself in various conflicts because it consistently works in Syria, in Myanmar, and in Ethiopia. In each case, the international community finds itself working with records that have been curated by the parties most interested in concealing crimes.

The solution is not more monitoring infrastructure. What is needed is a different interpretative framework. Silence must be treated as a data point that requires explanation, not as a default condition that requires nothing. When there are no reports from conflict zones, it does not mean that nothing is happening; rather, it means that the conditions for speaking out have been destroyed first. Protected witness pathways, verification networks from the diaspora, and analysis of anomalies in information flows are all useful, but only after a fundamental recognition that the problem is not a lack of information, but rather that engineered silence is constantly misinterpreted as the absence of anything worth investigating.

The Spiral of Silence was originally a theory about how even free societies can slowly and unconsciously silence themselves. In the hands of modern propaganda architects, the theory has been repurposed as a method to ensure that the most credible witnesses to crimes never speak out and that their silence is interpreted by the international community as proof that there are no crimes to investigate. The arguments in this article, from the mechanisms of spiral engineering to the role of social media to the case of Sudan, all point to the same conclusion: as long as silence is interpreted as absence, the international community is not conducting independent analysis. They are confirming the narrative of those most interested in concealing the truth. The loudest voices are not the most honest; they are simply the ones allowed to speak.

Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader, just over a week after the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in joint United States-Israeli strikes that have plunged the entire region into a sprawling war.

The 56-year-old, who will now be charged with leading the Islamic Republic through the biggest crisis in its 47-year history, was named by clerics as his father’s successor on Sunday.

Key leaders, Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the armed forces were quick to pledge their backing to the new leader.

Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who has been tasked with steering Iran’s security strategy since the US and Israel launched their all-out offensive, called for unity around the new supreme leader.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf welcomed the choice, saying that following the new supreme leader was a “religious and national duty”.

Mojtaba Khamenei has never run for office or been subjected to a public vote, but has for decades been a highly influential figure in the inner circle of the supreme leader, cultivating deep ties to the IRGC.

In recent years, Khamenei has increasingly been touted as a top potential replacement for his father. His selection could be a sign that more hardline factions in Iran’s establishment retain power, and could indicate that the government has little desire to agree to a deal or negotiations in the short term as the war enters its second week.

Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem described Khamenei as his “father’s gatekeeper”.

“He adopts the positions of his father with respect to the United States, with respect to Israel. So we are expecting a confrontational leader. We’re not expecting any moderation,” he said.

“However, if this war comes to an end and he is still alive, and he is able to continue running the country, there is going to be big potential… to find new routes for Iran,” Hashem said.

Rami Khouri, a distinguished public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut, said Khamenei’s appointment signals “continuity” and that it remains to be seen whether the new supreme leader will push for negotiations to end the war.

Either way, he said, the appointment was “an act of defiance”. Iran is “telling the Americans and Israelis, ‘You wanted to get rid of our system? Well … this is a more radical person than his father who was assassinated,’” he said.

Heidari Alekasir, a member of the Assembly of Experts that was tasked with choosing the supreme leader, said the candidate had been picked based on the late Khamenei’s advice that Iran’s top leader should “be hated by the enemy” instead of praised by it.

“Even the Great Satan [US] has mentioned his name,” the senior cleric said in reference to US President Donald Trump’s earlier statement that Mojtaba Khamenei would be an “unacceptable” choice for him to lead Iran.

Israel’s military had previously warned any successor that “we will not hesitate to target you”.

On Sunday, Trump again promised to exert influence over who is selected as Iran’s next supreme leader, saying that, without Washington’s approval, whoever is picked for the role is “not going to last long”.

The selection of Khamenei’s son is certain to enrage Trump.

Supreme leader not decided by ‘Epstein’s gang’

The 88-member Assembly of Experts said on Sunday that it “did not hesitate for a minute” in choosing a new supreme leader, despite “the brutal aggression of the criminal America and the evil Zionist regime”.

Earlier, the clerical body had indicated it had reached a majority consensus on its choice, without naming who it was, with one member saying, “The path of ⁠Imam Khomeini and ⁠the path of the martyr Imam Khamenei has been ⁠chosen. The name of ⁠Khamenei will continue.”

Mojtaba Khamenei studied under conservative clerics in the seminaries of Qom, the heart of Shia theological learning, and holds the clerical rank of hojjatoleslam, a mid-level clerical ranking.

Ali Khamenei, who led Iran for 37 years, succeeding Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had led the 1979 revolution, was killed in a US-Israeli strike on Tehran on February 28, at the outset of the war, which has now unleashed chaos throughout the Middle East.

The ⁠Israeli ⁠military has already threatened to kill any replacement for Khamenei, while Trump said the war may only end once Iran’s military and leaders have been wiped out.

“He’s going to have to get approval from us,” Trump told ABC News. “If he doesn’t get approval from us, he’s not going to last long,” Trump said on Sunday of any new supreme leader.

Iranian officials have rejected Trump’s push to be involved in the selection of the next leader, insisting that only Iranians can decide the future of their country.

On Friday, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf appeared to ridicule the US president’s demands.

“The fate of dear Iran, which is more precious than life, will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, not by [Jeffrey] Epstein’s gang,” Ghalibaf wrote on X, referring to the late sex offender who had ties to rich and powerful figures in the US.

Dark skies

As clerics selected the new supreme leader, a dark haze hung over Tehran after Israel struck five oil facilities in and around the capital city overnight, setting them ablaze and filling the skies with acrid smoke.

As the war extended into its ninth day, the IRGC said they had enough supplies to continue their drone and missile attacks across the Middle East for up to six months.

IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naini said Iran had so far used only first- and second-generation missiles, but would use “advanced and less-used long-range missiles” in the coming days.

Trump again refused to rule out sending American ground troops into Iran, but continued to insist that the war was all but won, despite the ongoing Iranian missile and drone strikes.

Analysts warn there is no clear path to ending the conflict, which US and Israeli officials say could last a month or longer.

Middle Eastern crises seldom stay localized. They frequently go well beyond the battlefield in terms of politics, strategy, and psychology. Officials in Beijing, Moscow, Taipei, and Kyiv will be keeping a tight eye on events surrounding Iran today, in addition to those in Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv. Power perceptions are shaped by situations like this, and in international politics, perception can be almost as important as actual power.

The current state of affairs presents an unsettling question for China and Russia. A large-scale military operation against a prominent regional actor will unavoidably send signals about the balance of power in the international system if it continues without significant opposition from other big states. The Middle East is not where those signals will end. They will visit other geopolitical hotspots, like Taiwan and Ukraine, where credibility is crucial to deterrence.

Iran has progressively evolved into more than simply another diplomatic friend in Beijing’s eyes. It now plays a part in China’s larger Eurasian economic and strategic strategy. Beijing has been building energy and transportation networks that connect western China to the Arabian Sea through projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Chinese planners considering long-term energy security have taken note of the geographical proximity of the Pakistani port of Gwadar to Iran’s Jask Oil Terminal.

Beijing has long sought variety, which these lines provide. Chinese strategists have been concerned about dependence on maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca for decades. The energy lifelines of the second-largest economy in the world could be threatened by any interruption there. Iran fits into China’s attempt to lessen that vulnerability because of its location and resources. Trade in energy has already strengthened ties between the two nations. Iran has quietly emerged as a major supplier of cheap crude to China in spite of U.S. sanctions. Both nations are able to avoid some aspects of the Western financial architecture since many of those transactions go through China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System and are settled in renminbi.

However, the partnership has grown beyond oil. Beijing and Tehran signed a long-term strategic agreement in 2021 with the goal of working together on infrastructure, energy, and technology for decades. Later, China backed Iran’s admission to groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Then came a diplomatic surprise: Beijing assisted in mediating the reestablishment of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, a development that surprised many Western observers.

Taken together, these actions indicated a significant development. China was starting to portray itself not only as a regional economic force but also as a diplomatic player with the ability to influence its political environment.

That ambition makes the current moment particularly sensitive for Beijing. Governments in the Middle East and a large portion of the Global South frequently evaluate great powers based on their actions during times of crisis rather than their words during times of peace. Some capitals may discreetly reevaluate how reliable such support would be in an actual security crisis if China seems unwilling to protect the strategic environment surrounding its alliances.

The ramifications go well beyond Iran. Chinese officials have made it clear time and time again that they would not support Taiwan’s formal independence efforts and will not allow outside meddling in the Taiwan Strait. The legitimacy of those warnings is just as important to deterrence as military prowess. Some Washington policymakers may assume that China is unlikely to take more aggressive action in other areas if Beijing’s response to significant geopolitical shocks involving its partners primarily consists of diplomatic criticism.

Russia faces a different—but no less consequential—set of calculations. Moscow has positioned itself as a major Middle Eastern political mediator for the majority of the last ten years through its military engagement in Syria. Russian soldiers established a key base on the Mediterranean coast and assisted in stabilizing Bashar al-Assad’s regime starting in 2015. From such a vantage point, Moscow participated in almost all meaningful discussions regarding the future of the area.

However, that impact has been diminished. The political landscape has drastically changed as a result of the fall of the Syrian government and the growing power of actors supported by the West in Damascus. In addition to losing a strategic ally, Russia has also lost a significant portion of the regional clout it developed over the course of almost 10 years of diplomatic and military engagement.

In that context, Iran now occupies a far more important place in Moscow’s strategic thinking than it once did. Defense and energy cooperation are two areas where the two nations’ relationship has grown. Iranian drones have contributed to Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, establishing a clear connection between the conflict in Eastern Europe and events in the Middle East. The message would reverberate much beyond the immediate battlefield if Iran were to sustain a significant military defeat at the hands of a concerted operation by the United States and Israel. While opposing major powers stayed mostly on the sidelines, observers from all around the world would see that Washington still had the capability to change regional dynamics.

These impressions build up in geopolitics. Credibility develops gradually, frequently over years, but it can deteriorate rapidly. Some governments may start to doubt the geopolitical benefit of aligning with Moscow if Russia seems incapable—or unwilling—to react when a close ally is under severe strain. However, competing nations might feel more confident to test Russian interests in other disputed areas, such as the Black Sea or Ukraine. However, Moscow’s choices are far from straightforward. In order to lessen the impact of Western sanctions, Russia has been fostering stronger commercial connections with a number of Gulf governments in recent years. Openly supporting Iran might make those relations more difficult. But staying completely silent runs the danger of conveying a contrary message: that when tensions rise, Russian alliances provide little strategic defense.

It seems unlikely that either China or Russia will move quickly to engage in direct combat. There would be significant risks of escalation. However, great-power competition seldom relies solely on choices made on the battlefield. There are plenty of other ways to be influential. Both nations have permanent seats in the UN Security Council. They can guarantee that any military action is politically disputed on the international scene by imposing debates, contesting legal justifications, and introducing resolutions, even symbolic ones. Beyond the Security Council, diplomacy is also important. Sovereignty and non-intervention have long been valued in nations like South Africa, Brazil, and India. Even if it doesn’t instantly change the situation on the ground, coordinated pressure from a larger group of states could influence how the issue is portrayed worldwide.

Another option is economic levers. The energy markets continue to be extremely vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Major exporters continue to have the power to affect supply and pricing decisions by working with producers in organizations like OPEC+. Even little changes can serve as a reminder to the globe that regional conflicts have far-reaching economic repercussions. Great powers are also capable of sending quieter signals. Regional balances are not changing in isolation, as seen by intelligence collaboration, defensive technology transfers, and conspicuous naval deployments in nearby waterways. These actions convey that other important actors are keeping a close eye on them even while they avoid open confrontation.

Ultimately, this moment’s significance goes well beyond Iran. Expectations about how power functions in the international system are gradually shaped by incidents such as these. The precedent starts to take hold if armed action consistently reshapes regional orders without significant opposition from opposing nations. That precedent unavoidably affects Taiwan’s future for China. For Russia, it relates to both the larger security balance throughout Europe and the continuing conflict in Ukraine. Credibility is crucial in both situations.

Moments like this become inevitable tests if Beijing and Moscow want to maintain an international system where power is more widely spread. It is not always necessary to escalate conflict in order to respond. It often involves proving that significant changes in regional power will not happen completely unchallenged through diplomacy, economic pressure, and strategic signaling. There is meaning in silence as well. In places far from the Persian Gulf, how Tehran interprets that silence now could influence strategic decisions tomorrow.

Iran’s military and political leaders pledge allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei as Saudi Arabia reports two deaths amid Iranian counterattacks.

Iranian state television has announced that the Assembly of Experts has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after a “decisive vote”. He’s the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed by the United States on February 28.

Tehran has carried out more attacks on Gulf states – despite an apology by the president to Iran’s neighbours.

Civilian targets have been hit, including airports and vital infrastructure.

Who’s in control in Iran – and how will Gulf states react as the attacks continue?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

John Brennan – Former director of the Central Intelligence Agency under the administration of US President Barack Obama

Bader Al-Saif – Professor at Kuwait University and fellow at Chatham House, specialising in Middle East history and politics

Trita Parsi – Executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Over the last seven days, we have watched a joint air campaign unlike what we have ever seen before. New capabilities and evolved threats have made headlines as the world watched much of the Middle East become a free-fire zone. At the same time, many questions surrounding how long the war will take and its true scope and goals grow louder. These calls for clarity are becoming more pronounced globally, as well, as the Strait of Hormuz is experiencing a heart attack of sorts, with energy shipments stopped on the strategic waterway’s northern edge.

While missile and drone launches have decreased significantly, these weapons continue to score major hits. Beyond U.S. military-related sites in Gulf Arab states, Iran continues to pummel energy production infrastructure. There are real concerns about the ability to defend against these attacks over the long term as interceptor stocks dwindle.

All this is occurring while Iran is experiencing a power vacuum the likes of which it has never experienced. As the U.S. and Israel ramp up strikes across the country during the transition from standoff to direct attacks, what will come of Iran’s fractured government remains a total unknown. Fears are growing that the default control of Iran could fall to its most well-armed and fanatical arm, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a top possibility we laid out in our feature published before the strikes commenced.

So much has happened in one week, and we were right there providing rolling coverage and breakouts nearly around the clock. Now, once again, we look at the present. Here’s what’s going on as we flow through day eight of the war.

LATEST UPDATES

We have concluded our rolling coverage in this piece.

UPDATE: 4:29 PM EST-

Check out our feature on the major alarm bells that should be ringing after Iran successfully targeted multiple missile defense radars in the region.

Iranian Attacks On Critical Missile Defense Radars Are A Wake-Up Call

Iran’s successful targeting of prized missile defense radars in the Middle East highlights global vulnerabilities.

Feature:https://t.co/CkleCjkKBB

— The War Zone (@thewarzonewire) March 7, 2026

More video has emerged from the dignified transfer of the remains of six soldiers killed in Kuwait on March 1.

U.S. President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump attended the dignified transfer at Dover Air Force Base of the 6 U.S. Army soldiers killed during an Iranian strike on their operations center.
🇺🇸Capt. Cody Khork
🇺🇸Sgt. 1st Class Noah Tietjens 
🇺🇸Sgt. 1st Class Nicole… pic.twitter.com/akSQntnUnM

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 7, 2026

Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto wartime leader in the wake of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, issued a direct threat against Trump via X.

We will relentlessly avenge the blood of our of our Leader and our people. Trump must pay and will pay. #Trumpmustpay

— Ali Larijani | علی لاریجانی (@alilarijani_ir) March 7, 2026

Meanwhile, in Iraq, pro-Iranian members of parliament are shouting the long-familiar phrases “America is the Great Satan” and “Death to America.”

Members of parliament from the pro-Iranian factions in the Iraqi parliament are shouting “America is the Great Satan” and “Death to America” https://t.co/78WrtfLsvK

— Guy Elster גיא אלסטר (@guyelster) March 7, 2026

Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group, is launching volleys of rockets at Israel.

UPDATE: 2:35 PM EST –

Trump arrived in Dover for the dignified transfer of six soldiers killed by an Iranian drone attack in Kuwait on March 1.

Today, we honor six American heroes who made the ultimate sacrifice in service to our nation.

Capt. Cody Khork
Sgt. 1st Class Noah Tietjens
Sgt. 1st Class Nicole Amor
Sgt. Declan Coady
Maj. Jeffrey O’Brien
Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan

May God hold them in His eternal… pic.twitter.com/pNMHg7MdPz

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 7, 2026

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Saturday that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told him Washington has no intention of arming Kurdish groups in Iran, a direct response to reports that have rattled Ankara as the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Tehran enters its second week.

Given the ambiguity of the situation, the Kurds say they are not rushing into Iran.

“Certainly, we are staying neutral as Iraqi Kurds b/c there’s no clarity for us on US policy,” a KRG official said. “Our assessment is there can’t be regime change w/o boots on the ground and that the US is not sending [them].” @BarakRavid, @MarcACaputohttps://t.co/kKj6GWOCHs

— Shalom Lipner (@ShalomLipner) March 7, 2026

To counter Iranian drone and missile fire, a U.S. Counter Rocket, Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) system was activated near the American embassy in Baghdad.

A Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM) system was activated a short time ago in the area of the American embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, due to reported drone and missile fire. pic.twitter.com/f2VOtE1ZbU

— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) March 7, 2026

U.S. IndoPacific Command took to X to dispute some claims about the recent sinking of the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena by a USN fast attack submarine.

🚫 Iran claims IRIS Dena was unarmed – FALSE
✅ Law of Armed Conflict authorized the use of force to target and destroy valid military targets – TRUE
✅ U.S. forces planned for and Sri Lanka provided life-saving support to survivors in accordance with the Law of Armed Conflict -… pic.twitter.com/DdY5RNFUYf

— U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (@INDOPACOM) March 7, 2026

The IDF said it is continuing to strike Iranian ballistic missile production sites.

🎯 STRUCK: 2 main ballistic missile production sites in Parchin and Shahrud.

Over the past week, hundreds of IAF fighter jets struck the Iranian regime’s production industries, which are used for the development and production of missiles and weapons.

Among the targets struck:… pic.twitter.com/sF3rRCvWqb

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 7, 2026

The IDF launched strikes Saturday evening on Iran’s national oil facilities in Tehran for the first time since the start of the war, targeting dozens of fuel storage tanks, YNET News reported, citing Israeli officials.

“The attack was carried out under directives from the political leadership and with IDF support, marking a significant escalation in Israel’s campaign against Iranian regime infrastructure,” the outlet explained.

An Israeli security official says recent strikes targeted fuel tanks used by Iran’s regime, adding pressure on the government is increasing and it may soon struggle to provide citizens with basic necessities. “We have not said the last word,” the official said. – N12 https://t.co/5yX69pUMl2

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) March 7, 2026

The Israel Defense Forces says it’s demolished a majority of Iran’s ballistic-missile launchers, causing the number of missiles targeting Israel and other countries in the region to fall throughout the week, Bloomberg News reported.

More than 60% of such launchers have been “neutralized and destroyed,” Eyal Zamir, chief of the general staff of the IDF, said in a televised statement on Thursday. Zamir did not say how many had been struck, but the IDF had cited the number as 300 earlier that day.

Israeli assessments say Iran now has about 100 operational missile launchers remaining out of roughly 420 before the war.

Around 150 launchers were destroyed, while another 150 were struck and buried in underground sites, leaving them currently unusable. pic.twitter.com/LnYpNdGIm0

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 7, 2026

UPDATE: 1:45 PM EST—

We are getting new satellite images of bomb damage in Iran from Vantor. The images show the airport and port in the city of Bushehr, which sits along the northeastern shore of the Persian Gulf. We also get a shot of the tunnel entrances at the underground facility in Natanz and what looks like a vehicle destroyed nearby, possibly a short-range air defense system.

The entrance to the naval base doesn’t look to inviting anymore:

We are also getting a satellite view of the destruction at Tehran International from the IAF’s strikes there last night:

Satellite imagery shows that at least 17 aircraft, most of which appear to be passenger planes, were destroyed in last night’s US and Israeli attacks on Mehrabad International Airport.

Credit: @planet pic.twitter.com/ov1OBa1Ks3

— Farzad Seifikaran (@FSeifikaran) March 7, 2026

Another drone strike on a highrise tower in Dubai:

UPDATE: 1:20 PM EST—

Israel is now clarifying its attack on Iran’s international airport, stating they targeted aircraft used by the IRGC for weapons transfers to proxies. These aircraft are well known and include some of the country’s last airworthy 747s.

STRUCK: 16 IRGC Quds Force aircraft used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah.

The IAF conducted a wave of precise strikes in Tehran, targeting military infrastructure at Mehrabad Airport, a central hub used by the IRGC to arm and fund its terror proxies across the Middle East.… pic.twitter.com/ZbZJMvikI6

— Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) March 7, 2026

Looks like a lot of aircraft destroyed:

Aftermath of the Israeli air raid that hit Tehran’s Mehrabad International Airport last night, reportedly destroying 16 aircraft.

Burnt out wrecks and plane parts can be seen scattered around. pic.twitter.com/l2yQGjXQez

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 7, 2026

South Korea is rushing deliveries of SAMs to the UAE as the interceptor crunch deepens:

South Korea announced that it will send around 30 ballistic missile interceptors to the UAE via C-17 right tomorrow. It would appear that they brought ROKAF’s reserves. Among the 10 batteries under contract, currently, two M-SAM-II batteries are operating in the UAE. The… pic.twitter.com/WIA3bQE0oo

— Mason ヨンハク (@mason_8718) March 7, 2026

The scarcity of interceptors continues to raise alarms amongst allies around the globe:

Bloomberg: “Several European Union states warned at a closed-door meeting in Brussels this week that there is a shortage of interceptors across the world, according to people familiar with the matter.”https://t.co/UNB27op4nb

— Vivian Nereim (@viviannereim) March 7, 2026

Another round of B-2 strikes appears to be on the way. It will be interesting to see if they recover in Diego Garcia this time instead of the United States:

Emirati fighters are seen prowling over the Gulf Of Oman in search of Iranian drones to kill.

Emirati Vipers and Mirages on counter-UAS patrols in vicinity of Fujairah Port and the surrounding oil infrastructure. These are also flown much farther out for forward intercepts. pic.twitter.com/6DQuvimTTO

— Abd (@blocksixtynine) March 7, 2026

More indications that the Kurds are going to go into Iran, but just how shallow those movements would be isn’t clear.

BREAKING: The Secretary-General of Khabat, a Kurdish organization based in Iraq, tells Al Jazeera that Kurdish fighters in Iraq will “likely” stage a ground operation in Iran, confirming communication with the US

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) March 7, 2026

The Iranian drone attack on Dubai’s international airport may have been targeting the air traffic control tower. It is possible that this radar is tied into the military’s air defense architecture, but even if it is not, it would be another blow to the economy of the country as it would impact air travel.

An unconfirmed report states that the US warned the Iranian warship Dena to abandon ship multiple times before the Los Angeles class fast attack submarine sunk it via torpedo. This is supposedly coming from one of the sailors aboard that survived.

An Iranian sailor who was killed when the warship Dena was struck by the US near Sri Lanka had called his father shortly beforehand, saying American forces had issued two warnings for the crew to abandon the vessel, a source close to the family told Iran International.

The… pic.twitter.com/ujm2NJej76

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 7, 2026

UPDATE 12:25 PM EST—

Iran is going after the heart of Saudi oil production.

Saudi Arabia says it intercepted and destroyed 16 drones heading toward the Shaybah oil field, one of the kingdom’s largest energy sites producing about 1 million barrels per day. The defense ministry did not say where the drones came from.https://t.co/MuYLumDuPY

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 7, 2026

There are additional indications that America’s involvement in this conflict will be longer than some anticipated:

A joint letter from the Commanding General and Command Chief of the Air National Guard have published a letter to their subordinates indicating that their continued support will be necessary in the weeks ahead.

This is following reports yesterday that CENTCOM is requesting the… pic.twitter.com/bPJyMvvn0P

— TheIntelFrog (@TheIntelFrog) March 6, 2026

NBC News reports that Trump has a high interest in deploying ground troops for the war effort.

It appears that U.S. Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopters are active in countering Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq.

Reported footage of a US Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopter targeting Iranian-backed milita positions outside of Mosul, Iraq tonight.

Seen here firing Hydra 70mm rockets. pic.twitter.com/HsZgPtJYuw

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 6, 2026

IAF states it has intercepted over 110 long-range drones launched from Iran since the war began.

מטוס קרב של חיל-האוויר יירט כלי טיס בלתי מאויש מאיראן לפני שחצה לשטח מדינת ישראל

מתחילת המבצע יורטו יותר מ-110 כלי טיס בלתי מאוישים ששוגרו מאיראן

חיל-האוויר ממשיך להסיר איומים על אזרחי מדינת ישראל במקביל להעמקת הפגיעה בכלל מערכיו של משטר הטרור האיראני.

צפו בתיעוד: pic.twitter.com/fxkhN8H53K

— Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) March 7, 2026

The Israel Defense Forces have posted a video from one of its aerial assets running down what it says are missile launch operators and bombing them:

‼️هر فردی که در سامانه پرتاب موشک‌ها فعالیت می‌کند باید بداند: شما تحت تهدید هستید.

ما به هر عامل پرتاب موشک بالستیک که تهدیدی علیه شهروندان اسرائیل باشد خواهیم رسید -در میدان، در پایگاه‌ها، در مراکز فرماندهی و حتی در خانه.

هر فردی که میخواهد زنده بماند باید فوراً سلاح خود را… pic.twitter.com/sjMDUD2eSS

— ارتش دفاعی اسرائیل | IDF Farsi (@IDFFarsi) March 7, 2026

Israel also says the chief of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) just flew a combat mission over Iran.

There are reports of additional US wounded from Epic Fury, but CENTCOM tells us that the tally still stands at six troops killed and 10 seriously wounded. This could be due to a delay in information or just erroneous reports, and we will keep you posted.

What appears to be a HIMARS launcher firing a rocket (likely PrSM ballistic missile, the first of which was used operationally in this war) from the beach in Bahrain. It hasn’t been clear where the United States is firing these weapons from, but it would appear that, assuming this video is authentic, Bahrain is one of those locales. It is just 125 miles from Bahrain to Iran, so PrSM would be able to reach nearly two hundred miles into Iran from this distance.

Footage confirms a U.S. M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launching a Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) toward Iran from Bahrain. pic.twitter.com/aQBubFQEYS

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) March 7, 2026

Israel says it destroyed Iran’s central hub of its air defense efforts:

⭕️The IDF dismantled the air defense situation room of the IRGC Air Force, responsible for the aerial situational assessment and to defend Iran’s airspace.

Additionally, the Israeli Air Force struck air defense systems, a site used to manufacture & launch ballistic missiles,… pic.twitter.com/DYNKhz03e3

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 7, 2026

B-1B bombers are now operating out of RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom. This comes after the U.K. government denied US access to Fairford and Diego Garcia. We should expect bombers in Diego Garcia soon. These will likely include B-2 and possibly B-52s. Forward deploying the bombers will drastically increase sortie rates and put less stress on aerial refueling assets.

USAF B-1B Lancer heavy bomber landing in Britain, following a mission that saw it take off from the U.S. and strike Iran. pic.twitter.com/idujAR9eeY

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 7, 2026

A fairly unique bomber mission #FreeIran
— Operation EPIC FURY —

Yesterday, a total of 4x B-1B “Lancer” bombers departed the USA heading towards Europe. 1 airframe, which used the callsign “PIKE72” (86-0120 #AE6BFA) went to RAF Fairford, while the other 3 aircraft… pic.twitter.com/XMFgf2mwFv

— DefenceGeek 🇬🇧 (@DefenceGeek) March 7, 2026

While Iranian launches have decreased, they certainly are far from stopping. Just overnight alone, Iran launched nearly 140 weapons at the UAE alone.

Iran fired 16 ballistic missiles and 121 drones at UAE overnight. Fifteen of the missiles were shot down, one fell into the sea. All drones intercepted except two: MoD

One drone slipped through and hit Dubai’s international airport.

— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) March 7, 2026

Multiple MQ-9s have been lost over Iran in the conflict so far, but they have been extremely effective in taking out all types of Iranian targets, from missile launchers to drones to fighter aircraft to vessels. As we noted in our previous update, they are also far more expendable and less risky to deploy deep in Iran than crewed alternatives. But as we have explored in depth, air supremacy over Iran has not been achieved and won’t for some time.

Another US MQ-9 Reaper UCAV was shot down by IRGC Aerospace Force air defense over Hormozgan province. Some sources write that this is an Israeli Hermes-900, but this is clearly US MQ-9 with Hellfire missiles pic.twitter.com/7nvOEEoGUz

— Yuri Lyamin (@imp_navigator) March 7, 2026

Iran’s new leadership has stated that the country will stop attacking its neighbors if they do not participate in attacks on Iran. Iranian officials have also made clear that they see the basic act of hosting U.S. bases as contributing to the current campaign. The drones and missiles have continued to be launched at Arab Gulf states, regardless.

This is a misinterpretation, btw, which the President’s office corrected.

“President Pezeshkian’s message is clear: If the regional countries do not participate in US attacks on Iran, we will not attack them.” https://t.co/cD18bCugv4 pic.twitter.com/H4S8e9YTWM

— Hassan Mafi ‏ (@thatdayin1992) March 7, 2026

#Iran’s President has issued a new video message: The idea of Iran surrendering unconditionally is a dream they will take to their graves… Interim Leadership Council decided yesterday to end strikes on neighboring countries unless Iran is attacked from those territories. pic.twitter.com/TPyMSVPLWz

— Iran Nuances (@IranNuances) March 7, 2026

Some in the Iranian parliament are not pleased with even indicating the country may cease its retaliation efforts aimed at Arab countries across the Persian Gulf:

Iranian parliament member is furious about the remarks made by Iran’s president, Pezeshkian, today.

Iranian MP says:
“Mr. Pezeshkian’s weak, unprofessional, and publicly unacceptable televised address has made it the definitive duty of the Presidium and members of the Assembly… https://t.co/D1tF98QV4D

— Arya – آریا (@AryJeay) March 7, 2026

U.S. intel agencies warned prior to Operation Epic Fury that favorable regime change in Iran is unlikely to occur regardless of the military operation used to achieve it, according to The Washington Post.

NEW: A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America’s 18 intelligence agencies, found that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched military and clerical establishment 🧵

— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) March 7, 2026

The lack of preparedness by the Uited Kingdom in responding to the conflict is becoming an issue back home and internationally.

EXC: The US first asked about the use of UK bases to attack Iran on February 11, SIXTEEN days before the first missiles flew. The first warship HMS Dragon will not sail until next week, by which point at least 26 days will have passed https://t.co/tXRyQ2Gq5A

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) March 5, 2026

Jordan was “fucking furious,” a former minister with friends in Amman says. “The Emiratis, Kuwaitis, and even the Canadians are all asking, ‘What the fuck are you doing? Whose side are you on?’” The Emiratis pointed out that Britain was failing to help protect the 240,000 British… https://t.co/648pMme7C8

— Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) March 7, 2026

The United Kingdom is moving ahead with its deployment of Wildcat helicopters to Cyprus to help in the counter-drone mission after a successful attack on the RAF’s base there that originated in Lebanon.

The RAF has also shared imagery of Typhoon fighters operating in Qatar to help defend against drone attacks.

Four RAF Typhoon aircraft have deployed from RAF Coningsby to Qatar, strengthening the UK’s air presence in the Middle East.

Operating alongside 12 Squadron and the Qatari Typhoon squadron, the aircraft will support Bahraini and Emirati air defence. pic.twitter.com/3rzhN7UMB0

— Royal Air Force (@RoyalAirForce) March 7, 2026

Turkey may also deploy fighters to Cyprus to defend against any possible drone attacks.

🇹🇷 BREAKING: Turkiye is considering deploying F-16 fighter jets to Northern Cyprus, according to a Defence Ministry source.

Source: Reuters pic.twitter.com/u4wltMKRrb

— Defence Index (@Defence_Index) March 7, 2026

We could also be seeing the deployment of a Royal Navy carrier very soon.

Drones continue to hit civilian areas in the Gulf Arab states, including a drone attack on the UAE’s international airport:

Watch the moment a drone struck Dubai International Airport’s runway, forcing the suspension of all flights on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/uU2msQeSX1

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) March 7, 2026

A stunning image of the destroyed AN/TYP-2 anti-ballistic missile radar, one of a number of prized radars that have been struck by Iranian weapons. We have a major story coming on this and its implications today. This is a scenario we have been warning about for years. Stay tuned.

Photos have now confirmed the destruction of a AN/TPY-2 Forward Based X-band Transportable Radar operated by the U.S. Army, following an Iranian drone attack earlier this week targeting Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The AN/TPY-2 is the primary ground-based air surveillance… pic.twitter.com/54QyQCxNVW

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 7, 2026

Another commercial vessel appears to have been attacked in the Persian Gulf:

Israel is back to fighting on two fronts, with major operations in Lebanon ongoing since Hezbollah broke the ceasefire in retaliation for Israel’s air campaign against Iran.

Local sources tell me that the IDF have reportedly conducted an air assault near the village of Al-Nabi Shayth in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley.

Intense fighting underway. pic.twitter.com/3A0j42sVF2

— GMI (@Global_Mil_Info) March 6, 2026

Reports state that China is working with Iran to get safe passage of oil tankers through the Strait. China has a high degree of dependence on energy resources from the Middle East.

China in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz, sources say
https://t.co/hJ1KsNsQ68

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 6, 2026

Trump again lauded the achievements of the air war so far, highlighting how the country’s conventional fighting capabilities have been ‘wiped out.’

🚨 JUST IN — PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IRAN: “Their army is gone. Their navy is gone. Their communications are gone. Their leaders are gone. Two sets of their leaders are gone. They’re down to their third set. Their Air Force is wiped out entirely. Think of it.”

“They have 32 ships.… pic.twitter.com/xxhdzYqHu1

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) March 6, 2026

Iran’s attack on the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia appears to have put it completely out of action:

Airstrikes overnight pummeled Iran, including its largest airport:

Massive cloud of smoke rising over the port city of Bushehr in southern Iran following American/Israeli airstrikes on Saturday afternoon. pic.twitter.com/Cf0AGhGtuy

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) March 7, 2026

Contact the author: Tyler@twz.com