TODAY

On the 13th day of increasingly tense protests against Iran’s leadership, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi urged U.S. President Donald Trump to intervene on behalf of the anti-government demonstrators. His comments came a short while after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei finally addressed the unrest with a defiant tone, blaming Trump for sparking the protests and suggesting that crackdowns will become more severe. Meanwhile, an Iranian prosecutor is threatening protestors with death. More on that later in this story.

Amid all the rhetoric, the ferocity of the unrest has reportedly compelled the U.S. intelligence community to rethink its initial assessment of the situation, recognizing that it is more serious than initially thought. Meanwhile, observers say the death toll has increased as millions of Iranians again took to the streets across the nation. Protestors are blaming a regime crackdown, while Iranian security forces say they have been the subject of attacks by unruly mobs.

As we previously noted, the protests began Dec. 28. 2025, sparked by anger over rising prices, devalued currency, a devastating drought, and brutal government crackdowns. You can catch up with our previous coverage of the unfolding events here.

Video emerging on social media shows large crowds continuing demonstrations throughout the country, with some showing damaged buildings in the aftermath of previous protests. However, getting a full picture of what is unfolding remains a challenge given the ongoing shutdown of internet and phone service in Iran.

Despite the violence committed by the Iranian regime and the internet outage across the country the people in Iran are unfazed and continue to fight. Tehran tonight. pic.twitter.com/QyfFvGhclU

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 9, 2026

🚨 IRAN RISES UP

Despite the massacre we witnessed last night, anti-Islamic Iranians are once again out. Day 13 of the uprising.

This one is in Zahedan. pic.twitter.com/GsSqQx6hIQ

— Tousi TV (@TousiTVOfficial) January 9, 2026

Pahlavi, whose fatally ill father, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fled Iran ahead of the 1979 Islamic revolution, is now living in exile in the U.S. He called upon Trump to back up tough words with actions. As we have pointed out before, the American leader has said the Khamenei regime is “going to have to pay hell” if it starts killing protestors in large numbers.

“Mr. President, this is an urgent and immediate call for your attention, support, and action,” Pahlavi extolled on X. “Last night you saw the millions of brave Iranians in the streets facing down live bullets. Today, they are facing not just bullets but a total communications blackout. No Internet. No landlines. Ali Khamenei, fearing the end of his criminal regime at the hands of the people and with the help of your powerful promise to support the protesters, has threatened the people on the streets with a brutal crackdown.”

“I have called the people to the streets to fight for their freedom and to overwhelm the security forces with sheer numbers. Last night they did that,” Pahlavi continued. “Your threat to this criminal regime has also kept the regime’s thugs at bay. But time is of the essence. The people will be on the streets again in an hour. I am asking you to help. You have proven and I know you are a man of peace and a man of your word. Please be prepared to intervene to help the people of Iran.”

Mr. President, this is an urgent and immediate call for your attention, support, and action. Last night you saw the millions of brave Iranians in the streets facing down live bullets. Today, they are facing not just bullets but a total communications blackout. No Internet. No…

— Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) January 9, 2026

Asked for a response from the Trump administration, the White House referred us to the president’s remarks yesterday, which can be seen in the following video.

#Trump says: “I have let [#Iran‘s leaders] know that if they start killing people … we’re going to hit them very hard. … [T]hey know and they’ve been told very strongly … that if they do that, they’re going to have to pay hell”. pic.twitter.com/Uppnejnuvt

— Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) January 8, 2026

In his speech before supporters in Qom province, Khamenei took aim at Trump and other outside “hirelings” for fanning the flames.

Trump “made an irrelevant and provocative statement declaring that, should the government of Iran take certain actions, he would move against it,” Khamenei complained. “Such remarks have emboldened rioters and elements hostile to the nation. Were he truly capable of governing his own country, he would attend to its numerous internal crises.”

The Iranian leader then intimated that those continuing to protest will be met with a harsh response.

“Certain people accept and act according to his wishes, engaging in acts of sabotage and arson merely to please” Trump, Khamenei continued. “It must be clearly understood that the Islamic Republic was established through the sacrifice of hundreds of thousands of honorable individuals, and those who opposed it have failed. The Islamic Republic will not be overthrown. Do not serve foreign powers, whoever you may be, if you become an agent of foreigners and act on their behalf, the Iranian nation will disown you, and the Islamic establishment will likewise reject you as for that arrogant man who sits in judgment over the entire world.”

Full Speech: Khamenei’s 1st Reaction Amid Iran Protests, Trump Regime Change Threat, Israel War Plan

Tehran’s prosecutor took an even harsher stance, threatening protestors with death.

“We will show no leniency toward instigators of unrest,” said Ali Salehi. “They will be charged with Fasad fil ard (‘spreading mischief on earth’), which carries the death penalty.”

BREAKING:

Tehran’s chief prosecutor said the Islamic regime will execute anti-regime protesters

“We will show no leniency toward instigators of unrest. They will be charged with Fasad fil ard (‘spreading mischief on earth’), which carries the death penalty,” said Ali Salehi. pic.twitter.com/mSjUAeLlFC

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) January 9, 2026

So far, “at least 51 protesters, including nine children under the age of 18, have been killed and hundreds more injured in the first 13 days of the new round of nationwide protests in Iran,” the Norway-based Iran Human Rights NGO (IHRNGO) reported on Friday. “IHRNGO has also received reports of dozens more protesters being killed in Tehran, Mashhad, Karaj (Fardis) and Hamedan. These reports are currently being verified and not included in the present figures.”

A video shows multiple bodies on hospital floor in Tehran as the Islamic Republic continues its campaign of repression during an internet and telephone blackout. pic.twitter.com/HLTyhrFFzq

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) January 9, 2026

There are claims that Iran’s Basij security forces opened fire on protestors in Tehran.

Eyewitness report from Tehran:

“ Last night in central Tehran, around 8–9 p.m., riot police were dispersing people with tear gas and pellet guns. But when we moved past Enghelab, toward Sharif University and Behboudi, there were no officers there; the riot units had all pulled… https://t.co/i2hi9ApA4e

— ثنا ابراهیمی | Sana Ebrahimi (@__Injaneb96) January 9, 2026

Meanwhile, Iran’s state media has released a video it claims shows protestors shooting security forces in Kermanshah. Iranian officials said security personnel were killed in Tehran as well.

“After unrest in various cities and locations, the capital was also affected by the brutal attacks of armed terrorism,” the official Iranian Tasnim news agency claimed. “Last night, armed terrorists martyred several personnel of the Greater Tehran Police Intelligence with direct Kalashnikov gunfire.”

Meanwhile, Iranian intelligence is urging residents to turn in those engaging in demonstrations.

As the protests rage on, the idea that they pose a serious challenge to the Khamenei regime is gaining increasing traction in U.S. intelligence circles, Axios reported on Friday.

“Early this week, U.S. intelligence assessed that the protests lacked sufficient energy to challenge the stability of the regime,” U.S. officials told Axios. “But that view is being reassessed in light of recent events.”

Mike Waltz, the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., said, “America stands with the Iranian people in their quest for basic dignity and freedom.”

The Iranian regime is once again BRUTALIZING its own people instead of listening to them.

As @POTUS has made clear, we are watching!

America stands with the Iranian people in their quest for basic dignity and freedom. https://t.co/FLYLA70sq5

— Ambassador Mike Waltz (@USAmbUN) January 9, 2026

Though Khamenei has vowed not to back down to protestors, a British Member of Parliament suggested some Iranian leaders may be preparing to leave the country.

“We’re also seeing Russian cargo aircraft coming and landing in Tehran, presumably carrying weapons and ammunition, and we’re hearing reports of large amounts of gold leaving Iran,” Tom Tugendhat told parliament. He then asked whether the government could update lawmakers on reports that “suggest that the regime itself is preparing for life after the fall.”

U.K. Minister for the Middle East and North Africa Hamish Falconer said he was “not in a position to give a detailed update” on the reports.

The War Zone cannot independently verify Tugendhat’s claim.

In the UK House of Commons, Tom Tugendhat, the Conservative MP and Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, asked Hamish Falconer, the Labour MP for and Minister for the Middle East and North Africa, to respond to reports that Russian cargo aircraft have recently landed in Iran… pic.twitter.com/XkKjRUiAI9

— Ounces (@OuncesApp) January 8, 2026

Yesterday, we noted that the protests are raging as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered new plans to attack Iran over concerns about its nuclear weapons ambitions and the rebuilding of the country’s military capabilities. The Israeli leader’s statement came days before Trump’s latest threat to take action against Iran.

Though no military movements by either Jerusalem or Washington appear imminent, these threats, as we reported yesterday, raise the question of whether either would risk an attack that could potentially galvanize the population behind the Ayatollah. A senior Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) official told us that these concerns are baked into any attack plans.

“If Israel were to strike Iran as an exploitation of an opportunity, namely a moment of Iranian weakness, such a move would, in my view, take place only with full coordination, cooperation, and backing from President Trump,” said the official, offering an unclassified assessment of the situation. “Israel, as I understand it, would not act independently in such a scenario.”

“Should Trump decide that the time is right and that it aligns with his own interests to confront Iran, he would likely give a green light for an Israeli strike,” the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. “There is a relatively high likelihood that Trump could pursue such a course, particularly in light of Khamenei’s repeated public disparagement of him, Trump’s explicit warnings to the Iranian leadership against harming protesting civilians, and the fact that the Iranian regime has now begun violently suppressing and killing protesters.”

Regardless of what actions will be taken in the future, the official concurred with Khamenei that outside influences have already been at work during these protests.

“It is reasonable to assume that covert operatives, alongside recruited and motivated Iranian citizens, are helping to organize, lead, and sustain the protests and the broader struggle against this totalitarian system,” he posited.

Update: 4:30 PM Eastern –

During a meeting with oil industry officials Friday afternoon, Trump repeated his stance that he could attack Iran if the crackdowns on protesters get out of hand.

“Iran is in big trouble,” Trump said. “It looks to me that the people are taking over certain cities that nobody thought were really possible just a few weeks ago. We’re watching the situation very carefully. I’ve made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved. We’ll be hitting them very hard where it hurts. And that doesn’t mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts. So we don’t want that to happen.”

Trump – “Iran’s in big trouble. It looks to me that the people are taking over certain cities that nobody thought were really possible… We’re watching… I made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved.” pic.twitter.com/GoA5zWEAkN

— Emily Schrader – אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) January 9, 2026

One site of the ongoing protests has been geolocated to Tehran.

Meanwhile, it appears that Iranian anti-regime demonstrators have practically taken over Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city. The regime’s security forces have retreated to just a few government buildings and don’t move from there.

BREAKING:

The Iranian anti-regime protesters have practically taken over Iran’s 2nd-largest city Mashhad.

The regime’s security forces have retreated to just a few government buildings and don’t move from there. pic.twitter.com/DEiEvr0kYc

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) January 9, 2026

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

US President Donald Trump has asked for at least $100bn (£75bn) in oil industry spending for Venezuela, but received a lukewarm response at the White House as one executive warned the South American country was currently “un-investable”.

Bosses of the biggest US oil firms who attended the meeting acknowledged that Venezuela, sitting on vast energy reserves, represented an enticing opportunity.

But they said significant changes would be needed to make Venezuela an attractive investment. No major financial commitments were immediately forthcoming.

Trump has said he will unleash the South American nation’s oil after US forces seized its leader Nicolas Maduro in a 3 January raid on its capital.

“One of the things the United States gets out of this will be even lower energy prices,” Trump said in Friday’s meeting in the White House.

But the oil bosses present expressed caution.

Exxon’s chief executive Darren Woods said: “We have had our assets seized there twice and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we’ve historically seen and what is currently the state.”

“Today it’s uninvestable.”

Venezuela has had a complicated relationship with international oil firms since oil was discovered in its territory more than 100 years ago.

Chevron is the last remaining major American oil firm still operating in the country.

A handful of companies from other countries, including Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Eni, both of which were represented at the White House meeting, are also active.

Trump said his administration would decide which firms would be allowed to operate.

“You’re dealing with us directly. You’re not dealing with Venezuela at all. We don’t want you to deal with Venezuela,” he said.

The White House has said it is working to “selectively” roll back US sanctions that have restricted sales of Venezuelan oil.

Officials say they have been coordinating with interim authorities in the country, which is currently led by Maduro’s former second-in-command, Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez.

But they have also made clear they intend to exert control over the sales, as a way to maintain leverage over Rodríguez’s government.

The US this week has seized several oil tankers carrying sanctioned crude. American officials have said they are working to set up a sales process, which would deposit money raised into US-controlled accounts.

“We are open for business,” Trump said.

Venezuela’s oil production has been hit in recent decades by disinvestment and mismanagement – as well as US sanctions. At roughly one million barrels per day, the country accounts for less than 1% of global supply.

Chevron, which accounts for about a fifth of the country’s output, said it expected to bolster its production, building on its current presence, while Exxon said it was working to send in a technical team to assess the situation in the coming weeks.

Repsol, which currently boasts output of about 45,000 barrels per day, said it saw a path to triple its production in Venezuela over the next few years under the right conditions.

Executives at other firms also said Trump’s promises of change would encourage investment and they were hoping to seize the moment.

“We are ready to go to Venezuela,” said Bill Armstrong, who leads an independent oil and gas driller. “In real estate terms, it is prime real estate.”

But analysts say meaningfully increasing production would take significant effort.

“They are being as polite as humanly possible, and being as supportive as they can, without committing actual dollars,” said David Goldwyn, president of the energy consultancy Goldwyn Global Strategies and former US state department special envoy for international energy affairs.

Exxon and Shell are “not going to invest single-digit billions of dollars, much less tens of billions of dollars”, without physical security, legal certainty and a competitive fiscal framework, Goldwyn said.

“It’s not really welcome from an industry point of view,” he said. “The conditions are just not right.”

While smaller companies might be more eager to jump in and help boost Venezuela’s oil production over the next year, he said those investments would likely hover in the $50m range – far from the “fantastical” $100bn figure that Trump has floated.

Rystad Energy estimates it would take $8bn to $9bn in new investments per year for production to triple by 2040.

Trump’s suggested $100bn of investment into Venezuela could have a major impact – if it were to materialise, said the firm’s chief economist, Claudio Galimberti.

He said companies would only be likely to invest on that scale with subsidies – and political stability.

“It’s going to be difficult to see big commitments before we have a fully stabilised political situation and that is anybody’s guess when that happens,” he said.

Additional reporting by Danielle Kaye

Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.

This week’s second caption reads:

NANTWICH, ENGLAND – MAY 24: A general view inside the former RAF Hack Green secret nuclear bunker on May 24, 2023 in Nantwich, England. Hack Green played a central role in the defence of Britain for almost sixty years. It was chosen during WW2 to protect the land between Birmingham and Liverpool from hostile attack and as a location for the new RADAR equipment. The bunker went on to be used for shelter and protection during the Cold War. As relations between East and West thawed many of the UK’s nuclear bunkers were sold off. The Secret Bunker is now privately owned by the Siebert family and is run as a museum trust. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

Also, a reminder:

Prime Directives!

• If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you. 
• If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
• No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like. 
• Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.  
• So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on. 
• Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.

‘Humiliated and dehumanised’

Kratos has confirmed to TWZ that the landing gear-equipped version of its XQ-58 Valkyrie drone being developed for the U.S. Marines will still be able to make rocket-assisted takeoffs from static launchers. This means the new addition to the stealthy Valkyrie family will retain a valuable degree of runway independence, though they will have to touch down on a runway at the end of their sortie. This opens up additional operational possibilities, though there are also tradeoffs.

TWZ had reached out to Kratos yesterday for more details about the CTOL version of the XQ-58. This followed the announcement of a team-up between that company and Northrop Grumman to develop and deliver Valkyrie variants to the U.S. Marine Corps under the Marine Air-Ground Task Force Uncrewed Expeditionary Tactical Aircraft (MUX TACAIR) Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. Kratos first disclosed that it was working on a Valkyrie with built-in landing gear last year, and the company now says it is aiming for a first flight early this year.

“The initial aircraft for the MUX TACAIR CCA contract will be landing gear version Valkyries, which can take off and land conventionally, or be booster-launched and conventionally landed,” a Kratos spokesperson told us.

When asked if this meant the CTOL Valkyrie would be able to use existing static launchers or if it would require a new launch architecture for boosted takeoffs, that spokesperson also responded: “the same.”

“Unfortunately, [we] cannot share more,” they added when asked for further details about the ongoing development of the CTOL version of the XQ-58, though they did confirm the early 2026 target timeframe for a first flight.

The baseline Valkyrie design, which first flew in 2019, does not have landing gear and is designed to take off via the rocket-assisted method from static launchers. The drone is then recovered via parachute at the end of a sortie.

Before announcing plans for the CTOL version, Kratos had also unveiled a special launch trolley that allows variants without landing gear to take off from traditional runways, though not land back on them.

Kratos Valkyrie Trolley Launch System

Details about the CTOL configuration of the XQ-58 and its comparative capabilities to existing variants remain limited. There have been indications that the landing gear-equipped type may be very similar in many respects to earlier types, which is underscored now by the confirmation that it can still be launched via rocket boosters. Whether or not the CTOL version is larger and, if so, to what degree, is still unknown. That it can make use of existing static launchers would limit how much bigger it could be, both dimensionally and weight-wise. It is also unclear if the parachute recovery system could be fitted, if desired.

“You’ll be able to do a conventional takeoff and land with retractable gear,” Steve Fendley, president of the Unmanned Systems Division at Kratos, had told Aviation Week last year. “You give up a proportion of your payload volume of your internal payload, but you can still maintain all the external.”

Runway-independent configurations do present their own limitations when it comes to maximum takeoff weight, and, by extension, payload capacity, as well as range. Kratos has told TWZ in the past that the versions of the XQ-58 without landing gear get a boost “in the 10s of % for both fuel and payload capacity” just when using the aforementioned launch trolley, and that this “enables quite an advantage for [the] amount of payload and range / endurance of the system.”

What we now know is that the CTOL version offers a single platform with the flexibility to take off from conventional runways, which could allow for heavier overall weights, or to use the existing rocket-boosted method from a much wider array of potential operating locations. In a real-world operational scenario, the drones could fly a rocket-boosted mission to start, recover on a runway at a tertiary site, and then continue to fly sorties from there, or be deployed elsewhere. This would combine the benefits of runway independence, including the difficulties imposed on enemies trying to target what could be widely distributed launch points, during an initial wave, and the advantages offered by normal runway-centric tactical air operations for follow-on sorties.

Furthermore, the runway-independent launch capability would allow forward deployments virtually anywhere for use in that first-day-of-war context. It should be remembered here that Kratos has also previously shown a model of a static launcher for the Valkyrie that fits discreetly inside a standard shipping container.

An XQ-58 that can land like any other fixed-wing aircraft on a runway offers advantages for resetting the drones and getting them back into the fight. It takes far more time and effort to get runway-independent types ready for relaunch after they touch down via parachute. That method of landing also relies on airbags to cushion the impact, and a failure of that element of the system can lead to significant damage. There is, of course, always the potential for accidents while operating from traditional runways. Regardless, a Valkyrie that uses a runway should be able to achieve significantly higher sortie rates.

The CTOL variant’s flexibility could also have benefits outside of a tactical scenario. TWZ has previously noted that a landing gear-equipped version would be easier to integrate, overall, with other tactical air assets that rely on traditional runways, which would also be relevant for training and other day-to-day peacetime activities. That being said, a significant portion of the Marine Corps’ future CCA fleets, as well as those that the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy plan to acquire and field, may not ever be daily fliers.

There are still tradeoffs, especially if the CTOL version of the Valkyrie otherwise remains unchanged in many respects from previous versions. Kratos has been steadily working to expand the performance envelope of the XQ-58 design, but it has been made clear that some degree of internal volume has to be sacrificed to give the drone built-in landing gear. Even if the CTOL design is larger overall, the revised internal configuration could create different payload restrictions that might be further magnified when employed in a runway-independent mode. It’s also important to point out that the rocket-launched method makes use of expendable boosters, a steady supply of which is then required to support those operations.

The rocket boosters can be seen falling away after the launch of an XQ-58 in the video below.

Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie Test Flight

For the moment, the U.S. Marine Corps looks to be trying to find the optimal mix of flexibility for its future operational Valkyrie fleets. However, a key advantage of the XQ-58 has historically been its total lack of any need for a runway. TWZ has repeatedly highlighted the importance of that kind of total runway independence to the Corps’ still-evolving expeditionary and distributed concepts of operations, which focus heavily on the rapid establishment of forward operating bases in far-flung locales, especially remote islands with limited infrastructure. The Marines expect these operations to be regularly conducted within an adversary’s so-called “weapons engagement zone,” further underscoring the critical need for very high degrees of operational flexibility to survive, let alone fight effectively.

The Marine Corps could still acquire additional versions of the XQ-58 down the line, including fully runway-independent types, or add completely different designs to its future CCA fleets, giving it a further mix of capabilities. The Valkyrie was designed from the outset to be highly modular and to use open architecture systems, making it easier to integrate new and improved capabilities and functionality to existing examples, as well.

“The uncrewed weapons systems under development [as part of the MUX TACAIR program] will enhance Marine Corps Aviation’s lethality and ability to support the Stand-in Force (SiF) by delivering air-to-ground, reconnaissance, and Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities,” according to official budget documents released last year. “The Marine Corps will use a spiral approach for capability insertion into TACAIR. MUX TACAIR Increment I will rapidly accelerate the time between development and fielding, ensuring rapid and relevant capability delivery of a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) to the warfighter.”

The growing array of options for launching and recovering XQ-58 variants is something that could also easily appeal to other potential operations beyond the Marine Corps. The only other known operator of the Valkyrie currently is the U.S. Air Force, which oversaw the type’s first flight in 2019 and has been using the drones primarily for test and evaluation purposes since then.

XQ-58A Valkyrie Demonstrator Inaugural Flight

Kratos told Aviation Week yesterday that there is another opportunity for XQ-58 sales in the United States, but did not elaborate. The company is not among those known to be under contract now to develop concepts for carrier-based CCAs for the U.S. Navy. It may be one of the nine firms currently competing in the second phase, or Increment 2, of the U.S. Air Force’s CCA program, which that service has so far declined to name. Kratos was notably absent from Increment 1 of that program and had previously expressed interest in taking part in Increment 2.

Valkyrie has also begun making inroads overseas, and Kratos is now working with Airbus on a version for the German Air Force. Whether that will be a landing gear-equipped variant or not is unknown.

More details about the CTOL version of the XQ-58 may emerge as Kratos gets closer to a first flight and as work on the initial prototype for the Marine Corps proceeds. It is very possible, if not probable, that the first example of the CTOL configuration will be the one in the works now for the Marines. The service has previously said it hopes to receive its first MUX TACAIR CCA prototype before the end of the year.

If nothing else, it has been confirmed now that the CTOL type will have an added layer of flexibility by retaining a runway-independent launch capability.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

A 60-year-old man has admitted sending abusive social media messages to England footballer Jess Carter.

Nigel Dewale sent the posts to Carter’s TikTok account during the Uefa Women’s Euro 2025 tournament last summer, which defending champions the Lionesses went on to win.

The messages included a derogatory reference to Carter’s race and suggested people with brown skin were “murderers” and “groomers”.

Dewale, of Great Harwood in Lancashire, appeared at Blackburn Magistrates’ Court on Friday where he pleaded guilty to sending a malicious message via a public communications network between 19 and 23 June last year.

He also pleaded guilty to possession of an offensive weapon, namely an extendable baton, in a private place in February.

Magistrates adjourned the case until 25 March for pre-sentence reports and warned Dewale, of Prospect Street, that all sentencing options were open including prison.

Dewale was granted unconditional bail.

Central defender Carter plays her club football for American side Gotham FC in the National Women’s Soccer League, having previously represented Chelsea and Birmingham City in the UK.

The 28-year-old, from Warwick, previously said she was stepping away from social media after she was subjected to racist abuse online during the tournament.

Lancashire Police said the UK Football Policing Unit launched an investigation in July and traced the messages to Dewale, who was arrested in August.

Mark Roberts, Chief Constable for Cheshire Police and the national lead for football policing, said: “Dewale’s comments were totally abhorrent, they caused emotional distress for Miss Carter and her family and I welcome the guilty plea entered today.

“We have been clear that hate crime online or in person, is not acceptable and as we have shown in this case, you cannot hide behind a social media profile to post vile comments and spread hate.”

US forces have seized another tanker in the Caribbean Sea, officials say, as the Trump administration continues its efforts to control exports of Venezuelan oil.

The tanker, the Olina, is on multiple countries’ sanctions lists and the fifth vessel to be seized by the US in recent weeks.

The US is using the seizures to pressure Venezuela’s interim government and remove the so-called dark fleet of tankers from service. Officials say this fleet consists of more than 1,000 vessels that transport sanctioned and illicit oil.

“Once again, our joint interagency forces sent a clear message this morning: ‘there is no safe haven for criminals,'” said the US military’s Southern Command on Friday.

The vessel reportedly left Venezuelan waters late on Sunday, after the US seized President Nicolás Maduro in an early morning raid.

Officials said Friday’s operation was carried out before dawn by Marines and sailors in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, and that it was seized after it “departed Venezuela attempting to evade US forces”.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem wrote on X that it was “another ‘ghost fleet’ tanker ship suspected of carrying embargoed oil”.

Noem also shared a video appearing to show troops dropping onto a ship from a helicopter, and described the operation as “safe” and “effective”.

Maritime risk company Vanguard Tech said the vessel was attempting to break through the US naval blockade in the Caribbean. It had been sailing under a false flag registered to Timor-Leste, according to the International Maritime Organization.

Vanguard Tech added that the vessel’s location tracker was last active 52 days ago, northeast of Curacao, and that “the seizure follows a prolonged pursuit of tankers linked to sanctioned Venezuelan oil shipments in the region”.

The US had sanctioned the Olina last January, then named Minerva M, accusing it of helping finance Russia’s war in Ukraine by moving Russian oil to foreign markets.

Earlier this week, the US said it seized two other tankers linked to Venezuelan oil exports in “back-to-back” operations in the North Atlantic and Caribbean.

One of them was the Russian-flagged Marinera seized with the help of the UK Royal Navy, which gave logistical support by air and sea.

The Marinera is allegedly part of shadow fleet carrying oil for Venezuela, Russia and Iran, breaking US sanctions. US officials said that Marinera was falsely flying the flag of Guyana last month, which made it stateless.

US authorities alleged the second tanker – the M/T Sophia – was “conducting illicit activities”.

Experts have told BBC Verify that under UN international maritime law, authroties can board a stateless vessel.

President Donald Trump says Venezuela – which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves – “will be turning over” up to 50 million barrels of oil worth some $2.8bn (£2.1bn) to the US.

The oil, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would be sold “in the marketplace at market rates” and that the US would control how the proceeds were dispersed “in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people”.

One of the co-owners of the Swiss bar where 40 people died in a fire on New Year’s Eve has been detained.

Sources told Swiss media that Jacques Moretti, a French national, was a potential flight risk.

The blaze at Le Constellation bar in Crans-Montana left 116 people injured. Many of the victims were aged under 20.

It emerged this week that the bar in the ski resort had not undergone safety checks for five years.

Jacques Moretti and his French wife Jessica, who own the bar together, had been placed under criminal investigation by Swiss prosecutors.

They are both suspected of manslaughter by negligence, bodily harm by negligence and arson by negligence, the prosecutors’ office in Valais said.

The prosecutors have said they believe the fire started when people celebrating the New Year raised champagne bottles with sparklers attached, setting light to sound-insulating foam on the ceiling of the basement bar.

On Friday, Switzerland staged a minute of silence on a national day of mourning for the victims of the fire.

Church bells then rang across the country for five minutes.

Trains and trams came to a halt and Zurich airport briefly paused operations.

At a local commemoration staged in Crans-Montana, there was a standing ovation for firefighters.

The club hierarchy is aware of the current disconnect between Frank and Spurs fans, arguably exacerbated by his high-risk strategy of going public with criticism after keeper Gugliemo Vicario was booed, then cheered ironically, after making an error in the home reverse against Fulham at the end of November.

Frank described Vicario’s treatment as “unacceptable” and not the actions of “true Spurs supporters”. Bold – but an approach that rarely goes down well, or ends well.

The fact that the discontent was so public brought Frank’s turmoil into sharper relief, with travelling supporters making their feelings known loudly in Monaco after a goalless draw in the Champions League, in a fierce reaction to another 0-0 stalemate at his former club Brentford, then again when Spurs went down at Bournemouth.

Van de Ven and other players appeared to confront supporters at The Vitality Stadium following Antoine Semenyo’s late winner, with Romero later launching his public broadside at the club.

Frank defended Romero, saying he is “a young leader”, when in fact the Argentine – too often a disciplinary and playing liability – is 27 and a World Cup winner for his country.

He appeared to treat Romero with kid gloves when a heavier punishment could easily have been in order, only increasing the impression, publicly at least, that Frank struggles to impose himself on his players.

And at the heart of it all is a stodgy playing style which has not won enough matches, or favour with Spurs fans.

The timid five-man defence Frank employed in the 4-1 hammering in the north London derby at Arsenal on 23 November was another point of heavy contention, while Spurs still show no signs of true identity.

Spurs – as a club and fanbase – is currently a joyless place.

They are reasonably placed at 11th in the Champions League table, with a chance of reaching the top eight to automatically qualify for the knockout phase, but there has been no improvement in the Premier League.

They are currently 14th on 27 points, while after 21 games last season they were 13th with 24 points under Postecoglou.

Frank’s Brentford played long and quick to put opponents under pressure with the quality of forwards Ivan Toney, Bryan Mbeumo and Yohan Wissa to carry out the game plan successfully. Frank’s communication and strategy was clear.

None of this has happened at Spurs, leading Frank to crisis point before the FA Cup meeting with Villa.

World number one Luke Littler has signed a record sponsorship deal for a darts player worth a reported £20m.

The 18-year-old, who claimed the £1m prize for winning the World Championship earlier this month, has signed a 10-year agreement with Target Darts.

Target has described the deal as “the largest agreement in darts history between a brand and a player” and PA Media reports that it is worth up to £20m with potential bonuses and add-ons.

BBC Sport has contacted Littler’s representatives and Target Darts for comment.

Littler has won two world titles and already has 10 major titles to his name.

“Target has believed in me from day one,” said Littler, who is also managed by the company.

“From my playing career to my product range, we’ve built everything together and I’m really excited to commit to our partnership long-term and see where we can take this next.”

Scotland’s resident doctors have called off a planned four-day strike over pay.

They had been set to go on the first national walkout staged by NHS workers on Tuesday, having accused ministers of going back on promises over pay.

But after further negotiations, the British Medical Association union is to suspend the strike and put a fresh pay offer to members – and is recommending that it is accepted.

Health secretary Neil Gray said it was “great news” which would avoid disruption to patient care.

Resident doctors – who used to be called junior doctors – make up about 42% of all Scotland’s doctors and range from newly qualified doctors to those with 10 years or more experience.

Members will now consider an offer of a 4.25% pay rise in 2025-26, followed by a 3.75% increase in 2026-27.

The pay deal offered by the Scottish government matches one already accepted by nurses and other healthcare staff, and was previously rejected by the BMA last year.

However it now comes alongside a separate package of contractual reform.

Gray said the deal had been struck following “days of intensive and constructive talks” between the government and the union.

He added that total investment in the offer – covering both pay and contract reform over the two-year period – will be £133m.

Dr Chris Smith, who chairs BMA Scotland’s resident doctors committee, said just before Christmas that discussions between the union and the government had been “useful” and welcomed a “constructive approach”.

Scotland has been the only part of the UK to have avoided strike action by NHS workers.

A previous proposed strike in Scotland in the summer of 2023 was called off at the last minute after a deal was agreed.

The aid is earmarked to help support both countries in border stabilisation efforts, demining and tackling drug trafficking and cyberscams.

The United States has announced it will provide $45m in aid to help solidify a fragile truce brokered by President Donald Trump between Thailand and Cambodia.

Michael DeSombre, the US assistant secretary for East Asia, said on Friday that the US would offer $20m to help both countries combat drug trafficking and cyberscams, which have become a major concern in Cambodia.

DeSombre was meeting with senior Thai and Cambodian officials in Bangkok and Phnom Penh on Friday and Saturday to discuss implementation of the peace accords, according to a senior State Department official.

DeSombre also said $15m would be given for border stabilisation efforts to help support people displaced by the recent fighting, as well as $10m for de-mining and unexploded ordnance clearance.

“The United States will continue to support the Cambodian and Thai governments as they implement the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords and pave the way for a return to peace, prosperity and stability for their people and the region,” DeSombre said in a statement.

DeSombre was referring to an agreement signed between the two countries in Trump’s presence during his October visit to Malaysia, then head of the ASEAN regional bloc.

Border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand flared up again last month, after the collapse of a truce brokered in July by Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to end a previous round of conflict.

The Southeast Asian neighbours agreed on another ceasefire on December 27, halting 20 days of fighting that killed at least 101 people and displaced more than half a million on both sides.

Thailand accused Cambodia of violating this latest ceasefire, though later retracted the accusation, with the Thai military saying the Cambodian side had contacted them to explain the so-called violation was an accidental fire.

Cambodia, meanwhile, has called on Thailand to pull its forces out of several border areas that Phnom Penh claims as its own.

The nations’ longstanding conflict stems from a dispute over France’s colonial-era demarcation of their 800km (500-mile) border, where both sides claim territory and several centuries-old temple ruins.

Trump has listed the conflict as one of several wars he says he has solved as he loudly insists he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump, on taking office, drastically slashed foreign aid, including for months freezing longstanding assistance to Cambodia for de-mining, with the administration saying it will provide money only in support of narrow US interests.

US citizens have been targeted by financial fraud operations taking place at scam centres throughout Southeast Asia.

Thailand is a longtime US ally, while the US has sought to improve relations with Cambodia to try to woo it away from strategic rival China.

DEVELOPING STORYDEVELOPING STORY,

The STC, which Saudi Arabia says is backed by the UAE, launched an offensive against Yemeni gov’t troops in December.

Yemen’s main southern separatists ‍have decided to disband following talks in Saudi Arabia, the secretary-general of the organisation has announced.

The Southern Transitional Council (STC) Secretary-General Abdulrahman Al-Subaihi said in a broadcast on Yemeni television on Friday that the dissolution of the group was taken to preserve peace and security in the south and in neighbouring countries.

He praised “the measures taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the solutions it has provided that meet the needs of the people of the South”.

However, there was no immediate ‍comment from those members of the separatist group who are not taking part in the ‍talks in Riyadh.

The STC had said it had lost contact with all members ‍of the delegation in Riyadh, indicating a split was emerging within the group.

A feud between Saudi Arabia and the UAE that came to light after the STC, which Riyadh says is backed by Abu Dhabi, launched an offensive against Saudi-backed Yemeni government troops in December.

On Thursday, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen said the STC leader Aidarous ‌al-Zubaidi had fled to the UAE via Somaliland after skipping the talks in Riyadh, accusing the UAE of smuggling him out of the country.

More to come…

On Saturday, United States military forces carried out a dramatic strike in Venezuela that resulted in the capture and forcible removal of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. They were flown to New York and are now in federal custody. Maduro appeared in federal court on drug and weapons charges and pleaded not guilty. Several governments, international legal experts and United Nations officials have described the military operation as an illegal “kidnapping” and a breach of international law. The UN secretary-general warned that it sets a “dangerous precedent”, undermining foundational norms of sovereignty under the UN Charter.

Yet, as Washington justifies its operation primarily with rhetoric about oil and narcotics, a deeper inspection reveals another dynamic: This was first and foremost an ideological battle, shaped by domestic political incentives in the US – in particular the strategic influence of Florida’s electorate and its political elite.

Oil is not the prime motive

The mainstream narrative frames Venezuela’s enormous oil reserves – officially among the largest proven in the world at roughly 298 billion to 303 billion barrels – as the core strategic prize. But a closer, evidence-based analysis shows the immediate economic rationale to be weak.

US crude imports from Venezuela, once significant, have dwindled to about 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of 2024, representing less than 4 percent of US crude imports. By contrast, imports from Canada dominate, accounting for roughly 60 to 63 percent of US crude import needs, and US production of light crude has risen sharply, reducing dependence on foreign sources. This shift undermines claims that Venezuelan oil alone is a strategic imperative.

Why does Venezuelan crude matter at all? The answer lies in its composition. Venezuelan oil is heavy and sour, the type that many US Gulf Coast refineries were designed to process. This, however, reflects refinery configuration rather than any compelling immediate strategic case. Furthermore, Venezuelan oil infrastructure has deteriorated over years of underinvestment with output falling from about 3.5 million bpd to roughly 1 million bpd by 2025, and a meaningful revival would require many years of sustained and consistent investment. Markets reacted only modestly to the capture of Maduro with global oil prices remaining relatively stable, suggesting that oil was not the main driver of the operation.

Not drugs either: Pretext vs reality

US officials have cited drug trafficking and “narcoterrorism” as part of the justification for the intervention. Maduro and other senior Venezuelan officials are indicted in the US on charges linked to alleged cocaine trafficking, and these accusations have been reiterated in court. However, research by international agencies and independent analysts suggests that, while Venezuelan territory is used as a transit route, it is not a major source of the drugs entering the US, which are overwhelmingly produced and trafficked through Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This gap between the scale of the drug trade and the rationale invoked has led many analysts to view the narcotics argument as a pretext rather than a primary driver of the operation.

Florida, ideology and domestic political incentives

A more persuasive rationale emerges when the domestic political incentives shaping US foreign policy are examined, particularly the role of Florida’s electorate and elite networks. With 31 electoral votes, Florida remains a pivotal state in presidential elections, where narrow margins mean even modest shifts among key constituencies can determine national outcomes.

This political reality is reinforced by Florida’s large and politically mobilised Latino communities. Cuban American voters have long prioritised anti-communist foreign policy positions while Venezuelan American communities, many of whom settled in the state over the past decade, have expressed strong opposition to authoritarian leftist governance in Caracas. Political scientists note that these constituencies constitute a significant voting bloc in closely contested elections, giving political elites strong incentives to adopt hardline positions against leftist regimes that resonate with these voters.

At the centre of this dynamic stands Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state and a Florida native whose political biography is deeply rooted in opposition to leftist governments in Latin America. Rubio’s family fled communist Cuba, and he has consistently championed confrontational policies towards socialist and authoritarian regimes in the region. Reports suggest that, during negotiations, Maduro offered concessions on oil and economic matters that could have been commercially beneficial, but advisers aligned with Florida’s political interests reportedly pushed for a harder line, prioritising ideological confrontation over economic pragmatism.

Florida’s political ecosystem also includes influential donor networks that have historically supported hawkish foreign policy positions, including well-organised pro-Israel constituencies with leverage at state and national levels. In recent months, high-profile visits by Israeli leaders to Florida and sustained engagement with US political figures have reinforced ideological alignments that frame regimes perceived as hostile to Israel or aligned with its adversaries as challenges requiring decisive responses. The convergence of electoral incentives, ideological commitments and elite networks helps explain why US policy towards Venezuela has been shaped as much by domestic political drivers as by external strategic interests.

Lessons for the Middle East

The implications for Middle Eastern actors are profound.

First, international law appears weakened. The US capture of a sitting head of state without multilateral authorisation underscores a willingness to sidestep international legal norms when domestic political imperatives are prioritised. The ineffectiveness UN Charter’s prohibition on the use of force absent Security Council approval or clear self-defence appears to have been discounted, eliciting global concern.

Second, the Middle East’s strategic relevance persists, albeit in an evolving context. While global energy markets are less dependent on Middle Eastern oil than in prior decades, other factors – capital flows, counterterrorism cooperation, strategic geography and enduring security partnerships – maintain the region’s importance. Intensifying US-China competition and Washington’s concern over closer China-Middle East ties will likely continue to anchor US engagement in the region. Israel, for its part, is expected to sustain robust lobbying efforts in Washington and European capitals to preserve its strategic relationships.

Yet the Venezuela episode illustrates that alliances predicated chiefly on energy security can be fragile and ideological and domestic political drivers can abruptly reshape foreign policy priorities. Middle Eastern states must, therefore, pursue a calibrated diplomatic strategy: engaging the US where interests converge while hedging against abrupt shifts driven by internal political calculations.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

A mountain of rubbish collapsed at a landfill in the central Philippines on Thursday, killing a 22-year-old woman and leaving more than 30 people missing, authorities have said.

Rescuers pulled 12 injured sanitation workers from debris at the Binaliw Landfill in Cebu City, who were later hospitalised.

Many of the missing are believed to be workers at the landfill. The mayor of Cebu told news outlet ABS-CBN that it may be difficult to reach survivors because of the potential for further collapse.

The cause of the collapse is still unclear, but Cebu City councillor Joel Garganera said it was likely the result of poor waste management practices.

Some 300 people from various government agencies and civilian groups have been deployed to the privately-owned landfill. Several excavators, ambulances and fire trucks have also been seen on site.

“All response teams remain fully engaged in search and retrieval efforts to locate the remaining missing persons,” Cebu Mayor Nestor Archival said in a Facebook post on Friday.

“This is not like other landslides that you can just excavate. If you pull from the top, the bottom is soft. Let’s say there is a person there, when you get the debris, it might get worse,” he said, ABS-CBN reported.

Cebu City councillor Joel Garganera said the incident may have happened suddenly, but was likely a result of poor waste management practices.

Operators had been cutting into the mountain, mining the soil, and then piling garbage to form another mountain of waste, Garganera told local newspaper The Freeman.

“It’s not a sanitary landfill. It’s already an open dumpsite,” he said.

Families are waiting for updates on their loved ones trapped in the debris.

One Binaliw resident, Belen Antigua, told Rappler that her son had survived the landslide but she was still waiting for her other relatives to be found. Another said that families had been gathered at the landfill to look for their children since Friday morning.

“I could not understand my emotions. They said those trapped are calling for help, so there is a possibility that my brother is still there,” Michelle Lumapas, whose brother works at the landfill, told ABS-CBN.

The Binaliw landfill is about 15 hectares (37 acres).

Landfills are common in major Philippine cities like Cebu, which is the trading centre and transportation gateway of the Visayas, the archipelago nation’s central islands.

The Sino-Pakistani JF-17 Thunder has emerged as a surprise candidate for Saudi Arabia’s next fighter jet, according to a recent report. While a mutual defense pact signed with Pakistan would help open the door to the transfer of JF-17s to Saudi Arabia, the fighter faces very strong competition. Furthermore, it isn’t clear if the Saudis even would want a light fighter like this at all, especially considering it could cause a rift with the U.S. at a critical time. In the past months, the kingdom has been offered the U.S.-made F-35, as you can read about here, and has been linked with several other multirole fighters.

According to a report today from Reuters, talks are now underway between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, with a view to the kingdom obtaining an undisclosed number of JF-17s. These would be paid for by converting some of the billions of dollars of Saudi loans taken out by Islamabad, a sign of the deepening relationship between the two countries, including at a military level. The report cites two different Pakistani sources, one of whom says the talks are limited to the JF-17, while the other claims that the jets are the “primary option,” but that different military equipment could also be made available.

Reportedly, the deal would be worth $4 billion in terms of offsetting the loan, while Saudi Arabia would also spend $2 billion on top of that.

This week, Pakistan’s Air Chief Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu was in Saudi Arabia to discuss what the Pakistani military described as “bilateral defense cooperation, the regional security environment, and future avenues of collaboration” with his Saudi counterpart, Lieutenant General Turki bin Bander bin Abdulaziz.

The JF-17 was developed jointly by China’s Chengdu and the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), and the first prototype took to the air in 2003. The aircraft is powered by a single Russian-designed RD-93 turbofan engine, an improved version of the RD-33 that is found in the twin-engined MiG-29 Fulcrum.

The Thunder has been steadily improved since the first series-built JF-17s began to come off the PAC line at its Kamra facility in 2008. After the first 50 JF-17s were delivered to Pakistan, production switched to the enhanced JF-17 Block 2 version, with improved avionics, strengthened wing roots for additional stores carriage, and an in-flight refueling probe, among other changes.

The latest Block 3 version of the jet has an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, as well as an improved fly-by-wire flight-control system, infrared search and track system, helmet-mounted display, and a larger holographic wide-angle head-up display for the pilot.

Pakistan Air Force JF-17 participates in Virtual Air Tattoo 2021

In terms of performance and specifications, the Block 2 version has a maximum takeoff weight of a little over 27,000 pounds, a maximum speed of Mach 1.6, and an unrefueled range of 840 miles. It can carry 3,300 pounds of stores carried on seven external hardpoints. This puts it broadly in the same class as the Saab Gripen C/D.

The unclassified version of an annual Pentagon report to Congress on China’s military stated that, as of May 2024, the JF-17 had been sold to Azerbaijan, Burma, and Nigeria — as well as Pakistan. The report also says that, as of 2024, negotiations were underway regarding a possible JF-17 transfer to Iraq.

That same story stressed heavily the growing presence of the JF-17, as well as other Chinese-made fighters, on the export market, as you can read more about here.

Last month, Pakistan reportedly struck a weapons deal worth more than $4 billion with the Libyan National Army, which is also said to include JF-17. Additionally, Pakistan has held talks with Bangladesh on the possible sale of the same jets.

As for Saudi Arabia, the claimed interest in the JF-17 comes after it signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan last September. This is the latest development in a long-running security partnership between the two nations, which has seen extensive provision of defense equipment to the kingdom, as well as training.

“The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” the office of the Pakistani prime minister said in a statement about the pact. This raised questions of whether the Pakistani nuclear umbrella might even be extended to protect Saudi Arabia, too.

For its part, Saudi Arabia has regularly provided Pakistan with economic support. In 2018, Riyadh agreed on a support package for its ally that included a loan worth $6 billion. Since then, it has allowed Islamabad to defer payments.

Were it to happen, a deal involving JF-17s and potentially other arms could help balance the books between the countries.

While the JF-17 is less advanced than other fighters that Saudi Arabia has been looking at buying, most notably the F-35, the Thunder’s status has been enhanced by claims of its performance during Pakistan’s clashes with India last year. Pakistan has long pitched the JF-17 as a cheaper and more sustainable fighter option, but now it is combat-proven too, although the results of its performance against the Indian Air Force are hard to verify.

Last month, it became clear that the Trump administration intended to sell up to 48 F-35s to Saudi Arabia, which marked a significant policy shift. Previously, Washington had been unwilling to export these jets to Arab states in the region, for fear of upsetting the strategic balance in relation to Israel — also an F-35 operator.

As we noted at the time:

Even without the F-35, the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) operates an extremely modern and advanced fleet of fighters. It received 84 of the new-build F-15SA, which was the most advanced variant of the Strike Eagle family available until the appearance of the Qatari F-15QA and the U.S. Air Force’s F-15EX Eagle II. Meanwhile, the 68-strong fleet of earlier F-15S aircraft has been upgraded locally to a similar standard, known as F-15SR (for Saudi Retrofit).

The RSAF also received 72 Eurofighter Typhoons. Older, but still capable, are around 80 British-supplied Panavia Tornado IDS swing-wing strike aircraft, which continue in service in the strike role.

Other fighters have been linked with a sale to Saudi Arabia, as it seeks to further boost its fighter fleet.

For a long time, more Typhoons were seen as the most likely option, but a potential deal has been frustrated by Germany — which has a stake in Eurofighter via the German arm of Airbus — which has consistently blocked further sales of the jets to Saudi Arabia, citing human rights concerns.

Saudi Arabia also entered talks to buy 54 Dassault Rafale multirole fighters, as we reported back in 2023.

More recently, Boeing confirmed that it was offering the F-15EX Eagle II to Saudi Arabia.

The JF-17 is far less capable than these options, but it is not irrelevant, especially in its Block 3 version with AESA radar and Chinese-made PL-15 air-to-air missiles.

At the same time, the Thunder would be a far less expensive option and could be acquired in greater numbers, creating a high-low force mix.

Still, the idea that Saudi Arabia would actually be interested in Pakistan’s proposal seems remote due to multiple factors.

Whether the JF-17 could be operated alongside the F-35 is highly questionable, on the grounds that its sensitive technologies might be exposed to Chinese intelligence. On the other hand, even without the JF-17, Saudi Arabia has long been a customer of Chinese-made defense equipment, including drones and ballistic missiles. But these are not fighter platforms with sensors that can give away critical capabilities, as well as weapon systems that need highly integrated tactics across a force in order to be effective. The very idea that a deal like this could even threaten the long-awaited acquisition of the F-35 seems to disqualify it on its face.

There is also the question of why Saudi Arabia would even want this aircraft when they have access to far more capable fighters that accommodate the weapons and networks their force already uses? A high-low mix may hold some relevance, but we have seen no indication that Saudi Arabia believes this to be the case.

It also comes at a time of extremely close ties between the kingdom and the U.S., with the Trump administration seeing Saudi Arabia as a top ally and economic partner. Risking that for a cheap fighter aircraft seems remote.

At the same time, Islamabad sees arms sales, including to non-traditional clients, as critical to helping address its economic troubles.

“Our aircraft have been tested, and we are receiving so many orders that Pakistan may not need the International Monetary Fund in six months,” Pakistani Minister of Defense Khawaja Asif recently told local media.

However, as has been the case in earlier Saudi procurements, the most important dimension in selecting a new fighter may well be the political one.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

In this episode of the “Decline & Fall” podcast, Alexander Mckay and Kit Klarenberg look at the US empire’s abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the absurd criminal case and the legal challenges ahead.

Mckay and Klarenberg also place the attack on Venezuela within the bigger picture of the Trump administration’s foreign policy.

Source: Decline and Fall

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has vetoed a bill that would have reduced the prison sentence of his right-wing rival and predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of plotting a coup.

On Thursday, Lula followed through with his promise to block the legislation, which had passed Brazil’s opposition-controlled Congress last year.

“In the name of the future, we do not have the right to forget the past,” Lula wrote in a series of social media posts, saying that it would have benefitted “those who attacked Brazilian democracy”.

The veto came on the third anniversary of the 2023 attack on the Three Powers Plaza in the capital of Brasilia, where government buildings representing the presidency, Congress and the Supreme Court stand.

On January 8 of that year, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed the buildings in an apparent attempt to provoke a military response that would remove Lula from power.

In marking the anniversary of the attack, Lula called on Brazilians to stand up for their young democracy, which began after a period of violent dictatorship in the late 20th century.

“January 8th is marked in history as the day of democracy’s victory. A victory over those who tried to seize power by force, disregarding the popular will expressed at the ballot box. Over those who have always defended dictatorship, torture, and the extermination of opponents,” Lula wrote online.

“The attempted coup on January 8, 2023, reminded us that democracy is not an unshakeable achievement.”

Bolsonaro’s sentence

The January 8 attack caused millions of dollars in property damage and dozens of injuries, as police and protesters clashed in the government plaza.

The incident evoked comparisons to the violent riot at the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, where supporters of President Donald Trump attempted to disrupt the certification of his 2020 election defeat.

Likewise, Bolsonaro, a former army captain, had refused to concede his defeat to Lula after a narrow loss in the 2022 elections.

Rather, he and his allies had argued that Brazil’s electronic voting machines were susceptible to fraud, and they challenged the election results in court. Their petition, however, was thrown out for its “total absence of any evidence”.

Still, many of Bolsonaro’s supporters backed his claims and took to the streets to protest the election results. The weeks surrounding Lula’s inauguration in January 2023 were fraught, with reports of a bomb threat and an attack on police headquarters in Brasilia.

Prosecutors later accused Bolsonaro and his allies of leading a criminal conspiracy to overturn the election results.

One of the options the defendants allegedly weighed was to declare a “state of siege” in Brazil, which would allow the military to take control and new elections be held. Another option was reportedly to assassinate Lula and his running mate, Geraldo Alckmin.

Bolsonaro has pleaded not guilty to the charges and denied any wrongdoing, framing the accusations instead as a political hit job.

Still, in September, he was sentenced to 27 years in prison after being found guilty on counts including attempting a coup, causing damage to public property, attempting the violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, participation in a criminal enterprise, and the deterioration of a listed national heritage site.

He began his prison term in November, after he was found to have damaged the ankle monitor used to ensure he was not a flight risk.

Weighing October’s election

Conservative politicians, however, have decried the prison sentence as excessive and called for its reduction.

Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo has petitioned the Trump administration in the US to intervene on behalf of the imprisoned ex-president, and his eldest child, Flavio Bolsonaro, even hinted he might suspend his 2026 presidential bid if his father were released.

On December 10, Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies passed legislation that would reduce the sentences of nearly 1,000 people linked to the January 8 attack, including Bolsonaro.

A week later, on December 17, the Senate followed suit, sending the leniency bill to the president for his signature.

But Lula had repeatedly pledged to reject the bill, risking the possibility that Brazil’s Congress could override his veto.

“ This is a bill that really is a litmus test in Brazilian politics,” Gustavo Ribeiro, a journalist and founder of The Brazil Report, told Al Jazeera. “Conservatives overwhelmingly supported it, while liberals are adamantly against it.”

Still, Ribeiro described the bill as a compromise between Brazil’s centre-right and far-right forces.

“The centre-right tried to work a sort of a middle-of-the-road solution that is not full amnesty but would allow Bolsonaro to leave incarceration after two years, in what we call in Brazil a semi-open prison sentence,” he explained.

He sees Brazil’s general election in October as a significant factor in Congress’s passage of the bill, noting that Bolsonaro remains a popular figure on the right.

“Because Bolsonaro has such a big clout with conservatives, many in Congress – many right-of-centre lawmakers – fear that if they do not lend their full support to any cause that Bolsonaro espouses, they will lose support,” Ribeiro said.

Lula is seeking a fourth term as president in October’s election, and he is expected to face Bolsonaro’s son Flavio at the ballot box.