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The UNIFIL announced that an investigation has concluded that three Indonesian peacekeepers were killed by a shell fired from an Israeli tank.

According to UNIFIL, analysis of the impact site and recovered shrapnel confirmed that the projectile was a 120mm shell fired from an Israeli Merkava tank, launched from the east toward the town of Taybeh.

The mission noted that it had previously provided the Israeli army with the coordinates of all its positions and facilities on 6^th March and again on 22^nd March, as part of efforts to reduce risks to its personnel.

In a related incident, UNIFIL reported that the Israeli army detained one of its peacekeepers after intercepting a logistics convoy, before releasing him less than an hour later following urgent contacts by UN command.

The mission condemned the detention as a “flagrant violation of international law,” stressing that any obstruction of peacekeeping operations breaches UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which guarantees freedom of movement for UN forces in southern Lebanon.

Separately, UNIFIL confirmed that another peacekeeper was killed on 29^th March when a shell struck a UN position near Adshit al-Qusayr, with another seriously wounded. At the time, the source of the shell was unknown, prompting the investigation.

The findings come amid ongoing Israeli aggression on Lebanon and heightened risks facing UN peacekeeping forces operating in the area.

Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator in ceasefire talks between the United States, Iran and Israel, hosting negotiations in Islamabad. The announcement of the initial ceasefire by Shehbaz Sharif signaled Islamabad’s unexpected diplomatic centrality in a high stakes conflict.

This role is not incidental. It reflects Pakistan’s long standing regional ties, security concerns, and strategic positioning between major global and regional powers.

Historical Leverage with Iran
Pakistan’s mediation draws on decades of close ties with Iran, shaped by shared borders, religious linkages, and past strategic cooperation. Since 1947, both states have supported each other in regional disputes, creating a baseline of trust that allows Islamabad to act as a credible interlocutor.

Despite occasional tensions, Iran continues to view Pakistan as a state willing to engage without overt hostility, making dialogue politically feasible.

Security Driven Diplomacy
Pakistan’s involvement is rooted in hard security calculations. Instability in Iran could spill over into Balochistan, where separatist movements already challenge state authority. A fragmented Iran risks amplifying cross border militancy and separatist narratives.

Additionally, Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power makes regional de escalation a priority, as prolonged conflict increases the risk of external pressure on its own strategic assets.

Military Influence and US Access
The central role of the military, particularly Asim Munir, has strengthened Pakistan’s credibility with Donald Trump. Direct engagement between military leadership and Washington has enabled Islamabad to maintain influence within US strategic circles.

This relationship enhances Pakistan’s ability to act as a bridge, especially under an administration that values strong security partnerships.

Emerging Strategic Alignments
Pakistan’s deepening ties with Saudi Arabia and parallel coordination with the United States suggest the emergence of a loose strategic alignment. At the same time, Islamabad maintains close relations with China, which has a vested interest in Gulf stability due to energy dependence.

This dual alignment uniquely positions Pakistan as a mediator acceptable to multiple competing blocs.

Implications
Pakistan’s role signals a shift in regional diplomacy, where mid tier powers can leverage geography and relationships to shape major geopolitical outcomes. Successful mediation could elevate Pakistan’s global standing, while failure risks exposing its strategic vulnerabilities.

The talks also highlight how regional conflicts are increasingly multi layered, involving overlapping alliances and competing security priorities.

Analysis
Pakistan is not acting as a neutral peace broker but as a strategic actor pursuing its own stability. By engaging all sides, it reduces the risk of regional spillover while enhancing its diplomatic relevance.

Its ability to maintain simultaneous ties with Washington, Tehran, Riyadh and Beijing gives it rare flexibility. However, this balancing act is inherently fragile. Any perceived bias could undermine trust and derail negotiations.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s mediation reflects a broader geopolitical reality: influence in today’s conflicts belongs not only to superpowers, but to states that can navigate between them.

With information from Reuters.

A dispute has emerged between Kenya and the United Nations over allegations of sexual exploitation and abuse linked to a UN backed security mission in Haiti. The force, largely composed of Kenyan police officers, was deployed in June 2024 to stabilise a country where armed gangs control much of the capital.

A UN report, based on findings from its Human Rights Office, concluded that four allegations of abuse were substantiated. Kenya has formally rejected these findings, asserting that its own internal investigation found no evidence to support the claims. This divergence has opened a deeper debate over credibility, jurisdiction, and the persistent problem of accountability in international interventions.

Conflicting Investigative Authority

At the core of the dispute lies a fundamental question: who has the authority to determine truth and accountability in multinational missions. The United Nations, through its human rights mechanisms, operates as an external oversight body, positioning itself as impartial and norm driven. Kenya, by contrast, asserts sovereign control over its personnel, emphasising that its internal inquiry was independent and shared with relevant stakeholders.

This clash reflects a structural ambiguity built into international peace operations. While missions are authorised or supported by the UN, enforcement power over individual personnel remains with contributing states. As a result, accountability mechanisms are fragmented, allowing for conflicting conclusions such as those seen in this case.

Historical Context and Institutional Credibility

The controversy is intensified by Haiti’s history with international peacekeeping missions, particularly the MINUSTAH deployment between 2004 and 2017. That mission was marred by widespread allegations of sexual exploitation and abuse, many involving vulnerable populations, including children. Despite the scale of accusations, prosecutions were rare, largely dependent on the willingness of troop contributing countries to act.

This legacy casts a long shadow over current operations. Allegations, whether proven or disputed, are not assessed in isolation but through a lens of accumulated mistrust. The UN therefore faces pressure to demonstrate that oversight mechanisms have improved, while Kenya is equally motivated to avoid reputational damage associated with past failures of the peacekeeping system.

Power, Reputation, and Strategic Stakes

Kenya’s firm rejection of the UN findings is not only a legal position but also a political one. As the primary contributor to the mission, Nairobi has invested significant diplomatic capital in presenting itself as a stabilising force in Haiti. Accepting the UN’s conclusions would risk undermining both domestic legitimacy and international standing.

For the United Nations, the stakes are similarly high. Its credibility as a guarantor of human rights depends on its willingness to investigate and publicly report abuses, even when doing so creates friction with member states. Backing down or appearing inconsistent would weaken its already challenged authority in overseeing multinational operations.

Victims and the Accountability Gap

Amid institutional disagreement, the position of alleged victims becomes increasingly precarious. When investigative bodies reach opposing conclusions, the likelihood of justice diminishes. The reliance on troop contributing countries to prosecute their own personnel has historically resulted in limited accountability, reinforcing perceptions of impunity.

This gap is not merely procedural but systemic. Without a unified mechanism for enforcement, findings risk becoming symbolic rather than consequential. The repetition of such disputes suggests that structural reforms within the peacekeeping system remain incomplete.

Implications

The dispute signals potential strain in cooperation between Kenya and the United Nations at a critical moment for the Haiti mission. Operational effectiveness may be affected if trust between the UN and its primary personnel contributor erodes. At the same time, the controversy could deter other countries from participating in similar missions, given the reputational risks involved.

More broadly, the case highlights enduring contradictions in international peace operations. The system depends on state contributions but lacks full authority over them, creating a persistent tension between sovereignty and accountability.

Analysis

This episode underscores a recurring paradox in global governance. The United Nations is tasked with upholding universal norms, yet it relies on sovereign states that retain ultimate control over their agents. When allegations of abuse arise, this division of authority becomes a fault line.

Kenya’s rejection of the UN findings is therefore not an anomaly but an expression of this structural tension. Both sides are operating within their respective logics: the UN prioritising normative legitimacy, and Kenya defending sovereign jurisdiction and institutional credibility.

The result is not simply disagreement over facts but a deeper contest over who defines accountability in international interventions. Until this question is resolved, similar disputes are likely to recur, particularly in high risk environments where oversight is most needed and most difficult to enforce.

With information from Reuters.

Mérida, April 8, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Energy multinational Shell is reportedly in advanced negotiations with the Venezuelan government to expand its operations in the country’s offshore natural gas fields

According to Reuters, the London-based oil and gas giant is seeking rights to exploit four major fields in Venezuelan waters near the maritime border with Trinidad and Tobago.

Shell wants to move beyond the 4.2 trillion cubic feet (tcf) Dragon field project, which it is set to develop alongside Trinidad’s National Gas Company (NGC) after receiving a 30-year license from the Venezuelan government in December 2023.

The company is currently targeting three additional fields that, together with Dragon, comprise the Mariscal Sucre project: Río Caribe, Patao, and Mejillones. The four fields represent approximately 12 tcf of reserves combined.

Shell likewise aims to accelerate operations in the 7.3 tcf Loran field, which forms part of the Loran-Manatee cross-border reservoir with Trinidad. The firm is already developing the Manatee side in Trinidadian waters, and spokespeople referred to Loran, which remains largely untapped, as an “attractive investment opportunity.” 

If the deals are finalized, Shell would gain access to a combined resource base of approximately 20 tcf of Venezuelan natural gas, with plans to process it into liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Trinidadian facilities.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan stated during the late March CERAWeek conference in Houston that the company could reach a final investment decision (FID) on at least two Venezuelan projects “before the end of this year, if afforded the right fiscal and legal frameworks.” Sawan added that there is “a long way to go” before the projects launch but that he was “encouraged” by recent progress.

A primary hurdle in the current negotiations is the status of the Río Caribe and Mejillones fields, which had partial ownership stakes previously assigned to Rosneft and then transferred to Russian state-owned Roszarubezhneft in 2020. Both fields have remained largely untouched.

In a statement to Reuters, a Shell spokesperson confirmed that the Russian part-ownership is “a problem” but expressed confidence in overcoming it.

For its part, the government of Trinidad and Tobago has maintained a supportive stance toward the integration of Venezuelan gas into its domestic infrastructure. Port of Spain possesses significant idle capacity at its Atlantic LNG facility, partly owned by Shell, due to declining domestic production in recent years.

The Trinidadian Energy Chamber recently expressed optimism that the expanded Shell projects in Venezuelan waters would “boost [Trinidadian] exports and generate much-needed foreign currency.”

However, the recent negotiations have drawn internal scrutiny. Former Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine noted that while the deals will benefit Trinidad’s LNG exports, it effectively transitions the country into a gas importer.

The acceleration of talks for natural gas concession projects in Venezuelan waters follows the January 2026 reform of the Caribbean nation’s Organic Hydrocarbon Law. The pro-business overhaul granted private corporations significant benefits in terms of reduced fiscal responsibilities and increased control over operations and sales.

In addition to offshore natural gas ventures, Shell additionally signed agreements to take over light and medium-crude projects in the Punta de Mata Division in eastern Venezuela.

For the Dragon Project, the proposed development plan involves drilling subsea wells in Venezuelan waters and tying them to the Hibiscus platform off the north coast of Trinidad. The Loran field is expected to be linked to the Manatee platform.

Alongside Shell, BP had also previously progressed in talks to exploit the Cocuina-Manakin joint field. Both energy corporations recently received US Treasury licenses to negotiate contracts with Caracas under restricted conditions.

The Nicolás Maduro government had suspended all joint natural gas projects with Trinidad in late 2025 after the Kamla Persad-Bissessar government openly supported the Trump administration’s Caribbean military build-up ahead of the January 3 military strikes against Venezuela. Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores were kidnapped by US special forces.

Edited by Ricardo Vaz in Caracas.

In another step toward what would be a major boost to the drone-killing capabilities of Royal Air Force (RAF) Eurofighter Typhoons, BAE Systems test fired its air-to-air optimized variant of the laser-guided 70mm Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) rockets from one of the jets. The move comes as the RAF seeks a lower-cost option to counter drones at a time when its Typhoons and those from Gulf nations have been tasked with fighting off Iranian one-way attack munitions during the war with Iran. This is all on the heels of continued successful use of these rockets by U.S. fighters that The War Zone was the first to document.

BAE Systems, which makes the weapon and is the British partner in the Eurofighter consortium, said it conducted the trial on an unspecified date at its flight test development center in Warton, Lancashire. The sortie involved a RAF Typhoon test and evaluation aircraft launching “a successful strike on a ground-based target at a UK military testing range,” the company said in a statement.

After hitting a ground target with the APKWS, the next step for the Typhoon will be testing them on air-to-air targets, BAE noted. A special proximity fuzed FALCO version APKWS is used for engaging aerial drones, but it an also be used against ground targets. Typhoons are already equipped with targeting pods that can laser designate aerial and ground targets for APKWS.

APKWS, The Innovation Continues

“This trial with the APKWS laser-guidance kit on Typhoon demonstrates a game-changing capability and a cost-effective solution that would enhance Typhoon’s already impressive range of weapons capabilities,” Richard Hamilton, Managing Director – Air Operations at BAE Systems’ Air sector, said in a statement.

The announcement of the test firing comes after BAE confirmed last September that feasibility studies for the integration of APKWS on the Typhoon were underway. At the time, BAE was investigating how it could improve the Typhoon’s counter-drone role and what it would take to make the APKWS system work on the fighters.

Speaking at the 2025 Defense and Security Equipment International (DSEI) exhibition in London, Paul Smith, BAE Systems head of Typhoon Strategy Delivery, said the company was trying to ascertain the level of risk and integration maturity Typhoon customers want when adapting the jets for the counter drone role.

The proliferation of one-way attack drones, especially in the Ukraine war and in the Middle East, has sparked a mad dash to find cheaper ways for fighters to shoot them down. As we have frequently noted, there is a huge mismatch between the cost of the drones and the interceptors used to defeat them.

For example, the latest variants of the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), which also arm the Typhoon, cost around $1 million each, while current-generation AIM-9X Sidewinders each have a price tag around $450,000. The standard short-range missiles on the Typhoon — IRIS-T and ASRAAM — are similarly expensive.

In comparison, the unit cost for the standard APKWS II guidance section has typically been between $15,000 and $20,000. The 70mm rocket motors run in the $1,000 to $2,000 range. The price point for warheads fluctuates more widely, given the breadth of options available, as you can read about more here.

In addition to offering Eurofighters a cheaper option for countering drones, APKWS rockets would significantly increase each fighter’s magazine depth. The standard pod holds seven rockets. It would take the place of a weapons pylon that would otherwise normally be loaded with just one air-to-air missile.

An image shared by BAE shows two APKWS pods, one under each wing for a total of. 14 rockets. The jet would still be able to carry six additional air-to-air missiles.

Air-to-air APKWS capability is being rapidly added to an increasing number of U.S. military aircraft. U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle, F-16C Viper, and A-10 Warthog combat jets are known to be cleared to employ the weapon. USMC’s F/A-18C/D Legacy Hornets will receive it too. As we have pointed out in the past, certain individual pylons on U.S. fighters, like the F-16C, F-15E, and A-10 can accommodate multiple pods at once. Meanwhile, Strike Eagle can notably carry up to 42 rockets in six pods on just two stations, and can still carry eight more air-to-air missiles, as can be seen below.

For the U.S., the rockets have been so successful that they are “our primary weapon against a drone,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Derek France, head of Air Forces Central (AFCENT), the service’s top command in the Middle East, told TWZ on the sidelines of the Air & Space Forces Association’s 2025 Air, Space, and Cyber Conference yesterday. “We’ve had multiple shoot-downs with it.”

The U.S. experience has played a key role in stoking RAF’s interest in the rockets, according to BAE. The Typhoon test firing will give the RAF more information about how these rockets could perform on its own fighters.

“This activity, supported by RAF, will provide valuable insights into how a low-cost precision weapon could be integrated in the aircraft, particularly counter UAS weapons, where affordable interception options are needed,” the company explained. “It also forms part of a range of capability enhancements planned for Typhoon to increase the aircraft’s potency in current and future combat air operations.”

Ukraine is also using APKWS with its F-16s in the air-to-air role as they grapple with the constant threat of long-range one-way attack munitions.

Typhoons have swatted down Iranian drones during the war with Iran. In addition to a joint RAF-Qatari unit, they are operated by Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kuwait, as well. Royal Air Force Typhoon and F-35 fighter fighters, supported by military helicopters, shot down several Iranian drones targeting Middle Eastern countries, the United Kingdom‘s Defense Ministry (MoD) stated on X. 

“UK Typhoons and F-35 jets, supported by Voyager and Royal Navy Merlin and Wildcat helicopters, have continued their defensive missions over the Eastern Mediterranean, Jordan, Bahrain, and the UAE,” the MoD added. The RAF also deployed fighters to Cyprus to protect it from drone attacks.

As they have with the U.S., APKWS rockets could give all these Typhoon operators a cheaper option for countering drones compared to their current loadouts and greater magazine depth, allowing more engagements per sortie.

It is unclear how Germany, Italy and Spain – the other three Eurofighter partner nations that are responsible for developing, building, and sustaining the aircraft – view adding APKWS to its fighters. However, those discussions are apparently underway.

At the Paris Air Show last June, Eurofighter CEO Jorge Tamarit Degenhardt confirmed that the counter-drone mission was one of growing importance for Typhoon customers.

Since then, as we have seen in Ukraine and especially in the Middle East where Iran launched hundreds of drones prior to a ceasefire enacted yesterday, the need for affordable counter-drone systems is only going to increase.

Other air arms in Europe are following a similar path, including testing similar, locally produced laser-guided counter-drone rockets systems on their fighters.

With all this in mind, there is little doubt that laser-guided rockets adapted for the air-to-air role are quickly becoming the counter-drone weapon of choice for fighter inventories, a tactical shift that is likely to spread around the globe.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

A man trapped for nearly two weeks in a flooded gold mine in Sinaloa, Mexico, has been rescued by military divers. Structural failure and flooding caused the mine to collapse, killing two other workers.

A 13-year-old girl on Snapchat captured the moment Israel began its assault on Beirut. In the video posted on her mother’s social media, she is seen running with her father to hide from the blast. On the first day of the US-Iran ceasefire, Israel said it bombed Lebanon 100 times in just 10 minutes, killing hundreds.

Hundreds of vehicles have driven through Istanbul to condemn the ‘lawless aggression’ of the US and Israel. The convoy, carrying Palestinian and Turkish flags, is calling for international accountability in light of relentless attacks on Lebanon, Iran and Gaza.

Protesters have blocked roads outside the Israeli embassy in London, condemning Israel’s violent strikes on Lebanon which killed hundreds across the country on the day the US-Iran ceasefire was announced. Many demonstrators also expressed solidarity with Iranians and Palestinians who have all suffered under Israeli bombardment.

US Vice President JD Vance says Lebanon is not part of the US-Iran ceasefire, stressing that neither Washington nor Israel agreed to that. After Pakistan said Lebanon was included, Israel killed hundreds of people when it carried out around 100 strikes across Lebanon in just 10 minutes.

The rollout of the Trump administration’s defense budget for the 2027 Fiscal Year is underway, with approximately $1.5 trillion in total funding being requested. This is a whopping $445 billion above what the U.S. military has received for the current fiscal cycle. That is a more than 40 percent year-over-year increase, which includes major planned boosts for aircraft, munitions, missile defense, shipbuilding, and other programs.

The White House and the Pentagon began releasing details about the proposed Fiscal Year 2027 defense budget last week. The $1.5 trillion “topline” request includes a base budget of $1.1 trillion and “$350 billion in additional mandatory resources through reconciliation,” per the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

“The Budget builds upon the historic $1 trillion overall Defense topline for 2026,” according to an OMB fact sheet. “The mandatory funding protects key priorities such as providing flexibility in maturing technology for delivery and allowing for acquisition approaches for portfolios of capabilities that broaden opportunities for new entrants.”

It should be noted that the Pentagon has yet to release more granular documents for its Fiscal Year 2027 budget request, which often contain important additional context and nuance.

Still, there are already many significant takeaways about the proposed defense budget for the next fiscal cycle, which we will dive into below.

Aircraft

• The latest budget request includes major Air Force funding related to Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones, including nearly $1 billion in procurement money to actually begin buying them.
• There is also $822 million in a separate procurement line for “Collaborative Combat Aircraft Mods,” terminology that typically refers to planned upgrades and other work on tangential capabilities.
• The proposed budget includes almost $1.4 billion more for continued CCA research and development, as well.
• The Air Force is currently testing two designs, General Atomics’ YFQ-42A Dark Merlin and Anduril’s YFQ-44A Fury, under the first phase of its CCA program, and there continues to be a possibility that it could purchase production examples of both. The US Marine Corps and US Navy also have their own CCA programs, which are intertwined with each other, as well as the Air Force’s effort.

• The budget documents appear to show a year-over-year cut of more than $4.2 billion to the B-21 Raider bomber procurement account, but the reasons for this are unclear. How many B-21s the Air Force has ordered to date and what the current estimated unit cost of the aircraft is are unknown. In February, the Air Force announced plans to accelerate B-21 production, which may be further bolstered by the opening of a second production line, and said its target fleet size of at least 100 bombers remained unchanged.
• The Fiscal Year 2027 request for additional research and development funding through the Long Range Strike-Bomber (LRS-B) program account is largely unchanged from last year ($2.86 billion compared to $2.7 billion in Fiscal Year 2026).

B-21 Takeoff and Landing

• The Air Force is also seeking funding for another 24 F-15EX Eagle II fighters, but there are no details as yet about whether there may be any new changes to the planned total fleet size for those aircraft.
• There are no requested funds for research and development or procurement related to the E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning and control aircraft for the Air Force. Congress blocked a plan the Pentagon and the Air Force put forward last year to cancel the E-7 program and purchase more of the E-2D Hawkeye radar planes flown by the Navy in the interim, ahead of the fielding of future space-based capabilities, as you can read more about here.

• A previous budget line for the Air Force’s Next Generation Air-refueling System (NGAS) effort, which has been exploring stealthy tankers and other future aerial refueling capabilities, is notably closed out in the Fiscal Year 2027 proposal. Just over $13 million is included in what appears to be a new line for Advanced Tanker Systems, though how this relates to prior work on NGAS is unclear.
• The Army is seeking $2.14 billion for continued research and development of its new MV-75A tiltrotor, also known as the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA), a roughly $610 million year-over-year increase. The Army is currently rushing the type into operation on a very truncated timeline.

Munitions

• The LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program’s engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) budget is cut by around $300 million in the new proposed spending plan. As of February, Sentinel was still in the midst of a years-long restructuring effort after suffering huge cost overruns and delays.

• The Air Force and Navy are collectively asking for nearly $2.94 billion in procurement funds for new AIM-260 air-to-air missiles, also known as Joint Advanced Tactical Missiles (JATM), up from $894 million in Fiscal Year 2026. This is a sign the missile is entering full production.
• There is a new Air Force line requesting nearly $404 million for the procurement of Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missiles (HACM).
• The service is also requesting $452 million to procure AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapons (ARRW), on top of just over $362 million received last year. ARRW is another hypersonic weapon that the Air Force had previously said it planned to cancel amid an initially checked test record.

• The PAC-3 MSE total includes Navy plans for a first-time procurement of 405 of those interceptors. This very likely points to movement forward on a new sea-based capability via the integration of those missiles into the Mk 41 Vertical Launch System.
• The proposed defense budget for the 2027 Fiscal Year includes notable increases in the procurement of various other missiles and munitions already in service.
• The Army is notably seeking funding to boost year-over-year purchases of Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) short-range ballistic missiles from 108 to 1,134. PrSM made its combat debut in recent operations against Iran.

Shipbuilding

• The Navy is requesting approximately $65.8 billion to procure 34 ships in Fiscal Year 2027. This is the largest shipbuilding budget, when adjusted for inflation, since 1962, according to USNI News.
• This includes 18 so-called “Battle Force” ships, as well as 16 other vessels. In Navy parlance, the Battle Force refers collectively to the service’s fleets of aircraft carriers, submarines, major surface combatants, and amphibious warfare ships, as well as combat logistics vessels and some other types of auxiliaries.
• The Navy is seeking funds for the procurement of two Virginia class attack submarines and one Columbia class ballistic missile submarine.
• On the surface warfare front, funds for an Arleigh Burke class destroyer and the first new FF(X) frigate are included in the proposed budget for the 2027 Fiscal Year.

Golden Dome and the push toward space

• The Fiscal Year 2027 budget proposal includes $17.5 billion in new funding for the Golden Dome missile defense initiative. Golden Dome is a very large effort with many different components, including planned new sensor architectures and space-based interceptors. The Missile Defense Agency has already established a contracting mechanism with a pool of more than 1,000 vendors to support work related to Golden Dome.

• The Space Force is a bigger winner in the new budget proposal, overall, with its topline rising nearly 80 percent, year-over-year, from $40 billion to $71.2 billion.
• The Space Force’s 2027 Fiscal Year budget request includes a new procurement line for Space-Based Air Moving Target Indicator (AMTI) capability, for which the service is seeking more than $7 billion.
• There is also just over $1 billion in requested procurement funds for Ground Moving Target Indicator (GMTI) capability.
• Space-based AMTI and GMTI sensor systems are chief among the surveillance capabilities the U.S. military wants to increasingly push into orbit, as you can read more about here. Historically, AMTI and GMTI coverage has been provided by aircraft, and space-based developments factor directly into the aforementioned discussion about the future of the E-7 Wedgetail.
• There is also an all-new procurement line item requesting $1.56 billion for Proliferated Low Earth Orbit Satellite Communications (SATCOM).

It should be stressed here that the Pentagon’s Fiscal Year 2027 budget request is just that. Members of Congress routinely intercede to add or remove funding for different programs, and it typically takes months for an annual defense spending plan to be passed and signed into law, and then even more time for money to be appropriated to pay for it. In addition, this latest proposed defense budget relies heavily on legislators signing off on additional funds through the reconciliation process.

The Trump administration is expected to also make a separate request for billions more in supplemental funding related to operations against Iran, including to restock key munitions. Officials originally expected to seek $200 billion for that purpose, but more recent reports say that figure could now be down to between $80 and $100 billion.

As already noted, our understanding just of different aspects of the defense budget proposal for the 2027 Fiscal Year itself will evolve in the coming weeks as more granular details are released.

Still, the $1.5 trillion defense spending plan the Trump administration has put forward already sets an important tone as it seeks to substantially increase funding for a host of key programs. At the same time, its unprecedented size could present challenges to getting it approved.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Liverpool went into their Champions League last-16 tie against PSG last season with a 74.4% win rate under Slot after 43 games.

Since being knocked out on penalties, the Reds have won just 49.2% of their past 59 games, while their loss percentage has more than trebled.

Slot has retained the support of Liverpool‘s owners and has credit in the bank after last season’s Premier League triumph – but that is likely to change if they do not qualify for the Champions League.

The Reds either have to win this season’s competition – which seems unlikely after Wednesday’s performance – or qualify through finishing in the top five in the Premier League.

They are currently fifth – one point ahead of sixth-placed Chelsea.

“Slot is not going to get sacked for losing 2-0 at PSG,” said Warnock.

“They are one of the best teams in Europe. But the defeats are stacking up, and there’s the danger there could be more damage next week.

“It is going to suit PSG next week because Liverpool have to go at them.

“They can’t play like this and sit in at Anfield, when they need goals.

“But what does Slot do? Liverpool‘s system tonight screams ‘you are better than us’. If he opens up, they leave themselves vulnerable and they could get battered.”

Captain Virgil van Dijk accused the team of “giving up” against City last weekend, when Liverpool conceded four times in the space of 20 minutes either side of half-time.

After losing to PSG, he insisted the team would not give up on their Champions League ambitions.

“We shouldn’t forget we play against the European champions of last season and you see the quality they have in the games that they played already this season,” he said.

“We have to be absolutely spot on with everything we do.

“Hopefully our fans can play a big part in that as well. I’ve been through many special evenings at Anfield, I’m very lucky and privileged, and our fans, that’s the backbone of the club and hopefully they can be there for us again.”

Americans are split on whether to trust Donald Trump’s instinct-driven approach to the Iran conflict. The range of opinions reflects a deeper unease about a president bypassing his cabinet and Congress in favour of gut decisions. Al Jazeera’s Heidi Zhou-Castro speaks with US citizens at the White House.

The US president has stepped back from the brink.

After calling for the destruction of an entire civilisation, it appears Donald Trump is in the mood for peace.

He has confirmed that Israel and the United States will stop attacking Iran for two weeks.

And while it’s not clear if the agreement will lead to lasting peace, what is certain is that the US – and the world stage – have been changed.

So how has the US been shaped by Trump’s war on Iran? How has the world order?

And can any of it be walked back?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Sanam Vakil – Director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House

Robert Pape – Professor of political science at the University of Chicago

Kim Wehle – Professor of constitutional law at the University of Baltimore Law School

Israeli forces have launched an intense bombardment across Lebanon, killing hundreds of people, hours after a two-week ceasefire was announced in the United States-Iran war.

Lebanon’s Civil Defence said at least 254 people were killed and 1,165 others were wounded in air strikes that targeted areas in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, Mount Lebanon, Sidon, and several villages in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli military said that the attack was its largest coordinated assault on Lebanon since it started a new military operation in the country on March 2, “targeting more than 100 Hezbollah command centres and military sites”.

In a written statement, the head of Lebanon’s syndicate of doctors, Elias Chlela, urgently called for “all physicians from all specialities” to head to any hospital they could to offer help, with one of Beirut’s biggest hospitals saying it needed donations of all blood types.

Here’s how the world has reacted to the attacks:

Lebanon

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called the attacks on densely populated areas a “full-fledged war crime.”

⁠“Today’s crime, coinciding with the ceasefire agreement declared in the region — an agreement that Israel and its political and security apparatus have failed to uphold — is a serious test for the international community and a blatant challenge to all international laws, norms, and conventions, which Israel violates daily through its unprecedented campaign of human assassination in modern history,” Berri said.

“It is also a test for all Lebanese — political, religious, and civil leaders — to unite in solidarity with the martyrs. May God have mercy on the martyrs, grant a speedy recovery to the wounded, and protect Lebanon,” he added.

Hezbollah

The Lebanese armed group said it had a “right” to respond to the attacks.

“We affirm that the blood of the martyrs and the wounded will not be shed in vain, and that today’s massacres, like all acts of aggression and savage crimes, confirm our natural and legal right to resist the occupation and respond to its aggression,” Hezbollah said in a statement.

Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah told the news agency Reuters that the Israeli strikes were “a grave violation of the ceasefire”, adding there would be “repercussions for the entire agreement” if they continued.

Israel

Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israel “insisted on separating the war with Iran with the fighting in Lebanon in order to change the reality in Lebanon”.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also told a news conference that Israel would “continue to strike” Lebanon as the US-Iran ceasefire did not apply to Hezbollah.

Iran

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it will respond to the attacks on Lebanon if Israel does not stop the assault.

“We issue a firm warning to the United States, which violates treaties, and to its Zionist ally, its executioner: if the aggression against beloved Lebanon does not cease immediately, we will fulfil our duty and deliver a response,” the IRGC said in a statement carried on Iran’s state-owned TV channel, using a reference to Israel.

In a post on X, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the terms of the ceasefire were “clear and explicit: the US must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.”

“The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the US court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments,” he added.

Qatar

The foreign ministry condemned the “brutal series” of Israeli attacks on Lebanon that had killed hundreds of people, calling the attacks a “dangerous escalation and a flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the sister Lebanese Republic, the rules of international humanitarian law, and United Nations Security Council Resolution (1701).”

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on the international community to fulfill its responsibilities by compelling the Israeli occupation authorities to halt their barbaric massacres and repeated attacks on Lebanon, and to hold them accountable for respecting international covenants and laws,” a statement posted on X read.

It added that Qatar was in “full solidarity” with Lebanon.

Egypt

The Ministry of Foreign Affiars called Israel’s attacks on Lebanon had a “premediatated intent” to undermine regional and international efforts to reduce escalation.

The ministry added that the attacks were an attempt by Israel to drag the region into “total chaos”.

Spain

In a post on X, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said Netanyahu’s “contempt for life and international law is intolerable” in light of the attacks.

“It’s time to speak clearly: – Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire. – The international community must condemn this new violation of international law. – The European Union must suspend its Association Agreement with Israel. – And there must be no impunity for these criminal acts,” Sanchez said.

Italy

Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said he spoke to the Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and expressed solidarity for the “unjustified and unacceptable attacks he is suffering from Israel.”

“We want to avoid there being a second Gaza. We will reiterate this concept to the Israeli Ambassador as well, whom I have summoned to the Farnesina. We condemn the bombings on the Lebanese civilian population, including the gunfire incidents suffered by our UNIFIL [UN Interim Force in Lebanon] troops, for which we continue to demand guarantees of total safety. We must absolutely avoid any further expansion of the conflict that would jeopardise the ceasefire in Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” Tajani added.

United Nations

The deputy spokesperson for United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Farhan Haq, said the UN “strongly condemns” Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.

“The United Nations strongly condemns the strikes by Israel across Lebanon that resulted in significant civilian casualties,” said Haq.

“We continue to call on all sides to avail themselves of diplomatic channels, cease hostilities”, and use the new US-Iran ceasefire as an opportunity to prevent further loss of life,” he added.

The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just under an hour before U.S. President Donald Trump’s Wednesday deadline to hammer the country with an unprecedented level of airstrikes was due to expire, with Tehran announcing it will temporarily reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are now claiming victory in the conflict, which lasted more than a month and disrupted global financial markets, with oil prices driving sharply higher.

Trump told AFP that the agreement last night marked a “total and complete victory” for the United States.

Iran also portrayed the ceasefire as a huge success, stating it had agreed to begin talks with Washington on Friday in Pakistan as part of efforts to bring the conflict to an end. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council conditionally accepted the two-week ceasefire if attacks against Iran are halted.

“The enemy has suffered an undeniable, historic and crushing defeat in its cowardly, illegal and criminal war against the Iranian nation,” said a statement from the Supreme National Security Council.

“Iran achieved a great victory.”

What is the Pentagon saying?

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine gave a press conference today.

Hegseth, who had previously described “a fragile truce,” says that Iran “begged for this ceasefire” and that Operation Epic Fury “decimated” Iran’s military.

He says the country’s missile programme has been “functionally destroyed” and that Iran’s navy “is at the bottom of the sea.” Hesgeth adds that “we [the US] own their skies.”

The U.S. military carried out 800 strikes on Tuesday night, Hegseth says, destroying Iran’s defense industrial base.

The ceasefire with Iran is a “fragile truce,” @VP says. Iran’s foreign minister is negotiating, but others in the country have been “lying” about points agreed upon.
“If the Iranians are willing in good faith to work with us, I think we can make an agreement,” Vance said in…

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) April 8, 2026

Should it be decided, the U.S. military is also ready to resume action against Iran.

In the statement on Truth Social, Trump said that the United States would be just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure everything goes well,” suggesting a continuing beefed-up military presence in the region. 

“Let us be clear, a ceasefire is a pause, and the joint force remains ready, if ordered or called upon,” Caine told the press conference today.

While the Israeli Channel 12 reported that U.S. Air Force KC-135 refueling tankers are starting to leave Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv, publicly available flight-tracking data suggested the aircraft took off and then returned to the same airport.

Israeli Channel 12 reports that U.S. Air Force KC-135 aerial tankers are departing the Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv.

The airport has been serving as a major staging base for US aerial refueling ops throughout the war with Iran.pic.twitter.com/Q9bOfUMxK3

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) April 8, 2026

המריאו וחזרו. מה זה אומר שהם עזבו??? בניגוד לדיווח על עזיבת מתדלקים אמריקניים, בצה”ל אומרים שארה”ב שומרת על יציבה אזורית, ולא מפנה מתדלקים מישראל. הגורם אמר שארה”ב שומרת על מוכנות גבוהה באזור למקרה שהפסקת האש תקרוס https://t.co/0L9oAqmjBq pic.twitter.com/CbSjhLZA0u

— איתי בלומנטל 🇮🇱 Itay Blumental (@ItayBlumental) April 8, 2026

What are the Iranian demands?

Trump said that Iran had proposed a “workable” 10-point peace plan. According to Iranian state media, the 10-point proposal includes various conditions that the United States had rejected in the past.

Among the key Iranian demands are controlled transit through the Strait of Hormuz, coordinated with the Iranian military. The plan would also require the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran, and release of all frozen Iranian assets. It is unclear if the United States will actually cede to any of these latter points.

Making matters more confusing, a U.S. official said today that the 10-point ceasefire plan published by Iran is not the same set of conditions that were agreed to by the White House for pausing the war.

“The document being reported by media outlets is not the working framework,” the senior official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

NEW: A White House official says that the 10-point peace plan that Iran publicly released on Wednesday differs from the plan that Trump said was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” – NYT pic.twitter.com/oH9R0bTKif

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) April 8, 2026

Since then, Trump has also emphasized the fact that the nature of the points in the agreement is a closely guarded secret, and published claims about them “have absolutely nothing to do with the negotiation.”

“There is only one group of meaningful ‘POINTS’ that are acceptable to the United States, and we will be discussing them behind closed doors during these Negotiations…” – President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/PP4jlW8LAJ

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 8, 2026

How real is the ceasefire?

After the ceasefire was announced, there were aid-raid warnings in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.

Israel said it was also intercepting missiles and striking back at sites in Iran.

Ceasefire day 1:

Israel took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced.

Kuwait reports that more than two dozens drones were launched by Iran since 8am.

UAE is currently under an Iranian missile attack.

Iran, via state media, reports strikes…

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) April 8, 2026

Kuwait, in particular, today reported a barrage of drone attacks targeting oil infrastructure, desalination facilities and power plants.

Kuwait ministry of defense reports a wave of drone attacks targeting oil infrastructure, desalination facilities and power plants. https://t.co/Ao8CGFvICG

— Geoff Brumfiel (@gbrumfiel) April 8, 2026

However, there are signs that some U.S. airstrikes may have been called off as soon as the ceasefire announcement was made, with at least one B-52 bomber returning to RAF Fairford, England, with weapons still loaded under the wings.

While it remains unclear to what degree Iran is taking the ceasefire seriously, there is also the reality that many Iranian military units have been fighting with a decentralized command and control in order to make its forces more resilient after lessons learned from the 12-Day War. Meanwhile, whatever ability to maintain oversight and authority over these units that is still in place has been significantly incapacitated in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and by other means, as well as an internet blackout. Iran also mentioned yesterday that getting the word about the ceasefire agreement to military units will take time.

Hegseth: Iran would be wise to find a way to get the carrier pigeon to their troops out in remote locations to know not to shoot missiles—we’re prepared.

Reporter: THEY’RE STILL FIRING BALLISTIC MISSILES

Hegseth: Excuse me, why are you so rude? pic.twitter.com/4PMqMHX9qZ

— Acyn (@Acyn) April 8, 2026

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported today that Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline, which transports crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export, has been attacked. The newspaper cited two sources familiar with the incident, who said that a pumping station along the pipeline was struck around 1:00 p.m. local time today. The pipeline has become an absolutely crucial economic asset for the kingdom (and the world) amid disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

One source said the facility was targeted by a drone, and officials are currently assessing the extent of the damage.

SAUDI ARABIA’S VITAL EAST-WEST OIL PIPELINE CARRYING CRUDE FROM THE GULF TO THE RED SEA FOR EXPORT HAS BEEN ATTACKED – FT

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 8, 2026

The nuclear issue

At this point, Iranian officials have not fully confirmed all details of the reported agreement, so the status of the nuclear issue is unclear.

Iranian state media reports that the 10-point plan also requires Washington to accept its uranium enrichment program, a previous red line for the Trump administration, and one of the main reasons for the U.S. military operation in the first instance.

On his Truth Social platform on Wednesday afternoon, Trump said he had rejected the Iranian demand for the right to enrich uranium.

He said the United States would “work closely” with Iran but “there will be no enrichment of uranium.”

Trump has also claimed that the United States will assist in recovering enriched uranium, at least some of which was buried during Operation Midnight Hammer airstrikes last summer. On Truth Social, he wrote:

“The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear ‘Dust.’ It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack.”

BREAKING: Trump:

The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change!

There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply… pic.twitter.com/mxzXJhUAHu

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 8, 2026

Speaking today, Hegseth said that Iran will give the United States its enriched uranium or else the U.S. will “take it out.”

Hegseth on Iran’s buried enriched uranium:

They will either give it to us, as the President has laid out — they’ll give it to us voluntarily — or we’ll get it.

We’ll take it. We’ll take it out.

Or, if we have to do something else ourselves, like we did in Operation Midnight… pic.twitter.com/JFhfX2YEpa

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 8, 2026

Subsequently, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Iran has indicated it will turn over its stocks of enriched uranium.

(Reuters) – Iran has indicated it would turn over its stocks of enriched uranium, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 8, 2026

The status of the Strait of Hormuz

Some of the first ships to sail through the strait since the ceasefire announcement have already been detected, according to tracking data analyst MarineTraffic.

In a post on X, MarineTraffic wrote:

“Early signs of vessel activity are emerging in the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire announcement, which includes a temporary reopening of the strategic waterway to allow for negotiations. According to MarineTraffic data, hundreds of vessels remain in the region, including 426 tankers, 34 LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) carriers, and 19 LNG (liquefied natural gas) vessels, many of which had been effectively stranded during the disruption.”

Vessel movements resume in the Strait of Hormuz following ceasefire announcement

Early signs of vessel activity are emerging in the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire announcement, which includes a temporary reopening of the strategic waterway to allow for negotiations.… pic.twitter.com/CSy6PZlCJ4

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) April 8, 2026

Subsequently, French global marine data tracker AXSMarine reported that 10 ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz so far today, four of which are Iranian.

📰 The US–Iran ceasefire comes amid notable shipping developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Under the reported terms of the agreement, passage through the strait is to be permitted for a two-week period, in coordination with Iran’s armed forces.

📈 Over the past seven days, a… pic.twitter.com/Y7SWNaMvqG

— AXSMarine (@AXSMarine) April 8, 2026

During peacetime, the straits saw between 50 and 100 ships passing in each direction daily.

Iran’s foreign minister said that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed for the next two weeks under Iranian military management.

Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the Financial Times today that Iran wanted to collect tolling fees from any tanker passing and to assess each ship.

“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” said Hosseini, whose industry association works closely with the state. “Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush,” he added.

Iran has stated a tariff of $1 per barrel of oil, to be paid in cryptocurrency, adding that empty tankers can pass freely.

FT: Iran will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union said the tariff is $1 per barrel of oil.

— Annmarie Hordern (@annmarie) April 8, 2026

Trump today said he is considering the formation of a “joint venture” with Iran to set up tolls in the strait. This may well be related to Trump’s announcement that the United States will be “helping with the traffic buildup” in the strait, although no further details were provided.

There are also reports that the Iranian Navy said today it will destroy ships attempting to pass through the strait without Tehran’s permission, adding that transit through the waterway remains shut.

“Any vessel trying to travel into the sea … will be targeted and destroyed…” the reported message said.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday there was still a lot of work to do to reopen the strait, speaking during a visit to Saudi Arabia. “We now … have a ceasefire, but there’s a lot of work to do, as you will appreciate, a lot of work to make sure that that ceasefire becomes permanent and brings about the peace that we all want to see,” Starmer said. “But also a lot of work to do in relation to the Strait of Hormuz, which has an impact everywhere across the world.”

‘It is very important that we get the Strait of Hormuz open’.

Keir Starmer is in Saudi Arabia for talks with Gulf allies.

The UK’s prime minister says that there is “still a lot of work to do” to reopen the oil and gas shipping route.https://t.co/hzCXe9ayiw pic.twitter.com/iSyyes24Gs

— Sky News (@SkyNews) April 8, 2026

In a statement today, the Iranian news agency FARS said that the strait will remain blocked as long as Israel attacks Lebanon, suggesting a nother possbile point of friction in the ceasefire.

Iran state media FARS posted to Telegram. While two tankers transited this morning, they will block strait as long as Israel attacks Lebanon.

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) April 8, 2026

Regardless of tolls and continued coercion, it is highly unlikely that energy prices will spring back to their pre-war levels any time soon. Despite the agreement on access to the strait, shipowners will probably remain cautious about re-entering the region when any resumption of hostilities could result in the loss of vessels or crew.

Overall, it will require a lasting ceasefire before there is more confidence in the oil market.

What will happen in Lebanon?

The White House says that Israel agreed to the ceasefire, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it does not include Lebanon, where Israel continues to launch assaults and airstrikes in response to rocket fire by Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

“We will continue striking the Hezbollah terror organization and will utilize every operational opportunity. We will not compromise the security of the residents of northern Israel. We will continue to strike with determination.”

— IDF Chief of the General Staff LTG Eyal Zamir… pic.twitter.com/h1ZWPftRWz

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) April 8, 2026

The Pakistani prime minister, Shebaz Sharif, had previously said the ceasefire extended over Lebanon, something that Trump refuted.

Trump on Lebanon:

Because of Hezbollah. They were not included in the deal. That’ll get taken care of too. It’s alright.

Source: PBS News

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 8, 2026

This was underscored by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launching what it says is the largest wave of strikes across Lebanon since the current conflict began. The IDF claims it attacked 100 command centres and military infrastructure targets belonging to Hezbollah in 10 minutes.

‼️ In 10 minutes, the IDF completed the largest coordinated strike across Lebanon since the start of Operation Roaring Lion.

The strike targeted 100+ Hezbollah headquarters, military arrays, & command-and-control centers in Beirut, Beqaa and southern Lebanon, including:

•…

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) April 8, 2026

“The IDF carried out a surprise strike on hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists at command centres across Lebanon. This is the largest concentrated blow Hezbollah has suffered since Operation Beepers,” Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz said in a video statement, referring to the 2024 operation against Hezbollah involving explosive pagers.

There is also a possibility that the continued Israeli campaign directed against Hezbollah could also draw Iran back into the conflict. Al Jazeera reports that a senior Iranian official told them that Iran “will punish Israel in response to the crime it committed in Lebanon,” which Tehran views as a violation of the ceasefire conditions.

Iran is preparing “operations” against Israeli targets in response to the ceasefire violations in Lebanon -Iranian state outlet Fars pic.twitter.com/1iyoCwZ1st

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 8, 2026

What about peace talks?

Iranian state media said negotiations with the United States will be held in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital. Iran wants to see the details of a long-term peace agreement finalized, with the aim of “confirming Iran’s battlefield achievements.”

Talks are supposed to begin on Friday, April 10, but could be extended. This morning, Washington had yet to publicly accept an invitation to the talks, but Trump today told the New York Post that in-person talks with Iran will happen very soon.

(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said in-person talks with Iran will happen “very soon”, the New York Post reported Wednesday.

In an interview with the Post, Trump said Vice President JD Vance might not attend the talks due to security concerns.

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 8, 2026

Today, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to X to condemn reported violations of the ceasefire at a “few places across the conflict zone, which undermine the spirit of the peace process.”

Violations of ceasefire have been reported at few places across the conflict zone which undermine the spirit of peace process. I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a…

— Shehbaz Sharif (@CMShehbaz) April 8, 2026

“I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards a peaceful settlement of the conflict,” he added.

Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif:

Violations of ceasefire have been reported at few places across the conflict zone which undermine the spirit of peace process.

I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed… pic.twitter.com/mosd8qaLWI

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 8, 2026

This afternoon, the White House confirmed that JD Vance, plus Middle East envoys, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff, would lead the U.S. negotiating team in Pakistan.

Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner will lead the U.S. negotiating team in Pakistan for Iran talks starting Saturday -White House

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 8, 2026

Has there been regime change?

Another early aim for Trump and Netanyahu when the war began was regime change in Iran.

While Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders have been killed, the degree to which the political landscape in Iran has actually changed is highly questionable.

Trump has repeatedly said that the new Iranian leadership is much more open to negotiation, but it remains the case that the new regime is essentially now centred around a hardline group dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Such an outcome is what we warned about prior to the conflict beginning.

There is also a question about the condition of the new Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Hegseth said again today that he is “wounded and disfigured,” presumably in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes.

Can Iran rearm?

The Iranian military was already reeling under the effects of years of sanctions and previous military operations directed against it by Israel and the United States.

Clearly, its capabilities have been severely degraded by the intense U.S./Israeli airstrikes over the last few weeks.

Efforts to rearm will be blocked by the United States, with Trump declaring that any country supplying weapons to Iran will be “immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50 percent, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions!”

TRUMP ON IRAN: A COUNTRY SUPPLYING MILITARY WEAPONS TO IRAN WILL BE IMMEDIATELY TARIFFED, ON ANY AND ALL GOODS SOLD TO UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 50%, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY

TRUMP ON IRAN-RELATED TARIFFS: NO EXCLUSIONS OR EXEMPTIONS

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 8, 2026

This is largely focused on the idea that a major player like China could execute a strategic partnership with wounded Iran in exchange for a part of the country’s oil reserves or at least a steadier supply of energy at a deeply discounted rate. This would also extend Beijing’s ability to wield power throughout the region, and especially over and around the critical Strait of Hormuz. The idea of the spigot being turned off for a prolonged period of time from this region is all too real now, and China’s demand for energy imports is very high.

Russia, to a lesser degree, could step in as well, but for different reasons, although it is not in a position to provide Iran with all the armament it needs as the war in Ukraine rages on. Still, Trump’s 50 percent tariffs would have far less of an impact on Russia than on China.

Iran’s manufacturing base has been largely destroyed, according to the IDF and Pentagon, which will make reconstituting its military capabilities with internal armaments much more challenging, at least in the near term.

The ability of Tehran to support its proxies abroad has also been severely impacted by this conflict. This is on top of years of those forces being targeted by Israel and the United States. Even Iran’s airlift capacity has been heavily impacted, with aircraft used to support its nefarious operations abroad being destroyed.

At the same time, reports as of last week suggested that the Trump administration may well have overestimated the losses inflicted on the Iranian military.

According to a report last week from CNN, which it says was based on recent U.S. intelligence assessments, roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers were still intact, and thousands of one-way attack drones remained in its arsenal.

“They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region,” one source told CNN.

Also, Iran’s military personnel and internal security forces have lost some facilities and a limited number of people, but they remain largely intact.

What next for U.S. power in the Middle East?

Perhaps the question hardest to answer is how the war with Iran will affect U.S. influence in the Middle East.

Putting aside the more bombastic statements of victory from Iran, it is true to say that, while the Trump administration projected unmatched military power in Operation Epic Fury, its strategic effectiveness was more limited. This is something that has been picked up in Israel, too, with the outcome slammed by Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid.

Israeli opposition leader calls Trump’s ceasefire deal with Iran the greatest “political disaster” in Israel’s history. https://t.co/XswOuag9Zn

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) April 8, 2026

Iran’s military — and civilian populace — suffered very heavy blows under sustained U.S. and Israeli attacks, but Tehran also maintained control of the Strait of Hormuz and continued to hit back with drone and missile strikes across the Gulf, and even exacted a toll on U.S. military assets.

(Reuters) – Iranian authorities see the truce with the United States and Israel as a strategic victory, but they emerge battered and isolated with an economy in tatters, little prospect of rapid recovery and an impoverished, embittered population.

After weeks of U.S. and Israeli…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 8, 2026

Ultimately, Washington was reluctant to deploy ground troops, which would have driven casualty numbers up much higher, but overall, key rivals such as China and Russia may view the conflict as evidence of declining U.S. military power.

During the conflict, Trump threatened to walk away from NATO and slammed most of its major allies around the globe for not coming to help the U.S. and its cause. This sent a shockwave through its alliances. Trump’s deadline threat of total war was also unprecedented and will have a lasting impact, regardless of whether it was just a negotiating tactic or not.

The U.S. has also worn down its arsenal of advanced weaponry even further in a very public manner. This is especially true for air defense capabilities. China is watching this and all other aspects of the operation regarding its future designs on Taiwan.

Meanwhile, the relationship between the U.S. and its allies in the Arabian Peninsula appears to have been strengthened, and those countries will likely see major changes in the force posture of their militaries and their capabilities from lessons learned during the war. But still, this could change based on the long-term outcome of this war.

Overall, it remains to be seen how America’s reputation will be seen after the war, and what kind of effect it will have on alliances in the region and beyond.

At the same time, Iran’s economy is in critical condition. The country has been bombed thousands of times over the last month. Its leadership has been patched together, and regardless of conflicting estimates of what systems remain intact, its military is a shell of its previous self, which wasn’t in great shape to begin with.

While the regime survived the fighting, how it will be able to navigate a positive future for the country and its citizens, many of whom wanted the regime to fall prior to this war, remains to be seen. Meanwhile, there are still very well-armed, fanatical forces that hold major sway in the country, specifically the hardline IRGC. As we stated before the war began, the regime would be more likely to fall to it than a foreign power or the masses.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Ecuador has recalled its ambassador from Colombia over remarks related to a high-profile criminal case that has stirred tensions across Latin America.

The case in question is that of former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas, a left-wing figure currently serving a lengthy prison sentence for corruption.

This week marks the two-year anniversary of a controversial police raid that saw Ecuadorian authorities storm the Mexican embassy in Quito to arrest Glas, who had sought asylum in the diplomatic facility.

But the right-wing government of Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, which authorised the raid, has denounced criticisms of the Glas case as a violation of his country’s sovereignty.

Wednesday’s decision to recall Ambassador Arturo Felix Wong from Bogota is the latest sign of cross-border strife with Ecuador’s neighbour, Colombia, and its left-wing President Gustavo Petro.

In a local radio interview on Wednesday, Ecuador’s Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld confirmed that her country’s ambassador to Colombia had been recalled.

The criticisms of the Glas case, she added, were uncalled for. “It’s clearly a provocation because these kinds of messages come out of nowhere,” she said.

Her remarks echoed those of Noboa himself, who has led a months-long feud with the Colombian government.

“This country has waited years to see the corrupt answer to justice,” Noboa said in a social media message on Tuesday.

He denounced critics, like Petro, who consider Glas to be a “political prisoner” and warned that he considered such rhetoric to be a form of foreign interference.

“I wish to be emphatic: This constitutes an assault on our sovereignty and a violation of the principle of non-intervention,” Noboa said.

His statement appeared to be prompted by a series of social media posts Petro wrote on the anniversary of the Mexican embassy raid, which took place on April 5, 2024.

That episode resulted in Mexico breaking its diplomatic relations with Ecuador, a rupture that endures to this day.

Critics called the raid a violation of international law. Treaties like the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations protect embassies and consulates from military and law enforcement actions without prior consent.

Glas had been sheltering in the Mexican embassy since December 2023, claiming he was facing political persecution in Ecuador.

After the raid, he was sentenced to an additional 13 years in prison for the misuse of public funds, in addition to prison terms for two prior corruption cases.

Glas was one of several politicians who were convicted as part of the Odebrecht scandal, which saw government officials across Latin America accused of taking bribes in exchange for issuing favourable contracts to certain business interests.

In 2017, Glas was sentenced to six years in prison for allegedly accepting bribes worth $13.5m, and in 2020, he faced an additional eight-year sentence. He has been barred from ever holding public office again.

Last September, Colombia granted citizenship to Glas. President Petro then called for Glas to be transferred into Colombian custody. He reprised that request in a social media post on Monday.

“I called for there to be no political prisoners in any country in the Americas. It is undeniable that Jorge Glas is a political prisoner,” Petro wrote in the first of two posts on the subject.

In the second, published the next day, Petro raised concerns about Glas’s health and wellbeing. The former vice president is serving his sentence in a maximum-security prison in Ecuador, El Encuentro.

“Jorge Glas is a Colombian citizen, and he is a political prisoner,” Petro said.

“I call upon international human rights organisations to safeguard his rights. His health condition now poses a threat to his life; due to his imprisonment, he has not received adequate sustenance and is currently suffering from severe malnutrition and muscle mass loss.”

Petro added that “allowing a person to starve to death” would constitute a “crime against humanity”.

The heated rhetoric between Petro and Noboa is part of a long-running spat between the two leaders.

Since March alone, Noboa has slapped Colombia with 50-percent tariffs, based on accusations it has been too lax in its fight against drug trafficking.

Petro, meanwhile, has accused Noboa of carrying out a bombing campaign near the Colombian border, resulting in the recovery of 27 charred bodies.

Noboa has been leading an aggressive, military-led anti-narcotics campaign with the support of United States President Donald Trump, who has similarly criticised left-wing governments like Petro’s for failing to tamp down on drug trafficking.

Noboa and Trump have grown close since the US president was sworn in for a second term in January 2025, and Ecuador’s policies towards regional governments and drug-trafficking have echoed those of the US.

Memorial was co-winner of 2022 Peace Prize for its work in documenting human rights abuses in Russia.

The committee that awards the Nobel Peace Prize has condemned attempts by Moscow to designate the human rights group and Peace Prize laureate Memorial as an “extremist organisation”.

The chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, Jorgen Watne Frydnes, said in a statement on Wednesday that it was “deeply alarmed by the Russian authorities’ latest attempts to destroy Memorial – a co-recipient of the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize – by seeking to designate [it] as an extremist organisation”.

The statement was issued as Russia’s Supreme Court is expected to examine a petition from the Ministry of Justice on Thursday to add Memorial to Russia’s list of “undesirable” entities.

The designation would ban the organisation from operating in Russia, with those affiliated with it could face up to four years in prison and fines.

Memorial has already been declared a “foreign agent”, and the Supreme Court ordered it dissolved in Russia at the end of 2021.

Frydnes stressed that if the latest petition by the Justice Ministry is upheld, “all activities of Memorial will be criminalised. Anyone taking part in, or funding, Memorial’s work – or even sharing its published materials – will risk imprisonment.”

“To designate such an organisation as extremist is an affront to the fundamental values of human dignity and freedom of expression,” he added.

The committee called “on the Russian authorities to immediately withdraw this claim and to cease all harassment of Memorial and its members”.

Memorial won the Nobel Peace Prize with the Ukrainian human rights organisation Centre for Civil Liberties and Ales Bialiatski, who has worked to promote democracy and human rights in Belarus. Memorial, established in 1987, focuses on documenting human rights abuses in Russia.

Before it was banned in Russia, Memorial formed a network of about 50 organisations across Russia and outside its borders. Some of its constituents based in Germany, France and Italy continue to operate.

Several Russian Memorial leaders have been subjected to criminal proceedings – including Oleg Orlov, who was freed in a prisoner exchange in 2024 after being imprisoned for speaking out against the Ukraine war – are now working outside Russia to continue documenting human rights abuses.